Search results for: computational modelling

Authors: Hicham Gourgue, Ahmed Aharoune, Ahmed Ihlal

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We present in this work our model of road traffic emissions (line sources) and dispersion of these emissions, named DISPOLSPEM (Dispersion of Poly Sources and Pollutants Emission Model). In its emission part, this model was designed to keep the consistent bottom-up and top-down approaches. It also allows to generate emission inventories from reduced input parameters being adapted to existing conditions in Morocco and in the other developing countries. While several simplifications are made, all the performance of the model results are kept. A further important advantage of the model is that it allows the uncertainty calculation and emission rate uncertainty according to each of the input parameters. In the dispersion part of the model, an improved line source model has been developed, implemented and tested against a reference solution. It provides improvement in accuracy over previous formulas of line source Gaussian plume model, without being too demanding in terms of computational resources. In the case study presented here, the biggest errors were associated with the ends of line source sections; these errors will be canceled by adjacent sections of line sources during the simulation of a road network. In cases where the wind is parallel to the source line, the use of the combination discretized source and analytical line source formulas minimizes remarkably the error. Because this combination is applied only for a small number of wind directions, it should not excessively increase the calculation time.

Keywords: air pollution, dispersion, emissions, line sources, road traffic, urban transport

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Authors: Iddy Iddy, Qin Jiang, Changkuan Zhang

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This paper addresses the hydraulic performance of curtain wall breakwaters as a coastal structure protection based on the particles method modelling. The hydraulic functions of curtain wall as wave barriers by reflecting large parts of incident waves through the vertical wall, a part transmitted and a particular part was dissipating the wave energies through the eddy flows formed beneath the lower end of the plate. As a Lagrangian particle, the Moving Particle Semi-implicit (MPS) method which has a robust capability for numerical representation has proven useful for design of structures application that concern free-surface hydrodynamic flow, such as wave breaking and overtopping. In this study, a vertical two-dimensional numerical model for the simulation of violent flow associated with the interaction between the curtain-wall breakwaters and progressive water waves is developed by MPS method in which a higher precision pressure gradient model and free surface particle recognition model were proposed. The wave transmission, reflection, and energy dissipation of the vertical wall were experimentally and theoretically examined. With the numerical wave flume by particle method, very detailed velocity and pressure fields around the curtain-walls under the action of waves can be computed in each calculation steps, and the effect of different wave and structural parameters on the hydrodynamic characteristics was investigated. Also, the simulated results of temporal profiles and distributions of velocity and pressure in the vicinity of curtain-wall breakwaters are compared with the experimental data. Herein, the numerical investigation of hydraulic performance of curtain wall breakwaters indicated that the incident wave is largely reflected from the structure, while the large eddies or turbulent flows occur beneath the curtain-wall resulting in big energy losses. The improved MPS method shows a good agreement between numerical results and analytical/experimental data which are compared to related researches. It is thus verified that the improved pressure gradient model and free surface particle recognition methods are useful for enhancement of stability and accuracy of MPS model for water waves and marine structures. Therefore, it is possible for particle method (MPS method) to achieve an appropriate level of correctness to be applied in engineering fields through further study.

Keywords: curtain wall breakwaters, free surface flow, hydraulic performance, improved MPS method

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Authors: O. Afshar

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Unlike other renewable energy sources, tidal current energy is an extremely reliable, predictable and continuous energy source as the current pattern and speed can be predicted throughout the year. A key concern associated with tidal turbines is their long-term reliability when operating in the hostile marine environment. Bio-fouling changes the physical shape and roughness of turbine components, hence altering the overall turbine performance. This paper seeks to employ Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) method to quantify the effects of this problem based on the obtained flow field information. The simulation is carried out on a NACA 63-618 aerofoil. The Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations with Shear Stress Transport (SST) turbulent model are used to simulate the flow around the model. Different levels of fouling are studied on 2D aerofoil surface with quantified fouling height and density. In terms of lift and drag coefficient results, numerical results show good agreement with the experiment which was carried out in wind tunnel. Numerical results of research indicate that an increase in fouling thickness causes an increase in drag coefficient and a reduction in lift coefficient. Moreover, pressure gradient gradually becomes adverse as height of fouling increases. In addition, result by turbulent kinetic energy contour reveals it increases with fouling height and it extends into wake due to flow separation.

Keywords: tidal energy, lift coefficient, drag coefficient, roughness

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Authors: Emiliano Matta

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Passive resonant vibration absorbers are among the most widely used dynamic control systems in civil engineering. They typically consist in a single-degree-of-freedom mechanical appendage of the main structure, tuned to one structural target mode through frequency and damping optimization. One classical scheme is the pendulum absorber, whose mass is constrained to move along a curved trajectory and is damped by viscous dashpots. Even though the principle is well known, the search for improved arrangements is still under way. In recent years this investigation inspired a type of bidirectional pendulum absorber (BPA), consisting of a mass constrained to move along an optimal three-dimensional (3D) concave surface. For such a BPA, the surface principal curvatures are designed to ensure a bidirectional tuning of the absorber to both principal modes of the main structure, while damping is produced either by horizontal viscous dashpots or by vertical friction dashpots, connecting the BPA to the main structure. In this paper, a variant of BPA is proposed, where damping originates from the variable tangential friction force which develops between the pendulum mass and the 3D surface as a result of a spatially-varying friction coefficient pattern. Namely, a friction coefficient is proposed that varies along the pendulum surface in proportion to the modulus of the 3D surface gradient. With such an assumption, the dissipative model of the absorber can be proven to be nonlinear homogeneous in the small displacement domain. The resulting homogeneous BPA (HBPA) has a fundamental advantage over conventional friction-type absorbers, because its equivalent damping ratio results independent on the amplitude of oscillations, and therefore its optimal performance does not depend on the excitation level. On the other hand, the HBPA is more compact than viscously damped BPAs because it does not need the installation of dampers. This paper presents the analytical model of the HBPA and an optimal methodology for its design. Numerical simulations of single- and multi-story building structures under wind and earthquake loads are presented to compare the HBPA with classical viscously damped BPAs. It is shown that the HBPA is a promising alternative to existing BPA types and that homogeneous tangential friction is an effective means to realize systems provided with amplitude-independent damping.

