Search results for: rank estimates
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1083

Search results for: rank estimates

933 Static and Dynamic Tailings Dam Monitoring with Accelerometers

Authors: Cristiana Ortigão, Antonio Couto, Thiago Gabriel

Abstract:

In the wake of Samarco Fundão’s failure in 2015 followed by Vale’s Brumadinho disaster in 2019, the Brazilian National Mining Agency started a comprehensive dam safety programmed to rank dam safety risks and establish monitoring and analysis procedures. This paper focuses on the use of accelerometers for static and dynamic applications. Static applications may employ tiltmeters, as an example shown later in this paper. Dynamic monitoring of a structure with accelerometers yields its dynamic signature and this technique has also been successfully used in Brazil and this paper gives an example of tailings dam.

Keywords: instrumentation, dynamic, monitoring, tailings, dams, tiltmeters, automation

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932 House Price Index Predicts a Larger Impact of Habitat Loss than Primary Productivity on the Biodiversity of North American Avian Communities

Authors: Marlen Acosta Alamo, Lisa Manne, Richard Veit

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Habitat loss due to land use change is one of the leading causes of biodiversity loss worldwide. This form of habitat loss is a non-random phenomenon since the same environmental factors that make an area suitable for supporting high local biodiversity overlap with those that make it attractive for urban development. We aimed to compare the effect of two non-random habitat loss predictors on the richness, abundance, and rarity of nature-affiliated and human-affiliated North American breeding birds. For each group of birds, we simulated the non-random habitat loss using two predictors: the House Price Index as a measure of the attractiveness of an area for humans and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index as a proxy for primary productivity. We compared the results of the two non-random simulation sets and one set of random habitat loss simulations using an analysis of variance and followed up with a Tukey-Kramer test when appropriate. The attractiveness of an area for humans predicted estimates of richness loss and increase of rarity higher than primary productivity and random habitat loss for nature-affiliated and human-affiliated birds. For example, at 50% of habitat loss, the attractiveness of an area for humans produced estimates of richness at least 5% lower and of a rarity at least 40% higher than primary productivity and random habitat loss for both groups of birds. Only for the species abundance of nature-affiliated birds, the attractiveness of an area for humans did not outperform primary productivity as a predictor of biodiversity following habitat loss. We demonstrated the value of the House Price Index, which can be used in conservation assessments as an index of the risks of habitat loss for natural communities. Thus, our results have relevant implications for sustainable urban land-use planning practices and can guide stakeholders and developers in their efforts to conserve local biodiversity.

Keywords: biodiversity loss, bird biodiversity, house price index, non-random habitat loss

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931 Evaluation of Different Waste Management Planning Strategies in an Industrial City

Authors: Leila H. Khiabani, Mohammadreza Vafaee, Farshad Hashemzadeh

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Industrial waste management regulates different stages of production, storage, transfer, recycling and waste disposal. There are several common practices for industrial waste management. However, due to various local health, economic, social, environmental and aesthetic considerations, the most optimal principles and measures often vary at each specific industrial zone. In addition, waste management strategies are heavily impacted by local administrative, legal, and financial regulations. In this study, a hybrid qualitative and quantitative research methodology has been designed for waste management planning in an industrial city. Firstly, following a qualitative research methodology, the most relevant waste management strategies for the specific industrial city were identified through interviews with environmental planning and waste management experts. Forty experts participated in this study. Alborz industrial city in Iran, which hosts more than one thousand industrial units in nine hundred acres, was chosen as the sample industrial city in this study. The findings from the expert interviews at the first phase were then used to design a quantitative questionnaire for the second phase of the study. The aim of the questionnaire was to quantify the relative impact of different waste management strategies in the sample industrial city. Eight waste management strategies and three implementation policies were included in the questionnaire. The experts were asked to rank the relative effectiveness of each strategy for environmental planning of the sample industrial city. They were also asked to rank the relative effectiveness of each planning policy on each of the waste management strategies. In the end, the weighted average of all the responses was calculated to identify the most effective waste management strategy and planning policies for the sample industrial city. The results suggested that among the eight suggested waste management strategies, industrial composting is the most effective (31%) strategy based on the collective evaluation of the local expert. Additionally, the results suggested that the most effective policy (58%) in the city’s environmental planning is to reduce waste generation by prolonging the effective life of industrial products using higher quality and recyclable materials. These findings can provide useful expert guidelines for prioritization between different waste management strategies in the city’s overall environmental planning roadmap. The findings may also be applicable to similar industrial cities. In addition, a similar methodology can be utilized in the environmental planning of other industrial cities.

