Search results for: finite time ruin probability

Authors: Tawanda Mushiri, Charles Mbohwa

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The performance of door assembly is very significant for the vehicle design. In the present paper, the finite element method is used in the development processes of the door assembly. The stiffness, strength, modal characteristic, and anti-extrusion of a newly developed passenger vehicle door assembly are calculated and evaluated by several finite element analysis commercial software. The structural problems discovered by FE analysis have been modified and finally achieved the expected door structure performance target of this new vehicle. The issue in focus is to predict the performance of the door assembly by powerful finite element analysis software, and optimize the structure to meet the design targets. It is observed that this method can be used to forecast the performance of vehicle door efficiently when it’s designed. In order to reduce lead time and cost in the product development of vehicles more development will be made virtually.

Keywords: vehicle door, structure, strength, stiffness, modal characteristic, anti-extrusion, Finite Element Method

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Authors: Sifeddine Abderrahmani, Sonia Bouafia

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The finite element method is the most practical tool for the analysis of structures, whatever the geometrical shape and behavior. It is extensively used in many high-tech industries, such as civil or military engineering, for the modeling of bridges, motor bodies, fuselages, and airplane wings. Additionally, experience demonstrates that engineers like modeling their structures using the most basic finite elements. Numerous models of finite elements may be utilized in the numerical analysis depending on the interpolation field that is selected, and it is generally known that convergence to the proper value will occur considerably more quickly with a good displacement pattern than with a poor pattern, saving computation time. The method for creating finite elements using the strain approach (S.B.A.) is presented in this presentation. When the results are compared with those provided by equivalent displacement-based elements, having the same total number of degrees of freedom, an excellent convergence can be obtained through some application and validation tests using recently developed membrane elements, plate bending elements, and flat shell elements. The effectiveness and performance of the strain-based finite elements in modeling structures are proven by the findings for deflections and stresses.

Keywords: finite elements, plate bending, strain approach, displacement formulation, shell element

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Authors: Donggun Lee, Q-Han Park

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Due to its coarse grid, the Pseudo-Spectral Time Domain (PSTD) method has advantages against the Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) method in terms of memory requirement and operation time. However, since the efficiency of parallelization is much lower than that of FDTD, PSTD is not a useful method for a large-scale electromagnetic simulation in a parallel platform. In this paper, we propose the parallelization technique of the hybrid PSTD-FDTD (HPF) method which simultaneously possesses the efficient parallelizability of FDTD and the quick speed and low memory requirement of PSTD. Parallelization cost of the HPF method is exactly the same as the parallel FDTD, but still, it occupies much less memory space and has faster operation speed than the parallel FDTD. Experiments in distributed memory systems have shown that the parallel HPF method saves up to 96% of the operation time and reduces 84% of the memory requirement. Also, by combining the OpenMP library to the MPI library, we further reduced the operation time of the parallel HPF method by 50%.

Keywords: FDTD, hybrid, MPI, OpenMP, PSTD, parallelization

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Authors: M. Marsadek, A. Mohamed

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Power system security analysis is the most time demanding process due to large number of possible contingencies that need to be analyzed.  In a power system, any contingency resulting in security violation such as line overload or low voltage may occur for a number of reasons at any time.  To efficiently rank a contingency, both probability and the extent of security violation must be considered so as not to underestimate the risk associated with the contingency. This paper proposed a contingency ranking method that take into account the probabilistic nature of power system and the severity of contingency by using a newly developed method based on risk factor.  The proposed technique is implemented on IEEE 24-bus system.

Keywords: line overload, low voltage, probability, risk factor, severity

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Authors: Po-Wen Chen, Jin-Yu Wu, Md. Manirul Ali, Yang Peng, Chen-Te Chang, Der-Jun Jan

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Dynamics of cathode spot has become a major part of vacuum arc discharge with its high academic interest and wide application potential. In this article, using a three-dimensional statistical model, we simulate the distribution of the ignition probability of a new cathode spot occurring in different magnetic pressure on old cathode spot surface and at different arcing time. This model for the ignition probability of a new cathode spot was proposed in two typical situations, one by the pure isotropic random walk in the absence of an external magnetic field, other by the retrograde motion in external magnetic field, in parallel with the cathode surface. We mainly focus on developed relationship between the ignition probability density distribution of a new cathode spot and the external magnetic field.

