Search results for: response model

Authors: Yiqi Wu, Simon Tait, Andrew Nichols

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Management of UK railway drainage assets is challenging due to the large amounts of historical assets with long asset life cycles. A major concern for asset managers is to maintain the required performance economically and efficiently while complying with the relevant regulation and legislation. As the majority of the drainage assets are buried underground and are often difficult or costly to examine, it is important for asset managers to understand and model the degradation process in order to foresee the upcoming reduction in asset performance and conduct proactive maintenance accordingly. In this research, a Markov chain approach is used to model the deterioration process of rail drainage assets. The study is based on historical condition scores and characteristics of drainage assets across the whole railway network in England, Scotland, and Wales. The model is used to examine the effect of various characteristics on the probabilities of degradation, for example, the regional difference in probabilities of degradation, and how material and shape can influence the deterioration process for chambers, channels, and pipes.

Keywords: deterioration, degradation, markov models, probability, railway drainage

Procedia PDF Downloads 222

Authors: Natalia Ortega

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Safety Culture (SCU) involves various perceptual, psychological, behavioral, and managerial factors. It has been shown that creating and maintaining an SCU is one way to reduce and prevent accidents and fatalities. In the construction sector, safety attitude, knowledge, and a supportive environment are predictors of safety behavior. The highest possible proportion of safety behavior among employees can be achieved by improving their safety attitude and knowledge. Accordingly, top management's commitment to safety is vital in shaping employees' safety attitude; therefore, the first step to improving employees' safety attitude is the genuine commitment of top management to safety. One of the factors affecting the successful implementation of health and safety promotion programs is the construction industry's subcontracting model. The contractual model's complexity, combined with the need for coordination among diverse stakeholders, makes it challenging to implement, manage, and follow up on health and well-being initiatives. The Systems theoretic accident model and process (STAMP) concept has expanded global consideration in recent years, increasing research attention. STAMP focuses attention on the role of constraints in safety management. The findings discover a growth of the research field from the definition in 2004 by Leveson and is being used across multiple domains. A systematic literature review of this novel model aims to meet the safety goals for human space exploration with a powerful and different approach to safety management, safety-driven design, and decision-making. Around two hundred studies have been published about applying the model. However, every single model for safety requires time to transform into research and practice, be tested and debated, and grow further and mature.

Keywords: stamp, risk management, accident prevention, safety culture, systems thinking, construction industry, safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Snehal Mevada, Darshana Bhatt, Aryan Kalthiya, Neel Parmar, Vishal Baraiya, Dhruvit Bhanderi, Tisha Patel

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In multi-storeyed framed buildings, damage occurring from earthquake ground motion generally initiates at locations of structural weaknesses present in the lateral load-resisting frame. In some cases, these weaknesses may be created by discontinuities in stiffness, mass, plan, and torsion. Such discontinuity between storeys is often associated with sudden variations in the vertical geometric irregularities and plan irregularities. Vertical irregularities are structures with a soft storey that can further be broken down into the different types of irregularities as well as their severity for a more refined assessment tool pushover analysis which is one of the methods available for evaluating building against earthquake loads. So, it is very necessary to analyse and understand the seismic performance of the irregular structure in order to reduce the damage which occurs during an earthquake. In this project, a multi-storey (G+4) RCC building with four irregularities (stiffness, mass, plan, torsion) is studied for earthquake loads using the response spectrum method (dynamic analysis) and STADD PRO. All analyses have been done for seismic zone IV and for Medium Soil. In this study effects of different irregularities are analysed based on storey displacement, storey drift, and storey shear.

Keywords: comparison of regular and irregular structure, dynamic analysis, mass irregularity, plan irregularity, response spectrum method, stiffness irregularity, seismic performance, torsional irregularity, STAAD PRO

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Authors: Baya Takhedmit, Karim Abbas, Sofiane Ouazine

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The vacations queues are often employed to model many real situations such as computer systems, communication networks, manufacturing and production systems, transportation systems and so forth. These queueing models are solved at fixed parameters values. However, the parameter values themselves are determined from a finite number of observations and hence have uncertainty associated with them (epistemic uncertainty). In this paper, we consider the M/G/1/N queue with server vacation and exhaustive discipline where we assume that the vacation parameter values have uncertainty. We use the Taylor series expansions approach to estimate the expectation and variance of model output, due to epistemic uncertainties in the model input parameters.

