Search results for: coal price

Authors: H. R. Kamali, A. Sadegheih, M. A. Vahdat-Zad, H. Khademi-Zare

Abstract:

In this paper, a single product, multi-echelon, multi-period closed loop supply chain is surveyed, including a variety of costs, time conditions, and capacities, to plan and determine the values and time of the components procurement, production, distribution, recycling and disposal specially for high-tech products that undergo a decreasing production cost and sale price over time. For this purpose, the mathematic model of the problem that is a kind of mixed integer linear programming is presented, and it is finally proved that the problem belongs to the category of NP-hard problems.

Keywords: closed loop supply chain, continuous price decrease, NP-hard, planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 330

Authors: V. Benedico, C. Anacleto, A. Bearzi, L. Brice, V. Delahaye

Abstract:

The aim in present paper is to construct an affordable and reliable commodity prices based on a recalculation of its cost through time which allows visualize the potential risks and thus, take more appropriate decisions regarding forecasts. Here attention has been focused on Levy model, more reliable and realistic than classical random Gaussian one as it takes into consideration observed abrupt jumps in case of sudden price variation. In application to Energy Trading sector where it has never been used before, equations corresponding to Levy model have been written for electricity pricing in European market. Parameters have been set in order to predict and simulate the price and its evolution through time to remarkable accuracy. As predicted by Levy model, the results show significant spikes which reach unconventional levels contrary to currently used Brownian model.

Keywords: commodity pricing, Lévy Model, price spikes, electricity market

Procedia PDF Downloads 395

Authors: B. A. Mir, Asim Malik

Abstract:

Bottom ash is a by-product of the combustion process of coal in furnaces in the production of electricity in thermal power plants. In India, about 75% of total power is produced by using pulverized coal. The coal of India has a high ash content which leads to the generation of a huge quantity of bottom ash per year posing the dual problem of environmental pollution and difficulty in disposal. This calls for establishing strategies to use this industry by-product effectively and efficiently. However, its large-scale utilization is possible only in geotechnical applications, either alone or with soil. In the present investigation, bottom ash was collected from National Capital Power Station Dadri, Uttar Pradesh, India. Test samples of bottom ash admixed with 20% clayey soil were prepared and treated with different cement content by weight and subjected to various laboratory tests for assessing its suitability as an engineered construction material. This study has shown that use of 10% cement content is a viable chemical additive to enhance the mechanical properties of bottom ash, which can be used effectively as an engineered construction material in various geotechnical applications. More importantly, it offers an interesting potential for making use of an industrial waste to overcome challenges posed by bottom ash for a sustainable environment.

Keywords: bottom ash, environmental pollution, solid waste, sustainable environment, waste utilization

Procedia PDF Downloads 222

Authors: Bangkit Adhi Nugraha, Bambang Suripto

Abstract:

On September 2016 Bank Indonesia (BI) release regulation no.18/18/PBI/2016 that permit bank clients for using the FX option call spread USD/IDR. Basically, this product is a combination between clients buy FX call option (pay premium) and sell FX call option (receive premium) to protect against currency depreciation while also capping the potential upside with cheap premium cost. BI classifies this product as a structured product. The structured product is combination at least two financial instruments, either derivative or non-derivative instruments. The call spread is the first structured product against IDR permitted by BI since 2009 as response the demand increase from Indonesia firms on FX hedging through derivative for protecting market risk their foreign currency asset or liability. The composition of hedging products on Indonesian FX market increase from 35% on 2015 to 40% on 2016, the majority on swap product (FX forward, FX swap, cross currency swap). Swap is formulated by interest rate difference of the two currency pairs. The cost of swap product is 7% for USD/IDR with one year USD/IDR volatility 13%. That cost level makes swap products seem expensive for hedging buyers. Because call spread cost (around 1.5-3%) cheaper than swap, the most Indonesian firms are using NDF FX call spread USD/IDR on offshore with outstanding amount around 10 billion USD. The cheaper cost of call spread is the main advantage for hedging buyers. The problem arises because BI regulation requires the call spread buyer doing the dynamic hedging. That means, if call spread buyer choose strike price 1 and strike price 2 and volatility USD/IDR exchange rate surpass strike price 2, then the call spread buyer must buy another call spread with strike price 1’ (strike price 1’ = strike price 2) and strike price 2’ (strike price 2’ > strike price 1‘). It could make the premium cost of call spread doubled or even more and dismiss the purpose of hedging buyer to find the cheapest hedging cost. It is very crucial for the buyer to choose best optimum strike price before entering into the transaction. To help hedging buyer find the optimum strike price and avoid expensive multiple premium cost, we observe ten years 2005-2015 historical data of USD/IDR volatility to be compared with the price movement of the call spread USD/IDR using Garman–Kohlhagen Model (as a common formula on FX option pricing). We use statistical tools to analysis data correlation, understand nature of call spread price movement over ten years, and determine factors affecting price movement. We select some range of strike price and tenor and calculate the probability of dynamic hedging to occur and how much it’s cost. We found USD/IDR currency pairs is too uncertain and make dynamic hedging riskier and more expensive. We validated this result using one year data and shown small RMS. The study result could be used to understand nature of FX call spread and determine optimum strike price for hedging plan.

