Search results for: real exchange rate

Authors: Darrol Stanley, Levan Efremidze, Jannie Rossouw

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We investigate the predictability of the USD/ZAR (South African Rand) exchange rate with sample entropy analytics for the period of 2004-2015. We calculate sample entropy based on the daily data of the exchange rate and conduct empirical implementation of several market timing rules based on these entropy signals. The dynamic investment portfolio based on entropy signals produces better risk adjusted performance than a buy and hold strategy. The returns are estimated on the portfolio values in U.S. dollars. These results are preliminary and do not yet account for reasonable transactions costs, although these are very small in currency markets.

Keywords: currency trading, entropy, market timing, risk factor model

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Authors: Said Yousif Khairi

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Being a developing economy, imports of capital, raw materials and manufactories goods are vital for sustainable economic growth. In 2006, Libya imported LD 8 billion (US$ 6.25 billion) which composed of mainly machinery and transport equipment (49.3%), raw material (18%), and food products and live animals (13%). This represented about 10% of GDP. Thus, it is pertinent to investigate factors affecting the amount of Libyan imports. An econometric model representing the aggregate import demand for Libya was developed and estimated using the bounds test procedure, which based on an unrestricted error correction model (UECM). The data employed for the estimation was from 1970–2010. The results of the bounds test revealed that the volume of imports and its determinants namely real income, consumer price index and exchange rate are co-integrated. The findings indicate that the demand for imports is inelastic with respect to income, index price level and The exchange rate variable in the short run is statistically significant. In the long run, the income elasticity is elastic while the price elasticity and the exchange rate remains inelastic. This indicates that imports are important elements for Libyan economic growth in the long run.

Keywords: import demand, UECM, bounds test, Libya

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Authors: C. F. Popoola, P. Osho, S. B. Babarinde

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This study examined economic indicators as correlates of inward FDI. An exploratory research design was used to obtained annual published data on inflation rate, market size, exchange rate, political instability, human development, and infrastructure from Central Bank of Nigeria, National Bureau of Statistics, Nigerian Capital Market, Nigeria Institute of Social and Economic Research, and UNCTAD. Data generated were analyzed using Pearson correlation, analysis of variance and regression. The findings of the study revealed that market size (r = 0.852, p < 0.001), infrastructure (r = 0.264, p < 0.001), human development (r = 0.154, p < 0.01) and exchange rate ( r= 0.178, p < 0.05) correlate positively with inward FDI, while inflation rate (r = -0.88, p < 0.001), and political instability (r= -0.102, p < 0.05) correlate negatively with inward FDI. Findings also revealed that the economic indicators significantly predicted inward FDI (R2 = 0.913; F(1,19) = 29.40; p < 0.05) for Nigeria. It was concluded that exchange rate, market size, human development, and infrastructure positively related to inward FDI while the high level of inflation and political instability negatively related to inward FDI. Therefore, it was suggested that policy makers and government agencies should readdress steps and design policies that would encourage more FDI into the country.

Keywords: exchange rate, foreign direct investment, human development, inflation rate, infrastructure, market size, political instability

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Authors: Rakiya Abba

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This paper investigates the effect of the money supply, exchange and interest rate on economic growth in Nigeria through the application of Augmented Dickey-Fuller technique in testing the unit root property of the series and Granger causality test of causation between GDP, money supply, the exchange, and interest rate. The results of unit root suggest that all the variables in the model are stationary at 1, 5 and 10 percent level of significance, and the results of Causality suggest that money supply and exchange granger cause IR, the result further reveals two – way causation existed between M2 and EXR while IR granger cause GDP the null hypothesis is rejected and GDP does not granger cause IR as indicated by their probability values of 0.4805 and confirmed by F-statistics values of 0.75483. The results revealed that M2 and EXR do not granger causes GDP, the null hypothesis is accepted at 75percent 18percent respectively as indicated by their probability values of 0.7472 and 0.1830 respectively; also, GDP does not granger cause M2 and EXR. The Johansen cointegration result indicates that despite GDP does not granger cause M2, IR, and EXR, but there existed 1 cointegrating equation, implying the existence of long-run relationship between GDP, M2 IR, and EXR. A major policy implication of this result is that economic growth is function of and money supply and exchange rate, effective monetary policies should direct on manipulating instruments and importance should be placed on justification for adopting a particular policy be rationalized in order to increase growth in economy

