Search results for: strength prediction models

Authors: Thien Bach Nguyen, Nhu-Van Nguyen, Phi-Minh Nguyen, Minh Hien Dao

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The external store safe separation evaluation process implementing CFD and MIL-HDBK-1763 is proposed to support the evaluation and compliance of the external store safe separation with the extensive using CFD and the criteria from MIL-HDBK-1763. The criteria of safe separation are researched and investigated for the various standards and handbooks such as MIL-HDBK-1763, MIL-HDBK-244A, AGARD-AG-202 and AGARD-AG-300 to acquire the appropriate and tailored values and limits for the typical applications of external carriages and aircraft fighters. The CFD and 6DOF simulations are extensively used in ANSYS 2023 R1 Software for verification and validation of moving unstructured meshes and solvers by calibrating the position, aerodynamic forces and moments of the existing air-to-ground missile models. The verified CFD and 6DoF simulation separation process is applied and implemented for the investigation of the typical munition separation phenomena and compliance with the tailored requirements of MIL-HDBK-1763. The prediction of munition trajectory parameters under aircraft aerodynamics interference and specified rack unit consideration after munition separation is provided and complied with the tailored requirements to support the safe separation evaluation of improved and newly external store munition before the flight test performed. The proposed process demonstrates the effectiveness and reliability in providing the understanding of the complicated store separation and the reduction of flight test sorties during the improved and new munition development projects by extensively using the CFD and tailoring the existing standards.

Keywords: external store separation, MIL-HDBK-1763, CFD, moving meshes, flight test data, munition.

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Authors: Dang Hanh Nguyen, Nassim Sebaibi, Mohamed Boutouil, Lydia Leleyter, Fabienne Baraud

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Pervious concrete is a green alternative to conventional pavements with minimal fine aggregate and a high void content. Pervious concrete allows water to infiltrate through the pavement, thereby reducing the runoff and the requirement for stormwater management systems. Seashell By-Products (SBP) are produced in an important quantity in France and are considered as waste. This work investigated to use SBP in pervious concrete and produce an even more environmentally friendly product, Pervious Concrete Pavers. The research methodology involved substituting the coarse aggregate in the previous concrete mix design with 20%, 40% and 60% SBP. The testing showed that pervious concrete containing less than 40% SBP had strengths, permeability and void content which are comparable to the pervious concrete containing with only natural aggregate. The samples that contained 40% SBP or higher had a significant loss in strength and an increase in permeability and a void content from the control mix pervious concrete. On the basis of the results in this research, it was found that the natural aggregate can be substituted by SBP without affecting the delicate balance of a pervious concrete mix. Additional, it is recommended that the optimum replacement percentage for SBP in pervious concrete is 40 % direct replacement of natural coarse aggregate while maintaining the structural performance and drainage capabilities of the pervious concrete.

Keywords: seashell by-products, pervious concrete pavers, permeability, mechanical strength

Procedia PDF Downloads 483

Authors: Sara El Mansouria Beghdadi

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Quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) modelling is one of the main computer tools used in medicinal chemistry. Over the past two decades, the incidence of fungal infections has increased due to the development of resistance. In this study, the QSAR was performed on a series of esters of 2-carboxamido-3-(1H-imidazole-1-yl) propanoic acid derivatives. These compounds have showed moderate and very good antifungal activity. The multiple linear regression (MLR) was used to generate the linear 2d-QSAR models. The dataset consists of 115 compounds with their antifungal activity (log MIC) against «Candida albicans» (ATCC SC5314). Descriptors were calculated, and different models were generated using Chemoffice, Avogadro, GaussView software. The selected model was validated. The study suggests that the increase in lipophilicity and the reduction in the electronic character of the substituent in R1, as well as the reduction in the steric hindrance of the substituent in R2 and its aromatic character, supporting the potentiation of the antifungal effect. The results of QSAR could help scientists to propose new compounds with higher antifungal activities intended for immunocompromised patients susceptible to multi-resistant nosocomial infections.

Keywords: quantitative structure–activity relationship, imidazole, antifungal, candida albicans (ATCC SC5314)

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: Ricardo Merlo

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Attitude is a hypothetical construct that can be significantly measured to know the favorable or unfavorable predisposition that students have towards the teaching of sciences such as Physics. Although the state-of-the-art attitude test used in Physics teaching indicated different design and validation models in different groups of students, the analysis of the weight given to each dimension that supported the attitude was scarcely evaluated. Then, in this work, a methodology of attitude questionnaire construction process was proposed that allowed the teacher to design and validate the measurement instrument for different subjects of Physics at the university level developed in the classroom according to the weight considered to the affective, knowledge, and behavioural dimensions. Finally, questionnaire models were tested for the case of incoming university students, achieving significant results in the improvement of Physics teaching.

