Search results for: logit%20and%20probit%20models

Authors: Yungtai Lo

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Two-part random effects models have been used to fit semi-continuous longitudinal data where the response variable has a point mass at 0 and a continuous right-skewed distribution for positive values. We review methods proposed in the literature for analyzing data with excess zeros. A two-part logit-log-normal random effects model, a two-part logit-truncated normal random effects model, a two-part logit-gamma random effects model, and a two-part logit-skew normal random effects model were used to examine effects of a bottle-weaning intervention on reducing bottle use and daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers aged 11 to 13 months in a randomized controlled trial. We show in all four two-part models that the intervention promoted bottle-weaning and reduced daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers drinking from a bottle. We also show that there are no differences in model fit using either the logit link function or the probit link function for modeling the probability of bottle-weaning in all four models. Furthermore, prediction accuracy of the logit or probit link function is not sensitive to the distribution assumption on daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers not off bottles.

Keywords: two-part model, semi-continuous variable, truncated normal, gamma regression, skew normal, Pearson residual, receiver operating characteristic curve

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Authors: Nattabhorn Leamcharaskul

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This study aims to examine determining factors of the dynamics of poverty in Thailand by using panel data of 3,567 households in 2007-2017. Four techniques of estimation are employed to analyze the situation of poverty across households and time periods: the multinomial logit model, the sequential logit model, the quantile regression model, and the difference in difference model. Households are categorized based on their experiences into 5 groups, namely chronically poor, falling into poverty, re-entering into poverty, exiting from poverty and never poor households. Estimation results emphasize the effects of demographic and socioeconomic factors as well as unexpected events on the economic status of a household. It is found that remittances have positive impact on household’s economic status in that they are likely to lower the probability of falling into poverty or trapping in poverty while they tend to increase the probability of exiting from poverty. In addition, not only receiving a secondary source of household income can raise the probability of being a never poor household, but it also significantly increases household income per capita of the chronically poor and falling into poverty households. Public work programs are recommended as an important tool to relieve household financial burden and uncertainty and thus consequently increase a chance for households to escape from poverty.

Keywords: difference in difference, dynamic, multinomial logit model, panel data, poverty, quantile regression, remittance, sequential logit model, Thailand, transfer

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Authors: Babak Mirbaha, Mahmoud Saffarzadeh, Atieh Asgari Toorzani

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Pedestrians are the most vulnerable road users since they do not have a protective shell. One of the most common collisions for them is pedestrian-vehicle at intersections. In order to develop appropriate countermeasures to improve safety for them, researches have to be conducted to identify the factors that affect the risk of getting involved in such collisions. More specifically, this study investigates factors such as the influence of walking alone or having a baby while crossing the street, the observable age of pedestrian, the speed of pedestrians and the speed of approaching vehicles on risk perception of pedestrians. A nested logit model was used for modeling the behavioral structure of pedestrians. The results show that the presence of more lanes at intersections and not being alone especially having a baby while crossing, decrease the probability of taking a risk among pedestrians. Also, it seems that teenagers show more risky behaviors in crossing the street in comparison to other age groups. Also, the speed of approaching vehicles was considered significant. The probability of risk taking among pedestrians decreases by increasing the speed of approaching vehicle in both the first and the second lanes of crossings.

Keywords: pedestrians, intersection, nested logit, risk

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Authors: Festus M. Epetimehin

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This study was conducted to identify the effect of National Directorate of Employment (NDE) training on the profit of Agricultural-Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and to evaluate the factors that influenced farmers' participation in NDE training, as well as the type and frequency of training farmers and other agro-allied entrepreneurs in Nigeria. Using a multi-stage sampling procedure, a total of 384 respondents were sampled, including 192 beneficiaries and 192 non-beneficiaries in Oyo and Lagos States, respectively. Data were analysed using Binary Logit regression and Propensity Score Matching techniques. According to the binary logit analysis, respondents’ gender, availability to extension services, and the location of respondent’s operation were determinant factors influencing NDE training enrolment. All identified factors are related to the probability of respondents’ involvement in a positive way. Propensity score matching revealed that Agricultural-SMEs who participated in the NDE program boosted their profit by N341,072.18. The positive outcome of the effect implies that NDE training enhances Agri-SME performance in Nigeria. The study concluded that greater funding should be provided for the NDE for performance-enhancing training of the Agri-SMEs.

