Search results for: ruin probabilities

Authors: Yuan-Lin Chen

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This paper presents an approaching forward collision probability index (AFCPI) for alerting and assisting driver in keeping safety distance to avoid the forward collision accident in highway driving. The time to collision (TTC) and time headway (TH) are used to evaluate the TTC forward collision probability index (TFCPI) and the TH forward collision probability index (HFCPI), respectively. The Mamdani fuzzy inference algorithm is presented combining TFCPI and HFCPI to calculate the approaching collision probability index of the vehicle. The AFCPI is easier to understand for the driver who did not even have any professional knowledge in vehicle professional field. At the same time, the driver’s behavior is taken into account for suiting each driver. For the approaching index, the value 0 is indicating the 0% probability of forward collision, and the values 0.5 and 1 are indicating the 50% and 100% probabilities of forward collision, respectively. The AFCPI is useful and easy-to-understand for alerting driver to avoid the forward collision accidents when driving in highway.

Keywords: approaching index, forward collision probability, time to collision, time headway

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Authors: Sehrish Qayyum

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In this age of constant technology, asymmetrical warfare could not be won. Attuned psychometric study confirms that screaming sometimes is more productive than active retaliation against strong adversaries. Asymmetric warfare is a game of nerves and thoughts with least vigorous participation for large anticipated losses. It creates the condition of paraplegia with partial but permanent immobility, which effects the core warfare operations, being screams rather than active retaliation. When one’s own power is doubted, it gives power to one’s own doubt to ruin all planning either done with superlative cost-benefit analysis. Strategically calculated estimation of asymmetric warfare since the early WWI to WWII, WWII-to Cold War, and then to the current era in three chronological periods exposits that courage makes nations win the battle of warriors to battle of comrades. Asymmetric warfare has been most difficult to fight and survive due to unexpectedness and being lethal despite preparations. Thoughts before action may be the best-assumed strategy to mix Regional Security Complex Theory and OODA loop to develop the Paraplegic Resilience Policy Plan (PRPP) to win asymmetric warfare. PRPP may serve to control and halt the ongoing wave of terrorism, guerilla warfare, and insurgencies, etc. PRPP, along with a strategic work plan, is based on psychometric analysis to deal with any possible war condition and tactic to save millions of innocent lives such that lost in Christchurch New Zealand in 2019, November 2015 Paris attacks, and Berlin market attacks in 2016, etc. Getting tangled into self-imposed epistemic dilemmas results in regret that becomes the only option of performance. It is a descriptive psychometric analysis of war conditions with generic application of probability tests to find the best possible options and conditions to develop PRPP for any adverse condition possible so far. Innovation in technology begets innovation in planning and action-plan to serve as a rheostat approach to deal with asymmetric warfare.

Keywords: asymmetric warfare, psychometric analysis, PRPP, security

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Authors: T. Motsima, K. Zuma, E Rapoo

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Childhood mortality is a key sign of the coverage of child survival interventions, social and economic progressions. Although the level of under-five mortality has been declining, it is still unacceptably high. The primary aim of this paper is to establish and analyse the levels and trends of under-five mortality for the periods 1998, 2003 and 2012 in South Africa. Methods: The data used for analysis came from the 1998 SADHS, the 2003 SADHS and the 2012 SABSSM which collected information on the survival status of children. The Kaplan-Meier estimate of the survival function method was used to determine the probabilities of failure (death) from birth up to 59 months. Results and Conclusion: The overall U5MR declined by 28.2% from 53.1 in 1998 to 38.1 in 2012. The U5MR of male children declined from 59.2 in 1998 to 46.2 in 2003 and dropped further to 41.4 in 2012. The U5MR of children of mothers aged 40 years and older increased from 64.0 in 1998 to 89.0 in 2003 and rose further to 129.9 in 2012. The U5MR of children of mothers with education level of 12 years or more increased from 32.2 in 1998 to 35.2 in 2003 and declined substantially to 17.5 in 2012.

Keywords: demographic and health survey, Kaplan-Meier, levels and trends, under-five mortality

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Authors: Patarawan Sangnawakij, Sa-Aat Niwitpong

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In this paper, we proposed two new confidence intervals for the difference of coefficients of variation, CIw and CIs, in two independent gamma distributions. These proposed confidence intervals using the close form method of variance estimation which was presented by Donner and Zou (2010) based on concept of Wald and Score confidence interval, respectively. Monte Carlo simulation study is used to evaluate the performance, coverage probability and expected length, of these confidence intervals. The results indicate that values of coverage probabilities of the new confidence interval based on Wald and Score are satisfied the nominal coverage and close to nominal level 0.95 in various situations, particularly, the former proposed confidence interval is better when sample sizes are small. Moreover, the expected lengths of the proposed confidence intervals are nearly difference when sample sizes are moderate to large. Therefore, in this study, the confidence interval for the difference of coefficients of variation which based on Wald is preferable than the other one confidence interval.

