Search results for: Trump phenomenon
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2085

Search results for: Trump phenomenon

2085 The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Issue and Ideological Congruence of Trump and Bolsonaro Administrations

Authors: Flavio Contrera, Paulo Cesar Gregorio

Abstract:

Recent political developments and government control actions in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic draw attention to the contrast between the duties of government and the demands of democratic representation. Elected by mobilizing far-right issues, Trump and Bolsonaro moved away from the WHO guidelines but had to accommodate demands on the health and on the social protection system on the one hand and demands from the economic sector on the other. This study used the MARPOR Project method to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the issue and ideological congruence between the electoral and governmental arena in both the Trump and Bolsonaro Administrations. Findings reveal issue congruence between arenas in "National Way of Life: Positive", "Law and Order," and "Technology and Infrastructure" for Donald Trump, and "Welfare State Expansion" for Bolsonaro. Ideological estimation results show that Trump and Bolsonaro positioned to the right in their presidential elections, initially moved to the center-right. However, welfare policies actions at high frequency during the COVID-19 pandemic moved the ideological estimations of both governments to the center-left, despite their denial rhetoric.

Keywords: congruence, COVID-19, Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro

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2084 Populism and the Democratic Crisis: Comparative Study of Four Countries

Authors: Hyein Ko

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In 2017, many signs of populism occurred around the world. This paper suggests that populism is not a sudden phenomenon, but a manifestation of common people’s will. By analyzing previous research, this paper proposes three factors related to populism: Inequality, experience of economic crisis, and rapid cultural change. With these three elements, four cases will be investigated in this article; two countries experienced populism, and the other two countries did not experience it. Comparing four cases by using three elements will give a fruitful foundation for further analysis regarding populism. In sum, aforementioned three elements are highly related to the occurrence of populism. However, there is one hidden factor: dissatisfaction with established politics. Thus, populism is not a temporal phenomenon. It is a red alert for democratic crisis.

Keywords: common people, democratic crisis, populism, Trump phenomenon

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2083 The American Theater: Latinos Performing as American Citizens by Supporting Trump's Ideals

Authors: Mariana Anaya Villafana

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The sudden change of a significant percentage of the Latino community in the United States elections towards a Republican political orientation was reflected during the 2016 presidential election. This moment represented a radical change that is happening inside the Latino community in the United States, the support they have given to Trump's campaign only demonstrates their support for new anti-immigration regulations and conservative values, which are causing a division of ideologies inside the Latino community. One of the main goals of the following research is to understand the whole phenomenon 'Why would people join their own oppressor?' Align themselves with the politics that prevent many of their relatives to come to the United States and made the assimilation process difficult for their parents. It is important to prove that a change in the identity has happened, through the use of power relations and the attachment to the desired object. A group of Hispanics/Latinos have decided to vote for Trump in order to belong to a society that hasn’t been able to fully include them within it, an action that can result on the non-intentional harm of the values and aims of the rest of the Latino/Hispanic community. In order to understand their new political beliefs, it is necessary to use the method of discourse analysis to comprehend those comments and interviews that are published on web sites such as: 'Latinos for Trump' and 'GOP Hispanic Division'. Among the results that the research has shown, the notion of the 'American Dream' can be considered as a determinant object for the construction of a new identity that is rooted in hard work and legality. One that is proud of the Latino heritage but still wants to maintain the boundaries between legality and illegality in relation to the immigrants. This discourse results on a contradiction to most of the cases because they mention that their families came to the U.S. as immigrants; the only difference is that they work hard to obtain legal citizenship.

Keywords: populism, identity, Latino Community, migration

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2082 Mood Choices and Modality Patterns in Donald Trump’s Inaugural Presidential Speech

Authors: Mary Titilayo Olowe

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The controversies that trailed the political campaign and eventual choice of Donald Trump as the American president is so great that expectations are high as to what the content of his inaugural speech will portray. Given the fact that language is a dynamic vehicle of expressing intentions, the speech needs to be objectively assessed so as to access its content in the manner intended through the three strands of meaning postulated by the Systemic Functional Grammar (SFG): the ideational, the interpersonal and the textual. The focus of this paper, however, is on the interpersonal meaning which deals with how language exhibits social roles and relationship. This paper, therefore, attempts to analyse President Donald Trump’s inaugural speech to elicit interpersonal meaning in it. The analysis is done from the perspective of mood and modality which are housed in SFG. Results of the mood choice which is basically declarative, reveal an information-centered speech while the high option for the modal verb operator ‘will’ shows president Donald Trump’s ability to establish an equal and reliant relationship with his audience, i.e., the Americans. In conclusion, the appeal of the speech to different levels of Interpersonal meaning is largely responsible for its overall effectiveness. One can, therefore, understand the reason for the massive reaction it generates at the center of global discourse.

