Search results for: multi-party elections

Authors: Rizwan Rizwan

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Secure Multiparty Computation is an emerging area of research within the cryptographic community, enabling secure collaboration among multiple parties while safeguarding their sensitive data. Secure Multiparty Computation has been extensively studied in the context of plane geometry, its application to complex solid geometry shapes remains relatively unexplored. This research paper aims to bridge this gap by proposing a solution for the secure multiparty computation of intersecting tetrahedra. We present an approach to calculate the volume of intersecting tetrahedra securely while preserving the privacy of the input data provided by each participating party. The proposed solution leverages accepted simulation paradigms to prove the privacy of the computation. We thoroughly analyze the computational and communication complexities of our approach, demonstrating that they closely align with the minimum theoretical complexity for the problems at hand. This optimal nature of our solution ensures efficient and secure collaborative geometric computations.

Keywords: cryptography, secure multiparty computation, solid geometry, protocol, simulation paradigm

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Authors: J. Tochukwu Omenma

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Buzzword in Nigeria is that democracy has “come to stay”. Politicians in their usual euphoria consider democracy as already consolidated in the country. Politicians linked this assumption to three fundamental indicators – (a) multiparty system; (b) regular elections and (c) absence of military coup after 15 years of democracy in Nigeria. Beyond this assumption, we intend to empirically verify these claims and assumptions, by relying on Huntington’s conceptualization of democratic consolidation. Though, Huntington asserts that multipartism, regular elections and absence of any major obstacle leading to reversal of democracy are significant indicators of democratic consolidation, but the presence of those indicators must result to alternation of executive power for democratic consolidation to occur. In other words, regular conduct of election and existence of multiple political parties are not enough for democratic consolidation, rather free and fair elections. Past elections were characterized of massive fraud and irregularities casting doubts on integrity of electoral management body (EMB) to conduct free and fair elections in Nigeria. There are three existing perspectives that have offered responses to the emasculation of independence of EMB. One is a more popular position indicating that the incumbent party, more than the opposition party, influence the EMB activities with the aim of rigging elections; the other is a more radical perspective that suggests that weakening of EMB power is more associated with the weakest party than with the incumbent; and the last, is that godfather(s) are in direct control of EMB members thereby controlling the process of electoral process to the advantage of the godfather(s). With empirical evidence sourced from the reports of independent election monitors, (European Union, Election Observation Mission in Nigeria) this paper shows at different electoral periods that, in terms of influencing election outcomes, the incumbent and godfather have been more associated with influencing election results than the opposition. The existing nature of executive power in Nigeria provides a plausible explanation for the incumbent’s overbearing influence thereby limiting opportunity for free and fair elections and by extension undermining the process of democratic consolidation in Nigeria.

Keywords: political party, democracy, democratic consolidation, election, godfatherism

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Authors: Mary Chidiebere Asoya

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The dominance of two parties in multiparty democracies is a phenomenon that has come to be taken for granted. It has led to deepening corruption and redundant governance in many countries as politicians in the two dominating parties are aware of and exploit the fact that power must rotate between the two parties. As a result, politicians in two dominating parties can hobnob and frequently inter-marry between the two parties in a way that appears to suggest they are running a single dominating party. This paper explores what could end this hegemony by projecting a third party into the limelight. The argument is that long-standing frustration with corruption and increasing revolutionary tendencies could move voters away from the two dominating parties, ending the dominance of the parties. The case study is the February 25, 2023, Presidential elections in Nigeria.

Keywords: democracy, political party, election, nigeria, political science

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Authors: Norbert Tomaszewski

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Modern politicians tend to resign from the traditional media as Web 2.0 tools allow them to interact with a much bigger audience while spending less money on their campaign. Current studies on this subject prove that in order to win the elections, the candidate needs to show his personal side during the campaign to appeal to the voter as an average citizen. Because of that, the internet user may engage in the politician's campaign by spreading his message along with his followers. The aim of the study is to determine how did the Democratic candidates use the Web 2.0 tools during the 2018 midterm elections campaign and whether they managed to succeed. Taking into consideration the fact that the United States as a country, has always set important milestones for the political marketing as a field of science, the result of the research can set some examples on how to manage the modern internet campaign in less developed countries.

Keywords: political campaign, midterm elections, social media, Web 2.0

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Authors: M. Sumana, K. S. Hareesha

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Secure computations are essential while performing privacy preserving data mining. Distributed privacy preserving data mining involve two to more sites that cannot pool in their data to a third party due to the violation of law regarding the individual. Hence in order to model the private data without compromising privacy and information loss, secure multiparty computations are used. Secure computations of product, mean, variance, dot product, sigmoid function using the additive and multiplicative homomorphic property is discussed. The computations are performed on vertically partitioned data with a single site holding the class value.