Keywords: amplitude-independent damping, homogeneous friction, pendulum nonlinear dynamics, structural control, vibration resonant absorbers

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Authors: Calister Wingang Makebe, Wilson Agwanande Ambindei, Zangue Steve Carly Desobgo, Abraham Billu, Emmanuel Jong Nso, P. Nisha

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Traditional liquid-state fermentation processes of Annona muricata L. juice can result in fluctuating product quality and quantity due to difficulties in control and scale up. This work describes a laboratory-scale batch fermentation process to produce a probiotic Annona muricata L. enzymatically extracted juice, which was modeled using the Doehlert design with independent extraction factors being incubation time, temperature, and enzyme concentration. It aimed at a better understanding of the traditional process as an initial step for future optimization. Annona muricata L. juice was fermented with L. acidophilus (NCDC 291) (LA), L. casei (NCDC 17) (LC), and a blend of LA and LC (LCA) for 72 h at 37 °C. Experimental data were fitted into mathematical models (Monod, Logistic and Luedeking and Piret models) using MATLAB software, to describe biomass growth, sugar utilization, and organic acid production. The optimal fermentation time was obtained based on cell viability, which was 24 h for LC and 36 h for LA and LCA. The model was particularly effective in estimating biomass growth, reducing sugar consumption, and lactic acid production. The values of the determination coefficient, R2, were 0.9946, 0.9913 and 0.9946, while the residual sum of square error, SSE, was 0.2876, 0.1738 and 0.1589 for LC, LA and LCA, respectively. The growth kinetic parameters included the maximum specific growth rate, µm, which was 0.2876 h-1, 0.1738 h-1 and 0.1589 h-1, as well as the substrate saturation, Ks, with 9.0680 g/L, 9.9337 g/L and 9.0709 g/L respectively for LC, LA and LCA. For the stoichiometric parameters, the yield of biomass based on utilized substrate (YXS) was 50.7932, 3.3940 and 61.0202, and the yield of product based on utilized substrate (YPS) was 2.4524, 0.2307 and 0.7415 for LC, LA, and LCA, respectively. In addition, the maintenance energy parameter (ms) was 0.0128, 0.0001 and 0.0004 with respect to LC, LA and LCA. With the kinetic model proposed by Luedeking and Piret for lactic acid production rate, the growth associated and non-growth associated coefficients were determined as 1.0028 and 0.0109, respectively. The model was demonstrated for batch growth of LA, LC, and LCA in Annona muricata L. juice. The present investigation validates the potential of Annona muricata L. based medium for heightened economical production of a probiotic medium.

Keywords: L. acidophilus, L. casei, fermentation, modelling, kinetics

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Authors: M. Hussaina, K. Mahboobb, S. Z. Ilyasa, S. Shaheena

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Plume dispersion modeling is a computational procedure to establish a relationship between emissions, meteorology, atmospheric concentrations, deposition and other factors. The emission characteristics (stack height, stack diameter, release velocity, heat contents, chemical and physical properties of the gases/particle released etc.), terrain (surface roughness, local topography, nearby buildings) and meteorology (wind speed, stability, mixing height, etc.) are required for the modeling of the plume dispersion and estimation of ground and air concentration. During the early phase of Fukushima accident, plume dispersion modeling and decisions were taken for the implementation of protective measures. A difference in estimated results and decisions made by different countries for taking protective actions created a concern in local and international community regarding the exact identification of the safe zone. The current study is focused to highlight the importance of accurate and exact weather data availability, scientific approach for decision making for taking urgent protective actions, compatible and harmonized approach for plume dispersion modeling during a nuclear emergency. As a case study, the influence of meteorological data on plume dispersion modeling and decision-making process has been performed.

Keywords: decision making process, radiation doses, nuclear emergency, meteorological implications

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Authors: Kyu Jin Kim, Byung Kwan Oh, Hyo Seon Park

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The seismic responses-based structural health monitoring system has been performed to reduce seismic damage. The inter-story drift ratio which is the major index of the seismic capacity assessment is employed for estimating the seismic damage of buildings. Meanwhile, seismic response analysis to estimate the structural responses of building demands significantly high computational cost due to increasing number of high-rise and large buildings. To estimate the inter-story drift ratio of buildings from the earthquake efficiently, this paper suggests the estimation method of inter-story drift for buildings using an artificial neural network (ANN). In the method, the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is integrated with optimization algorithm to optimize the variable through evolutionary learning that refers to evolutionary radial basis function neural network (ERBFNN). The estimation method estimates the inter-story drift without seismic response analysis when the new earthquakes are subjected to buildings. The effectiveness of the estimation method is verified through a simulation using multi-degree of freedom system.

