Search results for: edgeworth expansion

Authors: Kuldeep Rawat, Michael O'Shea, Maureen McGough

Abstract:

The paper will discuss a National Institute of Justice (NIJ) funded project to provide cost-effective aviation technologies and research to support counter-poaching operations related to endangered, protected, and/or regulated wildlife. The goal of this project is to provide cost-effective aviation technology and research support to Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) in their counter-poaching efforts. In pursuit of this goal, Elizabeth City State University (ECSU) is assisting the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) in enhancing the Kenya Wildlife Service’s aviation technology and related capacity to meet its counter-poaching mission. Poaching, at its core, is systemic as poachers go to the most extreme lengths to kill high target species such as elephant and rhino. These high target wildlife species live in underdeveloped or impoverished nations, where poachers find fewer barriers to their operations. In Kenya, with fifty-nine (59) parks and reserves, spread over an area of 225,830 square miles (584,897 square kilometers) adequate surveillance on the ground is next to impossible. Cost-effective aviation surveillance technologies, based on a comprehensive needs assessment and operational evaluation, are needed to curb poaching and effectively prevent wildlife trafficking. As one of the premier law enforcement Air Wings in East Africa, KWS plays a crucial role in Kenya, not only in counter-poaching and wildlife conservation efforts, but in aerial surveillance, counterterrorism and national security efforts as well. While the Air Wing has done, a remarkable job conducting aerial patrols with limited resources, additional aircraft and upgraded technology should significantly advance the Air Wing’s ability to achieve its wildlife protection mission. The project includes: (i) Needs Assessment of the KWS Air Wing, to include the identification of resources, current and prospective capacity, operational challenges and priority goals for expansion, (ii) Acquisition of Low-Cost Aviation Technology to meet priority needs, and (iii) Operational Evaluation of technology performance, with a focus on implementation and effectiveness. The Needs Assessment reflects the priorities identified through two site visits to the KWS Air Wing in Nairobi, Kenya, as well as field visits to multiple national parks receiving aerial support and interviewing/surveying KWS Air wing pilots and leadership. Needs Assessment identified some immediate technology needs that includes, GPS with upgrades, including weather application, Night flying capabilities, to include runway lights and night vision technology, Cameras and surveillance equipment, Flight tracking system and/or Emergency Position Indicating Radio Beacon, Lightweight ballistic-resistant body armor, and medical equipment, to include a customized stretcher and standard medical evacuation equipment. Results of this assessment, along with significant input from the KWS Air Wing, will guide the second phase of this project: technology acquisition. Acquired technology will then be evaluated in the field, with a focus on implementation and effectiveness. Results will ultimately be translated for any rural or tribal law enforcement agencies with comparable aerial surveillance missions and operational environments, and jurisdictional challenges, seeking to implement low-cost aviation technology. Results from Needs Assessment phase, including survey results and our ongoing technology acquisition and baseline operational evaluation will be discussed in the paper.

Keywords: aerial surveillance mission, aviation technology, counter-poaching, wildlife protection

Procedia PDF Downloads 251

Authors: Jeremie Coullon, Robert J. Webber

Abstract:

We introduce a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sam-pler for infinite-dimensional inverse problems. Our sam-pler is based on the affine invariant ensemble sampler, which uses interacting walkers to adapt to the covariance structure of the target distribution. We extend this ensem-ble sampler for the first time to infinite-dimensional func-tion spaces, yielding a highly efficient gradient-free MCMC algorithm. Because our ensemble sampler does not require gradients or posterior covariance estimates, it is simple to implement and broadly applicable. In many Bayes-ian inverse problems, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) meth-ods are needed to approximate distributions on infinite-dimensional function spaces, for example, in groundwater flow, medical imaging, and traffic flow. Yet designing efficient MCMC methods for function spaces has proved challenging. Recent gradi-ent-based MCMC methods preconditioned MCMC methods, and SMC methods have improved the computational efficiency of functional random walk. However, these samplers require gradi-ents or posterior covariance estimates that may be challenging to obtain. Calculating gradients is difficult or impossible in many high-dimensional inverse problems involving a numerical integra-tor with a black-box code base. Additionally, accurately estimating posterior covariances can require a lengthy pilot run or adaptation period. These concerns raise the question: is there a functional sampler that outperforms functional random walk without requir-ing gradients or posterior covariance estimates? To address this question, we consider a gradient-free sampler that avoids explicit covariance estimation yet adapts naturally to the covariance struc-ture of the sampled distribution. This sampler works by consider-ing an ensemble of walkers and interpolating and extrapolating between walkers to make a proposal. This is called the affine in-variant ensemble sampler (AIES), which is easy to tune, easy to parallelize, and efficient at sampling spaces of moderate dimen-sionality (less than 20). The main contribution of this work is to propose a functional ensemble sampler (FES) that combines func-tional random walk and AIES. To apply this sampler, we first cal-culate the Karhunen–Loeve (KL) expansion for the Bayesian prior distribution, assumed to be Gaussian and trace-class. Then, we use AIES to sample the posterior distribution on the low-wavenumber KL components and use the functional random walk to sample the posterior distribution on the high-wavenumber KL components. Alternating between AIES and functional random walk updates, we obtain our functional ensemble sampler that is efficient and easy to use without requiring detailed knowledge of the target dis-tribution. In past work, several authors have proposed splitting the Bayesian posterior into low-wavenumber and high-wavenumber components and then applying enhanced sampling to the low-wavenumber components. Yet compared to these other samplers, FES is unique in its simplicity and broad applicability. FES does not require any derivatives, and the need for derivative-free sam-plers has previously been emphasized. FES also eliminates the requirement for posterior covariance estimates. Lastly, FES is more efficient than other gradient-free samplers in our tests. In two nu-merical examples, we apply FES to challenging inverse problems that involve estimating a functional parameter and one or more scalar parameters. We compare the performance of functional random walk, FES, and an alternative derivative-free sampler that explicitly estimates the posterior covariance matrix. We conclude that FES is the fastest available gradient-free sampler for these challenging and multimodal test problems.

Keywords: Bayesian inverse problems, Markov chain Monte Carlo, infinite-dimensional inverse problems, dimensionality reduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Federica Verna, Alessandra Pautasso, Maria Caramelli, Cristiana Maurella, Walter Mignone, Cristina Casalone

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Mosquito-Borne Diseases (MBDs) are dangerously increasing in prevalence, geographical distribution and severity, representing an emerging threat for both humans and animals. Interaction between multiple disciplines is needed for an effective early warning, surveillance and control of MBDs, according to the One Health concept. This work reports the integrated surveillance system enforced by IZSPLV in Piedmont, Liguria and Valle d’Aosta regions (Northwestern Italy) in order to control MDBs spread. Veterinary services and local human health authority are involved in an information network, to connect the surveillance of human clinical cases with entomological surveillance and veterinary monitoring in order to implement control measures in case of outbreak. A systematic entomological surveillance is carried out during the vector season using mosquitoes traps located in sites selected according to risk factors. Collected mosquitoes are counted, identified to species level by morphological standard classification keys and pooled by collection site, date and species with a maximum of 100 individuals. Pools are analyzed, after RNA extraction, by Real Time RT-PCR distinctive for West Nile Virus (WNV) Lineage 1 and Lineage 2, Real Time RT-PCR USUTU virus (USUV) and a traditional flavivirus End-point RT-PCR. Positive pools are sequenced and the related sequences employed to perform a basic local alignment search tool (BLAST) in the GenBank library. Positive samples are sent to the National Reference Centre for Animal Exotic Diseases (CESME, Teramo) for confirmation. With particular reference to WNV, after the confirmation, as provided by national legislation, control measures involving both local veterinary and human health services are activated: equine sera are randomly sampled within a 4 km radius from the positive collection sites and tested with ELISA kit and WNV NAT screening of blood donors is introduced. This surveillance network allowed to detect since 2011 USUV circulation in this area of Italy. WNV was detected in Piedmont and Liguria for the first time in 2014 in mosquitoes. During the 2015 vector season, we observed the expansion of its activity in Piedmont. The virus was detected in almost all Provinces both in mosquitoes (6 pools) and animals (19 equine sera, 4 birds). No blood bag tested resulted infected. The first neuroinvasive human case occurred too. Competent authorities should be aware of a potentially increased risk of MBDs activity during the 2016 vector season. This work shows that this surveillance network allowed to early detect the presence of MBDs in humans and animals, and provided useful information to public authorities, in order to apply control measures. Finally, an additional value of our diagnostic protocol is the ability to detect all viruses belonging to the Flaviviridae family, considering the emergence caused by other Flaviviruses in humans such as the recent Zika virus infection in South America. Italy has climatic and environmental features conducive to Zika virus transmission, the competent vector and many travellers from Brazil reported every year.

