Search results for: distribution networks
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7304

Search results for: distribution networks

1634 Software Development for Both Small Wind Performance Optimization and Structural Compliance Analysis with International Safety Regulations

Authors: K. M. Yoo, M. H. Kang

Abstract:

Conventional commercial wind turbine design software is limited to large wind turbines due to not incorporating with low Reynold’s Number aerodynamic characteristics typically for small wind turbines. To extract maximum annual energy product from an intermediately designed small wind turbine associated with measured wind data, numerous simulation is highly recommended to have a best fitting planform design with proper airfoil configuration. Since depending upon wind distribution with average wind speed, an optimal wind turbine planform design changes accordingly. It is theoretically not difficult, though, it is very inconveniently time-consuming design procedure to finalize conceptual layout of a desired small wind turbine. Thus, to help simulations easier and faster, a GUI software is developed to conveniently iterate and change airfoil types, wind data, and geometric blade data as well. With magnetic generator torque curve, peak power tracking simulation is also available to better match with the magnetic generator. Small wind turbine often lacks starting torque due to blade optimization. Thus this simulation is also embedded along with yaw design. This software provides various blade cross section details at user’s design convenience such as skin thickness control with fiber direction option, spar shape, and their material properties. Since small wind turbine is under international safety regulations with fatigue damage during normal operations and safety load analyses with ultimate excessive loads, load analyses are provided with each category mandated in the safety regulations.

Keywords: GUI software, Low Reynold’s number aerodynamics, peak power tracking, safety regulations, wind turbine performance optimization

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1633 Structural Damage Detection Using Modal Data Employing Teaching Learning Based Optimization

Authors: Subhajit Das, Nirjhar Dhang

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Structural damage detection is a challenging work in the field of structural health monitoring (SHM). The damage detection methods mainly focused on the determination of the location and severity of the damage. Model updating is a well known method to locate and quantify the damage. In this method, an error function is defined in terms of difference between the signal measured from ‘experiment’ and signal obtained from undamaged finite element model. This error function is minimised with a proper algorithm, and the finite element model is updated accordingly to match the measured response. Thus, the damage location and severity can be identified from the updated model. In this paper, an error function is defined in terms of modal data viz. frequencies and modal assurance criteria (MAC). MAC is derived from Eigen vectors. This error function is minimized by teaching-learning-based optimization (TLBO) algorithm, and the finite element model is updated accordingly to locate and quantify the damage. Damage is introduced in the model by reduction of stiffness of the structural member. The ‘experimental’ data is simulated by the finite element modelling. The error due to experimental measurement is introduced in the synthetic ‘experimental’ data by adding random noise, which follows Gaussian distribution. The efficiency and robustness of this method are explained through three examples e.g., one truss, one beam and one frame problem. The result shows that TLBO algorithm is efficient to detect the damage location as well as the severity of damage using modal data.

Keywords: damage detection, finite element model updating, modal assurance criteria, structural health monitoring, teaching learning based optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 186
1632 The Connection between Social Support, Caregiver Burden, and Life Satisfaction of the Parents Whose Children Have Congenital Heart Disease

Authors: A. Uludağ, F. G. Tufekci, N. Ceviz

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Aim: The research has been carried out in order to evaluate caregiver burden, life satisfaction and received social support level of the parents whose children have congenital heart disease; to examine the relationship between the social supports received by them and caregiver burden and life satisfaction. Material and Method: The research which is descriptive and which is searching a relationship has been carried out between the dates June 7, 2012- June 30, 2014, in Erzurum Ataturk University Research and Application Hospital, Department of Pediatrics and Children Cardiology Polyclinic. In the research, it was collaborated with the parents (N = 157) who accepted to participate in, of children who were between the ages of 3 months- 12 years. While gathering the data, a questionnaire, Zarit Caregiver Burden, Life Satisfaction and Social Support Scales have been used. The statistics of the data acquired has been produced by using percentage distribution, mean, and variance and correlation analysis. Ethical principles are followed in the research. Results: In the research, caregiver burden, life satisfaction and social support level received from family (p < 0.05), have been determined higher in the parents whose children have serious congenital heart disease than that of parents whose children have slight disease and social support received from friends has been found lower. It has been determined that there is a strong relation (p < 0.001) through negative direction between both social support levels and caregiver burden of parents; and that there is a strong relation (p < 0.001) through positive direction between both support levels and life satisfaction. Conclusion: That Social Support is in a strong relation with Caregiver Burden through a negative direction and a strong relation with Life Satisfaction through positive direction in parents of all the children who have congenital heart disease requires social support systems to be reinforced. Parents can be led or guided so as to prompt social support systems more.

Keywords: congenital heart disease, child, parents, caregiver burden, life satisfaction, social support

Procedia PDF Downloads 269
1631 Estimation of Seismic Ground Motion and Shaking Parameters Based on Microtremor Measurements at Palu City, Central Sulawesi Province, Indonesia

Authors: P. S. Thein, S. Pramumijoyo, K. S. Brotopuspito, J. Kiyono, W. Wilopo, A. Furukawa, A. Setianto

Abstract:

In this study, we estimated the seismic ground motion parameters based on microtremor measurements at Palu City. Several earthquakes have struck along the Palu-Koro Fault during recent years. The USGS epicenter, magnitude Mw 6.3 event that occurred on January 23, 2005 caused several casualties. We conducted a microtremor survey to estimate the strong ground motion distribution during the earthquake. From this survey we produced a map of the peak ground acceleration, velocity, seismic vulnerability index and ground shear strain maps in Palu City. We performed single observations of microtremor at 151 sites in Palu City. We also conducted 8-site microtremors array investigation to gain a representative determination of the soil condition of subsurface structures in Palu City. From the array observations, Palu City corresponds to relatively soil condition with Vs ≤ 300 m/s, the predominant periods due to horizontal vertical ratios (HVSRs) are in the range of 0.4 to 1.8 s and the frequency are in the range of 0.7 to 3.3 Hz. Strong ground motions of the Palu area were predicted based on the empirical stochastic green’s function method. Peak ground acceleration and velocity becomes more than 400 gal and 30 kine in some areas, which causes severe damage for buildings in high probability. Microtremor survey results showed that in hilly areas had low seismic vulnerability index and ground shear strain, whereas in coastal alluvium was composed of material having a high seismic vulnerability and ground shear strain indication.