Keywords: structural health monitoring, inter-story drift ratio, artificial neural network, radial basis function neural network, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Imed Feki, Faouzi Msahli

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Selection of relevant parameters from a high dimensional process operation setting space is a problem frequently encountered in industrial process modelling. This paper presents a method for selecting the most relevant fabric physical parameters for each sensory quality feature. The proposed relevancy criterion has been developed using two approaches. The first utilizes a fuzzy sensitivity criterion by exploiting from experimental data the relationship between physical parameters and all the sensory quality features for each evaluator. Next an OWA aggregation procedure is applied to aggregate the ranking lists provided by different evaluators. In the second approach, another panel of experts provides their ranking lists of physical features according to their professional knowledge. Also by applying OWA and a fuzzy aggregation model, the data sensitivity-based ranking list and the knowledge-based ranking list are combined using our proposed percolation technique, to determine the final ranking list. The key issue of the proposed percolation technique is to filter automatically and objectively the relevant features by creating a gap between scores of relevant and irrelevant parameters. It permits to automatically generate threshold that can effectively reduce human subjectivity and arbitrariness when manually choosing thresholds. For a specific sensory descriptor, the threshold is defined systematically by iteratively aggregating (n times) the ranking lists generated by OWA and fuzzy models, according to a specific algorithm. Having applied the percolation technique on a real example, of a well known finished textile product especially the stonewashed denims, usually considered as the most important quality criteria in jeans’ evaluation, we separate the relevant physical features from irrelevant ones for each sensory descriptor. The originality and performance of the proposed relevant feature selection method can be shown by the variability in the number of physical features in the set of selected relevant parameters. Instead of selecting identical numbers of features with a predefined threshold, the proposed method can be adapted to the specific natures of the complex relations between sensory descriptors and physical features, in order to propose lists of relevant features of different sizes for different descriptors. In order to obtain more reliable results for selection of relevant physical features, the percolation technique has been applied for combining the fuzzy global relevancy and OWA global relevancy criteria in order to clearly distinguish scores of the relevant physical features from those of irrelevant ones.

Keywords: data sensitivity, feature selection, fuzzy logic, OWA operators, percolation technique

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Authors: Yee Hooi Min, Abdul Hadi, M. N., A. G. Kay Dora

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Form-finding has to be carried out for tensioned fabric structure in order to determine the initial equilibrium shape under prescribed support condition and pre-stress pattern. Tensioned fabric structures are normally designed to be in the form of equal tensioned surface. Tensioned fabric structure is highly suited to be used for realizing surfaces of complex or new forms. However, research study on a new form as a tensioned fabric structure has not attracted much attention. Another source of inspiration minimal surface which could be adopted as form for tensioned fabric structure is very crucial. The aim of this study is to propose initial equilibrium shape of tensioned fabric structures in the form of Monkey Saddle. Computational form-finding is frequently used to determine the possible form of uniformly stressed surfaces. A tensioned fabric structure must curve equally in opposite directions to give the resulting surface a three dimensional stability. In an anticlastic doubly curved surface, the sum of all positive and all negative curvatures is zero. This study provides an alternative choice for structural designer to consider the Monkey Saddle applied in tensioned fabric structures. The results on factors affecting initial equilibrium shape can serve as a reference for proper selection of surface parameter for achieving a structurally viable surface. Such in-sight will lead to improvement of rural basic infrastructure, economic gains, sustainability of built environment and green technology initiative.

Keywords: anticlastic, curvatures, form-finding, initial equilibrium shape, minimal surface, tensioned fabric structure

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Authors: Marita Heyns

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Job insecurity is a distressing phenomenon which has far reaching consequences for both employees and their organizations. Previously, much attention has been given to the link between job insecurity and individual level performance outcomes, while less is known about how subjectively perceived job insecurity might transfer beyond the individual level to affect performance of the organization on an aggregated level. Research focusing on how employees’ fear of job loss might affect the organization’s ability to respond proactively to volatility and drastic change through applying its capabilities of sensing, seizing, and reconfiguring, appears to be practically non-existent. Equally little is known about the potential underlying mechanisms through which job insecurity might affect the dynamic capabilities of an organization. This study examines how job insecurity might affect dynamic organizational capability through trust as an underling process. More specifically, it considered the simultaneous roles of trust at an impersonal (organizational) level as well as trust at an interpersonal level (in leaders and co-workers) as potential underlying mechanisms through which job insecurity might affect the organization’s dynamic capability to respond to opportunities and imminent, drastic change. A quantitative research approach and a stratified random sampling technique enabled the collection of data among 314 managers at four different plant sites of a large South African steel manufacturing organization undergoing dramatic changes. To assess the study hypotheses, the following statistical procedures were employed: Structural equation modelling was performed in Mplus to evaluate the measurement and structural models. The Chi-square values test for absolute fit as well as alternative fit indexes such as the Comparative Fit Index and the Tucker-Lewis Index, the Root Mean Square Error of Approximation and the Standardized Root Mean Square Residual were used as indicators of model fit. Composite reliabilities were calculated to evaluate the reliability of the factors. Finally, interaction effects were tested by using PROCESS and the construction of two-sided 95% confidence intervals. The findings indicate that job insecurity had a lower-than-expected detrimental effect on evaluations of the organization’s dynamic capability through the conducive buffering effects of trust in the organization and in its leaders respectively. In contrast, trust in colleagues did not seem to have any noticeable facilitative effect. The study proposes that both job insecurity and dynamic capability can be managed more effectively by also paying attention to factors that could promote trust in the organization and its leaders; some practical recommendations are given in this regard.

Keywords: dynamic organizational capability, impersonal trust, interpersonal trust, job insecurity

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Authors: M. J. Baum, B. Gibbes, A. Grinham, S. Albert, D. Gale, P. Fisher

