Search results for: risk profiles

Authors: Roman Graf, Sergiu Gordea, Heather M. Ryan

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This paper presents an approach for easy creation and classification of institutional risk profiles supporting endangerment analysis of file formats. The main contribution of this work is the employment of data mining techniques to support set up of the most important risk factors. Subsequently, risk profiles employ risk factors classifier and associated configurations to support digital preservation experts with a semi-automatic estimation of endangerment group for file format risk profiles. Our goal is to make use of an expert knowledge base, accuired through a digital preservation survey in order to detect preservation risks for a particular institution. Another contribution is support for visualisation of risk factors for a requried dimension for analysis. Using the naive Bayes method, the decision support system recommends to an expert the matching risk profile group for the previously selected institutional risk profile. The proposed methods improve the visibility of risk factor values and the quality of a digital preservation process. The presented approach is designed to facilitate decision making for the preservation of digital content in libraries and archives using domain expert knowledge and values of file format risk profiles. To facilitate decision-making, the aggregated information about the risk factors is presented as a multidimensional vector. The goal is to visualise particular dimensions of this vector for analysis by an expert and to define its profile group. The sample risk profile calculation and the visualisation of some risk factor dimensions is presented in the evaluation section.

Keywords: linked open data, information integration, digital libraries, data mining

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Authors: Mohsin Ali Baloch, Saira Baloch

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Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the levels of serum lipid profiles in Urban and Rural Population of Sindh, to indicate the existing risk of cardiovascular diseases. Material and Methods: Study was conducted at Liaquat University of Medical & Health Sciences, in the cities of Jamshoro and Hyderabad of Sindh. Blood samples from 300 healthy individuals were collected in fasting condition, out them 100 were from rural population, 100 were urban while 100 were used as control group. The biochemistry of these samples was obtained by the analysis of total Cholesterol, high density lipoprotein Cholesterol (HDL), low-density lipoprotein Cholesterol (LDL) and Triglycerides using kit method on Analyzer Clinical Chemistry. Results and Conclusion: Serum levels of total cholesterol, Triglycerides, and LDL cholesterol were significantly raised in the rural and urban males, whereas HDL cholesterol was decreased as compared to the Healthy controls that indicated significant risk of CVD. Urban population was with more risk of CVD and male gender in both groups was at more risk. The worst lipid profile in gender wise distribution was observed in male gender of urban population with highest Total Cholesterol/HDL Ratio while female gender also shown moderate risk of CVD with highest LDL/HDL Ratio.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, lipid profiles, urban and rural population, LDL/HDL Ratio

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Authors: Rashmi Raghunandan, Sanjana Shankar, Rakshitha K. Bhat

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Social media contributes a vast amount of data and information about individuals to the internet. This project will greatly reduce the need for unnecessary manual analysis of large and diverse social media profiles by filtering out and combining the useful information from various social media profiles, eliminating irrelevant data. It differs from the existing social media aggregators in that it does not provide a consolidated view of various profiles. Instead, it provides consolidated INFORMATION derived from the subject’s posts and other activities. It also allows analysis over multiple profiles and analytics based on several profiles. We strive to provide a query system to provide a natural language answer to questions when a user does not wish to go through the entire profile. The information provided can be filtered according to the different use cases it is used for.

Keywords: social network, analysis, Facebook, Linkedin, git, big data

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Authors: Siti Rohana Mohd Yatim, Ku Halim Ku Hamid, Kamariah Noor Ismail, Zulkifli Abdul Rashid

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The aim of this study is to investigate odour emission profiles from storage of food waste and to assess the potential health risk caused by exposure to volatile compounds. Food waste decomposition process was conducted for 14 days and kept at 20°C and 30°C in self-made bioreactor. VOCs emissions from both samples were collected at different stages of decomposition starting at day 0, day 1, day 3, day 5, day 7, day 10, day 12 and day 14. It was analyzed using TD-GC/MS. Findings showed that various VOCs were released during decomposition of food waste. Compounds produced were influenced by time, temperature and the physico-chemical characteristics of the compounds. The most abundant compound released was dimethyl disulfide. Potential health risk of exposure to this compound is represented by hazard ratio, HR, calculated at 1.6 x 1011. Since HR equal to or less than 1.0 is considered negligible risk, this indicates that the compound posed a potential risk to human health.

