Search results for: Taylor Series Method

Authors: Chui-Hsin Chen, Yu-Ting Chen

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Special concentrically braced frames is one of the seismic load resisting systems, which dissipates seismic energy when bracing members within the frames undergo yielding and buckling while sustaining their axial tension and compression load capacities. Most of the inelastic deformation of a buckling bracing member concentrates in the mid-length region. While experiencing cyclic loading, the region dissipates most of the seismic energy being input into the frame. Such a concentration makes the braces vulnerable to failure modes associated with low-cycle fatigue. In this research, a strategy to improve the cyclic behavior of the conventional steel bracing member is proposed by filling the Hollow Structural Shape (HSS) member with reinforcement. It prevents the local section from concentrating large plastic deformation caused by cyclic loading. The infill helps spread over the plastic hinge region into a wider area hence postpone the initiation of local buckling or even the rupture of the braces. The finite element method is introduced to simulate the complicated bracing member behavior and member-versus-infill interaction under cyclic loading. Fifteen 3-D-element-based models are built by ABAQUS software. The verification of the FEM model is done with unreinforced (UR) HSS bracing members’ cyclic test data and aluminum honeycomb plates’ bending test data. Numerical models include UR and filled HSS bracing members with various compactness ratios based on the specification of AISC-2016 and AISC-1989. The primary variables to be investigated include the relative bending stiffness and the material of the filling reinforcement. The distributions of von Mises stress and equivalent plastic strain (PEEQ) are used as indices to tell the strengths and shortcomings of each model. The result indicates that the change of relative bending stiffness of the infill is much more influential than the change of material in use to increase the energy dissipation capacity. Strengthen the relative bending stiffness of the reinforcement results in additional energy dissipation capacity to the extent of 24% and 46% in model based on AISC-2016 (16-series) and AISC-1989 (89-series), respectively. HSS members with infill show growth in 𝜂Local Buckling, normalized energy cumulated until the happening of local buckling, comparing to UR bracing members. The 89-series infill-reinforced members have more energy dissipation capacity than unreinforced 16-series members by 117% to 166%. The flexural rigidity of infills should be less than 29% and 13% of the member section itself for 16-series and 89-series bracing members accordingly, thereby guaranteeing the spread over of the plastic hinge and the happening of it within the reinforced section. If the parameters are properly configured, the ductility, energy dissipation capacity, and fatigue-life of HSS SCBF bracing members can be improved prominently by the infill-reinforced method.

Keywords: special concentrically braced frames, HSS, cyclic loading, infill reinforcement, finite element analysis, PEEQ

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Authors: Jonas Pedro Fabris, Alberth Almeida Amorim Souza, Maria Emilia Camargo, Suzana Leitão Russo

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With the law Nº. 9279, of May 14, 1996, the Brazilian government regulates rights and obligations relating to industrial property considering the economic development of the country as granting patents, trademark registration, registration of industrial designs and other forms of protection copyright. In this study, we show the application of the methodology of Box and Jenkins in the series of deposits of industrial design at the National Institute of Industrial Property for the period from May 1996 to April 2013. First, a graphical analysis of the data was done by observing the behavior of the data and the autocorrelation function. The best model found, based on the analysis of charts and statistical tests suggested by Box and Jenkins methodology, it was possible to determine the model number for the deposit of industrial design, SARIMA (2,1,0)(2,0,0), with an equal to 9.88% MAPE.

Keywords: ARIMA models, autocorrelation, Box and Jenkins Models, industrial design, MAPE, time series

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Authors: Mohamed E. Khalifa, Adil A. Gobouri

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Potential synthesis of a series of 3-amino-4-arylazothiophene derivatives from reaction of 2-cyano-2-phenylthiocarbamoyl acetamide and the appropriate α-halogenated reagents, followed by coupling with different aryl diazonium salts (Japp-Klingemann reaction), and another series of 5-arylazo-thiazol-2-ylcarbamoyl-thiophene derivatives from base-catalyzed intramolecular condensation of 5-arylazo-2-(N-chloroacetyl)amino-thiazole with selected B-keto compounds (Thorpe-Ziegler reaction) was performed. The biological activity of the two series was studied in vitro. Their versatility for pharmaceutical purposes was reported, where they displayed remarkable activities against selected pathogenic microorganisms; Bacillus subtilize, Staphylococcus aureus (Gram positive bacteria), Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa (Gram negative bacteria) and Aspergillus flavus, Candida albicans (fungi) with various degrees related to their chemical structures.