Keywords: interpersonal, modality, mood, systemic functional grammar

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2081 Metaphors Investigation between President Xi Jinping of China and Trump of Us on the Corpus-Based Approach

Authors: Jie Zheng, Ruifeng Luo

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The United States is the world’s most developed economy with the strongest military power. China is the fastest growing country with growing comprehensive strength and its economic strength is second only to the US. However, the conflict between them is getting serious in recent years. President’s address is the representative of a nation’s ideology. The paper has built up a small sized corpus of President Xi Jinping and Trump’s speech in Davos to investigate their respective use and types of metaphors and calculate the respective percentage of each type of metaphor. The result shows President Xi Jinping employs more metaphors than Trump. The metaphors of Xi includes “building” metaphor, “plant” metaphor, “journey” metaphor, “ship” metaphor, “traffic” metaphor, “nation is a person” metaphor, “show” metaphor, etc while Trump’s comprises “war” metaphor, “building” metaphor, “journey” metaphor, “traffic” metaphor, “tax” metaphor, “book” metaphor, etc. After investigating metaphor use differences, the paper makes an analysis of the underlying ideology between the two nations. China is willing to strengthen ties with all the countries all over the world and has built a platform of development for them and itself to go to the destination of social well being while the US pays much concern to itself, emphasizing its first leading position and is also willing to help its alliances to development. The paper’s comparison of the ideology difference between the two countries will help them get a better understanding and reduce the conflict to some extent.

Keywords: metaphor; corpus; ideology; conflict

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2080 The Power of Words: A Corpus Analysis of Campaign Speeches of President Donald J. Trump

Authors: Aiza Dalman

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Words are powerful when these are used wisely and strategically. In this study, twelve (12) campaign speeches of President Donald J. Trump were analyzed as to frequently used words and ethos, pathos and logos being employed. The speeches were read thoroughly, analyzed and interpreted. With the use of Word Counter Tool and Text Analyzer software accessible online, it was found out that the word ‘will’ has the highest frequency of 121, followed by Hillary (58), American (38), going (35), plan and Clinton (32), illegal (30), government (28), corruption (26) and criminal (24). When the speeches were analyzed as to ethos, pathos and logos, on the other hand, it revealed that these were all employed in his speeches. The statements under these pointed out against Hillary or in his favor. The unique strategy of President Donald J. Trump as to frequently used words and ethos, pathos and logos in persuading people perhaps lead the way to his victory.

Keywords: campaign speeches, corpus analysis, ethos, logos and pathos, power of words

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2079 Trump’s COVID-19 Discourse: Downgrading the Fundamentals of the Political Fair Play

Authors: Gustavo Naranjo Maroto, Dolores Fernandez Martinez

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Context has always been essential to understand any reaction from every human being, and words, whether written or spoken, are definitely a powerful representative sample of human reaction. This study starts with an accurate breakdown of the context in which the current president of the US, Mr. Donald J. Trump is conveying his discourses in order to be able to judge them from a critical discourse analysis point of view. The present world’s scenario with a pandemic disease in form of Covid-19 that is threatening the world and certainly putting at risk the so called 'Welfare State', the role of the United States as the first superpower on earth nowadays, the very peculiar profile of President Trump not only as a politician but as a persona, and the fact of being on the verge of a very controversial presidential elections are without doubt a great and undeniable opportunity for the implementation of the critical discourse analysis methodology. Hence, this research will primarily analyze in detail some of the most interesting discourses delivered by Trump in different media since the very beginning of the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States of America (February, 2020), sadly very often downplayed by President Trump, until the final result of the upcoming presidential election scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020, where the political discourse has been dramatically downgraded to a very dangerous state, putting in jeopardy the fundamentals of the political fair play in terms of speech. Finally, the study will hopefully conclude with the final outcome of the data analyzed, allowing to picture how significant the context can be concerning linguistics on the one hand, in terms of shaping or altering the message that the issuer thought to convey in the first place, and on the other hand, generously assessing to what extend the recipients of the message are influenced by the message in terms of receptiveness.

Keywords: Covid-19, critical discourse analysis, Donald J. Trump, political discourse

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2078 The Fefe Indices: The Direction of Donal Trump’s Tweets Effect on the Stock Market

Authors: Sergio Andres Rojas, Julian Benavides Franco, Juan Tomas Sayago

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An increasing amount of research demonstrates how market mood affects financial markets, but their primary goal is to demonstrate how Trump's tweets impacted US interest rate volatility. Following that lead, this work evaluates the effect that Trump's tweets had during his presidency on local and international stock markets, considering not just volatility but the direction of the movement. Three indexes for Trump's tweets were created relating his activity with movements in the S&P500 using natural language analysis and machine learning algorithms. The indexes consider Trump's tweet activity and the positive or negative market sentiment they might inspire. The first explores the relationship between tweets generating negative movements in the S&P500; the second explores positive movements, while the third explores the difference between up and down movements. A pseudo-investment strategy using the indexes produced statistically significant above-average abnormal returns. The findings also showed that the pseudo strategy generated a higher return in the local market if applied to intraday data. However, only a negative market sentiment caused this effect on daily data. These results suggest that the market reacted primarily to a negative idea reflected in the negative index. In the international market, it is not possible to identify a pervasive effect. A rolling window regression model was also performed. The result shows that the impact on the local and international markets is heterogeneous, time-changing, and differentiated for the market sentiment. However, the negative sentiment was more prone to have a significant correlation most of the time.

