Search results for: exponential distribution
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5183

Search results for: exponential distribution

5063 Temperature Distribution Simulation of Divergent Fluid Flow with Helical Arrangement

Authors: Ehan Sabah Shukri, Wirachman Wisnoe

Abstract:

Numerical study is performed to investigate the temperature distribution in an annular diffuser fitted with helical tape hub. Different pitches (Y = 20 mm, and Y = 30 mm) for the helical tape are studied with different heights (H = 20 mm, 22 mm, and 24 mm) to be compared. The geometry of the annular diffuser and the inlet condition for both hub arrangements are kept constant. The result obtains that using helical tape insert with different pitches and different heights will force the temperature to distribute in a helical direction; however the use of helical tape hub with height (H = 22 mm) for both pitches enhance the temperature distribution in a good manner.

Keywords: helical tape, divergent fluid flow, temperature distribution, swirl flow, CFD

Procedia PDF Downloads 415
5062 Design and Simulation of Variable Air Volume Air Conditioning System Based on Improved Sliding Mode Control

Authors: Abbas Anser, Ahmad Irfan

Abstract:

The main purpose of the VAV (Variable Air Volume) in Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system is to reduce energy consumption and make the buildings comfortable for the occupants. For better performance of the air conditioning system, different control techniques have been developed. In this paper, an Improved Sliding Mode Control (ISMC), based on Power Rate Exponential Reaching Law (PRERL), has been implemented on a VAV air conditioning system. Through the proposed technique, fast response and robustness have been achieved. To verify the efficacy of ISMC, a comparison of the suggested control technique has been made with Exponential Reaching Law (ERL) based SMC. And secondly, chattering, which is unfavorable as it deteriorates the mechanical parts of the air conditioning system by the continuous movement of the mechanical parts and consequently it increases the energy loss in the air conditioning system, has been alleviated. MATLAB/SIMULINK results show the effectiveness of the utilized scheme, which ensures the enhancement of the energy efficiency of the VAV air conditioning system.

Keywords: PID, SMC, HVAC, PRERL, feedback linearization, VAV, chattering

Procedia PDF Downloads 89
5061 Evaluating Reliability Indices in 3 Critical Feeders at Lorestan Electric Power Distribution Company

Authors: Atefeh Pourshafie, Homayoun Bakhtiari

Abstract:

The main task of power distribution companies is to supply the power required by customers in an acceptable level of quality and reliability. Some key performance indicators for electric power distribution companies are those evaluating the continuity of supply within the network. More than other problems, power outages (due to lightning, flood, fire, earthquake, etc.) challenge economy and business. In addition, end users expect a reliable power supply. Reliability indices are evaluated on an annual basis by the specialized holding company of Tavanir (Power Produce, Transmission& distribution company of Iran) . Evaluation of reliability indices is essential for distribution companies, and with regard to the privatization of distribution companies, it will be of particular importance to evaluate these indices and to plan for their improvement in a not too distant future. According to IEEE-1366 standard, there are too many indices; however, the most common reliability indices include SAIFI, SAIDI and CAIDI. These indices describe the period and frequency of blackouts in the reporting period (annual or any desired timeframe). This paper calculates reliability indices for three sample feeders in Lorestan Electric Power Distribution Company and defines the threshold values in a ten-month period. At the end, strategies are introduced to reach the threshold values in order to increase customers' satisfaction.

Keywords: power, distribution network, reliability, outage

Procedia PDF Downloads 433
5060 Developed CNN Model with Various Input Scale Data Evaluation for Bearing Faults Prognostics

Authors: Anas H. Aljemely, Jianping Xuan

Abstract:

Rolling bearing fault diagnosis plays a pivotal issue in the rotating machinery of modern manufacturing. In this research, a raw vibration signal and improved deep learning method for bearing fault diagnosis are proposed. The multi-dimensional scales of raw vibration signals are selected for evaluation condition monitoring system, and the deep learning process has shown its effectiveness in fault diagnosis. In the proposed method, employing an Exponential linear unit (ELU) layer in a convolutional neural network (CNN) that conducts the identical function on positive data, an exponential nonlinearity on negative inputs, and a particular convolutional operation to extract valuable features. The identification results show the improved method has achieved the highest accuracy with a 100-dimensional scale and increase the training and testing speed.

