Search results for: multi criteria decision making (MCDM)
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 11956

Search results for: multi criteria decision making (MCDM)

11866 Decision Traps of Military Leaders

Authors: Ahmet Ali Turk, Muhterem Bayram

Abstract:

In this study, it is intended to determine that what kind of traps military leaders fall into during the decision making and how they make take a measure against them. In the study, the domestic and foreign literature on the military leadership has been reviewed and military decision-making process of the different countries has been introduced and study has been designed by making interviews as a sample with 50 people who had made military leadership. The issues resulting from the literature review that led to wrong decisions of military leaders and the points obtained as a result of interview have been evaluated by comparing. As a result, it has been emerged that the personnel who have made especially military leadership are in tendency of making the wrong decision due to decision traps such as excessive self-confidence, lack of experience, unplanned movement, hasty decision making and prohibitive conditions and also the need for increased situational awareness about this condition has been emerged.

Keywords: military leadership, decision making, military decision making, military decision making traps

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11865 Designing a Model to Increase the Flow of Circular Economy Startups Using a Systemic and Multi-Generational Approach

Authors: Luís Marques, João Rocha, Andreia Fernandes, Maria Moura, Cláudia Caseiro, Filipa Figueiredo, João Nunes

Abstract:

The implementation of circularity strategies other than recycling, such as reducing the amount of raw material, as well as reusing or sharing existing products, remains marginal. The European Commission announced that the transition towards a more circular economy could lead to the net creation of about 700,000 jobs in Europe by 2030, through additional labour demand from recycling plants, repair services and other circular activities. Efforts to create new circular business models in accordance with completely circular processes, as opposed to linear ones, have increased considerably in recent years. In order to create a societal Circular Economy transition model, it is necessary to include innovative solutions, where startups play a key role. Early-stage startups based on new business models according to circular processes often face difficulties in creating enough impact. The StartUp Zero Program designs a model and approach to increase the flow of startups in the Circular Economy field, focusing on a systemic decision analysis and multi-generational approach, considering Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to support a decision-making tool, which is also supported by the use of a combination of an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Multi-Attribute Value Theory methods. We define principles, criteria and indicators for evaluating startup prerogatives, quantifying the evaluation process in a unique result. Additionally, this entrepreneurship program spanning 16 months involved more than 2400 young people, from ages 14 to 23, in more than 200 interaction activities.

Keywords: circular economy, entrepreneurship, startups;, multi-criteria decision analysis

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11864 Statistical Approach to Identify Stress and Biases Impairing Decision-Making in High-Risk Industry

Authors: Ph. Fauquet-Alekhine

Abstract:

Decision-making occurs several times an hour when working in high risk industry and an erroneous choice might have undesirable outcomes for people and the environment surrounding the industrial plant. Industrial decisions are very often made in a context of acute stress. Time pressure is a crucial stressor leading decision makers sometimes to boost up the decision-making process and if it is not possible then shift to the simplest strategy. We thus found it interesting to update the characterization of the stress factors impairing decision-making at Chinon Nuclear Power Plant (France) in order to optimize decision making contexts and/or associated processes. The investigation was based on the analysis of reports addressing safety events over the last 3 years. Among 93 reports, those explicitly addressing decision-making issues were identified. Characterization of each event was undertaken in terms of three criteria: stressors, biases impairing decision making and weaknesses of the decision-making process. The statistical analysis showed that biases were distributed over 10 possibilities among which the hypothesis confirmation bias was clearly salient. No significant correlation was found between criteria. The analysis indicated that the main stressor was time pressure and highlights an unexpected form of stressor: the trust asymmetry principle of the expert. The analysis led to the conclusion that this stressor impaired decision-making from a psychological angle rather than from a physiological angle: it induces defensive bias of self-esteem, self-protection associated with a bias of confirmation. This leads to the hypothesis that this stressor can intervene in some cases without being detected, and to the hypothesis that other stressors of the same kind might occur without being detected too. Further investigations addressing these hypotheses are considered. The analysis also led to the conclusion that dealing with these issues implied i) decision-making methods being well known to the workers and automated and ii) the decision-making tools being well known and strictly applied. Training was thus adjusted.

Keywords: bias, expert, high risk industry, stress.

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11863 AHP and TOPSIS Methods for Supplier Selection Problem in Medical Devices Company

Authors: Sevde D. Karayel, Ediz Atmaca

Abstract:

Supplier selection subject is vital because of development competitiveness and performance of firms which have right, rapid and with low cost procurement. Considering the fact that competition between firms is no longer on their supply chains, hence it is very clear that performance of the firms’ not only depend on their own success but also success of all departments in supply chain. For this purpose, firms want to work with suppliers which are cost effective, flexible in terms of demand and high quality level for customer satisfaction. However, diversification and redundancy of their expectations from suppliers, supplier selection problems need to be solved as a hard problem. In this study, supplier selection problem is discussed for critical piece, which is using almost all production of products in and has troubles with lead time from supplier, in a firm that produces medical devices. Analyzing policy in the current situation of the firm in the supplier selection indicates that supplier selection is made based on the purchasing department experience and other authorized persons’ general judgments. Because selection do not make based on the analytical methods, it is caused disruptions in production, lateness and extra cost. To solve the problem, AHP and TOPSIS which are multi-criteria decision making techniques, which are effective, easy to implement and can analyze many criteria simultaneously, are used to make a selection among alternative suppliers.