Keywords: economic growth, money supply, interest rate, exchange rate, causality

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Authors: Jonathan Olusegun Famoroti, Mathew Ekundayo Rotimi, Mishelle Doorasamy

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This study offers an empirical investigation into some selected macroeconomic drivers of the monetary policy rate in member countries of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), considering both internal and external variables. We employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to carry out the investigation between monetary policy and some macroeconomic variables in both the long-run and short-run relationship. The results suggest that the drivers of the policy rate in this zone, in the long run, include, among others, global oil price, exchange rate, inflation rate, and gross domestic product, while in the short run, federal fund rate, trade openness, exchange rate, inflation rate, and gross domestic product are core determinants of the policy rate. Therefore, in order to ensure long-run stability in the policy rate among the members’ states, these drivers should be given closer consideration so that the trajectory for effective structure can be designed and fused into the economic structure and policy frameworks accordingly.

Keywords: monetary policy rate, macroeconomic variables, WAMZ, ARDL

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Authors: Prakash Thapa, Gye Choon Park, Sung Gi Kwon, Jin Lee

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The generation of electric power from a proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell is influenced by temperature, pressure, humidity, flow rate of reactant gaseous and partial flooding of membrane electrode assembly (MEA). Among these factors, temperature and cathode flooding are the most affecting parameters on the performance of fuel cell. This paper describes the detail design and effect of these parameters on PEM fuel cell. Performance of all parameters was monitored, analyzed and controlled by using 5KWatt PEM fuel cell. In the real-time data communication for remote monitoring and control of PEM fuel cell, a normalized least mean square algorithm in cognitive radio environment is used. By the use of this method, probability of energy signal detection will be maximum which solved the frequency shortage problem. So the monitoring system hanging out and slow speed problem will be solved. Also from the control unit, all parameters are controlled as per the system requirement. As a result, PEM fuel cell generates maximum electricity with better performance.

Keywords: proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell, pressure, temperature and humidity sensor (PTH), efficiency curve, cognitive radio network (CRN)

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Authors: Yi-Hsien Wang, Fu-Ju Yang, Hwa-Rong Shen, Rui-Lin Tseng

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The business is notably related to the market risk according to the increase of liberalization of financial markets. Hence, the company usually utilized high financial leverage of derivatives to hedge the risk. When the company choose different hedging instruments to face a variety of exchange rate risk, we employ the Multinomial Logistic-AHP to analyze the impact of various derivatives. Hence, the research summarized the literature on relevant factors affecting managers selected exchange rate hedging instruments, using Multinomial Logistic Model and and further integrate AHP. Using Experts’ Questionnaires can test multi-level selection and hedging effect of different hedging instruments in order to calculate the hedging instruments and the multi-level factors of weights to understand the gap between the empirical results and practical operation. Finally, the Multinomial Logistic-AHP Model will sort the weights to analyze. The research findings can be a basis reference for investors in decision-making.

Keywords: exchange rate risk, derivatives, hedge, multinomial logistic-AHP

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Authors: Kanhaiya Singh

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Indian corporate sector has been raising resources through various international financial instruments important among them are Global depository receipts (GDRs) and American Depository Receipts (ADRs). The purpose of raising resources through such instruments is multifold such as lower cost of capital, increased visibility of the company, liberal tax environment, increased trading liquidity etc. One of the significant reason is also the value addition of the company in terms of market capitalization. Obviously, the stocks of such companies are cross listed, one in India and other at the International stock exchange. The sensitivity and movements of stock prices on one stock exchange as compared to other may have an impact on the price movement of the particular scrip. If there is any relationship exists is an issue of study. Having this in view this study is an attempt to identify the extent of impact of price movement of the scrip on one stock exchange on account of change in the prices on the counter stock exchange. Also there is an attempt to find out the difference between pre and post cross listed domestic firm. The study also analyses the impact of exchange rate movements on stock prices.

