Search results for: backward chaining inference

Authors: M. Celeska, K. Najdenkoski, V. Dimchev, V. Stoilkov

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Accurate determination of wind turbine performance is necessary for economic operation of a wind farm. At present, the procedure to carry out the power performance verification of wind turbines is based on a standard of the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC). In this paper, nonparametric statistical inference is applied to designing a simple, inexpensive method of verifying the power performance of a wind turbine. A statistical test is explained, examined, and the adequacy is tested over real data. The methods use the information that is collected by the SCADA system (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) from the sensors embedded in the wind turbines in order to carry out the power performance verification of a wind farm. The study has used data on the monthly output of wind farm in the Republic of Macedonia, and the time measuring interval was from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2016. At the end, it is concluded whether the power performance of a wind turbine differed significantly from what would be expected. The results of the implementation of the proposed methods showed that the power performance of the specific wind farm under assessment was acceptable.

Keywords: canonical correlation analysis, power curve, power performance, wind energy

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Authors: Hirofumi Miyajima, Kazuya Kishida, Noritaka Shigei, Hiromi Miyajima

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Most of self-tuning fuzzy systems, which are automatically constructed from learning data, are based on the steepest descent method (SDM). However, this approach often requires a large convergence time and gets stuck into a shallow local minimum. One of its solutions is to use fuzzy rule modules with a small number of inputs such as DIRMs (Double-Input Rule Modules) and SIRMs (Single-Input Rule Modules). In this paper, we consider a (generalized) DIRMs model composed of double and single-input rule modules. Further, in order to reduce the redundant modules for the (generalized) DIRMs model, pruning and generative learning algorithms for the model are suggested. In order to show the effectiveness of them, numerical simulations for function approximation, Box-Jenkins and obstacle avoidance problems are performed.

Keywords: Box-Jenkins's problem, double-input rule module, fuzzy inference model, obstacle avoidance, single-input rule module

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Authors: Ruchika Yadav

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Street vendors are the integral component of urban economies of the world. They are the distributors of affordable goods and services and provide convenient and accessible retail options to the customers and form a vital part of the social and economic life of a city. A street vendor as an occupation existed for hundreds of years and considered to be as a cornerstone of many cities. In this paper, our objective is to analyze the socio-economic profile of street vendors, identification of their problems and to suggest remedial measures for the betterment based on the observation and suggestions of the street vendors. To conduct this study, primary data has been collected with the help of field survey and direct questionnaire to the respondents in Aligarh City which contains all the information relevant to social and economic conditions. The overall analysis of this study reveals street vendors are the backward sections of the society possess medium to the low-level standard of living due to illiteracy; their working environment and social security issues are not addressed properly. They are unaware of many of the governmental schemes launched for poverty alleviation and their poor accessibility in basic amenities leads to the backward socio-economic status in the society. The results found in this study can be very useful and helping tool for the policymakers to know the socio-economic conditions of the street vendors in detail.

Keywords: abject poverty, socio-economic conditions, street vendors, vulnerability

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Authors: Hassan Naseh, Javad Roozgard

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This paper represents the methodology based on Artificial Intelligent (AI) applied to Liquid Propellant Engine (LPE) optimization. The AI methodology utilized from Adaptive neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). In this methodology, the optimum objective function means to achieve maximum performance (specific impulse). The independent design variables in ANFIS modeling are combustion chamber pressure and temperature and oxidizer to fuel ratio and output of this modeling are specific impulse that can be applied with other objective functions in LPE design optimization. To this end, the LPE’s parameter has been modeled in ANFIS methodology based on generating fuzzy inference system structure by using grid partitioning, subtractive clustering and Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering for both inferences (Mamdani and Sugeno) and various types of membership functions. The final comparing optimization results shown accuracy and processing run time of the Gaussian ANFIS Methodology between all methods.

Keywords: ANFIS methodology, artificial intelligent, liquid propellant engine, optimization

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Authors: Vano Benidze, Ioseb Berikashvili

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Since 2003, Georgia has implemented many successful reforms, however, economic growth, poverty alleviation and unemployment reduction are still major challenges facing country’s economy. This is due to the fact that most reforms during the past 2 decades were mainly geared toward improving the institutional environment, while economy’s sectoral composition and industrial policy were largely ignored. Each individual sector plays its own specific role in the functioning of the whole economy that cannot be accomplished by any other sector. However, given the unavoidable reality that one sector uses intermediate inputs from other industries to produce its output and sells part of its output to other sectors, the importance of sectors should consider these sectoral interdependencies as well. Simply put, not all industries are equally useful for economic growth and development. In this context, the aim of this paper is to identify the key economic sectors of the Georgian economy. Leontief input-output analysis has been used in deriving backward and forwards linkages for all sectors in the Georgian economy for 2020 and 2021. Sectors with both high backward and forward linkages have been identified as key sectors of the economy. The results obtained are beneficial for the success of the economic and industrial policy of Georgia. If targeted properly by thoughtful policy intervention, key sectors identified in this paper will have a high potential of spreading growth impulses throughout the economy and will possibly generate higher economic growth.

