Search results for: model predictive control (MPC)

Authors: Suchitra Chnadrashekhar

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Earlier looked as a support function in an organization information technology has now become a critical utility to manage their daily operations. Organizations are processing huge amount of data which was unimaginable few decades before. This has opened the opportunity for IT sector to help industries across domains to handle the data in the most intelligent manner. Presence of IT has been a leverage for the Oil & Gas industry to store, manage and process the data in most efficient way possible thus deriving the economic value in their day-to-day operations. Proper synchronization between Operational data system and Information Technology system is the need of the hour. Predictive analytics supports oil and gas companies by addressing the challenge of critical equipment performance, life cycle, integrity, security, and increase their utilization. Predictive analytics go beyond early warning by providing insights into the roots of problems. To reach their full potential, oil and gas companies need to take a holistic or systems approach towards asset optimization and thus have the functional information at all levels of the organization in order to make the right decisions. This paper discusses how the use of predictive analysis in oil and gas industry is redefining the dynamics of this sector. Also, the paper will be supported by real time data and evaluation of the data for a given oil production asset on an application tool, SAS. The reason for using SAS as an application for our analysis is that SAS provides an analytics-based framework to improve uptimes, performance and availability of crucial assets while reducing the amount of unscheduled maintenance, thus minimizing maintenance-related costs and operation disruptions. With state-of-the-art analytics and reporting, we can predict maintenance problems before they happen and determine root causes in order to update processes for future prevention.

Keywords: hydrocarbon, information technology, SAS, predictive analytics

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Authors: Yuanhao Gao, Ping Lin, Kees Weijer

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An optimal control system model is proposed for the cell flow in the process of chick embryo gastrulation in this paper. The target is to determine the cellular interaction forces which are hard to measure. This paper will take an approach to investigate the forces with the idea of the inverse problem. By choosing the forces as the control variable and regarding the cell flow as Stokes fluid, an objective functional will be established to match the numerical result of cell velocity with the experimental data. So that the forces could be determined by minimizing the objective functional. The Lagrange multiplier method is utilized to derive the state and adjoint equations consisting the optimal control system, which specifies the first-order necessary conditions. Finite element method is used to discretize and approximate equations. A conjugate gradient algorithm is given for solving the minimum solution of the system and determine the forces.

Keywords: optimal control model, Stokes equation, conjugate gradient method, finite element method, chick embryo gastrulation

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Authors: Shiuh-Jer Huang, Su-Shean Chen, Sheam-Chyun Lin

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Two-wheel inverted pendulum robot (TWIPR) is designed with two-hub DC motors for human riding and motion control evaluation. In order to measure the tilt angle and angular velocity of the inverted pendulum robot, accelerometer and gyroscope sensors are chosen. The mobile robot’s moving position and velocity were estimated based on DC motor built in hall sensors. The control kernel of this electric mobile robot is designed with embedded Arduino Nano microprocessor. A handle bar was designed to work as steering mechanism. The intelligent model-free fuzzy sliding mode control (FSMC) was employed as the main control algorithm for this mobile robot motion monitoring with different control purpose adjustment. The intelligent controllers were designed for balance control, and moving speed control purposes of this robot under different operation conditions and the control performance were evaluated based on experimental results.

Keywords: balance control, speed control, intelligent controller, two wheel inverted pendulum

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Authors: Nagini Sabbineni, Rajini T. V. Kanth, B. V. Kiranmayee

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India’s economy primarily depends on agriculture yield growth and their allied agro industry products. The agriculture yield prediction is the toughest task for agricultural departments across the globe. The agriculture yield depends on various factors. Particularly countries like India, majority of agriculture growth depends on rain water, which is highly unpredictable. Agriculture growth depends on different parameters, namely Water, Nitrogen, Weather, Soil characteristics, Crop rotation, Soil moisture, Surface temperature and Rain water etc. In our paper, lot of Explorative Data Analysis is done and various predictive models were designed. Further various regression models like Linear, Multiple Linear, Non-linear models are tested for the effective prediction or the forecast of the agriculture yield for various crops in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana states.

