Search results for: loss models

Authors: Okezie A. Ihugba

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The bounds testing ARDL (2, 2, 2, 2, 0) technique to cointegration was used in this study to investigate the effect of energy consumption and energy loss on Nigeria's manufacturing sector from 1981 to 2020. The model was created to determine the relationship between these three variables while also accounting for interactions with control variables such as inflation and commercial bank loans to the manufacturing sector. When the dependent variables are energy consumption and energy loss, the bounds tests show that the variables of interest are bound together in the long run. Because electricity consumption is a critical factor in determining manufacturing value-added in Nigeria, some intriguing observations were made. According to the findings, the relationship between LELC and LMVA is statistically significant. According to the findings, electricity consumption reduces manufacturing value-added. The target variable (energy loss) is statistically significant and has a positive sign. In Nigeria, a 1% reduction in energy loss increases manufacturing value-added by 36% in the first lag and 35% in the second. According to the study, the government should speed up the ongoing renovation of existing power plants across the country, as well as the construction of new gas-fired power plants. This will address a number of issues, including overpricing of electricity as a result of grid failure.

Keywords: L60, Q43, H81, C52, E31, ARDL, cointegration, Nigeria's manufacturing

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Authors: Harsh Agarwal, Pratikkumar Patel, Maharshi Pathak

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Recently the low prices of Crude oil and increase in strict environmental regulations limit limits the use of diesel based muds as these muds are relatively costlier and toxic, as a result disposal of cuttings into the eco-system is a major issue faced by the drilling industries. To overcome these issues faced by the Oil Industry, an attempt has been made to develop oil-in-water emulsion mud system using nettlespurge oil. Nettlespurge oil could be easily available and its cost is around ₹30/litre which is about half the price of diesel in India. Oil-based mud (OBM) was formulated with Nettlespurge oil extracted from Nettlespurge seeds using the Soxhlet extraction method. The formulated nettlespurge oil mud properties were analysed with diesel oil mud properties. The compared properties were rheological properties, yield point and gel strength, and mud density and filtration loss properties, fluid loss and filter cake. The mud density measurement showed that nettlespurge OBM was slightly higher than diesel OBM with mud density values of 9.175 lb/gal and 8.5 lb/gal, respectively, at barite content of 70 g. Thus it has a higher lubricating property. Additionally, the filtration loss test results showed that nettlespurge mud fluid loss volumes, oil was 11 ml, compared to diesel oil mud volume of 15 ml. The filtration loss test indicated that the nettlespurge oil mud with filter cake thickness of 2.2 mm had a cake characteristic of thin and squashy while the diesel oil mud resulted in filter cake thickness of 2.7 mm with cake characteristic of tenacious, rubbery and resilient. The filtration loss test results showed that nettlespurge oil mud fluid loss volumes was much less than the diesel based oil mud. The filtration loss test indicated that the nettlespurge oil mud filter cake thickness less than the diesel oil mud filter cake thickness. So Low formation damage and the emulsion stability effect was analysed with this experiment. The nettlespurge oil-in-water mud system had lower coefficient of friction than the diesel oil based mud system. All the rheological properties have shown better results relative to the diesel based oil mud. Therefore, with all the above mentioned factors and with the data of the conducted experiment we could conclude that the Nettlespurge oil based mud is economically and well as eco-logically much more feasible than the worn out and shabby diesel-based oil mud in the Drilling Industry.

Keywords: economical feasible, ecological feasible, emulsion stability, nettle spurge oil, rheological properties, soxhlet extraction method

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Authors: Francesco Pandolfi, Georgios Baltzopoulos, Iunio Iervolino

