Search results for: extreme ultraviolet
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1067

Search results for: extreme ultraviolet

1067 Active Space Debris Removal by Extreme Ultraviolet Radiation

Authors: A. Anandha Selvan, B. Malarvizhi

Abstract:

In recent year the problem of space debris have become very serious. The mass of the artificial objects in orbit increased quite steadily at the rate of about 145 metric tons annually, leading to a total tally of approximately 7000 metric tons. Now most of space debris object orbiting in LEO region about 97%. The catastrophic collision can be mostly occurred in LEO region, where this collision generate the new debris. Thus, we propose a concept for cleaning the space debris in the region of thermosphere by passing the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) radiation to in front of space debris object from the re-orbiter. So in our concept the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) radiation will create the thermosphere expansion by reacting with atmospheric gas particles. So the drag is produced in front of the space debris object by thermosphere expansion. This drag force is high enough to slow down the space debris object’s relative velocity. Therefore the space debris object gradually reducing the altitude and finally enter into the earth’s atmosphere. After the first target is removed, the re-orbiter can be goes into next target. This method remove the space debris object without catching debris object. Thus it can be applied to a wide range of debris object without regard to their shapes or rotation. This paper discusses the operation of re-orbiter for removing the space debris in thermosphere region.

Keywords: active space debris removal, space debris, LEO, extreme ultraviolet, re-orbiter, thermosphere

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1066 Reflector Arrangement Effect on Ultraviolet Lamp Performance by CFX Simulation

Authors: William Sidharta, Chin-Tu Lu

Abstract:

Fluorescent ultraviolet lamp generates ultraviolet light which is commonly used in industrial field with certain purposes especially for curing process. Due to the value of inefficiency, there are changes in energy from electrical energy to the heat energy and this would make a defect on the industrial product caused by high temperature of lamp tube during ultraviolet light emission. The condition of industrial scale is further worsening, since commonly using dozens of fluorescent ultraviolet lamps to support huge production process and then it will generates much more heat energy. The maximum temperature of fluorescent ultraviolet lamp will get affected by arranging the lamp tube reflector and this study presents CFX simulation results of the maximum lamp tube temperature with some different reflector arrangements on purely natural convection phenomena. There exists certain spaces value of the reflector and the lamp tube to obtaining lower maximum temperature of the fluorescent ultraviolet lamp.

Keywords: CFX simulation, fluorescent UV lamp, lamp tube reflector, UV light

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1065 An Extension of the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution

Authors: Serge Provost, Abdous Saboor

Abstract:

A q-analogue of the generalized extreme value distribution which includes the Gumbel distribution is introduced. The additional parameter q allows for increased modeling flexibility. The resulting distribution can have a finite, semi-infinite or infinite support. It can also produce several types of hazard rate functions. The model parameters are determined by making use of the method of maximum likelihood. It will be shown that it compares favourably to three related distributions in connection with the modeling of a certain hydrological data set.

Keywords: extreme value theory, generalized extreme value distribution, goodness-of-fit statistics, Gumbel distribution

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1064 Influence of Precipitation and Land Use on Extreme Flow in Prek Thnot River Basin of Mekong River in Cambodia

Authors: Chhordaneath Hen, Ty Sok, Ilan Ich, Ratboren Chan, Chantha Oeurng

Abstract:

The damages caused by hydrological extremes such as flooding have been severe globally, and several research studies indicated extreme precipitations play a crucial role. Cambodia is one of the most vulnerable countries exposed to floods and drought as consequences of climate impact. Prek Thnot River Basin in the southwest part of Cambodia, which is in the plate and plateau region and a part of the Mekong Delta, was selected to investigate the changes in extreme precipitation and hydrological extreme. Furthermore, to develop a statistical relationship between these phenomena in this basin from 1995 to 2020 using Multiple Linear Regression. The precipitation and hydrological extreme were assessed via the attributes and trends of rainfall patterns during the study periods. The extreme flow was defined as a dependent variable, while the independent variables are various extreme precipitation indices. The study showed that all extreme precipitations indices (R10, R20, R35, CWD, R95p, R99p, and PRCPTOT) had increasing decency. However, the number of rain days per year had a decreasing tendency, which can conclude that extreme rainfall was more intense in a shorter period of the year. The study showed a similar relationship between extreme precipitation and hydrological extreme and land use change association with hydrological extreme. The direct combination of land use and precipitation equals 37% of the flood causes in this river. This study provided information on these two causes of flood events and an understanding of expectations of climate change consequences for flood and water resources management.