Keywords: Palu-Koro fault, microtremor, peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, seismic vulnerability index

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1630 Modeling of Thermally Induced Acoustic Emission Memory Effects in Heterogeneous Rocks with Consideration for Fracture Develo

Authors: Vladimir A. Vinnikov

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The paper proposes a model of an inhomogeneous rock mass with initially random distribution of microcracks on mineral grain boundaries. It describes the behavior of cracks in a medium under the effect of thermal field, the medium heated instantaneously to a predetermined temperature. Crack growth occurs according to the concept of fracture mechanics provided that the stress intensity factor K exceeds the critical value of Kc. The modeling of thermally induced acoustic emission memory effects is based on the assumption that every event of crack nucleation or crack growth caused by heating is accompanied by a single acoustic emission event. Parameters of the thermally induced acoustic emission memory effect produced by cyclic heating and cooling (with the temperature amplitude increasing from cycle to cycle) were calculated for several rock texture types (massive, banded, and disseminated). The study substantiates the adaptation of the proposed model to humidity interference with the thermally induced acoustic emission memory effect. The influence of humidity on the thermally induced acoustic emission memory effect in quasi-homogeneous and banded rocks is estimated. It is shown that such modeling allows the structure and texture of rocks to be taken into account and the influence of interference factors on the distinctness of the thermally induced acoustic emission memory effect to be estimated. The numerical modeling can be used to obtain information about the thermal impacts on rocks in the past and determine the degree of rock disturbance by means of non-destructive testing.

Keywords: degree of rock disturbance, non-destructive testing, thermally induced acoustic emission memory effects, structure and texture of rocks

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1629 Accessibility Analysis of Urban Green Space in Zadar Settlement, Croatia

Authors: Silvija Šiljeg, Ivan Marić, Ante Šiljeg

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The accessibility of urban green spaces (UGS) is an integral element in the quality of life. Due to rapid urbanization, UGS studies have become a key element in urban planning. The potential benefits of space for its inhabitants are frequently analysed. A functional transport network system and the optimal spatial distribution of urban green surfaces are the prerequisites for maintaining the environmental equilibrium of the urban landscape. An accessibility analysis was conducted as part of the Urban Green Belts Project (UGB). The development of a GIS database for Zadar was the first step in generating the UGS accessibility indicator. Data were collected using the supervised classification method of multispectral LANDSAT images and manual vectorization of digital orthophoto images (DOF). An analysis of UGS accessibility according to the ANGst standard was conducted in the first phase of research. The accessibility indicator was generated on the basis of seven objective measurements, which included average UGS surface per capita and accessibility according to six functional levels of green surfaces. The generated indicator was compared with subjective measurements obtained by conducting a survey (718 respondents) within statistical units. The collected data reflected individual assessments and subjective evaluations of UGS accessibility. This study highlighted the importance of using objective and subjective measures in the process of understanding the accessibility of urban green surfaces. It may be concluded that when evaluating UGS accessibility, residents emphasize the immediate residential environment, ignoring higher UGS functional levels. It was also concluded that large areas of UGS within a city do not necessarily generate similar satisfaction with accessibility. The heterogeneity of output results may serve as guidelines for the further development of a functional UGS city network.

Keywords: urban green spaces (UGS), accessibility indicator, subjective and objective measurements, Zadar

Procedia PDF Downloads 211
1628 Innovation in "Low-Tech" Industries: Portuguese Footwear Industry

Authors: Antonio Marques, Graça Guedes

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The Portuguese footwear industry had in the last five years a remarkable performance in the exportation values, the trade balance and others economic indicators. After a long period of difficulties and with a strong reduction of companies and employees since 1994 until 2009, the Portuguese footwear industry changed the strategy and is now a success case between the international players of footwear. Only the Italian industry sells footwear with a higher value than the Portuguese and the distance between them is decreasing year by year. This paper analyses how the Portuguese footwear companies innovate and make innovation, according the classification proposed by the Oslo Manual. Also analyses the strategy follow in the innovation process, as suggested by Freeman and Soete, and shows the linkage between the type of innovation and the strategy of innovation. The research methodology was qualitative and the strategy for data collection was the case study. The qualitative data will be analyzed with the MAXQDA software. The economic results of the footwear companies studied shows differences between all of them and these differences are related with the innovation strategy adopted. The companies focused in product and marketing innovation, oriented to their target market, have higher ratios “turnover per worker” than the companies focused in process innovation. However, all the footwear companies in this “low-tech” industry create value and contribute to a positive foreign trade of 1.310 million euros in 2013. The growth strategies implemented has the participation of the sectorial organizations in several innovative projects. And it’s obvious that cooperation between all of them is a critical element to the performance achieved by the companies and the innovation observed. Can conclude that the Portuguese footwear sector has in the last years an excellent performance (economic results, exportation values, trade balance, brands and international image) and his performance is strongly related with the strategy in innovation followed, the type of innovation and the networks in the cluster. A simplified model, called “Ace of Diamonds”, is proposed by the authors and explains the way how this performance was reached by the seven companies that participate in the study (two of them are the leaders in the setor), and if this model can be used in others traditional and “low-tech” industries.

Keywords: footwear, innovation, “low-tech” industry, Oslo manual

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1627 The Impact of Ultrasonicator on the Vertical and Horizontal Mixing Profile of Petrol-Bioethanol

Authors: D. Nkazi, S. E. Iyuke, J. Mulopo

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Increasing global energy demand as well as air quality concerns have in recent years led to the search for alternative clean fuels to replace fossil fuels. One such alternative is the blending of petrol with ethanol, which has numerous advantages such ethanol’s ability to act as oxygenate thus reducing the carbon monoxide emissions from the exhaust of internal combustion engines of vehicles. However, the hygroscopic nature of ethanol is a major concern in obtaining a perfectly homogenized petrol-ethanol fuel. This problem has led to the study of ways of homogenizing the petrol-ethanol mixtures. During the blending process, volumes fraction of ethanol and petrol were studied with respect to the depth within the storage container to confirm homogenization of the blend and time of storage. The results reveal that the density of the mixture was constant. The binodal curve of the ternary diagram shows an increase of homogeneous region, indicating an improved of interaction between water and petrol. The concentration distribution in the reactor showed proof of cavitation formation since in both directions, the variation of concentration with both time and distance was found to be oscillatory. On comparing the profiles in both directions, the concentration gradient, diffusion flux, and energy and diffusion rates were found to be higher in the vertical direction compared to the horizontal direction. It was therefore concluded that ultrasonication creates cavitation in the mixture which enhances mass transfer and mixing of ethanol and petrol. The horizontal direction was found to be the diffusion rate limiting step which proposed that the blender should have a larger height to diameter ratio. It is, however, recommended that further studies be done on the rate-limiting step so as to have actual dimensions of the reactor.