Keywords: confidence interval, score’s interval, wald’s interval, coefficient of variation, gamma distribution, simulation study

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Authors: Jan Henrik Wosnitza

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The logistic regression has developed into a standard approach for estimating conditional probabilities in a wide range of applications including credit risk prediction. The article at hand contributes to the current literature on logistic regression fourfold: First, it is demonstrated that the binary logistic regression automatically meets its model assumptions under very general conditions. This result explains, at least in part, the logistic regression's popularity. Second, the requirement of homoscedasticity in the context of binary logistic regression is theoretically substantiated. The variances among the groups of defaulted and non-defaulted obligors have to be the same across the level of the aggregated default indicators in order to achieve linear logits. Third, this article sheds some light on the question why nonlinear logits might be superior to linear logits in case of a small amount of data. Fourth, an innovative methodology for estimating correlations between obligor-specific log-odds is proposed. In order to crystallize the key ideas, this paper focuses on the example of credit risk prediction. However, the results presented in this paper can easily be transferred to any other field of application.

Keywords: correlation, credit risk estimation, default correlation, homoscedasticity, logistic regression, nonlinear logistic regression

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Authors: Babak Kamrani, Nozar Kishi

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Stochastic catalog represents the events module of the earthquake loss estimation models. It includes series of events with different magnitudes and corresponding frequencies/probabilities. For the development of the stochastic catalog, random or uniform sampling methods are used to sample the events from the seismicity model. For covering all the Magnitude Frequency Distribution (MFD), a huge number of events should be generated for the above-mentioned methods. Characteristic Event (CE) method chooses the events based on the interest of the insurance industry. We divide the MFD of each source into bins. We have chosen the bins based on the probability of the interest by the insurance industry. First, we have collected the information for the available seismic sources. Sources are divided into Fault sources, subduction, and events without specific fault source. We have developed the MFD for each of the individual and areal source based on the seismicity of the sources. Afterward, we have calculated the CE magnitudes based on the desired probability. To develop the stochastic catalog, we have introduced uncertainty to the location of the events too.

Keywords: stochastic catalogue, earthquake loss, uncertainty, characteristic event

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Authors: Manas Tripathi, Arunabha Mukhopadhyay

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In Cloud computing environment, cloud servers, sometimes may crash after receiving huge amount of request and cloud services may stop which can create huge loss to users of that cloud services. This situation is called Denial of Service (DoS) attack. In Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack, an attacker targets multiple network paths by compromising various vulnerable systems (zombies) and floods the victim with huge amount of request through these zombies. There are many solutions to mitigate this challenge but most of the methods allows the attack traffic to arrive at Cloud Service Provider (CSP) and then only takes actions against mitigation. Here in this paper we are rather focusing on preventive mechanism to deal with these attacks. We analyze network topology and find most vulnerable paths beforehand without waiting for the traffic to arrive at CSP. We have used Dijkstra's and Yen’s algorithm. Finally, risk assessment of these paths can be done by multiplying the probabilities of attack for these paths with the potential loss.

Keywords: cloud computing, DDoS, Dijkstra, Yen’s k-shortest path, network security

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Authors: M. Reni Sagayaraj, S. Anand Gnana Selvam, R. Reynald Susainathan

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This study analyzed a queueing system with blocking and no waiting line. The customers arrive according to a Poisson process and the service times follow exponential distribution. There are two non-identical servers in the system. The queue discipline is FCFS, and the customers select the servers on fastest server first (FSF) basis. The service times are exponentially distributed with parameters μ1 and μ2 at servers I and II, respectively. Besides, the catastrophes occur in a Poisson manner with rate γ in the system. When server I is busy or blocked, the customer who arrives in the system leaves the system without being served. Such customers are called lost customers. The probability of losing a customer was computed for the system. The explicit time dependent probabilities of system size are obtained and a numerical example is presented in order to show the managerial insights of the model. Finally, the probability that arriving customer finds system busy and average number of server busy in steady state are obtained numerically.