Keywords: bearing fault prognostics, developed CNN model, multiple-scale evaluation, deep learning features

Procedia PDF Downloads 158
5059 Optimal Mitigation of Slopes by Probabilistic Methods

Authors: D. De-León-Escobedo, D. J. Delgado-Hernández, S. Pérez

Abstract:

A probabilistic formulation to assess the slopes safety under the hazard of strong storms is presented and illustrated through a slope in Mexico. The formulation is based on the classical safety factor (SF) used in practice to appraise the slope stability, but it is introduced the treatment of uncertainties, and the slope failure probability is calculated as the probability that SF<1. As the main hazard is the rainfall on the area, statistics of rainfall intensity and duration are considered and modeled with an exponential distribution. The expected life-cycle cost is assessed by considering a monetary value on the slope failure consequences. Alternative mitigation measures are simulated, and the formulation is used to get the measures driving to the optimal one (minimum life-cycle costs). For the example, the optimal mitigation measure is the reduction on the slope inclination angle.

Keywords: expected life-cycle cost, failure probability, slopes failure, storms

Procedia PDF Downloads 119
5058 Variations in the Frequency-Magnitude Distribution with Depth in Kalabsha Area, Aswan, South Egypt

Authors: Ezzat Mohamed El-Amin

Abstract:

Mapping the earthquake-size distribution in various tectonic regimes on a local to regional scale reveals statistically significant variations in the range of at least 0.4 to 2.0 for the b-value in the frequency-magnitude distribution. We map the earthquake frequency–magnitude distribution (b value) as a function of depth in the Reservoir Triggered Seismicity (RTS) region in Kalabsha region, in south Egypt. About 1680 well-located events recorded during 1981–2014 in the Kalabsha region are selected for the analysis. The earthquake data sets are separated in 5 km zones from 0 to 25 km depth. The result shows a systematic decrease in b value up to 12 km followed by an increase. The increase in b value is interpreted to be caused by the presence of fluids. We also investigate the spatial distribution of b value with depth. Significant variations in the b value are detected, with b ranging from b 0.7 to 1.19. Low b value areas at 5 km depth indicate localized high stresses which are favorable for future rupture.

Keywords: seismicity, frequency-magnitude, b-value, earthquake

Procedia PDF Downloads 527
5057 A Comparative Study between Ionic Wind and Conventional Fan

Authors: J. R. Lee, E. V. Lau

Abstract:

Ionic wind is developed when high voltage is supplied to an anode and a grounded cathode in a gaseous medium. This paper studies the ionic wind profile with different anode configurations, the relationship between electrode gap against the voltage supplied and finally a comparison of the heat transfer coefficient of ionic wind over a horizontal flat plate against a conventional fan experimentally. It is observed that increase in the distance between electrodes decreases at a rate of 1-e-0.0206x as the voltage supply is increased until a distance of 3.1536cm. It is also observed that the wind speed produced by ionic wind is stronger, 2.7ms-1 at 2W compared to conventional fan, 2.5ms-1 at 2W but the wind produced decays at a fast exponential rate and is more localized as compared to conventional fan wind that decays at a slower exponential rate and is less localized. Next, it is found out that the ionic wind profile is the same regardless of the position of the anode relative to the cathode. Lastly, it is discovered that ionic wind produced a heat transfer coefficient that is almost 1.6 times higher compared to a conventional fan with Nusselt number reaching 164 compared to 102 for conventional fan.

