Search results for: future projection

Authors: Ricardo Schnug

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This paper puts the transnational crime of human trafficking in the context of Sub-Saharan Africa and its quickly growing youth bulge. By mapping recent and concurrent trends and emerging issues, it explores the implications that it has not only for the region itself but also for the greater global dynamics of the issue. Through the application of Causal Layered Analysis to various alternative future scenarios as well as the identification of the core narrative surrounding the international discourse, it is possible to understand more deeply the forces that underlie future trafficking and what change becomes possible. With the provision of a reconstructed narrative that avoids the current blind spots, this research points out the need for a new and organic leadership paradigm that allows for a more holistic and future-oriented inquiry about socio-economic and political change and what it entails for a transnational crime such as human trafficking. 'Ubuntu' as a social and leadership philosophy then, provides the principles needed for creating this path towards a truly preferred future. Furthermore, this paper inspires follow-up research and the continuous monitoring and transdisciplinary research of this region’s demographic emergence as well as its possible consequences that have been explored in this inquiry.

Keywords: causal layered analysis, emerging issues, human trafficking, scenarios, sub-Saharan Africa

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Authors: Mustarakh Gelfi, Poonam Taneja, Tiedo Vellinga, Delon Hamonangan

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The initial masterplan of New Priok in the Port of Tanjung Priok was developed in 2012 is being updated to cater to new developments and new demands. In the new masterplan (2017), Phase II of development will start from 2035-onwards, depending on the future conditions. This study is about creating a robust masterplan for Phase II, which will remain functional under future uncertainties. The methodology applied in this study is scenario-based planning in the framework of Adaptive Port Planning (APP). Scenario-based planning helps to open up the perspective of the future as a horizon of possibilities. The scenarios are built around two major uncertainties in a 2x2 matrix approach. The two major uncertainties for New Priok port are economics and sustainability awareness. The outcome is four plausible scenarios: Green Port, Business As Usual, Moderate Expansion, and No Expansion. Terminal needs in each scenario are analyzed through traffic analysis and identifying the key cargos and commodities. In conclusion, this study gives the wide perspective for Port of Tanjung Priok for the planning Phase II of the development. The port has to realize that uncertainties persevere and are very likely to influence the decision making as to the future layouts. Instead of ignoring uncertainty, the port needs to make the action plans to deal with these uncertainties.

Keywords: Indonesia Port, port's layout, port planning, scenario-based planning

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Authors: Mikel Alonso López, María Francisca Blasco López, Víctor Molero Ayala

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The present study explains the somatic marker theory of Antonio Damasio, which indicates that when making a decision, the stored or possible future scenarios (future memory) images allow people to feel for a moment what would happen when they make a choice, and how this is emotionally marked. This process can be conscious or unconscious. The development of new Neuromarketing techniques such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), carries a greater understanding of how the brain functions and consumer behavior. In the results observed in different studies using fMRI, the evidence suggests that the somatic marker and future memories influence the decision-making process, adding a positive or negative emotional component to the options. This would mean that all decisions would involve a present emotional component, with a rational cost-benefit analysis that can be performed later.

Keywords: emotions, decision making, somatic marker, consumer´s brain

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Authors: Adel Gurel, Ozge Ceylin Yildirim

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Nowadays, design and architecture are being affected and underwent change with the rapid advancements in technology, economics, politics, society and culture. Architecture has been transforming with the latest developments after the inclusion of computers into design. Integration of design into the computational environment has revolutionized the architecture and new perspectives in architecture have been gained. The history of architecture shows the various technological developments and changes in which the architecture has transformed with time. Therefore, the analysis of integration between technology and the history of the architectural process makes it possible to build a consensus on the idea of how architecture is to proceed. In this study, each period that occurs with the integration of technology into architecture is addressed within historical process. At the same time, changes in architecture via technology are identified as important milestones and predictions with regards to the future of architecture have been determined. Developments and changes in technology and the use of technology in architecture within years are analyzed in charts and graphs comparatively. The historical process of architecture and its transformation via technology are supported with detailed literature review and they are consolidated with the examination of focal points of 20th-century architecture under the titles; parametric design, genetic architecture, simulation, and biomimicry. It is concluded that with the historical research between past and present; the developments in architecture cannot keep up with the advancements in technology and recent developments in technology overshadow the architecture, even the technology decides the direction of architecture. As a result, a scenario is presented with regards to the reach of technology in the future of architecture and the role of the architect.

