Search results for: incidence rates (IR)

Authors: Jack S. Pullman, Daniel Wen, Avinash Sharma, Bert Van Der Werf, Richard Martin

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Background: New Zealand (NZ) melanoma incidence rates are amongst the highest in the world. Previous studies investigating the incidence of melanoma in NZ were performed for the periods 1995 – 1999 and 2000 – 2004 and suggested increasing melanoma incidence rates. Aim: The aim of the study is to provide an up-to-date review of trends in cutaneous melanoma in NZ from the New Zealand Cancer Registry (NZCR) 2010 – 2020. Methods: De-identified data were obtained from the NZCR, and relevant demographic and histopathologic information was extracted. Statistical analyses were conducted to calculate age-standardized incidence rates for invasive melanoma (IM) and melanoma in situ (MIS). Secondary results included Breslow thickness and melanoma subtype analysis. Results: There was a decline in the IM age-standardized incidence rate from 30.4 to 23.9 per 100,000 person-years between 2010 to 2020, alongside an increase in MIS incidence rate from 37.1 to 50.3 per 100,000 person-years. Men had a statistically significant higher IM incidence rate (p <0.001) and Breslow thickness (p <0.001) compared with women. Increased age was associated with a higher incidence of IM, presentation with melanoma of greater Breslow thickness and more advanced T stage. Conclusion: The incidence of IM in NZ has decreased in the last decade and was associated with an increase in MIS incidence over the same period. This can be explained due to earlier detection, dermoscopy, the maturity of prevention campaigns and/or a change in skin protection behavior.

Keywords: melanoma, incidence, epidemiology, New Zealand

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Authors: Mombaur Busisiwe, Lesosky Maia, Liebenberg Lisa, Heckmann Jeannine

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Introduction: To assess age- and gender-specific incidence rates (IR) of acetylcholine receptor (AChR)-antibody positive myasthenia gravis (MG) in South Africa, and geographical variation in incidence. Methods: IRs were calculated from positive AChR antibody laboratory data between 2011 and 2012, using 2011 population census data. Results:890 individuals were seropositive, for an annual IR of 8.5 per million. Age-standardized IR for early- (< 50) and late-onset (≥ 50) MG were 4.1 and 24 per million, respectively, and for juveniles, 4.3 per million. The IR between provinces ranged from 1 to 19 per million. Conclusions: In this Southern hemisphere African population, the overall IR and peak IR (in older men) for seropositive MG is comparable to that in Europe and North America, arguing against environmental factors. However, IRs may be higher among children with African genetic ancestry. Geographical variation in incidence underscores the importance of outreach programs for regions with limited resources.

Keywords: incidence rates (IR), acetylcholine receptor (AChR), myasthenia gravis (MG), South Africa

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Authors: Mohd Said Nurumal, Sarah Sheikh Abdul Karim

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Information regarding out of hospital cardiac arrest incidence include outcome in Malaysia is limited and fragmented. This study aims to identify incidence and adherence to protocol of out of hospital cardiac arrest and also to explore the issues faced by the pre-hospital personnel in regards managing cardiac arrest victim in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. A mixed method approach combining the qualitative and quantitative study design was used. The 285 pre-hospital care data sheet of out of hospital cardiac arrest during the year of 2011 were examined by using checklists for identify the incidence and adherence to protocol. Nine semi-structured interviews and two focus group discussions were performed. For the incidence based on the overall out of hospital cardiac arrest cases that occurred in 2011 (n=285), the survival rates were 16.8%. For adherence to protocol, only 89 (41.8%) of the cases adhered to the given protocol and 124 did not adhere to such protocol. The qualitative information provided insight about the issues related to out of hospital cardiac arrest in every aspect. All the relevant qualitative data were merged into few categories relating issues that could affect the management of out of hospital cardiac arrest performed by pre-hospital care team. One of the essential elements in the out of hospital cardiac arrest handling by pre-hospital care is to ensure increase of survival rates and excellent outcomes by adhering to given protocols based on international standard benchmarks. Measures are needed to strengthen the quick activation of the pre-hospital care service, prompt bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation, early defibrillation and timely advanced cardiac life support and also to tackle all the issues highlighted in qualitative results.

Keywords: pre-hospital care, out of hospital cardiac arrest, incidence, protocol, mixed method research

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Authors: Tejasvi Parupudi, Mochen Li, Lakshya Mittal, Ignacio G. Camarillo, Raji Sundararajan

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With breast cancer becoming a global pandemic, it is very important to assess a woman’s risk profile accurately in a timely manner. Providing an estimate of the risk of developing breast cancer to a woman gives her an opportunity to consider options to decrease this risk. Women at low risk may be suggested yearly screenings whereas women with a high risk of developing breast cancer would be candidates for aggressive surveillance. Fortunately, there is a set of risk factors that are used to predict the probability of a woman being diagnosed with breast cancer in the future. Studying risk factors and understanding how they correlate to cancer is important for early diagnosis, prevention and reducing mortality rates. The effect of crucial risk factors among black and white women was compared in this study. The various risk factors analyzed include breast density, age, cancer in a first-degree relative, menopausal status, body mass index (BMI) and prior breast cancer diagnosis, etc. Breast density, age at first full-term birth and BMI were utilized in this study as important risk factors for the comparison of incidence rates between women of black and white races in the USA. Understanding the differences could lead to the development of solutions to reduce disparity in mortality rates among black women by improving overall access to care.

Keywords: big data, breast cancer, risk factors, incidence rates, mortality, race

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Authors: Sandipika Gupta

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Objective: Due to admirably low 30-day mortality rates for paediatric cardiac surgery, it is now pertinent to turn towards more intermediate-length outcomes such as morbidities closely associated with these surgeries. One such morbidity, major adverse events (MAE) comprises a group of adverse outcomes associated with paediatric cardiac surgery (e.g. cardiac arrest, major haemorrhage). Methods: This is a retrospective study that analysed the incidence and impact of MAE which was the primary outcome in the UK population. The data was collected in 5 centres between October 2015 and June 2017, amassing 3090 surgical episodes. The incidence and risk factors for MAE, were assessed through descriptive statistical analyses and multivariate logistic regression. The secondary outcomes of life status at 6 months and the length of hospital stay were also evaluated to understand the impact of MAE on patients. Results: Out of 3090 episodes, 134 (4.3%) had a postoperative MAE. The majority of the episodes were in: neonates (47%, P<0.001), high-risk cardiac diagnosis groups (20.1%, P<0.001), episodes with longer 5mes on the bypass (72.4%, P<0.001) and urgent surgeries (57.9%, P<0.001). Episodes reporting MAE also reported longer lengths of stay in hospital (29 days vs 9 days, P<0.001). Furthermore, patients experiencing MAE were at a higher risk of mortality at the 6-month life status check (mortality rates: 29.2% vs 2%, P<0.001).Conclusions: Key risk factors were identified. An important negative impact of MAE was found for patients. The identified risk factors could be used to profile and flag at-risk patients. Monitoring of MAE rates and closer investigation into the care pathway before and after individual MAEs in children’s heart units may lead to a reduction in these terrible events.

