Search results for: Kenny Chi Man Chui

Authors: Ainura Tursunalieva, Irene Hudson

Abstract:

Continuous improvement of both the quality and safety of health care is an important goal in Australia and internationally. The intensive care unit (ICU) receives patients with a wide variety of and severity of illnesses. Accurately identifying patients at risk of developing complications or dying is crucial to increasing healthcare efficiency. Thus, it is essential for clinicians and researchers to have a robust framework capable of evaluating the risk profile of a patient. ICU scoring systems provide such a framework. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II are ICU scoring systems frequently used for assessing the severity of acute illness. These scoring systems collect multiple risk factors for each patient including physiological measurements then render the assessment outcomes of individual risk factors into a single numerical value. A higher score is related to a more severe patient condition. Furthermore, the Mortality Probability Model II uses logistic regression based on independent risk factors to predict a patient’s probability of mortality. An important overlooked limitation of SAPS II and MPM II is that they do not, to date, include interaction terms between a patient’s vital signs. This is a prominent oversight as it is likely there is an interplay among vital signs. The co-existence of certain conditions may pose a greater health risk than when these conditions exist independently. One barrier to including such interaction terms in predictive models is the dimensionality issue as it becomes difficult to use variable selection. We propose an innovative scoring system which takes into account a dependence structure among patient’s vital signs, such as systolic and diastolic blood pressures, heart rate, pulse interval, and peripheral oxygen saturation. Copulas will capture the dependence among normally distributed and skewed variables as some of the vital sign distributions are skewed. The estimated dependence parameter will then be incorporated into the traditional scoring systems to adjust the points allocated for the individual vital sign measurements. The same dependence parameter will also be used to create an alternative copula-based model for predicting a patient’s probability of mortality. The new copula-based approach will accommodate not only a patient’s trajectories of vital signs but also the joint dependence probabilities among the vital signs. We hypothesise that this approach will produce more stable assessments and lead to more time efficient and accurate predictions. We will use two data sets: (1) 250 ICU patients admitted once to the Chui Regional Hospital (Kyrgyzstan) and (2) 37 ICU patients’ agitation-sedation profiles collected by the Hunter Medical Research Institute (Australia). Both the traditional scoring approach and our copula-based approach will be evaluated using the Brier score to indicate overall model performance, the concordance (or c) statistic to indicate the discriminative ability (or area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve), and goodness-of-fit statistics for calibration. We will also report discrimination and calibration values and establish visualization of the copulas and high dimensional regions of risk interrelating two or three vital signs in so-called higher dimensional ROCs.

Keywords: copula, intensive unit scoring system, ROC curves, vital sign dependence

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Bridget J. Kenny, Elizabeth Hoban, Jo Williams

Abstract:

Adolescent pregnancy presents a significant public health challenge for Cambodia. Despite declines in the overall fertility rate, the adolescent fertility rate is increasing. Adolescent pregnancy is particularly problematic in the Northeast provinces of Ratanak Kiri and Mondul Kiri where 34 percent of girls aged between 15 and 19 have begun childbearing; this is almost three times Cambodia’s national average of 12 percent. Language, cultural and geographic barriers have restricted qualitative exploration of the sexual and reproductive health (SRH) challenges that face indigenous adolescents in Northeast Cambodia. The current study sought to address this gap by exploring the SRH practices of adolescent mothers from indigenous populations in Ratanak Kiri Province. Twenty-two adolescent mothers, aged between 15 and 19, were recruited from seven indigenous villages in Ratanak Kiri Province and asked to participate in a combined body mapping exercise and semi-structured interview. Participants were given a large piece of paper (59.4 x 84.1 cm) with the outline of a female body and asked to draw the female reproductive organs onto the ‘body map’. Participants were encouraged to explain what they had drawn with the purpose of evoking conversation about their reproductive bodies. Adolescent mothers were then invited to participate in a semi-structured interview to further expand on topics of SRH. The qualitative approach offered an excellent avenue to explore the unique SRH challenges that face indigenous adolescents in rural Cambodia. In particular, the use of visual data collection methods reduced the language and cultural barriers that have previously restricted or prevented qualitative exploration of this population group. Thematic analysis yielded six major themes: (1) understanding of the female reproductive body, (2) contraceptive knowledge, (3) contraceptive use, (4) barriers to contraceptive use, (5) sexual practices, (6) contact with healthcare facilities. Participants could name several modern contraceptive methods and knew where they could access family planning services. However, adolescent mothers explained that they gained this knowledge during antenatal care visits and consequently participants had limited SRH knowledge, including contraceptive awareness, at the time of sexual initiation. Fear of the perceived side effects of modern contraception, including infertility, provided an additional barrier to contraceptive use for indigenous adolescents. Participants did not cite cost or geographic isolation as barriers to accessing SRH services. Child marriage and early sexual initiation were also identified as important factors contributing to the high prevalence of adolescent pregnancy in this population group. The findings support the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports' (MoEYS) recent introduction of SRH education into the primary and secondary school curriculum but suggest indigenous girls in rural Cambodia require additional sources of SRH information. Results indicate adolescent girls’ first point of contact with healthcare facilities occurs after they become pregnant. Promotion of an effective continuum of care by increasing access to healthcare services during the pre-pregnancy period is suggested as a means of providing adolescents girls with an additional avenue to acquire SRH information.

Keywords: adolescent pregnancy, contraceptive use, family planning, sexual and reproductive health

Procedia PDF Downloads 86