Search results for: modified predictive routing
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3533

Search results for: modified predictive routing

3353 Performance Analysis of ERA Using Fuzzy Logic in Wireless Sensor Network

Authors: Kamalpreet Kaur, Harjit Pal Singh, Vikas Khullar

Abstract:

In Wireless Sensor Network (WSN), the main limitation is generally inimitable energy consumption during processing of the sensor nodes. Cluster head (CH) election is one of the main issues that can reduce the energy consumption. Therefore, discovering energy saving routing protocol is the focused area for research. In this paper, fuzzy-based energy aware routing protocol is presented, which enhances the stability and network lifetime of the network. Fuzzy logic ensures the well-organized selection of CH by taking four linguistic variables that are concentration, energy, centrality, and distance to base station (BS). The results show that the proposed protocol shows better results in requisites of stability and throughput of the network.

Keywords: ERA, fuzzy logic, network model, WSN

Procedia PDF Downloads 232
3352 Predictive Analytics in Traffic Flow Management: Integrating Temporal Dynamics and Traffic Characteristics to Estimate Travel Time

Authors: Maria Ezziani, Rabie Zine, Amine Amar, Ilhame Kissani

Abstract:

This paper introduces a predictive model for urban transportation engineering, which is vital for efficient traffic management. Utilizing comprehensive datasets and advanced statistical techniques, the model accurately forecasts travel times by considering temporal variations and traffic dynamics. Machine learning algorithms, including regression trees and neural networks, are employed to capture sequential dependencies. Results indicate significant improvements in predictive accuracy, particularly during peak hours and holidays, with the incorporation of traffic flow and speed variables. Future enhancements may integrate weather conditions and traffic incidents. The model's applications range from adaptive traffic management systems to route optimization algorithms, facilitating congestion reduction and enhancing journey reliability. Overall, this research extends beyond travel time estimation, offering insights into broader transportation planning and policy-making realms, empowering stakeholders to optimize infrastructure utilization and improve network efficiency.

Keywords: predictive analytics, traffic flow, travel time estimation, urban transportation, machine learning, traffic management

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3351 Surface Modified Nano-Diamond/Polyimide Hybrid Composites

Authors: Hati̇ce Bi̇rtane, Asli Beyler Çi̇ği̇l, Memet Vezi̇r Kahraman

Abstract:

Polyimide (PI) is one of the most important super-engineering materials because of its mechanical properties and its thermal stability. Electronic industry is the typical extensive applications of polyimides including interlayer insulation films, buffer coating, films, alpha-ray shielding films, and alignment films for liquid crystal displays. The mechanical and thermal properties of polymers are generally improved by the addition of inorganic additives. The challenges in this area of high-performance organic/inorganic hybrid materials are to obtain significant improvements in the interfacial adhesion between the polymer matrix and the reinforcing material since the organic matrix is relatively incompatible with the inorganic phase. In this study, modified nanodiamond was prepared from the reaction of nanodiamond and (3-Mercaptopropyl)trimethoxysilane. Poly(amic acid) was prepared from the reaction of 3,3',4,4'-Benzophenonetetracarboxylic dianhydride (BTDA) and 4,4'-Oxydianiline (ODA). Polyimide/modified nanodiamond hybrids were prepared by blending of poly(amic acid) and organically modified nanodiamond. The morphology of the Polyimide/ modified nanodiamond hybrids was characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Chemical structure of polyimide and Polyimide/modified nanodiamond hybrids was characterized by FTIR. FTIR results showed that the Polyimide/modified nanodiamond hybrids were successfully prepared. A thermal property of the Polyimide/modified nanodiamond hybrids was characterized by thermogravimetric analysis (TGA).

Keywords: hybrid materials, nanodiamond, polyimide, polymer

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3350 Route Planning for Optimization Approach PSO_GA Sharing System (Scooter Sharing-Public Transportation) with Hybrid Optimization Approach PSO_GA

Authors: Mohammad Ali Farrokhpour

Abstract:

In the current decade and sustainable transportation systems, scooter sharing has attracted widespread attention as an environmentally-friendly means of public transportation which can help develop public transportation. The combination of scooters and subway in the area of sustainable transportation systems can provide a great many opportunities for developing access to public transportation. Of the challenges which have arisen and initiated discussions of interest about the implementation of a scooter-subway system to replace personal vehicles is the issue of routing in the aforementioned system. This has been chosen as the main subject of the present paper. Thus, the present paper provides an account for routing in this system. Because the issue of routing includes multiple factors such as time, costs, traffic, green spaces, etc., the above-mentioned problem is considered to be a multi-objective NP-hard optimization problem. For this purpose, the hybrid optimization approach of PSO-GA has been put forward in the present paper for the provided answers to be of higher accuracy and validity than those of normal optimization methods. The results obtained from modeling and problem solving for the case study in the MATLAB software are indicative of the efficiency and desirability of the model and the proposed approach for solving the model

Keywords: route planning, scooter sharing, public transportation, sharing system

Procedia PDF Downloads 52
3349 Nonlinear Model Predictive Control of Water Quality in Drinking Water Distribution Systems with DBPs Objetives

Authors: Mingyu Xie, Mietek Brdys

Abstract:

The paper develops a non-linear model predictive control (NMPC) of water quality in drinking water distribution systems (DWDS) based on the advanced non-linear quality dynamics model including disinfections by-products (DBPs). A special attention is paid to the analysis of an impact of the flow trajectories prescribed by an upper control level of the recently developed two-time scale architecture of an integrated quality and quantity control in DWDS. The new quality controller is to operate within this architecture in the fast time scale as the lower level quality controller. The controller performance is validated by a comprehensive simulation study based on an example case study DWDS.

Keywords: model predictive control, hierarchical control structure, genetic algorithm, water quality with DBPs objectives

Procedia PDF Downloads 279
3348 An Energy Holes Avoidance Routing Protocol for Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks

Authors: A. Khan, H. Mahmood

Abstract:

In Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks (UWSNs), sensor nodes close to water surface (final destination) are often preferred for selection as forwarders. However, their frequent selection makes them depleted of their limited battery power. In consequence, these nodes die during early stage of network operation and create energy holes where forwarders are not available for packets forwarding. These holes severely affect network throughput. As a result, system performance significantly degrades. In this paper, a routing protocol is proposed to avoid energy holes during packets forwarding. The proposed protocol does not require the conventional position information (localization) of holes to avoid them. Localization is cumbersome; energy is inefficient and difficult to achieve in underwater environment where sensor nodes change their positions with water currents. Forwarders with the lowest water pressure level and the maximum number of neighbors are preferred to forward packets. These two parameters together minimize packet drop by following the paths where maximum forwarders are available. To avoid interference along the paths with the maximum forwarders, a packet holding time is defined for each forwarder. Simulation results reveal superior performance of the proposed scheme than the counterpart technique.

Keywords: energy holes, interference, routing, underwater

Procedia PDF Downloads 375
3347 Predictive Analytics in Oil and Gas Industry

Authors: Suchitra Chnadrashekhar

Abstract:

Earlier looked as a support function in an organization information technology has now become a critical utility to manage their daily operations. Organizations are processing huge amount of data which was unimaginable few decades before. This has opened the opportunity for IT sector to help industries across domains to handle the data in the most intelligent manner. Presence of IT has been a leverage for the Oil & Gas industry to store, manage and process the data in most efficient way possible thus deriving the economic value in their day-to-day operations. Proper synchronization between Operational data system and Information Technology system is the need of the hour. Predictive analytics supports oil and gas companies by addressing the challenge of critical equipment performance, life cycle, integrity, security, and increase their utilization. Predictive analytics go beyond early warning by providing insights into the roots of problems. To reach their full potential, oil and gas companies need to take a holistic or systems approach towards asset optimization and thus have the functional information at all levels of the organization in order to make the right decisions. This paper discusses how the use of predictive analysis in oil and gas industry is redefining the dynamics of this sector. Also, the paper will be supported by real time data and evaluation of the data for a given oil production asset on an application tool, SAS. The reason for using SAS as an application for our analysis is that SAS provides an analytics-based framework to improve uptimes, performance and availability of crucial assets while reducing the amount of unscheduled maintenance, thus minimizing maintenance-related costs and operation disruptions. With state-of-the-art analytics and reporting, we can predict maintenance problems before they happen and determine root causes in order to update processes for future prevention.