Keywords: epistemic uncertainty, M/G/1/N queue with vacations, non-parametric sensitivity analysis, Taylor series expansion

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Authors: H. Mohammadi Majd, M. Jalali Azizpour, V. Tavaf, A. Jaderi

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In upsetting processes contact friction significantly influence metal flow, stress-strain state and process parameters. Furthermore, tribological conditions influence workpiece deformation and its dimensional precision. A viscoplastic constitutive law, the Anand model, was applied to represent the inelastic deformation behavior in upsetting process. This paper presents research results of the influence of contact friction coefficient on a workpiece deformation in upsetting process.finite element parameters. This technique was tested for three different specimens simulations of the upsetting and the corresponding material and can be successfully employed to predict the deformation of the upsetting process.

Keywords: friction, upsetting, barreling, Anand model

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Authors: Grienggrai Rajchakit

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As we all know that coronavirus is announced as a pandemic in the world by WHO. It is speeded all over the world with few days of time. To control this spreading, every citizen maintains social distance and self-preventive measures are the best strategies. As of now, many researchers and scientists are continuing their research in finding out the exact vaccine. The machine learning model finds that the coronavirus disease behaves in an exponential manner. To abolish the consequence of this pandemic, an efficient step should be taken to analyze this disease. In this paper, a recurrent neural network model is chosen to predict the number of active cases in a particular state. To make this prediction of active cases, we need a database. The database of COVID-19 is downloaded from the KAGGLE website and is analyzed by applying a recurrent LSTM neural network with univariant features to predict the number of active cases of patients suffering from the corona virus. The downloaded database is divided into training and testing the chosen neural network model. The model is trained with the training data set and tested with a testing dataset to predict the number of active cases in a particular state; here, we have concentrated on Andhra Pradesh state.

Keywords: COVID-19, coronavirus, KAGGLE, LSTM neural network, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 160

Authors: Asrat M.Belachew, Tiago Pereira, Institute of Mathematics, Computer Sciences, Avenida Trabalhador São Carlense, 400, São Carlos, 13566-590, Brazil

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Infectious diseases are among the most prominent threats to human beings. They cause morbidity and mortality to an individual and collapse the social, economic, and political systems of the whole world collectively. Mathematical models are fundamental tools and provide a comprehensive understanding of how infectious diseases spread and designing the control strategy to mitigate infectious diseases from the host population. Modeling the spread of infectious diseases using a compartmental model of inhomogeneous populations is good in terms of complexity. However, in the real world, there is a situation that accounts for heterogeneity, such as ages, locations, and contact patterns of the population which are ignored in a homogeneous setting. In this work, we study how classical an SEIR infectious disease spreading of the compartmental model can be extended by incorporating the mobility of population between heterogeneous cities during an outbreak of infectious disease. We have formulated an SEIR multi-cities epidemic spreading model using a system of 4k ordinary differential equations to describe the disease transmission dynamics in k-cities during the day and night. We have shownthat the model is epidemiologically (i.e., variables have biological interpretation) and mathematically (i.e., a unique bounded solution exists all the time) well-posed. We constructed the next-generation matrix (NGM) for the model and calculated the basic reproduction number R0for SEIR-epidemic spreading model with cities mobility. R0of the disease depends on the spectral radius mobility operator, and it is a threshold between asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and disease persistence. Using the eigenvalue perturbation theorem, we showed that sending a fraction of the population between cities decreases the reproduction number of diseases in interconnected cities. As a result, disease transmissiondecreases in the population.

Keywords: SEIR-model, mathematical model, city mobility, epidemic spreading

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Authors: Kyu Jin Kim, Byung Kwan Oh, Hyo Seon Park

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The seismic responses-based structural health monitoring system has been performed to reduce seismic damage. The inter-story drift ratio which is the major index of the seismic capacity assessment is employed for estimating the seismic damage of buildings. Meanwhile, seismic response analysis to estimate the structural responses of building demands significantly high computational cost due to increasing number of high-rise and large buildings. To estimate the inter-story drift ratio of buildings from the earthquake efficiently, this paper suggests the estimation method of inter-story drift for buildings using an artificial neural network (ANN). In the method, the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is integrated with optimization algorithm to optimize the variable through evolutionary learning that refers to evolutionary radial basis function neural network (ERBFNN). The estimation method estimates the inter-story drift without seismic response analysis when the new earthquakes are subjected to buildings. The effectiveness of the estimation method is verified through a simulation using multi-degree of freedom system.