Keywords: conventional fan, heat transfer, ionic wind, wind profile

Procedia PDF Downloads 285
5056 Bi-Objective Optimization for Sustainable Supply Chain Network Design in Omnichannel

Authors: Veerpaul Maan, Gaurav Mishra

Abstract:

The evolution of omnichannel has revolutionized the supply chain of the organizations by enhancing customer shopping experience. For these organizations need to develop well-integrated multiple distribution channels to leverage the benefits of omnichannel. To adopt an omnichannel system in the supply chain has resulted in structuring and reconfiguring the practices of the traditional supply chain distribution network. In this paper a multiple distribution supply chain network (MDSCN) have been proposed which integrates online giants with a local retailers distribution network in uncertain environment followed by sustainability. To incorporate sustainability, an additional objective function is added to reduce the carbon content through minimizing the travel distance of the product. Through this proposed model, customers are free to access product and services as per their choice of channels which increases their convenience, reach and satisfaction. Further, a numerical illustration is being shown along with interpretation of results to validate the proposed model.

Keywords: sustainable supply chain network, omnichannel, multiple distribution supply chain network, integrate multiple distribution channels

Procedia PDF Downloads 181
5055 3D Numerical Simulation on Annular Diffuser Temperature Distribution Enhancement by Different Twist Arrangement

Authors: Ehan Sabah Shukri, Wirachman Wisnoe

Abstract:

The influence of twist arrangement on the temperature distribution in an annular diffuser fitted with twisted rectangular hub is investigated. Different pitches (Y = 120 mm, 100 mm, 80 mm, and 60 mm) for the twist arrangements are simulated to be compared. The geometry of the annular diffuser and the inlet condition for the hub arrangements are kept constant. The result reveals that using twisted rectangular hub insert with different pitches will force the temperature to distribute in a circular direction. However, temperature distribution will be enhanced with the length pitch increases.

Keywords: numerical simulation, twist arrangement, annular diffuser, temperature distribution, swirl flow, pitches

Procedia PDF Downloads 378
5054 An Estimating Parameter of the Mean in Normal Distribution by Maximum Likelihood, Bayes, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

Abstract:

This paper is to compare the parameter estimation of the mean in normal distribution by Maximum Likelihood (ML), Bayes, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The ML estimator is estimated by the average of data, the Bayes method is considered from the prior distribution to estimate Bayes estimator, and MCMC estimator is approximated by Gibbs sampling from posterior distribution. These methods are also to estimate a parameter then the hypothesis testing is used to check a robustness of the estimators. Data are simulated from normal distribution with the true parameter of mean 2, and variance 4, 9, and 16 when the sample sizes is set as 10, 20, 30, and 50. From the results, it can be seen that the estimation of MLE, and MCMC are perceivably different from the true parameter when the sample size is 10 and 20 with variance 16. Furthermore, the Bayes estimator is estimated from the prior distribution when mean is 1, and variance is 12 which showed the significant difference in mean with variance 9 at the sample size 10 and 20.

Keywords: Bayes method, Markov chain Monte Carlo method, maximum likelihood method, normal distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 320
5053 Power of Doubling: Population Growth and Resource Consumption

Authors: Sarika Bahadure

Abstract:

Sustainability starts with conserving resources for future generations. Since human’s existence on this earth, he has been consuming natural resources. The resource consumption pace in the past was very slow, but industrialization in 18th century brought a change in the human lifestyle. New inventions and discoveries upgraded the human workforce to machines. The mass manufacture of goods provided easy access to products. In the last few decades, the globalization and change in technologies brought consumer oriented market. The consumption of resources has increased at a very high scale. This overconsumption pattern brought economic boom and provided multiple opportunities, but it also put stress on the natural resources. This paper tries to put forth the facts and figures of the population growth and consumption of resources with examples. This is explained with the help of the mathematical expression of doubling known as exponential growth. It compares the carrying capacity of the earth and resource consumption of humans’ i.e. ecological footprint and bio-capacity. Further, it presents the need to conserve natural resources and re-examine sustainable resource use approach for sustainability.

