Search results for: first passage probability theory

Authors: Punnoose A. K.

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This paper presents an approach for identifying noisy speech recording using a multi-layer perception (MLP) trained to predict phonemes from acoustic features. Characteristics of the MLP posteriors are explored for clean speech and noisy speech at the frame level. Appropriate density functions are used to fit the softmax probability of the clean and noisy speech. A function that takes into account the ratio of the softmax probability density of noisy speech to clean speech is formulated. These phoneme independent scoring is weighted using a phoneme-specific weightage to make the scoring more robust. Simple thresholding is used to identify the noisy speech recording from the clean speech recordings. The approach is benchmarked on standard databases, with a focus on precision.

Keywords: noisy speech identification, speech pre-processing, noise robustness, feature engineering

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Authors: Wook-Won Kim, Je-Seok Shin, Jin-O Kim

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This paper propose the method for optimal scheduling for battery energy storage system with reliability constraint of energy storage system in reliability aspect. The optimal scheduling problem is solved by dynamic programming with proposed transition matrix. Proposed optimal scheduling method guarantees the minimum fuel cost within specific reliability constraint. For evaluating proposed method, the timely capacity outage probability table (COPT) is used that is calculated by convolution of probability mass function of each generator. This study shows the result of optimal schedule of energy storage system.

Keywords: energy storage system (ESS), optimal scheduling, dynamic programming, reliability constraints

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Authors: S. B. Kumbalavati, J. D. Mallapur, K. Y. Bendigeri

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A mobile Ad-hoc network (MANET) is a multihop wireless network where nodes communicate each other without any pre-deployed infrastructure. There is no central administrating unit. Hence, MANET is generally prone to many of the attacks. These attacks may alter, release or deny data. These attacks are nothing but intrusions. Intrusion is a set of actions that attempts to compromise integrity, confidentiality and availability of resources. A major issue in the design and operation of ad-hoc network is sharing the common spectrum or common channel bandwidth among all the nodes. We are performing intrusion detection using game theory approach. Game theory is a mathematical tool for analysing problems of competition and negotiation among the players in any field like marketing, e-commerce and networking. In this paper mathematical model is developed using game theory approach and intruders are detected and removed. Bandwidth utilization is estimated and comparison is made between bandwidth utilization with intrusion detection technique and without intrusion detection technique. Percentage of intruders and efficiency of the network is analysed.

Keywords: ad-hoc network, IDS, game theory, sensor networks

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Authors: Benjamin Sonnenreich

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Brittle fracture failure probability is best described using a stochastic approach which is based on the 'weakest link concept' and the connection between a microstructure and macroscopic fracture scale. A general theoretical and experimental framework is presented to predict the uniaxial strength distribution according to independent uniaxial test data. The framework takes as input the applied stresses, the geometry, the materials, the defect distributions and the relevant random variables from uniaxial test results and gives as output an overall failure probability that can be used to improve the reliability of practical designs. Additionally, the method facilitates comparisons of strength data from several sources, uniaxial tests, and sample geometries.

Keywords: brittle fracture, strength distribution, uniaxial, weakest link concept

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Authors: Baoshan Wang

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The present study investigates how music theory has developed across different countries due to their diverse histories, religions, and cultural differences. It is unknown how these various factors may contribute to differences in music theory across countries. Therefore, we examine the differences between China and Greece, which have developed unique music theories over time. Specifically, our analysis looks at musical notation and scales. For example, Tonal music originates from Greece, which harbors quite complex notation and scaling. There exist seven notes in each scale within seven modes of scales. Each mode of the diatonic scale has a unique temperament, two of which are most commonly used in modern music. In contrast, we find that Chinese music has only five notes in its scales. Interestingly, a unique feature of Chinese music theory is that there is no half-step, resulting in a highly divergent and culture-specific sound. Fascinatingly, these differences may arise from the contrasting ways that Western and Eastern musicians perceive music. While Western musicians tend to believe in music “without borders,” Eastern musicians generally embrace differing perspectives. Yet, the vast majority of colleges or music conservatories teach the borderless theory of Western music, which renders the music educational system incomplete. This is critically important because learning music is not simply a profession for musicians. Rather, it is an intermediary to facilitate understanding and appreciation for different countries’ cultures and religions. Education is undoubtedly the optimal mode to promote different countries’ music theory so people across the world can learn more about music and, in turn, each other. Even though Western music theory is predominantly taught, it is crucial we also pursue an understanding of other countries’ music because their unique aspects contribute to the systematic completeness of Music Theory in its entirety.