Keywords:

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Authors: Yessengali Ussenbekov, Valery Terletskiy, Orik Zhanserkenova, Shynar Kasymbekova, Indira Beyshova, Aitkali Imanbayev, Almas Serikov

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Currently, there are 46 hereditary diseases afflicting cattle with known molecular genetic diagnostic methods developed for them. Genetic anomalies frequently occur in the Holstein cattle breeds from American and Canadian bloodlines. The data on the incidence of BLAD, CVM, DUMPS and BC autosomal recessive lethal mutations in pedigree animals are discordant, the detrimental allele incidence rates are high for the Holstein cattle breed, whereas the incidence rates of these mutations are low in some breeds or they are completely absent. Data were obtained on the basis of frozen semen of stud bulls. DNA was extracted from the semen with the DNA-Sorb-B extraction kit. The lethal mutation in the genes CD18, SLC35A3, UMP and ASS of Alatau stud bulls (N=124) was detected by polymerase chain reaction and RFLP analysis. It was established that stud bulls of the local Alatau breed were not carriers of the BLAD, CVM, DUMPS, and BC detrimental mutations. However, with a view to preventing the dissemination of hereditary diseases it is recommended to monitor the pedigree stock using molecular genetic methods.

Keywords: PCR, autosomal recessive point mutation, BLAD, CVM, DUMPS, BC, stud bulls

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Authors: Amir Hamed Abd-Elrahman, Mohamed Bessat

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450 fattening cattle and buffaloes aged from 6 to 30 months old were examined clinically to determine patterns of occurrence of hemoparasitic diseases and the efficacy of different anti theilerial drugs. 420 animals examined clinically to determine relation between different outbreak of FMD and LSD in Egypt 2012- 2013 and haemoprotozoal diseases. The clinical pictures of haemoprotozoal diseases are variable, from sever to mild, depending on the endemic situation which governed by frequent previous exposure and tick infestation. B. bigemina is the most common haemoprotozoal diseases in the area of study and the infection rate in a descending manner for B. bigemina, A. marginale and T. annulata were 20%, 9.7% and 6.6% respectively. The species susceptibility of B. bigemina and T. annulata showed a higher incidence in cattle than buffaloes while in A. marginale showed a little difference in cattle and buffaloes susceptibility by 10% and 9.2% respectively. The breed susceptibility of B. bigemina and T. annulata showed a higher incidence in crossbred cattle than native baladi cattle while A. marginale showed a higher incidence in native baladi cattle than crossbred cattle. The maximal infection rates were recorded during summer months. The infection rates of B. bigemina and A. marginale were higher among young animals over 6 months and declined above 2 year old while in T. annulata the infection rates were lower among young animals and increased above 2 year old. The case fatality of T. annulata was higher than A. marginale and B. bigemina. Efficacy of different anti theilerial drugs were studied, cure rate of chlouroquine group and Butalex group were 60% disappearance of schizont in lymph node smear after 9 days and 5 days respectively while cure rate of Oxytetracycline Dihydrate (Alamycine) group 20% with disappearance of schizont in lymph node smear after 14 days. FMD and LSD infection enhancement the occurrence of bovine haemoprotozoal diseases.

Keywords: Babesia bigemina, Anaplasma marginale, Theileria annulata, FMD, LSD, ephemeral fever

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Authors: Arman Kishan, Mark Haft, Steve Li, Duc Nguyen, Dawn Laporte

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Objective: Patients with Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) often face higher postoperative complication rates. Limited data exist on outcomes in T2DM patients undergoing carpal tunnel release (CTR). This study aims to compare complication rates between endoscopic CTR (ECTR) and open CTR (OCTR) in patients with T2DM. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study using the TriNetX database of 56741 patients with T2DM undergoing ECTR (N= 14,949) or OCTR (N= 41,792). Demographic data, medical comorbidities, and complication rates were analyzed. We used multivariable analysis to identify differences in postoperative complication rates between the two treatment methods in patients with T2DM. Results: Patients with T2DM undergoing ECTR had a significantly lower incidence of 90-day wound infection (p < 0.001), 90-day wound dehiscence (p < 0.001), and nerve injury (p < 0.001) when compared to patients who underwent OCTR. After matching, there was a significantly higher number of T2DM patients undergoing ECTR who had peripheral vascular disease (p = 0.045) and hypertension (p = 0.020) when compared to the OCTR group. These patients also had a lower incidence of fluid and electrolyte disorders (p = 0.002) and chronic blood loss anemia (p = 0.025). Conclusion: ECTR presents a superior choice for T2DM patients undergoing CTR, yielding significantly lower rates of wound infection, wound dehiscence, and nerve injury within 90 days post-surgery—reducing the risk by 31%, 48%, and 59%, respectively. These findings support the adoption of ECTR as the preferred method in this patient population, potentially leading to improved postoperative outcomes.

Keywords: endoscopic treatment of carpal tunnel syndrome, open treatment of carpal tunnel syndrome, carpal tunnel syndrome, postoperative complications in patients with diabetes mellitus

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Authors: Ivory A. Rulona, Jarungchai Anton S. Vatanagul

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Background: Depression is common after stroke with quoted rates ranging from 18% to 61%. 8 Mood disturbance is common after stroke and may present as depression or anxiety. Psychological mood disturbance is associated with higher rates of mortality, long term disability, and hospital readmission. Objectives: To investigate the incidence of post-stroke depression in a tertiary hospital in Cebu City, Philippines and to determine its associated factors. The study is designed to be prospective, descriptive, cross-sectional survey. Participants: Adult patients seen and diagnosed to have stroke either infarct or hemorrhage within the period of January 1 to July 31, 2014. Results: A total of 100 patients with stroke were interviewed using the 17-item Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS) questionnaire. The average age of the respondents was 60.50 years old ±1.18, majority were males (55%), 83% were married, and 81% were employed. The most common co-morbidity was hypertension 78% followed by diabetes mellitus at 50%. Moreover, 39% of these patients had stroke in months, 26% in years, and 18% in weeks. The average functional capacity based on Modified Rankin Scale was 2.14+/-0.14. Among 100 patients, a total of 30 patients (30%) had depression: 2 (2%) very severe, 5 (5%) moderate and 23 (23%) had mild depression while 70 patients (70%) had no depression. Stroke located at the dominant hemisphere was not associated with severe depression (p=0.102). A similar trend was also noted among those with stroke at the right side (p=0.183), pons (p=0.634), bilateral (p=0.776), and midbrain (p=0.336). Conclusion: This study showed that majority of stroke patients were males with average age of 60.50 years. Hypertension was the most common co-morbidity. There was no association between stroke location and depression. The incidence of PSD was 30%.