Keywords: consumption, exponential growth, population, resources, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 194
5052 Mechanical and Thermal Stresses in A Functionally Graded Cylinders

Authors: Ali Kurşun, Emre Kara, Erhan Çetin, Şafak Aksoy, Ahmet Kesimli

Abstract:

In this study, thermal elastic stress distribution occurred on long hollow cylinders made of functionally graded material (FGM) was analytically defined under thermal, mechanical and thermo mechanical loads. In closed form solutions for elastic stresses and displacements are obtained analytically by using the infinitesimal deformation theory of elasticity. It was assumed that elasticity modulus, thermal expansion coefficient and density of cylinder materials could change in terms of an exponential function as for that Poisson’s ratio was constant. A gradient parameter n is chosen between - 1 and 1. When n equals to zero, the disc becomes isotropic. Circumferential, radial and longitudinal stresses in the FGMs cylinders are depicted in the figures. As a result, the gradient parameters have great effects on the stress systems of FGMs cylinders.

Keywords: functionally graded materials, thermoelasticity, thermomechanical load, hollow cylinder.

Procedia PDF Downloads 420
5051 Temperature Distribution Control for Baby Incubator System Using Arduino AT Mega 2560

Authors: W. Widhiada, D. N. K. P. Negara, P. A. Suryawan

Abstract:

The technological advances in the field of health to be very important, especially on the safety of the baby. In this case a lot of premature infants death caused by poorly managed health facilities. Mostly the death of premature baby caused by bacteria since the temperature around the baby is not normal. Related to this, the incubator equipment needs to be important, especially in how to control the temperature in incubator. On/Off controls is used to regulate the temperature distribution in the incubator so that the desired temperature is 36 °C to stay awake and stable. The authors have been observed and analyzed the data to determine the temperature distribution in the incubator using program of MATLAB/Simulink. The output temperature distribution is obtained at 36 °C in 400 seconds using an Arduino AT 2560. This incubator is able to maintain an ambient temperature and maintain the baby's body temperature within normal limits and keep the moisture in the air in accordance with the limit values required in infant incubator.

Keywords: on/off control, distribution temperature, Arduino AT 2560, baby incubator

Procedia PDF Downloads 449
5050 The Normal-Generalized Hyperbolic Secant Distribution: Properties and Applications

Authors: Hazem M. Al-Mofleh

Abstract:

In this paper, a new four-parameter univariate continuous distribution called the Normal-Generalized Hyperbolic Secant Distribution (NGHS) is defined and studied. Some general and structural distributional properties are investigated and discussed, including: central and non-central n-th moments and incomplete moments, quantile and generating functions, hazard function, Rényi and Shannon entropies, shapes: skewed right, skewed left, and symmetric, modality regions: unimodal and bimodal, maximum likelihood (MLE) estimators for the parameters. Finally, two real data sets are used to demonstrate empirically its flexibility and prove the strength of the new distribution.

Keywords: bimodality, estimation, hazard function, moments, Shannon’s entropy

Procedia PDF Downloads 300
5049 Brake Force Distribution in Passenger Cars

Authors: Boukhris Lahouari, Bouchetara Mostefa

Abstract:

The active safety of a vehicle is mainly influenced by the properties of the installed braking system. With the increase in road traffic density and travel speeds, increasingly stringent requirements are placed on the vehicle's behaviour during braking. The achievable decelerations are limited by the physical aspect characterized by the coefficient of friction between the tires and the ground. As a result, it follows that an optimized distribution of braking forces becomes necessary for a better use of friction coefficients. This objective could only be achieved if sufficient knowledge is available on the theory of vehicle dynamics during braking and on current standards for the approval of braking systems. These will facilitate the development of a braking force calculation algorithm that will enable an optimized distribution of braking forces to be achieved. Operating safety is conditioned by the requirements of efficiency, progressiveness, regularity or fidelity of a braking system without obviously neglecting the recommendations imposed by the legislator.