Keywords: attitude, physics teaching, motivation, academic performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Maryam Kiani

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The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of carbon black additive on the properties of fly ash-based geopolymer. The geopolymer samples were prepared using fly ash as the primary source material, along with an alkali activator solution and different concentrations of carbon black additive. The effects of carbon black on the geopolymer binder were evaluated by analyzing the compressive strength, flexural strength, water absorption, and microstructural properties of the cured samples. The results revealed that the inclusion of carbon black additive significantly enhanced the mechanical properties of the geopolymer binder. The compressive and flexural strengths were found to increase with the addition of carbon black, showing improvements of up to 25% and 15%, respectively. Moreover, the water absorption of the geopolymer samples reduced due to the presence of carbon black, indicating improved resistance against water permeability. Microstructural analysis using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) revealed a more compact and homogenous structure in the geopolymer samples with carbon black. The dispersion of carbon black particles within the geopolymer matrix was observed, suggesting improved interparticle bonding and increased densification. Overall, this study demonstrates the positive impact of carbon black additive on the qualities of fly ash-based geopolymer, emphasizing its potential as an effective enhancer for geopolymer binder applications.

Keywords: fly-ash, carbon black, nanotechnology, geopolymer

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Prof. Ammal Mokhtar Metwally, Samia M. Sami, Nihad A. Ibrahim, Fatma A. Shaaban, Iman I. Salama

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Objectives: Reducing neonatal mortality by 2030 is still a challenging goal in developing countries. low birth weight (LBW) is a significant contributor to this, especially where weighing newborns is not possible routinely. The present study aimed to determine a simple, easy, reliable anthropometric measure(s) that can predict LBW) and neonatal mortality. Methods: A prospective cohort study of 570 babies born in districts of El Menia governorate, Egypt (where most deliveries occurred at home) was examined at birth. Newborn weight, length, head, chest, mid-arm, and thigh circumferences were measured. Follow up of the examined neonates took place during their first four weeks of life to report any mortalities. The most predictable anthropometric measures were determined using the statistical package of SPSS, and multiple Logistic regression analysis was performed.: Results: Head and chest circumferences with cut-off points < 33 cm and ≤ 31.5 cm, respectively, were the significant predictors for LBW. They carried the best combination of having the highest sensitivity (89.8 % & 86.4 %) and least false negative predictive value (1.4 % & 1.7 %). Chest circumference with a cut-off point ≤ 31.5 cm was the significant predictor for neonatal mortality with 83.3 % sensitivity and 0.43 % false negative predictive value. Conclusion: Using chest circumference with a cut-off point ≤ 31.5 cm is recommended as a single simple anthropometric measurement for the prediction of both LBW and neonatal mortality. The predicted measure could act as a substitute for weighting newborns in communities where scales to weigh them are not routinely available.

Keywords: low birth weight, neonatal mortality, anthropometric measures, practical screening

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Authors: Navajyoti Panda, R. S. Pawar

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In this study, process parameters like punch angle, die opening, grain direction, and pre-bend condition of the strip for deep draw of high strength low alloy steel HSLA 420 are investigated. The finite element method (FEM) in association with the Taguchi and the analysis of variance (ANOVA) techniques are carried out to investigate the degree of importance of process parameters in V-bending process for HSLA 420&ST12 grade material. From results, it is observed that punch angle had a major influence on the spring-back. Die opening also showed very significant role on spring back. On the other hand, it is revealed that grain direction had the least impact on spring back; however, if strip from flat sheet is taken, then it is less prone to spring back as compared to the strip from sheet metal coil. HyperForm software is used for FEM simulation and experiments are designed using Taguchi method. Percentage contribution of the parameters is obtained through the ANOVA techniques.

Keywords: bending, spring-back, v-bending, FEM, Taguchi, HSLA 420 and St12 materials, HyperForm, profile projector

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: Rafael Zhindon Almeida

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Surface water quality is an important concern for the evaluation and prediction of water quality conditions. The objective of this study is to develop a statistical model that can accurately predict the water quality of the El Macho estuary in the city of Machala, El Oro province. The methodology employed in this study is of a basic type that involves a thorough search for theoretical foundations to improve the understanding of statistical modeling for water quality analysis. The research design is correlational, using a multivariate statistical model involving multiple linear regression and principal component analysis. The results indicate that water quality parameters such as fecal coliforms, biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, iron and dissolved oxygen exceed the allowable limits. The water of the El Macho estuary is determined to be below the required water quality criteria. The multiple linear regression model, based on chemical oxygen demand and total dissolved solids, explains 99.9% of the variance of the dependent variable. In addition, principal component analysis shows that the model has an explanatory power of 86.242%. The study successfully developed a statistical model to evaluate the water quality of the El Macho estuary. The estuary did not meet the water quality criteria, with several parameters exceeding the allowable limits. The multiple linear regression model and principal component analysis provide valuable information on the relationship between the various water quality parameters. The findings of the study emphasize the need for immediate action to improve the water quality of the El Macho estuary to ensure the preservation and protection of this valuable natural resource.