Keywords: agriculture yield growth, agriculture yield prediction, explorative data analysis, predictive models, regression models

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Authors: Panaya Sudta, Wanchalerm Patanacharoenwong, Prachya Bumrungkun

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As With the evolution of smart grids, ensuring the reliability and efficiency of electrical systems in smart cities has become crucial. This paper proposes a distinct approach that combines advanced machine learning techniques to accurately predict electrical failures and address voltage reliability issues. This approach aims to improve the accuracy and efficiency of reliability evaluations in smart cities. The aim of this research is to develop a comprehensive predictive model that accurately predicts electrical failures and voltage reliability in smart cities. This model integrates RFM analysis, K-means clustering, and LSTM networks to achieve this objective. The research utilizes RFM analysis, traditionally used in customer value assessment, to categorize and analyze electrical components based on their failure recency, frequency, and monetary impact. K-means clustering is employed to segment electrical components into distinct groups with similar characteristics and failure patterns. LSTM networks are used to capture the temporal dependencies and patterns in customer data. This integration of RFM, K-means, and LSTM results in a robust predictive tool for electrical failures and voltage reliability. The proposed model has been tested and validated on diverse electrical utility datasets. The results show a significant improvement in prediction accuracy and reliability compared to traditional methods, achieving an accuracy of 92.78% and an F1-score of 0.83. This research contributes to the proactive maintenance and optimization of electrical infrastructures in smart cities. It also enhances overall energy management and sustainability. The integration of advanced machine learning techniques in the predictive model demonstrates the potential for transforming the landscape of electrical system management within smart cities. The research utilizes diverse electrical utility datasets to develop and validate the predictive model. RFM analysis, K-means clustering, and LSTM networks are applied to these datasets to analyze and predict electrical failures and voltage reliability. The research addresses the question of how accurately electrical failures and voltage reliability can be predicted in smart cities. It also investigates the effectiveness of integrating RFM analysis, K-means clustering, and LSTM networks in achieving this goal. The proposed approach presents a distinct, efficient, and effective solution for predicting and mitigating electrical failures and voltage issues in smart cities. It significantly improves prediction accuracy and reliability compared to traditional methods. This advancement contributes to the proactive maintenance and optimization of electrical infrastructures, overall energy management, and sustainability in smart cities.

Keywords: electrical state prediction, smart grids, data-driven method, long short-term memory, RFM, k-means, machine learning

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Authors: Akram Khaleghei Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis, Leila Jafari

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In this paper, we present a new maintenance model for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model. A cost-optimal Bayesian control policy is developed for maintaining the system. The control problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm is developed and illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, multivariate Bayesian control

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Authors: M. Caramihai, Irina Severin

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This paper deals with the design of an intelligent control structure for a bioprocess of Hansenula polymorpha yeast cultivation. The objective of the process control is to produce biomass in a desired physiological state. The work demonstrates that the designed Hybrid Control Techniques (HCT) are able to recognize specific evolution bioprocess trajectories using neural networks trained specifically for this purpose, in order to estimate the model parameters and to adjust the overall bioprocess evolution through an expert system and a fuzzy structure. The design of the control algorithm as well as its tuning through realistic simulations is presented. Taking into consideration the synergism of different paradigms like fuzzy logic, neural network, and symbolic artificial intelligence (AI), in this paper we present a real and fulfilled intelligent control architecture with application in bioprocess control.

Keywords: bioprocess, intelligent control, neural nets, fuzzy structure, hybrid techniques

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Authors: Cherifi Mehdi, Lahdir Mourad, Ameur Soltane

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Image compression is used to reduce the number of bits required to represent an image. The Meteosat Second Generation satellite (MSG) allows the acquisition of 12 image files every 15 minutes. Which results a large databases sizes. The transform selected in the images compression should contribute to reduce the data representing the images. The Radon transform retrieves the Radon points that represent the sum of the pixels in a given angle for each direction. Linear predictive coding (LPC) with filtering provides a good decorrelation of Radon points using a Predictor constitute by the Symmetric Nearest Neighbor filter (SNN) coefficients, which result losses during decompression. Finally, Run Length Coding (RLC) gives us a high and fixed compression ratio regardless of the input image. In this paper, a novel image compression method based on the Radon transform and linear predictive coding (LPC) for MSG images is proposed. MSG image compression based on the Radon transform and the LPC provides a good compromise between compression and quality of reconstruction. A comparison of our method with other whose two based on DCT and one on DWT bi-orthogonal filtering is evaluated to show the power of the Radon transform in its resistibility against the quantization noise and to evaluate the performance of our method. Evaluation criteria like PSNR and the compression ratio allows showing the efficiency of our method of compression.

