Search results for: scenarios

Authors: Xingxing Peng

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With the development of society, there are more and more online communication scenarios such as teleconference and online education. In the process of conference communication, the quality of voice communication is a very important part, and noise may cause the communication effect of participants to be greatly reduced. Therefore, voice noise reduction has an important impact on scenarios such as voice calls. This research focuses on the key technologies of the sound transmission process. The purpose is to maintain the audio quality to the maximum so that the listener can hear clearer and smoother sound. Firstly, to solve the problem that the traditional speech enhancement algorithm is not ideal when dealing with non-stationary noise, an adaptive speech noise reduction algorithm is studied in this paper. Traditional noise estimation methods are mainly used to deal with stationary noise. In this chapter, we study the spectral characteristics of different noise types, especially the characteristics of non-stationary Burst noise, and design a noise estimator module to deal with non-stationary noise. Noise features are extracted from non-speech segments, and the noise estimation module is adjusted in real time according to different noise characteristics. This adaptive algorithm can enhance speech according to different noise characteristics, improve the performance of traditional algorithms to deal with non-stationary noise, so as to achieve better enhancement effect. The experimental results show that the algorithm proposed in this chapter is effective and can better adapt to different types of noise, so as to obtain better speech enhancement effect.

Keywords: speech noise reduction, speech enhancement, self-adaptation, Wiener filter algorithm

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Authors: S. K. Kakraliya, H. S. Jat, Manish Kakraliya, P. C. Sharma, M. L. Jat

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The biggest challenge in agriculture is to produce more food for the continually increasing world population with in the limited land and water resources. Serious water deficits and reducing natural resources are some of the major threats to the agricultural sustainability in many regions of South Asia. Food and water security may be gained by bringing improvement in the crop water productivity and the amount produced per unit of water consumed. Improvement in the crop water productivity may be achieved by pursuing alternative modern agronomics approaches, which are more friendly and efficient in utilizing natural resources. Therefore, a research trial on conservation agriculture (CA) and precision water management (PWM) was conducted in 2018-19 at Karnal, India to evaluate the effect on crop productivity and irrigation in sodic soils under rice-wheat (RW) systems of Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP). Eight scenarios were compared varied in the tillage, crop establishment, residue and irrigarion management i.e., {First four scenarios irrigated with flood irrigation method;Sc1-Conventional tillage (CT) without residue, Sc2-CT with residue, Sc3- Zero tillage (ZT) without residue, Sc4-ZT with residue}, and {last four scenarios irrigated with sub-surface drip irrigation method; Sc5-ZT without residue, Sc6- ZT with residue, Sc7-ZT inclusion legume without residue and Sc8- ZT inclusion legume with residue}. Results revealed that CA-flood irrigation (S3, Sc4) and CA-PWM system (Sc5, Sc6, Sc7 and Sc8) recorded about ~5% and ~15% higher wheat yield, respectively compared to Sc1. Similar, CA-PWM saved ~40% irrigation water compared to Sc1. Rice yield was not different under different scenarios in the first year (kharif 2019) but almost half irrigation water saved under CA-PWM system. Therefore, results of our study on modern agronomic practices including CA and precision water management (subsurface drip irrigation) for RW rotation would be addressed the existing and future challenges in the RW system.

Keywords: Sub-surface drip, Crop residue, Crop yield , Zero tillage

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Authors: Kathleen Frances Haigh, Mieke Nieder-Heitmann, Somayeh Farzad, Mohsen Ali Mandegari, Johann Ferdinand Gorgens

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Lignocellulose can be converted to a range of biochemicals and biofuels. Where this is derived from agricultural waste, issues of competition with food are virtually eliminated. One such source of lignocellulose is the South African sugar industry. Lignocellulose could be accessed by changes to the current farming practices and investments in more efficient boilers. The South African sugar industry is struggling due to falling sugar prices and increasing costs and it is proposed that annexing a biorefinery to a sugar mill will broaden the product range and improve viability. Process simulations of the selected chemicals were generated using Aspen Plus®. It was envisaged that a biorefinery would be annexed to a typical South African sugar mill. Bagasse would be diverted from the existing boilers to the biorefinery and mixed with harvest residues. This biomass would provide the feedstock for the biorefinery and the process energy for the biorefinery and sugar mill. Thus, in all scenarios a portion of the biomass was diverted to a new efficient combined heat and power plant (CHP). The Aspen Plus® simulations provided the mass and energy balance data to carry out an economic assessment of each scenarios. The net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR) and minimum selling price (MSP) was calculated for each scenario. As a starting point scenarios were generated to investigate the production of ethanol, ethanol and lactic acid, ethanol and furfural, butanol, methanol, and Fischer-Tropsch syncrude. The bypass to the CHP plant is a useful indicator of the energy demands of the chemical processes. An iterative approach was used to identify a suitable bypass because increasing this value had the combined effect of increasing the amount of energy available and reducing the capacity of the chemical plant. Bypass values ranged from 30% for syncrude production to 50% for combined ethanol and furfural production. A hurdle rate of 15.7% was selected for the IRR. The butanol, combined ethanol and furfural, or the Fischer-Tropsch syncrude scenarios are unsuitable for investment with IRRs of 4.8%, 7.5% and 11.5% respectively. This provides valuable insights into research opportunities. For example furfural from sugarcane bagasse is an established process although the integration of furfural production with ethanol is less well understood. The IRR for the ethanol scenario was 14.7%, which is below the investment criteria, but given the technological maturity it may still be considered for investment. The scenarios which met the investment criteria were the combined ethanol and lactic acid, and the methanol scenarios with IRRs of 20.5% and 16.7%, respectively. These assessments show that the production of biochemicals from lignocellulose can be commercially viable. In addition, this assessment have provided valuable insights for research to improve the commercial viability of additional chemicals and scenarios. This has led to further assessments of the production of itaconic acid, succinic acid, citric acid, xylitol, polyhydroxybutyrate, polyethylene, glucaric acid and glutamic acid.