Keywords: queueing system, blocking, poisson process, heterogeneous servers, queue discipline FCFS, busy period

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Authors: Sangbok Lee

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There has been much effort on process improvement for outpatient clinics to provide quality and acute care to patients. One of the efforts is no-show analysis or prediction. This work analyzes patient no-shows along with patient health conditions. The health conditions refer to clinical symptoms that each patient has, out of the followings; hyperlipidemia, diabetes, metastatic solid tumor, dementia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, coronary artery disease, myocardial infraction, congestive heart failure, atrial fibrillation, stroke, drug dependence abuse, schizophrenia, major depression, and pain. A dataset from a regional hospital is used to find the relationship between the number of the symptoms and no-show probabilities. Additional analysis reveals how each symptom or combination of symptoms affects no-shows. In the above analyses, cross-classification of patients by age and gender is carried out. The findings from the analysis will be used to take extra care to patients with particular health conditions. They will be forced to visit clinics by being informed about their health conditions and possible consequences more clearly. Moreover, this work will be used in the preparation of making institutional guidelines for patient reminder systems.

Keywords: healthcare system, no show analysis, process improvment, statistical data analysis

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Authors: Kok Meng Ng, Sulung Veronica

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Electronic Dance Music (EDM), a musical event that so sought-after amongst the youth, is getting prevailed around the world. The emergence of this à la mode event has magnetized lots of attentions from the media as well as the public due to its high probabilities in creating social problems and menacing social harmony of one destination, for instance, two death cases occurred during the EDM events in Malaysia caused a feeling of consternation of the society. The arguments over the impacts of such events towards the society are endless. This paper focuses on the study of the impacts of EDM towards social harmony in Klang Valley area, Malaysia by scrutinizing the contradiction of statements from several experts and the local communities. This study sampled 15-20 people that represent different social background with face-to-face and online interview through snowball sampling method. This study helps to understand the social context as a whole based on the impacts of EDM events that take place in Malaysia. It also provides valuable information to EDMs’ organizer as well as local authorities for a proper event management to minimize EDM impacts towards society as part of the sustainable growth of the event industry.

Keywords: electronic dance music, social harmony, impacts, Klang Valley

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Authors: Ming-Yue Zhai

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Due to the multipath and pulse noise nature, power line communications(PLC) channel can be modelled as a memory one with the finite states Markov model(FSMC). As the most important parameter modelling a Markov channel,the memory order in an FSMC is not solved in PLC systems yet. In the paper, the mutual information is used as a measure of the dependence between the different symbols, treated as the received SNA or amplitude of the current channel symbol or that of previous symbols. The joint distribution probabilities of the envelopes in PLC systems are computed based on the multi-path channel model, which is commonly used in PLC. we confirm that given the information of the symbol immediately preceding the current one, any other previous symbol is independent of the current one in PLC systems, which means the PLC channels is a Markov chain with the first-order. The field test is also performed to model the received OFDM signals with the help of AR model. The results show that the first-order AR model is enough to model the fading channel in PLC systems, which means the amount of uncertainty remaining in the current symbol should be negligible, given the information corresponding to the immediately preceding one.

Keywords: power line communication, channel model, markovian, information theory, first-order

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Authors: Jesse Rafeiro

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This paper discusses worldbuilding as a pedagogical approach to the first-year architectural design studio. The studio ran for three consecutive terms between 2016-2018. Taking its departure from the fifty-five city narratives in Italo Calvino’s Invisible Cities, students collectively designed in a “nowhere” space where intersecting and diverging narratives could be played out. Along with Calvino, students navigated between three main exercises and their imposed limits to develop architectural insight at three scales simulating the considerations of architectural practice: detail, building, and city. The first exercise asked each student to design and model a ruin based on randomly assigned incongruent fragments. Each student was given one plan fragment and two section fragments from different Renaissance Treatises. The students were asked to translate these in alternating axonometric projection and model-making explorations. Although the fragments themselves were imposed, students were free to interpret how the drawings fit together by imagining new details and atypical placements. An undulating terrain model was introduced in the second exercise to ground the worldbuilding exercises. Here, students were required to negotiate with one another to design a city of ruins. Free to place their models anywhere on the site, the students were restricted by the negotiation of territories marked by other students and the requirement to provide thresholds, open spaces, and corridors. The third exercise introduced new life into the ruined city through a series of design interventions. Each student was assigned an atypical building program suggesting a place for an activity, human or nonhuman. The atypical nature of the programs challenged the triviality of functional planning through explorations in spatial narratives free from preconceived assumptions. By contesting, playing out, or dreaming responses to realities taught in other coursework, this third exercise actualized learnings that are too often self-contained in the silos of differing course agendas. As such, the studio fostered an initial worldbuilding space within which to sharpen sensibility and criticality for subsequent years of education.

