Search results for: hidden markov models

Authors: Jingyuan Hu, Zhandong Liu

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CRISPR genome editing technology has transformed molecular biology by accurately targeting and altering an organism’s DNA. Despite the state-of-art precision of CRISPR genome editing, the imprecise mutation outcome and off-target effects present considerable risk, potentially leading to unintended genetic changes. Targeted deep sequencing, combined with bioinformatics sequence alignment, can detect such unwanted mutations. Nevertheless, the classical method, Needleman-Wunsch (NW) algorithm may produce false alignment outcomes, resulting in inaccurate mutation identification. The key to precisely identifying CRISPR-induced mutations lies in determining optimal parameters for the sequence alignment algorithm. Hidden Markov models (HMM) are ideally suited for this task, offering flexibility across CRISPR systems by leveraging forward-backward algorithms for parameter estimation. In this study, we introduce CRISPR-HMM, a statistical software to precisely call CRISPR-induced mutations. We demonstrate that the software significantly improves precision in identifying CRISPR-induced mutations compared to NW-based alignment, thereby enhancing the overall understanding of the CRISPR gene-editing process.

Keywords: CRISPR, HMM, sequence alignment, gene editing

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Authors: Ali Isapour, Ramin Nateghi

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— Markov parameters are unique parameters of the system and remain unchanged under similarity transformations. Markov parameters from a power series that is convergent only if the system matrix’s eigenvalues are inside the unity circle. Therefore, Markov parameters of a stable discrete-time system are convergent. In this study, we aim to realize the system based on Markov parameters by using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and this end, we use Flexible Neural Networks. Realization means determining the elements of matrices A, B, C, and D.

Keywords: Markov parameters, realization, activation function, flexible neural network

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Authors: Irina A. Gudkova, Yousra Demigha

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Scientific research is moving more and more towards the study of complex systems in several areas of economics, biology physics, and computer science. In this paper, we will work on complex systems in communication networks, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) that are considered as stochastic systems composed of interacting entities. The current advancements of the sensing in computing and communication systems is an investment ground for research in several tracks. A detailed presentation was made for the WSN, their use, modeling, different problems that can occur in their application and some solutions. The main goal of this work reintroduces the idea of mean field method since it is a powerful technique to solve this type of models especially systems that evolve according to a Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC). Modeling of a CTMC has been focused; we obtained a large system of interacting Continuous Time Markov Chain with population entities. The main idea was to work on one entity and replace the others with an average or effective interaction. In this context to make the solution easier, we consider a wireless sensor network as a multi-body problem and we reduce it to one body problem. The method was applied to a system of WSN modeled as a Markovian queue showing the results of the used technique.

Keywords: Continuous-Time Markov Chain, Hidden Markov Chain, mean field method, Wireless sensor networks

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Authors: Suparman

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Piecewise linear regression models are very flexible models for modeling the data. If the piecewise linear regression models are matched against the data, then the parameters are generally not known. This paper studies the problem of parameter estimation of piecewise linear regression models. The method used to estimate the parameters of picewise linear regression models is Bayesian method. But the Bayes estimator can not be found analytically. To overcome these problems, the reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of the parameters of picewise linear regression models. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of picewise linear regression models.

Keywords: regression, piecewise, Bayesian, reversible Jump MCMC

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Authors: Yina F. Muñoz, Alexander Paz, Hanns De La Fuente-Mella, Joaquin V. Fariña, Guilherme M. Sales

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The primary approach for estimating bridge deterioration uses Markov-chain models and regression analysis. Traditional Markov models have problems in estimating the required transition probabilities when a small sample size is used. Often, reliable bridge data have not been taken over large periods, thus large data sets may not be available. This study presents an important change to the traditional approach by using the Small Data Method to estimate transition probabilities. The results illustrate that the Small Data Method and traditional approach both provide similar estimates; however, the former method provides results that are more conservative. That is, Small Data Method provided slightly lower than expected bridge condition ratings compared with the traditional approach. Considering that bridges are critical infrastructures, the Small Data Method, which uses more information and provides more conservative estimates, may be more appropriate when the available sample size is small. In addition, regression analysis was used to calculate bridge deterioration. Condition ratings were determined for bridge groups, and the best regression model was selected for each group. The results obtained were very similar to those obtained when using Markov chains; however, it is desirable to use more data for better results.