Keywords: PSM, binary logit model, Agri-SME

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Authors: Kalandi Charan Pradhan

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In this study, we investigate does weather variation determine temporary labour migration using 210 sample households from six Semi-Arid Tropic (SAT) villages for the period of 2005-2014 in India. The study has made an attempt to examine how households use temporary labour migration as a coping mechanism to minimise the risk rather than maximize the utility of the households. The study employs panel Logit regression model to predict the probability of household having at least one temporary labour migrant. As per as econometrics result, it is found that along with demographic and socioeconomic factors; weather variation plays an important role to determine the decision of migration at household level. In order to capture the weather variation, the study uses mean crop yield deviation over the study periods. Based on the random effect logit regression result, the study found that there is a concave relationship between weather variation and decision of temporary labour migration. This argument supports the theory of New Economics of Labour Migration (NELM), which highlights the decision of labour migration not only maximise the households’ utility but it helps to minimise the risks.

Keywords: temporary migration, socioeconomic factors, weather variation, crop yield, logit estimation

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Authors: A. J. Julius, E. Imoagene, O. A. Ganiyu

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The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic value of the services and functions rendered by the forest landscape using a conditional logit model. For this study, attributes and levels of forest landscape were chosen; specifically, attributes include topographical forest type, forest type, forest density, recreational factor (side trip, accessibility of valley), and willingness to participate (WTP). Based on these factors, 48 choices sets with balanced and orthogonal form using statistical analysis system (SAS) 9.1 was adopted. The efficiency of the questionnaire was 6.02 (D-Error. 0.1), and choice set and socio-economic variables were analyzed. To reduce the cognitive load of respondents, the 48 choice sets were divided into 4 types in the questionnaire, so that respondents could respond to 12 choice sets, respectively. The study populations were citizens from seven metropolitan cities including Ibadan, Ilorin, Osogbo, etc. and annual WTP per household was asked by using the interview questionnaire, a total of 267 copies were recovered. As a result, Oshogbo had 0.45, and the statistical similarities could not be found except for urban forests, forest density, recreational factor, and level of WTP. Average annual WTP per household for forest landscape was 104,758 Naira (Nigerian currency) based on the outcome from this model, total economic value of the services and functions enjoyed from Nigerian forest landscape has reached approximately 1.6 trillion Naira.

Keywords: economic valuation, urban cities, services, forest landscape, logit model, nigeria

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Authors: Alma Sobrevilla

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Using panel data from Mexico, this paper studies the determinants of women’s intrahousehold decision-making power using a generalised ordered logit model. Fixed effects estimations are also carried out to solve potential endogeneity coming from unobservable time-invariant factors. Finally, the paper analyses quadratic and community divergence effects of education on power. Results show heterogeneity in the effect of each of the determinants across different levels of decision-making power and suggest the presence of a significant quadratic effect of education. Having more education than the community average has a negative effect on power, supporting the notion that women tend to compensate their success outside the household with submissive attitudes at home.

Keywords: women, decision-making power, intrahousehold, Mexico

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Authors: Tayebeh Saghapour, Sara Moridpour, Russell George Thompson

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One of the common aims of transport policy makers is to switch people’s travel to active transport. For this purpose, a variety of transport goals and investments should be programmed to increase the propensity towards active transport mode choice. This paper aims to investigate whether built environment features in neighbourhoods could enhance the odds of active transportation. The present study introduces an index measuring public transport accessibility (PTAI), and a walkability index along with socioeconomic variables to investigate mode choice behaviour. Using travel behaviour data, an ordered logit regression model is applied to examine the impacts of explanatory variables on walking trips. The findings indicated that high rates of active travel are consistently associated with higher levels of walking and public transport accessibility.

Keywords: active transport, public transport accessibility, walkability, ordered logit model

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Authors: Saheed Olakunle Sanusi, Israel Ajibade Adedeji

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The study analysed the effect of microfinance on the profit level of small and medium scale enterprises in Lagos. The data for the study were obtained by simple random sampling, and total of one hundred and fifty (150) small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs) were sampled for the study. Seventy-five (75) each are microfinance users and non-users. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, logit model, t-test and ordinary least square (OLS) regression. The mean profit of the enterprises using microfinance is ₦16.8m, while for the non-users of microfinance is ₦5.9m. The mean profit of microfinance users is statistically different from the non-users. The result of the logit model specified for the determinant of access to microfinance showed that three of specified variables- educational status of the enterprise head, credit utilisation and volume of business investment are significant at P < 0.01. Enterprises with many years of experience, highly educated enterprise heads and high volume of business investment have more potential access to microfinance. The OLS regression model indicated that three parameters namely number of school years, the volume of business investment and (dummy) participation in microfinance were found to be significant at P < 0.05. These variables are therefore significant determinants of impacts of microfinance on profit level in the study area. The study, therefore, concludes and recommends that to improve the status of small and medium scale enterprises for an increase in profit, the full benefit of access to microfinance can be enhanced through investment in social infrastructure and human capital development. Also, concerted efforts should be made to encouraged non-users of microfinance among SMEs to use it in order to boost their profit.