Keywords: computer technologies, future architecture, scientific developments, transformation

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Authors: Mercy E. Makpor

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Traditional Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) idea has gone beyond just ensuring safety environments, caring about global warming and ensuring good living standards and conditions for the society at large. The paradigm shift is towards a focus on strategic objectives and the long-term value creation for both businesses and the society at large for a realistic future. As an important approach to solving social and environment issues, CSR has been accepted globally. Yet the approach is expected to go beyond where it is currently. So much is expected from businesses and governments at every level globally and locally. This then leads to the original idea of the concept, that is, how it originated and how it has been perceived over the years. Little wonder there has been a lot of definitions surrounding the concept without a major globally acceptable definition of it. The definition of CSR given by the European Commission will be considered for the purpose of this paper. Sustainable Development (SD), on the other hand, has been viewed in recent years as an ethical concept explained in the UN-Report termed “Our Common Future,” which can also be referred to as the Brundtland report. The report summarises the need for SD to take place in the present without comprising the future. However, the recent 21st-century framework on sustainability known as the “Triple Bottom Line (TBL)” framework, has added its voice to the concepts of CSR and sustainable development. The TBL model is of the opinion that businesses should not only report on their financial performance but also on their social and environmental performances, highlighting that CSR has gone beyond just the “material-impact” approach towards a “Future-Oriented” approach (sustainability). In this paper, the concept of CSR is revisited by exploring the various theories therein. The discourse on the concepts of sustainable development and sustainable development frameworks will also be indicated, thereby inducing these into how CSR can benefit both businesses and their stakeholders as well as the entirety of the society, not just for the present but for the future. It does this by exploring the importance of both concepts (CSR and SD) and concludes by making recommendations for a more empirical research in the near future.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, sustainable development, sustainability, triple bottom line model

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Authors: Ceylan Sozer, Ece Ceylan Baba

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The reforms and changes that began with industrialization in cities and continued with globalization in 1980’s, created many changes in urban environments. City centers which are desolated due to industrialization, began to get crowded with globalization and became the heart of technology, commerce and social activities. While the immediate and intense alterations are planned around rigorous visions in developed countries, several urban areas where the processes were underestimated and not taken precaution faced with irrevocable situations. When the effects of the globalization in the cities are examined, it is seen that there are some anticipatory system plans in the cities about the future problems. Several cities such as New York, London and Tokyo have planned to resolve probable future problems in a systematic scheme to decrease possible side effects during globalization. The decisions in urban planning and their applications are the main points in terms of sustainability and livability in such mega-cities. This article examines the effects of globalization on urban planning through 3 mega cities and the applications. When the applications of urban plannings of the three mega-cities are investigated, it is seen that the city plans are generated under light of past experiences and predictions of a certain future. In urban planning, past and present experiences of a city should have been examined and then future projections could be predicted together with current world dynamics by a systematic way. In this study, methods used in urban planning will be discussed and ‘Anticipatory System’ model will be explained and relations with global-urban planning will be discussed. The concept of ‘anticipation’ is a phenomenon that means creating foresights and predictions about the future by combining past, present and future within an action plan. The main distinctive feature that separates anticipatory systems from other systems is the combination of past, present and future and concluding with an act. Urban plans that consist of various parameters and interactions together are identified as ‘live’ and they have systematic integrities. Urban planning with an anticipatory system might be alive and can foresight some ‘side effects’ in design processes. After globalization, cities became more complex and should be designed within an anticipatory system model. These cities can be more livable and can have sustainable urban conditions for today and future.In this study, urban planning of Istanbul city is going to be analyzed with comparisons of New York, Tokyo and London city plans in terms of anticipatory system models. The lack of a system in İstanbul and its side effects will be discussed. When past and present actions in urban planning are approached through an anticipatory system, it can give more accurate and sustainable results in the future.

Keywords: globalization, urban planning, anticipatory system, New York, London, Tokyo, Istanbul

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Authors: Ning Kang, Marius Doornenbal

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Funding is a very important – if not crucial – resource for research projects. Usually, funding organizations will publish a description of the funded research to describe the scope of the funding award. Logically, we would expect research outcomes to align with this funding award. For that reason, we might be able to predict future research topics based on present funding award data. That said, it remains to be shown if and how future research topics can be predicted by using the funding information. In this paper, we extract funding project information and their generated paper abstracts from the Gateway to Research database as a group, and use the papers from the same domains and publication years in the Scopus database as a baseline comparison group. We annotate both the project awards and the papers resulting from the funded projects with linguistic features (noun phrases), and then calculate tf-idf and cosine similarity between these two set of features. We show that the cosine similarity between the project-generated papers group is bigger than the project-baseline group, and also that these two groups of similarities are significantly different. Based on this result, we conclude that the funding information actually correlates with the content of future research output for the funded project on the topical level. How funding really changes the course of science or of scientific careers remains an elusive question.

Keywords: natural language processing, noun phrase, tf-idf, cosine similarity

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Authors: Mornay Roberts-Lombard