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The impact of extreme winds on industrial assets and the built environment is gaining increasing attention from stakeholders, including the corporate insurance industry. This has led to a progressively more in-depth study of building vulnerability and fragility to wind. Wind vulnerability models are used in probabilistic risk assessment to relate a loss metric to an intensity measure of the natural event, usually a gust or a mean wind speed. In fact, vulnerability models can be integrated with the wind hazard, which consists of associating a probability to each intensity level in a time interval (e.g., by means of return periods) to provide an assessment of future losses due to extreme wind. This has also given impulse to the world- and regional-scale wind hazard studies.Another approach often adopted for the probabilistic description of building vulnerability to the wind is the use of fragility functions, which provide the conditional probability that selected building components will exceed certain damage states, given wind intensity. In fact, in wind engineering literature, it is more common to find structural system- or component-level fragility functions rather than wind vulnerability models for an entire building. Loss assessment based on component fragilities requires some logical combination rules that define the building’s damage state given the damage state of each component and the availability of a consequence model that provides the losses associated with each damage state. When risk calculations are based on numerical simulation of a structure’s behavior during extreme wind scenarios, the interaction of component fragilities is intertwined with the computational procedure. However, simulation-based approaches are usually computationally demanding and case-specific. In this context, the present work introduces the ExtReMe wind risk assESsment prototype Software, ERMESS, which is being developed at the University of Naples Federico II. ERMESS is a wind risk assessment tool for insurance applications to industrial facilities, collecting a wide assortment of available wind vulnerability models and fragility functions to facilitate their incorporation into risk calculations based on in-built or user-defined wind hazard data. This software implements an alternative method for building-specific risk assessment based on existing component-level fragility functions and on a number of simplifying assumptions for their interactions. The applicability of this alternative procedure is explored by means of an illustrative proof-of-concept example, which considers four main building components, namely: the roof covering, roof structure, envelope wall and envelope openings. The application shows that, despite the simplifying assumptions, the procedure can yield risk evaluations that are comparable to those obtained via more rigorous building-level simulation-based methods, at least in the considered example. The advantage of this approach is shown to lie in the fact that a database of building component fragility curves can be put to use for the development of new wind vulnerability models to cover building typologies not yet adequately covered by existing works and whose rigorous development is usually beyond the budget of portfolio-related industrial applications.

Keywords: component wind fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, vulnerability model, wind-induced losses

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Authors: Givi Kupatadze

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Backward economies are facing a challenge of achieving sustainable high economic growth rate. Dominant growth models represent a roadmap in framing economic development strategy. This paper examines a relevance of the dominant growth models for backward economies. Cobb-Douglas production function, the Harrod-Domar model of economic growth, the Solow growth model and general formula of gross domestic product are examined to undertake a comprehensive study of the dominant growth models. Deductive research method allows to uncover major weaknesses of the dominant growth models and to come up with practical implications for economic development strategy. The key finding of the paper shows, contrary to what used to be taught by textbooks of economics, that constant returns to scale property of the dominant growth models are a mere coincidence and its generalization over space and time can be regarded as one of the most unfortunate mistakes in the whole field of political economy. The major suggestion of the paper for backward economies is that understanding and considering taxonomy of economic activities based on increasing and diminishing returns to scale represent a cornerstone of successful economic development strategy.

Keywords: backward economies, constant returns to scale, dominant growth models, taxonomy of economic activities

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Authors: Sarah Beaver, Renee Bryce

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Audiograms detect hearing impairment, but missing values pose problems. This work explores imputations in an attempt to improve accuracy. This work implements Linear Regression, Lasso, Linear Support Vector Regression, Bayesian Ridge, K Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Random Forest machine learning techniques to impute audiogram frequencies ranging from 125Hz to 8000Hz. The data contains patients who had or were candidates for cochlear implants. Accuracy is compared across two different Nested Cross-Validation k values. Over 4000 audiograms were used from 800 unique patients. Additionally, training on data combines and compares left and right ear audiograms versus single ear side audiograms. The accuracy achieved using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values for the best models for Random Forest ranges from 4.74 to 6.37. The R\textsuperscript{2} values for the best models for Random Forest ranges from .91 to .96. The accuracy achieved using RMSE values for the best models for KNN ranges from 5.00 to 7.72. The R\textsuperscript{2} values for the best models for KNN ranges from .89 to .95. The best imputation models received R\textsuperscript{2} between .89 to .96 and RMSE values less than 8dB. We also show that the accuracy of classification predictive models performed better with our best imputation models versus constant imputations by a two percent increase.