Keywords: extreme precipitation, hydrological extreme, land use, land cover, Prek Thnot river basin

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1063 Estimating The Population Mean by Using Stratified Double Extreme Ranked Set Sample

Authors: Mahmoud I. Syam, Kamarulzaman Ibrahim, Amer I. Al-Omari

Abstract:

Stratified double extreme ranked set sampling (SDERSS) method is introduced and considered for estimating the population mean. The SDERSS is compared with the simple random sampling (SRS), stratified ranked set sampling (SRSS) and stratified simple set sampling (SSRS). It is shown that the SDERSS estimator is an unbiased of the population mean and more efficient than the estimators using SRS, SRSS and SSRS when the underlying distribution of the variable of interest is symmetric or asymmetric.

Keywords: double extreme ranked set sampling, extreme ranked set sampling, ranked set sampling, stratified double extreme ranked set sampling

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1062 UV Resistibility of a Carbon Nanofiber Reinforced Polymer Composite

Authors: A. Evcin, N. Çiçek Bezir, R. Duman, N. Duman

Abstract:

Nowadays, a great concern is placed on the harmfulness of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) which attacks human bodies. Nanocarbon materials, such as carbon nanotubes (CNTs), carbon nanofibers (CNFs) and graphene, have been considered promising alternatives to shielding materials because of their excellent electrical conductivities, very high surface areas and low densities. In the present work, carbon nanofibers have been synthesized from solutions of Polyacrylonitrile (PAN)/ N,N-dimethylformamide (DMF) by electrospinning method. The carbon nanofibers have been stabilized by oxidation at 250 °C for 2 h in air and carbonized at 750 °C for 1 h in H2/N2. We present the fabrication and characterization of transparent and ultraviolet (UV) shielding CNF/polymer composites. The content of CNF filler has been varied from 0.2% to 0.6 % by weight. UV Spectroscopy has been performed to study the effect of composition on the transmittance of polymer composites.

Keywords: electrospinning, carbon nanofiber, characterization, composites, nanofiber, ultraviolet radiation

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1061 Chromosomal Damage in Human Lymphocytes by Ultraviolet Radiation

Authors: Felipe Osorio Ospina, Maria Adelaida Mejia Arango, Esteban Onésimo Vallejo Agudelo, Victoria Lucía Dávila Osorio, Natalia Vargas Grisales, Lina María Martínez Sanchez, Camilo Andrés Agudelo Vélez, Ángela Maria Londoño García, Isabel Cristina Ortiz Trujillo

Abstract:

Excessive exposure to ultraviolet radiation, has shown to be a risk factor for photodamage, alteration of the immune mechanisms to recognize malignant cells and cutaneous pro-inflamatorios States and skin cancers. Objective: Identify the time of exposure to ultraviolet radiation for the production of chromosomal damage in human lymphocytes. Methodology: We conducted an in vitro study serial, in which samples were taken from heparinized blood of healthy people, who do not submit exposure to agents that could induce chromosomal alterations. The samples were cultured in RPMI-1640 medium containing 10% fetal bovine serum, penicillin and streptomycin antibiotic. Subsequently, they were grouped and exposed to ultraviolet light for 1 to 20 seconds. At the end of the treatments, cytology samples were prepared, and it was colored with Giemsa (5%). Reading was carried out in an optical microscope and 100 metaphases analysed by treatment for posting chromosomal alterations. Each treatment was conducted at three separate times and each became two replicas. Results: We only presented chromosomal alterations in lymphocytes exposed to UV for a groups 1 to 3 seconds (p<0.05). Conclusions: Exposure to ultraviolet radiation generates visible damage in chromosomes from human lymphocytes observed in light microscopy, the highest rates of injury was observed between two and three seconds, and above this value, the reduction in the number of mitotic cells was evident.

Keywords: ultraviolet rays, lymphocytes, chromosome breakpoints, photodamage

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1060 Ultraviolet Radiation and Chromosomal Damage in Human Lymphocytes

Authors: Felipe Osorio Ospina, Maria Adelaida Mejia Arango, Esteban Onésimo Vallejo Agudelo, Victoria Lucía Dávila Osorio, Natalia Vargas Grisales, Lina María Martínez Sanchez, Camilo Andrés Agudelo Vélez, Ángela Maria Londoño García, Isabel Cristina Ortiz Trujillo

Abstract:

Excessive exposure to ultraviolet radiation, has shown to be a risk factor for photodamage, alteration of the immune mechanisms to recognize malignant cells and cutaneous pro-inflamatorios states and skin cancers. Objective: To identify the time of exposure to ultraviolet radiation for the production of chromosomal damage in human lymphocytes. Methodology: We conducted an in vitro study serial, in which samples were taken from the heparinized blood of healthy people, who do not submit exposure to agents that could induce chromosomal alterations. The samples were cultured in RPMI-1640 medium containing 10% fetal bovine serum, penicillin, and streptomycin antibiotic. Subsequently, they were grouped and exposed to ultraviolet light for 1 to 20 seconds. At the end of the treatments, cytology samples were prepared, and it was colored with Giemsa (5%). Reading was carried out in an optical microscope and 100 metaphases analysed by treatment for posting chromosomal alterations. Each treatment was conducted at three separate times and each became two replicas. Results: We only presented chromosomal alterations in lymphocytes exposed to UV for groups 1 to 3 seconds (p < 0.05). Conclusions: Exposure to ultraviolet radiation generates visible damage in chromosomes from human lymphocytes observed in light microscopy, the highest rates of injury was observed between two and three seconds, and above this value, the reduction in the number of mitotic cells was evident.

Keywords: chromosome breakpoints, lymphocytes, photodamage, ultraviolet rays

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1059 Orthogonal Basis Extreme Learning Algorithm and Function Approximation

Authors: Ying Li, Yan Li

Abstract:

A new algorithm for single hidden layer feedforward neural networks (SLFN), Orthogonal Basis Extreme Learning (OBEL) algorithm, is proposed and the algorithm derivation is given in the paper. The algorithm can decide both the NNs parameters and the neuron number of hidden layer(s) during training while providing extreme fast learning speed. It will provide a practical way to develop NNs. The simulation results of function approximation showed that the algorithm is effective and feasible with good accuracy and adaptability.

Keywords: neural network, orthogonal basis extreme learning, function approximation

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1058 Climate Change and Extreme Weather: Understanding Interconnections and Implications

Authors: Johnstone Walubengo Wangusi

Abstract:

Climate change is undeniably altering the frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution of extreme weather events worldwide. In this paper, we explore the complex interconnections between climate change and extreme weather phenomena, drawing upon research from atmospheric science, geology, and climatology. We examine the underlying mechanisms driving these changes, the impacts on natural ecosystems and human societies, and strategies for adaptation and mitigation. By synthesizing insights from interdisciplinary research, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the multifaceted relationship between climate change and extreme weather, informing efforts to address the challenges posed by a changing climate.

Keywords: climate change, extreme weather, atmospheric science, geology, climatology, impacts, adaptation, mitigation

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1057 Ectoine: A Compatible Solute in Radio-Halophilic Stenotrophomonas sp. WMA-LM19 Strain to Prevent Ultraviolet-Induced Protein Damage

Authors: Wasim Sajjad, Manzoor Ahmad, Sundas Qadir, Muhammad Rafiq, Fariha Hasan, Richard Tehan, Kerry L. McPhail, Aamer Ali Shah

Abstract:

Aim: This study aims to investigate the possible radiation protective role of a compatible solute in the tolerance of radio-halophilic bacterium against stresses, like desiccation and exposure to ionizing radiation. Methods and Results: Nine different radio-resistant bacteria were isolated from desert soil, where strain WMA-LM19 was chosen for detailed studies on the basis of its high tolerance for ultraviolet radiation among all these isolates. 16S rRNA gene sequencing indicated that the bacterium was closely related to Stenotrophomonas sp. (KT008383). A bacterial milking strategy was applied for extraction of intracellular compatible solutes in 70% (v/v) ethanol, which were purified by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The compound was characterized as ectoine by 1H and 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), and mass spectrometry (MS). Ectoine demonstrated more efficient preventive activity (54.80%) to erythrocyte membranes and also inhibited oxidative damage to proteins and lipids in comparison to the standard ascorbic acid. Furthermore, a high level of ectoine-mediated protection of bovine serum albumin against ionizing radiation (1500-2000 Jm-2) was observed, as indicated by sodium dodecyl sulfate polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE) analysis. Conclusion: The results indicated that ectoine can be used as a potential mitigator and radio-protective agent to overcome radiation- and salinity-mediated oxidative damage in extreme environments. Significance and Impact of the Study: This study shows that ectoine from radio-halophiles can be used as a potential source in topical creams as sunscreen. The investigation of ectoine as UV protectant also changes the prospective that radiation resistance is specific only to molecular adaptation.