Keywords: ADR, GDR, cross listing, liquidity, exchange rate

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Authors: Erfan Memarian, Seyyed Fazayel Alizadeh

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This study aims to evaluate the impacts of the oil and financial markets of the United States on Iran stock exchange and to develop an ARDL model to predict the short and long-term relationship between these markets. In this regard, all 713 weekly data between 28 July 1999 and 20 March 2013 were analyzed by using Microfit4.0 and Eviews7 econometric softwares. The independent variable of the study is the “Price and Yield Index (TEDPIX)” of Tehran Stock Exchange and the independent variables include S & P 500 Index, the US three-month treasury bill rate and West Texas Intermediate oil spot price index. The results show that the West Texas Intermediate oil spot price and the S&P 500 indices have significant positive relationships with Iran's TEDPIX. Also, there exists a significant negative relationship between Iran's TEDPIX and the US three-month Treasury bill rate.

Keywords: TEDPIX; Tehran Stock Exchange; S&P 500 index; USA three-month Treasury bill rate; West Texas Intermediate oil

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Authors: Nomakhosi Tshuma, Carley Chetty

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This study employed panel regression analysis to investigate the financial performance determinants of MTN and Vodacom’s rest of Africa businesses between 2012 to 2020. It used net profit margin, return on assets (ROA), and return on equity (ROE) as financial performance proxies. Financial performance determinants investigated were asset size, debt ratio, liquidity, number of subscribers, and exchange rate. Data relating to exchange rates were obtained from the World Bank website, while financial data and subscriber information were obtained from the companies’ audited financial statements. The study found statistically significant negative relationships between debt and both ROA and net profit, exchange rate and both ROA and net profit, and subscribers and ROE. It also found significant positive relationships between ROE and both asset size and exchange rate. The study recommends strategic options that optimise on the above findings, and these include infrastructure sharing to reduce infrastructure costs and the minimisation of foreign-denominated debt.

Keywords: financial performance, determinants of financial performance, business in Africa, telecommunications industry

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Authors: Shamil Mardi Al Islam, Zaima Ahmed

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The aim of this article is to explore whether certain macroeconomic variables such as industrial index, inflation, broad money, exchange rate and deposit rate as a proxy for interest rate are interlinked with Dhaka stock price index (DSEX index) precisely after the introduction of new index by Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) since January 2013. Bangladesh stock market has experienced rapid growth since its inception. It might not be a very well-developed capital market as compared to its neighboring counterparts but has been a strong avenue for investment and resource mobilization. The data set considered consists of monthly observations, for a period of four years from January 2013 to June 2018. Findings from cointegration analysis suggest that DSEX and macroeconomic variables have a significant long-run relationship. VAR decomposition based on VAR estimated indicates that money supply explains a significant portion of variation of stock index whereas, inflation is found to have the least impact. Impact of industrial index is found to have a low impact compared to the exchange rate and deposit rate. Policies should there aim to increase industrial production in order to enhance stock market performance. Further reasonable money supply should be ensured by authorities to stimulate stock market performance.

Keywords: deposit rate, DSEX, industrial index, VAR

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Authors: Mohammad Azam

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The purpose of this study is to investigate risk and real excess portfolio returns using inflation adjusted risk-free rates, a measuring technique that focuses on the momentum augmented Fama-French six-factor model and use monthly data from 1994 to 2022. With the exception of profitability, the data show that market, size, value, momentum, and investment factors are all strongly associated to excess portfolio stock returns using ordinary lease square regression technique. According to the Gibbons, Ross, and Shanken test, the momentum augmented Fama-French six-factor model outperforms the market. This technique discovery may be utilised by academics and professionals to acquire an in-depth knowledge of the Pakistan Stock Exchange across a broad stock pattern for investing decisions and portfolio construction.