Keywords: ultrasonication, petrol, ethanol, concentration

Procedia PDF Downloads 335
1626 Islamic Banking: A New Trend towards the Development of Banking Law

Authors: Inese Tenberga

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Undoubtedly, the focus of the present capitalist system of finance has shifted from the concept of productivity of money to the ‘cult of money’, which is characterized by such notions as speculative activity, squander, self-profit, vested interest, etc. The author is certain that a civilized society cannot follow this economic path any longer and therefore suggests that one solution would be to integrate the Islamic financial model in the banking sector of the EU to overcome its economic vulnerability and structurally transform its economies or build resilience against shocks and crisis. The researcher analyses the Islamic financial model, which is providing the basis for the concept of non-productivity of money, and proposes to consider it as a new paradigm of economic thinking. The author argues that it seeks to establish a broad-based economic well-being with an optimum rate of economic growth, socio-economic justice, equitable distribution of income and wealth. Furthermore, the author analyses and proposes to use the experience of member states of the Islamic Development Bank for the formation of a new EU interest free banking. It is offered to create within the EU banking system a credit sector and investment sector respectively. As a part of the latter, it is recommended to separate investment banks specializing in speculative investments and non­speculative investment banks. Meanwhile, understanding of the idea of Islamic banking exclusively from the perspective of the manner of yielding profit that differs from credit banking, without considering the legal, social, ethical guidelines of Islam impedes to value objectively the advantages of this type of financial activities at the non-Islamic jurisdictions. However, the author comes to the conclusion the imperative of justice and virtue, which is inherent to all of us, exists regardless of religion. The author concludes that the global community should adopt the experience of the Muslim countries and focus on the Islamic banking model.

Keywords: credit sector, EU banking system, investment sector, Islamic banking

Procedia PDF Downloads 134
1625 Deep Learning-Based Approach to Automatic Abstractive Summarization of Patent Documents

Authors: Sakshi V. Tantak, Vishap K. Malik, Neelanjney Pilarisetty

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A patent is an exclusive right granted for an invention. It can be a product or a process that provides an innovative method of doing something, or offers a new technical perspective or solution to a problem. A patent can be obtained by making the technical information and details about the invention publicly available. The patent owner has exclusive rights to prevent or stop anyone from using the patented invention for commercial uses. Any commercial usage, distribution, import or export of a patented invention or product requires the patent owner’s consent. It has been observed that the central and important parts of patents are scripted in idiosyncratic and complex linguistic structures that can be difficult to read, comprehend or interpret for the masses. The abstracts of these patents tend to obfuscate the precise nature of the patent instead of clarifying it via direct and simple linguistic constructs. This makes it necessary to have an efficient access to this knowledge via concise and transparent summaries. However, as mentioned above, due to complex and repetitive linguistic constructs and extremely long sentences, common extraction-oriented automatic text summarization methods should not be expected to show a remarkable performance when applied to patent documents. Other, more content-oriented or abstractive summarization techniques are able to perform much better and generate more concise summaries. This paper proposes an efficient summarization system for patents using artificial intelligence, natural language processing and deep learning techniques to condense the knowledge and essential information from a patent document into a single summary that is easier to understand without any redundant formatting and difficult jargon.

Keywords: abstractive summarization, deep learning, natural language Processing, patent document

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1624 Corrosion Resistance of 17-4 Precipitation Hardenable Stainless Steel Fabricated by Selective Laser Melting

Authors: Michella Alnajjar, Frederic Christien, Krzysztof Wolski, Cedric Bosch

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Additive manufacturing (AM) has gained more interest in the past few years because it allows 3D parts often having a complex geometry to be directly fabricated, layer by layer according to a CAD model. One of the AM techniques is the selective laser melting (SLM) which is based on powder bed fusion. In this work, the corrosion resistance of 17-4 PH steel obtained by SLM is investigated. Wrought 17-4 PH steel is a martensitic precipitation hardenable stainless steel. It is widely used in a variety of applications such as aerospace, medical and food industries, due to its high strength and relatively good corrosion resistance. However, the combined findings of X-Ray diffraction and electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) proved that SLM-ed 17-4 PH steel has a fully ferritic microstructure, more specifically δ ferrite. The microstructure consists of coarse ferritic grains elongated along the build direction, with a pronounced solidification crystallographic texture. These results were associated with the high cooling and heating rates experienced throughout the SLM process (10⁵-10⁶ K/s) that suppressed the austenite formation and produced a 'by-passing' phenomenon of this phase during the numerous thermal cycles. Furthermore, EDS measurements revealed a uniform distribution of elements without any dendritic structure. The extremely high cooling kinetics induced a diffusionless solidification, resulting in a homogeneous elemental composition. Consequently, the corrosion properties of this steel are altered from that of conventional ones. By using electrochemical means, it was found that SLM-ed 17-4 PH is more resistant to general corrosion than the wrought steel. However, the SLM-ed material exhibits metastable pitting due to its high porosity density. In addition, the hydrogen embrittlement of SLM-ed 17-4 PH steel is investigated, and a correlation between its behavior and the observed microstructure is made.

Keywords: corrosion resistance, 17-4 PH stainless steel, selective laser melting, hydrogen embrittlement

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1623 [Keynote Speech]: Determination of Naturally Occurring and Artificial Radionuclide Activity Concentrations in Marine Sediments in Western Marmara, Turkey

Authors: Erol Kam, Z. U. Yümün

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Natural and artificial radionuclides cause radioactive contamination in environments, just as the other non-biodegradable pollutants (heavy metals, etc.) sink to the sea floor and accumulate in sediments. Especially the habitat of benthic foraminifera living on the surface of sediments or in sediments at the seafloor are affected by radioactive pollution in the marine environment. Thus, it is important for pollution analysis to determine the radionuclides. Radioactive pollution accumulates in the lowest level of the food chain and reaches humans at the highest level. The more the accumulation, the more the environment is endangered. This study used gamma spectrometry to investigate the natural and artificial radionuclide distribution of sediment samples taken from living benthic foraminifera habitats in the Western Marmara Sea. The radionuclides, K-40, Cs-137, Ra-226, Mn 54, Zr-95+ and Th-232, were identified in the sediment samples. For this purpose, 18 core samples were taken from depths of about 25-30 meters in the Marmara Sea in 2016. The locations of the core samples were specifically selected exclusively from discharge points for domestic and industrial areas, port locations, and so forth to represent pollution in the study area. Gamma spectrometric analysis was used to determine the radioactive properties of sediments. The radionuclide concentration activity values in the sediment samples obtained were Cs-137=0.9-9.4 Bq/kg, Th-232=18.9-86 Bq/kg, Ra-226=10-50 Bq/kg, K-40=24.4–670 Bq/kg, Mn 54=0.71–0.9 Bq/kg and Zr-95+=0.18–0.19 Bq/kg. These values were compared with the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) data, and an environmental analysis was carried out. The Ra-226 series, the Th-232 series, and the K-40 radionuclides accumulate naturally and are increasing every day due to anthropogenic pollution. Although the Ra-226 values obtained in the study areas remained within normal limits according to the UNSCEAR values, the K-40, and Th-232 series values were found to be high in almost all the locations.