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Alongside the rapid expansion of Seawater Reverse Osmosis technologies there is a concurrent increase in the production of hypersaline brine by-products. To minimize environmental impact, these by-products are commonly disposed into open-coastal environments via submerged diffuser systems as inclined dense jet outfalls. Despite the widespread implementation of this process, diffuser designs are typically based on small-scale laboratory experiments under idealistic quiescent conditions. Studies concerning diffuser performance in the field are limited. A set of experiments were conducted to assess the near field characteristics of brine disposal at the Gold Coast Desalination Plant offshore multiport diffuser. The aim of the field experiments was to determine the trajectory and dilution characteristics of the plume under various discharge configurations with production ranging 66 – 100% of plant operative capacity. The field monitoring system employed an unprecedented static array of temperature and electrical conductivity sensors in a three-dimensional grid surrounding a single diffuser port. Complimenting these measurements, Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers were also deployed to record current variability over the depth of the water column and wave characteristics. Recorded data suggested the open-coastal environment was highly active over the experimental duration with ambient velocities ranging 0.0 – 0.5 m∙s^-1, with considerable variability over the depth of the water column observed. Variations in background electrical conductivity corresponding to salinity fluctuations of ± 1.7 g∙kg^-1 were also observed. Increases in salinity were detected during plant operation and appeared to be most pronounced 10 – 30 m from the diffuser, consistent with trajectory predictions described by existing literature. Plume trajectories and respective dilutions extrapolated from salinity data are compared with empirical scaling arguments. Discharge properties were found to adequately correlate with modelling projections. Temporal and spatial variation of background processes and their subsequent influence upon discharge outcomes are discussed with a view to incorporating the influence of waves and ambient currents in the design of brine outfalls into the future.

Keywords: brine disposal, desalination, field study, negatively buoyant discharge

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Authors: Chyong-Ru Liu, Wen-Shiung Huang, Wan-Ching Tang, Shan-Pei Chen

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Two of the biggest challenges companies involved in sports and exercise information services face are how to strengthen participation in virtual sports/exercise communities and how to increase the ongoing participatoriness of those communities. In the past, relatively little research has explored mechanisms for strengthening alignment practice and community response from the perspective of self-construal, and as such this study seeks to explore the self-construal of virtual sports/exercise communities, the role it plays in the emotional commitment of forming communities, and the factor that can strengthen alignment practice. Moreover, which factor of the emotional commitment of forming virtual communities have the effect of strengthening interference in the process of transforming customer citizenship behaviors? This study collected 625 responses from the two leading websites in terms of fan numbers in the provision of information on road race and marathon events in Taiwan, with model testing conducted through linear structural equation modelling and the bootstrapping technique to test the proposed hypotheses. The results proved independent construal had a stronger positive direct effect on affective commitment to fellow customers than did interdependent construal, and the influences of affective commitment to fellow customers in enhancing customer citizenship behavior. Public self-consciousness moderates the relationships among independent self-construal and interdependent self-construal on effective commitment to fellow customers. Perceived playfulness moderates the relationships between effective commitment to fellow customers and customer citizenship behavior. The findings of this study provide significant insights for the researchers and related organizations. From the theoretical perspective, this is empirical research that investigated the self-construal theory and responses (i.e., affective commitment to fellow customers, customer citizenship behavior) in virtual sports/exercise communities. We further explore how to govern virtual sports/exercise community participants’ heterogeneity through public self-consciousness mechanism to align participants’ affective commitment. Moreover, perceived playfulness has the effect of strengthening effective commitment to fellow customers with customer citizenship behaviors. The results of this study can provide a foundation for the construction of future theories and can be provided to related organizations for reference in their planning of virtual communities.

Keywords: self-construal theory, public self-consciousness, affective commitment, customer citizenship behavior

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Authors: Josif Figueroa, Kush Bubbar, Greg Young-Morris

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The reliability evaluation of composite generation and bulk transmission systems is crucial for ensuring a reliable supply of electrical energy to significant system load points. However, evaluating adequacy indices using probabilistic methods like sequential Monte Carlo Simulation can be computationally expensive. Despite this, it is necessary when time-varying and interdependent resources, such as renewables and energy storage systems, are involved. Recent advances in solving power network optimization problems and parallel computing have improved runtime performance while maintaining solution accuracy. This work introduces CompositeSystems, an open-source Composite System Reliability Evaluation tool developed in Julia™, to address the current deficiencies of commercial and non-commercial tools. This work introduces its design, validation, and effectiveness, which includes analyzing two different formulations of the Optimal Power Flow problem. The simulations demonstrate excellent agreement with existing published studies while improving replicability and reproducibility. Overall, the proposed tool can provide valuable insights into the performance of transmission systems, making it an important addition to the existing toolbox for power system planning.

Keywords: open-source software, composite system reliability, optimization methods, Monte Carlo methods, optimal power flow

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Authors: Dimakatso Machetele, Kowiyou Yessoufou

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Whilst several studies indicated that road accident events might be more complex than thought, we have a limited scientific understanding of this complexity in South Africa. The present project proposes and tests a more comprehensive metamodel that integrates multiple causality relationships among variables previously linked to road accidents. This was done by fitting a structural equation model (SEM) to the data collected from various sources. The study also fitted the GARCH Model (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) to predict the future of road accidents in the country. The analysis shows that the number of road accidents has been increasing since 1935. The road fatality rate follows a polynomial shape following the equation: y = -0.0114x²+1.2378x-2.2627 (R²=0.76) with y = death rate and x = year. This trend results in an average death rate of 23.14 deaths per 100,000 people. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the number of crashes could be significantly explained by the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001), number of unregistered vehicles (P = 0.003) and the population of the country (P < 0.001). As opposed to expectation, the number of driver licenses issued and total distance traveled by vehicles do not correlate significantly with the number of crashes (P > 0.05). Furthermore, the analysis reveals that the number of casualties could be linked significantly to the number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001) and total distance traveled by vehicles (P = 0.03). As for the number of fatal crashes, the analysis reveals that the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered (P < 0.001) and unregistered vehicles (P < 0.001), the population of the country (P < 0.001) and the total distance traveled by vehicles (P < 0.001) correlate significantly with the number of fatal crashes. However, the number of casualties and again the number of driver licenses do not seem to determine the number of fatal crashes (P > 0.05). Finally, the number of crashes is predicted to be roughly constant overtime at 617,253 accidents for the next 10 years, with the worse scenario suggesting that this number may reach 1 896 667. The number of casualties was also predicted to be roughly constant at 93 531 overtime, although this number may reach 661 531 in the worst-case scenario. However, although the number of fatal crashes may decrease over time, it is forecasted to reach 11 241 fatal crashes within the next 10 years, with the worse scenario estimated at 19 034 within the same period. Finally, the number of fatalities is also predicted to be roughly constant at 14 739 but may also reach 172 784 in the worse scenario. Overall, the present study reveals the complexity of road accidents and allows us to propose several recommendations aimed to reduce the trend of road accidents, casualties, fatal crashes, and death in South Africa.