Keywords: FX call spread USD/IDR, USD/IDR volatility statistical analysis, Garman–Kohlhagen Model on FX Option USD/IDR, Bank Indonesia Regulation no.18/18/PBI/2016

Procedia PDF Downloads 350

Authors: Marc Evenst Jn Jacques, Sophie Bernard

Abstract:

Electrical and electronic applications, as well as rechargeable batteries, are common in any economy. They also contain a number of important and valuable metals. It is critical to investigate the impact of these new materials or volume sources on the metal market dynamics. This paper investigates the impact of responsible recycling within the European region on metal price volatility. As far as we know, no empirical studies have been conducted to assess the role of metal recycling in metal market price volatility. The goal of this paper is to test the claim that metal recycling helps to cushion price volatility. A set of circular economy indicators/variables, namely, 1) annual total trade values of recycled metals, 2) annual volume of scrap traded and 3) circular material use rate, and 4) information about recycling, are used to estimate the volatility of monthly spot prices of regular metals. A combination of the GARCH-MIDAS model for mixed frequency data sampling and a simple GARCH (1,1) model for the same frequency variables was adopted to examine the potential links between each variable and price volatility. We discovered that from 2010 to 2019, except for Nickel, scrap consumption (Millions of tons), Scrap Trade Values, and Recycled Material use rate had no significant impact on the price volatility of standard metals (Aluminum, Lead) and precious metals (Gold and Platinum). Worldwide interest in recycling has no impact on returns or volatility. Specific interest in metal recycling did have a link to the mean return equation for Aluminum, Gold and to the volatility equation for lead and Nickel.

Keywords: recycling, circular economy, price volatility, GARCH, mixed data sampling

Procedia PDF Downloads 20

Authors: Thapelo Aubrey Motsieng

Abstract:

Fluidized bed combustion (FBC) is a clean coal technology used in the combustion of low-grade coals for power generation. The production of large solid wastes such as bottom ashes from this process is a problem. The bottom ash contains some toxic elements which can leach out soils and contaminate surface and ground water; for this reason, they can neither be disposed of in landfills nor lagoons anymore. The production of geopolymers from bottom ash for structural and concrete applications is an option for their disposal. In this study, the waste bottom ash obtained from the combustion of three low grade South African coals in a bubbling fluidized bed reactor was used to produce geopolymers. The geopolymers were cured in a household microwave. The results showed that the microwave curing enhanced the reactivity and strength of the geopolymers.

Keywords: bottom ash, geopolymers, coal, compressive strength

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: Muhammad Zia Ullah Baig, Atiq Uz Zama

Abstract:

The motivation of the project is to facilitate the governance body, as well as the common man in his/her daily life consuming product rates, to easily monitor the expense, to control the budget with the help of single SMS (message), e-mail facility, and to manage governance body by task management system. The system will also be capable of finding irregularities being done by the concerned department in mitigating the complaints generated by the customer and also provide a solution to overcome problems. We are building a system that easily controls the price control system of any country, we will feeling proud to give this system free of cost to Indian Government also. The system is able to easily manage and control the price control department of government all over the country. Price control department run in different cities under City District Government, so the system easily run in different cities with different SMS Code and decentralize Database ensure the non-functional requirement of system (scalability, reliability, availability, security, safety). The customer request for the government official price list with respect to his/her city SMS code (price list of all city available on website or application), the server will forward the price list through a SMS, if the product is not available according to the price list the customer generate a complaint through an SMS or using website/smartphone application, complaint is registered in complaint database and forward to inspection department when the complaint is entertained, the inspection department will forward a message about the complaint to customer. Inspection department physically checks the seller who does not follow the price list, but the major issue of the system is corruption, may be inspection officer will take a bribe and resolve the complaint (complaint is fake) in that case the customer will not use the system. The major issue of the system is to distinguish the fake and real complain and fight for corruption in the department. To counter the corruption, our strategy is to rank the complain if the same type of complaint is generated the complaint is in high rank and the higher authority will also notify about that complain, now the higher authority of department have reviewed the complaint and its history, the officer who resolve that complaint in past and the action against the complaint, these data will help in decision-making process, if the complaint was resolved because the officer takes bribe, the higher authority will take action against that officer. When the price of any good is decided the market/former representative is also there, with the mutual understanding of both party the price is decided, the system facilitate the decision-making process. The system shows the price history of any goods, inflation rate, available supply, demand, and the gap between supply and demand, these data will help to allot for the decision-making process.