Keywords: culture, development, music theory, music history, religion, western music

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Authors: Ali Mustafa Elshawesh, Mohamed Abdulali

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The paper presents an approach to dimension circuit switched networks and find the relationship between the parameters of the circuit switched networks on the condition of specific probability of call blocking. Our work is creating a Simulation code based on Erlang (B) formula to draw graphs which show two curves for each graph; one of simulation and the other of calculated. These curves represent the relationships between average number of calls and average call duration with the probability of call blocking. This simulation code facilitates to select the appropriate parameters for circuit switched networks.

Keywords: Erlang B formula, call blocking, telephone system dimension, Markov model, link capacity

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Authors: Kisno Umbar

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Arabic grammar (nahwu) is one of the most important disciplines to learn about the Islamic literature (kitab al-turats). In the last century, learning Arabic grammar was difficult for both the Arabian or non-Arabian native. Most of the traditional nahwu scholars viewed that the theory of amil is a major problem. The views had influenced large number of modern nahwu scholars, and some of them refuse the theory of amil to simplify Arabic grammar to make it easier. The aim of the study is to compare many views of the modern nahwu scholars about the theory of amil including their reasons. In addition, the study is to reveal whether they follow classic scholars or give a view. The author uses literature study approach to get data of modern nahwu scholars from their books as a primary resource. As a secondary resource, the author uses the updated relevant researches from journals about the theory of amil. Besides, the author put on several resources from the traditional nahwu scholars to compare the views. The analysis showed the contrasting views about the theory of amil. Most of the scholars refuse the amil because it isn’t originally derived from Arabic tradition, but it is influenced by Aristotelian philosophy. The others persistently use the amil inasmuch as it is one of the characteristics that differ Arabic language and other languages.

Keywords: Arabic grammar, Amil, Arabic tradition, Aristotelian philosophy

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Authors: Farhan Alam Farhan Alam, Fatah Nugroho, Setyawan Wahyu Pradana

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Tan Malaka was a great Indonesian Marxism thinker. His idea of Marxism give encouragement to the struggle for Indonesian independence. Furthermore, it refers to what Marx said as the flexibility of a Marxist. Tan Malaka developed the Marxist theory against what have already existed so that Marxism can be harmonized and compatible with the context of Indonesia. For example, Tan Malaka initiated the cooperation between the Marxist movement and Pan-Islamism. The collaboration of Islam with Marxism which is so contradictive at that time was seen by Tan Malaka as a necessity in order to against capitalism. By using study literature and historiography methods, this paper attempts to analyze the application of the Marxism theory in the Tan Malaka’s perspective in Indonesia today in order to counter capitalism currently. His perspective combines Marxism with Islam as a solid collaboration of ideology.

Keywords: Indonesia, Marxism, Islam, Marxist theory, Tan Malaka

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Authors: Desmond Agbolade Ademola