Keywords: post-stroke depression, co-morbidity, disturbance, bilateral

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Authors: Fergal Fouhy, Alan O’Keeffe, Sean Costelloe, Michael Clarkson

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Background: Sarcoidosis is a systemic, non-infectious disease of unknown aetiology, characterized by non-caseating granulomatous inflammation. The lung is most often affected (90%); however, the condition can affect all organs, including the kidneys. There is limited evidence describing the incidence and characteristics of renal involvement in sarcoidosis. Serum angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) is a recognised biomarker used in the diagnosis and monitoring of sarcoidosis. Methods: A single-centre, retrospective cohort study of patients presenting to Cork University Hospital (CUH) in 2015 with first-time elevations of serum ACE was performed. This included an initial database review of ACE and other biochemistry results, followed by a medical chart review to confirm the presence or absence of sarcoidosis and management thereof. Acute kidney injury (AKI) was staged using the AKIN criteria, and chronic kidney disease (CKD) was staged using the KDIGO criteria. Follow-up was assessed over five years tracking serum creatinine, serum calcium, and estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR). Results: 119 patients were identified as having a first raised serum ACE in 2015. Seventy-nine male patients and forty female patients were identified. The mean age of patients identified was 47 years old. 11% had CKD at baseline. 18% developed an AKI at least once within the next five years. A further 6% developed CKD during this time period. 13% developed hypercalcemia. The patients within the lowest quartile of serums ACE had an incidence of sarcoidosis of 5%. None of this group developed hypercalcemia, 23% developed AKI, and 7% developed CKD. Of the patients with a serum ACE in the highest quartile, almost all had documented diagnoses of sarcoidosis with an incidence of 96%. 3% of this group developed hypercalcemia, 13% AKI and 3% developed CKD. Conclusions: There was an unexpectedly high incidence of AKI in patients who had a raised serum ACE. Not all patients with a raised serum ACE had a confirmed diagnosis of sarcoidosis. There does not appear to be a relationship between increased serum ACE levels and increased incidence of hypercalcaemia, AKI, and CKD. Ideally, all patients should have biopsy-proven sarcoidosis. This is an initial study that should be replicated with larger numbers and including multiple centres.

Keywords: sarcoidosis, acute kidney injury, chronic kidney disease, hypercalcemia

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Authors: Rudra Prasad Khanal

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Introduction: Non-communicable disease, such as cancer, has spread all over the world for some last decades. However, every nation has experienced a burden from the development of technology. In the context of Nepal, 10 to 15 thousand new cancer incidences are being registered in different hospitals for treatment. Since the date of starting nuclear medicine at Bir Hospital in 1998, cancer patients have been getting treatment regularly. According to the data of the population-based cancer registry, approximately 60% of the population having a middle-class income is being affected by cancer in Nepal. Methods and Materials: The study is aimed to find out the particular place where the population density of new cancer incidence is highest in Nepal and to inform the concerned regulatory body that is working on cancer screening and early detection for the proper treatment from the beginning. In order to identify the areas with the highest population density of new cancer incidence, all the data of cancer patients were collected from five different renowned hospitals and also from the population-based cancer registry center and then analyzed the data. The history of cancer patients was studied from 2003 to 2020, but here the data are analyzed from 2015 to 2020 only to find the latest trend in cancer incidence. Results: In the five major hospitals in Nepal, the total new cancer incidence was 61783 from 2015 to 2020. Out of those, 34617 were female, and 27176 were male. This research shows that female cancer patients were more every year. In the male, lung cancer patients more than cancer of other organs, but in females, the number of breast cancer patients was greatest. The age-adjusted mortality rate for males in Kathmandu valley was 36.3, and for females was 27.0 per 100,000 population. The cancer incidence and mortality rate were slightly lesser in other districts of Nepal. This rate increased with the increase in the age of people. Over 60 years, cancer incidence and mortality rates have been found to increase rapidly. Conclusion: This research supports conducting the program of cancer screening and early detection at Kathmandu valley with high priority and then Morang, Rukum, SSDM, etc., to control cancer.

Keywords: cancer incidence, research scholar, Tribhuvan University, Bhaktapur Cancer Hospital, Nepal

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Authors: Rabeab Khunpukdee, Aranya Sukchoui, Nonluk Somgit, Chitima Bunnaul

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Endotracheal displacement is a major risk of life threatening among critically ill patients. Standard nursing protocol is needed to minimize this risk and to improve clinical outcomes. To evaluate the effectiveness of the endothacheal care nursing guideline. The incidence rates of endochacheal displacement, oxygen deficiency after extubation, re-intubation, and nurse’s satisfaction on the utilization of the endotracheal care nursing guideline. An evidence-based nursing practice framework was used to develop the endotracheal care nursing guideline. The guideline valid content was review by a 3 panel of experts. The index of item objective (IOC) of the guideline was 0.93. The guideline was implemented in 130 patients (guideline group) and 19 registered nurses at a medicine ward, Had Yai hospital, Thailand. Patient’s outcomes were evaluated by comparison with those 155 patients who received the routine nursing care (routine care group). Descriptive statistics, frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation and Mann Whitney U-test was analyzed using the computer program. All significantly and better outcomes were found in the guideline group compared to the routine care group. The guideline group has less incidence rates of endotracheal displacement (1.54 % vs 9.03 %, p < 0.05), and none of the guideline group had oxygen deficiency after extubation (0 % vs 83.33%) compared to the routine care group. All of the 2 patients in the guideline group, compared to 6 of 14 patients in the routine care group were re-intubation. The overall rate of re-intubation in the total group (n = 130 vs 155) was seen less in the guideline group than the routine care group (1.54 % vs 3.87). Overall, nurses satisfaction was at high-level (89.50%) on the utilization of the guideline.