Keywords: thiophene, 2-aminothiazole, compounds, antioxidant, antitumor, antimicrobial

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Authors: Victoria Siriaki Jorry, I. S. Mbalawata, Hayong Shin

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The main objective in a change detection problem is to develop algorithms for efficient detection of gradual and/or abrupt changes in the parameter distribution of a process or time series data. In this paper, we present a modified cumulative (MCUSUM) algorithm to detect the start and end of a time-varying linear drift in mean value of a time series data based on likelihood ratio test procedure. The design, implementation and performance of the proposed algorithm for a linear drift detection is evaluated and compared to the existing CUSUM algorithm using different performance measures. An approach to accurately approximate the threshold of the MCUSUM is also provided. Performance of the MCUSUM for gradual change-point detection is compared to that of standard cumulative sum (CUSUM) control chart designed for abrupt shift detection using Monte Carlo Simulations. In terms of the expected time for detection, the MCUSUM procedure is found to have a better performance than a standard CUSUM chart for detection of the gradual change in mean. The algorithm is then applied and tested to a randomly generated time series data with a gradual linear trend in mean to demonstrate its usefulness.

Keywords: average run length, CUSUM control chart, gradual change detection, likelihood ratio test

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Authors: Nur Syarafina Binti Othman, Tsubasa Jindo, Makato Yamada, Miho Tsuyama, Hitoshi Nakano

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A novel method to produce a fast high voltage solid states switch using Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) is presented for discharge-pumped gas lasers. The IGBTs are connected in series to achieve a high voltage rating. An avalanche transistor is used as the gate driver. The fast pulse generated by the avalanche transistor quickly charges the large input capacitance of the IGBT, resulting in a switch out of a fast high-voltage pulse. The switching characteristic of fast-high voltage solid state switch has been estimated in the multi-stage series-connected IGBT with the applied voltage of several tens of kV. Electrical circuit diagram and the mythology of fast-high voltage solid state switch as well as experimental results obtained are presented.

Keywords: high voltage, IGBT, solid state switch, bipolar transistor

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Authors: Jinhoa Lee

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The relationships between environmental quality, energy use and economic output have created growing attention over the past decades among researchers and policy makers. Focusing on the empirical aspects of the role of CO2 emissions and energy use in affecting the economic output, this paper is an effort to fulfil the gap in a comprehensive case study at a country level using modern econometric techniques. To achieve the goal, this country-specific study examines the short-run and long-run relationships among energy consumption, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for Oman using time series analysis from the year 1980-2010. To investigate the relationships between the variables, this paper employs the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test for stationary, Johansen maximum likelihood method for co-integration and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for both short- and long-run causality among the research variables for the sample. All the variables in this study show very strong significant effects on GDP in the country for the long term. The long-run equilibrium in the VECM suggests positive long-run causalities from CO2 emissions to GDP. Conversely, negative impacts of energy consumption on GDP are found to be significant in Oman during the period. In the short run, there exist negative unidirectional causalities among GDP, CO2 emissions and energy consumption running from GDP to CO2 emissions and from energy consumption to CO2 emissions. Overall, the results support arguments that there are relationships among environmental quality, energy use and economic output in Oman over of period 1980-2010.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, energy consumption, GDP, Oman, time series analysis

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Authors: Rufus Temidayo Akinnubi, M. O. Adeniyi

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Existing diurnal air temperature models simulate night time air temperature over Nigeria with high biases. An improved parameterization is presented for modeling the diurnal pattern of air temperature (Ta) which is applicable in the calculation of turbulent heat fluxes in Global climate models, based on Nigeria Micrometeorological Experimental site (NIMEX) surface layer observations. Five diurnal Ta models for estimating hourly Ta from daily maximum, daily minimum, and daily mean air temperature were validated using root-mean-square error (RMSE), Mean Error Bias (MBE) and scatter graphs. The original Fourier series model showed better performance for unstable air temperature parameterizations while the stable Ta was strongly overestimated with a large error. The model was improved with the inclusion of the atmospheric cooling rate that accounts for the temperature inversion that occurs during the nocturnal boundary layer condition. The MBE and RMSE estimated by the modified Fourier series model reduced by 4.45 oC and 3.12 oC during the transitional period from dry to wet stable atmospheric conditions. The modified Fourier series model gave good estimation of the diurnal weather patterns of Ta when compared with other existing models for a tropical environment.