Keywords: market sentiment, Twitter market sentiment, machine learning, natural dialect analysis

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2077 A Functional Analysis of the 2016 United States Presidential Debates through the Application of the Functional Theory of Political Campaign Discourse

Authors: Maryam Vaezi

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In this study, the Functional Theory of Political Campaign Discourse has been applied in order to investigate the 2016 Clinton-Trump presidential debates. All three kinds of utterances (acclaims, attacks, and defenses) were produced by the candidates supporting the usefulness of the Functional Theory of Political Campaign Discourse for the analysis of the presidential debates as a type of political discourse. Attacks comprised 45% of the candidates’ utterances, followed by acclaims at 33%; defenses were the least common function at 22%. The candidate from the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, acclaimed more, whereas the Republican Party presidential candidate, Donald Trump, attacked more. Simple denial was the most common form of defense used by the candidates. Both candidates directed more of their utterances to policy (past deeds, future plans, and general goals) than character (personal qualities, leadership abilities, and ideals). Analyzing debates in terms of the functions performed by the candidates to increase their desirability and chance of winning the election, can lead to a better understanding of these significant political events as well as other forms of political discourse.

Keywords: acclaim, attack, defend, character, Democratic Party, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, policy, presidential debates, Republican Party

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2076 Challenges and Opportunities for University Management Brought by 2016 Presidential Campaign Immigration Policies and Politics within the United States

Authors: Autumn Tooms Cypres

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Throughout the 2016 presidential campaign, Republican nominee Donald Trump, capitalizing on his reputation for blunt and brash comments, created a political brand based on unedited statements and sweeping promises. While he vowed to 'Make America Great Again,' for many, the candidate’s discourse invoked legacies of marginalization and exclusion. As a result, this discussion focuses on Trump’s anti-immigration discourse (one of the primary foci of his campaign platform) and its influence across educational settings. The purpose of this effort is to demonstrate the power of political discourses relative to educational settings and to discuss the resulting everyday leadership challenges and opportunities. Discourse analysis frameworks are used to unpack the socio-political implications of the presidential campaign. In particular, they examine a serious of emails that a university administrator received post-election. The discussion concludes that leaders in education have a critical role to maintaining democratic institutions and ensuring inclusivity and belonging for all educational stakeholders.

Keywords: educational managment, politics, immigration, discourse

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2075 A Study of Inter-Media Discourse Construction on Sino-US Trade Friction Based on Network Agenda Setting Theory

Authors: Wanying Xie

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Under the background of the increasing Sino-US trade friction, the two nations pay more attention to the medias’ words. This paper mainly studies the causality, effectiveness, and influence of discourse construction between traditional media and social media. Based on the Network Agenda Setting theory, a kind of associative memory pattern in Psychology, who focuses on how media affect audiences’ cognition of issues and attributes, as well as the significance of the relation between people and matters. The date of the sample chosen in this paper ranges from March 23, 2018, to April 30, 2019. A total of 395 Tweets of Donald Trump are obtained, and 731 related reports are collected from the mainstream American newspapers including New York Times, the Washington Post and the Washington Street, by using Factiva and other databases. The sample data are processed by MAXQDA while the media discourses are analyzed by SPSS and Cite Space, with an aim to study: 1) whether the inter-media discourse construction exists; 2) which media (traditional media V.S. social media) is dominant; 3) the causality between two media. The results show: 1) the discourse construction between three American mainstream newspapers and Donald Trump's Twitter is proved in some periods; 2) the dominant position is extremely depended on the events; 3) the causality between two media is decided by many reasons. New media technology shortens the time of agenda-setting effect to one day or less. By comparing the specific relation between the three major American newspapers and Donald Trump’s Twitter, whose popularity and influence could be reflected. Hopefully, this paper could enable readers to have a more comprehensive understanding of the international media language and political environment.

Keywords: discourse construction, media language, network agenda-setting theory, sino-us trade friction

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2074 Meeting India's Energy Demand: U.S.-India Energy Cooperation under Trump

Authors: Merieleen Engtipi

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India's total share of global population is nearly 18%; however, its per capita energy consumption is only one-third of global average. The demand and supply of electricity are uneven in the country; around 240 million of the population have no access to electricity. However, with India's trajectory for modernisation and economic growth, the demand for energy is only expected to increase. India is at a crossroad, on the one hand facing the increasing demand for energy and on the other hand meeting the Paris climate policy commitments, and further the struggle to provide efficient energy. This paper analyses the policies to meet India’s need for energy, as the per capita energy consumption is likely to be double in 6-7 years period. Simultaneously, India's Paris commitment requires curbing of carbon emission from fossil fuels. There is an increasing need for renewables to be cheaply and efficiently available in the market and for clean technology to extract fossil fuels to meet climate policy goals. Fossil fuels are the most significant generator of energy in India; with the Paris agreement, the demand for clean energy technology is increasing. Finally, the U.S. decided to withdraw from the Paris Agreement; however, the two countries plan to continue engaging bilaterally on energy issues. The U.S. energy cooperation under Trump administration is significantly vital for greater energy security, transfer of technology and efficiency in energy supply and demand.

