Search results for: catastrophe%20modeling

Authors: Reni M. Sagayaraj, Anand Gnana S. Selvam, Reynald R. Susainathan

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider stochastic queueing models for Steady-state behavior of a multi-phase M/M/1 queue in random evolution subject to catastrophe failure. The arrival flow of customers is described by a marked Markovian arrival process. The service times of different type customers have a phase-type distribution with different parameters. To facilitate the investigation of the system we use a generalized phase-type service time distribution. This model contains a repair state, when a catastrophe occurs the system is transferred to the failure state. The paper focuses on the steady-state equation, and observes that, the steady-state behavior of the underlying queueing model along with the average queue size is analyzed.

Keywords: M/G/1 queuing system, multi-phase, random evolution, steady-state equation, catastrophe failure

Procedia PDF Downloads 281

Authors: Huicong Jia, Donghua Pan

Abstract:

As a key component of disaster reduction management, disaster emergency relief and reconstruction is an important process. Based on disaster system theory, this study analyzed the Jiangsu tornado from the formation mechanism of disasters, through to the economic losses, loss of life, and social infrastructure losses along the tornado disaster chain. The study then assessed the emergency relief and reconstruction efforts, based on an analytic hierarchy process method. The results were as follows: (1) An unstable weather system was the root cause of the tornado. The potentially hazardous local environment, acting in concert with the terrain and the river network, was able to gather energy from the unstable atmosphere. The wind belt passed through a densely populated district, with vulnerable infrastructure and other hazard-prone elements, which led to an accumulative disaster situation and the triggering of a catastrophe. (2) The tornado was accompanied by a hailstorm, which is an important triggering factor for a tornado catastrophe chain reaction. (3) The evaluation index (EI) of the emergency relief and reconstruction effect for the ‘‘6.23’’ tornado disaster in Yancheng was 91.5. Compared to other relief work in areas affected by disasters of the same magnitude, there was a more successful response than has previously been experienced. The results provide new insights for studies of disaster systems and the recovery measures in response to tornado catastrophe in China.

Keywords: China, disaster system, emergency relief, tornado catastrophe

Procedia PDF Downloads 236

Authors: Rong-Tsorng Wang

Abstract:

In this paper, we derive a pricing formula for catastrophe equity put options (or CatEPut) with non-homogeneous loss and approximated compound distributions. We assume that the loss claims arrival process is a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) representing the clustering occurrences of loss claims, the size of loss claims is a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables, and the accumulated loss distribution forms a compound distribution and is approximated by a heavy-tailed distribution. A numerical example is given to calibrate parameters, and we discuss how the value of CatEPut is affected by the changes of parameters in the pricing model we provided.

Keywords: catastrophe equity put options, compound distributions, nonhomogeneous Poisson process, pricing model

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Claudia Pimentel, Nuno Resende, Maria Fatima Lambert

Abstract:

In the present time, catastrophe seems to be inevitable, and individuals are permanently overwhelmed with challenges that test one’s ability to cope with reality. Undoubtedly, photography surpassed the barrier of efficient communication in a world filled with omnifarious narratives. It wandered an outing shorter than words and younger than other sciences but became, nowadays, imperative in the context of several fields of knowledge, namely Heritage studies. Heritage and photography thus emerge as unapologetically related concepts, a fact that makes them equally relevant in today's society. Political, economic, social and humanitarian challenges alter the way in which the relationship with the past is managed and the way in which identities and ideas for the future are constructed. Ruins and destruction have become part of aesthetics discourse since the 18th century and are an area of interest when we discuss cultural heritage preservation. The image proves to be a unique way of revealing the event details when we refer to a catastrophic situation, whether it be anthropic, social or climatic. Like poetry, which has a challenging connection with silence, image is capable of creating spaces of sound and silence, and it is often these “pseudo-voids” that capture the attention of the spectator, of the one who sees/observes/contacts with the photography. The way we look at the catastrophe, how we describe it, and the images we keep in our memory will determine the record/capture/news of the event. We, thus, have a visual record, a document that will contribute to the creation of individual and collective identity, in a jigsaw puzzle of memories, pseudo memories and post memories. Based on photographic records in the Portuguese press, we intend to rethink the earthquake at Angra do Heroísmo – Azores in 1980, exploring the viewer´s perspective on the catastrophe’s iconography under the perspective of aesthetics and genealogy of the catastrophe.