Keywords: air temperature, mean bias error, Fourier series analysis, surface energy balance,

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Authors: Vishal Das, Tianyi Mao, Zhicheng Geng, Carmen Flores, Diego Pelloso, Fang Wang

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Accurate sell-in and sell-out forecasting is a ubiquitous problem in the retail industry. It is an important element of any demand planning activity. As a global food and beverage company, Nestlé has hundreds of products in each geographical location that they operate in. Each product has its sell-in and sell-out time series data, which are forecasted on a weekly and monthly scale for demand and financial planning. To address this challenge, Nestlé Chilein collaboration with Amazon Machine Learning Solutions Labhas developed their in-house solution of using machine learning models for forecasting. Similar products are combined together such that there is one model for each product category. In this way, the models learn from a larger set of data, and there are fewer models to maintain. The solution is scalable to all product categories and is developed to be flexible enough to include any new product or eliminate any existing product in a product category based on requirements. We show how we can use the machine learning development environment on Amazon Web Services (AWS) to explore a set of forecasting models and create business intelligence dashboards that can be used with the existing demand planning tools in Nestlé. We explored recent deep learning networks (DNN), which show promising results for a variety of time series forecasting problems. Specifically, we used a DeepAR autoregressive model that can group similar time series together and provide robust predictions. To further enhance the accuracy of the predictions and include domain-specific knowledge, we designed an ensemble approach using DeepAR and XGBoost regression model. As part of the ensemble approach, we interlinked the sell-out and sell-in information to ensure that a future sell-out influences the current sell-in predictions. Our approach outperforms the benchmark statistical models by more than 50%. The machine learning (ML) pipeline implemented in the cloud is currently being extended for other product categories and is getting adopted by other geomarkets.

Keywords: sell-in and sell-out forecasting, demand planning, DeepAR, retail, ensemble machine learning, time-series

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Authors: Himayatullah Khan

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This study estimates supply response function of sugarcane in Pakistan from 1980-81 to 2012-13. The study uses co-integration approach and error correction mechanism. Sugarcane production, area and price series were tested for unit root using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF). The study found that these series were stationary at their first differenced level. Using the Augmented Engle-Granger test and Cointegrating Regression Durbin-Watson (CRDW) test, the study found that “production and price” and “area and price” were co-integrated suggesting that the two sets of time series had long-run or equilibrium relationship. The results of the error correction models for the two sets of series showed that there was disequilibrium in the short run there may be disequilibrium. The Engle-Granger residual may be thought of as the equilibrium error which can be used to tie the short-run behavior of the dependent variable to its long-run value. The Granger-Causality test results showed that log of price granger caused both the long of production and log of area whereas, the log of production and log of area Granger caused each other.

Keywords: co-integration, error correction mechanism, Granger-causality, sugarcane, supply response

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Authors: Jinhoa Lee

Abstract:

The relationships between environmental quality, energy use and economic output have created growing attention over the past decades among researchers and policy makers. Focusing on the empirical aspects of the role of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and energy use in affecting the economic output, this paper is an effort to fulfill the gap in a comprehensive case study at a country level using modern econometric techniques. To achieve the goal, this country-specific study examines the short-run and long-run relationships among energy consumption (using disaggregated energy sources: crude oil, coal, natural gas, and electricity), CO2 emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for Turkey using time series analysis from the year 1980-2010. To investigate the relationships between the variables, this paper employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test for stationarity, Johansen’s maximum likelihood method for cointegration and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for both short- and long-run causality among the research variables for the sample. The long-run equilibrium in the VECM suggests no effects of the CO2 emissions and energy use on the GDP in Turkey. There exists a short-run bidirectional relationship between the electricity and natural gas consumption, and also there is a negative unidirectional causality running from the GDP to electricity use. Overall, the results partly support arguments that there are relationships between energy use and economic output; however, the effects may differ due to the source of energy such as in the case of Turkey for the period of 1980-2010. However, there is no significant relationship between the CO2 emissions and the GDP and between the CO2 emissions and the energy use both in the short term and long term.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, energy consumption, GDP, Turkey, time series analysis

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Authors: R. S. Al Abri, M. H. Albadi, M. H. Al Abri, U. K. Al Rasbi, M. H. Al Hasni, S. M. Al Shidi

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This paper presents an analysis study on the impacts of the changes of the capacitor banks, the loss of a transformer, and the installation of distributed generation on the voltage total harmonic distortion and harmonic resonance. The study is applied in a real system in Oman, Sohar Industrial Port–C Substation Network. Frequency scan method and Fourier series analysis method are used with the help of EDSA software. Moreover, the results are compared with limits specified by national Oman distribution code.

