Search results for: regression uncertainty

Authors: Morteza Aien, Masoud Rashidinejad, Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad

Abstract:

Power systems are innately uncertain systems. To face with such uncertain systems, robust uncertainty assessment tools are appealed. This paper inspects the uncertainty assessment formulation of the load flow (LF) problem considering different kinds of uncertainties, developed in its companion paper through some case studies. The proposed methodology is based on the evidence theory and joint propagation of possibilistic and probabilistic uncertainties. The load and wind power generation are considered as probabilistic uncertain variables and the electric vehicles (EVs) and gas turbine distributed generation (DG) units are considered as possibilistic uncertain variables. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the system output parameters obtained by the pure probabilistic method lies within the belief and plausibility functions obtained by the joint propagation approach. Furthermore, the imprecision in the DG parameters is explicitly reflected by the gap between the belief and plausibility functions. This gap, due to the epistemic uncertainty on the DG resources parameters grows as the penetration level increases.

Keywords: electric vehicles, joint possibilistic- probabilistic uncertainty modeling, uncertain load flow, wind turbine generator

Procedia PDF Downloads 399

Authors: S. Bouhouche, R. Drai, J. Bast

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with a method for uncertainty evaluation of steel sample content using X-Ray Fluorescence method. The considered method of analysis is a comparative technique based on the X-Ray Fluorescence; the calibration step assumes the adequate chemical composition of metallic analyzed sample. It is proposed in this work a new combined approach using the Kalman Filter and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for uncertainty estimation of steel content analysis. The Kalman filter algorithm is extended to the model identification of the chemical analysis process using the main factors affecting the analysis results; in this case, the estimated states are reduced to the model parameters. The MCMC is a stochastic method that computes the statistical properties of the considered states such as the probability distribution function (PDF) according to the initial state and the target distribution using Monte Carlo simulation algorithm. Conventional approach is based on the linear correlation, the uncertainty budget is established for steel Mn(wt%), Cr(wt%), Ni(wt%) and Mo(wt%) content respectively. A comparative study between the conventional procedure and the proposed method is given. This kind of approaches is applied for constructing an accurate computing procedure of uncertainty measurement.

Keywords: Kalman filter, Markov chain Monte Carlo, x-ray fluorescence calibration and testing, steel content measurement, uncertainty measurement

Procedia PDF Downloads 254

Authors: Fally Titikpina, Abderafi Charki, Antoine Caucheteux, David Bigaud

Abstract:

The building sector is one of the largest energy consumer with about 40% of the final energy consumption in the European Union. Ensuring building energy performance is of scientific, technological and sociological matter. To assess a building energy performance, the consumption being predicted or estimated during the design stage is compared with the measured consumption when the building is operational. When valuing this performance, many buildings show significant differences between the calculated and measured consumption. In order to assess the performance accurately and ensure the thermal efficiency of the building, it is necessary to evaluate the uncertainties involved not only in measurement but also those induced by the propagation of dynamic and static input data in the model being used. The evaluation of measurement uncertainty is based on both the knowledge about the measurement process and the input quantities which influence the result of measurement. Measurement uncertainty can be evaluated within the framework of conventional statistics presented in the \textit{Guide to the Expression of Measurement Uncertainty (GUM)} as well as by Bayesian Statistical Theory (BST). Another choice is the use of numerical methods like Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). In this paper, we proposed to evaluate the uncertainty associated to the use of a simplified model for the estimation of the energy consumption of a given building. A detailed review and discussion of these three approaches (GUM, MCS and BST) is given. Therefore, an office building has been monitored and multiple sensors have been mounted on candidate locations to get required data. The monitored zone is composed of six offices and has an overall surface of 102 $m^2$. Temperature data, electrical and heating consumption, windows opening and occupancy rate are the features for our research work.