Keywords: photography, aesthetics, catastrophe, Portugal

Procedia PDF Downloads 34

Authors: H. K. Ramaraju

Abstract:

World is in deep trouble and deeper denial. Worse, the denial is now entirely on the side of action. It is well accepted that climate change is a reality. Scientists say we need to cap temperature increases at 2°C to avoid catastrophe, which means capping emissions at 450 ppm .We know global average temperatures have already increased by 0.8°C and there is enough green house gas in the atmosphere to lead to another 0.8°C increase. There is still a window of opportunity, a tiny one, to tackle the crisis. But where is the action? In the 1990’s, when the world did even not understand, let alone accept, the crises, it was more willing to move to tackle climate change. Today we are in reverse in gear. The rich world has realized it is easy to talk big, but tough to take steps to actually reduce emissions. The agreement was that these countries would reduce so that the developing World could increase. Instead, between 1990 and 2006, their carbon dioxide emissions increased by a whopping 14.5 percent, even green countries of Europe are unable to match words with action. Stop deforestation and take a 20 percent advantage in our carbon balance sheet, with out doing anything at home called REDD (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) and push for carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. There are warning signs elsewhere and they need to be read correctly and acted up on , if not the cases like flood –act of nature or manmade disaster. The full length paper orient in proper understanding of the issues and identifying the most appropriate course of action.

Keywords: catastrophe, deforestation, emissions, waste water

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Mohammad Shoraka, Raulina Wojtkiewicz, Karthik Ramanathan

Abstract:

Following the devastating summer 2021 floods in Germany, catastrophe modelers realized that hazard parameters, such as flow velocity, flood duration, and debris flow, play a significant role in capturing the overall damage potential of such events. Accounting for the location-specific static depth as the only hazard intensity metric may lead to a substantial underestimation of the vulnerability of building stock and, eventually, the loss potential of such catastrophic events. As the flow velocity increases, the hydrodynamic forces acting on various building components are amplified. Longer flood duration leads to water permeating porous components, incurring additional cleanup costs that contribute to an overall increase in damage. Debris flow possesses the power to erode extensive sections of buildings, thus substantially augmenting the extent of losses. This paper introduces four flow velocity classes, ranging from no flow velocity to major velocity, along with two flood duration classes: short and long, in estimating the vulnerability of the building stock. Additionally, the study examines the impact of the presence of debris flow and its role in exacerbating flood damage. The paper delves into the effects of each of these parameters on building component damageability and their collective impact on the overall building vulnerability.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, building vulnerability, hazard parameters, component damage function

Procedia PDF Downloads 30

Authors: Nozar Kishi, Babak Kamrani, Filmon Habte

Abstract:

Natural hazards such as earthquakes and tropical storms, are very frequent and highly destructive in Japan. Japan experiences, every year on average, more than 10 tropical cyclones that come within damaging reach, and earthquakes of moment magnitude 6 or greater. We have developed stochastic catastrophe models to address the risk associated with the entire suite of damaging events in Japan, for use by insurance, reinsurance, NGOs and governmental institutions. KCC’s (Karen Clark and Company) catastrophe models are procedures constituted of four modular segments: 1) stochastic events sets that would represent the statistics of the past events, hazard attenuation functions that could model the local intensity, vulnerability functions that would address the repair need for local buildings exposed to the hazard, and financial module addressing policy conditions that could estimates the losses incurring as result of. The events module is comprised of events (faults or tracks) with different intensities with corresponding probabilities. They are based on the same statistics as observed through the historical catalog. The hazard module delivers the hazard intensity (ground motion or wind speed) at location of each building. The vulnerability module provides library of damage functions that would relate the hazard intensity to repair need as percentage of the replacement value. The financial module reports the expected loss, given the payoff policies and regulations. We have divided Japan into regions with similar typhoon climatology, and earthquake micro-zones, within each the characteristics of events are similar enough for stochastic modeling. For each region, then, a set of stochastic events is developed that results in events with intensities corresponding to annual occurrence probabilities that are of interest to financial communities; such as 0.01, 0.004, etc. The intensities, corresponding to these probabilities (called CE, Characteristics Events) are selected through a superstratified sampling approach that is based on the primary uncertainty. Region specific hazard intensity attenuation functions followed by vulnerability models leads to estimation of repair costs. Extensive economic exposure model addresses all local construction and occupancy types, such as post-linter Shinand Okabe wood, as well as concrete confined in steel, SRC (Steel-Reinforced Concrete), high-rise.

Keywords: typhoon, earthquake, Japan, catastrophe modelling, stochastic modeling, stratified sampling, loss model, ERM

Procedia PDF Downloads 234

Authors: Mohammad Shoraka, Francesco Preti, Karen Angeles, Raulina Wojtkiewicz, Karthik Ramanathan

Abstract:

Catastrophe modeling has evolved significantly over the last four decades. Verisk introduced its pioneering comprehensive inland flood model tailored for the U.K. in 2008. Over the course of the last 15 years, Verisk has built a suite of physically driven flood models for several countries and regions across the globe. This paper aims to spotlight a selection of these advancements tailored to the development of vulnerability estimation, which forms an integral part of a forthcoming update to Verisk’s U.K. inland flood model. Vulnerability functions are critical to evaluating and robust modeling flood-induced damage to buildings and contents. The subsequent damage assessments then allow for direct quantification of losses for entire building portfolios. Notably, today’s flood loss models more often prioritize enhanced development of hazard characterization, while vulnerability functions often lack sufficient granularity for a robust assessment. This study proposes a novel, engineering-driven, physically based component-level flood vulnerability framework for the U.K. Various aspects of the framework, including component classification and comprehensive cost analysis, meticulously tailored to capture the distinct building characteristics unique to the U.K., will be discussed. This analysis will elucidate how the cost distribution across individual components contributes to translating component-level damage functions into building-level damage functions. Furthermore, a succinct overview of essential datasets employed to gauge building regional vulnerability will be highlighted.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, inland flood, vulnerability, cost analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 32

Authors: Victor Toom

Abstract:

Albeit it is never possible to anticipate the full range of difficulties after a catastrophe, efforts to identify victims of mass casualty events have become institutionalized and standardized with the aim of effectively and efficiently addressing the many challenges and contingencies. Such ‘disaster victim identification’ (DVI) practices are dependent on the forensic sciences, are subject of national legislation, and are reliant on technical and organizational protocols to mitigate the many complexities in the wake of catastrophe. Apart from such technological, legal and bureaucratic elements constituting a DVI operation, victims’ families and their emotions are also part and parcel of any effort to identify casualties of mass human fatality incidents. Take for example the fact that forensic experts require (antemortem) information from the group of relatives to make identification possible. An identified body or body part is also repatriated to kin. Relatives are thus main stakeholders in DVI operations. Much has been achieved in years past regarding facilitating victims’ families’ issues and their emotions. Yet, how families are dealt with by experts and authorities is still considered a difficult topic. Due to sensitivities and required emphatic interaction with families on the one hand, and the rationalized DVI efforts, on the other hand, there is still scope for improving communication, providing information and meaningful inclusion of relatives in the DVI effort. This paper aims to bridge the standardized world of DVI efforts and families’ experienced realities and makes suggestions to further improve DVI efforts through inclusion of victims’ families. Based on qualitative interviews, the paper narrates involvement and experiences of inter alia DVI practitioners, victims’ families, advocates and clergy in the wake of the 1995 Srebrenica genocide which killed approximately 8,000 men, and the 9/11 in New York City with 2,750 victims. The paper shows that there are several models of including victims’ families into a DVI operation, and it argues for a model of where victims’ families become a partner in DVI operations.

Keywords: disaster victim identification (DVI), victims’ families, social science (qualitative), 9/11 attacks, Srebrenica genocide

Procedia PDF Downloads 199

Authors: Masami Usui

Abstract:

After 9/11, the American literary scene was confronted with new perspectives that enabled both writers and readers to recognize the hidden aspects of their political, economic, legal, social, and cultural phenomena. There appeared an argument over new and challenging multicultural aspects after 9/11 and this argument is presented by a tension of space related to 9/11. In Amy Waldman’s the Submission (2011), designing both the memorial park and the family network has a significant meaning in establishing the progress of understanding from multiple perspectives. The most intriguing and controversial topic of racism is reflected in the Submission, where one young architect’s blind entry to the competition for the memorial of Ground Zero is nominated, yet he is confronted with strong objections and hostility as soon as he turns out to be a Muslim named Mohammad Khan. This ‘Khan’ issue, immediately enlarged into a social controversial issue on American soil, causes repeated acts of hostility to Muslim women by ignorant citizens all over America. His idea of the park is to design a new concept of tracing the cultural background of the open space. Against his will, his name is identified as the ‘ingredient’ of the networking of the resistant community with his supporters: on the other hand, the post 9/11 hysteria and victimization is presented in such family associations as the Angry Family Members and Grieving Family Members. These rapidly expanding networks, whether political or not, constructed by the internet, embody the contemporary societal connection and representation. The contemporary quest for the significance of human relationships is recognized as a quest for global peace. Designing both the memorial park and the communication networks strengthens a process of facing the shared conflicts and healing the survivors’ trauma. The tension between the idea and networking of the Garden for the memorial site and the collapse of Ground Zero signifies the double mission of the site: to establish the space to ease the wounded and to remember the catastrophe. Reading the design of these icons of 9/11 in the Submission means that decoding the myth of globalization and its representations in this century.

Keywords: American literature, cultural studies, globalization, literature of catastrophe

Procedia PDF Downloads 502

Authors: Mamyrbek A. Beisenbi, Nurgul M. Kissikova, Saltanat E. Beisembina, Salamat T. Suleimenova, Samal A. Kaliyeva

Abstract:

The paper proposes a method for constructing a self-organizing control system for unstable and deterministic chaotic processes in the class of catastrophe “hyperbolic umbilic” for objects with m-inputs and n-outputs. The self-organizing control system is investigated by the universal gradient-velocity method of Lyapunov vector functions. The conditions for self-organization of the control system in the class of catastrophes “hyperbolic umbilic” are shown in the form of a system of algebraic inequalities that characterize the aperiodic robust stability in the stationary states of the system.