Keywords: power quality, capacitor bank, voltage total harmonics distortion, harmonic resonance, frequency scan

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Authors: Alebachew Halefom, Navsal Kumar, Arunava Poddar

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The purpose of this work is to specify the parameter values, the base flow index (BFI), and to rank the methods that should be used for base flow separation. Three different digital graphical approaches are chosen and used in this study for the purpose of comparison. The daily time series discharge data were collected from the site for a period of 30 years (1986 up to 2015) and were used to evaluate the algorithms. In order to separate the base flow and the surface runoff, daily recorded streamflow (m³/s) data were used to calibrate procedures and get parameter values for the basin. Additionally, the performance of the model was assessed by the use of the standard error (SE), the coefficient of determination (R²), and the flow duration curve (FDC) and baseflow indexes. The findings indicate that, in general, each strategy can be used worldwide to differentiate base flow; however, the Sliding Interval Method (SIM) performs significantly better than the other two techniques in this basin. The average base flow index was calculated to be 0.72 using the local minimum method, 0.76 using the fixed interval method, and 0.78 using the sliding interval method, respectively.

Keywords: baseflow index, digital graphical methods, streamflow, Emba Madre Watershed

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Authors: Himayatullah Khan, Alena Fedorova

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The present paper analyses the income-consumption relationships in Pakistan using annual time series data from 1980-81 to 2010-1. The paper uses the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check the unit root and stationarity in these two time series. The paper finds that the two time series are nonstationary but stationary at their first difference levels. The Augmented Engle-Granger test and the Cointegrating Regression Durbin-Watson test imply that the two time series of consumption and income are cointegrated and that long-run marginal propensity to consume is 0.88 which is given by the estimated (static) equilibrium relation. The paper also used the error correction mechanism to find out to model dynamic relationship. The purpose of the ECM is to indicate the speed of adjustment from the short-run equilibrium to the long-run equilibrium state. The results show that MPC is equal to 0.93 and is highly significant. The coefficient of Engle-Granger residuals is negative but insignificant. Statistically, the equilibrium error term is zero, which suggests that consumption adjusts to changes in GDP in the same period. The short-run changes in GDP have a positive impact on short-run changes in consumption. The paper concludes that we may interpret 0.93 as the short-run MPC. The pair-wise Granger Causality test shows that both GDP and consumption Granger cause each other.

Keywords: cointegrating regression, Augmented Dickey Fuller test, Augmented Engle-Granger test, Granger causality, error correction mechanism

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Authors: Harold P. Villota, Alejandro Osorio B.

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The energy meteorology is an area for study energy complementarity and the use of renewable sources in interconnected systems. Due to diversify the energy matrix in Colombia with wind sources, is necessary to know the data bases about this one. However, the time series given by 260 automatic weather stations have empty, and no apply data, so the purpose is to fill the time series selecting two years to characterize, impute and use like base to complete the data between 2005 and 2020.

Keywords: complementarity, wind speed, renewable, colombia, characteri, characterization, imputation

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Essadik Kerkar, Abdelhamid Hebbouche

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According to the randomness of most of the factors affecting the stability of a gravity dam, probability theory is generally used to TESTING the risk of failure and there is a confusing logical transition from the state of stability failed state, so the stability failure process is considered as a probable event. The control of risk of product failures is of capital importance for the control from a cross analysis of the gravity of the consequences and effects of the probability of occurrence of identified major accidents and can incur a significant risk to the concrete dam structures. Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding the reliability and structural failure of the works, including when calculating stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of the reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case of the use of level II methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type FORM (First Order Reliability Method), SORM (Second Order Reliability Method). By way of comparison, a second level III method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involving an integration of the probability density function of, random variables are extended to the field of security by using of the method of Mont-Carlo simulations. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme the acting on the dam, calculation results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities thus causing a significant decrease in strength, especially in the presence of combinations of unique and extreme loads. Shear forces then induce a shift threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case THE increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: dam, failure, limit state, monte-carlo, reliability, probability, sliding, Taylor

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Authors: Qian Chen, Lin Xu, Ping Ju, Zhuoran Li, Yiping Yu, Yuqing Jin

