Search results for: annual and daily flow duration curve

Authors: Majid Mathlouthi, Fethi Lebdi

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Throughout the world, the extent and magnitude of droughts have economic, social and environmental consequences. Today climate change has become more and more felt; most likely they increase the frequency and duration of droughts. An analysis by event of dry event, from series of observations of the daily rainfall is carried out. A daily precipitation threshold value has been set. A catchment localized in Northern Tunisia where the average rainfall is about 600 mm has been studied. Rainfall events are defined as an uninterrupted series of rainfall days understanding at least a day having received a precipitation superior or equal to a fixed threshold. The dry events are constituted of a series of dry days framed by two successive rainfall events. A rainfall event is a vector of coordinates the duration, the rainfall depth per event and the duration of the dry event. The depth and duration are found to be correlated. So we use conditional probabilities to analyse the depth per event. The negative binomial distribution fits well the dry event. The duration of the rainfall event follows a geometric distribution. The length of the climatically cycle adjusts to the Incomplete Gamma. Results of this analysis was used to study of the effects of climate change on water resources and crops and to calibrate precipitation models with little rainfall records. In response to long droughts in the basin, the drought management system is based on three phases during each of the three phases; different measurements are applied and executed. The first is before drought, preparedness and early warning; the second is drought management, mitigation in the event of drought; and the last subsequent drought, when the drought is over.

Keywords: dry spell, precipitation threshold, climate vulnerability, adaptation measures

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Authors: Anisul Islam

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The U.S. has a very strong trade relationship with China but with a large and persistent trade deficit. Some has argued that the undervalued Chinese Yuan is to be blamed for the persistent trade deficit. The empirical results are mixed at best. This paper empirically estimates the U.S. export function along with the U.S. import function with its trade with China with the purpose of testing for the existence of the Marshall-Lerner (ML) condition as well for the possible existence of the J-curve hypothesis. Annual export and import data will be utilized for as long as the time series data exists. The export and import functions will be estimated using advanced econometric techniques, along with appropriate diagnostic tests performed to examine the validity and reliability of the estimated results. The annual time-series data covers from 1975 to 2022 with a sample size of 48 years, the longest period ever utilized before in any previous study. The data is collected from several sources, such as the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, IMF Financial Statistics, IMF Direction of Trade Statistics, and several other sources. The paper is expected to shed important light on the ongoing debate regarding the persistent U.S. trade deficit with China and the policies that may be useful to reduce such deficits over time. As such, the paper will be of great interest for the academics, researchers, think tanks, global organizations, and policy makers in both China and the U.S.

Keywords: exports, imports, marshall-lerner condition, j-curve hypothesis, united states, china

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Authors: Renato Morbidelli, Carla Saltalippi, Alessia Flammini, Tommaso Picciafuoco, Corrado Corradini

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A considerable part of rainfall data to be used in the hydrological practice is available in aggregated form within constant time intervals. This can produce undesirable effects, like the underestimate of the annual maximum rainfall depth, Hd, associated with a given duration, d, that is the basic quantity in the development of rainfall depth-duration-frequency relationships and in determining if climate change is producing effects on extreme event intensities and frequencies. The errors in the evaluation of Hd from data characterized by a coarse temporal aggregation, ta, and a procedure to reduce the non-homogeneity of the Hd series are here investigated. Our results indicate that: 1) in the worst conditions, for d=ta, the estimation of a single Hd value can be affected by an underestimation error up to 50%, while the average underestimation error for a series with at least 15-20 Hd values, is less than or equal to 16.7%; 2) the underestimation error values follow an exponential probability density function; 3) each very long time series of Hd contains many underestimated values; 4) relationships between the non-dimensional ratio ta/d and the average underestimate of Hd, derived from continuous rainfall data observed in many stations of Central Italy, may overcome this issue; 5) these equations should allow to improve the Hd estimates and the associated depth-duration-frequency curves at least in areas with similar climatic conditions.

Keywords: central Italy, extreme events, rainfall data, underestimation errors

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Authors: Ahmed Eid, Amita Gupta