Keywords: real excess portfolio returns, momentum augmented fama & french five-factor model, GRS-test, pakistan stock exchange

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Authors: Gordana Kordić, Petra Palić

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The European countries that during the past two decades based their exchange rate regimes on currency board arrangement (CBA) are usually analysed from the perspective of corner solution choice’s stabilisation effects. There is an open discussion on the positive and negative background of a strict exchange rate regime choice, although it should be seen as part of the transition process towards the monetary union membership. The focus of the paper is on the Baltic countries that after two decades of a rigid exchange rate arrangement and strongly influenced by global crisis are finishing their path towards the euro zone. Besides the stabilising capacity, the CBA is highly vulnerable regime, with limited developing potential. The rigidity of the exchange rate (and monetary) system, despite the ensured credibility, do not leave enough (or any) space for the adjustment and/or active crisis management. Still, the Baltics are in a process of recovery, with fiscal consolidation measures combined with (painful and politically unpopular) measures of internal devaluation. Today, two of them (Estonia and Latvia) are members of euro zone, fulfilling their ultimate transition targets, but de facto exchanging one fixed regime with another. The paper analyses the challenges for the CBA in unstable environment since the fixed regimes rely on imported stability and are sensitive to external shocks. With limited monetary instruments, these countries were oriented to the fiscal policies and used a combination of internal devaluation and tax policy measures. Despite their rather quick recovery, our second goal is to analyse the long term influence that the measures had on the national economy.

Keywords: currency board arrangement, internal devaluation, exchange rate regime, great recession

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Authors: Natalia M. Acevedo, Luis M. Jimenez, Erick Lambis

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Imperfections in the capital market are used to argue the relevance of the corporate risk management function. With corporate hedge, the value of the company is increased by reducing the volatility of the expected cash flow and making it possible to face a lower bankruptcy costs and financial difficulties, without sacrificing tax advantages for debt financing. With the propose to avoid exchange rate troubles over cash flows of Colombian exporting firms, this dissertation uses financial options, over exchange rate between Peso and Dollar, for realizing a financial hedge. In this study, a strategy of hedge is designed for an exporting company in Colombia with the objective of preventing fluctuations because, if the exchange rate down, the number of Colombian pesos that obtains the company by exports, is less than agreed. The exchange rate of Colombia is measured by the TRM (Representative Market Rate), representing the number of Colombian pesos for an American dollar. First, the TMR is modelled through the Geometric Brownian Motion, with this, the project price is simulated using Montecarlo simulations and finding the mean of TRM for three, six and twelve months. For financial hedging, currency options were used. The 6-month projection was covered with financial options on European-type currency with a strike price of $ 2,780.47 for each month; this value corresponds to the last value of the historical TRM. In the compensation of the options in each month, the price paid for the premium, calculated with the Black-Scholes method for currency options, was considered. Finally, with the modeling of prices and the Monte Carlo simulation, the effect of the exchange hedging with options on the exporting company was determined, this by means of the unit price estimate to which the dollars in the scenario without coverage were changed and scenario with coverage. After using the scenarios: is determinate that the TRM will have a bull trend and the exporting firm will be affected positively because they will get more pesos for each dollar. The results show that the financial options manage to reduce the exchange risk. The expected value with coverage is approximate to the expected value without coverage, but the 5% percentile with coverage is greater than without coverage. The foregoing indicates that in the worst scenarios the exporting companies will obtain better prices for the sale of the currencies if they cover.