Keywords: homomorphic property, secure product, secure mean and variance, secure dot product, vertically partitioned data

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Authors: Yogita M. Ahire, Nedal M. Mohammed, Ahmed A. Hamoud

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Scientific computation outsourcing is gaining popularity because it allows customers with limited computing resources and storage devices to outsource complex computation workloads to more powerful service providers. However, it raises some security and privacy concerns and challenges, such as customer input and output privacy, as well as cloud cheating behaviors. This study was motivated by these concerns and focused on privacy-preserving Two-Point Boundary Value Problems (BVP) as a common and realistic instance for verifiable safe multiparty computing. We'll look at the safe and verifiable schema with correctness guarantees by utilizing standard multiparty approaches to compute the result of a computation and then solely using verifiable ways to check that the result was right.

Keywords: verifiable computing, cloud computing, secure and privacy BVP, secure computation outsourcing

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Authors: Md. Awal Hossain Mollah

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the relation between the free, fair and credible election in ensuring democratic governance in Bangladesh. The paper is a case (Bangladesh) study and qualitative in nature and based on secondary sources of materials. For doing this study, conceptual clarification has been done first and identified few elements of free, fair and credible elections. Then, how far these elements have been ensured in Bangladeshi elections has been evaluated by analyzing all the national elections held since independence. Apart from these, major factors and challenges of holding a free, fair and credible election in Bangladesh have been examined through using the following research questions: 1. Does role of election commission matter for free, fair and credible elections to form a democratic government? 2. Does role of political parties matter for democratic governance? 3. Do role of government matter for conducting the free, fair and credible election in ensuring democratic governance? 4. Does non-party caretaker government matter for conducting a free, fair and credible election? 5. Does democratic governance depend on multi-dimensional factors and actors? Major findings of this study are: Since the independence of Bangladesh, 10 national elections held in various regimes. 4 out of 10 national elections have been found free, fair and credible which have been conducted by the non-party caretaker government. Rests of the elections are not out of controversy and full of manipulation held under elected government. However, the caretaker government has already been abolished by the AL government through 15th amendment of the constitution. The present AL government is elected by the 10th parliamentary election under incumbent (AL) government, but a major opposition allies (20 parties) lead by BNP boycotted this election and 154 of the total 300 seats being uncontested. As a result, AL again came to the power without a competitive election and most of the national and International election observers including media world consider this election as unfair and the government is suffering from lack of legitimacy. Therefore, the governance of present Bangladesh is not democratic at all and it is to be considered as one party (14 parties’ allies lead by AL) authoritarian governance in the shade of parliamentary governance. Both the position and opposition of the parliament is belonging in 14 parties’ alliances lead by AL.

Keywords: democracy, governance, free, fair and credible elections, Bangladesh

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Authors: Pranav Gunhal

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This paper presents an analysis of sentiment on Twitter towards the Karnataka elections held in 2023, utilizing transformer-based models specifically designed for sentiment analysis in Indic languages. Through an innovative data collection approach involving a combination of novel methods of data augmentation, online data preceding the election was analyzed. The study focuses on sentiment classification, effectively distinguishing between positive, negative, and neutral posts while specifically targeting the sentiment regarding the loss of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or the win of the Indian National Congress (INC). Leveraging high-performing transformer architectures, specifically IndicBERT, coupled with specifically fine-tuned hyperparameters, the AI models employed in this study achieved remarkable accuracy in predicting the INC’s victory in the election. The findings shed new light on the potential of cutting-edge transformer-based models in capturing and analyzing sentiment dynamics within the Indian political landscape. The implications of this research are far-reaching, providing invaluable insights to political parties for informed decision-making and strategic planning in preparation for the forthcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections in the nation.

Keywords: sentiment analysis, twitter, Karnataka elections, congress, BJP, transformers, Indic languages, AI, novel architectures, IndicBERT, lok sabha elections

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Authors: Abdullahi Garba Abu, Muhammad Bello Sada, Aminu Abubakar

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Facebook and Twitter/X platforms are preferred and largely patronized by Youths in Nigeria. The simplicity and popularity of Facebook and Twitter/X have made them preferred social networking sites for Youths to handle or execute different political activities in favor of their chosen candidates or political parties. This is largely related to their interest in using the platform for the purposes of participation in 2023 political activities and general elections. The two Social Networking Sites were used to vigorously pursue party activities on the eve of the 2023 general elections. Youths engaged the two platforms in campaigning for their candidates and political parties and succeeded in reaching a wide audience, shared the policies and manifestos of their parties, engaged with supporters and even posted advertising campaigns for specific demographics. However, the utilization of Facebook and Twitter /X platforms during the 2023 elections was largely seen in two lights: positive and negative lights/intentions. Therefore, this research investigates the motivating factors for which largely Nigerian Youths engage Facebook and Twitter platforms in political activities, with reference to the 2023 general elections. The research uses a survey method through which it reaches out to respondents from all six geo-politial zones. The research found that Nigerian Youths utilize the two social media sites to campaign for politicians voluntarily based on their belief in the capabilities of the candidates. It also found out that Youths were lured into using Facebook and Twitter/X sites to campaign through tribal, religious, and ethnic factors. More so, the research found out that eagerness to share political materials in support of candidates made Youths in Nigeria share unverifiable content on Facebook and Twitter sites.