Keywords: AHP-TOPSIS methods, multi-criteria decision making, supplier selection problem, supply chain management

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11862 Multi-Criteria Evaluation of IDS Architectures in Cloud Computing

Authors: Elmahdi Khalil, Saad Enniari, Mostapha Zbakh

Abstract:

Cloud computing promises to increase innovation and the velocity with witch applications are deployed, all while helping any enterprise meet most IT service needs at a lower total cost of ownership and higher return investment. As the march of cloud continues, it brings both new opportunities and new security challenges. To take advantages of those opportunities while minimizing risks, we think that Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) integrated in the cloud is one of the best existing solutions nowadays in the field. The concept of intrusion detection was known since past and was first proposed by a well-known researcher named Anderson in 1980's. Since that time IDS's are evolving. Although, several efforts has been made in the area of Intrusion Detection systems for cloud computing environment, many attacks still prevail. Therefore, the work presented in this paper proposes a multi criteria analysis and a comparative study between several IDS architectures designated to work in a cloud computing environments. To achieve this objective, in the first place we will search in the state of the art of several consistent IDS architectures designed to work in a cloud environment. Whereas, in a second step we will establish the criteria that will be useful for the evaluation of architectures. Later, using the approach of multi criteria decision analysis Mac Beth (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique we will evaluate the criteria and assign to each one the appropriate weight according to their importance in the field of IDS architectures in cloud computing. The last step is to evaluate architectures against the criteria and collecting results of the model constructed in the previous steps.

Keywords: cloud computing, cloud security, intrusion detection/prevention system, multi-criteria decision analysis

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11861 Utilization of Multi-Criteria Evaluation in Forensic Engineering and the Expertise outside Wall Subsystem

Authors: Tomas Barnak, Libor Matejka

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The aim of this study is to create a standard application using multi-criteria evaluation in the field of forensic engineering. This situation can occur in the professional assessment in several cases such as when it is necessary to consider more criteria variant of the structural subsystems, more variants according to several criteria based on a court claim, which requires expert advice. A problematic situation arises when it is necessary to clearly determine the ranking of the options according to established criteria, and reduce subjective evaluation. For the procurement in the field of construction which is based on the prepared text of the law not only economic criteria but also technical, technological and environmental criteria will be determined. This fact substantially changes the style of evaluation of individual bids. For the above-mentioned needs of procurement, the unification of expert’s decisions and the use of multi-criteria assessment seem to be a reasonable option. In the case of experimental verification when using multi-criteria evaluation of alternatives construction subsystem the economic, technical, technological and environmental criteria will be compared. The core of the solution is to compare a selected number of set criteria, application methods and evaluation weighting based on the weighted values assigned to each of the criteria to use multi-criteria evaluation methods. The sequence of individual variations is determined by the evaluation of the importance of the values of corresponding criteria concerning expertise in the problematic of outside wall constructional subsystems.

Keywords: criteria, expertise, multi-criteria evaluation, outside wall subsystems

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11860 Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process for Determination of Supply Chain Performance Evaluation Criteria

Authors: Ibrahim Cil, Onur Kurtcu, H. Ibrahim Demir, Furkan Yener, Yusuf. S. Turkan, Muharrem Unver, Ramazan Evren

Abstract:

Fuzzy AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method is decision-making way at the end of integrating the current AHP method with fuzzy structure. In this study, the processes of production planning, inventory management and purchasing department of a system were analysed and were requested to decide the performance criteria of each area. At this point, the current work processes were analysed by various decision-makers and comparing each criteria by giving points according to 1-9 scale were completed. The criteria were listed in order to their weights by using Fuzzy AHP approach and top three performance criteria of each department were determined. After that, the performance criteria of supply chain consisting of three departments were asked to determine. The processes of each department were compared by decision-makers at the point of building the supply chain performance system and getting the performance criteria. According to the results, the criteria of performance system of supply chain by using Fuzzy AHP were determined for which will be used in the supply chain performance system in the future.

Keywords: AHP, fuzzy, performance evaluation, supply chain

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11859 Establishing a Cause-Effect Relationship among the Key Success Factors of Healthcare Waste Management in India

Authors: Ankur Chauhan, Amol Singh

Abstract:

The increasing human resource has led to the rapid increment in the generation of healthcare waste across the world. Since, this waste consists of the infectious and hazardous components emerged from the patient care activities in different healthcare facilities; therefore, its proper management becomes vital for mitigating its negative impact on society and environment. The present research work focuses on the identification of the key success factors for developing a successful healthcare waste management plan. In addition, the key success factors have been studied by developing a causal diagram with the help of a decision making trial and evaluation (DEMATEL) approach. The findings of the study would help in the filtration of dominant key success factors which would further help in making a comparative assessment of the waste management plan of different hospitals.