Keywords: machine learning, audiograms, data imputations, single imputations

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Authors: R. K. Dubey

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Bianchi type cosmological models have been studied on the basis of Lyra’s geometry. Exact solution has been obtained by considering a time dependent displacement field for constant deceleration parameter and varying cosmological term of the universe. The physical behavior of the different models has been examined for different cases.

Keywords: Bianchi type-I cosmological model, variable gravitational coupling, cosmological constant term, Lyra's model

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Authors: Huimin Zhao, Xiaoquan Liu, Haochen Liu

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The major challenge facing Alzheimer's Disease (AD) drug development is how to effectively improve cognitive function in clinical practice. Growing evidence indicates that stimulating hippocampal neurogenesis is a strategy for restoring cognition in animal models of AD. The mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathway is a crucial factor in neurogenesis, which is negatively regulated by Dual-specificity phosphatase 16 (DUSP16). Transcriptome analysis of post-mortem brain tissue revealed up-regulation of DUSP16 expression in AD patients. Additionally, DUSP16 was involved in regulating the proliferation and neural differentiation of neural progenitor cells (NPCs). Nevertheless, whether the effect of DUSP16 on ameliorating cognitive disorders by influencing NPCs differentiation in AD mice remains unclear. Our study demonstrates an association between DUSP16 SNPs and clinical progression in individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Besides, we found that increased DUSP16 expression in both 3×Tg and SAMP8 models of AD led to NPC differentiation impairments. By silencing DUSP16, cognitive benefits, the induction of AHN and synaptic plasticity, were observed in AD mice. Furthermore, we found that DUSP16 is involved in the process of NPC differentiation by regulating c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) phosphorylation. Moreover, the increased DUSP16 may be regulated by the ETS transcription factor (ELK1), which binds to the promoter region of DUSP16. Loss of ELK1 resulted in decreased DUSP16 mRNA and protein levels. Our data uncover a potential regulatory role for DUSP16 in adult hippocampal neurogenesis and provide a possibility to find the target of AD intervention.

Keywords: alzheimer's disease, cognitive function, DUSP16, hippocampal neurogenesis

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Authors: Dawit Dibekulu, Tesfaye Dagnew, Tesfamaryam G. Meskel

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Echoing with memories of loss and whispers of despair, this study delves into the poignant world of melancholy in Sisay Nigusu's contemporary Amharic novel, ‘Yäqənat Zār’ (‘Zār of Jealousy’). Employing a psychoanalytic lens focused on Freud and Klein's theories of mourning and melancholia, we explore the psychological depths of characters ravaged by grief. Through an interpretive paradigm and descriptive research design, we unpack the intricate tapestry of the novel, revealing how love's ashes morph into melancholic despair. The loss of loved ones, be it sudden death or betrayal, casts long shadows on the characters' souls, distorting their behavior and twisting their narratives. Altered thoughts, self-blame, and paralyzing yearning become their companions, weaving a tragic dance of longing and despair. ‘Yäqənat Zār’ serves as a powerful testament to the transformative power of storytelling, allowing us to navigate the labyrinthine paths of melancholia and gain a glimpse into the Ethiopian soul grappling with loss. This study not only sheds light on the individual's struggle with sadness but also illuminates the cultural fabric of grief and melancholia intricately woven into Ethiopian society.

Keywords: melancholy, loss, psychoanalysis, grief, identity

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Authors: Bale Baidi Blaise, Gilles Marckmann, Liman Kaoye, Talaka Dya, Moustapha Bachirou, Gambo Betchewe, Tibi Beda

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This work highlights the capabilities of particles swarm optimization (PSO) method to identify parameters of hyperelastic models. The study compares this method with Genetic Algorithm (GA) method, Least Squares (LS) method, Pattern Search Algorithm (PSA) method, Beda-Chevalier (BC) method and the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) method. Four classic hyperelastic models are used to test the different methods through parameters identification. Then, the study compares the ability of these models to reproduce experimental Treloar data in simple tension, biaxial tension and pure shear.