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Abstract: Background: Background Medical gases are estimated to contribute to 5% of the carbon footprints produced by hospitals, Desflurane has the largest impact, but all increase significantly when used with N2O admixture. Climate Change Act 2008, we must reduce our carbon emission by 80% of the 1990 baseline by 2050.NHS carbon emissions have reduced by 18.5% (2007-2017). The NHS Long Term Plan has outlined measures to achieve this objective, including a 2% reduction by transforming anaesthetic practices. FGF is an important variable that determines the utilization of inhalational agents and can be tightly controlled by the anaesthetist. Aims and Objectives Environmental safety, Identification of areas of high N20 and different anaesthetic agents used across the St Helier operating theatres and consider improvising on the current practice. Methods: Data was collected from St Helier operating theatres and retrieved daily from Care Station 650 anaesthetic machines. 60 cases were included in the sample. Collected data (average flow rate, amount and type of agent used, duration of surgery, type of surgery, duration, and the total amount of Air, O2 and N2O used. AAGBI impact anaesthesia calculator was used to identify the amount of CO2 produced and also the cost per hour for every pt. Communication via reminder emails to staff emphasized the significance of low-flow anaesthesia and departmental meeting presentations aimed at heightening awareness of LFA, Distribution of AAGBI calculator QR codes in all theatres enables the calculation of volatile anaesthetic consumption and CO2e post each case, facilitating informed environmental impact assessment. Results: A significant reduction in the flow rate use in the 2nd sample was observed, flow rate usage between 0-1L was 60% which means a great reduction of the consumption of volatile anaesthetics and also Co2e. By using LFA we can save money but most importantly we can make our lives much greener and save the planet.

Keywords: low flow anesthesia, sustainability project, N₂0, Co2e

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Authors: Li-hsing Shih, Tzu-hsun Yen

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Because of the long-term commitment to net zero carbon emission, utility companies include more renewable energy supply, which generates electricity with time and weather restrictions. This leads to time-of-use electricity pricing to reflect the actual cost of energy supply. From an end-user point of view, better residential energy management is needed to incorporate the time-of-use prices and assist end users in scheduling their daily use of electricity. This study uses bi-criteria optimization methods to schedule daily energy consumption by minimizing the electricity cost and maximizing the comfort of end users. Different from most previous research, this study schedules users’ activities rather than household appliances to have better measures of users’ comfort/satisfaction. The relation between each activity and the use of different appliances could be defined by users. The comfort level is at the highest when the time and duration of an activity completely meet the user’s expectation, and the comfort level decreases when the time and duration do not meet expectations. A questionnaire survey was conducted to collect data for establishing regression models that describe users’ comfort levels when the execution time and duration of activities are different from user expectations. Six regression models representing the comfort levels for six types of activities were established using the responses to the questionnaire survey. A computer program is developed to evaluate electricity cost and the comfort level for each feasible schedule and then find the non-dominated schedules. The Epsilon constraint method is used to find the optimal schedule out of the non-dominated schedules. A hypothetical case is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and the computer program. Using the program, users can obtain the optimal schedule of daily energy consumption by inputting the intended time and duration of activities and the given time-of-use electricity prices.

Keywords: bi-criteria optimization, energy consumption, time-of-use price, scheduling

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Authors: Getalem E. Haylia

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The Ribb dam is one of the irrigation projects in the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia, to irrigate the Fogera plain. Reservoir sedimentation is a major problem because it reduces the useful reservoir capacity by the accumulation of sediments coming from the watersheds. Estimates of sediment yield are needed for studies of reservoir sedimentation and planning of soil and water conservation measures. The objective of this study was to simulate the Ribb dam catchment sediment yield using SWAT model and to estimate Ribb reservoir effective life according to trap efficiency methods. The Ribb dam catchment is found in North Western part of Ethiopia highlands, and it belongs to the upper Blue Nile and Lake Tana basins. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was selected to simulate flow and sediment yield in the Ribb dam catchment. The model sensitivity, calibration, and validation analysis at Ambo Bahir site were performed with Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2). The flow data at this site was obtained by transforming the Lower Ribb gauge station (2002-2013) flow data using Area Ratio Method. The sediment load was derived based on the sediment concentration yield curve of Ambo site. Stream flow results showed that the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) was 0.81 and the coefficient of determination (R²) was 0.86 in calibration period (2004-2010) and, 0.74 and 0.77 in validation period (2011-2013), respectively. Using the same periods, the NS and R² for the sediment load calibration were 0.85 and 0.79 and, for the validation, it became 0.83 and 0.78, respectively. The simulated average daily flow rate and sediment yield generated from Ribb dam watershed were 3.38 m³/s and 1772.96 tons/km²/yr, respectively. The effective life of Ribb reservoir was estimated using the developed empirical methods of the Brune (1953), Churchill (1948) and Brown (1958) methods and found to be 30, 38 and 29 years respectively. To conclude, massive sediment comes from the steep slope agricultural areas, and approximately 98-100% of this incoming annual sediment loads have been trapped by the Ribb reservoir. In Ribb catchment, as well as reservoir systematic and thorough consideration of technical, social, environmental, and catchment managements and practices should be made to lengthen the useful life of Ribb reservoir.

