Search results for: flash flood disaster

Authors: Sa-Kil Kim, Jang-Soo Lee

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On March 31, 1993, a severe fire accident took place in a nuclear power plant located in Narora in North India. The event involved a major fire in the turbine building of NAPS unit-1 and resulted in a total loss of power to the unit for 17 hours. In addition, there was a heavy ingress of smoke in the control room, mainly through the intake of the ventilation system, forcing the operators to vacate the control room. The Narora fire accident provides us lessons indicating that operators could lose their mind and predictable behaviors during a fire. After the Fukushima accident, which resulted from a natural disaster, unanticipated external events are also required to be prepared and controlled for the ultimate safety of nuclear power plants. From last year, our research team has developed a test and evaluation facility that can simulate external events such as an earthquake and fire based on the operators’ real-sense. As one of the results of the project, we proposed a unit real-sense-based facility that can simulate fire events in a control room for utilizing a test-bed of human factor validation. The test-bed has the operator’s workstation shape and functions to simulate fire conditions such as smoke, heat, and auditory alarms in accordance with the prepared fire scenarios. Furthermore, the test-bed can be used for the operators’ training and experience.

Keywords: human behavior in fire, human factors validation, nuclear power plants, real-sense-based fire simulation

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Authors: Sara Assi, Berthe Hayar, Claudio Pisano, Nadine Darwiche, Walid Saad

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Nanomedicine, the application of nanotechnology to medicine, is an emerging discipline that has gained significant attention in recent years. Current breakthroughs in nanomedicine have paved the way to develop effective drug delivery systems that can be used to target cancer. The use of nanotechnology provides effective drug delivery, enhanced stability, bioavailability, and permeability, thereby minimizing drug dosage and toxicity. As such, the use of nanoparticle (NP) formulations in drug delivery has been applied in various cancer models and have shown to improve the ability of drugs to reach specific targeted sites in a controlled manner. Cancer is one of the major causes of death worldwide; in particular, colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common type of cancer diagnosed amongst men and women and the second leading cause of cancer related deaths, highlighting the need for novel therapies. Retinoids, consisting of natural and synthetic derivatives, are a class of chemical compounds that have shown promise in preclinical and clinical cancer settings. However, retinoids are limited by their toxicity and resistance to treatment. To overcome this resistance, various synthetic retinoids have been developed, including the adamantyl retinoid ST1926, which is a potent anti-cancer agent. However, due to its limited bioavailability, the development of ST1926 has been restricted in phase I clinical trials. We have previously investigated the preclinical efficacy of ST1926 in CRC models. ST1926 displayed potent inhibitory and apoptotic effects in CRC cell lines by inducing early DNA damage and apoptosis. ST1926 significantly reduced the tumor doubling time and tumor burden in a xenograft CRC model. Therefore, we developed ST1926-NPs and assessed their efficacy in CRC models. ST1926-NPs were produced using Flash NanoPrecipitation with the amphiphilic diblock copolymer polystyrene-b-ethylene oxide and cholesterol as a co-stabilizer. ST1926 was formulated into NPs with a drug to polymer mass ratio of 1:2, providing a stable formulation for one week. The contin ST1926-NP diameter was 100 nm, with a polydispersity index of 0.245. Using the MTT cell viability assay, ST1926-NP exhibited potent anti-growth activities as naked ST1926 in HCT116 cells, at pharmacologically achievable concentrations. Future studies will be performed to study the anti-tumor activities and mechanism of action of ST1926-NPs in a xenograft mouse model and to detect the compound and its glucuroconjugated form in the plasma of mice. Ultimately, our studies will support the use of ST1926-NP formulations in enhancing the stability and bioavailability of ST1926 in CRC.

Keywords: nanoparticles, drug delivery, colorectal cancer, retinoids

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Authors: Chen Yuan, Nick Green, Stuart Blackburn

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The investment casting process offers a great freedom of design combined with the economic advantage of near net shape manufacturing. It is widely used for the production of high value precision cast parts in particularly in the aerospace sector. Various combinations of materials have been used to produce the ceramic moulds, but most investment foundries use a silica based binder system in conjunction with fused silica, zircon, and alumino-silicate refractories as both filler and coarse stucco materials. However, in the context of advancing alloy technologies, silica based systems are struggling to keep pace, especially when net-shape casting titanium alloys. Study has shown that the casting of titanium based alloys presents considerable problems, including the extensive interactions between the metal and refractory, and the majority of metal-mould interaction is due to reduction of silica, present as binder and filler phases, by titanium in the molten state. Cleaner, more refractory systems are being devised to accommodate these changes. Although yttria has excellent chemical inertness to titanium alloy, it is not very practical in a production environment combining high material cost, short slurry life, and poor sintering properties. There needs to be a cost effective solution to these issues. With limited options for using pure oxides, in this work, a silica-free magnesia spinel MgAl₂O₄ was used as a primary coat filler and alumina as a binder material to produce facecoat in the investment casting mould. A comparison system was also studied with a fraction of the rare earth oxide Y₂O₃ adding into the filler to increase the inertness. The stability of the MgAl₂O₄/Al₂O₃ and MgAl₂O₄/Y₂O₃/Al₂O₃ slurries was assessed by tests, including pH, viscosity, zeta-potential and plate weight measurement, and mould properties such as friability were also measured. The interaction between the face coat and titanium alloy was studied by both a flash re-melting technique and a centrifugal investment casting method. The interaction products between metal and mould were characterized using x-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and Energy Dispersive X-Ray Spectroscopy (EDS). The depth of the oxygen hardened layer was evaluated by micro hardness measurement. Results reveal that introducing a fraction of Y₂O₃ into magnesia spinel can significantly increase the slurry life and reduce the thickness of hardened layer during centrifugal casting.

Keywords: titanium alloy, mould, MgAl₂O₄, Y₂O₃, interaction, investment casting

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Authors: Kausar Alam, Mohammad Yazdi, Peiman Zogh, Ramin Motamed

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An earthquake is an unpredictable natural disaster. It induces liquefaction, which causes considerable damage to the structure, life support, and piping systems because of ground settlement. As a result, people are incredibly concerned about how to resolve the situation. Previous researchers adopted different ground improvement techniques to reduce the settlement of the structure during earthquakes. This study evaluates the effectiveness of lowering the water table as a technique to mitigate foundation settlement in liquefiable soil. The performance will be evaluated based on foundation settlement and the reduction of excessive pore water pressure. In this study, a scaled model was prepared based on a full-scale shale table experiment conducted at the University of California, San Diego (UCSD). The model ground consists of three soil layers having a relative density of 55%, 45%, and 90%, respectively. A shallow foundation is seated over an unsaturated crust layer. After preparation of the model ground, the water table was measured to be at 45, 40, and 35 cm (from the bottom). Then, the input motions were applied for 10 seconds, with a peak acceleration of 0.25g and a constant frequency of 2.73 Hz. Based on the experimental results, the effectiveness of the lowering water table in reducing the foundation settlement and excess pore water pressure was evident. The foundation settlement was reduced from 50 mm to 5 mm. In addition, lowering the water table as a mitigation measure is a cost-effective way to decrease liquefaction-induced building settlement.

