Search results for: risks

Authors: Farshad Ghodoosi

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This article analyzes the effect of supervening events in contracts. Contracts serve an important function: allocation of risks. In spite of its importance, the case law and the doctrine are messy and inconsistent. This article provides a fresh look at excuse doctrines (i.e., force majeure, impracticability, impossibility, and frustration) with a focus on force majeure clauses. The article makes the following contributions: First, it furnishes a new conceptual and theoretical framework of excuse doctrines. By distilling the decisions, it shows that excuse doctrines rests on the triangle of control, foreseeability, and contract language. Second, it analyzes force majeure clauses used by S&P 500 companies to understand the stickiness and similarity of such clauses and the events they cover. Third, using computational and statistical tools, it analyzes US cases since 1810 in order to assess the weight given to the triangle of control, foreseeability, and contract language. It shows that the control factor plays an important role in force majeure analysis, while the contractual interpretation is the least important factor. The Article concludes that it is the standard for control -whether the supervening event is beyond the control of the party- that determines the outcome of cases in the force majeure context and not necessarily the contractual language. This article has important implications on COVID-19-related contractual cases. Unlike the prevailing narrative that it is the language of the force majeure clause that’s determinative, this article shows that the primarily focus of the inquiry will be on whether the effects of COVID-19 have been beyond the control of the promisee. Normatively, the Article suggests that the trifactor of control, foreseeability, and contractual language are not effective for allocation of legal risks in times of crises. It puts forward a novel approach to force majeure clauses whereby that the courts should instead focus on the degree to which parties have relied on (expected) performance, in particular during the time of crisis.

Keywords: contractual risks, force majeure clauses, foreseeability, control, contractual language, computational analysis

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Authors: Srinivasa Rao Gadde

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In this article, we considered a group acceptance sampling plans for exponentiated half logistic distribution when the life-test is truncated at a pre-specified time. It is assumed that the index parameter of the exponentiated half logistic distribution is known. The design parameters such as the number of groups and the acceptance number are obtained by satisfying the producer’s and consumer’s risks at the specified quality levels in terms of medians and 10th percentiles under the assumption that the termination time and the number of items in each group are pre-fixed. Finally, an example is given to illustration the methodology.

Keywords: group acceptance sampling plan, operating characteristic, consumer and producer’s risks, truncated life-test

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Authors: Noora Al-Shanfari, M. Mazharul Islam

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The cumulative incidence function (CIF) is a fundamental approach for analyzing survival data in the presence of competing risks, which estimates the marginal probability for each competing event. Parametric modeling of CIF has the advantage of fitting various shapes of CIF and estimates the impact of covariates with maximum efficiency. To calculate the total CIF's covariate influence using a parametric model., it is essential to parametrize the baseline of the CIF. As the CIF is an improper function by nature, it is necessary to utilize an improper distribution when applying parametric models. The Gompertz distribution, which is an improper distribution, is limited in its applicability as it only accounts for monotone hazard shapes. The generalized Gompertz distribution, however, can adapt to a wider range of hazard shapes, including unimodal, bathtub, and monotonic increasing or decreasing hazard shapes. In this paper, the generalized Gompertz distribution is used to parametrize the baseline of the CIF, and the parameters of the proposed model are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. The proposed model is compared with the existing Gompertz model using the Akaike information criterion. Appropriate statistical test procedures and model-fitting criteria will be used to test the adequacy of the model. Both models are applied to the ‘colon’ dataset, which is available in the “biostat3” package in R.

Keywords: competing risks, cumulative incidence function, improper distribution, parametric modeling, survival analysis

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Authors: Ebtissem Sassi, Abdellatif Benabdelhafid, Sami Hammami

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Congestion, pollution and space misuse are the major risks in the hinterland. Management of these risks is a major issue for all the actors intervening in territory management. A good mastery of these risks is based on the consideration of environmental and physical constraints since the implementation of a policy integrates simultaneously an efficient use, territorial resources, and financial resources which become increasingly rare. Yet, this balance can be difficult to establish simultaneously by all the actors. Indeed, every actor has often the tendency to favor these objectives in detriment to others. In this framework, we have fixed the objective of designing and achieving a model which will centralize multidisciplinary data and serve the analysis tool as well as a decision support tool. In this article, we will elaborate some methodological axes allowing the good management of the territory system through (i) determination of the structural factors of the decision support system, (ii) integration of methods tools favoring the territorial decisional process. Logistics territory geographic information system is a model dealing with this issue. The objective of this model is to facilitate the exchanges between the actors around a common question which was the research subject of human sciences researchers (geography, economy), nature sciences (ecology) as well as finding an optimal solution for simultaneous responses to all these objectives.

