Search results for: extreme precipitation events

Authors: Nguyen Tien Thanh, Günter Meon

Abstract:

Precipitation plays a key role in water cycle, defining the local climatic conditions and in ecosystem. It is also an important input parameter for water resources management and hydrologic models. With spatial continuous data, a certainty of discharge predictions or other environmental factors is unquestionably better than without. This is, however, not always willingly available to acquire for a small basin, especially for coastal region in Vietnam due to a low network of meteorological stations (30 stations) on long coast of 3260 km2. Furthermore, available gridded precipitation datasets are not fine enough when applying to hydrologic models. Under conditions of global warming, an application of spatial interpolation methods is a crucial for the climate change impact studies to obtain the spatial continuous data. In recent research projects, although some methods can perform better than others do, no methods draw the best results for all cases. The objective of this paper therefore, is to investigate different spatial interpolation methods for daily precipitation over a small basin (approximately 400 km2) located in coastal region, Southern Vietnam and find out the most efficient interpolation method on this catchment. The five different interpolation methods consisting of cressman, ordinary kriging, regression kriging, dual kriging and inverse distance weighting have been applied to identify the best method for the area of study on the spatio-temporal scale (daily, 10 km x 10 km). A 30-year precipitation database was created and merged into available gridded datasets. Finally, observed changes in constructed precipitation were performed. The results demonstrate that the method of ordinary kriging interpolation is an effective approach to analyze the daily precipitation. The mixed trends of increasing and decreasing monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation have documented at significant levels.

Keywords: interpolation, precipitation, trend, vietnam

Procedia PDF Downloads 250

Authors: Zeinu Ahmed Rabba, Derek D Stretch

Abstract:

Remote sensing contributes valuable information to streamflow estimates. Usually, stream flow is directly measured through ground-based hydrological monitoring station. However, in many developing countries like Ethiopia, ground-based hydrological monitoring networks are either sparse or nonexistent, which limits the manage water resources and hampers early flood-warning systems. In such cases, satellite remote sensing is an alternative means to acquire such information. This paper discusses the application of remotely sensed rainfall data for streamflow modeling in Gilgel Ghibe basin in Ethiopia. Ten years (2001-2010) of two satellite-based precipitation products (SBPP), TRMM and WaterBase, were used. These products were combined with the PyTOPKAPI hydrological model to generate daily stream flows. The results were compared with streamflow observations at Gilgel Ghibe Nr, Assendabo gauging station using four statistical tools (Bias, R², NS and RMSE). The statistical analysis indicates that the bias-adjusted SBPPs agree well with gauged rainfall compared to bias-unadjusted ones. The SBPPs with no bias-adjustment tend to overestimate (high Bias and high RMSE) the extreme precipitation events and the corresponding simulated streamflow outputs, particularly during wet months (June-September) and underestimate the streamflow prediction over few dry months (January and February). This shows that bias-adjustment can be important for improving the performance of the SBPPs in streamflow forecasting. We further conclude that the general streamflow patterns were well captured at daily time scales when using SBPPs after bias adjustment. However, the overall results demonstrate that the simulated streamflow using the gauged rainfall is superior to those obtained from remotely sensed rainfall products including bias-adjusted ones.

Keywords: Ethiopia, PyTOPKAPI model, remote sensing, streamflow, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), waterBase

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Redouane Larbi Boufeniza, Jing-Jia Luo

Abstract:

This study assesses the suitability of deep learning (DL) for downscaling sea surface temperature (SST) over the Mediterranean Sea in the context of seasonal forecasting. We design a set of experiments that compare different DL configurations and deploy the best-performing architecture to downscale one-month lead forecasts of June–September (JJAS) SST from the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System version 1.0 (NUIST-CFS1.0) for the period of 1982–2020. We have also introduced predictors over a larger area to include information about the main large-scale circulations that drive SST over the Mediterranean Sea region, which improves the downscaling results. Finally, we validate the raw model and downscaled forecasts in terms of both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics, as well as their ability to reproduce the observed precipitation extreme and spell indicator indices. The results showed that the convolutional neural network (CNN)-based downscaling consistently improves the raw model forecasts, with lower bias and more accurate representations of the observed mean and extreme SST spatial patterns. Besides, the CNN-based downscaling yields a much more accurate forecast of extreme SST and spell indicators and reduces the significant relevant biases exhibited by the raw model predictions. Moreover, our results show that the CNN-based downscaling yields better skill scores than the raw model forecasts over most portions of the Mediterranean Sea. The results demonstrate the potential usefulness of CNN in downscaling seasonal SST predictions over the Mediterranean Sea, particularly in providing improved forecast products.

Keywords: Mediterranean Sea, sea surface temperature, seasonal forecasting, downscaling, deep learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 41

Authors: Kotbia Labiod, Mohamed Mouldi Tlili

Abstract:

The presence of different mineral salts in natural waters may precipitate and form hard deposits in water distribution systems. In this respect, we have developed numerous works on scaling by Algerian water with a very high hardness of 102 °F. The aim of our work is to study the influence of water dynamics and its composition on mineral salts on the precipitation of calcium carbonate (CaCO3). To achieve this objective, we have adopted two precipitation techniques based on controlled degassing of dissolved CO2. This study will identify the causes and provide answers to this complex phenomenon.