Keywords: cathode spot, vacuum arc discharge, transverse magnetic field, random walk

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Authors: Carlos Caro, Ernest Bladé, Pedro Acosta, Camilo Lesmes

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The drying-wet process is one of the topics to be more careful in distributed hydrological modeling using finite volume schemes as a means of solving the equations of Saint Venant. In a hydrologic and hydraulic computer model, surface flow phenomena depend mainly on the different flow accumulation and subsequent runoff generation. These accumulations are generated by routing, cell by cell, from the heights of water, which begin to appear due to the rain at each instant of time. Determine when it is considered a dry cell and when considered wet to include in the full calculation is an issue that directly affects the quantification of direct runoff or generation of flow at the end of a zone of contribution by accumulations flow generated from cells or finite volume.

Keywords: hydrology, transport processes, hydrological modelling, finite volume schemes

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Authors: Abdulmajid Mukhtar Afat

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This paper aims at introducing finite automata theory, the different ways to describe regular languages and create a program to implement the subset construction algorithms to convert nondeterministic finite automata (NFA) to deterministic finite automata (DFA). This program is written in c++ programming language. The program reads FA 5tuples from text file and then classifies it into either DFA or NFA. For DFA, the program will read the string w and decide whether it is acceptable or not. If accepted, the program will save the tracking path and point it out. On the other hand, when the automation is NFA, the program will change the Automation to DFA so that it is easy to track and it can decide whether the w exists in the regular language or not.

Keywords: finite automata, subset construction, DFA, NFA

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Authors: Melusi Khumalo, Anastacia Dlamini

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In this paper, we consider a numerical solution for nonlinear Fredholm integral equations of the second kind. We work with uniform mesh and use the Lagrange polynomials together with the Galerkin finite element method, where the weight function is chosen in such a way that it takes the form of the approximate solution but with arbitrary coefficients. We implement the finite element method to the nonlinear Fredholm integral equations of the second kind. We consider the error analysis of the method. Furthermore, we look at a specific example to illustrate the implementation of the finite element method.

Keywords: finite element method, Galerkin approach, Fredholm integral equations, nonlinear integral equations

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Authors: N. Fusun Oyman Serteller

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In this paper, the techniques to solve time dependent electromagnetic wave propagation equations based on the Finite Difference Method (FDM) are proposed by comparing the results with Finite Element Method (FEM) in 2D while discussing some special simulation examples.  Here, 2D dynamical wave equations for lossy media, even with a constant source, are discussed for establishing symbolic manipulation of wave propagation problems. The main objective of this contribution is to introduce a comparative study of two suitable numerical methods and to show that both methods can be applied effectively and efficiently to all types of wave propagation problems, both linear and nonlinear cases, by using symbolic computation. However, the results show that the FDM is more appropriate for solving the nonlinear cases in the symbolic solution. Furthermore, some specific complex domain examples of the comparison of electromagnetic waves equations are considered. Calculations are performed through Mathematica software by making some useful contribution to the programme and leveraging symbolic evaluations of FEM and FDM.

Keywords: finite difference method, finite element method, linear-nonlinear PDEs, symbolic computation, wave propagation equations

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Authors: A. B. Bolkhir, A. Elshafie, T. K. Yousif

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This paper highlights the methods of error estimation in finite element analysis (FEA) results. It indicates that the modeling error could be eliminated by performing finite element analysis with successively finer meshes or by extrapolating response predictions from an orderly sequence of relatively low degree of freedom analysis results. In addition, the paper eliminates the round-off error by running the code at a higher precision. The paper provides application in finite element analysis results. It draws a conclusion based on results of application of methods of error estimation.