Keywords: gradient-velocity method of Lyapunov vector-functions, hyperbolic umbilic, self-organizing control system, stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: Ghazala Hcini, Imen Jdey, Hela Ltifi

Abstract:

Malaria disease should be considered and handled as a potential restorative catastrophe. One of the most challenging tasks in the field of microscopy image processing is due to differences in test design and vulnerability of cell classifications. In this article, we focused on applying deep learning to classify patients by identifying images of infected and uninfected cells. We performed multiple forms, counting a classification approach using the Hue, Saturation, Value (HSV) color space. HSV is used since of its superior ability to speak to image brightness; at long last, for classification, a convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture is created. Clusters of focus were used to deliver the classification. The highlights got to be forbidden, and a few more clamor sorts are included in the information. The suggested method has a precision of 99.79%, a recall value of 99.55%, and provides 99.96% accuracy.

Keywords: deep learning, convolutional neural network, image classification, color transformation, HSV color, malaria diagnosis, malaria cells images

Procedia PDF Downloads 57

Authors: Luke Onyekakeyah, Cynthia Onyekakeyah

Abstract:

The conflict in Northeastern Nigeria could mar local and international efforts to salvage the drying Lake Chad, which at present is merely 20 per cent of its original size. The conflict which began in 2009, assumed a monstrous dimension to the extent that any prospects of a redeeming action on the Lake is bleak. The concern of the authorities in the basin countries is how to bring the conflict to an end in the interest of the ecologically-dependent riparian population. Lake Chad is Africa’s fourth largest lake. From a previous 388,500 km2 some 600, 000 years ago, the Lake has shrunk to a maximum length of 25,000 km2. During the last four decades, the Lake has been susceptible to increasing variability and irregular rainfall. Dry spell, excessive evaporation and sandstorm have adversely affected the Lake, such that a 2001 estimate put the Lake to a meager 19,000 km2. Given the critical importance of the Lake as a source of livelihood for over 20 million people, there is mounting concern that an unprecedented human and ecological catastrophe is unfolding, should the Lake eventually dries up. The study evaluates the Lake Chad and how the conflict has adversely impacted it.

Keywords: lake chad, conflict, salvage, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Adrian O'Hagan, Robert McLoughlin

Abstract:

Considerable focus in the world of insurance risk quantification is placed on modeling loss values from lines of business (LOBs) that possess upper tail dependence. Copulas such as the Joe, Gumbel and Student-t copula may be used for this purpose. The copula structure imparts a desired level of tail dependence on the joint distribution of claims from the different LOBs. Alternatively, practitioners may possess historical or simulated data that already exhibit upper tail dependence, through the impact of catastrophe events such as hurricanes or earthquakes. In these circumstances, it is not desirable to induce additional upper tail dependence when modeling the joint distribution of the loss values from the individual LOBs. Instead, it is of interest to accurately assess the degree of tail dependence already present in the data. The empirical copula and its associated upper tail dependence coefficient are presented in this paper as robust, efficient means of achieving this goal.

Keywords: empirical copula, extreme events, insurance loss reserving, upper tail dependence coefficient

Procedia PDF Downloads 256

Authors: Nabil Mekaoui, Nacer Jabour, Abdelhamid Allaoui, Abderahim Oulidi

Abstract:

The reliability of several insurance indexes of the seismic risk is evaluated and compared for an efficient seismic risk coverage of buildings in Morocco, thus, reducing the basic risk. A large database of earthquake ground motions is established from recent seismic events in Morocco and synthetic ground motions compatible with the design spectrum in order to conduct nonlinear time history analyses on three building models representative of the building stock in Morocco. The uninhabitability index is evaluated based on the simulated damage index, then correlated with preselected insurance indexes. Interestingly, the commonly used peak ground acceleration index showed poor correlation when compared with other indexes, such as spectral accelerations at low periods. Recommendations on the choice of suitable insurance indexes are formulated for efficient seismic risk coverage in Morocco.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, damage, earthquake, reinsurance, seismic hazard, trigger index, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 42

Authors: Abul Kayum Zarzis Alam

Abstract:

Death is not a terminal; it is just a junction. From Agamas to Vedas, from Buddhism to Judaism, all the major scriptures and religions of the world always do converge to this hypothesis of death. Death is the ultimate catastrophe of life and it is the genesis of every religion on this Earth. Several hundred thousand years ago, the Homo Sapiens in Paleolithic age introduced the notion of religion on this Earth in its most primitive form just to escape from death and natural catastrophes through their belief in supernatural things which created the sense of superstition among the Homo Sapiens which has only increased over time. This sense of superstition and belief in supernatural things are building blocks of religion. Religion is like entropy, a degree of disorder. Entropy for an irreversible system like our own Universe always increases. Same is happening to our human civilization where the disorder had been increasing over time. The degree of this disorder of human civilization is religion divides and conquers over the human civilization of Earth. Religion is the human entropy which had been governing and will govern us. Just like entropy, religion is also an essential intrinsic property of the system which makes the system evolved. We have to optimize this ambivalence of the human entropy to make our civilization an inclusive and sustainable one.