Keywords: architectural pedagogy, critical pedagogy, Italo Calvino, worldbuilding

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Authors: Josip Visković, Josip Arnerić, Ante Rozga

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Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modelling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.

Keywords: central and east European countries, financial crisis, Markov switching GARCH model, transition probabilities

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Authors: Yothin Sawangdee, Piyawat Katewongsa, Chutima Yousomboon, Kornkanok Pongpradit, Sakapas Saengchai, Phusit Khantikul

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Debts reconstruction under some of moratorium projects is one of important method that highly benefits to both the Banks and farmers. The method can reduce probabilities for nonprofits loan. This paper discuss about debts reconstruction and career development training for farmers in Thailand between 2011 and 2013. The research designed is mix-method between quantitative survey and qualitative survey. Sample size for quantitative method is 1003 cases. Data gathering procedure is between October and December 2013. Main results affirmed that debts reconstruction is needed. And there are numerous benefits from farmers’ career development training. Many of farmers who attend field school activities able to bring knowledge learned to apply for the farms’ work. They can reduce production costs. Framers’ quality of life and their household well-being also improve. This program should apply in any countries where farmers have highly debts and highly risks for not return the debts.

Keywords: career development, debts reconstruction, farmers household well-being, Thailand

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Authors: Sehrish Qayyum

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Active military power contention is shifting to economic and cyberwar to retain hegemony. Attuned Pestle analysis confirms that structural stress of hegemon’s power loss drives a containment approach towards caging actions. Ongoing diplomatic, asymmetric, proxy and direct wars are increasing stress hegemon’s power retention due to tangled military and economic alliances. It creates the condition of catalepsy with defective reflexive control which affects the core warfare operations. When one’s own power is doubted it gives power to one’s own doubt to ruin all planning either done with superlative cost-benefit analysis. Strategically calculated estimation of Hegemon’s power game since the early WWI to WWII, WWII-to Cold War and then to the current era in three chronological periods exposits that Thucydides’s trap became the reason for war broke out. Thirst for power is the demise of imagination and cooperation for better sense to prevail instead it drives ashes to dust. Pestle analysis is a wide array of evaluation from political and economic to legal dimensions of the state matters. It helps to develop the Pacification and Security Policy Plan (PSPP) to avoid hegemon’s structural stress of power loss in fact, in turn, creates an alliance with maximum amicable outputs. PSPP may serve to regulate and pause the hurricane of power clashes. PSPP along with a strategic work plan is based on Pestle analysis to deal with any conceivable war condition and approach for saving international peace. Getting tangled into self-imposed epistemic dilemmas results in regret that becomes the only option of performance. It is a generic application of probability tests to find the best possible options and conditions to develop PSPP for any adversity possible so far. Innovation in expertise begets innovation in planning and action-plan to serve as a rheostat approach to deal with any plausible power clash.

Keywords: alliance, hegemon, pestle analysis, pacification and security policy plan, security

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Authors: Timothée Bligny, Clément Codron, Antoine Estruch, Nicolas Girodet, Clément Ginet

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Collateralized Debt Obligations are not as widely used nowadays as they were before 2007 Subprime crisis. Nonetheless there remains an enthralling challenge to optimize cash flows associated with synthetic CDOs. A Gaussian-based model is used here in which default correlation and unconditional probabilities of default are highlighted. Then numerous simulations are performed based on this model for different scenarios in order to evaluate the associated cash flows given a specific number of defaults at different periods of time. Cash flows are not solely calculated on a single bought or sold tranche but rather on a combination of bought and sold tranches. With some assumptions, the simplex algorithm gives a way to find the maximum cash flow according to correlation of defaults and maturities. The used Gaussian model is not realistic in crisis situations. Besides present system does not handle buying or selling a portion of a tranche but only the whole tranche. However the work provides the investor with relevant elements on how to know what and when to buy and sell.

Keywords: synthetic collateralized debt obligation (CDO), credit default swap (CDS), cash flow optimization, probability of default, default correlation, strategies, simulation, simplex