Keywords: image compression, radon transform, linear predictive coding (LPC), run lengthcoding (RLC), meteosat second generation (MSG)

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Authors: Kyoung-Jin Joo, In-Gun Kim, Hyun-Seok Hong, Dong-Woo Kang, Ju Lee

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Recently, the permanent magnet-assisted synchronous reluctance motor (PMa-SynRM) that can be substituted for the induction motor has been studying because of the needs of the development of the premium high efficiency motor for the minimum energy performance standard (MEPS). PMa-SynRM is required to the speed and position information for motor speed and torque controls. However, to apply the sensors has many problems that are sensor mounting space shortage and additional cost, etc. Therefore, in this paper, speed-sensorless control based on model reference adaptive system (MRAS) is introduced to eliminate the sensor. The sensorless method is constructed in a reference model as standard and an adaptive model as the state observer. The proposed algorithm is verified by the simulation.

Keywords: PMa-SynRM, sensorless control, robust estimation, MRAS method

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Authors: Mohamed Abdel-Monem, Gamal Sowilam, Omar Hegazy

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This paper presents a technical assessment of an electric vehicle with two independent rear-wheel motor and an improved traction control system. The electric differential and the control strategy have been implemented to assure that in a straight trajectory, the two rear-wheels run exactly at the same speed, considering the same/different road conditions under the left and right side of the wheels. In case of turning to right/left, the difference between the two rear-wheels speeds assures a vehicle trajectory without sliding, thanks to a harmony between the electric differential and the control strategy. The present article demonstrates a complete model and analysis of a traction control system, considering four different traction scenarios, for two independent rear-wheels motors for electric vehicles. Furthermore, the vehicle model, including wheel dynamics, load forces, electric differential, and control strategy, is designed and verified by using MATLAB/Simulink environment.

Keywords: electric vehicle, energy saving, multi-motor, electric differential, simulation and control

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Authors: Maamar Yahiaoui, Abdelrrahmene Kechich, Ismail Elkhallile Bousserhene

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This article presents a study in simulation by means of MATLAB/Simulink software of the nonlinear control in positioning of a linear synchronous machine with the esteemed force of load, to have effective control in the estimator in all tests the wished trajectory follows and the disturbance of load start. The results of simulation prove clearly that the control proposed can detect the reference of positioning the value estimates of load force equal to the actual value.

Keywords: mathematical model, Matlab, PMLSM, control, linearization, estimator, force, load, current

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Authors: Gwanghee Heo, Geonhyeok Bang, Chunggil Kim, Chinok Lee

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This paper attempts to develop a wireless feedback control system as a primary step eventually toward a bio-inspired structure system where inanimate structure behaves like a life form autonomously. It is a standalone wireless control system which is supposed to measure externally caused structural responses, analyze structural state from acquired data, and take its own action on the basis of the analysis with an embedded logic. For an experimental examination of its effectiveness, we applied it on a model of two-span bridge and performed a wireless control test. Experimental tests have been conducted for comparison on both the wireless and the wired system under the conditions of Un-control, Passive-off, Passive-on, and Lyapunov control algorithm. By proving the congruence of the test result of the wireless feedback control system with the wired control system, its control performance was proven to be effective. Besides, it was found to be economical in energy consumption and also autonomous by means of a command algorithm embedded into it, which proves its basic capacity as a bio-inspired system.

Keywords: structural vibration control, wireless system, MR damper, feedback control, embedded system

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Authors: Nafiseh Mollaei, Reihaneh Kardehi Moghaddam

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In case of Diabetes Mellitus the controlling of insulin is very difficult. This illness is an incurable disease affecting millions of people worldwide. Glucose is a sugar which provides energy to the cells. Insulin is a hormone which supports the absorption of glucose. Fuzzy control strategy is attractive for glucose control because it mimics the first and second phase responses that the pancreas beta cells use to control glucose. We propose two control algorithms a type-1 fuzzy controller and an interval type-2 fuzzy method for the insulin infusion. The closed loop system has been simulated for different patients with different parameters, in present of the food intake disturbance and it has been shown that the blood glucose concentrations at a normoglycemic level of 110 mg/dl in the reasonable amount of time. This paper deals with type 1 diabetes as a nonlinear model, which has been simulated in MATLAB-SIMULINK environment. The novel model, termed the Augmented Minimal Model is used in the simulations. There are some uncertainties in this model due to factors such as blood glucose, daily meals or sudden stress. In addition to eliminate the effects of uncertainty, different control methods may be utilized. In this article, fuzzy controller performance were assessed in terms of its ability to track a normoglycemic set point (110 mg/dl) in response to a [0-10] g meal disturbance. Finally, the development reported in this paper is supposed to simplify the insulin delivery, so increasing the quality of life of the patient.