Keywords: statistical modeling, water quality, multiple linear regression, principal components, statistical models

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Authors: Rupam Saikia, Ashim Kanti Dey

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Sonapur is an intense hilly region on the border of Assam and Meghalaya lying in North-East India and is very near to a seismic fault named as Dauki besides which makes the region seismically active. Besides, these recently two earthquakes of magnitude 6.7 and 6.9 have struck North-East India in January and April 2016. Also, the slope concerned for this study is adjacent to NH 44 which for a long time has been a sole important connecting link to the states of Manipur and Mizoram along with some parts of Assam and so has been a cause of considerable loss to life and property since past decades as there has been several recorded incidents of landslide, road-blocks, etc. mostly during the rainy season which comes into news. Based on this issue this paper reports a static and dynamic slope stability analysis of Sonapur which has been carried out in MIDAS GTS NX. The slope being highly unreachable due to terrain and thick vegetation in-situ test was not feasible considering the current scope available so disturbed soil sample was collected from the site for the determination of strength parameters. The strength parameters were so determined for varying relative density with further variation in water content. The slopes were analyzed considering plane strain condition for three slope heights of 5 m, 10 m and 20 m which were then further categorized based on slope angles 30, 40, 50, 60, and 70 considering the possible extent of steepness. Initially static analysis under dry state was performed then considering the worst case that can develop during rainy season the slopes were analyzed for fully saturated condition along with partial degree of saturation with an increase in the waterfront. Furthermore, dynamic analysis was performed considering the El-Centro Earthquake which had a magnitude of 6.7 and peak ground acceleration of 0.3569g at 2.14 sec for the slope which were found to be safe during static analysis under both dry and fully saturated condition. Some of the conclusions were slopes with inclination above 40 onwards were found to be highly vulnerable for slopes of height 10 m and above even under dry static condition. Maximum horizontal displacement showed an exponential increase with an increase in inclination from 30 to 70. The vulnerability of the slopes was seen to be further increased during rainy season as even slopes of minimal steepness of 30 for height 20 m was seen to be on the verge of failure. Also, during dynamic analysis slopes safe during static analysis were found to be highly vulnerable. Lastly, as a part of the study a comparative study on Strength Reduction Method (SRM) versus Limit Equilibrium Method (LEM) was also carried out and some of the advantages and disadvantages were figured out.

Keywords: dynamic analysis, factor of safety, slope stability, strength reduction method

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Authors: M. Nazem Salimi, C. Abrinia, M. Baniassadi, M. Ehsani

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Mechanical properties of epoxy based nanocomposites containing copper coated MWCNTs were investigated and a comparative study between nanocomposites containing functionalized MWCNTs and copper coated MWCNTs which are already functionalized was conducted. The MWCNTs was deposited with copper nanoparticles through electroless deposition process after accomplishment of "two-step" method as sensitization and activation procedures on oxidized MWCNTs. In addition, functionalization of MWCNTs was carried out through combination of two covalent and non-covalent funcionalization methods using HNO3 for acid solution of covalent treatment and Triton X100 as non-ionic surfactant of non-covalent treatment. The presence of functional groups and removal of impurities of MWCNTs were confirmed by FTIR and Raman spectroscopy, respectively. The layer of copper nanoparticles on the MWCNTs wall increasing its diameter was observed by SEM. Utilizing solution blending process, 0.1%, 0.5% and 1.5% wt loading of both copper coated MWCNTs and non-coated MWCNTs were used to prepare epoxy-based nanocomposites. The tensile, flexural and impact properties of nanocomposites were investigated. The results of tensile test demonstrated that nanocomposites containing copper coated MWCNTs exhibited brittle behavior compared to those reinforced with functionalized MWCNTs, whereas former one exhibited higher values of modulus than latter one for concentrations more than 0.4% wt. Presence of copper particles on MWCNTs surface decreased the tensile strength of nanocomposites. In comparison to pure epoxy, nanocomposites with treated-MWCNTs and Cu-MWCNTs loading of 0.1% wt showed an increase of 35% and 51.6% for flexural strength beside 20% and 30% increase in flexural modulus, respectively, whereas flexural properties of both naocomposites decreased with increasing of CNTs concentration. The results of impact strength of nanocomposites with Cu-CNTs demonstrated that impact properties decreased with increasing of filler content with a optimum value at 0.1% wt while in high concentrations impact properties of Cu-nanocomposites exhibited lower values than f-MWCNT nanocomposites.

Keywords: epoxyresin, nanocomposite, functionalization, copper, electroless deposition process, mechanical properties

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Authors: Babak Mohajeri

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In recent years, the conventional business model of ownership has been changed towards accessibility in a variety of markets. Two trends can be observed in the evolution of this rental-like business model. Firstly, the technological development that enables the emergence of new business models. These new business models increasingly become agile and flexible. For example Spotify, an online music stream company provides consumers access to over millions of music tracks, conveniently through the smartphone, tablet or computer. Similarly, Car2Go, the car sharing company accesses its members with flexible and nearby sharing cars. The second trend is the increasing communication and connections via social networks. This trend enables a shift to peer-to-peer accessibility based business models. Conventionally, companies provide access for their customers to own companies products or services. In peer-to-peer model, nonetheless, companies facilitate access and connection across their customers to use other customers owned property or skills, competencies or services .The is so-called the sharing economy business model. The aim of this study is to investigate into a new and emerging type of the sharing economy model in which role of customers and service providers may dramatically change. This new model is called Collaborative Service Networks. We propose a mechanism for Collaborative Service Networks business model. Uber and Airbnb, two successful growing companies, have been selected for our case studies and their business models are analyzed. Finally, we study the emergence of the collaborative service networks in the manufacturing domain. Our finding results to a new manufacturing paradigm called social manufacturing.