Keywords: volatile organic compounds, decomposition process, food waste, health risk

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Authors: Mohammed El-Arbi Khalfallah, Mohamed Lakhdar Hadji

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Managing and controlling risk is a topic research in the world of finance. Before a risky situation, the stakeholders need to do comparison according to the positions and actions, and financial institutions must take measures of a particular market risk and credit. In this work, we study a model of risk measure in finance: Value at Risk (VaR), which is a new tool for measuring an entity's exposure risk. We explain the concept of value at risk, your average, tail, and describe the three methods for computing: Parametric method, Historical method, and numerical method of Monte Carlo. Finally, we briefly describe advantages and disadvantages of the three methods for computing value at risk.

Keywords: average value at risk, conditional value at risk, tail value at risk, value at risk

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Authors: Asma Qudrat, Abid Ullah, Rafi Ullah, Ali Raza, Shah Zeb, Syed Ali Shan Ul-Haq, Shahkar Ahmed Shah, Attiya Hameed Khan, Saad Zaheer, Umama Qasim, Kiran Jamal, Zahoor khan

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Objectives: Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the major public health issue associated with high mortality and morbidity rate worldwide. Young patients with ACS have unique characteristics with different demographic profiles and risk factors. The precise diagnosis and early risk stratification is important in guiding treatment and predicting the prognosis of young patients with ACS. To evaluate the associated demographics, risk factors, and outcomes profile of ACS in young age patients. Methods: The research follow a retrospective design, the single centre study of patients diagnosis with the first event of ACS in young age (>18 and <40) were included. Data collection included demographic profiles, risk factors, and in-hospital outcomes of young ACS patients. The patient’s data was retrieved through Electronic Medical Records (EMR) of Peshawar Institute of Cardiology (PIC), and all characteristic were assessed. Results: In this study, 77% were male, and 23% were female patients. The risk factors were assessed with CAD and shown significant results (P < 0.01). The most common presentation was STEMI, with (45%) most in ACS young patients. The angiographic pattern showed single vessel disease (SVD) in 49%, double vessel disease (DVD) in 17% and triple vessel disease (TVD) was found in 10%, and Left Artery Disease (LAD) (54%) was present to be the most common involved artery. Conclusion: It is concluded that the male sex was predominant in ACS young age patients. SVD was the common coronary angiographic finding. Risk factors showed significant results towards CAD and common presentations.

Keywords: coronary artery disease, Non-ST elevation myocardial infarction, ST elevation myocardial infarction, unstable angina, acute coronary syndrome

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Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

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This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

Keywords: ergonomics, musculoskeletal disorders, occupational diseases, risk factors

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Authors: Emmanuel U. Ohaegbulem, Felix N. Nwobi

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Alternative and simple computational arrangements in carrying out multivariate profile analysis when more than two groups (populations) are involved are presented. These arrangements have been demonstrated to not only yield equivalent results for the test statistics (the Wilks lambdas), but they have less computational efforts relative to other arrangements so far presented in the literature; in addition to being quite simple and easy to apply.

Keywords: coincident profiles, g-group profile analysis, level profiles, parallel profiles, repeated measures MANOVA

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Authors: Mariem Saadi, Sabri Kanzari, Adel Zghibi

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In semi-arid areas like the Kairouan region, the constant irrigation with saline water and the overuse of groundwater resources, soils and aquifers salinization has become an increasing concern. In this study, a methodology has been developed to evaluate the groundwater contamination risk based on the unsaturated zone hydraulic properties. Two soil profiles with different ranges of salinity, one located in the north of the plain and another one in the south of plain (each 30 m deep) and both characterized by direct recharge of the aquifer were chosen. Simulations were conducted with Hydrus-1D code using measured precipitation data for the period 1998-2003 and calculated evapotranspiration for both chosen profiles. Four combinations of initial conditions of water content and salt concentration were used for the simulation process in order to find the best match between simulated and measured values. The success of the calibration of Hydrus-1D allowed the investigation of some scenarios in order to assess the contamination risk under different natural conditions. The aquifer risk contamination is related to the natural conditions where it increased while facing climate change and temperature increase and decreased in the presence of a clay layer in the unsaturated zone. Hydrus-1D was a useful tool to predict the groundwater level and quality in the case of a direct recharge and in the absence of any information related to the soil layers except for the texture.

