Search results for: Andre S. Ribeiro

Authors: André Python

Abstract:

To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, exemplified by the recent deadly attacks in January 2015 in Paris and the ongoing massacres perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In response to this threat, states deploy various counterterrorism measures, the cost of which could be reduced through effective preventive measures. In order to increase the efficiency of preventive measures, policy-makers may benefit from accurate predictive models that are able to capture the complex spatial dynamics of terrorism occurring at a local scale. Despite empirical research carried out at country-level that has confirmed theories explaining the diffusion processes of terrorism across space and time, scholars have failed to assess diffusion’s theories on a local scale. Moreover, since scholars have not made the most of recent statistical modelling approaches, they have been unable to build up predictive models accurate in both space and time. In an effort to address these shortcomings, this research suggests a novel approach to systematically assess the theories of terrorism’s diffusion on a local scale and provide a predictive model of the local spatial dynamics of terrorism worldwide. With a focus on the lethal terrorist events that occurred after 9/11, this paper addresses the following question: why and how does lethal terrorism diffuse in space and time? Based on geolocalised data on worldwide terrorist attacks and covariates gathered from 2002 to 2013, a binomial spatio-temporal point process is used to model the probability of terrorist attacks on a sphere (the world), the surface of which is discretised in the form of Delaunay triangles and refined in areas of specific interest. Within a Bayesian framework, the model is fitted through an integrated nested Laplace approximation - a recent fitting approach that computes fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals. Hence, for each location in the world, the model provides a probability of encountering a lethal terrorist attack and measures of volatility, which inform on the model’s predictability. Diffusion processes are visualised through interactive maps that highlight space-time variations in the probability and volatility of encountering a lethal attack from 2002 to 2013. Based on the previous twelve years of observation, the location and lethality of terrorist events in 2014 are statistically accurately predicted. Throughout the global scope of this research, local diffusion processes such as escalation and relocation are systematically examined: the former process describes an expansion from high concentration areas of lethal terrorist events (hotspots) to neighbouring areas, while the latter is characterised by changes in the location of hotspots. By controlling for the effect of geographical, economical and demographic variables, the results of the model suggest that the diffusion processes of lethal terrorism are jointly driven by contagious and non-contagious factors that operate on a local scale – as predicted by theories of diffusion. Moreover, by providing a quantitative measure of predictability, the model prevents policy-makers from making decisions based on highly uncertain predictions. Ultimately, this research may provide important complementary tools to enhance the efficiency of policies that aim to prevent and combat terrorism.

Keywords: diffusion process, terrorism, spatial dynamics, spatio-temporal modeling

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Authors: Bruna Azzari Puga, Richard Roe, Andre Pagani de Souza

Abstract:

abstract outlines a proposed study to examine how and to what extent interactive, experiential, learner centered methodology develops learning of basic civic and democratic competencies among young children. It stems from the Literacy and Law course taught at Georgetown University Law Center in Washington, DC, since 1998. Law students, trained in best literacy practices and legal cases affecting literacy development, read “law related” children’s books and engage in interactive and extension activities with emerging readers. The law students write a monthly journal describing their experiences and a final paper: a conventional paper or a children’s book illuminating some aspect of literacy and law. This proposal is based on the recent adaptation of Literacy and Law to Brazil at Mackenzie Presbyterian University in São Paulo in three forms: first, a course similar to the US model, often conducted jointly online with Brazilian and US law students; second, a similar course that combines readings of children’s literature with activity based learning, with law students from a satellite Mackenzie campus, for young children from a vulnerable community near the city; and third, a course taught by law students at the main Mackenzie campus for 4th grade students at the Mackenzie elementary school, that is wholly activity and discourse based. The workings and outcomes of these courses are well documented by photographs, reports, lesson plans, and law student journals. The authors, faculty who teach the above courses at Mackenzie and Georgetown, observe that literacy, broadly defined as cognitive and expressive development through reading and discourse-based activities, can be influential in developing democratic civic skills, identifiable by explicit civic competencies. For example, children experience justice in the classroom through cooperation, creativity, diversity, fairness, systemic thinking, and appreciation for rules and their purposes. Moreover, the learning of civic skills as well as the literacy skills is enhanced through interactive, learner centered practices in which the learners experience literacy and civic development. This study will develop rubrics for individual and classroom teaching and supervision by examining 1) the children’s books and students diaries of participating law students and 2) the collection of photos and videos of classroom activities, and 3) faculty and supervisor observations and reports. These rubrics, and the lesson plans and activities which are employed to advance the higher levels of performance outcomes, will be useful in training and supervision and in further replication and promotion of this form of teaching and learning. Examples of outcomes include helping, cooperating and participating; appreciation of viewpoint diversity; knowledge and utilization of democratic processes, including due process, advocacy, individual and shared decision making, consensus building, and voting; establishing and valuing appropriate rules and a reasoned approach to conflict resolution. In conclusion, further development and replication of the learner centered literacy and law practices outlined here can lead to improved qualities of democratic teaching and learning supporting mutual respect, positivity, deep learning, and the common good – foundation qualities of a sustainable world.