Keywords: road accidents, South Africa, statistical modelling, trends

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Authors: Norhan El Dallal

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The MENA region is a challenging, rapid urbanizing region, with a special profile; culturally, socially, economically and environmentally. Despite the diversity between different countries of the MENA region they all share similar urban challenges where extensive interventions are crucial. A climate sensitive region as the MENA region requires special attention for development, adaptation and mitigation. Integrating climatic and environmental parameters into the planning process to create a responsive urban form is the aim of this research in which “Parametric Urbanism” as a trend serves as a tool to reach a more sustainable urban morphology. An attempt to parameterize the relation between the climate and the urban form in a detailed manner is the main objective of the thesis. The aim is relating the different passive approaches suitable for the MENA region with the design guidelines of each and every part of the planning phase. Various conceptual scenarios for the network pattern and block subdivision generation based on computational models are the next steps after the parameterization. These theoretical models could be applied on different climatic zones of the dense communities of the MENA region to achieve an energy efficient neighborhood or city with respect to the urban form, morphology, and urban planning pattern. A final criticism of the theoretical model is to be conducted showing the feasibility of the proposed solutions economically. Finally some push and pull policies are to be proposed to help integrate these solutions into the planning process.

Keywords: parametric urbanism, climate responsive, urban form, urban and regional studies

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Authors: Christine Winberg, James Garraway

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Many key university documents, such as vision and mission statements and strategic plans, are aspirational and future-oriented. There is a wide range of future-oriented methods that are used in planning applications, ranging from mathematical modelling to expert opinions. Many of these methods have limitations, and planners using these tools might, for example, make the technical-rational assumption that their plans will unfold in a logical and inevitable fashion, thus underestimating the many complex forces that are at play in planning for an unknown future. This is the issue that this study addresses. The overall project aim was to assist a new university of technology in developing appropriate responses to its social responsibility, graduate employability and research missions in its strategic plan. The specific research question guiding the research activities and approach was: how might the use of innovative future-oriented planning tools enable or constrain a strategic planning process? The research objective was to engage collaborating groups in the use of an innovative tool to develop and assess future scenarios, for the purpose of developing deeper understandings of possible futures and their challenges. The scenario planning tool chosen was ‘fictive scripting’, an analytical technique derived from Technology Forecasting and Innovation Studies. Fictive scripts are future projections that also take into account the present shape of the world and current developments. The process thus began with a critical diagnosis of the present, highlighting its tensions and frictions. The collaborative groups then developed fictive scripts, each group producing a future scenario that foregrounded different institutional missions, their implications and possible consequences. The scripts were analyzed with a view to identifying their potential contribution to the university’s strategic planning exercise. The unfolding fictive scripts revealed a number of insights in terms of unexpected benefits, unexpected challenges, and unexpected consequences. These insights were not evident in previous strategic planning exercises. The contribution that this study offers is to show how better choices can be made and potential pitfalls avoided through a systematic foresight exercise. When universities develop strategic planning documents, they are looking into the future. In this paper it is argued that the use of appropriate tools for future-oriented exercises, can help planners to understand more fully what achieving desired outcomes might entail, what challenges might be encountered, and what unexpected consequences might ensue.

Keywords: fictive scripts, scenarios, strategic planning, technological forecasting

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Authors: Volker Landersheim, Daria Manushyna, Thinh Pham, Dai-Duong Tran, Thomas Geury, Omar Hegazy, Steven Wilkins

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Air pollution is one of the emerging problems in our society. Targets of reduction of CO₂ emissions address low-carbon and resource-efficient transport. (Plug-in) hybrid electric propulsion concepts offer the possibility to reduce total cost of ownership (TCO) and emissions for public transport vehicles (e.g., bus application). In this context, typically, diesel engines are used to form the hybrid propulsion system of the vehicle. Though the technological development of diesel engines experience major advantages, some challenges such as the high amount of particle emissions remain relevant. Gaseous fuels (i.e., compressed natural gases (CNGs) or liquefied petroleum gases (LPGs) represent an attractive alternative to diesel because of their composition. In the framework of the research project 'Optimised Real-world Cost-Competitive Modular Hybrid Architecture' (ORCA), which was funded by the EU, two different hybrid-electric propulsion concepts have been investigated: one using a diesel engine as internal combustion engine and one using CNG as fuel. The aim of the current study is to analyze specific benefits for the aforementioned hybrid propulsion systems for predefined driving scenarios with regard to emissions and total cost of ownership in bus application. Engine models based on experimental data for diesel and CNG were developed. For the purpose of designing optimal energy management strategies for each propulsion system, maps-driven or quasi-static models for specific engine types are used in the simulation framework. An analogous modelling approach has been chosen to represent emissions. This paper compares the two concepts regarding their CO₂ and NOx emissions. This comparison is performed for relevant bus missions (urban, suburban, with and without zero-emission zone) and with different energy management strategies. In addition to the emissions, also the downsizing potential of the combustion engine has been analysed to minimize the powertrain TCO (pTCO) for plug-in hybrid electric buses. The results of the performed analyses show that the hybrid vehicle concept using the CNG engine shows advantages both with respect to emissions as well as to pTCO. The pTCO is 10% lower, CO₂ emissions are 13% lower, and the NOx emissions are more than 50% lower than with the diesel combustion engine. These results are consistent across all usage profiles under investigation.

