Search results for: random non-response

Authors: Carlos Vera, Tetyana Baydyk, Ernst Kussul, Graciela Velasco, Miguel Aparicio

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This article describes the Random Subspace Neural Classifier (RSC) for the recognition of meteors in the night sky. We used images of meteors entering the atmosphere at night between 8:00 p.m.-5: 00 a.m. The objective of this project is to classify meteor and star images (with stars as the image background). The monitoring of the sky and the classification of meteors are made for future applications by scientists. The image database was collected from different websites. We worked with RGB-type images with dimensions of 220x220 pixels stored in the BitMap Protocol (BMP) format. Subsequent window scanning and processing were carried out for each image. The scan window where the characteristics were extracted had the size of 20x20 pixels with a scanning step size of 10 pixels. Brightness, contrast and contour orientation histograms were used as inputs for the RSC. The RSC worked with two classes and classified into: 1) with meteors and 2) without meteors. Different tests were carried out by varying the number of training cycles and the number of images for training and recognition. The percentage error for the neural classifier was calculated. The results show a good RSC classifier response with 89% correct recognition. The results of these experiments are presented and discussed.

Keywords: contour orientation histogram, meteors, night sky, RSC neural classifier, stars

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Authors: Carolina Gouveia, José Vieira, Pedro Pinho

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The cardiopulmonary signal monitoring, without the usage of contact electrodes or any type of in-body sensors, has several applications such as sleeping monitoring and continuous monitoring of vital signals in bedridden patients. This system has also applications in the vehicular environment to monitor the driver, in order to avoid any possible accident in case of cardiac failure. Thus, the bio-radar system proposed in this paper, can measure vital signals accurately by using the Doppler effect principle that relates the received signal properties with the distance change between the radar antennas and the person’s chest-wall. Once the bio-radar aim is to monitor subjects in real-time and during long periods of time, it is impossible to guarantee the patient immobilization, hence their random motion will interfere in the acquired signals. In this paper, a mathematical model of the bio-radar is presented, as well as its simulation in MATLAB. The used algorithm for breath rate extraction is explained and a method for DC offsets removal based in a motion detection system is proposed. Furthermore, experimental tests were conducted with a view to prove that the unavoidable random motion can be used to estimate the DC offsets accurately and thus remove them successfully.

Keywords: bio-signals, DC component, Doppler effect, ellipse fitting, radar, SDR

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Authors: Deniz Peksen

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This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

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Authors: Diogen Babuc

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The question that is a motivation of writing is how many devote themselves to discovering something in the world of science where much is discerned and revealed, but at the same time, much is unknown. Methods: The insightful elements of this algorithm are the ciphering and deciphering algorithms of Playfair, Caesar, and Vigenère. Only a few of their main properties are taken and modified, with the aim of forming a specific functionality of the algorithm called Latin Djokovic. Specifically, a string is entered as input data. A key k is given, with a random value between the values a and b = a+3. The obtained value is stored in a variable with the aim of being constant during the run of the algorithm. In correlation to the given key, the string is divided into several groups of substrings, and each substring has a length of k characters. The next step involves encoding each substring from the list of existing substrings. Encoding is performed using the basis of Caesar algorithm, i.e., shifting with k characters. However, that k is incremented by 1 when moving to the next substring in that list. When the value of k becomes greater than b+1, it’ll return to its initial value. The algorithm is executed, following the same procedure, until the last substring in the list is traversed. Results: Using this polyalphabetic method, ciphering and deciphering of strings are achieved. The algorithm also works for a 100-character string. The x character isn’t used when the number of characters in a substring is incompatible with the expected length. The algorithm is simple to implement, but it’s questionable if it works better than the other methods from the point of view of execution time and storage space.

Keywords: ciphering, deciphering, authentic, algorithm, polyalphabetic cipher, random key, methods comparison

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Authors: Augustine Okolie, Johannes Müller, Mirjam Kretzchmar

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We adopt a maximum-likelihood framework to estimate parameters of a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with contact tracing on a rooted random tree. Given the number of detectees per index case, our estimator allows to determine the degree distribution of the random tree as well as the tracing probability. Since we do not discover all infectees via contact tracing, this estimation is non-trivial. To keep things simple and stable, we develop an approximation suited for realistic situations (contract tracing probability small, or the probability for the detection of index cases small). In this approximation, the only epidemiological parameter entering the estimator is the basic reproduction number R0. The estimator is tested in a simulation study and applied to covid-19 contact tracing data from India. The simulation study underlines the efficiency of the method. For the empirical covid-19 data, we are able to compare different degree distributions and perform a sensitivity analysis. We find that particularly a power-law and a negative binomial degree distribution meet the data well and that the tracing probability is rather large. The sensitivity analysis shows no strong dependency on the reproduction number.