Keywords: interval type-2, fuzzy controller, minimal augmented model, uncertainty

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Authors: Hyun-Woo Cho

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Detection of incipient abnormal events in production processes is important to improve safety and reliability of manufacturing operations and reduce losses caused by failures. The construction of calibration models for predicting faulty conditions is quite essential in making decisions on when to perform preventive maintenance. This paper presents a multivariate calibration monitoring approach based on the statistical analysis of process measurement data. The calibration model is used to predict faulty conditions from historical reference data. This approach utilizes variable selection techniques, and the predictive performance of several prediction methods are evaluated using real data. The results shows that the calibration model based on supervised probabilistic model yielded best performance in this work. By adopting a proper variable selection scheme in calibration models, the prediction performance can be improved by excluding non-informative variables from their model building steps.

Keywords: calibration model, monitoring, quality improvement, feature selection

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Authors: D. Maneetham, L. Sivhour

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Robotic arm manipulators are widely used to accomplish many kinds of tasks. SCORBOT-ER 4u is a 5-degree of freedom (DOF) vertical articulated educational robotic arm, and all joints are revolute. It is specifically designed to perform pick and place task with its gripper. The pick and place task consists of consideration of the end effector coordinate of the robotic arm and the desired position coordinate in its workspace. This paper describes about forward kinematics modeling and analysis of the robotic end effector motion through joint space. The kinematics problems are defined by the transformation from the Cartesian space to the joint space. Denavit-Hartenberg (D-H) model is used in order to model the robotic links and joints with 4x4 homogeneous matrix. The forward kinematics model is also developed and simulated in MATLAB. The mathematical model is validated by using robotic toolbox in MATLAB. By using this method, it may be applicable to get the end effector coordinate of this robotic arm and other similar types to this arm. The software development of SCORBOT-ER 4u is also described here. PC-and EtherCAT based control technology from BECKHOFF is used to control the arm to express the pick and place task.

Keywords: forward kinematics, D-H model, robotic toolbox, PC- and EtherCAT-based control

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Authors: Y. Mehdipour, S. Ebrahimi, A. Jahanpour, F. Seyedzaei, B. Sabayan, A. Karimi, H. Amirifard

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Ischemic stroke is one of the common reasons for disability and mortality. The fourth leading cause of death in the world and the third in some other sources. Only 1/3 of the patients with ischemic stroke fully recover, 1/3 of them end in permanent disability and 1/3 face death. Thus, the use of predictive models to predict stroke has a vital role in reducing the complications and costs related to this disease. Thus, the aim of this study was to specify the effective factors and predict ischemic stroke with the help of DM methods. The present study was a descriptive-analytic study. The population was 213 cases from among patients referring to Ali ibn Abi Talib (AS) Hospital in Zahedan. Data collection tool was a checklist with the validity and reliability confirmed. This study used DM algorithms of decision tree for modeling. Data analysis was performed using SPSS-19 and SPSS Modeler 14.2. The results of the comparison of algorithms showed that CHAID algorithm with 95.7% accuracy has the best performance. Moreover, based on the model created, factors such as anemia, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, transient ischemic attacks, coronary artery disease, and atherosclerosis are the most effective factors in stroke. Decision tree algorithms, especially CHAID algorithm, have acceptable precision and predictive ability to determine the factors affecting ischemic stroke. Thus, by creating predictive models through this algorithm, will play a significant role in decreasing the mortality and disability caused by ischemic stroke.

Keywords: data mining, ischemic stroke, decision tree, Bayesian network

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Authors: Shahin Mirshekari, Mohammadreza Moradi, Hossein Jafari, Mehdi Jafari, Mohammad Ensaf

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This research employs Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with an ensemble kernel, integrating Exponential Squared, Revised Matern, and Rational Quadratic kernels to analyze pharmaceutical sales data. Bayesian optimization was used to identify optimal kernel weights: 0.76 for Exponential Squared, 0.21 for Revised Matern, and 0.13 for Rational Quadratic. The ensemble kernel demonstrated superior performance in predictive accuracy, achieving an R² score near 1.0, and significantly lower values in MSE, MAE, and RMSE. These findings highlight the efficacy of ensemble kernels in GPR for predictive analytics in complex pharmaceutical sales datasets.