Keywords: catchment, reservoir effective life, reservoir sedimentation, Ribb, sediment yield, SWAT model

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Authors: Zongjie Wang, Zhizhong Guo

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While the regular optimal power flow model focuses on a single time scan, the optimization of power systems is typically intended for a time duration with respect to a desired objective function. In this paper, a temporal optimal power flow model for a time period is proposed. To reduce the computation burden needed for calculating temporal optimal power flow, a characteristic optimal power flow model is proposed, which employs different characteristic load patterns to represent the objective function and security constraints. A numerical method based on the interior point method is also proposed for solving the characteristic optimal power flow model. Both the temporal optimal power flow model and characteristic optimal power flow model can improve the systems’ desired objective function for the entire time period. Numerical studies are conducted on the IEEE 14 and 118-bus test systems to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed characteristic optimal power flow model.

Keywords: optimal power flow, time period, security, economy

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Authors: Syed Hammad Ali, Rijan Bhakta Kayastha, Danial Hashmi, Richard Armstrong, Ahuti Shrestha, Iram Bano, Javed Hassan

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This paper presents the results of a semi-distributed modified positive degree-day model (MPDDM) for estimating snow and ice melt contributions to discharge from the glacierized Hunza River basin, Pakistan. The model uses daily temperature data, daily precipitation data, and positive degree day factors for snow and ice melt. The model is calibrated for the period 1995-2001 and validated for 2002-2013, and demonstrates close agreements between observed and simulated discharge with Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.88, respectively. Furthermore, the Weather Research and Forecasting model projected temperature, and precipitation data from 2016-2050 are used for representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and bias correction was done using a statistical approach for future discharge estimation. No drastic changes in future discharge are predicted for the emissions scenarios. The aggregate snow-ice melt contribution is 39% of total discharge in the period 1993-2013. Snow-ice melt contribution ranges from 35% to 63% during the high flow period (May to October), which constitutes 89% of annual discharge; in the low flow period (November to April) it ranges from 0.02% to 17%, which constitutes 11 % of the annual discharge. The snow-ice melt contribution to total discharge will increase gradually in the future and reach up to 45% in 2041-2050. From a sensitivity analysis, it is found that the combination of a 2°C temperature rise and 20% increase in precipitation shows a 10% increase in discharge. The study allows us to evaluate the impact of climate change in such basins and is also useful for the future prediction of discharge to define hydropower potential, inform other water resource management in the area, to understand future changes in snow-ice melt contribution to discharge, and offer a possible evaluation of future water quantity and availability.

Keywords: climate variability, future discharge projection, positive degree day, regional climate model, water resource management

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Authors: Jaber Masoud Alyami, Abdelsalam H. Alsrkhi

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Characterizing and modeling multi-phase flow is a complicated scientific and technical phenomenon represented by a variety of interrelated elements. Yet, the introduction of dimensionless numbers used to grasp gas-liquid flow is a significant step in controlling and improving the multi-phase flow area. SL (Slippage number), for instance is a strong dimensionless number defined as a the ratio of the difference in gravitational forces between slip and no-slip conditions to the inertial force of the gas. The fact that plotting SL versus Frm provides a single acceptable curve for all of the data provided proves that SL may be used to realize the behavior of gas-liquid flow. This paper creates a numerical link between SL and Froud mixing number using vertical gas-liquid flow and then utilizes that relationship to validate its reliability in practice. An improved correlation in drift flux model generated from the experimental data and its rationality has been verified. The method in this paper is to approach for predicting the void fraction in bubbly flow through SL/Frm relation and the limitations of this method, as well as areas for development, are stated.

Keywords: multiphase flow, gas-liquid flow, slippage, void farction

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Authors: Garima, S. Pushpavanam

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In this work, analysis of an Aqueous two-phase (polymer-salt) system for extraction of sunset yellow dye is carried out. A polymer-salt ATPS i.e.; Polyethylene glycol-600 and anhydrous sodium sulfate is used for the extraction. Conditions are chosen to ensure that the extraction results in a concentration of the dye in one of the phases. The dye has a propensity to come to the Polyethylene glycol-600 phase. This extracted sunset yellow dye is degraded photo catalytically into less harmful components. The cloud point method was used to obtain the binodal curve of ATPS. From the binodal curve, the composition of salt and Polyethylene glycol -600 was chosen such that the volume of Polyethylene glycol-600 rich phase is low. This was selected to concentrate the dye from a dilute solution in a large volume of contaminated solution into a small volume. This pre-concentration step provides a high reaction rate for photo catalytic degradation reaction. Experimentally the dye is extracted from the salt phase to Polyethylene glycol -600 phase in batch extraction. This was found to be very fast and all dye was extracted. The concentration of sunset yellow dye in salt and polymer phase is measured at 482nm by ultraviolet-visible spectrophotometry. The extraction experiment in micro channels under stratified flow is analyzed to determine factors which affect the dye extraction. Focus will be on obtaining slug flow by adding nanoparticles in micro channel. The primary aim is to exploit the fact that slug flow will help improve mass transfer rate from one phase to another through internal circulation in dispersed phase induced by shear.