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The operation of power grid is becoming more and more complex and difficult due to its rapid development towards high voltage, long distance, and large capacity. For instance, many large-scale wind farms have connected to power grid, where their fluctuation and randomness is very likely to affect the stability and safety of the grid. Fortunately, many new-type equipments based on power electronics have been applied to power grid, such as UPFC (Unified Power Flow Controller), TCSC (Thyristor Controlled Series Compensation), STATCOM (Static Synchronous Compensator) and so on, which can help to deal with the problem above. Compared with traditional equipment such as generator, new-type controllable devices, represented by the FACTS (Flexible AC Transmission System), have more accurate control ability and respond faster. But they are too expensive to use widely. Therefore, on the basis of the comparison and analysis of the controlling characteristics between traditional control equipment and new-type controllable equipment in both time and space scale, a coordinated optimizing control method within mutil-time-space frame is proposed in this paper to bring both kinds of advantages into play, which can better both control ability and economical efficiency. Firstly, the coordination of different space sizes of grid is studied focused on the fluctuation caused by large-scale wind farms connected to power grid. With generator, FSC (Fixed Series Compensation) and TCSC, the coordination method on two-layer regional power grid vs. its sub grid is studied in detail. The coordination control model is built, the corresponding scheme is promoted, and the conclusion is verified by simulation. By analysis, interface power flow can be controlled by generator and the specific line power flow between two-layer regions can be adjusted by FSC and TCSC. The smaller the interface power flow adjusted by generator, the bigger the control margin of TCSC, instead, the total consumption of generator is much higher. Secondly, the coordination of different time sizes is studied to further the amount of the total consumption of generator and the control margin of TCSC, where the minimum control cost can be acquired. The coordination method on two-layer ultra short-term correction vs. AGC (Automatic Generation Control) is studied with generator, FSC and TCSC. The optimal control model is founded, genetic algorithm is selected to solve the problem, and the conclusion is verified by simulation. Finally, the aforementioned method within multi-time-space scale is analyzed with practical cases, and simulated on PSASP (Power System Analysis Software Package) platform. The correctness and effectiveness are verified by the simulation result. Moreover, this coordinated optimizing control method can contribute to the decrease of control cost and will provide reference to the following studies in this field.

Keywords: FACTS, multi-space-time frame, optimal control, TCSC

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Authors: M. Kagan Keler, Sibel Daglilar, Isil Kerti, Oguzhan Gunduz

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Electrospinning is a versatile way to occur fibers at nano-scale and polycaprolactone is a biomedical material which has a wide usage in cartilage defects and tissue regeneration. PCL is biocompatible and durable material which can be used in bio-implants. Therefore, electrospinning process was chosen as a fabrication method to get PCL fibers in an effective way because of its significant adjustments. In this research study, electrospinning parameters was evaluated during the producing of polymer tissue scaffolds. Polycaprolactone’s molecular weight was 80.000 Da and was employed as a tissue material in the electrospinning process. PCL was decomposed in dimethylformamid(DMF) and chloroform(CF) with the weight ratio of 1:1. Different compositions (1%, 3%, 5%, 10% and 20 %) of PCL was prepared in the laboratory conditions. All solvents with different percentages of PCL have been taken into the syringe and loaded into the electrospinning system. In electrospinning dozens of trial were applied to get homogeneously uniform scaffold samples. Taylor cone which is crucial point for electrospinning characteristic was occurred and changed in different voltages up to the material compositions’ conductivity. While the PCL percentages were increasing in the electrospinning, structure started to arise with droplets, which was an expressive problem for tissue scaffold. The vertical and horizontal layouts were applied to produce non-woven structures at all.

Keywords: tissue engineering, artificial scaffold, electrospinning, biocomposites

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Authors: C. Han, H. Kim, S. Park

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The purpose of the present study is to analyze the effect of surface roughness on fatigue life of SCM440 steel. Two groups of specimens were made from SCM440 steel with and without surface polished after forging process and resulted in different values of surface roughness. The difference of the surface roughness between two groups was clearly distinguished even to the naked eye. Surface roughness of both groups of the specimens was quantitatively measured by a roughness measuring device, Talysurf series2 (Taylor-Hobson Co., USA). Average roughness (Ra) and maximum roughness depth (Rmax) values were obtained by scanning 45 mm with a speed of 0.25 mm/s. Fatigue tests were conducted using a three-point bending method with a cyclic sinusoidal profile of 5 Hz, stress ratio of R = 0.1 and reference life for fatigue limit of 1 × 106 cycles. Ra and Rmax without surface polished were 10.497 ± 1.721 μm and 87.936 ± 16.210 μm, respectively while those values with surface polished were much smaller (ongoing measurements). Fatigue lives of the surface-polished specimens achieved approximately 1 × 106 cycles under the maximum stress of 900 MPa, which was 10 times longer than those of the surface-untreated specimens with an average roughness of 10.082 μm. The results showed that an increase in surface roughness values led to a decrease in fatigue lives.