Keywords: Hydrus-1D, Kairouan, salinization, semi-arid region, solute transport, unsaturated zone

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Authors: N. Sateesh, C. S. P. Rao, K. Satyanarayana, C. Rajashekar

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This paper proposes a development of a CAD/CAM system for complex profiles of various machine members using a synthetic curve i.e. B-spline. Conventional methods in designing and manufacturing of complex profiles are tedious and time consuming. Even programming those on a computer numerical control (CNC) machine can be a difficult job because of the complexity of the profiles. The system developed provides graphical and numerical representation B-spline profile for any given input. In this paper, the system is applicable to represent a cam profile with B-spline and attempt is made to improve the follower motion.

Keywords: plate-cams, cam profile, b-spline, computer numerical control (CNC), computer aided design and computer aided manufacturing (CAD/CAM), R-D-R-D (rise-dwell-return-dwell)

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Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

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The article demonstrates on a case study how it is possible to identify MSD risk. It is based on a dissertation risk identification model of occupational diseases formation in relation to the work activity that determines what risk can endanger workers who are exposed to the specific risk factors. It is evaluated based on statistical calculations. These risk factors are main cause of upper-extremities musculoskeletal disorders.

Keywords: case study, upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders, ergonomics, risk identification

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Authors: Amel Hannech, Mehdi Adda, Hamid Mcheick

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In this paper, we propose a generic model of user profile integrating several elements that may positively impact the research process. We exploit the classical behavior of users and integrate a delimitation process of their research activities into several research sessions enriched with contextual and temporal information, which allows reflecting the current interests of these users in every period of time and infer data freshness. We argue that the annotation of resources gives more transparency on users' needs. It also strengthens social links among resources and users, and can so increase the scope of the user profile. Based on this idea, we integrate the social tagging practice in order to exploit the social users' behavior to enrich their profiles. These profiles are then integrated into a recommendation system in order to predict the interesting personalized items of users allowing to assist them in their researches and further enrich their profiles. In this recommendation, we provide users new research experiences.

Keywords: user profiles, topical ontology, contextual information, folksonomies, tags' clusters, data freshness, association rules, data recommendation

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Authors: Kevin Molina, Daniel Ortega, Manuel Martinez, Andres Gonzalez-Estrada, William Pinto

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Due to the increasing environmental impact, the wind energy is getting strong. This research studied the relationship between the power produced by a horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT) and the aerodynamic profiles used for its construction. The analysis is studied using the Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD), presenting the parallel between the energy generated by a turbine designed with selected profiles and another one optimized. For the study, a selection process was carried out from profile NACA 6 digits recommended by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for the construction of this type of turbines. The selection was taken into account different characteristics of the wind (speed and density) and the profiles (aerodynamic coefficients Cl and Cd to different Reynolds and incidence angles). From the selected profiles, was carried out a sensitivity analysis optimization process between its geometry and the aerodynamic forces that are induced on it. The 3D model of the turbines was realized using the Blade Element Momentum method (BEM) and both profiles. The flow fields on the turbines were simulated, obtaining the forces induced on the blade, the torques produced and an increase of 3% in power due to the optimized profiles. Therefore, the results show that the sensitivity analysis optimization process can assist to increment the wind turbine power.

Keywords: blade element momentum, blade, fluid structure interaction, horizontal axis wind turbine, profile design

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Authors: Ruchi Agarwal, Jake Ansell

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Austerity impacts on all aspects of society. Companies into the future will have to be more capable of dealing with the risks they face. Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) has widely been accepted in recent years as an approach to manage risks within businesses. ERM attempts to tackle risk holistically with gains from opportunities in a managing risk and reduction in the risk of failure. The paper reviews merits and demerits of approaches to risk management in regard to antifragility. A qualitative study has investigated current practices and the problems with ERM implementation by interviewing over 25 chief risk officers and senior management. The findings indicate the gap in ERM description, understanding, and implementation. The paper suggests risk learning and expertise knowledge supports development of effective enterprise risk management by designing systems with inherent resilience.