Keywords: structural change, key sectors, development strategies, input-output analysis

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Authors: Yu-Wen Chen, Szu-Wei Huang, Chung-Hsiang Mu, Kelvin Cheng

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This paper developed a data-driven based model to deal with the causality between the Continuous Emission Monitoring System (CEMS, by Environmental Protection Administration, Taiwan) in industrial factories, and the air quality around environment. Compared to the heavy burden of traditional numerical models of regional weather and air pollution simulation, the lightweight burden of the proposed model can provide forecasting hourly with current observations of weather, air pollution and emissions from factories. The observation data are included wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, temperature and others. The observations can be collected real time from Open APIs of civil IoT Taiwan, which are sourced from 439 weather stations, 10,193 qualitative air stations, 77 national quantitative stations and 140 CEMS quantitative industrial factories. This study completed a causal inference engine and gave an air pollution forecasting for the next 12 hours related to local industrial factories. The outcomes of the pollution forecasting are produced hourly with a grid resolution of 1km*1km on IIoTC (Industrial Internet of Things Cloud) and saved in netCDF4 format. The elaborated procedures to generate forecasts comprise data recalibrating, outlier elimination, Kriging Interpolation and particle tracking and random walk techniques for the mechanisms of diffusion and advection. The solution of these equations reveals the causality between factories emission and the associated air pollution. Further, with the aid of installed real-time flue emission (Total Suspension Emission, TSP) sensors and the mentioned forecasted air pollution map, this study also disclosed the converting mechanism between the TSP and PM2.5/PM10 for different region and industrial characteristics, according to the long-term data observation and calibration. These different time-series qualitative and quantitative data which successfully achieved a causal inference engine in cloud for factory management control in practicable. Once the forecasted air quality for a region is marked as harmful, the correlated factories are notified and asked to suppress its operation and reduces emission in advance.

Keywords: continuous emission monitoring system, total suspension particulates, causal inference, air pollution forecast, IoT

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Authors: Yaowei Hu, Yongkai Wu, Lu Zhang, Xintao Wu

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Causal inference from observational data is receiving wide applications in many fields. However, unidentifiable situations, where causal effects cannot be uniquely computed from observational data, pose critical barriers to applying causal inference to complicated real applications. In this paper, we develop a bounding method for estimating the average causal effect (ACE) under unidentifiable situations due to hidden confounders. We propose to parameterize the unknown exogenous random variables and structural equations of a causal model using neural networks and implicit generative models. Then, with an adversarial learning framework, we search the parameter space to explicitly traverse causal models that agree with the given observational distribution and find those that minimize or maximize the ACE to obtain its lower and upper bounds. The proposed method does not make any assumption about the data generating process and the type of the variables. Experiments using both synthetic and real-world datasets show the effectiveness of the method.

Keywords: average causal effect, hidden confounding, bound estimation, generative adversarial learning

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Authors: Azzedine Hamza, Chouaib Chakour, Messaoud Ramdani

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Energy demand prediction plays a crucial role in achieving next-generation power systems for agricultural greenhouses. As a result, high prediction quality is required for efficient smart grid management and therefore low-cost energy consumption. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of a hybrid data-driven model in day-ahead energy demand prediction. The proposed model consists of Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The DWT is employed to decompose the original signal in a set of subseries and then an ANFIS is used to generate the forecast for each subseries. The proposed hybrid method (DWT-ANFIS) was evaluated using a greenhouse energy demand data for a week and compared with ANFIS. The performances of the different models were evaluated by comparing the corresponding values of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). It was demonstrated that discret wavelet transform can improve agricultural greenhouse energy demand modeling.