Keywords: stochastic SIR model on graph, contact tracing, branching process, parameter inference

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Authors: Farid Khosravikia, Patricia Clayton

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The main objective of this study is to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various machine learning techniques in forecasting ground-motion intensity measures given source characteristics, source-to-site distance, and local site condition. Intensity measures such as peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA and PGV, respectively) as well as 5% damped elastic pseudospectral accelerations at different periods (PSA), are indicators of the strength of shaking at the ground surface. Estimating these variables for future earthquake events is a key step in seismic hazard assessment and potentially subsequent risk assessment of different types of structures. Typically, linear regression-based models, with pre-defined equations and coefficients, are used in ground motion prediction. However, due to the restrictions of the linear regression methods, such models may not capture more complex nonlinear behaviors that exist in the data. Thus, this study comparatively investigates potential benefits from employing other machine learning techniques as a statistical method in ground motion prediction such as Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. The algorithms are adjusted to quantify event-to-event and site-to-site variability of the ground motions by implementing them as random effects in the proposed models to reduce the aleatory uncertainty. All the algorithms are trained using a selected database of 4,528 ground-motions, including 376 seismic events with magnitude 3 to 5.8, recorded over the hypocentral distance range of 4 to 500 km in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas since 2005. The main reason of the considered database stems from the recent increase in the seismicity rate of these states attributed to petroleum production and wastewater disposal activities, which necessities further investigation in the ground motion models developed for these states. Accuracy of the models in predicting intensity measures, generalization capability of the models for future data, as well as usability of the models are discussed in the evaluation process. The results indicate the algorithms satisfy some physically sound characteristics such as magnitude scaling distance dependency without requiring pre-defined equations or coefficients. Moreover, it is shown that, when sufficient data is available, all the alternative algorithms tend to provide more accurate estimates compared to the conventional linear regression-based method, and particularly, Random Forest outperforms the other algorithms. However, the conventional method is a better tool when limited data is available.

Keywords: artificial neural network, ground-motion models, machine learning, random forest, support vector machine

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Authors: Javier Muro, Anja Linstadter, Florian Manner, Lisa Schwarz, Stephan Wollauer, Paul Magdon, Gohar Ghazaryan, Olena Dubovyk

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Monitoring the trade-off between biomass production and biodiversity in grasslands is critical to evaluate the effects of management practices across environmental gradients. New generations of remote sensing sensors and machine learning approaches can model grasslands’ characteristics with varying accuracies. However, studies often fail to cover a sufficiently broad range of environmental conditions, and evidence suggests that prediction models might be case specific. In this study, biomass production and biodiversity indices (species richness and Fishers’ α) are modeled in 150 grassland plots for three sites across Germany. These sites represent a North-South gradient and are characterized by distinct soil types, topographic properties, climatic conditions, and management intensities. Predictors used are derived from Sentinel-1 & 2 and a set of topoedaphic variables. The transferability of the models is tested by training and validating at different sites. The performance of feed-forward deep neural networks (DNN) is compared to a random forest algorithm. While biomass predictions across gradients and sites were acceptable (r2 0.5), predictions of biodiversity indices were poor (r2 0.14). DNN showed higher generalization capacity than random forest when predicting biomass across gradients and sites (relative root mean squared error of 0.5 for DNN vs. 0.85 for random forest). DNN also achieved high performance when using the Sentinel-2 surface reflectance data rather than different combinations of spectral indices, Sentinel-1 data, or topoedaphic variables, simplifying dimensionality. This study demonstrates the necessity of training biomass and biodiversity models using a broad range of environmental conditions and ensuring spatial independence to have realistic and transferable models where plot level information can be upscaled to landscape scale.

Keywords: ecosystem services, grassland management, machine learning, remote sensing

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Authors: Jay L. Fu

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Patients with Alzheimer's disease progressively lose their memory and thinking skills and, eventually, the ability to carry out simple daily tasks. The disease is irreversible, but early detection and treatment can slow down the disease progression. In this research, publicly available MRI data and demographic data from 373 MRI imaging sessions were utilized to build models to predict dementia. Various machine learning models, including logistic regression, k-nearest neighbor, support vector machine, random forest, and neural network, were developed. Data were divided into training and testing sets, where training sets were used to build the predictive model, and testing sets were used to assess the accuracy of prediction. Key risk factors were identified, and various models were compared to come forward with the best prediction model. Among these models, the random forest model appeared to be the best model with an accuracy of 90.34%. MMSE, nWBV, and gender were the three most important contributing factors to the detection of Alzheimer’s. Among all the models used, the percent in which at least 4 of the 5 models shared the same diagnosis for a testing input was 90.42%. These machine learning models allow early detection of Alzheimer’s with good accuracy, which ultimately leads to early treatment of these patients.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, clinical diagnosis, magnetic resonance imaging, machine learning prediction

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Authors: Abdulaziz Almustafa