Keywords: foundation settlement, ground water table, liquefaction, hake table test

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Authors: Ateeth Shetty, K. S. Jayappa, Ratheesh Ramakrishnan, A. S. Rajawat

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Suspended Sediment Concentration (SSC) was estimated for the period of four months (November, 2013 to February 2014) using Oceansat-2 (Ocean Colour Monitor) satellite images to understand the coastal dynamics and regional sediment transport, especially distribution and budgeting in coastal waters. The coastal zone undergoes continuous changes due to natural processes and anthropogenic activities. The importance of the coastal zone, with respect to safety, ecology, economy and recreation, demands a management strategy in which each of these aspects is taken into account. Monitoring and understanding the sediment dynamics and suspended sediment transport is an important issue for coastal engineering related activities. A study of the transport mechanism of suspended sediments in the near shore environment is essential not only to safeguard marine installations or navigational channels, but also for the coastal structure design, environmental protection and disaster reduction. Such studies also help in assessment of pollutants and other biological activities in the region. An accurate description of the sediment transport, caused by waves and tidal or wave-induced currents, is of great importance in predicting coastal morphological changes. Satellite-derived SSC data have been found to be useful for Indian coasts because of their high spatial (360 m), spectral and temporal resolutions. The present paper outlines the applications of state‐of‐the‐art operational Indian Remote Sensing satellite, Oceansat-2 to study the dynamics of sediment transport.

Keywords: suspended sediment concentration, ocean colour monitor, sediment transport, case – II waters

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Authors: Venkata Madhusudana Rao Kapavarapu

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The Intermediate Slug Catcher (ISC) facility was built to process nominally 234 MSCFD of export gas from the booster station on a day-to-day basis and to receive liquid slugs up to 1600 m³ (10,000 BBLS) in volume when the incoming 24” gas pipelines are pigged following upsets or production of non-dew-pointed gas from gathering centers. The maximum slug sizes expected are 812 m³ (5100 BBLS) in winter and 542 m³ (3400 BBLS) in summer after operating for a month or more at 100 MMSCFD of wet gas, being 60 MMSCFD of treated gas from the booster station, combined with 40 MMSCFD of untreated gas from gathering center. The water content is approximately 60% but may be higher if the line is not pigged for an extended period, owing to the relative volatility of the condensate compared to water. In addition to its primary function as a slug catcher, the ISC facility will receive pigged liquids from the upstream and downstream segments of the 14” condensate pipeline, returned liquids from the AGRP, pigged through the 8” pipeline, and blown-down fluids from the 14” condensate pipeline prior to maintenance. These fluids will be received in the condensate flash vessel or the condensate separator, depending on the specific operation, for the separation of water and condensate and settlement of solids scraped from the pipelines. Condensate meeting the colour and 200 ppm water specifications will be dispatched to the AGRP through the 14” pipeline, while off-spec material will be returned to BS-171 via the existing 10” condensate pipeline. When they are not in operation, the existing 24” export gas pipeline and the 10” condensate pipeline will be maintained under export gas pressure, ready for operation. The gas manifold area contains the interconnecting piping and valves needed to align the slug catcher with either of the 24” export gas pipelines from the booster station and to direct the gas to the downstream segment of either of these pipelines. The manifold enables the slug catcher to be bypassed if it needs to be maintained or if through-pigging of the gas pipelines is to be performed. All gas, whether bypassing the slug catcher or returning to the gas pipelines from it, passes through black powder filters to reduce the level of particulates in the stream. These items are connected to the closed drain vessel to drain the liquid collected. Condensate from the booster station is transported to AGRP through 14” condensate pipeline. The existing 10” condensate pipeline will be used as a standby and for utility functions such as returning condensate from AGRP to the ISC or booster station or for transporting off-spec fluids from the ISC back to booster station. The manifold contains block valves that allow the two condensate export lines to be segmented at the ISC, thus facilitating bi-directional flow independently in the upstream and downstream segments, which ensures complete pipeline integrity and facility integrity. Pipeline failures will be attended to with the latest technologies by remote techno plug techniques, and repair activities will be carried out as needed. Pipeline integrity will be evaluated with ili pigging to estimate the pipeline conditions.

Keywords: integrity, oil & gas, innovation, new technology

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Authors: Yibeltal Chanie Manie, Zebider Asire Munyelet

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5G and 6G technology offers enhanced quality of service with high data transmission rates, which necessitates the implementation of the Internet of Things (IoT) in 5G/6G architecture. In this paper, we proposed the integration of free space optical communication (FSO) with fiber sensor networks for IoT applications. Recently, free-space optical communications (FSO) are gaining popularity as an effective alternative technology to the limited availability of radio frequency (RF) spectrum. FSO is gaining popularity due to flexibility, high achievable optical bandwidth, and low power consumption in several applications of communications, such as disaster recovery, last-mile connectivity, drones, surveillance, backhaul, and satellite communications. Hence, high-speed FSO is an optimal choice for wireless networks to satisfy the full potential of 5G/6G technology, offering 100 Gbit/s or more speed in IoT applications. Moreover, machine learning must be integrated into the design, planning, and optimization of future optical wireless communication networks in order to actualize this vision of intelligent processing and operation. In addition, fiber sensors are important to achieve real-time, accurate, and smart monitoring in IoT applications. Moreover, we proposed deep learning techniques to estimate the strain changes and peak wavelength of multiple Fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensors using only the spectrum of FBGs obtained from the real experiment.