Keywords: wavelet transform, ANFIS, energy consumption prediction, greenhouse

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Authors: Kharisma Utomo Mulyodinoto, Suwarno, A. Abu-Siada

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Dissolved Gas Analysis is one of impressive technique to detect and predict internal fault of transformers by using gas generated by transformer oil sample. A number of methods are used to interpret the dissolved gas from transformer oil sample: Doernenberg Ratio Method, IEC (International Electrotechnical Commission) Ratio Method, and Duval Triangle Method. While the assessment of dissolved gas within transformer oil samples has been standardized over the past two decades, analysis of the results is not always straight forward as it depends on personnel expertise more than mathematical formulas. To get over this limitation, this paper is aimed at improving the interpretation of Doernenberg Ratio Method, IEC Ratio Method, and Duval Triangle Method using Two Stages Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Dissolved gas analysis data from 520 faulty transformers was analyzed to establish the proposed ANFIS model. Results show that the developed ANFIS model is accurate and can standardize the dissolved gas interpretation process with accuracy higher than 90%.

Keywords: ANFIS, dissolved gas analysis, Doernenberg ratio method, Duval triangular method, IEC ratio method, transformer

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Authors: Mohammad A. N. M. Shafiqul Karim

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As a developing country, Bangladesh has to face numerous challenges. Self Independence in electricity, contributing to climate change by reducing carbon emission and bringing the backward population of society to the mainstream is more challenging for them. Therefore, it is essential to ensure recycled use of local products to the maximum level in every sector. Some private organizations have already worked alongside government to bring the backward population to the mainstream by developing their financial capacities. As rice husk is the largest single category of the total energy supply in Bangladesh. As part of this strategy, rice husk can play a great as a promising renewable energy source, which is readily available, has considerable environmental benefits and can produce electricity and ensure multiple uses of byproducts in construction technology. For the first time in Bangladesh, an experimental multidimensional project depending on Rice Husk Electricity and Rice Husk Ash (RHA) concrete brick/block under Green Eco-Tech Limited has already been started. Project analysis, opportunity, sustainability, the high monitoring component, limitations and finally evaluated data reflecting the viability of establishing more projects using rice husk are discussed in this paper. The by-product of rice husk from the production of green electricity, RHA, can be used for making, in particular, RHA concrete brick/block in Bangladeshi aspects is also discussed here.

Keywords: project analysis, rice husk, rice husk ash concrete brick/block, compressive strength of rice husk ash concrete brick/block

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Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin

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Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.

Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference

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Authors: Belalia Douma Omar, Bakhta Boukhatem, Mohamed Ghrici

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Self-compacting concrete (SCC) developed in Japan in the late 80s has enabled the construction industry to reduce demand on the resources, improve the work condition and also reduce the impact of environment by elimination of the need for compaction. Fuzzy logic (FL) approaches has recently been used to model some of the human activities in many areas of civil engineering applications. Especially from these systems in the model experimental studies, very good results have been obtained. In the present study, a model for predicting compressive strength of SCC containing various proportions of fly ash, as partial replacement of cement has been developed by using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). For the purpose of building this model, a database of experimental data were gathered from the literature and used for training and testing the model. The used data as the inputs of fuzzy logic models are arranged in a format of five parameters that cover the total binder content, fly ash replacement percentage, water content, super plasticizer and age of specimens. The training and testing results in the fuzzy logic model have shown a strong potential for predicting the compressive strength of SCC containing fly ash in the considered range.

Keywords: self-compacting concrete, fly ash, strength prediction, fuzzy logic

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Authors: Wided Bakari, Patrice Bellot, Omar Trigui, Mahmoud Neji

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This article constitutes an opening to think of the modeling and analysis of Arabic texts in the context of a question-answer system. It is a question of exceeding the traditional approaches focused on morphosyntactic approaches. Furthermore, we present a new approach that analyze a text in order to extract correct answers then transform it to logical predicates. In addition, we would like to represent different levels of information within a text to answer a question and choose an answer among several proposed. To do so, we transform both the question and the text into logical forms. Then, we try to recognize all entailment between them. The results of recognizing the entailment are a set of text sentences that can implicate the user’s question. Our work is now concentrated on an implementation step in order to develop a system of question-answering in Arabic using techniques to recognize textual implications. In this context, the extraction of text features (keywords, named entities, and relationships that link them) is actually considered the first step in our process of text modeling. The second one is the use of techniques of textual implication that relies on the notion of inference and logic representation to extract candidate answers. The last step is the extraction and selection of the desired answer.