Keywords: currency hedging, futures, geometric Brownian motion, options

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Authors: K. Bokreta, D. Benanaya

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The objective of this study is to examine the relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy in Algeria using the econometric modelling techniques of cointegration and vector error correction modelling to analyse and draw policy inferences. The chosen variables of fiscal policy are government expenditure and net taxes on products, while the effect of monetary policy is presented by the inflation rate and the official exchange rate. From the results, we find that in the long-run, the impact of government expenditures is positive, while the effect of taxes is negative on growth. Additionally, we find that the inflation rate is found to have little effect on GDP per capita but the impact of the exchange rate is insignificant. We conclude that fiscal policy is more powerful then monetary policy in promoting economic growth in Algeria.

Keywords: economic growth, monetary policy, fiscal policy, VECM

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Authors: Chokri Slim

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The relative failure of simultaneous equation models in the seventies has led researchers to turn to other approaches that take into account the dynamics of economic and financial systems. In this paper, we use an approach based on vector autoregressive model that is widely used in recent years. Their popularity is due to their flexible nature and ease of use to produce models with useful descriptive characteristics. It is also easy to use them to test economic hypotheses. The standard econometric techniques assume that the series studied are stable over time (stationary hypothesis). Most economic series do not verify this hypothesis, which assumes, when one wishes to study the relationships that bind them to implement specific techniques. This is cointegration which characterizes non-stationary series (integrated) with a linear combination is stationary, will also be presented in this paper. Since the work of Johansen, this approach is generally presented as part of a multivariate analysis and to specify long-term stable relationships while at the same time analyzing the short-term dynamics of the variables considered. In the empirical part, we have applied these concepts to study the dynamics of of the exchange rate in Tunisia, which is one of the most important economic policy of a country open to the outside. According to the results of the empirical study by the cointegration method, there is a cointegration relationship between the exchange rate and its determinants. This relationship shows that the variables have a significant influence in determining the exchange rate in Tunisia.

Keywords: stationarity, cointegration, dynamic models, causality, VECM models

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Authors: Risikat Oladoyin S. Dauda, Onyebuchi Iwegbu

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This study investigates the response of human development outcomes to selected macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria. Human development outcomes is measured by human development index while the selected macroeconomic variables are inflation rate, real interest rate, government capital expenditure, real exchange rate, current account balance, and savings. Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) technique is employed in examining the response of human development index to the macroeconomic shocks. The result from the forecast error variance decomposition and Impulse-Response analysis reveals that fiscal policy (government capital expenditure) shock is the greatest determinant of human development outcomes. This result reiterates the role which the government plays in improving the welfare of the citizenry. The fiscal policy tool is pivotal in human development which comes in the form of investment in education, health, housing, and infrastructure. Further conclusion drawn from this study is that human development outcome positively and significantly responds to shocks from real interest rate, a monetary policy transmission variable and is felt greatly in the short run period. The policy implication of this study is that if capital budget implementation falls below expectations, human development will be engendered. Hence, efforts should be made to ensure that full implementation and appraisal of government capital expenditure is taken sacrosanct as any shock from such plan, engenders human development outcome.

Keywords: human development outcome, macroeconomic outcomes, structural vector autoregression, SVAR

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Authors: Mohammad Abu Nassar, Mahmoud Al Khalilah, Hussein Abu Nassar

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The purpose of this study is to examine whether corporate tax avoidance practices can impact firm value in the Jordanian context. The study employs a quantitative approach using s sample of (124) industrial and services companies listed on the Amman Stock Exchange for the period from 2010 to 2019. Multiple linear regression analysis has been applied to test the study's hypothesis. The study employs effective tax rate and book-tax difference to measure tax avoidance and Tobin's Q factor to measure firm value. The results of the study revealed that tax avoidance practices, when measured using effective tax rates, do not significantly impact firm value. When the book-tax difference is used to measure tax avoidance, the study results showed a negative impact on firm value. The result of the study has not supported the traditional view of tax avoidance as a transfer of wealth from the government to shareholders for industrial and services companies listed on the Amman Stock Exchange, indicating that Jordanian firms should not use tax avoidance strategies to enhance their value.