Keywords: sharing economy, collaborative service networks, social manufacturing, manufacturing development

Procedia PDF Downloads 317

Authors: Vinayak Malaghan, Digvijay Pawar

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Speed is the independent parameter which plays a vital role in the highway design. Design consistency of the highways is checked based on the variation in the operating speed. Often the design consistency fails to meet the driver’s expectation which results in the difference between operating and design speed. Literature reviews have shown that significant crashes take place in horizontal curves due to lack of design consistency. The paper focuses on continuous speed profile study on tangent to curve transition for both day and night daytime. Data is collected using GPS device which gives continuous speed profile and other parameters such as acceleration, deceleration were analyzed along with Tangent to Curve Transition. In this present study, models were developed to predict operating speed on tangents and horizontal curves as well as model indicating the speed reduction from tangent to curve based on continuous speed profile data. It is observed from the study that vehicle tends to decelerate from approach tangent to between beginning of the curve and midpoint of the curve and then accelerates from curve to tangent transition. The models generated were compared for both day and night and can be used in the road safety improvement by evaluating the geometric design consistency.

Keywords: operating speed, design consistency, continuous speed profile data, day and night time

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Daniel Zarzo Montes, Manuel Zarzo Castelló

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Proteins play a fundamental role in biology, but their structure is complex, and it is a challenge for teachers to conceptually explain the differences between their primary, secondary, tertiary, and quaternary structures. On the other hand, there are currently many computer programs to visualize the 3D structure of proteins, but they require advanced training and knowledge. Moreover, it becomes difficult to visualize the sequence of amino acids in these models, and how the protein conformation is reached. Given this drawback, a simple and instructive procedure is proposed in order to teach the protein structure to undergraduate and graduate students. For this purpose, insulin has been chosen because it is a protein that consists of 51 amino acids, a relatively small number. The methodology has consisted of the use of plastic atom models, which are frequently used in organic chemistry and biochemistry to explain the chirality of biomolecules. For didactic purposes, when the aim is to teach the biochemical foundations of proteins, a manipulative system seems convenient, starting from the chemical structure of amino acids. It has the advantage that the bonds between amino acids can be conveniently rotated, following the pattern marked by the 3D models. First, the 51 amino acids were modeled, and then they were linked according to the sequence of this protein. Next, the three disulfide bonds that characterize the stability of insulin have been established, and then the alpha-helix structure has been formed. In order to reach the tertiary 3D conformation of this protein, different interactive models available on the Internet have been visualized. In conclusion, the proposed methodology seems very suitable for biology and biochemistry students because they can learn the fundamentals of protein modeling by means of a manipulative procedure as a basis for understanding the functionality of proteins. This methodology would be conveniently useful for a biology or biochemistry laboratory practice, either at the pre-graduate or university level.

Keywords: protein structure, 3D model, insulin, biomolecule

Procedia PDF Downloads 56

Authors: H. Al-Hajeri

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The computation of the effectiveness of turbulence enhancement surface features, such as ribs as means of promoting mixing and hence heat transfer, has attracted the continued attention of the engineering community. In this study, the simulation of a three-dimensional cooling passage is carried out employing a number of turbulence models including Durbin model. The cooling passage consists of a square section duct whose upper and lower surfaces feature staggered cuboid ribs. The main objective of this paper is to provide comparisons of the performance of the v2-f model against other established turbulence models as implemented in the commercial CFD code Ansys Fluent. The present study demonstrates that the v2-f model can successfully capture the isothermal air flow phenomena in flow over obstacles.

Keywords: CFD, cooling passage, Durbin model, turbulence model

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Authors: J. Y. Heo, H. G. Sung

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Numerical simulations have been performed for assessment of compressibility correction of two-equation turbulence models suitable for large scale separation flows perturbed by pintle strokes. In order to take into account pintle movement, a sliding mesh method was applied. The chamber pressure, mass flow rate, and thrust have been analyzed, and the response lag and sensitivity at the chamber and nozzle were estimated for a movable pintle. The nozzle performance for pintle reciprocating as its insertion and extraction processes, were analyzed to better understand the dynamic performance of the pintle nozzle.

Keywords: pintle, sliding mesh, turbulent model, compressibility correction

Procedia PDF Downloads 490

Authors: RuiJin Zhang, HengJiang Cai, JinSong Gui

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It takes Patinopecten yessoensis larvae more than 20 days from spawning to settlement. Due to the natural environmental factors such as current, Patinopecten yessoensis larvae are transported to a distance more than hundreds of kilometers, leading to a high instability of their spatial and temporal distribution and great difficulties in the natural spat collection. Therefore predicting the distribution is of great significance to improve the operating efficiency of the collecting. Hydrodynamic model of Northern China Yellow Sea was established and the motions equations of physical oceanography and verified by the tidal harmonic constants and the measured data velocities of Dalian Bay. According to the passivity drift characteristics of the larvae, combined with the hydrodynamic model and the particle tracking model, the spatial and temporal distribution prediction model was established and the spatial and temporal distribution of the larvae under the influence of flow and wind were simulated. It can be concluded from the model results: ocean currents have greatest impacts on the passive drift path and diffusion of Patinopecten yessoensis larvae; the impact of wind is also important, which changed the direction and speed of the drift. Patinopecten yessoensis larvae were generated in the sea along Zhangzi Island and Guanglu-Dachangshan Island, but after two months, with the impact of wind and currents, the larvae appeared in the west of Dalian and the southern of Lvshun, and even in Bohai Bay. The model results are consistent with the relevant literature on qualitative analysis, and this conclusion explains where the larvae come from in the perspective of numerical simulation.