Keywords: hydrocarbon, information technology, SAS, predictive analytics

Procedia PDF Downloads 315
3346 Agriculture Yield Prediction Using Predictive Analytic Techniques

Authors: Nagini Sabbineni, Rajini T. V. Kanth, B. V. Kiranmayee

Abstract:

India’s economy primarily depends on agriculture yield growth and their allied agro industry products. The agriculture yield prediction is the toughest task for agricultural departments across the globe. The agriculture yield depends on various factors. Particularly countries like India, majority of agriculture growth depends on rain water, which is highly unpredictable. Agriculture growth depends on different parameters, namely Water, Nitrogen, Weather, Soil characteristics, Crop rotation, Soil moisture, Surface temperature and Rain water etc. In our paper, lot of Explorative Data Analysis is done and various predictive models were designed. Further various regression models like Linear, Multiple Linear, Non-linear models are tested for the effective prediction or the forecast of the agriculture yield for various crops in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana states.

Keywords: agriculture yield growth, agriculture yield prediction, explorative data analysis, predictive models, regression models

Procedia PDF Downloads 270
3345 Modification of Newton Method in Two Points Block Differentiation Formula

Authors: Khairil Iskandar Othman, Nadhirah Kamal, Zarina Bibi Ibrahim

Abstract:

Block methods for solving stiff systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are based on backward differential formulas (BDF) with PE(CE)2 and Newton method. In this paper, we introduce Modified Newton as a new strategy to get more efficient result. The derivation of BBDF using modified block Newton method is presented. This new block method with predictor-corrector gives more accurate result when compared to the existing BBDF.

Keywords: modified Newton, stiff, BBDF, Jacobian matrix

Procedia PDF Downloads 335
3344 Artificial Steady-State-Based Nonlinear MPC for Wheeled Mobile Robot

Authors: M. H. Korayem, Sh. Ameri, N. Yousefi Lademakhi

Abstract:

To ensure the stability of closed-loop nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) within a finite horizon, there is a need for appropriate design terminal ingredients, which can be a time-consuming and challenging effort. Otherwise, in order to ensure the stability of the control system, it is necessary to consider an infinite predictive horizon. Increasing the prediction horizon increases computational demand and slows down the implementation of the method. In this study, a new technique has been proposed to ensure system stability without terminal ingredients. This technique has been employed in the design of the NMPC algorithm, leading to a reduction in the computational complexity of designing terminal ingredients and computational burden. The studied system is a wheeled mobile robot (WMR) subjected to non-holonomic constraints. Simulation has been investigated for two problems: trajectory tracking and adjustment mode.

Keywords: wheeled mobile robot, nonlinear model predictive control, stability, without terminal ingredients

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3343 Meteosat Second Generation Image Compression Based on the Radon Transform and Linear Predictive Coding: Comparison and Performance

Authors: Cherifi Mehdi, Lahdir Mourad, Ameur Soltane

Abstract:

Image compression is used to reduce the number of bits required to represent an image. The Meteosat Second Generation satellite (MSG) allows the acquisition of 12 image files every 15 minutes. Which results a large databases sizes. The transform selected in the images compression should contribute to reduce the data representing the images. The Radon transform retrieves the Radon points that represent the sum of the pixels in a given angle for each direction. Linear predictive coding (LPC) with filtering provides a good decorrelation of Radon points using a Predictor constitute by the Symmetric Nearest Neighbor filter (SNN) coefficients, which result losses during decompression. Finally, Run Length Coding (RLC) gives us a high and fixed compression ratio regardless of the input image. In this paper, a novel image compression method based on the Radon transform and linear predictive coding (LPC) for MSG images is proposed. MSG image compression based on the Radon transform and the LPC provides a good compromise between compression and quality of reconstruction. A comparison of our method with other whose two based on DCT and one on DWT bi-orthogonal filtering is evaluated to show the power of the Radon transform in its resistibility against the quantization noise and to evaluate the performance of our method. Evaluation criteria like PSNR and the compression ratio allows showing the efficiency of our method of compression.

Keywords: image compression, radon transform, linear predictive coding (LPC), run lengthcoding (RLC), meteosat second generation (MSG)

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3342 Modified Atmosphere Packaging (MAP) and the Effect of Chemical Preservative to Enhance Shelf Life of Khoa

Authors: Tanima Chowdhury, Sanjay Chattopadhaya, Narayan Ch. Saha

Abstract:

Khoa is an indigenous heat desiccated milk product having very poor shelf life. At ambient condition, shelf-life of khoa is normally only 2 days. The aim of present study was to determine the effect of benzoic acid as preservative as well as modified atmosphere packaging (MAP) technology to enhance shelf life of khoa at 27±2°C and 65% RH. During storage, analysis of chemical, sensory as well as microbiological characteristics were taken into consideration to mark distinguishable changes between the package of modified atmosphere technology (MAP) and ordinarily packed khoa (with and without preservative) samples. The results indicated a significant decrease of moisture content, pH and sensory scores and increase in titratable acidity, standard plate count and yeast and mould count during storage, irrespective of the type of packaging conditions. However, the rate of changes in characteristics of product packed in modified atmosphere was found to be slow. The storage study indicated that the khoa packed in ordinary packaging, with and without preservative, was acceptable for 4 and 8 days, respectively, whereas for modified atmosphere packed samples, it was consumable up to 8 and 12 days, respectively.

Keywords: benzoic acid, khoa, modified atmosphere packaging, shelf life

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3341 Optimizing Microgrid Operations: A Framework of Adaptive Model Predictive Control

Authors: Ruben Lopez-Rodriguez

Abstract:

In a microgrid, diverse energy sources (both renewable and non-renewable) are combined with energy storage units to form a localized power system. Microgrids function as independent entities, capable of meeting the energy needs of specific areas or communities. This paper introduces a Model Predictive Control (MPC) approach tailored for grid-connected microgrids, aiming to optimize their operation. The formulation employs Mixed-Integer Programming (MIP) to find optimal trajectories. This entails the fulfillment of continuous and binary constraints, all while accounting for commutations between various operating conditions such as storage unit charge/discharge, import/export from/towards the main grid, as well as asset connection/disconnection. To validate the proposed approach, a microgrid case study is conducted, and the simulation results are compared with those obtained using a rule-based strategy.

Keywords: microgrids, mixed logical dynamical systems, mixed-integer optimization, model predictive control

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3340 Investigation of Active Modified Atmosphere and Nanoparticle Packaging on Quality of Tomatoes

Authors: M. Ghasemi-Varnamkhasti, S. H. Yoosefian, A. Mohammad-Razdari

Abstract:

This study investigated the effects of Ag nanoparticle polyethylene film and active modified atmosphere on the postharvest quality of tomatoes stored at 6 ºC. The atmosphere composition used in the packaging was 7% O2 + 7% CO2 + 86% N2, and synthetic air (control). The variables measured were weight loss, firmness, color and respiration rate over 21 days. The results showed that the combination of Ag nanoparticle polyethylene film and modified atmosphere could extend the shelf life of tomatoes to 21 days and could influence the postharvest quality of tomatoes. Also, existence of Ag nanoparticles caused preventing from increasing weight loss, a*, b*, Chroma, Hue angle and reducing firmness and L*. As well as, tomatoes at Ag nanoparticle polyethylene films had lower respiration rate than Polyethylene and paper bags to 13.27% and 23.50%, respectively. The combination of Ag nanoparticle polyethylene film and active modified atmosphere was effective with regard to delaying maturity during the storage period, and preserving the quality of tomatoes.

Keywords: ag nanoparticles, modified atmosphere, polyethylene film, tomato

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3339 Efficient Prediction of Surface Roughness Using Box Behnken Design

Authors: Ajay Kumar Sarathe, Abhinay Kumar

Abstract:

Production of quality products required for specific engineering applications is an important issue. The roughness of the surface plays an important role in the quality of the product by using appropriate machining parameters to eliminate wastage due to over machining. To increase the quality of the surface, the optimum machining parameter setting is crucial during the machining operation. The effect of key machining parameters- spindle speed, feed rate, and depth of cut on surface roughness has been evaluated. Experimental work was carried out using High Speed Steel tool and AlSI 1018 as workpiece material. In this study, the predictive model has been developed using Box-Behnken Design. An experimental investigation has been carried out for this work using BBD for three factors and observed that the predictive model of Ra value is closed to predictive value with a marginal error of 2.8648 %. Developed model establishes a correlation between selected key machining parameters that influence the surface roughness in a AISI 1018. F

Keywords: ANOVA, BBD, optimisation, response surface methodology

Procedia PDF Downloads 129
3338 Enhancing Predictive Accuracy in Pharmaceutical Sales through an Ensemble Kernel Gaussian Process Regression Approach

Authors: Shahin Mirshekari, Mohammadreza Moradi, Hossein Jafari, Mehdi Jafari, Mohammad Ensaf

Abstract:

This research employs Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with an ensemble kernel, integrating Exponential Squared, Revised Matern, and Rational Quadratic kernels to analyze pharmaceutical sales data. Bayesian optimization was used to identify optimal kernel weights: 0.76 for Exponential Squared, 0.21 for Revised Matern, and 0.13 for Rational Quadratic. The ensemble kernel demonstrated superior performance in predictive accuracy, achieving an R² score near 1.0, and significantly lower values in MSE, MAE, and RMSE. These findings highlight the efficacy of ensemble kernels in GPR for predictive analytics in complex pharmaceutical sales datasets.

