Search results for: residual risk

Authors: Farah Lazzali, Yamina Ait Meziane

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Recent earthquakes in Algeria have demonstrated the need for seismic risk reduction. In fact, the latest major earthquake that affected the Algiers-Boumerdes region in 2003 caused excessive levels of loss of life and property. Economic, social and environmental damage were also experienced. During the three days following the event, a relatively weak coordination of public authority was noted. Many localities did not receive any relief due to lack of information from concerned authorities and delay in connecting damaged roads. Following this event, Algerian government and civil society has recognized the urgent need for an appropriate and immediate seismic risk mitigation strategy. This paper describes procedures for emergency response following past earthquakes in Algeria and provides a brief review of risk mitigation activities since 1980. The paper also aims to provide measures to reduce earthquake risk through general strategy and practical implementation of the mitigation actions.

Keywords: earthquake, hazard, prevention, strategy, risk reduction

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Authors: Frank Hespeler, Giuseppe Loiacono

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We propose measures for systemic risk generated through intra-sectorial interdependencies in the hedge fund sector. These measures are based on variations in the average cross-effects of funds showing significant interdependency between their individual returns and the moments of the sector’s return distribution. The proposed measures display a high ability to identify periods of financial distress, are robust to modifications in the underlying econometric model and are consistent with intuitive interpretation of the results.

Keywords: hedge funds, systemic risk, vector autoregressive model, risk monitoring

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Authors: Olakunle Felix Adekunle

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Risk management is recognised as an essential tool to tackle the inevitable uncertainty associated with business and projects at all levels. But it frequently fails to meet expectations, with projects continuing to run late, over budget or under performing, and business is not gaining the expected benefits. The evident disconnect which often occurs between strategic vision and tactical project delivery typically arises from poorly defined project objectives and inadequate attention to the proactive management of risks that could affect those objectives. One of the main failings in the traditional approach to risk management arises from a narrow focus on the downside, restricted to the technical or operational field, addressing tactical threats to processes, performance or people. This shortcoming can be overcome by widening the scope of risk management to encompass both strategic risks and upside opportunities, creating an integrated approach which can bridge the gap between strategy and tactics. Integrated risk management addresses risk across a variety of levels in the organisation, including strategy and tactics, and covering both opportunity and threat. Effective implementation of integrated risk management can produce a number of benefits to the organisation which are not available from the typical limited-scope risk process. This paper explores how to expand risk management to deliver strategic advantage while retaining its use as a tactical tool.

Keywords: risk management, success, organization, strategy, project, tactis, vision

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Authors: Sarit Gideoni Cohen

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The aim of the study was to examine possible risk pathway which initiated by the distal risk factors of insecure attachment to the mother, the father and peers and then developed by means of proximal risk factors: stressful life events and emotional distress. 275 participants (aged 13-26) from high-schools, youth groups and university were requited. Twenty-two percent participants reported at least one episode of self-injury. The relationship between paternal and peer attachment were partly mediated by stressful life events and depressive symptoms. Paternal and peer attachment influences during adolescence as contributing to risk pathway for self-injury were acknowledged.

Keywords: self-injury, attachment, depression, stressful life-events, adolescence

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Authors: Francesco Venuti, Simona Alfiero

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The aim of this paper is to develop an empirical research on the nature and consequences of corporate governance on Eurozone Insurance Industry risk taking attitude. More particularly, we analyzed the effect of public ownership on risk taking with respect to privately held Insurance Companies. We also analyzed the effects on risk taking attitude of different degrees of ownership concentration, directors compensation, and the dimension/diversity of the Board of Directors. Our results provide quite strong evidence that, coherently with the Agency Theory, publicly traded insurance companies with more concentrated ownership are less risky than the corresponding privately held.