Keywords: biorefineries, sugar mill, methanol, ethanol

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Authors: T. Tommasi, E. Batuecas, G. Mancini, G. Saracco, D. Fino

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Extra virgin olive-oil (EVO) production is an important economic activity for several countries, especially in the Mediterranean area such as Spain, Italy, Greece and Tunisia. The two major by-products from olive oil production, solid-liquid Olive Pomace (OP) and the Olive Mill Waste Waters (OMWW), are still mainly disposed on soil, in spite of the existence of legislation which already limits this practice. The present study compares the environmental impacts associated with two different scenarios for the management of waste from olive oil production through a comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The two alternative scenarios are: (I) Anaerobic Digestion and (II) current Disposal on soil. The analysis was performed through SimaPro software and the assessment of the impact categories was based on International Life Cycle Data and Cumulative Energy Demand methods. Both the scenarios are mostly related to the cultivation and harvesting phase and are highly dependent on the irrigation practice and related energy demand. Results from the present study clearly show that as the waste disposal on soil causes the worst environmental performance of all the impact categories here considered. Important environmental benefits have been identified when anaerobic digestion is instead chosen as the final treatment. It was consequently demonstrated that anaerobic digestion should be considered a feasible alternative for olive mills, to produce biogas from common olive oil residues, reducing the environmental burden and adding value to the olive oil production chain.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, waste management, agro-food waste, biogas

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Authors: Mohd Zamri Che Wanik

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This paper presents the management of the Fault Ride Through event within a Solar Farm during a grid fault. The modeling and simulation of a photovoltaic (PV) with battery energy storage connected to the power network will be described. The modeling approach and the study analysis performed are described. The model and operation scenarios are simulated using a digital simulator for different scenarios. The dynamic response of the system when subjected to sudden self-clearance temporary fault is presented. The capability of the PV system and battery storage riding through the power system fault and, at the same time, supporting the local grid by injecting fault current is demonstrated. For each case, the different control methods to achieve the objective of supporting the grid according to grid code requirements are presented and explained. The inverter modeling approach is presented and described.

Keywords: faut ride through, solar farm, grid code, power network

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Authors: Freddy Houndekindo

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A study was carried out to evaluate the flood risk in the district of Malanville located along the Niger River. The knowledge produce by this study is useful in the implementation of adaptation and/or mitigation measures to alleviate the impact of the flooding on the populations, the economy and the environment. Over the course of the study, the lack of data in the area of interest has been one of the main challenges encountered. Therefore, in the analysis of the flood hazard different sources of remotely sensed data were used. Moreover, the flood hazard was analysed by applying a 1D hydraulic model: HEC-RAS. After setting up the model for the study area, the different flood scenarios considered were simulated and mapped using ArcGIS and the HEC-GEORAS extension. The result of the simulation gave information about the inundated areas and the water depths at each location. From the analysis of the flood hazard, it was found that between 47% and 50% of the total area of the district of Malanville would be flooded in the different flood scenarios considered, and the water depth varies between 1 and 7 m. The townships of Malanville most at risk of flooding are Momkassa and Galiel, located in a high-risk and very high-risk zone, respectively. Furthermore, the assessment of the flood risk showed that the most vulnerable sector to the inundations is the agricultural sector. Indeed, the cultivated floodplains were the most affected areas by the floodwater in every flood scenarios. Knowing that a high proportion of the population of the district relies on their farmlands in these floodplains for their livelihood, the floods pose a challenge not only to the food security in the area but also to its development.

Keywords: flood risk management, Niger, remote sensing, vulnerability

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Authors: Abdullah M. Alzahrani, Abdel Halim Boussabaine

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There is an international consensus on the climate change in the entire world and this is as a result of the combination of the natural factors, such as volcanoes and hurricanes with increased of human activity on the earth, such as industrial renaissance. Where this solidarity increases emissions of greenhouse gases GHGs that considered as the main driver of climate change scenarios and related emerging risks and impacts on buildings. These climatic risks including damages, disruption and disquiet are set to increase and it is considered as the main challenges and difficulties facing built environment due to major implications on assets sector. Consequently, the threat from climate change patterns has a significant impact on a variety of complex human decisions, which affect all aspects of living. Understanding the relationship between buildings and such risks arising from climate change scenarios on buildings are the key in insuring the optimal timing and design of policies and systems, which affect all aspects of the built environment. This paper will uncovering this correlation between emerging climate change risks and the building assets. In addition, how these emerging risks can be classified in practical way in terms of their impact type on buildings. Hence, this mapping will assist professionals and interested parties in the building sector to cope with such risks in several systematic ways including development and designing of mitigation and adaptation strategies and processes of design, specification, construction, and operation; all these leads to successful management of assets.