Keywords: aqueous two phase system, binodal curve, extraction, sunset yellow dye

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Authors: Chakrit Chotamonsak, Eric P. Salathé Jr, Jiemjai Kreasuwan

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Dynamical downscaling of the ECHAM5 global climate model is applied at 20-km horizontal resolution using the WRF regional climate model (WRF-ECHAM5), to project changes from 1990–2009 to 2045–2064 of temperature and precipitation over the Upper Ping River Basin. The analysis found that monthly changes in daily temperature and precipitation over the basin for the 2045-2064 compared to the 1990-2009 are revealed over the basin all months, with the largest warmer in December and the smallest warmer in February. The future simulated precipitation is smaller than that of the baseline value in May, July and August, while increasing of precipitation is revealed during pre-monsoon (April) and late monsoon (September and October). This means that the rainy season likely becomes longer and less intensified during the rainy season. During the cool-dry season and hot-dry season, precipitation is substantial increasing over the basin. For the annual cycle of changes in daily temperature and precipitation over the upper Ping River basin, the largest warmer in the mean temperature over the basin is 1.93 °C in December and the smallest is 0.77 °C in February. Increase in nighttime temperature (minimum temperature) is larger than that of daytime temperature (maximum temperature) during the dry season, especially in wintertime (November to February), resulted in decreasing the diurnal temperature range. The annual and seasonal changes in daily temperature and precipitation averaged over the basin. The annual mean rising are 1.43, 1.54 and 1.30 °C for mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature, respectively. The increasing of maximum temperature is larger than that of minimum temperature in all months during the dry season (November to April).

Keywords: climate change, regional climate model, upper Ping River basin, WRF

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Authors: M. T. Bouziane, A. Benkhaled, B. Achour

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In this study, data from 30 catchments in the Chott Melghir basin in the semiarid region of southern East Algeria were analyzed to investigate changes in annual discharge, annual precipitation over the 1965-2005 period. These data were analyzed with the aid of Kendall test trend and regression analysis. The results indicate that the major variations in all catchments discharge in Chott Melghir correspond well to the precipitation. Changes in total annual discharge of Chott Melghir were lower than changes in annual precipitation. Annual precipitation decreased by 66 percent and annual discharge decreased by 4 percent. No significant trend is detected for annual discharge and precipitation at major catchments up to 95% confidence level. The decreasing trend in Chott Melghir discharge is mainly attributed to the decrease of precipitation.

Keywords: trends, climate change, precipitation, discharge, Kendall test, regression analysis, Chott Melghir catchments

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Authors: Shao-Yuan Huang

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We study the shape of the bifurcation curve of positive solutions for the semipositone problem with the Minkowski-curvature operator. The Minkowski-curvature problem plays an important role in certain fundamental issues in differential geometry and in the special theory of relativity. In addition, it is well known that studying the multiplicity of positive solutions is equivalent to studying the shape of the bifurcation curve. By the shape of the bifurcation curve, we can understand the change in the multiplicity of positive solutions with varying parameters. In this paper, our main technique is a time-map method used in Corsato's PhD Thesis. By this method, studying the shape of the bifurcation curve is equivalent to studying the shape of a certain function T with improper integral. Generally speaking, it is difficult to study the shape of T. So, in this paper, we consider two cases that the nonlinearity is convex or concave. Thus we obtain the following results: (i) If f''(u) < 0 for u > 0, then the bifurcation curve is C-shaped. (ii) If f''(u) > 0 for u > 0, then there exists η>β such that the bifurcation curve does not exist for 0 η. Furthermore, we prove that the bifurcation is C-shaped for L > η under a certain condition.

Keywords: bifurcation curve, Minkowski-curvature problem, positive solution, time-map method

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Authors: Hiroki Tsuneda, Takamasa Suzuki, Hideki Yamamoto, Kimito Kawamura, Eiji Tamura, Katharina Wochner, Roberto Plasenzotti