Keywords: complexity, territory, logistics, territory planning, conceptual model, GIS, MCA

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Authors: Chloe E. Edwards, Yasaman Shahtaheri

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Risk management plays a fundamental role in project planning and delivery. The purpose of incorporating risk management into project management practices is to identify and address uncertainties related to key project-related activities. The uncertainties, known as risk events, can relate to project deliverables that are quantifiable and are often measured by impact to project schedule, cost, or environmental impact. Risk management should be incorporated as an iterative practice throughout the planning, execution, and commissioning phases of a project. This paper specifically examines how risk management contributes to effective project planning and delivery through a case study of a transportation project. This case study focused solely on impacts to project schedule regarding three milestones: readiness for delivery, readiness for testing and commissioning, and completion of the facility. The case study followed the ISO 31000: Risk Management – Guidelines. The key factors that are outlined by these guidelines include understanding the scope and context of the project, conducting a risk assessment including identification, analysis, and evaluation, and lastly, risk treatment through mitigation measures. This process requires continuous consultation with subject matter experts and monitoring to iteratively update the risks accordingly. The risk identification process led to a total of fourteen risks related to design, permitting, construction, and commissioning. The analysis involved running 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations through @RISK 8.0 Industrial software to determine potential milestone completion dates based on the project baseline schedule. These dates include the best case, most likely case, and worst case to provide an estimated delay for each milestone. Evaluation of these results provided insight into which risks were the highest contributors to the projected milestone completion dates. Based on the analysis results, the risk management team was able to provide recommendations for mitigation measures to reduce the likelihood of risks occurring. The risk management team also provided recommendations for managing the identified risks and project activities moving forward to meet the most likely or best-case milestone completion dates.

Keywords: construction management, monte carlo simulation, project delivery, risk assessment, transportation engineering

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Authors: Kimberly Tasha Jiayi Tang, Changqing Lin, Zhe Wang, Tze-Wai Wong, Md. Shakhaoat Hossain, Jian Yu, Alexis Lau

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Hong Kong has practiced a risk-based Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) system that sums hospitalization risks associated with short-term exposure to air pollu-tants. As an air pollution risk communication tool, it informs the public about the current air quality, anchoring around the World Health Organization's (WHO) 2005 Air Quality Guidelines (AQGs). Given the WHO's recent update in 2021, assessing how Hong Kong’s air quality risk communication can be en-hanced using these updated guidelines is essential. Hong Kong’s AQHI is lim-ited by solely focusing on short-term health risks, which could lead the public to underestimate cumulative health impacts. Therefore, we propose the intro-duction of a composite AQHI that reports both long-term and short-term health risks. Additionally, the WHO interim targets will be considered as anchor points for various health risk categories. Furthermore, with the increasing ozone levels in Hong Kong and Southern China due to improved NOx mitigation measures, it has been a challenging task in balancing health protection against climate mitigation. However, our findings present a promising outlook. Despite the rise in ozone levels, the combined health risks in Hong Kong and Guang-dong have seen a decline, largely due to reductions in NO2 and PM concentra-tions, both having significant health implications. By shifting from a concentra-tion-based approach to a health risk-based system like the AQHI, our study highlights the prospective of harmonizing health protection and climate mitiga-tion goals. This health-focused framework suggests that rigorous NOx controls can effective-ly serve both objectives in parallel.

Keywords: air quality management, air quality health index, health risk management, air pollution

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Authors: Mohsen Ehsanpour, Maryam Ehsanpour, ‎Majid Afkhami, Fatemeh Afkhami ‎

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Heavy metals are increasingly being released into natural waters from geological and anthropogenic sources. The distribution of several heavy metals (Cd, Pb) was investigated in muscle, liver in six different fish species seasonally collected in Persian Gulf (autumn 2009-summer 2010). The concentrations of all metals were lower in flesh than those recorded in liver due to their physiological roles. The THQ index for fish was calculated. Estimation of target hazard quotients calculations for the contaminated fish consumption was calculated to evaluate the effect of pollution on health. Total metal THQs values (Pb and Cd) for adults were 0.05 and 0.04 in Bushehr and Bandar-Genaveh, respectively, and for children they were 0.08 and 0.05 in Bandar-Abbas and Bandar-Lengeh, respectively.

Keywords: Persian Gulf, heavy metals, health risks, THQ index

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Authors: B. Rusyidi, D. Mariana

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Although reforms in trafficking regulations have taken place since 2007, Indonesia is still struggling to fight child trafficking. This study aimed to identify and assess risk factors and vulnerabilities in the life of trafficked children prior to, during, and after being trafficked in order to inform the child protection system and its policies. The study was qualitative and utilized in-depth interviews to collect data. Data were gathered in 2014 and 2015 from 15 trafficked and sexually exploited girls aged 14 to 17 years originating from West Java. Social workers, safe home personnel and parents were also included as informants. Data analysis was guided by the ecological perspective and theme analyses. The study found that risks and vulnerabilities of the victims were associated with conditions at various levels of the environment. At the micro level, risk factors and vulnerabilities included young age, family conflict/violence, involvement with the “wrong” circle of friends/peers, family poverty, lack of social and economic support for the victim’s family, and psychological damages due to trafficking experiences. At the mezzo level, the lack of structured activities after school, economic inequality, stigma towards victims, lack of services for victims, and minimum public education on human trafficking were among the community hazards that increased the vulnerability and risks. Gender inequality, consumerism, the view of children as assets, corruption, weak law enforcement, the lack of institutional support, and community-wide ignorance regarding trafficking were found as factors that increased risks and vulnerabilities at the macro level. The findings from the study underline the necessity to reduce risk factors and promote protective factors at the individual, family, community and societal levels. Shifting the current focus from tertiary to primary/prevention policies and improving institutional efforts are pressing needs in the context of reducing child trafficking in Indonesia. The roles of human service providers including social work also should be promoted.