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Considering the critical role permanence has on predictions related to the contextual interference effect on laboratory and field research, this study sought to determine whether the paradigm of the effect depends on the complexity of the skill during the acquisition and transfer phases. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the effects of contextual interference CI by extending previous laboratory and field research with adult athletes through the acquisition and transfer phases. Male (n=60) athletes age 18-22 years-old, were chosen randomly from Eastern Province Clubs. They were assigned to complete blocked, random, or serial practices. Analysis of variance with repeated measures MANOVA indicated that, the results did not support the notion of CI. There were no significant differences in acquisition phase between blocked, serial and random practice groups. During the transfer phase, there were no major differences between the practice groups. Apparently, due to the task complexity, participants were probably confused and not able to use the advantages of contextual interference. This is another contradictory result to contextual interference effects in acquisition and transfer phases in sport settings. One major factor that can influence the effect of contextual interference is task characteristics as the nature of level of difficulty in sport-related skill.

Keywords: contextual interference, acquisition, transfer, task difficulty

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Authors: Nor Zaidi Haron, Fauziyah Salehuddin, Norsuhaidah Arshad, Sani Irwan Salim

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Resistive random access memories (RRAMs) are one of the main candidates for future computer memories. However, due to their tiny size and immature device technology, the quality of the outgoing RRAM chips is seen as a serious issue. Defective RRAM cells might behave differently than existing semiconductor memories (Dynamic RAM, Static RAM, and Flash), meaning that they are difficult to be detected using existing test schemes. This paper presents an enhanced test scheme, referred to as Programmable Short Write Time (PSWT) that is able to improve the detection of faulty RRAM cells. It is developed by applying multiple weak write operations, each with different time durations. The test circuit embedded in the RRAM chip is made programmable in order to supply different weak write times during testing. The RRAM electrical model is described using Verilog-AMS language and is simulated using HSPICE simulation tools. Simulation results show that the proposed test scheme offers better open-resistive fault detection compared to existing test schemes.

Keywords: memory fault, memory test, design-for-testability, resistive random access memory

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Authors: Xiaosheng Chen, Jingjing Chen, Phil Reed, Dan Zhang

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Conscious intention can be a promising point cut to grasp consciousness and orient voluntary action. The current study adopted a random ratio (RR), yoked random interval (RI) reinforcement learning schedule instead of the previous highly repeatable and single decision point paradigms, aimed to induce voluntary action with the conscious intention that evolves from the interaction between short-range-intention and long-range-intention. Readiness potential (RP) -like-EEG amplitude and inter-trial-EEG variability decreased significantly prior to voluntary action compared to cued action for inter-trial-EEG variability, mainly featured during the earlier stage of neural activities. Notably, (RP) -like-EEG amplitudes decreased significantly prior to higher RI-reward rates responses in which participants formed a higher plane of conscious intention. The present study suggests the possible contribution of conscious intention-based processes to the neural activities from the earlier stage prior to voluntary action on reinforcement leanring schedule.

Keywords: Reinforcement leaning schedule, voluntary action, EEG, conscious intention, readiness potential

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Authors: Mehmet Savsar, Majid Aldaihani

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Flexible Manufacturing Systems (FMS) are used to produce a variety of parts on the same equipment. Therefore, their utilization is higher than traditional machining systems. Higher utilization, on the other hand, results in more frequent equipment failures and additional need for maintenance. Therefore, it is necessary to carefully analyze operational characteristics and productivity of FMS or Flexible Manufacturing Cells (FMC), which are smaller configuration of FMS, before installation or during their operation. Appropriate models should be developed to determine production rates based on operational conditions, including equipment reliability, availability, and repair capacity. In this paper, a stochastic model is developed for an automated FMC system, which consists of two machines served by two robots and a single repairman. The model is used to determine system productivity and equipment utilization under different operational conditions, including random machine failures, random repairs, and limited repair capacity. The results are compared to previous study results for FMC system with sufficient repair capacity assigned to each machine. The results show that the model will be useful for design engineers and operational managers to analyze performance of manufacturing systems at the design or operational stages.

Keywords: flexible manufacturing, FMS, FMC, stochastic modeling, production rate, reliability, availability

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Authors: Srinivasan Chandrasekaran, R. Nagavinothini

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Offshore platforms for ultra-deep waters are form-dominant by design; hybrid systems with large flexibility in horizontal plane and high rigidity in vertical plane are preferred due to functional complexities. Offshore triceratops is relatively a new-generation offshore platform, whose deck is partially isolated from the supporting buoyant legs by ball joints. They allow transfer of partial displacements of buoyant legs to the deck but restrain transfer of rotational response. Buoyant legs are in turn taut-moored to the sea bed using pre-tension tethers. Present study will discuss detailed dynamic analysis and preliminary design of the chosen geometric, which is necessary as a proof of validation for such design applications. A detailed numeric analysis of triceratops at 2400 m water depth under random waves is presented. Preliminary design confirms member-level design requirements under various modes of failure. Tether configuration, proposed in the study confirms no pull-out of tethers as stress variation is comparatively lesser than the yield value. Presented study shall aid offshore engineers and contractors to understand suitability of triceratops, in terms of design and dynamic response behaviour.