Keywords: Ra-226, Th-232, K-40, Cs-137, Mn 54, Zr-95+, radionuclides, Western Marmara Sea

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1622 Enhancing Sell-In and Sell-Out Forecasting Using Ensemble Machine Learning Method

Authors: Vishal Das, Tianyi Mao, Zhicheng Geng, Carmen Flores, Diego Pelloso, Fang Wang

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Accurate sell-in and sell-out forecasting is a ubiquitous problem in the retail industry. It is an important element of any demand planning activity. As a global food and beverage company, Nestlé has hundreds of products in each geographical location that they operate in. Each product has its sell-in and sell-out time series data, which are forecasted on a weekly and monthly scale for demand and financial planning. To address this challenge, Nestlé Chilein collaboration with Amazon Machine Learning Solutions Labhas developed their in-house solution of using machine learning models for forecasting. Similar products are combined together such that there is one model for each product category. In this way, the models learn from a larger set of data, and there are fewer models to maintain. The solution is scalable to all product categories and is developed to be flexible enough to include any new product or eliminate any existing product in a product category based on requirements. We show how we can use the machine learning development environment on Amazon Web Services (AWS) to explore a set of forecasting models and create business intelligence dashboards that can be used with the existing demand planning tools in Nestlé. We explored recent deep learning networks (DNN), which show promising results for a variety of time series forecasting problems. Specifically, we used a DeepAR autoregressive model that can group similar time series together and provide robust predictions. To further enhance the accuracy of the predictions and include domain-specific knowledge, we designed an ensemble approach using DeepAR and XGBoost regression model. As part of the ensemble approach, we interlinked the sell-out and sell-in information to ensure that a future sell-out influences the current sell-in predictions. Our approach outperforms the benchmark statistical models by more than 50%. The machine learning (ML) pipeline implemented in the cloud is currently being extended for other product categories and is getting adopted by other geomarkets.

Keywords: sell-in and sell-out forecasting, demand planning, DeepAR, retail, ensemble machine learning, time-series

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1621 Trend Analysis of Annual Total Precipitation Data in Konya

Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan

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Hydroclimatic observation values ​​are used in the planning of the project of water resources. Climate variables are the first of the values ​​used in planning projects. At the same time, the climate system is a complex and interactive system involving the atmosphere, land surfaces, snow and bubbles, the oceans and other water structures. The amount and distribution of precipitation, which is an important climate parameter, is a limiting environmental factor for dispersed living things. Trend analysis is applied to the detection of the presence of a pattern or trend in the data set. Many trends work in different parts of the world are usually made for the determination of climate change. The detection and attribution of past trends and variability in climatic variables is essential for explaining potential future alteration resulting from anthropogenic activities. Parametric and non-parametric tests are used for determining the trends in climatic variables. In this study, trend tests were applied to annual total precipitation data obtained in period of 1972 and 2012, in the Konya Basin. Non-parametric trend tests, (Sen’s T, Spearman’s Rho, Mann-Kendal, Sen’s T trend, Wald-Wolfowitz) and parametric test (mean square) were applied to annual total precipitations of 15 stations for trend analysis. The linear slopes (change per unit time) of trends are calculated by using a non-parametric estimator developed by Sen. The beginning of trends is determined by using the Mann-Kendall rank correlation test. In addition, homogeneities in precipitation trends are tested by using a method developed by Van Belle and Hughes. As a result of tests, negative linear slopes were found in annual total precipitations in Konya.

Keywords: trend analysis, precipitation, hydroclimatology, Konya

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1620 Comparison of Clinical Profiles of Patients Seen in a Women and Children Protection Unit in a Local Government Hospital in Makati, Philippines Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic Between January 2018 to February 2020 and March 2020 to December 2021

Authors: Margaret Denise P. Del Rosario, Geraldine Alcantara

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Background: The declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted hospital visits of child abuse cases with less consults but more severe injuries. Objective: The study aims to identify the clinical profiles of patients seen in the hospital ng Makati Women and Children Protection Unit before and during the pandemic. Design: A cross-sectional analytic study design through review of records that underwent quantitative analysis. Results: 264 cases pre-pandemic and 208 cases during the pandemic were reviewed. Most reported cases were neglect comprising of 47% of the pre-pandemic cases and 68% of cases during the pandemic. Supervisory neglect was most commonly reported. An equal distribution between males and females were seen among victims and alleged perpetrators. The age group of both victims and alleged perpetrators during the pandemic was significantly younger compared to the pre-pandemic period. Children belonging to larger family groups were commonly encountered with most of them being the eldest amongst siblings. Alleged perpetrators were mostly secondary graduates for both time periods. A significant increase of cases during the pandemic occurred at home. More patients required hospitalization during the pandemic period with 37% compared to the 23% of admissions prior to the pandemic. Furthermore, a three-fold increase of injuries sustained during the pandemic required intensive care. Conclusion: The study reflects increased severity of injuries related to abuse during the pandemic compared to pre-pandemic times. A significant increase in injuries requiring intensive care were also seen despite less reported cases.

Keywords: child abuse, COVID-19, violence against children, WCPU, neglect

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1619 Examining Postcolonial Corporate Power Structures through the Lens of Development Induced Projects in Africa

Authors: Omogboyega Abe

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This paper examines the relationships between socio-economic inequalities of power, race, wealth engendered by corporate structure, and domination in postcolonial Africa. The paper further considers how land as an epitome of property and power for the locals paved the way for capitalist accumulation and control in the hands of transnational corporations. European colonization of Africa was contingent on settler colonialism, where properties, including land, were re-modified as extractive resources for primitive accumulation. In developing Africa's extractive resources, transnational corporations (TNCs) usurped states' structures and domination over native land. The usurpation/corporate capture that exists to date has led to remonstrations and arguably a counter-productive approach to development projects. In some communities, the mention of extractive companies triggers resentment. The paradigm of state capture and state autonomy is simply inadequate to either describe or resolve the play of forces or actors responsible for severe corporate-induced human rights violations in emerging markets. Moreover, even if the deadly working conditions are conceived as some regulatory failure, it is tough to tell whose failure. The analysis in this paper is that the complexity and ambiguity evidenced by the multiple regimes and political and economic forces shaping production, consumption, and distribution of socio-economic variables are not exceptional in emerging markets. Instead, the varied experience in developing countries provides a window for seeing what we face in understanding and theorizing the structure and operation of the global economic and regulatory order in general.