Keywords: price control, goods, government, inspection, department, customer, employees

Procedia PDF Downloads 381

Authors: Min Wang, Sergey Utev

Abstract:

The lessons from the 2007-09 global financial crisis have driven scientific research, which considers the design of new methodologies and financial models in the global market. The quantum mechanics approach was introduced in the unpredictable stock market modeling. One famous quantum tool is Feynman path integral method, which was used to model insurance risk by Tamturk and Utev and adapted to formalize the path-dependent option pricing by Hao and Utev. The research is based on the path-dependent calculation method, which is motivated by the Feynman path integral method. The path calculation can be studied in two ways, one way is to label, and the other is computational. Labeling is a part of the representation of objects, and generating functions can provide many different ways of representing share price paths. In this paper, the recent works on graphical theoretical construction of individual share price path via matroid is presented. Firstly, a study is done on the knowledge of matroid, relationship between lattice path matroid and Tutte polynomials and ways to connect points in the lattice path matroid and Tutte polynomials is suggested. Secondly, It is found that a general binary tree can be validly constructed from a connected lattice path matroid rather than general lattice path matroid. Lastly, it is suggested that there is a way to represent share price paths via a general binary tree, and an algorithm is developed to construct share price paths from general binary trees. A relationship is also provided between lattice integer points and Tutte polynomials of a transversal matroid. Use this way of connection together with the algorithm, a share price path can be constructed from a given connected lattice path matroid.

Keywords: combinatorial construction, graphical representation, matroid, path calculation, share price, Tutte polynomial

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Haowen Xi

Abstract:

We propose and solve exactly a class of non-linear generalization of the Black-Scholes process of stochastic differential equations describing price bubble and crashes dynamics. As a result of nonlinear positive feedback, the faster-than-exponential price positive growth (bubble forming) and negative price growth (crash forming) are found to be the power-law finite-time singularity in which bubbles and crashes price formation ending at finite critical time tc. While most literature on the market bubble and crash process focuses on the nonlinear positive feedback mechanism aspect, very few studies concern the noise level on the same process. The present work adds to the market bubble and crashes literature by studying the external sources noise influence on the critical time tc of the bubble forming and crashes forming. Two main results will be discussed: (1) the analytical expression of expected value of the critical time is found and unexpected critical slowing down due to the coupling external noise is predicted; (2) numerical simulations of the nonlinear stochastic equation is presented, and the probability distribution of Prob(tc) is found to be the inverse gamma function.

Keywords: bubble, crash, finite-time-singular, numerical simulation, price dynamics, stochastic differential equations

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: M. Bokhtiar Hasan, M. Delowar Hossain, Abu N. M. Wahid

Abstract:

The principal aim of the study is to find out a way to effectively manage the agricultural risks like price volatility, weather risks, and fund shortage. To hedge price volatility, farmers sometimes make contracts with agro-traders but fail to protect themselves effectively due to not having legal framework for such contracts. The study extensively reviews existing literature and find evidence that the majority studies either deal with price volatility or weather risks. If we could address these risks through a single model, it would be more useful to both the farmers and traders. Intrinsically, the authors endeavor in this regard, and the key contribution of this study basically lies in it. Initially, we conduct a small survey aspiring to identify the shortcomings of existing contracts. Later, we propose a model encompassing forward and insurance contracts together where forward contract will be used to hedge price volatility and insurance contract will be used to protect weather risks. Contribution/Originality: The study adds to the existing literature through proposing an integrated model comprising of forward contract and crop insurance which will support both farmers and traders to cope with the agricultural risks like price volatility, weather hazards, and fund shortage. JEL Classifications: O13, Q13

Keywords: agriculture, forward contract, insurance contract, risk management, model

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Jiahau Guo, Yihe Zhang

Abstract:

This paper proposes solutions for pricing options on stocks paying discrete dividends in markets with daily price limits. We first extend the intraday density function of Guo and Chang (2020) to a multi-day one and use the framework of Haug et al. (2003) to value European options on stocks paying discrete dividends. Next, we adopt the fast Fourier transform (FFT) to derive accurate and efficient formulae for American options and further employ the three-point Richardson extrapolation to accelerate the computation. Finally, the accuracy of our proposed methods is verified by simulations.

Keywords: daily price limit, discrete dividend, early exercise, fast Fourier transform, multi-day density function, Richardson extrapolation

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: Sucihatiningsih Dian Wisika Prajanti, Himawan Arif Susanto

Abstract:

Fruits are perishable products and have relatively low price, especially at harvest time. Generally, farmers only sell the products shortly after the harvest time without any processing. Farmers also only play role as price takers leading them to have less power to set the price. Sometimes, farmers are manipulated by middlemen, especially during abundant harvest. Therefore, it requires an effort to cultivate fruits and create innovation to make them more durable and have higher economic value. The purpose of this research is how to increase the added- value of fruits that have high economic value. The research involved 60 farmers of Salak fruit as the sample. Then, descriptive analysis was used to analyze the data in this study. The results showed the selling price of Salak fruit is very low. Hence, to increase the added-value of the fruits, fruit processing is carried out by freezing - frying which can cause the fruits last longer. In addition to increase these added-value, the products can be accommodated for further processed without worrying about their crops rotted or unsold.

Keywords: fruits processing, Salak fruit, freezing frying, farmer’s welfare, Sleman, Yogyakarta

Procedia PDF Downloads 315

Authors: Osholana Tobi Stephen, Rotimi Emmanuel Sadiku, Bilainu Oboirien.o

Abstract:

Fluidized bed combustion (FBC) is a clean coal technology used in the combustion of low-grade coals for power generation. The production of large solid wastes such as bottom ashes from this process is a problem. The bottom ash contains some toxic elements which can leach out soils and contaminate surface and ground water; for this reason, they can neither be disposed in landfills nor lagoons anymore. The production of geopolymers from bottom ash for structural and concrete applications is an option for their disposal. In this study, the waste bottom ash obtained from the combustion of three low grade South African coals in a bubbling fluidized bed reactor was used to produce geopolymers. The geopolymers were cured in a household microwave. The results showed that the microwave curing enhanced the reactivity and strength of the geopolymers.

