Search results for: portfolio analysis

Authors: Erindi Allaj

Abstract:

This paper studies arbitrage pricing theory in financial markets with transaction costs. We extend the existing theory to include the more realistic possibility that the price at which the investors trade is dependent on the traded volume. The investors in the market always buy at the ask and sell at the bid price. Transaction costs are composed of two terms, one is able to capture the implicit transaction costs and the other the price impact. Moreover, a new definition of a self-financing portfolio is obtained. The self-financing condition suggests that continuous trading is possible, but is restricted to predictable trading strategies which have left and right limit and finite quadratic variation. That is, predictable trading strategies of infinite variation and of finite quadratic variation are allowed in our setting. Within this framework, the existence of an equivalent probability measure is equivalent to the absence of arbitrage opportunities, so that the first fundamental theorem of asset pricing (FFTAP) holds. It is also proved that, when this probability measure is unique, any contingent claim in the market is hedgeable in an L2-sense. The price of any contingent claim is equal to the risk-neutral price. To better understand how to apply the theory proposed we provide an example with linear transaction costs.

Keywords: arbitrage pricing theory,
transaction costs, fundamental theorems of arbitrage, financial markets

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Authors: Emmanuel U. Unuafe, Oyegoke T. Bukoye, Sandhya Sastry, Yanqing Duan

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Globally, there is increasing interest in project management due to a shortage in infrastructure services supply capability. Hence, it is of utmost importance that organisations understand that choosing a particular project over another is an opportunity cost – tying up the organisations resources. In order to devise constructive ways to bring direction, structure, and oversight to the process of project selection has led to the development of tools and techniques by researchers and practitioners. However, despite the development of various frameworks to assist in the appraisal and selection of government projects, failures are still being recorded with government projects. In developing countries, where frameworks are rarely used, the problems are compounded. To improve the situation, this study will investigate the current practice of construction project selection processes within the Nigeria public sector in order to inform theories of decision making from the perspective of developing nations and project management practice. Unlike other research around construction projects in Nigeria this research concentrate on factors influencing the selection process within the Nigeria public sector, which has received limited study. The authors report the findings of semi-structured interviews of top management in the Nigerian public sector and draw conclusions in terms of decision making extant theory and current practice. Preliminary results from the data analysis show that groups make project selection decisions and this forces sub-optimal decisions due to pressure on time, clashes of interest, lack of standardised framework for selecting projects, lack of accountability and poor leadership. Consequently, because decision maker is usually drawn from different fields, religious beliefs, ethnic group and with different languages. The choice of a project by an individual will be greatly influence by experience, political precedence than by realistic investigation as well as his understanding of the desired outcome of the project, in other words, the individual’s ideology and their level of fairness.

Keywords: factors influencing project selection, public sector construction project selection, projects portfolio selection, strategic decision-making

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Authors: Bakr Zade, Paolo Cervera

Abstract:

With the aim of maximising return on innovation investments, organisations create central units to support successful implementation of innovation management initiatives. The support units–referred to in this research as innovation management offices (IMOs)–range from small teams of innovation management champions to fully resourced centres of excellence for innovation management. However, roles and responsibilities of IMOs vary in different organisations. This research investigates the different types of IMO in organisations, based on their different roles and responsibilities in supporting innovation management processes. The research uses grounded theory methodology to uncover an IMO taxonomy from emergent concepts during innovation management maturity assessment exercises in twelve organisations from the United Kingdom and the United Arab Emirates. The taxonomy distinguishes five types of IMO, based on their roles and responsibilities in supporting innovation management processes, from organisational strategic foresight to managing innovation management project portfolios. The IMO taxonomy addresses a gap in research into innovation management support in organisations and offers a practical framework that diverse organisations can appreciate and use in designing IMOs that are aligned with their innovation management visions and strategies.

Keywords: future foresight, future shaping, innovation management, innovation management office, portfolio management

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Authors: Stefanie Behncke

Abstract:

This paper analyses the effects of different macroprudential policy measures that have recently been implemented in Switzerland. Among them is the activation and the increase of the countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) and a tightening of loan-to-value (LTV) requirements. These measures were introduced to limit systemic risks in the Swiss mortgage and real estate markets. They were meant to affect mortgage growth, mortgage risks, and banks’ capital buffers. Evaluation of their quantitative effects provides insights for Swiss policymakers when reassessing their policy. It is also informative for policymakers in other countries who plan to introduce macroprudential instruments. We estimate the effects of the different macroprudential measures with a Differences-in-Differences estimator. Banks differ with respect to the relative importance of mortgages in their portfolio, their riskiness, and their capital buffers. Thus, some of the banks were more affected than others by the CCB, while others were more affected by the LTV requirements. Our analysis is made possible by an unusually informative bank panel data set. It combines data on newly issued mortgage loans and quantitative risk indicators such as LTV and loan-to-income (LTI) ratios with supervisory information on banks’ capital and liquidity situation and balance sheets. Our results suggest that the LTV cap of 90% was most effective. The proportion of new mortgages with a high LTV ratio was significantly reduced. This result does not only apply to the 90% LTV, but also to other threshold values (e.g. 80%, 75%) suggesting that the entire upper part of the LTV distribution was affected. Other outcomes such as the LTI distribution, the growth rates of mortgages and other credits, however, were not significantly affected. Regarding the activation and the increase of the CCB, we do not find any significant effects: neither LTV/LTI risk parameters nor mortgage and other credit growth rates were significantly reduced. This result may reflect that the size of the CCB (1% of relevant residential real estate risk-weighted assets at activation, respectively 2% at the increase) was not sufficiently high enough to trigger a distinct reaction between the banks most likely to be affected by the CCB and those serving as controls. Still, it might be have been effective in increasing the resilience in the overall banking system. From a policy perspective, these results suggest that targeted macroprudential policy measures can contribute to financial stability. In line with findings by others, caps on LTV reduced risk taking in Switzerland. To fully assess the effectiveness of the CCB, further experience is needed.

Keywords: banks, financial stability, macroprudential policy, mortgages

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Authors: Severino Machingambi

Abstract:

Most academics entering Higher education as lecturers in South Africa do not have qualifications in Education or teaching. This creates serious problems since they are not sufficiently equipped with pedagogical approaches and theories that inform their facilitation of learning strategies. This, arguably, is one of the reasons why higher education institutions are experiencing high student failure rate. In order to mitigate this problem, it is critical that higher education institutions devise internal academic staff development programmes to capacitate academics with pedagogical skills and competencies so as to enhance the quality of student learning. This paper reported on how the Teaching and Learning Development Centre of a university used design-based research methodology to conceptualise and implement an academic staff development programme for new academics at a university of technology. This approach revolves around the designing, testing and refining of an educational intervention. Design-based research is an important methodology for understanding how, when, and why educational innovations work in practice. The need for a professional development course for academics arose due to the fact that most academics at the university did not have teaching qualifications and many of them were employed straight from industry with little understanding of pedagogical approaches. This paper examines three key aspects of the programme namely, the preliminary phase, the teaching experiment and the retrospective analysis. The preliminary phase is the stage in which the problem identification takes place. The problem that this research sought to address relates to the unsatisfactory academic performance of the majority of the students in the institution. It was therefore hypothesized that the problem could be dealt with by professionalising new academics through engagement in an academic staff development programme. The teaching experiment phase afforded researchers and participants in the programme the opportunity to test and refine the proposed intervention and the design principles upon which it was based. The teaching experiment phase revolved around the testing of the new academics professional development programme. This phase created a platform for researchers and academics in the programme to experiment with various activities and instructional strategies such as case studies, observations, discussions and portfolio building. The teaching experiment phase was followed by the retrospective analysis stage in which the research team looked back and tried to give a trustworthy account of the teaching/learning process that had taken place. A questionnaire and focus group discussions were used to collect data from participants that helped to evaluate the programme and its implementation. One of the findings of this study was that academics joining university really need an academic induction programme that inducts them into the discourse of teaching and learning. The study also revealed that existing academics can be placed on formal study programmes in which they acquire educational qualifications with a view to equip them with useful classroom discourses. The study, therefore, concludes that new and existing academics in universities should be supported through induction programmes and placement on formal studies in teaching and learning so that they are capacitated as facilitators of learning.

Keywords: academic staff, pedagogy, programme, staff development

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Authors: Mohsin Sadaqat, Hilal Anwar Butt

Abstract:

Following the stock selection guidelines provided by the Sharia Board (SB), we segregate the firms listed at Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) into Sharia Compliant (SC) and Non-Sharia Compliant (NSC) stocks. Subsequently, we form portfolios within each group based on market capitalization and volatility. The purpose is to analyze and compare the performance of these two groups as the SC stocks have lesser diversification opportunities due to SB restrictions. Using data ranging from January 2004 until June 2016, our results indicate that in most of the cases the risk-adjusted returns (alphas) for the returns differential between SC and NCS firms are positive. In addition, the SC firms in comparison to their counterparts in PSX provides excess returns that are hedged against the market, size, and value-based systematic risks factors. Overall, these results reconcile with one prevailing notion that the SC stocks that have lower financial leverage and higher investment in real assets are lesser exposed to market-based risks. Further, the SC firms that are more capitalized and less volatile, perform better than lower capitalized and higher volatile SC and NSC firms. To sum up our results, we do not find any substantial evidence for opportunity loss due to limited diversification opportunities in case of SC firms. To optimally utilize scarce resources, investors should consider SC firms as a candidate in portfolio construction.