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Flow property of human blood is one of the important factors on the prevention of the circulatory condition such as a high blood pressure, a diabetes mellitus, and a cardiac infarction. However, the measurement of flow property of human blood, especially blood viscosity, is not so easy, because of their coagulation or aggregation behaviors after taking a sample from blood vessel. In the experiment, some kinds of anticoagulant were added into the human blood to avoid its solidification. Anticoagulant used in the blood test has been chosen for each purpose of blood test, for anticoagulant effect on blood is different mechanism for each. So that, there is a problem that the evaluation of measured blood property with different anticoagulant is so difficult. Therefore, it is so important to make clear the difference of anticoagulant effect on the blood property. In the previous work, a compact-size falling needle rheometer (FNR) has been developed in order to measure the flow property of human blood such as a flow curve, an apparent viscosity. It was found that FNR system can apply to a rheometer or a viscometry for various experimental conditions for not only human blood but also mammalians blood. In this study, the measurements of human blood viscosity with different anticoagulant (EDTA and Heparin) were carried out using newly developed FNR system. The effect of anticoagulant on blood viscosity was also tested by using the standard liquid for each. The accuracy on the viscometry was also tested by using the standard liquid for calibrating materials (JS-10, JS-20) and observed data have satisfactory agreement with reference data around 1.0% at 310K. The flow curve of six males and females with different anticoagulant were measured using FNR. In this experiment, EDTA and Heparin were chosen as anticoagulant for blood. Heparin can inhibit the coagulation of human blood by activating the body of anti-thrombin. To examine the effect of human blood viscosity on anticoagulant, flow curve was measured at high shear rate (＞350s-1), and apparent viscosity of each person were determined with different anticoagulant. The apparent viscosity of human blood with heparin was 2%-9% higher than that with EDTA. However, the difference of blood viscosity for two anticoagulants for same blood was different for each. Further discussion, we need the consideration of effect on other physical property, such as cellular component and plasma component.

Keywords: falling-needle rheometer, human blood, viscosity, anticoagulant

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Authors: Amèdédjihundé H. J. Hounnou, Frédéric Dubas, François-Xavier Fifatin, Didier Chamagne, Antoine Vianou

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This paper presents the techno-economic evaluation of run-of-river small-hydropower plants. In this regard, a multi-objective optimization procedure is proposed for the optimal sizing of the hydropower plants, and NSGAII is employed as the optimization algorithm. Annual generated energy and investment cost are considered as the objective functions, and number of generator units (n) and nominal turbine flow rate (Q_T) constitute the decision variables. Site of Yeripao in Benin is considered as the case study. We have categorized the river of this site using its environmental characteristics: gross head, and first quartile, median, third quartile and mean of flow. Effects of each decision variable on the objective functions are analysed. The results gave Pareto Front which represents the trade-offs between annual energy generation and the investment cost of hydropower plants, as well as the recommended optimal solutions. We noted that with the increase of the annual energy generation, the investment cost rises. Thus, maximizing energy generation is contradictory with minimizing the investment cost. Moreover, we have noted that the solutions of Pareto Front are grouped according to the number of generator units (n). The results also illustrate that the costs per kWh are grouped according to the n and rise with the increase of the nominal turbine flow rate. The lowest investment costs per kWh are obtained for n equal to one and are between 0.065 and 0.180 €/kWh. Following the values of n (equal to 1, 2, 3 or 4), the investment cost and investment cost per kWh increase almost linearly with increasing the nominal turbine flowrate while annual generated. Energy increases logarithmically with increasing of the nominal turbine flowrate. This study made for the Yeripao river can be applied to other rivers with their own characteristics.

Keywords: hydropower plant, investment cost, multi-objective optimization, number of generator units

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Authors: Mustafa Kirisci

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Arms embargoes have not been adequately examined in terms of their effects on conflict duration. Prior research on arms embargoes has generally investigated the effect of arms embargoes on arms import/export practices and violations in arms embargoes, but it says little about the effect on conflict duration. This paper attempts to fill this gap and aims to investigate the effect of arms embargoes on conflict duration throughout the world. More precisely, the purpose of the paper is to understand how arms embargoes affect the duration of both internal and interstate conflicts. Given the theoretical framework, the main hypothesis of the paper is arms embargoes will have no reduction effect on conflict duration when arms transfer and region are controlled. This hypothesis is tested by using OLS regression. Results indicate that arms embargoes have no effect on both internal and interstate conflict duration. Another crucial result is that both small and major arms transfers made by the embargoed countries during the internal conflict increase the duration of the conflict, but no effect on interstate conflict duration. The final part concludes and provide explanations on what these results imply for finishing the conflict and bringing the peace.

Keywords: arms embargo, arms transfer, internal conflict, international conflict

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Authors: Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain, Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar

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The construction of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves is one of the most common and useful tools in order to design hydraulic structures and to provide a mathematical relationship between rainfall characteristics. IDF curves, especially those in Peninsular Malaysia, are often built using moving windows of rainfalls. However, these windows do not represent the actual rainfall events since the duration of rainfalls is usually prefixed. Hence, instead of using moving windows, this study aims to find regionalized distributions for IDF curves of extreme rainfalls based on storm events. Homogeneity test is performed on annual maximum of storm intensities to identify homogeneous regions of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The L-moment method is then used to regionalized Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution of these annual maximums and subsequently. IDF curves are constructed using the regional distributions. The differences between the IDF curves obtained and IDF curves found using at-site GEV distributions are observed through the computation of the coefficient of variation of root mean square error, mean percentage difference and the coefficient of determination. The small differences implied that the construction of IDF curves could be simplified by finding a general probability distribution of each region. This will also help in constructing IDF curves for sites with no rainfall station.