Keywords: finite element analysis (FEA), discretization error, round-off error, mesh refinement, richardson extrapolation, monotonic convergence

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Authors: Yang Cao

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Analyzing the oral production of Chinese-speaking learners of English as a second language (L2), we can find a large variety of verb inflections – Why does it seem so hard for them to use consistent correct past morphologies in obligatory past contexts? Failed Functional Features Hypothesis (FFFH) attributes the rather non-target-like performance to the absence of [±past] feature in their L1 Chinese, arguing that for post puberty learners, new features in L2 are no more accessible. By contrast, Missing Surface Inflection Hypothesis (MSIH) tends to believe that all features are actually acquirable for late L2 learners, while due to the mapping difficulties from features to forms, it is hard for them to realize the consistent past morphologies on the surface. However, most of the studies are limited to the verb morphologies in finite clauses and few studies have ever attempted to figure out these learners’ performance in non-finite clauses. Additionally, it has been discussed that Chinese learners may be able to tell the finite/infinite distinction (i.e. the [±finite] feature might be selected in Chinese, even though the existence of [±past] is denied). Therefore, adopting a self-paced reading task (SPR), the current study aims to analyze the processing patterns of Chinese-speaking learners of L2 Russian, in order to find out if they are sensitive to misuse of tense morphologies in both finite and non-finite clauses and whether they are sensitive to the finite/infinite distinction presented in Russian. The study targets L2 Russian due to its systematic morphologies in both present and past tenses. A native Russian group, as well as a group of English-speaking learners of Russian, whose L1 has definitely selected both [±finite] and [±past] features, will also be involved. By comparing and contrasting performance of the three language groups, the study is going to further examine and discuss the two theories, FFFH and MSIH. Preliminary hypotheses are: a) Russian native speakers are expected to spend longer time reading the verb forms which violate the grammar; b) it is expected that Chinese participants are, at least, sensitive to the misuse of inflected verbs in non-finite clauses, although no sensitivity to the misuse of infinitives in finite clauses might be found. Therefore, an interaction of finite and grammaticality is expected to be found, which indicate that these learners are able to tell the finite/infinite distinction; and c) having selected [±finite] and [±past], English-speaking learners of Russian are expected to behave target-likely, supporting L1 transfer.

Keywords: features, finite clauses, morphosyntax, non-finite clauses, past morphologies, present morphologies, Second Language Acquisition, self-paced reading task, verb inflections

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Authors: Jerry Hu

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Let G = (V, E) with V = {1, 2, ..., k} be a graph, the k positive integers a₁, a₂, ..., ak are G-wise relatively prime if (aᵢ, aⱼ ) = 1 for {i, j} ∈ E. We use an inductive approach to give an asymptotic formula for the number of k-tuples of integers that are G-wise relatively prime. An exact formula is obtained for the probability that k positive integers are G-wise relatively prime. As a corollary, we also provide an exact formula for the probability that k positive integers have exactly r relatively prime pairs.

Keywords: graph, independent set, G-wise relatively prime, probability

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Authors: Ibtisam Masmali, Edwin Beggs

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In this paper, we take example of differential calculi, on the finite group A4. Then, we apply methods of non-commutative of non-commutative differential geometry to this example, and see how similar the results are to those of classical differential geometry.

Keywords: differential calculi, finite group A4, Christoffel symbols, covariant derivative, torsion compatible

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Authors: M. Ezati Kooshki , H. Pourmohamad

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Leaf spring dampers are used for commercial vehicles and heavy tracks. The main function of this damper in these vehicles is protection against damage and providing comfort for drivers by creating suspension between road and vehicle. This paper presents a new device, circular leaf spring damper, which is frequently used on vehicles, aiming to gain seismic protection of structures. Finite element analyses were conducted on several one-story structures using finite element software (Abaqus, v6.10-1). The time history analysis was conducted on the records of Kobe (1995) and San Fernando (1971) ground motions to demonstrate the advantages of using leaf spring in structures as compared to simple bracing system. This paper also suggests extending the use of this damper in structures, considering its large control force despite high cycle fatigue properties and low prices.