Keywords: optical sensor, artificial Intelligence, Internet of Things, free-space optics

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Authors: Ahmed El Naggar, Homyan Saleh

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Dams are crucial for flood control, water supply, and the creation of hydroelectric power. Every dam has a water conveyance system, such as a spillway, providing the safe discharge of catastrophic floods when necessary. Spillway design has historically been investigated in laboratory research owing to the absence of suitable full-scale flow monitoring equipment and safety problems. Prototype measurements of aerated flows are urgently needed to quantify projected scale effects and provide missing validation data for design guidelines and numerical simulations. In this work, an image-based investigation of free-surface flows on a tiered spillway was undertaken at the laboratory (fixed camera installation) and prototype size (drone video) (drone footage) (drone footage). The drone videos were generated using data from citizen science. Analyses permitted the measurement of the free-surface aeration inception point, air-water surface velocities, fluctuations, and residual energy at the chute's downstream end from a remote site. The prototype observations offered full-scale proof of concept, while laboratory results were efficiently confirmed against invasive phase-detection probe data. This paper stresses the efficacy of image-based analyses at prototype spillways. It highlights how citizen science data may enable academics better understand real-world air-water flow dynamics and offers a framework for a small collection of long-missing prototype data.

Keywords: remote sensing, aerated flows, large dams, proof of concept, dam spillways, air-water flows, prototype operation, remote sensing, inception point, optical flow, turbulence, residual energy

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Authors: Christopher B. Obida, George A. Blackburn, James D. Whyatt, Kirk T. Semple

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In many regions of the world, especially in developing countries, river network data are outdated or completely absent, yet such information is critical for supporting important functions such as flood mitigation efforts, land use and transportation planning, and the management of water resources. In this study, a method was developed for delineating river networks using Sentinel 1 imagery. Unsupervised classification was applied to multi-temporal Sentinel 1 data to discriminate water bodies from other land covers then the outputs were combined to generate a single persistent water bodies product. A thinning algorithm was then used to delineate river centre lines, which were converted into vector features and built into a topologically structured geometric network. The complex river system of the Niger Delta was used to compare the performance of the Sentinel-based method against alternative freely available water body products from United States Geological Survey, European Space Agency and OpenStreetMap and a river network derived from a Shuttle Rader Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model. From both raster-based and vector-based accuracy assessments, it was found that the Sentinel-based river network products were superior to the comparator data sets by a substantial margin. The geometric river network that was constructed permitted a flow routing analysis which is important for a variety of environmental management and planning applications. The extracted network will potentially be applied for modelling dispersion of hydrocarbon pollutants in Ogoniland, a part of the Niger Delta. The approach developed in this study holds considerable potential for generating up to date, detailed river network data for the many countries where such data are deficient.

Keywords: Sentinel 1, image processing, river delineation, large scale mapping, data comparison, geometric network

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Authors: Nir Nissim, Ran Yahalom, Tomer Lancewiki, Yuval Elovici, Boaz Lerner

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Background: Attackers increasingly take advantage of innocent users who tend to use USB devices casually, assuming these devices benign when in fact they may carry an embedded malicious behavior or hidden malware. USB devices have many properties and capabilities that have become the subject of malicious operations. Many of the recent attacks targeting individuals, and especially organizations, utilize popular and widely used USB devices, such as mice, keyboards, flash drives, printers, and smartphones. However, current detection tools, techniques, and solutions generally fail to detect both the known and unknown attacks launched via USB devices. Significance: We propose USBWARE, a project that focuses on the vulnerabilities of USB devices and centers on the development of a comprehensive detection framework that relies upon a crucial attack repository. USBWARE will allow researchers and companies to better understand the vulnerabilities and attacks associated with USB devices as well as providing a comprehensive platform for developing detection solutions. Methodology: The framework of USBWARE is aimed at accurate detection of both known and unknown USB-based attacks by a process that efficiently enhances the framework's detection capabilities over time. The framework will integrate two main security approaches in order to enhance the detection of USB-based attacks associated with a variety of USB devices. The first approach is aimed at the detection of known attacks and their variants, whereas the second approach focuses on the detection of unknown attacks. USBWARE will consist of six independent but complimentary detection modules, each detecting attacks based on a different approach or discipline. These modules include novel ideas and algorithms inspired from or already developed within our team's domains of expertise, including cyber security, electrical and signal processing, machine learning, and computational biology. The establishment and maintenance of the USBWARE’s dynamic and up-to-date attack repository will strengthen the capabilities of the USBWARE detection framework. The attack repository’s infrastructure will enable researchers to record, document, create, and simulate existing and new USB-based attacks. This data will be used to maintain the detection framework’s updatability by incorporating knowledge regarding new attacks. Based on our experience in the cyber security domain, we aim to design the USBWARE framework so that it will have several characteristics that are crucial for this type of cyber-security detection solution. Specifically, the USBWARE framework should be: Novel, Multidisciplinary, Trusted, Lightweight, Extendable, Modular and Updatable and Adaptable. Major Findings: Based on our initial survey, we have already found more than 23 types of USB-based attacks, divided into six major categories. Our preliminary evaluation and proof of concepts showed that our detection modules can be used for efficient detection of several basic known USB attacks. Further research, development, and enhancements are required so that USBWARE will be capable to cover all of the major known USB attacks and to detect unknown attacks. Conclusion: USBWARE is a crucial detection framework that must be further enhanced and developed.

Keywords: USB, device, cyber security, attack, detection

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Authors: Tamekloe Michael Kossivi, Kenichi Matsui

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Irrigation access is one of the essential rural development investment options that can significantly improve smallholder farmers’ agriculture productivity. Investment in irrigation infrastructural development to supply adequate water could improve food security, growth in income for farmers, poverty alleviation, and improve business and livelihood. This paper assesses smallholder farmers’ constraints and the needs to adopt small-scale irrigation for crops production in the South Tongu District of Ghana. The data collection involved database search, questionnaire survey, interview, and field work. The structured questionnaire survey was administered from September to November 2020 among 120 respondents in six purposively sampled irrigation communities in the District. The questions focused on small-scale irrigation development constraints and needs. As a result, we found that the respondents relied mainly on rainfall for agriculture production. They did not have adequate irrigation access. Even though the District is blessed with open arable lands and rich water sources for rice and vegetable production on a massive scale, water sources like the Lower Volta River, Tordzi River, and Avu Lagoon were not close enough to the respondents. The respondents faced inadequate credit support (100%), unreliable rainfall (76%), insufficient water supply (54%), and unreliable water delivery challenges on their farms (53%). Physical constraints for the respondents to adopt irrigation included flood (77%), drought (93%), inadequate irrigation technology (59%), and insufficient technical know-how (65%). Farmers were interested in investing in irrigation infrastructural development to enhance productivity on their farms only if they own the farmlands. External support from donors on irrigation systems did not allow smallholder farmers to control irrigation facilities.