Keywords: Gaussian process regression, ensemble kernels, bayesian optimization, pharmaceutical sales analysis, time series forecasting, data analysis

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Authors: B. R. Raut

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The seismic performance of 20-storey benchmark building with semi-active dampers is investigated under various earthquake ground motions. The Semi-Active Variable Friction Dampers (SAVFD) and Magnetorheological Dampers (MR) are used in this study. A recently proposed predictive control algorithm is employed for SAVFD and a simple mechanical model based on a Bouc–Wen element with clipped optimal control algorithm is employed for MR damper. A parametric study is carried out to ascertain the optimum parameters of the semi-active controllers, which yields the minimum performance indices of controlled benchmark building. The effectiveness of dampers is studied in terms of the reduction in structural responses and performance criteria. To minimize the cost of the dampers, the optimal location of the damper, rather than providing the dampers at all floors, is also investigated. The semi-active dampers installed in benchmark building effectively reduces the earthquake-induced responses. Lesser number of dampers at appropriate locations also provides comparable response of benchmark building, thereby reducing cost of dampers significantly. The effectiveness of two semi-active devices in mitigating seismic responses is cross compared. Among two semi-active devices majority of the performance criteria of MR dampers are lower than SAVFD installed with benchmark building. Thus the performance of the MR dampers is far better than SAVFD in reducing displacement, drift, acceleration and base shear of mid to high-rise building against seismic forces.

Keywords: benchmark building, control strategy, input excitation, MR dampers, peak response, semi-active variable friction dampers

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Authors: Sakapas Saengchai

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This paper studied the participation of juvenile with driven of tobacco control in education institute: case study of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University is qualitative research has objective to study participation of juvenile with driven of tobacco control in University, as guidance of development participation of juvenile with driven of tobacco control in education institute the university is also free-cigarette university. There are qualitative researches on collection data of participation observation, in-depth interview of group conversation and agent of student in each faculty and college and exchange opinion of student. Result of study found that participation in tobacco control has 3 parts; 1) Participation in campaign of tobacco control, 2) Academic training and activity of free-cigarette of university and 3) As model of juvenile in tobacco control. For guidelines on youth involvement in driven tobacco control is universities should promote tobacco control activities. Reduce smoking campaign continues include a specific area for smokers has living room as sign clearly, staying in the faculty / college and developing network of model students who are non-smoking. This is a key role in the coordination of university students driving to the free cigarette university. Including the strengthening of community in the area and outside the area as good social and quality of country.

Keywords: participation, juvenile, tobacco control, institute

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Authors: James Ladzekpo

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Background: The urgent need to identify new pharmacological targets for diabetes treatment and prevention has been amplified by the disease's extensive impact on individuals and healthcare systems. A deeper insight into the biological underpinnings of diabetes is crucial for the creation of therapeutic strategies aimed at these biological processes. Current predictive models based on genetic variations fall short of accurately forecasting diabetes. Objectives: Our study aims to pinpoint key epigenetic factors that predispose individuals to diabetes. These factors will inform the development of an advanced predictive model that estimates diabetes risk from genetic profiles, utilizing state-of-the-art statistical and data mining methods. Methodology: We have implemented a recursive feature elimination with cross-validation using the support vector machine (SVM) approach for refined feature selection. Building on this, we developed six machine learning models, including logistic regression, k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN), Naive Bayes, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network, to evaluate their performance. Findings: The Gradient Boosting Classifier excelled, achieving a median recall of 92.17% and outstanding metrics such as area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) with a median of 68%, alongside median accuracy and precision scores of 76%. Through our machine learning analysis, we identified 31 genes significantly associated with diabetes traits, highlighting their potential as biomarkers and targets for diabetes management strategies. Conclusion: Particularly noteworthy were the Gradient Boosting Classifier and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network, which demonstrated potential in diabetes outcome prediction. We recommend future investigations to incorporate larger cohorts and a wider array of predictive variables to enhance the models' predictive capabilities.