Keywords: endotracheal care, nursing guideline, re-intubation, satisfaction

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Authors: Dmitriy Syssoyev, Aslan Seitkamzin, Natalya Lim, Kamilla Mussina, Abduzhappar Gaipov, Dimitri Poddighe, Dinara Galiyeva

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Background: Data on the epidemiology of congenital heart defects (CHD) in Kazakhstan is scarce. Therefore, the aim of this study was to describe the incidence, prevalence and all-cause mortality of patients with CHD in Kazakhstan, using national large-scale registry data from the Unified National Electronic Healthcare System (UNEHS) for the period of 2014-2020. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, the included data pertained to all patients diagnosed with CHD in Kazakhstan and registered in UNEHS between January 2014 and December 2020. CHD was defined based on International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes Q20-Q26. Incidence, prevalence, and all-cause mortality rates were calculated per 100,000 population. Survival analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazards regression modeling and the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: In total, 66,512 patients were identified. Among them, 59,534 (89.5%) were diagnosed with a single CHD, while 6,978 (10.5%) had more than two CHDs. The median age at diagnosis was 0.08 years (interquartile range (IQR) 0.01 – 0.66) for people with multiple CHD types and 0.39 years (IQR 0.04 – 8.38) for those with a single CHD type. The most common CHD types were atrial septal defect (ASD) and ventricular septal defect (VSD), accounting for 25.8% and 21.2% of single CHD cases, respectively. The most common multiple types of CHD were ASD with VSD (23.4%), ASD with patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) (19.5%), and VSD with PDA (17.7%). The incidence rate of CHD decreased from 64.6 to 47.1 cases per 100,000 population among men and from 68.7 to 42.4 among women. The prevalence rose from 66.1 to 334.1 cases per 100,000 population among men and from 70.8 to 328.7 among women. Mortality rates showed a slight increase from 3.5 to 4.7 deaths per 100,000 in men and from 2.9 to 3.7 in women. Median follow-up was 5.21 years (IQR 2.47 – 11.69). Male sex (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.45 - 1.77), having multiple CHDs (HR 2.45, 95% CI 2.01 - 2.97), and living in a rural area (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.19 - 1.47) were associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality. Conclusion: The incidence of CHD in Kazakhstan has shown a moderate decrease between 2014 and 2020, while prevalence and mortality have increased. Male sex, multiple CHD types, and rural residence were significantly associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality.

Keywords: congenital heart defects (CHD), epidemiology, incidence, Kazakhstan, mortality, prevalence

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Authors: Laila Seada, Hanan Oreiby, Fawaz Al Rashid, Ashraf Negm

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Background and Objective: In most areas of the world, the incidence of thyroid cancer has been increasing over the last decade, mostly due to a combination of early detection of the neoplasm resulting from sensitive procedures and increased population exposure to radiation and unrecognized carcinogens. Methods: Cases of thyroid cancer have been retrieved from the cancer registry at King Khalid Hospital during the period from August 2012 to April 2016. Age, gender and histopathologic types have been recorded. Results: Thyroid carcinoma ranked as the second most common malignancy in females (25%) after breast cancer (31%). It constituted 20.8% of all newly diagnosed cancer cases. As for males, it ranked the 4^th type of malignancy after gastrointestinal cancer, lymphomas and soft tissue sarcomas. Mean age for females and males was 38.7 +/- 13.2 and 60.25 +/- 11.5 years, respectively, and the difference between the two groups was statistically significant (p value = 0.0001). Fifty-five (82%) were papillary carcinomas including 10 follicular variant of papillary (FVPC), and eight papillary micro carcinomas (PMC) and two tall cell/oncocytic variants. Follicular carcinomas constituted two (3.1%), while two (3.1%) were anaplastic, and two (3.1%) were medullary. Conclusion: Thyroid cancer incidence in Hail is ranking as the 2^nd most common female malignancy similar to other regions in the Kingdom. However, this high incidence contrasts with much lower rates worldwide.

Keywords: thyroid, hail, papillary, microcarcinoma

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Authors: Baso Hamdani, Arniati Massinai, Jamaluddin Jompa

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Coral diseases are one of the factors affect reef degradation. This research had analysed the progression rate, incidence, and prevalence of Black Band Disease (BBD) on stony coral (Pachyseris sp.) in relation to the environmental parameters (pH, nitrate, phospate, Dissolved Organic Matter (DOM), and turbidity). The incidence of coral disease was measured weekly for 6 weeks using Belt Transect Method. The progression rate of BBD was measured manually. Furthermore, the prevalence and incidence of BBD were calculated each colonies infected. The relationship between environmental parameters and the progression rate, prevalence and incidence of BBD was analysed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The results showed the average of progression rate is 0,07 ± 0,02 cm/ hari. The prevalence of BBD increased from 0,92% - 19,73% in 7 weeks observation with the average incidence of new infected colonies coral 0,2 - 0,65 colony/day The environment factors which important were pH, Nitrate, Phospate, DOM, and Turbidity.

Keywords: progression rate, incidence, prevalence, Black Band Disease, Barranglompo

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Authors: Hattie Hope Makumbe, Bhekisisa Dlamini, Frederick Tabit

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Listeria monocytogenes is one of the most important foodborne pathogens associated with ready-to-eat (RTE) food. This study investigated the incidence of Listeria monocytogenes in 80 RTE food sold in the formal (dairy and processed meat) and informal markets (vegetable salads, beef stew, and rice) of Johannesburg, South Africa. High Enterobacteriaceae, S. aureus, and E. coli counts were obtained, which ranged from 1.9-7.5 log CFU/g. Listeria monocytogenes microbial counts in the food samples ranged from 3.5-6.0 log colony forming unit per gram except in cooked rice. The Listeria monocytogenes isolates were identified using biochemical tests and confirmed with the Biolog identification system and PCR analyses. The percentage incidence for Listeria monocytogenes in ready to eat food was 12.5%. When Minimum Inhibitory Concentrations were under consideration, all disinfectants were effective against Listeria monocytogenes strains. For antimicrobial work, rates of resistance amongst the antibiotics ranged from 17-100%. Therefore, more effective preventive control strategies for Listeria monocytogenes are needed to reduce the prevalence of the pathogen in RTE food that is sold in Johannesburg.