Keywords: ectoine, anti-oxidant, stenotrophomonas sp., ultraviolet radiation

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1056 Sunglasses Frame: UV Protection beyond Lens Spectroscopy

Authors: Augusto P. Andrade, Pedro L. Guedes, Pedro T. Da Silva, Liliane Ventura

Abstract:

The present study evaluates the contribution of sunglasses frames as additional eye safety for ultraviolet backscatter light. Current sunglasses standards establish safe limits regarding lens transmittance in the 280 nm to 380 nm range. However, frames are additionally relevant in protecting the eyes from ultraviolet exposure. This study involves the use of a prototype that simulates backscattered light environments and quantifies the contribution of the frame as a function of the light that reaches the eye when wearing sunglasses. The prototype consists of an LED illuminated sphere, a mannequin head with optical sensors, and baseline and measurements are performed. A set of 29 samples was tested, and results show the variation of light blocking presented by different types of frames, ranging from 68% to 80%. This is still ongoing research. Prototype improvements for allowing albedo simulation, as well as the six types of sky simulation, are being implemented to show the intensity of UV light reaching the eye for several environments worldwide.

Keywords: sunglasses standards, sunglasses frame, ultraviolet protection, albedo

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1055 Characterization of Iron Doped Titanium Dioxide Nanoparticles and Its Photocatalytic Degradation Ability for Congo Red Dye

Authors: Vishakha Parihar

Abstract:

This study reports the preparation of iron metal-doped nanoparticles of Titanium dioxide by the sol-gel process and the photocatalytic degradation of dye. Nano-particles were characterized by SEM, EDX, and UV-Vis spectroscopy. The detailed study confirmed that nanoparticles have grown in high density and have good optical properties. The photocatalytic batch experiment was performed in an aqueous solution where congo red dye was used as a dye pollutant under the irradiation of ultraviolet rays created by using a mercury lamp source. Total degradation efficiency achieved was approximately 85% to 93% in the duration of 100-120 minutes of irradiation under an ultraviolet light source. The decolorization ability of this process was measured by absorbance at a maximum wavelength of 498nm. The results indicated that the iron-doped Titanium dioxide nanoparticles showed an excellent photocatalytic response to the degradation of dye under the ultraviolet light source within a very short period of time.

Keywords: titanium dioxide, nano-particles iron dope, photocatalytic degradation, Congo red dye, sol-gel process

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1054 Effect of Mutagenic Compounds on the Yield of Cultivated Pleurotus Pulmonarius

Authors: Simbiat O. Ayilara-Akande, Soji Fakoya

Abstract:

Quality and yield are always the target of farmers, including mushroom farmers. This study investigated how better Pleurotus pulmonarius can be obtained with the induction of mutagens into the process of spawn production in order to improve both the quality and the yield. Mushroom spawns were treated with ultraviolet radiation (UV) and hydroxylamine hydrochloride (HA) at different exposure times (2, 6, and 10 minutes) and different concentrations (10, 30, and 50Mm), respectively. The treated spawns were used to cultivate mushrooms on five substrates in the family of Gramineae viz: sorghum, rice, bamboo, sugarcane, and corn straws. Matured fruit bodies were harvested after a few weeks, and their parameters were taken and recorded. This study reveals a significant yield increase in mushroom grown on all the substrates when treated with ultraviolet radiation (UV) for 10 minutes and 6 minutes, respectively. Mushroom spawns treated with hydroxylamine hydrochloride showed a negative correlation in the yield with an increased in mutagen concentration. Hence, Ultraviolet light could be employed to enhance the quality and yield of mushroom production.

Keywords: mushroom, protein, mutagens, yield

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1053 Application of Stochastic Models to Annual Extreme Streamflow Data

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

Abstract:

This study was designed to find the best stochastic model (using of time series analysis) for annual extreme streamflow (peak and maximum streamflow) of Karkheh River at Iran. The Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model used to simulate these series and forecast those in future. For the analysis, annual extreme streamflow data of Jelogir Majin station (above of Karkheh dam reservoir) for the years 1958–2005 were used. A visual inspection of the time plot gives a little increasing trend; therefore, series is not stationary. The stationarity observed in Auto-Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto-Correlation Function (PACF) plots of annual extreme streamflow was removed using first order differencing (d=1) in order to the development of the ARIMA model. Interestingly, the ARIMA(4,1,1) model developed was found to be most suitable for simulating annual extreme streamflow for Karkheh River. The model was found to be appropriate to forecast ten years of annual extreme streamflow and assist decision makers to establish priorities for water demand. The Statistical Analysis System (SAS) and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) codes were used to determinate of the best model for this series.