Keywords: democracy, law, learner-centered, literacy

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Authors: Pierre-Andre Mudry, Jean Decaix, Jeremy Schmid, Cesar Papilloud, Cecile Munch-Alligne

Abstract:

In most of the Swiss Alpine regions, the availability of water resources is usually adequate even in times of drought, as evidenced by the 2003 and 2018 summers. Indeed, important natural stocks are for the moment available in the form of snow and ice, but the situation is likely to change in the future due to global and regional climate change. In addition, alpine mountain regions are areas where climate change will be felt very rapidly and with high intensity. For instance, the ice regime of these regions has already been affected in recent years with a modification of the monthly availability and extreme events of precipitations. The current research, focusing on the municipality of Val de Bagnes, located in the canton of Valais, Switzerland, is part of a project led by the Altis company and achieved in collaboration with WSL, BlueArk Entremont, and HES-SO Valais-Wallis. In this region, water occupies a key position notably for winter and summer tourism. Thus, multiple actors want to apprehend the future needs and availabilities of water, on both the 2050 and 2100 horizons, in order to plan the modifications to the water supply and distribution networks. For those changes to be salient and efficient, a good knowledge of the current water distribution networks is of most importance. In the current case, the water drinking network is well documented, but this is not the case for the irrigation one. Since the water consumption for irrigation is ten times higher than for drinking water, data acquisition on the irrigation network is a major point to determine future scenarios. This paper first presents the instrumentation and simulation of the irrigation network using custom-designed IoT devices, which are coupled with a digital clone simulated to reduce the number of measuring locations. The developed IoT ad-hoc devices are energy-autonomous and can measure flows and pressures using industrial sensors such as calorimetric water flow meters. Measurements are periodically transmitted using the LoRaWAN protocol over a dedicated infrastructure deployed in the municipality. The gathered values can then be visualized in real-time on a dashboard, which also provides historical data for analysis. In a second phase, a digital clone of the irrigation network was modeled using EPANET, a software for water distribution systems that performs extended-period simulations of flows and pressures in pressurized networks composed of reservoirs, pipes, junctions, and sinks. As a preliminary work, only a part of the irrigation network was modelled and validated by comparisons with the measurements. The simulations are carried out by imposing the consumption of water at several locations. The validation is performed by comparing the simulated pressures are different nodes with the measured ones. An accuracy of +/- 15% is observed on most of the nodes, which is acceptable for the operator of the network and demonstrates the validity of the approach. Future steps will focus on the deployment of the measurement devices on the whole network and the complete modelling of the network. Then, scenarios of future consumption will be investigated. Acknowledgment— The authors would like to thank the Swiss Federal Office for Environment (FOEN), the Swiss Federal Office for Agriculture (OFAG) for their financial supports, and ALTIS for the technical support, this project being part of the Swiss Pilot program 'Adaptation aux changements climatiques'.

Keywords: hydraulic digital clone, IoT water monitoring, LoRaWAN water measurements, EPANET, irrigation network

Procedia PDF Downloads 112