Keywords: constraints, food security, needs, smallholder farmers, small-scale irrigation

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Authors: Adebola Adedugbe

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The challenge of post-harvest losses poses serious threats for food security in Nigeria and the north-eastern part with the country losing about $9billion annually due to postharvest losses in the sector. Post-harvest loss (PHL) is the quantitative and qualitative loss of food in various post-harvest operations. In Nigeria, post-harvest losses (PHL) have been a major challenge to food security and improved farmer’s income. In 2022, the Nigerian government had said over 30 percent of food produced by Nigerian farmers perish during post-harvest. For many in northeast Nigeria, agriculture is the predominant source of livelihood and income. The persistent communal conflicts, flood, decade-old attacks by boko haram and insurgency in this region have disrupted farming activities drastically, with farmlands becoming insecure and inaccessible as communities are forced to abandon ancestral homes, The impact of climate change is also affecting agricultural and fishing activities, leading to shortage of food supplies, acute hunger and loss of livelihood. This has continued to impact negatively on the region and country’s food production and availability making it loose billions of US dollars annually in income in this sector. The root cause of postharvest losses among others in crops, livestock and fisheries are lack of modern post-harvest equipment, chemical and lack of technologies used for combating losses. The 2019 Global Hunger Index showed Nigeria’s case was progressing from a ‘serious to alarming level’. As part of measures to address the problem of post-harvest losses experienced by farmers, the federal government of Nigeria concessioned 17 silos with 6000 metric tonne storage space to private sector to enable farmers to have access to storage facilities. This paper discusses the causes, effects and solutions in handling post-harvest losses and optimize returns on food security in northeast Nigeria.

Keywords: farmers, food security, northeast Nigeria, postharvest loss

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Authors: Akbar Khodavirdizadeh, Ali Nemati Babaylou, Hassan Moomivand

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The history of human access to water technique has been one of the factors in the formation of human civilizations in the ancient world. The technique that makes surface water and groundwater accessible to humans on the ground has been a clever technique in human life to reach the water. In this study, while examining the water technique of ancient Iran using the Qanats technique, the water supply system of different regions of the ancient world were also studied and compared. Six groups of the ancient region of ancient Greece (Archaic 480-750 BC and Classical 223-480 BC), Urartu in Tuspa (600-850 BC), Petra (106-168 BC), Ancient Rome (265 BC), and the ancient United States (1450 BC) and ancient Iranian water technologies were studied under water supply systems. Past water technologies in these areas: water transmission systems in primary urban centers, use of water structures in water control, use of bridges in water transfer, construction of waterways for water transfer, storage of rainfall, construction of various types of pottery- ceramic, lead, wood and stone pipes have been used in water transfer, flood control, water reservoirs, dams, channel, wells, and Qanat. The central plateau of Iran is one of the arid and desert regions. Archaeological, geomorphological, and paleontological studies of the central region of the Iranian plateau showed that without the use of Qanats, the possibility of urban civilization in this region was difficult and even impossible. Zarch aqueduct is the most important aqueduct in Yazd region. Qanat of Zarch is a plain Qanat with a gallery length of 80 km; its mother well is 85 m deep and has 2115 well shafts. The main purpose of building the Qanat of Zārch was to access the groundwater source and transfer it to the surface of the ground. Regarding the structure of the aqueduct and the technique of transferring water from the groundwater source to the surface, it has a great impact on being different from other water techniques in the ancient world. The results show that the use of water technologies in ancient is very important to understand the history of humanity in the use of hydraulic techniques.

Keywords: ancient water technologies, groundwaters, qanat, human history, Ancient Iran

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Authors: H. H. Elewa, E. M. Ramadan, A. M. Nosair

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Rainfall water harvesting is considered as an important tool for overcoming water scarcity in arid and semi-arid region. Wadi Watir in the southeastern part of Sinai Peninsula is considered as one of the main and active basins in the Gulf of Aqaba drainage system. It is characterized by steep hills mainly consist of impermeable rocks, whereas the streambeds are covered by a highly permeable mixture of gravel and sand. A comprehensive approach involving the integration of geographic information systems, remote sensing and watershed modeling was followed to identify the RWH capability in this area. Eight thematic layers, viz volume of annual flood, overland flow distance, maximum flow distance, rock or soil infiltration, drainage frequency density, basin area, basin slope and basin length were used as a multi-parametric decision support system for conducting weighted spatial probability models (WSPMs) to determine the potential areas for the RWH. The WSPMs maps classified the area into five RWH potentiality classes ranging from the very low to very high. Three performed WSPMs' scenarios for W. Watir reflected identical results among their maps for the high and very high RWH potentiality classes, which are the most suitable ones for conducting surface water harvesting techniques. There is also a reasonable match with respect to the potentiality of runoff harvesting areas with a probability of moderate, low and very low among the three scenarios. WSPM results have shown that the high and very high classes, which are the most suitable for the RWH are representing approximately 40.23% of the total area of the basin. Accordingly, several locations were decided for the establishment of water harvesting dams and cisterns to improve the water conditions and living environment in the study area.

Keywords: Sinai, Wadi Watir, remote sensing, geographic information systems, watershed modeling, runoff water harvesting

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Authors: Xiyue Wang, Shaoning Yan

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Cities in China today is faced with an increasingly serious river ecological crisis accompanying with the development of urbanization: waterlogging on account of the fragmented urban natural hydrological system; the limited ecological function of the hydrological system caused by a destruction of water system and waterfront ecological environment. Additionally, the eco-hydrological processes of rivers are affected by various environmental factors, which are more complex in the context of urban environment. Therefore, efficient hydrological monitoring and analysis tools, accurate and visual hydrological and hydraulic models are becoming more important basis for decision-makers and an important way for landscape architects to solve urban hydrological problems, formulating sustainable and forward-looking schemes. The study mainly introduces the river and flood analysis model based on the platform of Autodesk Civil 3D. Taking the Luanhe River in Qian'an City of Hebei Province as an example, the 3D models of the landform, river, embankment, shoal, pond, underground stream and other land features were initially built, with which the water transfer simulation analysis, river floodplain analysis, and river ecology analysis were carried out, ultimately the real-time visualized simulation and analysis of rivers in various hypothetical scenarios were realized. Through the establishment of digital hydrological and hydraulic model, the hydraulic data can be accurately and intuitively simulated, which provides basis for rational water system and benign urban ecological system design. Though, the hydrological and hydraulic model based on Autodesk Civil3D own its boundedness: the interaction between the model and other data and software is unfavorable; the huge amount of 3D data and the lack of basic data restrict the accuracy and application range. The hydrological and hydraulic model based on Autodesk Civil3D platform provides more possibility to access convenient and intelligent tool for urban planning and monitoring, a solid basis for further urban research and design.