Keywords: concrete bridges, deterioration, Markov chains, probability matrix

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Authors: Shahram Jamali, Samira Hamed

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One of the open issues in Random Early Detection (RED) algorithm is how to set its parameters to reach high performance for the dynamic conditions of the network. Although original RED uses fixed values for its parameters, this paper follows a model-based approach to upgrade performance of the RED algorithm. It models the routers queue behavior by using the Markov model and uses this model to predict future conditions of the queue. This prediction helps the proposed algorithm to make some tunings over RED's parameters and provide efficiency and better performance. Widespread packet level simulations confirm that the proposed algorithm, called Markov-RED, outperforms RED and FARED in terms of queue stability, bottleneck utilization and dropped packets count.

Keywords: active queue management, RED, Markov model, random early detection algorithm

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Authors: Saad M. Darwish, Magda M. Madbouly, Murad B. Khorsheed

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Sign Languages (SL) are the most accomplished forms of gestural communication. Therefore, their automatic analysis is a real challenge, which is interestingly implied to their lexical and syntactic organization levels. Hidden Markov models (HMM’s) have been used prominently and successfully in speech recognition and, more recently, in handwriting recognition. Consequently, they seem ideal for visual recognition of complex, structured hand gestures such as are found in sign language. In this paper, several results concerning static hand gesture recognition using an algorithm based on Type-2 Fuzzy HMM (T2FHMM) are presented. The features used as observables in the training as well as in the recognition phases are based on Singular Value Decomposition (SVD). SVD is an extension of Eigen decomposition to suit non-square matrices to reduce multi attribute hand gesture data to feature vectors. SVD optimally exposes the geometric structure of a matrix. In our approach, we replace the basic HMM arithmetic operators by some adequate Type-2 fuzzy operators that permits us to relax the additive constraint of probability measures. Therefore, T2FHMMs are able to handle both random and fuzzy uncertainties existing universally in the sequential data. Experimental results show that T2FHMMs can effectively handle noise and dialect uncertainties in hand signals besides a better classification performance than the classical HMMs. The recognition rate of the proposed system is 100% for uniform hand images and 86.21% for cluttered hand images.

Keywords: hand gesture recognition, hand detection, type-2 fuzzy logic, hidden Markov Model

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Authors: Mounia El Hafyani, Khalid El Himdi

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Precipitation is one of the key variables in water resource planning. The importance of modeling wet and dry durations is a crucial pointer in engineering hydrology. The objective of this study is to model and analyze the distribution of wet and dry durations. For this purpose, the daily rainfall data from 1967 to 2017 of the Moroccan city of Kenitra’s station are used. Three models are implemented for the distribution of wet and dry durations, namely the first-order Markov chain, the second-order Markov chain, and the truncated negative binomial law. The adherence of the data to the proposed models is evaluated using Chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. The Akaike information criterion is applied to assess the most effective model distribution. We go further and study the law of the number of wet and dry days among k consecutive days. The calculation of this law is done through an algorithm that we have implemented based on conditional laws. We complete our work by comparing the observed moments of the numbers of wet/dry days among k consecutive days to the calculated moment of the three estimated models. The study shows the effectiveness of our approach in modeling wet and dry durations of daily precipitation.

Keywords: Markov chain, rainfall, truncated negative binomial law, wet and dry durations

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Authors: K. Shiba, T. Kaburagi, Y. Kurihara

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With global aging, people who require care, such as people with dementia (PwD), are increasing within many developed countries. And PwDs may wander and unconsciously set foot outdoors, it may lead serious accidents, such as, traffic accidents. Here, round-the-clock monitoring by caregivers is necessary, which can be a burden for the caregivers. Therefore, an automatic wandering detection system is required when an elderly person wanders outdoors, in which case the detection system transmits a ‘moving’ followed by an ‘absence’ state. In this paper, we focus on the transition from the ‘resting’ to the ‘absence’ state, via the ‘moving’ state as one of the wandering transitions. To capture the transition of the three states, our method based on the hidden Markov model (HMM) is built. Using our method, the restraint where the ‘resting’ state and ‘absence’ state cannot be transmitted to each other is applied. To validate our method, we conducted the experiment with 10 subjects. Our results show that the method can classify three states with 0.92 accuracy.

Keywords: wander, microwave Doppler sensor, respiratory frequency band, the state transition, hidden Markov model (HMM).