Keywords: energy demand, energy cooperation, fossil fuels, technology transfer

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2073 Discourse Analysis: Where Cognition Meets Communication

Authors: Iryna Biskub

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The interdisciplinary approach to modern linguistic studies is exemplified by the merge of various research methods, which sometimes causes complications related to the verification of the research results. This methodological confusion can be resolved by means of creating new techniques of linguistic analysis combining several scientific paradigms. Modern linguistics has developed really productive and efficient methods for the investigation of cognitive and communicative phenomena of which language is the central issue. In the field of discourse studies, one of the best examples of research methods is the method of Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA). CDA can be viewed both as a method of investigation, as well as a critical multidisciplinary perspective. In CDA the position of the scholar is crucial from the point of view exemplifying his or her social and political convictions. The generally accepted approach to obtaining scientifically reliable results is to use a special well-defined scientific method for researching special types of language phenomena: cognitive methods applied to the exploration of cognitive aspects of language, whereas communicative methods are thought to be relevant only for the investigation of communicative nature of language. In the recent decades discourse as a sociocultural phenomenon has been the focus of careful linguistic research. The very concept of discourse represents an integral unity of cognitive and communicative aspects of human verbal activity. Since a human being is never able to discriminate between cognitive and communicative planes of discourse communication, it doesn’t make much sense to apply cognitive and communicative methods of research taken in isolation. It is possible to modify the classical CDA procedure by means of mapping human cognitive procedures onto the strategic communicative planning of discourse communication. The analysis of the electronic petition 'Block Donald J Trump from UK entry. The signatories believe Donald J Trump should be banned from UK entry' (584, 459 signatures) and the parliamentary debates on it has demonstrated the ability to map cognitive and communicative levels in the following way: the strategy of discourse modeling (communicative level) overlaps with the extraction of semantic macrostructures (cognitive level); the strategy of discourse management overlaps with the analysis of local meanings in discourse communication; the strategy of cognitive monitoring of the discourse overlaps with the formation of attitudes and ideologies at the cognitive level. Thus, the experimental data have shown that it is possible to develop a new complex methodology of discourse analysis, where cognition would meet communication, both metaphorically and literally. The same approach may appear to be productive for the creation of computational models of human-computer interaction, where the automatic generation of a particular type of a discourse could be based on the rules of strategic planning involving cognitive models of CDA.

Keywords: cognition, communication, discourse, strategy

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2072 Terrorism: Definition, History and Different Approaches in the Analysis of Terrorism Phenomenon

Authors: Shabnam Dadparvar, Laijin Shen, Farzad Ravanbod

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Nowadays, the political phenomenon of terrorism is considered as an effective factor on political, social, and economic changes. It has replaced the recognized political phenomena such as revolutions, wars (total war among two or more political units with distinct identities in the form of national states), coups d’état, insurgencies and etc. and has challenged political life in all its levels (sub national, national, and international political groups). In this paper by using descriptive-analytical method, the authors try to explain the spread of this political phenomenon across the world, its definition and types, also analyze different approaches to understand it. The authors believe that the Logical-Rational approach is the best way to explain and understand this phenomenon.

Keywords: logical approach, psychological- social approach, religious approach, terrorism

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2071 A Theoretical Overview of Thermoluminescence

Authors: Sadhana Agrawal, Tarkeshwari Verma, Shmbhavi Katyayan

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The magnificently accentuating phenomenon of luminescence has gathered a lot of attentions from last few decades. Probably defined as the one involving emission of light from certain kinds of substances on absorbing various energies in the form of external stimulus, the phenomenon claims a versatile pertinence. First observed and reported in an extract of Ligrium Nephriticum by Monards, the phenomenon involves turning of crystal clear water into colorful fluid when comes in contact with the special wood. In words of Sir G.G. Stokes, the phenomenon actually involves three different techniques – absorption, excitation and emission. With variance in external stimulus, the corresponding luminescence phenomenon is obtained. Here, this paper gives a concise discussion of thermoluminescence which is one of the types of luminescence obtained when the external stimulus is given in form of heat energy. A deep insight of thermoluminescence put forward a qualitative analysis of various parameters such as glow curves peaks, trap depth, frequency factors and order of kinetics.