Keywords: offshore structures, triceratops, random waves, buoyant legs, preliminary design, dynamic analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 173

Authors: Selim M. Khan

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Indoor air quality is strongly influenced by the presence of radioactive radon (222Rn) gas. Indeed, exposure to high 222Rn concentrations is unequivocally linked to DNA damage and lung cancer and is a worsening issue in North American and European built environments, having increased over time within newer housing stocks as a function of as yet unclear variables. Indoor air radon concentration can be influenced by a wide range of environmental, structural, and behavioral factors. As some of these factors are quantitative while others are qualitative, no single statistical model can determine indoor radon level precisely while simultaneously considering all these variables across a complex and highly diverse dataset. The ability of AI- machine (deep) learning to simultaneously analyze multiple quantitative and qualitative features makes it suitable to predict radon with a high degree of precision. Using Canadian and Swedish long-term indoor air radon exposure data, we are using artificial deep neural network models with random weights and polynomial statistical models in MATLAB to assess and predict radon health risk to human as a function of geospatial, human behavioral, and built environmental metrics. Our initial artificial neural network with random weights model run by sigmoid activation tested different combinations of variables and showed the highest prediction accuracy (>96%) within the reasonable iterations. Here, we present details of these emerging methods and discuss strengths and weaknesses compared to the traditional artificial neural network and statistical methods commonly used to predict indoor air quality in different countries. We propose an artificial deep neural network with random weights as a highly effective method for assessing and predicting indoor radon.

Keywords: radon, radiation protection, lung cancer, aI-machine deep learnng, risk assessment, risk prediction, Europe, North America

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Authors: Souad Romdhane, Lotfi Belkacem

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When referring to actuarial analysis of lifetime, only models accounting for observable risk factors have been developed. Within this context, Cox proportional hazards model (CPH model) is commonly used to assess the effects of observable covariates as gender, age, smoking habits, on the hazard rates. These covariates may fail to fully account for the true lifetime interval. This may be due to the existence of another random variable (frailty) that is still being ignored. The aim of this paper is to examine the shared frailty issue in the Cox proportional hazard model by including two different parametric forms of frailty into the hazard function. Four estimated methods are used to fit them. The performance of the parameter estimates is assessed and compared between the classical Cox model and these frailty models through a real-life data set from the Quebec Pension Plan and then using a more general simulation study. This performance is investigated in terms of the bias of point estimates and their empirical standard errors in both fixed and random effect parts. Both the simulation and the real dataset studies showed differences between classical Cox model and shared frailty model.

Keywords: life insurance-pension plan, survival analysis, risk factors, cox proportional hazards model, multivariate failure-time data, shared frailty, simulations study

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Authors: Mukesh Kumar Shah, Tushar Gupta

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An Upgraded Cuckoo Search Algorithm is proposed here to solve optimization problems based on the improvements made in the earlier versions of Cuckoo Search Algorithm. Short comings of the earlier versions like slow convergence, trap in local optima improved in the proposed version by random initialization of solution by suggesting an Improved Lambda Iteration Relaxation method, Random Gaussian Distribution Walk to improve local search and further proposing Greedy Selection to accelerate to optimized solution quickly and by “Study Nearby Strategy” to improve global search performance by avoiding trapping to local optima. It is further proposed to generate better solution by Crossover Operation. The proposed strategy used in algorithm shows superiority in terms of high convergence speed over several classical algorithms. Three standard algorithms were tested on a 6-generator standard test system and the results are presented which clearly demonstrate its superiority over other established algorithms. The algorithm is also capable of handling higher unit systems.

Keywords: economic dispatch, gaussian selection operator, prohibited operating zones, ramp rate limits

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Authors: Mohammad Jalali Varnamkhasti

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The genetic algorithms have been very successful in handling difficult optimization problems. The fundamental problem in genetic algorithms is premature convergence. This paper, present a new fuzzy genetic algorithm based on chaotic values instead of the random values in genetic algorithm processes. In this algorithm, for initial population is used chaotic sequences and then a new sexual selection proposed for selection mechanism. In this technique, the population is divided such that the male and female would be selected in an alternate way. The layout of the male and female chromosomes in each generation is different. A female chromosome is selected by tournament selection size from the female group. Then, the male chromosome is selected, in order of preference based on the maximum Hamming distance between the male chromosome and the female chromosome or The highest fitness value of male chromosome (if more than one male chromosome is having the maximum Hamming distance existed), or Random selection. The selections of crossover and mutation operators are achieved by running the fuzzy logic controllers, the crossover and mutation probabilities are varied on the basis of the phenotype and genotype characteristics of the chromosome population. Computational experiments are conducted on the proposed techniques and the results are compared with some other operators, heuristic and local search algorithms commonly used for solving p-median problems published in the literature.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, fuzzy system, chaos, sexual selection