Keywords: child trafficking, child sexual exploitation, ecological perspective, risks and vulnerabilities

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Authors: Chinelo Igwenagu

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Teenage childbearing in developing countries has been a thing of great concern as it has often led to a number of socioeconomic problems both to the society and to the families affected. The outcome of teenage pregnancy has been generally associated with higher rates of maternal morbidity and mortality, greater risks for delivery complications, low-birth weight infants and child mortality. As a result of teenagers’ physiological and social immaturity and their lack of adequate prenatal care, health risks associated with their pregnancies and childbearing are more pronounced than those of older women. Therefore this study has examined the relationship between the age of teenagers and the outcome of teenage pregnancy. Based on this study, the result of the analysis shows that both teenagers and older mothers suffer similarly during child bearing. Hence improve medical care is paramount in all the situations.

Keywords: childbearing, mortality, Nigeria, pregnancy, prematurity, teenagers

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Authors: Piret Pernik

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Based on strategic, operational, and technical analysis of the ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine, this paper will examine the opportunities and risks of using small commercial drones (dual-use unmanned aerial vehicles, UAV) for military purposes. The paper discusses the opportunities and risks in the information domain, encompassing both cyber and electromagnetic interference and attacks. The paper will draw conclusions on a possible strategic impact to the battlefield outcomes in the modern armed conflicts by the widespread use of dual-use UAVs. This article will contribute to filling the gap in the literature by examining based on empirical data cyberattacks and electromagnetic interference. Today, more than one hundred states and non-state actors possess UAVs ranging from low cost commodity models, widely are dual-use, available and affordable to anyone, to high-cost combat UAVs (UCAV) with lethal kinetic strike capabilities, which can be enhanced with Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML). Dual-use UAVs have been used by various actors for intelligence, reconnaissance, surveillance, situational awareness, geolocation, and kinetic targeting. Thus they function as force multipliers enabling kinetic and electronic warfare attacks and provide comparative and asymmetric operational and tactical advances. Some go as far as argue that automated (or semi-automated) systems can change the character of warfare, while others observe that the use of small drones has not changed the balance of power or battlefield outcomes. UAVs give considerable opportunities for commanders, for example, because they can be operated without GPS navigation, makes them less vulnerable and dependent on satellite communications. They can and have been used to conduct cyberattacks, electromagnetic interference, and kinetic attacks. However, they are highly vulnerable to those attacks themselves. So far, strategic studies, literature, and expert commentary have overlooked cybersecurity and electronic interference dimension of the use of dual use UAVs. The studies that link technical analysis of opportunities and risks with strategic battlefield outcomes is missing. It is expected that dual use commercial UAV proliferation in armed and hybrid conflicts will continue and accelerate in the future. Therefore, it is important to understand specific opportunities and risks related to the crowdsourced use of dual-use UAVs, which can have kinetic effects. Technical countermeasures to protect UAVs differ depending on a type of UAV (small, midsize, large, stealth combat), and this paper will offer a unique analysis of small UAVs both from the view of opportunities and risks for commanders and other actors in armed conflict.

Keywords: dual-use technology, cyber attacks, electromagnetic warfare, case studies of cyberattacks in armed conflicts

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Authors: David Glew, Felix Thomas, Matthew Brooke-Peat

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Improving the thermal performance of homes is seen as an essential step in achieving climate change, fuel security, fuel poverty targets. One of the most effective thermal retrofits is to insulate solid walls. However, it has been observed that applying insulation to the internal face of solid walls reduces the surface temperature of the inner wall leaf, which may introduce condensation risk and may interrupt seasonal moisture accumulation and dissipation. This research quantifies the extent to which the risk of condensation and moisture accumulation in the wall increases (which can increase the risk of timber rot) following the installation of six different types of internal wall insulation. In so doing, it compares how risk is affected by both the thermal resistance, thickness, and breathability of the insulation. Thermal bridging, surface temperatures, condensation risk, and moisture accumulation are evaluated using hygrothermal simulation software before and after the thermal upgrades. The research finds that installing internal wall insulation will always introduce some risk of condensation and moisture. However, it identifies that risks were present prior to insulation and that breathable materials and insulation with lower resistance have lower risks than alternative insulation options. The implications of this may be that building standards that encourage the enhanced thermal performance of solid walls may be introducing moisture risks into homes.