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This work aimed to introduce a theory, called Guided Energy Theory of a particle that answered questions that arise from quantum foundation, quantum mechanics theory, and interpretation such as: what is nature of wavefunction? Is mathematical formalism of wavefunction correct? Does wavefunction collapse during measurement? Do quantum physical entanglement and many world interpretations really exist? In addition, is there uncertainty in the physical reality of our nature as being concluded in the Quantum theory? We have been able to show by the fundamental analysis presented in this work that the way quantum mechanics theory, and interpretation describes nature is not correlated with physical reality. Because, we discovered amongst others that, (1) Guided energy theory of a particle fundamentally provides complete physical observable series of quantized measurement of a particle momentum, force, energy e.t.c. in a given distance and time.In contrast, quantum mechanics wavefunction describes that nature has inherited probabilistic and indeterministic physical quantities, resulting in unobservable physical quantities that lead to many worldinterpretation.(2) Guided energy theory of a particle fundamentally predicts that it is mathematically possible to determine precise quantized measurementof position and momentum of a particle simultaneously. Because, there is no uncertainty in nature; nature however naturally guides itself against uncertainty. Contrary to the conclusion in quantum mechanics theory that, it is mathematically impossible to determine the position and the momentum of a particle simultaneously. Furthermore, we have been able to show by this theory that, it is mathematically possible to determine quantized measurement of force acting on a particle simultaneously, which is not possible on the premise of quantum mechanics theory. (3) It is evidently shown by our theory that, guided energy does not collapse, only describes the lopsided nature of a particle behavior in motion. This pretty offers us insight on gradual process of engagement - convergence and disengagement – divergence of guided energy holders which further highlight the picture how wave – like behavior return to particle-like behavior and how particle – like behavior return to wave – like behavior respectively. This further proves that the particles’ behavior in motion is oscillatory in nature. The mathematical formalism of Guided energy theory shows that nature is certainty whereas the mathematical formalism of Quantum mechanics theory shows that nature is absolutely probabilistics. In addition, the nature of wavefunction is the guided energy of the wave. In conclusion, the fundamental mathematical formalism of Quantum mechanics theory is wrong.

Keywords: momentum, physical entanglement, wavefunction, uncertainty

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Authors: J. L. Oliver, T. Agryzkov, L. Tortosa, J. Vicent, J. Santacruz

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This paper aims to demonstrate how the use of Network Theory can be applied to a very interesting and complex urban situation: The parts of a city which may have some patrimonial value, but because of their lack of relevant architectural elements, they are not considered to be historic in a conventional sense. In this paper, we use the suburb of La Villaflora in the city of Quito, Ecuador as our case study. We first propose a system of indicators as a tool to characterize and quantify the historic value of a geographic area. Then, we apply these indicators to the suburb of La Villaflora and use Network Theory to understand and propose actions.

Keywords: graphs, mathematics, networks, urban studies

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Authors: Nkereke Essien

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The study seeks to analyze tone in the Educated Nigerian accent of English (ENAE) using the three tones: Low (L), High (H) and Low-High (LH). The aim is to find out whether there are any differences or similarities in the performance of the experimental group and the control. To achieve this, twenty educated Nigerian speakers of English who are educated in the language were selected by a Stratified Random Sampling (SRS) technique from two federal universities in Nigeria. They were given a passage to read and their intonation patterns were compared with that of a native speaker (control). The data were analyzed using Pierrehumbert’s (1980) intonation system of analysis. Three different approaches were employed in the analysis of the intonation Phrase (IP) as used by Pierrehumbert: perceptual, statistical and acoustic. We first analyzed our data from the passage and utterances using Willcoxon Matched Pairs Signs Ranks Test to establish the differences between the performance of the experimental group and the control. Then, the one-way Analysis of variance (ANOVA) statistical and Tukey-Krammar Post Hoc Tests were used to test for any significant difference in the performances of the twenty subjects. The acoustic data were presented to corroborate both the perceptual and statistical findings. Finally, the tonal patterns of the selected subjects in the three categories - A, B, C, were compared with those of the control. Our findings revealed that the tonal pattern of the Educated Nigerian Accent of English (ENAE) is significantly different from the tonal pattern of the Standard British Accent of English (SBAE) as represented by the control. A high preference for unidirectional tones, especially, the high tones was observed in the performance of the experimental group. Also, high tones do not necessarily correspond to stressed syllables and low tones to unstressed syllables.

Keywords: accent, intonation phrase (IP), tonal patterns, tone

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Authors: Suprihatin Soewarto

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The background of writing this paper is to assess the truth of rejection of some Muslim scholars who develop Islamic economics on the concept of consumer satisfaction and replace it with the concept of maslahah. In the perspective of Islamic law, this rejection attitude needs to be verified in order to know the accuracy of the replacement of this concept of satisfaction with maslahah as part of consumer behavior. This is done so that replacement of rejection of the term satisfaction with maslahah is objective. This objective replacement of the term will surely be more enlightening and more just than the subjective substitution. Therefore the writing of this paper aims to get an answer whether the concept of satisfaction needs to be replaced? is it possible for Islamic law to confirm the theory of consumer satisfaction? The method of writing this paper using the method of literature with a critical analysis approach. The results of this study is an explanation of the similarities and differences of consumer satisfaction theory and consumer theory maslahah according to Islamic law. disclosure of the concept of consumer gratitude according to Islamic law and its implementation in Muslim consumer demand theory.