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Authors: Maria Bercea, Bernhard A. Wolf

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The thermodynamic behavior for solutions of poly (methyl methacrylate-ran-t-butyl methacrylate) of variable composition as compared with the corresponding homopolymers was investigated by light scattering measurements carried out for dilute solutions and vapor pressure measurements of concentrated solutions. The complex dependencies of the Flory Huggins interaction parameter on concentration and copolymer composition in solvents of different polarity (toluene and chloroform) can be understood by taking into account the ability of the polymers to rearrange in a response to changes in their molecular surrounding. A recent unified thermodynamic approach was used for modeling the experimental data, being able to describe the behavior of the different solutions by means of two adjustable parameters, one representing the effective number of solvent segments and another one accounting for the interactions between the components. Thus, it was investigated how the solvent quality changes with the composition of the copolymers through the Gibbs energy of mixing as a function of polymer concentration. The largest reduction of the Gibbs energy at a given composition of the system was observed for the best solvent. The present investigation proves that the new unified thermodynamic approach is a general concept applicable to homo- and copolymers, independent of the chain conformation or shape, molecular and chemical architecture of the components and of other dissimilarities, such as electrical charges.

Keywords: random copolymers, Flory Huggins interaction parameter, Gibbs energy of mixing, chemical architecture

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Authors: Newroz Nooralddin Abdulrazaq, Thuraya Mahmood Qaradaghi

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The McEliece cryptosystem is an asymmetric type of cryptography based on error correction code. The classical McEliece used irreducible binary Goppa code which considered unbreakable until now especially with parameter [1024, 524, and 101], but it is suffering from large public key matrix which leads to be difficult to be used practically. In this work Irreducible and Separable Goppa codes have been introduced. The Irreducible and Separable Goppa codes used are with flexible parameters and dynamic error vectors. A Comparison between Separable and Irreducible Goppa code in McEliece Cryptosystem has been done. For encryption stage, to get better result for comparison, two types of testing have been chosen; in the first one the random message is constant while the parameters of Goppa code have been changed. But for the second test, the parameters of Goppa code are constant (m=8 and t=10) while the random message have been changed. The results show that the time needed to calculate parity check matrix in separable are higher than the one for irreducible McEliece cryptosystem, which is considered expected results due to calculate extra parity check matrix in decryption process for g2(z) in separable type, and the time needed to execute error locator in decryption stage in separable type is better than the time needed to calculate it in irreducible type. The proposed implementation has been done by Visual studio C#.

Keywords: McEliece cryptosystem, Goppa code, separable, irreducible

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Authors: Farid Khosravikia, Patricia Clayton

Abstract:

The main objective of this work is to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various machine learning techniques in two key steps of seismic hazard and risk assessment of different types of structures. The first step is the development of ground-motion models, which are used for forecasting ground-motion intensity measures (IM) given source characteristics, source-to-site distance, and local site condition for future events. IMs such as peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA and PGV, respectively) as well as 5% damped elastic pseudospectral accelerations at different periods (PSA), are indicators of the strength of shaking at the ground surface. Typically, linear regression-based models, with pre-defined equations and coefficients, are used in ground motion prediction. However, due to the restrictions of the linear regression methods, such models may not capture more complex nonlinear behaviors that exist in the data. Thus, this study comparatively investigates potential benefits from employing other machine learning techniques as statistical method in ground motion prediction such as Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. The results indicate the algorithms satisfy some physically sound characteristics such as magnitude scaling distance dependency without requiring pre-defined equations or coefficients. Moreover, it is shown that, when sufficient data is available, all the alternative algorithms tend to provide more accurate estimates compared to the conventional linear regression-based method, and particularly, Random Forest outperforms the other algorithms. However, the conventional method is a better tool when limited data is available. Second, it is investigated how machine learning techniques could be beneficial for developing probabilistic seismic demand models (PSDMs), which provide the relationship between the structural demand responses (e.g., component deformations, accelerations, internal forces, etc.) and the ground motion IMs. In the risk framework, such models are used to develop fragility curves estimating exceeding probability of damage for pre-defined limit states, and therefore, control the reliability of the predictions in the risk assessment. In this study, machine learning algorithms like artificial neural network, random forest, and support vector machine are adopted and trained on the demand parameters to derive PSDMs for them. It is observed that such models can provide more accurate estimates of prediction in relatively shorter about of time compared to conventional methods. Moreover, they can be used for sensitivity analysis of fragility curves with respect to many modeling parameters without necessarily requiring more intense numerical response-history analysis.