Keywords: visualization, hydrological and hydraulic model, Autodesk Civil 3D, urban river

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Authors: Swapnil Kumar Singh

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Gamma-ray bursts (GRB's), short and intense pulses of low-energy γ rays, have fascinated astronomers and astrophysicists since their unexpected discovery in the late sixties. GRB'sare accompanied by long-lasting afterglows, and they are associated with core-collapse supernovae. The detection of delayed emission in X-ray, optical, and radio wavelength, or "afterglow," following a γ-ray burst can be described as the emission of a relativistic shell decelerating upon collision with the interstellar medium. While it is fair to say that there is strong diversity amongst the afterglow population, probably reflecting diversity in the energy, luminosity, shock efficiency, baryon loading, progenitor properties, circumstellar medium, and more, the afterglows of GRBs do appear more similar than the bursts themselves, and it is possible to identify common features within afterglows that lead to some canonical expectations. After an initial flash of gamma rays, a longer-lived "afterglow" is usually emitted at longer wavelengths (X-ray, ultraviolet, optical, infrared, microwave, and radio). It is a slowly fading emission at longer wavelengths created by collisions between the burst ejecta and interstellar gas. In X-ray wavelengths, the GRB afterglow fades quickly at first, then transitions to a less-steep drop-off (it does other stuff after that, but we'll ignore that for now). During these early phases, the X-ray afterglow has a spectrum that looks like a power law: flux F∝ E^β, where E is energy and beta is some number called the spectral index. This kind of spectrum is characteristic of synchrotron emission, which is produced when charged particles spiral around magnetic field lines at close to the speed of light. In addition to the outgoing forward shock that ploughs into the interstellar medium, there is also a so-called reverse shock, which propagates backward through the ejecta. In many ways," reverse" shock can be misleading; this shock is still moving outward from the restframe of the star at relativistic velocity but is ploughing backward through the ejecta in their frame and is slowing the expansion. This reverse shock can be dynamically important, as it can carry comparable energy to the forward shock. The early phases of the GRB afterglow still provide a good description even if the GRB is highly collimated since the individual emitting regions of the outflow are not in causal contact at large angles and so behave as though they are expanding isotropically. The majority of afterglows, at times typically observed, fall in the slow cooling regime, and the cooling break lies between the optical and the X-ray. Numerous observations support this broad picture for afterglows in the spectral energy distribution of the afterglow of the very bright GRB. The bluer light (optical and X-ray) appears to follow a typical synchrotron forward shock expectation (note that the apparent features in the X-ray and optical spectrum are due to the presence of dust within the host galaxy). We need more research in GRB and Particle Physics in order to unfold the mysteries of afterglow.

Keywords: GRB, synchrotron, X-ray, isotropic energy

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Authors: Hamish de Nett

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On 23rd June 2018, twelve young footballers from the Wild Boar Academy and their coach went to explore the Tham Luang cave in the Doi Nang Non mountain range in Chiang Rai Province, Northern Thailand. Whilst they were inside the cave, monsoon rains hit, and the complex became partially flooded. In the following days, Thai Navy SEALs and an international team of expert divers assembled at the cave complex in order to rescue the boys. Although it was only marginally reported in the Western press, Buddhism and ritual activities played a major role in the rescue and its aftermath. This paper utilises numerous news articles and books written by reporters who covered the cave rescue to uncover what the place of Buddhism was in the Tham Luang cave rescue. This paper initially sets out the development of Thai Buddhism and the Thai nation state, paying particular note to the tension in Thai Buddhism between Buddhism as it is popularly practised and normative, state-favoured Buddhism. Secondly, this paper demonstrates that, during the Tham Luang cave rescue, Buddhism helped people cope with the disaster, provided an explanation for its occurrence, and allowed bystanders some efficacy in the process. Thirdly, this paper discusses how Buddhism helped people to give thanks after the rescue, achieve reconciliation, and gain closure. Finally, this paper analyses how the government and the political sphere utilised Buddhism during the rescue. The conclusion reached is that the Buddhism practiced during the Tham Luang cave rescue and its aftermath is representative of the wider tension between popular Buddhism and normative state-favoured Buddhism that is currently present within Thai Buddhism and has been for centuries.

Keywords: cave rescue, contemporary Buddhism, lived religion, Thai Buddhism, Tham Luang cave rescue

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Authors: Elif Bakkaloglu, Necdet Torunbalci

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The fact of earthquakes in Turkiye is an inevitable natural disaster. Therefore, buildings must be prepared for this natural hazard. Especially in hospital buildings, earthquake resistance is an essential point because hospitals are one of the first places where people come after an earthquake. Although hospital buildings are more suitable for horizontal architecture, it is necessary to construct and expand multi-storey hospital buildings due to difficulties in finding suitable places as a result of excessive urbanization, difficulties in obtaining appropriate size land and decrease in suitable places and increase in land values. In Turkiye, using seismic isolators in public hospitals, which are placed in first-degree earthquake zone and have more than 100 beds, is made obligatory by general instruction. As a result of this decision, it may sometimes be necessary to construct seismic isolated multi-storey hospital buildings in cities where those problems are experienced. Although widespread use of seismic isolators in Japan, there are few multi-storey buildings in which seismic isolators are used in Turkiye. As it is known, base isolation systems are the most effective methods of earthquake resistance, as number of floors increases, center of gravity moves away from base in multi-storey buildings, increasing the overturning effect and limiting the use of these systems. In this context, it is aimed to investigate structural systems of multi-storey buildings which built using seismic isolation methods in the World. In addition to this, a working principle is suggested for disseminating seismic isolators in multi-storey hospital buildings. The results to be obtained from the study will guide architects who design multi-storey hospital buildings in their architectural designs and engineers in terms of structural system design.