Keywords: death, earth, entropy, Homo sapiens, religion and human entropy

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Ida Shafinaz Mohamed Kamil, Mohd Dahlan Abdul Malek

Abstract:

Today, the whole world is facing a catastrophe called the novel coronavirus disease known as COVID-19. As of October 2021, it has been reported that more than 248 million cases and 5 million deaths have been recorded worldwide. In Malaysia, 2,466,663 cases were reported, with 28,876 deaths recorded on 30 October 2021. Unfortunately, the world is not only facing the COVID-19 pandemic but the COVID-19 infodemic as well, where fake news about COVID-19 disease is spreading faster and more widely than from the virus itself. The spread of fake news is amplified through various social media platforms, which is causing concern among the community. The uncertainty in understanding what fake news really is has caused difficulties and challenges in providing a solution to the hazards that it creates. This article discusses what constitutes fake news and examines the current legal framework put in place to combat fake news in Malaysia. Employing a doctrinal research methodology, this article thoroughly analyzes the relevant legal provisions under the Communications and Multimedia Act 1998, the Penal Code and the Emergency (Essential Powers) Ordinance (No.2) 2021, which came into force on 12 March 2021 as well as related case laws, for offenses and punishments with regards to fake news. The findings from the analysis indicate that there is still room for improvement in regulating fake news, in particular concerning COVID-19.

Keywords: fake news, legal pespective, covid 19, pendemic

Procedia PDF Downloads 51

Authors: Kenneth Christie

Abstract:

Syria and Iraq are Arabian nightmares at the local, the regional and global levels in terms of human security and the protection of the vulnerable. Wracked by civil war, ethnic and political violence in the last 5 years in the case of Syria and 13 years in the case of Iraq, the body count now is staggering; the humanitarian crisis continues and there appears no end to this. A crisis that has claimed the lives of 200,000 people so far in Syria, sparked a humanitarian catastrophe fuelled violent Islamic extremism and exposed serious splits in the international community who appear to have no consensus. The international community’s failure to act is simply another sign of the desperate situation which has developed over conflicts that appears unsolvable in the immediate future and may be intractable in the long range. Three things are really at stake I’m going to argue in these continuing crises and how it will affect the human security dimensions of the conflict. Firstly, the protection of vulnerable individuals and civilians in the war, 2ndly, the dire consequences for regional instability as a result and thirdly the risks for minority and ethnic identities who are caught up in this, within and across these volatile borders. This paper will examine these elements and the consequences of the conflict in terms of human security, migration and development.

Keywords: human security, migration, Syria and Iraq, conflict and development

Procedia PDF Downloads 332

Authors: Pranjali Avinash Yadav-Deshmukh

Abstract:

Remarkable development of the Internet along with the new technological innovation, such as high-speed systems and affordable large storage space have led to a tremendous increase in the amount and accessibility to digital records. For any person, studying of all these data is tremendously time intensive, so there is a great need to access effective multi-document summarization (MDS) systems, which can successfully reduce details found in several records into a short, understandable summary or conclusion. For semantic representation of textual details in ontology area, as a theoretical design, our system provides a significant structure. The stability of using the ontology in fixing multi-document summarization problems in the sector of catastrophe control is finding its recommended design. Saliency ranking is usually allocated to each phrase and phrases are rated according to the ranking, then the top rated phrases are chosen as the conclusion. With regards to the conclusion quality, wide tests on a selection of media announcements are appropriate for “Jammu Kashmir Overflow in 2014” records. Ontology centered multi-document summarization methods using “NLP centered extraction” outshine other baselines. Our participation in recommended component is to implement the details removal methods (NLP) to enhance the results.

Keywords: disaster management, extraction technique, k-means, multi-document summarization, NLP, ontology, sentence extraction

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: Sania Sana, Afnan Nasim, Usman Malik, Maroof Tahir

Abstract:

The aim of this research is to scrutinize the interdependent relationship between terrorism and behavioral changes in the tourism activities in Pakistan with the moderating impact of a unique variable titled 'Financial Risk Tolerance'. The article looks at the inter-reliant relationship with the alleged political and economic aspects and behavioral changes in the tourists and the consumers by these variables over time. The researchers used many underlying theories like the catastrophe theory by (Svyantek, Deshon and Siler 1991), information integration theory (Anderson 1981, 1982) and prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky 1979) to shape the study’s framework as per tourist decision making model. A sample of around 110 locals was used for this purpose and the data was gathered by convenience sampling. The responses were analyzed using regression analysis. The results exhibited how terrorism along with the influence of financial risk tolerance had inclined a behavioral shift in the travelling patterns and vacation destination choice of the local tourists. Lastly, the paper proposes a number of suggestive measures for the tourism industry and the legislative bodies to ensure the safety of travelers and to boost the tourist activities in the vacation industry of Pakistan.