Keywords: numerical simulation, Patinopecten yessoensis larvae, predicting model, spatial and temporal distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 305

Authors: Nabil Shawkat, Jamil Saquer

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Social media has accelerated our ability to engage with others and eliminated many communication barriers. On the other hand, the widespread use of social media resulted in an increase in online hate speech. This has drastic impacts on vulnerable individuals and societies. Therefore, it is critical to detect hate speech to prevent innocent users and vulnerable communities from becoming victims of hate speech. We investigate the performance of different deep learning and machine learning algorithms on three different datasets. Our results show that the BERT model gives the best performance among all the models by achieving an F1-score of 90.6% on one of the datasets and F1-scores of 89.7% and 88.2% on the other two datasets.

Keywords: hate speech, machine learning, deep learning, abusive words, social media, text classification

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Faidon Kyriakou, William Dempster, David Nash

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Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) is a major life-threatening pathology for which modern approaches reduce the need for open surgery through the use of stenting. The success of stenting though is sometimes jeopardized by the final position of the stent graft inside the human artery which may result in migration, endoleaks or blood flow occlusion. Herein, a finite element (FE) model of the commercial medical device AnacondaTM (Vascutek, Terumo) has been developed and validated in order to create a numerical tool able to provide useful clinical insight before the surgical procedure takes place. The AnacondaTM device consists of a series of NiTi rings sewn onto woven polyester fabric, a structure that despite its column stiffness is flexible enough to be used in very tortuous geometries. For the purposes of this study, a FE model of the device was built in Abaqus® (version 6.13-2) with the combination of beam, shell and surface elements; the choice of these building blocks was made to keep the computational cost to a minimum. The validation of the numerical model was performed by comparing the deployed position of a full stent graft device inside a constructed AAA with a duplicate set-up in Abaqus®. Specifically, an AAA geometry was built in CAD software and included regions of both high and low tortuosity. Subsequently, the CAD model was 3D printed into a transparent aneurysm, and a stent was deployed in the lab following the steps of the clinical procedure. Images on the frontal and sagittal planes of the experiment allowed the comparison with the results of the numerical model. By overlapping the experimental and computational images, the mean and maximum distances between the rings of the two models were measured in the longitudinal, and the transverse direction and, a 5mm upper bound was set as a limit commonly used by clinicians when working with simulations. The two models showed very good agreement of their spatial positioning, especially in the less tortuous regions. As a result, and despite the inherent uncertainties of a surgical procedure, the FE model allows confidence that the final position of the stent graft, when deployed in vivo, can also be predicted with significant accuracy. Moreover, the numerical model run in just a few hours, an encouraging result for applications in the clinical routine. In conclusion, the efficient modelling of a complicated structure which combines thin scaffolding and fabric has been demonstrated to be feasible. Furthermore, the prediction capabilities of the location of each stent ring, as well as the global shape of the graft, has been shown. This can allow surgeons to better plan their procedures and medical device manufacturers to optimize their designs. The current model can further be used as a starting point for patient specific CFD analysis.

Keywords: AAA, efficiency, finite element analysis, stent deployment

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Vishal Das, Tianyi Mao, Zhicheng Geng, Carmen Flores, Diego Pelloso, Fang Wang

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Accurate sell-in and sell-out forecasting is a ubiquitous problem in the retail industry. It is an important element of any demand planning activity. As a global food and beverage company, Nestlé has hundreds of products in each geographical location that they operate in. Each product has its sell-in and sell-out time series data, which are forecasted on a weekly and monthly scale for demand and financial planning. To address this challenge, Nestlé Chilein collaboration with Amazon Machine Learning Solutions Labhas developed their in-house solution of using machine learning models for forecasting. Similar products are combined together such that there is one model for each product category. In this way, the models learn from a larger set of data, and there are fewer models to maintain. The solution is scalable to all product categories and is developed to be flexible enough to include any new product or eliminate any existing product in a product category based on requirements. We show how we can use the machine learning development environment on Amazon Web Services (AWS) to explore a set of forecasting models and create business intelligence dashboards that can be used with the existing demand planning tools in Nestlé. We explored recent deep learning networks (DNN), which show promising results for a variety of time series forecasting problems. Specifically, we used a DeepAR autoregressive model that can group similar time series together and provide robust predictions. To further enhance the accuracy of the predictions and include domain-specific knowledge, we designed an ensemble approach using DeepAR and XGBoost regression model. As part of the ensemble approach, we interlinked the sell-out and sell-in information to ensure that a future sell-out influences the current sell-in predictions. Our approach outperforms the benchmark statistical models by more than 50%. The machine learning (ML) pipeline implemented in the cloud is currently being extended for other product categories and is getting adopted by other geomarkets.