Keywords: artificial neural network, machine learning, random forest, seismic risk analysis, seismic hazard analysis, support vector machine

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Authors: Showkat Ahmad Lone, Ahmadur Rahman, Ariful Islam

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The major assumption in accelerated life tests (ALT) is that the mathematical model relating the lifetime of a test unit and the stress are known or can be assumed. In some cases, such life–stress relationships are not known and cannot be assumed, i.e. ALT data cannot be extrapolated to use condition. So, in such cases, partially accelerated life test (PALT) is a more suitable test to be performed for which tested units are subjected to both normal and accelerated conditions. This study deals with estimating information about failure times of items under step-stress partially accelerated life tests using progressive failure-censored hybrid data with random removals. The life data of the units under test is considered to follow exponential life distribution. The removals from the test are assumed to have binomial distributions. The point and interval maximum likelihood estimations are obtained for unknown distribution parameters and tampering coefficient. An optimum test plan is developed using the D-optimality criterion. The performances of the resulting estimators of the developed model parameters are evaluated and investigated by using a simulation algorithm.

Keywords: binomial distribution, d-optimality, multiple censoring, optimal design, partially accelerated life testing, simulation study

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Authors: Aysheh Maslemani, Ruth Mayo, Greg Maio, Ariel Knafo-Noam

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Values are abstract ideals that serve as guiding principles in one's life. As inherently positive and desirable concepts, values are seen as motivators for actions and behaviors. However, research has largely ignored the possibility that values may elicit negative feelings despite being explicitly important to us. In the current study, we aim to examine this possibility. Four hundred participants over 18 years(M=41.6, SD=13.7, Female=178) from the UK completed a questionnaire in which they were asked to indicate their level of positive/negative feelings towards a comprehensive list of values and then report the importance of these values to them. The results support our argument by showing that people can have negative feelings towards their values and that people can feel both positive and negative emotions towards their values simultaneously, which means feeling ambivalence. We ran a mixed-effect model with ambivalence, value type, and their interaction as fixed effects, with by subject random intercept and by subject random slope for ambivalence. The results reveal that values that elicit less ambivalence predicted higher ratings for value importance. This research contributes to the field of values on multiple levels. Theoretically, it will uncover new insights about values, such as the existence of negative emotions towards them and the presence of ambivalence towards values. These findings may inspire future studies to explore the effects of ambivalence on people's well-being, behaviors, cognition, and their affect. We discuss the findings and consider their implications for understanding the social psychological mechanisms underpinning value ambivalence.

Keywords: emotion, social cognition, values., ambivalence

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Authors: Aysheh Maslemani, Ruth Mayo, Greg Maio, Ariel Knafo-Noam

Abstract:

Values are abstract ideals that serve as guiding principles in one's life. As inherently positive and desirable concepts, values are seen as motivators for actions and behaviors. However, research has largely ignored the possibility that values may elicit negative feelings despite being explicitly important to us. In the current study we aim to examine this possibility. Four hundred participants over 18 years(M=41.6,SD=13.7,Female=178) from the UK completed a questionnaire in which they were asked to indicate their level of positive/negative feelings towards a comprehensive list of values and then report the importance of these values to them. The results support our argument by showing that people can have negative feelings towards their values and that people can feel both positive and negative emotions towards their values simultaneously, which means feeling ambivalence. We ran a mixed-effect model with ambivalence, value type, and their interaction as fixed effects, with by subject random intercept, and by subject random slope for ambivalence. The results reveal that values that elicit less ambivalence predicted higher ratings for value importance. This research contributes to the field of values on multiple levels. Theoretically, it will uncover new insights about values, such as the existence of negative emotions towards them, the presence of ambivalence towards values. These findings may inspire future studies to explore the effects of ambivalence on people's well-being, behaviors, cognition, and their affect. We discuss the findings and consider their implications for understanding the social psychological mechanisms underpinning value ambivalence.

Keywords: ambivalence, emotion, social cognition, values

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Authors: Behnam Zahednejad, Saeed Kosari

Abstract:

Widespread deployment of Internet of Things (IoT) has raised security and privacy issues in this environment. Designing a secure two-factor authentication scheme between the user and server is still a challenging task. In this paper, we focus on Cancelable Biometric (CB) as an authentication factor in IoT. We show that previous CB-based scheme fail to provide real two-factor security, Perfect Forward Secrecy (PFS) and suffer database attacks and traceability of the user. Then we propose our improved scheme based on CB and Physically Unclonable Functions (PUF), which can provide real two-factor security, PFS, user’s unlinkability, and resistance to database attack. In addition, Key Compromise Impersonation (KCI) resilience is achieved in our scheme. We also prove the security of our proposed scheme formally using both Real-Or-Random (RoR) model and the ProVerif analysis tool. For the usability of our scheme, we conducted a performance analysis and showed that our scheme has the least communication cost compared to the previous CB-based scheme. The computational cost of our scheme is also acceptable for the IoT environment.