Keywords: credit utilisation, logit model, microfinance, small and medium enterprises

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Authors: A. Bere, H. G. Sithuba, K. Kyei, C. Sigauke

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We employ a discrete logit survival model to investigate the risk factors for early alcohol intake among students at two tertiary institutions in Thohoyandou, South Africa. Data were collected from a sample of 744 students using a self-administered questionnaire. Significant covariates were arrived at through a regularization algorithm implemented using the glmmLasso package. The tuning parameter was determined using a five-fold cross-validation algorithm. The baseline hazard was modelled as a smooth function of time through the use of spline functions. The results show that the hazard of initial alcohol intake peaks at the age of about 16 years and that at any given time, being of a male gender, prior use of other drugs, having drinking peers, having experienced negative life events and physical abuse are associated with a higher risk of alcohol intake debut.

Keywords: cross-validation, discrete hazard model, LASSO, smooth baseline hazard

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Authors: Ritika Jain, Rajnish Kumar

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The Department of Public Enterprises had made submissions of Self Evaluation Reports, for the purpose of corporate governance, mandatory for all central government owned enterprises. Despite this, an alarming 40% of the enterprises did not do so. This study examines the impact of external policy tools and internal firm-specific factors on corporate governance of central public sector enterprises (CPSEs). We use a dataset of all manufacturing and non-financial services owned by the central government of India for the year 2010-11. Using probit, ordered logit and Heckman’s sample selection models, the study finds that the probability and quality of corporate governance is positively influenced by the CPSE getting into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the central government of India, and hence, enjoying more autonomy in terms of day to day operations. Besides these, internal factors, including bigger size and lower debt size contribute significantly to better corporate governance.

Keywords: corporate governance, central public sector enterprises (CPSEs), sample selection, Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), ordered logit, disinvestment

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Authors: Khalil Ahmad Kakar

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In developing countries increasing the automobile and low capacity public transport (para-transit) which are creating congestion, pollution, noise, and traffic accident are the most critical quandary. These issues are under the analysis of assessors to break down the puzzle and propose sustainable urban public transport system. Kabul city is one of those urban areas that the inhabitants are suffering from lack of tolerable and friendly public transport system. The city is the most-populous and overcrowded with around 4.5 million population. The para-transit is the only dominant public transit system with a very poor level of services and low capacity vehicles (6-20 passengers). Therefore, this study after detailed investigations suggests bus rapid transit (BRT) system in Kabul City. It is aimed to mitigate the role of informal transport and decreases congestion. The research covers three parts. In the first part, aggregated travel demand modelling (four-step) is applied to determine the number of users for para-transit and assesses BRT network based on higher passenger demand for public transport mode. In the second part, state preference (SP) survey and binary logit model are exerted to figure out the utility of existing para-transit mode and planned BRT system. Finally, the impact of predicted BRT system on para-transit is evaluated. The extracted outcome based on high travel demand suggests 10 km network for the proposed BRT system, which is originated from the district tenth and it is ended at Kabul International Airport. As well as, the result from the disaggregate travel mode-choice model, based on SP and logit model indicates that the predicted mass rapid transit system has higher utility with the significant impact regarding the reduction of para-transit.

Keywords: BRT, para-transit, travel demand modelling, Kabul City, logit model

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Authors: Xizhen Zhou, Yanjie Ji

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The charging behavior of drivers provides a reference for the planning and management of charging facilities. Based on the real trajectory data of electric vehicles, this study explored the influence of the surrounding environments of the parking spot on charging decisions. The built environment, the condition of vehicles, and the nearest charging station were all considered. And the mixed binary logit model was used to capture the impact of unobserved heterogeneity. The results show that the number of fast chargers in the charging station, parking price, dwell time, and shopping services all significantly impact the charging decision, while the leisure services, scenic spots, and mileage since the last charging are opposite. Besides, factors related to unobserved heterogeneity include the number of fast chargers, parking and charging prices, residential areas, etc. The interaction effects of random parameters further illustrate the complexity of charging choice behavior. The results provide insights for planning and managing charging facilities.