Keywords: agency theory, corporate governance, insurance companies, risk taking

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Authors: Jason Hoellwarth, Atiya Oomatia, Anuj Chavan, Kevin Tetsworth, Munjed Al Muderis

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Introduction: Percutaneous EndoProsthetic Osseointegration for Limbs (PEPOL) facilitates improved quality of life (QOL) and objective mobility for most amputees discontent with their traditional socket prosthesis (TSP) experience. Some amputees desiring PEPOL have residual bone much shorter than the currently marketed press-fit implant lengths of 14-16 cm, potentially a risk for failure to integrate. We report on the techniques used, complications experienced, the management of those complications, and the overall mobility outcomes of seven patients who had femur distraction osteogenesis (DO) with a Freedom nail followed by PEPOL. Method: Retrospective evaluation of a prospectively maintained database identified nine patients (5 females) who had transfemoral DO in preparation for PEPOL with two years of follow-up after PEPOL. Six patients had traumatic causes of amputation, one had perinatal complications, one was performed to manage necrotizing fasciitis and one was performed as a result of osteosarcoma. Result: The average age at which DO commenced was 39.4±15.9 years, and seven patients had their amputation more than ten years prior (average 25.5±18.8 years). The residual femurs, on average, started at 102.2±39.7 mm and were lengthened 58.1±20.7 mm, 98±45% of the goal (99±161% of the original bone length). Five patients (56%) had a complication requiring additional surgery: four events of inadequate regeneration were managed with continued lengthening to the desired goal followed by autograft placement harvested from contralateral femur reaming; one patient had the cerclage wires break, which required operative replacement. All patients had osseointegration performed at 355±123 days after the initial lengthening nail surgery. One patient had K-level >2 before DO, at a mean of 3.4±0.6 (2.6-4.4) years following osseointegration. Six patients had K-level >2. The 6-Minute Walk Test remained unchanged (267±56 vs. 308 ± 117 meters). Patient self-rating of prosthesis function, problems, and amputee situation did not significantly change from before DO to after osseointegration. Six patients required additional surgery following osseointegration: six to remove fixation plates placed to maintain distraction osteogenesis length at osseointegration; two required irritation and debridement for infection. Conclusion: Extremely short residual femurs, which make TSP use troublesome, can be lengthened with externally controlled telescoping nails and successfully achieve osseointegration. However, it is imperative to counsel patients that additional surgery to address inadequate regeneration or to remove painful hardware used to maintain fixation may be necessary. This may improve the amputee’s expectations before beginning a potentially arduous process.

Keywords: osseointegration, limb lengthening, quality of life, amputation

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Authors: Y. K. Park, B. K. Kim, J. W. Lee, S. J. Lee

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To assess the risk of the underground structures and surrounding ground, we collect basic data by the engineering method of measurement, exploration and surveys and, derive the risk through proper analysis and each assessment for urban railroad underground structures and surrounding ground including station inflow. Basic data are obtained by the fiber-optic sensors, MEMS sensors, water quantity/quality sensors, tunnel scanner, ground penetrating radar, light weight deflectometer, and are evaluated if they are more than the proper value or not. Based on these data, we analyze the risk level of urban railroad underground structures and surrounding ground. And we develop the risk management system to manage efficiently these data and to support a convenient interface environment at input/output of data.

Keywords: urban railroad, underground structures, ground subsidence, station inflow, risk

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Authors: A. Shirazibeheshti, T. Radwan, A. Ettefaghian, G. Wilson, C. Luca, Farbod Khanizadeh

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Anticholinergic medication has been associated with events such as falls, delirium, and cognitive impairment in older patients. To further assess this, anticholinergic burden scores have been developed to quantify risk. A risk model based on clustering was deployed in a healthcare management system to cluster patients into multiple risk groups according to anticholinergic burden scores of multiple medicines prescribed to patients to facilitate clinical decision-making. To do so, anticholinergic burden scores of drugs were extracted from the literature, which categorizes the risk on a scale of 1 to 3. Given the patients’ prescription data on the healthcare database, a weighted anticholinergic risk score was derived per patient based on the prescription of multiple anticholinergic drugs. This study was conducted on over 300,000 records of patients currently registered with a major regional UK-based healthcare provider. The weighted risk scores were used as inputs to an unsupervised learning algorithm (mean-shift clustering) that groups patients into clusters that represent different levels of anticholinergic risk. To further evaluate the performance of the model, any association between the average risk score within each group and other factors such as socioeconomic status (i.e., Index of Multiple Deprivation) and an index of health and disability were investigated. The clustering identifies a group of 15 patients at the highest risk from multiple anticholinergic medication. Our findings also show that this group of patients is located within more deprived areas of London compared to the population of other risk groups. Furthermore, the prescription of anticholinergic medicines is more skewed to female than male patients, indicating that females are more at risk from this kind of multiple medications. The risk may be monitored and controlled in well artificial intelligence-equipped healthcare management systems.