Keywords: IoT, two-factor security, cancelable biometric, key compromise impersonation resilience, perfect forward secrecy, database attack, real-or-random model, ProVerif

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Ashok Kalagura

Abstract:

This paper presents a data-mining model for fault-zone identification of flexible AC transmission systems (FACTS)-based transmission line including a thyristor-controlled series compensator (TCSC) and unified power-flow controller (UPFC), using ensemble decision trees. Given the randomness in the ensemble of decision trees stacked inside the random forests model, it provides an effective decision on the fault-zone identification. Half-cycle post-fault current and voltage samples from the fault inception are used as an input vector against target output ‘1’ for the fault after TCSC/UPFC and ‘1’ for the fault before TCSC/UPFC for fault-zone identification. The algorithm is tested on simulated fault data with wide variations in operating parameters of the power system network, including noisy environment providing a reliability measure of 99% with faster response time (3/4th cycle from fault inception). The results of the presented approach using the RF model indicate the reliable identification of the fault zone in FACTS-based transmission lines.

Keywords: distance relaying, fault-zone identification, random forests, RFs, support vector machine, SVM, thyristor-controlled series compensator, TCSC, unified power-flow controller, UPFC

Procedia PDF Downloads 399

Authors: Akiode Ayobami, Akiode Akinsewa, Odeku Mojisola, Salako Busola, Odutolu Omobola, Nuhu Khadija

Abstract:

Purpose: Evidence exists that family planning use can contribute to reduction in infant and maternal mortality in any country. Despite these benefits, contraceptive use in Nigeria still remains very low, only 10% among married women. Understanding factors that predict contraceptive use is very important in order to improve the situation. In this paper, we analysed data from the 2013 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) to better understand predictors of contraceptive use in Nigeria. The use of logistics regression and other traditional models in this type of situation is not appropriate as they do not account for social structure influence brought about by the hierarchical nature of the data on response variable. We therefore used multilevel modelling to explore the determinants of contraceptive use in order to account for the significant variation in modern contraceptive use by socio-demographic, and other proximate variables across the different Nigerian states. Method: This data has a two-level hierarchical structure. We considered the data of 26, 403 married women of reproductive age at level 1 and nested them within the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja at level 2. We modelled use of modern contraceptive against demographic variables, being told about FP at health facility, heard of FP on TV, Magazine or radio, husband desire for more children nested within the state. Results: Our results showed that the independent variables in the model were significant predictors of modern contraceptive use. The estimated variance component for the null model, random intercept, and random slope models were significant (p=0.00), indicating that the variation in contraceptive use across the Nigerian states is significant, and needs to be accounted for in order to accurately determine the predictors of contraceptive use, hence the data is best fitted by the multilevel model. Only being told about family planning at the health facility and religion have a significant random effect, implying that their predictability of contraceptive use varies across the states. Conclusion and Recommendation: Results showed that providing FP information at the health facility and religion needs to be considered when programming to improve contraceptive use at the state levels.

Keywords: multilevel modelling, family planning, predictors, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 384

Authors: Jeremie Coullon, Robert J. Webber

Abstract:

We introduce a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sam-pler for infinite-dimensional inverse problems. Our sam-pler is based on the affine invariant ensemble sampler, which uses interacting walkers to adapt to the covariance structure of the target distribution. We extend this ensem-ble sampler for the first time to infinite-dimensional func-tion spaces, yielding a highly efficient gradient-free MCMC algorithm. Because our ensemble sampler does not require gradients or posterior covariance estimates, it is simple to implement and broadly applicable. In many Bayes-ian inverse problems, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) meth-ods are needed to approximate distributions on infinite-dimensional function spaces, for example, in groundwater flow, medical imaging, and traffic flow. Yet designing efficient MCMC methods for function spaces has proved challenging. Recent gradi-ent-based MCMC methods preconditioned MCMC methods, and SMC methods have improved the computational efficiency of functional random walk. However, these samplers require gradi-ents or posterior covariance estimates that may be challenging to obtain. Calculating gradients is difficult or impossible in many high-dimensional inverse problems involving a numerical integra-tor with a black-box code base. Additionally, accurately estimating posterior covariances can require a lengthy pilot run or adaptation period. These concerns raise the question: is there a functional sampler that outperforms functional random walk without requir-ing gradients or posterior covariance estimates? To address this question, we consider a gradient-free sampler that avoids explicit covariance estimation yet adapts naturally to the covariance struc-ture of the sampled distribution. This sampler works by consider-ing an ensemble of walkers and interpolating and extrapolating between walkers to make a proposal. This is called the affine in-variant ensemble sampler (AIES), which is easy to tune, easy to parallelize, and efficient at sampling spaces of moderate dimen-sionality (less than 20). The main contribution of this work is to propose a functional ensemble sampler (FES) that combines func-tional random walk and AIES. To apply this sampler, we first cal-culate the Karhunen–Loeve (KL) expansion for the Bayesian prior distribution, assumed to be Gaussian and trace-class. Then, we use AIES to sample the posterior distribution on the low-wavenumber KL components and use the functional random walk to sample the posterior distribution on the high-wavenumber KL components. Alternating between AIES and functional random walk updates, we obtain our functional ensemble sampler that is efficient and easy to use without requiring detailed knowledge of the target dis-tribution. In past work, several authors have proposed splitting the Bayesian posterior into low-wavenumber and high-wavenumber components and then applying enhanced sampling to the low-wavenumber components. Yet compared to these other samplers, FES is unique in its simplicity and broad applicability. FES does not require any derivatives, and the need for derivative-free sam-plers has previously been emphasized. FES also eliminates the requirement for posterior covariance estimates. Lastly, FES is more efficient than other gradient-free samplers in our tests. In two nu-merical examples, we apply FES to challenging inverse problems that involve estimating a functional parameter and one or more scalar parameters. We compare the performance of functional random walk, FES, and an alternative derivative-free sampler that explicitly estimates the posterior covariance matrix. We conclude that FES is the fastest available gradient-free sampler for these challenging and multimodal test problems.