Keywords: environmental planning, industrial city, quantitative research, waste management

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930 Predicting Returns Volatilities and Correlations of Stock Indices Using Multivariate Conditional Autoregressive Range and Return Models

Authors: Shay Kee Tan, Kok Haur Ng, Jennifer So-Kuen Chan

Abstract:

This paper extends the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model to multivariate CARR (MCARR) model and further to the two-stage MCARR-return model to model and forecast volatilities, correlations and returns of multiple financial assets. The first stage model fits the scaled realised Parkinson volatility measures using individual series and their pairwise sums of indices to the MCARR model to obtain in-sample estimates and forecasts of volatilities for these individual and pairwise sum series. Then covariances are calculated to construct the fitted variance-covariance matrix of returns which are imputed into the stage-two return model to capture the heteroskedasticity of assets’ returns. We investigate different choices of mean functions to describe the volatility dynamics. Empirical applications are based on the Standard and Poor 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones United States Financial Service Indices. Results show that the stage-one MCARR models using asymmetric mean functions give better in-sample model fits than those based on symmetric mean functions. They also provide better out-of-sample volatility forecasts than those using CARR models based on two robust loss functions with the scaled realised open-to-close volatility measure as the proxy for the unobserved true volatility. We also find that the stage-two return models with constant means and multivariate Student-t errors give better in-sample fits than the Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner type of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (BEKK-GARCH) models. The estimates and forecasts of value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional VaR based on the best MCARR-return models for each asset are provided and tested using Kupiec test to confirm the accuracy of the VaR forecasts.

Keywords: range-based volatility, correlation, multivariate CARR-return model, value-at-risk, conditional value-at-risk

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929 On the Mathematical Modelling of Aggregative Stability of Disperse Systems

Authors: Arnold M. Brener, Lesbek Tashimov, Ablakim S. Muratov

Abstract:

The paper deals with the special model for coagulation kernels which represents new control parameters in the Smoluchowski equation for binary aggregation. On the base of the model the new approach to evaluating aggregative stability of disperse systems has been submitted. With the help of this approach the simple estimates for aggregative stability of various types of hydrophilic nano-suspensions have been obtained.

Keywords: aggregative stability, coagulation kernels, disperse systems, mathematical model

Procedia PDF Downloads 277
928 Discontinuous Galerkin Method for Higher-Order Ordinary Differential Equations

Authors: Helmi Temimi

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the super-convergence properties of the discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method applied to one-dimensional mth-order ordinary differential equations without introducing auxiliary variables. We found that nth−derivative of the DG solution exhibits an optimal O (hp+1−n) convergence rates in the L2-norm when p-degree piecewise polynomials with p≥1 are used. We further found that the odd-derivatives and the even derivatives are super convergent, respectively, at the upwind and downwind endpoints.

Keywords: discontinuous, galerkin, superconvergence, higherorder, error, estimates

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927 Exponentiated Transmuted Weibull Distribution: A Generalization of the Weibull Probability Distribution

Authors: Abd El Hady N. Ebraheim

Abstract:

This paper introduces a new generalization of the two parameter Weibull distribution. To this end, the quadratic rank transmutation map has been used. This new distribution is named exponentiated transmuted Weibull (ETW) distribution. The ETW distribution has the advantage of being capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure criteria. Furthermore, eleven lifetime distributions such as the Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, Rayleigh and exponential distributions, among others follow as special cases. The properties of the new model are discussed and the maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters. Explicit expressions are derived for the quantiles. The moments of the distribution are derived, and the order statistics are examined.

Keywords: exponentiated, inversion method, maximum likelihood estimation, transmutation map

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926 Investigating the Effects of Data Transformations on a Bi-Dimensional Chi-Square Test

Authors: Alexandru George Vaduva, Adriana Vlad, Bogdan Badea

Abstract:

In this research, we conduct a Monte Carlo analysis on a two-dimensional χ2 test, which is used to determine the minimum distance required for independent sampling in the context of chaotic signals. We investigate the impact of transforming initial data sets from any probability distribution to new signals with a uniform distribution using the Spearman rank correlation on the χ2 test. This transformation removes the randomness of the data pairs, and as a result, the observed distribution of χ2 test values differs from the expected distribution. We propose a solution to this problem and evaluate it using another chaotic signal.

Keywords: chaotic signals, logistic map, Pearson’s test, Chi Square test, bivariate distribution, statistical independence

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925 Software Architecture Optimization Using Swarm Intelligence Techniques

Authors: Arslan Ellahi, Syed Amjad Hussain, Fawaz Saleem Bokhari

Abstract:

Optimization of software architecture can be done with respect to a quality attributes (QA). In this paper, there is an analysis of multiple research papers from different dimensions that have been used to classify those attributes. We have proposed a technique of swarm intelligence Meta heuristic ant colony optimization algorithm as a contribution to solve this critical optimization problem of software architecture. We have ranked quality attributes and run our algorithm on every QA, and then we will rank those on the basis of accuracy. At the end, we have selected the most accurate quality attributes. Ant colony algorithm is an effective algorithm and will perform best in optimizing the QA’s and ranking them.