Keywords: bracing system, finite element analysis, leaf spring, seismic protection, time history analysis

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Authors: Ying Yi Wu

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The study of finite groups is a central topic in algebraic structures, and one of the most fundamental questions in this field is the classification of finite groups up to isomorphism. In this paper, we investigate the cyclic property of groups of prime order, which is a crucial result in the classification of finite abelian groups. We prove the following statement: If p is a prime, then every group G of order p is cyclic. Our proof utilizes the properties of group actions and the class equation, which provide a powerful tool for studying the structure of finite groups. In particular, we first show that any non-identity element of G generates a cyclic subgroup of G. Then, we establish the existence of an element of order p, which implies that G is generated by a single element. Finally, we demonstrate that any two generators of G are conjugate, which shows that G is a cyclic group. Our result has significant implications in the classification of finite groups, as it implies that any group of prime order is isomorphic to the cyclic group of the same order. Moreover, it provides a useful tool for understanding the structure of more complicated finite groups, as any finite abelian group can be decomposed into a direct product of cyclic groups. Our proof technique can also be extended to other areas of group theory, such as the classification of finite p-groups, where p is a prime. Therefore, our work has implications beyond the specific result we prove and can contribute to further research in algebraic structures.

Keywords: group theory, finite groups, cyclic groups, prime order, classification.

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Authors: Bahareh Zare

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The theory of the investment model of dating infidelity maintains that loyalty is an essential power within romantic relationships. Loyalty signifies both motivation and psychological attachment to maintain a relationship. This study examined the relationship between the Big Five Personality Factors (Extraversion, Neuroticism, Openness, Conscientiousness, and Agreeableness), probability of marital infidelity, and risk of divorce. The participants completed NEO-FFI, INFQ (infidelity questionnaire) and were interviewed by OHI (Oral History Interview). The results demonstrated that extraversion and agreeableness traits were significant predictors for the probability of infidelity and risk of divorce. In addition, conscientiousness predicted the probability of infidelity, while neuroticism predicted the risk of divorce.

Keywords: five factors personality, infidelity, risk of divorce, investment theory

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Authors: Mahmoudi Noureddine, Bouregba Rachid

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In this paper the stress intensity factors of a slant-cracked plate of AISI 304 stainless steel, have been calculated using extended finite element method and finite element method (FEM) in ABAQUS software, the results were compared with theoretical values.

Keywords: stress intensity factors, extended finite element method, stainless steel, abaqus

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Authors: Kamaljit Pati, Manas Kumar Mohanty, Sanjib Sadhu

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A heuristic has been designed to generate a random simple monotone polygon from a given set of ‘n’ points lying on a 2-Dimensional plane. Our heuristic generates a random monotone polygon in O(n) time after O(nℓogn) preprocessing time which is improved over the previous work where a random monotone polygon is produced in the same O(n) time but the preprocessing time is O(k) for n < k < n2. However, our heuristic does not generate all possible random polygons with uniform probability. The space complexity of our proposed heuristic is O(n).

Keywords: sorting, monotone polygon, visibility, chain

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Akhavan Khaleghi

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This paper shows changes done to the Reduced Finite Element Method (RFEM) that its result will be the most powerful numerical method that has been proposed so far (some forms of this method are so powerful that they can approximate the most complex equations simply Laplace equation!). Finite Element Method (FEM) is a powerful numerical method that has been used successfully for the solution of the existing problems in various scientific and engineering fields such as its application in CFD. Many algorithms have been expressed based on FEM, but none have been used in popular CFD software. In this section, full monopoly is according to Finite Volume Method (FVM) due to better efficiency and adaptability with the physics of problems in comparison with FEM. It doesn't seem that FEM could compete with FVM unless it was fundamentally changed. This paper shows those changes and its result will be a powerful method that has much better performance in all subjects in comparison with FVM and another computational method. This method is not to compete with the finite volume method but to replace it.

Keywords: reduced finite element method, new computational package, new finite element formulation, new higher-order form, new isogeometric analysis

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Authors: Rafik Ouared

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The purpose of this paper is to invalidate decisions made by the Islamic conference led at Istanbul in 2016, which had defined two basic criteria to determine the start of the lunar month: (1)they are all based on the sighting of the crescent, be it observed or computed with modern methods, and (2) they've strongly recommended the adoption of the principle of 'unification of sighting', by which any occurrence of sighting anywhere would be applicable everywhere. To demonstrate the invalidation of those statements, a survey of 101 years of data, from 1938 to 2038, have been analyzed to compare the probability density function (PDF) of time difference between different types of fajr and new moon. Two groups of fajr have been considered: the 'natural fajr', which is the very first fajr following new moon, and the 'biased fajr', which is defined by human being inclusively of all chosen definitions. The parametric and non-parametric statistical comparisons between the different groups have shown the all the biased PDFs are significantly different from the unbiased (natural) PDF with probability value (p-value) less than 0.001. The significance level was fixed to 0.05. Conclusion: the on-going reference to sighting of crescent is inducing an significant bias in defining lunar calendar. Therefore, 'natural' calendar would be more applicable requiring a more contextualized revision of issue in fiqh.

