Search results for: progressive damage modeling

Authors: Amit R. Bhende, G. K. Awari

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Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is one of key technologies to realize prognostics and health management that is being widely applied in many industrial systems to ensure high system availability over their life cycles. The present work proposes a data-driven method of RUL prediction based on multiple health state assessment for rolling element bearings. Bearing degradation data at three different conditions from run to failure is used. A RUL prediction model is separately built in each condition. Feed forward back propagation neural network models are developed for prediction modeling.

Keywords: bearing degradation data, remaining useful life (RUL), back propagation, prognosis

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Authors: Nabil Mekaoui, Nacer Jabour, Abdelhamid Allaoui, Abderahim Oulidi

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The reliability of several insurance indexes of the seismic risk is evaluated and compared for an efficient seismic risk coverage of buildings in Morocco, thus, reducing the basic risk. A large database of earthquake ground motions is established from recent seismic events in Morocco and synthetic ground motions compatible with the design spectrum in order to conduct nonlinear time history analyses on three building models representative of the building stock in Morocco. The uninhabitability index is evaluated based on the simulated damage index, then correlated with preselected insurance indexes. Interestingly, the commonly used peak ground acceleration index showed poor correlation when compared with other indexes, such as spectral accelerations at low periods. Recommendations on the choice of suitable insurance indexes are formulated for efficient seismic risk coverage in Morocco.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, damage, earthquake, reinsurance, seismic hazard, trigger index, vulnerability

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Authors: Nikolaos Reppas, Yilin Gui, Ben Wetenhall, Colin Davie

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Injection of CO2 inside wellbore can induce different kind of loadings that can lead to thermal, hydraulic, and mechanical changes on the surrounding rock. A dual-porosity theoretical constitutive model will be presented for the stability analysis of the wellbore during CO2 injection. An elastoplastic damage response will be considered. A bounding yield surface will be presented considering damage effects on sandstone. The main target of the research paper is to present a theoretical constitutive model that can help industries to safely store CO2 in geological rock formations and forecast any changes on the surrounding rock of the wellbore. The fully coupled elasto-plastic damage Thermo-Hydraulic-Mechanical theoretical model will be validated from existing experimental data for sandstone after simulating some scenarios by using FEM on MATLAB software.

Keywords: carbon capture and storage, rock mechanics, THM effects on rock, constitutive model

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Authors: João Paulo Pascon

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A constitutive model accounting for large strains, thermoviscoplasticity, and ductile damage evolution is proposed in the present work. To this end, a fully Lagrangian framework is employed, considering plane stress conditions and multiplicative split of the deformation gradient. The full model includes Gurson’s void growth, nucleation and coalescence, plastic work heating, strain and strain-rate hardening, thermal softening, and heat conductivity. The contribution of the work is the combination of all the above-mentioned features within the finite-strain setting. The model is implemented in a computer code using triangular finite elements and nonlinear analysis. Two mechanical examples involving ductile damage and finite strain levels are analyzed: an inhomogeneous tension specimen and the necking problem. Results demonstrate the capabilities of the developed formulation regarding ductile fracture and large deformations.

Keywords: ductile damage model, finite element method, large strains, thermoviscoplasticity

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Authors: Ariful Islam, Showkat Ahmad Lone

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Statistical distributions have long been employed in the assessment of semiconductor devices and product reliability. The power function-distribution is one of the most important distributions in the modern reliability practice and can be frequently preferred over mathematically more complex distributions, such as the Weibull and the lognormal, because of its simplicity. Moreover, it may exhibit a better fit for failure data and provide more appropriate information about reliability and hazard rates in some circumstances. This study deals with estimating information about failure times of items under step-stress partially accelerated life tests for competing risk based on adoptive type-I progressive hybrid censoring criteria. The life data of the units under test is assumed to follow Mukherjee-Islam distribution. The point and interval maximum-likelihood estimations are obtained for distribution parameters and tampering coefficient. The performances of the resulting estimators of the developed model parameters are evaluated and investigated by using a simulation algorithm.