Keywords: complexity, rapid evolution, swarm intelligence, dimensions

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924 Science and Mathematics Instructional Strategies, Teaching Performance and Academic Achievement in Selected Secondary Schools in Upland

Authors: Maria Belen C. Costa, Liza C. Costa

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Teachers have an important influence on students’ academic achievement. Teachers play a crucial role in educational attainment because they stand in the interface of the transmission of knowledge, values, and skills in the learning process through the instructional strategies they employ in the classroom. The level of achievement of students in school depends on the degree of effectiveness of instructional strategies used by the teacher. Thus, this study was conceptualized and conducted to examine the instructional strategies preferred and used by the Science and Mathematics teachers and the impact of those strategies in their teaching performance and students’ academic achievement in Science and Mathematics. The participants of the study comprised a total enumeration of 61 teachers who were chosen through total enumeration and 610 students who were selected using two-stage random sampling technique. The descriptive correlation design was used in this study with a self-made questionnaire as the main tool in the data gathering procedure. Relationship among variables was tested and analyzed using Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient and Wilcoxon Signed Rank statistics. The teacher participants under study mainly belonged to the age group of ‘young’ (35 years and below) and most were females having ‘very much experienced’ (16 years and above) in teaching. Teaching performance was found to be ‘very satisfactory’ while academic achievement in Science and Mathematics was found to be ‘satisfactory’. Demographic profile and teaching performance of teacher participants were found to be ‘not significant’ to their instructional strategy preferences. Results implied that age, sex, level of education and length of service of the teachers does not affect their preference on a particular instructional strategy. However, the teacher participants’ extent of use of the different instructional strategies was found to be ‘significant’ to their teaching performance. The instructional strategies being used by the teachers were found to have a direct effect on their teaching performance. Academic achievement of student participants was found to be ‘significant’ to the teacher participants’ instructional strategy preferences. The preference of the teachers on instructional strategies had a significant effect on the students’ academic performance. On the other hand, teacher participants’ extent of use of instructional strategies was showed to be ‘not significant’ to the academic achievement of students in Science and Mathematics. The instructional strategy being used by the teachers did not affect the level of performance of students in Science and Mathematics. The results of the study revealed that there was a significant difference between the teacher participants’ preference of instructional strategy and the student participants’ instructional strategy preference as well as between teacher participants’ extent of use and student participants’ perceived level of use of the different instructional strategies. Findings found a discrepancy between the teaching strategy preferences of students and strategies implemented by teachers.

Keywords: academic achievement, extent of use, instructional strategy, preferences

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923 Multidimensional Poverty and Its Correlates among Rural Households in Limpopo Province, South Africa

Authors: Tamunotonye Mayowa Braide, Isaac Oluwatayo

Abstract:

This study investigates multidimensional poverty, and its correlates among rural households in Sekhukhune and Capricorn District municipalities (SDM & CDM) in Limpopo Province, South Africa. Primary data were collected from 407 rural households selected through purposive and simple random sampling techniques. Analytical techniques employed include descriptive statistics, principal component analysis (PCA), and the Alkire Foster (A-F) methodology. The results of the descriptive statistics showed there are more females (66%) than males (34%) in rural areas of Limpopo Province, with about 45% of them having secondary school education as the highest educational level attained and only about 3% do not have formal education. In the analysis of deprivation, eight dimensions of deprivation, constructed from 21 variables, were identified using the PCA. These dimensions include type and condition of dwelling water and sanitation, educational attainment and income, type of fuel for cooking and heating, access to clothing and cell phone, assets and fuel for light, health condition, crowding, and child health. In identifying the poor with poverty cut-off (0.13) of all indicators, about 75.9% of the rural households are deprived in 25% of the total dimensions, with the adjusted headcount ratio (M0) being 0.19. Multidimensional poverty estimates showed higher estimates of poor rural households with 71%, compared to 29%, which fall below the income poverty line. The study conducted poverty decomposition, using sub-groups within the area by examining regions and household characteristics. In SDM, there are more multidimensionally poor households than in CDM. The water and sanitation dimension is the largest contributor to the multidimensional poverty index (MPI) in rural areas of Limpopo Province. The findings can, therefore, assist in better design of welfare policy and target poverty alleviation programs and as well help in efficient resource allocation at the provincial and local municipality levels.

Keywords: Alkire-Foster methodology, Limpopo province, multidimensional poverty, principal component analysis, South Africa

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922 Changes in Forest Cover Regulate Streamflow in Central Nigerian Gallery Forests

Authors: Rahila Yilangai, Sonali Saha, Amartya Saha, Augustine Ezealor

Abstract:

Gallery forests in sub-Saharan Africa are drastically disappearing due to intensive anthropogenic activities thus reducing ecosystem services, one of which is water provisioning. The role played by forest cover in regulating streamflow and water yield is not well understood, especially in West Africa. This pioneering 2-year study investigated the interrelationships between plant cover and hydrology in protected and unprotected gallery forests. Rainfall, streamflow, and evapotranspiration (ET) measurements/estimates over 2015-2016 were obtained to form a water balance for both catchments. In addition, transpiration in the protected gallery forest with high vegetation cover was calculated from stomatal conductance readings of selected species chosen from plot level data of plant diversity and abundance. Results showed that annual streamflow was significantly higher in the unprotected site than the protected site, even when normalized by catchment area. However, streamflow commenced earlier and lasted longer in the protected site than the degraded unprotected site, suggesting regulation by the greater tree density in the protected site. Streamflow correlated strongly with rainfall with the highest peak in August. As expected, transpiration measurements were less than potential evapotranspiration estimates, while rainfall exceeded ET in the water cycle. The water balance partitioning suggests that the lower vegetation cover in the unprotected catchment leads to a larger runoff in the rainy season and less infiltration, thereby leading to streams drying up earlier, than in the protected catchment. This baseline information is important in understanding the contribution of plants in water cycle regulation, for modeling integrative water management in applied research and natural resource management in sustaining water resources with changing the land cover and climate uncertainties in this data-poor region.