Keywords: climate change, climate change risks, built environment, building sector, impacts

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Authors: S. Schröder, P. Ennen, T. Langer, S. Müller, M. Shehadeh, M. Haberstroh, F. Hees

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Since a bit over a year ago, Festo AG and Co. KG, Festo Didactic SE, robomotion GmbH, the researchers of the Cybernetics-Lab IMA/ZLW and IfU, as well as the Human-Computer Interaction Center at the RWTH Aachen University, have been working together in the focal point of assembly competences to realize different scenarios in the field of human-machine interaction (HMI). In the framework of project ARIZ, questions concerning the future of production within the fourth industrial revolution are dealt with. There are many perspectives of human-robot collaboration that consist Industry 4.0 on an individual, organization and enterprise level, and these will be addressed in ARIZ. The aim of the ARIZ projects is to link AI-Approaches to assembly problems and to implement them as prototypes in demonstrators. To do so, island and flow based production scenarios will be simulated and realized as prototypes. These prototypes will serve as applications of flexible robotics as well as AI-based planning and control of production process. Using the demonstrators, human interaction strategies will be examined with an information system on one hand, and a robotic system on the other. During the tests, prototypes of workspaces that illustrate prospective production work forms will be represented. The human being will remain a central element in future productions and will increasingly be in charge of managerial tasks. Questions thus arise within the overall perspective, primarily concerning the role of humans within these technological revolutions, as well as their ability to act and design respectively to the acceptance of such systems. Roles, such as the 'Trainer' of intelligent systems may become a possibility in such assembly scenarios.

Keywords: human-machine interaction, information technology, island based production, assembly competences

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Authors: Ali Heydarimoghim

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In this paper, the optimal placement of charging and discharging stations is done to determine the location and capacity of the stations, reducing the cost of electric vehicle owners' losses, reducing the cost of distribution system losses, and reducing the costs associated with the stations. Also, observing the permissible limits of the bus voltage and the capacity of the stations and their distance are considered as constraints of the problem. Given the traffic situation in different areas of a city, we estimate the amount of energy required to charge and the amount of energy provided to discharge electric vehicles in each area. We then introduce the electricity distribution system of the city in question. Following are the scenarios for introducing the problem and introducing the objective and constraint functions. Finally, the simulation results for different scenarios are compared.

Keywords: charging & discharging stations, hybrid vehicles, optimization, replacement

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Authors: Kunal Shah, Swati Patel

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Many real world problems involve data which can be considered as multi-label data streams. Efficient methods exist for multi-label classification in non streaming scenarios. However, learning in evolving streaming scenarios is more challenging, as the learners must be able to adapt to change using limited time and memory. Classification is used to predict class of unseen instance as accurate as possible. Multi label classification is a variant of single label classification where set of labels associated with single instance. Multi label classification is used by modern applications, such as text classification, functional genomics, image classification, music categorization etc. This paper introduces the task of multi-label classification, methods for multi-label classification and evolution measure for multi-label classification. Also, comparative analysis of multi label classification methods on the basis of theoretical study, and then on the basis of simulation was done on various data sets.

Keywords: binary relevance, concept drift, data stream mining, MLSC, multiple window with buffer

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Authors: Maria Fatima Almeida, Rodrigo Calili, George Soares, João Krause, Myrthes Marcele Dos Santos, Anna Carolina Suzano E. Silva, Marcos Alexandre Da

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In Brazil, the building sector accounts for 1/6 of energy consumption and 50% of electricity consumption. A complex sector with several driving actors plays an essential role in the country's economy. Currently, the digitalization readiness in this sector is still low, mainly due to the high investment costs and the difficulty of estimating the benefits of digital technologies in buildings. Nevertheless, the potential contribution of digitalization for increasing energy efficiency in the building sector in Brazil has been pointed out as relevant in the political and sectoral contexts, both in the medium and long-term horizons. To contribute to the debate on the possible evolving trajectories of digitalization in the building sector in Brazil and to subsidize the formulation or revision of current public policies and managerial decisions, three future scenarios were created to anticipate the potential energy efficiency in the building sector in Brazil due to digitalization by 2050. This work aims to present these scenarios as a basis to foresight the potential energy efficiency in this sector, according to different digitalization paces - slow, moderate, or fast in the 2050 horizon. A methodological approach was proposed to create alternative prospective scenarios, combining the Global Business Network (GBN) and the Laboratory for Investigation in Prospective Strategy and Organisation (LIPSOR) methods. This approach consists of seven steps: (i) definition of the question to be foresighted and time horizon to be considered (2050); (ii) definition and classification of a set of key variables, using the prospective structural analysis; (iii) identification of the main actors with an active role in the digital and energy spheres; (iv) characterization of the current situation (2021) and identification of main uncertainties that were considered critical in the development of alternative future scenarios; (v) scanning possible futures using morphological analysis; (vi) selection and description of the most likely scenarios; (vii) foresighting the potential energy efficiency in each of the three scenarios, namely slow digitalization; moderate digitalization, and fast digitalization. Each scenario begins with a core logic and then encompasses potentially related elements, including potential energy efficiency. Then, the first scenario refers to digitalization at a slow pace, with induction by the government limited to public buildings. In the second scenario, digitalization is implemented at a moderate pace, induced by the government in public, commercial, and service buildings, through regulation integrating digitalization and energy efficiency mechanisms. Finally, in the third scenario, digitalization in the building sector is implemented at a fast pace in the country and is strongly induced by the government, but with broad participation of private investments and accelerated adoption of digital technologies. As a result of the slow pace of digitalization in the sector, the potential for energy efficiency stands at levels below 10% of the total of 161TWh by 2050. In the moderate digitalization scenario, the potential reaches 20 to 30% of the total 161TWh by 2050. Furthermore, in the rapid digitalization scenario, it will reach 30 to 40% of the total 161TWh by 2050.