Keywords: anticholinergic medicines, clustering, deprivation, socioeconomic status

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Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki, Takeshi Hiromatsu

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Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Therefore, this paper provides a model which supports the selection of measures by applying multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. Additionally, a list of measures is also provided to make the selection easier and more effective without any leakage of measures.

Keywords: information security risk treatment, selection of risk measures, risk acceptance, multi-objective optimization

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Authors: Qing Cao

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Generally speaking, China has a relatively high level of intellectual property (IP) infringement. Risk assessment is indispensable in the strategic planning process. To complement the current literature in international business, the paper sheds the light on how to assess IP risk for foreign companies in planning market entry to China. Evaluating internal and external IP environment, proposed in the paper, consists of external analysis, internal analysis and further internal analysis. Through position the company’s IP environment, the risk assessment approach enables the foreign companies to either build the corresponding IP strategies or abort the entry plan beforehand to minimize the IP risks.

Keywords: intellectual property, IP environment, risk assessment

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Authors: Diyaolu Babajide Olufemi, Oyerinde Oyewole Olusesan

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This study examined the effect of sex education training programs on the knowledge and practice of sexual risk behavior among secondary school adolescents in Ibadan North Local Government area of Oyo State. A total of 105 students were sampled from two schools in the Local Government area. Seventy students (70) constituted the experimental group while thirty-five (35) constituted the control group. Pretest-Posttest control group quasi-experimental design was adopted. A self-developed questionnaire was used to test participants’ knowledge and practice of sexual risk behavior before and after the training (α=.62, .82 and .74). Analysis indicated a significant effect of sex education training on participants’ knowledge and practice of sexual risk behavior, a significant gender difference in knowledge of sexual risk behavior but no significant age and gender difference in the practice of sexual risk behavior. It was thus concluded that sex education should be taught in schools and emphasized at homes with no age or gender restrictions.

Keywords: early adolescent, health risk, sexual risk behavior, sex education

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Authors: Willie Eselebor

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Environmental governance is not new, but may consist of a series of actions taken to establish sanity and ensure sustainable environment. While there is a growing accord linking disaster risk reduction with the management of environment and natural resources, little is known about failure to act which constitute vulnerability and how improved governance reduces risk globally. The paper reviews emerging trends in the field of application of governance tools and approaches for reducing disaster risk. The Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) enjoin all stakeholders to stimulate the sustainable use and management of ecosystems, which promote the implementation of integrated environmental and natural resource planning that incorporate disaster risk reduction, including structural and non-structural measures, such as integrated management of fragile ecosystems. The methodology adopted is a case study of disaster-prone sites, prompting guided analysis on which hazards are traceable to environmental degradation, why a degraded environment reduces community resilience; how healthy ecosystems provide natural defense, and which opportunities exist to address gaps in reduction of disasters in Nigeria. The paper further analyses the interaction between disaster risk and environmental change. It is established that environmental governance remains a challenge; which implies that there is the need for a shift in traditional approaches to disaster risk management; exploring new initiatives and allowing environmental managers to be docketed as disaster risk managers in context, potentially opening up a window of dialogue on disaster risk management.

Keywords: disaster, ecosystem, environment, risk

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Authors: Ya-Fen Lee, Yun-Yao Chi

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The study aims to explore the relationship between risk perceptions of rockfall and revisit intention using a Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) analysis. A total of 573 valid questionnaires are collected from travelers to Taroko National Park, Taiwan. The findings show the majority of travellers have the medium perception of rockfall risk, and are willing to revisit the Taroko National Park. The revisit intention to Taroko National Park is influenced by hazardous preferences, willingness-to-pay, obstruction and attraction. The risk perception has an indirect effect on revisit intention through influencing willingness-to-pay. The study results can be a reference for mitigation the rockfall disaster.