Keywords: building energy performance, uncertainty evaluation, GUM, bayesian approach, monte carlo method

Procedia PDF Downloads 426

Authors: Nina Miklavčič, Urška Kugovnik, Natalia Galkina, Primož Ribarič, Rudi Vončina

Abstract:

Today, the need for weather predictions is deeply rooted in the everyday life of people as well as it is in industry. The forecasts influence final decision-making processes in multiple areas, from agriculture and prevention of natural disasters to air traffic regulations and solutions on a national level for health, security, and economic problems. Namely, in Slovenia, alongside other existing forms of application, weather forecasts are adopted for the prognosis of electrical current transmission through powerlines. Meteorological parameters are one of the key factors which need to be considered in estimations of the reliable supply of electrical energy to consumers. And like for any other measured value, the knowledge about measurement uncertainty is also critical for the secure and reliable supply of energy. The estimation of measurement uncertainty grants us a more accurate interpretation of data, a better quality of the end results, and even a possibility of improvement of weather forecast models. In the article, we focused on the estimation of measurement uncertainty of the diagnostic microscale meteorological model CALMET. For the purposes of our research, we used a network of meteorological stations spread in the area of our interest, which enables a side-by-side comparison of measured meteorological values with the values calculated with the help of CALMET and the measurement uncertainty estimation as a final result.

Keywords: uncertancy, meteorological model, meteorological measurment, CALMET

Procedia PDF Downloads 44

Authors: Sinem O. Aktan, Musa Y. Akkurt

Abstract:

Experimental pressure calibration methods can be classified into three areas: (1) measurements in liquid or gas systems, (2) measurements in static-solid media systems, and (3) measurements in dynamic shock systems. Fluid (liquid and gas) systems high accuracies can be obtainable and commonly used for the calibration method of a pressure sensor. Pressure calibrations can be performed for metrological traceability in two ways, which are on-site (field) and in the laboratory. Laboratory and on-site calibration procedures and the requirements of the DKD-R-6-1 and Euramet cg-17 guidelines will also be addressed. In this study, calibration methods of direct and indirect reading pressure sensor and measurement uncertainty contributions will be explained.

Keywords: pressure metrology, pressure calibration, dead-weight tester, pressure uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Jan Henrik Wosnitza

Abstract:

The logistic regression has developed into a standard approach for estimating conditional probabilities in a wide range of applications including credit risk prediction. The article at hand contributes to the current literature on logistic regression fourfold: First, it is demonstrated that the binary logistic regression automatically meets its model assumptions under very general conditions. This result explains, at least in part, the logistic regression's popularity. Second, the requirement of homoscedasticity in the context of binary logistic regression is theoretically substantiated. The variances among the groups of defaulted and non-defaulted obligors have to be the same across the level of the aggregated default indicators in order to achieve linear logits. Third, this article sheds some light on the question why nonlinear logits might be superior to linear logits in case of a small amount of data. Fourth, an innovative methodology for estimating correlations between obligor-specific log-odds is proposed. In order to crystallize the key ideas, this paper focuses on the example of credit risk prediction. However, the results presented in this paper can easily be transferred to any other field of application.

Keywords: correlation, credit risk estimation, default correlation, homoscedasticity, logistic regression, nonlinear logistic regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 389

Authors: Manish Pandey, Gurinderjit Kaur, Meenu Talwar, Sachin Chauhan, Jagbir Gill

Abstract:

Health-care management systems are a unit of nice connection as a result of the supply a straightforward and fast management of all aspects relating to a patient, not essentially medical. What is more, there are unit additional and additional cases of pathologies during which diagnosing and treatment may be solely allotted by victimization medical imaging techniques. With associate ever-increasing prevalence, medical pictures area unit directly acquired in or regenerate into digital type, for his or her storage additionally as sequent retrieval and process. Data Mining is the process of extracting information from large data sets through using algorithms and Techniques drawn from the field of Statistics, Machine Learning and Data Base Management Systems. Forecasting may be a prediction of what's going to occur within the future, associated it's an unsure method. Owing to the uncertainty, the accuracy of a forecast is as vital because the outcome foretold by foretelling the freelance variables. A forecast management should be wont to establish if the accuracy of the forecast is within satisfactory limits. Fuzzy regression strategies have normally been wont to develop shopper preferences models that correlate the engineering characteristics with shopper preferences relating to a replacement product; the patron preference models offer a platform, wherever by product developers will decide the engineering characteristics so as to satisfy shopper preferences before developing the merchandise. Recent analysis shows that these fuzzy regression strategies area units normally will not to model client preferences. We tend to propose a Testing the strength of Exponential Regression Model over regression toward the mean Model.