Keywords: consumer's gratitude, islamic law, confirmation, satisfaction consumer's

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Authors: Preeda Sansakorn, Min An

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In order to be capable of dealing with uncertainties, subjectivities, including vagueness arising in building construction projects, the application of fuzzy reasoning technique based on fuzzy set theory is proposed. This study contributes significantly to the development of a fuzzy reasoning safety risk assessment model for building construction projects that could be employed to assess the risk magnitude of each hazardous event identified during construction, and a third parameter of probability of consequence is incorporated in the model. By using the proposed safety risk analysis methodology, more reliable and less ambiguities, which provide the safety risk management project team for decision-making purposes.

Keywords: safety risk assessment, building construction safety, fuzzy reasoning, construction risk assessment model, building construction projects

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Authors: Luis Andrey Fajardo Fajardo

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We are immersed in complex systems. The human brain, the galaxies, the snowflakes are examples of complex systems. An area of interest in Complex systems is the chaos theory. This revolutionary field of science presents different ways of study than determinism and reductionism. Here is where in junction with the Nonlinear DSP, chaos theory offer valuable techniques that establish a link between time series and complex theory in terms of complex networks, so that, the study of signals can be explored from the graph theory. Recently, some people had purposed a method to transform time series in graphs, but no one had developed a suitable implementation in Python with signals extracted from Chaotic Systems or Complex systems. That’s why the implementation in Python of an existing method to transform one dimensional chaotic signals from time domain to graph domain and some measures that may reveal information not extracted in the time domain is proposed.

Keywords: Python, complex systems, graph theory, dynamical systems

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Authors: Dairo Jose Hernandez Paez

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The quantum theory of atoms in molecules (QTAIM) allows us to obtain topological information on electronic density in quantum mechanical systems. The QTAIM starts by considering the electron density as a continuous mathematical object. On the other hand, the discretization of electron density is also a mathematical object, which, from discrete mathematics, would allow a new approach to its topological study. From this point of view, it is necessary to develop a series of steps that provide the theoretical support that guarantees its application. Some of the steps that we consider most important are mentioned below: (1) obtain good representations of the electron density through computational calculations, (2) design a methodology for the discretization of electron density, and construct the simplicial complex. (3) Make an analysis of the discrete vector field associating the simplicial complex. (4) Finally, in this research, we propose to use the discrete Morse theory as a mathematical tool to carry out studies of electron density topology.

Keywords: discrete mathematics, Discrete Morse theory, electronic density, computational calculations

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Authors: Ibrahim M. Metwally

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Have you ever thought that earth was not the same earth we live on? Was it bigger or smaller? Was it a great continent surrounded by huge ocean as Alfred Wegener (1912) claimed? Earth is the most amazing planet in our Milky Way galaxy and may be in the universe. It is the only deformed planet that has a variable orbit around the sun and the only planet that has water on its surface. How did earth deformation take place? What does cause earth to deform? What are the results of earth deformation? How does its orbit around the sun change? First earth size computation can be achieved only considering the quantum of iron and nickel rested into earth core. This paper introduces a new theory “Earth expansion Theory”. The principles of “Earth Expansion Theory” are leading to new approaches and concepts to interpret whole earth dynamics and its geological and environmental changes. This theory is not an attempt to unify the two divergent dominant theories of continental drift, plate tectonic theory and earth expansion theory. The new theory is unique since it has a mathematical derivation, explains all the change to and around earth in terms of geological and environmental changes, and answers all unanswered questions in other theories. This paper presents the basic of the introduced theory and discusses the mechanism of earth expansion and how it took place, the forces that made the expansion. The mechanisms of earth size change from its spherical shape with radius about 3447.6 km to an elliptic shape of major radius about 6378.1 km and minor radius of about 6356.8 km and how it took place, are introduced and discussed. This article also introduces, in a more realistic explanation the formation of oceans and seas, the preparation of river formation. It also addresses the role of iron in earth size enlargement process within the continuum mechanics framework.