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Consumers’ perceptions of value are crucial to ensuring their future commitment and behavioral intentions. As a result, service providers, such as Islamic banks, must provide their customers with products and services that are regarded as valuable, stimulating, collaborative, and competent. Therefore, the value provided to customers must meet or surpass their expectations, which can drive customers’ commitment (affective and calculative) and eventually favorably impact their future behavioral intentions. Consequently, Islamic banks in South Africa, as a growing African market, need to obtain a better understanding of the variables that impact Islamic banking customers’ value perceptions and how these impact their future behavioral intentions. Furthermore, it is necessary to investigate how customers’ perceived value perceptions impact their affective and calculative commitment and how the latter impact their future behavioral intentions. The purpose of this study is to bridge these gaps in knowledge, as the competitiveness of the Islamic banking industry in South Africa requires a deeper understanding of the aforementioned relationships. The study was exploratory and quantitative in nature, and data was collected from 250 Islamic banking customers using self-administered questionnaires. These banking customers resided in the Gauteng province of South Africa. Exploratory factor analysis, Pearson’s coefficient analysis, and multiple regression analysis were applied to measure the proposed hypotheses developed for the study. This research will aid Islamic banks in the country in potentially strengthening customers’ future commitment (affective and calculative) and positively impact their future behavioral intentions. The findings of the study established that service quality has a significant and positive impact on perceived value. Moreover, it was determined that perceived value has a favorable and considerable impact on affective and calculative commitment, while calculative commitment has a beneficial impact on behavioral intention. The research informs Islamic banks of the importance of service engagement in driving customer perceived value, which stimulates the future affective and calculative commitment of Islamic bank customers in an emerging market context. Finally, the study proposes guidelines for Islamic banks to develop an enhanced understanding of the factors that impact the perceived value-commitment-behavioral intention link in a competitive Islamic banking market in South Africa.

Keywords: perceived value, affective commitment, calculative commitment, behavioural intention

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Authors: Naser Ojaroudi Parchin, Atta Ullah, Haleh Jahanbakhsh Basherlou, Raed A. Abd-Alhameed, Peter S. Excell

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A design of beam-steerable antenna array for the future cellular communication (5G) is presented. The proposed design contains eight elements of compact end-fire antennas arranged on the top edge of smartphone printed circuit board (PCB). Configuration of the antenna element consists of the conductive patterns on the top and bottom copper foil layers and a substrate layer with a via-hole. The simulated results including input-impedance and also fundamental radiation properties have been presented and discussed. The impedance bandwidth (S₁₁ ≤ -10 dB) of the antenna spans from 17.5 to 21 GHz (more than 3 GHz bandwidth) with a resonance at 19 GHz. The antenna exhibits end-fire (directional) radiation beams with wide-angle scanning property and could be used for the future 5G beam-forming. Furthermore, the characteristics of the array design in the vicinity of user-hand are studied.

Keywords: beam-steering, end-fire radiation mode, mobile-phone antenna, phased array

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Authors: Morteza Khorrami

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The idea of final triumph of peace and justice on evil force, conflict and global spread of the religious faith, the full deployment of human values, constitute a utopia and the ideal society is discussed by many of religions. Thus, mankind has always been waiting for a savior and has received good tidings for coming of Great Savior at the end of Time. Of course, various persons were introduced as the Promised Saviors by different religions, but all of the religions share in this fact that the future of humanity is very bright and promising and the future will belong to the righteous and justice. In this article which is written with a descriptive and analytic method, the author tries to show the vision of global justice at the end of time. The opinion of various religions such as Judaism, Christianity, Zoroastrianism, Islam and even idolatry about the great savior as well as the justice status in his era in the world will be discussed. Also the viewpoint of Muslims and specially Shiites, which is explained clearly in their scripts, will be depicted. Current human responsibility towards this golden era will be discussed, too. Based on paper findings, religious doctrine promises that a heaven person and sacred character will come as a reformer of the world. In his era, humanity will be saved from tyranny, oppression and inequality, and the earth will be filled with peace, security, justice, and equity. Moreover promoting justice, truth and spreading religion in the world, economic, scientific, political and moral development will be happened.

Keywords: future of humanity, global justice, islam, religions

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Authors: Marcin Jakiel, Maria Kurek, Karolina Gutkowska, Sylwia Sanakiewicz, Dominika Stolarczyk, Jakub Batko, Rafał Jakiel, Mateusz K. Hołda

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Proper imaging of the interventricular septum during endocavital lead implantation is essential for successful procedure. The interventricular septum is located oblique to the 3 main body planes and forms angles of 44.56° ± 7.81°, 45.44° ± 7.81°, 62.49° (IQR 58.84° - 68.39°) with the sagittal, frontal and transverse planes, respectively. The optimal left anterior oblique (LAO) projection is to have the septum aligned along the radiation beam and will be obtained for an angle of 53.24° ± 9,08°, while the best visualization of the septal surface in the right anterior oblique (RAO) projection is obtained by using an angle of 45.44° ± 7.81°. In addition, the RAO angle (p=0.003) and the septal slope to the transverse plane (p=0.002) are larger in the male group, but the LAO angle (p=0.003) and the dihedral angle that the septum forms with the sagittal plane (p=0.003) are smaller, compared to the female group. Analyzing the optimal RAO angle in cross-sections lying at the level of the connections of the septum with the free wall of the right ventricle from the front and back, we obtain slightly smaller angle values, i.e. 41.11° ± 8.51° and 43.94° ± 7.22°, respectively. As the septum is directed leftward in the apical region, the optimal RAO angle for this area decreases (16.49° ± 7,07°) and does not show significant differences between the male and female groups (p=0.23). Within the right ventricular apex, there is a cavity formed by the apical segment of the interventricular septum and the free wall of the right ventricle with a depth of 12.35mm (IQR 11.07mm - 13.51mm). The length of the septum measured in longitudinal section, containing 4 heart cavities, is 73.03mm ± 8.06mm. With the left ventricular septal wall formed by the interventricular septum in the apical region at a length of 10.06mm (IQR 8.86 - 11.07mm) already lies outside the right ventricle. Both mentioned lengths are significantly larger in the male group (p<0.001). For proper imaging of the septum from the right ventricular side, an oblique position of the visualization devices is necessary. Correct determination of the RAO and LAO angle during the procedure allows to improve the procedure performed, and possible modification of the visual field when moving in the anterior, posterior and apical directions of the septum will avoid complications. Overlooking the change in the direction of the interventricular septum in the apical region and a significant decrease in the RAO angle can result in implantation of the lead into the free wall of the right ventricle with less effective pacing and even complications such as wall perforation and cardiac tamponade. The demonstrated gender differences can also be helpful in setting the right projections. A necessary addition to the analysis will be a description of the area of the ventricular septum, which we are currently working on using autopsy material.