Keywords: risk management, interviews, antifragility, failure

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Authors: Alaa Koaik, Bruno Jurkiewiez, Sylvain Bel

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Recently, the use of GFRP pultruded profiles increased in the domain of civil engineering especially in the construction of sandwiched slabs and footbridges. However, under heavy loads, the risk of using these profiles increases due to their high deformability and instability as a result of their weak stiffness and orthotropic nature. A practical solution proposes the assembly of these profiles with concrete slabs to create a stiffer hybrid element to support higher loads. The connection of these two elements is established either by traditional means of steel studs (bolting in our case) or bonding technique. These two techniques have their advantages and disadvantages regarding the mechanical behavior and in-situ implementation. This paper presents experimental results of interface characterization and bending behavior of two hybrid beams, PB7 and PB8, designed and constructed using both connection techniques. The results obtained are exploited to design and build a hybrid footbridge BPBP1 which is tested within service limits (elastic domain). Analytical methods are also developed to analyze the behavior of these structures in the elastic range and the ultimate phase. Comparisons show acceptable differences mainly due to the sensitivity of the GFRP moduli as well as the non-linearity of concrete elements.

Keywords: analytical model, concrete, flexural behavior, GFRP pultruded profile, hybrid structure, interconnection slip, push-out

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Authors: Mohhamed Yassine Baroudi, Abdelkrim Benammar, Fethi Tarik Bendimerad

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This paper proposes software architecture for dynamical service adaptation. The services are constituted by reusable software components. The adaptation’s goal is to optimize the service function of their execution context. For a first step, the context will take into account just the user needs but other elements will be added. A particular feature in our proposition is the profiles that are used not only to describe the context’s elements but also the components itself. An adapter analyzes the compatibility between all these profiles and detects the points where the profiles are not compatibles. The same Adapter search and apply the possible adaptation solutions: component customization, insertion, extraction or replacement.

Keywords: adaptative service, software component, service, dynamic adaptation

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Authors: In Hee Shim, Dong Sik Bae

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Introduction: Obesity and unfavorable lipid profile may be linked to depressive disorders. This study compared the levels of obesity, lipid profiles and depression severity of patients with depressive disorders. Methods: This study included 156 patients diagnosed with a depressive disorder who were hospitalized between March 2012 and February 2016. The patients were categorized into mild to moderate and severe depressive groups, based on Hamilton Depression Rating Scale scores (Mild to moderate depression 8-23 vs. severe depression ≥ 24). The charts of the patients were reviewed to evaluate body mass index and lipid profiles, including total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, and triglycerides (TG), confounding factors, such as other general medical disorders (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and dyslipidemia), except smoking status (insufficient data). Demographic and clinical characteristics, such as age, sex, comorbidities, family history of mood disorders, psychotic features, and prescription patterns were also assessed. Results: Compared to the mild to the moderate depressive group, patients with severe depression had significantly lower rate of male and comorbidity. The patients with severe depression had a significantly lower TG than patients in the mild to moderate depressive group. After adjustment for the sex and comorbidity, there were no significant differences between the two groups in terms of the obesity and lipid profiles, including TG. Conclusion: These results did not show a significant difference in the association between obesity, lipid profiles and the depression severity. The role of obesity and lipid profiles in the pathophysiology of depression remains to be clarified.

Keywords: depression, HAM-D, lipid profiles, obesity

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Authors: Najeebah Almahmeed

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Risk Management is an evolving subject among organizations that include corporations, governments, non-governmental organizations, and not-for-profit corporations. In order to enhance awareness around the importance of Risk Management and make sure everyone is using it in their day-to-day job, the Risk Culture topic has emerged and gained importance not only in the Finance Sector but also in the National Oil Companies in Kuwait. Risk Culture can be defined as the shared beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors within a company that guide its approach to managing risks. It acts as a connecting force that links policies, procedures, and individuals, influencing how risks are understood and tackled through activities. In this research, benefits of Risk Culture are shared, guidelines are presented to promote a risk aware culture, and fully embed and enforce Risk-based processes and procedures. Moreover, this research demonstrates methodologies of measuring the Risk Culture using specific dimensions and clusters.