Keywords: healthcare waste disposal, environment and society, multi-criteria decision making, DEMATEL

Procedia PDF Downloads 347
11858 Strategic Decision Making Practice in Croatia: Which Decision Making Style is More Effective?

Authors: Ivana Bulog

Abstract:

Decision making is a vital part of the business world and any other field of human endeavor. Which way a business organization will take, and where that way will lead it, depends on broad range of decisions made by managers in the managerial structure. Strategic decisions are of the greatest importance for organizational success. Although much empirical research has been done trying to describe and explain its nature and effectiveness, knowledge about strategic decision making is still incomplete. This paper explores the nature of strategic decision making in particular setting - in Croatian companies. The main focus of this research is on the style that decision makers on strategic management level are following when making decisions of life importance for their companies. Two main decision making style that explain the way decision maker collects and processes available information and performs all the activities in strategic decision making process were empirical tested: rational and intuitive one. Besides analyzing their existence on strategic management level in Croatian companies, their effectiveness is analyzed as well. Results showed that decision makers at strategic management level are following both styles somewhat equally in order to function effectively, and that intuitive style is more effective when considering decisions outcomes.

Keywords: decision making style, decision making effectiveness, strategic decisions, management sciences

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11857 Using Analytical Hierarchy Process and TOPSIS Approaches in Designing a Finite Element Analysis Automation Program

Authors: Ming Wen, Nasim Nezamoddini

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Sophisticated numerical simulations like finite element analysis (FEA) involve a complicated process from model setup to post-processing tasks that require replication of time-consuming steps. Utilizing FEA automation program simplifies the complexity of the involved steps while minimizing human errors in analysis set up, calculations, and results processing. One of the main challenges in designing FEA automation programs is to identify user requirements and link them to possible design alternatives. This paper presents a decision-making framework to design a Python based FEA automation program for modal analysis, frequency response analysis, and random vibration fatigue (RVF) analysis procedures. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) are applied to evaluate design alternatives considering the feedback received from experts and program users.

Keywords: finite element analysis, FEA, random vibration fatigue, process automation, analytical hierarchy process, AHP, TOPSIS, multiple-criteria decision-making, MCDM

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11856 Adolescents’ Role in Family Buying Decision Making

Authors: Harleen Kaur, Deepika Jindal Singla

Abstract:

Buying decision making is a complicated process, in which consumer’s decision is under the impact of others. The buying decision making is directed in a way that they have to act as customers in the society. Media and family are key socialising agents for adolescents’. Moreover, changes in the socio-cultural environment in India necessitate that adolescents’ influence in family’s buying decision-making should be investigated. In comparison to Western society, Indian is quite different, when compared in terms of family composition and structure, behaviour, values and norms which effect adolescents’ buying decision-making.

Keywords: adolescents, buying behavior, Indian urban families, consumer socialization

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11855 Application of Fuzzy TOPSIS in Evaluating Green Transportation Options for Dhaka Megacity

Authors: Md. Moniruzzaman, Thirayoot Limanond

Abstract:

Being the most visible indicator, the transport system of a city points out how developed the city is. Dhaka megacity holds a mixed composition of motorized and non-motorized modes of transport and the number of vehicle figure is escalating over times. And this obviously poses associated environmental costs like air pollution, noise etc. which is degrading the quality of life in the city. Eventually sustainable transport or more importantly green transport from environmental point of view has become a prime choice to the transport professionals in order to cope up the crisis. Currently the city authority is planning to execute such sustainable transport systems that could serve the pressing demand of the present and meet the future needs effectively. This study focuses on the selection and evaluation of green transportation systems among potential alternatives on a priority basis. In this paper, Fuzzy TOPSIS - a multi-criteria decision method is presented to find out the most prioritized alternative. In the first step, Twenty-one individual specific criteria for sustainability assessment are selected. In the following step, experts provide linguistic ratings to the potential alternatives with respect to the selected criteria. The approach is used to generate aggregate scores for sustainability assessment and selection of the best alternative. In the third step, a sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the influence of criteria weights on the decision making process. The key strength of fuzzy TOPSIS approach is its practical applicability having a generation of good quality solution even under uncertainty.