Keywords: bottom ash, coal, fluidized bed combustion (FBC) geopolymer, compressive strength

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: Hamidreza Joodaki, Sara Farzaneh, Jaleh Afshar Qhazvin

Abstract:

Tourism industry is considered as the greatest and most various industry in the world. Most of these countries know this dynamic industry as main source of income, occupation, growth of private sector and development of infrastructure. One of the old methods of investment in countries such as Iran have transitional economy, is buying land and house, sometimes is resulted to high profit and of course for this reason hustler's are very interested in this background. Nowadays buying and selling land in the areas with pleasant climate in our country is considered. Since, Shahmirzad is a city with fair and desired environmental attractions is located in the border of deserted cities, mainly has special climatic position and these conditions are resulted to attraction of passenger, tourist for passing their leisure hours from Semnan and other cities of the area and from other provinces in hot seasons and with regard to these suitable conditions in the city buying land and housing also have been considered by most of residents of Semnan and cities around Shahmirzad by now. The aim of present research is investigation the role of tourism in increasing price of land and housing in Shahmirzad city. By studying on price of land and housing especially in central area, that gardens of the city are located in this area, we have concluded that role of tourism have caused in price of land and housing specially these prices in central and old areas are more expensive than towns around the city.

Keywords: tourism, climate conditions, price of land and housing, Shahmirzad

Procedia PDF Downloads 264

Authors: Carmen Cantuarias-Villessuzanne, Jeffrey Blain, Radmila Pineau

Abstract:

Our research project aims at analyzing the sensitiveness of French households to urban biodiversity and urban ecosystem services (UES). Opinion surveys show that the French population is sensitive to biodiversity and ecosystem services loss, but the value given to these issues within urban fabric and real estate market lacks evidence. Using GIS data and economic evaluation, by hedonic price methods, weassess the isolated contribution of the explanatory variables of biodiversityand UES on the price of residential real estate. We analyze the variation of the valuefor three urban ecosystem services - flood control, proximity to green spaces, and refreshment - on the price of real estate whena property changes ownership. Our modeling and mapping focus on the price at theIRIS scale (statistical information unit) from 2014 to 2019. The main variables are internal characteristics of housing (area, kind of housing, heating), external characteristics(accessibility and infrastructure, economic, social, and physical environmentsuch as air pollution, noise), and biodiversity indicators and urban ecosystemservices for the Ile-de-France region. Moreover, we compare environmental values on the enhancement of greenspaces and their impact on residential choices. These studies are very useful for real estate developers because they enable them to promote green spaces, and municipalities to become more attractive.

Keywords: urban ecosystem services, sustainable real estate, urban biodiversity perception, hedonic price, environmental values

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Reyna Singh, David Lokhat, Milan Carsky

Abstract:

The world crude oil demand is projected to rise to 108.5 million bbl/d by the year 2035. With reserves estimated at 869 billion tonnes worldwide, coal is an abundant resource. This work was aimed at producing a high value hydrocarbon liquid product from the Direct Coal Liquefaction (DCL) process at, comparatively, mild operating conditions. Via hydrogenation, the temperature-staged approach was investigated. In a two reactor lab-scale pilot plant facility, the objectives included maximising thermal dissolution of the coal in the presence of a hydrogen donor solvent in the first stage, subsequently promoting hydrogen saturation and hydrodesulphurization (HDS) performance in the second. The feed slurry consisted of high grade, pulverized bituminous coal on a moisture-free basis with a size fraction of < 100μm; and Tetralin mixed in 2:1 and 3:1 solvent/coal ratios. Magnetite (Fe3O4) at 0.25wt% of the dry coal feed was added for the catalysed runs. For both stages, hydrogen gas was used to maintain a system pressure of 100barg. In the first stage, temperatures of 250℃ and 300℃, reaction times of 30 and 60 minutes were investigated in an agitated batch reactor. The first stage liquid product was pumped into the second stage vertical reactor, which was designed to counter-currently contact the hydrogen rich gas stream and incoming liquid flow in the fixed catalyst bed. Two commercial hydrotreating catalysts; Cobalt-Molybdenum (CoMo) and Nickel-Molybdenum (NiMo); were compared in terms of their conversion, selectivity and HDS performance at temperatures 50℃ higher than the respective first stage tests. The catalysts were activated at 300°C with a hydrogen flowrate of approximately 10 ml/min prior to the testing. A gas-liquid separator at the outlet of the reactor ensured that the gas was exhausted to the online VARIOplus gas analyser. The liquid was collected and sampled for analysis using Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS). Internal standard quantification methods for the sulphur content, the BTX (benzene, toluene, and xylene) and alkene quality; alkanes and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) compounds in the liquid products were guided by ASTM standards of practice for hydrocarbon analysis. In the first stage, using a 2:1 solvent/coal ratio, an increased coal to liquid conversion was favoured by a lower operating temperature of 250℃, 60 minutes and a system catalysed by magnetite. Tetralin functioned effectively as the hydrogen donor solvent. A 3:1 ratio favoured increased concentrations of the long chain alkanes undecane and dodecane, unsaturated alkenes octene and nonene and PAH compounds such as indene. The second stage product distribution showed an increase in the BTX quality of the liquid product, branched chain alkanes and a reduction in the sulphur concentration. As an HDS performer and selectivity to the production of long and branched chain alkanes, NiMo performed better than CoMo. CoMo is selective to a higher concentration of cyclohexane. For 16 days on stream each, NiMo had a higher activity than CoMo. The potential to cover the demand for low–sulphur, crude diesel and solvents from the production of high value hydrocarbon liquid in the said process, is thus demonstrated.