Keywords: calcium carbonate, controlled degassing, precipitation, scaling

Procedia PDF Downloads 190

Authors: Leon Pan

Abstract:

The first programming course within post-secondary education has long been recognized as a challenging endeavor for both educators and students alike. Historically, these courses have exhibited high failure rates and a notable number of dropouts. Instructors often lament students' lack of effort in their coursework, and students often express frustration that the teaching methods employed are not effective. Drawing inspiration from the successful principles of Extreme Programming, this study introduces an approach—the Extremes-based teaching model — aimed at enhancing the teaching of introductory programming courses. To empirically determine the effectiveness of the model, a comparison was made between a section taught using the extreme-based model and another utilizing traditional teaching methods. Notably, the extreme-based teaching class required students to work collaboratively on projects while also demanding continuous assessment and performance enhancement within groups. This paper details the application of the extreme-based model within the post-secondary online classroom context and presents the compelling results that emphasize its effectiveness in advancing the teaching and learning experiences. The extreme-based model led to a significant increase of 13.46 points in the weighted total average and a commendable 10% reduction in the failure rate.

Keywords: extreme-based teaching model, innovative pedagogical methods, project-based learning, team-based learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 25

Authors: Leila Rashidian

Abstract:

Temperature rise on Earth has had harmful effects on the Earth's surface and has led to change in precipitation patterns all around the world. The present research was aimed to study the process of climate change according to the data simulation in future and compare these parameters with current situation in the studied stations in Semnan province including Garmsar, Shahrood and Semnan. In this regard, LARS-WG software, HADCM₃ model and A₂ scenario were used for the 2010-2030 period. In this model, climatic parameters such as maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and radiation were used daily. The obtained results indicated that there will be a 4.4% increase in precipitation in Semnan province compared with the observed data, and in general, there will be a 1.9% increase in temperature. This temperature rise has significant impact on precipitation patterns. Most of precipitation will be raining (torrential rains in some cases). According to the results, from west to east, the country will experience more temperature rise and will be warmer.

Keywords: climate change, Semnan province, Lars.WG model, climate parameters, HADCM₃ model

Procedia PDF Downloads 212

Authors: Retius Chifurira

Abstract:

Logistic regression model is the most used regression model to predict meteorological drought probabilities. When the dependent variable is extreme, the logistic model fails to adequately capture drought probabilities. In order to adequately predict drought probabilities, we use the generalized linear model (GLM) with the quantile function of the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) as the link function. The method maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters of the generalized extreme value (GEV) regression model. We compare the performance of the logistic and the GEV regression models in predicting drought probabilities for Zimbabwe. The performance of the regression models are assessed using the goodness-of-fit tests, namely; relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and relative mean absolute error (RMAE). Results show that the GEV regression model performs better than the logistic model, thereby providing a good alternative candidate for predicting drought probabilities. This paper provides the first application of GLM derived from extreme value theory to predict drought probabilities for a drought-prone country such as Zimbabwe.

Keywords: generalized extreme value distribution, general linear model, mean annual rainfall, meteorological drought probabilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Hsin-Chih Lai, Yung-Lung Lee, Yun-Yao Chi, Ching-Yi Horng, Pei-Chih Wu, Hsien-Chang Wang

Abstract:

Taiwan, a climatically challenged island, has always been keen on the issue of water resource management due to its limitations in water storage. Since water resource management has been the focal point of many adaptations to climate change, there has been a lack of attention on another issue, water quality. This study chooses the Errer River Basin as the experimental focus for water quality in Taiwan. With the Errer River Basin being one of the most polluted rivers in Taiwan, this study observes the effects of climate change on this river over a period of time. Taiwan is also targeted by multiple typhoons every year, the heavy rainfall and strong winds create problems of pollution being carried to different river segments, including into the ocean. This study aims to create an impact and risk assessment on Errer River Basin, to show the connection from climate change to potential extreme events, which in turn could influence water quality and ultimately human health. Using dynamic downscaling, this study narrows the information from a global scale to a resolution of 1 km x 1 km. Then, through interpolation, the resolution is further narrowed into a resolution of 200m x 200m, to analyze the past, present, and future of extreme events. According to different climate change scenarios, this study designs an assessment index on the vulnerability of the Errer River Basin. Through this index, Errer River inhabitants can access advice on adaptations to climate change and act accordingly.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation, water quality, risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 320

Authors: Sudip Kumar Kundu, Charu Singh

Abstract:

As a great physiographic divide, the Himalayas affecting a large system of water and air circulation which helps to determine the climatic condition in the Indian subcontinent to the south and mid-Asian highlands to the north. It creates obstacles by defending chill continental air from north side into India in winter and also defends rain-bearing southwesterly monsoon to give up maximum precipitation in that area in monsoon season. Nowadays extreme weather conditions such as heavy precipitation, cloudburst, flash flood, landslide and extreme avalanches are the regular happening incidents in the region of North Western Himalayan (NWH). The present study has been planned to investigate the suitable model(s) to find out the rainfall pattern over that region. For this investigation, selected models from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) has been utilized in a consistent framework for the period of 1976 to 2000 (historical). The ability of these driving models from CORDEX domain and CMIP5 has been examined according to their capability of the spatial distribution as well as time series plot of rainfall over NWH in the rainy season and compared with the ground-based Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data set. It is noted from the analysis that the models like MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR from the both CORDEX and CMIP5 provide the best spatial distribution of rainfall over NWH region. But the driving models from CORDEX underestimates the daily rainfall amount as compared to CMIP5 driving models as it is unable to capture daily rainfall data properly when it has been plotted for time series (TS) individually for the state of Uttarakhand (UK) and Himachal Pradesh (HP). So finally it can be said that the driving models from CMIP5 are better than CORDEX domain models to investigate the rainfall pattern over NWH region.