Keywords: surface roughness, fatigue test, fatigue life, SCM440 steel

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Authors: Aljoša Šorgo

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Recent scholarship on Phrygian has begun to more closely examine the long-held belief that Greek and Phrygian are two very closely related languages. It is now clear that Graeco-Phrygian can be firmly postulated as a subclade of the Indo-European languages. The present paper will focus on the reconstruction of the phonological and phonetic segments of Proto-Graeco-Phrygian (= PGPh.) by providing relevant correspondence sets and reconstructing the classes of segments. The PGPh. basic vowel system consisted of ten phonemic oral vowels: */a e o ā ē ī ō ū/. The correspondences of the vowels are clear and leave little open to ambiguity. There were four resonants and two semi-vowels in PGPh.: */r l m n i̯ u̯/, which could appear in both a consonantal and a syllabic function, with the distribution between the two still being phonotactically predictable. Of note is the fact that the segments *m and *n seem to have merged when their phonotactic position would see them used in a syllabic function. Whether the segment resulting from this merger was a nasalized vowel (most likely *[ã]) or a syllabic nasal *[N̥] (underspecified for place of articulation) cannot be determined at this stage. There were three fricatives in PGPh.: */s h ç/. *s and *h are easily identifiable. The existence of *ç, which may seem unexpected, is postulated on the basis of the correspondence Gr. ὄς ~ Phr. yos/ιος. It is of note that Bozzone has previously proposed the existence of *ç ( < PIE *h₁i̯-) in an early stage of Greek even without taking into account Phrygian data. Finally, the system of stops in PGPh. distinguished four places of articulation (labial, dental, velar, and labiovelar) and three phonation types. The question of which three phonation types were actually present in PGPh. is one of great importance for the ongoing debate on the realization of the three series in PIE. Since the matter is still very much in dispute, we ought to, at this stage, endeavour to reconstruct the PGPh. system without recourse to the other IE languages. The three series of correspondences are: 1. Gr. T (= tenuis) ~ Phr. T; 2. Gr. D (= media) ~ Phr. T; 3. Gr. TA (= tenuis aspirata) ~ Phr. M. The first series must clearly be reconstructed as composed of voiceless stops. The second and third series are more problematic. With a bottom-up approach, neither the second nor the third series of correspondences are compatible with simple modal voicing, and the reflexes differ greatly in voice onset time. Rather, the defining feature distinguishing the two series was [±spread glottis], with ancillary vibration of the vocal cords. In PGPh. the second series was undergoing further spreading of the glottis. As the two languages split, this process would continue, but be affected by dissimilar changes in VOT, which was ultimately phonemicized in both languages as the defining feature distinguishing between their series of stops.

Keywords: bottom-up reconstruction, Proto-Graeco-Phrygian, spread glottis, syllabic resonant

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Authors: Muriel Canas-Walker

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The 2012 TV series "The Legend of Zhen Huan" is one of the most popular and influential historical dramas on Chinese television and is regularly discussed on Chinese social media such as Weibo. Set in the Qing dynasty, the 76 episodes series features palace intrigues focused on female characters. In the Forbidden City, concubines must survive the cruelty of an extreme polygamy system, constantly competing against each other. The patriarchal oppression of the women sequestred in the harem relies on fierce female competition and does not leave much room for compassion. Using Michel Foucault’s theory of power, feminist theories, and visual anthropology, this paper analyzes the complex relationships between the female characters, from their rise to power to their fall from grace, from alliances to betrayals, from sorority to sororicide. This analysis aims to understand what makes this series particularly popular with young female audiences in China and explain its importance in Chinese media.

Keywords: Chinese TV Drama, feminism, popular culture, Theory of Power

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Authors: Jinwooung Kim, Jae-Hwan Jung, Seong-Jun Kim, Sung-Ah Kim

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Because the building envelope has a significant impact on the operation and maintenance stage of the building, designing the facade considering the performance can improve the performance of the building and lower the maintenance cost of the building. In general, however, optimizing two or more performance factors confronts the limits of time and computational tools. The optimization phase typically repeats infinitely until a series of processes that generate alternatives and analyze the generated alternatives achieve the desired performance. In particular, as complex geometry or precision increases, computational resources and time are prohibitive to find the required performance, so an optimization methodology is needed to deal with this. Instead of directly analyzing all the alternatives in the optimization process, applying experimental techniques (heuristic method) learned through experimentation and experience can reduce resource waste. This study proposes and verifies a method to optimize the double envelope of a building composed of a perforated panel using machine learning to the design geometry and quantitative performance. The proposed method is to achieve the required performance with fewer resources by supplementing the existing method which cannot calculate the complex shape of the perforated panel.

Keywords: building envelope, machine learning, perforated metal, multi-factor optimization, façade

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Authors: Rajaa Filali, Mohamed Bouhdadi

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This paper presents an incremental development of the Dynamic Host Configuration Protocol (DHCP) in Event-B. DHCP is widely used communication protocol, which provides a standard mechanism to obtain configuration parameters. The specification is performed in a stepwise manner and verified through a series of refinements. The Event-B formal method uses the Rodin platform to modeling and verifying some properties of the protocol such as safety, liveness and deadlock freedom. To model and verify the protocol, we use the formal technique Event-B which provides an accessible and rigorous development method. This interaction between modelling and proving reduces the complexity and helps to eliminate misunderstandings, inconsistencies, and specification gaps.