Keywords: catalyst, coal, liquefaction, temperature-staged

Procedia PDF Downloads 608

Authors: Abhinav Sirvaiya, Karan Gupta, Pankaj Garg

Abstract:

The demand of energy is increasing at every part of the world. Thus, use of fossil fuel is efficient which results in large liberation of carbon dioxide in atmosphere. Tons of this CO2 raises the risk of dangerous climate changes. To minimize the risk carbon capture and storage (CCS) has to be used so that the emitted carbon dioxide do not reach the atmosphere. CCS is being considered as one of the options that could have a major role to play in India.With the growing awareness towards the global warming, carbon capture and sequestration has a great importance. New technologies and theories are in use to capture CO2. This paper contains the methodology and technologies that is in use to capture carbon dioxide in India. The present scenario of CCS is also being discussed. CCS is playing a major role in enhancing recovery of oil (ERO). Both the purpose 1) minimizing percentage of carbon dioxide in atmosphere and 2) enhancing recovery of oil are fulfilled from the CCS. The CO2 is usually captured from coal based power plant and from some industrial sources and then stored in the geological formations like oil and gas reservoir and deep aquifers or in oceans. India has large reservoirs of coal which are being used for storing CO2, as coal is a good absorbent of CO2. New technologies and studies are going on for injection purposes. Government has initiated new plans for CCS as CCS is technically feasible and economically attractive. A discussion is done on new schemes that should bring up CCS plans and approaches. Stakeholders are welcomed for suitability of CCS. There is still a need to potentially capture the CO2 and avail its storage in developing country like India.

Keywords: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), carbon dioxide (CO2), enhance oil recovery, geological formations, stakeholders

Procedia PDF Downloads 424

Authors: Gu Sihao

Abstract:

The coordinated development of "ecology-production-life" in cities has been highly concerned by the country, and the transformation development and sustainable development of resource-based cities have become a hot research topic at present. As an important part of China's resource-based cities, coal resource-based cities have the characteristics of large number and wide distribution. However, due to the adjustment of national energy structure and the gradual exhaustion of urban coal resources, the development vitality of coal resource-based cities is gradually reduced. In many studies, the deterioration of ecological environment in coal resource-based cities has become the main problem restricting their urban transformation and sustainable development due to the "emphasis on economy and neglect of ecology". Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), the Central Government has been deepening territorial space planning and development. On the premise of optimizing territorial space development pattern, it has completed the demarcation of ecological protection red lines, carried out ecological zoning and ecosystem evaluation, which have become an important basis and scientific guarantee for ecological modernization and ecological civilization construction. Grasp the regional multiple ecosystem services is the precondition of the ecosystem management, and the relationship between the multiple ecosystem services study, ecosystem services cluster can identify the interactions between multiple ecosystem services, and on the basis of the characteristics of the clusters on regional ecological function zoning, to better Social-Ecological system management. Based on this cognition, this study optimizes the spatial function zoning of Gujiao, a coal resource-based city, in order to provide a new theoretical basis for its sustainable development. This study is based on the detailed analysis of characteristics and utilization of Gujiao city land space, using SOFM neural networks to identify local ecosystem service clusters, according to the cluster scope and function of ecological function zoning of space partition balance and coordination between different ecosystem services strength, establish a relationship between clusters and land use, and adjust the functions of territorial space within each zone. Then, according to the characteristics of coal resources city and national spatial function zoning characteristics, as the driving factors of land change, by cellular automata simulation program, such as simulation under different restoration strategy situation of urban future development trend, and provides relevant theories and technical methods for the "third-line" demarcations of Gujiao's territorial space planning, optimizes territorial space functions, and puts forward targeted strategies for the promotion of regional ecosystem services, providing theoretical support for the improvement of human well-being and sustainable development of resource-based cities.