Keywords: charging decision, trajectory, electric vehicle, infrastructure, mixed logit

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Authors: K. B. Ramappa, A. V. Manjunatha

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Consumerism in India is witnessing unprecedented growth driven by favourable demographics, rising young and working population, rising income levels, urbanization and growing brand orientation. In addition, the increasing level of awareness on health, hygiene and quality has made the consumers to think on the fairly traded goods and brands. This has made retailing extremely important to everyone because without retailers’ consumers would not have access to day-to-day products. The increased competition among different retailers has contributed significantly towards rising consumer awareness on quality products and brand loyalty. Many existing empirical studies have mainly focused on net saving of consumers at organised retail via-a-vis unorganised retail shops. In this article, authors have analysed the Bangalore consumers' attitudes towards buying of fruits and vegetables and their choice of retail outlets. The primary data was collected from 100 consumers belonging to the Bangalore City during October 2014. Sample consumers buying at supermarkets, convenience stores and hypermarkets were purposively selected. The collected data was analyzed using descriptive statistics and multinomial logit model. It was found that among all variables, quality and prices were major accountable factors for buying fruits and vegetables at organized retail shops. The empirical result of multinomial logit model reveals that annual net income was positively associated with the Big Bazar and Food World consumers and negatively associated with the Reliance Fresh, More and Niligiris consumers, as compared with the HOPCOMS consumers. Per month expenditure on fruits and vegetables was positively and age of the consumer was negatively related to the consumers’ choice of buying at modern retail markets. Consumers were willing to buy at modern retail outlets irrespective of the distance.

Keywords: organized retailers, consumers' attitude, consumers' preference, fruits, vegetables, multinomial logit, Bangalore

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Authors: Sivanandan Balakrishnan, Sara Moridpour, Richard Tay

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Heavy vehicles make a significant contribution to many developed economies, including Australia, because they are a major means of transporting goods within these countries. With the increase in road freight, there will be an increase in the heavy vehicle traffic proportion, and consequently, an increase in the possibility of collisions involving heavy vehicles. Crashes involving heavy vehicles are a major road safety concern because of the higher likelihood of fatal and serious injury, especially to any small vehicle occupant involved. The primary objective of this research is to identify the factors influencing injury severity to occupants in vehicle collisions involving heavy vehicle at T- intersection using a binary logit model in Victoria, Australia. Our results show that the factors influencing injury severity include occupants' gender, age and restraint use. Also, vehicles' type, movement, point-of-impact and damage, time-of-day, day-of-week and season, higher percentage of trucks in traffic volume, hit pedestrians, number of occupants involved and type of collisions are associated with severe injury.

Keywords: binary logit model, heavy vehicle, injury severity, T-intersections

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Authors: Hamidou Diallo, Marianne Guille

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This paper identifies leading triggers of deficient episodes in terms of GDP growth based on a sample of countries at different stages of development over 1994-2017. Using logit models, we build early warning systems (EWS), and our results show important differences between developing countries (DCs) and advanced economies (AEs). For AEs, the main predictors of the probability of entering in a GDP growth deficient episode are the deterioration of external imbalances and the vulnerability of fiscal position while DCs face different challenges that need to be considered. The key indicators for them are first, the low ability to pay their debts, and second, their belonging or not to a common currency area. We also build homogeneous pools of countries inside AEs and DCs. The evolution of the proportion of AE countries in the riskiest pool is marked first, by three distinct peaks just after the high-tech bubble burst, the global financial crisis, and the European sovereign debt crisis, and second by a very low minimum level in 2006 and 2007. In contrast, the situation of DCs is characterized first by the relative stability of this proportion and then by an upward trend from 2006, that can be explained by a more unfavorable socio-political environment leading to shortcomings in the fiscal consolidation.

Keywords: currency area, early warning system, external imbalances, fiscal vulnerability, GDP growth, public debt

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Authors: Farida, M. Shehu, Shehu U. R. Aliyu

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Access to finance has been recognized in the literature as one of the major impediments confronting small scale businesses (SSBs). This largely arises due to high lending rate, religious inclinations, collateral, etc. Islamic mode finance operates under Profit and Loss Sharing (PLS) arrangement between a borrower (business owner) and a lender (Islamic bank). This paper empirically assesses the determinants of predisposition of small scale business operators in Fagge local government area, Kano State, Nigeria, towards the PLS. Cross-sectional data from a sample of 291 small scale business operators was analyzed using logit and probit regression models. Empirical results reveal that while awareness and religion inclination positively drive interest towards the PLS, lending rate and collateral work against it. The paper, therefore, strongly recommends more advocacy campaigns and setting up of more Islamic banks in the country to cater for the financing and religious needs of SSBs in the study area.