Keywords: adoptive progressive hybrid censoring, competing risk, mukherjee-islam distribution, partially accelerated life testing, simulation study

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Authors: Huan-Chieh Chiu, Hung-Shuo Wu, Chien-Hao Wang, Yu-Cheng Yang, Ching-Ya Tseng, Joe-Air Jiang

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Power failure resulting from tower collapse due to violent seismic events might bring enormous and inestimable losses. The Chi-Chi earthquake, for example, strongly struck Taiwan and caused huge damage to the power system on September 21, 1999. Nearly 10% of extra high voltage (EHV) transmission towers were damaged in the earthquake. Therefore, seismic hazards of EHV transmission towers should be monitored and evaluated. The ultimate goal of this study is to establish a damage level assessment model for EHV transmission towers. The data of earthquakes provided by Taiwan Central Weather Bureau serve as a reference and then lay the foundation for earthquake simulations and analyses afterward. Some parameters related to the damage level of each point of an EHV tower are simulated and analyzed by the data from monitoring stations once an earthquake occurs. Through the Fourier transform, the seismic wave is then analyzed and transformed into different wave frequencies, and the data would be shown through a response spectrum. With this method, the seismic frequency which damages EHV towers the most is clearly identified. An estimation model is built to determine the damage level caused by a future seismic event. Finally, instead of relying on visual observation done by inspectors, the proposed model can provide a power company with the damage information of a transmission tower. Using the model, manpower required by visual observation can be reduced, and the accuracy of the damage level estimation can be substantially improved. Such a model is greatly useful for health and construction monitoring because of the advantages of long-term evaluation of structural characteristics and long-term damage detection.

Keywords: damage level monitoring, drift ratio, fragility curve, smart grid, transmission tower

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Authors: Himanshu Payal, Sachin Maheshwari, Pushpendra S. Bharti

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Electrical discharge machining (EDM), a non-conventional machining process, finds wide applications for shaping difficult-to-cut alloys. Process modeling of EDM is required to exploit the process to the fullest. Process modeling of EDM is a challenging task owing to involvement of so many electrical and non-electrical parameters. This work is an attempt to model the EDM process using artificial neural network (ANN). Experiments were carried out on die-sinking EDM taking Inconel 825 as work material. ANN modeling has been performed using experimental data. The prediction ability of trained network has been verified experimentally. Results indicate that ANN can predict the values of performance measures of EDM satisfactorily.

Keywords: artificial neural network, EDM, metal removal rate, modeling, surface roughness

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Authors: Rabin Paudel, Dambar Bahadur Mahato, Prabin Poudel, Bijaya Neupane, Sakar Jha

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Understanding Human-Elephant Conflict (HEC) is very important in countries like Nepal, where solutions to escalating conflicts are urgently required. However, most of the HEC mitigation measures implemented so far have been done on an ad hoc basis without the detailed understanding of nature and extent of the damage. This study aims to assess the current scenario of HEC in regards to crop and property damages by Wild Asian Elephant and people’s perception towards existing mitigating measures and elephant conservation in Buffer zone area of Bardia National Park. The methods used were a questionnaire survey (N= 178), key-informant interview (N= 18) and focal group discussions (N= 6). Descriptive statistics were used to determine the nature and extent of damage and to understand people’s perception towards HEC, its mitigation measures and elephant conservation. Chi-square test was applied to determine the significance of crop and property damages with respect to distance from the park boundary. Out of all types of damage, crop damage was found to be the highest (51%), followed by house damage (31%) and damage to stored grains (18%) with winter being the season with the greatest elephant damage. Among 178 respondents, the majority of them (82%) were positive towards elephant conservation despite the increment in HEC incidents as perceived by 88% of total respondents. Among the mitigation measures present, the most applied was electric fence (91%) followed by barbed wire fence (5%), reinforced concrete cement wall (3%) and gabion wall (1%). Most effective mitigation measures were reinforced concrete cement wall and gabion wall. To combat increasing crop damage, the insurance policy should be initiated. The efficiency of the mitigation measures should be timely monitored, and corrective measures should be applied as per the need.

Keywords: crop and property damage, elephant conflict, Asiatic wild elephant, mitigation measures

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Authors: Tian-Fang Kang, Xue Sun

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DNA damage induced by tetrachloro-1,4-benzoquinone (TCBQ), a reactive metabolite of pentachloro-phenol (PCP), was investigated using a glassy carbon electrode (GCE) modified with calf thymus double-stranded DNA (ds-DNA) in this work. DNA modified films were constructed by layer-by-layer adsorption of polycationic poly(diallyldimethyl- ammonium chloride) (PDDA) and negatively charged ds-DNA on the surface of a glassy carbon electrode. The DNA intercalator [Ru(bpy)2(dppz)]2+ (bpy=2, 2′-bipyridine, dppz0dipyrido [3, 2-a: 2′,3′-c] phenazine) was chosen as an electrochemical probe to detect DNA damage. After the sensor was incubated in 0.1 M pH 7.3 phosphate buffer solution (PBS) for 30min, the intact PDDA/DNA film produced a sensitive electrochemiluminescent (ECL) signal. However, after the sensor was incubated in 100 μM TCBQ or a mixed solution of 100 μM TCBQ and 2 mM H2O2, ECL signal decreased significantly. During the incubation of DNA in TCBQ or TCBQ-H2O2 solution, the double-helix of DNA was damaged, which resulted in the decrease of Ru-dppz bound to DNA. Additionally, the results were verified independently by fluorescence experiments. This paper provides a sensitive method to directly screen DNA damage induced by chemicals in the environment.