Keywords: anatomical variability, angle, electrocardiological procedure, intervetricular septum

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Authors: Christine Winberg, James Garraway

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Many key university documents, such as vision and mission statements and strategic plans, are aspirational and future-oriented. There is a wide range of future-oriented methods that are used in planning applications, ranging from mathematical modelling to expert opinions. Many of these methods have limitations, and planners using these tools might, for example, make the technical-rational assumption that their plans will unfold in a logical and inevitable fashion, thus underestimating the many complex forces that are at play in planning for an unknown future. This is the issue that this study addresses. The overall project aim was to assist a new university of technology in developing appropriate responses to its social responsibility, graduate employability and research missions in its strategic plan. The specific research question guiding the research activities and approach was: how might the use of innovative future-oriented planning tools enable or constrain a strategic planning process? The research objective was to engage collaborating groups in the use of an innovative tool to develop and assess future scenarios, for the purpose of developing deeper understandings of possible futures and their challenges. The scenario planning tool chosen was ‘fictive scripting’, an analytical technique derived from Technology Forecasting and Innovation Studies. Fictive scripts are future projections that also take into account the present shape of the world and current developments. The process thus began with a critical diagnosis of the present, highlighting its tensions and frictions. The collaborative groups then developed fictive scripts, each group producing a future scenario that foregrounded different institutional missions, their implications and possible consequences. The scripts were analyzed with a view to identifying their potential contribution to the university’s strategic planning exercise. The unfolding fictive scripts revealed a number of insights in terms of unexpected benefits, unexpected challenges, and unexpected consequences. These insights were not evident in previous strategic planning exercises. The contribution that this study offers is to show how better choices can be made and potential pitfalls avoided through a systematic foresight exercise. When universities develop strategic planning documents, they are looking into the future. In this paper it is argued that the use of appropriate tools for future-oriented exercises, can help planners to understand more fully what achieving desired outcomes might entail, what challenges might be encountered, and what unexpected consequences might ensue.

Keywords: fictive scripts, scenarios, strategic planning, technological forecasting

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Authors: Abdullah Al Mamoon, Ataur Rahman

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Due to climate change, future rainfall will change at many locations on earth; however, the spatial and temporal patterns of this change are not easy to predict. One approach of predicting such future changes is to examine the trends in the historical rainfall data at a given region and use the identified trends to make future prediction. For this, a statistical trend test is commonly applied to the historical data. This paper examines the trends of daily extreme rainfall events from 30 rain gauges located in the State of Qatar. Rainfall data covering from 1962 to 2011 were used in the analysis. A combination of four non-parametric and parametric tests was applied to identify trends at 10%, 5%, and 1% significance levels. These tests are Mann-Kendall (MK), Spearman’s Rho (SR), Linear Regression (LR) and CUSUM tests. These tests showed both positive and negative trends throughout the country. Only eight stations showed positive (upward) trend, which were however not statistically significant. In contrast, significant negative (downward) trends were found at the 5% and 10% levels of significance in six stations. The MK, SR and LR tests exhibited very similar results. This finding has important implications in the derivation/upgrade of design rainfall for Qatar, which will affect design and operation of future urban drainage infrastructure in Qatar.

Keywords: trends, extreme rainfall, daily rainfall, Mann-Kendall test, climate change, Qatar

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Authors: Sultan Aldaihani, Eiman Al-Fadhli

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Internet of Things (IoTs) expected to change the future of academic libraries operations. It enables academic libraries to be smart libraries through, for example, the connection of the physical objects with the Internet. The implementation of IoTs will improve library resources and services. Therefore, this research aims to investigate the applications of Internet of Things (IoTs) for information resources and services. Understanding perceptions of academic librarians toward IoTs before adopting of such applications will assist decision-makers in academic libraries in their strategic planning. An online questionnaire was administered to academic librarians at Kuwait University. The findings of this study showed that academic librarians have awareness for the IoTs. They have strongly believed that the IoTs contributes to the development of information resources, services, and understanding of the user's information behavior. Identifying new applications of the IoTs in libraries was the highest possible reason for future adoption. Academic librarians indicated that lack of privacy and data penetration were the greatest problem in their future adoption of IoTs. Academic libraries need to implement the IoTs for enhancing their information resources and services. One important step in the success of future adoption is to conduct awareness and training programs for academic librarians. They also need to maintain higher security and privacy measurements in their implementation for the IoTs. This study will assist academic libraries in accommodating this technology.