Keywords: Facebook, Twitter/X, Nigerian youths, 2023 elections

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Authors: Isaac Kofi Mensah

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The manual system of voting has been the most widely used system of electing representatives around the globe, particularly in Africa. Due to the known numerous problems and challenges associated with the manual system of voting, many countries are migrating to the electronic voting system as a suitable and credible means of electing representatives over the manual paper-based system. This research paper therefore investigated the factors influencing adoption and use of an electronic voting system in Ghana. A total of 400 Questionnaire Instruments (QI) were administered to potential respondents in Ghana, of which 387 responded representing a response rate of 96.75%. The Technology Acceptance Model was used as the theoretical framework for the study. The research model was tested using a simple linear regression analysis with SPSS. A little of over 71.1% of the respondents recommended the Electoral Commission (EC) of Ghana to adopt an electronic voting system in the conduct of public elections in Ghana. The results indicated that all the six predictors such as perceived usefulness (PU), perceived ease of use (PEOU), perceived free and fair elections (PFFF), perceived credible elections (PCE), perceived system integrity (PSI) and citizens trust in the election management body (CTEM) were all positively significant in predicting the readiness of citizens to adopt and use an electronic voting system in Ghana. However, jointly, the hypotheses tested revealed that apart from Perceived Free and Fair Elections and Perceived Credible and Transparent Elections, all the other factors such as PU, Perceived System Integrity and Security and Citizen Trust in the Election Management Body were found to be significant predictors of the Willingness of Ghanaians to use an electronic voting system. All the six factors considered in this study jointly account for about 53.1% of the reasons determining the readiness to adopt and use an electronic voting system in Ghana. The implications of this research finding on elections in Ghana are discussed.

Keywords: credible elections, Election Management Body (EMB), electronic voting, Ghana, Technology Acceptance Model (TAM)

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Authors: Olajumoke Tolulope Esan, Odunayo Stephen Faluse

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Nigeria’s electoral politics from independence has been tumultuous. Violence has continued to damage the conduct of almost all general elections in Nigeria, Thereby making free and fair elections an event that seems to be unachievable in the history of the nation’s politics. Apparently, electoral violence has subjected the Nation into stereotyped electoral procedures that are always dictated through powerful political Godfathers. However, the shameful act of riotous and tumultuous election processes has led to a political, national instability festering irregularities that manifest at different stages of the election, thus subjecting almost all elections carried out in Nigeria below the minimum democracy standard. Hence the fact that an average Nigerian is being deprived of his or her individual electoral rights should be enough to attract Global political interventions from the western world as Nigeria is part of the commonwealth countries and every Nigerians have the right to demand for posterity to be ensured by protecting individual rightful votes. Basically for elections to be termed democratic, it must be free and fair. In view of this, A deep understanding of this paper is a reflection on the tides of electoral violence and the alarming precipitating factors that make free and fair election almost unreachable in Nigeria.

Keywords: democracy, election, electoral violence, political violence

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Authors: Isaac Kofi Mensah

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The adoption and application of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) in government administration through e-government is expected to permeate all sectors of state/ public institutions as well as democratic institutions. One of such public institutions is the Electoral Commission of Ghana mandated by the 1992 Constitution to hold all public elections including presidential and parliamentary elections. As Ghana holds its 7th General Elections since 1992, on 7th November 2016, there are demands from key stakeholders for the Election Management Body, which is the Electoral Commission (EC) of Ghana to adopt and implement an electronic voting system. This case study, therefore, attempts to contribute significantly to the debate by examining influencing factors that would impact on citizen’s readiness to adopt and use an electronic voting system in Ghana. The Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) was used as a theoretical framework for this study, out of which a research model and hypotheses were developed. Importantly, the outcome of this research finding would form a basis for appropriate policy recommendation for consideration of Government and EC of Ghana.

Keywords: citizens readiness, e-government, electronic voting, technology acceptance model (TAM)

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Authors: Grace Anweh, Patience Achakpa-ikyo

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The issue of women unfavourable representation in the mass media is long standing. While it is a worldwide problem, developing countries in Africa especially Nigeria are considered peculiar. This paper, ‘mass media representation and the status of women in the 2015, general elections in Nigeria’ therefore aimed to assess the current trend of role playing in the mass media and how this has affected general status of women in Nigeria politics with particular reference to the 2015 general elections. The study employed a review of secondary literature and data regarding previous performances of Nigeria women in politics from 1999 to 2015 and the picture that has been paid by Nigerian mass media about women. Anchoring the paper on the agenda setting theory of the mass media, the paper analysed secondary literature and discovered that from 1999 to date, women have been participating in politics but rather than improve their status in elective offices, the percentage of women for such offices is rather declining. This trend the paper concluded is attributed to the way and manner women are represented in the mass media - as not good for policy making offices except as kitchen and home managers. The paper therefore recommends that, the country should adopt the quota allocation for all the political parties in order to give women a chance to compete with their male counterparts. While women should strive towards the managerial and ownership of media houses in order to represent the interest of women in politics thus offering the opportunity for the favourable representation of women and role models for those who may want to tour a similar part.