Keywords: IDF curves, L-moments, regionalization, storm events

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Authors: Uzoma Emmanuel Igboji

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The study investigates the effects of cash flow position on corporate performance in the manufacturing sector of Nigeria, using multiple regression techniques. The study involved a survey of five (5) manufacturing companies quoted on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. The data were obtained from the annual reports of the selected companies under study. The result shows that operating and financing cash flow have a significant positive relationship with corporate performance, while investing cash flow position have a significant negative relationship. The researcher recommended that the regulatory authorities should encourage external auditors of these quoted companies to use cash flow ratios in evaluating the performance of a company before expressing an independent opinion on the financial statement. The will give detailed financial information to existing and potential investors to make informed economic decisions.

Keywords: cash flow, financing, performance, operating

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Authors: Kamal Kumar Tanti, Nayan Moni Saikia, Markynti Swer

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This study aims to investigate and analyse the trends and variability of rainfall in Shillong and its nearby areas, located in Meghalaya hills of North-East India; which is geographically a neighbouring area to the wettest places of the Earth, i.e., Cherrapunji and Mawsynram. The analysis of variability and trends to annual, seasonal, monthly and daily rainfall was carried out, using the data collected from the IMD station at Shillong; thereby attempting to highlight whether rainfall in Shillong area has been increasing or decreasing over the years. Rainfall variability coefficient is utilized to compare the current rainfall trend of the area with its past rainfall trends. The present study also aims to analyse the frequency of occurrence of extreme rainfall events over the region. These studies will help us to establish a correlation between the current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study area.

Keywords: trends and variability of rainfall, annual, seasonal, monthly and daily rainfall, rainfall variability coefficient, extreme rainfall events, climate change, Shillong, Cherrapunji, Mawsynram

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Authors: Aklilu Getahun Sulito

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Land Use and Land Cover change dynamics is a result of complex interactions betweenseveral bio- physical and socio-economic conditions. The impacts of the landcoverchange on stream flow and sediment yield were analyzed statistically usingthehydrological model, SWAT. Genale Dawa Dam III watershed is highly af ectedbydeforestation, over grazing, and agricultural land expansion. This study was aimedusingSWAT model for the assessment of impacts of land use land cover change on sediment yield, evaluating stream flow on wet &dry seasons and spatial distribution sediment yieldfrom sub-basins of the Genale Dawa Dam III watershed. Land use land cover maps(LULC) of 2000, 2008 and 2016 were used with same corresponding climate data. During the study period most parts of the forest, dense forest evergreen and grass landchanged to cultivated land. The cultivated land increased by 26.2%but forest land, forest evergreen lands and grass lands decreased by 21.33%, 11.59 % and 7.28 %respectively, following that the mean annual sediment yield of watershed increased by 7.37ton/haover16 years period (2000 – 2016). The analysis of stream flow for wet and dry seasonsshowed that the steam flow increased by 25.5% during wet season, but decreasedby29.6% in the dry season. The result an average annual spatial distribution of sediment yield increased by 7.73ton/ha yr -1 from (2000_2016). The calibration results for bothstream flow and sediment yield showed good agreement between observed and simulateddata with the coef icient of determination of 0.87 and 0.84, Nash-Sutclif e ef iciencyequality to 0.83 and 0.78 and percentage bias of -7.39% and -10.90%respectively. Andthe result for validation for both stream flow and sediment showed good result withCoef icient of determination equality to 0.83 and 0.80, Nash-Sutclif e ef iciency of 0.78and 0.75 and percentage bias of 7.09% and 3.95%. The result obtained fromthe model based on the above method was the mean annual sediment load at Genale DawaDamIIIwatershed increase from 2000 to 2016 for the reason that of the land uses change. Sotouse the Genale Dawa Dam III the land use management practices are neededinthefuture to prevent further increase of sediment yield of the watershed.

Keywords: Genale Dawa Dam III watershed, land use land cover change, SWAT, spatial distribution, sediment yield, stream flow

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Authors: Mekonen G., Sileshi M., Melkamu M.