Keywords: Listeria monocytogenes, Listeria species, ready to eat food, sanitiser efficacy

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Authors: Ann Enright

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More than ever, animal shelters need to identify ways to reduce the number of animals entering shelter facilities and the incidence of euthanasia. Managing animal overpopulation using euthanasia can have detrimental health and emotional consequences for the shelter staff involved. There are also community expectations with moral and financial implications to consider. To achieve the goals of reducing animal intake and the incidence of euthanasia, shelter best practice involves combining programs, procedures and partnerships to increase live release rates (LRR), reduce the incidence of disease, length of stay (LOS) and shelter intake whilst overall remaining financially viable. Analysing daily processes, tracking outcomes and implementing simple strategies enabled shelter staff to more effectively focus their efforts and achieve amazing results. The objective of this retrospective study was to assess the effect of implementing the capacity for care (C4C) management model. Data focusing on the average daily number of animals on site for a two year period (2016 – 2017) was exported from a shelter management system, Customer Logic (CL) Vet to Excel for manipulation and comparison. Following the implementation of C4C practices the average daily number of animals on site was reduced by >50%, (2016 average 103 compared to 2017 average 49), average LOS reduced by 50% from 8 weeks to 4 weeks and incidence of disease reduced from ≥ 70% to less than 2% of the cats on site at the completion of the study. The total number of stray cats entering the shelter due to council contracts reduced by 50% (486 to 248). Improved cat outcomes were attributed to strategies that increased adoptions and reduced euthanasia of poorly socialized cats, including foster programs. To continue to achieve improvements in LRR and LOS, strategies to decrease intake further would be beneficial, for example, targeted sterilisation programs. In conclusion, the study highlighted the benefits of using C4C as a management tool, delivering a significant reduction in animal intake and euthanasia with positive emotional, financial and community outcomes.

Keywords: animal welfare, capacity for care, cat, euthanasia, length of stay, managed intake, shelter

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Authors: W. H. Wan Zakiyatussariroh, A. A. Nasuhar, W. Y. Wan Fairos, Z. A. Nazatul Shahreen

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Forecasting dengue incidence in a population can provide useful information to facilitate the planning of the public health intervention. Many studies on dengue cases in Malaysia were conducted but are limited in modeling the outbreak and forecasting incidence. This article attempts to propose the most appropriate time series model to explain the behavior of dengue incidence in Malaysia for the purpose of forecasting future dengue outbreaks. Several seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models were developed to model Malaysia’s number of dengue incidence on weekly data collected from January 2001 to December 2011. SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 model was found to be the most suitable model for Malaysia’s dengue incidence with the least value of Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) for in-sample fitting. The models further evaluate out-sample forecast accuracy using four different accuracy measures. The results indicate that SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 performed well for both in-sample fitting and out-sample evaluation.

Keywords: time series modeling, Box-Jenkins, SARIMA, forecasting

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Authors: Krupali Mukeshkumar, Jinesh Shah

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Background: Bilateral Sagittal Split Osteotomy (BSSO), used for the correction of mandibular deformities, is a common oral and maxillofacial surgical procedure. Inferior alveolar nerve dysfunction is commonly reported post-operatively by patients as paresthesia or anesthesia. The current literature lacks a consensus on the incidence of inferior alveolar nerve dysfunction as patients are not routinely assessed pre and post-operatively with an objective assessment. The range of incidence varies from 9% to 85% of patients, with some authors arguing that 100% of patients experience nerve dysfunction immediately post-surgery. Systematic reviews have shown a difference between incidence rates at different follow-up periods using objective and subjective methods. Aim: To identify the incidence of inferior alveolar nerve dysfunction following BSSO. Gold standard: Nerve dysfunction incidence rates similar or lower than current literature of 83% day one post-operatively and 18.4% at one year follow up. Setting: A retrospective cross-sectional audit of patients treated between 2017-2019 at the Royal Stoke University Hospital, Maxillofacial and Orthodontic departments. Sample: All patients who underwent a BSSO (with or without le fort one osteotomy) between 2017–2019 were identified from the database. Patients with pre-existing neurosensory disturbance, those who had a genioplasty at the same time and those with no follow-up were excluded. The sample consisted of 121 patients, 37 males and 84 females between the ages of 17-50 years at the time of surgery. Methods: Clinical records of 121 cases were reviewed to assess the age, sex, type of mandibular osteotomy, status of the nerve during the surgical procedure, type of bony split and incidence of nerve dysfunction at follow-up appointments. The surgical procedure was carried out by three Maxillo-facial surgeons and follow-up appointments were carried out in the Orthodontic and Oral and Maxillo-facial departments. Results: 120 patients were treated to correct the mandibular facial deformity and 1 patient was treated for sleep apnoea. Seventeen patients had a mandibular setback and 104 patients had mandibular advancement. 68 patients reported inferior alveolar nerve dysfunction at one week following their surgery. Seventy-six patients had temporary paresthesia present between 2 weeks and 12 months post-surgery. 13 patients had persistent nerve dysfunction at 12 months, of which 1 had a bad bony split during the BSSO. The incidence of nerve dysfunction postoperatively was 6.6% after 1 day, 56.1% at 1 week, 62.8% at 2 weeks, 59.5% between 3-6 weeks, 43.0% between 8-16 weeks and 10.7% at 1 year. Conclusions: The results of this audit show a similar incidence rate to the research gold standard at the one-year follow-up. Future Recommendations: No changes to surgical procedure or technique are indicated, but a need for improved documentation and a standardized approach for assessment of post-operative nerve dysfunction would be beneficial.

Keywords: bilateral sagittal split osteotomy, inferior alveolar nerve, mandible, nerve dysfunction

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Authors: Muhammad Asim Nazir

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The investigations reported in this manuscript were carried on the screening of one hundred and seventy-eight chickpea germplasm lines/cultivars against wilt disease, caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. ciceris. The screening was conducted in vivo (field) conditions. The field screening was accompanied with the study of some epidemiological factors affecting the occurrence and severity of the disease. Among the epidemiological factors maximum temperature range (28-40°C), minimum temperature range (12-24°C), relative humidity (19-44%), soil temperature (26-41°C) and soil moisture range (19-34°C) was studied for affecting the disease incidence/severity. The results revealed that air temperature was positively correlated with diseases. Soil temperature data revealed that in all cultivars disease incidence was maximum as 39°C. Most of the plants show 40-50% disease incidence. Disease incidence decreased at 33.5°C. The result of correlation of relative humidity of air and wilt incidence revealed that all cultivars/lines were negatively correlated with relative humidity. With increasing relative humidity wilt incidence decreased and vice versa.