Keywords: global warming, rainfall, CMIP5, CORDEX, NWH

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Tahar Abid, Haoues Ghouss, Abdelhamid Boubertakh

Abstract:

This present work is focused on the hardening precipitation in two AlMgSi(Cu) automotive body sheets. The effect of pre-aging, aging treatment and 0.10 wt % copper addition on the hardening response was investigated using scanning calorimetry (DSC), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and Vickers microhardness measurements (Hv). The results reveal the apparition of α-AlFeSi, α-AlFe(Mn)Si type precipitates frequently present and witch remain stable at high temperature in Al-Mg-Si alloys. Indeed, the hardening response in both sheets is certainly due to the predominance of very fine typical phases β' and β'' as rods and needles developed during aging with and without pre-aging. The effect of pre ageing just after homogenization and quenching is to correct the undesirable effect of aging at ambient temperature by making faster alloy hardening during artificial aging.The addition of 0.10 wt % copper has allowed to refine and to enhance the precipitation hardening after quenching.

Keywords: AlMgSi alloys, precipitation, hardening, activation energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: Eva L. Sanjuán, Jacinto Martín, M. Isabel Parra, Mario M. Pizarro

Abstract:

In Extreme Value Theory, inference estimation for the parameters of the distribution is made employing a small part of the observation values. When block maxima values are taken, many data are discarded. We developed a new Bayesian inference model to seize all the information provided by the data, introducing informative priors and using the relations between baseline and limit parameters. Firstly, we studied the accuracy of the new model for three baseline distributions that lead to a Gumbel extreme distribution: Exponential, Normal and Gumbel. Secondly, we considered mixtures of Normal variables, to simulate practical situations when data do not adjust to pure distributions, because of perturbations (noise).

Keywords: bayesian inference, extreme value theory, Gumbel distribution, highly informative prior

Procedia PDF Downloads 160

Authors: Vito Telesca, Giuseppina A. Giorgio

Abstract:

The earth system is subject to a wide range of human activities that have changed the ecosystem more rapidly and extensively in the last five decades. These global changes have a large impact on human health. The relationship between extreme weather events and mortality are widely documented in different studies. In particular, a number of studies have investigated the relationship between climatological variations and the cardiovascular and respiratory system. The researchers have become interested in the evaluation of the effect of environmental variations on the occurrence of different diseases (such as infarction, ischemic heart disease, asthma, respiratory problems, etc.) and mortality. Among changes in weather conditions, the heat waves have been used for investigating the association between weather conditions and cardiovascular events and cerebrovascular, using thermal indices, which combine air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The effects of heat waves on human health are mainly found in the urban areas and they are aggravated by the presence of atmospheric pollution. The consequences of these changes for human health are of growing concern. In particular, meteorological conditions are one of the environmental aspects because cardiovascular diseases are more common among the elderly population, and such people are more sensitive to weather changes. In addition, heat waves, or extreme heat events, are predicted to increase in frequency, intensity, and duration with climate change. In this context, are very important public health and climate change connections increasingly being recognized by the medical research, because these might help in informing the public at large. Policy experts claim that a growing awareness of the relationships of public health and climate change could be a key in breaking through political logjams impeding action on mitigation and adaptation. The aims of this study are to investigate about the importance of interactions between weather variables and your effects on human health, focusing on Italy. Also highlighting the need to define strategies and practical actions of monitoring, adaptation and mitigation of the phenomenon.

Keywords: climate change, illness, Italy, temperature, weather

Procedia PDF Downloads 217

Authors: Martin Kittel, Alexander Roth

Abstract:

The continuous integration of variable renewable energy sources (VRE) in the power sector is required for decarbonizing the European economy. Power sectors become increasingly exposed to weather variability, as the availability of VRE, i.e., mainly wind and solar photovoltaic, is not persistent. Extreme events, e.g., long-lasting periods of scarce VRE availability (‘VRE droughts’), challenge the reliability of supply. Properly accounting for the severity of VRE droughts is crucial for designing a resilient renewable European power sector. Energy system modeling is used to identify such a design. Our analysis reveals the sensitivity of the optimal design of the European power sector towards VRE droughts. We analyze how VRE droughts impact optimal power sector investments, especially in generation and flexibility capacity. We draw upon work that systematically identifies VRE drought patterns in Europe in terms of frequency, duration, and seasonality, as well as the cross-regional and cross-technological correlation of most extreme drought periods. Based on their analysis, the authors provide a selection of relevant historical weather years representing different grades of VRE drought severity. These weather years will serve as input for the capacity expansion model for the European power sector used in this analysis (DIETER). We additionally conduct robustness checks varying policy-relevant assumptions on capacity expansion limits, interconnections, and level of sector coupling. Preliminary results illustrate how an imprudent selection of weather years may cause underestimating the severity of VRE droughts, flawing modeling insights concerning the need for flexibility. Sub-optimal European power sector designs vulnerable to extreme weather can result. Using relevant weather years that appropriately represent extreme weather events, our analysis identifies a resilient design of the European power sector. Although the scope of this work is limited to the European power sector, we are confident that our insights apply to other regions of the world with similar weather patterns. Many energy system studies still rely on one or a limited number of sometimes arbitrarily chosen weather years. We argue that the deliberate selection of relevant weather years is imperative for robust modeling results.