Keywords: health-care management systems, fuzzy regression, data mining, forecasting, fuzzy membership function

Procedia PDF Downloads 249

Authors: Goodness C. Aye

Abstract:

This paper examines the effect of the volatility of oil prices on food price in South Africa using monthly data covering the period 2002:01 to 2014:09. Food price is measured by the South African consumer price index for food while oil price is proxied by the Brent crude oil. The study employs the GARCH-in-mean VAR model, which allows the investigation of the effect of a negative and positive shock in oil price volatility on food price. The model also allows the oil price uncertainty to be measured as the conditional standard deviation of a one-step-ahead forecast error of the change in oil price. The results show that oil price uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on food price in South Africa. The responses of food price to a positive and negative oil price shocks is asymmetric.

Keywords: oil price volatility, food price, bivariate, GARCH-in-mean VAR, asymmetric

Procedia PDF Downloads 448

Authors: J. Kloypayan, W. Pimpakan

Abstract:

The pipe taper thread measurement and uncertainty normally used the four-wire probe according to the JIS B 0262. Besides, according to the EA-10/10 standard, the pipe thread could be measured using the three-wire probe. This research proposed to use the three-wire probe measuring the pitch diameter of the pipe taper thread. The measuring accessory component was designed and made, then, assembled to one side of the ULM 828 CiM machine. Therefore, this machine could be used to measure and calibrate both the pipe thread and the pipe taper thread. The equations and the expanded uncertainty for pitch diameter measurement were formulated. After the experiment, the results showed that the pipe taper thread had the pitch diameter equal to 19.165 mm and the expanded uncertainty equal to 1.88µm. Then, the experiment results were compared to the results from the National Institute of Metrology Thailand. The equivalence ratio from the comparison showed that both results were related. Thus, the proposed method of using the three-wire probe measured the pitch diameter of the pipe taper thread was acceptable.

Keywords: pipe taper thread, three-wire probe, measure and calibration, the universal length measuring machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 371

Authors: S. Dorbani, M. Badaoui, D. Benouar

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of the building fundamental period of reinforced concrete buildings of (6, 9, and 12-storey), with different floor plans: Symmetric, mono-symmetric, and unsymmetric. These structures are erected at different epicentral distances. Using the Boumerdes, Algeria (2003) earthquake data, we focused primarily on the establishment of the deterministic formulation linking the base shear force to two parameters: The first one is the fundamental period that represents the numerical fingerprint of the structure, and the second one is the epicentral distance used to represent the impact of the earthquake on this force. In a second step, with a view to highlight the effect of uncertainty in these parameters on the analyzed response, these parameters are modeled as random variables with a log-normal distribution. The variability of the coefficients of variation of the chosen uncertain parameters, on the statistics on the seismic base shear force, showed that the effect of uncertainty on fundamental period on this force statistics is low compared to the epicentral distance uncertainty influence.

Keywords: base shear force, fundamental period, epicentral distance, uncertainty, lognormal variables, statistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 292

Authors: Niranjani Ruba Pandian

Abstract:

In today’s multicultural global business community, most of the businesses and industries are linked with various countries in which different nationalities have different roles and responsibilities throughout the project. The purpose of this research is to examine the cross-cultural challenges between Indian and French and the ways to minimize these challenges to manage effectively the cross-cultural aspect of human resources for the success of global business in an automotive industry. The conducted study utilized quantitative methodology to analyze the data on Indian and French employees' perceptions of 6 cultural dimensions such as power versus distance, individualism versus collectivism, masculinity versus femininity, uncertainty versus avoidance, pragmatic versus normative and indulgence versus restraint. Employees of 4 multinational companies filled in the questionnaire based on the 5-point Likert scale to present quantitative results. The data was analysed with the correlation and multiple regression statistical analyses. It was found that Indian and French have major gap in uncertainty versus avoidance followed by individualism versus collectivism. However, this article highlights the way to minimize these gaps by adopting certain sequenced methodologies.