Keywords: earthquake, energy absorbing systems, hospital, seismic isolation systems

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Authors: Lijuan Wang, Junsheng Huo, Jing Sun, Wenxian Li, Jian Huang, Lin Ling, Yiping Zhou, Chengyu Huang, Jifang Hu

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Backgrounds and Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the impact of highly nutrient-dense complementary food supplement-Yingyangbao, at the time of 3 months after Wenchuan earthquake, on the anemia of young children in a county in Sichuan province. Methods: The young children aged 6-23 months in the county were fed one sachet Yingyangbao per day. Yingyangbao were distributed for 15 months for free. The children entering 6 months age would be included. The length, weight and hemoglobin of the children aged 6-29 months were assessed at baseline (n=257) and Yingyangbao intervention for 6 (n=218) and 15 months (n=253) by cluster sampling. Growth status has not been described in the paper. The analysis was conducted based on 6-11, 12-17, 18-23 and 24-29 months. Results: It showed that the hemoglobin concentration in each group among the 4 groups increased by 4.9, 6.4, 8.0, 9.5 g/L after 6 months and 12.7, 11.4, 16.7, 15.7 g/L after 15 months compared to the baseline, respectively. The total anemia prevalence in each group was significantly lower after 6 and 15 months than the baseline (P<0.001), except the 6-11 months group after 6 months because of fewer Yingyangbao consumption. Total moderate anemia rate decreased from 18.3% to 5.5% after 6 months, and kept decreasing to 0.8% after another 9 months. The hemoglobin concentration was significantly correlated with the amount of Yingyangbao consumption(P<0.001) The anemia rate was significantly different based on the Yingyangbao compliance (P<0.001). Conclusion: It was concluded that Yingyangbao which contains quality protein, vitamins and micronutrients intervened 15 months could be effective for the improvement of anemia of young children. The study provides the support that the application of the complementary food supplements to reduce the anemia of young children in the emergency of natural disaster.

Keywords: young children, anemia, nutrition intervention, complementary food supplements, Yingyangbao

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Authors: Ayham Fattoum, Simos Chari, Duncan Shaw

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Volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) conditions threaten systems viability with emerging and novel events requiring immediate and localized responses. Such responsiveness is only possible through devolved freedom and emancipated decision-making. The Viable System Model (VSM) recognizes the need and suggests maximizing autonomy to localize decision-making and minimize residual complexity. However, exercising delegated autonomy in VUCA requires confidence and knowledge to use intuition and guidance to maintain systemic coherence. This paper explores the role of intuition as an enabler of emancipated decision-making and autonomy under VUCA. Intuition allows decision-makers to use their knowledge and experience to respond rapidly to novel events. This paper offers three contributions to VSM. First, it designs a system model that illustrates the role of intuitive decision-making in managing complexity and maintaining viability. Second, it takes a black-box approach to theory development in VSM to model the role of autonomy and intuition. Third, the study uses a multi-stage discovery-oriented approach (DOA) to develop theory, with each stage combining literature, data analysis, and model/theory development and identifying further questions for the subsequent stage. We synthesize literature (e.g., VSM, complexity management) with seven months of field-based insights (interviews, workshops, and observation of a live disaster exercise) to develop a framework of intuitive complexity management framework and VSM models. The results have practical implications for enhancing the resilience of organizations and communities.

Keywords: Intuition, complexity management, decision-making, viable system model

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Authors: Hasmithaa Neha, Atul Kumar Patidar, Girish Ch Kothyari

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The northward convergence of the Indian plate has a dominating influence over the structural and geomorphic development of the Himalayan region. The highly deformed and complex stratigraphy in the area arises from a confluence of exogenic and endogenetic geological processes. This region frequently experiences natural hazards such as debris flows, flash floods, avalanches, landslides, and earthquakes due to its harsh and steep topography and fragile rock formations. Therefore, remote sensing technique-based examination and real-time monitoring of tectonically sensitive regions may provide crucial early warnings and invaluable data for effective hazard mitigation strategies. In order to identify unusual changes in the river gradients, the current study demonstrates a spatial quantitative geomorphic analysis of the upper Alaknanda River basin, Uttarakhand Himalaya, India, using gradient length anomaly analysis (GLAA). This basin is highly vulnerable to ground creeping and landslides due to the presence of active faults/thrusts, toe-cutting of slopes for road widening, development of heavy engineering projects on the highly sheared bedrock, and periodic earthquakes. The intersecting joint sets developed in the bedrocks have formed wedges that have facilitated the recurrence of several landslides. The main objective of current research is to identify abnormal gradient lengths, indicating potential landslide-prone zones. High-resolution digital elevation data and geospatial techniques are used to perform this analysis. The results of GLAA are corroborated with the historical landslide events and ultimately used for the generation of landslide susceptibility maps of the current study area. The preliminary results indicate that approximately 3.97% of the basin is stable, while about 8.54% is classified as moderately stable and suitable for human habitation. However, roughly 19.89% fall within the zone of moderate vulnerability, 38.06% are classified as vulnerable, and 29% fall within the highly vulnerable zones, posing risks for geohazards, including landslides, glacial avalanches, and earthquakes. This research provides valuable insights into the spatial distribution of landslide-prone areas. It offers a basis for implementing proactive measures for landslide risk reduction, including land-use planning, early warning systems, and infrastructure development techniques.

Keywords: landslide vulnerability, geohazard, GLA, upper Alaknanda Basin, Uttarakhand Himalaya

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Authors: Ahmed A. Lugard, Mohammed A. Aliyu

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This paper studied the influence of urban development and its accompanied land surface transformation on sediment concentration of a natural flowing Ginzo river across the city of Katsina. An opposite twin river known as Tille river, which is less urbanized, was used to compare the result of the sediment concentration of the Ginzo River in order to ascertain the consequences of the urban area on impacting the sediment concentration. An instrument called USP 61 point integrating cable way sampler described by Gregory and walling (1973), was used to collect the suspended sediment samples in the wet season months of June, July, August and September. The result obtained in the study shows that only the sample collected at the peripheral site of the city, which is mostly farmland areas resembles the results in the four sites of Tille river, which is the reference stream in the study. It was found to be only + 10% different from one another, while at the other three sites of the Ginzo which are highly urbanized the disparity ranges from 35-45% less than what are obtained at the four sites of Tille River. In the generalized assessment, the t-distribution result applied to the two set of data shows that there is a significant difference between the sediment concentration of urbanized River Ginzo and that of less urbanized River Tille. The study further discovered that the less sediment concentration found in urbanized River Ginzo is attributed to concretization of surfaced, tarred roads, concretized channeling of segments of the river including the river bed and reserved open grassland areas, all within the catchments. The study therefore concludes that urbanization affect not only the hydrology of an urbanized river basin, but also the sediment concentration which is a significant aspect of its geomorphology. This world certainly affects the flood plain of the basin at a certain point which might be a suitable land for cultivation. It is recommended here that further studies on the impact of urbanization on River Basins should focus on all elements of geomorphology as it has been on hydrology. This would make the work rather complete as the two disciplines are inseparable from each other. The authorities concern should also trigger a more proper environmental and land use management policies to arrest the menace of land degradation and related episodic events.