Keywords: frequency factor, glow curve peaks, thermoluminescence, trap depth

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2070 A Fact-Finding Analysis on the Expulsions Made under Title 42 in Us

Authors: Avi Shrivastava

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Title 42, an emergency health decree, has forced the federal authorities to turn away asylum seekers and all other border crossers since last year. When Title 42 was first deployed in immigration detention centers, where many migrants are held when they arrive at the U.S.-Mexico border, the Trump administration embraced it as a strategy. Expulsions Policy and New Border Challenges will be examined in regard to Title 42 concerns. Humanitarian measures for refugees arriving at the US-Mexico border are the focus of this article. To a large extent, this article addresses the implications of the United States' use of Title 42 in expelling refugees and the possible ramifications of doing away with it. A secondary data collecting strategy was used to gather the information for this study, allowing researchers to examine a large number of previously collected data sets. Information about Title 42 may be found in a variety of places, such as scholarly publications, newspapers, books, and the internet. The inquiry employed qualitative and explanatory research approaches. The claim that 1.7 million individuals were forced to leave the country as a result of it was withdrawn. Since CBP and ICE were limited in their ability to process deportees, it employed a very random patchwork technique in selecting the expelled individuals. As a consequence, repeat offenders, particularly those who were single, got a reduced punishment. The government will be compelled to focus on long-overdue but vital border enhancements if expulsions are halted. Title 42 provisions may help expedite the processing of asylum and other types of humanitarian relief. The government is prepared for an increase in arrivals, but ending the program would lead to a return to arrival levels seen during the Title 42 period.

Keywords: migrants, refugees, title 42, medical, trump administration

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2069 Patterns of TV Simultaneous Interpreting of Emotive Overtones in Trump’s Victory Speech from English into Arabic

Authors: Hanan Al-Jabri

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Simultaneous interpreting is deemed to be the most challenging mode of interpreting by many scholars. The special constraints involved in this task including time constraints, different linguistic systems, and stress pose a great challenge to most interpreters. These constraints are likely to maximise when the interpreting task is done live on TV. The TV interpreter is exposed to a wide variety of audiences with different backgrounds and needs and is mostly asked to interpret high profile tasks which raise his/her levels of stress, which further complicate the task. Under these constraints, which require fast and efficient performance, TV interpreters of four TV channels were asked to render Trump's victory speech into Arabic. However, they had also to deal with the burden of rendering English emotive overtones employed by the speaker into a whole different linguistic system. The current study aims at investigating the way TV interpreters, who worked in the simultaneous mode, handled this task; it aims at exploring and evaluating the TV interpreters’ linguistic choices and whether the original emotive effect was maintained, upgraded, downgraded or abandoned in their renditions. It also aims at exploring the possible difficulties and challenges that emerged during this process and might have influenced the interpreters’ linguistic choices. To achieve its aims, the study analysed Trump’s victory speech delivered on November 6, 2016, along with four Arabic simultaneous interpretations produced by four TV channels: Al-Jazeera, RT, CBC News, and France 24. The analysis of the study relied on two frameworks: a macro and a micro framework. The former presents an overview of the wider context of the English speech as well as an overview of the speaker and his political background to help understand the linguistic choices he made in the speech, and the latter framework investigates the linguistic tools which were employed by the speaker to stir people’s emotions. These tools were investigated based on Shamaa’s (1978) classification of emotive meaning according to their linguistic level: phonological, morphological, syntactic, and semantic and lexical levels. Moreover, this level investigates the patterns of rendition which were detected in the Arabic deliveries. The results of the study identified different rendition patterns in the Arabic deliveries, including parallel rendition, approximation, condensation, elaboration, transformation, expansion, generalisation, explicitation, paraphrase, and omission. The emerging patterns, as suggested by the analysis, were influenced by factors such as speedy and continuous delivery of some stretches, and highly-dense segments among other factors. The study aims to contribute to a better understanding of TV simultaneous interpreting between English and Arabic, as well as the practices of TV interpreters when rendering emotiveness especially that little is known about interpreting practices in the field of TV, particularly between Arabic and English.

Keywords: emotive overtones, interpreting strategies, political speeches, TV interpreting

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2068 Transferring of Digital DIY Potentialities through a Co-Design Tool

Authors: Marita Canina, Carmen Bruno

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Digital Do It Yourself (DIY) is a contemporary socio-technological phenomenon, enabled by technological tools. The nature and potential long-term effects of this phenomenon have been widely studied within the framework of the EU funded project ‘Digital Do It Yourself’, in which the authors have created and experimented a specific Digital Do It Yourself (DiDIY) co-design process. The phenomenon was first studied through a literature research to understand its multiple dimensions and complexity. Therefore, co-design workshops were used to investigate the phenomenon by involving people to achieve a complete understanding of the DiDIY practices and its enabling factors. These analyses allowed the definition of the DiDIY fundamental factors that were then translated into a design tool. The objective of the tool is to shape design concepts by transferring these factors into different environments to achieve innovation. The aim of this paper is to present the ‘DiDIY Factor Stimuli’ tool, describing the research path and the findings behind it.