Keywords: evapotranspiration, gallery forest, rainfall, streamflow, transpiration

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921 A Systematic Review on Development of a Cost Estimation Framework: A Case Study of Nigeria

Authors: Babatunde Dosumu, Obuks Ejohwomu, Akilu Yunusa-Kaltungo

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Cost estimation in construction is often difficult, particularly when dealing with risks and uncertainties, which are inevitable and peculiar to developing countries like Nigeria. Direct consequences of these are major deviations in cost, duration, and quality. The fundamental aim of this study is to develop a framework for assessing the impacts of risk on cost estimation, which in turn causes variabilities between contract sum and final account. This is very important, as initial estimates given to clients should reflect the certain magnitude of consistency and accuracy, which the client builds other planning-related activities upon, and also enhance the capabilities of construction industry professionals by enabling better prediction of the final account from the contract sum. In achieving this, a systematic literature review was conducted with cost variability and construction projects as search string within three databases: Scopus, Web of science, and Ebsco (Business source premium), which are further analyzed and gap(s) in knowledge or research discovered. From the extensive review, it was found that factors causing deviation between final accounts and contract sum ranged between 1 and 45. Besides, it was discovered that a cost estimation framework similar to Building Cost Information Services (BCIS) is unavailable in Nigeria, which is a major reason why initial estimates are very often inconsistent, leading to project delay, abandonment, or determination at the expense of the huge sum of money invested. It was concluded that the development of a cost estimation framework that is adjudged an important tool in risk shedding rather than risk-sharing in project risk management would be a panacea to cost estimation problems, leading to cost variability in the Nigerian construction industry by the time this ongoing Ph.D. research is completed. It was recommended that practitioners in the construction industry should always take into account risk in order to facilitate the rapid development of the construction industry in Nigeria, which should give stakeholders a more in-depth understanding of the estimation effectiveness and efficiency to be adopted by stakeholders in both the private and public sectors.

Keywords: cost variability, construction projects, future studies, Nigeria

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920 Utilizing Spatial Uncertainty of On-The-Go Measurements to Design Adaptive Sampling of Soil Electrical Conductivity in a Rice Field

Authors: Ismaila Olabisi Ogundiji, Hakeem Mayowa Olujide, Qasim Usamot

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The main reasons for site-specific management for agricultural inputs are to increase the profitability of crop production, to protect the environment and to improve products’ quality. Information about the variability of different soil attributes within a field is highly essential for the decision-making process. Lack of fast and accurate acquisition of soil characteristics remains one of the biggest limitations of precision agriculture due to being expensive and time-consuming. Adaptive sampling has been proven as an accurate and affordable sampling technique for planning within a field for site-specific management of agricultural inputs. This study employed spatial uncertainty of soil apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) estimates to identify adaptive re-survey areas in the field. The original dataset was grouped into validation and calibration groups where the calibration group was sub-grouped into three sets of different measurements pass intervals. A conditional simulation was performed on the field ECa to evaluate the ECa spatial uncertainty estimates by the use of the geostatistical technique. The grouping of high-uncertainty areas for each set was done using image segmentation in MATLAB, then, high and low area value-separate was identified. Finally, an adaptive re-survey was carried out on those areas of high-uncertainty. Adding adaptive re-surveying significantly minimized the time required for resampling whole field and resulted in ECa with minimal error. For the most spacious transect, the root mean square error (RMSE) yielded from an initial crude sampling survey was minimized after an adaptive re-survey, which was close to that value of the ECa yielded with an all-field re-survey. The estimated sampling time for the adaptive re-survey was found to be 45% lesser than that of all-field re-survey. The results indicate that designing adaptive sampling through spatial uncertainty models significantly mitigates sampling cost, and there was still conformity in the accuracy of the observations.

Keywords: soil electrical conductivity, adaptive sampling, conditional simulation, spatial uncertainty, site-specific management

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919 Integrated Best Worst PROMETHEE to Evaluate Public Transport Service Quality

Authors: Laila Oubahman, Duleba Szabolcs

Abstract:

Public transport stakeholders aim to increase the ridership ratio by encouraging citizens to use common transportation modes. For this sight, improving service quality is a crucial option to reach the quality desired by users and reduce the gap between desired and perceived quality. Multi-criteria decision aid has been applied in literature in recent decades because it provides efficient models to assess the most impacting criteria on the overall assessment. In this paper, the PROMETHEE method is combined with the best-worst approach to construct a consensual model that avoids rank reversal to support stakeholders in ameliorating service quality.

Keywords: best-worst method, MCDA, PROMETHEE, public transport

Procedia PDF Downloads 159
918 Generalization of Tau Approximant and Error Estimate of Integral Form of Tau Methods for Some Class of Ordinary Differential Equations

Authors: A. I. Ma’ali, R. B. Adeniyi, A. Y. Badeggi, U. Mohammed

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An error estimation of the integrated formulation of the Lanczos tau method for some class of ordinary differential equations was reported. This paper is concern with the generalization of tau approximants and their corresponding error estimates for some class of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) characterized by m + s =3 (i.e for m =1, s=2; m=2, s=1; and m=3, s=0) where m and s are the order of differential equations and number of overdetermination, respectively. The general result obtained were validated with some numerical examples.