Keywords: Gaussian process regression, ensemble kernels, bayesian optimization, pharmaceutical sales analysis, time series forecasting, data analysis

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3337 Effect of Rubber Tyre and Plastic Wastes Use in Asphalt Concrete Pavement

Authors: F. Onyango, Salim R. Wanjala, M. Ndege, L. Masu

Abstract:

Asphalt concrete pavements have a short life cycle, failing mainly due to temperature changes, traffic loading and ageing. Modified asphalt mixtures provide the technology to produce a bituminous binder with improved viscoelastic properties which remain in balance over a wider temperature range and loading conditions. In this research, 60/70 penetration grade asphalt binder was modified by adding 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 percent by weight of asphalt binder following the wet process and the mineral aggregate was modified by adding 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 percent crumb rubber by volume of the mineral aggregate following the dry process. The LDPE modified asphalt binder Rheological properties were evaluated. The laboratory results showed an increase in viscosity, softening point and stiffness of the binder. The modified asphalt was then used in preparing asphalt mixtures by Marshall Mix design procedure. The Marshall stability values for mixes containing 2% crumb rubber and 4% LDPE were found to be 30% higher than the conventional asphalt concrete mix.

Keywords: crumb rubber, dry process, hot mix asphalt, wet process

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3336 A Hybrid Algorithm Based on Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search Procedure and Chemical Reaction Optimization for the Vehicle Routing Problem with Hard Time Windows

Authors: Imen Boudali, Marwa Ragmoun

Abstract:

The Vehicle Routing Problem with Hard Time Windows (VRPHTW) is a basic distribution management problem that models many real-world problems. The objective of the problem is to deliver a set of customers with known demands on minimum-cost vehicle routes while satisfying vehicle capacity and hard time windows for customers. In this paper, we propose to deal with our optimization problem by using a new hybrid stochastic algorithm based on two metaheuristics: Chemical Reaction Optimization (CRO) and Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search Procedure (GRASP). The first method is inspired by the natural process of chemical reactions enabling the transformation of unstable substances with excessive energy to stable ones. During this process, the molecules interact with each other through a series of elementary reactions to reach minimum energy for their existence. This property is embedded in CRO to solve the VRPHTW. In order to enhance the population diversity throughout the search process, we integrated the GRASP in our method. Simulation results on the base of Solomon’s benchmark instances show the very satisfactory performances of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Benchmark Problems, Combinatorial Optimization, Vehicle Routing Problem with Hard Time Windows, Meta-heuristics, Hybridization, GRASP, CRO

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3335 Performance Evaluation of a Prioritized, Limited Multi-Server Processor-Sharing System that Includes Servers with Various Capacities

Authors: Yoshiaki Shikata, Nobutane Hanayama

Abstract:

We present a prioritized, limited multi-server processor sharing (PS) system where each server has various capacities, and N (≥2) priority classes are allowed in each PS server. In each prioritized, limited server, different service ratio is assigned to each class request, and the number of requests to be processed is limited to less than a certain number. Routing strategies of such prioritized, limited multi-server PS systems that take into account the capacity of each server are also presented, and a performance evaluation procedure for these strategies is discussed. Practical performance measures of these strategies, such as loss probability, mean waiting time, and mean sojourn time, are evaluated via simulation. In the PS server, at the arrival (or departure) of a request, the extension (shortening) of the remaining sojourn time of each request receiving service can be calculated by using the number of requests of each class and the priority ratio. Utilising a simulation program which executes these events and calculations, the performance of the proposed prioritized, limited multi-server PS rule can be analyzed. From the evaluation results, most suitable routing strategy for the loss or waiting system is clarified.