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Authors: Daleesha M. Viswanathan, Sumam Mary Idicula

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Dynamic hand gestures are an intrinsic component in sign language communication. Extracting spatial temporal features of the hand gesture trajectory plays an important role in a dynamic gesture recognition system. Finding a discrete feature descriptor for the motion trajectory based on the orientation feature is the main concern of this paper. Kalman filter algorithm and Hidden Markov Models (HMM) models are incorporated with this recognition system for hand trajectory tracking and for spatial temporal classification, respectively.

Keywords: orientation features, discrete feature vector, HMM., Indian sign language

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Authors: Issam Alnader, Aboubaker Lasebae, Rand Raheem

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Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) are distributed network systems used in a wide range of applications, including safety-critical systems. The latter provide critical services, often concerned with human life or assets. Therefore, ensuring the dependability requirements of Safety critical systems is of paramount importance. The purpose of this paper is to utilize the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to elongate the service availability of WSNs by increasing the time it takes a node to become obsolete via optimal load balancing. We propose an HMM algorithm that, given a WSN, analyses and predicts undesirable situations, notably, nodes dying unexpectedly or prematurely. We apply this technique to improve on C. Lius’ algorithm, a scheduling-based algorithm which has served to improve the lifetime of WSNs. Our experiments show that our HMM technique improves the lifetime of the network, achieved by detecting nodes that die early and rebalancing their load. Our technique can also be used for diagnosis and provide maintenance warnings to WSN system administrators. Finally, our technique can be used to improve algorithms other than C. Liu’s.

Keywords: wireless sensor networks, IoT, dependability of safety WSNs, energy conservation, sleep awake schedule

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Authors: Josip Visković, Josip Arnerić, Ante Rozga

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Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modelling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.

Keywords: central and east European countries, financial crisis, Markov switching GARCH model, transition probabilities

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Authors: Insaf Ajili, Malik Mallem, Jean-Yves Didier

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Human motion recognition has been extensively increased in recent years due to its importance in a wide range of applications, such as human-computer interaction, intelligent surveillance, augmented reality, content-based video compression and retrieval, etc. However, it is still regarded as a challenging task especially in realistic scenarios. It can be seen as a general machine learning problem which requires an effective human motion representation and an efficient learning method. In this work, we introduce a descriptor based on Laban Movement Analysis technique, a formal and universal language for human movement, to capture both quantitative and qualitative aspects of movement. We use Discrete Hidden Markov Model (DHMM) for training and classification motions. We improve the classification algorithm by proposing two DHMMs for each motion class to process the motion sequence in two different directions, forward and backward. Such modification allows avoiding the misclassification that can happen when recognizing similar motions. Two experiments are conducted. In the first one, we evaluate our method on a public dataset, the Microsoft Research Cambridge-12 Kinect gesture data set (MSRC-12) which is a widely used dataset for evaluating action/gesture recognition methods. In the second experiment, we build a dataset composed of 10 gestures(Introduce yourself, waving, Dance, move, turn left, turn right, stop, sit down, increase velocity, decrease velocity) performed by 20 persons. The evaluation of the system includes testing the efficiency of our descriptor vector based on LMA with basic DHMM method and comparing the recognition results of the modified DHMM with the original one. Experiment results demonstrate that our method outperforms most of existing methods that used the MSRC-12 dataset, and a near perfect classification rate in our dataset.

Keywords: human motion recognition, motion representation, Laban Movement Analysis, Discrete Hidden Markov Model

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Authors: M. Abbasi Layegh, S. Haghipour, K. Athari, R. Khosravi, M. Tafkikialamdari

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An approach to find the optimum mel-frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCCs) for the Radif of Mirzâ Ábdollâh, which is the principal emblem and the heart of Persian music, performed by most famous Iranian masters on two Iranian stringed instruments ‘Tar’ and ‘Setar’ is proposed. While investigating the variance of MFCC for each record in themusic database of 1500 gushe of the repertoire belonging to 12 modal systems (dastgâh and âvâz), we have applied the Fuzzy C-Mean clustering algorithm on each of the 12 coefficient and different combinations of those coefficients. We have applied the same experiment while increasing the number of coefficients but the clustering accuracy remained the same. Therefore, we can conclude that the first 7 MFCCs (V-7MFCC) are enough for classification of The Radif of Mirzâ Ábdollâh. Classical machine learning algorithms such as MLP neural networks, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) have been employed. Finally, it can be realized that SVM shows a better performance in this study.