Keywords: diversification, performance, sharia compliant stocks, risk adjusted returns

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Authors: Ayat-Allah Bouramdane

Abstract:

Since 2010, there have been sustained decreases in the unit costs of onshore wind energy and large increases in its deployment, varying widely across regions. In fact, the onshore wind production is affected by air density— because cold air is more dense and therefore more effective at producing wind power— and by wind speed—as wind turbines cannot operate in very low or extreme stormy winds. The wind speed is essentially affected by the surface friction or the roughness and other topographic features of the land, which slow down winds significantly over the continent. Hence, the identification of the most appropriate locations of onshore wind systems is crucial to maximize their energy output and therefore minimize their Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). This study focuses on the preliminary assessment of onshore wind energy potential, in several areas in Morocco with a particular focus on the Dakhla city, by analyzing the diurnal and seasonal variability of wind speed for different hub heights, the frequency distribution of wind speed, the wind rose and the wind performance indicators such as wind power density, capacity factor, and LCOE. In addition to climate criterion, other criteria (i.e., topography, location, environment) were selected fromGeographic Referenced Information (GRI), reflecting different considerations. The impact of each criterion on the suitability map of onshore wind farms was identified using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). We find that the majority of suitable zones are located along the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. We discuss the sensitivity of the onshore wind site suitability to different aspects such as the methodology—by comparing the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM)-AHP results to the Mean-Variance Portfolio optimization framework—and the potential impact of climate change on this suitability map, and provide the final recommendations to the Moroccan energy strategy by analyzing if the actual Morocco's onshore wind installations are located within areas deemed suitable. This analysis may serve as a decision-making framework for cost-effective investment in onshore wind power in Morocco and to shape the future sustainable development of the Dakhla city.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process (ahp), dakhla, geographic referenced information, morocco, multi-criteria decision-making, onshore wind, site suitability.

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Authors: Sandra Rigot, Samira Demaria, Frederic Lemaire

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The starting point of this research is the contemporary capitalist paradox: there is a real scarcity of long term investment despite the boom of potential long term investors. This gap represents a major challenge: there are important needs for long term financing in developed and emerging countries in strategic sectors such as energy, transport infrastructure, information and communication networks. Moreover, the recent financial and sovereign debt crises, which have respectively reduced the ability of financial banking intermediaries and governments to provide long term financing, questions the identity of the actors able to provide long term financing, their methods of financing and the most appropriate forms of intermediation. The issue of long term financing is deemed to be very important by the EU Commission, as it issued a 2013 Green Paper (GP) on long-term financing of the EU economy. Among other topics, the paper discusses the impact of the recent regulatory reforms on long-term investment, both in terms of accounting (in particular fair value) and prudential standards for banks. For banks, prudential and accounting standards are also crucial. Fair value is indeed well adapted to the trading book in a short term view, but this method hardly suits for a medium and long term portfolio. Banks’ ability to finance the economy and long term projects depends on their ability to distribute credit and the way credit is valued (fair value or amortised cost) leads to different banking strategies. Furthermore, in the banking industry, accounting standards are directly connected to the prudential standards, as the regulatory requirements of Basel III use accounting figures with prudential filter to define the needs for capital and to compute regulatory ratios. The objective of these regulatory requirements is to prevent insolvency and financial instability. In the same time, they can represent regulatory constraints to long term investing. The balance between financial stability and the need to stimulate long term financing is a key question raised by the EU GP. Does fair value accounting contributes to short-termism in the investment behaviour? Should prudential rules be “appropriately calibrated” and “progressively implemented” not to prevent banks from providing long-term financing? These issues raised by the EU GP lead us to question to what extent the main regulatory requirements incite or constrain banks to finance long term projects. To that purpose, we study the 292 responses received by the EU Commission during the public consultation. We analyze these contributions focusing on particular questions related to fair value accounting and prudential norms. We conduct a two stage content analysis of the responses. First, we proceed to a qualitative coding to identify arguments of respondents and subsequently we run a quantitative coding in order to conduct statistical analyses. This paper provides a better understanding of the position that a large panel of European stakeholders have on these issues. Moreover, it adds to the debate on fair value accounting and its effects on prudential requirements for banks. This analysis allows us to identify some short term bias in banking regulation.