Keywords: academic libraries, internet of things, information resources, information services

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Authors: Matthew J. Flynn

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In early 2022, a thirty-mile column of Russian armor and assault vehicles sat poised to move south on the road to Kiev. That force has withdrawn as the Russians concentrate on attacking eastern Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s armies appear content to destroy cities in an effort to attrit the Ukrainian will to continue fighting. That pivot signifies the acceptance of the ascendancy of the defense that now dictates any battlefield world-wide. To defeat what military theorist Carl von Clausewitz labeled “the stronger form of war” with a successful offensive requires an exercise in future war. In the past, the ascendancy of the defense has been overcome by a number of things including the application of superior leadership, better technology, organizational adaptation, and surpassing environmental limitations. A look at how each of these factors came to impact battle can tell us a great deal about what Ukraine means to tomorrow’s fight, and where the focus should lie to win the next war. Civilians presently secure the defensive ascendancy impacting warfare by dominating the shifts from domain to domain thanks to controlling access to cyberspace. That mandate will be tested and eventually falter. This paper tests the desirability of that proposition, as well as hoping for something more from humanity other than repeated and frequent wars making future war look much like past wars. As nations struggle to control cyberspace, a referendum on war as part of the human condition comes into focus.

Keywords: cyber, domains, future war, Putin, Ukraine

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Authors: Chia-Hung Liao, Shih-Chieh Lin

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X-ray computed tomography (CT) technology has been used in the electronics industry as one of the non-destructive inspection tools for years. The key advantage of X-ray computed tomography technology superior to traditional optical inspection is the penetrating characteristics of X-rays can be used to detect defects in the interior of objects. The objective of this study is to find a way to estimate the system geometric deviation of X-ray CT equipment. Projection trajectories of the characteristic points of standard parts were tracked, and ways to calculate the deviation of various geometric parameters of the system will be proposed and evaluated. A simulation study will be conducted to first find out the effects of system geometric deviation on projected trajectories. Then ways to estimate geometric deviation with collected trajectories will be proposed and tested through simulations.

Keywords: geometric calibration, X-ray computed tomography, trajectory tracing, reconstruction optimization

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Authors: Siddharth Rana

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As we know so far, there are 3 dimensions that we are capable of interpreting and perceiving, and there is a 4th dimension, called time, about which we don’t know much yet. We, as humans, live in the 4th dimension, not the 3rd. We travel 3 dimensionally but cannot yet travel 4 dimensionally; perhaps if we could, then visiting the past and the future would be like climbing a mountain or going down a road. So far, we humans are not even capable of imagining any higher dimensions than the three dimensions in which we can travel. We are the beings of the 4th dimension; we are the beings of time; that is why we can travel 3 dimensionally; however, if, say, there were beings of the 5th dimension, then they would easily be able to travel 4 dimensionally, i.e., they could travel in the 4th dimension as well. Beings of the 5th dimension can easily time travel. However, beings of the 4th dimension, like us, cannot time travel because we live in a 4-D world, traveling 3 dimensionally. That means to ever do time travel, we just need to go to a higher dimension and not only perceive it but also be able to travel in it. However, traveling to the past is not very possible, unlike traveling to the future. Even if traveling to the past were possible, it would be very unlikely that an event in the past would be changed. In this paper, some approaches are provided to define time, our movement in time to the future, some aspects of time travel using dimensions, and how we can perceive a higher dimension.

Keywords: time, dimensions, String theory, relativity

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Authors: Dielleza Namani, Laureta Kadrijaj-Qerimi

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Neurolinguistics studies the relationship between the brain and language. It is a subject not often found in the syllabus of universities in the Balkans but more spread in Europe and especially the United States of America. The purpose of this study is to see what importance this subject has for studies in the English language department. It contains an analysis of other research papers written regarding neurolinguistics, a questionnaire made for professors and deans at private and public universities in Kosovo, and an interview with a neurolinguistics professor in England. Since this subject is not found in the syllabus of any of the universities in Kosovo, the researchers wanted to find out why this happens but, at the same time, provide reasons why they should consider having it in the future. The results showed that for this subject, there had been researching made, but not enough so far, which gives more information and feedback on why it needs to be in the syllabus, and how linguists can use the knowledge they receive from this subject in their workplace. Also, the professors and deans see this subject as too medical for their students to learn and not necessary for their future jobs. Hopefully, in the near future, there will be more research done on why this is important and how English language students can benefit from it.