Keywords: DNA damage, detection, electrochemiluminescence, sensor

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Authors: Hycham Aboutaleb, Bruno Monsuez

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Current systems complexity has reached a degree that requires addressing conception and design issues while taking into account all the necessary aspects. Therefore, one of the main challenges is the way complex systems are specified and designed. The exponential growing effort, cost and time investment of complex systems in modeling phase emphasize the need for a paradigm, a framework and a environment to handle the system model complexity. For that, it is necessary to understand the expectations of the human user of the model and his limits. This paper presents a generic framework for designing complex systems, highlights the requirements a system model needs to fulfill to meet human user expectations, and defines the refined functional as well as non functional requirements modeling tools needs to meet to be useful in model-based system engineering.

Keywords: system modeling, modeling language, modeling requirements, framework

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Authors: Dinesh Gundavaram

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This paper presents an investigation on bridge damage detection based on the dynamic responses estimated from a passing vehicle. A numerical simulation of steel truss bridge for railway was used in this investigation. The bridge response at different locations is measured using CSI-Bridge software. Several damage scenarios are considered including different locations and severities. The possibilities of dynamic properties of global modes in the identification of structural changes in truss bridges were discussed based on the results of measurement.

Keywords: bridge, damage, dynamic responses, detection

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Authors: Hao Liu, Lihui Zheng, Chinedu J. Okere, Chao Wang, Xiangchun Wang, Peng Zhang

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The coalbed methane (CBM) extraction industry (an unconventional energy source) is yet to promulgated an established standard code of practice for the experimental evaluation of sensitivity damage of coal samples. The existing experimental process of previous researches mainly followed the industry standard for conventional oil and gas reservoirs (CIS). However, the existing evaluation method ignores certain critical differences between CBM reservoirs and conventional reservoirs, which could inevitably result in an inaccurate evaluation of sensitivity damage and, eventually, poor decisions regarding the formulation of formation damage prevention measures. In this study, we propose improved experimental guidelines for evaluating seepage sensitivity damage of CBM reservoirs by leveraging on the shortcomings of the existing methods. The proposed method was established via a theoretical analysis of the main drawbacks of the existing methods and validated through comparative experiments. The results show that the proposed evaluation technique provided reliable experimental results that can better reflect actual reservoir conditions and correctly guide future development of CBM reservoirs. This study is pioneering the research on the optimization of experimental parameters for efficient exploration and development of CBM reservoirs.

Keywords: coalbed methane, formation damage, permeability, unconventional energy source

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Authors: Alireza Pirkhaefi

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Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is one of the most common diseases of the central nervous system (brain and spinal cord). Given the importance of cognitive disorders in patients with multiple sclerosis, the present study was in order to compare cognitive functions (Working memory, Attention and Centralization, and Visual-spatial perception) in patients with relapsing- remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS). Method: Present study was performed as a retrospective study. This research was conducted with Ex-Post Facto method. The samples of research consisted of 60 patients with multiple sclerosis (30 patients relapsing-retrograde and 30 patients secondary progressive), who were selected from Tehran Community of MS Patients Supported as convenience sampling. 30 normal persons were also selected as a comparison group. Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MOCA) was used to assess cognitive functions. Data were analyzed using multivariate analysis of variance. Results: The results showed that there were significant differences among cognitive functioning in patients with RRMS, SPMS, and normal individuals. There were not significant differences in working memory between two groups of patients with RRMS and SPMS; while significant differences in these variables were seen between the two groups and normal individuals. Also, results showed significant differences in attention and centralization and visual-spatial perception among three groups. Conclusions: Results showed that there are differences between cognitive functions of RRMS and SPMS patients so that the functions of RRMS patients are better than SPMS patients. These results have a critical role in improvement of cognitive functions; reduce the factors causing disability due to cognitive impairment, and especially overall health of society.