Keywords: basel 3, fair value, securitization, long term investment, banks, insurers

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Authors: Stefano Frassinelli, Alessandro Niccolai, Riccardo E. Zich

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Diving is an important Olympic sport. In this sport, the effective performance of the athlete is related to his capability to interact correctly with the springboard. In fact, the elevation of the jump and the correctness of the dive are influenced by the vibrations of the board. In this paper, the vibrations of the springboard will be analyzed by means of typical tools for vibration analysis: Firstly, a modal analysis will be done on two different models of the springboard, then, these two model and another one will be analyzed with a time analysis, done integrating the equations of motion od deformable bodies. All these analyses will be compared with experimental data measured on a real springboard by means of a 6-axis accelerometer; these measurements are aimed to assess the models proposed. The acquired data will be analyzed both in frequency domain and in time domain.

Keywords: springboard analysis, modal analysis, time domain analysis, vibrations

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Authors: M. Tassi, E. Dotsika, P. Karalis, A. Trantalidou, A. Mazarakis Ainian

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The Kythnos Island in Greece is of particular archaeological interest, as it has been inhabited from the 12th BC until the 7th AD. From island excavations, numerous faunal and human skeletal remains have been recovered. This work is the first attempt at the paleoenvironmental reconstruction of the island via stable isotope analysis. Specifically, we perform 13C and 18O isotope analysis in faunal bone apatite in order to investigate the climate conditions that prevailed in the area. Additionally, we conduct 13C and 15N isotope analysis in faunal bone collagen, which will constitute the baseline for the subsequent diet reconstruction of the ancient Kythnos population.

Keywords: stable isotopes analysis, bone collagen stable isotope analysis, bone apatite stable isotope analysis, paleodiet, palaeoclimate

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Authors: A. B. Bolkhir, A. Elshafie, T. K. Yousif

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This paper highlights the methods of error estimation in finite element analysis (FEA) results. It indicates that the modeling error could be eliminated by performing finite element analysis with successively finer meshes or by extrapolating response predictions from an orderly sequence of relatively low degree of freedom analysis results. In addition, the paper eliminates the round-off error by running the code at a higher precision. The paper provides application in finite element analysis results. It draws a conclusion based on results of application of methods of error estimation.

Keywords: finite element analysis (FEA), discretization error, round-off error, mesh refinement, richardson extrapolation, monotonic convergence

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Authors: Rajat Kapoor

Abstract:

Indian Real Estate sector is the second largest employer after agriculture and is slated to grow at 30 percent over the next decade. Indian cities have shown tumultuous growth since last two decades. With the growing need of infrastructure, it has become inevitable for real estate sector to adopt more organized and transparent system of investment. SPVs such as REITs ensure transparency facilitating accessibility to invest in real estate for those who find it difficult to purchase real estate as an investment option with a realistic income expectation from their investment. RIETs or real estate investment trusts is an instrument of pooling funds similar to that of mutual funds. In a simpler term REIT is an Investment Vehicle in the form a trust which holds & manages large commercial rent¬ earning properties on behalf of investors and distributes most of its profit as dividends. REIT enables individual investors to invest their money in commercial real estate assets in a diversified portfolio and on the other hand provides fiscal liquidity to developers as easy exit option and channel funds for new projects. However, the success REIT is very much dependent on the taxation structure making such models attractive and adaptive enough for both developers and investors to opt for such investment option. This paper is intended to capture an overview of REITs with context to Indian real estate scenario.

Keywords: Indian real estate, real estate infrastructure trusts, urban finance, infrastructure investment trusts

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Authors: Austyn Snowden

Abstract:

Aim: To examine the construct validity of the Trait Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire Short form. Background: Emotional intelligence involves the identification and regulation of our own emotions and the emotions of others. It is therefore a potentially useful construct in the investigation of recruitment and retention in nursing and many questionnaires have been constructed to measure it. Design: Secondary analysis of existing dataset of responses to TEIQue-SF using concurrent application of Rasch analysis and confirmatory factor analysis. Method: First year undergraduate nursing and computing students completed Trait Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire-Short Form. Responses were analysed by synthesising results of Rasch analysis and confirmatory factor analysis.