Keywords: tax avoidance, effective tax rate, book-tax difference, firm value, Amman stock exchange

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Authors: Frankie Burgos, Emely Munar, Conrado Basa

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This paper aimed at developing an artificial neural network (ANN) model specifically for the Philippine Stock Exchange index closing value. The inputs to the ANN are US Dollar and Philippine Peso(USD-PHP) exchange rate, GDP growth of the country, quarterly inflation rate, 10-year bond yield, credit rating of the country, previous open, high, low, close values and volume of trade of the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi), gold price of the previous day, National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ), Standard and Poor’s 500 (S & P 500) and the iShares MSCI Philippines ETF (EPHE) previous closing value. The target is composed of the closing value of the PSEi during the 627 trading days from November 3, 2011, to May 30, 2014. MATLAB’s Neural Network toolbox was employed to create, train and simulate the network using multi-layer feed forward neural network with back-propagation algorithm. The results satisfactorily show that the neural network developed has the ability to model the PSEi, which is affected by both internal and external economic factors. It was found out that the inputs used are the main factors that influence the movement of the PSEi closing value.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, artificial intelligence, philippine stocks exchange index, stocks trading

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Authors: Yingjeng James Li, Chih Chi Hsu, Chiao-Chih Hu

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Membrane electrode assemblies MEAs for proton exchange membrane PEM water electrolyzers were prepared by employing 175um perfluorosulfonic acid PFSA membranes as the PEM, onto which iridium oxide catalyst was coated on one side as the anode and platinum catalyst was coated on the other side as the cathode. The cathode catalyst ink was prepared so that the weight ratio of the catalyst powder to ionomer was 75:25, 70:30, 65:35, 60:40, and 55:45, respectively. Whereas, the ratio of catalyst powder to ionomer of the anode catalyst ink keeps constant at 50:50. All the MEAs have a catalyst coated area of 5cm*5cm. The test cell employs a platinum plated titanium grid as anode gas diffusion media; whereas, carbon paper was employed as the cathode gas diffusion media. The measurements of the MEA gases production rate were carried out by holding the cell voltage ranging from 1.6 to 2.8 volts at room temperature. It was found that the MEA with cathode catalyst to ionomer ratio of 65:35 gives the largest hydrogen production rate which is 2.8mL/cm2*min.

Keywords: electrolyzer, membrane electrode assembly, proton exchange membrane, ionomer, hydrogen

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Authors: Seung Yeon Son

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In today’s rapidly changing and increasingly complex environment, organizations have relied on their members’ positive attitude toward their employers. In particular, employees’ organizational commitment (primarily, the effective component) has been recognized as an essential component of organizational functioning and success. Hence, identifying the determinants of effective commitment is one of the most important research issues. This study tested the influence of leader-member exchange (LMX) and exchange ideology on employee’s effective commitment. In addition, the interactive effect of LMX and exchange ideology was examined. Data from 198 members of the Korean military supports each of the hypotheses. Lastly, implications for research and directions for future research are discussed.

Keywords: affective commitment, exchange ideology, leader-member exchange, commitment

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Authors: Naveed Iqbal Chaudhry, Mian Saqib Mehmood, Asif Mehmood

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This study investigates the motivators of foreign direct investment (FDI) which will provide a panacea tool and ground breaking results related to it in case of Pakistan. The study considers exchange rate, market size and human capital as the motivators for attracting FDI. In this regard, time series data on annual basis has been collected for the period 1985–2010 and an Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron (PP) unit root tests are utilized to determine the stationarity of the variables. A bound testing approach to co-integration was applied because the variables included in the model are at I(1) – first level stationary. The empirical findings of this study confirm the long run relationship among the variables. However, market size and human capital have strong positive and significant impact, in short and long-run, for attracting FDI but exchange rate shows negative impact in this regard. The significant negative coefficient of the ECM indicates that it converges towards equilibrium. CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests plots are with in the lines of critical value, which indicates the stability of the estimated parameters. However, this model can be used by Pakistan in policy and decision making. For achieving higher economic growth and economies of scale, the country should concentrate on the ingredients of this study so that it could attract more FDI as compared to the other countries.