Keywords: coal resource-based city, territorial spatial planning, ecosystem service cluster, gmop model, geosos-FLUS model, functional zoning optimization and upgrading

Procedia PDF Downloads 26

Authors: Renzo Munoz-Najar, Cristina Wong, Daniel De La Torre Ugarte

Abstract:

The literature on price transmission usually deals with asymmetries related to different commodities and/or the short and long term. The role of domestic regional differences and the relationship with asymmetries within a country are usually left out. This paper looks at the asymmetry in the transmission of rice prices from the international price to the farm gate prices in four northern regions of Peru for the last period 2001-2016. These regions are San Martín, Piura, Lambayeque and La Libertad. The relevance of the study lies in its ability to assess the need for policies aimed at improving the competitiveness of the market and ensuring the benefit of producers. There are differences in planting and harvesting dates, as well as in geographic location that justify the hypothesis of the existence of differences in the price transition asymmetries between these regions. Those differences are due to at least three factors geography, infrastructure development, and distribution systems. For this, the Threshold Vector Error Correction Model and the Autoregressive Vector Model with Threshold are used. Both models, collect asymmetric effects in the price adjustments. In this way, it is sought to verify that farm prices react more to falls than increases in international prices due to the high bargaining power of intermediaries. The results of the investigation suggest that the transmission of prices is significant only for Lambayeque and La Libertad. Likewise, the asymmetry in the transmission of prices for these regions is checked. However, these results are not met for San Martin and Piura, the main rice producers nationwide. A significant price transmission is verified only in the Lambayeque and La Libertad regions. San Martin and Piura, in spite of being the main rice producing regions of Peru, do not present a significant transmission of international prices; a high degree of self-sufficient supply might be at the center of the logic for this result. An additional finding is the short-term adjustment with respect to international prices, it is higher in La Libertad compared to Lambayeque, which could be explained by the greater bargaining power of intermediaries in the last-mentioned region due to the greater technological development in the mills.

Keywords: asymmetric price transmission, rice prices, price transmission, regional economics

Procedia PDF Downloads 183

Authors: Juan Manuel Sanchez-Cartas, Gonzalo Leon

Abstract:

A price competition algorithm for ABMs based on game theory principles is proposed to deal with the simulation of theoretical market models. The algorithm is applied to the classical Hotelling’s model and to a two-sided market model to show it leads to the optimal behavior predicted by theoretical models. However, when theoretical models fail to predict the equilibrium, the algorithm is capable of reaching a feasible outcome. Results highlight that the algorithm can be implemented in other simulation models to guarantee rational users and endogenous optimal behaviors. Also, it can be applied as a tool of verification given that is theoretically based.

Keywords: agent-based models, algorithmic game theory, multi-sided markets, price optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 407

Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

Abstract:

The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price

Procedia PDF Downloads 172

Authors: Dhara Shah, Chandrakant Shah

Abstract:

As everyone knows, fly ash is a residual material we get upon energy production using coal. It has found numerous advantages for use in the concrete industry like improved workability, increased ultimate strength, reduced bleeding, reduced permeability, better finish and reduced heat of hydration. Types of fly ash depend on the type of coal and the coal combustion process. It is a pozzolanic material and has mainly two classes, F and C, based on the chemical composition. The fly ash used for this experimental work contains significant amount of lime and would be categorized as type F fly ash. Generally all types of fly ash have particle size less than 0.075mm. The fineness and lime content of fly ash are very important as they will affect the air content and water demand of the concrete, thereby affecting the durability and strength of the concrete. The present work has been done to optimize the use of fly ash to produce concrete with improved results and added benefits. A series of tests are carried out, analyzed and compared with concrete manufactured using only Portland cement as a binder. The present study is carried out for concrete mix with replacement of cement with different proportions of fly ash. Two concrete mixes M25 and M30 were studied with six replacements of cement with fly ash i.e. 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60% and 65% for 7-day, 14-day, 28-day, 56-day and 90-day. Study focused on compressive strength, split tensile strength, modulus of elasticity and modulus of rupture of concrete. Study clearly revealed that cement replacement by any proportion of fly ash failed to achieve early strength. Replacement of 40% and 45% succeeded in achieving required flexural strength for M25 and M30 grade of concrete.

Keywords: processed fly ash, engineering properties of concrete, pozzolanic, lime content

Procedia PDF Downloads 296

Authors: Muhammad Siddique, Volodymyr Lugovskyy

Abstract:

This paper explores how nations might mitigate the unfavorable impacts of oil price volatility on economic growth by switching to renewable energy sources. The impacts of uncertain factor prices on economic activity are examined by looking at the Realized Volatility (RV) of oil prices rather than the more traditional method of looking at oil price shocks. The United States of America (USA), China (C), India (I), United Kingdom (UK), Germany (G), Malaysia (M), and Pakistan (P) are all included to round out the traditional literature's examination of selected nations, which focuses on oil-importing and exporting economies. Granger Causality Tests (GCT), Impulse Response Functions (IRF), and Variance Decompositions (VD) demonstrate that in a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) scenario, the negative impacts of oil price volatility extend beyond what can be explained by oil price shocks alone for all of the nations in the sample. Different nations have different levels of vulnerability to changes in oil prices and other factors that may play a role in a sectoral composition and the energy mix. The conventional method, which only takes into account whether a country is a net oil importer or exporter, is inadequate. The potential economic advantages of initiatives to decouple the macroeconomy from volatile commodities markets are shown through simulations of volatility shocks in alternative energy mixes (with greater proportions of renewables). It is determined that in developing countries like Pakistan, increasing the use of renewable energy sources might lessen an economy's sensitivity to changes in oil prices; nonetheless, a country-specific study is required to identify particular policy actions. In sum, the research provides an innovative justification for mitigating economic growth's dependence on stable oil prices in our sample countries.