Keywords: radif of Mirzâ Ábdollâh, Gushe, mel frequency cepstral coefficients, fuzzy c-mean clustering algorithm, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), gaussian mixture model (GMM), hidden markov model (HMM), support vector machine (SVM)

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Authors: Zhifeng Kong

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Over-parameterized neural networks have attracted a great deal of attention in recent deep learning theory research, as they challenge the classic perspective of over-fitting when the model has excessive parameters and have gained empirical success in various settings. While a number of theoretical works have been presented to demystify properties of such models, the convergence properties of such models are still far from being thoroughly understood. In this work, we study the convergence properties of training two-hidden-layer partially over-parameterized fully connected networks with the Rectified Linear Unit activation via gradient descent. To our knowledge, this is the first theoretical work to understand convergence properties of deep over-parameterized networks without the equally-wide-hidden-layer assumption and other unrealistic assumptions. We provide a probabilistic lower bound of the widths of hidden layers and proved linear convergence rate of gradient descent. We also conducted experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets to validate our theory.

Keywords: over-parameterization, rectified linear units ReLU, convergence, gradient descent, neural networks

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Authors: Shih-Kuei Lin

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The characterization of the arbitrage-free dynamics of interest rates is developed in this study under the presence of Markov jump risks, when the term structure of the interest rates is modeled through simple forward rates. We consider Markov jump risks by allowing randomness in jump sizes, independence between jump sizes and jump times. The Markov jump diffusion model is used to capture empirical phenomena and to accurately describe interest jump risks in a financial market. We derive the arbitrage-free model of simple forward rates under the spot measure. Moreover, the analytical pricing formulas for a cap and a floor are derived under the forward measure when the jump size follows a lognormal distribution. In our empirical analysis, we find that the LIBOR market model with Markov jump risk better accounts for changes from/to different states and different rates.

Keywords: arbitrage-free, cap and floor, Markov jump diffusion model, simple forward rate model, volatility smile, EM algorithm

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Authors: Cristóbal Moënne-Loccoz, Rodrigo C. Vergara, Vladimir López, Domingo Mery, Diego Cosmelli

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Our daily interaction with computational interfaces is plagued of situations in which we go from inexperienced users to experts through self-motivated exploration of the same task. In many of these interactions, we must learn to find our way through a sequence of decisions and actions before obtaining the desired result. For instance, when drawing cash from an ATM machine, choices are presented in a step-by-step fashion so that a specific sequence of actions must be performed in order to produce the expected outcome. But, as they become experts in the use of such interfaces, do users adopt specific search and learning strategies? Moreover, if so, can we use this information to follow the process of expertise development and, eventually, predict future actions? This would be a critical step towards building truly adaptive interfaces that can facilitate interaction at different moments of the learning curve. Furthermore, it could provide a window into potential mechanisms underlying decision-making behavior in real world scenarios. Here we tackle this question using a simple game interface that instantiates a 4-level binary decision tree (BDT) sequential decision-making task. Participants have to explore the interface and discover an underlying concept-icon mapping in order to complete the game. We develop a Hidden Markov Model (HMM)-based approach whereby a set of stereotyped, hierarchically related search behaviors act as hidden states. Using this model, we are able to track the decision-making process as participants explore, learn and develop expertise in the use of the interface. Our results show that partitioning the problem space into such stereotyped strategies is sufficient to capture a host of exploratory and learning behaviors. Moreover, using the modular architecture of stereotyped strategies as a Mixture of Experts, we are able to simultaneously ask the experts about the user's most probable future actions. We show that for those participants that learn the task, it becomes possible to predict their next decision, above chance, approximately halfway through the game. Our long-term goal is, on the basis of a better understanding of real-world decision-making processes, to inform the construction of interfaces that can establish dynamic conversations with their users in order to facilitate the development of expertise.

Keywords: behavioral modeling, expertise acquisition, hidden markov models, sequential decision-making

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Authors: Boukelkoul Lahcen

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The cumulative costs for O&M may represent as much as 65%-90% of the turbine's investment cost. Nowadays the cost effectiveness concept becomes a decision-making and technology evaluation metric. The cost of energy metric accounts for the effect replacement cost and unscheduled maintenance cost parameters. One key of the proposed approach is the idea of maintaining the WTs which can be captured via use of a finite state Markov chain. Such a model can be embedded within a probabilistic operation and maintenance simulation reflecting the action to be done. In this paper, an approach of estimating the cost of O&M is presented. The finite state Markov model is used for decision problems with number of determined periods (life cycle) to predict the cost according to various options of maintenance.