Keywords: sell-in and sell-out forecasting, demand planning, DeepAR, retail, ensemble machine learning, time-series

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Authors: B. A. Mir, A. Juneja

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In this paper, shear behavior of reconstituted clay reinforced with varying diameter of sand compaction piles with area replacement-ratio (a_s) of 6.25, 10.24, 16, 20.25 and 64% in 100mm diameter and 200mm long clay specimens is modeled using consolidated drained and undrained triaxial tests under different confining pressures ranging from 50kPa to 575kPa. The test results show that the stress-strain behavior of the clay was highly influenced by the presence of SCP. The insertion of SCPs into soft clay has shown to have a positive effect on the load carrying capacity of the clay, resulting in a composite soil mass that has greater shear strength and improved stiffness compared to the unreinforced clay due to increased reinforcement area ratio. In addition, SCP also acts as vertical drain in the clay thus accelerating the dissipation of excess pore water pressures that are generated during loading by shortening the drainage path and activating radial drainage, thereby reducing post-construction settlement. Thus, sand compaction piles currently stand as one of the most viable and practical techniques for improving the mechanical properties of soft clays.

Keywords: reconstituted clay, SCP, shear strength, stress-strain response, triaxial tests

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Authors: Husham Bayazed

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Immune responses following surgical trauma play a pivotal role in predicting postoperative outcomes from healing and recovery to postoperative complications. Postoperative complications, including infections and protracted recovery, occur in a significant number of about 300 million surgeries performed annually worldwide. Complications cause personal suffering along with a significant economic burden on the healthcare system in any community. The accurate prediction of postoperative complications and patient-targeted interventions for their prevention remain major clinical provocations. Recent Findings: Recent studies are focusing on immune dysregulation mechanisms that occur in response to surgical trauma as a key determinant of postoperative complications. Antecedent studies mainly were plunging into the detection of inflammatory plasma markers, which facilitate in providing important clues regarding their pathogenesis. However, recent Single-cell technologies, such as mass cytometry or single-cell RNA sequencing, have markedly enhanced our ability to understand the immunological basis of postoperative immunological trauma complications and to identify their prognostic biological signatures. Summary: The advent of proteomic technologies has significantly advanced our ability to predict the risk of postoperative complications. Multiomic modeling of patients' immune states holds promise for the discovery of preoperative predictive biomarkers and providing patients and surgeons with information to improve surgical outcomes. However, more studies are required to accurately predict the risk of postoperative complications in individual patients.

Keywords: immune dysregulation, postoperative complications, surgical trauma, flow cytometry

Procedia PDF Downloads 86

Authors: Geng Xiangren, Liu Lei, Gui Ye-Wei, Tang Wei, Wang An-ling

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The malfunction of thermal protection system (TPS) caused by aerodynamic heating is a latent trouble to aircraft structure safety. Accurately predicting the structure temperature field is quite important for the TPS design of hypersonic vehicle. Since Thornton’s work in 1988, the coupled method of aerodynamic heating and heat transfer has developed rapidly. However, little attention has been paid to the influence of structural deformation on aerodynamic heating and structural temperature field. In the flight, especially the long-endurance flight, the structural deformation, caused by the aerodynamic heating and temperature rise, has a direct impact on the aerodynamic heating and structural temperature field. Thus, the coupled interaction cannot be neglected. In this paper, based on the method of static aero-thermo-elasticity, considering the influence of aero-thermo-elasticity deformation, the aerodynamic heating and heat transfer coupled results of hypersonic vehicle wing model were calculated. The results show that, for the low-curvature region, such as fuselage or center-section wing, structure deformation has little effect on temperature field. However, for the stagnation region with high curvature, the coupled effect is not negligible. Thus, it is quite important for the structure temperature prediction to take into account the effect of elastic deformation. This work has laid a solid foundation for improving the prediction accuracy of the temperature distribution of aircraft structures and the evaluation capacity of structural performance.

Keywords: aerothermoelasticity, elastic deformation, structural temperature, multi-field coupling

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Authors: Ramita Vongrat, Pornsri Sapsrithong, Manit Nithitanakul

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In this work, blends of polyamide 6 (PA6) and polybutylene terephthalate (PBT) were successfully prepared. The effect of epoxidized natural rubber (ENR-25) and n butyl acrylate glycidyl methacrylate ethylene (EBa-GMA) as a compatibilizer on properties of PA6/PBT blends was also investigated by varying amount of ENR-50 and EBa-GMA, i.e., 0, 0.1, 0.5, 5 and 10 phr. All blends were prepared and shaped by using twin-screw extruder at 230 °C and injection molding machine, respectively. All test specimens were characterized by phase morphology, impact strength, tensile, flexural properties, and hardness. The results exhibited that phase morphology of PA6/PBT blend without compatibilizer was incompatible. This could be attributed to poor interfacial adhesion between the two polymers. SEM micrographs showed that the addition of ENR-25 and EBa-GMA improved the compatibility of PA6/PBT blends. With the addition of ENR-50 as a compatibilizer, the uniformity and the maximum reduction of dispersed phase size were observed. Additionally, the results indicate that, as the amount of ENR-25 increased, and EBa-GMA increased, the mechanical properties, including stress at the peak, tensile modulus, and izod impact strength, were also improved.