Keywords: emotional intelligence, rasch analysis, factor analysis, nurse recruiters

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Authors: Pingping Lin, Xudong Luo

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Natural language often conveys emotions of speakers. Therefore, sentiment analysis on what people say is prevalent in the field of natural language process and has great application value in many practical problems. Thus, to help people understand its application value, in this paper, we survey various applications of sentiment analysis, including the ones in online business and offline business as well as other types of its applications. In particular, we give some application examples in intelligent customer service systems in China. Besides, we compare the applications of sentiment analysis on Twitter, Weibo, Taobao and Facebook, and discuss some challenges. Finally, we point out the challenges faced in the applications of sentiment analysis and the work that is worth being studied in the future.

Keywords: application, natural language processing, online comments, sentiment analysis

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Authors: Plessen Mogens Graf

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Within the context of multivariate time series segmentation, this paper proposes a method inspired by a posteriori optimal trading. After a normalization step, time series are treated channelwise as surrogate stock prices that can be traded optimally a posteriori in a virtual portfolio holding either stock or cash. Linear transaction costs are interpreted as hyperparameters for noise filtering. Trading signals, as well as trading signals obtained on the reversed time series, are used for unsupervised channelwise labeling before a consensus over all channels is reached that determines the final segmentation time instants. The method is model-free such that no model prescriptions for segments are made. Benefits of proposed approach include simplicity, computational efficiency, and adaptability to a wide range of different shapes of time series. Performance is demonstrated on synthetic and real-world data, including a large-scale dataset comprising a multivariate time series of dimension 1000 and length 2709. Proposed method is compared to a popular model-based bottom-up approach fitting piecewise affine models and to a recent model-based top-down approach fitting Gaussian models and found to be consistently faster while producing more intuitive results in the sense of segmenting time series at peaks and valleys.

Keywords: time series segmentation, model-free, trading-inspired, multivariate data

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Authors: Pallavi Roe

Abstract:

Violent crime is a significant public safety concern in urban areas across the United States, and Washington, DC, is no exception. This research discusses the prevalence and types of crime, particularly violent crime, in Washington, DC, along with the factors contributing to the high rate of violent crime in the city, including poverty, inequality, access to guns, and racial disparities. The organizations working towards ensuring safety in neighborhoods are also listed. The proposal to perform spatial and temporal analysis on violent crime and the use of guns in crime analysis is presented to identify patterns and trends to inform evidence-based interventions to reduce violent crime and improve public safety in Washington, DC. The stakeholders for crime analysis are also discussed, including law enforcement agencies, prosecutors, judges, policymakers, and the public. The anticipated result of the spatial and temporal analysis is to provide stakeholders with valuable information to make informed decisions about preventing and responding to violent crimes.

Keywords: crime analysis, spatial analysis, temporal analysis, violent crime

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Authors: Jie Liu, Xudong Luo, Pingping Lin, Yifan Fan

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Facebook, Twitter, Weibo, and other social media and significant e-commerce sites generate a massive amount of online texts, which can be used to analyse people’s opinions or sentiments for better decision-making. So, sentiment analysis, especially fine-grained sentiment analysis, is a very active research topic. In this paper, we survey various methods for fine-grained sentiment analysis, including traditional sentiment lexicon-based methods, machine learning-based methods, and deep learning-based methods in aspect/target/attribute-based sentiment analysis tasks. Besides, we discuss their advantages and problems worthy of careful studies in the future.

Keywords: sentiment analysis, fine-grained, machine learning, deep learning

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Authors: A. B. Robert, Adam Pramadia, Calvin Andika

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The main purpose of this study is to explore consumer loyalty characteristic of mobile phone category in Indonesia. Second, this research attempts to identify consumer segment and to explore their profile in each segment as the basis of marketing strategy formulation. This study used some tools of multivariate analysis such as discriminant analysis and cluster analysis. Discriminate analysis used to discriminate consumer loyal and not loyal by using particular variables. Cluster analysis used to reveal various segment in mobile phone category. In addition to having better customer understanding in each segment, this study used descriptive analysis and cross tab analysis in each segment defined by cluster analysis. This study expected several findings. First, consumer can be divided into two large group of loyal versus not loyal by set of variables. Second, this study identifies customer segment in mobile phone category. Third, exploring customer profile in each segment that has been identified. This study answer a call for additional empirical research into different product categories. Therefore, a replication research is advisable. By knowing the customer loyalty characteristic, and deep analysis of their consumption behavior and profile for each segment, this study is very advisable for high impact marketing strategy development. This study contributes body of knowledge by adding empirical study of consumer loyalty, segmentation analysis in mobile phone category by multiple brand analysis.