Keywords: structural health monitoring, inter-story drift ratio, artificial neural network, radial basis function neural network, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Jingling Li, Yi Zhang, Wei Liang, Tao Cui, Jun Li

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Compared with terrestrial network, the traffic of spatial information network has both self-similarity and short correlation characteristics. By studying its traffic prediction method, the resource utilization of spatial information network can be improved, and the method can provide an important basis for traffic planning of a spatial information network. In this paper, considering the accuracy and complexity of the algorithm, the spatial information network traffic is decomposed into approximate component with long correlation and detail component with short correlation, and a time series hybrid prediction model based on wavelet decomposition is proposed to predict the spatial network traffic. Firstly, the original traffic data are decomposed to approximate components and detail components by using wavelet decomposition algorithm. According to the autocorrelation and partial correlation smearing and truncation characteristics of each component, the corresponding model (AR/MA/ARMA) of each detail component can be directly established, while the type of approximate component modeling can be established by ARIMA model after smoothing. Finally, the prediction results of the multiple models are fitted to obtain the prediction results of the original data. The method not only considers the self-similarity of a spatial information network, but also takes into account the short correlation caused by network burst information, which is verified by using the measured data of a certain back bone network released by the MAWI working group in 2018. Compared with the typical time series model, the predicted data of hybrid model is closer to the real traffic data and has a smaller relative root means square error, which is more suitable for a spatial information network.

Keywords: spatial information network, traffic prediction, wavelet decomposition, time series model

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Authors: Ciwang Teyra, A. H. Y. Lai

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Introduction: Indigenous LGBTQ individuals face with significant life stress such as racial and gender discrimination and microaggressions, which may lead to negative impacts of their mental health. Although studies relevant to Taiwanese indigenous LGBTQpeople gradually increase, most of them are primarily conceptual or qualitative in nature. This research aims to fulfill the gap by offering empirical quantitative evidence, especially investigating the impact of racial and gender microaggressions on mental health among Taiwanese indigenous LGBTQindividuals with an intersectional perspective, as well as examine whether social support can help them to cope with microaggressions. Methods: Participants were (n=200; mean age=29.51; Female=31%, Male=61%, Others=8%). A cross-sectional quantitative design was implemented using data collected in the year 2020. Standardised measurements was used, including Racial Microaggression Scale (10 items), Gender Microaggression Scale (9 items), Social Support Questionnaire-SF(6 items); Patient Health Questionnaire(9-item); and Generalised Anxiety Disorder(7-item). Covariates were age, gender, and perceived economic hardships. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was employed using Mplus 8.0 with the latent variables of depression and anxiety as outcomes. A main effect SEM model was first established (Model1).To test the moderation effects of perceived social support, an interaction effect model (Model 2) was created with interaction terms entered into Model1. Numerical integration was used with maximum likelihood estimation to estimate the interaction model. Results: Model fit statistics of the Model 1:X2(df)=1308.1 (795), p<.05; CFI/TLI=0.92/0.91; RMSEA=0.06; SRMR=0.06. For Model, the AIC and BIC values of Model 2 improved slightly compared to Model 1(AIC =15631 (Model1) vs. 15629 (Model2); BIC=16098 (Model1) vs. 16103 (Model2)). Model 2 was adopted as the final model. In main effect model 1, racialmicroaggressionand perceived social support were associated with depression and anxiety, but not sexual orientation microaggression(Indigenous microaggression: b = 0.27 for depression; b=0.38 for anxiety; Social support: b=-0.37 for depression; b=-0.34 for anxiety). Thus, an interaction term between social support and indigenous microaggression was added in Model 2. In the final Model 2, indigenous microaggression and perceived social support continues to be statistically significant predictors of both depression and anxiety. Social support moderated the effect of indigenous microaggression of depression (b=-0.22), but not anxiety. All covariates were not statistically significant. Implications: Results indicated that racial microaggressions have a significant impact on indigenous LGBTQ people’s mental health. Social support plays as a crucial role to buffer the negative impact of racial microaggression. To promote indigenous LGBTQ people’s wellbeing, it is important to consider how to support them to develop social support network systems.

Keywords: microaggressions, intersectionality, indigenous population, mental health, social support

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Authors: L. Torchane

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This study is devoted to defining the optimal conditions for the nitriding of pure iron at atmospheric pressure by using NH3-Ar-C3H8 gas mixtures. After studying the mechanisms of phase formation and mass transfer at the gas-solid interface, a mathematical model is developed in order to predict the nitrogen transfer rate in the solid, the ε-carbonitride layer growth rate and the nitrogen and carbon concentration profiles. In order to validate the model and to show its possibilities, it is compared with thermogravimetric experiments, analyses and metallurgical observations (X-ray diffraction, optical microscopy and electron microprobe analysis). Results obtained allow us to demonstrate the sound correlation between the experimental results and the theoretical predictions.