Keywords: cost, finite state, Markov model, operation and maintenance

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Authors: H. Hruschka

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This paper presents the first comparison of the performance of the restricted Boltzmann machine and the deep belief net on binary market basket data relative to binary factor analysis and the two best-known topic models, namely Dirichlet allocation and the correlated topic model. This comparison shows that the restricted Boltzmann machine and the deep belief net are superior to both binary factor analysis and topic models. Managerial implications that differ between the investigated models are treated as well. The restricted Boltzmann machine is defined as joint Boltzmann distribution of hidden variables and observed variables (purchases). It comprises one layer of observed variables and one layer of hidden variables. Note that variables of the same layer are not connected. The comparison also includes deep belief nets with three layers. The first layer is a restricted Boltzmann machine based on category purchases. Hidden variables of the first layer are used as input variables by the second-layer restricted Boltzmann machine which then generates second-layer hidden variables. Finally, in the third layer hidden variables are related to purchases. A public data set is analyzed which contains one month of real-world point-of-sale transactions in a typical local grocery outlet. It consists of 9,835 market baskets referring to 169 product categories. This data set is randomly split into two halves. One half is used for estimation, the other serves as holdout data. Each model is evaluated by the log likelihood for the holdout data. Performance of the topic models is disappointing as the holdout log likelihood of the correlated topic model – which is better than Dirichlet allocation - is lower by more than 25,000 compared to the best binary factor analysis model. On the other hand, binary factor analysis on its own is clearly surpassed by both the restricted Boltzmann machine and the deep belief net whose holdout log likelihoods are higher by more than 23,000. Overall, the deep belief net performs best. We also interpret hidden variables discovered by binary factor analysis, the restricted Boltzmann machine and the deep belief net. Hidden variables characterized by the product categories to which they are related differ strongly between these three models. To derive managerial implications we assess the effect of promoting each category on total basket size, i.e., the number of purchased product categories, due to each category's interdependence with all the other categories. The investigated models lead to very different implications as they disagree about which categories are associated with higher basket size increases due to a promotion. Of course, recommendations based on better performing models should be preferred. The impressive performance advantages of the restricted Boltzmann machine and the deep belief net suggest continuing research by appropriate extensions. To include predictors, especially marketing variables such as price, seems to be an obvious next step. It might also be feasible to take a more detailed perspective by considering purchases of brands instead of purchases of product categories.

Keywords: binary factor analysis, deep belief net, market basket analysis, restricted Boltzmann machine, topic models

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Authors: Danny Barash

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Riboswitches are RNA genetic control elements that were originally discovered in bacteria and provide a unique mechanism of gene regulation. They work without the participation of proteins and are believed to represent ancient regulatory systems in the evolutionary timescale. One of the biggest challenges in riboswitch research is that many are found in prokaryotes but only a small percentage of known riboswitches have been found in certain eukaryotic organisms. The few examples of eukaryotic riboswitches were identified using sequence-based bioinformatics search methods that include some slight structural considerations. These pattern-matching methods were the first ones to be applied for the purpose of riboswitch detection and they can also be programmed very efficiently using a data structure called affix arrays, making them suitable for genome-wide searches of riboswitch patterns. However, they are limited by their ability to detect harder to find riboswitches that deviate from the known patterns. Several methods have been developed since then to tackle this problem. The most commonly used by practitioners is Infernal that relies on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and Covariance Models (CMs). Profile Hidden Markov Models were also carried out in the pHMM Riboswitch Scanner web application, independently from Infernal. Other computational approaches that have been developed include RMDetect by the use of 3D structural modules and RNAbor that utilizes Boltzmann probability of structural neighbors. We have tried to incorporate more sophisticated secondary structure considerations based on RNA folding prediction using several strategies. The first idea was to utilize window-based methods in conjunction with folding predictions by energy minimization. The moving window approach is heavily geared towards secondary structure consideration relative to sequence that is treated as a constraint. However, the method cannot be used genome-wide due to its high cost because each folding prediction by energy minimization in the moving window is computationally expensive, enabling to scan only at the vicinity of genes of interest. The second idea was to remedy the inefficiency of the previous approach by constructing a pipeline that consists of inverse RNA folding considering RNA secondary structure, followed by a BLAST search that is sequence-based and highly efficient. This approach, which relies on inverse RNA folding in general and our own in-house fragment-based inverse RNA folding program called RNAfbinv in particular, shows capability to find attractive candidates that are missed by Infernal and other standard methods being used for riboswitch detection. We demonstrate attractive candidates found by both the moving-window approach and the inverse RNA folding approach performed together with BLAST. We conclude that structure-based methods like the two strategies outlined above hold considerable promise in detecting riboswitches and other conserved RNAs of functional importance in a variety of organisms.