Keywords: bus transport, emissions, hybrid propulsion, pTCO, CNG

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Authors: Zekang Lan, Yan Xu, Yingkun Huang, Dian Huang, Shengzhong Feng

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Jobs on high-performance computing (HPC) clusters can suffer significant performance degradation due to inter-job network interference. Topology-aware job allocation problem (TJAP) is such a problem that decides how to dedicate nodes to specific applications to mitigate inter-job network interference. In this paper, we study the window-based TJAP on a fat-tree network aiming at minimizing the cost of communication hop, a defined inter-job interference metric. The window-based approach for scheduling repeats periodically, taking the jobs in the queue and solving an assignment problem that maps jobs to the available nodes. Two special allocation strategies are considered, i.e., static continuity assignment strategy (SCAS) and dynamic continuity assignment strategy (DCAS). For the SCAS, a 0-1 integer programming is developed. For the DCAS, an approach called neural simulated algorithm (NSA), which is an extension to simulated algorithm (SA) that learns a repair operator and employs them in a guided heuristic search, is proposed. The efficacy of NSA is demonstrated with a computational study against SA and SCIP. The results of numerical experiments indicate that both the model and algorithm proposed in this paper are effective.

Keywords: high-performance computing, job allocation, neural simulated annealing, topology-aware

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Authors: Pooja Rani, G. S. Mahapatra, S. K. Pandey

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In this paper, we propose a novel approach of Neural Network and Particle Swarm Optimization methods for software reliability prediction. We first explain how to apply compound function in neural network so that we can derive a Flexible Logistic (S-shaped) Growth Curve (FLGC) model. This model mathematically represents software failure as a random process and can be used to evaluate software development status during testing. To avoid trapping in local minima, we have applied Particle Swarm Optimization method to train proposed model using failure test data sets. We drive our proposed model using computational based intelligence modeling. Thus, proposed model becomes Neuro-Particle Swarm Optimization (NPSO) model. We do test result with different inertia weight to update particle and update velocity. We obtain result based on best inertia weight compare along with Personal based oriented PSO (pPSO) help to choose local best in network neighborhood. The applicability of proposed model is demonstrated through real time test data failure set. The results obtained from experiments show that the proposed model has a fairly accurate prediction capability in software reliability.

Keywords: software reliability, flexible logistic growth curve model, software cumulative failure prediction, neural network, particle swarm optimization

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Authors: S. Anuradha, V. Sandeep Kumar

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The high Peak to Average Power Ratio (PAR) in Filter Bank Multicarrier with Offset Quadrature Amplitude Modulation (FBMC-OQAM) can significantly reduce power efficiency and performance. In this paper, we address the problem of PAPR reduction for FBMC-OQAM systems using Tone Reservation (TR) technique. Due to the overlapping structure of FBMCOQAM signals, directly applying TR schemes of OFDM systems to FBMC-OQAM systems is not effective. We improve the tone reservation (TR) technique by employing sliding window with Active Constellation Extension for the PAPR reduction of FBMC-OQAM signals, called sliding window tone reservation Active Constellation Extension (SW-TRACE) technique. The proposed SW-TRACE technique uses the peak reduction tones (PRTs) of several consecutive data blocks to cancel the peaks of the FBMC-OQAM signal inside a window, with dynamically extending outer constellation points in active(data-carrying) channels, within margin-preserving constraints, in order to minimize the peak magnitude. Analysis and simulation results compared to the existing Tone Reservation (TR) technique for FBMC/OQAM system. The proposed method SW-TRACE has better PAPR performance and lower computational complexity.

Keywords: FBMC-OQAM, peak-to-average power ratio, sliding window, tone reservation Active Constellation Extension

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Authors: Aleš Florian, Lenka Ševelová

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Complex sensitivity analysis of stresses in a concrete slab of the real type of rigid pavement made from recycled materials is performed. The computational model of the pavement is designed as a spatial (3D) model, is based on a nonlinear variant of the finite element method that respects the structural nonlinearity, enables to model different arrangements of joints, and the entire model can be loaded by the thermal load. Interaction of adjacent slabs in joints and contact of the slab and the subsequent layer are modeled with the help of special contact elements. Four concrete slabs separated by transverse and longitudinal joints and the additional structural layers and soil to the depth of about 3m are modeled. The thickness of individual layers, physical and mechanical properties of materials, characteristics of joints, and the temperature of the upper and lower surface of slabs are supposed to be random variables. The modern simulation technique Updated Latin Hypercube Sampling with 20 simulations is used. For sensitivity analysis the sensitivity coefficient based on the Spearman rank correlation coefficient is utilized. As a result, the estimates of influence of random variability of individual input variables on the random variability of principal stresses s1 and s3 in 53 points on the upper and lower surface of the concrete slabs are obtained.

Keywords: concrete, FEM, pavement, sensitivity, simulation

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Authors: Jirod Chaisan, Somchai Maneewan, Chantana Punlek, Ninnart Rachapradit, Surapong Chirarattananon, Pattana Rakkwamsuk

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In this paper, simulation modeling of heat transfer, air flow and distribution emitted from CO2 was performed in a regenerated air. The study room was divided in 3 types: common room, small lecture room and large lecture room under evaluated condition in two case: released and unreleased CO2 including of used hybrid air ventilation system for regenerated air under Thailand climate conditions. The carbon dioxide was located on the center of the room and released rate approximately 900-1200 ppm corresponded with indoor air quality standard (IAQs). The indoor air in the thermal comfort zone was calculated and simulated with the numerical method that using real data from the handbook guideline. The results of the study showed that in the case of hybrid air ventilation system explained thermal and CO2 distribution due to the system was adapted significantly in the comfort zone. The results showed that when CO2 released on the center of the other room, the CO2 high concentration in comfort zone so used hybrid air ventilation that decreased CO2 with regeneration air including of reduced temperature indoor. However, the study is simulation modeling and guideline only so the future should be the experiment of hybrid air ventilation system for evaluated comparison of the systems.