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Recharge estimation is important for the assessment and management of groundwater resources effectively. This study applied the soil moisture balance and Baseflow separation methods to estimate groundwater recharge in the Fetam Catchment. It is one of the major catchments understudied from the different catchments in the upper Blue Nile River basin. Surface water has been subjected to high seasonal variation; due to this, groundwater is a primary option for drinking water supply to the community. This research has been conducted to estimate groundwater recharge by using fifteen years of River flow data for the Baseflow separation and ten years of daily meteorological data for the daily soil moisture balance recharge estimating method. The recharge rate by the two methods is 170.5 and 244.9mm/year daily soil moisture and baseflow separation method, respectively, and the average recharge is 207.7mm/year. The average value of annual recharge in the catchment is almost equal to the average recharge in the country, which is 200mm/year. So, each method has its own limitations, and taking the average value is preferable rather than taking a single value. Baseflow provides overestimated result compared to the average of the two, and soil moisture balance is the list estimator. The recharge estimation in the area also should be done by other recharge estimation methods.

Keywords: groundwater, recharge, baseflow separation, soil moisture balance, Fetam catchment

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Authors: A. L. Qureshi, A. A. Mahessar, A. Baloch

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Flood wave propagation in river channel flow can be enunciated by nonlinear equations of motion for unsteady flow. However, it is difficult to find analytical solution of these complex non-linear equations. Hence, verification of the numerical model should be carried out against field data and numerical predictions. This paper presents the verification of developed finite element model applying for unsteady flow in the open channels. The results of a proposed model indicate a good matching with both Preissmann scheme and HEC-RAS model for a river reach of 29 km at both sites (15 km from upstream and at downstream end) for discharge hydrographs. It also has an agreeable comparison with the Preissemann scheme for the flow depth (stage) hydrographs. The proposed model has also been applying to forecast daily discharges at 400 km downstream from Sukkur barrage, which demonstrates accurate model predictions with observed daily discharges. Hence, this model may be utilized for predicting and issuing flood warnings about flood hazardous in advance.

Keywords: finite element method, Preissmann scheme, HEC-RAS, flood forecasting, Indus river

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Authors: Shunsuke Miyoshi, Yasuyuki Nogami, Takuya Kusaka, Nariyoshi Yamai

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Elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem (ECDLP) is one of problems on which the security of pairing-based cryptography is based. This paper considers Pollard's rho method to evaluate the security of ECDLP on Barreto-Naehrig (BN) curve that is an efficient pairing-friendly curve. Some techniques are proposed to make the rho method efficient. Especially, the group structure on BN curve, distinguished point method, and Montgomery trick are well-known techniques. This paper applies these techniques and shows its optimization. According to the experimental results for which a large-scale parallel system with MySQL is applied, 94-bit ECDLP was solved about 28 hours by parallelizing 71 computers.

Keywords: Pollard's rho method, BN curve, Montgomery multiplication

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Authors: Fakharuddin Ibrahim, Jamaludin Md. Ali, Ahmad Ramli

Abstract:

In this paper, we will discuss about the data interpolation by using the rational cubic Ball curve. To generate a curve with a better and satisfactory smoothness, the curve segments must be connected with a certain amount of continuity. The continuity that we will consider is of type G¹ continuity. The conditions considered are known as the G¹ Hermite condition. A simple application of the proposed method is to generate an Arabic font satisfying the required continuity.

Keywords: data interpolation, rational ball curve, hermite condition, continuity

Procedia PDF Downloads 392

Authors: Ali M. Subyani

Abstract:

The increase in the greenhouse gas emission has had a severe impact on global climate change and is bound to affect the weather patterns worldwide. This climate change impacts are among the future significant effects on any society. Rainfall levels are drastically increasing with flash floods in some places and long periods of droughts in others, especially in arid regions. These extreme events are causes of interactions concerning environmental, socio-economic and cultural life and their implementation. This paper presents the detailed features of dry and wet spell durations and rainfall intensity series available (1971-2012) on daily basis for the Jeddah area, Western, Saudi Arabia. It also presents significant articles for combating the climate change impacts on this area. Results show trend changes in dry and wet spell durations and rainfall amount on daily, monthly and annual time series. Three rain seasons were proposed in this investigation: high rain, low rain, and dry seasons. It shows that the overall average dry spell durations is about 80 continuous days while the average wet spell durations is 1.39 days with an average rainfall intensity of 8.2 mm/day. Annual and seasonal autorun analyses confirm that the rainy seasons are tending to have more intense rainfall while the seasons are becoming drier. This study would help decision makers in future for water resources management and flood risk analysis.

Keywords: climate change, daily rainfall, dry and wet spill, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Jean-Pierre Lomaliza, Kwang-Seok Moon, Hanhoon Park

Abstract:

It is well-known that Ramer Douglas Peucker (RDP) algorithm greatly depends on the method of choosing starting points. Therefore, this paper focuses on finding such starting points that will optimize the results of RDP algorithm. Specifically, this paper proposes a curve approximation algorithm that finds flat points, called essential points, of an input curve, divides the curve into corner-like sub-curves using the essential points, and applies the RDP algorithm to the sub-curves. The number of essential points play a role on optimizing the approximation results by balancing the degree of shape information loss and the amount of data reduction. Through experiments with curves of various types and complexities of shape, we compared the performance of the proposed algorithm with three other methods, i.e., the RDP algorithm itself and its variants. As a result, the proposed algorithm outperformed the others in term of maintaining the original shapes of the input curve, which is important in various applications like pattern recognition.