Keywords: processor sharing, multi-server, various capacity, N-priority classes, routing strategy, loss probability, mean sojourn time, mean waiting time, simulation

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3334 Application of Nitric Acid Modified Cocos nucifera, Pennisetum glaucum and Sorghum bicolor Activated Carbon for Adsorption of H₂S Gas

Authors: Z. N. Ali, O. A. Babatunde, S. Garba, H. M. S. Haruna

Abstract:

The potency of modified and unmodified activated carbons prepared from shells of Cocos nucifera (coconut shell), straws of Pennisetum glaucum (millet) and Sorghum bicolor (sorghum) for adsorption of hydrogen sulphide gas were investigated using an adsorption apparatus (stainless steel cylinder) at constant temperature (ambient temperature). The adsorption equilibria states were obtained when the pressure indicated on the pressure gauge remained constant. After modification with nitric acid, results of the scanning electron microscopy of the unmodified and modified activated carbons showed that HNO3 greatly improved the formation of micropores and mesopores on the activated carbon surface. The adsorption of H2S gas was found to be highest in modified Cocos nucifera activated carbon with maximum monolayer coverage of 28.17 mg/g, and the adsorption processes were both physical and chemical with the physical process being predominant. The adsorption data were well fitted into the Langmuir isotherm model with the adsorption capacities of the activated carbons in the order modified Cocos nucifera > modified Pennisetum glaucum > modified Sorghum bicolor > unmodified Cocos nucifera > unmodified Pennisetum glaucum > unmodified Sorghum bicolour.

Keywords: activated carbon adsorption, hydrogen sulphide, nitric acid, modification, stainless steel cylinder

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3333 Performance and Limitations of Likelihood Based Information Criteria and Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation Approximation Methods

Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

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3332 Physical and Rheological Properties of Asphalt Modified with Cellulose Date Palm Fibers

Authors: Howaidi M. Al-Otaibi, Abdulrahman S. Al-Suhaibani, Hamad A. Alsoliman

Abstract:

Fibers are extensively used in civil engineering applications for many years. In this study, empty fruit bunch of date palm trees were used to produce cellulose fiber that were used as additives in the asphalt binder. Two sizes (coarse and fine) of cellulose fibers were pre-blended in PG64-22 binder with various contents of 1.5%, 3%, 4.5%, 6%, and 7.5% by weight of asphalt binder. The physical and rheological properties of fiber modified asphalt binders were tested by using conventional tests such as penetration, softening point and viscosity; and SHRP test such as dynamic shear rheometer. The results indicated that the fiber modified asphalt binders were higher in softening point, viscosity, and complex shear modulus, and lower in penetration compared to pure asphalt. The fiber modified binders showed an improvement in rheological properties since it was possible to raise the control binder (pure asphalt) PG from 64 to 70 by adding 6% (by weight) of either fine or coarse fibers. Such improvement in stiffness of fiber modified binder is expected to improve pavement resistance to rutting.

Keywords: cellulose date palm fiber, fiber modified asphalt, physical properties, rheological properties

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3331 Numerical Solutions of Generalized Burger-Fisher Equation by Modified Variational Iteration Method

Authors: M. O. Olayiwola

Abstract:

Numerical solutions of the generalized Burger-Fisher are obtained using a Modified Variational Iteration Method (MVIM) with minimal computational efforts. The computed results with this technique have been compared with other results. The present method is seen to be a very reliable alternative method to some existing techniques for such nonlinear problems.

Keywords: burger-fisher, modified variational iteration method, lagrange multiplier, Taylor’s series, partial differential equation

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3330 Synchronized Vehicle Routing for Equitable Resource Allocation in Food Banks

Authors: Rabiatu Bonku, Faisal Alkaabneh

Abstract:

Inspired by a food banks distribution operation for non-profit organization, we study a variant synchronized vehicle routing problem for equitable resource allocation. This research paper introduces a Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) model aimed at addressing the complex challenge of efficiently distributing vital resources, particularly for food banks serving vulnerable populations in urban areas. Our optimization approach places a strong emphasis on social equity, ensuring a fair allocation of food to partner agencies while minimizing wastage. The primary objective is to enhance operational efficiency while guaranteeing fair distribution and timely deliveries to prevent food spoilage. Furthermore, we assess four distinct models that consider various aspects of sustainability, including social and economic factors. We conduct a comprehensive numerical analysis using real-world data to gain insights into the trade-offs that arise, while also demonstrating the models’ performance in terms of fairness, effectiveness, and the percentage of food waste. This provides valuable managerial insights for food bank managers. We show that our proposed approach makes a significant contribution to the field of logistics optimization and social responsibility, offering valuable insights for improving the operations of food banks.