Keywords: particle swarm optimization, identification, hyperelastic, model

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Authors: Adeep Hande, Shubham Agarwal

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This paper presents a study on identifying sexism in online texts using various state-of-the-art deep learning models based on BERT. We experimented with different feature sets and model architectures and evaluated their performance using precision, recall, F1 score, and accuracy metrics. We also explored the use of pseudolabeling technique to improve model performance. Our experiments show that the best-performing models were based on BERT, and their multilingual model achieved an F1 score of 0.83. Furthermore, the use of pseudolabeling significantly improved the performance of the BERT-based models, with the best results achieved using the pseudolabeling technique. Our findings suggest that BERT-based models with pseudolabeling hold great promise for identifying sexism in online texts with high accuracy.

Keywords: large language models, semi-supervised learning, sexism detection, data sparsity

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Authors: Maier Dorin, Maier Andreea

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Today, any organization - regardless of the specific activity - must be prepared to face continuous radical changes, innovation thus becoming a condition of survival in a globalized market. Not all managers have an overall view on the real size of necessary innovation potential. Unfortunately there is still no common (and correct) understanding of the term of innovation among managers. Moreover, not all managers are aware of the need for innovation. This article highlights and analyzes a series of models of innovation processes and their evolution. The models analyzed encompass both the strategic level and the operational one within an organization, indicating performance innovation on each landing. As the literature review shows, there are no easy answers to the innovation process as there are no shortcuts to great results. Successful companies do not have a silver innovative bullet - they do not get results by making one or few things better than others, they make everything better.

Keywords: innovation, innovation process, business success, models of innovation

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Authors: Tejush Badal, Sanaa Alwidian

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Class diagrams are useful tools within the Unified Modelling Language (UML) to model and visualize the relationships between, and properties of objects within a system. As a system evolves over time and space (e.g., products), a series of models with several commonalities and variabilities create what is known as a model family. In circumstances where there are several versions of a model, examining each model individually, becomes expensive in terms of computation resources. To avoid performing redundant operations, this paper proposes an approach for representing a family of class diagrams into Union Models to represent model families using a single generic model. The paper aims to analyze and reason about a family of class diagrams using union models as opposed to individual analysis of each member model in the family. The union algorithm provides a holistic view of the model family, where the latter cannot be otherwise obtained from an individual analysis approach, this in turn, enhances the analysis performed in terms of speeding up the time needed to analyze a family of models together as opposed to analyzing individual models, one model at a time.

Keywords: analysis, class diagram, model family, unified modeling language, union model

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Authors: James Alberto Ortega Morales, Nelson Andrés Martínez Marín

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The bulding industry is one of the most important sectors all around the world in terms of contribution to index like GDP and labor. On the other hand, it is a major contributor to Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and waste generation contributing to global warming. In this sense, it is necessary to establish sustainable practices both from the strategic point of view to the operations point of view as well in all business and industries. Business models don’t scape to this reality attending it´s mediator role between strategy and operations. Business models can turn from the traditional practices searching economic benefits to sustainable bussines models that generate both economic value and value for society and the environment. Recent advances in the analysis of sustainable business models find different classifications that allow finding potential triple bottom line (economic, social and environmental) solutions applicable in every business sector. Into the metioned Advances have been identified, 11 groups and 45 patterns of sustainable business models have been identified; such patterns can be found either in the business models as a whole or found concurrently in their components. This article presents the analysis of a case study, seeking to identify the components and elements that are part of it, using the ECO CANVAS conceptual model. The case study allows showing the concurrent existence of different patterns of business models for sustainability empirically, serving as an example and inspiration for other Latin American companies interested in integrating sustainability into their new and existing business models.

Keywords: sustainable business models, business sustainability, business model patterns, case study, construction industry

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Authors: Nop Sopipan

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In this paper, we forecast the volatility of Baht/USDs using Markov Regime Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) models. These models allow volatility to have different dynamics according to unobserved regime variables. The main purpose of this paper is to find out whether MRS-GARCH models are an improvement on the GARCH type models in terms of modeling and forecasting Baht/USD volatility. The MRS-GARCH is the best performance model for Baht/USD volatility in short term but the GARCH model is best perform for long term.