Keywords: co-design process, digital DIY, innovation, toolkit

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2067 Developing Index of Democratic Institutions' Vulnerability

Authors: Kamil Jonski

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Last year vividly demonstrated, that populism and political instability can endanger democratic institutions in countries regarded as democratic transition champions (Poland) or cornerstones of liberal order (UK, US). So called ‘illiberal democracy’ is winning hearts and minds of voters, keen to believe that rule of strongman is a viable alternative to perceived decay of western values and institutions. These developments pose a serious threat to the democratic institutions (including rule of law), proven critical for both personal freedom and economic development. Although scholars proposed some structural explanations of the illiberal wave (notably focusing on inequality, stagnant incomes and drawbacks of globalization), they seem to have little predictive value. Indeed, events like Trump’s victory, Brexit or Polish shift towards populist nationalism always came as a surprise. Intriguingly, in the case of US election, simple rules like ‘Bread and Peace model’ gauged prospects of Trump’s victory better than pundits and pollsters. This paper attempts to compile set of indicators, in order to gauge various democracies’ vulnerability to populism, instability and pursuance of ‘illiberal’ projects. Among them, it identifies the gap between consensus assessment of institutional performance (as measured by WGI indicators) and citizens’ subjective assessment (survey based confidence in institutions). Plotting these variables against each other, reveals three clusters of countries – ‘predictable’ (good institutions and high confidence, poor institutions and low confidence), ‘blind’ (poor institutions, high confidence e.g. Uzbekistan or Azerbaijan) and ‘disillusioned’ (good institutions, low confidence e.g. Spain, Chile, Poland and US). It seems that this clustering – carried out separately for various institutions (like legislature, executive and courts) and blended with economic indicators like inequality and living standards (using PCA) – offers reasonably good watchlist of countries, that should ‘expect the unexpected’.

Keywords: illiberal democracy, populism, political instability, political risk measurement

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2066 Make Populism Great Again: Identity Crisis in Western World with a Narrative Analysis of Donald Trump's Presidential Campaign Announcement Speech

Authors: Soumi Banerjee

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In this research paper we will go deep into understanding Benedict Anderson’s definition of the nation as an imagined community and we will analyze why and how national identities were created through long and complex processes, and how there can exist strong emotional bonds between people within an imagined community, given the fact that these people have never known each other personally, but will still feel some form of imagined unity. Such identity construction on the part of an individual or within societies are always in some sense in a state of flux as imagined communities are ever changing, which provides us with the ontological foundation for reaching on this paper. This sort of identity crisis among individuals living in the Western world, who are in search for psychological comfort and security, illustrates a possible need for spatially dislocated, ontologically insecure and vulnerable individuals to have a secure identity. To create such an identity there has to be something to build upon, which could be achieved through what may be termed as ‘homesteading’. This could in short, and in my interpretation of Kinnvall and Nesbitt’s concept, be described as a search for security that involves a search for ‘home’, where home acts as a secure place, which one can build an identity around. The next half of the paper will then look into how populism and identity have played an increasingly important role in the political elections in the so-called western democracies of the world, using the U.S. as an example. Notions of ‘us and them’, the people and the elites will be looked into and analyzed through a social constructivist theoretical lens. Here we will analyze how such narratives about identity and the nation state affects people, their personality development and identity in different ways by studying the U.S. President Donald Trump’s speeches and analyze if and how he used different identity creating narratives for gaining political and popular support. The reason to choose narrative analysis as a method in this research paper is to use the narratives as a device to understand how the perceived notions of 'us and them' can initiate huge identity crisis with a community or a nation-state. This is a relevant subject as results and developments such as rising populist rightwing movements are being felt in a number of European states, with the so-called Brexit vote in the U.K. and the election of Donald Trump as president are two of the prime examples. This paper will then attempt to argue that these mechanisms are strengthened and gaining significance in situations when humans in an economic, social or ontologically vulnerable position, imagined or otherwise, in a general and broad meaning perceive themselves to be under pressure, and a sense of insecurity is rising. These insecurities and sense of being under threat have been on the rise in many of the Western states that are otherwise usually perceived to be some of the safest, democratically stable and prosperous states in the world, which makes it of interest to study what has changed, and help provide some part of the explanation as to how creating a ‘them’ in the discourse of national identity can cause massive security crisis.