Keywords: energy systems, numerical optimization, variable renewable energy sources, energy drought, flexibility

Procedia PDF Downloads 40

Authors: J. Suwanprateeb, F. Thammarakcharoen

Abstract:

Calcium phosphate coating (CaP) has been employed for protein delivery, but the typical direct protein adsorption on the coating led to low incorporation content and fast release of the protein from the coating. By using bovine serum albumin (BSA) as a model protein, rapid biomimetic co-precipitation between calcium phosphate and BSA was employed to control the distribution of BSA within calcium phosphate coating during biomimetic formation on titanium surface for only 6 h at 50 oC in an accelerated calcium phosphate solution. As a result, the amount of BSA incorporation and release duration could be increased by using a rapid biomimetic co-precipitation technique. Up to 43 fold increases in the BSA incorporation content and the increase from 6 h to more than 360 h in release duration compared to typical direct adsorption technique were observed depending on the initial BSA concentration used during co-precipitation (1, 10, and 100 microgram/ml). From X-ray diffraction and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy studies, the coating composition was not altered with the incorporation of BSA by this rapid biomimetic co-precipitation and mainly comprised octacalcium phosphate and hydroxyapatite. However, the microstructure of calcium phosphate crystals changed from straight, plate-like units to curved, plate-like units with increasing BSA content.

Keywords: biomimetic, Calcium Phosphate Coating, protein, titanium

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: Chiung-Chin Huang, Jui-Yen Lin, Yao-Hui Huang

Abstract:

Among current techniques of boron removal from wastewater with high boron concentration, chemical oxo-precipitation (COP) is one of the promising methods due to its milder condition. COP uses H2O2 to transform boric acid to perborates which can easily precipitate with barium ions at room temperature. However, the generation of the waste sludge that requires sludge/water separation and sludge dewatering is troublesome. This work presents an innovative technology which integrates chemical oxo-precipitation (COP) with fluidized-bed homogeneous granulation (FBHG) to reclaim boron as homogeneous perborate particles. By conducting COP in a fluidized-bed reactor, the barium perborate can be granulated to form homogeneous particles (>1.0 mm) with low water content (< 10%). Under the suitable condition, more than 70% of boron can be recovered from 600 ppm of boron solution and the residual boron is lower than 100 ppm.

Keywords: barium, perborate, chemical oxo-precipitation, boron removal, fluidized-bed, granulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 289

Authors: Mahtsente Tadese, Lalit Kumar, Richard Koech

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to project and analyze climate change in the Awash River Basin (ARB) using bias-corrected Global and Regional Climate Model simulations. The analysis included a baseline period from 1986-2005 and two future scenarios (the 2050s and 2070s) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Bias correction methods were evaluated using graphical and statistical methods. Following the evaluation of bias correction methods, the Distribution Mapping (DM) and Power Transformation (PT) were used for temperature and precipitation projection, respectively. The 2050s and 2070s RCP4 simulations showed an increase in precipitation during half of the months with 32 and 10%, respectively. Moreover, the 2050s and 2070s RCP8.5 simulation indicated a decrease in precipitation with 18 and 26%, respectively. The 2050s and 2070s RCP8.5 simulation indicated a significant decrease in precipitation in four of the months (February/March to May) with the highest decreasing rate of 34.7%. The 2050s and 2070s RCP4.5 simulation showed an increase of 0.48-2.6 °C in maximum temperature. In the case of RCP8.5, the increase rate reached 3.4 °C and 4.1 °C in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. The changes in precipitation and temperature might worsen the water stress, flood, and drought in ARB. Moreover, the critical focus should be given to mitigation strategies and management options to reduce the negative impact. The findings of this study provide valuable information on future precipitation and temperature change in ARB, which will help in the planning and design of sustainable mitigation approaches in the basin.