Keywords: multiple sclerosis, cognitive function, secondary-progressive, normal subjects

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Authors: Ayesha Waqar Khan, Mariam Altaf, Jamil Ahmad, Shaheen Shahzad

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Kidney fibrosis is an anticipated outcome of possibly all types of progressive chronic kidney disease (CKD). Epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) signaling pathway is responsible for production of matrix-producing fibroblasts and myofibroblasts in diseased kidney. In this study, a discrete model of TGF-beta (transforming growth factor) and CTGF (connective tissue growth factor) was constructed using Rene Thomas formalism to investigate renal fibrosis turn over. The kinetic logic proposed by Rene Thomas is a renowned approach for modeling of Biological Regulatory Networks (BRNs). This modeling approach uses a set of constraints which represents the dynamics of the BRN thus analyzing the pathway and predicting critical trajectories that lead to a normal or diseased state. The molecular connection between TGF-beta, Smad 2/3 (transcription factor) phosphorylation and CTGF is modeled using GenoTech. The order of BRN is CTGF, TGF-B, and SMAD3 respectively. The predicted cycle depicts activation of TGF-B (TGF-β) via cleavage of its own pro-domain (0,1,0) and presentation to TGFR-II receptor phosphorylating SMAD3 (Smad2/3) in the state (0,1,1). Later TGF-B is turned off (0,0,1) thereby activating SMAD3 that further stimulates the expression of CTGF in the state (1,0,1) and itself turns off in (1,0,0). Elevated CTGF expression reactivates TGF-B (1,1,0) and the cycle continues. The predicted model has generated one cycle and two steady states. Cyclic behavior in this study represents the diseased state in which all three proteins contribute to renal fibrosis. The proposed model is in accordance with the experimental findings of the existing diseased state. Extended cycle results in enhanced CTGF expression through Smad2/3 and Smad4 translocation in the nucleus. The results suggest that the system converges towards organ fibrogenesis if CTGF remains constructively active along with Smad2/3 and Smad 4 that plays an important role in kidney fibrosis. Therefore, modeling regulatory pathways of kidney fibrosis will escort to the progress of therapeutic tools and real-world useful applications such as predictive and preventive medicine.

Keywords: CTGF, renal fibrosis signaling pathway, system biology, qualitative modeling

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Authors: Nabin Raj Chaulagain

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Most of the concrete bridges in Nepal constructed during 90's and before are made up of low strength ordinary concrete which might be one of the reasons for damage in higher magnitude earthquake. Those bridges were designed by the outdated bridge codes which might not account the large seismic loads. This research investigates the seismic vulnerability of the existing single column ordinary concrete bridge pier by finite element modeling, using the software Seismostruct. The existing bridge pier capacity has been assessed using nonlinear pushover analysis and performance is compared after retrofitting those pier models with CFRP. Furthermore, the seismic evaluation was made by conducting cyclic loading test at different drift percentage. The performance analysis of bridge pier by nonlinear pushover analysis is further validated by energy dissipation phenomenon measured from the hysteric loop for each model of ordinary concrete piers.

Keywords: finite element modeling, ordinary concrete bridge pier, performance analysis, retrofitting

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Authors: Safiqul Islam, Anamul Haque, Mohammad Amran Hossain

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Aim: To compare the dosimetric parameters of the flattened and flattening filter free (FFF) beam and to validate the beam data using anisotropic analytical algorithm (AAA). Materials and Methods: All the dosimetric data’s (i.e. depth dose profiles, profile curves, output factors, penumbra etc.) required for the beam modeling of AAA were acquired using the Blue Phantom RFA for 6 MV, 6 FFF, 10MV & 10FFF. Progressive resolution Optimizer and Dose Volume Optimizer algorithm for VMAT and IMRT were are also configured in the beam model. Beam modeling of the AAA were compared with the measured data sets. Results: Due to the higher and lover energy component in 6FFF and 10 FFF the surface doses are 10 to 15% higher compared to flattened 6 MV and 10 MV beams. FFF beam has a lower mean energy compared to the flattened beam and the beam quality index were 6 MV 0.667, 6FFF 0.629, 10 MV 0.74 and 10 FFF 0.695 respectively. Gamma evaluation with 2% dose and 2 mm distance criteria for the Open Beam, IMRT and VMAT plans were also performed and found a good agreement between the modeled and measured data. Conclusion: We have successfully modeled the AAA algorithm for the flattened and FFF beams and achieved a good agreement with the calculated and measured value.

Keywords: commissioning of a Flattening Filter Free (FFF) , using an Anisotropic Analytical Algorithm (AAA), flattened beam, parameters

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Authors: Xuan Sun, Mingbo Tong

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To understand the factors which affect impact damage on composite structures, particularly the effects of impact position and ribs. In this paper, a finite element model (FEM) of low-velocity impact damage on the composite structure was established via the nonlinear finite element method, combined with the user-defined materials subroutine (VUMAT) of the ABAQUS software. The structural elements chosen for the investigation comprised a series of stiffened composite panels, representative of real aircraft structure. By impacting the panels at different positions relative to the ribs, the effect of relative position of ribs was found out. Then the simulation results and the experiments data were compared. Finally, the factors which affect impact damage on the structures were discussed. The paper was helpful for the design of stiffened composite structures.