Keywords: NLP, Arabic language, question-answering, recognition text entailment, logic forms

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Authors: Seyed Abbas Tabatabaei, Fereydoon Moghadas Nejad, Mohammad Saed

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The bleeding prediction of the asphalt is one of the most complex subjects in the pavement engineering. In this paper, an Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is used for modeling the effect of important parameters on bleeding is trained and tested with the experimental results. bleeding index based on the asphalt film thickness differential as target parameter,asphalt content, temperature depth of two centemeter, heavy traffic, dust to effective binder, Marshall strength, passing 3/4 sieves, passing 3/8 sieves,passing 3/16 sieves, passing NO8, passing NO50, passing NO100, passing NO200 as input parameters. Then, we randomly divided empirical data into train and test sections in order to accomplish modeling. We instructed ANFIS network by 72 percent of empirical data. 28 percent of primary data which had been considered for testing the approprativity of the modeling were entered into ANFIS model. Results were compared by two statistical criterions (R2, RMSE) with empirical ones. Considering the results, it is obvious that our proposed modeling by ANFIS is efficient and valid and it can also be promoted to more general states.

Keywords: bleeding, asphalt film thickness differential, Anfis Modeling

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Authors: Julien Deborde, Thomas Milcent, Stéphane Glockner, Pierre Lubin

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A fully Eulerian method is developed to solve the problem of fluid-elastic structure interactions based on a 1-fluid method. The interface between the fluid and the elastic structure is captured by a level set function, advected by the fluid velocity and solved with a WENO 5 scheme. The elastic deformations are computed in an Eulerian framework thanks to the backward characteristics. We use the Neo Hookean or Mooney Rivlin hyperelastic models and the elastic forces are incorporated as a source term in the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. The velocity/pressure coupling is solved with a pressure-correction method and the equations are discretized by finite volume schemes on a Cartesian grid. The main difficulty resides in that large deformations in the fluid cause numerical instabilities. In order to avoid these problems, we use a re-initialization process for the level set and linear extrapolation of the backward characteristics. First, we verify and validate our approach on several test cases, including the benchmark of FSI proposed by Turek. Next, we apply this method to study the wave damping phenomenon which is a mean to reduce the waves impact on the coastline. So far, to our knowledge, only simulations with rigid or one dimensional elastic structure has been studied in the literature. We propose to place elastic structures on the seabed and we present results where 50 % of waves energy is absorbed.

Keywords: damping wave, Eulerian formulation, finite volume, fluid structure interaction, hyperelastic material

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Authors: Shuen-Tai Wang, Yu-Ching Lin

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With more and more workflow systems adopting cloud as their execution environment, it presents various challenges that need to be addressed in order to be utilized efficiently. This paper introduces a method for resource provisioning based on our previous research of dynamic allocation and its pipeline processes. We present an abstraction for workload scheduling in which independent tasks get scheduled among various available processors of distributed computing for optimization. We also propose an integrated web-based workflow designer by taking advantage of the HTML5 technology and chaining together multiple tools. In order to make the combination of multiple pipelines executing on the cloud in parallel, we develop a script translator and an execution engine for workflow management in the cloud. All information is known in advance by the workflow engine and tasks are allocated according to the prior knowledge in the repository. This proposed effort has the potential to provide support for process definition, workflow enactment and monitoring of workflow processes. Users would benefit from the web-based system that allows creation and execution of pipelines without scripting knowledge.

Keywords: workflow systems, resources provisioning, workload scheduling, web-based, workflow engine

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Authors: Anandita Mitro, Archana Srivastava, Bidisha Banerjee

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The present paper attempts to analyze the hierarchy and interconnection of factors responsible for the uptake of BCG vaccination in India. The study uses National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) data which was conducted during 2019-21. The univariate logistic regression method is used to understand the univariate effects while the interconnection effects have been studied using the Categorical Inference Tree (CIT) which is a non-parametric Machine Learning (ML) model. The hierarchy of the factors is further established using Conditional Inference Forest which is an extension of the CIT approach. The results suggest that BCG vaccination coverage was influenced more by system-level factors and awareness than education or socio-economic status. Factors such as place of delivery, antenatal care, and postnatal care were crucial, with variations based on delivery location. Region-specific differences were also observed which could be explained by the factors. Awareness of the disease was less impactful along with the factor of wealth and urban or rural residence, although awareness did appear to substitute for inadequate ANC. Thus, from the policy point of view, it is revealed that certain subpopulations have less prevalence of vaccination which implies that there is a need for population-specific policy action to achieve a hundred percent coverage.