Keywords: brake force distribution, distribution diagram, friction coefficient, brake by wire

Procedia PDF Downloads 36
5048 Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of Forced Vibrations in Micro-Scale Microstretch Thermoelastic Simply Supported Beam

Authors: Geeta Partap, Nitika Chugh

Abstract:

The present paper deals with the flexural vibrations of homogeneous, isotropic, generalized micropolar microstretch thermoelastic thin Euler-Bernoulli beam resonators, due to Exponential time varying load. Both the axial ends of the beam are assumed to be at simply supported conditions. The governing equations have been solved analytically by using Laplace transforms technique twice with respect to time and space variables respectively. The inversion of Laplace transform in time domain has been performed by using the calculus of residues to obtain deflection.The analytical results have been numerically analyzed with the help of MATLAB software for magnesium like material. The graphical representations and interpretations have been discussed for Deflection of beam under Simply Supported boundary condition and for distinct considered values of time and space as well. The obtained results are easy to implement for engineering analysis and designs of resonators (sensors), modulators, actuators.

Keywords: microstretch, deflection, exponential load, Laplace transforms, residue theorem, simply supported

Procedia PDF Downloads 274
5047 Influence of Processing Parameters on the Reliability of Sieving as a Particle Size Distribution Measurements

Authors: Eseldin Keleb

Abstract:

In the pharmaceutical industry particle size distribution is an important parameter for the characterization of pharmaceutical powders. The powder flowability, reactivity and compatibility, which have a decisive impact on the final product, are determined by particle size and size distribution. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of processing parameters on the particle size distribution measurements. Different Size fractions of α-lactose monohydrate and 5% polyvinylpyrrolidone were prepared by wet granulation and were used for the preparation of samples. The influence of sieve load (50, 100, 150, 200, 250, 300, and 350 g), processing time (5, 10, and 15 min), sample size ratios (high percentage of small and large particles), type of disturbances (vibration and shaking) and process reproducibility have been investigated. Results obtained showed that a sieve load of 50 g produce the best separation, a further increase in sample weight resulted in incomplete separation even after the extension of the processing time for 15 min. Performing sieving using vibration was rapider and more efficient than shaking. Meanwhile between day reproducibility showed that particle size distribution measurements are reproducible. However, for samples containing 70% fines or 70% large particles, which processed at optimized parameters, the incomplete separation was always observed. These results indicated that sieving reliability is highly influenced by the particle size distribution of the sample and care must be taken for samples with particle size distribution skewness.

Keywords: sieving, reliability, particle size distribution, processing parameters

Procedia PDF Downloads 571
5046 Examining the Relationship between Chi-Square Test Statistics and Skewness of Weibull Distribution: Simulation Study

Authors: Rafida M. Elobaid

Abstract:

Most of the literature on goodness-of-fit test try to provide a theoretical basis for studying empirical distribution functions. Such goodness-of-fit tests are Kolmogorove-Simirnov and Crumer-Von Mises Type tests. However, it is likely that most of literature has not focused in details on the relationship of the values of the test statistics and skewness or kurtosis. The aim of this study is to investigate the behavior of the values of the χ2 test statistic with the variation of the skewness of right skewed distribution. A simulation study is conducted to generate random numbers from Weibull distribution. For a fixed sample sizes, different levels of skewness are considered, and the corresponding values of the χ2 test statistic are calculated. Using different sample sizes, the results show an inverse relationship between the value of χ2 test and the level of skewness for Wiebull distribution, i.e the value of χ2 test statistic decreases as the value of skewness increases. The research results also show that with large values of skewness we are more confident that the data follows the assumed distribution. Nonparametric Kendall τ test is used to confirm these results.

Keywords: goodness-of-fit test, chi-square test, simulation, continuous right skewed distributions

Procedia PDF Downloads 361
5045 Investigation of the Brake Force Distribution in Passenger Cars

Authors: Boukhris Lahouari, Bouchetara Mostefa

Abstract:

The active safety of a vehicle is mainly influenced by the properties of the installed braking system. With the increase in road traffic density and travel speeds, increasingly stringent requirements are placed on the vehicle's behaviour during braking. The achievable decelerations are limited by the physical aspect characterized by the coefficient of friction between the tires and the ground. As a result, it follows that an optimized distribution of braking forces becomes necessary for a better use of friction coefficients. This objective could only be achieved if sufficient knowledge is available on the theory of vehicle dynamics during braking and on current standards for the approval of braking systems. This will facilitate the development of a braking force calculation algorithm that will enable an optimized distribution of braking forces to be achieved. Operating safety is conditioned by the requirements of efficiency, progressiveness, regularity or fidelity of a braking system without obviously neglecting the recommendations imposed by the legislator.