Keywords: biased fajr, lunar calendar, natural fajr, probability density function, sighting of crescent, time difference between fajr and new moon

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

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The fatigue crack growth is stochastic because of the fatigue behavior having an uncertainty and a randomness. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the probability distribution of a grown crack size at a specific fatigue crack propagation life for maintenance of structure as well as reliability estimation. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the grown crack size at a specified fatigue life in a rolled magnesium alloy under different specimen thickness conditions. Fatigue crack propagation experiments are carried out in laboratory air under three conditions of specimen thickness using AZ31 to investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior. The goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of a grown crack size under different specimen thickness conditions is performed by Anderson-Darling test. The effect of a specimen thickness on variability of a grown crack size is also investigated.

Keywords: crack size, fatigue crack propagation, magnesium alloys, probability distribution, specimen thickness

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Authors: Cesar Vazquez-Gonzalez, Sophie Avila-Foucat, Leonardo Ortiz-Lozano, Patricia Moreno-Casasola, Alejandro Granados-Barba

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In the last twenty years, academic and scientific literature has been focused on understanding the processes and factors of coastal social-ecological systems vulnerability and resilience. Some scholars argue that resilience and vulnerability are isolated concepts due to their epistemological origin, while others note the existence of a strong resilience-vulnerability relationship. Here we present an ordinal logistic regression model based on the analytical framework about dynamic resilience-vulnerability interaction along adaptive cycle of complex systems and disasters process phases (during, recovery and learning). In this way, we demonstrate that 1) during the disturbance, absorptive capacity (resilience as a core of attributes) and external response capacity explain the probability of households capitals to diminish the damage, and exposure sets the thresholds about the amount of disturbance that households can absorb, 2) at recovery, absorptive capacity and external response capacity explain the probability of households capitals to recovery faster (resilience as an outcome) from damage, and 3) at learning, adaptive capacity (resilience as a core of attributes) explains the probability of households adaptation measures based on the enhancement of physical capital. As a result, during the disturbance phase, exposure has the greatest weight in the probability of capital’s damage, and households with absorptive and external response capacity elements absorbed the impact of floods in comparison with households without these elements. At the recovery phase, households with absorptive and external response capacity showed a faster recovery on their capital; however, the damage sets the thresholds of recovery time. More importantly, diversity in financial capital increases the probability of recovering other capital, but it becomes a liability so that the probability of recovering the household finances in a longer time increases. At learning-reorganizing phase, adaptation (modifications to the house) increases the probability of having less damage on physical capital; however, it is not very relevant. As conclusion, resilience is an outcome but also core of attributes that interacts with vulnerability along the adaptive cycle and disaster process phases. Absorptive capacity can diminish the damage experienced by floods; however, when exposure overcomes thresholds, both absorptive and external response capacity are not enough. In the same way, absorptive and external response capacity diminish the recovery time of capital, but the damage sets the thresholds in where households are not capable of recovering their capital.

Keywords: absorptive capacity, adaptive capacity, capital, floods, recovery-learning, social-ecological systems

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Authors: Chun-Qing Li, Guoyang Fu, Wei Yang

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A significant portion of current water networks is made of cast iron pipes. Due to aging and deterioration with corrosion being the most predominant mechanism, the failure rate of cast iron pipes is very high. Although considerable research has been carried out in the past few decades, most are on the effect of corrosion on the structural capacity of pipes using strength theory as the failure criterion. This paper presents a reliability-based methodology for the assessment of corrosion affected cast iron pipe cracking failures. A nonlinear limit state function taking into account all three fracture modes is proposed for brittle metal pipes with mixed mode fracture. A stochastic model of the load effect is developed, and time-dependent reliability method is employed to quantify the probability of failure and predict the remaining service life. A case study is carried out using the proposed methodology, followed by sensitivity analysis to investigate the effects of the random variables on the probability of failure. It has been found that the larger the inclination angle or the Mode I fracture toughness is, the smaller the probability of pipe failure is. It has also been found that the multiplying and exponential coefficients k and n in the power law corrosion model and the internal pressure have the most influence on the probability of failure for cast iron pipes. The methodology presented in this paper can assist pipe engineers and asset managers in developing a risk-informed and cost-effective strategy for better management of corrosion-affected pipelines.