Keywords: vaccination, NFHS, machine learning, public health

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Authors: Wanhyun Cho, Soonja Kang, Sangkyoon Kim, Soonyoung Park

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In this paper, we present the human action recognition method using the variational Bayesian HMM with the Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) of the Gaussian-Wishart emission model (GWEM). First, we define the Bayesian HMM based on the Dirichlet process, which allows an infinite number of Gaussian-Wishart components to support continuous emission observations. Second, we have considered an efficient variational Bayesian inference method that can be applied to drive the posterior distribution of hidden variables and model parameters for the proposed model based on training data. And then we have derived the predictive distribution that may be used to classify new action. Third, the paper proposes a process of extracting appropriate spatial-temporal feature vectors that can be used to recognize a wide range of human behaviors from input video image. Finally, we have conducted experiments that can evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The experimental results show that the method presented is more efficient with human action recognition than existing methods.

Keywords: human action recognition, Bayesian HMM, Dirichlet process mixture model, Gaussian-Wishart emission model, Variational Bayesian inference, prior distribution and approximate posterior distribution, KTH dataset

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Authors: Moustafa Osman Mohammed

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This paper is mapping air quality model to engineering the industrial system that ultimately utilized in extensive range of energy systems, distribution resources, and end-user technologies. The model is determining long-range transport patterns contribution as area source can either traced from 48 hrs backward trajectory model or remotely described from background measurements data in those days. The trajectory model will be run within stable conditions and quite constant parameters of the atmospheric pressure at the most time of the year. Air parcel trajectory is necessary for estimating the long-range transport of pollutants and other chemical species. It provides a better understanding of airflow patterns. Since a large amount of meteorological data and a great number of calculations are required to drive trajectory, it will be very useful to apply HYPSLIT model to locate areas and boundaries influence air quality at regional location of Windsor. 2–days backward trajectories model at high and low concentration measurements below and upward the benchmark which was areas influence air quality measurement levels. The benchmark level will be considered as 30 (μg/m3) as the moderate level for Ontario region. Thereby, air quality model is incorporating a midpoint concept between biotic and abiotic components to broaden the scope of quantification impact. The later outcomes’ theories of environmental obligation suggest either a recommendation or a decision of what is a legislative should be achieved in mitigation measures of air emission impact ultimately.

Keywords: air quality, management systems, environmental impact assessment, industrial ecology, climate change

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Authors: Szymon Rutkowski, Tomasz Korbak

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We present a reinforcement-learning-based method of training neural machine translation models without parallel corpora. The standard encoder-decoder approach to machine translation suffers from two problems we aim to address. First, it needs parallel corpora, which are scarce, especially for low-resource languages. Second, it lacks psychological plausibility of learning procedure: learning a foreign language is about learning to communicate useful information, not merely learning to transduce from one language’s 'encoding' to another. We instead pose the problem of learning to translate as learning a policy in a communication game between two agents: the translator and the classifier. The classifier is trained beforehand on a natural language inference task (determining the entailment relation between a premise and a hypothesis) in the target language. The translator produces a sequence of actions that correspond to generating translations of both the hypothesis and premise, which are then passed to the classifier. The translator is rewarded for classifier’s performance on determining entailment between sentences translated by the translator to disciple’s native language. Translator’s performance thus reflects its ability to communicate useful information to the classifier. In effect, we train a machine translation model without the need for parallel corpora altogether. While similar reinforcement learning formulations for zero-shot translation were proposed before, there is a number of improvements we introduce. While prior research aimed at grounding the translation task in the physical world by evaluating agents on an image captioning task, we found that using a linguistic task is more sample-efficient. Natural language inference (also known as recognizing textual entailment) captures semantic properties of sentence pairs that are poorly correlated with semantic similarity, thus enforcing basic understanding of the role played by compositionality. It has been shown that models trained recognizing textual entailment produce high-quality general-purpose sentence embeddings transferrable to other tasks. We use stanford natural language inference (SNLI) dataset as well as its analogous datasets for French (XNLI) and Polish (CDSCorpus). Textual entailment corpora can be obtained relatively easily for any language, which makes our approach more extensible to low-resource languages than traditional approaches based on parallel corpora. We evaluated a number of reinforcement learning algorithms (including policy gradients and actor-critic) to solve the problem of translator’s policy optimization and found that our attempts yield some promising improvements over previous approaches to reinforcement-learning based zero-shot machine translation.

Keywords: agent-based language learning, low-resource translation, natural language inference, neural machine translation, reinforcement learning

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Authors: H. Bonakdari, I. Ebtehaj

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The prediction of scour depth around bridge piers is frequently considered in river engineering. One of the key aspects in efficient and optimum bridge structure design is considered to be scour depth estimation around bridge piers. In this study, scour depth around bridge piers is estimated using two methods, namely the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Therefore, the effective parameters in scour depth prediction are determined using the ANN and ANFIS methods via dimensional analysis, and subsequently, the parameters are predicted. In the current study, the methods’ performances are compared with the nonlinear regression (NLR) method. The results show that both methods presented in this study outperform existing methods. Moreover, using the ratio of pier length to flow depth, ratio of median diameter of particles to flow depth, ratio of pier width to flow depth, the Froude number and standard deviation of bed grain size parameters leads to optimal performance in scour depth estimation.