Keywords: brake force distribution, distribution diagram, friction coefficient, brake by wire

Procedia PDF Downloads 35
5044 The Bernstein Expansion for Exponentials in Taylor Functions: Approximation of Fixed Points

Authors: Tareq Hamadneh, Jochen Merker, Hassan Al-Zoubi

Abstract:

Bernstein's expansion for exponentials in Taylor functions provides lower and upper optimization values for the range of its original function. these values converge to the original functions if the degree is elevated or the domain subdivided. Taylor polynomial can be applied so that the exponential is a polynomial of finite degree over a given domain. Bernstein's basis has two main properties: its sum equals 1, and positive for all x 2 (0; 1). In this work, we prove the existence of fixed points for exponential functions in a given domain using the optimization values of Bernstein. The Bernstein basis of finite degree T over a domain D is defined non-negatively. Any polynomial p of degree t can be expanded into the Bernstein form of maximum degree t ≤ T, where we only need to compute the coefficients of Bernstein in order to optimize the original polynomial. The main property is that p(x) is approximated by the minimum and maximum Bernstein coefficients (Bernstein bound). If the bound is contained in the given domain, then we say that p(x) has fixed points in the same domain.

Keywords: Bernstein polynomials, Stability of control functions, numerical optimization, Taylor function

Procedia PDF Downloads 96
5043 Dynamics of a Reaction-Diffusion Problems Modeling Two Predators Competing for a Prey

Authors: Owolabi Kolade Matthew

Abstract:

In this work, we investigate both the analytical and numerical studies of the dynamical model comprising of three species system. We analyze the linear stability of stationary solutions in the one-dimensional multi-system modeling the interactions of two predators and one prey species. The stability analysis has a lot of implications for understanding the various spatiotemporal and chaotic behaviors of the species in the spatial domain. The analysis results presented have established the possibility of the three interacting species to coexist harmoniously, this feat is achieved by combining the local and global analyzes to determine the global dynamics of the system. In the presence of diffusion, a viable exponential time differencing method is applied to multi-species nonlinear time-dependent partial differential equation to address the points and queries that may naturally arise. The scheme is described in detail, and justified by a number of computational experiments.

Keywords: asymptotically stable, coexistence, exponential time differencing method, global and local stability, predator-prey model, nonlinear, reaction-diffusion system

Procedia PDF Downloads 379
5042 An Exponential Field Path Planning Method for Mobile Robots Integrated with Visual Perception

Authors: Magdy Roman, Mostafa Shoeib, Mostafa Rostom

Abstract:

Global vision, whether provided by overhead fixed cameras, on-board aerial vehicle cameras, or satellite images can always provide detailed information on the environment around mobile robots. In this paper, an intelligent vision-based method of path planning and obstacle avoidance for mobile robots is presented. The method integrates visual perception with a new proposed field-based path-planning method to overcome common path-planning problems such as local minima, unreachable destination and unnecessary lengthy paths around obstacles. The method proposes an exponential angle deviation field around each obstacle that affects the orientation of a close robot. As the robot directs toward, the goal point obstacles are classified into right and left groups, and a deviation angle is exponentially added or subtracted to the orientation of the robot. Exponential field parameters are chosen based on Lyapunov stability criterion to guarantee robot convergence to the destination. The proposed method uses obstacles' shape and location, extracted from global vision system, through a collision prediction mechanism to decide whether to activate or deactivate obstacles field. In addition, a search mechanism is developed in case of robot or goal point is trapped among obstacles to find suitable exit or entrance. The proposed algorithm is validated both in simulation and through experiments. The algorithm shows effectiveness in obstacles' avoidance and destination convergence, overcoming common path planning problems found in classical methods.