Keywords: mass media, media representation, Nigeria elections, women

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Authors: Mariam Arif

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The objective of the current study is to find out the electoral violence against women and its implications on their political participation. This paper is a qualitative study to get an in-depth analysis of the phenomenon. This study used questionnaires and interviews for findings. This paper attempts to study electoral violence and women in politics in Pakistan. The study concluded that women are subjected to different categories of violence defined as physical violence that involves sexual and bodily harm to a politically active woman or to people associated with her. Social and psychological violence includes class difference, stress, social limitations, family pressure and character assassination. Economic violence is defined as a systematic restriction of access to economic resources available to women thus hinder women active participation in politics (elections). All these violence against women in elections are threat to the integrity of the electoral process of the country that eventually affects women’s participation as voters, party candidates, election officials and political party leaders. It also undermines the free and fair democratic process. This qualitative paper shows a significant negative relationship between electoral violence and women participation in politics.

Keywords: elections, politics, violence, women

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Authors: Muhammed Jamiu Mustapha, Jamiu Folarin, Stephen Obiri Agyei, Rasheed Ademola Adebiyi, Mutiu Iyanda Lasisi

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The role of the media in political discourse cannot be overemphasized as they form an important part of societal development. The media institution is considered the fourth estate of the realm because it serves as a check and balance to the arms of government (Executive, Legislature and Judiciary) especially in a democratic setup, and makes public office holders accountable to the people. They scrutinize the political candidates and conduct a holistic analysis of the achievement of the government in order to make the people’s representative accountable to the electorates. The media in Nigeria play a seminal role in shaping how people vote during elections. Newspaper headlines are catchy phrases that easily capture the attention of the audience and call them (audience) to action. Research conducted on newspaper headlines looks at the linguistic aspect and how the tenses used has a resultant effect on peoples’ attitude and behaviour. Communication scholars have also conducted studies that interrogate whether newspaper headlines influence peoples' voting patterns and decisions. Propaganda and negative stories about political opponents are stapling features in electioneering campaigns. Nigerian newspaper readers have the characteristic of scanning newspaper headlines. And the question is whether politicians effectively have played into this tendency to brand opponents negatively, based on half-truths and inadequate information. This study illustrates major trends in the Nigerian political landscape looking at the past four presidential elections and frames the progress of the research in the extant body of political propaganda research in Africa. The study will use the quantitative content analysis of newspaper headlines from 2007 to 2019 to be able to ascertain whether newspaper headlines had any effect on the election results of the presidential elections during these years. This will be supplemented by Key Informant Interviews of political scientists or experts to draw further inferences from the quantitative data. Drawing on newspaper headlines of selected newspapers in Nigeria that have a political propaganda angle for the presidential elections, the analysis will correspond to and complements extant descriptions of how the field of political propaganda has been developed in Nigeria, providing evidence of four presidential elections that have shaped Nigerian politics. Understanding the development of the behavioural change of the electorates provide useful context for trend analysis in political propaganda communication. The findings will contribute to how newspaper headlines are used partly or wholly to decide the outcome of presidential elections in Nigeria.

Keywords: newspaper headlines, political propaganda, presidential elections, trend analysis

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Authors: Yasemin Gülşen Yılmaz, Süleyman Hakan Yılmaz, Muhammet Erbay

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Social media is among the most important means of communication. Social media offers individuals and groups with an opportunity for participatory socialization over the internet, which is free of any time and place restrictions. Social media is a kind of interactive communication and bilateral social network. Various communication contents can be shared and put into mass circulation easily and quickly through social media. These sharings are not only limited to individuals but also happen to groups, institutions, and different constitutions. Their contents consist of any type of written message, audio and video files. We are living in the social media era now. It is not surprising that social media which has extensive communication facilities and massive prevalence is used in politics. Therefore, the use of social media (Facebook) by political parties during the Turkish general elections held on June 7, 2015, has been chosen as our research subject. Four parties namely, AKP, CHP, MHP and HDP who have the majority of votes in Turkey and participate in elections in Konya have been selected for our study. Their provincial centers’ and parliamentary candidates` use of social media (Facebook) on the last three days prior to the election have been examined and subjected to a qualitative analysis by means of content analysis.

Keywords: social media, June 7 general elections, politics, Facebook

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Authors: Paula-Catalina Meirosu

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The economic migration (intra-EU) is a topic of debate in the public space in both countries of origin and countries of destination. Since the 1990s, after the collapse of communist regimes and then the accession of some former communist countries to the EU, the migratory flows of migrants (including Romanian migrants) to EU countries has been increased constantly. Italy is one of the main countries of destination among Romanians since at the moment Italy hosts more than one million Romanian migrants. Based on an interdisciplinary analytical framework focused on the theories in the field of transnationalism, media and migration studies and critical media analysis, this paper investigates the media construction of intra-EU economic migration in the Italian press from two main perspectives. The first point of view is the media representation of Romanian migrants in the Italian press in a specific context: the EU elections in 2014. The second one explores the way in which Romanian journalists use the media in the destinations countries (such as Italy) as a source to address the issue of migration. In this context, the paper focuses on online articles related to the Romanian migrants’ representation in the media before and during the EU elections in two newspapers (La Repubblica from Italy and Adevarul from Romania), published during January-May 2014. The methodology is based on a social-constructivist approach, predominantly discursive and includes elements of critical discourse analysis (CDA) to identify the patterns of Romanian migrants in the Italian press as well as strategies for building categories, identities, and roles of migrants. The aim of such an approach is to find out the dynamic of the media discourse on migration from a destination country in the light of a European electoral context (EU elections) and based on the results, to propose scenarios for the elections to be held this year.