Keywords: English language department, neurolinguistics, second language acquisition, teaching methods

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Authors: Felipa M. Rico

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Linguistic oral competence plays a vital role in attaining effective communication. Since the English language is considered as universally used language and has a high demand skill needed in the work-place, mastery is the expected output from learners. To achieve this, learners should be given integrated differentiated tasks which help them develop and strengthen the expected skills. This study aimed to develop speaking instructional supplementary material to enhance the English linguistic competence of Grade 9 students in areas of pronunciation, intonation and stress, voice projection, diction and fluency. A descriptive analysis was utilized to analyze the speaking level of performance of the students in order to employ appropriate strategies. There were two sets of respondents: 178 Grade 9 students selected through a stratified sampling and chosen at random. The other set comprised English teachers who evaluated the usefulness of the devised teaching materials. A teacher conducted a speaking test and activities were employed to analyze the speaking needs of students. Observation and recordings were also used to evaluate the students’ performance. The findings revealed that the English pronunciation of the students was slightly unclear at times, but generally fair. There were lapses but generally they rated moderate in intonation and stress, because of other language interference. In terms of voice projection, students have erratic high volume pitch. For diction, the students’ ability to produce comprehensible language is limited, and as to fluency, the choice of vocabulary and use of structure were severely limited. Based on the students’ speaking needs analyses, the supplementary material devised was based on Nunan’s IM model, incorporating context of daily life and global work settings, considering the principle that language is best learned in the actual meaningful situation. To widen the mastery of skill, a rich learning environment, filled with a variety instructional material tends to foster faster acquisition of the requisite skills for sustained learning and development. The role of IM is to encourage information to stick in the learners’ mind, as what is seen is understood more than what is heard. Teachers say they found the IM “very useful.” This implied that English teachers could adopt the materials to improve the speaking skills of students. Further, teachers should provide varied opportunities for students to get involved in real life situations where they could take turns in asking and answering questions and share information related to the activities. This would minimize anxiety among students in the use of the English language.

Keywords: diction, fluency, intonation, instructional materials, linguistic competence

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Authors: Olivia Kurucz

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Gamification is one of the outstanding new methodological possibilities of urban public participation processes to make the most informed decision possible for the future steps of urban development. This paper examines four Hungarian experimental projects in which gamified tools were applied during the public participation progresses by the Urban Future Laboratory (UFLab) research workshop of Budapest University of Technology and Economics (BUTE). The recently implemented future planning projects (in the cities of Pécel, Kistarcsa, Budapest, and Salgótarján) were initiated by various motives, but the multi-stakeholder dialogues were facilitated through physical gamified tools in all cases. Based on the urban gamification hypothesis, the use of gamified tools supported certain steps of participatory processes in several aspects: it helped to increase the attractiveness of public events, to create a more informal atmosphere, to ensure equal conditions for actors, to recall a design mindset, to bridge contrasting social or cultural differences, to fix opinions and to assist dialogue between city actors, designers, and residents. This statement is confirmed by assessing the applied tools, analyzing the case studies, and comparing them to perceive their effects and interrelations.

Keywords: experimental projects, future planning, gamification, gamified tools, Hungary, public participation, UFLab, urban gamification

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Authors: Jeongmin Kim, Eunju Lee, Kwang Ryel Ryu

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This paper addresses the problem of predictive control for energy management of large-scaled exhibition halls, where a lot of energy is consumed to maintain internal atmosphere under certain required conditions. Predictive control achieves better energy efficiency by optimizing the operation of air-conditioning facilities with not only the current but also some future status taken into account. In this paper, we propose to use predictive models learned from past sensor data of hall environment, for use in optimizing the operating plan for the air-conditioning facilities by simulating future environmental change. We have implemented an emulator of an exhibition hall by using EnergyPlus, a widely used building energy emulation tool, to collect data for learning environment-change models. Experimental results show that the learned models predict future change highly accurately on a short-term basis.

Keywords: predictive control, energy management, machine learning, optimization

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Authors: Raziyeh Shamsi

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In this paper, we present a multiple objective linear programming (MOLP) problem in full fuzzy case and find Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) targets. In the presented model, we are seeking the least inputs and the most outputs in the production possibility set (PPS) with the variable return to scale (VRS) assumption, so that the efficiency projection is obtained for all decision making units (DMUs). Then, we provide an algorithm for finding DEA targets interactively in the full fuzzy case, which solves the full fuzzy problem without defuzzification. Owing to the use of interactive methods, the targets obtained by our algorithm are more applicable, more realistic, and they are according to the wish of the decision maker. Finally, an application of the algorithm in 21 educational institutions is provided.