Keywords: building digitalization, energy efficiency, scenario building, prospective structural analysis, morphological analysis

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Authors: Zane Bulderberga

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Spatial dimension in development planning is becoming more topical in 21st century as a result of changes in population structure. Sustainable spatial development focuses on identifying and using territorial advantages to foster the harmonized development of the entire country, reducing negative effects of population concentration, increasing availability and mobility. EU and national development planning documents state polycentrism as main tool for balance spatial development, including investment concentration in growth centres. If mutual cooperation of growth centres as well as urban-rural cooperation is not fostered, then territorial differences can deepen and create unbalanced development. The aim of research: to evaluate the urban-rural interaction, elaborating spatial development scenarios in framework of Latvian regional policy. To perform the research monographic, comparison, abstract-logical method, synthesis and analysis will be used when studying the theoretical aspects of research aiming at collecting the ideas of scientists from different countries, concepts, regulations as well as to create meaningful scientific discussion. Hierarchy analysis process (AHP) will be used to state further scenarios of spatial development in Latvia. Experts from various institutions recognized urban-rural interaction and co-operation as an essential tool for the development. The most important factors for balanced spatial development in Latvia are availability of public transportation and improvement of service availability. Evaluating the three alternative scenarios, it was concluded that the urban-rural partnership will ensure a balanced development in Latvian regions.

Keywords: rural-urban interaction, rural-urban cooperation, spatial development, AHP

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Authors: Jiun-Horng Tsai, Shi-Jie, Nieh

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Fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) has become an important issue all over the world over the last decade. Annual mean PM₂.₅ concentration has been over the ambient air quality standard of PM₂.₅ (annual average concentration as 15μg/m³) which adapted by Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (TEPA). TEPA, therefore, has developed a number of air pollution control measures to improve the ambient concentration by reducing the emissions of primary fine particulate matter and the precursors of secondary PM₂.₅. This study investigated the potential improvement of ambient PM₂.₅ concentration by the TEPA program and the other scenario for further emission reduction on various sources. Four scenarios had been evaluated in this study, including a basic case and three reduction scenarios (A to C). The ambient PM₂.₅ concentration was evaluated by Community Multi-scale Air Quality modelling system (CMAQ) ver. 4.7.1 along with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) ver. 3.4.1. The grid resolutions in the modelling work are 81 km × 81 km for domain 1 (covers East Asia), 27 km × 27 km for domain 2 (covers Southeast China and Taiwan), and 9 km × 9 km for domain 3 (covers Taiwan). The result of PM₂.₅ concentration simulation in different regions of Taiwan shows that the annual average concentration of basic case is 24.9 μg/m³, and are 22.6, 18.8, and 11.3 μg/m³, respectively, for scenarios A to C. The annual average concentration of PM₂.₅ would be reduced by 9-55 % for those control scenarios. The result of scenario C (the emissions of precursors reduce to allowance levels) could improve effectively the airborne PM₂.₅ concentration to attain the air quality standard. According to the results of unit precursor reduction contribution, the allowance emissions of PM₂.₅, SOₓ, and NOₓ are 16.8, 39, and 62 thousand tons per year, respectively. In the Kao-Ping air basin, the priority for reducing precursor emissions is PM₂.₅ > NOₓ > SOₓ, whereas the priority for reducing precursor emissions is PM₂.₅ > SOₓ > NOₓ in others area. The result indicates that the target pollutants that need to be reduced in different air basin are different, and the control measures need to be adapted to local conditions.

Keywords: airborne PM₂.₅, community multi-scale air quality modelling system, control measures, weather research and forecasting model

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Authors: Chiara Cesali

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The effects of climate change are increasingly evident: increases in temperature (i.e. global warming), greater frequency of extreme weather events, i.e. storms, floods, which often affect transport infrastructures. Large-scale climatological models with long-term horizons (up to 2100) show the possibility of significant increases in precipitation in the future, according to the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from IPCC. Consequently, the insufficiency of existing hydraulic works (i.e. bridges, culverts, drainage systems) may be more frequent, or those currently being designed may become insufficient in the future. Thus, the hydraulic design methods of transport infrastructure must begin to take into account the influence of climate change. To this purpose, criteria for applying to the hydraulic design of a railway infrastructure some of the approaches currently available for determining design rainfall intensity and/or peak discharge flow on the basis of possible climate change scenarios are defined and proposed in the paper. Some application cases are also described.