Keywords: approximant, error estimate, tau method, overdetermination

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917 Design of Agricultural Machinery Factory Facility Layout

Authors: Nilda Tri Putri, Muhammad Taufik

Abstract:

Tools and agricultural machinery (Alsintan) is a tool used in agribusiness activities. Alsintan used to change the traditional farming systems generally use manual equipment into modern agriculture with mechanization. CV Nugraha Chakti Consultant make an action plan for industrial development Alsintan West Sumatra in 2012 to develop medium industries of Alsintan become a major industry of Alsintan, one of efforts made is increase the production capacity of the industry Alsintan. Production capacity for superior products as hydrotiller and threshers set each for 2.000 units per year. CV Citra Dragon as one of the medium industry alsintan in West Sumatra has a plan to relocate the existing plant to meet growing consumer demand each year. Increased production capacity and plant relocation plan has led to a change in the layout; therefore need to design the layout of the plant facility CV Citra Dragon. First step the to design of plant layout is design the layout of the production floor. The design of the production floor layout is done by applying group technology layout. The initial step is to do a machine grouping and part family using the Average Linkage Clustering (ALC) and Rank Order Clustering (ROC). Furthermore done independent work station design and layout design using the Modified Spanning Tree (MST). Alternative selection layout is done to select the best production floor layout between ALC and ROC cell grouping. Furthermore, to design the layout of warehouses, offices and other production support facilities. Activity Relationship Chart methods used to organize the placement of factory facilities has been designed. After structuring plan facilities, calculated cost manufacturing facility plant establishment. Type of layout is used on the production floor layout technology group. The production floor is composed of four cell machinery, assembly area and painting area. The total distance of the displacement of material in a single production amounted to 1120.16 m which means need 18,7minutes of transportation time for one time production. Alsintan Factory has designed a circular flow pattern with 11 facilities. The facilities were designed consisting of 10 rooms and 1 parking space. The measure of factory building is 84 m x 52 m.

Keywords: Average Linkage Clustering (ALC), Rank Order Clustering (ROC), Modified Spanning Tree (MST), Activity Relationship Chart (ARC)

Procedia PDF Downloads 452
916 Optimizing Stormwater Sampling Design for Estimation of Pollutant Loads

Authors: Raja Umer Sajjad, Chang Hee Lee

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Stormwater runoff is the leading contributor to pollution of receiving waters. In response, an efficient stormwater monitoring program is required to quantify and eventually reduce stormwater pollution. The overall goals of stormwater monitoring programs primarily include the identification of high-risk dischargers and the development of total maximum daily loads (TMDLs). The challenge in developing better monitoring program is to reduce the variability in flux estimates due to sampling errors; however, the success of monitoring program mainly depends on the accuracy of the estimates. Apart from sampling errors, manpower and budgetary constraints also influence the quality of the estimates. This study attempted to develop optimum stormwater monitoring design considering both cost and the quality of the estimated pollutants flux. Three years stormwater monitoring data (2012 – 2014) from a mix land use located within Geumhak watershed South Korea was evaluated. The regional climate is humid and precipitation is usually well distributed through the year. The investigation of a large number of water quality parameters is time-consuming and resource intensive. In order to identify a suite of easy-to-measure parameters to act as a surrogate, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied. Means, standard deviations, coefficient of variation (CV) and other simple statistics were performed using multivariate statistical analysis software SPSS 22.0. The implication of sampling time on monitoring results, number of samples required during the storm event and impact of seasonal first flush were also identified. Based on the observations derived from the PCA biplot and the correlation matrix, total suspended solids (TSS) was identified as a potential surrogate for turbidity, total phosphorus and for heavy metals like lead, chromium, and copper whereas, Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) was identified as surrogate for organic matter. The CV among different monitored water quality parameters were found higher (ranged from 3.8 to 15.5). It suggests that use of grab sampling design to estimate the mass emission rates in the study area can lead to errors due to large variability. TSS discharge load calculation error was found only 2 % with two different sample size approaches; i.e. 17 samples per storm event and equally distributed 6 samples per storm event. Both seasonal first flush and event first flush phenomena for most water quality parameters were observed in the study area. Samples taken at the initial stage of storm event generally overestimate the mass emissions; however, it was found that collecting a grab sample after initial hour of storm event more closely approximates the mean concentration of the event. It was concluded that site and regional climate specific interventions can be made to optimize the stormwater monitoring program in order to make it more effective and economical.