Keywords: oil price volatility, renewable energy, economic growth, developed and developing economies

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: Ayşe Duygu Kaçar

Abstract:

Industrial regions and buildings that have stopped their primary functions are in the interest of the discipline of architecture in the last decades. The renewal of these spaces of production for different functions is a common aspect for contemporary world countries. Totally different functions can be added to the existing as well, which can help improving the social, cultural and aesthetic character of these beings and sustaining their uniqueness. Therefore, these sites linking the past and future can be used as museums, exhibition centers, art ateliers, city parks, recreational centers, botanic gardens, sculpture parks, theatres, etc. in order to continue their place in the collective memory of the cities. The present paper depicts a way of shedding light on the Cotton Textile Industry (İplik ve Dokuma Fabrikası A.Ş), a local industrial site in Antalya, the most popular tourism center of Turkey, as a part of International Architecture Biennale, 2011 and on Lohberg coal mine, a local industrial site in the Ruhr region of Germany. As a transparent, fragile, temporary and economical material, the string was used as a design element in both experiential architecture works with architecture students and the outcomes will be discussed and presented through the theme 'rejecting / reversing architecture'.

Keywords: industrial sites, the Cotton Textile Industry Antalya, Lohberg coal mine, architectural design, identity

Procedia PDF Downloads 276

Authors: Amine M. Benmehaia, Amine Oulmane

Abstract:

The supply response of agricultural commodities to changes in price incentives is an important issue for the success of any policy reform in the agricultural sector. This study aims to quantify the responsiveness of producers of some livestock commodities to price incentives in Algerian context. Time series analysis is used on annual data for a period of 52 years (1966-2018). Both co-integration and vector error correction model (VECM) are used through the Nerlove model of partial adjustment. The study attempts to determine the long-run and short-run relationships along with the magnitudes of disequilibria in the selected commodities. Results show that the short-run price elasticities are low in cow and sheep meat sectors (8.7 and 8% respectively), while their respective long-run elasticities are 16.5 and 10.5, whereas eggs and milk have very high short-run price elasticities (82 and 90% respectively) with long-run elasticities of 40 and 46 respectively. The error correction coefficient, reflecting the speed of adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium, is statistically significant and have the expected negative sign. Its estimates are 12.7 for cow meat, 33.5 for sheep meat, 46.7 for eggs and 8.4 for milk. It seems that cow meat and milk producers have a weak feedback of about 12.7% and 8.4% respectively of the previous year's disequilibrium from the long-run price elasticity, whereas sheep meat and eggs producers adjust to correct long run disequilibrium with a high speed of adjustment (33.5% and 46.7 % respectively). The implication of this is that much more in-depth research is needed to identify those factors that affect agricultural supply and to describe the effect of factors that shift supply in response to price incentives. This could provide valuable information for government in the use of appropriate policy measures.

Keywords: Algeria, cointegration, livestock, supply response, vector error correction model

Procedia PDF Downloads 96

Authors: Jinhoa Lee

Abstract:

The relationships between environmental quality, energy use and economic output have created growing attention over the past decades among researchers and policy makers. Focusing on the empirical aspects of the role of CO2 emissions and energy use in affecting the economic output, this paper is an effort to fulfill the gap in a comprehensive case study at a country level using modern econometric techniques. To achieve the goal, this country-specific study examines the short-run and long-run relationships among energy consumption (using disaggregated energy sources: crude oil, coal, natural gas, electricity), carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for Israel using time series analysis from the year 1980-2010. To investigate the relationships between the variables, this paper employs the Phillips–Perron (PP) test for stationarity, Johansen maximum likelihood method for cointegration and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for both short- and long-run causality among the research variables for the sample. The long-run equilibrium in the VECM suggests significant positive impacts of coal and natural gas consumptions on GDP in Israel. In the short run, GDP positively affects coal consumption. While there exists a positive unidirectional causality running from coal consumption to consumption of petroleum products and the direct combustion of crude oil, there exists a negative unidirectional causality running from natural gas consumption to consumption of petroleum products and the direct combustion of crude oil in the short run. Overall, the results support arguments that there are relationships among environmental quality, energy use and economic output but the associations can to be differed by the sources of energy in the case of Israel over of period 1980-2010.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, energy consumption, GDP, Israel, time series analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 619

Authors: Şakir Bingöl, Abdullah Emre Aydemir, Abdullah Saado, Ahmet Akıl, Elif Canbaz, Feyza Nur Bulgurcu, Gizem Uzun, Günsu Bilge Dal, Muhammedcan Pirinççi

Abstract:

Smart contracts, which can be applied in many different areas, from financial applications to the internet of things, come to the fore with their security, low cost, and self-executing features. In this paper, it is focused on peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading and the implementation of the smart contract on the Ethereum blockchain. It is assumed a microgrid consists of consumers and prosumers that can produce solar and wind energy. The proposed architecture is a system where the prosumer makes the purchase or sale request in the smart contract and the maximum price obtained through the distribution system operator (DSO) by forecasting. It is aimed to forecast the hourly maximum unit price of energy by using deep learning instead of a fixed pricing. In this way, it will make the system more reliable as there will be more dynamic and accurate pricing. For this purpose, Istanbul's energy generation, energy consumption and market clearing price data were used. The consistency of the available data and forecasting results is observed and discussed with graphs.