Keywords: climate change, hydraulic design, precipitation, railway

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Authors: Domenico Carmelo Mongelli, Laura Carnieletto, Michele De Carli, Filippo Busato

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Starting from the current context in which the Russian invasion in Ukraine has highlighted Europe's dependence on natural gas imports for heating buildings, this study proposes solutions to resolve this dependency and evaluates related scenarios in the near future. In the first part of this work the methodologies and results of the economic impact are indicated by simulating a massive replacement of boilers powered by fossil fuels with electrically powered hightemperature air-water heat pumps for heating residential buildings in different European climates, without changing the current energy mix. For each individual European region, the costs for the purchase and installation of heat pumps for all residential buildings have been determined. Again for each individual European region, the economic savings during the operation phase that would be obtained in this future scenario of energy transition from fossil fuels to the electrification of domestic heating were calculated. For the European regions for which the economic savings were identified as positive, the payback times of the economic investments were analysed. In the second part of the work, hypothesizing different scenarios for a possible greater use of renewable energy sources and therefore with different possible future scenarios of the energy mix, the methodologies and results of the simulations on the economic analysis and on the environmental analysis are reported which have allowed us to evaluate the future effects of the energy transition from boilers to heat pumps for each European region. In the third part, assuming a rapid short-term diffusion of cooling for European residential buildings, the penetration shares in the cooling market and future projections of energy needs for cooling for each European region have been identified. A database was created where the results of this research relating to 38 European Nations divided into 179 regions were reported. Other previous works on the topics covered were limited to analyzing individual European nations, without ever going into detail about the individual regions within each nation, while the original contribution of the present work lies in the fact that the results achieved allow a specific numerical analysis and punctual for every single European region.

Keywords: buildings, energy, Europe, future

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Authors: Suraj Jena, Rabindra Kumar Panda

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The study region of the reported study was in Eastern India, having a sub-humid sub-tropical climate and sandy loam soil. The rainfall in this region has wide temporal and spatial variation. Due to lack of adequate surface water to meet the irrigation and household demands, groundwater is being over exploited in that region leading to continuous depletion of groundwater level. Therefore, there is an obvious urgency in reversing the depleting groundwater level through induced recharge, which becomes more critical under the climate change scenarios. The major goal of the reported study was to investigate the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge and subsequent adaptation strategies. Groundwater recharge was modelled using HELP3, a quasi-two-dimensional, deterministic, water-routing model along with global climate models (GCMs) and three global warming scenarios, to examine the changes in groundwater recharge rates for a 2030 climate under a variety of soil and vegetation covers. The relationship between the changing mean annual recharge and mean annual rainfall was evaluated for every combination of soil and vegetation using sensitivity analysis. The relationship was found to be statistically significant (p<0.05) with a coefficient of determination of 0.81. Vegetation dynamics and water-use affected by the increase in potential evapotranspiration for large climate variability scenario led to significant decrease in recharge from 49–658 mm to 18–179 mm respectively. Therefore, appropriate conjunctive use, irrigation schedule and enhanced recharge practices under the climate variability and land use/land cover change scenarios impacting the groundwater recharge needs to be understood properly for groundwater sustainability.

Keywords: Groundwater recharge, climate variability, Land use/cover, GCM

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Authors: Mafel Obhuo, Dodeye I. Igbong, Duabari S. Aziaka, Pericles Pilidis

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An important feature of the exploitation of associated gas as fuel for gas turbine engines is a declining supply. So when exploiting this resource, the divestment of prime movers is very important as the fuel supply diminishes with time. This paper explores the influence of engine degradation on the timing of divestments. Hypothetical but realistic gas turbine engines were modelled with Turbomatch, the Cranfield University gas turbine performance simulation tool. The results were deployed in three degradation scenarios within the TERA (Techno-economic and environmental risk analysis) framework to develop economic models. An optimisation with Genetic Algorithms was carried out to maximize the economic benefit. The results show that degradation will have a significant impact. It will delay the divestment of power plants, while they are running less efficiently. Over a 20 year investment, a decrease of $0.11bn, $0.26bn and $0.45bn (billion US dollars) were observed for the three degradation scenarios as against the clean case.

Keywords: economic return, flared associated gas, net present value, optimization

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Authors: Phuong Nguyen

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Along with the ongoing energy transition, the electrical power system is getting more vulnerable with the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources (RES). By replacing a large amount of fossil fuel-based power plants with RES, the rotating mass of the power grid is decreasing drastically, which has been reported by a number of system operators. This leads to a huge challenge for operators to secure the operation of their grids in all-time horizon ranges, from sub-seconds to minutes and even hours. There is a need to revise the grid capabilities in dealing with transient (angle) stability and voltage dynamics. While the traditional approaches relied on deterministic scenarios (worst-case scenarios), there is also a need to cover a whole range of probabilities regarding a wide range of uncertainties coming from massive RES units. To contribute to handle these issues, this paper aims to focus on developing a new analytical approach for transient stability.