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Authors: Fariha Asif

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The Saudi EFL learners face a number of problems in EFL learning, anxiety is the most potent one among those. It means that its resolution can lead to better language skills in Saudi students. That’s why, the study is carried out and is considered to be of interest to the Saudi language learners, educators and the policy makers because of the potentially negative impact that anxiety has on English language learning. The purpose of the study is to explore the factors that cause language anxiety in the Saudi EFL learners while learning speaking skills and the influence it casts on communication in the target language. The investigation of the anxiety-producing factors that arise while learning to communicate in the target language will hopefully broaden the insight into the issue of language anxiety and will help language teachers in making the classroom environment less stressful. The study seeks to answer the questions such as what are the psycholinguistic factors that cause language anxiety among ESL/EFL learners in learning and speaking English Language, especially in the context of the Saudi students. What are the socio-cultural factors that cause language anxiety among Saudi EFL learners in learning and speaking English Language? How is anxiety manifested in the language learning of the Saudi EFL learners? And which strategies can be used to successfully cope with language anxiety? The scope of the study is limited to the college and university English Teachers and subject specialists (males and females) in public sectors colleges and universities in Saudi Arabia. Some of the key findings of the study are:, Anxiety plays an important role in English as foreign language learning for the Saudi EFL learners. Some teachers believe that anxiety bears negatives effects for the learners, while some others think that anxiety serves a positive outcome for the learners by giving them an extra bit of motivation to do their best in English language learning. Language teachers seem to have consensus that L1 interference is one of the major factors that cause anxiety among the Saudi EFL learners. Most of the Saudi EFL learners are found to have fear of making mistakes. They don’t take initiative and opt to keep quiet and don’t respond fearing that they would make mistakes and this would ruin their image in front of their peers. Discouraging classroom environment is also counted as one of the major anxiety causing factors. The teachers, who don’t encourage learners positively, make them anxious and they start avoiding class participation. It is also found that English language teachers have their important role to minimize the negative effects of anxiety in the classes. The teachers’ positive encouragement can do wonders in this regard. A positive, motivating and encouraging class environment is essential to produce desired results in English language learning for the Saudi EFL learners.

Keywords: factors, psychology, speaking, EFL

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Authors: Ormal Lishi

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This research presents a computationally efficient probabilistic method to assess the performance of compartmentation walls with similar Fire Resistance Levels (FRL) but varying complexity. Specifically, a masonry brick wall and a light-steel framed (LSF) wall with comparable insulation performance are analyzed. A Monte Carlo technique, employing Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), is utilized to quantify uncertainties and determine the probability of failure for both walls exposed to standard and parametric fires, following ISO 834 and Eurocodes guidelines. Results show that the probability of failure for the brick masonry wall under standard fire exposure is estimated at 4.8%, while the LSF wall is 7.6%. These probabilities decrease to 0.4% and 4.8%, respectively, when subjected to parametric fires. Notably, the complex LSF wall exhibits higher variability in predicting time to failure for specific criteria compared to the less complex brick wall, especially at higher temperatures. The proposed approach highlights the need for Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to accurately evaluate the reliability and safety levels of complex designs.

Keywords: design complexity, probability of failure, monte carlo analysis, compartmentation walls, insulation

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Authors: Nguyen J. M., Lucas G., Brunner M., Ruan S., Antonioli D.

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Deep learning based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) is a very powerful technique for classifying information from an image. We propose a new method, DeepNic, to transform each variable of a tabular dataset into an image where each pixel represents a set of conditions that allow the variable to make an error-free prediction. The contrast of each pixel is proportional to its prediction performance and the color of each pixel corresponds to a sub-family of NICs. NICs are probabilities that depend on the number of inputs to each neuron and the range of coefficients of the inputs. Each variable can therefore be expressed as a function of a matrix of 2 vectors corresponding to an image whose pixels express predictive capabilities. Our objective is to transform each variable of tabular data into images into an image that can be analysed by CNNs, unlike other methods which use all the variables to construct an image. We analyse the NIC information of each variable and express it as a function of the number of neurons and the range of coefficients used. The predictive value and the category of the NIC are expressed by the contrast and the color of the pixel. We have developed a pipeline to implement this technology and have successfully applied it to genomic expressions on an Affymetrix chip.

Keywords: tabular data, deep learning, perfect trees, NICS

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Authors: Zahra Ramezanpanah, Joachim Carvallo, Aurelien Rodriguez

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This paper aims to detect anomalies in streaming data using machine learning algorithms. In this regard, we designed two separate pipelines and evaluated the effectiveness of each separately. The first pipeline, based on supervised machine learning methods, consists of two phases. In the first phase, we trained several supervised models using the UNSW-NB15 data-set. We measured the efficiency of each using different performance metrics and selected the best model for the second phase. At the beginning of the second phase, we first, using Argus Server, sniffed a local area network. Several types of attacks were simulated and then sent the sniffed data to a running algorithm at short intervals. This algorithm can display the results of each packet of received data in real-time using the trained model. The second pipeline presented in this paper is based on unsupervised algorithms, in which a Temporal Graph Network (TGN) is used to monitor a local network. The TGN is trained to predict the probability of future states of the network based on its past behavior. Our contribution in this section is introducing an indicator to identify anomalies from these predicted probabilities.