Keywords: integrated surveillance, mosquito borne disease, West Nile virus, Zika virus

Procedia PDF Downloads 330

Authors: Nathan Garcia

Abstract:

The polarizing dialogue of contemporary political America results from core philosophical differences. But these differences are beyond ideological and reach metaphysical distinction. Good intellectual historians have theorized that fundamental concepts such as freedom, God, and nature have been sterilized of their intellectual vigor. They are partially correct. 19th-century pragmatist Charles Sanders Peirce offers a penetrating philosophy which can yield greater insight into the contemporary political divide. Peirce argues that metaphysical and ethical issues are derivative of operational logic. His triadic logical structure and ensuing metaphysical principles constructed therefrom is contemporaneously applicable for three reasons. First, Peirce’s logic aptly scrutinizes the logical processes of liberal and conservative mindsets. Each group arrives at a cosmological root metaphor (abduction), resulting in a contemporary assessment (deduction), ultimately prompting attempts to verify the original abduction (induction). Peirce’s system demonstrates that liberal citizens develop a cosmological root metaphor in the concept of fairness (abduction), resulting in a contemporary assessment of, for example, underrepresented communities being unfairly preyed upon (deduction), thereby inciting anger toward traditional socio-political structures suspected of purposefully destabilizing minority communities (induction). Similarly, conservative citizens develop a cosmological root metaphor in the concept of freedom (abduction), resulting in a contemporary assessment of, for example, liberal citizens advocating an expansion of governmental powers (deduction), thereby inciting anger towards liberal communities suspected of attacking freedoms of ordinary Americans in a bid to empower their interests through the government (induction). The value of this triadic assessment is the categorization of distinct types of inferential logic by their purpose and boundaries. Only deductive claims can be concretely proven, while abductive claims are merely preliminary hypotheses, and inductive claims are accountable to interdisciplinary oversight. Liberals and conservative logical processes preclude constructive dialogue because of (a) an unshared abductive framework, and (b) misunderstanding the rules and responsibilities of their types of claims. Second, Peircean metaphysical principles offer a greater summary of the contemporaneously divisive political climate. His insights can weed through the partisan theorizing to unravel the underlying philosophical problems. Corrosive nominalistic and essentialistic presuppositions weaken the ability to share experiences and communicate effectively, both requisite for any promising constructive dialogue. Peirce’s pragmatist system can expose and evade fallacious thinking in pursuit of a refreshing alternative framework. Finally, Peirce’s metaphysical foundation enables a logically coherent, scientifically informed orthopraxis well-suited for American dialogue. His logical structure necessitates radically different anthropology conducive to shared experiences and dialogue within a dynamic, cultural continuum. Pierce’s fallibilism and sensitivity to religious sentiment successfully navigate between liberal and conservative values. In sum, he provides a normative paradigm for intranational dialogue that privileges individual experience and values morally defensible notions of freedom, God, and nature. Utilizing Peirce’s thought will yield fruitful analysis and offers a promising philosophical alternative for framing and engaging in contemporary American political discourse.

Keywords: Charles s. Peirce, american politics, logic, pragmatism

Procedia PDF Downloads 83