Keywords: diabetes, machine learning, prediction, biomarkers

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Authors: Ce Liu, Wei Huo

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A nonlinear trajectory tracking controller for quadrotor helicopter based on controlled Lagrangian (CL) method is proposed in this paper. A Lagrangian system with virtual angles as generated coordinates rather than Euler angles is developed. Based on the model, the matching conditions presented by nonlinear partial differential equations are simplified and explicitly solved. Smooth tracking control laws and the range of control parameters are deduced based on the controlled energy of closed-loop system. Besides, a constraint condition for reference accelerations is deduced to identify the trackable reference trajectories by the proposed controller and to ensure the stability of the closed-loop system. The proposed method in this paper does not rely on the division of the quadrotor system, and the design of the control torques does not depend on the thrust as in backstepping or hierarchical control method. Simulations for a quadrotor model demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of the theoretical results.

Keywords: quadrotor, trajectory tracking control, controlled lagrangians, underactuated system

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Authors: Ibrahim M. Elmojtaba, Rayan M. Altayeb

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Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a vector-borne disease caused by the protozoa parasite of the genus leishmania. The transmission of the parasite to humans and animals occurs via the bite of adult female sandflies previously infected by biting and sucking blood of an infectious humans or animals. In this paper we use a previously proposed model, and then applied two optimal controls, namely treatment and vaccination to that model to investigate optimal strategies for controlling the spread of the disease using treatment and vaccination as the system control variables. The possible impact of using combinations of the two controls, either one at a time or two at a time on the spread of the disease is also examined. Our results provide a framework for vaccination and treatment strategies to reduce susceptible and infection individuals of VL in five years.

Keywords: visceral leishmaniasis, treatment, vaccination, optimal control, numerical simulation

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Authors: Cecile Edel, Sandrine Giscard D'Estaing, Elsa Labrune, Jacqueline Lornage, Mehdi Benchaib

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Introduction: The use of incubator equipped with time-lapse technology in Artificial Reproductive Technology (ART) allows a continuous surveillance. With morphocinetic parameters, algorithms are available to predict the potential outcome of an embryo. However, the different proposed time-lapse algorithms do not take account the missing data, and then some embryos could not be classified. The aim of this work is to construct a predictive model even in the case of missing data. Materials and methods: Patients: A retrospective study was performed, in biology laboratory of reproduction at the hospital ‘Femme Mère Enfant’ (Lyon, France) between 1 May 2013 and 30 April 2015. Embryos (n= 557) obtained from couples (n=108) were cultured in a time-lapse incubator (Embryoscope®, Vitrolife, Goteborg, Sweden). Time-lapse incubator: The morphocinetic parameters obtained during the three first days of embryo life were used to build the predictive model. Predictive model: A quadratic regression was performed between the number of cells and time. N = a. T² + b. T + c. N: number of cells at T time (T in hours). The regression coefficients were calculated with Excel software (Microsoft, Redmond, WA, USA), a program with Visual Basic for Application (VBA) (Microsoft) was written for this purpose. The quadratic equation was used to find a value that allows to predict the blastocyst formation: the synthetize value. The area under the curve (AUC) obtained from the ROC curve was used to appreciate the performance of the regression coefficients and the synthetize value. A cut-off value has been calculated for each regression coefficient and for the synthetize value to obtain two groups where the difference of blastocyst formation rate according to the cut-off values was maximal. The data were analyzed with SPSS (IBM, Il, Chicago, USA). Results: Among the 557 embryos, 79.7% had reached the blastocyst stage. The synthetize value corresponds to the value calculated with time value equal to 99, the highest AUC was then obtained. The AUC for regression coefficient ‘a’ was 0.648 (p < 0.001), 0.363 (p < 0.001) for the regression coefficient ‘b’, 0.633 (p < 0.001) for the regression coefficient ‘c’, and 0.659 (p < 0.001) for the synthetize value. The results are presented as follow: blastocyst formation rate under cut-off value versus blastocyst rate formation above cut-off value. For the regression coefficient ‘a’ the optimum cut-off value was -1.14.10-3 (61.3% versus 84.3%, p < 0.001), 0.26 for the regression coefficient ‘b’ (83.9% versus 63.1%, p < 0.001), -4.4 for the regression coefficient ‘c’ (62.2% versus 83.1%, p < 0.001) and 8.89 for the synthetize value (58.6% versus 85.0%, p < 0.001). Conclusion: This quadratic regression allows to predict the outcome of an embryo even in case of missing data. Three regression coefficients and a synthetize value could represent the identity card of an embryo. ‘a’ regression coefficient represents the acceleration of cells division, ‘b’ regression coefficient represents the speed of cell division. We could hypothesize that ‘c’ regression coefficient could represent the intrinsic potential of an embryo. This intrinsic potential could be dependent from oocyte originating the embryo. These hypotheses should be confirmed by studies analyzing relationship between regression coefficients and ART parameters.