Keywords: chickpea, epidemiological, screening, disease

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Authors: K. O. Ogbedeh, C. P. Ekwe, G. O. Ihejirika, S. A. Dialoke, O. P. Onyewuchi, C. P. Anyanwu, I. E. Kalu

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As one of the major pests of field crops, termites attack groundnut at all stages of its development, especially during prolonged dry spell. Effect of palm bunch ash and neem(Azardirachta indica A. Juss) leaf powder on termite infestation in groundnut field in Owerri, Nigeria was investigated in this study. The field trial was carried out in 2016 at the Teaching and Research Farm of the Federal University of Technology, Owerri, Nigeria. The experiment was laid out in a 3x3 Factorial fitted into a Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) with three replications. The treatments include three rates of palm bunch ash at 0.0 (control), 1.0 and 2.0tons/ha and three rates of neem leaf powder at 0.0(control), 1.0, 2.0 tons/ha respectively. Data were collected on percentage emergence, termite incidence and termite severity. These were subjected to analysis of variance (ANOVA), and means were separated using least significant difference at 5% level of probability. The result shows that there were no significant (P= 0.05) differences in percentage emergence amongst treatment means due to palm bunch ash and neem leaf powder applications. Contrarily, palm bunch ash at 2.0 tons/ha recorded the least termite incidence especially at twelve weeks after planting (12WAP) with a value of 22.20% while control plot maintained highest values at 6WAP (48.70%) and 12WAP (48.30%) respectively. Also palm bunch ash at 2.0tons/ha depressed termite severity more than other treatments especially at 2 and 4 WAP (0.56) respectively. Control plots on the other hand consistently maintained highest termite severity throughout the trial with the highest value at 2 and 12WAP (1.56). Conclusively, palm bunch ash exhibited highest depressive action against termite on groundnut especially at higher application value (2.0tons/ha).

Keywords: groundnut, incidence, neem, palm, severity, termites

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Authors: Lakmali Anthony, Madeline Gillies

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Background: Incisional and ventral hernias are highly prevalent, with primary ventral hernias occurring in approximately 20% of adults and incisional hernias developing in up to 30% of midline abdominal incisions. Recent data from the United States have shown an increasing incidence of elective incisional and ventral hernia repair (IVHR) and emergency repair of complicated hernias. This study examines Australian population trends in IVHR over a two-decade study period. Methods: This retrospective study was performed using procedure data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, and population data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics captured between 2000 and 2021 to calculate incidence rates per 100,000 population by age and sex for selected subcategories of IVHR operations. Trends over time were evaluated using simple linear regression. Results: There were 809,308 IVHR operations performed in Australia during the study period. The cumulative incidence adjusted for the population was 182 per 100,000; this increased by 9.578 per year during the study period (95% CI = 8.431- 10.726, p<.001). IVHR for primary umbilical hernias experienced the most significant increase in population-adjusted incidence, 1.177 per year. (95% CI = 0.654- 1.701, p<.001). Emergency IVHR for incarcerated, obstructed, and strangulated hernias increased by 0.576 per year (95% CI = 0.510 -0.642, p<.001). Only 20.2% of IVHR procedures were performed as day surgery. Conclusions: Australia has seen a significant increase in IVHR operations performed in the last 20 years, particularly those for primary ventral hernias. IVHR for hernias complicated by incarceration, obstruction, and strangulation also increased significantly. The proportion of IVHR operations performed as day surgery is well below the target set by the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons. With the increasing incidence of IVHR operations and an increasing proportion of these being emergent, elective IVHR should be performed as day surgery when it is safe.

Keywords: ventral, incisional, hernia, trends

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Authors: Iqbal Ahmed Chowdhury

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Diarrhea is considered to be one of the influential factors of child death in Bangladesh. While it is known that diarrhea is a water-driven disease, due to the lack of studies, little is known about the extent to which various feeding patterns contribute to such an incidence. Our paper intends to fill this gap by looking into different feeding patterns and their influence on diarrhea incidence among children in Bangladesh. Using data collected for the Demographic and Health Survey, 2014, this paper reveals that feeding patterns can influence the diarrhea incidence among this group of children to a great extent. This paper finds that the incidence of diarrhea is likely to elevate if diarrhea-affected children are fed plain water from any source and any kind of juice. However, breastfeeding, feeding soup or clear broth, prescribed baby food, and clean water from a tube well tend to help fight diarrhea incidence among children in Bangladesh. The results are found to be consistent even after controlling for sociodemographic variables, including age and sex of children, age and education qualification of the parent, and the number of children in the family. The results of this study could contribute to treating diarrhea among children in Bangladesh as well as similar other countries in the world.

Keywords: feeding patterns, diarrhea, Bangladesh, children

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Authors: Ayeshmanthe Rathnayake, Siew Goh, Carmel Fenton, Ashutosh Hardikar

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Post-Operative Atrial Fibrillation (POAF) is the most frequent complication of cardiac surgery and is associated with reduced survival, increased rates of cognitive changes and cerebrovascular accident, heart failure, renal dysfunction, infection and length of stay, and hospital costs. Cardiac tamponade, although less common, carries high morbidity and mortality. Shed mediastinal blood in the pericardial space is a major source of intrapericardial oxidative stress and inflammation that triggers POAF. The utilisation of a left posterior pericardiotomy aims to shunt blood from the pericardium into the pleural space and have a role in the prevention of POAF as well as cardiac tamponade. 2118 patients had undergone isolated Coronary Artery Bypass Graft (CABG) at Royal Hobart Hospital from 2008-2021. They were divided into pericardiotomy vs control group. Patient baseline demographics, intraoperative data, and post-operative outcomes were reviewed retrospectively. Total incidence of new POAF and cardiac tamponade was 26.1% and 0.75%, respectively. Primary outcome of both the incidence of POAF(22.9% vs27.8%OR 0.77 p<0.05) and Cardiac Tamponade (0% vs 1.1% OR 0.85 p<0.05) were less in the pericardiotomy group.Increasing age, BMI, poor left ventricular function (EF <30%), and return to theatre were independent predictors of developing POAF. There were similar rates of return to theatre for bleeding however, no cases of tamponade in the pericardiotomy group. There were no complications attributable to left posterior pericardiotomy and the time added to the duration of surgery was minimal. Left posterior pericardiotomy is associated with a significant reduction in the incidence of POAFand cardiac tamponade and issafe and efficient.

Keywords: cardiac surgery, pericardiotomy, post-operative atrial fibrillation, cardiac tamponade

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Authors: Asim Abbasi, Amer Habib, Sajid Hussain, Muhammad Sufyan, Iqra, Hasnain Sajjad

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Except for few scattered cases, powdery mildew disease was not a big problem for watermelon in the past but with the outbreaks of its pathotypes, races 1W and 2W, this disease becomes a serious issue all around the globe. The severe outbreak of this disease also increased the rate of fungicide application for its proper management. Twelve varieties of watermelon were screened in Research Area of Department of Plant pathology, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad to check the incidence of powdery mildew disease. Disease inoculum was prepared and applied with the help of foliar spray method. Fungicides and plants extracts were also applied after the disease incidence. Percentage leaf surface area diseased was assessed visually with a modified Horsfall-Barratt scale. The results of the experiment revealed that among all varieties, WT2257 and Zcugma F1 were highly resistant showing less than 5% disease incidence while Anar Kali and Sugar baby were highly susceptible with disease incidence of more than 65%. Among botanicals neem extract gave best results with disease incidence of less than 20%. Besides neem, all other botanicals also gave significant control of powdery mildew disease than the untreated check. In case of fungicides, Gemstar showed least disease incidence i.e. < 10%, however besides control maximum disease incidence was observed in Curzate (> 30%).