Keywords: energy trading smart contract, deep learning, microgrid, forecasting, Ethereum, peer to peer

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: Carla Palencia-Aguilar

Abstract:

Calculations of Net Carbon Balance can be obtained by means of Net Biome Productivity (NBP), Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP), and Net Primary Production (NPP). The latter is an important component of the biosphere carbon cycle and is easily obtained data from MODIS MOD17A3HGF; however, the results are only available yearly. To overcome data availability, bands 33 to 36 from MODIS MYD021KM (obtained on a daily basis) were analyzed and compared with NPP data from the years 2000 to 2021 in 7 sites where surface mining takes place in the Colombian territory. Coal, Gold, Iron, and Limestone were the minerals of interest. Scales and Units as well as thermal anomalies, were considered for net carbon balance per location. The NPP time series from the satellite images were filtered by using two Matlab filters: First order and Discrete Transfer. After filtering the NPP time series, comparing the graph results from the satellite’s image value, and running a linear regression, the results showed R2 from 0,72 to 0,85. To establish comparable units among NPP and bands 33 to 36, the Greenhouse Gas Equivalencies Calculator by EPA was used. The comparison was established in two ways: one by the sum of all the data per point per year and the other by the average of 46 weeks and finding the percentage that the value represented with respect to NPP. The former underestimated the total CO2 emissions. The results also showed that coal and gold mining in the last 22 years had less CO2 emissions than limestone, with an average per year of 143 kton CO2 eq for gold, 152 kton CO2 eq for coal, and 287 kton CO2 eq for iron. Limestone emissions varied from 206 to 441 kton CO2 eq. The maximum emission values from unfiltered data correspond to 165 kton CO2 eq. for gold, 188 kton CO2 eq. for coal, and 310 kton CO2 eq. for iron and limestone, varying from 231 to 490 kton CO2 eq. If the most pollutant limestone site improves its production technology, limestone could count with a maximum of 318 kton CO2 eq emissions per year, a value very similar respect to iron. The importance of gathering data is to establish benchmarks in order to attain 2050’s zero emissions goal.

Keywords: carbon dioxide, NPP, MODIS, MINING

Procedia PDF Downloads 60

Authors: Mohammad Rahim Rahnama

Abstract:

The study employs Monte Carlo method for simulation of rented housing in Mashhad second largest city in Iran. A total number of 334 rental residential units in Mashhad, including both apartments and houses (villa), were randomly selected from advertisements placed in Khorasan Newspapers during the months of July and August of 2015. In order to simulate the monthly rent price, the rent index was calculated through combining the mortgage and the rent price. In the next step, the relation between the variables of the floor area and that of the number of bedrooms for each unit, in both apartments and houses(villa), was calculated through multivariate regression using SPSS and was coded in XML. The initial model was called using simulation button in SPSS and was simulated using triangular and binominal algorithms. The findings revealed that the average simulated rental index was 548.5$ per month. Calculating the sensitivity of rental index to a number of bedrooms we found that firstly, 97% of units have three bedrooms, and secondly as the number of bedrooms increases from one to three, for the rent price of less than 200$, the percentage of units having one bedroom decreases from 10% to 0. Contrariwise, for units with the rent price of more than 571.4$, the percentage of bedrooms increases from 37% to 48%. In the light of these findings, it becomes clear that planning to build rental residential units, overseeing the rent prices, and granting subsidies to rental residential units, for apartments with two bedrooms, present a felicitous policy for regulating residential units in Mashhad.

Keywords: Mashhad, Monte Carlo, simulation, rent price, residential unit

Procedia PDF Downloads 238

Authors: Dongqi Sun, Juan Tao, Yingying Wu

Abstract:

This paper reexamines the appropriateness of contrarian trades as a proxy of informed trades, using high frequency Chinese stock data. Employing this measure for 5 minute intervals, a U-shaped intraday pattern of probability of informed trades (PIN) is found for the CSI300 stocks, which is consistent with previous findings for other markets. However, while dividing the trades into different sizes, a reversed U-shaped PIN from large-sized trades, opposed to the U-shaped pattern for small- and medium-sized trades, is observed. Drawing from the mixed evidence with different trade sizes, the price impact of trades is further investigated. By examining the relationship between trade imbalances and unexpected returns, larges-sized trades are found to have significant price impact. This implies that in those intervals with large trades, it is non-contrarian trades that are more likely to be informed trades. Taking account of the price impact of large-sized trades, non-contrarian trades are used to proxy for informed trading in those intervals with large trades, and contrarian trades are still used to measure informed trading in other intervals. A stronger U-shaped PIN is demonstrated from this modification. Auto-correlation and information advantage tests for robustness also support the modified informed trading measure.

Keywords: contrarian trades, informed trading, price impact, trade imbalance

Procedia PDF Downloads 131