Keywords: adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), artificial neural network (ANN), bridge pier, scour depth, nonlinear regression (NLR)

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Authors: I. M. L. Nadeesha Jayaweera, Adao Alex Trindade

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In choosing a candidate model in likelihood-based modeling via an information criterion, the practitioner is often faced with the difficult task of deciding just how far up the ranked list to look. Motivated by this pragmatic necessity, we construct an uncertainty band for a generalized (model selection) information criterion (GIC), defined as a criterion for which the limit in probability is identical to that of the normalized log-likelihood. This includes common special cases such as AIC & BIC. The method starts from the asymptotic normality of the GIC for the joint distribution of the candidate models in an independent and identically distributed (IID) data framework and proceeds by deriving the (asymptotically) exact distribution of the minimum. The calculation of an upper quantile for its distribution then involves the computation of multivariate Gaussian integrals, which is amenable to efficient implementation via the R package "mvtnorm". The performance of the methodology is tested on simulated data by checking the coverage probability of nominal upper quantiles and compared to the bootstrap. Both methods give coverages close to nominal for large samples, but the bootstrap is two orders of magnitude slower. The methodology is subsequently extended to two other commonly used model structures: regression and time series. In the regression case, we derive the corresponding asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC invoking Lindeberg-Feller type conditions for triangular arrays and are thus able to similarly calculate upper quantiles for its distribution via multivariate Gaussian integration. The bootstrap once again provides a default competing procedure, and we find that similar comparison performance metrics hold as for the IID case. The time series case is complicated by far more intricate asymptotic regime for the joint distribution of the model GIC statistics. Under a Gaussian likelihood, the default in most packages, one needs to derive the limiting distribution of a normalized quadratic form for a realization from a stationary series. Under conditions on the process satisfied by ARMA models, a multivariate normal limit is once again achieved. The bootstrap can, however, be employed for its computation, whence we are once again in the multivariate Gaussian integration paradigm for upper quantile evaluation. Comparisons of this bootstrap-aided semi-exact method with the full-blown bootstrap once again reveal a similar performance but faster computation speeds. One of the most difficult problems in contemporary statistical methodological research is to be able to account for the extra variability introduced by model selection uncertainty, the so-called post-model selection inference (PMSI). We explore ways in which the GIC uncertainty band can be inverted to make inferences on the parameters. This is being attempted in the IID case by pivoting the CDF of the asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC. For inference one parameter at a time and a small number of candidate models, this works well, whence the attained PMSI confidence intervals are wider than the MLE-based Wald, as expected.

Keywords: model selection inference, generalized information criteria, post model selection, Asymptotic Theory

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Authors: Seyedeh Nahal Sadiri, Ardalan Shariat

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Developing flexibility, by using pilates, would be useful for karate players by reducing the stiffness of muscles and tendons. This study aimed to determine the effects of 12-week pilates training on flexibility, and level of perceived exertion of back muscles among karate players. In this experimental study, 29 male karate players (age: 16-18 years) were randomized to pilates (n=15), and control (n=14) groups and the assessments were done in baseline and after 12-week intervention. Both groups completed 12-week of intervention (2 hours of training, 3 times weekly). The experimental group performed 30 minutes pilates within their warm-up and preparation phase, where the control group only attended their usual karate training. Digital backward flexmeter was used to evaluate the trunk extensors flexibility, and digital forward flexmeter was used to measure the trunk flexors flexibility. Borg CR-10 Scale was also used to determine the perceived exertion of back muscles. Independent samples t-test and paired sample t-test were used to analyze the data. There was a significant difference between the mean score of experimental and control groups in the level of backward trunk flexibility (P < 0.05), forward trunk flexibility (P < 0.05) after 12-week intervention. The results of Borg CR-10 scale showed a significant improvement in pilates group (P < 0.05). Karate instructors, coaches, and athletes can integrate pilates exercises with karate training in order to improve the flexibility, and level of perceived exertion of back muscles.