Keywords: stiffened, low-velocity impact, Abaqus, impact energy

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Authors: Ashleigh Beales, Anne Whitworth, Jade Cartwright

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Background: While significant benefits of lexical retrieval intervention are evident within the Primary Progressive Aphasia (PPA) and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) literature, an understanding of the mechanisms that underlie change or improvement is limited. Change mechanisms have been explored in the non-progressive post-stroke literature that may offer insight into how interventions affect change with progressive language disorders. The potential influences of cognitive factors may also play a role here, interacting with the aims of intervention. Exploring how such processes have been applied is likely to grow our understanding of how interventions have, or have not, been effective, and how and why generalisation is likely, or not, to occur. Aims: This review of the literature aimed to (1) investigate the proposed mechanisms of change which underpin lexical interventions, mapping the PPA and AD lexical retrieval literature to theoretical accounts of mechanisms that underlie change within the broader intervention literature, (2) identify whether and which nonlinguistic cognitive functions have been engaged in intervention with these populations and any proposed influence, and (3) explore evidence of linguistic generalisation, with particular reference to change mechanisms employed in interventions. Main contribution: A search of Medline, PsycINFO, and CINAHL identified 36 articles that reported data for individuals with PPA or AD following lexical retrieval intervention. A review of the mechanisms of change identified 10 studies that used stimulation, 21 studies utilised relearning, three studies drew on reorganisation, and two studies used cognitive-relay. Significant treatment gains, predominantly based on linguistic performance measures, were reported for all client groups for each of the proposed mechanisms. Reorganisation and cognitive-relay change mechanisms were only targeted in PPA. Eighteen studies incorporated nonlinguistic cognitive functions in intervention; these were limited to autobiographical memory (16 studies), episodic memory (three studies), or both (one study). Linguistic generalisation outcomes were inconsistently reported in PPA and AD studies. Conclusion: This review highlights that individuals with PPA and AD may benefit from lexical retrieval intervention, irrespective of the mechanism of change. Thorough application of a theory of intervention is required to gain a greater understanding of the change mechanisms, as well as the interplay of nonlinguistic cognitive functions.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, lexical retrieval, mechanisms of change, primary progressive aphasia

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Authors: Jooyoung Park, Junkyeong Kim, Aoqi Zhang, Seunghee Park

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Non-destructive testing on cable is in great demand due to safety accidents at sites where many equipments using cables are installed. In this paper, the quantitative change of the obtained signal was analyzed using a magnetic flux leakage (MFL) method. A two-dimensional simulation was conducted with a FEM model replicating real elevator cables. The simulation data were compared for three parameters (depth of defect, width of defect and inspection velocity). Then, an experiment on same conditions was carried out to verify the results of the simulation. Signals obtained from both the simulation and the experiment were transformed to characterize the properties of the damage. Throughout the results, a cable damage detection based on an MFL method was confirmed to be feasible. In further study, it is expected that the MFL signals of an entire specimen will be gained and visualized as well.

Keywords: magnetic flux leakage (mfl), cable damage detection, non-destructive testing, numerical simulation

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Authors: M. Reza Hashemi, Chris Small, Scott Hayward

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The Northeast Coast of the US faces damaging effects of coastal flooding and winds due to Atlantic tropical and extratropical storms each year. Historically, several large storm events have produced substantial levels of damage to the region; most notably of which were the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1938, Hurricane Carol, Hurricane Bob, and recently Hurricane Sandy (2012). The objective of this study was to develop an integrated modeling system that could be used as a forecasting/hindcasting tool to evaluate and communicate the risk coastal communities face from these coastal storms. This modeling system utilizes the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model for storm surge predictions and the Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model for the wave environment. These models were coupled, passing information to each other and computing over the same unstructured domain, allowing for the most accurate representation of the physical storm processes. The coupled SWAN-ADCIRC model was validated and has been set up to perform real-time forecast simulations (as well as hindcast). Modeled storm parameters were then passed to a coastal risk assessment tool. This tool, which is generic and universally applicable, generates spatial structural damage estimate maps on an individual structure basis for an area of interest. The required inputs for the coastal risk model included a detailed information about the individual structures, inundation levels, and wave heights for the selected region. Additionally, calculation of wind damage to structures was incorporated. The integrated coastal risk assessment system was then tested and applied to Charlestown, a small vulnerable coastal town along the southern shore of Rhode Island. The modeling system was applied to Hurricane Sandy and a synthetic storm. In both storm cases, effect of natural dunes on coastal risk was investigated. The resulting damage maps for the area (Charlestown) clearly showed that the dune eroded scenarios affected more structures, and increased the estimated damage. The system was also tested in forecast mode for a large Nor’Easters: Stella (March 2017). The results showed a good performance of the coupled model in forecast mode when compared to observations. Finally, a nearshore model XBeach was then nested within this regional grid (ADCIRC-SWAN) to simulate nearshore sediment transport processes and coastal erosion. Hurricane Irene (2011) was used to validate XBeach, on the basis of a unique beach profile dataset at the region. XBeach showed a relatively good performance, being able to estimate eroded volumes along the beach transects with a mean error of 16%. The validated model was then used to analyze the effectiveness of several erosion mitigation methods that were recommended in a recent study of coastal erosion in New England: beach nourishment, coastal bank (engineered core), and submerged breakwater as well as artificial surfing reef. It was shown that beach nourishment and coastal banks perform better to mitigate shoreline retreat and coastal erosion.