Keywords: Bayesian inverse problems, Markov chain Monte Carlo, infinite-dimensional inverse problems, dimensionality reduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Anjali Chouksey, Riya Nimje, Jahanvi Saraf

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Online transactions have increased dramatically in this new ‘social-distancing’ era. With online transactions, Fraud in online payments has also increased significantly. Frauds are a significant problem in various industries like insurance companies, baking, etc. These frauds include leaking sensitive information related to the credit card, which can be easily misused. Due to the government also pushing online transactions, E-commerce is on a boom. But due to increasing frauds in online payments, these E-commerce industries are suffering a great loss of trust from their customers. These companies are finding credit card fraud to be a big problem. People have started using online payment options and thus are becoming easy targets of credit card fraud. In this research paper, we will be discussing machine learning algorithms. We have used a decision tree, XGBOOST, k-nearest neighbour, logistic-regression, random forest, and SVM on a dataset in which there are transactions done online mode using credit cards. We will test all these algorithms for detecting fraud cases using the confusion matrix, F1 score, and calculating the accuracy score for each model to identify which algorithm can be used in detecting frauds.

Keywords: machine learning, fraud detection, artificial intelligence, decision tree, k nearest neighbour, random forest, XGBOOST, logistic regression, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Mandira Mishra, Mark Allen

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This meta-analysis explored whether rejection sensitivity relates to facets of romantic relationships. A comprehensive literature search identified 60 studies (147 effect sizes; 16,955 participants) that met inclusion criteria. Data were analysed using inverse-variance weighted random effects meta-analysis. Mean effect sizes from 21 meta-analyses provided evidence that more rejection sensitive individuals report lower levels of relationship satisfaction and relationship closeness, lower levels of perceived partner satisfaction, a greater likelihood of intimate partner violence (perpetration and victimization), higher levels of relationship concerns and relationship conflict, and higher levels of jealousy and self-silencing behaviours. There was also some evidence that rejection sensitive individuals are more likely to engage in risky sexual behaviour and are more prone to sexual compulsivity. There was no evidence of publication bias and various levels of heterogeneity in computed averages. Random effects meta-regression identified participant age and sex as important moderators of pooled mean effects. These findings provide a foundation for the theoretical development of rejection sensitivity in romantic relationships and should be of interest to relationship and marriage counsellors and other relationship professionals.

Keywords: intimate partner violence, relationship satisfaction, commitment, sexual orientation, risky sexual behaviour

Procedia PDF Downloads 50

Authors: Rikson Gultom

Abstract:

Hate Speech and Abusive language on social media is difficult to detect, usually, it is detected after it becomes viral in cyberspace, of course, it is too late for prevention. An early detection system that has a fairly good accuracy is needed so that it can reduce conflicts that occur in society caused by postings on social media that attack individuals, groups, and governments in Indonesia. The purpose of this study is to find an early detection model on Twitter social media using machine learning that has high accuracy from several machine learning methods studied. In this study, the support vector machine (SVM), Naïve Bayes (NB), and Random Forest Decision Tree (RFDT) methods were compared with the Support Vector machine with genetic algorithm (SVM-GA), Nave Bayes with genetic algorithm (NB-GA), and Random Forest Decision Tree with Genetic Algorithm (RFDT-GA). The study produced a comparison table for the accuracy of the hate speech and abusive language detection model, and presented it in the form of a graph of the accuracy of the six algorithms developed based on the Indonesian-language Twitter dataset, and concluded the best model with the highest accuracy.

Keywords: abusive language, hate speech, machine learning, optimization, social media

Procedia PDF Downloads 97