Keywords: pilates training, karate players, flexibility, Borg CR-10

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Authors: Atousa Ataieyan, Salvador A. Gomez-Lopera, Gennaro Sepede

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Today, due to the growing urban population and consequently, the increasing water demand in cities, the amount of contaminants entering the water resources is increasing. This can impose harmful effects on the quality of the downstream water. Therefore, predicting the concentration of discharged pollutants at different times and distances of the interested area is of high importance in order to carry out preventative and controlling measures, as well as to avoid consuming the contaminated water. In this paper, the concentration distribution of an injected conservative pollutant in a square reservoir containing four symmetric blocks and three sources using Finite Volume Method (FVM) is simulated. For this purpose, after estimating the flow velocity, classical Advection-Diffusion Equation (ADE) has been discretized over the studying domain by Backward Time- Backward Space (BTBS) scheme. Then, the discretized equations for each node have been derived according to the initial condition, boundary conditions and point contaminant sources. Finally, taking into account the appropriate time step and space step, a computational code was set up in MATLAB. Contaminant concentration was then obtained at different times and distances. Simulation results show how using BTBS differentiating scheme and FVM as a numerical method for solving the partial differential equation of transport is an appropriate approach in the case of two-dimensional contaminant transfer in an advective-diffusive flow.

Keywords: BTBS differentiating scheme, contaminant concentration, finite volume, mass transfer, water pollution

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Authors: Nicolas M. Beleski, Gustavo A. G. Lugo

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Robotic agents are taking more and increasingly important roles in society. In order to make these robots and agents more autonomous and efficient, their systems have grown to be considerably complex and convoluted. This growth in complexity has led recent researchers to investigate forms to explain the AI behavior behind these systems in search for more trustworthy interactions. A current problem in explainable AI is the inner workings with the logic inference process and how to conduct a sensibility analysis of the process of valuation and alteration of beliefs. In a social HRI (human-robot interaction) setup, theory of mind is crucial to ease the intentionality gap and to achieve that we should be able to infer over observed human behaviors, such as cases of cognitive dissonance. One specific case inspired in human cognition is the role emotions play on our belief system and the effects caused when observed behavior does not match the expected outcome. In such scenarios emotions can make a person wrongly assume the antecedent P for an observed consequent Q, and as a result, incorrectly assert that P is true. This form of cognitive dissonance where an unproven cause is taken as truth induces changes in the belief base which can directly affect future decisions and actions. If we aim to be inspired by human thoughts in order to apply levels of theory of mind to these artificial agents, we must find the conditions to replicate these observable cognitive mechanisms. To achieve this, a computational architecture is proposed to model the modulation effect emotions have on the belief system and how it affects logic inference process and consequently the decision making of an agent. To validate the model, an experiment based on the prisoner's dilemma is currently under development. The hypothesis to be tested involves two main points: how emotions, modeled as internal argument strength modulators, can alter inference outcomes, and how can explainable outcomes be produced under specific forms of cognitive dissonance.

Keywords: cognitive architecture, cognitive dissonance, explainable ai, sensitivity analysis, theory of mind

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Authors: Ahmet Kayabasi, Ali Akdagli

Abstract:

In this study, three robust predicting methods, namely artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and support vector machine (SVM) were used for computing the resonant frequency of A-shaped compact microstrip antennas (ACMAs) operating at UHF band. Firstly, the resonant frequencies of 144 ACMAs with various dimensions and electrical parameters were simulated with the help of IE3D™ based on method of moment (MoM). The ANN, ANFIS and SVM models for computing the resonant frequency were then built by considering the simulation data. 124 simulated ACMAs were utilized for training and the remaining 20 ACMAs were used for testing the ANN, ANFIS and SVM models. The performance of the ANN, ANFIS and SVM models are compared in the training and test process. The average percentage errors (APE) regarding the computed resonant frequencies for training of the ANN, ANFIS and SVM were obtained as 0.457%, 0.399% and 0.600%, respectively. The constructed models were then tested and APE values as 0.601% for ANN, 0.744% for ANFIS and 0.623% for SVM were achieved. The results obtained here show that ANN, ANFIS and SVM methods can be successfully applied to compute the resonant frequency of ACMAs, since they are useful and versatile methods that yield accurate results.

Keywords: a-shaped compact microstrip antenna, artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), support vector machine (SVM)

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Authors: Zahra Abdolkarimi, Naser Zouri

Abstract:

Nowadays, there is unbelievable growing of Robots created a collection of complex and motivate subject in robotic and intellectual ornate, also it made a mechatronics style base of theoretical and technical way in Robocop. Additionally, robotics system recommended RoboCup factor as a provider of some standardization and testing method in case of computer discussion widely. The actual purpose of RoboCup is creating independent team of robots in 2050 based of FiFa roles to bring the victory in compare of world star team. In addition, decision making of robots depends to environment reaction, self-player and rival player with using inductive Fuzzy system valuation subsidiary to solve issue of robots in land game. The measure of selection in compare with other methods depends to amount of victories percentage in the same team that plays accidently. Consequences, shows method of our discussion is the best way for Particle Swarm Optimization and Fuzzy system compare to other decision of robotics algorithmic.