Keywords: EBa-GMA, epoxidized natural rubber-25, polyamide 6, polybutylene terephthalate

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Authors: C. Deangeli, P. Obentaku Obenebot, O. Omwanghe

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The study focuses on the analysis of wellbore instability in rock masses affected by weakness planes. The occurrence of failure in such a type of rocks can occur in the rock matrix and/ or along the weakness planes, in relation to the mud weight gradient. In this case the simple Kirsch solution coupled with a failure criterion cannot supply a suitable scenario for borehole instabilities. Two different numerical approaches have been used in order to investigate the onset of local failure at the wall of a borehole. For each type of approach the influence of the inclination of weakness planes has been investigates, by considering joint sets at 0°, 35° and 90° to the horizontal. The first set of models have been carried out with FLAC 2D (Fast Lagrangian Analysis of Continua) by considering the rock material as a continuous medium, with a Mohr Coulomb criterion for the rock matrix and using the ubiquitous joint model for accounting for the presence of the weakness planes. In this model yield may occur in either the solid or along the weak plane, or both, depending on the stress state, the orientation of the weak plane and the material properties of the solid and weak plane. The second set of models have been performed with PFC2D (Particle Flow code). This code is based on the Discrete Element Method and considers the rock material as an assembly of grains bonded by cement-like materials, and pore spaces. The presence of weakness planes is simulated by the degradation of the bonds between grains along given directions. In general the results of the two approaches are in agreement. However the discrete approach seems to capture more complex phenomena related to local failure in the form of grain detachment at wall of the borehole. In fact the presence of weakness planes in the discontinuous medium leads to local instability along the weak planes also in conditions not predicted from the continuous solution. In general slip failure locations and directions do not follow the conventional wellbore breakout direction but depend upon the internal friction angle and the orientation of the bedding planes. When weakness plane is at 0° and 90° the behaviour are similar to that of a continuous rock material, but borehole instability is more severe when weakness planes are inclined at an angle between 0° and 90° to the horizontal. In conclusion, the results of the numerical simulations show that the prediction of local failure at the wall of the wellbore cannot disregard the presence of weakness planes and consequently the higher mud weight required for stability for any specific inclination of the joints. Despite the discrete approach can simulate smaller areas because of the large number of particles required for the generation of the rock material, however it seems to investigate more correctly the occurrence of failure at the miscroscale and eventually the propagation of the failed zone to a large portion of rock around the wellbore.

Keywords: continuous- discontinuous, numerical modelling, weakness planes wellbore, FLAC 2D

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Authors: Petros Gkotsis, Giorgos Stratidis, Manassis Mitrakas, Anastasios Zouboulis

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This study investigates the use of original and pre-polymerized iron (Fe) reagents compared to the commonly applied polyaluminum chloride (PACl) coagulant for surface water treatment. Applicable coagulants included both ferric chloride (FeCl₃) and ferric sulfate (Fe₂(SO₄)₃) and their pre-polymerized Fe reagents, such as polyferric sulfate (PFS) and polyferric chloride (PFCl). The efficiency of coagulants was evaluated by the removal of natural organic matter (NOM) and suspended solids (SS), which were determined in terms of reducing the UV absorption at 254 nm and turbidity, respectively. The residual metal concentration (Fe and Al) was also measured. Coagulants were added at five concentrations (1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 mg/L) and three pH values (7.0, 7.3 and 7.6). Experiments were conducted in a jar-test device, with two types of synthetic surface water (i.e., of high and low organic strength) which consisted of humic acid (HA) and kaolin at different concentrations (5 mg/L and 50 mg/L). After the coagulation/flocculation process, clean water was separated with filters of pore size 0.45 μm. Filtration was also conducted before the addition of coagulants in order to compare the ‘net’ effect of the coagulation/flocculation process on the examined parameters (UV at 254 nm, turbidity, and residual metal concentration). Results showed that the use of PACl resulted in the highest removal of humics for both types of surface water. For the surface water of high organic strength (humic acid-kaolin, 50 mg/L-50 mg/L), the highest removal of humics was observed at the highest coagulant dosage of 5 mg/L and at pH=7. On the contrary, turbidity was not significantly affected by the coagulant dosage. However, the use of PACl decreased turbidity the most, especially when the surface water of high organic strength was employed. As expected, the application of coagulation/flocculation prior to filtration improved NOM removal but slightly affected turbidity. Finally, the residual Fe concentration (0.01-0.1 mg/L) was much lower than the residual Al concentration (0.1-0.25 mg/L).

Keywords: coagulation/flocculation, iron and aluminum coagulants, metal salts, pre-polymerized coagulants, surface water treatment

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Authors: Vatsal Patel, Niraj Shah

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This paper presents the results of a laboratory study on the properties of binary blended High Performance cementitious systems containing blends of ordinary Portland cement (OPC), Porcelain Powder or Marble Powder blend proportions of 100:00, 95:05, 90:10, 85:15, 80:20 for OPC: Porcelain Powder/Marble Powder. Studies on the Engineering Properties of the cementitious concrete, namely compressive strength, flexural strength, sorptivity, rapid chloride penetration test and accelerated corrosion test have been performed and those of OPC concrete. The results show that the inclusion of Porcelain powder or Marble Powder as binary blended cement alters to a great degree the properties of the binder as well as the resulting concrete. In addition, the results show that the Porcelain powder with 85:15 proportions and Marble powder with 90:10 proportions as binary systems to produce high-performance concrete could potentially be used in the concrete construction industry particular in lowering down the volume of OPC used and lowering emission of CO2 produces during manufacturing of cement.