Keywords: earth size, earth expansion, continuum mechanics, continental and ocean formation

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Authors: Ibraheem Alzahrani

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This paper seeks to discover the relationship between both the social constructivist learning theory and the collaborative learning environment. This relationship can be identified through given an example of the learning environment. Due to wiki characteristics, wiki can be used to understand the relationship between constructivist learning theory and collaborative learning environment. However, several evidences will come in this paper to support the idea of why wiki is the suitable method to explore the relationship between social constructivist theory and the collaborative learning and their role in learning. Moreover, learning activities in wiki classroom will be discussed in this paper to find out the result of the learners' interaction in the classroom groups, which will be through two types of communication; synchronous and asynchronous.

Keywords: social constructivist, collaborative, environment, wiki, activities

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar Parjapati, Ajai Jain

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This paper presents optimization of makespan for ‘n’ jobs and ‘m’ machines flexible job shop scheduling problem with sequence dependent setup time using genetic algorithm (GA) approach. A restart scheme has also been applied to prevent the premature convergence. Two case studies are taken into consideration. Results are obtained by considering crossover probability (pc = 0.85) and mutation probability (pm = 0.15). Five simulation runs for each case study are taken and minimum value among them is taken as optimal makespan. Results indicate that optimal makespan can be achieved with more than one sequence of jobs in a production order.

Keywords: flexible job shop, genetic algorithm, makespan, sequence dependent setup times

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Authors: Wang Zhiwei, Wang Weiwu

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The process of urbanization in China has entered a critical period of transformation from urban expansion and construction to delicate urban design, thus forming a new direction in the field of urban design. So far, catalyst theory has become a prominent guiding strategy in urban planning and design. In this paper, under the background of urban renewal, catalyst theory is taken as the guiding ideology to explore the method of urban design in shouxian county. Firstly, this study briefly introduces and analyzes the catalyst theory. Through field investigation, it is found that the city has a large number of idle Spaces, such as abandoned factories and schools. In the design, the idle Spaces in the county town are utilized and interlinked in space, and functional interaction is carried out from the pattern of the county town. On the one hand, the results showed that the catalyst theory can enhance the vitality of the linear street space with a small amount of monomer construction. On the other hand, the city can also increase the cultural and economic sites of the city without damaging the historical relics and the sense of alterations of the ancient city, to improve the quality of life and quality of life of citizens. The city micro-transformation represented by catalyst theory can help ancient cities like shouxian to realize the activation of the old city and realize the gradual development.

Keywords: catalytic theory, urban design, China's ancient city, Renaissance

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Authors: M. Marsadek, A. Mohamed

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Power system security analysis is the most time demanding process due to large number of possible contingencies that need to be analyzed.  In a power system, any contingency resulting in security violation such as line overload or low voltage may occur for a number of reasons at any time.  To efficiently rank a contingency, both probability and the extent of security violation must be considered so as not to underestimate the risk associated with the contingency. This paper proposed a contingency ranking method that take into account the probabilistic nature of power system and the severity of contingency by using a newly developed method based on risk factor.  The proposed technique is implemented on IEEE 24-bus system.

Keywords: line overload, low voltage, probability, risk factor, severity

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Authors: Nattabhorn Leamcharaskul

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This study aims to examine determining factors of the dynamics of poverty in Thailand by using panel data of 3,567 households in 2007-2017. Four techniques of estimation are employed to analyze the situation of poverty across households and time periods: the multinomial logit model, the sequential logit model, the quantile regression model, and the difference in difference model. Households are categorized based on their experiences into 5 groups, namely chronically poor, falling into poverty, re-entering into poverty, exiting from poverty and never poor households. Estimation results emphasize the effects of demographic and socioeconomic factors as well as unexpected events on the economic status of a household. It is found that remittances have positive impact on household’s economic status in that they are likely to lower the probability of falling into poverty or trapping in poverty while they tend to increase the probability of exiting from poverty. In addition, not only receiving a secondary source of household income can raise the probability of being a never poor household, but it also significantly increases household income per capita of the chronically poor and falling into poverty households. Public work programs are recommended as an important tool to relieve household financial burden and uncertainty and thus consequently increase a chance for households to escape from poverty.