Keywords: condensation risk, hygrothermal simulation, internal wall insulation, thermal bridging

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Authors: Jie Liu, Wei Wei, Chun-Ping Chang

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Using a sample of 110 countries over the period 1984-2013, this paper examines the impacts of country risks on choosing a specific exchange rate regime (first by utilizing the Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger de facto classification and then robusting it by the IMF de jure measurement) relative to other regimes via the panel multinomial logit approach. Empirical findings are as follows. First, in the full samples case we provide evidence that government is more likely to implement a flexible regime, but less likely to adopt a fixed regime, under a low level of composite and financial risk. Second, we find that Eurozone countries are more likely to choose a fixed exchange rate regime with a decrease in the level of country risk and favor a flexible regime in response to a shock from an increase of risk, which is opposite to non-Eurozone countries. Third, we note that high-risk countries are more likely to choose a fixed regime with a low level of composite and political risk in the government, but do not adjust the exchange rate regime as a shock absorber when facing economic and financial risks. It is interesting to see that those countries with relatively low risk display almost opposite results versus high-risk economies. Overall, we believe that it is critically important to account for political economy variables in a government’s exchange rate policy decisions, especially for country risks. All results are robust to the panel ordered probit model.

Keywords: country risk, political economy, exchange rate regimes, shock absorber

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Authors: Tuji Jemal Ahmed

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This paper is to provides a comprehensive review of current research works on foodborne illness and food safety, including the risks associated with foodborne illnesses, the latest research on food safety, and the mitigation strategies used to prevent and control foodborne illnesses. Foodborne illness is a major public health concern that affects millions of people every year. As foodborne illnesses have grown more common and dangerous in recent years, it is vital that we research and build upon methods to ensure food remains safe throughout consumption. Additionally, this paper will discuss future directions for food safety research, including emerging technologies, changes in regulations and standards, and collaborative efforts to improve food safety. The first section of the paper provides an overview of the risks of foodborne illness, including a definition of foodborne illness, the causes of foodborne illness, the types of foodborne illnesses, and high-risk foods for foodborne illness, Health Consequences of Foodborne Illness. The second section of the paper focuses on current research on food safety, including the role of regulatory agencies in food safety, food safety standards and guidelines, emerging food safety concerns, and advances in food safety technology. The third section of the paper explores mitigation strategies for foodborne illness, including preventative measures, hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP), good manufacturing practices (GMPs), and training and education. Finally, this paper examines future directions for food safety research, including hurdle technologies and their impact on food safety, changes in food safety regulations and standards, collaborative efforts to improve food safety, and research gaps and areas for further exploration. In general, this work provides a comprehensive review of current research and future directions in food safety and understanding the risks associated with foodborne illness. The implications of the assessment for food safety and public health are discussed, as well as recommended for research scholars.

Keywords: food safety, foodborne illness, technologies, mitigation

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Authors: Babatunde Osabiya

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Cybersecurity has emerged as a pressing policy problem in recent years, affecting individuals, businesses, and governments worldwide. This research paper aims to critically review the literature on cybersecurity policy and apply policy theory to propose a policy approach that balances the freedom to access and use technology with the human rights risks and threats posed by cyber. Drawing on various credible sources, the paper examines the scale and seriousness of cyber threats, highlighting the growing threat posed by cybercriminals, hackers, and nation-states. The paper also identifies the key challenges facing policymakers, including the need for more significant investment in cybersecurity research and development and the importance of balancing the benefits of technological innovation with the risks to privacy, security, and human rights. To address these challenges, the paper proposes a policy approach emphasizing investing in cybersecurity research and development to maintain a technological edge over potential adversaries. This approach also highlights the need for greater collaboration between government, industry, and civil society to develop effective cybersecurity policies and practices that protect the rights and freedoms of people while mitigating the risks posed by cyber threats. This paper will contribute to the growing body of literature on cybersecurity policy and offers a policy framework for addressing this critical policy challenge.

Keywords: security risk, legal framework, cyber security and policy, national security

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Authors: Pedro Augusto Da Silva E Souza Miranda, Niloofar Jalali, Shweta Mistry

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BACKGROUND: Software developers utilize automated solutions to scrape users’ reviews to extract meaningful knowledge to identify problems (e.g., bugs, compatibility issues) and possible enhancements (e.g., users’ requests) to their solutions. However, most of these solutions do not consider the health risk aspects to users. Recent works have shed light on the importance of including health risk considerations in the development cycle of mHealth apps to prevent harm to its users. PROBLEM: The COVID-19 Pandemic in Canada (and World) is currently forcing physical distancing upon the general population. This new lifestyle made the usage of mHealth applications more essential than ever, with a projected market forecast of 332 billion dollars by 2025. However, this new insurgency in mHealth usage comes with possible risks to users’ health due to mHealth apps problems (e.g., wrong insulin dosage indication due to a UI error). OBJECTIVE: These works aim to raise awareness amongst mHealth developers of the importance of considering risks to users’ health within their development lifecycle. Moreover, this work also aims to help mHealth developers with a Proof-of-Concept (POC) solution to understand, process, and identify possible health risks to users of mHealth apps based on users’ reviews. METHODS: We conducted a mixed-method study design. We developed a crawler to mine the negative reviews from two samples of mHealth apps (my fitness, medisafe) from the Google Play store users. For each mHealth app, we performed the following steps: • The reviews are divided into two groups, before starting the COVID-19 (reviews’ submission date before 15 Feb 2019) and during the COVID-19 (reviews’ submission date starts from 16 Feb 2019 till Dec 2020). For each period, the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic model was used to identify the different clusters of reviews based on similar topics of review The topics before and during COVID-19 are compared, and the significant difference in frequency and severity of similar topics are identified. RESULTS: We successfully scraped, filtered, processed, and identified health-related topics in both qualitative and quantitative approaches. The results demonstrated the similarity between topics before and during the COVID-19.