Keywords: path planning, collision avoidance, convergence, computer vision, mobile robots

Procedia PDF Downloads 144
5041 A Two Phase VNS Algorithm for the Combined Production Routing Problem

Authors: Nejah Ben Mabrouk, Bassem Jarboui, Habib Chabchoub

Abstract:

Production and distribution planning is the most important part in supply chain management. In this paper, a NP-hard production-distribution problem for one product over a multi-period horizon is investigated. The aim is to minimize the sum of costs of three items: production setups, inventories and distribution, while determining, for each period, the amount produced, the inventory levels and the delivery trips. To solve this difficult problem, we propose a bi-phase approach based on a Variable Neighbourhood Search (VNS). This heuristic is tested on 90 randomly generated instances from the literature, with 20 periods and 50, 100, 200 customers. Computational results show that our approach outperforms existing solution procedures available in the literature

Keywords: logistic, production, distribution, variable neighbourhood search

Procedia PDF Downloads 298
5040 A Trend Based Forecasting Framework of the ATA Method and Its Performance on the M3-Competition Data

Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar

Abstract:

It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.

Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value

Procedia PDF Downloads 146
5039 Reliability and Availability Analysis of Satellite Data Reception System using Reliability Modeling

Authors: Ch. Sridevi, S. P. Shailender Kumar, B. Gurudayal, A. Chalapathi Rao, K. Koteswara Rao, P. Srinivasulu

Abstract:

System reliability and system availability evaluation plays a crucial role in ensuring the seamless operation of complex satellite data reception system with consistent performance for longer periods. This paper presents a novel approach for the same using a case study on one of the antenna systems at satellite data reception ground station in India. The methodology involves analyzing system's components, their failure rates, system's architecture, generation of logical reliability block diagram model and estimating the reliability of the system using the component level mean time between failures considering exponential distribution to derive a baseline estimate of the system's reliability. The model is then validated with collected system level field failure data from the operational satellite data reception systems that includes failure occurred, failure time, criticality of the failure and repair times by using statistical techniques like median rank, regression and Weibull analysis to extract meaningful insights regarding failure patterns and practical reliability of the system and to assess the accuracy of the developed reliability model. The study mainly focused on identification of critical units within the system, which are prone to failures and have a significant impact on overall performance and brought out a reliability model of the identified critical unit. This model takes into account the interdependencies among system components and their impact on overall system reliability and provides valuable insights into the performance of the system to understand the Improvement or degradation of the system over a period of time and will be the vital input to arrive at the optimized design for future development. It also provides a plug and play framework to understand the effect on performance of the system in case of any up gradations or new designs of the unit. It helps in effective planning and formulating contingency plans to address potential system failures, ensuring the continuity of operations. Furthermore, to instill confidence in system users, the duration for which the system can operate continuously with the desired level of 3 sigma reliability was estimated that turned out to be a vital input to maintenance plan. System availability and station availability was also assessed by considering scenarios of clash and non-clash to determine the overall system performance and potential bottlenecks. Overall, this paper establishes a comprehensive methodology for reliability and availability analysis of complex satellite data reception systems. The results derived from this approach facilitate effective planning contingency measures, and provide users with confidence in system performance and enables decision-makers to make informed choices about system maintenance, upgrades and replacements. It also aids in identifying critical units and assessing system availability in various scenarios and helps in minimizing downtime and optimizing resource allocation.

Keywords: exponential distribution, reliability modeling, reliability block diagram, satellite data reception system, system availability, weibull analysis

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5038 A Unification and Relativistic Correction for Boltzmann’s Law

Authors: Lloyd G. Allred

Abstract:

The distribution of velocities of particles in plasma is a well understood discipline of plasma physics. Boltzmann’s law and the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution describe the distribution of velocity of a particle in plasma as a function of mass and temperature. Particles with the same mass tend to have the same velocity. By expressing the same law in terms of energy alone, the author obtains a distribution independent of mass. In summary, for particles in plasma, the energies tend to equalize, independent of the masses of the individual particles. For high-energy plasma, the original law predicts velocities greater than the speed of light. If one uses Einstein’s formula for energy (E=mc2), then a relativistic correction is not required.