Keywords: ART procedure, blastocyst formation, time-lapse incubator, quadratic model

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Authors: Jayanta Kumar Ghosh, Swastik Sunil Goriwale, Himangshu Sarkar

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Groundwater is one of the most valuable natural resources that society consumes for its domestic, industrial, and agricultural water supply. Its bulk and indiscriminate consumption affects the groundwater resource. Often, it has been found that the groundwater recharge rate is much lower than its demand. Thus, to maintain water and food security, it is necessary to monitor and management of groundwater storage. However, it is challenging to estimate groundwater storage (GWS) by making use of existing hydrological models. To overcome the difficulties, machine learning (ML) models are being introduced for the evaluation of groundwater level (GWL). Thus, the objective of this research work is to develop an ML-based model for the prediction of GWL. This objective has been realized through the development of an artificial neural network (ANN) model based on hydro-gravimetry. The model has been developed using training samples from field observations spread over 8 months. The developed model has been tested for the prediction of GWL in an observation well. The root means square error (RMSE) for the test samples has been found to be 0.390 meters. Thus, it can be concluded that the hydro-gravimetric-based ANN model can be used for the prediction of GWL. However, to improve the accuracy, more hydro-gravimetric parameter/s may be considered and tested in future.

Keywords: machine learning, hydro-gravimetry, ground water level, predictive model

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Authors: E. Vlachopapadopoulou, E. Dikaiakou, E. Anagnostou, I. Panagiotopoulos, E. Kaloumenou, M. Kafetzi, A. Fotinou, S. Michalacos

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Aim: To investigate the relation and impact of Body Mass Index (BMI), Waist Circumference (WC) and Body Fat Weight (BFW) on insulin resistance (MATSUDA INDEX < 2.5) in children and adolescents. Methods: Data from 95 overweight and obese children (47 boys and 48 girls) with mean age 10.7 ± 2.2 years were analyzed. ROC analysis was used to investigate the predictive ability of BMI, WC and BFW for insulin resistance and find the optimal cut-offs. The overall performance of the ROC analysis was quantified by computing area under the curve (AUC). Results: ROC curve analysis indicated that the optimal-cut off of WC for the prediction of insulin resistance was 97 cm with sensitivity equal to 75% and specificity equal to 73.1%. AUC was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.63-0.92, p=0.001). The sensitivity and specificity of obesity for the discrimination of participants with insulin resistance from those without insulin resistance were equal to 58.3% and 75%, respectively (AUC=0.67). BFW had a borderline predictive ability for insulin resistance (AUC=0.58, 95% CI: 0.43-0.74, p=0.101). The predictive ability of WC was equivalent with the correspondence predictive ability of BMI (p=0.891). Obese subjects had 4.2 times greater odds for having insulin resistance (95% CI: 1.71-10.30, p < 0.001), while subjects with WC more than 97 had 8.1 times greater odds for having insulin resistance (95% CI: 2.14-30.86, p=0.002). Conclusion: BMI and WC are important clinical factors that have significant clinical relation with insulin resistance in children and adolescents. The cut off of 97 cm for WC can identify children with greater likelihood for insulin resistance.

Keywords: body fat weight, body mass index, insulin resistance, obese children, waist circumference

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Authors: Nikki Berrange, Gizelle Willows

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Business rescue has become increasingly popular since its inclusion in the Companies Act of South Africa in May 2011. The Alternate Exchange (AltX) of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange has experienced a marked increase in the number of companies entering business rescue. This study sampled twenty companies listed on the AltX to determine whether Altman’s Z-score model for emerging markets (ZEM) or Taffler’s Z-score model is a more accurate model in predicting financial distress for small to medium size companies in South Africa. The study was performed over three different time horizons; one, two and three years prior to the event of financial distress, in order to determine how many companies each model predicted would be unlikely to succeed as well as the predictive ability and accuracy of the respective models. The study found that Taffler’s Z-score model had a greater ability at predicting financial distress from all three-time horizons.