Keywords: riboswitches, RNA folding prediction, RNA structure, structure-based methods

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Authors: Hadri Hussain, M.Nasir Ibrahim, Chee-Ming Ting, Mariani Idroas, Fuad Numan, Alias Mohd Noor

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A biometric security system has become an important application in client identification and verification system. A conventional biometric system is normally based on unimodal biometric that depends on either behavioural or physiological information for authentication purposes. The behavioural biometric depends on human body biometric signal (such as speech) and biosignal biometric (such as electrocardiogram (ECG) and phonocardiogram or heart sound (HS)). The speech signal is commonly used in a recognition system in biometric, while the ECG and the HS have been used to identify a person’s diseases uniquely related to its cluster. However, the conventional biometric system is liable to spoof attack that will affect the performance of the system. Therefore, a multimodal biometric security system is developed, which is based on biometric signal of ECG, HS, and speech. The biosignal data involved in the biometric system is initially segmented, with each segment Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC) method is exploited for extracting the feature. The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is used to model the client and to classify the unknown input with respect to the modal. The recognition system involved training and testing session that is known as client identification (CID). In this project, twenty clients are tested with the developed system. The best overall performance at 44 kHz was 93.92% for ECG and the worst overall performance was ECG at 88.47%. The results were compared to the best overall performance at 44 kHz for (20clients) to increment of clients, which was 90.00% for HS and the worst overall performance falls at ECG at 79.91%. It can be concluded that the difference multimodal biometric has a substantial effect on performance of the biometric system and with the increment of data, even with higher frequency sampling, the performance still decreased slightly as predicted.

Keywords: electrocardiogram, phonocardiogram, hidden markov model, mel frequency cepstral coeffiecients, client identification

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Authors: Niroshan K. Walgama Wellalage, Tieling Zhang, Richard Dwight

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State-based Markov deterioration models (SMDM) sometimes fail to find accurate transition probability matrix (TPM) values, and hence lead to invalid future condition prediction or incorrect average deterioration rates mainly due to drawbacks of existing nonlinear optimization-based algorithms and/or subjective function types used for regression analysis. Furthermore, a set of separate functions for each condition state with age cannot be directly derived by using Markov model for a given bridge element group, which however is of interest to industrial partners. This paper presents a new approach for generating Homogeneous SMDM model output, namely, the Modified Weibull approach, which consists of a set of appropriate functions to describe the percentage condition prediction of bridge elements in each state. These functions are combined with Bayesian approach and Metropolis Hasting Algorithm (MHA) based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique for quantifying the uncertainty in model parameter estimates. In this study, factors contributing to rail bridge deterioration were identified. The inspection data for 1,000 Australian railway bridges over 15 years were reviewed and filtered accordingly based on the real operational experience. Network level deterioration model for a typical bridge element group was developed using the proposed Modified Weibull approach. The condition state predictions obtained from this method were validated using statistical hypothesis tests with a test data set. Results show that the proposed model is able to not only predict the conditions in network-level accurately but also capture the model uncertainties with given confidence interval.

Keywords: bridge deterioration modelling, modified weibull approach, MCMC, metropolis-hasting algorithm, bayesian approach, Markov deterioration models

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Authors: Randa Alharbi, Vladislav Vyshemirsky