Keywords: corrosion, inclined surface cracks, pressurized cast iron pipes, stress intensity

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Authors: Momoh Omeiza Sheidu

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Finite element method as a method of providing solutions to problems in computational bio mechanics provides a framework for modeling the function of tissues that integrates structurally from cell to organ system and functionally across the physiological processes that affect tissue mechanics or are regulated by mechanical forces. In this paper, we present an integrative finite element strategy for solution to problems in tissue bio mechanics as a case study.

Keywords: finite element, biomechanics, modeling, computational biomechanics

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Authors: Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar, Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain

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Storm Event Analysis (SEA) provides a method to define rainfalls events as storms where each storm has its own amount and duration. By modelling daily probability of different types of storms, the onset, offset and cycle of rainfall seasons can be determined and investigated. Furthermore, researchers from the field of meteorology will be able to study the dynamical characteristics of rainfalls and make predictions for future reference. In this study, four categories of storms; short, intermediate, long and very long storms; are introduced based on the length of storm duration. Daily probability models of storms are built for these four categories of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The models are constructed by using Bernoulli distribution and by applying linear regression on the first Fourier harmonic equation. From the models obtained, it is found that daily probability of storms at the Eastern part of Peninsular Malaysia shows a unimodal pattern with high probability of rain beginning at the end of the year and lasting until early the next year. This is very likely due to the Northeast monsoon season which occurs from November to March every year. Meanwhile, short and intermediate storms at other regions of Peninsular Malaysia experience a bimodal cycle due to the two inter-monsoon seasons. Overall, these models indicate that Peninsular Malaysia can be divided into four distinct regions based on the daily pattern for the probability of various storm events.

Keywords: daily probability model, monsoon seasons, regions, storm events

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Authors: Chin-Chia Jane

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In a transportation network, travel time refers to the transmission time from source node to destination node, whereas reliability refers to the probability of a successful connection from source node to destination node. With an increasing emphasis on quality of service (QoS), both performance indexes are significant in the design and analysis of transportation systems. In this work, we extend the well-known flow network model for transportation networks so that travel time and reliability are integrated into the QoS measurement simultaneously. In the extended model, in addition to the general arc capacities, each intermediate node has a time weight which is the travel time for per unit of commodity going through the node. Meanwhile, arcs and nodes are treated as binary random variables that switch between operation and failure with associated probabilities. For pre-specified travel time limitation and demand requirement, the QoS of a transportation network is the probability that source can successfully transport the demand requirement to destination while the total transmission time is under the travel time limitation. This work is pioneering, since existing literatures that evaluate travel time reliability via a single optimization path, the proposed QoS focuses the performance of the whole network system. To compute the QoS of transportation networks, we first transfer the extended network model into an equivalent min-cost max-flow network model. In the transferred network, each arc has a new travel time weight which takes value 0. Each intermediate node is replaced by two nodes u and v, and an arc directed from u to v. The newly generated nodes u and v are perfect nodes. The new direct arc has three weights: travel time, capacity, and operation probability. Then the universal set of state vectors is recursively decomposed into disjoint subsets of reliable, unreliable, and stochastic vectors until no stochastic vector is left. The decomposition is made possible by applying existing efficient min-cost max-flow algorithm. Because the reliable subsets are disjoint, QoS can be obtained directly by summing the probabilities of these reliable subsets. Computational experiments are conducted on a benchmark network which has 11 nodes and 21 arcs. Five travel time limitations and five demand requirements are set to compute the QoS value. To make a comparison, we test the exhaustive complete enumeration method. Computational results reveal the proposed algorithm is much more efficient than the complete enumeration method. In this work, a transportation network is analyzed by an extended flow network model where each arc has a fixed capacity, each intermediate node has a time weight, and both arcs and nodes are independent binary random variables. The quality of service of the transportation network is an integration of customer demands, travel time, and the probability of connection. We present a decomposition algorithm to compute the QoS efficiently. Computational experiments conducted on a prototype network show that the proposed algorithm is superior to existing complete enumeration methods.