Keywords: clusters, dimensions, national oil companies, risk culture, risk management

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Authors: Abdessemed Zineb, Atia Yahia, Yeza Salima

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Water is self-purified by activated sludge process which makes its uniqueness. The main goal is the microbial biocenosis study of the input and output water of the waste water treatment system plant Timgad. 89.47% of the identified biocenosis belongs to ɤ-Proteobacteria while the remaining 10.52 % is equally divided between α-Proteobacteria and β-Proteobacteria. The antibiotics susceptibility profiles reveal that over 30 % are wild strains while the penicillinases are often present (11.30-20 %) with also other profiles. This proportion is worrying that the water discharged join the Oued Soltez used for irrigation. This disadvantage involves the installation of a chlorination step.

Keywords: activated sludge, biocenosis, antibiotics profiles, penicillinases, physic-chemical quality

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Authors: Pui Yong Leo, Normy Maziah Mohd Said

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Change of global economy landscape and business environment has led to companies’ decision to go global and enter international markets. As the companies go beyond the comfort zone (i.e. investing in the home country), it is important to ensure a comprehensive risk assessment is carried out. This paper describes a standardized approach for international investment, ensuring identification of risk, risk appetite, risk rating, risk treatment and mitigation plans for respective international investment proposal. The standardized approach is divided into three (3) stages as follows: Stage 1 – Preliminary Risk profiling; with the objective to gauge exposure to countries and high level risk factors as first level assessment. Stage 2 – Risk Parameters; with the objective to define risk appetite for the international investment from the perspective of likelihood and impact. Stage 3 – Detailed Risk Assessments; with the objectives to assess in detail any triggered elements from Stage 1, and project specific risks. The final output will include the mitigation plans for the identified risks for the total investment. Example will be given in this paper to show how comprehensive risk assessment is carried out for an international investment in power energy sector.

Keywords: international investment, mitigation plans, risk appetite, risk assessment

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Authors: Natalia Limones, Javier Marzo, Marcus Wijnen, Aleix Serrat-Capdevila

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In this research we developed a structured approach for the detection of areas under the highest levels of drought risk that is suitable for data-scarce environments. The methodology is based on recent scientific outcomes and methods and can be easily adapted to different contexts in successive exercises. The research reviews the history of drought in the south of Angola and characterizes the experienced hazard in the episode from 2012, focusing on the meteorological and the hydrological drought types. Only global open data information coming from modeling or remote sensing was used for the description of the hydroclimatological variables since there is almost no ground data in this part of the country. Also, the study intends to portray the socioeconomic vulnerabilities and the exposure to the phenomenon in the region to fully understand the risk. As a result, a map of the areas under the highest risk in the south of the country is produced, which is one of the main outputs of this work. It was also possible to confirm that the set of indicators used revealed different drought vulnerability profiles in the South of Angola and, as a result, several varieties of priority areas prone to distinctive impacts were recognized. The results demonstrated that most of the region experienced a severe multi-year meteorological drought that triggered an unprecedent exhaustion of the surface water resources, and that the majority of their socioeconomic impacts started soon after the identified onset of these processes.

Keywords: drought risk, exposure, hazard, vulnerability

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Authors: Baobao Li

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Operational risk covers all operations of commercial banks and has a close relationship with the bank’s internal control. But in the commercial banks' management practice, internal control is always separated from the operational risk measurement. With the increasing of operational risk events in recent years, operational risk is paid more and more attention by regulators and banks’ managements. The paper first discussed the relationship between internal control and operational risk management and used CVaR-POT model to measure operational risk, and then put forward a modified measurement method (to use operational risk assessment results to modify the measurement results of the CVaR-POT model). The paper also analyzed the necessity and rationality of this method. The method takes into consideration the influence of internal control, improves the accuracy and effectiveness of operational risk measurement and save the economic capital for commercial banks, avoiding the drawbacks of using some mainstream models one-sidedly.

Keywords: commercial banks, internal control, operational risk, risk measurement

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Authors: B. A. Behrens, H. J. Maier, A. Neumann, J. Moritz, S. Hübner, T. Gretzki, F. Nürnberger, A. Spiekermeier

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Press-hardened profiles are used e.g. for automotive applications in order to improve light weight construction due to the high reachable strength. The application of interior water-air spray cooling contributes to significantly reducing the cycle time in the production of heat-treated tubes. This paper describes a new manufacturing method for producing press-hardened hollow profiles by means of an additional interior cooling based on a water-air spray. Furthermore, this paper provides the results of thorough investigations on the properties of press-hardened tubes in dependence of varying spray parameters.