Keywords: accelerated corrosion, binary blended cementitious system, rapid chloride penetration, sorptivity

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Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

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Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation, and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet, and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria, namely, the mean absolute error and root mean square error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data is used to train the models. The results of this study show that the SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts, we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hours ahead of electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, load forecast, SARIMA, TensorFlow probability, time series

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Authors: S. Al-Enezi, J. Samuel, A. Al-Banna

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Polymer based membranes are one of the low-cost technologies available for the gas separation. Three major elements required for a commercial gas separating membrane are high permeability, high selectivity, and good mechanical strength. Poly(vinylidene fluoride) (PVDF) is a commercially available fluoropolymer and a widely used membrane material in gas separation devices since it possesses remarkable thermal, chemical stability, and excellent mechanical strength. The PVDF membrane was chemically modified by soaking in different ionic liquids and dried. The thermal behavior of modified membranes was investigated by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), and thermogravimetry (TGA), and the results clearly show the best affinity between the ionic liquid and the polymer support. The porous structure of the PVDF membranes was clearly seen in the scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images. The CO₂ permeability of blended membranes was explored in comparison with the unmodified matrix. The ionic liquid immobilized in the hydrophobic PVDF support exhibited good performance for separations of CO₂/N₂. The improved permeability of modified membrane (PVDF-IL) is attributed to the high concentration of nitrogen rich imidazolium moieties.

Keywords: PVDF, polymer membrane, gas permeability, CO₂ separation, nanotubes

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Authors: O. A. Apampa, Y. A. Jimoh

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The paper reports the investigation of Corn Cob Ash as a chemical stabilizing agent for laterite soils. Corn cob feedstock was obtained from Maya, a rural community in the derived savannah agro-ecological zone of South-Western Nigeria and burnt to ashes of pozzolanic quality. Reddish brown silty clayey sand material characterized as AASHTO A-2-6(3) lateritic material was obtained from a borrow pit in Abeokuta and subjected to strength characterization tests according to BS 1377: 2000. The soil was subsequently mixed with CCA in varying percentages of 0-7.5% at 1.5% intervals. The influence of CCA stabilized soil was determined for the Atterberg limits, compaction characteristics, CBR and the unconfined compression strength. The tests were repeated on laterite cement-soil mixture in order to establish a basis for comparison. The result shows a similarity in the compaction characteristics of soil-cement and soil-CCA. With increasing addition of binder from 1.5% to 7.5%, Maximum Dry Density progressively declined while the OMC steadily increased. For the CBR, the maximum positive impact was observed at 1.5% CCA addition at a value of 85% compared to the control value of 65% for the cement stabilization, but declined steadily thereafter with increasing addition of CCA, while that of soil-cement continued to increase with increasing addition of cement beyond 1.5% though at a relatively slow rate. Similar behavior was observed in the UCS values for the soil-CCA mix, increasing from a control value of 0.4 MN/m2 to 1.0 MN/m2 at 1.5% CCA and declining thereafter, while that for soil-cement continued to increase with increasing cement addition, but at a slower rate. This paper demonstrates that CCA is effective for chemical stabilization of a typical Nigerian AASHTO A-2-6 lateritic soil at maximum stabilizer content limit of 1.5% and therefore recommends its use as a way of finding further application for agricultural waste products and achievement of environmental sustainability in line with the ideals of the millennium development goals because of the economic and technical feasibility of the processing of the cobs from corn.

Keywords: corn cob ash, pozzolan, cement, laterite, stabilizing agent, cation exchange capacity

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Authors: Victoria Goodall, Paul Fatti, Norman Owen-Smith

Abstract:

Hidden Markov Models have become popular for the analysis of animal tracking data. These models are being used to model the movements of a variety of species in many areas around the world. A common assumption of the model is that the observations need to have regular time steps. In many ecological studies, this will not be the case. The objective of the research is to modify the movement model to allow for irregularly spaced locations and investigate the effect on the inferences which can be made about the latent states. A modification of the likelihood function to allow for these irregular spaced locations is investigated, without using interpolation or averaging the movement rate. The suitability of the modification is investigated using GPS tracking data for lion (Panthera leo) in South Africa, with many observations obtained during the night, and few observations during the day. Many nocturnal predator tracking studies are set up in this way, to obtain many locations at night when the animal is most active and is difficult to observe. Few observations are obtained during the day, when the animal is expected to rest and is potentially easier to observe. Modifying the likelihood function allows the popular Hidden Markov Model framework to be used to model these irregular spaced locations, making use of all the observed data.

Keywords: hidden Markov Models, irregular observations, animal movement modelling, nocturnal predator

Procedia PDF Downloads 244