Keywords: migration, media discourse, Romanian migrants, transnationalism

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Authors: Chew Zhao Hong

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Since the transition of power in 2018, the Malaysian political landscape has experienced substantial shifts and complexities. The decline of the longstanding ruling party, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), following the party rotation, has given rise to splinter parties such as the Indigenous Unity Party (Bersatu), along with the enduring presence of the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) in the northern region of the Malay Peninsula. However, the "Sheraton Move" in 2020 led to the fall of the Pakatan Harapan government and the emergence of Perikatan Nasional, signifying the ascent of a third political force. The 2022 general elections marked Malaysia's entry into a hung parliament, culminating in an intricate negotiation that resulted in a coalition government formed by Pakatan Harapan, Barisan Nasional, and the Sarawak parties alliance (GPS), collectively governing the Malaysian federal administration. During the 2023 state elections, Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional formed an unprecedented alliance, yet the media framing benefited Perikatan Nasional, even securing substantial support from UMNO's traditional constituencies. In the era of converging new media, Malaysia’s democratization faces new challenges: first, political leaders leveraging media to cultivate unfiltered personas risk inducing populism; second, under the influence of agenda-setting and two-step flow theories, media contributes to polarization; lastly, Malaysia's multi-party system is no longer effectively moderate extreme ideologies into the political center. This study examines the role of media framing and its impact on the democratization process within Malaysia's consociational democracy under a multi-party system and analyzes media discourse before and after the 2023 Malaysian state elections to explore how different parties shape public opinion and political discourse, and how political messages may be amplified or distorted in the process.

Keywords: multi-party system, democratization, elections, political polarization, Malaysia, media framing

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Authors: Talib Jan Abasindhi

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Democracy has reached almost every nuke & corner of the globe. It is well embedded in the political systems found in the majority of the countries in the world. Political parties, their manifestos, and programs are educating their people for better democracy and good governance, as well as service delivery in many countries around the globe. Although democracy in Pakistan by itself is in its infancy stage, yet, there is a region consisting of three districts (administrative units) lying in the North of the country where democracy is yet unknown to a wide range of population bounded into a series of mountains from Himalayan and Karakuram ranges. Political parties are struggling now to get their roots in the area while disrupting the traditional and tribal electoral system prevailing in the region. This paper will shed light on an interesting subject of casting lots for nomination as candidatures for general and local bodies’ elections in Kohistani region in Pakistan. The people of wisdom and knowledge in the modern world deem such societies as uncivilized where these practices are found. No one can believe it in today’s world, yet, this practice has been common in Kohistani region over the past many decades, and there have been many reasons for this too. Through this paper, we shall not only make others aware of the process and procedure practiced in casting the lots in elections in democratic Pakistan, but rather we shall also talk about its very basic reasons and suggestions as a solution for this menace to be eliminated.

Keywords: democracy, casting lots, governance, Kohistani region

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Authors: Fatima-Zohra Ghedir

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Social media platforms have been actively working on solutions and combined their efforts with media, policy makers, educators and researchers to protect citizens and prevent interferences in information, political discourses and elections. Facebook, for instance, deleted fake accounts, implemented fake accounts and fake content detection algorithms, partnered with news agencies to manually fact check content and changed its newsfeeds display. Twitter and Instagram regularly communicate on their efforts and notify their users of improvements and safety guidelines. More funds have been allocated to media literacy programs to empower citizens in prevision of the coming elections. This paper investigates the efficiency of these initiatives and analyzes the metrics to measure their success or failure. The objective is also to determine the segments of population more prone to fall in disinformation traps during the elections despite the measures taken over the last four years. This study will also examine the groups who were positively impacted by these measures. This paper relies on both desk and field methodologies. For this study, a survey was administered to French students aged between 17 and 29 years old. Semi-guided interviews were conducted on a similar audience. The analysis of the survey and of the interviews show that respondents were exposed to the initiatives described above and are aware of the existence of disinformation issues. However, they do not understand what disinformation really entails or means. For instance, for most of them, disinformation is synonymous of the opposite point of view without taking into account the truthfulness of the content. Besides, they still consume and believe the information shared by their friends and family, with little questioning about the ways their closed ones get informed.