Keywords: food banks, humanitarian logistics, equitable resource allocation, synchronized vehicle routing

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3329 Insulin Resistance in Children and Adolescents in Relation to Body Mass Index, Waist Circumference and Body Fat Weight

Authors: E. Vlachopapadopoulou, E. Dikaiakou, E. Anagnostou, I. Panagiotopoulos, E. Kaloumenou, M. Kafetzi, A. Fotinou, S. Michalacos

Abstract:

Aim: To investigate the relation and impact of Body Mass Index (BMI), Waist Circumference (WC) and Body Fat Weight (BFW) on insulin resistance (MATSUDA INDEX < 2.5) in children and adolescents. Methods: Data from 95 overweight and obese children (47 boys and 48 girls) with mean age 10.7 ± 2.2 years were analyzed. ROC analysis was used to investigate the predictive ability of BMI, WC and BFW for insulin resistance and find the optimal cut-offs. The overall performance of the ROC analysis was quantified by computing area under the curve (AUC). Results: ROC curve analysis indicated that the optimal-cut off of WC for the prediction of insulin resistance was 97 cm with sensitivity equal to 75% and specificity equal to 73.1%. AUC was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.63-0.92, p=0.001). The sensitivity and specificity of obesity for the discrimination of participants with insulin resistance from those without insulin resistance were equal to 58.3% and 75%, respectively (AUC=0.67). BFW had a borderline predictive ability for insulin resistance (AUC=0.58, 95% CI: 0.43-0.74, p=0.101). The predictive ability of WC was equivalent with the correspondence predictive ability of BMI (p=0.891). Obese subjects had 4.2 times greater odds for having insulin resistance (95% CI: 1.71-10.30, p < 0.001), while subjects with WC more than 97 had 8.1 times greater odds for having insulin resistance (95% CI: 2.14-30.86, p=0.002). Conclusion: BMI and WC are important clinical factors that have significant clinical relation with insulin resistance in children and adolescents. The cut off of 97 cm for WC can identify children with greater likelihood for insulin resistance.

Keywords: body fat weight, body mass index, insulin resistance, obese children, waist circumference

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3328 Experimental Study on Modified Double Slope Solar Still and Modified Basin Type Double Slope Multiwick Solar Still

Authors: Piyush Pal, Rahul Dev

Abstract:

Water is essential for life and fresh water is a finite resource that is becoming scarce day by day even though it is recycled by hydrological cycle. The fresh water reserves are being polluted due to expanding irrigation, industries, urban population and its development. Contaminated water leads to several health problems. With the increasing demand of fresh water, solar distillation is an alternate solution which uses solar energy to evaporate water and then to condense it, thereby collecting distilled water within or outside the same system to use it as potable water. The structure that houses the process is known as a 'solar still'. In this paper, ‘Modified double slope solar still (MDSSS)’ & 'Modified double slope basin type multiwick solar still (MDSBMSS)' have been designed to convert saline, brackish water into drinking water. In this work two different modified solar stills are fabricated to study the performance of these solar stills. For modification of solar stills, Fibre Reinforced Plastic (FRP) and Acrylic sheets are used. The experiments in MDSBMSS and MDSSS was carried on 10 September 2015 & 5 November 2015 respectively. Performances of the stills were investigated. The amount of distillate has been found 3624 Ml/day in MDSBMSS on 10 September 2015 and 2400 Ml/day in MDSSS on 5 November 2015.

Keywords: contaminated water, conventional solar still, modified solar still, wick

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3327 The Influence of Alginate Microspheres Modified with DAT on the Proliferation and Adipogenic Differentiation of ASCs

Authors: Shin-Yi Mao, Jiashing Yu

Abstract:

Decellularized adipose tissue (DAT) has received lots of attention as biological scaffolds recently. DAT that extracted from the extracellular matrix (ECM) of adipose tissues holds great promise as a xenogeneic biomaterial for tissue engineering and regenerative medicine. In our study, 2-D DATsol film was fabricated to enhance cell adhesion, proliferation, and differentiation of ASCs in vitro. DAT was also used to modify alginate for improvement of cell adhesion. Alginate microspheres modified with DAT were prepared by Nisco. These microspheres could provide a highly supportive 3-D environment for ASCs. In our works, ASCs were immobilized in alginate microspheres modified with DAT to promoted cell adhesion and adipogenic differentiation. Accordingly, we hypothesize that tissue regeneration in vivo could be promoted with the aid of modified microspheres in future.