Keywords: air ventilation, indoor air quality, thermal comfort, thermoelectric, photovoltaic, dehumidify

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Authors: Celso L. Fernando, Toshio Yoshii, Takahiro Tsubota

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Understanding the causes of a road accident and predicting their occurrence is key to preventing deaths and serious injuries from road accident events. Traditional statistical methods such as the Poisson and the Logistics regressions have been used to find the association of the traffic environmental factors with the accident occurred; recently, an artificial neural network, ANN, a computational technique that learns from historical data to make a more accurate prediction, has emerged. Although the ability to make accurate predictions, the ANN has difficulty dealing with highly unbalanced attribute patterns distribution in the training dataset; in such circumstances, the ANN treats the minority group as noise. However, in the real world data, the minority group is often the group of interest; e.g., in the road traffic accident data, the events of the accident are the group of interest. This study proposes a combination of the k-means with the ANN to improve the predictive ability of the neural network model by alleviating the effect of the unbalanced distribution of the attribute patterns in the training dataset. The results show that the proposed method improves the ability of the neural network to make a prediction on a highly unbalanced distributed attribute patterns dataset; however, on an even distributed attribute patterns dataset, the proposed method performs almost like a standard neural network.

Keywords: accident risks estimation, artificial neural network, deep learning, k-mean, road safety

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Authors: Srushti Patil, Preethi Baligar, Gopalkrishna Joshi, Gururaj N. Bhadri

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In designing learning environments, the instructional strategies can be tailored to suit the learning style of an individual to ensure effective learning. In this study, the information shared on social media like Facebook is being used to predict learning style of a learner. Previous research studies have shown that Facebook data can be used to predict user personality. Users with a particular personality exhibit an inherent pattern in their digital footprint on Facebook. The proposed work aims to correlate the user's’ personality, predicted from Facebook data to the learning styles, predicted through questionnaires. For Millennial learners, Facebook has become a primary means for information sharing and interaction with peers. Thus, it can serve as a rich bed for research and direct the design of learning environments. The authors have conducted this study in an undergraduate freshman engineering course. Data from 320 freshmen Facebook users was collected. The same users also participated in the learning style and personality prediction survey. The Kolb’s Learning style questionnaires and Big 5 personality Inventory were adopted for the survey. The users have agreed to participate in this research and have signed individual consent forms. A specific page was created on Facebook to collect user data like personal details, status updates, comments, demographic characteristics and egocentric network parameters. This data was captured by an application created using Python program. The data captured from Facebook was subjected to text analysis process using the Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count dictionary. An analysis of the data collected from the questionnaires performed reveals individual student personality and learning style. The results obtained from analysis of Facebook, learning style and personality data were then fed into an automatic classifier that was trained by using the data mining techniques like Rule-based classifiers and Decision trees. This helps to predict the user personality and learning styles by analysing the common patterns. Rule-based classifiers applied for text analysis helps to categorize Facebook data into positive, negative and neutral. There were totally two models trained, one to predict the personality from Facebook data; another one to predict the learning styles from the personalities. The results show that the classifier model has high accuracy which makes the proposed method to be a reliable one for predicting the user personality and learning styles.

Keywords: educational data mining, Facebook, learning styles, personality traits

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Authors: Mouna Hamed, Ammar B. Brahim

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The objective of this work was to develop a theoretical model to study the dynamic thermal behavior of a flat plate solar collector integrated with a phase change material (PCM). The PCM acted as a heat source for the solar system during low intensity solar radiation and night. The energy balance equations for the various components of the collector as well as for the PCM were formulated and numerically solved using MATLAB computational program. The effect of natural convection on heat during the melting process was taken into account by using an effective thermal conductivity. The model was used to investigate the effect of inlet water temperature, water mass flow rate, and PCM thickness on the outlet water temperature and the melt fraction during charging and discharging modes. A comparison with a collector without PCM was made. Results showed that charging and discharging processes of PCM have six stages. The adding of PCM caused a decrease in temperature during charge and an increase during discharge. The rise was most enhanced for higher inlet water temperature, PCM thickness and for lower mass flow rate. Analysis indicated that the complete melting time was shorter than the solidification time due to the high heat transfer coefficient during melting. The increases in PCM height and mass flow rate were not linear with the melting and solidification times.

Keywords: thermal energy storage, phase change material, melting, solidification

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Authors: Selfa Johnson Zwalnan, Nanchen Nimyel Caleb, Gideon Duvuna Ayuba

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Air conditioning accounts for a significant share of the overall energy consumed in residential buildings. Solar thermal gains in buildings account for a significant component of the air conditioning load in buildings. This study compares the solar thermal gain and air conditioning load of a proposed building design with a typical conventional building in the climatic conditions of Jos, Nigeria, using a combined experimental and computational method using TRNSYS software. According to the findings of this study, the proposed design building's annual average solar thermal gains are lower compared to the reference building's average solar heat gains. The study case building's decreased solar heat gain is mostly attributable to the somewhat lower temperature of the building zones because of the greater building volume and lower fenestration ratio (ratio of external opening area to the area of the external walls). This result shows that the innovative building design adjusts to the local climate better than the standard conventional construction in Jos to maintain a suitable temperature within the building. This finding means that the air-conditioning electrical energy consumption per volume of the proposed building design will be lower than that of a conventional building design.