Keywords: automotive industry, cross cultural challenges, globalization, global business

Procedia PDF Downloads 437

Authors: Parisa Bagheri Tookanlou

Abstract:

In this paper, we analyze a product line design problem faced by a manufacturing firm where the product line consists of a customized product in addition to a standard product and is offered in a market in which customers are heterogeneous on aesthetic attributes of the product. The customization level of a product is defined by the fraction of aesthetic attributes of the product that the manufacturer chooses to customize. In contrast to the existing literature on product line design that predominantly assumes deterministic demand, we consider the presence of demand uncertainty and frame the product line design problem in a single period (news vendor) setting. We examine the effect of demand uncertainty on product line decisions. Furthermore, we also examine how product line decisions are influenced by channel structure. While we use the centralized channel as a benchmark, we consider the decentralized dual channel where the customized product is sold through an online channel owned by the manufacturer and the standard product is sold through a retailer. We introduce a supply contract between the manufacturer and the retailer for improving channel efficiency and coordinate the distribution channel.

Keywords: product line design, demand uncertainty, customization level, distribution channel

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Leah Wright, Trevor Townsend

Abstract:

Mode choice models are crucial instruments in the analysis of travel behaviour. These models show the relationship between an individual’s choice of transportation mode for a given O-D pair and the individual’s socioeconomic characteristics such as household size and income level, age and/or gender, and the features of the transportation system. The most popular functional forms of these models are based on Utility-Based Choice Theory, which addresses the uncertainty in the decision-making process with the use of an error term. However, with the development of artificial intelligence, many researchers have started to take a different approach to travel demand modelling. In recent times, researchers have looked at using neural networks, fuzzy logic and rough set theory to develop improved mode choice formulas. The concept of cloud theory has recently been introduced to model decision-making under uncertainty. Unlike the previously mentioned theories, cloud theory recognises a relationship between randomness and fuzziness, two of the most common types of uncertainty. This research aims to investigate the use of cloud theory in mode choice models. This paper highlights the conceptual framework of the mode choice model using cloud theory. Merging decision-making under uncertainty and mode choice models is state of the art. The cloud theory model is expected to address the issues and concerns with the nested logit and improve the design of mode choice models and their use in travel demand.

Keywords: Cloud theory, decision-making, mode choice models, travel behaviour, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: Jude Opara, Esemokumo Perewarebo Akpos

Abstract:

This paper is on non-parametric linear regression over its parametric counterparts with large sample size. Data set on anthropometric measurement of primary school pupils was taken for the analysis. The study used 50 randomly selected pupils for the study. The set of data was subjected to normality test, and it was discovered that the residuals are not normally distributed (i.e. they do not follow a Gaussian distribution) for the commonly used least squares regression method for fitting an equation into a set of (x,y)-data points using the Anderson-Darling technique. The algorithms for the nonparametric Theil’s regression are stated in this paper as well as its parametric OLS counterpart. The use of a programming language software known as “R Development” was used in this paper. From the analysis, the result showed that there exists a significant relationship between the response and the explanatory variable for both the parametric and non-parametric regression. To know the efficiency of one method over the other, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) are used, and it is discovered that the nonparametric regression performs better than its parametric regression counterparts due to their lower values in both the AIC and BIC. The study however recommends that future researchers should study a similar work by examining the presence of outliers in the data set, and probably expunge it if detected and re-analyze to compare results.

Keywords: Theil’s regression, Bayesian information criterion, Akaike information criterion, OLS

Procedia PDF Downloads 274

Authors: Alexander de Tomás, Miquel Sierra, Stefan Pfenninger, Francesco Lombardi, Ines Campos, Cristina Madrid

Abstract:

Environmental parameters are key in the definition of sustainable energy systems yet excluded from most energy system optimization models. Still, decision-making may be misleading without considering them. Environmental analyses of the energy transition are a key part of industrial ecology but often are performed without any input from the users of the information. This work assesses the systemic impacts of energy transition pathways in Portugal. Using the Calliope energy modeling framework, 250+ optimized energy system pathways are generated. A Delphi study helps to identify the relevant criteria for the stakeholders as regards the environmental assessment, which is performed with ENBIOS, a python package that integrates life cycle assessment (LCA) with a metabolic analysis based on complex relations. Furthermore, this study focuses on how the uncertainty propagates through the model’s consortium. With the aim of doing so, a soft link between the Calliope/ENBIOS cascade and Brightway’s data capabilities is built to perform Monte Carlo simulations. These findings highlight the relevance of including uncertainty analysis as a range of values rather than informing energy transition results with a single value.