Keywords: Islamic finance, logit and probit models, profit and loss sharing small scale businesses, finance, commerce

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Authors: Michalis Linardakis, Vasilis Grammatikopoulos, Athanasios Gregoriadis, Kalliopi Trouli

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Discrete choice models belong to the family of Conjoint analysis that are applied on the preferences of the respondents towards a set of scenarios that describe alternative choices. The scenarios have been pre-designed to cover all the attributes of the alternatives that may affect the choices. In this study, we examine how preschool educators integrate physical activities into their everyday teaching practices through the use of discrete choice models. One of the advantages of discrete choice models compared to other more traditional data collection methods (e.g. questionnaires and interviews that use ratings) is that the respondent is called to select among competitive and realistic alternatives, rather than objectively rate each attribute that the alternatives may have. We present the effort to construct and choose representative attributes that would cover all possible choices of the respondents, and the scenarios that have arisen. For the purposes of the study, we used a sample of 50 preschool educators in Greece that responded to 4 scenarios (from the total of 16 scenarios that the orthogonal design resulted), with each scenario having three alternative teaching practices. Seven attributes of the alternatives were used in the scenarios. For the analysis of the data, we used multinomial logit model with random effects, multinomial probit model and generalized mixed logit model. The conclusions drawn from the estimated parameters of the models are discussed.

Keywords: conjoint analysis, discrete choice models, educational data, multivariate statistical analysis

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Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

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Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightly-distressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models, are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the two-stage model incorporating financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors has the lowest misclassification error rate. The two-stage model is more accurate than the one-stage model as its distressed cut-off indicators are adjusted according to the macroeconomic-based credit cycle index.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy

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Authors: Georgios Charizanos, Haydar Demirhan, Duygu Icen

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Two of the most impactful issues in classical logistic regression are class imbalance and complete separation. These can result in model predictions heavily leaning towards the imbalanced class on the binary response variable or over-fitting issues. Fuzzy methodology offers key solutions for handling these problems. However, most studies propose the transformation of the binary responses into a continuous format limited within [0,1]. This is called the possibilistic approach within fuzzy logistic regression. Following this approach is more aligned with straightforward regression since a logit-link function is not utilized, and fuzzy probabilities are not generated. In contrast, we propose a method of fuzzifying binary response variables that allows for the use of the logit-link function; hence, a probabilistic fuzzy logistic regression model with the Monte Carlo method. The fuzzy probabilities are then classified by selecting a fuzzy threshold. Different combinations of fuzzy and crisp input, output, and coefficients are explored, aiming to understand which of these perform better under different conditions of imbalance and separation. We conduct numerical experiments using both synthetic and real datasets to demonstrate the performance of the fuzzy logistic regression framework against seven crisp machine learning methods. The proposed framework shows better performance irrespective of the degree of imbalance and presence of separation in the data, while the considered machine learning methods are significantly impacted.

Keywords: fuzzy logistic regression, fuzzy, logistic, machine learning

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Authors: Rizki Nor Amelia, Farida A. Setiawati

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This study aimed to: (1) describe the characteristics of teacher-made test instrument used to measure the ability of students’chemistry, and (2) identify the presence of the compability difficulty level set by teachers to difficulty level by empirical results. Based on these objectives, this study was a descriptive research. The analysis in this study used the Rasch model and Chi-square statistics. Analysis using Rasch Model was based on the response patterns of high school students to the teacher-made test instrument on chemistry subject Academic Year 2015/2016 in the Yogyakarta. The sample of this research were 358 students taken by cluster random sampling technique. The analysis showed that: (1) a teacher-made tests instrument has a medium on the mean difficulty level. This instrument is capable to measure the ability on the interval of -0,259 ≤ θ ≤ 0,659 logit. Maximum Test Information Function obtained at 18.187 on the ability +0,2 logit; (2) 100% items categorized either as easy or difficult by rasch model is match with the teachers’ judgment; while 37 items are categorized according to rasch model which 8.10% and 10.81% categorized as easy and difficult items respectively according to the teachers, the others are medium categorized. Overall, the distribution of the level of difficulty formulated by the teachers has the distinction (not match) to the level of difficulty based on the empirical results.