Keywords: identity crisis, migration, ontological security(in), nation-states

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2065 The Phenomenon of Suicide in the Social Consciousness: Recommendations for the Educational Strategy of the Society and Prevention of Suicide

Authors: Aldona Anna Osajda

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Suicide is a phenomenon that worries both the public and scientists in various fields. In society, suicide is a taboo subject, and in addition, there are many myths and stereotypes that are detrimental to the proper understanding and appropriate response of a person at risk of suicide. It is necessary to educate society and the suicide prevention system for various age groups. The research covers the level of knowledge and views of Polish society, including teachers and youth, regarding suicides. The main research problem is to establish the level of awareness of Polish society about the phenomenon of suicides. The study will be based on the diagnostic survey method, using the survey technique. Information about the research will be disseminated electronically on the Internet via social messaging. The collected data will be analyzed using appropriate statistics. On the basis of the obtained results, answers will be given to research questions, which will become the basis for designing an appropriate educational strategy for the society in the field of suicide and developing recommendations and recommendations for teachers to conduct classes in the field of suicide prevention for children and adolescents.

Keywords: phenomenon of suicides, suicide, suicide prevention, suicidology

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2064 The Solution of Nonlinear Partial Differential Equation for The Phenomenon of Instability in Homogeneous Porous Media by Homotopy Analysis Method

Authors: Kajal K. Patel, M. N. Mehta, T. R. Singh

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When water is injected in oil formatted area in secondary oil recovery process the instability occurs near common interface due to viscosity difference of injected water and native oil. The governing equation gives rise to the non-linear partial differential equation and its solution has been obtained by Homotopy analysis method with appropriate guess value of the solution together with some conditions and standard relations. The solution gives the average cross-sectional area occupied by the schematic fingers during the occurs of instability phenomenon. The numerical and graphical presentation has developed by using Maple software.

Keywords: capillary pressure, homotopy analysis method, instability phenomenon, viscosity

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2063 Binocular Heterogeneity in Saccadic Suppression

Authors: Evgeny Kozubenko, Dmitry Shaposhnikov, Mikhail Petrushan

Abstract:

This work is focused on the study of the binocular characteristics of the phenomenon of perisaccadic suppression in humans when perceiving visual objects. This phenomenon manifests in a decrease in the subject's ability to perceive visual information during saccades, which play an important role in purpose-driven behavior and visual perception. It was shown that the impairment of perception of visual information in the post-saccadic time window is stronger (p < 0.05) in the ipsilateral eye (the eye towards which the saccade occurs). In addition, the observed heterogeneity of post-saccadic suppression in the contralateral and ipsilateral eyes may relate to depth perception. Taking the studied phenomenon into account is important when developing ergonomic control panels in modern operator systems.

Keywords: eye movement, natural vision, saccadic suppression, visual perception

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2062 The Strengths and Limitations of the Statistical Modeling of Complex Social Phenomenon: Focusing on SEM, Path Analysis, or Multiple Regression Models

Authors: Jihye Jeon

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the conceptual framework of three statistical methods, multiple regression, path analysis, and structural equation models. When establishing research model of the statistical modeling of complex social phenomenon, it is important to know the strengths and limitations of three statistical models. This study explored the character, strength, and limitation of each modeling and suggested some strategies for accurate explaining or predicting the causal relationships among variables. Especially, on the studying of depression or mental health, the common mistakes of research modeling were discussed.

Keywords: multiple regression, path analysis, structural equation models, statistical modeling, social and psychological phenomenon

Procedia PDF Downloads 598
2061 Wellbore Spiraling Induced through Systematic Micro-Sliding

Authors: Christopher Viens, Bosko Gajic, Steve Krase

Abstract:

Stick-Slip is a term that is often overused and commonly diagnosed from surface drilling parameters of torque and differential pressure, but the actual magnitude of the condition is rarely captured at the BHA level as the necessary measurements are seldom deployed. Deployment of an accurate stick-slip measurement downhole has led to an interesting discovery that goes against long held traditional drilling lore. A divide has been identified between stick-slip as independent bit and BHA conditions. This phenomenon in horizontal laterals is common, but few M/LWD systems have been able to capture it. Utilizing measurements of downhole RPM bore pressure, high-speed magnetometer data, bending moment, and continuous inclination, the wellbore spiraling phenomenon is able to be captured, quantified, and intimately tied back to systematic effects of BHA stalling and micro-sliding. An operator in the Permian Basin has identified that this phenomenon is contributing to increased tortuosity and drag. Utilizing downhole torque measurements the root causes of the stick-slip and spiraling phenomenon were identified and able to engineered out of the system.

Keywords: bending moment, downhole dynamics measurements, micro sliding, wellbore spiraling

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2060 Simulating the Hot Hand Phenomenon in Basketball with Bayesian Hidden Markov Models

Authors: Gabriel Calvo, Carmen Armero, Luigi Spezia

Abstract:

A basketball player is said to have a hot hand if his/her performance is better than expected in different periods of time. A way to deal with this phenomenon is to make use of latent variables, which can indicate whether the player is ‘on fire’ or not. This work aims to model the hot hand phenomenon through a Bayesian hidden Markov model (HMM) with two states (cold and hot) and two different probability of success depending on the corresponding hidden state. This task is illustrated through a comprehensive simulation study. The simulated data sets emulate the field goal attempts in an NBA season from different profile players. This model can be a powerful tool to assess the ‘streakiness’ of each player, and it provides information about the general performance of the players during the match. Finally, the Bayesian HMM allows computing the posterior probability of any type of streak.