Keywords: green transport, multi-criteria decision approach, urban transportation system, sustainability assessment, fuzzy theory, uncertainty

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11854 Multi-Criteria Decision Making Tool for Assessment of Biorefinery Strategies

Authors: Marzouk Benali, Jawad Jeaidi, Behrang Mansoornejad, Olumoye Ajao, Banafsheh Gilani, Nima Ghavidel Mehr

Abstract:

Canadian forest industry is seeking to identify and implement transformational strategies for enhanced financial performance through the emerging bioeconomy or more specifically through the concept of the biorefinery. For example, processing forest residues or surplus of biomass available on the mill sites for the production of biofuels, biochemicals and/or biomaterials is one of the attractive strategies along with traditional wood and paper products and cogenerated energy. There are many possible process-product biorefinery pathways, each associated with specific product portfolios with different levels of risk. Thus, it is not obvious which unique strategy forest industry should select and implement. Therefore, there is a need for analytical and design tools that enable evaluating biorefinery strategies based on a set of criteria considering a perspective of sustainability over the short and long terms, while selecting the existing core products as well as selecting the new product portfolio. In addition, it is critical to assess the manufacturing flexibility to internalize the risk from market price volatility of each targeted bio-based product in the product portfolio, prior to invest heavily in any biorefinery strategy. The proposed paper will focus on introducing a systematic methodology for designing integrated biorefineries using process systems engineering tools as well as a multi-criteria decision making framework to put forward the most effective biorefinery strategies that fulfill the needs of the forest industry. Topics to be covered will include market analysis, techno-economic assessment, cost accounting, energy integration analysis, life cycle assessment and supply chain analysis. This will be followed by describing the vision as well as the key features and functionalities of the I-BIOREF software platform, developed by CanmetENERGY of Natural Resources Canada. Two industrial case studies will be presented to support the robustness and flexibility of I-BIOREF software platform: i) An integrated Canadian Kraft pulp mill with lignin recovery process (namely, LignoBoost™); ii) A standalone biorefinery based on ethanol-organosolv process.

Keywords: biorefinery strategies, bioproducts, co-production, multi-criteria decision making, tool

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11853 An Effective Decision-Making Strategy Based on Multi-Objective Optimization for Commercial Vehicles in Highway Scenarios

Authors: Weiming Hu, Xu Li, Xiaonan Li, Zhong Xu, Li Yuan, Xuan Dong

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Maneuver decision-making plays a critical role in high-performance intelligent driving. This paper proposes a risk assessment-based decision-making network (RADMN) to address the problem of driving strategy for the commercial vehicle. RADMN integrates two networks, aiming at identifying the risk degree of collision and rollover and providing decisions to ensure the effectiveness and reliability of driving strategy. In the risk assessment module, risk degrees of the backward collision, forward collision and rollover are quantified for hazard recognition. In the decision module, a deep reinforcement learning based on multi-objective optimization (DRL-MOO) algorithm is designed, which comprehensively considers the risk degree and motion states of each traffic participant. To evaluate the performance of the proposed framework, Prescan/Simulink joint simulation was conducted in highway scenarios. Experimental results validate the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed RADMN. The output driving strategy can guarantee the safety and provide key technical support for the realization of autonomous driving of commercial vehicles.

Keywords: decision-making strategy, risk assessment, multi-objective optimization, commercial vehicle

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11852 Possibilistic Aggregations in the Investment Decision Making

Authors: I. Khutsishvili, G. Sirbiladze, B. Ghvaberidze

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This work proposes a fuzzy methodology to support the investment decisions. While choosing among competitive investment projects, the methodology makes ranking of projects using the new aggregation OWA operator – AsPOWA, presented in the environment of possibility uncertainty. For numerical evaluation of the weighting vector associated with the AsPOWA operator the mathematical programming problem is constructed. On the basis of the AsPOWA operator the projects’ group ranking maximum criteria is constructed. The methodology also allows making the most profitable investments into several of the project using the method developed by the authors for discrete possibilistic bicriteria problems. The article provides an example of the investment decision-making that explains the work of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: expert evaluations, investment decision making, OWA operator, possibility uncertainty

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11851 Career Decision-Making Difficulty and Emotional Quotient: Basis for a Career Guidance Intervention for City College of Angeles

Authors: Rhenan D. Estacio

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This research presents the career decision making difficulty and emotional quotient of one hundred fifty (150) college students of City College of Angeles, Academic Year 2016-2017. Independent sample T-test and Pearson r correlation were done to shifter and non-shifter in terms of their career decision making difficulty and emotional quotient. A significant positive correlation revealed (r=.302) on career decision making difficulty and emotional quotient. Also, a significant negative correlation revealed (r=-.329) on career decision making difficulty and a moderating variable which is age. The finding significantly shows that emotional quotient was associated and adds a significant incremental variance with career decision making difficulty. Moreover, age shows a moderating effect on career decision making difficulty by having a significant decline and increment on variables. Furthermore, categorization of career decision making difficulty and emotional quotient of said participants are described in this study. In addition, career guidance interventions were suggested based on the results of this study.