Keywords: chemistry, items parameter fitness, Rasch model, teacher-made test

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Authors: Armana Huq

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Railway networks have a significant role in the economy of any country. Similar to other transportation modes, many lives suffer from fatalities or injuries caused by accidents related to the railway. Railway accidents are not as common as roadway accidents yet they are more devastating and damaging than other roadway accidents. Despite that, issues related to railway accidents are not taken into consideration with significant attention as a major threat because of their less frequency compared to other accident categories perhaps. However, the Federal Railroad Administration reported nearly twelve thousand train accidents related to the railroad in the year 2014, resulting in more than eight hundred fatalities and thousands of injuries in the United States alone of which nearly one third fatalities resulted from railway crossing accidents. From an analysis of railway accident data of six years (2005-2010), it has been revealed that 344 numbers of the collision were occurred resulting 200 people dead and 443 people injured in Bangladesh. This paper includes a comprehensive overview of the railway safety situation in Bangladesh from 1998 to 2015. Each year on average, eight fatalities are reported in at-grade level crossings due to railway accidents in Bangladesh. In this paper, the number of railway accidents that occurred in Bangladesh has been presented and a fatality rate of 58.62% has been estimated as the percentage of total at-grade railway level crossing accidents. For this study, analysis of railway accidents in Bangladesh for the period 1998 to 2015 was obtained from the police reported accident database using MAAP (Microcomputer Accident Analysis Package). Investigation of the major contributing factors to the railway accidents has been performed using the Multinomial Logit model. Furthermore, hotspot analysis has been conducted using ArcGIS. Eventually, some suggestions have been provided to mitigate those accidents.

Keywords: safety, human factors, multinomial logit model, railway

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Authors: Aayushi Lyngwa, Bimal Kishore Sahoo

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The study discusses the relationship between cognitive ability and the level of education attained by the tribal street entrepreneurs on their financial literacy. It is driven by the objective of examining the effect of cognitive ability on financial ability on the one hand and determining the effect of the same on financial literacy on the other. A field experiment was conducted on 203 tribal street vendors in the north-eastern Indian state of Mizoram. This experiment's calculations are conditioned by providing each question scores like math score (cognitive ability), financial score and debt score (financial ability). After that, categories for each of the variables, like math category (math score), financial category (financial score) and debt category (debt score), are generated to run the regression model. Since the dependent variable is ordinal, an ordered logit regression model was applied. The study shows that street vendors' cognitive and financial abilities are highly correlated. It, therefore, confirms that cognitive ability positively affects the financial literacy of street vendors through the increase in attainment of educational levels. It is also found that concerning the type of street vendors, regular street vendors are more likely to have better cognitive abilities than temporary street vendors. Additionally, street vendors with more cognitive and financial abilities gained better monthly profits and performed habits of bookkeeping. The study attempts to draw a particular focus on a set-up which is economically and socially marginalized in the Indian economy. Its finding contributes to understanding financial literacy in an understudied area and provides policy implications through inclusive financial systems solutions in an economy limited to tribal street vendors.

Keywords: financial literacy, education, street entrepreneurs, tribals, cognitive ability, financial ability, ordered logit regression.

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Authors: Zixuan Zhao, Lingbin Du, Le Wang, Youqing Wang, Yi Yang, Jingjun Chen, Hengjin Dong

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Objectives: Few results from public attitudes for lung cancer screening are available both in China and abroad. This study aimed to identify preferred lung cancer screening modalities in a Chinese population and predict uptake rates of different modalities. Materials and Methods: A discrete choice experiment questionnaire was administered to 392 Chinese individuals aged 50–74 years who were at high risk for lung cancer. Each choice set had two lung screening options and an option to opt-out, and respondents were asked to choose the most preferred one. Both mixed logit analysis and stepwise logistic analysis were conducted to explore whether preferences were related to respondent characteristics and identify which kinds of respondents were more likely to opt out of any screening. Results: On mixed logit analysis, attributes that were predictive of choice at 1% level of statistical significance included the screening interval, screening venue, and out-of-pocket costs. The preferred screening modality seemed to be screening by low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) + blood test once a year in a general hospital at a cost of RMB 50; this could increase the uptake rate by 0.40 compared to the baseline setting. On stepwise logistic regression, those with no endowment insurance were more likely to opt out; those who were older and housewives/househusbands, and those with a health check habit and with commercial endowment insurance were less likely to opt out from a screening programme. Conclusions: There was considerable variance between real risk and self-perceived risk of lung cancer among respondents, and further research is required in this area. Lung cancer screening uptake can be increased by offering various screening modalities, so as to help policymakers further design the screening modality.