Keywords: first flush, pollutant load, stormwater monitoring, surrogate parameters

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915 Epidemiology of Toxoplasma gondii Infection in Animals of the Arabian Peninsula: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Authors: Ebtisam A. Al-Mslemani, Khalid A. Enan, Asmaa Abdelgadier, Nada Assaad, Zaynab Elhussein, Khalid Eltom

Abstract:

Background: Toxoplasma gondii (T. gondii) is a zoonotic parasite that can be transmitted from animals to humans, with felids acting as its definitive host. Thus, understanding the epidemiology of this parasite in animal populations is vital to controlling its transmission to humans as well as to other animal groups. Objectives: This systematic review and meta-analysis aim to summarise and analyse reports of T. gondii infection in animal species residing in the Arabian Peninsula. Methods: It was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA), with relevant studies being retrieved from MEDLINE/PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane Library, Google Scholar and ScienceDirect. All articles published in Arabic or English languages between January 2000 and December 2020 were screened for eligibility. The random effects model was used to calculate the pooled prevalence of T. gondii infection in different animal populations which were found to harbour this infection. The critical appraisal tool for prevalence studies designed by the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) was used to assess the risk of bias in all included studies. Results: A total of 15 studies were retrieved, reporting prevalence estimates from 4 countries in this region and in 13 animal species. A quantitative meta-analysis estimated a pooled prevalence of 43% in felids [95% confidence interval (CI) = 23-64%, I2 index = 100%], 48% in sheep (95% CI = 27-70%, I2 = 99%) and 21% in camels (95% CI = 7-35%, I2 = 99%). Evidence of possible publication bias was found in both felids and sheep. Conclusions: This meta-analysis estimates a high prevalence of T. gondii infection in animal species that are of high economic and cultural importance to countries of this region. Hence, these findings provide valuable insight to public health authorities as well as economic and animal resources advisors in countries of the Arabian Peninsula.

Keywords: Arabian Peninsula, toxoplasma gondii, animals; meta-analysis, toxoplasmosis

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914 Investigating the Atmospheric Phase Distribution of Inorganic Reactive Nitrogen Species along the Urban Transect of Indo Gangetic Plains

Authors: Reema Tiwari, U. C. Kulshrestha

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As a key regulator of atmospheric oxidative capacity and secondary aerosol formations, the signatures of reactive nitrogen (Nr) emissions are becoming increasingly evident in the cascade of air pollution, acidification, and eutrophication of the ecosystem. However, their accurate estimates in N budget remains limited by the photochemical conversion processes where occurrence of differential atmospheric residence time of gaseous (NOₓ, HNO₃, NH₃) and particulate (NO₃⁻, NH₄⁺) Nr species becomes imperative to their spatio temporal evolution on a synoptic scale. The present study attempts to quantify such interactions under tropical conditions when low anticyclonic winds become favorable to the advections from west during winters. For this purpose, a diurnal sampling was conducted using low volume sampler assembly where ambient concentrations of Nr trace gases along with their ionic fractions in the aerosol samples were determined with UV-spectrophotometer and ion chromatography respectively. The results showed a spatial gradient of the gaseous precursors with a much pronounced inter site variability (p < 0.05) than their particulate fractions. Such observations were confirmed for their limited photochemical conversions where less than 1 ratios of day and night measurements (D/N) for the different Nr fractions suggested an influence of boundary layer dynamics at the background site. These phase conversion processes were further corroborated with the molar ratios of NOₓ/NOᵧ and NH₃/NHₓ where incomplete titrations of NOₓ and NH₃ emissions were observed irrespective of their diurnal phases along the sampling transect. Their calculations with equilibrium based approaches for an NH₃-HNO₃-NH₄NO₃ system, on the other hand, were characterized by delays in equilibrium attainment where plots of their below deliquescence Kₘ and Kₚ values with 1000/T confirmed the role of lower temperature ranges in NH₄NO₃ aerosol formation. These results would help us in not only resolving the changing atmospheric inputs of reduced (NH₃, NH₄⁺) and oxidized (NOₓ, HNO₃, NO₃⁻) Nr estimates but also in understanding the dependence of Nr mixing ratios on their local meteorological conditions.

Keywords: diurnal ratios, gas-aerosol interactions, spatial gradient, thermodynamic equilibrium

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913 Smaa-Gaia: A Complementary Tool of the Smaa-Promethee Method

Authors: Y. de Smet, J. Hubinont

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PROMETHEE and GAIA are well-known Multiple Criteria Decision Aid methods. Given an evaluation table and preference parameters they allow to rank the alternatives, to visualize the problem, to perform sensitivity and robustness analysis, etc. Unfortunately, it is often hard for the Decision Maker (DM) to estimate the precise values of these parameters. Therefore an alternative option is to give ranges of potential values in order to apply Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis. This has been recently studied in the context of the SMAA-PROMETHEE method. The aim of this contribution is to propose an SMAA extension of GAIA. We show how this tool can be useful and provide complementary information to SMAA-PROMETHEE. This is illustrated on a pedagogical example.

Keywords: multiple criteria decision making, PROMETHEE, GAIA, SMAA

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912 Internal Mercury Exposure Levels Correlated to DNA Methylation of Imprinting Gene H19 in Human Sperm of Reproductive-Aged Man