Keywords: colonial, emerging markets, business, human rights, corporation

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1618 Computation of Residual Stresses in Human Face Due to Growth

Authors: M. A. Askari, M. A. Nazari, P. Perrier, Y. Payan

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Growth and remodeling of biological structures have gained lots of attention over the past decades. Determining the response of the living tissues to the mechanical loads is necessary for a wide range of developing fields such as, designing of prosthetics and optimized surgery operations. It is a well-known fact that biological structures are never stress-free, even when externally unloaded. The exact origin of these residual stresses is not clear, but theoretically growth and remodeling is one of the main sources. Extracting body organs from medical imaging, does not produce any information regarding the existing residual stresses in that organ. The simplest cause of such stresses is the gravity since an organ grows under its influence from its birth. Ignoring such residual stresses might cause erroneous results in numerical simulations. Accounting for residual stresses due to tissue growth can improve the accuracy of mechanical analysis results. In this paper, we have implemented a computational framework based on fixed-point iteration to determine the residual stresses due to growth. Using nonlinear continuum mechanics and the concept of fictitious configuration we find the unknown stress-free reference configuration which is necessary for mechanical analysis. To illustrate the method, we apply it to a finite element model of healthy human face whose geometry has been extracted from medical images. We have computed the distribution of residual stress in facial tissues, which can overcome the effect of gravity and cause that tissues remain firm. Tissue wrinkles caused by aging could be a consequence of decreasing residual stress and not counteracting the gravity. Considering these stresses has important application in maxillofacial surgery. It helps the surgeons to predict the changes after surgical operations and their consequences.

Keywords: growth, soft tissue, residual stress, finite element method

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1617 Cardiorespiratory Fitness and the Cardiometabolic Profile in Inactive Obese Postmenopausal Women: A MONET Study

Authors: Ahmed Ghachem, Johann Colomba, Denis Prud'homme, Martin Brochu

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Background: Inactive obese postmenopausal women, are at greater risk for metabolic complications. On the other hand, high levels of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) are associated with a lower risk of metabolic complications. Objective: To compare inactive obese postmenopausal women displaying ‘lower’ vs ‘higher’ levels of CRF for body composition, metabolic profile, inflammatory profile and measures of energy expenditure. Methods: 132 women (age: 57.6 ± 4.8 yrs; BMI: 32.3 ± 4.6 kg/m2; Peak VO2: 17.81 ± 3.02 ml O2•kg-1•min-1) were studied. They were first divided into tertiles based on their CRF. Then, women in the first (< 16.51 ml O2•min-1•kg-1) and second tertiles (16.51 to 19.22 ml O2•min-1•kg-1) were combined (N= 88), and compared with those in the third tertile (> 19.22 ml O2•min-1•kg-1) (N= 44). Variables of interest were: Peak VO2 (stationary bike), body composition (DXA), body fat distribution (CT scan), glucose homeostasis (fasting state and euglycemic/ hyperinsulinemic clamp), fasting lipids, resting blood pressure, inflammatory profile and energy expenditure (DLW). Results: Both CRF groups (lower= 16.0 ± 2.0 ml O2•kg-1•min-1 vs higher= 21.2 ± 1.7 ml O2•kg-1•min-1; p < 0.001) were similar for age. Significant differences were observed between groups for body composition; with lower values for body weight, BMI, fat mass and visceral fat in women with higher CRF (p between 0.001 and 0.005). Also, women with higher CRF had lower values for fasting insulin (13.4 ± 4.5 vs 15.6 ± 6.6 μU/ml; p = 0.03) and CRP levels (2.31 ± 1.97 vs 3.83 ± 3.24 mg/liter; p = 0.001); and higher values for glucose disposal (6.71 ± 1.78 vs 5.92 ± 1.67 mg/kg/min; p = 0.01). However, these differences were no longer significant after controlling for visceral adipose tissue accumulations. Finally, no significant difference was observed between groups for the other variables of interest. Conclusion: Our results suggest that, among inactive overweight/obese postmenopausal women, those with higher CRF levels have a better metabolic profile; which is caused by lower visceral fat accumulations.

Keywords: cardiorespiratory fitness, metabolic profile, menopause, obesity

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1616 Social Media Advertising and Acceptability of Fast Moving Consumer Goods in Nigeria’s Manufacturing Industry

Authors: John Akinwumi Makinde

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Nigerian manufacturing industry, particularly the fast moving consumer producing firms play vital roles in Nigerian economy. This sector’s product acceptability is given very little attention along with social media advertising that communicate product information to audience across the globe need to be documented. Procter and Gamble Plc operate in Nigeria with appreciable number of fast moving consumer goods that service Nigerian economy. Social media advertising disposition of the company and product acceptability of the company deserve some elucidations. This study therefore examined the impact of social media advertising on product acceptability of FMCG in Nigerian manufacturing industry, using Procter and Gamble Plc as case study. The study employed the case study type of descriptive survey research design. The population consisted of 235 customers of G&P Plc, which were selected through random sampling method. A total of 235 copies of questionnaires titled 'Social Media Advertising and Product Acceptability (SMA-PA) Questionnaire' was administered and retrieved. Data generated were analysed using frequency distribution and regression analysis at 0.05 level. It was found that social media advertising positively and significantly motivated customers to buy product of P&G Plc (r =.147**, N= 235, p(.000) < .01). Findings also showed that social media advertising has significant impact on product acceptability of FCMG in P&G Plc (F(2,61)=22.250; R2=.629; P(.000) < .05). The study concluded that social media advertising is a determinant factor of consumer decision to accept fast moving consumer goods in Nigerian manufacturing industry. It is recommended that with the growing market of FMCG, there is need to educate the market with the product unique features, standard and quality on social media. Finally, Fast Moving Consumer Goods firms should deploy excellent marketing mix on social media.