Keywords: 22MnB5, press hardening, water-air spray cooling, hollow profiles, tubes

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Authors: Rashid Masoud Ali Al-Mazrui, Ramadhani Mashaka Shabani

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Islamic banks and financial institutions are exposed to the same risks as conventional banking. These risks include the rate return risk, credit or market risk, liquidity risk, and operational risk among others. However, being a financial institution that operates Islamic banking and finance operations, there is additional risk associated with its operations different from conventional finance, such as displacing commercial risk. They face Shari'ah compliance risks because of their failure to follow Shari'ah principles. To have proper mitigation and risk management, banks should have proper risk management policies to mitigate risks. This paper aims to study the risk management taken by Islamic banks in comparison with conventional banks. Also, the study evaluates the provisions for risk management taken by selected Islamic banks and conventional banks. The study employs qualitative analysis using secondary data by applying a content analysis approach with a sample size of 4 Islamic banks and four conventional banks ranging from 2010 to 2020. We find that these banks all use the same technique, except for the associated risk. The extra ways are used, but only for additional risks that are available to Islamic banking and finance.

Keywords: emerging risk, risk management, Islamic banking, conventional bank

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Authors: Min Woo Lee, Kyoung Seok Kim

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We made an effort to resolve a research question, which is about the relationship between employees’ corporate social responsibility (CSR) participation and their organizational citizenship behavior (OCB), and an effect of profiles of job characteristics. To test the question, we divided sample into two groups that have the profiles of each job characteristic. One group had high level on the five dimensions of job characteristic (D group), whereas another group had low level on the dimensions (R group). As a result, regression analyses showed that the relationship between CSR participation and OCB is positive in the D group, but the relationship is not significant in the R group. The results raise a question to the argument of recent studies showing that there is positive relationship between the CSR and the OCB. Implications and limitations are demonstrated in the conclusion.

Keywords: CSR, OCB, job characteristics, cluster analysis

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Authors: Cinzia Carrodano, Dimitri Konstantas

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Risk is part of our lives. In today’s society risk is connected to our safety and safety has become a major priority in our life. Each person lives his/her life based on the evaluation of the risk he/she is ready to accept and sustain, and the level of safety he/she wishes to reach, based on highly personal criteria. The assessment of risk a person takes in a complex environment and the impact of actions of other people’actions and events on our perception of risk are alements to be considered. The concept of Holistic Risk Assessment (HRA) aims in developing a methodology and a model that will allow us to take into account elements outside the direct influence of the individual, and provide a personalized risk assessment. The concept is based on the fact that in the near future, we will be able to gather and process extremely large amounts of data about an individual and his/her environment in real time. The interaction and correlation of these data is the key element of the holistic risk assessment. In this paper, we present the HRA concept and describe the most important elements and considerations.

Keywords: continuous data, dynamic risk, holistic risk assessment, risk concept

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Authors: Beng Yew Low, Cher Liang Cha, Cheng Yong Teoh

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Due to a lack of continual assessment or grade related data, identifying first-year engineering students in a polytechnic education at risk of failing is challenging. Our experience over the years tells us that there is no strong correlation between having good entry grades in Mathematics and the Sciences and excelling in hardcore engineering subjects. Hence, identifying students at risk of failure cannot be on the basis of entry grades in Mathematics and the Sciences alone. These factors compound the difficulty of early identification and intervention. This paper describes the development of a predictive analytics model in the early detection of students at risk of failing and evaluates its effectiveness. Data from continual assessments conducted in term one, supplemented by data of student psychological profiles such as interests and study habits, were used. Three classification techniques, namely Logistic Regression, K Nearest Neighbour, and Random Forest, were used in our predictive model. Based on our findings, Random Forest was determined to be the strongest predictor with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.994. Correspondingly, the Accuracy, Precision, Recall, and F-Score were also highest among these three classifiers. Using this Random Forest Classification technique, students at risk of failure could be identified at the end of term one. They could then be assigned to a Learning Support Programme at the beginning of term two. This paper gathers the results of our findings. It also proposes further improvements that can be made to the model.