Keywords: environment, infiltration, river, urbanization

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Authors: A. Terfous, Y. Liu, A. Ghenaim, P. A. Garambois

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With increasing urbanization worldwide, it is crucial to sustainably manage sediment flows in urban networks and especially in stormwater detention basins. One key aspect is to propose optimized designs for detention tanks in order to best reduce flood peak flows and in the meantime settle particles. It is, therefore, necessary to understand complex flows patterns and sediment deposition conditions in stormwater detention basins. The aim of this paper is to study flow structure and particle deposition pattern for a given tank geometry in view to control and maximize sediment deposition. Both numerical simulation and experimental works were done to investigate the flow and sediment distribution in a storm tank with a cavity. As it can be indicated, the settle distribution of the particle in a rectangular tank is mainly determined by the flow patterns and the bed shear stress. The flow patterns in a rectangular tank differ with different geometry, entrance flow rate and the water depth. With the changing of flow patterns, the bed shear stress will change respectively, which also play an influence on the particle settling. The accumulation of the particle in the bed changes the conditions at the bottom, which is ignored in the investigations, however it worth much more attention, the influence of the accumulation of the particle on the sedimentation should be important. The approach presented here is based on the resolution of the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations to account for turbulent effects and also a passive particle transport model. An analysis of particle deposition conditions is presented in this paper in terms of flow velocities and turbulence patterns. Then sediment deposition zones are presented thanks to the modeling with particle tracking method. It is shown that two recirculation zones seem to significantly influence sediment deposition. Due to the possible overestimation of particle trap efficiency with standard wall functions and stick conditions, further investigations seem required for basal boundary conditions based on turbulent kinetic energy and shear stress. These observations are confirmed by experimental investigations processed in the laboratory.

Keywords: storm sewers, sediment deposition, numerical simulation, experimental investigation

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Authors: Mohammed Seyam, Faridah Othman, Ahmed El-Shafie

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The early warning of high stream flow events (HSF) and floods is an important aspect in the management of surface water and rivers systems. This process can be performed using either process-based models or data driven-based models such as artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. The main goal of this study is to develop efficient AI-based model for predicting the real-time hourly stream flow (Q) and apply it as early warning tool of HSF and floods in the downstream area of the Selangor River basin, taken here as a paradigm of humid tropical rivers in Southeast Asia. The performance of AI-based models has been improved through the integration of the lag time (Lt) estimation in the modelling process. A total of 8753 patterns of Q, water level, and rainfall hourly records representing one-year period (2011) were utilized in the modelling process. Six hydrological scenarios have been arranged through hypothetical cases of input variables to investigate how the changes in RF intensity in upstream stations can lead formation of floods. The initial SF was changed for each scenario in order to include wide range of hydrological situations in this study. The performance evaluation of the developed AI-based model shows that high correlation coefficient (R) between the observed and predicted Q is achieved. The AI-based model has been successfully employed in early warning throughout the advance detection of the hydrological conditions that could lead to formations of floods and HSF, where represented by three levels of severity (i.e., alert, warning, and danger). Based on the results of the scenarios, reaching the danger level in the downstream area required high RF intensity in at least two upstream areas. According to results of applications, it can be concluded that AI-based models are beneficial tools to the local authorities for flood control and awareness.

Keywords: floods, stream flow, hydrological modelling, hydrology, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Emily Injete Amondo, Alisher Mirzabaev, Emmanuel Rukundo

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Children in rural farming households are often vulnerable to a multitude of risks, including health risks associated with climate change and variability. Cognizant of this, this study empirically traced the relationship between climate variability and nutritional health outcomes in rural children while identifying the cause-and-effect transmission mechanisms. We combined four waves of the rich Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS), part of the World Bank Living Standards Measurement Studies (LSMS) for the period 2009-2014, with long-term and high-frequency rainfall and temperature datasets. Self-reported drought and flood shock variables were further used in separate regressions for triangulation purposes and robustness checks. Panel fixed effects regressions were applied in the empirical analysis, accounting for a variety of causal identification issues. The results showed significant negative outcomes for children’s anthropometric measurements due to the impacts of moderate and extreme droughts, extreme wet spells, and heatwaves. On the contrary, moderate wet spells were positively linked with nutritional measures. Agricultural production and child diarrhea were the main transmission channels, with heatwaves, droughts, and high rainfall variability negatively affecting crop output. The probability of diarrhea was positively related to increases in temperature and dry spells. Results further revealed that children in households who engaged in ex-ante or anticipatory risk-reducing strategies such as savings had better health outcomes as opposed to those engaged in ex-post coping such as involuntary change of diet. These results highlight the importance of adaptation in smoothing the harmful effects of climate variability on the health of rural households and children in Uganda.

Keywords: extreme weather events, undernutrition, diarrhea, agricultural production, gridded weather data

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Authors: Md Y. Reja, Samuel D. Brody, Wesley E. Highfield, Galen D. Newman

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Historically, wetlands in the United States have been lost due to agriculture, anthropogenic activities, and rapid urbanization along the coast. Such losses of wetlands have resulted in high flooding risk for coastal communities over the period of time. In addition, alteration of wetlands via the Section 404 Clean Water Act permits can increase the flooding risk to future hurricane events, as the cumulative impact of this program is poorly understood and under-accounted. Further, recovery after hurricane events is acting as an encouragement for new development and reconstruction activities by converting wetlands under the wetland alteration permitting program. This study investigates the degree to which hurricane recovery activities in coastal communities are undermining the ability of these places to absorb the impacts of future storm events. Specifically, this work explores how and to what extent wetlands are being affected by the federal permitting program post-Hurricane Ike in 2008. Wetland alteration patterns are examined across three counties (Harris, Galveston, and Chambers County) along the Texas Gulf Coast over a 10-year time period, from 2004-2013 (five years before and after Hurricane Ike) by conducting descriptive spatial analyses. Results indicate that after Hurricane Ike, the number of permits substantially increased in Harris and Chambers County. The vast majority of individual and nationwide type permits were issued within the 100-year floodplain, storm surge zones, and areas damaged by Ike flooding, suggesting that recovery after the hurricane is compromising the ecological resiliency on which coastal communities depend. The authors expect that the findings of this study can increase awareness to policy makers and hazard mitigation planners regarding how to manage wetlands during a long-term recovery process to maintain their natural functions for future flood mitigation.