Keywords: DEA, MOLP, full fuzzy, target

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Authors: Bishnupriya Sahoo, Prasad K. Bhaskaran

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Tropical cyclone is one among the worst natural hazards that results in a trail of destruction causing enormous damage to life, property, and coastal infrastructures. In a global perspective, the Indian Ocean is considered as one of the cyclone prone basins in the world. Specifically, the frequency of cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal is higher compared to the Arabian Sea. Out of the four maritime states in the East coast of India, Odisha is highly susceptible to tropical cyclone landfall. Historical records clearly decipher the fact that the frequency of cyclones have reduced in this basin. However, in the recent decades, the intensity and size of tropical cyclones have increased. This is a matter of concern as the risk and vulnerability level of Odisha coast exposed to high wind speed and gusts during cyclone landfall have increased. In this context, there is a need to assess and evaluate the severity of coastal risk, area of exposure under risk, and associated vulnerability with a higher dimension in a multi-risk perspective. Changing climate can result in the emergence of a new hazard and vulnerability over a region with differential spatial and socio-economic impact. Hence there is a need to have coastal vulnerability projections in a changing climate scenario. With this motivation, the present study attempts to estimate the destructiveness of tropical cyclones based on Power Dissipation Index (PDI) for those cyclones that made landfall along Odisha coast that exhibits an increasing trend based on historical data. The study also covers the futuristic scenarios of integral coastal vulnerability based on the trends in PDI for the Odisha coast. This study considers 11 essential and important parameters; the cyclone intensity, storm surge, onshore inundation, mean tidal range, continental shelf slope, topo-graphic elevation onshore, rate of shoreline change, maximum wave height, relative sea level rise, rainfall distribution, and coastal geomorphology. The study signifies that over a decadal scale, the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) depends largely on the incremental change in variables such as cyclone intensity, storm surge, and associated inundation. In addition, the study also performs a critical analysis on the modulation of PDI on storm surge and inundation characteristics for the entire coastal belt of Odisha State. Interestingly, the study brings to light that a linear correlation exists between the storm-tide with PDI. The trend analysis of PDI and its projection for coastal Odisha have direct practical applications in effective coastal zone management and vulnerability assessment.

Keywords: Bay of Bengal, coastal vulnerability index, power dissipation index, tropical cyclone

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Authors: David Quevedo, Diana Coronel

Abstract:

The present article carries out an evaluation of the drinking water system in the Bellavista sector of the city of Azogues, with the purpose of determining the appropriate equipment to record the actual consumption flows of the inhabitants in said sector. Taking into account that the study area is located in a rural and economically disadvantaged area, there is an urgent need to establish a control system for the consumption of drinking water in order to conserve and manage the vital resource in the best possible way, considering that the water source supplying this sector is approximately 9km away. The research began with the collection of cartographic, demographic, and statistical data of the sector, determining the coverage area, population projection, and a provision that guarantees the supply of drinking water to meet the water needs of the sector's inhabitants. By using hydraulic modeling through the United States Environmental Protection Agency Application for Modeling Drinking Water Distribution Systems EPANET 2.0 software, theoretical hydraulic data were obtained, which were used to design and justify the most suitable measuring equipment for the Bellavista drinking water system. Taking into account a minimum service life of the drinking water system of 30 years, future flow rates were calculated for the design of the macro-measuring device. After analyzing the network, it was evident that the Bellavista sector has an average consumption of 102.87 liters per person per day, but considering that Ecuadorian regulations recommend a provision of 180 liters per person per day for the geographical conditions of the sector, this value was used for the analysis. With all the collected and calculated information, the conclusion was reached that the Bellavista drinking water system needs to have a 125mm electromagnetic macro-measuring device for the first three quinquenniums of its service life and a 150mm diameter device for the following three quinquenniums. The importance of having equipment that provides real and reliable data will allow for the control of water consumption by the population of the sector, measured through micro-measuring devices installed at the entrance of each household, which should match the readings of the macro-measuring device placed after the water storage tank outlet, in order to control losses that may occur due to leaks in the drinking water system or illegal connections.

Keywords: macrometer, hydraulics, endowment, water

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Authors: Paolo Grazioli

Abstract:

In this paper, we present the main results achieved during an eight-week international design project on Colorado Future Sustainable Mobilitycarried out at Metropolitan State University of Denver. The project was born with the intention to seize the opportunity created by the Colorado government’s plan to promote e-bikes mobility by creating a large network of dedicated tracks. The project was supported by local entrepreneurs who offered financial and professional support. The main goal of the project was to engage design students with the skills to design a user-centered, original vehicle that would satisfy the unarticulated practical and emotional needs of “Gen Z” users by creating a fun, useful, and reliablelife companion that would helps users carry out their everyday tasks in a practical and enjoyable way. The project was carried out with the intention of proving the importance of the combination of creative methods with practical design methodologies towards the creation of an innovative yet immediately manufacturable product for a more sustainable future. The final results demonstrate the students' capability to create innovative and yet manufacturable products and, especially, their ability to create a new design paradigm for future sustainable mobility products. The design solutions explored n the project include collaborative learning and human-interaction design for future mobility. The findings of the research led students to the fabrication of two working prototypes that will be tested in Colorado and developed for manufacturing in the year 2024. The project showed that collaborative design and project-based teaching improve the quality of the outcome and can lead to the creation of real life, innovative products directly from the classroom to the market.