Keywords: terrorism, tourism, financial risk tolerance, tourist decision-making, destination choice

Procedia PDF Downloads 202

Authors: Awe Ayodeji Samson, Adeuja Yetunde Omowunmi

Abstract:

Corruption is a ‘monster’ that can consume a whole nation, continent and even the world if it is not destroyed while it is still immature; It grows in the mind of the people, takes over their thinking and guides their decision-making process. Corruption snowballs into socio-economic catastrophe that might be difficult to deal with. Corruption which is a disease of the mind can be alleviated in Africa and the world at large by transforming a Corruption-Prone Mind to a Corruption-Immune Mind and to achieve this, we have to change our value system because the use of anti-graft agencies alone is not enough. Therefore, we have to fight corruption from the inside and the outside. Value System is the principle of right and wrong that are accepted by an individual or a social group; the reviewing and reordering of our value system is the solution to the problem of corruption as proposed by this research because the African society has become a ‘Money and Power Driven Society’ where the ‘I am worth concept’ which is a problematic concept has created an ‘Aggressive Society’ with grasping and money-grabbing individuals. We place more priority on money and the display of opulence. Hence, this has led to a ‘Triangular Society’ where minority is lavishing in plenty and majority is gasping for little. The get rich quick syndrome, the ethnicity syndrome, weakened educational system are signs of the prevalence of corruption in Africa This research has analyzed role and impact of the change in our value system in the fight against corruption in Africa and has therefore proposed the change in our value system as the way forward in the fight against corruption in Africa.

Keywords: corruption-prone mind, corruption-immune mind, triangular society, aggressive society, money and power-driven society

Procedia PDF Downloads 276

Authors: Aïssa Rezzoug

Abstract:

This paper is aimed to bring new elements that demonstrate the tide caused the groundwater to rise in the shoreline band, on which the urban areas occurs, especially in the western coastal cities of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia like Jeddah. The reason for the last events of Jeddah inundation was the groundwater rise in the city coupled at the same time to a strong precipitation event. This paper will illustrate the tide participation in increasing the groundwater level significantly. It shows that the reason for internal groundwater recharge within the urban area is not only the excess of the water supply coming from surrounding areas, due to the human activity, with lack of sufficient and efficient sewage system, but also due to tide effect. The research study follows a quantitative method to assess groundwater level rise risks through many in-situ measurements and mathematical modelling. The proposed approach highlights groundwater level, in the urban areas of the city on the shoreline band, reaching the high tide level without considering any input from precipitation. Despite the small tide in the Red Sea compared to other oceanic coasts, the groundwater level is considerably enhanced by the tide from the seaside and by the freshwater table from the landside of the city. In these conditions, the groundwater level becomes high in the city and prevents the soil to evacuate quickly enough the surface flow caused by the storm event, as it was observed in the last historical flood catastrophe of Jeddah in 2009.

Keywords: flood, groundwater rise, Jeddah, tide

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: Veepaul Kaur Mann Balwinder Singh

Abstract:

The COVID-19 had an intense impact on several countries across the world. National governments have imposed widespread restrictions to prevent the growth of this pandemic. The new health competitive scenario induced by the COVID-19 crisis raised many issues on how business activities should be reorganized due to the difficulties of physical interactions with distributors, suppliers and customers. The pandemic has particularly affected the whole selling process because of the relevant issues that emerged in managing physical sale channels and interactions with one another, both in the Business-to-Consumer and in the Business-to-Business markets. Recent research about the appropriate actions and strategies that could help firms overcome the crisis has highlighted the key role of digital expertise that may ensure connections and, thus, help business activities run smoothly. This could be true, especially with the occurrence of strong limitations on physical interactions during the COVID-19 pandemic. The catastrophe changes life publically and economically. People are living alone for following the social distancing norms. In that set-up, Digital Marketing is playing an important role in civilization. Anyone can buy any item, pay bills, transfer money and compare items through Digital Marketing without physical interactions. After COVID-19, people will be more aware of health safety and trust. So, through Digital Marketing, organizations can approach customers and provide good service environments. In such a situation, the online network becomes the most important encouraging for online customers to get in contact with the firm and carry out online selling and purchasing activities around the world.