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Systems biology is an important field in science which focuses on studying behaviour of biological systems. Modelling is required to produce detailed description of the elements of a biological system, their function, and their interactions. A well-designed model requires selecting a suitable mechanism which can capture the main features of the system, define the essential components of the system and represent an appropriate law that can define the interactions between its components. Complex biological systems exhibit stochastic behaviour. Thus, using probabilistic models are suitable to describe and analyse biological systems. Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC) is one of the probabilistic models that describe the system as a set of discrete states with continuous time transitions between them. The system is then characterised by a set of probability distributions that describe the transition from one state to another at a given time. The evolution of these probabilities through time can be obtained by chemical master equation which is analytically intractable but it can be simulated. Uncertain parameters of such a model can be inferred using methods of Bayesian inference. Yet, inference in such a complex system is challenging as it requires the evaluation of the likelihood which is intractable in most cases. There are different statistical methods that allow simulating from the model despite intractability of the likelihood. Approximate Bayesian computation is a common approach for tackling inference which relies on simulation of the model to approximate the intractable likelihood. Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is another approach which is based on using sequential Monte Carlo to estimate intractable likelihood. However, both methods are computationally expensive. In this paper we discuss the efficiency and possible practical issues for each method, taking into account the computational time for these methods. We demonstrate likelihood-free inference by performing analysing a model of the Repressilator using both methods. Detailed investigation is performed to quantify the difference between these methods in terms of efficiency and computational cost.

Keywords: Approximate Bayesian computation(ABC), Continuous-Time Markov Chains, Sequential Monte Carlo, Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC)

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Authors: Leila Jafari, Viliam Makis, G. B. Akram Khaleghei

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In this paper, we present a maintenance model of a two-unit series system with economic dependence. Unit#1, which is considered to be more expensive and more important, is subject to condition monitoring (CM) at equidistant, discrete time epochs and unit#2, which is not subject to CM, has a general lifetime distribution. The multivariate observation vectors obtained through condition monitoring carry partial information about the hidden state of unit#1, which can be in a healthy or a warning state while operating. Only the failure state is assumed to be observable for both units. The objective is to find an optimal opportunistic maintenance policy minimizing the long-run expected average cost per unit time. The problem is formulated and solved in the partially observable semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm for finding the optimal policy and the minimum average cost is developed and illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: condition-based maintenance, semi-Markov decision process, multivariate Bayesian control chart, partially observable system, two-unit system

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Authors: B. R. Campomanes-Alvarez, P. Quiros, B. Fernandez

Abstract:

Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) is a machine-based process of decoding and transcribing oral speech. A typical ASR system receives acoustic input from a speaker or an audio file, analyzes it using algorithms, and produces an output in the form of a text. Some speech recognition systems use Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to deal with the temporal variability of speech and Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) to determine how well each state of each HMM fits a short window of frames of coefficients that represents the acoustic input. Another way to evaluate the fit is to use a feed-forward neural network that takes several frames of coefficients as input and produces posterior probabilities over HMM states as output. Deep neural networks (DNNs) that have many hidden layers and are trained using new methods have been shown to outperform GMMs on a variety of speech recognition systems. Acoustic models for state-of-the-art ASR systems are usually training on massive amounts of data. However, audio files with their corresponding transcriptions can be difficult to obtain, especially in the Spanish language. Hence, in the case of these low-resource scenarios, building an ASR model is considered as a complex task due to the lack of labeled data, resulting in an under-trained system. Semi-supervised learning approaches arise as necessary tasks given the high cost of transcribing audio data. The main goal of this proposal is to develop a procedure based on acoustic semi-supervised learning for Spanish ASR systems by using DNNs. This semi-supervised learning approach consists of: (a) Training a seed ASR model with a DNN using a set of audios and their respective transcriptions. A DNN with a one-hidden-layer network was initialized; increasing the number of hidden layers in training, to a five. A refinement, which consisted of the weight matrix plus bias term and a Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) training were also performed. The objective function was the cross-entropy criterion. (b) Decoding/testing a set of unlabeled data with the obtained seed model. (c) Selecting a suitable subset of the validated data to retrain the seed model, thereby improving its performance on the target test set. To choose the most precise transcriptions, three confidence scores or metrics, regarding the lattice concept (based on the graph cost, the acoustic cost and a combination of both), was performed as selection technique. The performance of the ASR system will be calculated by means of the Word Error Rate (WER). The test dataset was renewed in order to extract the new transcriptions added to the training dataset. Some experiments were carried out in order to select the best ASR results. A comparison between a GMM-based model without retraining and the DNN proposed system was also made under the same conditions. Results showed that the semi-supervised ASR-model based on DNNs outperformed the GMM-model, in terms of WER, in all tested cases. The best result obtained an improvement of 6% relative WER. Hence, these promising results suggest that the proposed technique could be suitable for building ASR models in low-resource environments.