Keywords: temporal graph network, anomaly detection, cyber security, IDS

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Authors: Mehran Naghizaderokni, Asscar Janalizadechobbasty

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There are more probabilistic and deterministic liquefaction evaluation procedures in order to judge whether liquefaction will occur or not. A review of this approach reveals that there is a need for a comprehensive procedure that accounts for different sources of uncertainty in liquefaction evaluation. In fact, for the same set of input parameters, different methods provide different factors of safety and/or probabilities of liquefaction. To account for the different uncertainties, including both the model and measurement uncertainties, reliability analysis is necessary. This paper has obtained information from Standard Penetration Test (SPT) and some empirical approaches such as: Seed et al, Highway bridge of Japan approach to soil liquefaction, The Overseas Coastal Area Development Institute of Japan (OCDI) and reliability method to studying potential of liquefaction in soil of Babol city in the north of Iran are compared. Evaluation potential of liquefaction in soil of Babol city is an important issue since the soil of some area contains sand, seismic area, increasing level of underground waters and consequently saturation of soil; therefore, one of the most important goals of this paper is to gain suitable recognition of liquefaction potential and find the most appropriate procedure of evaluation liquefaction potential to decrease related damages.

Keywords: reliability analysis, liquefaction, Babol, civil, construction and geological engineering

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Authors: J. I. Aguwa, S. Sadiku, M. Abdullahi

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This study examined the structural reliability of the Nigerian grown Opepe timber as bridge beam material. The strength of a particular specie of timber depends so much on some factors such as soil and environment in which it is grown. The steps involved are collection of the Opepe timber samples, seasoning/preparation of the test specimens, determination of the strength properties/statistical analysis, development of a computer programme in FORTRAN language and finally structural reliability analysis using FORM 5 software. The result revealed that the Nigerian grown Opepe is a reliable and durable structural bridge beam material for span of 5000mm, depth of 400mm, breadth of 250mm and end bearing length of 150mm. The probabilities of failure in bending parallel to the grain, compression perpendicular to the grain, shear parallel to the grain and deflection are 1.61 x 10^-7, 1.43 x 10^-8, 1.93 x 10^-4 and 1.51 x 10^-15 respectively. The paper recommends establishment of Opepe plantation in various Local Government Areas in Nigeria for structural applications such as in bridges, railway sleepers, generation of income to the nation as well as creating employment for the numerous unemployed youths.

Keywords: bending and deflection, bridge beam, compression, Nigerian Opepe, shear, structural reliability

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Authors: Sherwan Kher Alden Yakub Alsofy

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In this paper, we consider the relativistic Hamilton-Jacobi (HJ) equation and study the Hawking radiation (HR) of scalar particles from uncharged Grumiller black hole (GBH) which is affordable for testing in astrophysics. GBH is also known as Rindler modified Schwarzschild BH. Our aim is not only to investigate the effect of the Rindler parameter A on the Hawking temperature (TH ), but to examine whether there is any discrepancy between the computed horizon temperature and the standard TH as well. For this purpose, in addition to its naive coordinate system, we study on the three regular coordinate systems which are Painlev´-Gullstrand (PG), ingoing Eddington- Finkelstein (IEF) and Kruskal-Szekeres (KS) coordinates. In all coordinate systems, we calculate the tunneling probabilities of incoming and outgoing scalar particles from the event horizon by using the HJ equation. It has been shown in detail that the considered HJ method is concluded with the conventional TH in all these coordinate systems without giving rise to the famous factor- 2 problem. Furthermore, in the PG coordinates Parikh-Wilczek’s tunneling (PWT) method is employed in order to show how one can integrate the quantum gravity (QG) corrections to the semiclassical tunneling rate by including the effects of self-gravitation and back reaction. We then show how these corrections yield a modification in the TH.

Keywords: ingoing Eddington, Finkelstein, coordinates Parikh-Wilczek’s, Hamilton-Jacobi equation

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Authors: Saemee Jun, Dong-Hyeon Shin, Tae-Sang Ahn, Hyung-Joon Kim

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Building loss estimation methodologies which have been advanced considerably in recent decades are usually used to estimate socio and economic impacts resulting from seismic structural damage. In accordance with these methods, this paper presents the evaluation of an annual loss probability of a reinforced concrete moment resisting frame designed according to Korean Building Code. The annual loss probability is defined by (1) a fragility curve obtained from a capacity spectrum method which is similar to a method adopted from HAZUS, and (2) a seismic hazard curve derived from annual frequencies of exceedance per peak ground acceleration. Seismic fragilities are computed to calculate the annual loss probability of a certain structure using functions depending on structural capacity, seismic demand, structural response and the probability of exceeding damage state thresholds. This study carried out a nonlinear static analysis to obtain the capacity of a RC moment resisting frame selected as a prototype building. The analysis results show that the probability of being extensive structural damage in the prototype building is expected to 0.004% in a year.