Keywords: ADCIRC, coastal flooding, storm surge, coastal risk assessment, living shorelines

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Authors: I. D. Arroyo

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This article seeks to integrate different concepts from contemporary software engineering with an agile development approach. We seek to clarify some definitions and uses, we make a difference between the Systems Development Life Cycle (SDLC) and the methodologies, we differentiate the types of frameworks such as methodological, philosophical and behavioral, standards and documentation. We define relationships based on the documentation of the development process through formal and ad hoc models, and we define the usefulness of using DevOps and Agile Modeling as integrative methodologies of principles and best practices.

Keywords: methodologies, modeling languages, agile modeling, UML

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Authors: Xian Li, Qing-Guo Wang, Jiangshuai Huang, Jidong Liu, Ming Yu, Tan Kok Poh

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In power industry, accurate electricity demand forecasting for a certain leading time is important for system operation and control, etc. In this paper, we investigate the modeling and forecasting of Singapore’s electricity demand. Several standard models, such as HWT exponential smoothing model, the ARMA model and the ANNs model have been proposed based on historical demand data. We applied them to Singapore electricity market and proposed three refinements based on simulation to improve the modeling accuracy. Compared with existing models, our refined model can produce better forecasting accuracy. It is demonstrated in the simulation that by adding forecasting error into the forecasting equation, the modeling accuracy could be improved greatly.

Keywords: power industry, electricity demand, modeling, forecasting

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Authors: Meng-Fei Cheng, Wei-Lun Chen, Han-Chang Ma, Chi-Che Tsai

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Recent K–12 Taiwan Science Education Curriculum Guideline emphasize the essential role of modeling curriculum in science learning; however, few modeling curricula have been designed and adopted in current science teaching. Therefore, this study aims to develop modeling curriculum on electric circuits to investigate any learning difficulties students have with modeling curriculum and further enhance modeling teaching. This study was conducted with 44 10th-grade students in Central Taiwan. Data collection included a students’ understanding of models in science (SUMS) survey that explored the students' epistemology of scientific models and modeling and a complex circuit problem to investigate the students’ modeling abilities. Data analysis included the following: (1) Paired sample t-tests were used to examine the improvement of students’ modeling abilities and conceptual understanding before and after the curriculum was taught. (2) Paired sample t-tests were also utilized to determine the students’ modeling abilities before and after the modeling activities, and a Pearson correlation was used to understand the relationship between students’ modeling abilities during the activities and on the posttest. (3) ANOVA analysis was used during different stages of the modeling curriculum to investigate the differences between the students’ who developed microscopic models and macroscopic models after the modeling curriculum was taught. (4) Independent sample t-tests were employed to determine whether the students who changed their models had significantly different understandings of scientific models than the students who did not change their models. The results revealed the following: (1) After the modeling curriculum was taught, the students had made significant progress in both their understanding of the science concept and their modeling abilities. In terms of science concepts, this modeling curriculum helped the students overcome the misconception that electric currents reduce after flowing through light bulbs. In terms of modeling abilities, this modeling curriculum helped students employ macroscopic or microscopic models to explain their observed phenomena. (2) Encouraging the students to explain scientific phenomena in different context prompts during the modeling process allowed them to convert their models to microscopic models, but it did not help them continuously employ microscopic models throughout the whole curriculum. The students finally consistently employed microscopic models when they had help visualizing the microscopic models. (3) During the modeling process, the students who revised their own models better understood that models can be changed than the students who did not revise their own models. Also, the students who revised their models to explain different scientific phenomena tended to regard models as explanatory tools. In short, this study explored different strategies to facilitate students’ modeling processes as well as their difficulties with the modeling process. The findings can be used to design and teach modeling curricula and help students enhance their modeling abilities.