Keywords: automatic speech recognition, deep neural networks, machine learning, semi-supervised learning

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Authors: Katja Ignatieva, Patrick Wong

Abstract:

We investigated the dynamics of high frequency energy prices, including crude oil and electricity prices. The returns of underlying quantities are modelled using various parametric models such as stochastic framework with jumps and stochastic volatility (SVCJ) as well as non-parametric alternatives, which are purely data driven and do not require specification of the drift or the diffusion coefficient function. Using different statistical criteria, we investigate the performance of considered parametric and nonparametric models in their ability to forecast price series and volatilities. Our models incorporate possible seasonalities in the underlying dynamics and utilise advanced estimation techniques for the dynamics of energy prices.

Keywords: stochastic volatility, affine jump-diffusion models, high frequency data, model specification, markov chain monte carlo

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Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

Abstract:

Over the last several years, concern has developed over how to minimize the spread of HIV/AIDS epidemic in many countries. AIDS epidemic has tremendously stimulated the development of mathematical models of infectious diseases. The transmission dynamics of HIV infection that eventually developed AIDS has taken a pivotal role of much on building mathematical models. From the initial HIV and AIDS models introduced in the 80s, various improvements have been taken into account as how to model HIV/AIDS frameworks. In this paper, we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV/AIDS. Epidemic model is considered by a system of nonlinear differential equations to supplement the statistical method approach. The model is calibrated using HIV incidence data from Malaysia between 1986 and 2011. Bayesian inference based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to validate the model by fitting it to the data and to estimate the unknown parameters for the model. The results suggest that the migrants stay for a long time contributes to the spread of HIV. The model also indicates that susceptible individual becomes infected and moved to HIV compartment at a rate that is more significant than the removal rate from HIV compartment to AIDS compartment. The disease-free steady state is unstable since the basic reproduction number is 1.627309. This is a big concern and not a good indicator from the public heath point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease equilibrium.

Keywords: epidemic model, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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Authors: Amina Boukelkoul, Rahil Boukelkoul, Leila Maachia

Abstract:

The cumulative vapors emitted from the service stations may represent a hazard to the environment and the population. Besides fuel spill and their penetration into deep soil layers are the main contributors to soil and ground-water contamination in the vicinity of the petrol stations. The amount of the effluents from the service stations depends on strategy of maintenance and the policy adopted by the management to reduce the pollution. One key of the proposed approach is the idea of managing the effluents from the service stations which can be captured via use of a finite state Markov chain. Such a model can be embedded within a probabilistic operation and maintenance simulation reflecting the action to be done. In this paper, an approach of estimating a probabilistic percentage of the amount of emitted pollutants is presented. The finite state Markov model is used for decision problems with number of determined periods (life cycle) to predict the amount according to various options of operation.

Keywords: environment, markov modeling, pollution, service station

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Authors: A. Bayaga

Abstract:

This research provides a technical account of estimating Transition Probability using Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process applying by South African HIV/AIDS data from the Statistics South Africa. It employs Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) model to explore the possible influence of Transition Probability of mortality cases in which case the data was based on actual Statistics South Africa. This was conducted via an integrated demographic and epidemiological model of South African HIV/AIDS epidemic. The model was fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data and recorded death data using MLE model. Though the previous model results suggest HIV in South Africa has declined and AIDS mortality rates have declined since 2002 – 2013, in contrast, our results differ evidently with the generally accepted HIV models (Spectrum/EPP and ASSA2008) in South Africa. However, there is the need for supplementary research to be conducted to enhance the demographic parameters in the model and as well apply it to each of the nine (9) provinces of South Africa.

Keywords: AIDS mortality rates, epidemiological model, time-homogeneous markov jump process, transition probability, statistics South Africa

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Authors: Zina Benouaret, Djamil Aissani

Abstract:

In this work, we introduce the qualitative and quantitative concept of the strong stability method in the risk process modeling two lines of business of the same insurance company or an insurance and re-insurance companies that divide between them both claims and premiums with a certain proportion. The approach proposed is based on the identification of the ruin probability associate to the model considered, with a stationary distribution of a Markov random process called a reversed process. Our objective, after clarifying the condition and the perturbation domain of parameters, is to obtain the stability inequality of the ruin probability which is applied to estimate the approximation error of a model with disturbance parameters by the considered model. In the stability bound obtained, all constants are explicitly written.

Keywords: Markov chain, risk models, ruin probabilities, strong stability analysis

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