Keywords: curve approximation, essential point, RDP algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 503

Authors: M. R. Dahmardeh Ghaleno, M. Nohtani, S. Khaledi

Abstract:

Flood simulation and prediction is one of the most active research areas in surface water management. WetSpa is a distributed, continuous, and physical model with daily or hourly time step that explains precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration processes for both simple and complex contexts. This model uses a modified rational method for runoff calculation. In this model, runoff is routed along the flow path using Diffusion-Wave equation which depends on the slope, velocity, and flow route characteristics. Golestan Dam Basin is located in Golestan province in Iran and it is passing over coordinates 55° 16´ 50" to 56° 4´ 25" E and 37° 19´ 39" to 37° 49´ 28"N. The area of the catchment is about 224 km², and elevations in the catchment range from 414 to 2856 m at the outlet, with average slope of 29.78%. Results of the simulations show a good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin. Drawing upon Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient for calibration periodic model estimated daily hydrographs and maximum flow rate with an accuracy up to 59% and 80.18%, respectively.

Keywords: watershed simulation, WetSpa, stream flow, flood prediction

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Authors: Suzana Ramli, Wardah Tahir

Abstract:

Estimation of surface runoff depth is a vital part in any rainfall-runoff modeling. It leads to stream flow calculation and later predicts flood occurrences. GIS (Geographic Information System) is an advanced and opposite tool used in simulating hydrological model due to its realistic application on topography. The paper discusses on calculation of surface runoff depth for two selected events by using GIS with Curve Number method for Upper Klang River basin. GIS enables maps intersection between soil type and land use that later produces curve number map. The results show good correlation between simulated and observed values with more than 0.7 of R2. Acceptable performance of statistical measurements namely mean error, absolute mean error, RMSE, and bias are also deduced in the paper.

Keywords: surface runoff, geographic information system, curve number method, environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 243

Authors: Y.J. Wang, C. Q. Ru

Abstract:

A key issue of cohesive zone models is how to determine the cohesive zone model parameters based on real material test data. In this paper, uniaxial nominal stress-strain curve (SS curve) is used to determine two key parameters of a cohesive zone model (CZM): The maximum traction and the area under the curve of traction-separation law (TSL). To this end, the true SS curve is obtained based on the nominal SS curve, and the relationship between the nominal SS curve and TSL is derived based on an assumption that the stress for cracking should be the same in both CZM and the real material. In particular, the true SS curve after necking is derived from the nominal SS curve by taking the average of the power law extrapolation and the linear extrapolation, and a damage factor is introduced to offset the true stress reduction caused by the voids generated at the necking zone. The maximum traction of the TSL is equal to the maximum true stress calculated based on the damage factor at the end of hardening. In addition, a simple specimen is modeled by Abaqus/Standard to calculate the critical J-integral, and the fracture energy calculated by the critical J-integral represents the stored strain energy in the necking zone calculated by the true SS curve. Finally, the CZM parameters obtained by the present method are compared to those used in a previous related work for a simulation of the drop-weight tear test.

Keywords: dynamic fracture, cohesive zone model, traction-separation law, stress-strain curve, J-integral

Procedia PDF Downloads 433

Authors: Y. J. Wang, C. Q. Ru

Abstract:

A key issue of cohesive zone models is how to determine the cohesive zone model (CZM) parameters based on real material test data. In this paper, uniaxial nominal stress-strain curve (SS curve) is used to determine two key parameters of a cohesive zone model: the maximum traction and the area under the curve of traction-separation law (TSL). To this end, the true SS curve is obtained based on the nominal SS curve, and the relationship between the nominal SS curve and TSL is derived based on an assumption that the stress for cracking should be the same in both CZM and the real material. In particular, the true SS curve after necking is derived from the nominal SS curve by taking the average of the power law extrapolation and the linear extrapolation, and a damage factor is introduced to offset the true stress reduction caused by the voids generated at the necking zone. The maximum traction of the TSL is equal to the maximum true stress calculated based on the damage factor at the end of hardening. In addition, a simple specimen is simulated by Abaqus/Standard to calculate the critical J-integral, and the fracture energy calculated by the critical J-integral represents the stored strain energy in the necking zone calculated by the true SS curve. Finally, the CZM parameters obtained by the present method are compared to those used in a previous related work for a simulation of the drop-weight tear test.

Keywords: dynamic fracture, cohesive zone model, traction-separation law, stress-strain curve, J-integral

Procedia PDF Downloads 476