Keywords: electric circuits, modeling curriculum, science learning, scientific model

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Authors: Alireza Dantism

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Presently, describing the function of a protein sequence is one of the most common problems in biology. Usually, this problem can be facilitated by studying the three-dimensional structure of proteins. In the absence of a protein structure, comparative modeling often provides a useful three-dimensional model of the protein that is dependent on at least one known protein structure. Comparative modeling predicts the three-dimensional structure of a given protein sequence (target) mainly based on its alignment with one or more proteins of known structure (templates). Comparative modeling consists of four main steps 1. Similarity between the target sequence and at least one known template structure 2. Alignment of target sequence and template(s) 3. Build a model based on alignment with the selected template(s). 4. Prediction of model errors 5. Optimization of the built model There are many computer programs and web servers that automate the comparative modeling process. One of the most important advantages of these servers is that it makes comparative modeling available to both experts and non-experts, and they can easily do their own modeling without the need for programming knowledge, but some other experts prefer using programming knowledge and do their modeling manually because by doing this they can maximize the accuracy of their modeling. In this study, a web-based tool has been designed to predict the tertiary structure of proteins using PHP and Python programming languages. This tool is called EasyModel. EasyModel can receive, according to the user's inputs, the desired unknown sequence (which we know as the target) in this study, the protein sequence file (template), etc., which also has a percentage of similarity with the primary sequence, and its third structure Predict the unknown sequence and present the results in the form of graphs and constructed protein files.

Keywords: structural bioinformatics, protein tertiary structure prediction, modeling, comparative modeling, modeller

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Authors: Jihye Jeon

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This paper analyzes the conceptual framework of three statistical methods, multiple regression, path analysis, and structural equation models. When establishing research model of the statistical modeling of complex social phenomenon, it is important to know the strengths and limitations of three statistical models. This study explored the character, strength, and limitation of each modeling and suggested some strategies for accurate explaining or predicting the causal relationships among variables. Especially, on the studying of depression or mental health, the common mistakes of research modeling were discussed.

Keywords: multiple regression, path analysis, structural equation models, statistical modeling, social and psychological phenomenon

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Authors: Talebi Aliasghar, Ebrahimpour Komeleh Hooman, Maghsoudi Ali Akbar

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In reinforced concrete (RC) structures, beam-column connection region has a considerable effect on the behavior of structures. Using fiber reinforcement polymer (FRP) for the strengthening of connections in RC structures can be one of the solutions to retrofitting this zone which result in the enhanced behavior of structure. In this paper, these changes in behavior by using FRP for high strength concrete beam-column connection have been studied by finite element modeling. The concrete damage plasticity (CDP) model has been used to analyze the RC. The results illustrated a considerable development in load-bearing capacity but also a noticeable reduction in ductility. The study also assesses these qualities for several modes of strengthening and suggests the most effective mode of strengthening. Using FRP in flexural zone and FRP with 45-degree oriented fibers in shear zone of joint showed the most significant change in behavior.

Keywords: HSC, beam-column connection, Fiber Reinforcement Polymer, FRP, Finite Element Modeling, FEM

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Authors: N. H. Hamid, N. M. Mohamed, S. A. Anuar

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Precast residential houses are normally constructed in Malaysia using precast shear-key wall panel and precast wall panel are designed using BS8110 where there is no provision for earthquake. However, the safety of this house under moderate and strong earthquake is still questionable. Consequently, the full-scale of residential house are designed, constructed, tested and analyzed under in-plane lateral cyclic loading. Hysteresis loops are plotted based on the experimental work and compared with modeling of hysteresis loops using HYSTERES in RUAUMOKO 2D program. Modified Takeda hysteresis model is chosen to behave a similar pattern with experimental work. This program will display the earthquake excitations, spectral displacements, pseudo spectral acceleration, and deformation shape of the structure. It can be concluded that this building is suffering severe cracks and damage under moderate and severe earthquake.

Keywords: precast shear-key, hysteresis loops, spectral displacements, deformation shape

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Authors: Assia Galleze, Abdurrahim Kocyigit, Nacira Cherif, Nidel Benhalilou, Nabila Attal, Chafia Touil Boukkoffa, Rachida Raache

Abstract:

Introduction and aims: Chemotherapeutic agents used to inhibit cell division and reduce tumor growth, increase reactive oxygen species levels, which contributes to their genotoxicity [1]. The comet assay is an inexpensive and rapid method to detect the damage at cellular levels and has been used in various cancer populations undergoing chemotherapy [2,3]. The present study aim to assess the oxidative stress and the genotoxicity induced by chemotherapy by the determination of plasma malondialdehyde (MDA) level, protein carbonyl (PC) content, superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity and lymphocyte DNA damage in Algerian children with lymphoma. Materials and Methods: For our study, we selected thirty children with lymphoma treated in university hospital of Beni Messous, Algeria, and fifty unrelated subjects as controls, after obtaining the informed consent in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki (1964). Plasma levels of MDA, PC and SOD activity were spectrophotometrically measured, while DNA damage was assessed by alkaline comet assay in peripheral blood leukocytes. Results and Discussion: Plasma MDA, PC levels and lymphocyte DNA damage, were found to be significantly higher in lymphoma patients than in controls (p < 0.001). Whereas, SOD activity in lymphoma patients was significantly lower than in healthy controls (p < 0.001). There were significant positive correlations between DNA damage, MDA and PC in patients (r = 0.96, p < 0.001, r = 0.97, p < 0.001, respectively), and negative correlation with SOD (r = 0.87, p < 0.01). Conclusion and Perspective: Our results indicated that, leukocytes DNA damage and oxidative stress were significantly higher in lymphoma patients, suggesting that the direct effect of chemotherapy and the alteration of the redox balance may influence oxidative/antioxidative status.

Keywords: chemotherapy, comet assay, DNA damage, lymphoma

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Authors: Mohsen Hababalahi, Morteza Bastami

Abstract:

Buried pipeline damage correlations are critical part of loss estimation procedures applied to lifelines for future earthquakes. The vulnerability of buried pipelines against earthquake and liquefaction has been observed during some of previous earthquakes and there are a lot of comprehensive reports about this event. One of the main reasons for impairment of buried pipelines during earthquake is liquefaction. Necessary conditions for this phenomenon are loose sandy soil, saturation of soil layer and earthquake intensity. Because of this fact that pipelines structure are very different from other structures (being long and having light mass) by paying attention to the results of previous earthquakes and compare them with other structures, it is obvious that the danger of liquefaction for buried pipelines is not high risked, unless effective parameters like earthquake intensity and non-dense soil and other factors be high. Recent liquefaction researches for buried pipeline include experimental and theoretical ones as well as damage investigations during actual earthquakes. The damage investigations have revealed that a damage ratio of pipelines (Number/km ) has much larger values in liquefied grounds compared with one in shaking grounds without liquefaction according to damage statistics during past severe earthquakes, and that damages of joints and pipelines connected with manholes were remarkable. The purpose of this research is numerical study of buried pipelines under the effect of liquefaction by case study of the 2013 Dashti (Iran) earthquake. Water supply and electrical distribution systems of this township interrupted during earthquake and water transmission pipelines were damaged severely due to occurrence of liquefaction. The model consists of a polyethylene pipeline with 100 meters length and 0.8 meter diameter which is covered by light sandy soil and the depth of burial is 2.5 meters from surface. Since finite element method is used relatively successfully in order to solve geotechnical problems, we used this method for numerical analysis. For evaluating this case, some information like geotechnical information, classification of earthquakes levels, determining the effective parameters in probability of liquefaction, three dimensional numerical finite element modeling of interaction between soil and pipelines are necessary. The results of this study on buried pipelines indicate that the effect of liquefaction is function of pipe diameter, type of soil, and peak ground acceleration. There is a clear increase in percentage of damage with increasing the liquefaction severity. The results indicate that although in this form of the analysis, the damage is always associated to a certain pipe material, but the nominally defined “failures” include by failures of particular components (joints, connections, fire hydrant details, crossovers, laterals) rather than material failures. At the end, there are some retrofit suggestions in order to decrease the risk of liquefaction on buried pipelines.

Keywords: liquefaction, buried pipelines, lifelines, earthquake, finite element method

Procedia PDF Downloads 479

Authors: Adinarayana Badveeti, Mohammad Shafi Mir

Abstract:

In Srinagar city, in India, road safety is an important aspect that creates ecological balance and social well being. A road accident creates a situation that leaves behind distress, sorrow, and sufferings. Therefore identification of causes of road accidents becomes highly essential for adopting necessary preventive measures against a critical event. The damage created by road accidents to large extent is unrepairable and therefore needs attention to eradicate this continuously increasing trend of awful 'epidemic'. Road accident in India is among the highest in the world, with at least approximately 142.000 people killed each year on the road. Kashmir region is an ecologically sensitive place but lacks necessary facilities and infrastructure regarding road transportation, ultimately resulting in the critical event-road accidents creating a major problem for common people in the region. The objective of this project is to study the safety aspect of Srinagar City and also model the accidents with different aspect that causes accidents and also to suggest the possible remedies for lessening/eliminating the road accidents.

Keywords: road safety, road accident, road infrastructure, accident modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 220