Keywords: transient stability, uncertainties, renewable energy sources, analytical approach

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Authors: Lancer Scott

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Purpose: High quality clinical disaster medicine requires providers working collaboratively to care for multiple patients in chaotic environments; however, many providers lack adequate training. To address this deficit, we created a competency-based, 5-hour Emergency Preparedness Training (EPT) curriculum using didactics, small-group discussion, and kinetic learning. The goal was to evaluate the effect of a short course on improving provider knowledge, confidence and skills in disaster scenarios. Methods: Diverse groups of medical university students, health care professionals, and community members were enrolled between 2011 and 2014. The course consisted of didactic lectures, small group exercises, and two live, multi-patient mass casualty incident (MCI) scenarios. The outcome measures were based on core competencies and performance objectives developed by a curriculum task force and assessed via trained facilitator observation, pre- and post-testing, and a course evaluation. Results: 708 participants completed were trained between November 2011 and August 2014, including 49.9% physicians, 31.9% medical students, 7.2% nurses, and 11% various other healthcare professions. 100% of participants completed the pre-test and 71.9% completed the post-test, with average correct answers increasing from 39% to 60%. Following didactics, trainees met 73% and 96% of performance objectives for the two small group exercises and 68.5% and 61.1% of performance objectives for the two MCI scenarios. Average trainee self-assessment of both overall knowledge and skill with clinical disasters improved from 33/100 to 74/100 (overall knowledge) and 33/100 to 77/100 (overall skill). The course assessment was completed by 34.3% participants, of whom 91.5% highly recommended the course. Conclusion: A relatively short, intensive EPT course can improve the ability of a diverse group of disaster care providers to respond effectively to mass casualty scenarios.

Keywords: clinical disaster medicine, training, hospital preparedness, surge capacity, education, curriculum, research, performance, training, student, physicians, nurses, health care providers, health care

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Authors: Mohammad Zare, Mahbubeh Sheikh

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Many of the impact of climate change will material through change in soil erosion which were rarely addressed in Iran. This paper presents an investigation of the impacts of climate change soil erosin for the Kasilian basin. LARS-WG5 was used to downscale the IPCM4 and GFCM21 predictions of the A2 scenarios for the projected periods of 1985-2030 and 2080-2099. This analysis was carried out by means of the dataset the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) of Trieste. Soil loss modeling using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). Results indicate that soil erosion increase or decrease, depending on which climate scenarios are considered. The potential for climate change to increase soil loss rate, soil erosion in future periods was established, whereas considerable decreases in erosion are projected when land use is increased from baseline periods.

Keywords: Kasilian watershed, climatic change, soil erosion, LARS-WG5 Model, RUSLE

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Authors: Masoud Soltani Hosseini, Fereshteh Rahmani, Mohammad Tajik Mansouri, Ali Zolghadr

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Climate change is accompanied with ambient temperature increase and water accessibility limitation. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of climate change on thermal power plants including gas turbines, steam and combined cycle power plants in Iran. For this purpose, the ambient temperature increase and water accessibility will be analyzed and their effects on power output and efficiency of thermal power plants will be determined. According to the results, the ambient temperature has high effect on steam power plants with indirect cooling system (Heller). The efficiency of this type of power plants decreases by 0.55 percent per 1oC ambient temperature increase. This amount is 0.52 and 0.2 percent for once-through and wet cooling systems, respectively. The decrease in power output covers a range of 0.2% to 0.65% for steam power plant with wet cooling system and gas turbines per 1oC air temperature increase. Based on the thermal power plants distribution in Iran and different scenarios of climate change, the total amount of power output decrease falls between 413 and 1661 MW due to ambient temperature increase. Another limitation incurred by climate change is water accessibility. In optimistic scenario, the power output of steam plants decreases by 1450 MW in dry and hot climate areas throughout next decades. The remaining scenarios indicate that the amount of decrease in power output would be by 4152 MW in highlands and cold climate. Therefore, it is necessary to consider appropriate solutions to overcome these limitations. Considering all the climate change effects together, the actual power output falls in range of 2465 and 7294 MW and efficiency loss covers the range of 0.12 to .56 % in different scenarios.

Keywords: climate, change, thermal, power plants

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Authors: Noradin Ghadimi, Nima Amjady, Oveis Abedinia, Roza Poursoleiman

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This paper proposed an Improved Honey Bee Mating Optimization (IHBMO) for a planning paradigm for network upgrade. The proposed technique is a new meta-heuristic algorithm which inspired by mating of the honey bee. The paradigm is able to select amongst several choices equi-cost one assuring the optimum in terms of voltage profile, considering various scenarios of DG penetration and load demand. The distributed generation (DG) has created a challenge and an opportunity for developing various novel technologies in power generation. DG prepares a multitude of services to utilities and consumers, containing standby generation, peaks chopping sufficiency, base load generation. The proposed algorithm is applied over the 30 lines, 28 buses power system. The achieved results demonstrate the good efficiency of the DG using the proposed technique in different scenarios.