Keywords: ecological resiliency, Hurricane Ike, recovery, Section 404 Permitting, wetland alteration

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Authors: Néstor Iván Rojas, Wilson Medina Sierra

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Managing spatial information is described through a Geographic Information System (GIS), for some neighborhoods in the city of Tunja, in relation to the structural typology of the buildings. The use of GIS provides tools that facilitate the capture, processing, analysis and dissemination of cartographic information, product quality evaluation of the classification of buildings. Allows the development of a method that unifies and standardizes processes information. The project aims to generate a geographic database that is useful to the entities responsible for planning and disaster prevention and care for vulnerable populations, also seeks to be a basis for seismic vulnerability studies that can contribute in a study of urban seismic microzonation. The methodology consists in capturing the plat including road naming, neighborhoods, blocks and buildings, to which were added as attributes, the product of the evaluation of each of the housing data such as the number of inhabitants and classification, year of construction, the predominant structural systems, the type of mezzanine board and state of favorability, the presence of geo-technical problems, the type of cover, the use of each building, damage to structural and non-structural elements . The above data are tabulated in a spreadsheet that includes cadastral number, through which are systematically included in the respective building that also has that attribute. Geo-referenced data base is obtained, from which graphical outputs are generated, producing thematic maps for each evaluated data, which clearly show the spatial distribution of the information obtained. Using GIS offers important advantages for spatial information management and facilitates consultation and update. Usefulness of the project is recognized as a basis for studies on issues of planning and prevention.

Keywords: microzonation, buildings, geo-processing, cadastral number

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Authors: Ojetunde Ojewola, Mark Morgan, Sonja Wilhelm-Stanis

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State parks and historic sites are vulnerable to extreme weather events which can affect visitor experiences, management priorities, and legislative requests for disaster relief funds. Recently, global attention has been focused on the perceptions of global warming and how the presence of extreme weather events might impact protected areas, both now and in the future. The effects of climate change are not equally distributed across the United States, leading to varied perceptions based on personal experience with extreme weather events. This study describes employee perceptions of vulnerability and resilience in Missouri State Parks & Historic Sites due to extreme weather events that occur across the state but grouped according to physiographic provinces. Using a four-point rating scale, perceptions of vulnerability and resilience were divided into high and low sub-groups, thus allowing researchers to construct a two by two typology of employee responses. Subsequently, this data was used to develop a three-point continuum of environmental concern (higher scores meant more concern). Employee scores were then compared against a statewide assessment which combined social, economic, infrastructural and environmental indicators of vulnerability and resilience. State park employees thought the system was less vulnerable and more resilient to climate change than data found in statewide assessment This result was also consistent in three out of five physiographic regions across Missouri. Implications suggest that Missouri state park should develop a climate change adaptation strategy for emergency preparedness.

Keywords: extreme weather events, resilience, state parks, vulnerability

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Authors: I. Agboola Julius, Christopher A. Kumolu-Johnson, O. Kolade Rafiu, A. Saba Abdulwakil

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This work elucidates on mangrove diversity, trends of change, factors responsible for loss over the years and implications for sustainable livelihoods of locals in four villages (Ajido (L1), Tarkwa bay (L2), University of Lagos (L3), and Ikosi (L4)) along the coast of Lagos, Nigeria. Primary data were collected through field survey, questionnaires, interviews, and review of existing literature. Field observation and data analysis reveals mangrove diversity as low and varied on a spatial scale, where Margalef’s Diversity Index (D) was 0.368, 0.269, 0.326, and 0.333, respectively for L1, L2, L3, and L4. Shannon Weiner’s Index (H) was estimated to be 1.003, 1.460, 1.160, 1.046, and Specie Richness (E) 0.913, 0.907, 0.858, and 0.015, respectively, for the four villages. Also, The Simpson’s index of diversity was analyzed to be 0.632, 0. 731, 0.647, 0.667, and Simpson’s reciprocal index 2.717, 3.717, 3.060, and 3.003, respectively, for the four villages. Chi-square test was used to analyze the impact of mangrove loss on the sustainable livelihood of coastal communities. Calculated Chi-square (X2) value (5) was higher than tabulated value (4.30), suggesting that loss of mangrove wetlands impacted on local communities’ livelihood at the four villages. Analyses of causes and trends of mangrove wetland loss over the years suggest that urbanization, fuel wood and agricultural activities are major causes. Current degradation observed in mangrove wetlands on the Lagos coast suggest a reduction in mangroves biodiversity and associated fauna with potential cascading effects on higher trophic levels such as fisheries. Low yield in fish catch, reduction in income and increasing cases of natural disaster has culminated in threats to sustainable livelihoods of local communities along the coast of Lagos.

Keywords: Mangroves, lagos coast, fisheries, management

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Authors: Odey Moses Ogah, Felix Terhemba Ikyereve

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The study was carried out to analyzed risks in financing agriculture by agricultural cooperatives in Benue State, Nigeria. The study made use of research questionnaires for data collection. A multistage sampling technique was used to select a sample of 210 respondents from 21 agricultural cooperatives. Both descriptive and inferential statistics were employed in data analysis. Loan defaulting (66.7%) and reduction in savings by members (51.4%) were the major causes of risks faced by agricultural cooperatives in financing agriculture in the study area. Other causes include adverse changes in commodity prices (48.6%), disaster (45.7%), among others. It was found that risks adversely influence the profitability and competition of agricultural cooperatives (82.9%). Multiple regression analysis results showed that the coefficient of multiple determinations was 0.67, implying that the explanatory variables included in the model accounted for 67% of the variation in the level of profitability of agricultural cooperatives. The number of loans, average amount of loan and the interest rate were significant and important determinants of profitability of the cooperatives. The majority of the respondents (88.6%) made use of loan guarantors as a strategy of managing loan default/no repayment. It was found that the majority (70%) of the respondents were faced with the challenge of lack of insurance cover. The study recommends that agricultural cooperative officials should be encouraged to undergo formal training and education to easily acquire administrative skills in the management of agricultural loans; Farmer's loan size should be increased and released on time to enable them to use it effectively. Policies that enhance insuring farm activities should be put in place to discourage farmers from risk aversion.

Keywords: agriculture, analysis, cooperative, finance, risks

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