Keywords: COVID-19, business, digital marketing, online customer

Procedia PDF Downloads 14

Authors: João Gago dos Santos, Paulo Pereira Almeida

Abstract:

The present study intends to deepen and understand the reasons that led to the decline and disappearance of wooden construction systems in Portugal, for that reason, its use in history must be analyzed. It is observed that this material was an integral part of the construction systems in Europe and Portugal for centuries, and it is possible to conclude that its decline happens with the appearance of hybrid construction and later with the emergence and development of reinforced concrete technology. It is also verified that wood as a constructive element, and for that reason, an element of development had great importance in national construction, with its peak being the Pombaline period, after the 1755 earthquake. In this period, the great scarcity of materials in the metropolis led to the import wood from Brazil for the reconstruction of Lisbon. This period is linked to an accentuated exploitation of forests, resulting in laws and royal decrees aimed at protecting them, guaranteeing the continued existence of profitable forests, crucial to the reconstruction effort. The following period, with the gradual loss of memory of the catastrophe, resulted in a construction that was weakened structurally as a response to a time of real estate speculation and great urban expansion. This was the moment that precluded the inexistence of the use of wood in construction. At the beginning of the 20th century and in the 30s and 40s, with the appearance and development of reinforced concrete, it became part of the great structures of the state, and it is considered a versatile material capable of resolving issues throughout the national territory. It is at this point that the wood falls into disuse and practically disappears from the new works produced.

Keywords: construction history, construction in portugal, construction systems, wood construction

Procedia PDF Downloads 94

Authors: Paul Buchana, Patrick E. Mc Sharry

Abstract:

In 2017 there will be about 38 wind farms in the North Sea belonging to 5 different countries. The North Sea is ideal for offshore wind power generation and is thus attractive to offshore wind energy developers and investors. With concerns about the potential for offshore wind turbines to sustain substantial damage as a result of extreme weather conditions, particularly windstorms, this poses a unique challenge to insurers and reinsurers as to adequately quantify the risk and offer appropriate insurance cover for these assets. The need to manage this risk also concerns regulators, who provide the oversight needed to ensure that if a windstorm or a series of storms occur in this area over a one-year time frame, the insurers of these assets in the EU remain solvent even after meeting consequent damage costs. In this paper, using available European windstorm data for the past 33 years and actual wind farm locations together with information pertaining to each of the wind farms (number of turbines, total capacity and financial value), we present a Monte Carlo simulation approach to assess the number of turbines that would be buckled in each of the wind farms using maximum wind speeds reaching each of them. These wind speeds are drawn from historical windstorm data. From the number of turbines buckled, associated financial loss and output capacity can be deduced. The results presented in this paper are targeted towards offshore wind energy developers, insurance and reinsurance companies and regulators.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, North Sea wind farms, offshore wind power, risk analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 268

Authors: Alexander G. Yushchenko

Abstract:

From a multi-science point of view, we analyze threats to security resulting from globalization of international information space and information and communication aggression of Russia. A definition of Ruschism is formulated as an ideology supporting aggressive actions of modern Russia against the Euro-Atlantic community. Stages of the hybrid war Russia is leading against Ukraine are described, including the elements of subversive activity of the special services, the activation of the military phase and the gradual shift of the focus of confrontation to the realm of information and communication technologies. We reveal an emergence of a threat for democratic states resulting from the destabilizing impact of a target state’s mass media and social networks being exploited by Russian secret services under freedom-of-speech disguise. Thus, we underline the vulnerability of cyber- and information security of the network society in regard of hybrid war. We propose to define the latter a synergetic war. Our analysis is supported with a long-term qualitative monitoring of representation of top state officials on popular TV channels and Facebook. From the memetics point of view, we have detected a destructive psycho-information technology used by the Kremlin, a kind of information catastrophe, the essence of which is explained in detail. In the conclusion, a comprehensive plan for information protection of the public consciousness and mentality of Euro-Atlantic citizens from the aggression of the enemy is proposed.

Keywords: cyber and information security, hybrid war, psycho-information technology, synergetic war, Ruschism

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Saira Mehnaz, Ali Jafar Abedi, Shazia Farooq Fazli, Sakeena Mushfiq, Zulfia Khan, M. Athar Ansari

Abstract:

Introduction: Public health spending is a necessity in an underdeveloped country like India. The people are already suffering from poverty and that clubbed with out of pocket expenditure leads them to a very catastrophic situation, reducing the overall access to healthcare. Objectives: This study was designed to determine the usual source of medical care opted, the illness pattern, the expenditure incurred on illness and its source of procurement by the study population. It also intended to assess this expenditure as a determinant of access to health care. Methodology: Cities like Aligarh, which are classified as B grade cities in India are thought to be ripe sites for getting livelihood and hence are almost half filled with migrants living in urban slums. A cross sectional study was done to study the newer slum pockets. 3409 households with a population of 16,978 were studied with the help of pretested questionnaire; SPSS 20 was used for statistical analysis. Results and Conclusions: In our study, we found that almost all the households suffered from catastrophic health expenditure. The study population, which was already vulnerable owing to their low socio-economic and migrant status was further being forced with into poverty and indebtedness on account of expenditure on illness. This lead to a significant decrease in access to health. National health financing systems should be designed to protect households from financial catastrophe, by reducing out-of-pocket spending.