Keywords: energy transition, energy modeling, uncertainty, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 45

Authors: Ajai Singh

Abstract:

Simulation of hydrological processes at the watershed outlet through modelling approach is essential for proper planning and implementation of appropriate soil conservation measures in Damodar Barakar catchment, Hazaribagh, India where soil erosion is a dominant problem. This study quantifies the parametric uncertainty involved in simulation of stream flow using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a watershed scale model and Radial Basis Neural Network (RBNN), an artificial neural network model. Both the models were calibrated and validated based on measured stream flow and quantification of the uncertainty in SWAT model output was assessed using ‘‘Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm’’ (SUFI-2). Though both the model predicted satisfactorily, but RBNN model performed better than SWAT with R2 and NSE values of 0.92 and 0.92 during training, and 0.71 and 0.70 during validation period, respectively. Comparison of the results of the two models also indicates a wider prediction interval for the results of the SWAT model. The values of P-factor related to each model shows that the percentage of observed stream flow values bracketed by the 95PPU in the RBNN model as 91% is higher than the P-factor in SWAT as 87%. In other words the RBNN model estimates the stream flow values more accurately and with less uncertainty. It could be stated that RBNN model based on simple input could be used for estimation of monthly stream flow, missing data, and testing the accuracy and performance of other models.

Keywords: SWAT, RBNN, SUFI 2, bootstrap technique, stream flow, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 324

Authors: Denys Osipenko, Jonathan Crook

Abstract:

Because of the variety of the card holders’ behaviour types and income sources each consumer account can be transferred to a variety of states. Each consumer account can be inactive, transactor, revolver, delinquent, defaulted and requires an individual model for the income prediction. The estimation of transition probabilities between statuses at the account level helps to avoid the memorylessness of the Markov Chains approach. This paper investigates the transition probabilities estimation approaches to credit cards income prediction at the account level. The key question of empirical research is which approach gives more accurate results: multinomial logistic regression or multistage conditional logistic regression with binary target. Both models have shown moderate predictive power. Prediction accuracy for conditional logistic regression depends on the order of stages for the conditional binary logistic regression. On the other hand, multinomial logistic regression is easier for usage and gives integrate estimations for all states without priorities. Thus further investigations can be concentrated on alternative modeling approaches such as discrete choice models.

Keywords: multinomial regression, conditional logistic regression, credit account state, transition probability

Procedia PDF Downloads 456

Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Irena Palić

Abstract:

This paper examines economic and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) development influence on recently increasing Internet purchases by individuals for European Union member states. After a growing trend for Internet purchases in EU27 was noticed, all possible regression analysis was applied using nine independent variables in 2011. Finally, two linear regression models were studied in detail. Conducted simple linear regression analysis confirmed the research hypothesis that the Internet purchases in analysed EU countries is positively correlated with statistically significant variable Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPpc). Also, analysed multiple linear regression model with four regressors, showing ICT development level, indicates that ICT development is crucial for explaining the Internet purchases by individuals, confirming the research hypothesis.

Keywords: European union, Internet purchases, multiple linear regression model, outlier

Procedia PDF Downloads 274

Authors: Masrur Alam Khan

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to examine the dyadic interaction techniques that social media users utilize to reduce uncertainty in their day to day business engagements in the absence of their physical interaction. The study empirically tested assumptions of uncertainty reduction theory while addressing self-disclosure, seeking questions to develop consensus, and subsequently to achieve intimacy in very conducive environment. Moreover, this study examined the effect of dyadic interaction through social media among business community while identifying the strength of their reciprocity in relationships and compares it with those having no dyadic relations due to absence of social media. Using socio-metric survey, the study revealed a better understanding of their partners for upholding their professional relations more credible. A sample of unacquainted, both male and female, was randomly asked questions regarding their nature of dyadic interaction within their office while using social media (face-to-face, visual CMC (webcam) or text-only). Primary results explored that the social media users develop their better know-how about their professional obligations to reduce ambiguity and align with one to one interact.