Keywords: Altman’s ZEM-score, Altman’s Z-score, AltX, business rescue, Taffler’s Z-score

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Authors: Benchalak Muangmeesri

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to discuss how to test the best control performance of a ceramics. Hydraulic press machine (HPM) is the most common shaping of advanced ceramic with products, dimensions, and ceramic products mainly from synthetic powders. A microcontroller can be achieved to control process and has set high standards in the shaping of raw materials in powder form. HPM was proposed to develop a position control system that linked to the embedded controller PIC16F877 via Proportional and Derivative (PD) controller. The model is performed using MATLAB/SIMULINK and the best control performance of an HPM. Finally, PD controller results, showing the best performance as it had the smallest overshoot and highest quality using a microcontroller control.

Keywords: ceramics, hydraulic press, microcontroller, PD controller

Procedia PDF Downloads 323

Authors: S. Yaman, S. Rostami

Abstract:

In this study, a black box modeling of the coupled-tank system is obtained by using fuzzy sets. The derived model is tested via adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). In order to achieve a better control performance, the parameters of three different controller types, classical proportional integral controller (PID), fuzzy PID and function tuner method, are tuned by one of the evolutionary computation method, genetic algorithm. All tuned controllers are applied to the fuzzy model of the coupled-tank experimental setup and analyzed under the different reference input values. According to the results, it is seen that function tuner method demonstrates better robust control performance and guarantees the closed loop stability.

Keywords: function tuner method (FTM), fuzzy modeling, fuzzy PID controller, genetic algorithm (GA)

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Authors: Fangfang Wang, Fan Qu

Abstract:

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), the most common endocrinopathy among women of reproductive age, is characterized by ovarian dysfunction, hyperandrogenism and reduced fecundity. The aim of this study is to investigate whether the circadian disruption is involved in pathogenesis of PCOS in androgen-induced animal model. We established a rat model of PCOS using single subcutaneous injection with testosterone propionate on the ninth day after birth, and confirmed their PCOS-like phenotypes with vaginal smears, ovarian hematoxylin and eosin (HE) staining and serum androgen measurement. The control group rats received the vehicle only. Gene expression was detected by real-time quantitative PCR. (1) Compared with control group, PCOS model rats of 10-week group showed persistently keratinized vaginal cells, while all the control rats showed at least two consecutive estrous cycles. (2) Ovarian HE staining and histological examination showed that PCOS model rats of 10-week group presented many cystic follicles with decreased numbers of granulosa cells and corpora lutea in their ovaries, while the control rats had follicles with normal layers of granulosa cells at various stages of development and several generations of corpora lutea. (3) In the 10-week group, serum free androgen index was notably higher in PCOS model rats than controls. (4) Disturbed mRNA expression patterns of core clock genes were found in ovaries of PCOS model rats of 10-week group. Abnormal expression of key genes associated with circadian rhythm in ovary may be one of the mechanisms for ovarian dysfunction in PCOS model rats induced by androgen.

Keywords: polycystic ovary syndrome, androgen, animal model, circadian disruption

Procedia PDF Downloads 197

Authors: Adil Balla Elkrail

Abstract:

Visual MODFLOW computer codes were selected to simulate head distribution, calculate the groundwater budgets of the area, and evaluate the effect of external stresses on the groundwater head and to demonstrate how the groundwater model can be used as a comparative technique in order to optimize utilization of the groundwater resource. A conceptual model of the study area, aquifer parameters, boundary, and initial conditions were used to simulate the flow model. The trial-and-error technique was used to calibrate the model. The most important criteria used to check the calibrated model were Root Mean Square error (RMS), Mean Absolute error (AM), Normalized Root Mean Square error (NRMS) and mass balance. The maps of the simulated heads elaborated acceptable model calibration compared to observed heads map. A time length of eight years and the observed heads of the year 2004 were used for model prediction. The predictive simulation showed that the continuation of pumping will cause relatively high changes in head distribution and components of groundwater budget whereas, the low deficit computed (7122 m3/d) between inflows and outflows cannot create a significant drawdown of the potentiometric level. Hence, the area under consideration may represent a high permeability and productive zone and strongly recommended for further groundwater development.

Keywords: aquifers, model simulation, groundwater, calibrations, trail-and- error, prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 208