Keywords: Bernoulli trials, field goals, latent variables, posterior distribution

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2059 Diagnose of the Future of Family Businesses Based on the Study of Spanish Family Businesses Founders

Authors: Fernando Doral

Abstract:

Family businesses are a key phenomenon within the business landscape. Nevertheless, it involves two terms (“family” and “business”) which are nowadays rapidly evolving. Consequently, it isn't easy to diagnose if a family business will be a growing or decreasing phenomenon, which is the objective of this study. For that purpose, a sample of 50 Spanish-established companies from various sectors was taken. Different factors were identified for each enterprise, related to the profile of the founders, such as age, the number of sons and daughters, or support received from the family at the moment to start it up. That information was taken as an input for a clustering method to identify groups, which could help define the founders' profiles. That characterization was carried as a base to identify three factors whose evolution should be analyzed: family structures, business landscape and entrepreneurs' motivations. The analysis of the evolution of these three factors seems to indicate a negative tendency of family businesses. Therefore the consequent diagnosis of this study is to consider family businesses as a declining phenomenon.

Keywords: business diagnose, business trends, family business, family business founders

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2058 Populism in the Age of Twitter: How Social Media Contextualized New Insights on an Old Phenomenon

Authors: Djehich Mohamed Yousri

Abstract:

With the advent of social media, political communication scholars have systematically reviewed theories and empirical findings that revolve around media use and democracy. It is interesting that around the same time period, there has been a trend towards revitalization of political populism in different latitudes around the world. This wide-ranging populist movement has expanded regardless of whether these political systems are established democracies, emerging democracies, or societies mired in endangered political contexts. This article serves as an introductory piece to a special issue on populism. First, it highlights the ways in which "populism", as an ancient phenomenon, has transmigrated into the political sphere in the age of social media. Second, the article seeks to better define the populist context and how it has evolved in today's hybrid media society. Finally, this introduction also lays the groundwork for six data-driven theoretical core papers that cover many of the important issues revolving around the phenomenon of populism today.

Keywords: democracy, facebook, populism, social media, twitter

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2057 The Strategy of the International Organization for Migration in Dealing with the Phenomenon of Migration

Authors: Djehich Mohamed Yousri

Abstract:

Nowadays, migration has become a phenomenon that attracts the attention of researchers, countries, agencies, and national and international bodies. Wars and climate change, demographics, poverty, natural disasters, and epidemics are all threats that are contributing daily to forcing more people to migrate. There are those who resort to emigration because of the deteriorating political conditions in their country, others resort to emigration to improve their financial situation, and others emigrate from their country for fear of some penalties and judgments issued against them. In the field of migration, becoming a member of the United Nations as a "relevant organization" gives the United Nations a clear mandate on migration. Its primary goal is to facilitate the management of international migration in an orderly and humane manner. In order to achieve this goal, the organization adopts an international policy to meet the challenges posed in the field of migration. This paper attempts to study the structure of this international organization and its strategy in dealing with the phenomenon of international migration.

Keywords: international organization for migration, immigrants, immigrant rights, resettlement, migration organization strategy

Procedia PDF Downloads 84
2056 Self-Healing Phenomenon Evaluation in Cementitious Matrix with Different Water/Cement Ratios and Crack Opening Age

Authors: V. G. Cappellesso, D. M. G. da Silva, J. A. Arndt, N. dos Santos Petry, A. B. Masuero, D. C. C. Dal Molin

Abstract:

Concrete elements are subject to cracking, which can be an access point for deleterious agents that can trigger pathological manifestations reducing the service life of these structures. Finding ways to minimize or eliminate the effects of this aggressive agents’ penetration, such as the sealing of these cracks, is a manner of contributing to the durability of these structures. The cementitious self-healing phenomenon can be classified in two different processes. The autogenous self-healing that can be defined as a natural process in which the sealing of this cracks occurs without the stimulation of external agents, meaning, without different materials being added to the mixture, while on the other hand, the autonomous seal-healing phenomenon depends on the insertion of a specific engineered material added to the cement matrix in order to promote its recovery. This work aims to evaluate the autogenous self-healing of concretes produced with different water/cement ratios and exposed to wet/dry cycles, considering two ages of crack openings, 3 days and 28 days. The self-healing phenomenon was evaluated using two techniques: crack healing measurement using ultrasonic waves and image analysis performed with an optical microscope. It is possible to observe that by both methods, it possible to observe the self-healing phenomenon of the cracks. For young ages of crack openings and lower water/cement ratios, the self-healing capacity is higher when compared to advanced ages of crack openings and higher water/cement ratios. Regardless of the crack opening age, these concretes were found to stabilize the self-healing processes after 80 days or 90 days.

Keywords: sealf-healing, autogenous, water/cement ratio, curing cycles, test methods

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