Keywords: botanicals, fungicides, pathotypes, powdery mildew

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Authors: Mei Han, Jinkou Zhao, Yuan Yao, Liangui Feng, Xianbin Ding, Guohui Wu, Chao Zhou, Lin Ouyang, Rongrong Lu, Bo Zhang

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To compare the HIV incidence estimated using BED capture enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (BED-CEIA) and observed in a cohort against the HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM) measured by pooling polymerase chain reaction (pooling-PCR). A total of 617 MSM subjects were included in a respondent driven sampling survey in Chongqing in 2008. Among the 129 that were tested HIV antibody positive, 102 were defined with long-term infection, 27 were assessed for recent HIV infection (RHI) using BED-CEIA. The remaining 488 HIV negative subjects were enrolled to the prospective cohort and followed-up every 6 months to monitor HIV seroconversion. All of the 488 HIV negative specimens were assessed for acute HIV infection (AHI) using pooling-PCR. Among the 488 negative subjects in the open cohort, 214 (43.9%) were followed-up for six months, with 107 person-years of observation and 14 subjects seroconverted. The observed HIV incidence was 12.5 per 100 person-years (95% CI=9.1-15.7). Among the 488 HIV negative specimens, 5 were identified with acute HIV infection using pooling-PCR at an annual rate of 14.02% (95% CI=1.73-26.30). The estimated HIV-1 incidence was 12.02% (95% CI=7.49-16.56) based on BED-CEIA. The HIV incidence estimated with three different approaches was different among subgroups. In the highly HIV prevalent MSM, it costs US$ 1724 to detect one AHI case, while detection of one case of RHI with BED assay costs only US$ 42. Three approaches generated comparable and high HIV incidences, pooling PCR and prospective cohort are more close to the true level of incidence, while BED-CEIA seemed to be the most convenient and economical approach for at-risk population’s HIV incidence evaluation at the beginning of HIV pandemic. HIV-1 incidences were alarmingly high among MSM population in Chongqing, particularly within the subgroup under 25 years of age and those migrants aged between 25 to 34 years.

Keywords: BED-CEIA, HIV, incidence, pooled PCR, prospective cohort

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Authors: Zainab A. Alaghbri, Labiba A., Esam A.

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Tuberculosis (TB) is the fourth leading cause of death in Yemen and is considered a major priority by the Ministry of Public Health. The war in Yemen has led to the emergence of one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world. These circumstances may lead to exacerbate the situation of tuberculosis. This study aims to describe the trend and incidence of TB in north and east governorates, Yemen 2019-2021 and provide recommendations for interventions. A descriptive analysis was conducted during July to September 2022. Data of TB cases were obtained from the national tuberculosis program as soft copy. The Data included the TB case collected and diagnosed during 2019-2021. The data contains the following variables: Sex, age, governorates, smear-positive cases, extra-pulmonary cases, and treatment outcomes. 16791 TB cases were notified for an overall case notification rate 65.5/100000 for all forms (smear positive and Extra-pulmonary), There was a slightly declined in 2020 and 2021 by 1%. Both the pulmonary smear positive and Extra pulmonary rates were slightly decreased from 8.8 to 7.7 and 13.5 to 12.8 / 100, 000 populations respectively. For Tuberculosis cases by type of patient, the incidence of extra-pulmonary was the highest (12,9, 11.3 and 12,2/100000) over the three years. However, the incidence of pulmonary failure was the lowest. The majority of cases were in the age group 25-34. The overall treatment success rate for smear-positive patients was 88%. Of the 627 patients with documented unsuccessful outcomes (e.g., failure, death, and default), 165 (23%) died, 52 (8.3%) failed treatment, and 410 (65%) defaulted. Overall, the magnitude of tuberculosis decreased over the periods reviewed. The proportion of Extra-pulmonary TB was the highest. The success rate achieved after treatment was below the levels established by the WHO End Tuberculosis Strategy (90%). Failure to complete treatment may be responsible for the low success rate. Monitoring and addressing the risk factors that were associated with treatment outcomes and duration may help improve the likelihood of achieving favorable outcomes among cases of smear-positive pulmonary TB.

Keywords: tuberculosis, trend, incidence, yemen

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Authors: Kim Kennedy, Daren Gibson, Stephanie Flukes, Chandra Diwakarla, Lisa Spalding, Leanne Pilkington, Andrew Redfern

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Introduction: Head and neck cancers (HNC) are often associated with the development of non-HNC primaries, as the risk factors that predispose patients to HNC are often risk factors for other cancers. Aim: We sought to evaluate whether there was an increased risk of smoking and alcohol-related cancers and also other cancers in HNC patients and to evaluate whether there is a difference between the rates of non-HNC primaries in Aboriginal compared with non-Aboriginal HNC patients. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort analysis of 320 HNC patients from a single center in Western Australia, identifying 80 Aboriginal and 240 non-Aboriginal patients matched on a 1:3 ratio by sites, histology, rurality, and age. We collected data on the patient characteristics, tumour features, treatments, outcomes, and past and subsequent HNCs and non-HNC primaries. Results: In the overall study population, there were 86 patients (26.9%) with a metachronous or synchronous non-HNC primary. Non-HNC primaries were actually significantly more common in the non-Aboriginal population compared with the Aboriginal population (30% vs. 17.5%, p=0.02); however, half of these were patients with cutaneous squamous or basal cell carcinomas (cSCC/BCC) only. When cSCC/BCCs were excluded, non-Aboriginal patients had a similar rate as Aboriginal patients (16.7% vs. 15%, p=0.73). There were clearly more cSCC/BCCs in non-Aboriginal patients compared with Aboriginal patients (16.7% vs. 2.5%, p=0.001) and more patients with melanoma (2.5% vs. 0%, p value not significant (p=NS). Rates of most cancers were similar between non-Aboriginal and Aboriginal patients, including prostate (2.9% vs. 3.8%), colorectal (2.9% vs. 2.5%), kidney (1.2% vs. 1.2%), and these rates appeared comparable to Australian Age Standardised Incidence Rates (ASIR) in the general community. Oesophageal cancer occurred at double the rate in Aboriginal patients (3.8%) compared with non-Aboriginal patients (1.7%), which was far in excess of ASIRs which estimated a lifetime risk of 0.59% in the general population. Interestingly lung cancer rates did not appear to be significantly increased in our cohort, with 2.5% of Aboriginal patients and 3.3% of non-Aboriginal patients having lung cancer, which is in line with ASIRs which estimates a lifetime risk of 5% (by age 85yo). Interestingly the rate of Glioma in the non-Aboriginal population was higher than the ASIR, with 0.8% of non-Aboriginal patients developing Glioma, with Australian averages predicting a 0.6% lifetime risk in the general population. As these are small numbers, this finding may well be due to chance. Unsurprisingly, second HNCs occurred at an increased incidence in our cohort, in 12.5% of Aboriginal patients and 11.2% of non-Aboriginal patients, compared to an ASIR of 17 cases per 100,000 persons, estimating a lifetime risk of 1.70%. Conclusions: Overall, 26.9% of patients had a non-HNC primary. When cSCC/BCCs were excluded, Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal patients had similar rates of non-HNC primaries, although non-Aboriginal patients had a significantly higher rate of cSCC/BCCs. Aboriginal patients had double the rate of oesophageal primaries; however, this was not statistically significant, possibly due to small case numbers.