Keywords: adipose stem cells, decellularize adipose tissue, Alginate, microcarries

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3326 Lessons Learned from Interlaboratory Noise Modelling in Scope of Environmental Impact Assessments in Slovenia

Authors: S. Cencek, A. Markun

Abstract:

Noise assessment methods are regularly used in scope of Environmental Impact Assessments for planned projects to assess (predict) the expected noise emissions of these projects. Different noise assessment methods could be used. In recent years, we had an opportunity to collaborate in some noise assessment procedures where noise assessments of different laboratories have been performed simultaneously. We identified some significant differences in noise assessment results between laboratories in Slovenia. We estimate that despite good input Georeferenced Data to set up acoustic model exists in Slovenia; there is no clear consensus on methods for predictive noise methods for planned projects. We analyzed input data, methods and results of predictive noise methods for two planned industrial projects, both were done independently by two laboratories. We also analyzed the data, methods and results of two interlaboratory collaborative noise models for two existing noise sources (railway and motorway). In cases of predictive noise modelling, the validations of acoustic models were performed by noise measurements of surrounding existing noise sources, but in varying durations. The acoustic characteristics of existing buildings were also not described identically. The planned noise sources were described and digitized differently. Differences in noise assessment results between different laboratories have ranged up to 10 dBA, which considerably exceeds the acceptable uncertainty ranged between 3 to 6 dBA. Contrary to predictive noise modelling, in cases of collaborative noise modelling for two existing noise sources the possibility to perform the validation noise measurements of existing noise sources greatly increased the comparability of noise modelling results. In both cases of collaborative noise modelling for existing motorway and railway, the modelling results of different laboratories were comparable. Differences in noise modeling results between different laboratories were below 5 dBA, which was acceptable uncertainty set up by interlaboratory noise modelling organizer. The lessons learned from the study were: 1) Predictive noise calculation using formulae from International standard SIST ISO 9613-2: 1997 is not an appropriate method to predict noise emissions of planned projects since due to complexity of procedure they are not used strictly, 2) The noise measurements are important tools to minimize noise assessment errors of planned projects and should be in cases of predictive noise modelling performed at least for validation of acoustic model, 3) National guidelines should be made on the appropriate data, methods, noise source digitalization, validation of acoustic model etc. in order to unify the predictive noise models and their results in scope of Environmental Impact Assessments for planned projects.

Keywords: environmental noise assessment, predictive noise modelling, spatial planning, noise measurements, national guidelines

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3325 [Keynote Speech]: Feature Selection and Predictive Modeling of Housing Data Using Random Forest

Authors: Bharatendra Rai

Abstract:

Predictive data analysis and modeling involving machine learning techniques become challenging in presence of too many explanatory variables or features. Presence of too many features in machine learning is known to not only cause algorithms to slow down, but they can also lead to decrease in model prediction accuracy. This study involves housing dataset with 79 quantitative and qualitative features that describe various aspects people consider while buying a new house. Boruta algorithm that supports feature selection using a wrapper approach build around random forest is used in this study. This feature selection process leads to 49 confirmed features which are then used for developing predictive random forest models. The study also explores five different data partitioning ratios and their impact on model accuracy are captured using coefficient of determination (r-square) and root mean square error (rsme).

Keywords: housing data, feature selection, random forest, Boruta algorithm, root mean square error

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3324 Predictive Models of Ruin Probability in Retirement Withdrawal Strategies

Authors: Yuanjin Liu

Abstract:

Retirement withdrawal strategies are very important to minimize the probability of ruin in retirement. The ruin probability is modeled as a function of initial withdrawal age, gender, asset allocation, inflation rate, and initial withdrawal rate. The ruin probability is obtained based on the 2019 period life table for the Social Security, IRS Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) Worksheets, US historical bond and equity returns, and inflation rates using simulation. Several popular machine learning algorithms of the generalized additive model, random forest, support vector machine, extreme gradient boosting, and artificial neural network are built. The model validation and selection are based on the test errors using hyperparameter tuning and train-test split. The optimal model is recommended for retirees to monitor the ruin probability. The optimal withdrawal strategy can be obtained based on the optimal predictive model.

Keywords: ruin probability, retirement withdrawal strategies, predictive models, optimal model

Procedia PDF Downloads 40