Keywords: risk perception, rockfall, revisit intention, structural equation modelling

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Authors: Petros Gkotsis, Giorgos Stratidis, Manassis Mitrakas, Anastasios Zouboulis

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This study investigates the use of original and pre-polymerized iron (Fe) reagents compared to the commonly applied polyaluminum chloride (PACl) coagulant for surface water treatment. Applicable coagulants included both ferric chloride (FeCl₃) and ferric sulfate (Fe₂(SO₄)₃) and their pre-polymerized Fe reagents, such as polyferric sulfate (PFS) and polyferric chloride (PFCl). The efficiency of coagulants was evaluated by the removal of natural organic matter (NOM) and suspended solids (SS), which were determined in terms of reducing the UV absorption at 254 nm and turbidity, respectively. The residual metal concentration (Fe and Al) was also measured. Coagulants were added at five concentrations (1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 mg/L) and three pH values (7.0, 7.3 and 7.6). Experiments were conducted in a jar-test device, with two types of synthetic surface water (i.e., of high and low organic strength) which consisted of humic acid (HA) and kaolin at different concentrations (5 mg/L and 50 mg/L). After the coagulation/flocculation process, clean water was separated with filters of pore size 0.45 μm. Filtration was also conducted before the addition of coagulants in order to compare the ‘net’ effect of the coagulation/flocculation process on the examined parameters (UV at 254 nm, turbidity, and residual metal concentration). Results showed that the use of PACl resulted in the highest removal of humics for both types of surface water. For the surface water of high organic strength (humic acid-kaolin, 50 mg/L-50 mg/L), the highest removal of humics was observed at the highest coagulant dosage of 5 mg/L and at pH=7. On the contrary, turbidity was not significantly affected by the coagulant dosage. However, the use of PACl decreased turbidity the most, especially when the surface water of high organic strength was employed. As expected, the application of coagulation/flocculation prior to filtration improved NOM removal but slightly affected turbidity. Finally, the residual Fe concentration (0.01-0.1 mg/L) was much lower than the residual Al concentration (0.1-0.25 mg/L).

Keywords: coagulation/flocculation, iron and aluminum coagulants, metal salts, pre-polymerized coagulants, surface water treatment

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Authors: Muhammad Wasif, Asif Ahmed Shaikh, Sarosh Hashmat Lodi, Muhammad Aslam Bhutto, Riazuddin

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Risk Management System is quite popular in profit- based organizations, health and safety and project management fields since the last few decades. But due to rapidly changing environment and requirement of ISO 9001:2015 standards, public-sector institution, especially higher education institutes are also performing risk assessment to monitor the performance of the institution and aligning it with the latest benchmark. In this context, NED University of Engineering and Technology performed research and developed a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for the risk assessment, its monitoring and control. In this research, risks are broken into the four sources, namely; Internal Academics Risks, External Academics Risks, Internal Non-academic Risks, External Non-academic Risks. Risks are identified by the management at all levels. Severity and likelihood of the risks are assigned based on the previous audit results and the customer complains. Risk Ratings are calculated to orderly arrange the risk according to the Risk Rating, and controls for the risks are designed, which are assigned to the responsible person. At the end of the article, result and analysis on the different sources of risk are discussed in details and the conclusion is drawn. Discussion on few sample risks are presented in this article. Hence it is presented in the research that the Risk Management System can be applied in a Higher Education Institute to effectively control the risks which might affect the scope and Quality Management System of an organization.