Keywords: career, decision-making, difficulty, emotional, quotient

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11850 Web Service Architectural Style Selection in Multi-Criteria Requirements

Authors: Ahmad Mohsin, Syda Fatima, Falak Nawaz, Aman Ullah Khan

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Selection of an appropriate architectural style is vital to the success of target web service under development. The nature of architecture design and selection for service-oriented computing applications is quite different as compared to traditional software. Web Services have complex and rigorous architectural styles to choose. Due to this, selection for accurate architectural style for web services development has become a more complex decision to be made by architects. Architectural style selection is a multi-criteria decision and demands lots of experience in service oriented computing. Decision support systems are good solutions to simplify the selection process of a particular architectural style. Our research suggests a new approach using DSS for selection of architectural styles while developing a web service to cater FRs and NFRs. Our proposed DSS helps architects to select right web service architectural pattern according to the domain and non-functional requirements. In this paper, a rule base DSS has been developed using CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System) to support decisions using multi-criteria requirements. This DSS takes architectural characteristics, domain requirements and software architect preferences for NFRs as input for different architectural styles in use today in service-oriented computing. Weighted sum model has been applied to prioritize quality attributes and domain requirements. Scores are calculated using multiple criterions to choose the final architecture style.

Keywords: software architecture, web-service, rule-based, DSS, multi-criteria requirements, quality attributes

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11849 Fuzzy Multi-Component DEA with Shared and Undesirable Fuzzy Resources

Authors: Jolly Puri, Shiv Prasad Yadav

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Multi-component data envelopment analysis (MC-DEA) is a popular technique for measuring aggregate performance of the decision making units (DMUs) along with their components. However, the conventional MC-DEA is limited to crisp input and output data which may not always be available in exact form. In real life problems, data may be imprecise or fuzzy. Therefore, in this paper, we propose (i) a fuzzy MC-DEA (FMC-DEA) model in which shared and undesirable fuzzy resources are incorporated, (ii) the proposed FMC-DEA model is transformed into a pair of crisp models using cut approach, (iii) fuzzy aggregate performance of a DMU and fuzzy efficiencies of components are defined to be fuzzy numbers, and (iv) a numerical example is illustrated to validate the proposed approach.

Keywords: multi-component DEA, fuzzy multi-component DEA, fuzzy resources, decision making units (DMUs)

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11848 A Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process Approach for the Decision of Maintenance Priorities of Building Entities: A Case Study in a Facilities Management Company

Authors: Wai Ho Darrell Kwok

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Building entities are valuable assets of a society, however, all of them are suffered from the ravages of weather and time. Facilitating onerous maintenance activities is the only way to either maintain or enhance the value and contemporary standard of the premises. By the way, maintenance budget is always bounded by the corresponding threshold limit. In order to optimize the limited resources allocation in carrying out maintenance, there is a substantial need to prioritize maintenance work. This paper reveals the application of Fuzzy AHP in a Facilities Management Company determining the maintenance priorities on the basis of predetermined criteria, viz., Building Status (BS), Effects on Fabrics (EF), Effects on Sustainability (ES), Effects on Users (EU), Importance of Usage (IU) and Physical Condition (PC) in dealing with categorized 8 predominant building components maintenance aspects for building premises. From the case study, it is found that ‘building exterior repainting or re-tiling’, ‘spalling concrete repair works among exterior area’ and ‘lobby renovation’ are the top three maintenance priorities from facilities manager and maintenance expertise personnel. Through the application of the Fuzzy AHP for maintenance priorities decision algorithm, a more systemic and easier comparing scalar linearity factors being explored even in considering other multiple criteria decision scenarios of building maintenance issue.

Keywords: building maintenance, fuzzy AHP, maintenance priority, multi-criteria decision making

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11847 A Phenomenological Framework of Unconscious Cognition on Judicial Decision Making

Authors: Mariam Shah

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This paper will examine the potential influence and role of unconscious cognition on judicial decision making. The theoretical underpinnings of this paper rest on phenomenological theory grounded predominantly in Schutzian phenomenology. Aspects of Husserlian and Gadamerian phenomenology will be included within the phenomenological framework put forward in this paper, in an attempt to provide a more complete and thorough account of how unconscious cognition can influence judicial decision making. This paper has far reaching implications, as the framework provides a foundation for unconscious cognitive factors which can work to influence decision making more generally.

Keywords: decision making, Gadamer, Gadamerian, Husserl, Husserlian, judicial decision making, phenomenology, Schutz, Schutzian

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11846 Fragment Domination for Many-Objective Decision-Making Problems

Authors: Boris Djartov, Sanaz Mostaghim

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This paper presents a number-based dominance method. The main idea is how to fragment the many attributes of the problem into subsets suitable for the well-established concept of Pareto dominance. Although other similar methods can be found in the literature, they focus on comparing the solutions one objective at a time, while the focus of this method is to compare entire subsets of the objective vector. Given the nature of the method, it is computationally costlier than other methods and thus, it is geared more towards selecting an option from a finite set of alternatives, where each solution is defined by multiple objectives. The need for this method was motivated by dynamic alternate airport selection (DAAS). In DAAS, pilots, while en route to their destination, can find themselves in a situation where they need to select a new landing airport. In such a predicament, they need to consider multiple alternatives with many different characteristics, such as wind conditions, available landing distance, the fuel needed to reach it, etc. Hence, this method is primarily aimed at human decision-makers. Many methods within the field of multi-objective and many-objective decision-making rely on the decision maker to initially provide the algorithm with preference points and weight vectors; however, this method aims to omit this very difficult step, especially when the number of objectives is so large. The proposed method will be compared to Favour (1 − k)-Dom and L-dominance (LD) methods. The test will be conducted using well-established test problems from the literature, such as the DTLZ problems. The proposed method is expected to outperform the currently available methods in the literature and hopefully provide future decision-makers and pilots with support when dealing with many-objective optimization problems.