Keywords: dyadic-interaction, social media, uncertainty reduction, socio-metric survey, self-disclosure, intimacy, reciprocity in relationship

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Kamel Malik Bensafta, Gervasio Semedo

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between oil prices and socks markets. The empirical analysis in this paper is conducted within the context of Multivariate GARCH models, using a transform version of the so-called BEKK parameterization. We show that mean and uncertainty of US market are transmitted to oil market and European market. We also identify an important transmission from WTI prices to Brent Prices.

Keywords: oil volatility, stock markets, MGARCH, transmission, structural break

Procedia PDF Downloads 490

Authors: Badreddine Chemali, Boualem Tiliouine

Abstract:

This article presents the main results of a numerical investigation on the uncertainty of dynamic response of structures with statistically correlated random damping Gamma distributed. A computational method based on a Linear Statistical Model (LSM) is implemented to predict second order statistics for the response of a typical industrial building structure. The significance of random damping with correlated parameters and its implications on the sensitivity of structural peak response in the neighborhood of a resonant frequency are discussed in light of considerable ranges of damping uncertainties and correlation coefficients. The results are compared to those generated using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The numerical results obtained show the importance of damping uncertainty and statistical correlation of damping coefficients when obtaining accurate probabilistic estimates of dynamic response of structures. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the LSM model to efficiently predict uncertainty propagation for structural dynamic problems with correlated damping parameters is demonstrated.

Keywords: correlated random damping, linear statistical model, Monte Carlo simulation, uncertainty of dynamic response

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Fabiana Lucena Oliveira, Aristides da Rocha Oliveira Junior

Abstract:

This article discusses the dependence on air transport mode of agile supply chains. The agile supply chains are the result of the analysis of the uncertainty supply chain model, which ranks the supply chain, according to the respective product. Thus, understanding the Uncertainty Model and life cycle of products considered standard and innovative is critical to understanding these. The innovative character in the intersection of supply chains arising from the uncertainty model with its most appropriate transport mode. Consider here the variables availability, security and freight as determinants for choosing these modes. Therefore, the research problem is: How agile supply chains maintains logistics competitiveness, as these are dependent on air transport mode? A case study in Manaus Industrial Pole (MIP), an agglomeration model that includes six hundred industries from different backgrounds and billings, located in the Brazilian Amazon. The sample of companies surveyed include those companies whose products are classified in agile supply chains , as innovative and therefore live with the variable uncertainty in the demand for inputs or the supply of finished products. The results confirm the hypothesis that the dependency level of air transport mode is greater than fifty percent. It follows then, that maintain agile supply chain away from suppliers base is expensive (1) , and continuity analysis needs to be remade on each twenty four months (2) , consider that additional freight, handling and storage as members of the logistics costs (3) , and the comparison with the upcoming agile supply chains the world need to consider the location effect (4).

Keywords: uncertainty model, air transport mode, competitiveness, logistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 477

Authors: Galal Elkobrosy, Amr M. Abdelrazek, Bassuny M. Elsouhily, Mohamed E. Khidr

Abstract:

Crank shaft length, connecting rod length, crank angle, engine rpm, cylinder bore, mass of piston and compression ratio are the inputs that can control the performance of the slider crank mechanism and then its efficiency. Several combinations of these seven inputs are used and compared. The throughput engine torque predicted by the simulation is analyzed through two different regression models, with and without interaction terms, developed according to multi-linear regression using LU decomposition to solve system of algebraic equations. These models are validated. A regression model in seven inputs including their interaction terms lowered the polynomial degree from 3^rd degree to 1^st degree and suggested valid predictions and stable explanations.