Keywords: distributed generation, IHBMO, renewable energy units, network upgrade

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Authors: L. Heidari, M. Jalili Ghazizade

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This paper aims to determine the best environmental and economic scenario for Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management of the Maku city by using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. The functional elements of this study are collection, transportation, and disposal of MSW in Maku city. Waste composition and density, as two key parameters of MSW, have been determined by field sampling, and then, the other important specifications of MSW like chemical formula, thermal energy and water content were calculated. These data beside other information related to collection and disposal facilities are used as a reliable source of data to assess the environmental impacts of different waste management options, including landfills, composting, recycling and energy recovery. The environmental impact of MSW management options has been investigated in 15 different scenarios by Integrated Waste Management (IWM) software. The photochemical smog, greenhouse gases, acid gases, toxic emissions, and energy consumption of each scenario are measured. Then, the environmental indices of each scenario are specified by weighting these parameters. Economic costs of scenarios have been also compared with each other based on literature. As final result, since the organic materials make more than 80% of the waste, compost can be a suitable method. Although the major part of the remaining 20% of waste can be recycled, due to the high cost of necessary equipment, the landfill option has been suggested. Therefore, the scenario with 80% composting and 20% landfilling is selected as superior environmental and economic scenario. This study shows that, to select a scenario with practical applications, simultaneously environmental and economic aspects of different scenarios must be considered.

Keywords: IWM software, life cycle assessment, Maku, municipal solid waste management

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Authors: Omar Ramzi Jasim, Jalal Sultan Ashour

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Production Planning or Master Production Schedule (MPS) is a key interface between marketing and manufacturing, since it links customer service directly to efficient use of production resources. Mismanagement of the MPS is considered as one of fundamental problems in operation and it can potentially lead to poor customer satisfaction. In this paper, a hybrid evolutionary algorithm (ICA-GA) is presented, which integrates the merits of both imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA) and genetic algorithm (GA) for solving multi-objective MPS problems. In the presented algorithm, the colonies in each empire has be represented a small population and communicate with each other using genetic operators. By testing on 5 production scenarios, the numerical results of ICA-GA algorithm show the efficiency and capabilities of the hybrid algorithm in finding the optimum solutions. The ICA-GA solutions yield the lower inventory level and keep customer satisfaction high and the required overtime is also lower, compared with results of GA and SA in all production scenarios.

Keywords: master production scheduling, genetic algorithm, imperialist competitive algorithm, hybrid algorithm

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Authors: Sungkyung Kim, Jee-Hyeon Na, Dong-Seung Kwon

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Future mobile networks following 5th generation will be characterized by one thousand times higher gains in capacity; connections for at least one hundred billion devices; user experience capable of extremely low latency and response times. To be close to the capacity requirements and higher reliability, advanced technologies have been studied, such as multiple connectivity, small cell enhancement, heterogeneous networking, and advanced interference and mobility management. This paper is focused on the multiple connectivity in heterogeneous cellular networks. We investigate the performance of coverage and user throughput in several deployment scenarios. Using the stochastic geometry approach, the SINR distributions and the coverage probabilities are derived in case of dual connection. Also, to compare the user throughput enhancement among the deployment scenarios, we calculate the spectral efficiency and discuss our results.

Keywords: heterogeneous networks, multiple connectivity, small cell enhancement, stochastic geometry

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Authors: Zhou BingHai, Fradet Victor

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Lean philosophy follows the simple principle of “creating more value with fewer resources”. In accordance with this policy, material handling can be managed by the mean of Kanban which by triggering every feeding tour only when needed regulates the flow of material in one of the most efficient way. This paper focuses on Kanban Supermarket’s parameters and their optimization on a purely cost-based point of view. Number and size of forklifts, as well as size of the containers they carry, will be variables of the cost function which includes handling costs, inventory costs but also shortage costs. With an innovative computational approach encoded into industrial engineering software Tecnomatix and reproducing real-life conditions, a fictive assembly line is established and produces a random list of orders. Multi-scenarios are then run to study the impact of each change of parameter and the variation of costs it implies. Lastly, best-case scenarios financially speaking are selected.

Keywords: Kanban, supermarket, parts-feeding policies, multi-scenario simulation, assembly line

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Authors: John Okanda Okwaro

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Carbon (IV) oxide (CO₂) is emitted majorly from fossil fuel combustion and industrial production. The sources of interest of carbon (IV) oxide in the study area are mining activities, transport systems, and industrial processes. This study is aimed at building models that will help in monitoring the emissions within the study area. Three scenarios were discussed, namely: pessimistic scenario, business-as-usual scenario, and optimistic scenario. The result showed that there was a reduction in carbon dioxide concentration by approximately 50.5 ppm between March 2020 and January 2021 inclusive. This is majorly due to reduced human activities that led to decreased consumption of energy. Also, the CO₂ concentration trend follows the business-as-usual scenario (BAU) path. From the models, the pessimistic, business-as-usual, and optimistic scenarios give CO₂ concentration of about 545.9 ppm, 408.1 ppm, and 360.1 ppm, respectively, on December 31st, 2021. This research helps paint the picture to the policymakers of the relationship between energy sources and CO₂ emissions. Since the reduction in CO₂ emission was due to decreased use of fossil fuel as there was a decrease in economic activities, then if Kenya relies more on green energy than fossil fuel in the post-COVID-19 period, there will be more CO₂ emission reduction. That is, the CO₂ concentration trend is likely to follow the optimistic scenario path, hence a reduction in CO₂ concentration of about 48 ppm by the end of the year 2021. This research recommends investment in solar energy by energy-intensive companies, mine machinery and equipment maintenance, investment in electric vehicles, and doubling tree planting efforts to achieve the 10% cover.