Keywords: stochastic models, ARIMA, extreme streamflow, Karkheh river

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1052 Extreme Value Theory Applied in Reliability Analysis: Case Study of Diesel Generator Fans

Authors: Jelena Vucicevic

Abstract:

Reliability analysis represents a very important task in different areas of work. In any industry, this is crucial for maintenance, efficiency, safety and monetary costs. There are ways to calculate reliability, unreliability, failure density and failure rate. In this paper, the results for the reliability of diesel generator fans were calculated through Extreme Value Theory. The Extreme Value Theory is not widely used in the engineering field. Its usage is well known in other areas such as hydrology, meteorology, finance. The significance of this theory is in the fact that unlike the other statistical methods it is focused on rare and extreme values, and not on average. It should be noted that this theory is not designed exclusively for extreme events, but for extreme values in any event. Therefore, this is a great opportunity to apply the theory and test if it could be applied in this situation. The significance of the work is the calculation of time to failure or reliability in a new way, using statistic. Another advantage of this calculation is that there is no need for technical details and it can be implemented in any part for which we need to know the time to fail in order to have appropriate maintenance, but also to maximize usage and minimize costs. In this case, calculations have been made on diesel generator fans but the same principle can be applied to any other part. The data for this paper came from a field engineering study of the time to failure of diesel generator fans. The ultimate goal was to decide whether or not to replace the working fans with a higher quality fan to prevent future failures. The results achieved in this method will show the approximation of time for which the fans will work as they should, and the percentage of probability of fans working more than certain estimated time. Extreme Value Theory can be applied not only for rare and extreme events, but for any event that has values which we can consider as extreme.

Keywords: extreme value theory, lifetime, reliability analysis, statistic, time to failure

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1051 Modeling of Maximum Rainfall Using Poisson-Generalized Pareto Distribution in Kigali, Rwanda

Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye

Abstract:

Extreme rainfall events have caused significant damage to agriculture, ecology, and infrastructure, disruption of human activities, injury, and loss of life. They also have significant social, economic, and environmental consequences because they considerably damage urban as well as rural areas. Early detection of extreme maximum rainfall helps to implement strategies and measures, before they occur, hence mitigating the consequences. Extreme value theory has been used widely in modeling extreme rainfall and in various disciplines, such as financial markets, the insurance industry, failure cases. Climatic extremes have been analyzed by using either generalized extreme value (GEV) or generalized Pareto (GP) distributions, which provides evidence of the importance of modeling extreme rainfall from different regions of the world. In this paper, we focused on Peak Over Thresholds approach, where the Poisson-generalized Pareto distribution is considered as the proper distribution for the study of the exceedances. This research also considers the use of the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution with a Poisson model for arrivals to describe peaks over a threshold. The research used statistical techniques to fit models that used to predict extreme rainfall in Kigali. The results indicate that the proposed Poisson-GP distribution provides a better fit to maximum monthly rainfall data. Further, the Poisson-GP models are able to estimate various return levels. The research also found a slow increase in return levels for maximum monthly rainfall for higher return periods, and further, the intervals are increasingly wider as the return period is increasing.

Keywords: exceedances, extreme value theory, generalized Pareto distribution, Poisson generalized Pareto distribution

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1050 Prediction of Extreme Precipitation in East Asia Using Complex Network

Authors: Feng Guolin, Gong Zhiqiang

Abstract:

In order to study the spatial structure and dynamical mechanism of extreme precipitation in East Asia, a corresponding climate network is constructed by employing the method of event synchronization. It is found that the area of East Asian summer extreme precipitation can be separated into two regions: one with high area weighted connectivity receiving heavy precipitation mostly during the active phase of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), and another one with low area weighted connectivity receiving heavy precipitation during both the active and the retreat phase of the EASM. Besides,a way for the prediction of extreme precipitation is also developed by constructing a directed climate networks. The simulation accuracy in East Asia is 58% with a 0-day lead, and the prediction accuracy is 21% and average 12% with a 1-day and an n-day (2≤n≤10) lead, respectively. Compare to the normal EASM year, the prediction accuracy is lower in a weak year and higher in a strong year, which is relevant to the differences in correlations and extreme precipitation rates in different EASM situations. Recognizing and identifying these effects is good for understanding and predicting extreme precipitation in East Asia.