Keywords: variability, climate change, Awash River Basin, precipitation

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Juergen Junk, Franz Ronellenfitsch, Michael Eickermann

Abstract:

An appropriate weed management in autumn is a prerequisite for an economically successful harvest in the following year. In Luxembourg oilseed rape, wheat and barley is sown from August until October, accompanied by a chemical weed control with soil active herbicides, depending on the state of the weeds and the meteorological conditions. Based on regular ground and surface water-analysis, high levels of contamination by transformation products of respective herbicide compounds have been found in Luxembourg. The most ideal conditions for incorporating soil active herbicides are single rain events. Weed control may be reduced if application is made when weeds are under drought stress or if repeated light rain events followed by dry spells, because the herbicides tend to bind tightly to the soil particles. These effects have been frequently reported for Luxembourg throughout the last years. In the framework of a multisite long-term field experiment (EFFO) weed monitoring, plants observations and corresponding meteorological measurements were conducted. Long-term time series (1947-2016) from the SYNOP station Findel-Airport (WMO ID = 06590) showed a decrease in the number of days with precipitation. As the total precipitation amount has not significantly changed, this indicates a trend towards rain events with higher intensity. All analyses are based on decades (10-day periods) for September and October of each individual year. To assess the future meteorological conditions for Luxembourg, two different approaches were applied. First, multi-model ensembles from the CORDEX experiments (spatial resolution ~12.5 km; transient projections until 2100) were analysed for two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5), covering the time span from 2005 until 2100. The multi-model ensemble approach allows for the quantification of the uncertainties and also to assess the differences between the two emission scenarios. Second, to assess smaller scale differences within the country a high resolution model projection using the COSMO-LM model was used (spatial resolution 1.3 km). To account for the higher computational demands, caused by the increased spatial resolution, only 10-year time slices have been simulated (reference period 1991-2000; near future 2041-2050 and far future 2091-2100). Statistically significant trends towards higher air temperatures, +1.6 K for September (+5.3 K far future) and +1.3 K for October (+4.3 K), were predicted for the near future compared to the reference period. Precipitation simultaneously decreased by 9.4 mm (September) and 5.0 mm (October) for the near future and -49 mm (September) and -10 mm (October) in the far future. Beside the monthly values also decades were analyzed for the two future time periods of the CLM model. For all decades of September and October the number of days with precipitation decreased for the projected near and far future. Changes in meteorological variables such as air temperature and precipitation did already induce transformations in weed societies (composition, late-emerging etc.) of arable ecosystems in Europe. Therefore, adaptations of agronomic practices as well as effective weed control strategies must be developed to maintain crop yield.

Keywords: CORDEX projections, dry spells, ensembles, weed management

Procedia PDF Downloads 203

Authors: Elisha Kyirem

Abstract:

Undoubtedly, climate change is a major global challenge that could threaten the very foundation upon which life on earth is anchored, with its impacts on human mobility attracting the attention of policy makers and researchers. There is an increasing body of literature and case studies suggesting that migration could be a way through which the vulnerable move away from areas exposed to climate extreme events to improve their lives and that of their families. This presents migration as a way through which people voluntarily move to seek opportunities that could help reduce their exposure and avoid danger from climate events. Thus, migration is seen as a proactive adaptation strategy aimed at building resilience and improving livelihoods to enable people to adapt to future changing events. However, there has not been any mathematical equation linking migration and climate change adaptation. Drawing from literature in development studies, this paper develops an equation that seeks to link the relationship between migration and climate change adaptation. The mathematical equation establishes the linkages between migration, resilience, poverty reduction and vulnerability, and these the paper maintains, are the key variables for conceptualizing the migration-climate change adaptation nexus. The paper then tests the validity of the equation using the sustainable livelihood framework and publicly available data on migration and tourism in Ghana.

Keywords: migration, adaptation, climate change, adaptation, poverty reduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 351

Authors: Raquel Nieto, Marta Vázquez, Anita Drumond, Luis Gimeno

Abstract:

One of the hot spots of climate change is the increment of ocean evaporation. The best estimation of evaporation, OAFlux data, shows strong increasing trends in evaporation from the oceans since 1978, with peaks during the hemispheric winter and strongest along the paths of the global western boundary currents and any inner Seas. The transport of moisture from oceanic sources to the continents is the connection between evaporation from the ocean and precipitation over the continents. A key question is to try to relate evaporative source regions over the oceans where trends have occurred in the last decades with their sinks over the continents to check if there have been also any trends in the precipitation amount or its characteristics. A Lagrangian approach based on FLEXPART and ERA-interim data is used to establish this connection. The analyzed period was 1980 to 2012. Results show that there is not a general pattern, but a significant agreement was found in important areas of climate interest.

Keywords: ocean evaporation, Lagrangian approaches, contiental precipitation, Europe

Procedia PDF Downloads 224

Authors: Balogun R. Ayodeji, Adefisan E. Adesanya, Adeyewa Z. Debo, E. C. Okogbue

Abstract:

The need to investigate diurnal weather circles in West Africa is coined in the fact that complex interactions often results from diurnal weather patterns. This study investigates diurnal circles of wind, rainfall and convective properties using six (6) hour interval data from the ERA-Interim and the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM). The seven distinct zones, used in this work and classified as rainforest (west-coast, dry, Nigeria-Cameroon), Savannah (Nigeria, and Central Africa and South Sudan (CASS)), Sudano-Sahel, and Sahel, were clearly indicated by the rainfall pattern in each zones. Results showed that the land‐ocean warming contrast was more strongly sensitive to seasonal cycle and has been very weak during March-May (MAM) but clearly spelt out during June-September (JJAS). Dipoles of wind convergence/divergence and wet/dry precipitation, between CASS and Nigeria Savannah zones, were identified in morning and evening hours of MAM, whereas distinct night and day anomaly, in the same location of CASS, were found to be consistent during the JJAS season. Diurnal variation of convective properties showed that stratiform precipitation, due to the extremely low occurrence of flashcount climatology, was dominant during morning hours for both MAM and JJAS than other periods of the day. On the other hand, diurnal variation of the system sizes showed that small system sizes were most dominant during the day time periods for both MAM and JJAS, whereas larger system sizes were frequent during the evening, night, and morning hours. The locations of flashcount and system sizes agreed with earlier results that morning and day-time hours were dominated by stratiform precipitation and small system sizes respectively. Most results clearly showed that the eastern locations of Sudano and Sahel were consistently dry because rainfall and precipitation features were predominantly few. System sizes greater than or equal to 800 km² were found in the western axis of the Sudano and Sahel zones, whereas the eastern axis, particularly in the Sahel zone, had minimal occurrences of small/large system sizes. From the results of locations of extreme systems, flashcount greater than 275 in one single system was never observed during the morning (6Z) diurnal, whereas, the evening (18Z) diurnal had the most frequent cases (at least 8) of flashcount exceeding 275 in one single system. Results presented had shown the importance of diurnal variation in understanding precipitation, flashcount, system sizes patterns at diurnal scales, and understanding land-ocean contrast, precipitation, and wind field anomaly at diurnal scales.

Keywords: convective properties, diurnal circle, flashcount, system sizes

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Joo-Heon Lee, Seo-Yeon Park, Chanyang Sur, Ho-Won Jang

Abstract:

Satellite-based remote sensing technique has been widely used in the area of drought and environmental monitoring to overcome the weakness of in-situ based monitoring. There are many advantages of remote sensing for drought watch in terms of data accessibility, monitoring resolution and types of available hydro-meteorological data including environmental areas. This study was focused on the applicability of drought monitoring based on satellite imageries by applying to the historical drought events, which had a huge impact on meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought. Satellite-based drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Mission (GPM); Vegetation Health Index (VHI) using MODIS based Land Surface Temperature (LST), and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI); and Scaled Drought Condition Index (SDCI) were evaluated to assess its capability to analyze the complex topography of the Korean peninsula. While the VHI was accurate when capturing moderate drought conditions in agricultural drought-damaged areas, the SDCI was relatively well monitored in hydrological drought-damaged areas. In addition, this study found correlations among various drought indices and applicability using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) method, which will expand our understanding of the relationships between hydro-meteorological variables and drought events at global scale. The results of this research are expected to assist decision makers in taking timely and appropriate action in order to save millions of lives in drought-damaged areas.

Keywords: drought monitoring, moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS), remote sensing, receiver operating characteristic (ROC)

Procedia PDF Downloads 294

Authors: Krešimir Begović, Miloš Rydval, Jan Tumajer, Kristyna Svobodová, Thomas Langbehn, Yumei Jiang, Vojtech Čada, Vaclav Treml, Ryszard Kaczka, Miroslav Svoboda

Abstract:

Environmental changes have increased the frequency and intensity of climatic extremes, particularly hotter droughts, leading to altered tree growth patterns and multi-year lags in tree recovery. The effects of shifting climatic conditions on tree growth are inhomogeneous across species’ natural distribution ranges, with large spatial heterogeneity and inter-population variability, but generally have significant consequences for contemporary forest dynamics and future ecosystem functioning. Despite numerous studies on the impacts of regional drought effects, large uncertainties remain regarding the mechanistic basis of drought legacy effects on wood formation and the ability of individual species to cope with increasingly drier growing conditions and rising year-to-year climatic variability. To unravel the complexity of climate-growth interactions and assess species-specific responses to severe droughts, we combined forward modeling of tree growth (VS-lite model) with correlation analyses against climate (temperature, precipitation, and the SPEI-3 moisture index) and growth responses to extreme drought events from multiple tree-ring parameters (tree-width and blue intensity parameters). We used an extensive dataset with over 1000 tree-ring samples from 23 nature forest reserves across an altitudinal range in Czechia and Slovakia. Our results revealed substantial spatiotemporal variability in growth responses to summer season temperature and moisture availability across species and tree-ring parameters. However, a general trend of increasing spring moisture-growth sensitivity in recent decades was observed in the Scots pine mountain forests and lowland forests of both species. The VS-lite model effectively captured nonstationary climate-growth relationships and accurately estimated high-frequency growth variability, indicating a significant incidence of regional drought events and growth reductions. Notably, growth reductions during extreme drought years and discrete legacy effects identified in individual wood components were most pronounced in the lowland forests. Together with the observed growth declines in recent decades, these findings suggest an increasing vulnerability of Norway spruce and Scots pine in dry lowlands under intensifying climatic constraints.