Keywords: design of experiments, regression analysis, SI engine, statistical modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Ka C. Lam, Oluwafunmibi S. Idowu

Abstract:

Uncertainty in cost is a major factor affecting performance of construction projects. To our knowledge, several conceptual cost models have been developed with varying degrees of accuracy. Incorporating conceptual quantities into conceptual cost models could improve the accuracy of early predesign cost estimates. Hence, the development of quantity models for estimating conceptual quantities of framed reinforced concrete structures using supervised machine learning is the aim of the current research. Using measured quantities of structural elements and design variables such as live loads and soil bearing pressures, response and predictor variables were defined and used for constructing conceptual quantities models. Twenty-four models were developed for comparison using a combination of non-parametric support vector regression, linear regression, and bootstrap resampling techniques. R programming language was used for data analysis and model implementation. Gross soil bearing pressure and gross floor loading were discovered to have a major influence on the quantities of concrete and reinforcement used for foundations. Building footprint and gross floor loading had a similar influence on beams and slabs. Future research could explore the modelling of other conceptual quantities for walls, finishes, and services using machine learning techniques. Estimation of conceptual quantities would assist construction planners in early resource planning and enable detailed performance evaluation of early cost predictions.

Keywords: bootstrapping, conceptual quantities, modelling, reinforced concrete, support vector regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 183

Authors: Ephraim Ugwu, Christopher Ehinomen

Abstract:

Despite efforts by the Nigerian government to harmonize the macroeconomic policy implementations by establishing various committees to resolve disputes between the fiscal and monetary authorities, it is still evident that the federal government had continued its expansionary policy by increasing spending, thus creating huge budget deficit. This study evaluates the effect of macroeconomic policy coordination on economic growth uncertainty in Nigeria from 1980 to 2020. Employing the Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing procedures, the empirical results shows that the error correction term, ECM(-1), indicates a negative sign and is significant statistically with the t-statistic value of (-5.612882 ). Therefore, the gap between long run equilibrium value and the actual value of the dependent variable is corrected with speed of adjustment equal to 77% yearly. The long run coefficient results showed that the estimated coefficients of the intercept term indicates that other things remains the same (ceteris paribus), the economics growth uncertainty will continue reduce by 7.32%. The coefficient of the fiscal policy variable, PUBEXP, indicates a positive sign and significant statistically. This implies that as the government expenditure increases by 1%, economic growth uncertainty will increase by 1.67%. The coefficient of monetary policy variable MS also indicates a positive sign and insignificant statistically. The coefficients of merchandise trade variable, TRADE and exchange rate EXR show negative signs and significant statistically. This indicate that as the country’s merchandise trade and the rate of exchange increases by 1%, the economic growth uncertainty reduces by 0.38% and 0.06%, respectively. This study, therefore, advocate for proper coordination of monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies in order to actualize the goal of achieving a stable economic growth.

Keywords: macroeconomic, policy coordination, growth uncertainty, ARDL, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 54

Authors: Verena M. Moock, Darien E. Arce Chávez, Mariana M. Espejel González, Leopoldo Ruíz-Huerta, Crescencio García-Segundo

Abstract:

Uncertainty analysis in industrial computed tomography is commonly related to metrological trace tools, which offer precision measurements of external part features. Unfortunately, there is no such reference tool for internal measurements to profit from the unique imaging potential of X-rays. Uncertainty approximations for computed tomography are still based on general aspects of the industrial machine and do not adapt to acquisition parameters or part characteristics. The present study investigates the impact of the acquisition time on the dimensional uncertainty measuring a stainless steel cylinder with a circular tomography scan. The authors develop the figure difference method for X-ray radiography to evaluate the volumetric differences introduced within the projected absorption maps of the metal workpiece. The dimensional uncertainty is dominantly influenced by photon energy dissipated as heat causing the thermal expansion of the metal, as monitored by an infrared camera within the industrial tomograph. With the proposed methodology, we are able to show evolving temperature differences throughout the tomography acquisition. This is an early study showing that the number of projections in computer tomography induces dimensional error due to energy absorption. The error magnitude would depend on the thermal properties of the sample and the acquisition parameters by placing apparent non-uniform unwanted volumetric expansion. We introduce infrared imaging for the experimental display of metrological uncertainty in a particular metal part of symmetric geometry. We assess that the current results are of fundamental value to reach the balance between the number of projections and uncertainty tolerance when performing analysis with X-ray dimensional exploration in precision measurements with industrial tomography.