Keywords: expected annual loss, loss estimation, RC structure, fragility analysis

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Authors: Leonard Maaya, Michel Meulders, Martina Vandebroek

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Discrete Choice Experiments (DCE) are used to investigate how product attributes affect decision-makers’ choices. In DCEs, choice situations consisting of several alternatives are presented from which choice-makers select the preferred alternative. Standard multinomial logit models based on random utility theory can be used to estimate the utilities for the attributes. The overarching principle in these models is that respondents understand and use all the attributes when making choices. However, studies suggest that respondents sometimes ignore some attributes (commonly referred to as Attribute Non-Attendance/ANA). The choice modeling literature presents ANA as a static process, i.e., respondents’ ANA behavior does not change throughout the experiment. However, respondents may ignore attributes due to changing factors like availability of information on attributes, learning/fatigue in experiments, etc. We develop a dynamic mixture latent Markov model to model changes in ANA when information on attributes is provided. The model is illustrated on e-consumers’ webshop choices. The results indicate that the dynamic ANA model describes the behavioral changes better than modeling the impact of information using changes in parameters. Further, we find that providing information on attributes leads to an increase in the attendance probabilities for the investigated attributes.

Keywords: choice models, discrete choice experiments, dynamic models, e-commerce, statistical modeling

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Authors: Aakansha Gupta, Neha Vadnere, Tapasvi Soni, M. Anbarsi

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Protein secondary structure prediction is one of the most important goals pursued by bioinformatics and theoretical chemistry; it is highly important in medicine and biotechnology. Some aspects of protein functions and genome analysis can be predicted by secondary structure prediction. This is used to help annotate sequences, classify proteins, identify domains, and recognize functional motifs. In this paper, we represent protein secondary structure as a mathematical model. To extract and predict the protein secondary structure from the primary structure, we require a set of parameters. Any constants appearing in the model are specified by these parameters, which also provide a mechanism for efficient and accurate use of data. To estimate these model parameters there are many algorithms out of which the most popular one is the EM algorithm or called the Expectation Maximization Algorithm. These model parameters are estimated with the use of protein datasets like RS126 by using the Bayesian Probabilistic method (data set being categorical). This paper can then be extended into comparing the efficiency of EM algorithm to the other algorithms for estimating the model parameters, which will in turn lead to an efficient component for the Protein Secondary Structure Prediction. Further this paper provides a scope to use these parameters for predicting secondary structure of proteins using machine learning techniques like neural networks and fuzzy logic. The ultimate objective will be to obtain greater accuracy better than the previously achieved.

Keywords: model parameters, expectation maximization algorithm, protein secondary structure prediction, bioinformatics

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Authors: Mustafa Tahir Ocak, Gülsün Tanyeli

Abstract:

Georgia became Christian in the 4th century. During the 7th and 8th centuries, Georgia, with its capital at Tiflis, was devastated by Arab invasions from the south and east. Tiflis was abandoned and a new Georgia, with its capital at present-day Ardanuç; in Turkey, was established, based on the provinces of Tao, Klarjeti and Shavsheti. Georgian power revived during the 9th century and the new kings embarked on a notable period of church building, each prince intent on raising memorials to his reign. Georgia was weakened again in the 11th century. First, by Byzantium which now feared the Georgians’ growing power and, second, by the advance of the Seljuk Turks. But defeat did not last long and under David II, ‘the Builder’, Georgian armies recaptured Tiflis in 1122, heralding a second political and cultural renascence. There has been a remarkable increase in the number of monuments in 9th-11th centuries. Kingdom of Georgia’s boundaries have changed lots of times over the centuries, and consequently a considerable number of churches are to be found in other countries, especially in north-eastern provinces of Turkey. Georgian monuments spread to valleys of the Çoruh, Oltu and Tortum rivers in north-east Turkey. These churches have significant role in architectural history. The medieval Georgians and the Armenians had known contacts with Byzantium. Their churches influenced mid-Byzantine architecture and were a factor in the evolution of the Romanesque style in Europe. In the centuries following the inclusion of Tao and Klarjeti within the expanding Ottoman Empire, the monasteries and churches were gradually abandoned with migration of Christian population. Although some of those monuments are in good condition through the conversion of churches to use as mosques, the rest of those monuments are under threat from neglect and lack of maintenance. Many fell into ruin or were plundered for their stone; others were damaged by earthquakes, by treasure hunters. The only hope for the Georgian churches is for them to be recognised as a touristic value in a beautiful region of deep valleys and magnificent mountain scenery. As coeval churches in modern Georgian boundaries, these churches in north-eastern provinces of Turkey have to evaluated by UNESCO. This study aims to create awereness about the conservation of Georgian churches in north-eastern provinces of Turkey as world heritage taking advantages of tourism. Georgian churches as a heritage should be evaluated not only a monument but also cultural landscape. The cultural route is created visiting both churches and the other medieval structures in these regions.