Keywords: forecasting, greenhouse gas, green energy, hierarchical data format

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Authors: Savita Tangwongkit, Chittur S Srinivasan, Philip J. Jones

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Thailand has become the world’s fourth largest sugarcane producer and second largest sugar exporter. While there have been a number of drivers of this growth, the primary driver has been wide-ranging government support measures. Recently, the Thai government has emphasized the need for policy reform as part of a broader industry restructuring to bring the sector up-to-date with the current and future developments in the international sugar market. Because of the sectors historical dependence on government support, any such reform is likely to have a very significant impact on the fortunes of Thai cane farmers. This study explores the impact of three policy scenarios, representing a spectrum of policy approaches, on Thai cane producers. These reform scenarios were designed in consultation with policy makers and academics working in the cane sector. Scenario 1 captures the current ‘government proposal’ for policy reform. This scenario removes certain domestic production subsidies but seeks to maintain as much support as is permissible under current WTO rules. The second scenario, ‘protectionism’, maintains the current internal market producer supports, but otherwise complies with international (WTO) commitments. Third, the ‘libertarian scenario’ removes all production support and market interventions, trade and domestic consumption distortions. Most important driver of producer behaviour in all of the scenarios is the producer price of cane. Cane price is obviously highest under the protectionism scenario, followed by government proposal and libertarian scenarios, respectively. Likely producer responses to these three policy scenarios was determined by means of a large-scale survey of cane farmers. The sample was stratified by size group and quotas filled by size group and region. One scenario was presented to each of three sub-samples, consisting of approx.150 farmers. Total sample size was 462 farms. Data was collected by face-to-face interview between June and August 2019. There was a marked difference in farmer response to the three scenarios. Farmers in the ‘Protectionism’ scenario, which maintains the highest cane price and those who farm larger cane areas are more likely to continue cane farming. The libertarian scenario is likely to result in the greatest losses in terms of cane production volume broadly double that of the ‘protectionism’ scenario, primarily due to farmers quitting cane production altogether. Over half of loss cane production volume comes from medium-size farm, i.e. the largest and smallest producers are the most resilient. This result is likely due to the fact that the medium size group are large enough to require hired labour but lack the economies of scale of the largest farms. Over all size groups the farms most heavily specialized in cane production, i.e. those devoting 26-50% of arable land to cane, are also the most vulnerable, with 70% of all farmers quitting cane production coming from this group. This investigation suggests that cane price is the most significant determinant of farmer behaviour. Also, that where scenarios drive significantly lower cane price, policy makers should target support towards mid-sized producers, with policies that encourage efficiency gains and diversification into alternative agricultural crops.

Keywords: farmer intentions, farm survey, policy reform, Thai cane production

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Authors: Katerina Nerantzaki, Panayiota Metallidou, Anastasia Efklides

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The aim of the study was to investigate: (a) changes in the intensity of various epistemic emotions during cognitive processing in a decision-making task and (b) their associations with metacognitive feelings of difficulty and confidence. One hundred and fifty-two undergraduate university students were asked individually to read in the e-prime environment decision-making scenarios about moral dilemmas concerning self-driving cars, which differed in the level of conflict they produced, and then to make a choice between two options. Further, the participants were asked to rate on a four-point scale four epistemic emotions (surprise, curiosity, confusion, and wonder) and two metacognitive feelings (feeling of difficulty and feeling of confidence) after making their choice in each scenario. Changes in cognitive processing due to the level of conflict affected differently the intensity of the specific epistemic emotions. Further, there were interrelations of epistemic emotions with metacognitive feelings.

Keywords: confusion, curiosity, epistemic emotions, metacognitive experiences, surprise

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Authors: Alireza Nikbakht Shahbazi

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There are various factors that affect climate changes; drought is one of those factors. Investigation of efficient methods for estimating climate change impacts on drought should be assumed. The aim of this paper is to investigate climate change impacts on drought in Karoon3 watershed located south-western Iran in the future periods. The atmospheric general circulation models (GCM) data under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios should be used for this purpose. In this study, watershed drought under climate change impacts will be simulated in future periods (2011 to 2099). Standard precipitation index (SPI) as a drought index was selected and calculated using mean monthly precipitation data in Karoon3 watershed. SPI was calculated in 6, 12 and 24 months periods. Statistical analysis on daily precipitation and minimum and maximum daily temperature was performed. LRAS-WG5 was used to determine the feasibility of future period's meteorological data production. Model calibration and verification was performed for the base year (1980-2007). Meteorological data simulation for future periods under General Circulation Models and climate change IPCC scenarios was performed and then the drought status using SPI under climate change effects analyzed. Results showed that differences between monthly maximum and minimum temperature will decrease under climate change and spring precipitation shall increase while summer and autumn rainfall shall decrease. The precipitation occurs mainly between January and May in future periods and summer or autumn precipitation decline and lead up to short term drought in the study region. Normal and wet SPI category is more frequent in B1 and A2 emissions scenarios than A1B.

Keywords: climate change impact, drought severity, drought frequency, Karoon3 watershed

Procedia PDF Downloads 207