Keywords: access to healthcare, catastrophic health expenditure, new urban slums, out of pocket expenditure

Procedia PDF Downloads 170

Authors: Anita De Melo

Abstract:

Today we live in a crucial time of ecological crisis, of environmental catastrophes worldwide, and this scenario is, arrogantly, overlooked by powerful economic forces and their politics. Thus, a critical pedagogy that leads to action and that fosters ecoliteracy, environment education, is now inevitable, and it must become an integral part of the school curriculum across the disciplines, including the social sciences and the humanities. One of the most important contemporary and emerging movement of today is ecopedagogy, a movement that blends theory and ethics towards a curriculum that focus on an environmental education that will promote ecological justice, respect, and care by educating students to become planetary citizens. This paper aims, first, to emphasize the need for discussions and investigations regarding ecoliteracy within our field of teaching foreign languages, which will consider, among others, the of role language in stimulating sustainability, and the role of second language proficiency in fostering positive transnational dialogues conducive to fighting our current planetary crisis. Second, this paper suggests and discusses some critical ecopedagogical practices -- in the form of project-based learning, service-learning and environmental-oriented study abroad programs – apropos to ecoliteracy. These interdisciplinary projects can and should bring students in contact with communities speaking the target language, and such encounter would facilitate cultural exchanges and promote positive language proficiency whilst it would also give students the opportunity to work with finding ideas/projects to fight our current ecological catastrophe.

Keywords: critical pedagogy, ecoliteracy, ecopedagogy, planetary crisis

Procedia PDF Downloads 219

Authors: Pilar Gamarra Gamarra, Michele Girotto

Abstract:

In the expanding field of leaders’ ethical behavior research, little attention has been paid to the association between finance leaders’ ethical traits (beyond personality) and ethical leadership, and more importantly, how these ethical characteristics can be predictors of ethical behavior at the leadership level in the financial sector. In this study, we tested a theoretical model based on uponsocial cognitive theory (Bandura, 1986) and the cognitive-developmental model (Piaget, 1932) to examine leaders’ moral identity and moral attentiveness as antecedents of ethical leadership. After the 2008 economic crisis, the marketplace has awakened to the potential dangers of unethical behavior. The unethical behavior of the leaders of the financial sector was identified as guilty of this economic catastrophe. For that reason, it seems increasingly prudent for organizations to have leaders who are cognitively inclined toward ethical behavior. This evidence suggests that moral attentiveness and moral identity is perhaps one way of identifying those kinds of leaders. For leaders who are morally attentive and have a high moral identity, themes of ethics interventions are consistent with their way of seeing the word. As a result, these leaders could become critical components of change in organizations and could provide the energy and skills necessary for these efforts to be successful. Ethical behavior of leader from the financial sector and marketing sectors must be joined to manage the change. In this study, a leader’s moral identity, leader’s moral attentiveness, and self-importance of Ethical Leadership are measured for financial and marketing leaders to be compared to determine the relationship between the three variables in each sector. Other conclusion related to gender, educational level or generation are obtained.

Keywords: ethical leadership, moral identity, moral attentiveness, financial leaders, marketing leaders, ethical behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Sujan Tyata, Alison Shilpakar, Nayan Bakhadyo, Kushal K. C., Abhas Maskey

Abstract:

The Koshi River, acknowledged as the "Sorrow of Bihar," poses intricate challenges characterized by recurrent flooding. Within the Koshi Basin, floods have historically inflicted damage on infrastructure, agriculture, and settlements. The Koshi River exhibits a highly braided pattern across a 48 km stretch to the south of Chatara. The devastating flood from the Koshi River, which began in Nepal's Sunsari District in 2008, led to significant casualties and the destruction of agricultural areas.The catastrophe was exacerbated by a levee breach, underscoring the vulnerability of the region's flood defenses. A comprehensive understanding of environmental changes in the area is unveiled through satellite imagery analysis. This analysis facilitates the identification of high-risk zones and their contributing factors. Employing remote sensing, the analysis specifically pinpoints locations vulnerable to levee breaches. Topographical features of the area along with longitudinal and cross sectional profiles of the river and levee obtained from digital elevation model are used in the hydrological analysis for assessment of flood. To mitigate the impact of floods, the strategy involves the establishment of reservoirs upstream. Leveraging satellite data, optimal locations for water storage are identified. This approach presents a dual opportunity to not only alleviate flood risks but also catalyze the implementation of pumped storage hydropower initiatives. This holistic approach addresses environmental challenges while championing sustainable energy solutions.

Keywords: flood mitigation, levee, remote sensing, satellite imagery analysis, sustainable energy solutions

Procedia PDF Downloads 24