Authors: Zhaoxu Lu, Yufeng Ma, Linying Gao, Li Wang, Mei Qiang

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Mercury (Hg) is a well-recognized environmental pollutant known by its toxicity of development and neurotoxicity, which may result in adverse health outcomes. However, the mechanisms underlying the teratogenic effects of Hg are not well understood. Imprinting genes are emerging regulators for fetal development subject to environmental pollutants impacts. In this study, we examined the association between paternal preconception Hg exposures and the alteration of DNA methylation of imprinting genes in human sperm DNA. A total of 618 men aged from 22 to 59 was recruited from the Reproductive Medicine Clinic of Maternal and Child Care Service Center and the Urologic Surgery Clinic of Shanxi Academy of Medical Sciences during April 2015 and March 2016. Demographic information was collected using questionnaires. Urinary Hg concentrations were measured using a fully-automatic double-channel hydride generation atomic fluorescence spectrometer. And methylation status in the DMRs of imprinting genes H19, Meg3 and Peg3 of sperm DNA were examined by bisulfite pyrosequencing in 243 participants. Spearman’s rank and multivariate regression analysis were used for correlation analysis between sperm DNA methylation status of imprinting genes and urinary Hg levels. The median concentration of Hg for participants overall was 9.09μg/l (IQR: 5.54 - 12.52μg/l; range = 0 - 71.35μg/l); no significant difference was found in median concentrations of Hg among various demographic groups (p > 0.05). The proportion of samples that a beyond intoxication criterion (10μg/l) for urinary Hg was 42.6%. Spearman’s rank correlation analysis indicates a negative correlation between urinary Hg concentrations and average DNA methylation levels in the DMRs of imprinted genes H19 (rs=﹣0.330, p = 0.000). However, there was no such a correlation found in genes of Peg3 and Meg3. Further, we analyzed of correlation between methylation level at each CpG site of H19 and Hg level, the results showed that three out of 7 CpG sites on H19 DMR, namely CpG2 (rs =﹣0.138, p = 0.031), CpG4 (rs =﹣0.369, p = 0.000) and CpG6 (rs=﹣0.228, p = 0.000), demonstrated a significant negative correlation between methylation levels and the levels of urinary Hg. After adjusting age, smoking, drinking, intake of aquatic products and education by multivariate regression analysis, the results have shown a similar correlation. In summary, mercury nonoccupational environmental exposure in reproductive-aged men associated with altered DNA methylation outcomes at DMR of imprinting gene H19 in sperm, implicating the susceptibility of the developing sperm for environmental insults.

Keywords: epigenetics, genomic imprinting gene, DNA methylation, mercury, transgenerational effects, sperm

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911 Formulation of a Rapid Earthquake Risk Ranking Criteria for National Bridges in the National Capital Region Affected by the West Valley Fault Using GIS Data Integration

Authors: George Mariano Soriano

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In this study, a Rapid Earthquake Risk Ranking Criteria was formulated by integrating various existing maps and databases by the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) and Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Utilizing Geographic Information System (GIS) software, the above-mentioned maps and databases were used in extracting seismic hazard parameters and bridge vulnerability characteristics in order to rank the seismic damage risk rating of bridges in the National Capital Region.

Keywords: bridge, earthquake, GIS, hazard, risk, vulnerability

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910 A Posteriori Analysis of the Spectral Element Discretization of Heat Equation

Authors: Chor Nejmeddine, Ines Ben Omrane, Mohamed Abdelwahed

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In this paper, we present a posteriori analysis of the discretization of the heat equation by spectral element method. We apply Euler's implicit scheme in time and spectral method in space. We propose two families of error indicators, both of which are built from the residual of the equation and we prove that they satisfy some optimal estimates. We present some numerical results which are coherent with the theoretical ones.

Keywords: heat equation, spectral elements discretization, error indicators, Euler

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909 Importance of CT and Timed Barium Esophagogram in the Contemporary Treatment of Patients with Achalasia

Authors: Sanja Jovanovic, Aleksandar Simic, Ognjan Skrobic, Dragan Masulovic, Aleksandra Djuric-Stefanovic

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Introduction: Achalasia is an idiopathic primary esophageal motility disorder characterized by esophageal peristalsis and impaired swallow-induced relaxation of the lower esophageal sphincter (LES). It is a rare disease that affects both genders with an incidence of 1/100.000 and a prevalence rate of 10/100,000 per year. Objective: Laparoscopic Heller myotomy (LHM) represents a therapy of choice for patients with achalasia, providing excellent outcomes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the significance of computed tomography (CT) in analyzing achalasia subtypes and timed barium esophagogram (TBE) in evaluation of LHM success, as a part of standardized diagnostic protocol. Method: Fifty-one patients with achalasia, confirmed by manometric studies, in addition to standardized diagnostic methods, underwent CT and TBE. CT was done with multiplanar reconstruction, measuring the wall thickness above the esophago-gastric junction in the axial plane. TBE was performed preoperatively and two days postoperatively swallowing low-density barium sulfate, and plane upright frontal films were performed 1, 2 and 5 minutes after the ingestion. In all patients, LHM was done, and pre and postoperative height and weight of the barium column were compared. Results: According to CT findings we divided patients into 3 subtypes of achalasia according to wall thickness: < 4mm as subtype one, between 4 - 9mm as II, and > 10 mm as subtype 3. Correlation of manometric results, as a reference values, and CT findings indicated CT sensitivity of 90% and specificity of 70 % in establishing subtypes of achalasia. The preoperative values of TBE at 1, 2 and 5 minutes were: median barium column height 17.4 ± 7.4, 15.9 ± 6.2 and 13.9 ± 6.2 cm; median column width 5 ± 1.5, 4.7 ± 1.6 and 4.5 ± 1.8 cm respectively. LHM significantly reduced these values (height 7 ± 4.6, 5.8 ± 4.2, 3.7 ± 3.4 cm; width 2.9 ± 1.3, 2.6 ± 1.3 and 2.4 ± 1.4 cm), indicating the quantitative estimates of emptying as excellent (p value < 0.01). Conclusion: CT has high sensitivity and specificity in evaluation of achalasia subtypes, and can be introduced as an additional method for standardized evaluation of these patients. The quantitative assessment of TBE based on measurements of the barium column is an accurate and beneficial method, which adequately estimates esophageal emptying success of LHM.