Keywords: computed tomography, digital metrology, infrared imaging, thermal expansion

Procedia PDF Downloads 90

Authors: Helen Pushkarskaya, David Tolin, Lital Ruderman, Ariel Kirshenbaum, J. MacLaren Kelly, Christopher Pittenger, Ifat Levy

Abstract:

Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD) produces profound morbidity. Difficulties with decision making and intolerance of uncertainty are prominent clinical features of OCD. The nature and etiology of these deficits are poorly understood. We used a well-validated choice task, grounded in behavioral economic theory, to investigate differences in valuation and value-based choice during decision making under uncertainty in 20 unmedicated participants with OCD and 20 matched healthy controls. Participants’ choices were used to assess individual decision-making characteristics. Compared to controls, individuals with OCD were less consistent in their choices and less able to identify options that were unambiguously preferable. These differences correlated with symptom severity. OCD participants did not differ from controls in how they valued uncertain options when outcome probabilities were known (risk) but were more likely than controls to avoid uncertain options when these probabilities were imprecisely specified (ambiguity). These results suggest that the underlying neural mechanisms of valuation and value-based choices during decision-making are abnormal in OCD. Individuals with OCD show elevated intolerance of uncertainty, but only when outcome probabilities are themselves uncertain. Future research focused on the neural valuation network, which is implicated in value-based computations, may provide new neurocognitive insights into the pathophysiology of OCD. Deficits in decision-making processes may represent a target for therapeutic intervention.

Keywords: obsessive compulsive disorder, decision-making, uncertainty intolerance, risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, valuation

Procedia PDF Downloads 585

Authors: Xavier Everaert

Abstract:

Ever since the publication of “The Problem of Social” cost, Coasean insights on externalities, transaction costs, and the reciprocal nature of harms, have been widely debated. What has been largely neglected however, is the role of technological innovation in the mitigation of negative externalities or transaction costs. Incorporating future uncertainty about negligence standards or expected restitution costs and the profit opportunities these uncertainties reveal to entrepreneurs, allow us to frame problems regarding social costs within the reality of rapid technological evolution.

Keywords: environmental law and economics, entrepreneurship, commons, pollution, wildlife

Procedia PDF Downloads 393

Authors: Kornelius Ronald Demu, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih

Abstract:

Human Development Index (HDI) is a standard measurement for a country's human development. Several factors may have influenced it, such as life expectancy, gross domestic product (GDP) based on the province's annual expenditure, the number of poor people, and the percentage of an illiterate people. The scatter plot between HDI and the influenced factors show that the plot does not follow a specific pattern or form. Therefore, the HDI's data in Indonesia can be applied with a nonparametric regression model. The estimation of the regression curve in the nonparametric regression model is flexible because it follows the shape of the data pattern. One of the nonparametric regression's method is a truncated spline. Truncated spline regression is one of the nonparametric approach, which is a modification of the segmented polynomial functions. The estimator of a truncated spline regression model was affected by the selection of the optimal knots point. Knot points is a focus point of spline truncated functions. The optimal knots point was determined by the minimum value of generalized cross validation (GCV). In this article were applied the data of Human Development Index with a truncated spline nonparametric regression model. The results of this research were obtained the best-truncated spline regression model to the HDI's data in Indonesia with the combination of optimal knots point 5-5-5-4. Life expectancy and the percentage of an illiterate people were the significant factors depend to the HDI in Indonesia. The coefficient of determination is 94.54%. This means the regression model is good enough to applied on the data of HDI in Indonesia.

Keywords: generalized cross validation (GCV), Human Development Index (HDI), knots point, nonparametric regression, truncated spline

Procedia PDF Downloads 302

Authors: James Purnama, Riri Fitri Sari

Abstract:

We investigate the machine learning algorithm selection problem in the term of a depth image based eye gaze estimation, with respect to its essential difficulty in reducing the number of required training samples and duration time of training. Statistics based prediction accuracy are increasingly used to assess and evaluate prediction or estimation in gaze estimation. This article evaluates Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and R-Squared statistical analysis to assess machine learning methods on depth camera data for gaze estimation. There are 4 machines learning methods have been evaluated: Random Forest Regression, Regression Tree, Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Linear Regression. The experiment results show that the Random Forest Regression has the lowest RMSE and the highest R-Squared, which means that it is the best among other methods.

Keywords: gaze estimation, gaze tracking, eye tracking, kinect, regression model, orange python

Procedia PDF Downloads 505