Keywords: dendroclimatology, Vaganova–Shashkin lite, conifers, central Europe, drought, blue intensity

Procedia PDF Downloads 25

Authors: Yusuf Dawa Sidi, Abdulrahman Bulama Bizi

Abstract:

The most dependable and precise source of climate data is often gauge observation. However, long-term records of gauge observations, on the other hand, are unavailable in many regions around the world. In recent years, a number of gridded climate datasets with high spatial and temporal resolutions have emerged as viable alternatives to gauge-based measurements. However, it is crucial to thoroughly evaluate their performance prior to utilising them in hydroclimatic applications. Therefore, this study aims to assess the effectiveness of NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA POWER) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) datasets in accurately estimating precipitation and temperature patterns within the dry region of Nigeria from 1990 to 2020. The study employs widely used statistical metrics and the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) to effectively capture the monthly variability of precipitation and temperature and inter-annual anomalies in rainfall. The findings suggest that CRU exhibited superior performance compared to NASA POWER in terms of monthly precipitation and minimum and maximum temperatures, demonstrating a high correlation and much lower error values for both RMSE and MAE. Nevertheless, NASA POWER has exhibited a moderate agreement with gauge observations in accurately replicating monthly precipitation. The analysis of the SPI reveals that the CRU product exhibits superior performance compared to NASA POWER in accurately reflecting inter-annual variations in rainfall anomalies. The findings of this study indicate that the CRU gridded product is often regarded as the most favourable gridded precipitation product.

Keywords: CRU, climate change, precipitation, SPI, temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 35

Authors: Dorota Rucińska

Abstract:

This theoretical paper combines the academic discourse regarding a specific part of dark tourism. Based on the literature analysis, distinction of natural disasters in thanatourism was investigated, which is connected with dynamic geographical conditions. Natural disasters used to play an important role in social life by their appearance in myths and religions. Nowadays, tourists pursuing natural hazards can be divided into three groups: Those interested in natural hazards themselves; those interested in landscape deformation and experiencing emotions shortly after extreme events - natural disasters - occur; and finally those interested in historic places log after an extreme event takes place. An important element of the natural disaster tourism is quick access to information on the location of a disaster and the destination of a potential excursion. Natural disaster tourism suits alternative tourism, yet it is opposed culture tourism, and sustainable tourism. The paper compares types and groups of tourists. It also considers the contradictions that describe dualism, which exists in dark tourism.

Keywords: dark tourism, dualism, natural disasters, natural hazards, thanatoursim

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: Mohammed Russedul Islam, Shah M. Muniruzzaman, M. Kamrul-Al-Masud, Syed Sadat Morshed

Abstract:

Bangladesh is one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world. According to scientists it is predicted that temperature will raise 1-3% and precipitation 20% by 2050 in Bangladesh. Increased temperature and precipitation will deteriorate pavement structure in an accelerated rate. The study has found that pavement life will reduce significantly due to rise in temperature and precipitation in in a coastal road in Bangladesh. It will cause to increase the maintenance cost of the road. The study has found that reduction in pavement life will be caused due the decrease in stiffness and strength parameters of the pavement material due to high temperature and precipitation. It has found that use of new material costlier than the existing one will be necessary to prevent the reduction of pavement life. Eventually it will increase the re-construction cost of the road. The study has used mechanistic-empirical analysis method with a software GAMES (General analysis on multi-layered elastic systems) to find out the effect of temperature and precipitation rise on the pavement life. The study will help to guide road engineers of Bangladesh to prepare in advance to fight with the climate change effect.

Keywords: climate change, maintenance cost, mechanistic-empirical method, pavement life

Procedia PDF Downloads 338

Authors: Warda Ajaz

Abstract:

This study uses the ‘Community Capitals Framework’ (CCF) to develop a community resilience index that can serve as a useful tool for measuring resilience of communities in diverse contexts and backgrounds. CCF is an important analytical tool to assess holistic community change. This framework identifies seven major types of community capitals: natural, cultural, human, social, political, financial and built, and claims that the communities that have been successful in supporting healthy sustainable community and economic development have paid attention to all these capitals. The framework, therefore, proposes to study the community development through identification of assets in these major capitals (stock), investment in these capitals (flow), and the interaction between these capitals. Capital based approaches have been extensively used to assess community resilience, especially in the context of natural disasters and extreme events. Therefore, this study identifies key indicators for estimating each of the seven capitals through an extensive literature review and then develops an index to calculate a community resilience score. The CCF-based community resilience index presents an innovative way of operationalizing the concept of community resilience and will contribute toward decision-relevant research regarding adaptation and mitigation of community vulnerabilities to climate change-induced, as well as other adverse events.

Keywords: adverse events, community capitals, community resilience, climate change, economic development, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 232

Authors: Israel Ropo Orimoloye, Johanes A. Belle, Olusola Adeyemi, Olusola O. Ololade

Abstract:

With more than 100,000 orbits during the past 20 years, Terra has significantly improved our knowledge of the Earth's climate and its implications on societies and ecosystems of human activity and natural disasters, including drought events. With Terra instrument's performance and the free distribution of its products, this study utilised Terra MOD13Q1 satellite data to assess drought disaster events and its spatiotemporal patterns over the Free State Province of South Africa between 2001 and 2019 for summer, autumn, winter, and spring seasons. The study also used high-resolution downscaled climate change projections under three representative concentration pathways (RCP). Three future periods comprising the short (the 2030s), medium (2040s), and long term (2050s) compared to the current period are analysed to understand the potential magnitude of projected climate change-related drought. The study revealed that the year 2001 and 2016 witnessed extreme drought conditions where the drought index is between 0 and 20% across the entire province during summer, while the year 2003, 2004, 2007, and 2015 observed severe drought conditions across the region with variation from one part to the another. The result shows that from -24.5 to -25.5 latitude, the area witnessed a decrease in precipitation (80 to 120mm) across the time slice and an increase in the latitude -26° to -28° S for summer seasons, which is more prominent in the year 2041 to 2050. This study emphasizes the strong spatio-environmental impacts within the province and highlights the associated factors that characterise high drought stress risk, especially on the environment and ecosystems. This study contributes to a disaster risk framework to identify areas for specific research and adaptation activities on drought disaster risk and for environmental planning in the study area, which is characterised by both rural and urban contexts, to address climate change-related drought impacts.