Keywords: higher education, quality management system, risk assessment, risk management

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Authors: A. Pontrandolfi, G. Enjolras, F. Capitanio

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The study analyses the strategies Italian farmers use to cope with the risks that face their production. We specifically explore the potential and the limitations of the economic tools for climatic risk management in agriculture of the Common Agricultural Policy 2014-2020, that foresees contributions for economic tools for risk management, in relation to farms’ needs, exposure and vulnerability of agricultural areas to climatic risk. We consider at the farm level approaches to hedge risks in terms of the use of technical tools (agricultural practices, pesticides, fertilizers, irrigation) and economic/financial instruments (insurances, etc.). We develop cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses as well as analyses of correlation that underline the main differences between the way farms adapt their structure and management towards risk. The results show a preference for technical tools, despite the presence of important public aids on economic tools such as insurances. Therefore, there is a strong need for a more effective and integrated risk management policy scheme. Synergies between economic tools and risk reduction actions of a more technical, structural and management nature (production diversification, irrigation infrastructures, technological and management innovations and formation-information-consultancy, etc.) are emphasized.

Keywords: agriculture and climate change, climatic risk management, insurance schemes, farmers' approaches to risk management

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Authors: J. Tamosaitiene

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The article focuses on the identification and classification of key risk management criteria that represent the most important sustainability aspects of the construction industry. The construction sector is one of the most important sectors in Lithuania. Nowadays, the assessment of the risk level of a construction project is especially important for the quality of construction projects, the growth of enterprises and the sector. To establish the most important criteria for successful growth of the sector, a questionnaire for experts was developed. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the expert judgement method and other multicriteria decision making (MCDM) methods were used to develop the hybrid model. The results were used to develop an integrated knowledge system for the measurement of a risk level particular to construction projects. The article presents a practical case that details the developed system, sustainable aspects, and risk assessment.

Keywords: risk, system, model, construction

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Authors: Lamia Hammadi, Abdellah Ait Ouhman, Aomar Ibourk

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It is widely assumed that the case of Customs Supply Chain is classified as a complex system, due to not only the variety and large number of actors, but also their complex structural links, and the interactions between these actors, that’s why this system is subject to various types of Risks. The economic, political and social impacts of those risks are highly detrimental to countries, businesses and the public, for this reason, Risk management in the customs supply chain is becoming a crucial issue to ensure the sustainability, security and safety. The main characteristic of customs risk management approach is determining which goods and means of transport should be examined? To what extend? And where future compliance resources should be directed? The purposes of this article are, firstly to deal with the concept of customs supply chain, secondly present our risk management approach based on Cross Activity Based Costing (ABC) Method as an interactive tool to support decision making in customs risk management. Finally, analysis of case study of Moroccan customs to putting theory into practice and will thus draw together the various elements of a structured and efficient risk management approach.

Keywords: cross ABC method, customs supply chain, risk, risk management

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Authors: Musarrat Jabeen Khan, Uzma Azam, Kainat Umar, Jazba Amber Satti, Aiman Shehzadi, Nimo Omer

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This study aimed to examine the comparison between substance abusers and non-abusers on anxiety, peer pressure, and risk-taking behavior among young adults. The sample consisted of 138 individuals including 64 female and 71 males, age range from 17-35 years, drawn from non-clinical population through convenient sampling. Questionnaire technique was used for the information assortment and the scales were susceptibility to peer pressure (Dieman, Pamella, Shope & Butchart, 1987), Zung self-rating anxiety scale (Zung, 1971), and risk-taking questionnaire (Gullone, Moore, Moss & Boyd, 2000) having alpha reliability of .54, .88, and .80 respectively. Results showed that anxiety negatively correlates with the risk-taking behavior. High level of anxiety stops an individual to involve himself in risk taking activities. Peer pressure have positive correlation with risk-taking behavior. Females are more susceptible to peer pressure irrespective of being abusers or non-abusers as compared to male abusers and non-abusers. Substance abusers have less anxiety as compared to non-abusers but are more susceptible to peer pressure and risk-taking behaviors.