Keywords: customer loyalty, segmentation, marketing strategy, discriminant analysis, cluster analysis, mobile phone

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Authors: Du T. Tran, Anh M. N. Nguyen

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Writing skill is one of the productive abilities and plays a vital role in encouraging communication. Although certain hurdles limit students from enhancing their writing skills, the introduction and widespread use of internet technology impact their education significantly. In this context, the research aims to investigate the effects of electronic portfolios (e-portfolios) on English as a foreign language (EFL) high school students’ writing ability, learners’ and instructors’ attitudes towards the use of e-portfolios in writing classes at high schools in Binh Duong province. The sample includes 15 teachers and 300 twelfth graders at 03 high schools in Binh Duong province. Facebook was chosen as an e-portfolio platform where the students created and developed their personal e-portfolios. The data were collected both quantitatively and qualitatively through mixed methods using the tools of a pre-test, a post-test (for students), questionnaires (for both teachers and students), and a semi-structured interview (for teachers in charge of the course). The survey results show that e-portfolios considerably impact EFL high school students writing abilities. The research findings also reveal challenges and technological drawbacks. For the optimal use of e-portfolios in writing courses in particular and for other language courses in general, recommendations are made for school managers, instructors, and learners to optimize the effects and for further research to shed more light on the topic

Keywords: attitudes, electronic portfolios, English writing ability, Vietnamese high school students

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Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

Abstract:

Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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Authors: Chothmal, Basant Agarwal

Abstract:

Sentiment analysis means to classify a given review document into positive or negative polar document. Sentiment analysis research has been increased tremendously in recent times due to its large number of applications in the industry and academia. Sentiment analysis models can be used to determine the opinion of the user towards any entity or product. E-commerce companies can use sentiment analysis model to improve their products on the basis of users’ opinion. In this paper, we propose a new One-class Support Vector Machine (One-class SVM) based sentiment analysis model for movie review documents. In the proposed approach, we initially extract features from one class of documents, and further test the given documents with the one-class SVM model if a given new test document lies in the model or it is an outlier. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed sentiment analysis model.

Keywords: feature selection methods, machine learning, NB, one-class SVM, sentiment analysis, support vector machine

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Authors: Mahdi Karazmodeh, Pooyan Jafari

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One of the most interesting topics in finance is the relation between stock prices and exchange rates. During the past decades different stock markets in different countries have been the subject of study for researches. The volatilities of exchange rates and its effect on stock prices during the past 10 years have continued to be an attractive research topic. The subject of this study is one of the most important indices, FTSE 100. 20 firms with the highest market capitalization in 5 different industries are chosen. Firms are included in oil and gas, mining, pharmaceuticals, banking and food related industries. 5 different criteria have been introduced to evaluate the relationship between stock markets and exchange rates. Return of market portfolio, returns on broad index of Sterling are also introduced. The results state that not all firms are sensitive to changes in exchange rates. Furthermore, a Granger Causality test has been run to observe the route of changes between stock prices and foreign exchange rates. The results are consistent, to some level, with the previous studies. However, since the number of firms is not large, it is suggested that a larger number of firms being used to achieve the best results. However results showed that not all firms are affected by foreign exchange rates changes. After testing Granger Causality, this study found out that in some industries (oil and gas, pharmaceuticals), changes in foreign exchange rate will not cause any changes in stock prices (or vice versa), however, in banking sector the situation was different. This industry showed more reaction to these changes. The results are similar to the ones with Richards and Noel, where a variety of firms in different industries were evaluated.

Keywords: stock prices, foreign exchange rate, exchange rate exposure, Granger Causality

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Authors: Hasan Fatih Ertuğrul, Beytullah Okur, Huseyin Üvet, Kadir Erkan

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The objective of this paper is to analyze a 4-pole hybrid magnetic levitation system by using 3D finite element and analytical methods. The magnetostatic analysis of the system is carried out by using ANSYS MAXWELL-3D package. An analytical model is derived by magnetic equivalent circuit (MEC) method. The purpose of magnetostatic analysis is to determine the characteristics of attractive force and rotational torques by the change of air gap clearances, inclination angles and current excitations. The comparison between 3D finite element analysis and analytical results are presented at the rest of the paper.

Keywords: yoke hybrid electromagnet, 3D finite element analysis, magnetic levitation system, magnetostatic analysis

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Authors: Ju-Young Hwang, Hyo-Gyoung Kwak

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This paper introduces a numerical analysis method for reinforced-concrete (RC) structures exposed to fire and compares the result with experimental results. The proposed analysis method for RC structure under the high temperature consists of two procedures. First step is to decide the temperature distribution across the section through the heat transfer analysis by using the time-temperature curve. After determination of the temperature distribution, the nonlinear analysis is followed. By considering material and geometrical nonlinearity with the temperature distribution, nonlinear analysis predicts the behavior of RC structure under the fire by the exposed time. The proposed method is validated by the comparison with the experimental results. Finally, prediction model to describe the status of after-cooling concrete can also be introduced based on the results of additional experiment. The product of this study is expected to be embedded for smart structure monitoring system against fire in u-City.