Keywords: Georgian churches, medieval monuments, Tao-Klarjeti, Turkey

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Authors: Ahmed O. Babaleye, Rafet E. Kurt

Abstract:

The global oil and gas industry is beginning to witness an increase in the number of installations moving towards decommissioning. Decommissioning of offshore installations is a complex, costly and hazardous activity, making safety one of the major concerns. Among existing removal options, complete and partial removal options pose the highest risks. Therefore, a dynamic risk model of the accidents from the two options is important to assess the risks on an overall basis. In this study, a risk-based safety model is developed to conduct quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for jacket structure systems failure. Firstly, bow-tie (BT) technique is utilised to model the causal relationship between the system failure and potential accident scenarios. Subsequently, to relax the shortcomings of BT, Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) were established to dynamically assess associated uncertainties and conditional dependencies. The BBN is developed through a similitude mapping of the developed bow-tie. The BBN is used to update the failure probabilities of the contributing elements through diagnostic analysis, thus, providing a case-specific and realistic safety analysis method when compared to a bow-tie. This paper presents the application of dynamic safety analysis to guide the allocation of risk control measures and consequently, drive down the avoidable cost of remediation.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network, offshore decommissioning, dynamic safety model, quantitative risk analysis

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Authors: Mohammad Jalali Varnamkhasti

Abstract:

The genetic algorithms have been very successful in handling difficult optimization problems. The fundamental problem in genetic algorithms is premature convergence. This paper, present a new fuzzy genetic algorithm based on chaotic values instead of the random values in genetic algorithm processes. In this algorithm, for initial population is used chaotic sequences and then a new sexual selection proposed for selection mechanism. In this technique, the population is divided such that the male and female would be selected in an alternate way. The layout of the male and female chromosomes in each generation is different. A female chromosome is selected by tournament selection size from the female group. Then, the male chromosome is selected, in order of preference based on the maximum Hamming distance between the male chromosome and the female chromosome or The highest fitness value of male chromosome (if more than one male chromosome is having the maximum Hamming distance existed), or Random selection. The selections of crossover and mutation operators are achieved by running the fuzzy logic controllers, the crossover and mutation probabilities are varied on the basis of the phenotype and genotype characteristics of the chromosome population. Computational experiments are conducted on the proposed techniques and the results are compared with some other operators, heuristic and local search algorithms commonly used for solving p-median problems published in the literature.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, fuzzy system, chaos, sexual selection

Procedia PDF Downloads 356

Authors: Natia Gavardashvili

Abstract:

On June 13-14 of 2015, a landslide in village Akhaldaba was formed as a result of the intense rains in the water catch basin of the river Vere. As a result of the landslide movement, freshets and mudflows originated, and unfortunately, there were victims: zoo animals and birds were drawn in the flood and 12 people died due to the flooded motor road. The goal of the study is to give the analysis of the results of the field and scientific research held in 2015-2017 and to generalize them to the water catch basins of the erosive-mudflow rivers of other mountain landscapes of Georgia. By considering the field and scientific works, the main geographic, geological, climatic, hydrological and hydraulic properties of the erosive-mudflow tributaries of the water catch basin of the river Vere were evaluated and the probabilities of mudflow formation by considering relevant risk-factors were identified. The typology of the water catch basins of erosive-mudflow rivers of Georgia was identified on the example of the river Vere based on the field and scientific study, and their genesis, frequency of mudflow formation and volume of the drift material was identified. By using the empirical and theoretical dependencies, the amount of solid admixtures in the mudflow formed in the gorge of the river Jokhona, the right tributary of the river Vere was identified by considering the shape of the stones.

Keywords: water catchment basin, erosion, mudflow, typology

Procedia PDF Downloads 247