Keywords: substance, substance abuse, anxiety, peer pressure, risk-taking behavior

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Authors: Mike Tsionas

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The paper develops new indices of financial stability based on an explicit model of expected utility maximization by financial institutions subject to the classical technology restrictions of neoclassical production theory. The model can be estimated using standard econometric techniques, like GMM for dynamic panel data and latent factor analysis for the estimation of co-variance matrices. An explicit functional form for the utility function is not needed and we show how measures of risk aversion and prudence (downside risk aversion) can be derived and estimated from the model. The model is estimated using data for Eurozone countries and we focus particularly on (i) the use of the modeling approach as an “early warning mechanism”, (ii) the bank- and country-specific estimates of risk aversion and prudence (downside risk aversion), and (iii) the derivation of a generalized measure of risk that relies on loan-price uncertainty.

Keywords: financial stability, banking, expected utility maximization, sub-prime crisis, financial crisis, eurozone, PIIGS

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Authors: Oguzhan Cepni, Doruk Kucuksarac, M. Hasan Yilmaz

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Risk premium of emerging markets are moving altogether depending on the momentum and shifts in the global risk appetite. However, the magnitudes of these changes in the risk premium of emerging market economies might vary. In this paper, we focus on how global risk factor affects credit default swaps (CDS) premiums of emerging markets using principal component analysis (PCA) and rolling regressions. PCA results indicate that the first common component accounts for almost 76% of common variation in CDS premiums of emerging markets. Additionally, the explanatory power of the first factor seems to be high over sample period. However, the sensitivity to the global risk factor tends to change over time and across countries. In this regard, fixed effects panel regressions are employed to identify the macroeconomic factors driving the heterogeneity across emerging markets. There are two main macroeconomic variables that affect the sensitivity; government debt to GDP and international reserves to GDP. The countries with lower government debt and higher reserves tend to be less subject to the variations in the global risk appetite.

Keywords: emerging markets, principal component analysis, credit default swaps, sovereign risk

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Authors: Roman Graf, Sergiu Gordea, Heather M. Ryan

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This paper presents an approach for easy creation and classification of institutional risk profiles supporting endangerment analysis of file formats. The main contribution of this work is the employment of data mining techniques to support set up of the most important risk factors. Subsequently, risk profiles employ risk factors classifier and associated configurations to support digital preservation experts with a semi-automatic estimation of endangerment group for file format risk profiles. Our goal is to make use of an expert knowledge base, accuired through a digital preservation survey in order to detect preservation risks for a particular institution. Another contribution is support for visualisation of risk factors for a requried dimension for analysis. Using the naive Bayes method, the decision support system recommends to an expert the matching risk profile group for the previously selected institutional risk profile. The proposed methods improve the visibility of risk factor values and the quality of a digital preservation process. The presented approach is designed to facilitate decision making for the preservation of digital content in libraries and archives using domain expert knowledge and values of file format risk profiles. To facilitate decision-making, the aggregated information about the risk factors is presented as a multidimensional vector. The goal is to visualise particular dimensions of this vector for analysis by an expert and to define its profile group. The sample risk profile calculation and the visualisation of some risk factor dimensions is presented in the evaluation section.

Keywords: linked open data, information integration, digital libraries, data mining

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Authors: Amichai Ben ari, Daniella Margalit

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Medical procedures, such as surgery, may have traumatic significance for some children. This study examines the relationship between maltreatment in children and the development Pediatric Medical Traumatic Stress (PMTS). To this end, differences in the level of distress of children after surgery were examined between two groups: children who were maltreated ("children at risk") and children from the control group ("children who are not at risk"). The study involved 230 parents of children who came to the hospital to undergo surgery. Parents filled out demographic questionnaires to measure socioeconomic variables and psychological questionnaires to measure the distress of the child and parent before surgery. After 6 months from the time of surgery, the parents again filled in the questionnaire measuring the child's distress. The results of the study showed that the level of distress experienced by children at risk after surgery was significantly higher relative to children who are not at risk. It was also found that the level of distress experienced by parents of children at risk in relation to their child’s surgery is significantly higher compared to parents of children who are not at risk. Finally, it was found that the variables: (1) pre-morbid psychological functioning of the child. (2) Parental and family functioning in daily life. (3) Exposure of the child to traumatic events. (4) Support factors for the family. Are variables that predict the development of PMTS in children after surgery, but only for children at risk and not for children who are not at risk. The significance of the findings in relation to the need to identify at-risk populations in the hospitals and the policies derived from them were discussed, and several directions were raised for further research.