Keywords: sustainable transportation design, interface design, collaborative design, user -centered design research, design prototyping

Procedia PDF Downloads 64

Authors: Osatuyi Kehinde Micheal

Abstract:

There is much research that has contributed to an improved understanding of the future of food security, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. A pathway was developed by using a local community kitchen in Muizenberg in western cape province, cape town, south Africa, a case study to map out the future of food security in times of crisis. This kitchen aims to provide nutritious, affordable, plant-based meals to our community. It is also a place of diverse learning, sharing, empowering the volunteers, and growth to support the local economy and future resilience by sustaining our community kitchen for the community. This document contains an overview of the story of the community kitchen on how we create self-sustainability as a new pathway development to sustain the community and reduce Zero hunger in the regional food system. This paper describes the key elements of how we respond to covid-19 pandemic by sharing food parcels and creating 13 soup kitchens across the community to tackle the immediate response to covid-19 pandemic and agricultural systems by growing home food gardening in different homes, also having a consciousness Dry goods store to reduce Zero waste and a local currency as an innovation to reduce food crisis. Insights gained from our article and outreach and their value in how we create adaptation, transformation, and sustainability as a new development pathway to solve any future problem crisis in the food security system in our society.

Keywords: sustainability, food security, community development, adapatation, transformation

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Authors: Alireza Nikbakht Shahbazi

Abstract:

There are various factors that affect climate changes; drought is one of those factors. Investigation of efficient methods for estimating climate change impacts on drought should be assumed. The aim of this paper is to investigate climate change impacts on drought in Karoon3 watershed located south-western Iran in the future periods. The atmospheric general circulation models (GCM) data under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios should be used for this purpose. In this study, watershed drought under climate change impacts will be simulated in future periods (2011 to 2099). Standard precipitation index (SPI) as a drought index was selected and calculated using mean monthly precipitation data in Karoon3 watershed. SPI was calculated in 6, 12 and 24 months periods. Statistical analysis on daily precipitation and minimum and maximum daily temperature was performed. LRAS-WG5 was used to determine the feasibility of future period's meteorological data production. Model calibration and verification was performed for the base year (1980-2007). Meteorological data simulation for future periods under General Circulation Models and climate change IPCC scenarios was performed and then the drought status using SPI under climate change effects analyzed. Results showed that differences between monthly maximum and minimum temperature will decrease under climate change and spring precipitation shall increase while summer and autumn rainfall shall decrease. The precipitation occurs mainly between January and May in future periods and summer or autumn precipitation decline and lead up to short term drought in the study region. Normal and wet SPI category is more frequent in B1 and A2 emissions scenarios than A1B.

Keywords: climate change impact, drought severity, drought frequency, Karoon3 watershed

Procedia PDF Downloads 207

Authors: Marcin Adamczak

Abstract:

The growth of Chinese film market and its dynamic incomparable to any other historical phenomenon has already made China the second world market and potential future leader in 2-3 years period. The growing power of Chines box-office and its future prospects is then the crucial and potentially disturbing factor for persistence of global Hollywood reality. The paper is based on market statistical data. The main findings of the analysis are defining of essential obstacles for the development of Chinese market and its foreign expansion. However, the new strategies employed by the industry (acquisitions of cinema chains abroad, blockbuster made with the involvement of figures from Hollywood star system, coproduction ties within Pacific basin) could be a successful remedy for current shortcomings. The main factor for development will be wider economical framework and maintenance of growth pace. The future state of Chinese film market will be one of the main factors shaping global film culture and film market in following decades of XXI century.

Keywords: production studies, film market, Chinese film market, distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 172

Authors: Luis Javier Serrano Tamayo

Abstract:

This research on technology makes a first approach to the selection of an amphibious landing ship with strategic capabilities, through the implementation of a multi-criteria model using Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP), in which a significant group of alternatives of latest technology has been considered. The variables were grouped at different levels to match design and performance characteristics, which affect the lifecycle as well as the acquisition, maintenance and operational costs. The model yielded an overall measure of effectiveness and an overall measure of cost of each kind of ship that was compared each other inside the model and showed in a Pareto chart. The modeling was developed using the Expert Choice software, based on AHP method.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, multi-criteria decision-making, Pareto analysis, Colombian Marine Corps, projection operations, expert choice, amphibious landing ship

Procedia PDF Downloads 513

Authors: Abdelraheem M. Aly, Minh Tuan Nguyen, Sang-Wook Lee

Abstract:

The incompressible smoothed particle hydrodynamics (ISPH) is used to simulate impact free surface flows. In the ISPH, pressure is evaluated by solving pressure Poisson equation using a semi-implicit algorithm based on the projection method. The current ISPH method is applied to simulate dam break flow over an inclined plane with different inclination angles. The effects of inclination angle in the velocity of wave front and pressure distribution is discussed. The impact of circular cylinder over water in tank has also been simulated using ISPH method. The computed pressures on the solid boundaries is studied and compared with the experimental results.

Keywords: incompressible smoothed particle hydrodynamics, free surface flow, inclined plane, water entry impact

Procedia PDF Downloads 368