Keywords: advertising, fast moving consumer goods, manufacturing industry, product acceptability, social media

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1615 The Methanotrophic Activity in a Landfill Bio-Cover through a Subzero Winter

Authors: Parvin Berenjkar, Qiuyan Yuan, Richard Sparling, Stan Lozecznik

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Landfills highly contribute to anthropological global warming through CH₄ emissions. Landfills are usually capped by a conventional soil cover to control the migration of gases. Methane is consumed by CH₄-oxidizing microorganisms known as methanotrophs that naturally exist in the landfill soil cover. The growth of methanotrophs can be optimized in a bio-cover that typically consists of a gas distribution layer (GDL) to homogenize landfill gas fluxes and an overlying oxidation layer composed of suitable materials that support methanotrophic populations. Materials such as mature yard waste composts can provide an inexpensive and favourable porous support for the growth and activity of methanotrophs. In areas with seasonal cold climates, it is valuable to know if methanotrophs in a bio-cover can survive in winter until the next spring, and how deep they are active in the bio-cover to mitigate CH₄. In this study, a pilot bio-cover was constructed in a closed landfill cell in Winnipeg that has a very cold climate in Canada. The bio-cover has a surface area of 2.5 m x 3.5 m and 1.5 m of depth, filled with 50 cm of gravel as a GDL and 70 cm of biosolids compost amended with yard and leaf waste compost. The observed in situ potential of methanotrophs for CH₄ oxidation was investigated at a specific period of time from December 2016 to April 2017 as well as November 2017 to April 2018, when the transition to surface frost and thawing happens in the bio-cover. Compost samples taken from different depths of the bio-cover were incubated in the laboratory under standardized conditions; an optimal air: methane atmosphere, at 22ºC, but at in situ moisture content. Results showed that the methanotrophs were alive oxidizing methane without a lag, indicating that there was the potential for methanotrophic activity at some depths of the bio-cover.

Keywords: bio-cover, global warming, landfill, methanotrophic activity

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1614 Bench-scale Evaluation of Alternative-to-Chlorination Disinfection Technologies for the Treatment of the Maltese Tap-water

Authors: Georgios Psakis, Imren Rahbay, David Spiteri, Jeanice Mallia, Martin Polidano, Vasilis P. Valdramidis

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Absence of surface water and progressive groundwater quality deterioration have exacerbated scarcity rapidly, making the Mediterranean island of Malta one of the most water-stressed countries in Europe. Water scarcity challenges have been addressed by reverse osmosis desalination of seawater, 60% of which is blended with groundwater to form the current potable tap-water supply. Chlorination has been the adopted method of water disinfection prior to distribution. However, with the Malteseconsumer chlorine sensory-threshold being as low as 0.34 ppm, presence of chorine residuals and chlorination by-products in the distributed tap-water impacts negatively on its organoleptic attributes, deterring the public from consuming it. As part of the PURILMA initiative, and with the aim of minimizing the impact of chlorine residual on the quality of the distributed water, UV-C, and hydrosonication, have been identified as cost- and energy-effective decontamination alternatives, paving the way for more sustainable water management. Bench-scale assessment of the decontamination efficiency of UV-C (254 nm), revealed 4.7-Log10 inactivation for both Escherichia coli and Enterococcus faecalis at 36 mJ/cm2. At >200 mJ/cm2fluence rates, there was a systematic 2-Log10 difference in the reductions exhibited by E. coli and E. faecalis to suggest that UV-C disinfection was more effective against E. coli. Hybrid treatment schemes involving hydrosonication(at 9.5 and 12.5 dm3/min flow rates with 1-5 MPa maximum pressure) and UV-C showed at least 1.1-fold greater bactericidal activity relative to the individualized UV-C treatments. The observed inactivation appeared to have stemmed from additive effects of the combined treatments, with hydrosonication-generated reactive oxygen species enhancing the biocidal activity of UV-C.

Keywords: disinfection, groundwater, hydrosonication, UV-C

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1613 Early Age Microstructural Analysis of Cement-Polymer Composite Paste Cured at High Temperature

Authors: Bertilia L. Bartley, Ledjane S. Barreto

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As a preliminary investigation on the control of microcracking in composite cement pastes, this study explores and compares the compatibility of Tetraethyl Orthosilicate (TEOS), Ethylene Glycol (EG) and Silicone Resin (SIL) in cement pastes cured at high temperature. Pastes were prepared by incorporating ordinary Portland cement (OPC) into an additive solution, using a solution/cement ratio of 0.45. Specimens were molded for 24h at 21 ± 2°C, then cured in deionized water for another 24h at 74 ± 1°C. TEOS and EG influence on fresh paste properties were similar to the reference OPC paste yet disintegration was observed in EG and SIL specimens after the first 12h of curing. X-Ray Diffraction analysis (XRD) coupled with thermogravimetric analysis (TGA/DTG) verified that SIL addition impedes portlandite formation significantly. Backscatter Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) techniques were therefore performed on selected areas of each sample to investigate the morphology of the hydration products detected. Various morphologies of portlandite crystals were observed in pastes with EG and TEOS addition, as well as dense morphologies of calcium silicate hydrate (C-S-H) gel and fibers, and ettringite needles. However, the formation of portlandite aggregate and clusters of C-S-H was highly favored by TEOS addition. Furthermore, the microstructural details of composite pastes were clearly visible at low magnifications i.e. 500x, as compared to the OPC paste. The results demonstrate accelerated hydration within composite pastes, a uniform distribution of hydration products, as well as an adhesive interaction with the products and polymer additive. Overall, TEOS demonstrated the most favorable influence, which indicates the potential of TEOS as a compatible polymer additive within the cement system at high temperature.

Keywords: accelerated curing, cement/polymer composite, hydration, microstructural properties, morphology, portlandite, scanning electron microscopy (sem)

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1612 Analysis of the Effect of Increased Self-Awareness on the Amount of Food Thrown Away

Authors: Agnieszka Dubiel, Artur Grabowski, Tomasz Przerywacz, Mateusz Roganowicz, Patrycja Zioty

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Food waste is one of the most significant challenges humanity is facing nowadays. Every year, reports from global organizations show the scale of the phenomenon, although society's awareness is still insufficient. One-third of the food produced in the world is wasted at various points in the food supply chain. Wastes are present from the delivery through the food preparation and distribution to the end of the sale and consumption. The first step in understanding and resisting the phenomenon is a thorough analysis of the everyday behaviors of humanity. This concept is understood as finding the correlation between the type of food and the reason for throwing it out and wasting it. Those actions were identified as a critical step in the start of work to develop technology to prevent food waste. In this paper, the problem mentioned above was analyzed by focusing on the inhabitants of Central Europe, especially Poland, aged 20-30. This paper provides an insight into collecting data through dedicated software and an organized database. The proposed database contains information on the amount, type, and reasons for wasting food in households. A literature review supported the work to answer research questions, compare the situation in Poland with the problem analyzed in other countries, and find research gaps. The proposed article examines the cause of food waste and its quantity in detail. This review complements previous reviews by emphasizing social and economic innovation in Poland's food waste management. The paper recommends a course of action for future research on food waste management and prevention related to the handling and disposal of food, emphasizing households, i.e., the last link in the supply chain.