Keywords: lung cancer, screening, China., discrete choice experiment

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Authors: Juan de Ona, Esperanza Estevez, Rocío de Ona

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Urban traffic levels can be reduced by drawing travelers away from private vehicles over to using public transport. This modal change can be achieved by either introducing restrictions on private vehicles or by introducing measures which increase people’s satisfaction with public transport. For public transport users, quality of service affects customer satisfaction, which, in turn, influences the behavioral intentions towards the service. This paper intends to identify the main attributes which influence the perception private vehicle users have about the public transport services provided in five European cities: Berlin, Lisbon, London, Madrid and Rome. Ordinal logit models have been applied to an online panel survey with a sample size of 2,500 regular private vehicle users (approximately 500 inhabitants per city). To achieve a comprehensive analysis and to deal with heterogeneity in perceptions, 15 models have been developed for the entire sample and 14 user segments. The results show differences between the cities and among the segments. Madrid was taken as reference city and results indicate that the inhabitants are satisfied with public transport in Madrid and that the most important public transport service attributes for private vehicle users are frequency, speed and intermodality. Frequency is an important attribute for all the segments, while speed and intermodality are important for most of the segments. An analysis by segments has identified attributes which, although not important in most cases, are relevant for specific segments. This study also points out important differences between the five cities. Findings from this study can be used to develop policies and recommendations for persuading.

Keywords: service quality, satisfaction, public transportation, private vehicle users, car users, segmentation, ordered logit

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Authors: Eke Balla Sophie Michelle

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Forest provides a wide range of environmental goods and services among which, biodiversity or consumption goods and constitute public goods. Despite the importance of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) in sustaining livelihood and poverty smoothening in rural communities, they are highly depleted and poorly conserved. Yokadouma is a town where NTFPs is a renewable resource in active exploitation. It has been found that such exploitation is done in the same conditions as other localities that have experienced a rapid depletion of their NTFPs in destination to cities across Cameroon, Central Africa, and overseas. Given these realities, it is necessary to access the consequences of this overexploitation through negative effects on both the population and the environment. Therefore, to enhance participatory conservation initiatives, this study determines the household’s willingness to pay in community forest (CF) of Morikouali-ye, eastern region of Cameroon, for sustainable exploitation of NTFPs using contingent valuation method (CVM) through two approaches, one parametric (Logit model) and the other non-parametric (estimator of the Turnbull lower bound). The results indicate that five species are the most collected in the study area: Irvingia gabonensis, the Ricinodendron heudelotii, Gnetum, the Jujube and bark, their sale contributes significantly to 41 % of total household income. The average willingness to pay through the Logit model and the Turnbull estimator is 6845.2861 FCFA and 4940 FCFA respectively per household per year with a social cost of degradation estimated at 3237820.3253 FCFA years. The probability to pay increases with income, gender, number of women in the household, age, the commercial activity of NTFPs and decreases with the concept of sustainable development.

Keywords: non timber forest product, contingent valuation method, willingness to pay, sustainable development

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Authors: Getamesay Kassaye Dimru

Abstract:

The cultivation of fruit tree in degraded areas has two-fold importance. Firstly, it improves food availability and income, and secondly, it promotes the conservation of soil and water improving, in turn, the productivity of the land. The main objectives of this study are to identify the determinant of farmer's fruit trees plantation decision and to major fruit production challenges and opportunities of the study area. The analysis was made using primary data collected from 60 sample household selected randomly from the study area in 2016. The primary data was supplemented by data collected from a key informant. In addition to the descriptive statistics and statistical tests (Chi-square test and t-test), a logit model was employed to identify the determinant of fruit tree plantation decision. Drought, pest incidence, land degradation, lack of input, lack of capital and irrigation schemes maintenance, lack of misuse of irrigation water and limited agricultural personnel are the major production constraints identified. The opportunities that need to further exploited are better access to irrigation, main road access, endowment of preferred guava variety, experience of farmers, and proximity of the study area to research center. The result of logit model shows that from different factors hypothesized to determine fruit tree plantation decision, age of the household head accesses to market and perception of farmers about fruits' disease and pest resistance are found to be significant. The result has revealed important implications for the promotion of fruit production for both land degradation control and rehabilitation and increasing the livelihood of farming households.