Keywords: natural language processing (NLP), topic modeling, mHealth, COVID-19, software engineering, telemedicine, health risks

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Authors: Reza Heidari, Maryam Amiri

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In a technological world, many countries have a tendency to fortifying their companies and technological infrastructures. Also, one of the most important requirements for developing technology is innovation, and then, all companies are struggling to consider innovation as a basic principle. Since, the expansion of a product need to combine different technologies, therefore, different innovative projects would be run in the firms as a base of technology development. In such an environment, enterprise resource planning (ERP) has special significance in order to develop and strengthen of innovations. In this article, an economic-probabilistic analysis was provided to perform an implementation project of ERP in the technological innovation (TI) based firms. The used model in this article assesses simultaneously both risk and economic analysis in view of the probability of each event that is jointly between economical approach and risk investigation approach. To provide an economic-probabilistic analysis of risk of the project, activities and milestones in the cash flow were extracted. Also, probability of occurrence of each of them was assessed. Since, Resources planning in an innovative firm is the object of this project. Therefore, we extracted various risks that are in relation with innovative project and then they were evaluated in the form of cash flow. This model, by considering risks affecting the project and the probability of each of them and assign them to the project's cash flow categories, presents an adjusted cash flow based on Net Present Value (NPV) and with probabilistic simulation approach. Indeed, this model presented economic analysis of the project based on risks-adjusted. Then, it measures NPV of the project, by concerning that these risks which have the most effect on technological innovation projects, and in the following measures probability associated with the NPV for each category. As a result of application of presented model in the information and communication technology (ICT) industry, provided an appropriate analysis of feasibility of the project from the point of view of cash flow based on risk impact on the project. Obtained results can be given to decision makers until they can practically have a systematically analysis of the possibility of the project with an economic approach and as moderated.

Keywords: cash flow categorization, economic evaluation, probabilistic, risk assessment, technological innovation

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Authors: Pratima Pokharel

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When sewer overflow due to rainfall in urban areas, this leads to public health risks when an individual is exposed to that contaminated floodwater. Nevertheless, it is still unclear the extent to which the infections pose a risk to public health. This study analyzed reported diarrheal cases by month and age in Bangkok, Thailand. The results showed that the cases are reported higher in the wet season than in the dry season. It was also found that in Bangkok, the probability of infection with diarrheal diseases in the wet season is higher for the age group between 15 to 44. However, the probability of infection is highest for kids under 5 years, but they are not influenced by wet weather. Further, this study introduced a vulnerability that leads to health risks from urban flooding. This study has found some vulnerability variables that contribute to health risks from flooding. Thus, for vulnerability analysis, the study has chosen two variables, economic status, and age, that contribute to health risk. Assuming that the people's economic status depends on the types of houses they are living in, the study shows the spatial distribution of economic status in the vulnerability maps. The vulnerability map result shows that people living in Sukhumvit have low vulnerability to health risks with respect to the types of houses they are living in. In addition, from age the probability of infection of diarrhea was analyzed. Moreover, a field survey was carried out to validate the vulnerability of people. It showed that health vulnerability depends on economic status, income level, and education. The result depicts that people with low income and poor living conditions are more vulnerable to health risks. Further, the study also carried out 1D Hydrodynamic Advection-Dispersion modelling with 2-year rainfall events to simulate the dispersion of fecal coliform concentration in the drainage network as well as 1D/2D Hydrodynamic model to simulate the overland flow. The 1D result represents higher concentrations for dry weather flows and a large dilution of concentration on the commencement of a rainfall event, resulting in a drop of the concentration due to runoff generated after rainfall, whereas the model produced flood depth, flood duration, and fecal coliform concentration maps, which were transferred to ArcGIS to produce hazard and risk maps. In addition, the study also simulates the 5-year and 10-year rainfall simulations to show the variation in health hazards and risks. It was found that even though the hazard coverage is very high with a 10-year rainfall events among three rainfall events, the risk was observed to be the same with a 5-year and 10-year rainfall events.

Keywords: urban flooding, risk, hazard, vulnerability, health risk, framework

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Authors: Nicula Valentin, Andrei Virginia

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Nowadays, the individual plays a central role in the state’s architecture. This is why the subjective dimension of the security represents a key concept in risk assessment. The paper’s scope is to emphasize the discrepancy between expert and lay evaluations of national security hazards, which is caused by key factors like emotions, personal experience, knowledge and media. Therefore, we have chosen to apply, using these two different groups of respondents, the Q-sort method, which reveals individual beliefs, attitudes, preferences hidden behind the subjects’ own way of prioritizing the risks they are confronted with. Our study’s conclusions are meant to unveil significant indicators needed to be taken into consideration by a state’s leadership in order to understand the social perception of national security hazards, to communicate better with the public opinion and prevent or mitigate the overestimation of the severity or probability of these dangers.