Keywords: volatility, Markov Regime Switching, forecasting, Baht/USD

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Authors: Eny Suastuti

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This paper is about state’s capital equity in establishing State-owned Company (PT Merpati Persero). Under private law regime, PT Merpati Persero equity is a state asset allocated separately from the State Budget. Consequently, it is no longer a state asset; rather, it becomes a part of company assets. The adoption of Act No. 17 of 2003 on State Finance, Act No. 31 of 1999, which is amended by Act No. 20 of 2001 on Eradication of Corrupt Practices, Act No. 15 of 2004 on Auditing, Management, and Accountability of State Finance, and Act No. 15 of 2006 Audit Board raises legal issues of whether State-owned Company’s (PT Merpati Persero) loss may be deemed as loss on state finance made by the Directors of PT Merpati Persero, which implication leads to corrupt practices conducted by the Directors. The principle of civil law states that state assets are separated from the state budget is not a government asset. Therefore the case of a lease agreement 2 (two) units of Boeing 737-400 and Boeing 737-500 between PT Merpati Nusantara Airlines with companies Third Stone Aircraft Leasing Group (TALG) the United States cannot be prosecuted under Articles 2 and 3 of Act No. 31 of 1999 Jo Act No. 20 of 2001 on Eradication of Corrupt Practices (Law PTPK). From this paper, three things are found. First, state’s capital equity, which has been allocated separately from state assets in establishing the PT Merpati Perserois not state asset; rather, it is company’s asset. Second, in the case of mismanagement leading to company loss, the Directors of PT Merpati Persero may not be charged with committing corrupt practice as prescribed in Articles 2 and 3 of Corrupt Practices Eradication Law. Third, misperception has been made by judicial practices since the courts consider loss in certain transaction made by Directors of PT Merpati Persero to be loss of state finance whose implication is applicability of Articles 2 and 3 of Corrupt Practices Eradication Law.

Keywords: corrupt practice, loss, state's capital equity, state finance (PT Merpati Persero)

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Authors: Ramin Mansouri

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The manhole is one of the types of structures that are installed at the site of change direction or change in the pipe diameter or sewage pipes as well as in step slope areas to reduce the flow velocity. In this study, the flow characteristics of hydraulic structures in a manhole structure have been investigated with a numerical model. In this research, the types of computational grid coarse, medium, and fines have been used for simulation. In order to simulate flow, k-ε model (standard, RNG, Realizable) and k-w model (standard SST) are used. Also, in order to find the best wall conditions, two types of standard and non-equilibrium wall functions were investigated. The turbulent model k-ε has the highest correlation with experimental results or all models. In terms of boundary conditions, constant speed is set for the flow input boundary, the output pressure is set in the boundaries which are in contact with the air, and the standard wall function is used for the effect of the wall function. In the numerical model, the depth at the output of the second manhole is estimated to be less than that of the laboratory and the output jet from the span. In the second regime, the jet flow collides with the manhole wall and divides into two parts, so hydraulic characteristics are the same as large vertical shaft hydraulic characteristics. In this situation, the turbulence is in a high range since it can be seen more energy loss in it. According to the results, energy loss in numerical is estimated at 9.359%, which is more than experimental data.

Keywords: manhole, energy, depreciation, turbulence model, wall function, flow

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Authors: Pyung Soo Kim

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This paper proposes an optimized reactive fast intermobility anchor point (MAP) handover scheme for Hierarchical Mobile IPv6, called the ORFH-HMIPv6, to minimize packet loss of the existing scheme. The key idea of the proposed ORFHHMIPv6 scheme is that the serving MAP buffers packets toward the mobile node (MN) as soon as the link layer between MN and serving base station is disconnected. To implement the proposed scheme, the MAP discovery message exchanged between MN and serving MAP is extended. In addition, the IEEE 802.21 Media Independent Handover Function (MIHF) event service message is defined newly. Through analytic performance evaluation, the proposed ORFH-HMIPv6 scheme can be shown to minimize packet loss much than the existing scheme.