Keywords: remote sensing, drought disaster, climate scenario, assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Gou-Moon Choi, Woo-Young Jung, Chan-Young Yune

Abstract:

Recently, the natural disaster has increased worldwide. In Korea, the damage to life and property caused by a typhoon, heavy rain, heavy snow, and an extreme wind also increases every year. Among natural disasters, the frequency and the strength of wind have increased because sea surface temperature has risen due to the increase of the average temperature of the Earth. In the case of extreme wind disaster, it is impossible to control or reduce the occurrence, and the recovery cost always exceeds the damage cost. Therefore, quantitative estimation of the damage cost for extreme wind needs to be established beforehand to install proactive countermeasures. In this study, the damage cost for private properties was analyzed based on the data for the past 10 years in Korea. The damage cost curve was also suggested for the metropolitan cities and provinces. The result shows the possibility for the regional application of the damage cost curve because the damage cost of the regional area is estimated based on the cost of cities and provinces.

Keywords: damage cost, extreme wind, natural disaster, private property

Procedia PDF Downloads 249

Authors: Chakrit Chotamonsak, Eric P. Salathé Jr, Jiemjai Kreasuwan

Abstract:

Dynamical downscaling of the ECHAM5 global climate model is applied at 20-km horizontal resolution using the WRF regional climate model (WRF-ECHAM5), to project changes from 1990–2009 to 2045–2064 of temperature and precipitation over the Upper Ping River Basin. The analysis found that monthly changes in daily temperature and precipitation over the basin for the 2045-2064 compared to the 1990-2009 are revealed over the basin all months, with the largest warmer in December and the smallest warmer in February. The future simulated precipitation is smaller than that of the baseline value in May, July and August, while increasing of precipitation is revealed during pre-monsoon (April) and late monsoon (September and October). This means that the rainy season likely becomes longer and less intensified during the rainy season. During the cool-dry season and hot-dry season, precipitation is substantial increasing over the basin. For the annual cycle of changes in daily temperature and precipitation over the upper Ping River basin, the largest warmer in the mean temperature over the basin is 1.93 °C in December and the smallest is 0.77 °C in February. Increase in nighttime temperature (minimum temperature) is larger than that of daytime temperature (maximum temperature) during the dry season, especially in wintertime (November to February), resulted in decreasing the diurnal temperature range. The annual and seasonal changes in daily temperature and precipitation averaged over the basin. The annual mean rising are 1.43, 1.54 and 1.30 °C for mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature, respectively. The increasing of maximum temperature is larger than that of minimum temperature in all months during the dry season (November to April).

Keywords: climate change, regional climate model, upper Ping River basin, WRF

Procedia PDF Downloads 335

Authors: Thabo M. Bafitlhile, Adewole Oladele

Abstract:

Botswana has been affected by floods since long ago and is still experiencing this tragic event. Flooding occurs mostly in the North-West, North-East, and parts of Central district due to heavy rainfalls experienced in these areas. The torrential rains destroyed homes, roads, flooded dams, fields and destroyed livestock and livelihoods. Palapye is one area in the central district that has been experiencing floods ever since 1995 when its greatest flood on record occurred. Heavy storms result in floods and inundation; this has been exacerbated by poor and absence of drainage structures. Since floods are a part of nature, they have existed and will to continue to exist, hence more destruction. Furthermore floods and highway plays major role in erosion and destruction of roads structures. Already today, many culverts, trenches, and other drainage facilities lack the capacity to deal with current frequency for extreme flows. Future changes in the pattern of hydro climatic events will have implications for the design and maintenance costs of roads. Increase in rainfall and severe weather events can affect the demand for emergent responses. Therefore flood forecasting and warning is a prerequisite for successful mitigation of flood damage. In flood prone areas like Palapye, preventive measures should be taken to reduce possible adverse effects of floods on the environment including road structures. Therefore this paper attempts to estimate return periods associated with huge storms of different magnitude from recorded historical rainfall depth using statistical method. The method of annual maxima was used to select data sets for the rainfall analysis. In the statistical method, the Type 1 extreme value (Gumbel), Log Normal, Log Pearson 3 distributions were all applied to the annual maximum series for Palapye area to produce IDF curves. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Chi Squared were used to confirm the appropriateness of fitted distributions for the location and the data do fit the distributions used to predict expected frequencies. This will be a beneficial tool for urgent flood forecasting and water resource administration as proper drainage design will be design based on the estimated flood events and will help to reclaim and protect the road structures from adverse impacts of flood.

Keywords: drainage, estimate, evaluation, floods, flood forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 330