Keywords: food waste, food waste reduction, consumer food waste, human-food interaction

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1611 Distribution and Risk Assessment of Phthalates in Water and Sediment of Omambala River, Anambra State, Nigeria in Wet Season

Authors: Ogbuagu Josephat Okechukwu, Okeke Abuchi Princewill, Arinze Rosemary Uche, Tabugbo Ifeyinwa Blessing, Ogbuagu Adaora Stellamaris

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Phthalates or Phthalate esters (PAEs), categorized as an endocrine disruptor and persistent organic pollutants, are known for their environmental contamination and toxicological effects. In this study, the concentration of selected phthalates was determined across the sampling site to investigate their occurrence and the ecological and health risk assessment they pose to the environment. Water and sediment samples were collected following standard procedures. Solid phase and ultrasonic methods were used to extract seven different PAEs, which were analyzed by Gas Chromatography with Mass Detector (GCMS). The analytical average recovery was found to be within the range of s83.4% ± 2.3%. The results showed that PAEs were detected in six out of seven samples with a high percentage of detection rate in water. Di-n-butyl phthalate (DPB) and diisobutyl phthalates (DiBP) showed greater detection rate compared to other PAEs monomers. The concentration of PEs was found to be higher in the sediment samples compared to the water samples due to the fact that sediments serve as a sink for most persistent organic pollutants. The concentrations of PAEs in water samples and sediments ranged from 0.03 ± 0.01 to 0.29 ± 0.002 ppm and 3.99 ± 0.43 to 6.04 ± 1.25 ppm, respectively. Ecological risk assessment using the risk quotient method (RQ) reveals that the estimated environmental risk caused by phthalates lies within the moderate level as RQ ranges from 0.1 to 1.0, whereas the health risk assessment caused by phthalates on estimating the average daily dose reveals that the ingestion of phthalates was found to be high which can cause serious carcinogenic occurrence in the human system with time due to excess accumulation.

Keywords: phthaletes, assessment, marine pollution, endocrine

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1610 Probabilistic Analysis of Bearing Capacity of Isolated Footing using Monte Carlo Simulation

Authors: Sameer Jung Karki, Gokhan Saygili

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The allowable bearing capacity of foundation systems is determined by applying a factor of safety to the ultimate bearing capacity. Conventional ultimate bearing capacity calculations routines are based on deterministic input parameters where the nonuniformity and inhomogeneity of soil and site properties are not accounted for. Hence, the laws of mathematics like probability calculus and statistical analysis cannot be directly applied to foundation engineering. It’s assumed that the Factor of Safety, typically as high as 3.0, incorporates the uncertainty of the input parameters. This factor of safety is estimated based on subjective judgement rather than objective facts. It is an ambiguous term. Hence, a probabilistic analysis of the bearing capacity of an isolated footing on a clayey soil is carried out by using the Monte Carlo Simulation method. This simulated model was compared with the traditional discrete model. It was found out that the bearing capacity of soil was found higher for the simulated model compared with the discrete model. This was verified by doing the sensitivity analysis. As the number of simulations was increased, there was a significant % increase of the bearing capacity compared with discrete bearing capacity. The bearing capacity values obtained by simulation was found to follow a normal distribution. While using the traditional value of Factor of safety 3, the allowable bearing capacity had lower probability (0.03717) of occurring in the field compared to a higher probability (0.15866), while using the simulation derived factor of safety of 1.5. This means the traditional factor of safety is giving us bearing capacity that is less likely occurring/available in the field. This shows the subjective nature of factor of safety, and hence probability method is suggested to address the variability of the input parameters in bearing capacity equations.

Keywords: bearing capacity, factor of safety, isolated footing, montecarlo simulation

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1609 Analysis of the Influence of Fiber Volume and Fiber Orientation on Post-Cracking Behavior of Steel Fiber Reinforced Concrete

Authors: Marilia M. Camargo, Luisa A. Gachet-Barbosa, Rosa C. C. Lintz

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The addition of fibers into concrete matrix can enhance some properties of the composite, such as tensile, flexural and impact strengths, toughness, deformation capacity and post-cracking ductility. Many factors affect the mechanical behavior of fiber reinforced concrete, such as concrete matrix (concrete strength, additions, aggregate diameter, etc.), characteristics of the fiber (geometry, type, aspect ratio, volume, orientation, distribution, strength, stiffness, etc.), specimen (size, geometry, method of preparation and loading rate). This research investigates the effects of fiber volume and orientation on the post-cracking behavior of steel fiber reinforced concrete (SFRC). Hooked-end steel fibers with aspect ratios of 45 were added into concrete with volume of 0,32%, 0,64%, 0,94%. The post-cracking behaviour was assessed by double punch test of cubic specimens and the actual volume and orientation of the fibers were determined by non-destructive tests by means of electromagnetic induction. The results showed that the actual volume of fibers in each sample differs in a small amount from the dosed volume of fibers and that the deformation and toughness of the concrete increase with the increase in the actual volume of fibers. In determining the orientation of the fibers, it was found that they tend to distribute more in the X and Y axes due to the influence of the walls of the mold. In addition, it was concluded that the orientation of the fibers is important in the post-cracking behaviour of FRC when analyzed together with the actual volume of fibers, since the greater the volume of fibers, the greater the number of fibers oriented orthogonally to the application of loadings and, consequently, there is a better mechanical behavior of the composite. These results provide a better understanding of the influence of volume and fiber orientation on the post-cracking behavior of the FRC.