Keywords: cosmology, EMP, plasma physics, relativity

Procedia PDF Downloads 185
5037 Development of Value Based Planning Methodology Incorporating Risk Assessment for Power Distribution Network

Authors: Asnawi Mohd Busrah, Au Mau Teng, Tan Chin Hooi, Lau Chee Chong

Abstract:

This paper describes value based planning (VBP) methodology incorporating risk assessment as an enhanced and more practical approach to evaluate distribution network projects in Peninsular Malaysia. Assessment indicators associated with economics, performance and risks are formulated to evaluate distribution projects to quantify their benefits against investment. The developed methodology is implemented in a web-based software customized to capture investment and network data, compute assessment indicators and rank the proposed projects according to their benefits. Value based planning approach addresses economic factors in the power distribution planning assessment, so as to minimize cost solution to the power utility while at the same time provide maximum benefits to customers.

Keywords: value based planning, distribution network, value of loss load (VoLL), energy not served (ENS)

Procedia PDF Downloads 447
5036 Comparison between Continuous Genetic Algorithms and Particle Swarm Optimization for Distribution Network Reconfiguration

Authors: Linh Nguyen Tung, Anh Truong Viet, Nghien Nguyen Ba, Chuong Trinh Trong

Abstract:

This paper proposes a reconfiguration methodology based on a continuous genetic algorithm (CGA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) for minimizing active power loss and minimizing voltage deviation. Both algorithms are adapted using graph theory to generate feasible individuals, and the modified crossover is used for continuous variable of CGA. To demonstrate the performance and effectiveness of the proposed methods, a comparative analysis of CGA with PSO for network reconfiguration, on 33-node and 119-bus radial distribution system is presented. The simulation results have shown that both CGA and PSO can be used in the distribution network reconfiguration and CGA outperformed PSO with significant success rate in finding optimal distribution network configuration.

Keywords: distribution network reconfiguration, particle swarm optimization, continuous genetic algorithm, power loss reduction, voltage deviation

Procedia PDF Downloads 139
5035 A Mutually Exclusive Task Generation Method Based on Data Augmentation

Authors: Haojie Wang, Xun Li, Rui Yin

Abstract:

In order to solve the memorization overfitting in the meta-learning MAML algorithm, a method of generating mutually exclusive tasks based on data augmentation is proposed. This method generates a mutex task by corresponding one feature of the data to multiple labels, so that the generated mutex task is inconsistent with the data distribution in the initial dataset. Because generating mutex tasks for all data will produce a large number of invalid data and, in the worst case, lead to exponential growth of computation, this paper also proposes a key data extraction method, that only extracts part of the data to generate the mutex task. The experiments show that the method of generating mutually exclusive tasks can effectively solve the memorization overfitting in the meta-learning MAML algorithm.

Keywords: data augmentation, mutex task generation, meta-learning, text classification.

Procedia PDF Downloads 58
5034 Designing an Intelligent Voltage Instability System in Power Distribution Systems in the Philippines Using IEEE 14 Bus Test System

Authors: Pocholo Rodriguez, Anne Bernadine Ocampo, Ian Benedict Chan, Janric Micah Gray

Abstract:

The state of an electric power system may be classified as either stable or unstable. The borderline of stability is at any condition for which a slight change in an unfavourable direction of any pertinent quantity will cause instability. Voltage instability in power distribution systems could lead to voltage collapse and thus power blackouts. The researchers will present an intelligent system using back propagation algorithm that can detect voltage instability and output voltage of a power distribution and classify it as stable or unstable. The researchers’ work is the use of parameters involved in voltage instability as input parameters to the neural network for training and testing purposes that can provide faster detection and monitoring of the power distribution system.

Keywords: back-propagation algorithm, load instability, neural network, power distribution system

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