Keywords: gaseous nitrocarburizing, kinetic model, diffusion, layer growth kinetic

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Authors: Kevin Brochard, Herve Le Sourne, Guillaume Barras

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The design of a submarine’s hull is crucial for its operability and crew’s safety, but also complex. Indeed, engineers need to balance lightness, acoustic discretion and resistance to both immersion pressure and environmental attacks. Submarine explosions represent a first-rate threat for the integrity of the hull, whose behavior needs to be properly analyzed. The presented work is focused on the development of a simplified analytical method to study the structural response of a deeply immersed cylinder submitted to an underwater explosion. This method aims to provide engineers a quick estimation of the resulting damage, allowing them to simulate a large number of explosion scenarios. The present research relies on the so-called plastic string on plastic foundation model. A two-dimensional boundary value problem for a cylindrical shell is converted to an equivalent one-dimensional problem of a plastic string resting on a non-linear plastic foundation. For this purpose, equivalence parameters are defined and evaluated by making assumptions on the shape of the displacement and velocity field in the cross-sectional plane of the cylinder. Closed-form solutions for the deformation and velocity profile of the shell are obtained for explosive loading, and compare well with numerical and experimental results. However, the plastic-string model has not yet been adapted for a cylinder in immersion subjected to an explosive loading. In fact, the effects of fluid-structure interaction have to be taken into account. Moreover, when an underwater explosion occurs, several pressure waves are emitted by the gas bubble pulsations, called secondary waves. The corresponding loads, which may produce significant damages to the cylinder, must also be accounted for. The analytical developments carried out to solve the above problem of a shock wave impacting a cylinder, considering fluid-structure interaction will be presented for an unstiffened cylinder. The resulting deformations are compared to experimental and numerical results for different shock factors and different standoff distances.

Keywords: immersed cylinder, rigid plastic material, shock loading, underwater explosion

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Authors: Vinko Viducic, Jelena Žanic Mikulicic, Maja Racic, Kristina Sladojevic

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The research presented in this paper has been focused on analyzing the impact of traffic on the sustainable development of tourism in Croatia's Dubrovacko-Neretvanska County by the year 2020, based on the figures and trends reported in 2014 and using the relevant variables that characterise the synergy of traffic and tourism in, speaking from the geographic viewpoint, the most problematic county in the Republic of Croatia. The basic hypothesis has been confirmed through scientifically obtained research results, through the quantification of the model's variables and the direct growth rates of the designed model. On the basis of scientific insights into the sustainable development of traffic and tourism in Dubrovacko-Neretvanska County, it is possible to propose a new information model for traffic at the service of the sustainable development of tourism in the County for the period 2014-2020.

Keywords: environment protection, hotel industry, private sector, quantification

Procedia PDF Downloads 280

Authors: Sibgha Noreen, Muhammad Salim Akhter, Seema Mahmood

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Salt stress is an abiotic stress that causes a heavy toll on growth and development and also reduces the productivity of arable and horticultural crops. Globally, a quarter of total arable land has fallen prey to this menace, and more is being encroached because of the usage of brackish water for irrigation purposes. Though barley is categorized as salt-tolerant crop, but cultivars show a wide genetic variability in response to it. In addressing salt stress, silicon nutrition would be a facile tool for enhancing salt tolerant to sustain crop production. A greenhouse study was conducted to evaluate the response of barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) cultivars to silicon nutrition under salt stress. The treatments included [(a) four barley cultivars (Jou-87, B-14002, B-14011, B-10008); (b) two salt levels (0, 200 mM, NaCl); and (c) two silicon levels (0, 200ppm, K2SiO3. nH2O), arranged in a factorial experiment in a completely randomized design with 16 treatments and repeated 4 times. Plants were harvested at 15 days after exposure to different experimental salinity and silicon foliar conditions. Results revealed that various physiological and biochemical attributes differed significantly (p<0.05) in response to different treatments and their interactive effects. Cultivar “B-10008” excelled in biological yield, chlorophyll constituents, antioxidant enzymes, and grain yield compared to other cultivars. The biological yield of shoot and root organs was reduced by 27.3 and 26.5 percent under salt stress, while it was increased by 14.5 and 18.5 percent by exogenous application of silicon over untreated check, respectively. The imposition of salt stress at 200 mM caused a reduction in total chlorophyll content, chl ‘a’ , ‘b’ and ratio a/b by 10.6,16.8,17.1 and 7.1, while spray of 200 ppm silicon improved the quantum of the constituents by 10.4,12.1,10.2,10.3 over untreated check, respectively. The quantum of free amino acids and protein content was enhanced in response to salt stress and the spray of silicon nutrients. The amounts of superoxide dismutase, catalases, peroxidases, hydrogen peroxide, and malondialdehyde contents rose to 18.1, 25.7, 28.1, 29.5, and 17.6 percent over non-saline conditions under salt stress. However, the values of these antioxidants were reduced in proportion to salt stress by 200 ppm silicon applied as rooting medium on barley crops. The salt stress caused a reduction in the number of tillers, number of grains per spike, and 100-grain weight to the amount of 29.4, 8.6, and 15.8 percent; however, these parameters were improved by 7.1, 10.3, and 9.6 percent by foliar spray of silicon over untreated crop, respectively. It is concluded that the barley cultivar “B-10008” showed greater tolerance and adaptability to saline conditions. The yield of barley crops could be potentiated by a foliar spray of 200 ppm silicon at the vegetative growth stage under salt stress.