Keywords: difference in difference, dynamic, multinomial logit model, panel data, poverty, quantile regression, remittance, sequential logit model, Thailand, transfer

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Authors: Daniel Dor

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The research presents a new general theory of language as a socially-constructed communication technology, designed by cultural evolution for a very specific function: the instruction of imagination. As opposed to all the other systems of intentional communication, which provide materials for the interlocutors to experience, language allows speakers to instruct their interlocutors in the process of imagining the intended meaning-instead of experiencing it. It is thus the only system that bridges the experiential gaps between speakers. This is the key to its enormous success.

Keywords: experience, general theory of language, imagination, language as technology, social essence of language

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Authors: Peristera Baziana

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In this paper, we present a network configuration for a WDM LANs of passive star topology that assume that the set of data WDM channels is split into two separate sets of channels, with different access rights over them. Especially, a synchronous transmission WDMA access algorithm is adopted in order to increase the probability of successful transmission over the data channels and consequently to reduce the probability of data packets transmission cancellation in order to avoid the data channels collisions. Thus, a control pre-transmission access scheme is followed over a separate control channel. An analytical Markovian model is studied and the average throughput is mathematically derived. The performance is studied for several numbers of data channels and various values of control phase duration.

Keywords: access algorithm, channels division, collisions avoidance, wavelength division multiplexing

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Authors: Gabriel Calvo, Carmen Armero, Luigi Spezia

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A basketball player is said to have a hot hand if his/her performance is better than expected in different periods of time. A way to deal with this phenomenon is to make use of latent variables, which can indicate whether the player is ‘on fire’ or not. This work aims to model the hot hand phenomenon through a Bayesian hidden Markov model (HMM) with two states (cold and hot) and two different probability of success depending on the corresponding hidden state. This task is illustrated through a comprehensive simulation study. The simulated data sets emulate the field goal attempts in an NBA season from different profile players. This model can be a powerful tool to assess the ‘streakiness’ of each player, and it provides information about the general performance of the players during the match. Finally, the Bayesian HMM allows computing the posterior probability of any type of streak.

Keywords: Bernoulli trials, field goals, latent variables, posterior distribution

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Authors: Nasiri Ahmadullah, Shimozato Tetsuhiro, Masayuki Tai

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This paper presents the step-by-step procedure for using Elastic Theory to calculate the internal stresses in composite bridge girders prestressed by the Preflexing Technology, called Prebeam in Japan and Preflex beam worldwide. Elastic Theory approaches preflex beams the same way as it does the conventional composite girders. Since preflex beam undergoes different stages of construction, calculations are made using different sectional and material properties. Stresses are calculated in every stage using the properties of the specific section. Stress accumulation gives the available stress in a section of interest. Concrete presence in the section implies prestress loss due to creep and shrinkage, however; more work is required to be done in this field. In addition to the graphical presentation of this application, this paper further discusses important notes of graphical comparison between the results of an experimental-only research carried out on a preflex beam, with the results of simulation based on the elastic theory approach, for an identical beam using Finite Element Modeling (FEM) by the author.

Keywords: composite girder, Elastic Theory, preflex beam, prestressing

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Authors: Bualak Naksongkaew

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The purposes of this study were to compare pre- and post-test achievement of Thai language skills. The samples consisted of 40 tenth grader of Secondary Demonstration School of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University in the first semester of the academic year 2010. The researcher prepared the Thai lesson plans, the pre- and post-achievement test at the end program. Data analyses were carried out using means, standard deviations and descriptive statistics, independent samples t-test analysis for comparison pre- and post-test. The study showed that there were a statistically significant difference at α= 0.05; therefore the use multiple intelligences theory can develop Thai languages skills. The results after using the multiple intelligences theory for Thai lessons had higher level than standard.