Keywords: RC, high temperature, after-cooling analysis, nonlinear analysis

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Authors: Syed Ahzam Tariq, Atharva Modi

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This paper presents a probabilistic analysis of the safety of water tube boilers using fault tree analysis (FTA). A fault tree has been constructed by considering all possible areas where a malfunction could lead to a boiler accident. Boiler accidents are relatively rare, causing a scarcity of data. The fuzzy approach is employed to perform a quantitative analysis, wherein theories of fuzzy logic are employed in conjunction with expert elicitation to calculate failure probabilities. The Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) provides a scientific and contingent method to forecast and prevent accidents.

Keywords: fault tree analysis water tube boiler, fuzzy probability score, failure probability

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Authors: Aditya Sharma

Abstract:

Profits earned from relative strength strategy of zero-cost portfolio i.e. taking long position in winner stocks and short position in loser stocks from recent past are termed as momentum profits. In recent times, there has been lot of controversy and concern about sources of momentum profits, since the existence of these profits acts as an evidence of earning non-normal returns from publicly available information directly contradicting Efficient Market Hypothesis. Literature review reveals conflicting theories and differing evidences on sources of momentum profits. This paper aims at re-examining the sources of momentum profits in Indian capital markets. The study focuses on assessing the effect of fundamental as well as behavioral sources in order to understand the role of investor behavior in stock returns and suggest (if any) improvements to existing behavioral asset pricing models. This Paper adopts calendar time methodology to calculate momentum profits for 6 different strategies with and without skipping a month between ranking and holding period. For each J/K strategy, under this methodology, at the beginning of each month t stocks are ranked on past j month’s average returns and sorted in descending order. Stocks in upper decile are termed winners and bottom decile as losers. After ranking long and short positions are taken in winner and loser stocks respectively and both portfolios are held for next k months, in such manner that at any given point of time we have K overlapping long and short portfolios each, ranked from t-1 month to t-K month. At the end of period, returns of both long and short portfolios are calculated by taking equally weighted average across all months. Long minus short returns (LMS) are momentum profits for each strategy. Post testing for momentum profits, to study the role market risk plays in momentum profits, CAPM and Fama French three factor model adjusted LMS returns are calculated. In the final phase of studying sources, decomposing methodology has been used for breaking up the profits into unconditional means, serial correlations, and cross-serial correlations. This methodology is unbiased, can be used with the decile-based methodology and helps to test the effect of behavioral and fundamental sources altogether. From all the analysis, it was found that momentum profits do exist in Indian capital markets with market risk playing little role in defining them. Also, it was observed that though momentum profits have multiple sources (risk, serial correlations, and cross-serial correlations), cross-serial correlations plays a major role in defining these profits. The study revealed that momentum profits do have multiple sources however, cross-serial correlations i.e. the effect of returns of other stocks play a major role. This means that in addition to studying the investors` reactions to the information of the same firm it is also important to study how they react to the information of other firms. The analysis confirms that investor behavior does play an important role in stock returns and incorporating both the aspects of investors’ reactions in behavioral asset pricing models help make then better.

Keywords: investor behavior, momentum effect, sources of momentum, stock returns

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Authors: E. Loffi Borghese

Abstract:

In this comprehensive study, we delve into the intricate dynamics of the big tech oligopoly, focusing particularly on Apple as a case study. The core objective is to scrutinize the evolving relationship between a firm's commitment to positive social impact as its primary purpose and its resilience in the face of disruptive innovations within the big tech market. Our exploration begins with a theoretical framework, emphasizing the significance of distinguishing between corporate social responsibility and social impact as a primary purpose. Drawing on insights from Drumwright and Bartkus and Glassman, we underscore the transformative potential when a firm aligns its core business with a social mission, transcending mere side activities. Examining successful firms, such as Apple, we adopt Sinek's perspective on inspirational leadership and the "golden circle." This framework sheds light on why some organizations, like Apple, succeed in making positive social impact their primary purpose. Apple's early-stage life cycle is dissected, revealing a profound commitment to challenging the status quo and promoting simpler alternatives that resonate with its users' lives. The study then navigates through industry life cycles, drawing on Klepper's stages and Christensen's disruptive innovations. Apple's dominance in the big tech oligopoly is contrasted with companies like Harley Davidson and Polaroid, illustrating the consequences of failing to adapt to disruptive innovations. The data and methods employed encompass a qualitative approach, leveraging sources like ECB, Forbes, World in Data, and scientific articles. A secondary data analysis probes Apple's market evolution within the big tech oligopoly, emphasizing the shifts in market context and innovation trends that demand strategic adaptations. The subsequent sections scrutinize Apple's present innovation strategies, highlighting its diversified product portfolio and intensified focus on big data. We examine the implications of these shifts on Apple's capacity to maintain positive social impact as its primary purpose, pondering potential consequences on its brand perception. The study culminates in a reflection on the broader implications of the big tech oligopoly's dominance. It contemplates the diminishing competitiveness in the market and the potential sidelining of positive social impact as a competitive advantage. The expansion of tech firms into diverse sectors raises concerns about negative societal impacts, prompting a call for increased regulatory attention and awareness. In conclusion, this research serves as a catalyst for heightened awareness and discussion on the intricate interplay between firms' social impact goals, disruptive innovations, and the broader societal implications within the evolving landscape of the big tech oligopoly. Despite limitations, this study aims to stimulate further research, urging a conscious and responsible approach to shaping the future economic system.

Keywords: innovation trends, market dynamics, social impact, tech oligopoly

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Authors: Guoyu Lin

Abstract:

This paper explores the role investor sentiment plays in the relationship between analyst forecast dispersion and stock returns. With short sale constraints, stock prices are determined by the optimistic investors. During the high sentiment periods when investors suffer more from psychological bias, there are more optimistic investors. This is the first paper to document that following the high sentiment periods, stocks with the most analyst forecast dispersion are overpriced, earning significantly negative returns, while those with the least analyst forecast dispersion are not overpriced as the degree of belief dispersion is low. However, following the low sentiment periods, both are not overpriced. A portfolio which longs the least dispersed stocks and shorts the most dispersed stocks yields significantly positive returns only following the high sentiment periods. My findings can potentially reconcile the puzzling risk effect and mispricing effect in the literature. The risk (mispricing) effect suggests a positive (negative) relation between analyst forecast dispersion and future stock returns. Presumably, the magnitude of the mispricing effect depends on the proportion of irrational investors and their bias, which is positively related to investor sentiment. During the high sentiment period, the mispricing effect takes over and the overall effect is negative. During the low sentiment period, the percentage of irrational investors is mediate, and the mispricing effect and the risk effect counter each other, leading to insignificant relation.

Keywords: analyst forecast dispersion, short-sale constraints, investor sentiment, stock returns

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Authors: Yifu Ding, Vijay Avinash, Malcolm McCulloch

Abstract:

As the proliferation of decentralized energy systems, the UK power system allows small-scale entities such as microgrids (MGs) to tender multiple energy services including energy arbitrage and frequency responses (FRs). However, its operation requires the balance between the uncertain renewable generations and loads in real-time and has to fulfill their provision requirements of contract services continuously during the time window agreed, otherwise it will be penalized for the under-delivered provision. To hedge against risks due to uncertainties and maximize the economic benefits, we propose a stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) framework to optimize its operation for the multi-service provision. Distinguished from previous works, we include a detailed economic-degradation model of the lithium-ion battery to quantify the costs of different service provisions, as well as accurately describe the changing dynamics of the battery. Considering a branch of load and generation scenarios and the battery aging, we formulate a risk-averse cost function using conditional value at risk (CVaR). It aims to achieve the maximum expected net revenue and avoids severe losses. The framework will be performed on a case study of a PV-battery grid-tied microgrid in the UK with real-life data. To highlight its performance, the framework will be compared with the case without the degradation model and the deterministic formulation.

Keywords: model predictive control (MPC), battery degradation, frequency response, microgrids

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Authors: Samaneh Nadali, Masrah Azrifah Azmi Murad, Nurfadhlina Mohammad Sharef

Abstract:

Sarcasm is a common phenomenon in social media which is a nuanced form of language for stating the opposite of what is implied. Due to the intentional ambiguity, analysis of sarcasm is a difficult task not only for a machine but even for a human. Although sarcasm detection has an important effect on sentiment, it is usually ignored in social media analysis because sarcasm analysis is too complicated. While there is a few systems exist which can detect sarcasm, almost no work has been carried out on a study and the review of the existing work in this area. This survey presents a nearly full image of sarcasm detection techniques and the related fields with brief details. The main contributions of this paper include the illustration of the recent trend of research in the sarcasm analysis and we highlight the gaps and propose a new framework that can be explored.

Keywords: sarcasm detection, sentiment analysis, social media, sarcasm analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 421