Keywords: risk perception, Q-sort method, national security hazards, individual beliefs

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Authors: Najeebah Almahmeed

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Risk Management is an evolving subject among organizations that include corporations, governments, non-governmental organizations, and not-for-profit corporations. In order to enhance awareness around the importance of Risk Management and make sure everyone is using it in their day-to-day job, the Risk Culture topic has emerged and gained importance not only in the Finance Sector but also in the National Oil Companies in Kuwait. Risk Culture can be defined as the shared beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors within a company that guide its approach to managing risks. It acts as a connecting force that links policies, procedures, and individuals, influencing how risks are understood and tackled through activities. In this research, benefits of Risk Culture are shared, guidelines are presented to promote a risk aware culture, and fully embed and enforce Risk-based processes and procedures. Moreover, this research demonstrates methodologies of measuring the Risk Culture using specific dimensions and clusters.

Keywords: clusters, dimensions, national oil companies, risk culture, risk management

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Authors: Mamiza Haq

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This paper examines the relevance of bank capital and charter value on bank insolvency and liquidity risks. Using an unbalanced panel of 2,111 unique local banks across 22 countries over 1998-2012, we find that both bank capital and charter value lower insolvency and liquidity risks, but this effect varies among conventional, Islamic, and Islamic-window banks. The risk constraining effect of bank capital becomes more prominent in the post 2007-2008 global financial crisis. Moreover, the relationships vary when conditioned upon other key bank-specific characteristics. For instance, the effect of capital on risk-reduction diminishes in the presence of high charter value for conventional-G7 and Islamic-window banks, during-GFC and pre-GFC period; respectively. Our findings have important policy implications related to bank safety. The results are robust to a range of robustness tests.

Keywords: bank capital, charter value, risk, financial crisis

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Authors: Muhammad Saleem

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Background: Inattentive food choices and engagement in excessive physical activities by male athletes can potentially lead to adverse health consequences. Objective: The aim was to ascertain the occurrence of risk factors associated with the Male Athlete Triad among young elite athletes in Pakistan. Methodology: In 2018, a cross-sectional study based on questionnaires was conducted at the Pakistan Sports Board. The study aimed to explore the risk factors related to the Male Athlete Triad in young elite athletes who were part of national training camps in major metropolitan areas. The study included proficient male elite athletes aged 18 to 25 years, capable of understanding the English questionnaire. The athletes completed a survey encompassing aspects like demographic information, educational background, Body Mass Index (BMI), sports involvement, and hours of participation. Additionally, they filled out the Eating Attitude Test-26 (EAT-26) and questionnaires assessing risks of amenorrhea and low bone mineral density. The prevalence of risk factors for each of the three components was individually evaluated. The collected data underwent analysis using SPSS-20, with descriptive statistics being applied. Results: The study comprised a sample of 90 elite athletes (mean age: 23.57 ± 2.37 years, mean BMI: 21.97 ± 1.90) engaged in various sports. The EAT-26 results indicated that 50% of athletes were at risk of developing an eating disorder. Moreover, 83.3% exhibited disordered eating behaviors that necessitated referral. Risks for amenorrhea were observed in 15% of the participants, and regarding low bone mineral density, notable risks were absent except for the consumption of caffeinated beverages, which was noted in 51.7% of participants. Conclusion: The study identified a significant prevalence of disordered eating risk among male elite athletes in Pakistan. However, the risks associated with amenorrhea and low bone mineral density were not a major concern in this particular group.

Keywords: Pakistan, osteoporosis, female athlete triad, bone mineral density, athlete, amenorrhea, eating disorders

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Authors: Liwen Wang, Yuting Chen, Tong Wu, Shaolei Hu

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In order to enhance the security of critical financial infrastructure, this study carries out a transformation of the architecture of a financial trading terminal to a zero trust architecture (ZTA), constructs an active defense system for cybersecurity, improves the security level of trading services in the Internet environment, enhances the ability to prevent network attacks and unknown risks, and reduces the industry and security risks brought about by cybersecurity risks. This study introduces the SDP technology of ZTA, adapts and applies it to a financial trading terminal to achieve security optimization and fine-grained business grading control. The upgraded architecture of the trading terminal moves security protection forward to the user access layer, replaces VPN to optimize remote access, and significantly improves the security protection capability of Internet transactions. The study achieves 1. deep integration with the access control architecture of the transaction system; 2. no impact on the performance of terminals and gateways, and no perception of application system upgrades; 3. customized checklist and policy configuration; 4. introduction of industry-leading security technology such as single-packet authorization (SPA) and secondary authentication. This study carries out a successful application of ZTA in the field of financial trading and provides transformation ideas for other similar systems while improving the security level of financial transaction services in the Internet environment.