Keywords: hierarchical mobile IPv6 (HMIPv6), fast handover, reactive behavior, packet loss

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Authors: Muhammmad Fawad

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The bridge construction industry has been revolutionized by the applications of Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR). In this article, the author has focused on the field applications of digital technologies in structural, especially in bridge engineering. This research analyzed the use of VR/AR for the assessment of bridge concepts. For this purpose, the author has used Cyber-Physical Devices, i.e., Oculus Quest (OQ) for the implementation of VR, Trimble Microsoft HoloLens (THL), and Trimble Site Vision (TSV) for the implementation of AR/MR by visualizing the models of bridge planned to be constructed in Poland. The visualization of the models in Extended Reality (XR) is based on the development of BIM models of the bridge, which are further uploaded to the platforms required to implement these models in XR. This research helped to implement the models in MR so a bridge with a 1:1 scale at the exact location was placed, and authorities were presented with the possibility to visualize the exact scale and location of the bridge before its construction.

Keywords: augmented reality, virtual reality, HoloLens, BIM, bridges

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Authors: Bernur Acikgoz

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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of public spending on economic growth and examine the sources of economic growth in developed countries since the 1990s. This paper analyses whether public spending effect on economic growth based on Cobb-Douglas Production Function with the two econometric models with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Dynamic Fixed Effect (DFE) for 21 developed countries (high-income OECD countries), over the period 1990-2013. Our models results are parallel to each other and the models support that public spending has an important role for economic growth. This result is accurate with theories and previous empirical studies.

Keywords: public spending, economic growth, panel data, ARDL models

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Authors: Gabriel Legorreta Paulin, Marcus I. Bursik, Lilia Arana Salinas, Fernando Aceves Quesada

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In volcanic environments, landslides and debris flows occur continually along stream systems of large stratovolcanoes. This is the case on Pico de Orizaba volcano, the highest mountain in Mexico. The volcano has a great potential to impact and damage human settlements and economic activities by landslides. People living along the lower valleys of Pico de Orizaba volcano are in continuous hazard by the coalescence of upstream landslide sediments that increased the destructive power of debris flows. These debris flows not only produce floods, but also cause the loss of lives and property. Although the importance of assessing such process, there is few landslide inventory maps and landslide susceptibility assessment. As a result in México, no landslide susceptibility models assessment has been conducted to evaluate advantage and disadvantage of models. In this study, a comprehensive study of landslide susceptibility models assessment using GIS technology is carried out on the SE flank of Pico de Orizaba volcano. A detailed multi-temporal landslide inventory map in the watershed is used as framework for the quantitative comparison of two landslide susceptibility maps. The maps are created based on 1) the Stability Index MAPping (SINMAP) model by using default geotechnical parameters and 2) by using findings of volcanic soils geotechnical proprieties obtained in the field. SINMAP combines the factor of safety derived from the infinite slope stability model with the theory of a hydrologic model to produce the susceptibility map. It has been claimed that SINMAP analysis is reasonably successful in defining areas that intuitively appear to be susceptible to landsliding in regions with sparse information. The validations of the resulting susceptibility maps are performed by comparing them with the inventory map under LOGISNET system which provides tools to compare by using a histogram and a contingency table. Results of the experiment allow for establishing how the individual models predict the landslide location, advantages, and limitations. The results also show that although the model tends to improve with the use of calibrated field data, the landslide susceptibility map does not perfectly represent existing landslides.

Keywords: GIS, landslide, modeling, LOGISNET, SINMAP

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Authors: Arin Ghazarian, Cyril Rakovski

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Differential privacy has become the leading technique to protect the privacy of individuals in a database while allowing useful analysis to be done and the results to be shared. It puts a guarantee on the amount of privacy loss in the worst-case scenario. Differential privacy is not a toggle between full privacy and zero privacy. It controls the tradeoff between the accuracy of the results and the privacy loss using a single key parameter called

Keywords: arrhythmia, cardiology, differential privacy, ECG, epsilon, medi-cal data, privacy preserving analytics, statistical databases

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Authors: Nasreen Basoudan, Andrea Tales, Frederic Boy