Keywords: DHCP protocol, Event-B, refinement, proof obligation, Rodin

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Authors: Tehreem Fatima, Enjun Xia

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The research investigates the relationship between total oil consumption and transport oil consumption, GDP, oil price, and oil reserve in order to forecast future oil demand in China. Annual time series data is used over the period of 1980 to 2015, and for this purpose, an oil demand function is estimated by applying structural time series model (STSM). The technique also uncovers the Underline energy demand trend (UEDT) for China oil demand and GDP, oil reserve, oil price and UEDT are considering important drivers of China oil demand. The long-run elasticity of total oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.04) respectively while GDP, oil reserve, and price remain (0.17; 0.23; -0.05) respectively. Moreover, the Estimated results of long-run elasticity of transport oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.00) respectively long-run estimates remain (0.28; 37.76;-37.8) for GDP, oil reserve, and price respectively. For both model estimated underline energy demand trend (UEDT) remains nonlinear and stochastic and with an increasing trend of (UEDT) and based on estimated equations, it is predicted that China total oil demand somewhere will be 9.9 thousand barrel per day by 2025 as compare to 9.4 thousand barrel per day in 2015, while transport oil demand predicting value is 9.0 thousand barrel per day by 2020 as compare to 8.8 thousand barrel per day in 2015.

Keywords: china, forecasting, oil, structural time series model (STSM), underline energy demand trend (UEDT)

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Authors: Jafar Khan Kasi, Ajab Khan Kasi, Muzamil Bokhari

Abstract:

Carbon nanotube is one of the most attractive materials for the potential applications of nanotechnology due to its excellent mechanical, thermal, electrical and optical properties. In this paper we report a supercapacitor made of nickel foil electrodes, coated with multiwall carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) thin film using electrophoretic deposition (EPD) method. Chemical vapor deposition method was used for the growth of MWCNTs and ethanol was used as a hydrocarbon source. High graphitic multiwall carbon nanotube was found at 750 C analyzing by Raman spectroscopy. We observed the electrochemical performance of supercapacitor by cyclic voltammetry. The electrodes of supercapacitor fabricated from MWCNTs exhibit considerably small equivalent series resistance (ESR), and a high specific power density. Electrophoretic deposition is an easy method in fabricating MWCNT electrodes for high performance supercapacitor.

Keywords: carbon nanotube, chemical vapor deposition, catalyst, charge, cyclic voltammetry

Procedia PDF Downloads 521

Authors: Funda Kul, İsmail Gür

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Pension scheme providers have to price mortality risk by accurate mortality forecasting method. There are many mortality-forecasting methods constructed and used in literature. The Lee-Carter model is the first model to consider stochastic improvement trends in life expectancy. It is still precisely used. Mortality forecasting is done by mortality index in the Lee-Carter model. It is assumed that mortality index fits ARIMA time series model. In this paper, we propose and use dynamic normal inverse gaussian distribution to modeling mortality indes in the Lee-Carter model. Using population mortality data for Italy, France, and Turkey, the model is forecasting capability is investigated, and a comparative analysis with other models is ensured by some well-known benchmarking criterions.

Keywords: mortality, forecasting, lee-carter model, normal inverse gaussian distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 327

Authors: Eyal Rosen

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This study is aimed to report a possible effect of the presence of dental implants on the development of crown or root fractures in adjacent natural teeth. A series of 26 cases of teeth diagnosed with crown or root fractures following the placement of adjacent dental implants is presented. In addition, a comprehensive systematic review of the literature was performed to detect other studies that evaluated this possible complication. The case series analysis revealed that all crown-fractured teeth were non-endodontically treated teeth (n=18), and all root fractured teeth were endodontically treated teeth (n=8). The time from implant loading to the diagnosis of a fracture in an adjacent tooth was longer than 1 year in 78% of cases. The majority of crown or root fractures occurred in female patients, over 50 years of age, with an average age of 59 in the crown fractures group, and 54 in the root fractures group. Most of the patients received 2 or more implants. Nine (50%) of the teeth with crown fracture were molars, 7 (39%) were mandibular premolars, and 2 (11%) were incisor teeth. The majority of teeth with root fracture were premolar or mandibular molar teeth (6 (75%)). The systematic review of the literature did not reveal additional studies that reported on this possible complication. To the best of the author’s knowledge this case series, although limited in its extent, is the first clinical report of a possible serious complication of implants, associated fractures in adjacent endodontically and non-endodontically treated natural teeth. The most common patient profile found in this series was a woman over 50 years of age, having a fractured premolar tooth, which was diagnosed more than 1 year after reconstruction that was based on multiple adjacent implants. Additional clinical studies are required in order to shed light on this potential serious complication.