Keywords: achalasia, computed tomography, esophagography, myotomy

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908 EDM for Prediction of Academic Trends and Patterns

Authors: Trupti Diwan

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Predicting student failure at school has changed into a difficult challenge due to both the large number of factors that can affect the reduced performance of students and the imbalanced nature of these kinds of data sets. This paper surveys the two elements needed to make prediction on Students’ Academic Performances which are parameters and methods. This paper also proposes a framework for predicting the performance of engineering students. Genetic programming can be used to predict student failure/success. Ranking algorithm is used to rank students according to their credit points. The framework can be used as a basis for the system implementation & prediction of students’ Academic Performance in Higher Learning Institute.

Keywords: classification, educational data mining, student failure, grammar-based genetic programming

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907 Observationally Constrained Estimates of Aerosol Indirect Radiative Forcing over Indian Ocean

Authors: Sofiya Rao, Sagnik Dey

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Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction continues to be one of the largest sources of uncertainty in quantifying the aerosol climate forcing. The uncertainty is increasing from global to regional scale. This problem remains unresolved due to the large discrepancy in the representation of cloud processes in the climate models. Most of the studies on aerosol-cloud-climate interaction and aerosol-cloud-precipitation over Indian Ocean (like INDOEX, CAIPEEX campaign etc.) are restricted to either particular to one season or particular to one region. Here we developed a theoretical framework to quantify aerosol indirect radiative forcing using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol and cloud products of 15 years (2000-2015) period over the Indian Ocean. This framework relies on the observationally constrained estimate of the aerosol-induced change in cloud albedo. We partitioned the change in cloud albedo into the change in Liquid Water Path (LWP) and Effective Radius of Clouds (Reff) in response to an aerosol optical depth (AOD). Cloud albedo response to an increase in AOD is most sensitive in the range of LWP between 120-300 gm/m² for a range of Reff varying from 8-24 micrometer, which means aerosols are most sensitive to this range of LWP and Reff. Using this framework, aerosol forcing during a transition from indirect to semi-direct effect is also calculated. The outcome of this analysis shows best results over the Arabian Sea in comparison with the Bay of Bengal and the South Indian Ocean because of heterogeneity in aerosol spices over the Arabian Sea. Over the Arabian Sea during Winter Season the more absorbing aerosols are dominating, during Pre-monsoon dust (coarse mode aerosol particles) are more dominating. In winter and pre-monsoon majorly the aerosol forcing is more dominating while during monsoon and post-monsoon season meteorological forcing is more dominating. Over the South Indian Ocean, more or less same types of aerosol (Sea salt) are present. Over the Arabian Sea the Aerosol Indirect Radiative forcing are varying from -5 ± 4.5 W/m² for winter season while in other seasons it is reducing. The results provide observationally constrained estimates of aerosol indirect forcing in the Indian Ocean which can be helpful in evaluating the climate model performance in the context of such complex interactions.

Keywords: aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction, aerosol-cloud-climate interaction, indirect radiative forcing, climate model

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906 Parametric Approach for Reserve Liability Estimate in Mortgage Insurance

Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

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905 Towards a Measurement-Based E-Government Portals Maturity Model

Authors: Abdoullah Fath-Allah, Laila Cheikhi, Rafa E. Al-Qutaish, Ali Idri

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The e-government emerging concept transforms the way in which the citizens are dealing with their governments. Thus, the citizens can execute the intended services online anytime and anywhere. This results in great benefits for both the governments (reduces the number of officers) and the citizens (more flexibility and time saving). Therefore, building a maturity model to assess the e-government portals becomes desired to help in the improvement process of such portals. This paper aims at proposing an e-government maturity model based on the measurement of the best practices’ presence. The main benefit of such maturity model is to provide a way to rank an e-government portal based on the used best practices, and also giving a set of recommendations to go to the higher stage in the maturity model.

Keywords: best practices, e-government portal, maturity model, quality model

Procedia PDF Downloads 294
904 Learning the Dynamics of Articulated Tracked Vehicles

Authors: Mario Gianni, Manuel A. Ruiz Garcia, Fiora Pirri

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In this work, we present a Bayesian non-parametric approach to model the motion control of ATVs. The motion control model is based on a Dirichlet Process-Gaussian Process (DP-GP) mixture model. The DP-GP mixture model provides a flexible representation of patterns of control manoeuvres along trajectories of different lengths and discretizations. The model also estimates the number of patterns, sufficient for modeling the dynamics of the ATV.

Keywords: Dirichlet processes, gaussian mixture models, learning motion patterns, tracked robots for urban search and rescue

Procedia PDF Downloads 410