Keywords: fiber reinforced concrete, steel fibers, volume of fibers, orientation of fibers, post-cracking behaviour

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1608 Numerical Modeling of Air Shock Wave Generated by Explosive Detonation and Dynamic Response of Structures

Authors: Michał Lidner, Zbigniew SzcześNiak

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The ability to estimate blast load overpressure properly plays an important role in safety design of buildings. The issue of studying of blast loading on structural elements has been explored for many years. However, in many literature reports shock wave overpressure is estimated with simplified triangular or exponential distribution in time. This indicates some errors when comparing real and numerical reaction of elements. Nonetheless, it is possible to further improve setting similar to the real blast load overpressure function versus time. The paper presents a method of numerical analysis of the phenomenon of the air shock wave propagation. It uses Finite Volume Method and takes into account energy losses due to a heat transfer with respect to an adiabatic process rule. A system of three equations (conservation of mass, momentum and energy) describes the flow of a volume of gaseous medium in the area remote from building compartments, which can inhibit the movement of gas. For validation three cases of a shock wave flow were analyzed: a free field explosion, an explosion inside a steel insusceptible tube (the 1D case) and an explosion inside insusceptible cube (the 3D case). The results of numerical analysis were compared with the literature reports. Values of impulse, pressure, and its duration were studied. Finally, an overall good convergence of numerical results with experiments was achieved. Also the most important parameters were well reflected. Additionally analyses of dynamic response of one of considered structural element were made.

Keywords: adiabatic process, air shock wave, explosive, finite volume method

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1607 Rheumatoid Arthritis, Periodontitis and the Subgingival Microbiome: A Circular Relationship

Authors: Isabel Lopez-Oliva, Akshay Paropkari, Shweta Saraswat, Stefan Serban, Paola de Pablo, Karim Raza, Andrew Filer, Iain Chapple, Thomas Dietrich, Melissa Grant, Purnima Kumar

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Objective: We aimed to explicate the role of the subgingival microbiome in the causal link between rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and periodontitis (PD). Methods: Subjects with/without RA and with/without PD were randomized for treatment with scaling and root planing (SRP) or oral hygiene instructions. Subgingival biofilm, gingival crevicular fluid, and serum were collected at baseline and at 3- and 6-months post-operatively. Correlations were generated between 72 million 16S rDNA sequences, immuno-inflammatory mediators, circulating antibodies to oral microbial antigens, serum inflammatory molecules, and clinical metrics of RA. The dynamics of inter-microbial and host-microbial interactions were modeled using differential network analysis. Results: RA superseded periodontitis as a determinant of microbial composition, and DAS28 score superseded the severity of periodontitis as a driver of microbial assemblages (p=0.001, ANOSIM). RA subjects evidenced higher serum anti-PPAD (p=0.0013), anti-Pg-enolase (p=0.0031), anti-RPP3, anti- Pg-OMP and anti- Pi-OMP (p=0.001) antibodies than non-RA controls (with and without periodontitis). Following SRP, bacterial networks anchored by IL-1b, IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, IL-13, MIP-1b, and PDGF-b underwent ≥5-fold higher rewiring; and serum antibodies to microbial antigens decreased significantly. Conclusions: Our data suggest a circular relationship between RA and PD, beginning with an RA-influenced dysbiosis within the healthy subgingival microbiome that leads to exaggerated local inflammation in periodontitis and circulating antibodies to periodontal pathogens and positive correlation between severity of periodontitis and RA activity. Periodontal therapy restores host-microbial homeostasis, reduces local inflammation, and decreases circulating microbial antigens. Our data highlights the importance of integrating periodontal care into the management of RA patients.

Keywords: rheumatoid arthritis, periodontal, subgingival, DNA sequence analysis, oral microbiome

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1606 Rescaled Range Analysis of Seismic Time-Series: Example of the Recent Seismic Crisis of Alhoceima

Authors: Marina Benito-Parejo, Raul Perez-Lopez, Miguel Herraiz, Carolina Guardiola-Albert, Cesar Martinez

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Persistency, long-term memory and randomness are intrinsic properties of time-series of earthquakes. The Rescaled Range Analysis (RS-Analysis) was introduced by Hurst in 1956 and modified by Mandelbrot and Wallis in 1964. This method represents a simple and elegant analysis which determines the range of variation of one natural property (the seismic energy released in this case) in a time interval. Despite the simplicity, there is complexity inherent in the property measured. The cumulative curve of the energy released in time is the well-known fractal geometry of a devil’s staircase. This geometry is used for determining the maximum and minimum value of the range, which is normalized by the standard deviation. The rescaled range obtained obeys a power-law with the time, and the exponent is the Hurst value. Depending on this value, time-series can be classified in long-term or short-term memory. Hence, an algorithm has been developed for compiling the RS-Analysis for time series of earthquakes by days. Completeness time distribution and locally stationarity of the time series are required. The interest of this analysis is their application for a complex seismic crisis where different earthquakes take place in clusters in a short period. Therefore, the Hurst exponent has been obtained for the seismic crisis of Alhoceima (Mediterranean Sea) of January-March, 2016, where at least five medium-sized earthquakes were triggered. According to the values obtained from the Hurst exponent for each cluster, a different mechanical origin can be detected, corroborated by the focal mechanisms calculated by the official institutions. Therefore, this type of analysis not only allows an approach to a greater understanding of a seismic series but also makes possible to discern different types of seismic origins.

Keywords: Alhoceima crisis, earthquake time series, Hurst exponent, rescaled range analysis

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1605 Application of an Analytical Model to Obtain Daily Flow Duration Curves for Different Hydrological Regimes in Switzerland

Authors: Ana Clara Santos, Maria Manuela Portela, Bettina Schaefli

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This work assesses the performance of an analytical model framework to generate daily flow duration curves, FDCs, based on climatic characteristics of the catchments and on their streamflow recession coefficients. According to the analytical model framework, precipitation is considered to be a stochastic process, modeled as a marked Poisson process, and recession is considered to be deterministic, with parameters that can be computed based on different models. The analytical model framework was tested for three case studies with different hydrological regimes located in Switzerland: pluvial, snow-dominated and glacier. For that purpose, five time intervals were analyzed (the four meteorological seasons and the civil year) and two developments of the model were tested: one considering a linear recession model and the other adopting a nonlinear recession model. Those developments were combined with recession coefficients obtained from two different approaches: forward and inverse estimation. The performance of the analytical framework when considering forward parameter estimation is poor in comparison with the inverse estimation for both, linear and nonlinear models. For the pluvial catchment, the inverse estimation shows exceptional good results, especially for the nonlinear model, clearing suggesting that the model has the ability to describe FDCs. For the snow-dominated and glacier catchments the seasonal results are better than the annual ones suggesting that the model can describe streamflows in those conditions and that future efforts should focus on improving and combining seasonal curves instead of considering single annual ones.

Keywords: analytical streamflow distribution, stochastic process, linear and non-linear recession, hydrological modelling, daily discharges

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