Keywords: complications, dental implants, endodontics, fractured teeth

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: H. J. Joshi, Satyajeet Patil, Parth Dandavate, Mihir Kulkarni, Harshita Agrawal

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As the world looks towards a sustainable future, electric vehicles have become increasingly popular. Millions worldwide are looking to switch to Electric cars over the previously favored combustion engine-powered cars. This demand has seen an increase in Electric Vehicle Charging Stations. The big challenge is that the randomness of electrical energy makes it tough for these charging stations to provide an adequate amount of energy over a specific amount of time. Thus, it has become increasingly crucial to model these patterns and forecast the energy needs of power stations. This paper aims to analyze how different machine learning models perform on Electric Vehicle charging time-series data. The data set consists of authentic Electric Vehicle Data from the Netherlands. It has an overview of ten thousand transactions from public stations operated by EVnetNL.

Keywords: forecasting, smart grid, electric vehicle load forecasting, machine learning, time series forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 72

Authors: J. X. Dong, C. J. An, Z. Chen, E. H. Owens, M. C. Boufadel, E. Taylor, K. Lee

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Shorelines are vulnerable to significant environmental impacts from oil spills. Stranded oil can cause potential short- to long-term detrimental effects along beaches that include injuries to the ecosystem, socio-economic and cultural resources. In this study, a three-dimensional (3D) numerical modeling approach is developed to evaluate the fate and transport of spilled oil for hypothetical oiled shoreline cases under various combinations of beach geomorphology and environmental conditions. The developed model estimates the spatial and temporal distribution of spilled oil for the various test conditions, using the finite volume method and considering the physical transport (dispersion and advection), sinks, and sorption processes. The model includes a user-friendly interface for data input on variables such as beach properties, environmental conditions, and physical-chemical properties of spilled oil. An experimental mesoscale tank design was used to test the developed model for dissolved petroleum hydrocarbon within shorelines. The simulated results for effects of different sediment substrates, oil types, and shoreline features for the transport of spilled oil are comparable to those obtained with a commercially available model. Results show that the properties of substrates and the oil removal by shoreline effects have significant impacts on oil transport in the beach area. Sensitivity analysis, through the application of the one-step-at-a-time method (OAT), for the 3D model identified hydraulic conductivity as the most sensitive parameter. The 3D numerical model allows users to examine the behavior of oil on and within beaches, assess potential environmental impacts, and provide technical support for decisions related to shoreline clean-up operations.

Keywords: dissolved petroleum hydrocarbons, environmental multimedia model, finite volume method, sensitivity analysis, total petroleum hydrocarbons

Procedia PDF Downloads 183

Authors: Muhammad Jawwad, Riffat Iqbal

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The Socratic method, also known as the dialectical method and elenctic method, has significant relevance in the contemporary educational system. It can be incorporated into modern-day educational systems theoretically as well as practically. Being interactive and dialogue-based in nature, this teaching approach is followed by critical thinking and innovation. The pragmatic value of the Dialectical Method has been discussed in this article, and the limitations of the Socratic method have also been highlighted. The interactive Method of Socrates can be used in many subjects for students of different grades. The Limitations and delimitations of the Method have also been discussed for its proper implementation. This article has attempted to elaborate and analyze the teaching method of Socrates with all its pre-suppositions and Epistemological character.

Keywords: Socratic method, dialectical method, knowledge, teaching, virtue

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Caroline Picton, Lorna Moxham, Christopher Patterson, Dana Perlman, Ellie Taylor, Renee Brighton

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The purpose of this study was to extrapolate the meaning for people living with a mental illness of their participation in a therapeutic recreation experience. The study’s participants engaged in a five-day adventure camp, known as Recovery Camp, alongside undergraduate health care students. An interpretive phenomenological approach was used as an exploratory method to interview 25 participants (n=25). Van Kaam’s structured analytical framework guided the analysis of the transcribed narratives. The findings provide insight into using therapeutic recreation to enhance personal mental health recovery. Recovery Camp was viewed by participants as having a transformational effect on forming positive social connectedness and improving their self-identity. Participants perceived the Recovery Camp experience as one that gave them a sense of purpose and increased their motivation to undertake further activities. The insights gained of the benefits of therapeutic recreation for people living with a mental illness can be used to promote purposeful community engagement.

Keywords: interpretive phenomenology, lived experience, mental illness, personal mental health recovery

Procedia PDF Downloads 462