Keywords: synchronization, climate network, prediction, rainfall

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1049 N-Type GaN Thinning for Enhancing Light Extraction Efficiency in GaN-Based Thin-Film Flip-Chip Ultraviolet (UV) Light Emitting Diodes (LED)

Authors: Anil Kawan, Soon Jae Yu, Jong Min Park

Abstract:

GaN-based 365 nm wavelength ultraviolet (UV) light emitting diodes (LED) have various applications: curing, molding, purification, deodorization, and disinfection etc. However, their usage is limited by very low output power, because of the light absorption in the GaN layers. In this study, we demonstrate a method utilizing removal of 365 nm absorption layer buffer GaN and thinning the n-type GaN so as to improve the light extraction efficiency of the GaN-based 365 nm UV LED. The UV flip chip LEDs of chip size 1.3 mm x 1.3 mm were fabricated using GaN epilayers on a sapphire substrate. Via-hole n-type contacts and highly reflective Ag metal were used for efficient light extraction. LED wafer was aligned and bonded to AlN carrier wafer. To improve the extraction efficiency of the flip chip LED, sapphire substrate and absorption layer buffer GaN were removed by using laser lift-off and dry etching, respectively. To further increase the extraction efficiency of the LED, exposed n-type GaN thickness was reduced by using inductively coupled plasma etching.

Keywords: extraction efficiency, light emitting diodes, n-GaN thinning, ultraviolet

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1048 Applying the Extreme-Based Teaching Model in Post-Secondary Online Classroom Setting: A Field Experiment

Authors: Leon Pan

Abstract:

The first programming course within post-secondary education has long been recognized as a challenging endeavor for both educators and students alike. Historically, these courses have exhibited high failure rates and a notable number of dropouts. Instructors often lament students' lack of effort in their coursework, and students often express frustration that the teaching methods employed are not effective. Drawing inspiration from the successful principles of Extreme Programming, this study introduces an approach—the Extremes-based teaching model — aimed at enhancing the teaching of introductory programming courses. To empirically determine the effectiveness of the model, a comparison was made between a section taught using the extreme-based model and another utilizing traditional teaching methods. Notably, the extreme-based teaching class required students to work collaboratively on projects while also demanding continuous assessment and performance enhancement within groups. This paper details the application of the extreme-based model within the post-secondary online classroom context and presents the compelling results that emphasize its effectiveness in advancing the teaching and learning experiences. The extreme-based model led to a significant increase of 13.46 points in the weighted total average and a commendable 10% reduction in the failure rate.

Keywords: extreme-based teaching model, innovative pedagogical methods, project-based learning, team-based learning

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1047 Generalized Extreme Value Regression with Binary Dependent Variable: An Application for Predicting Meteorological Drought Probabilities

Authors: Retius Chifurira

Abstract:

Logistic regression model is the most used regression model to predict meteorological drought probabilities. When the dependent variable is extreme, the logistic model fails to adequately capture drought probabilities. In order to adequately predict drought probabilities, we use the generalized linear model (GLM) with the quantile function of the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) as the link function. The method maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters of the generalized extreme value (GEV) regression model. We compare the performance of the logistic and the GEV regression models in predicting drought probabilities for Zimbabwe. The performance of the regression models are assessed using the goodness-of-fit tests, namely; relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and relative mean absolute error (RMAE). Results show that the GEV regression model performs better than the logistic model, thereby providing a good alternative candidate for predicting drought probabilities. This paper provides the first application of GLM derived from extreme value theory to predict drought probabilities for a drought-prone country such as Zimbabwe.

Keywords: generalized extreme value distribution, general linear model, mean annual rainfall, meteorological drought probabilities

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1046 A Bayesian Model with Improved Prior in Extreme Value Problems

Authors: Eva L. Sanjuán, Jacinto Martín, M. Isabel Parra, Mario M. Pizarro

Abstract:

In Extreme Value Theory, inference estimation for the parameters of the distribution is made employing a small part of the observation values. When block maxima values are taken, many data are discarded. We developed a new Bayesian inference model to seize all the information provided by the data, introducing informative priors and using the relations between baseline and limit parameters. Firstly, we studied the accuracy of the new model for three baseline distributions that lead to a Gumbel extreme distribution: Exponential, Normal and Gumbel. Secondly, we considered mixtures of Normal variables, to simulate practical situations when data do not adjust to pure distributions, because of perturbations (noise).

Keywords: bayesian inference, extreme value theory, Gumbel distribution, highly informative prior

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1045 A Machine Learning-Based Approach to Capture Extreme Rainfall Events

Authors: Willy Mbenza, Sho Kenjiro

Abstract:

Increasing efforts are directed towards a better understanding and foreknowledge of extreme precipitation likelihood, given the adverse effects associated with their occurrence. This knowledge plays a crucial role in long-term planning and the formulation of effective emergency response. However, predicting extreme events reliably presents a challenge to conventional empirical/statistics due to the involvement of numerous variables spanning different time and space scales. In the recent time, Machine Learning has emerged as a promising tool for predicting the dynamics of extreme precipitation. ML techniques enables the consideration of both local and regional physical variables that have a strong influence on the likelihood of extreme precipitation. These variables encompasses factors such as air temperature, soil moisture, specific humidity, aerosol concentration, among others. In this study, we develop an ML model that incorporates both local and regional variables while establishing a robust relationship between physical variables and precipitation during the downscaling process. Furthermore, the model provides valuable information on the frequency and duration of a given intensity of precipitation.