Keywords: quality of service, reliability, transportation network, travel time

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Authors: Oh Hyeon Jeon, WooYoung Jung

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In this study, seepage analysis was performed by the level difference between upstream and downstream of weir structure for safety evaluation of weir structure against flooding. Monte Carlo Simulation method was employed by considering the probability distribution of the adjacent ground parameter, i.e., permeability coefficient of weir structure. Moreover, by using a commercially available finite element program (ABAQUS), modeling of the weir structure is carried out. Based on this model, the characteristic of water seepage during flooding was determined at each water level with consideration of the uncertainty of their corresponding permeability coefficient. Subsequently, fragility function could be constructed based on this response from numerical analysis; this fragility function results could be used to determine the weakness of weir structure subjected to flooding disaster. They can also be used as a reference data that can comprehensively predict the probability of failur,e and the degree of damage of a weir structure.

Keywords: weir structure, seepage, flood disaster fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, Monte-Carlo simulation, permeability coefficient

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Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

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From a theoretical point of view, the relationship between the risk associated with an investment and the expected value are directly proportional, in the sense that the market allows a greater result to those who are willing to take a greater risk. However, empirical evidence proves that this relationship is distorted in the minds of investors and is perceived exactly the opposite. To deepen and understand the discrepancy between the actual actions of the investor and the theoretical predictions, this paper analyzes the essential parameters used for the valuation of financial assets with greater attention to two elements: probability and the passage of time. Although these may seem at first glance to be two distinct elements, they are closely related. In particular, the error in the theoretical description of the relationship between risk and return lies in the failure to consider the impatience that is generated in the decision-maker when events that have not yet happened occur in the decision-making context. In this context, probability loses its objective meaning and in relation to the psychological aspects of the investor, it can only be understood as the degree of confidence that the investor has in the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event. Moreover, the concept of objective probability does not consider the inter-temporality that characterizes financial activities and does not consider the condition of limited cognitive capacity of the decision maker. Cognitive psychology has made it possible to understand that the mind acts with a compromise between quality and effort when faced with very complex choices. To evaluate an event that has not yet happened, it is necessary to imagine that it happens in your head. This projection into the future requires a cognitive effort and is what differentiates choices under conditions of risk and choices under conditions of uncertainty. In fact, since the receipt of the outcome in choices under risk conditions is imminent, the mechanism of self-projection into the future is not necessary to imagine the consequence of the choice and the decision makers dwell on the objective analysis of possibilities. Financial activities, on the other hand, develop over time and the objective probability is too static to consider the anticipatory emotions that the self-projection mechanism generates in the investor. Assuming that uncertainty is inherent in valuations of events that have not yet occurred, the focus must shift from risk management to uncertainty management. Only in this way the intertemporal dimension of the decision-making environment and the haste generated by the financial market can be cautioned and considered. The work considers an extension of the prospectus theory with the temporal component with the aim of providing a description of the attitude towards risk with respect to the passage of time.

Keywords: impatience, risk aversion, subjective probability, uncertainty

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Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

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Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation, and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet, and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria, namely, the mean absolute error and root mean square error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data is used to train the models. The results of this study show that the SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts, we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hours ahead of electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, load forecast, SARIMA, TensorFlow probability, time series

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Authors: Rossana Mancini

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The charm of a ruin colonised by wild plants and flowers is part of Western culture. The relationship between ruins and vegetation involves a wide range of different fields of research. During the first phase of the research the most important writings and projects about this argument were investigated, to understand how the perception of the co-existence of ruins and vegetation has changed over time and to investigate the various different approaches that these different fields have adopted when tackling this issue. The paper presents some practical examples of projects carried out from the early 1900s on. The major result is that specifically regards conservation, the best attitude is the management of change, an inevitable process when it comes to the co-existence of ruins and nature and, particularly, ruins and vegetation. Limiting ourselves to adopting measures designed to stop, or rather slow down, the increasing level of entropy (and therefore disorder) may not be enough.

Keywords: ruins, vegetation, conservation, archaeology, architecture

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