Keywords: zero trust, trading terminal, architecture, network security, cybersecurity

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Authors: Anders Troedsson

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For us humans, risks are intimately linked to human vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially insecurity, and risk. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means increasing security and decreasing risk. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risks (including threats, assaults, crisis etc.), is to understand the vulnerabilities these external phenomena evoke in humans. As is argued, the basis of risk evaluation, as well as responses, is the more or less subjective perception by the individual person, or a group of persons, exposed to the external event or phenomena in question. This will be determined primarily by the vulnerability or vulnerabilities that the external factor are perceived to evoke. In this way, risk perception is primarily an inward dynamic, rather than an outward one. Therefore, a route towards an understanding of the perception of risks, is a closer scrutiny of the vulnerabilities which they can evoke, thereby approaching an understanding of what in the paper is called the essence of risk (including threat, assault etc.), or that which a certain perceived risk means to an individual or group of individuals. As a necessary basis for gauging the wide spectrum of potential risks and their meaning, the paper proposes a model of human vulnerabilities, drawing from i.a. a long tradition of needs theory. In order to account for the subjectivity factor, which mediates between the innate vulnerabilities on the one hand, and the event or phenomenon out there on the other hand, an ensuing ontological discussion about the timespace characteristics of risk/threat/assault as perceived by humans leads to the positing of two dimensions. These two dimensions are applied on the vulnerabilities, resulting in a modelling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which are related to each other and together represent a dynamic whole. In approaching the problem of risk perception, the paper thus defines the relevant realms of vulnerabilities, depicting them as a dynamic whole. With reference to a substantial body of literature and a growing international policy trend since the 1990s, this model is put in the language of human security - a concept relevant not only for international security studies and policy, but also for other academic disciplines and spheres of human endeavor.

Keywords: human security, timespace, vulnerabilities, risk perception

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Authors: Pinar Ercan, Bulut Mert

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The baking industry is prone to occupational health challenges like other industries. Workers in bakeries face many hazards in their work environment; hazards have the potential for causing injury, illness or work accidents. Most of these hazards are preventable and arise from the neglect of occupational safety measures. Some bakeries in Izmır Turkey was evaluated according to occupational health and safety. First of all, the production process was evaluated. The survey was administered to a total of 50 employees. The survey consisted of two sections. The first one comprised only demographic questions and items related to job characteristics. The remaining section was assessing the satisfaction and confidence about occupational health and safety in terms of employees consist of a 10-item questionnaire by using HSE (2010) survey with some modifications. Also, hazards, risks and control measures in the bakeries were determined. Risk assessment has been done by the use of '5x5 Risk Assessment Table' for this purpose.

Keywords: bakeries, occupational health and safety, hazards, risks, risk assessment

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Authors: Esther Baldwin

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It is well settled that the use of solitary confinement can cause psychological and physical harm to detainees. For juveniles, who are more susceptible to irreparable harm due to their underdeveloped psyches, the risks are exacerbated. Despite these risks, across the United States juvenile detainees are regularly held in isolation for prolonged periods of time. This essay will examine the broad impact of solitary confinement on juvenile detainees while giving particular focus to the story of Kalief Browder, a juvenile awaiting trial on Rikers Island in New York for a period of three years, nearly two years of which were spent in solitary confinement. Although sadly, his story is not uncommon, Kalief’s story offers a unique perspective in that it provides first-hand insight on the effects of solitary confinement on juveniles. It is our hope that by sharing his story, we will demand better detention practices and policies for juveniles under correctional control in the United States.

Keywords: criminal justice system, juveniles, Kalief browder, solitary confinement

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Authors: Oksana Domkina

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According to the modern economic theory, human capital became one of the main production factors and the most promising direction of investment, as such investment provides opportunity of obtaining high and long-term economic and social effects. Informational technology (IT) sector is the representative of this new economy which is most dependent on human capital as the main competitive factor. So the question for this sector is not whether investment in development of personal should be made, but what are the most effective ways of executing it and who has to pay for the education: Worker, company or government. In this paper we examine the IT sector, describe the labor market of IT workers and its development, and analyze the risks that IT companies may face if they invest in the development of their workers and what factors influence it. The main problem and difficulty of quantitative estimation of risk of investment in human capital of a company and its forecasting is human factor. Human behavior is often unpredictable and complex, so it requires specific approaches and methods of assessment. To build a comprehensive method of estimation of the risk of investment in human capital of a company considering human factor, we decided to use the method of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), that initially was created and developed. We separated three main group of factors: Risks related to the worker, related to the company, and external factors. To receive data for our research, we conducted a survey among the HR departments of Ukrainian IT companies used them as experts for the AHP method. Received results showed that IT companies mostly invest in the development of their workers, although several hire only already qualified personnel. According to the results, the most significant risks are the risk of ineffective training and the risk of non-investment that are both related to the firm. The analysis of risk factors related to the employee showed that, the factors of personal reasons, motivation, and work performance have almost the same weights of importance. Regarding internal factors of the company, there is a high role of the factor of compensation and benefits, factors of interesting projects, team, and career opportunities. As for the external environment, one of the most dangerous factor of risk is competitor activities, meanwhile the political and economical situation factor also has a relatively high weight, which is easy to explain by the influence of severe crisis in Ukraine during 2014-2015. The presented method allows to take into consideration all main factors that affect the risk of investment in human capital of a company. This gives a base for further research in this field and allows for a creation of a practical framework for making decisions regarding the personnel development strategy and specific employees' development plans for the HR departments.