Keywords: machine learning (ML), predictions, rainfall events, regional variables

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1044 Design of UV Based Unicycle Robot to Disinfect Germs and Communicate With Multi-Robot System

Authors: Charles Koduru, Parth Patel, M. Hassan Tanveer

Abstract:

In this paper, the communication between a team of robots is used to sanitize an environment with germs is proposed. We introduce capabilities from a team of robots (most likely heterogeneous), a wheeled robot named ROSbot 2.0 that consists of a mounted LiDAR and Kinect sensor, and a modified prototype design of a unicycle-drive Roomba robot called the UV robot. The UV robot consists of ultrasonic sensors to avoid obstacles and is equipped with an ultraviolet light system to disinfect and kill germs, such as bacteria and viruses. In addition, the UV robot is equipped with disinfectant spray to target hidden objects that ultraviolet light is unable to reach. Using the sensors from the ROSbot 2.0, the robot will create a 3-D model of the environment which will be used to factor how the ultraviolet robot will disinfect the environment. Together this proposed system is known as the RME assistive robot device or RME system, which communicates between a navigation robot and a germ disinfecting robot operated by a user. The RME system includes a human-machine interface that allows the user to control certain features of each robot in the RME assistive robot device. This method allows the cleaning process to be done at a more rapid and efficient pace as the UV robot disinfects areas just by moving around in the environment while using the ultraviolet light system to kills germs. The RME system can be used in many applications including, public offices, stores, airports, hospitals, and schools. The RME system will be beneficial even after the COVID-19 pandemic. The Kennesaw State University will continue the research in the field of robotics, engineering, and technology and play its role to serve humanity.

Keywords: multi robot system, assistive robots, COVID-19 pandemic, ultraviolent technology

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1043 Comparing Measurements of UV Radiation in Winter and Summer in Finland

Authors: R. Pääkkönen, L. Korpinen, F. Gobba

Abstract:

The objective of our study is to investigate UV exposure in Finland through sample measurements as a typical case study in summer and winter. We measured UV-BC weighted radiation and calculated a daily dose, which is about 100–150 times the Finnish exposure limit value in summer and 1–6 times in winter. The measured ultraviolet indices varied from 0 to 7 (scale 0–18), which is less than the values obtained in countries that are located farther south from Tampere latitude of 61 degrees. In wintertime, the UV exposure was modest compared to summertime, 50–150 mW/m2 and about 1–5 mW/m2 in summer and winter, respectively. However, technical means to manage UV exposure in Scandinavia are also needed in summer- and springtime.

Keywords: ultraviolet radiation, measurement, winter, summer

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1042 Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Northern Thailand

Authors: Chakrit Chotamonsak

Abstract:

This study was analyzed changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in northern Thailand for the period 1981-2011.The study includes an analysis of the average and trends of changes in temperature and precipitation using 22 climate indices, related to the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme climate events. The results showed that the averaged trend of maximum, minimum and mean temperature is likely to increase over the study area in rate of 0.5, 0.9 and 0.7 °C in last 30 years. Changes in temperature at nighttime, then rising at a rate higher daytime is resulting to decline of diurnal temperature range throughout the area. Trend of changes in average precipitation during the year 1981-2011 is expected to increase at an average rate of 21%. The intensity of extreme temperature events is increasing almost all station. In particular, the changes of the night were unusually hot has intensified throughout the region. In some provinces such as Chiang Mai and Lampang are likely be faced with the severity of hot days and hot nights in increasing rate. Frequency of extreme temperature events are likely to increase each station, especially hot days, and hot nights are increasing at a rate of 2.38 and 3.58 days per decade. Changes in the cold days and cold nights are declining at a rate of 0.82 and 3.03 days per decade. The duration of extreme temperature events is expected to increase the events hot in every station. An average of 17.8 days per decade for the number of consecutive cold winter nights likely shortens the rate of 2.90 days per decade. The analysis of the precipitation indices reveals the intensity of extreme precipitation is increasing almost across the region. The intensify expressed the heavy rain in one day (Rx1day) and very heavy rain accumulated in 5 days (RX5day) which is likely to increase, and very heavy rainfall is likely to increase in intensity. Frequency of extreme precipitation events is likely to increase over the station. The average frequency of heavy precipitation events increased xxx days per decade. The duration of extreme precipitation events, such as the consecutive dry days are likely to reduce the numbers almost all station while the consecutive wet days tends to increase and decrease at different numbers in different areas.