Keywords: multi-objective decision-making, many-objective decision-making, multi-objective optimization, many-objective optimization

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11845 Geospatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation to Predict Landslide Hazard Potential in the Catchment of Lake Naivasha, Kenya

Authors: Abdel Rahman Khider Hassan

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This paper describes a multi-criteria geospatial model for prediction of landslide hazard zonation (LHZ) for Lake Naivasha catchment (Kenya), based on spatial analysis of integrated datasets of location intrinsic parameters (slope stability factors) and external landslides triggering factors (natural and man-made factors). The intrinsic dataset included: lithology, geometry of slope (slope inclination, aspect, elevation, and curvature) and land use/land cover. The landslides triggering factors included: rainfall as the climatic factor, in addition to the destructive effects reflected by proximity of roads and drainage network to areas that are susceptible to landslides. No published study on landslides has been obtained for this area. Thus, digital datasets of the above spatial parameters were conveniently acquired, stored, manipulated and analyzed in a Geographical Information System (GIS) using a multi-criteria grid overlay technique (in ArcGIS 10.2.2 environment). Deduction of landslide hazard zonation is done by applying weights based on relative contribution of each parameter to the slope instability, and finally, the weighted parameters grids were overlaid together to generate a map of the potential landslide hazard zonation (LHZ) for the lake catchment. From the total surface of 3200 km² of the lake catchment, most of the region (78.7 %; 2518.4 km²) is susceptible to moderate landslide hazards, whilst about 13% (416 km²) is occurring under high hazards. Only 1.0% (32 km²) of the catchment is displaying very high landslide hazards, and the remaining area (7.3 %; 233.6 km²) displays low probability of landslide hazards. This result confirms the importance of steep slope angles, lithology, vegetation land cover and slope orientation (aspect) as the major determining factors of slope failures. The information provided by the produced map of landslide hazard zonation (LHZ) could lay the basis for decision making as well as mitigation and applications in avoiding potential losses caused by landslides in the Lake Naivasha catchment in the Kenya Highlands.

Keywords: decision making, geospatial, landslide, multi-criteria, Naivasha

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11844 Identifying Large-Scale Photovoltaic and Concentrated Solar Power Hot Spots: Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Framework

Authors: Ayat-Allah Bouramdane

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Solar Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) do not burn fossil fuels and, therefore, could meet the world's needs for low-carbon power generation as they do not release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere as they generate electricity. The power output of the solar PV module and CSP collector is proportional to the temperature and the amount of solar radiation received by their surface. Hence, the determination of the most convenient locations of PV and CSP systems is crucial to maximizing their output power. This study aims to provide a hands-on and plausible approach to the multi-criteria evaluation of site suitability of PV and CSP plants using a combination of Geographic Referenced Information (GRI) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Applying the GRI-based AHP approach is meant to specify the criteria and sub-criteria, to identify the unsuitable areas, the low-, moderate-, high- and very high suitable areas for each layer of GRI, to perform the pairwise comparison matrix at each level of the hierarchy structure based on experts' knowledge, and calculate the weights using AHP to create the final map of solar PV and CSP plants suitability in Morocco with a particular focus on the Dakhla city. The results recognize that solar irradiation is the main decision factor for the integration of these technologies on energy policy goals of Morocco but explicitly account for other factors that cannot only limit the potential of certain locations but can even exclude the Dakhla city classified as unsuitable area. We discuss the sensitivity of the PV and CSP site suitability to different aspects, such as the methodology, the climate conditions, and the technology used in each source, and provide the final recommendations to the Moroccan energy strategy by analyzing if actual Morocco's PV and CSP installations are located within areas deemed suitable and by discussing several cases to provide mutual benefits across the Food-Energy-Water nexus. The adapted methodology and conducted suitability map could be used by researchers or engineers to provide helpful information for decision-makers in terms of sites selection, design, and planning of future solar plants, especially in areas suffering from energy shortages, such as the Dakhla city, which is now one of Africa's most promising investment hubs and it is especially attractive to investors looking to root their operations in Africa and import to European markets.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, concentrated solar power, dakhla, geographic referenced information, Morocco, multi-criteria decision-making, photovoltaic, site suitability

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11843 Multi-Criteria Nautical Ports Capacity and Services Planning

Authors: N. Perko, N. Kavran, M. Bukljas, I. Berbic

Abstract:

This paper is a result of implemented research on proposed introduced methodology for nautical ports capacity planning by introducing a multi-criteria approach of defined criteria and impacts at the Adriatic Sea. The purpose was analysing the determinants -characteristics of infrastructure and services of nautical ports capacity allocated, especially nowadays due to COVID-19 pandemic, as crucial for the successful operation of nautical ports. Giving the importance of the defined priorities for short-term and long-term planning is essential not only in terms of the development of nautical tourism but also in terms of developing the maritime system, but unfortunately, this is not always carried out. Evaluation of the use of resources should follow from a detailed analysis of all aspects of resources bearing in mind that nautical tourism used resources in a sustainable manner and generate effects in the tourism and maritime sectors. Consequently, the identified multiplier effect of nautical tourism, which should be defined and quantified in detail, should be one of the major competitive products on the Croatian Adriatic and the Mediterranean. Research of nautical tourism is necessary to quantify the effects and required planning system development. In the future, the greatest threat to the long-term sustainable development of nautical tourism can be its further uncontrolled or unlimited and undirected development, especially under pressure markedly higher demand than supply for new moorings in the Mediterranean. Results of this implemented research are applicable to nautical ports management and decision-makers of maritime transport system development. This paper will present implemented research and obtained result-developed methodology for nautical port capacity planning -port capacity planning multi-criteria decision-making. A proposed methodological approach of multi-criteria capacity planning includes four criteria (spatial - transport, cost - infrastructure, ecological and organizational criteria, and additional services). The importance of the criteria and sub-criteria is evaluated and carried out as the basis for sensitivity analysis of the importance of the criteria and sub-criteria. Based on the analysis of the identified and quantified importance of certain criteria and sub-criteria, as well as sensitivity analysis and analysis of changes of the quantified importance, scientific and applicable results will be presented. These obtained results have practical applicability by management of nautical ports in the planning of increasing capacity and further development and for the adaptation of existing nautical ports. Obtained research is applicable and replicable in other seas, and results are especially important and useful in this COVID-19 pandemic challenging maritime development framework.

Keywords: Adriatic Sea, capacity, infrastructures, maritime system, methodology, nautical ports, nautical tourism, service

Procedia PDF Downloads 148
11842 A Literature Review on Sustainability Appraisal Methods for Highway Infrastructure Projects

Authors: S. Kaira, S. Mohamed, A. Rahman

Abstract:

Traditionally, highway infrastructure projects are initiated based on their economic benefits, thereafter environmental, social and governance impacts are addressed discretely for the selected project from a set of pre-determined alternatives. When opting for cost-benefit analysis (CBA), multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) has been used as the default assessment tool. But this tool has been critiqued as it does not mimic the real-world dynamic environment. Indeed, it is because of the fact that public sector projects like highways have to experience intense exposure to dynamic environments. Therefore, it is essential to appreciate the impacts of various dynamic factors (factors that change or progress with the system) on project performance. Thus, this paper presents various sustainability assessment tools that have been globally developed to determine sustainability performance of infrastructure projects during the design, procurement and commissioning phase. Indeed, identification of the current gaps in the available assessment methods provides a potential to add prominent part of knowledge in the field of ‘road project development systems and procedures’ that are generally used by road agencies.

Keywords: dynamic impact factors, micro and macro factors, sustainability assessment framework, sustainability performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 98
11841 Value Index, a Novel Decision Making Approach for Waste Load Allocation

Authors: E. Feizi Ashtiani, S. Jamshidi, M.H Niksokhan, A. Feizi Ashtiani

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Waste load allocation (WLA) policies may use multi-objective optimization methods to find the most appropriate and sustainable solutions. These usually intend to simultaneously minimize two criteria, total abatement costs (TC) and environmental violations (EV). If other criteria, such as inequity, need for minimization as well, it requires introducing more binary optimizations through different scenarios. In order to reduce the calculation steps, this study presents value index as an innovative decision making approach. Since the value index contains both the environmental violation and treatment costs, it can be maximized simultaneously with the equity index. It implies that the definition of different scenarios for environmental violations is no longer required. Furthermore, the solution is not necessarily the point with minimized total costs or environmental violations. This idea is testified for Haraz River, in north of Iran. Here, the dissolved oxygen (DO) level of river is simulated by Streeter-Phelps equation in MATLAB software. The WLA is determined for fish farms using multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) in two scenarios. At first, the trade-off curves of TC-EV and TC-Inequity are plotted separately as the conventional approach. In the second, the Value-Equity curve is derived. The comparative results show that the solutions are in a similar range of inequity with lower total costs. This is due to the freedom of environmental violation attained in value index. As a result, the conventional approach can well be replaced by the value index particularly for problems optimizing these objectives. This reduces the process to achieve the best solutions and may find better classification for scenario definition. It is also concluded that decision makers are better to focus on value index and weighting its contents to find the most sustainable alternatives based on their requirements.