Keywords: risks, personnel development, investment in development, factors of risk, risk of investment in development, IT, analytic hierarchy process, AHP

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Authors: Phan Minh Trang, Joacim Rocklöv, Kim Bao Giang, Gunnar Kullgren, Maria Nilsson

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There are recent studies from high income countries reporting an association between heat waves and hospital admissions for mental health disorders. It is not previously studied if such relations exist in sub-tropical and tropical low- and middle-income countries. In this study from Vietnam, the assumption was that hospital admissions for mental disorders may be triggered, or exacerbated, by heat exposure and heat waves. A database from Hanoi Mental Hospital with mental disorders diagnosed by the International Classification of Diseases 10, spanning over five years, was used to estimate the heatwave-related impacts on admissions for mental disorders. The relationship was analysed by a Negative Binomial regression model accounting for year, month, and days of week. The focus of the study was heat-wave events with periods of three or seven consecutive days above the threshold of 35oC daily maximum temperature. The preliminary study results indicated that heat-waves increased the risks for hospital admission for mental disorders (F00-79) from heat-waves of three and seven days with relative risks (RRs) of 1.16 (1.01–1.33) and 1.42 (1.02–1.99) respectively, when compared with non-heat-wave periods. Heatwave-related admissions for mental disorders increased statistically significantly among men, among residents in rural communities and in elderly. Moreover, cases for organic mental disorders including symptomatic illnesses (F0-9) and mental retardation (F70-79) raised in high risks during heat waves. The findings are novel studying a sub-tropical middle-income city, facing rapid urbanisation and epidemiological and demographic transitions.

Keywords: mental disorders, admissions for F0-9 or F70-79, maximum temperature, heat waves

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Reda Madi

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The problem of natural disasters in general and flooding in particular is a topic which marks a memorable action in the world and specifically in cities and large urban areas. Torrential floods and faster flows pose a major problem in urban area. Indeed, a better management of risks of floods becomes a growing necessity that must mobilize technical and scientific means to curb the adverse consequences of this phenomenon, especially in the Saharan cities in arid climate. The aim of this study is to deploy a basic calculation approach based on a hydrologic and hydraulic quantification for locating the black spots in urban areas generated by the flooding and to locate the areas that are vulnerable to flooding. The principle of flooding method is applied to the city of Ghardaia to identify vulnerable areas to inundation and to establish maps management and prevention against the risks of flooding.

Keywords: Alea, Beni Mzab, cartography, HEC-RAS, inundation, torrential, vulnerability, wadi

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Authors: Muhammad Saleem

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Background: Inattentive food choices and engagement in excessive physical activities by male athletes can potentially lead to adverse health consequences. Objective: The aim was to ascertain the occurrence of risk factors associated with the Male Athlete Triad among young elite athletes in Pakistan. Methodology: In 2018, a cross-sectional study based on questionnaires was conducted at the Pakistan Sports Board. The study aimed to explore the risk factors related to the Male Athlete Triad in young elite athletes who were part of national training camps in major metropolitan areas. The study included proficient male elite athletes aged 18 to 25 years, capable of understanding the English questionnaire. The athletes completed a survey encompassing aspects like demographic information, educational background, Body Mass Index (BMI), sports involvement, and hours of participation. Additionally, they filled out the Eating Attitude Test-26 (EAT-26) and questionnaires assessing risks of amenorrhea and low bone mineral density. The prevalence of risk factors for each of the three components was individually evaluated. The collected data underwent analysis using SPSS-20, with descriptive statistics being applied. Results: The study comprised a sample of 90 elite athletes (mean age: 23.57 ± 2.37 years, mean BMI: 21.97 ± 1.90) engaged in various sports. The EAT-26 results indicated that 50% of athletes were at risk of developing an eating disorder. Moreover, 83.3% exhibited disordered eating behaviors that necessitated referral. Risks for amenorrhea were observed in 15% of the participants, and regarding low bone mineral density, notable risks were absent except for the consumption of caffeinated beverages, which was noted in 51.7% of participants. Conclusion: The study identified a significant prevalence of disordered eating risk among male elite athletes in Pakistan. However, the risks associated with amenorrhea and low bone mineral density were not a major concern in this particular group.

Keywords: 1. health and physical education risk factors male athlete associated with the male athlete traid in young elite athlete from pakistan., 2. sports sciences pakistan, 3. risk factors sports sciences pakistan, 4. triad and young elite athlete from pakistan

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Authors: Haytham Yassine

Abstract:

This research seeks to identify how money laundering activities are executed through the real estate sector. This article provides academics with literature on the topic and provides scholars, and practitioners with a better understanding of the risks and challenges involved. Data are gathered through survey in the Middle East and North Africa region and review of the available research. The results of the analysis will help identifying the factors attracting criminals to the real estate sector and develop an understanding of the methods used to launder illicit funds through this sector and the indicators of suspicion for reporting entities. Further analysis reveals the risks posed by money laundering and terrorist financing on the real estate sector and challenges facing states in this regard.

Keywords: money laundering, terrorism financing, real estate sector, Middle East and North Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 127