Keywords: building simulation, solar gain, comfort temperature, temperature, carbon foot print

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Authors: H. Pegram, R. Stevens, L. De Girolamo

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Aligned electrospun nanofibres act as effective neuronal and glial cell scaffolds that can be layered to contain multiple sheets harboring different cell populations. This allows personalised biofunctional prostheses to be manufactured with both acellular and cellularised layers for the treatment of spinal cord injury. Additionally, the manufacturing route may be configured to produce in-vitro 3D cell based model of spinal cord injury to aid drug development and enhance prosthesis performance. The goal of this investigation was to optimise the multi-layer scaffold design parameters for prosthesis manufacture, to enable the development of multi-layer patient specific implant therapies. The work has also focused on the fabricating aligned nanofibre scaffolds that promote in-vitro neuronal and glial cell population growth, cell-to-cell interaction and long-term survival following trauma to mimic an in-vivo spinal cord lesion. The approach has established reproducible lesions and has identified markers of trauma and regeneration marked by effective neuronal migration across the lesion with glial support. The investigation has advanced the development of an in-vitro model of traumatic spinal cord injury and has identified a route to manufacture prostheses which target the repair spinal cord injury. Evidence collated to investigate the multi-layer concept suggests that physical cues provided by nanofibres provide both a natural extra-cellular matrix (ECM) like environment and controls cell proliferation and migration. Specifically, aligned nanofibre layers act as a guidance system for migrating and elongating neurons. On a larger scale, material type in multi-layer systems also has an influence in inter-layer migration as cell types favour different material types. Results have shown that layering nanofibre membranes create a multi-level scaffold system which can enhance or prohibit cell migration between layers. It is hypothesised that modifying nanofibre layer material permits control over neuronal/glial cell migration. Using this concept, layering of neuronal and glial cells has become possible, in the context of tissue engineering and also modelling in-vitro induced lesions.

Keywords: electrospinning, layering, lesion, modeling, nanofibre

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Authors: Kevin Molina, Daniel Ortega, Manuel Martinez, Andres Gonzalez-Estrada, William Pinto

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Due to the increasing environmental impact, the wind energy is getting strong. This research studied the relationship between the power produced by a horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT) and the aerodynamic profiles used for its construction. The analysis is studied using the Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD), presenting the parallel between the energy generated by a turbine designed with selected profiles and another one optimized. For the study, a selection process was carried out from profile NACA 6 digits recommended by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for the construction of this type of turbines. The selection was taken into account different characteristics of the wind (speed and density) and the profiles (aerodynamic coefficients Cl and Cd to different Reynolds and incidence angles). From the selected profiles, was carried out a sensitivity analysis optimization process between its geometry and the aerodynamic forces that are induced on it. The 3D model of the turbines was realized using the Blade Element Momentum method (BEM) and both profiles. The flow fields on the turbines were simulated, obtaining the forces induced on the blade, the torques produced and an increase of 3% in power due to the optimized profiles. Therefore, the results show that the sensitivity analysis optimization process can assist to increment the wind turbine power.

Keywords: blade element momentum, blade, fluid structure interaction, horizontal axis wind turbine, profile design

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Authors: R. Malisa, E. Schwella, K. I. Theletsane

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Due to climate change, population growth and rapid urbanization, the demand for water in South Africa is inevitably surpassing supply. To address similar challenges globally, there has been a paradigm shift from conventional urban waste water management “government” to a “governance” paradigm. From the governance paradigm, Integrated Urban Water Management (IUWM) principle emerged. This principle emphasizes efficient urban waste water treatment and production of high-quality recyclable effluent. In so doing mimicking natural water systems, in their processes of recycling water efficiently, and averting depletion of natural water resources.  The objective of this study was to investigate drivers of shifting the current urban waste water management approach from a “government” paradigm towards “governance”. The study was conducted through Interactive Management soft systems research methodology which follows a qualitative research design. A case study methodology was employed, guided by realism research philosophy. Qualitative data gathered were analyzed through interpretative structural modelling using Concept Star for Professionals Decision-Making tools (CSPDM) version 3.64.  The constructed model deduced that the main drivers in shifting the Stellenbosch municipal urban waste water management towards IUWM “governance” principles are mainly social elements characterized by overambitious expectations of the public on municipal water service delivery, mis-interpretation of the constitution on access to adequate clean water and sanitation as a human right and perceptions on recycling water by different communities. Inadequate public participation also emerged as a strong driver. However, disruptive events such as draught may play a positive role in raising an awareness on the value of water, resulting in a shift on the perceptions on recycled water. Once the social elements are addressed, the alignment of governance and administration elements towards IUWM are achievable. Hence, the point of departure for the desired paradigm shift is the change of water service authorities and serviced communities’ perceptions and behaviors towards shifting urban waste water management approaches from “government” to “governance” paradigm.

Keywords: integrated urban water management, urban water system, wastewater governance, wastewater treatment works

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Authors: Ahmed Negm, George Aggidis, Xiandong Ma

Abstract:

With the diverse nature of urban cities, customer demand patterns, landscape topologies or even seasonal weather trends; managing our water distribution networks (WDNs) has proved a complex task. These unpredictable circumstances manifest as pipe failures, intermittent supply and burst events thus adding to water loss, energy waste and increased carbon emissions. Whilst these events are unavoidable, advanced pressure management has proved an effective tool to control and mitigate them. Henceforth, water utilities have struggled with developing a real-time control method that is resilient when confronting the challenges of water distribution. In this paper we use deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms as a novel pressure control strategy to minimise pressure violations and leakage under both burst and background leakage conditions. Agents based on asynchronous actor critic (A2C) and recurrent proximal policy optimisation (Recurrent PPO) were trained and compared to benchmarked optimisation algorithms (differential evolution, particle swarm optimisation. A2C manages to minimise leakage by 32.48% under burst conditions and 67.17% under background conditions which was the highest performance in the DRL algorithms. A2C and Recurrent PPO performed well in comparison to the benchmarks with higher processing speed and lower computational effort.

Keywords: deep reinforcement learning, pressure management, water distribution networks, leakage management

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