Keywords: PSO algorithm, inference fuzzy system, chaos theory, soccer robot league

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Authors: Joseph C. Chen, Venkata Mohan Kudapa

Abstract:

Development of two real-time surface roughness (Ra) prediction systems for milling operations was attempted. The systems used not only cutting parameters, such as feed rate and spindle speed, but also the cutting current generated and corrected by a clamp type energy sensor. Two different approaches were developed. First, a fuzzy inference system (FIS), in which the fuzzy logic rules are generated by experts in the milling processes, was used to conduct prediction modeling using current cutting data. Second, a neuro-fuzzy system (ANFIS) was explored. Neuro-fuzzy systems are adaptive techniques in which data are collected on the network, processed, and rules are generated by the system. The inference system then uses these rules to predict Ra as the output. Experimental results showed that the parameters of spindle speed, feed rate, depth of cut, and input current variation could predict Ra. These two systems enable the prediction of Ra during the milling operation with an average of 91.83% and 94.48% accuracy by FIS and ANFIS systems, respectively. Statistically, the ANFIS system provided better prediction accuracy than that of the FIS system.

Keywords: surface roughness, input current, fuzzy logic, neuro-fuzzy, milling operations

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Authors: Aschalew C. Workneh, K. S. Hari Prasad, C. S. P. Ojha

Abstract:

The crop water stress index (CWSI) is a cost-effective, non-destructive, and simple technique for tracking the start of crop water stress. This study investigated the feasibility of CWSI derived from canopy temperature to detect the water status of wheat crops. Artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have become increasingly popular in recent years for determining CWSI. In this study, the performance of two AI techniques, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and self-organizing maps (SOM), are compared while determining the CWSI of paddy crops. Field experiments were conducted for varying irrigation water applications during two seasons in 2022 and 2023 at the irrigation field laboratory at the Civil Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, India. The ANFIS and SOM-simulated CWSI values were compared with the experimentally calculated CWSI (EP-CWSI). Multiple regression analysis was used to determine the upper and lower CWSI baselines. The upper CWSI baseline was found to be a function of crop height and wind speed, while the lower CWSI baseline was a function of crop height, air vapor pressure deficit, and wind speed. The performance of ANFIS and SOM were compared based on mean absolute error (MAE), mean bias error (MBE), root mean squared error (RMSE), index of agreement (d), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and coefficient of correlation (R²). Both models successfully estimated the CWSI of the paddy crop with higher correlation coefficients and lower statistical errors. However, the ANFIS (R²=0.81, NSE=0.73, d=0.94, RMSE=0.04, MAE= 0.00-1.76 and MBE=-2.13-1.32) outperformed the SOM model (R²=0.77, NSE=0.68, d=0.90, RMSE=0.05, MAE= 0.00-2.13 and MBE=-2.29-1.45). Overall, the results suggest that ANFIS is a reliable tool for accurately determining CWSI in wheat crops compared to SOM.

Keywords: adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, canopy temperature, crop water stress index, self-organizing map, wheat

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Authors: Agung Budi Muljono, I Made Ginarsa, I Made Ari Nrartha

Abstract:

A large-scale power system (LSPS) consists of two or more sub-systems connected by inter-connecting transmission. Loading pattern on an LSPS always changes from time to time and varies depend on consumer need. The serious instability problem is appeared in an LSPS due to load fluctuation in all of the bus. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)-based power system stabilizer (PSS) is presented to cover the stability problem and to enhance the stability of an LSPS. The ANFIS control is presented because the ANFIS control is more effective than Mamdani fuzzy control in the computation aspect. Simulation results show that the presented PSS is able to maintain the stability by decreasing peak overshoot to the value of −2.56 × 10−5 pu for rotor speed deviation Δω2−3. The presented PSS also makes the settling time to achieve at 3.78 s on local mode oscillation. Furthermore, the presented PSS is able to improve the peak overshoot and settling time of Δω3−9 to the value of −0.868 × 10−5 pu and at the time of 3.50 s for inter-area oscillation.

Keywords: ANFIS, large-scale, power system, PSS, stability enhancement

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