Keywords: democratic elections, disinformation, foreign interference, social media, success metrics

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Authors: Kazuma Mizukoshi

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Are electoral politics in contemporary Brazil still local in organization and focus? The importance of this question lies in its paradoxical trajectories. First, often coupled with institutional and sociological ‘barriers’ (e.g. the selection and election of candidates relatively loyal to the local party leadership, the predominance of territorialized electoral campaigns, and the resilience of political clientelism), the regionalization of electoral politics has been a viable and practical solution especially for pragmatic politicians in some Latin American countries. On the other hand, some leftist parties that once served as minor opposition forces at the time of foundational or initial elections have certainly expanded vote shares. Some were eventually capable of holding most (if not a majority) legislative seats since the 1990s. Though not yet rigorously demonstrated, theoretically implicit in the rise of leftist parties in legislative elections is the gradual (if not complete) nationalization of electoral support—meaning the growing equality of a party’s vote share across electoral districts and its change over time. This study will develop four hypotheses to explain the dynamics of party nationalization in contemporary Brazil: district magnitude, ethnic and class fractionalization of each district, voting intentions in federal and state executive elections, and finally the left-right stances of electorates. The study will demonstrate these hypotheses by closely working with the Brazilian Electoral Study (2002-2014).

Keywords: party nationalization, presidential coattails, Left, Brazil

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Authors: Volker Mittendorf, Andre Schmale

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In this case study, we want to explore the Twitter-use of candidates during the state parliamentary elections-year 2018 in Bavaria, Germany. This paper focusses on the seven parties that probably entered the parliament. Against this background, the paper classifies the use of language as populism which itself is considered as a political communication style. First, we determine the election campaigns which started in the years 2017 on Twitter, after that we categorize the posting times of the different direct candidates in order to derive ideal types from our empirical data. Second, we have done the exploration based on the dictionary of concerned citizens which contains German political language of the right and the far right. According to that, we are analyzing the corpus with methods of text mining and social network analysis, and afterwards we display the results in a network of words of concerned citizen communication style (CCCS).

Keywords: populism, communication style, election, text mining, social media

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Authors: Sergio V Davalos, Alison L. Watkins

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User generated content (UGC) such as website post has data associated with it: time of the post, gender, location, type of device, and number of words. The text entered in user generated content (UGC) can provide a valuable dimension for analysis. In this research, each user post is treated as a collection of terms (words). In addition to the number of words per post, the frequency of each term is determined by post and by the sum of occurrences in all posts. This research focuses on one specific aspect of UGC: sentiment. Sentiment analysis (SA) was applied to the content (user posts) of two sets of political forums related to the US presidential elections for 2012 and 2016. Sentiment analysis results in deriving data from the text. This enables the subsequent application of data analytic methods. The SASA (SAIL/SAI Sentiment Analyzer) model was used for sentiment analysis. The application of SASA resulted with a sentiment score for each post. Based on the sentiment scores for the posts there are significant differences between the content and sentiment of the two sets for the 2012 and 2016 presidential election forums. In the 2012 forums, 38% of the forums started with positive sentiment and 16% with negative sentiment. In the 2016 forums, 29% started with positive sentiment and 15% with negative sentiment. There also were changes in sentiment over time. For both elections as the election got closer, the cumulative sentiment score became negative. The candidate who won each election was in the more posts than the losing candidates. In the case of Trump, there were more negative posts than Clinton’s highest number of posts which were positive. KNIME topic modeling was used to derive topics from the posts. There were also changes in topics and keyword emphasis over time. Initially, the political parties were the most referenced and as the election got closer the emphasis changed to the candidates. The performance of the SASA method proved to predict sentiment better than four other methods in Sentibench. The research resulted in deriving sentiment data from text. In combination with other data, the sentiment data provided insight and discovery about user sentiment in the US presidential elections for 2012 and 2016.

Keywords: sentiment analysis, text mining, user generated content, US presidential elections

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Authors: Rai Mansoor Imtiaz

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Guardians in hybrid regimes fragment opposition parties and ban their political leaders, and disenfranchise their voters' political participation. When guardians in hybrid regimes are so powerful that they remain decisive on electoral politics of states, and have powers to ban political parties and their leadership, then "why do political parties backed by those powerful guardians lose elections" and "how do anti-establishment parties make electoral inroads at the local and national levels." These two questions are interrelated with the key research question of my research "why do people vote for political parties rejected by powerful guardians in establishmentarian democracies." Furthermore, this research question is important to be explored for two reasons. First, existing literature only reflects the electoral victories of opposition parties or defeats of military-sponsored parties (see Thailand and Turkey) but remains silent on political change that led the anti-military parties to win the elections. Second, why is it a case that people belonging to the countries where militaries remain popular among the public (see Turkey and Pakistan) have started putting their trust in anti-establishment politicians who criticise the military against their intervention in politics? For instance, in Pakistan, where commenting against the military is meant to comment against the state –– an anti-military narrative is getting popular support. The conceptual framework of hybrid states in this research relies on the concept of a 'reserved domain/tutelary body' (guardians of hybrid states). However, this research makes a case that hybrid states are not consolidated separate political entities but rather vacillated states that fluctuate between democratic and authoritarian practices. This paper, therefore, uses the term establishmentarian democracy as a subtype of the hybrid regime, which is more consolidated than a hybrid democracy.