Keywords: children at risk, pediatric medical traumatic stress (PMTS), PTSD, medical procedures

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Authors: Hromada Martin

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Risk analysis is considered as a fundamental aspect relevant for ensuring the level of critical infrastructure protection, where the critical infrastructure is seen as system, asset or its part which is important for maintaining the vital societal functions. Article actually discusses and analyzes the potential application of selected tools of information support for the implementation and within the framework of risk analysis and critical infrastructure protection. Use of the information in relation to their risk analysis can be viewed as a form of simplifying the analytical process. It is clear that these instruments (information support) for these purposes are countless, so they were selected representatives who have already been applied in the selected area of critical infrastructure, or they can be used. All presented fact were the basis for critical infrastructure resilience evaluation methodology development.

Keywords: critical infrastructure, protection, resilience, risk analysis

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Authors: Gabriela-Andreea Despescu, Mădălina-Elena Mavrodin, Gheorghe Lăzăroiu, Florin Adrian Grădinaru

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The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the enhancement of a hydroelectric plant protection by coordinating protection measures and existing security and introducing new measures under a risk management process. Also, the plan identifies key critical elements of a hydroelectric plant, from its level vulnerabilities and threats it is subjected to in order to achieve the necessary protection measures to reduce the level of risk.

Keywords: critical infrastructure, risk analysis, critical infrastructure protection, vulnerability, risk management, turbine, impact analysis

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Authors: Gonzalez Carlos, Martinez Fransisco

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The creation of a seismic prediction model that considers all the regional variations and perfectly adjusts its results to the response spectra is very complicated. To achieve statistically acceptable results, it is necessary to process a sufficiently robust data set, and even if high efficiencies are achieved, this model will only work properly in this region. However, when using it in other regions, differences are found due to different parameters that have not been calibrated to other regions, such as the site effect. The fact that impedance contrasts, as well as other factors belonging to the site, have a great influence on the local response is well known, which is why this work, using the residual method, is intended to establish a regional calibration of the corresponding parameters site effect for the Spain region in the global GMPM BSSA 14.

Keywords: GMPM, seismic prediction equations, residual method, response spectra, impedance contrast

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Authors: Markus Stralla

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This study employs a GMM framework to examine the impact of potential regulatory intervention regarding the occupations of supervisory board members in cooperative banking. To achieve insights, the study proceeds in two different ways. First, it investigates the changes in board structure prior and following to the German Act to Strengthen Financial Market and Insurance Supervision (FinVAG). Second, the study estimates the influence of Ph.D.Share, professional concentration and supervisory power on bank-risk changes in consideration of the implementation of FinVAG. Therefore, the study is based on a sample of 246 German cooperative banks from 2006-2011 while applying four different measures of bank risk, namely credit-, equity-, liquidity-risk, and Z-Score, with the former three also being addressed in FinVAG. Results indicate that the implementation of FinVAG results in (most likely unintentional) structural changes, especially at the expense of farmers, and affects all risk measures and relations between risk measures and supervisory board characteristics in a risk-reducing and therefore intended way. To disentangle the complex relationship between board characteristics and risk measures, the study utilizes two-step system GMM estimator to account for unobserved heterogeneity and simultaneity in order to reduce endogeneity problems. The findings may be especially relevant for stakeholders, regulators, supervisors and managers.

Keywords: bank governance, bank risk-taking, board of directors, regulation

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Authors: M. Saleem, M. Shahnawaz, A. W. Gandahi, S. M. Bhatti