Keywords: ARDL, CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests, ECM, exchange rate, FDI, human capital, market size, Pakistan

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Authors: M. Dezvarei, S. Morovati

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In recent years, increasing usage of electrical energy provides a widespread field for investigating new methods to produce clean electricity with high reliability and cost management. Fuel cells are new clean generations to make electricity and thermal energy together with high performance and no environmental pollution. According to the expansion of fuel cell usage in different industrial networks, the identification and optimization of its parameters is really significant. This paper presents optimization of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) parameters based on modified particle swarm optimization with real valued mutation (RVM) and clonal algorithms. Mathematical equations of this type of fuel cell are presented as the main model structure in the optimization process. Optimized parameters based on clonal and RVM algorithms are compared with the desired values in the presence and absence of measurement noise. This paper shows that these methods can improve the performance of traditional optimization methods. Simulation results are employed to analyze and compare the performance of these methodologies in order to optimize the proton exchange membrane fuel cell parameters.

Keywords: clonal algorithm, proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC), particle swarm optimization (PSO), real-valued mutation (RVM)

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Authors: Santi Termprasertsakul, Jakkrich Jearviriyaboonya

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This paper studies the market power and pricing behavior of products in iron and steel industry by investigating the impact of vertical product differentiation (VPD) on exchange rate pass-through (ERPT). Vietnam has become one of the major trading partners of Thailand since 2017. The iron and steel export value to Vietnam is more than $300 million a year. Particularly, the average growth rate of importing iron and steel is approximately 30% per year. The VPD is applied to analyze the quality difference of iron and steel between Thailand and Vietnam. The 20 products in iron and steel industry are investigated. The monthly pricing behavior of Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System 4-digit products is observed from 2010 to 2019. The Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag is also used to analyze the asymmetry of ERPT in this paper. The empirical results basically reveal an incomplete pass-through between Thai Baht and Vietnamese Dong. The ERPT also varies with the degree of VPD. The product with higher VPD, indicating higher unit values, has higher ERPT. This result suggests the higher market power of the Thai iron and steel industry. In addition, the asymmetry of ERPT exists.

Keywords: exchange rate pass-through, iron and steel industry, pricing behavior, vertical product differentiation

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Authors: Diteboho Xaba, Kolentino Mpeta, Tlotliso Qejoe

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This paper assesses the in-sample forecasting of the South African exchange rates comparing a linear ARIMA model and a SETAR model. The study uses a monthly adjusted data of South African exchange rates with 420 observations. Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Schwarz information criteria (SIC) are used for model selection. Mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are error metrics used to evaluate forecast capability of the models. The Diebold –Mariano (DM) test is employed in the study to check forecast accuracy in order to distinguish the forecasting performance between the two models (ARIMA and SETAR). The results indicate that both models perform well when modelling and forecasting the exchange rates, but SETAR seemed to outperform ARIMA.

Keywords: ARIMA, error metrices, model selection, SETAR

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Authors: G. G. Kagramanov, E. N. Farnosova, Linn Maung Maung

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The technologies of ion exchange and nanofiltration can be used for treatment of wastewater containing copper and other heavy metal ions to decrease the environmental risks. Nanofiltration characteristics under water treatment of heavy metals have been studied. The influence of main technical process parameters - pressure, temperature, concentration and pH value of the initial solution on flux and rejection of nanofiltration membranes has been considered. And ion exchange capacities of resins in removal of heavy metal ions from wastewater have been determined.