Keywords: continual assessment, predictive analytics, random forest, student psychological profile

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Authors: L. Mercier, D. Beladjine, K. Beddiar

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The digital transition of building in France brings many changes which some have been able to face very quickly, while others are struggling to find their place and the interest that BIM can bring in their profession. BIM today is already adopted or initiated by construction professionals. However, this change, which can be drastic for some, prevents them from integrating it definitively. This is the case with architects. The profession is shared on the practice of BIM in its exercise. The risk of not adopting this new working method now and of not wanting to switch to its new digital tools leads us to question the future of the profession in view of the gap that is likely to be created within project management. In order to deal with the subject efficiently, our work was based on a documentary watch on BIM and then on the profession of architect, which allowed us to establish links on these two subjects. The observation of the economic model towards which the agencies tend and the trend of the sought after profiles made it possible to develop the opportunities and the brakes likely to impact the future of the profession of architect. The centralization of research directs work towards the conclusion that the model implemented by companies does not allow to integrate BIM within their structure. A solution hypothesis was then issued, focusing on the development of agencies through the diversity of profiles, skills to be integrated internally with the aim of diversifying their skills, and their business practices. In order to address this hypothesis of a multidisciplinary agency model, we conducted a survey of architectural firms. It is built on the model of Anglo-Saxon countries, which do not have the same functioning in comparison to the French model. The results obtained showed a risk of gradual disappearance on the market from small agencies in favor of those who will have and could take this BIM working method. This is why the architectural profession must, first of all, look at what is happening within its training before absolutely wanting to diversify the profiles to integrate into its structure. This directs the study on the training of architects. The schools of French architects are generally behind schedule if we allow the comparison to the schools of engineers. The latter is currently experiencing a slight improvement with the emergence of masters and BIM options during the university course. If the training of architects develops towards learning BIM and the agencies have the desire to integrate different but complementary profiles, then they will develop their skills internally and therefore open their profession to new functions. The place of BIM Management on projects will allow the architect to remain in control of the project because of their overall vision of the project. In addition, the integration of BIM and more generally of the life cycle analysis of the structure will make it possible to guarantee eco-design or eco-construction by approaching the constraints of sustainable development omnipresent on the planet.

Keywords: building information modelling, BIM, BIM management, BIM manager, BIM architect

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Authors: Emily Simango, T. Chitura

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Background: Bovine brucellosis is among the most neglected zoonotic diseases in developing countries, where it is endemic and a growing challenge to public health. The development of cost-effective control measures for the disease can only be affirmed by the knowledge of the disease epidemiology and the ability to define its risk profiles. The aim of the study was to document the trend of bovine brucellosis and the control measures adopted following reported cases during the period 2014 to 2019 in South Africa. Methods: Data on confirmed cases of bovine brucellosis was retrieved from the website of the World Organisation of Animal Health (WOAH). Data was analysed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (IBM SPSS, 2022) version 29.0. Descriptive analysis (frequencies and percentages) and the Analysis of variance (ANOVA) were utilized for statistical significance (p<0.05). Results: The data retrieved in our study revealed an overall average bovine brucellosis prevalence of 8.48. There were statistically significant differences in bovine brucellosis prevalence across the provinces for the years 2016 and 2019 (p≥0.05), with the Eastern Cape Province having the highest prevalence in both instances. Documented control measures for the disease were limited to killing and disposal of disease cases as well as vaccination of susceptible animals. Conclusion: Bovine brucellosis is real in South Africa, with the risk profiles differing across the provinces. Information on brucellosis control measures in South Africa, as reported to the WOAH, is not comprehensive.

Keywords: zoonotic, endemic, Eastern Cape province, vaccination

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Authors: Olaniyi O. Omoyajowo

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To be successful in today’s competitive global environment, manufacturing industry must be able to respond quickly to changes in technology. These changes in technology introduce new risks and hazards. The management of risk/hazard in a manufacturing process recommends method through which the success rate of an organization can be increased. Thus, there is a continual need for manufacturing industries to invest significant amount of resources in risk management, which in turn optimizes the production output and profitability of any manufacturing industry (if implemented properly). To help improve the existing risk prevention and mitigation practices in Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) in Nigeria Manufacturing Industries (NMI), the researcher embarks on this research to develop a systematic Risk Management process.

Keywords: manufacturing management, risk, risk management, SMEs

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