Keywords: Guardians, Hybrid Regimes, Voters, Elections, Democracy, South Asia

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Authors: Shola H. Adeosun, Lekan M. Togunwa, Kolawole Z. Amos

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This paper appraises ‘Newspaper Coverage of 2015 General Election: A study of The Punch and Guardian Newspapers’. The objectives of the study were to examine how credible newspaper reports of 2015 election were and to examine the significant role Nigeria Newspapers played in the 2015 general elections. Also this study examined the extent at which the print media contributed to the success of 2015 general election and to ascertain the extent at which print media reports serve as a tool for sensitizing the masses. The research questions that guided this research include: How credible was newspaper report of 2015 general election? To what extent did the print media contributed to the success of 2015 general elections? To what extent did the print media reports serve as a tool for sensitizing the masses? The research work was given solid theoretical foundation with the review of Agenda-setting theory, Media System Dependency Theory and Normative theories. This study was given solid theoretical foundation with the review of Agenda-setting theory, Media Dependency Theory and Normative theories. The theory was conducted using content analysis method of research and 30 publications of both The Guardian and Punch Newspaper between January 1st and March 30, 2015 forms the population for this research work. Selection of the dates and editions of Newspaper under study were done using the composite week sampling technique. All the days of the week were used for the newspapers because they (The Punch and The Guardian) are published all the days of the week. Coding sheet was the tool of data collection for the content analysis of this study. Findings of the study revealed that by the Punch newspaper and Guardian has played a significant role in eradicating election malpractices in Nigeria. It therefore concludes that media is metaphoric when we termed it to be a watchdog of the nation as well the mirror through which the nation see and recognize itself. The study also recommends that Nigerian media should strike balance between entertainment stories, crisis stories, economic stories, law story, education stories, terrorism stories, health stories, sport stories, metropolitan stories instead of portraying the country as being crime oriented.

Keywords: newspaper, coverage, general elections, impact

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Authors: H. Shola Adeosun, D. Adeoye Odedeji, F. Ajoke Adebiyi

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This study examines the impact of media on the electoral process in Nigeria and the roles played by the media in the reform process. Survey research method was adopted as research methodology, and this enables the researcher to use questionnaire, and oral interview to elicit primary data from the respondents was interpreted, analysed and interpreted with statistical tools such as tables, figures, and percentages. The hypothesis formulated were tested with chi-square. The findings revealed that there is significant relationship between the media and electoral reform process in the 2011 and 2015 general elections in Nigeria. The study recommends that electoral committee should implement virile electoral system with the peaceful voting environment. The media should intensify efforts to expose violation of electoral laws; media should play an advocacy role for dialogue and debate on the reform recommendations. The study recommends that media should unite the nation through their reports on peace, national security, national integration and ethnoreligious tolerance and that adequate training should be given to media practitioners on how to report issues relating to elections.

Keywords: evaluation, impact, media, electoral reform process

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Authors: Paiboon Chuwatthanakij

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Each of the countries around the world has different ways of management and many of them depend on people to administrate their country. Thailand, for example, empowers the sovereignty of Thai people under constitution; however, our Thai voting system is not able to flow fast enough under the current Political management system. The sovereignty of Thai people is addressing this problem through representatives during current elections, in order to set a new policy for the countries ideology to change in the House and the Cabinet. This is particularly important in a democracy to be developed under our current political institution. The Organic Act on Political Parties 2007 is the establishment we have today that is causing confrontations within the establishment. There are many political parties that will soon be abolished. Many political parties have already been subsidized. This research study is to analyze the legal problems with the political party establishment under the Organic Act on Political Parties 2007. This will focus on the freedom of each political establishment compared to an effective political operation. Textbooks and academic papers will be referenced from studies home and abroad. The study revealed that Organic Act on Political Parties 2007 has strict provisions on the political structure over the number of members and the number of branches involved within political parties system. Such operations shall be completed within one year; but under the existing laws the small parties are not able to participate with the bigger parties. The cities are capable of fulfilling small political party requirements but fail to become coalesced because the current laws won't allow them to be united as one. It is important to allow all independent political parties to join our current political structure. Board members can’t help the smaller parties to become a large organization under the existing Thai laws. Creating a new establishment that functions efficiently throughout all branches would be one solution to these legal problems between all political parties. With this new operation, individual political parties can participate with the bigger parties during elections. Until current political institutions change their system to accommodate public opinion, these current Thai laws will continue to be a problem with all political parties in Thailand.

Keywords: coalesced, political party, sovereignty, elections

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Authors: Andrea N. Alarcon, Julian D. Castro, Gloria C. Rojas, Paola A. Vaca, Santiago Ortiz, Gustavo Martinez, Pablo D. Lemoine