Keywords: exchange capacity, heavy metals, ion exchange, membrane separation, nanofiltration

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Authors: Jingwen Shi, Qi Wu

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We study the role played interest rate risk in carry trade return in order to understand the forward premium puzzle. In this study, our goal is to investigate to what extent carry trade return is indeed due to compensation for risk taking and, more important, to reveal the nature of these risks. Using option data not only on exchange rates but also on interest rate swaps (swaptions), our first finding is that, besides the consensus currency risks, interest rate risks also contribute a non-negligible portion to the carry trade return. What strikes us is our second finding. We find that large downside risks of future exchange rate movements are, in fact, priced significantly in option market on interest rates. The role played by interest rate risk differs structurally from the currency risk. There is a unique premium associated with interest rate risk, though seemingly small in size, which compensates the tail risks, the left tail to be precise. On the technical front, our study relies on accurately retrieving implied distributions from currency options and interest rate swaptions simultaneously, especially the tail components of the two. For this purpose, our major modeling work is to build a new international asset pricing model where we use an orthogonal setup for pricing kernels and specify non-Gaussian dynamics in order to capture three sets of option skew accurately and consistently across currency options and interest rate swaptions, domestic and foreign, within one model. Our results open a door for studying forward premium anomaly through implied information from interest rate derivative market.

Keywords: carry trade, forward premium anomaly, FX option, interest rate swaption, implied volatility skew, uncovered interest rate parity

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Authors: Rudan Xue, Annika Moscati, Rehel Zeleke Kebede, Peter Johansson

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Successful buildings’ simulation and analysis inevitably require information exchange between multiple building information modeling (BIM) software. The BIM infor-mation exchange based on IFC is widely used. However, Industry Foundation Classifi-cation (IFC) files are not always reliable and information can get lost when using dif-ferent software for modeling and simulations. In this research, interviews with lighting simulation experts and a case study provided by a company producing lighting devices have been the research methods used to identify the necessary steps and data for suc-cessful information exchange between lighting simulation tools and authoring design tools. Model creation, information exchange, and model simulation have been identi-fied as key aspects for the success of information exchange. The paper concludes with recommendations for improved information exchange and more reliable simulations that take all the needed parameters into consideration.

Keywords: BIM, data exchange, interoperability issues, lighting simulations

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Authors: K. Menad, A. Faddeg

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Zeolites are a family of mineral compounds. With special properties that have led to several important industrial applications. Ion exchange has enabled the first industrial application in the field of water treatment. The exchange by aqueous pathway is the method most used in the case of such microporous materials and this technique will be used in this work. The objective of this work is to find performance materials for the recovery of heavy metals such as cadmium. The study is to compare the properties of different ion exchange zeolite Na-X, Na-A, their physical mixture and the composite A (LTA) / X (FAU). After the synthesis of various zeolites X and A, it was designed a model Core-Shell to form a composite zeolite A on zeolite X. Finally, ion exchange studies were performed on these zeolite materials. The cation is exclusively tested for cadmium, a toxic element and is harmful to health and the environment.

Keywords: zeolite A, zeolite X, ion exchange, water treatment

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Authors: Luyao Liu, Dekui Yuan, Xu Li

Abstract:

As one of the most important bays of China, the water exchange capacity of Bohai Bay can influence the economic development and urbanization of surrounding cities. However, the rapid reclamation has influenced the weak water exchange capacity of this semi-enclosed bay in recent years. This paper sets two hydrodynamic models of Bohai Bay with two shorelines before and after reclamation. The mean value and distribution of Turn-over Time, the distribution of residual current, and the feature of the tracer path are compared. After comparison, it is found that Bohai Bay keeps these characteristics; the spending time of water exchange in the northern is longer than southern, and inshore is longer than offshore. However, the mean water exchange time becomes longer after reclamation. In addition, the material spreading is blocked because of the inwardly extending shorelines, and the direction changed from along the shoreline to towards the center after reclamation.

Keywords: Bohai Bay, water exchange, reclamation, turn-over time

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