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Non-clinical anxiety may be comprised of state anxiety - temporarily experienced anxiety related to a specific situation, and trait anxiety - a longer lasting response or a general disposition to anxiety. While temporary and occasional anxiety whether as a mood state or personality dimension is normal, nonclinical anxiety may influence many more components of information processing than previously recognized. In ageing and dementia-related research, disease characterization now involves attempts to understand a much wider range of brain function such as loss of inhibitory control, as against the more common focus on memory and cognition. However, in many studies, the tendency has been to include individuals with clinical anxiety disorders while excluding persons with lower levels of state or trait anxiety. Loss of inhibitory cognitive control can lead to behaviors such as aggression, reduced sensitivity to others, sociopathic thoughts and actions. Anxiety has also been linked to inhibitory control, with research suggesting that people with anxiety are less capable of inhibiting their emotions than the average person. This study investigates the relationship between anxiety and loss of inhibitory control in younger and older adults, using a variety of questionnaires and computers-based tests. Based on the premise that irrespective of classification, anxiety is associated with a wide range of physical, affective, and cognitive responses, this study explores evidence indicative of the potential influence anxiety per se on loss of inhibitory control, in order to contribute to discussion and appropriate consideration of anxiety-related factors in methodological practice.

Keywords: anxiety, ageing, dementia, inhibitory control

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Authors: Takeshi Takemoto, Naoya Suzuki, Naohisa Takagaki, Satoru Komori, Masako Terui, George Truscott

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Drag coefficient is an important parameter in order to correctly estimate the air-sea momentum flux. However, The parameterization of the drag coefficient hasn’t been established due to the variation in the field data. Instead, a number of drag coefficient model formulae have been proposed, even though almost all these models haven’t discussed the extreme wind speed range. With regards to such models, it is unclear how the drag coefficient changes in the extreme wind speed range as the wind speed increased. In this study, we investigated the effect of the drag coefficient models concerning the air-sea momentum flux in the extreme wind range on a global scale, comparing two different drag coefficient models. Interestingly, one model didn’t discuss the extreme wind speed range while the other model considered it. We found that the difference of the models in the annual global air-sea momentum flux was small because the occurrence frequency of strong wind was approximately 1% with a wind speed of 20m/s or more. However, we also discovered that the difference of the models was shown in the middle latitude where the annual mean air-sea momentum flux was large and the occurrence frequency of strong wind was high. In addition, the estimated data showed that the difference of the models in the drag coefficient was large in the extreme wind speed range and that the largest difference became 23% with a wind speed of 35m/s or more. These results clearly show that the difference of the two models concerning the drag coefficient has a significant impact on the estimation of a regional air-sea momentum flux in an extreme wind speed range such as that seen in a tropical cyclone environment. Furthermore, we estimated each air-sea momentum flux using several kinds of drag coefficient models. We will also provide data from an observation tower and result from CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) concerning the influence of wind flow at and around the place.

Keywords: air-sea interaction, drag coefficient, air-sea momentum flux, CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics)

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Authors: Josip Visković, Josip Arnerić, Ante Rozga

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Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modelling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.

Keywords: central and east European countries, financial crisis, Markov switching GARCH model, transition probabilities

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Authors: Nagini Sabbineni, Rajini T. V. Kanth, B. V. Kiranmayee

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India’s economy primarily depends on agriculture yield growth and their allied agro industry products. The agriculture yield prediction is the toughest task for agricultural departments across the globe. The agriculture yield depends on various factors. Particularly countries like India, majority of agriculture growth depends on rain water, which is highly unpredictable. Agriculture growth depends on different parameters, namely Water, Nitrogen, Weather, Soil characteristics, Crop rotation, Soil moisture, Surface temperature and Rain water etc. In our paper, lot of Explorative Data Analysis is done and various predictive models were designed. Further various regression models like Linear, Multiple Linear, Non-linear models are tested for the effective prediction or the forecast of the agriculture yield for various crops in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana states.

Keywords: agriculture yield growth, agriculture yield prediction, explorative data analysis, predictive models, regression models

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Authors: Saba Belgheisi

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Food packaging, is an important discipline in the area of food technology, concerns preservation and protection of foods. The objective of this research was to determine of the effect of whey protein based edible coating on the moisture loss and sensory attributes of fresh mutton after 0, 1, 3 and 5 days at 5° C. The moisture content, moisture loss and sensory attributes (juiciness, color and odor) of the coated and uncoated samples were analyzed. The results showed that, moisture content, moisture loss, juiciness and color of the coated and uncoated samples have significant differences (p < 0.05) at the intervals of 0 to 1 and 1 to 3 days of storage. But no significant difference was observed at interval time 3 to 5 days of storage (p > 0.05). Also, there was no significant differences in the odor values of the coated and uncoated samples (p > 0.05). Therefore, the coated samples had consistently more moisture, juiciness and colored values than uncoated samples after 3 days at 5° C. So, whey protein edible coating could enhance product presentation and eliminate the need for placing absorbent pads at the bottom of the trays.