Keywords: head and neck cancer, synchronous and metachronous primaries, other primaries, Aboriginal

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Authors: C. Romero, R. Ortega, P. Sánchez-Camacho, P. Aguilar, V. Segur, J. Ruiz, G. Gutiérrez

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Introduction: Breast cancer is a leading cause of death in CLM. (2.8% of all deaths in women and 13,8% of deaths from tumors in womens). It is the most tumor incidence in CLM region with 26.1% from all tumours, except nonmelanoma skin (Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, Volume X, IARC). Cancer registries are a good information source to estimate cancer incidence, however the data are usually available with a lag which makes difficult their use for health managers. By contrast, mortality and survival statistics have less delay. In order to serve for resource planning and responding to this problem, a method is presented to estimate the incidence of mortality and survival data. Objectives: To estimate the incidence of breast cancer by age group in CLM in the period 1991-2013. Comparing the data obtained from the model with current incidence data. Sources: Annual number of women by single ages (National Statistics Institute). Annual number of deaths by all causes and breast cancer. (Mortality Registry CLM). The Breast cancer relative survival probability. (EUROCARE, Spanish registries data). Methods: A Weibull Parametric survival model from EUROCARE data is obtained. From the model of survival, the population and population data, Mortality and Incidence Analysis MODel (MIAMOD) regression model is obtained to estimate the incidence of cancer by age (1991-2013). Results: The resulting model is: Ix,t = Logit [const + age1*x + age2*x2 + coh1*(t – x) + coh2*(t-x)2] Where: Ix,t is the incidence at age x in the period (year) t; the value of the parameter estimates is: const (constant term in the model) = -7.03; age1 = 3.31; age2 = -1.10; coh1 = 0.61 and coh2 = -0.12. It is estimated that in 1991 were diagnosed in CLM 662 cases of breast cancer (81.51 per 100,000 women). An estimated 1,152 cases (112.41 per 100,000 women) were diagnosed in 2013, representing an increase of 40.7% in gross incidence rate (1.9% per year). The annual average increases in incidence by age were: 2.07% in women aged 25-44 years, 1.01% (45-54 years), 1.11% (55-64 years) and 1.24% (65-74 years). Cancer registries in Spain that send data to IARC declared 2003-2007 the average annual incidence rate of 98.6 cases per 100,000 women. Our model can obtain an incidence of 100.7 cases per 100,000 women. Conclusions: A sharp and steady increase in the incidence of breast cancer in the period 1991-2013 is observed. The increase was seen in all age groups considered, although it seems more pronounced in young women (25-44 years). With this method you can get a good estimation of the incidence.

Keywords: breast cancer, incidence, cancer registries, castilla-la mancha

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Authors: P. H. G. J. Pushpakumara, Andrew Dawson

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Introduction: Deliberate self harm (DSH) is a major public health problem globally. Suicide rates of Sri Lanka are being among the highest national rates in the world, since 1950. Previous DSH is the most important independent predictor of repetition. The estimated 1 year non-fatal repeat self-harm rate was 16.3%. Asian countries had considerably lower rate, 10.0%. Objectives: To calculate incidence of deliberate self-poisoning (DSP) and suicides, repetition rate of DSP in Kurunegala District (KD). To determine the pattern of repeated DSP in KD. Methods: Study had two components. In the first component, demographic and event related details of, DSP admission in 46 hospitals and suicides in 28 police stations of KD were collected for 3 years from January 2011. Demographic details of cohort of DSP patients admitted to above hospitals in 2011 were linked with hospital admissions and police records of next two years period from the index admission. Records were screened for links with high sensitivity using the computer then did manual matching which would have been much more specific. In the second component, randomly selected DSP patients (n=438), who admitted to main referral centre which receives 60% of DSP cases of the district, were interviewed to assess life-time repetition. Results: There were 16,993 DSP admissions and 1078 suicides for the three year period. Suicide incidences in KD were, 21.6, 20.7 and 24.3 per 100,000 population in 2011, 2012 and 2013. Average male to female ratio for suicide incidences was 5.5. DSP incidences were 205.4, 248.3 and 202.5 per 100,000 population. Male incidences were slightly greater than the female incidences, male: female ratio was 1.1:1. Highest age standardized male and female incidence was reported in 20-24 years age group, 769.6/100,000, and 15-19 years age group 1304.0/100,000. Male to female ratio of the incidence increased with the age. There were 318 (179 male and 139 female) patients attempted DSH within two years. Female repetitive patients were ounger compared to the males, p < 0.0001, median age: males 28 and females 19 years. 290 (91.2%) had only one repetitive attempt, 24 (7.5%) had two, 3 (0.9%) had three and one (0.3%) had four in that period. One year repetition rate was 5.6 and two year repetition rate was 7.9%. Average intervals between indexed events and first repetitive DSP events were 246.8 (SD:223.4) and 238.5 (SD:207.0) days among males and females. One fifth of first repetitive events occurred within first two weeks in both males and females. Around 50% of males and females had the second event within 28 weeks. Within the first year of the indexed event, around 70% had the second event. First repetitive event was fatal for 28 (8.8%) individuals. Ages of those who died, mean 49.7 years (SD:15.3), were significantly higher compared to those who had non-fatal outcome, p<0.0001. 9.5% had life time history of DSH attempts. Conclusions: Both, DSP and suicide incidences were very high in KD. However, repetition rates were lesser compared regional values. Prevention of repetition alone may not produce significant impact on prevention of DSH.

Keywords: deliberate self-harm, incidence, repetition, Sri Lanka, suicide

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