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The micronutrients boron and zinc deficiencies are extensive in the areas of rice-wheat cropping system. Optimum levels of these nutrients in soil are necessary for healthy crop growth. Since rice and wheat are major staple food of worlds’ populace, the higher yields and nutrition status of these crops has direct effect on the health of human being and economy of the country. A field study was conducted to observe the direct and residual effect of two selected micronutrients boron (B) and zinc (Zn)) on rice and wheat crop growth and its grain nutrient status. Each plot received either B or Zn at the rates of 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 kg B ha⁻¹, and 5, 10, 15 and 20 kg Zn ha⁻¹, combined B and Zn application at 1 kg B and 5 kg Zn ha⁻¹, 2 kg B and 10 kg Zn ha⁻¹. Colemanite ore were used as source of B and zinc sulfate for Zn. The second season wheat crop was planted in the same plots after the interval period of 30 days and during this time gap soil was fallow. Boron and Zn application significantly enhanced the plant height, number of tillers, Grains panicle⁻¹ seed index fewer empty grains panicle⁻¹ and yield of rice crop at all defined levels as compared to control. The highest yield (10.00 tons/ha) was recorded at 2 Kg B, 10 Kg Zn ha⁻¹ rates. Boron and Zn concentration in grain and straw significantly increased. The application of B also improved the nutrition status of rice as B, protein and total carbohydrates content of grain augmented. The analysis of soil samples collected after harvest of rice crop showed that the B and Zn content in post-harvest soil samples was high in colemanite and zinc sulfate applied plots. The residual B and Zn were also effectual for the second season wheat crop, as the growth parameters plant height, number of tillers, earhead length, weight 1000 grains, B and Zn content of grain significantly improved. The highest wheat grain yield (4.23 tons/ha) was recorded at the residual rates of 2 kg B and 10 kg Zn ha⁻¹ than the other treatments. This study showed that one application of B and Zn can increase crop yields for at least two consecutive seasons and the mineral colemanite can confidently be used as source of B for rice crop because very small quantities of these nutrients are consumed by first season crop and remaining amount was present in soil which were used by second season wheat crop for healthy growth. Consequently, there is no need to apply these micronutrients to the following crop when it is applied on the previous one.

Keywords: residual boron, zinc, rice, wheat

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Authors: Atousa Khodadadyan, Gabe Mythen, Hirbod Assa, Beverley Bishop

Abstract:

Risk assessment and the knowledge provided through this process is a crucial part of any decision-making process in the management of risks and uncertainties. Failure in assessment of risks can cause inadequacy in the entire process of risk management, which in turn can lead to failure in achieving organisational objectives as well as having significant damaging consequences on populations affected by the potential risks being assessed. The choice of tools and techniques in risk assessment can influence the degree and scope of decision-making and subsequently the risk response strategy. There are various available qualitative and quantitative tools and techniques that are deployed within the broad process of risk assessment. The sheer diversity of tools and techniques available to practitioners makes it difficult for organisations to consistently employ the most appropriate methods. This tools and techniques adaptation is rendered more difficult in public risk regulation organisations due to the sensitive and complex nature of their activities. This is particularly the case in areas relating to the environment, food, and human health and safety, when organisational goals are tied up with societal, political and individuals’ goals at national and international levels. Hence, recognising, analysing and evaluating different decision support tools and techniques employed in assessing risks in public risk management organisations was considered. This research is part of a mixed method study which aimed to examine the perception of risk assessment and the extent to which organisations practise risk assessment’ tools and techniques. The study adopted a semi-structured questionnaire with qualitative and quantitative data analysis to include a range of public risk regulation organisations from the UK, Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results indicated the public risk management organisations mainly use diverse tools and techniques in the risk assessment process. The primary hazard analysis; brainstorming; hazard analysis and critical control points were described as the most practiced risk identification techniques. Within qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, the participants named the expert judgement, risk probability and impact assessment, sensitivity analysis and data gathering and representation as the most practised techniques.

Keywords: decision-making, public risk management organisations, risk assessment, tools and techniques

Procedia PDF Downloads 248

Authors: Ali E. Abbas

Abstract:

This paper highlights some of the normative issues that might result by setting independent thresholds in risk analyses and particularly with safety regions. A second objective is to explain how such regions can be specified appropriately in a meaningful way. We start with a review of the importance of setting deterministic trade-offs among target requirements. We then show how to determine safety regions for risk analysis appropriately using utility functions.

Keywords: decision analysis, thresholds, risk, reliability

Procedia PDF Downloads 279