Keywords: coating, whey protein, mutton, moisture, sensory

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Authors: Muhammad Umair, Yasir Nawab, Khubab Shaker, Muhammad Maqsood, Adeel Zulfiqar, Danish Mahmood Baitab

Abstract:

Fabric is a flexible woven material consisting of a network of natural or artificial fibers often referred to as thread or yarn. Today fabrics are produced by weaving, braiding, knitting, tufting and non-woven. Weaving is a method of fabric production in which warp and weft yarns are interlaced perpendicular to each other. There is infinite number of ways for the interlacing of warp and weft yarn. Each way produces a different fabric structure. The yarns parallel to the machine direction are called warp yarns and the yarns perpendicular to the machine direction are called weft or filling yarns. Air jet weaving is the modern method of weft insertion and considered as high speed loom. The twist loss in air jet during weft insertion affects the strength. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of twist change in weft yarn during air-jet weft insertion. A total number of 8 samples were produced using 1/1 plain and 3/1 twill weave design with two fabric widths having same loom settings. Two different types of yarns like cotton and PC blend were used. The effect of material type, weave design and fabric width on twist change of weft yarn was measured and discussed. Twist change in the different types of weft yarn and weave design was measured and compared the twist change in the weft yarn with the yarn before weft yarn insertion and twist loss is measured. Wider fabric leads to higher twist loss in the yarn.

Keywords: air jet loom, twist per inch, twist loss, weft yarn

Procedia PDF Downloads 370

Authors: Ali S. Gargoum

Abstract:

Graphical modeling plays an important role in providing efficient probability calculations in high dimensional problems (computational efficiency). In this paper, we address one of such problems where we discuss fragmenting puff models and some distributional assumptions concerning models for the instantaneous, emission readings and for the fragmenting process. A graphical representation in terms of a junction tree of the conditional probability breakdown of puffs and puff fragments is proposed.

Keywords: graphical models, influence diagrams, junction trees, Bayesian nets

Procedia PDF Downloads 369

Authors: Raquel Zydeck, Karina Azzolin, Luis Kosteski, Alisson Milani

Abstract:

This work presents numerical models in plane deformations (2D), using the Discrete Element Method formedbybars (LDEM) andtheFiniteElementMethod (FEM), in structuralmasonrywallswith horizontal chasesof 20%, 30%, and 50% deep, located in the central part and 1/3 oftheupperpartofthewall, withcenteredandeccentricloading. Differentcombinationsofboundaryconditionsandinteractionsbetweenthemethodswerestudied.

Keywords: chases in structural masonry walls, discrete element method formed by bars, finite element method, numerical models, boundary condition

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Nurudeen O. Lasisi, Sirajo Abdulrahman, Abdulkareem A. Ibrahim

Abstract:

Newcastle disease is an infection of domestic poultry and other bird species with the virulent Newcastle disease virus (NDV). In this paper, we study the dynamics of the modeling of the Newcastle disease virus (NDV) using a novel quarantine-adjusted incidence. The comparison of Vaccination, linear incident rate and novel quarantine-adjusted incident rate in the models are discussed. The dynamics of the models yield disease-free and endemic equilibrium states.The effective reproduction numbers of the models are computed in order to measure the relative impact of an individual bird or combined intervention for effective disease control. We showed the local and global stability of endemic equilibrium states of the models and we found that the stability of endemic equilibrium states of models are globally asymptotically stable if the effective reproduction numbers of the models equations are greater than a unit.

Keywords: effective reproduction number, Endemic state, Mathematical model, Newcastle disease virus, novel quarantine-adjusted incidence, stability analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 61