Keywords: degradation, fruit, irrigation, pest

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Authors: Tahar Tayachi, Ahlam Alrehaili

Abstract:

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between the corporate board characteristics and the dividend policy among firms on the Saudi Stock Exchange. Design/Methodology/Approach: This paper uses a sample of 103 nonfinancial firms over a time period of 4 years from 2015 to 2018. To investigate how corporate governance mechanisms such as board independence, the board size, frequency of meetings, and free cash flow impact dividends, the study uses Logit and Tobit models. Findings: This paper finds that board size, board independence, and frequency of board meetings have no influence on a firm’s decision to pay dividends, while board size has a significantly positive impact on the levels of cash dividends paid to investors. This study also finds that the level of free cash flows has a positively significant influence on both the decision to pay dividends and the magnitude of dividend payouts. Research Limitations/Implications: This paper attempts to study the effectiveness of dividend policy among some firms on the Saudi Stock Exchange. Practical Implications: The findings reveal that board characteristics, which represent one of the crucial mechanisms of corporate governance, were found to be complementary to corporate laws and regulations imposed on the Saudi market in 2015. The findings also imply that capital market authorities should revise their corporate regulations and ensure that protection laws are adequate and strong enough to protect the interests of all shareholders. Originality/Value: This paper is among the few studies focusing on dividend policy in Saudi Arabia. Finally, these findings suggest that the improvements in corporate laws in Saudi Arabia led to such an outcome, and it has become prevalent in dividend policy decisions and behaviors of Saudi firms.

Keywords: agency theory, Tobit, corporate governance, dividend payout, Logit

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Authors: Naod Mekonnen Anega

Abstract:

The very objective of this paper was to empirically identify technology tailored determinants to the adoption and adoption intensity (extent of use) of agricultural water management technologies in Meda Welabu Woreda, Oromia regional state, Ethiopia. Meda Welabu Woreda which is one of the administrative Woredas of the Oromia regional state was selected purposively as this Woreda is one of the Woredas in the region where small scale irrigation practices and the use of agricultural water management technologies can be found among smallholders. Using the existence water management practices (use of water management technologies) and land use pattern as a criterion Genale Mekchira Kebele is selected to undergo the study. A total of 200 smallholders were selected from the Kebele using the technique developed by Krejeie and Morgan. The study employed the Logit and Tobit models to estimate and identify the economic, social, geographical, household, institutional, psychological, technological factors that determine adoption and adoption intensity of water management technologies. The study revealed that while 55 of the sampled households are adopters of agricultural water management technology the rest 140 were non adopters of the technologies. Among the adopters included in the sample 97% are using river diversion technology (traditional) with traditional canal while the rest 7% percent are using pond with treadle pump technology. The Logit estimation reveled that while adoption of river diversion is positively and significantly affected by membership to local institutions, active labor force, income, access to credit and land ownership, adoption of treadle pump technology is positively and significantly affected by family size, education level, access to credit, extension contact, income, access to market, and slope. The Logit estimation also revealed that whereas, group action requirement, distance to farm, and size of active labor force negative and significantly influenced adoption of river diversion, age and perception has negatively and significantly influenced adoption decision of treadle pump technology. On the other hand, the Tobit estimation reveled that while adoption intensity (extent of use) of agricultural water management is positively and significantly affected by education, credit, and extension contact, access to credit, access to market and income. This study revealed that technology tailored study on adoption of Agricultural water management technologies (AWMTs) should be considered to indentify and scale up best agricultural water management practices. In fact, in countries like Ethiopia, where there is difference in social, economic, cultural, environmental and agro ecological conditions even within the same Kebele technology tailored study that fit the condition of each Kebele would help to identify and scale up best practices in agricultural water management.

Keywords: water management technology, adoption, adoption intensity, smallholders, technology tailored approach

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Authors: Kedar Vishnu, Parmod Kumar

Abstract:

India is becoming most favored retail destination in the world. The organized retail has presented many opportunities to farmers to increase income by shifting cropping pattern from food grains to commercial crops. Previous research revealed potential benefits for farmers by supplying fruits and vegetables to organized retail channels. However the supply of fruits and vegetables from small and marginal farmers remain low than expected. The main objective of this paper is to identify the factors determining market participation of smallholder farmers in modern organized retail chains. Attempt is also made to find out factors influencing the choice of participation in particular organized retail collection centers as compared to other organized retail. The paper was based on primary survey of 40 Beans and Tomato farmers who supply to organized retail collection centers from Karnataka, India. Multiple regression technique is used to identify the factors determining quantity sold at collection centers. The regression result, show that area under vegetables, yield, and price from modern collection center and having access to technical help were found significantly affecting quantity sold into modern organized retail channels. On the opposite, increased rejection rates and vegetable prices at APMC were found influencing farmers decision into the reverse side. Empirical result of the multinomial logit model show that Reliance fresh has tendency to prefer large farmers who can supply more quality and better quantity compared with TESCO and More collection centers. The negative sign of area, having access to technical help, transportation cost, and number of bore wells led to higher probability of farmers to participate in Reliance Fresh collection centers as compared with More and TESCO.

Keywords: fruits, vegetables, organized retail markets, multinomial logit model

Procedia PDF Downloads 315