Keywords: climate extreme, temperature extreme, precipitation extreme, Northern Thailand

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1041 Damage Cost for Private Property by Extreme Wind over the past 10 Years in Korea

Authors: Gou-Moon Choi, Woo-Young Jung, Chan-Young Yune

Abstract:

Recently, the natural disaster has increased worldwide. In Korea, the damage to life and property caused by a typhoon, heavy rain, heavy snow, and an extreme wind also increases every year. Among natural disasters, the frequency and the strength of wind have increased because sea surface temperature has risen due to the increase of the average temperature of the Earth. In the case of extreme wind disaster, it is impossible to control or reduce the occurrence, and the recovery cost always exceeds the damage cost. Therefore, quantitative estimation of the damage cost for extreme wind needs to be established beforehand to install proactive countermeasures. In this study, the damage cost for private properties was analyzed based on the data for the past 10 years in Korea. The damage cost curve was also suggested for the metropolitan cities and provinces. The result shows the possibility for the regional application of the damage cost curve because the damage cost of the regional area is estimated based on the cost of cities and provinces.

Keywords: damage cost, extreme wind, natural disaster, private property

Procedia PDF Downloads 247
1040 Extreme Value Modelling of Ghana Stock Exchange Indices

Authors: Kwabena Asare, Ezekiel N. N. Nortey, Felix O. Mettle

Abstract:

Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana Stock Exchange All-Shares indices (2000-2010) by applying the Extreme Value Theory to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model’s goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

Keywords: extreme value theory, expected shortfall, generalized pareto distribution, peak over threshold, value at risk

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1039 Outstanding Lubricant Using Fluorographene as an Extreme Pressure Additive

Authors: Adriana Hernandez-Martinez, Edgar D. Ramon-Raygoza

Abstract:

Currently, there has been a great interest, during the last years, on graphene due to its lubricant properties on friction and antiwear processes. Likewise, fluorographene has also been gaining renown due to its excellent chemical and physical properties which have been mostly applied in the electronics industry. Nevertheless, its tribological properties haven’t been analyzed thoroughly. In this paper, fluorographene was examined as an extreme pressure additive and the nano lubricant made with a cutting fluid and fluorographene in the range of 0.01-0.5% wt, which proved to withstand 53.78% more pounds than the conventional product and 7.12% more than the nano lubricant with graphene in a range between 0.01-0.5% wt. Said extreme pressure test was carried out with a Pin and Vee Block Tribometer following an ASTM D3233A test. The fluorographene used has a low C/F ratio, which reflects a greater presence of atomic fluorine and its low oxygen percentage, supports the substitution of oxygen-containing groups by fluorine. XPS Spectra shows high atomic fluorine content of 56.12%, and SEM analysis details the formation of long and clear crystalline structures, in the fluorographene used.

Keywords: extreme pressure additive, fluorographene, nanofluids, nanolubricant

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1038 Killed by the ‘Subhuman’: Jane Longhurst’s Murder and the Construction of the ‘Extreme Pornography’ Problem in the British National Press

Authors: Dimitrios Akrivos, Alexandros K. Antoniou

Abstract:

This paper looks at the crucial role of the British news media in the construction of extreme pornography as a social problem, suggesting that this paved the way for the subsequent criminalization of such material through the introduction of the Criminal Justice and Immigration Act 2008. Focusing on the high-profile case of Graham Coutts, it examines the British national press’ reaction to Jane Longhurst’s murder through a qualitative content analysis of 251 relevant news articles. Specifically, the paper documents the key arguments expressed in the corresponding claims-making process. It considers the different ways in which the consequent ‘trial by media’ presented this exceptional case as the ‘tip of the iceberg’ and eventually translated into policy. The analysis sheds light on the attempts to ‘piggyback’ the issue of extreme pornography on child sexual abuse images as well as the textual and visual mechanisms used to establish an ‘us versus them’ dichotomy in the pertinent media discourse. Finally, the paper assesses the severity of the actual risk posed by extreme pornography, concluding that its criminalization should not merely be dismissed as the outcome of an institutionalized media panic.

Keywords: criminalization, extreme pornography, social problem, trial by media

Procedia PDF Downloads 209