Keywords: waste load allocation (WLA), value index, multi objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO), Haraz River, equity

Procedia PDF Downloads 386
11840 Decision Making in Medicine and Treatment Strategies

Authors: Kamran Yazdanbakhsh, Somayeh Mahmoudi

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Three reasons make good use of the decision theory in medicine: 1. Increased medical knowledge and their complexity makes it difficult treatment information effectively without resorting to sophisticated analytical methods, especially when it comes to detecting errors and identify opportunities for treatment from databases of large size. 2. There is a wide geographic variability of medical practice. In a context where medical costs are, at least in part, by the patient, these changes raise doubts about the relevance of the choices made by physicians. These differences are generally attributed to differences in estimates of probabilities of success of treatment involved, and differing assessments of the results on success or failure. Without explicit criteria for decision, it is difficult to identify precisely the sources of these variations in treatment. 3. Beyond the principle of informed consent, patients need to be involved in decision-making. For this, the decision process should be explained and broken down. A decision problem is to select the best option among a set of choices. The problem is what is meant by "best option ", or know what criteria guide the choice. The purpose of decision theory is to answer this question. The systematic use of decision models allows us to better understand the differences in medical practices, and facilitates the search for consensus. About this, there are three types of situations: situations certain, risky situations, and uncertain situations: 1. In certain situations, the consequence of each decision are certain. 2. In risky situations, every decision can have several consequences, the probability of each of these consequences is known. 3. In uncertain situations, each decision can have several consequences, the probability is not known. Our aim in this article is to show how decision theory can usefully be mobilized to meet the needs of physicians. The decision theory can make decisions more transparent: first, by clarifying the data systematically considered the problem and secondly by asking a few basic principles should guide the choice. Once the problem and clarified the decision theory provides operational tools to represent the available information and determine patient preferences, and thus assist the patient and doctor in their choices.

Keywords: decision making, medicine, treatment strategies, patient

Procedia PDF Downloads 548
11839 Youth Intelligent Personal Decision Aid

Authors: Norfiza Ibrahim, Norshuhada Shiratuddin, Siti Mahfuzah Sarif

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Decision-making system is used to facilitate people in making the right choice for their important daily activities. For the youth, proper guidance in making important decisions is needed. Their skills in decision-making aid decisions will indirectly affect their future. For that reason, this study focuses on the intelligent aspects in the development of intelligent decision support application. The aid apparently integrates Personality Traits (PT) and Multiple Intelligence (MI) data in development of a computerized personal decision aid for youth named as Youth Personal Decision Aid (Youth PDA). This study is concerned with the aid’s helpfulness based on the hybrid intelligent process. There are four main items involved which are reliability, decision making effort, confidence, as well as decision process awareness. Survey method was applied to the actual user of this system, namely the school and the Institute of Higher Education (IPT)’s students. An establish instrument was used to evaluate the study. The results of the analysis and findings in the assessment indicates a high mean value of the four dimensions in helping Youth PDA to be accepted as a useful tool for the youth in decision-making.

Keywords: decision support, multiple intelligent, personality traits, youth personal decision aid

Procedia PDF Downloads 594
11838 Financial Decision-Making among Finance Students: An Empirical Study from the Czech Republic

Authors: Barbora Chmelíková

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Making sound financial decisions is an essential skill which can have an impact on life of each consumer of financial products. The aim of this paper is to examine decision-making concerning financial matters and personal finance. The selected target group was university students majoring in finance related fields. The study was conducted in the Czech Republic at Masaryk University in 2015. In order to analyze financial decision-making questions related to basic finance decisions were developed to address the research objective. The results of the study suggest gaps in detecting best solutions to given financial decision-making questions among finance students. The analysis results indicate relation between financial decision-making and own experience with holding and using concrete financial products.

Keywords: financial decision-making, financial literacy, personal finance, university students

Procedia PDF Downloads 267
11837 Financial Literacy as an Important Skill for Household Financial Decision Making

Authors: Rimac Smiljanic Ana, Pepur Sandra, Bulog Ivana

Abstract:

Financial decision-making in the household is not simple, and it demands that the decision-maker has proper knowledge and skills. Usually, high uncertainty, risk, and stress surround household financial decision-making since it is extremely important and critical for household wealth accumulation and for the well-being of all household members. Generally, skilful people tend to have higher confidence in certain tasks they perform, and they achieve better results. Therefore, in the household context, the possession of certain skills by the ones who make financial decisions for the household is of particular importance. This paper addresses financial literacy as an important skill for household decision-making. Apart from financial literacy, the paper also considers other factors, such as employment, education, and age, as significant for household financial decision-making. The analysis is based on quantitative individual-level survey data. The data collection was conducted during January and February 2021 in Croatia through an online survey. To reach a wide variety of participants, the snowball sampling method was used. The result revealed interesting and somewhat puzzling results. Our results point to the importance of financial literacy skills for household decision-making.

Keywords: skill, financial literacy, decision-making, household financijal decision making

Procedia PDF Downloads 51