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Recently, electoral results across many countries have shown to be inconsistent with rational decision theory, which states that individuals make decisions based on maximizing benefits and reducing risks. An alternative explanation has emerged: Fear and rage-driven vote have been proved to be highly effective for political persuasion and mobilization. This phenomenon has been evident in the 2016 elections in the United States, 2006 elections in Mexico, 1998 elections in Venezuela, and 2004 elections in Bolivia. In Colombia, it has occurred recently in the 2016 plebiscite for peace and 2018 presidential elections. The aim of this study is to explain this phenomenon using cultural cognition theory, referring to the psychological predisposition individuals have to believe that its own and its peer´s behavior is correct and, therefore, beneficial to the entire society. Cultural cognition refers to the tendency of individuals to fit perceived risks, and factual beliefs into group shared values; the Cultural Cognition Worldview Scales (CCWS) measures cultural perceptions through two different dimensions: Individualism-communitarianism and hierarchy-egalitarianism. The former refers to attitudes towards social dominance based on conspicuous and static characteristics (sex, ethnicity or social class), while the latter refers to attitudes towards a social ordering in which it is expected from individuals to guarantee their own wellbeing without society´s or government´s intervention. A probabilistic national sample was obtained from different polls from the consulting and public opinion company Centro Nacional de Consultoría. Sociodemographic data was obtained along with CCWS scores, a subjective measure of left-right ideological placement and vote intention for 2019 Mayor´s elections were also included in the questionnaires. Finally, the question “In your opinion, what is the greatest risk Colombia is facing right now?” was included to identify perceived risk in the population. Preliminary results show that Colombians are highly distributed among hierarchical communitarians and egalitarian individualists (30.9% and 31.7%, respectively), and to a less extent among hierarchical individualists and egalitarian communitarians (19% and 18.4%, respectively). Males tended to be more hierarchical (p < .000) and communitarian (p=.009) than females. ANOVA´s revealed statistically significant differences between groups (quadrants) for the level of schooling, left-right ideological orientation, and stratum (p < .000 for all), and proportion differences revealed statistically significant differences for groups of age (p < .001). Differences and distributions for vote intention and perceived risks are still being processed and results are yet to be analyzed. Results show that Colombians are differentially distributed among quadrants in regard to sociodemographic data and left-right ideological orientation. These preliminary results indicate that this study may shed some light on why Colombians vote the way they do, and future qualitative data will show the fears emerging from the identified values in the CCWS and the relation this has with vote intention.

Keywords: communitarianism, cultural cognition, egalitarianism, hierarchy, individualism, perceived risks

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Authors: Karen Lesley Webster, Charles Crothers

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As the population of the Auckland region in New Zealand becomes markedly more super-diverse, the question of fair and effective representation becomes increasingly relevant. This paper explores who stood and who was elected to local office, in the three Auckland triennial local elections, following the 2010 amalgamation of the regions local authorities. It addresses the question of how representative the electoral candidates and elected members of local government in Auckland were of the diverse population they serve. A quantitative analysis of the gender and ethnicity of the Auckland Council candidates and elected members in 2013, 2016, and 2019 triennial elections was undertaken, and the gender and ethnicity compared with that of the Auckland population. Our findings show that under the two-tiered shared governance model established by the Local Government Act (Auckland Council) 2009, electoral candidates have become more ethnically and gender representative of Aucklanders at the local level, while at the regional level, divergence from predominantly New Zealand European, male local representatives is emerging, albeit with less pace. These findings warrant further investigation, but overall, the research presents a cautiously optimistic picture of Auckland local democracy in terms of increasing representational diversity.

Keywords: local government, representation, diversity, gender, ethnicity

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Authors: F. Agbele

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Elections are core democratic institutions. Consequently, voter participation during elections is paramount to democratic governance as it serves as a medium to legitimize authority and make the privileges of electoral democracy meaningful to citizens. To this effect, the topic of voter mobilization and subsequent turnout level have been largely studied in advanced democracies. In young and consolidating democracies, the debate has, however, revolves around the huge reliance on ethnic and regional appeals. According to the Author’s knowledge, studies on electoral mobilization especially within the African context have argued the use of ethnic linkages by political parties to mobilize voters during elections. Literature has however not differentiated between the level of democratic dispensation among African countries and the use of ethnic linkages. The question, however, is whether the state of the country’s democracy determines the strategies employed by political parties to induce voter participation. In other words, do parties simply play ethno-regional cards as strongly suggested by literature or will consider an arrayed of strategies to mobilize voters? Additionally, studies have not differentiated the impact of mobilization strategy within a country, i.e. between high to low turnout areas. They have also not distinguished between strategies employed by an incumbent or an opposition party. This paper, therefore, is a comparative analysis of voter mobilization in Ghana. It uses original survey and interview data from three constituencies in Ghana: Nanton, Assin North, and Ellembelle, which are typical cases of high, average and low turnout areas, respectively. The data were concurrently collected during fieldworks conducted in November 2016 to February 2017, and again from July to August 2017. The study found that political parties within a consolidating democracy employ a blend of strategies to ensure turnout by both parties’ faithful and swing voters. The dominant strategies used depends on whether the party is an incumbent or in opposition. While an incumbent may depend more on personalistic and clientelistic strategies, parties in opposition will largely use programmatic strategies, which entails making many campaign promises. Additionally, opposition parties do use clientelistic tactics, but not on the same level as the incumbent. Similarly, within the context of this study, the use of ethnic linkage by political parties to mobilize voters has not been found to be as strong as suggested in the literature. Further, location was key in determining the strategy to use. In all, the consolidation process of a democratic country like Ghana means the change of mobilization strategies used by political parties, which entail a gradual shift from ethnic linkages to programmatic and other forms of non-programmatic strategies.

Keywords: comparative analysis, elections, mobilization strategies, voter turnout

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