Keywords: multiple intelligences theory, Thai language skills, development, pre- and post-test achievement

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Authors: Wen-Shan Lin, Shu-Lu Hsu

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Environmental concern and consumer rights have entailed e-tailers to adopt better strategies to facilitate product returns from customers. As the demand for reverse logistics (RL) continues to grow, little is known about what motivates e-tailers to enhance their RL capabilities and about the role RL capabilities plays in enabling e-tailers to achieve better customer satisfaction and economic performance. Based on resource-based theory and institutional theory, this article proposes that the following factors play a critical role in influencing the RL capability of e-tailers: (a) Financial resource commitment to RL, (b) managerial resource commitment to RL, and (c) institutional pressure to implement RL. Based on the role of these factors, the study provides a framework and propositions that serve to guide future research addressing the link among resources, institutional pressure, and RL capability.

Keywords: reverse logistics, e-tailing, resource-based theory, institutional theory

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Authors: A. L. Agarwal, D. A. Mahajan

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Construction industry tumbled along with other industry/sectors during recent economic crash. Construction business could not regain thereafter and still pass through slowdown phase, resulted many real estate as well as infrastructure projects not completed on schedule and within budget. There are many theories, tools, techniques with software packages available in the market to analyze construction schedule. This study focuses on the construction project schedule and uncertainties associated with construction activities. The infrastructure construction project has been considered for the analysis of uncertainty on project activities affecting project duration and analysis is done using @RISK software. Different simulation results arising from three probability distribution functions are compiled to benefit construction project managers to plan more realistic schedule of various construction activities as well as project completion to document in the contract and avoid compensations or claims arising out of missing the planned schedule.

Keywords: construction project, distributions, project schedule, uncertainty

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Authors: Majid Samiee Zonoozian

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For such important constructions as jacket type platforms, scrupulous attention in analysis, design and calculation processes is needed. The reliability assessment method has been established into an extensively used method to behavior safety calculation of jacket platforms. In the present study, a methodology for the reliability calculation of an offshore jacket platform in contradiction of the extreme wave loading state is available. Therefore, sensitivity analyses are applied to acquire the nonlinear response of jacket-type platforms against extreme waves. The jacket structure is modeled by applying a nonlinear finite-element model with regards to the tubular members' behave. The probability of a member’s failure under extreme wave loading is figured by a finite-element reliability code. The FORM and SORM approaches are applied for the calculation of safety directories and reliability indexes have been detected. A case study for a fixed jacket-type structure positioned in the Persian Gulf is studied by means of the planned method. Furthermore, to define the failure standards, equations suggested by the 21st version of the API RP 2A-WSD for The jacket-type structures’ tubular members designing by applying the mixed axial bending and axial pressure. Consequently, the effect of wave Loades in the reliability index was considered.

Keywords: Jacket-Type structure, reliability, failure probability, tubular members

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Authors: Gayatri Ghosh

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In this work, a flavour theory of a neutrino mass model based on A_4 symmetry is considered to explain the phenomenology of neutrino mixing. The spontaneous symmetry breaking of A_4 symmetry in this model leads to tribimaximal mixing in the neutrino sector at a leading order. We consider the effect of Z_2 × Z_2 invariant perturbations in neutrino sector and find the allowed region of correction terms in the perturbation matrix that is consistent with 3σ ranges of the experimental values of the mixing angles. We study the entanglement of this formalism on the other phenomenological observables, such as δ_CP phase, the neutrino oscillation probability P(νµ → νe), the effective Majorana mass |mee| and |meff νe |. A Z_2 × Z_2 invariant perturbations in this model is introduced in the neutrino sector which leads to testable predictions of θ_13 and CP violation. By changing the magnitudes of perturbations in neutrino sector, one can generate viable values of δ_CP and neutrino oscillation parameters. Next we investigate the feasibility of charged lepton flavour violation in type-I seesaw models with leptonic flavour symmetries at high energy that leads to tribimaximal neutrino mixing. We consider an effective theory with an A_4 × Z_2 × Z_2 symmetry, which after spontaneous symmetry breaking at high scale which is much higher than the electroweak scale leads to charged lepton flavour violation processes once the heavy Majorana neutrino mass degeneracy is lifted either by renormalization group effects or by a soft breaking of the A_4 symmetry. In this context the implications for charged lepton flavour violation processes like µ → eγ, τ → eγ, τ → µγ are discussed.

Keywords: Z2 × Z2 invariant perturbations, CLFV, delta CP phase, tribimaximal neutrino mixing

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