Keywords: salt stress, silicon nutrition, chlorophyll constituents, antioxidant enzymes, barley crop

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Authors: Muhammad Umair, Tanveer Hussain, Khubab Shaker, Yasir Nawab, Muhammad Maqsood, Madeha Jabbar

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The term comfort is defined as 'the absence of unpleasantness or discomfort' or 'a neutral state compared to the more active state'. Comfort mainly is of three types: sensorial (tactile) comfort, psychological comfort and thermo-physiological comfort. Thermophysiological comfort is determined by the air permeability and moisture management properties of the garment. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of weave structure and picking sequence on the comfort properties of woven fabrics. Six woven fabrics with two different weave structures i.e. 1/1 plain and 3/1 twill and three different picking sequences: (SPI, DPI, 3PI) were taken as input variables whereas air permeability, wetting time, wicking behavior and overall moisture management capability (OMMC) of fabrics were taken as response variables and a comparison is made of the effect of weave structure and picking sequence on the response variables. It was found that fabrics woven in twill weave design and with simultaneous triple pick insertion (3PI) give significantly better air permeability, shorter wetting time and better water spreading rate, as compared to plain woven fabrics and those with double pick insertion (DPI) or single pick insertion (SPI). It could be concluded that the thermophysiological comfort of woven fabrics may be significantly improved simply by selecting a suitable weave design and picking sequence.

Keywords: air permeability, picking sequence, thermophysiological comfort, weave design

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Authors: John Monro, Suman Mishra

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Choosing foods for health benefits requires information that accurately represents the relative effectiveness of foods with respect to specific health end points, or with respect to responses leading to health outcomes. At present consumers must rely on nutrient composition data, and on health claims to guide them to healthy food choices. Nutrient information may be of limited usefulness because it does not reflect the effect of food structure and food component interactions – that is, whole food effects. Health claims demand stringent criteria that exclude most foods, even though most foods have properties through which they may contribute to positive health outcomes in a diet. In this presentation, we show how the functional efficacy of foods may be expressed in the same format as nutrients, with weight units, as virtual food components that allow a nutrition information panel to show not only what a food is, but also what it does. In the presentation, two body responses linked to well-being are considered – glycaemic response and colonic bulk – in order to illustrate the concept. We show how the nutrient information on available carbohydrates and dietary fibre values obtained by food analysis methods fail to provide information of the glycaemic potency or the colonic bulking potential of foods, because of failings in the methods and approach taken to food analysis. It is concluded that a category of food values that represent the functional efficacy of foods is required to accurately guide food choices for health.

Keywords: dietary fibre, glycaemic response, food values, food effects, health

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Authors: Yuan-Jye Tseng, Ching-Yen Chen

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In the design cycle, a main design task is to determine the external shape of the product. The external shape of a product is one of the key factors that can affect the customers’ preferences linking to the motivation to buy the product, especially in the case of a consumer electronic product such as a mobile phone. The relationship between the external shape and the customer preferences needs to be studied to enhance the customer’s purchase desire and action. In this research, a design for customer preferences model is developed for investigating the relationships between the external shape and the customer preferences of a product. In the first stage, the names of the geometric features are collected and evaluated from the data of the specified internet web pages using the developed text miner. The key geometric features can be determined if the number of occurrence on the web pages is relatively high. For each key geometric feature, the numerical values are explored using the text miner to collect the internet data from the web pages. In the second stage, a cluster analysis model is developed to evaluate the numerical values of the key geometric features to divide the external shapes into several groups. Several design suggestion cases can be proposed, for example, large model, mid-size model, and mini model, for designing a mobile phone. A customer preference index is developed by evaluating the numerical data of each of the key geometric features of the design suggestion cases. The design suggestion case with the top ranking of the customer preference index can be selected as the final design of the product. In this paper, an example product of a notebook computer is illustrated. It shows that the external shape of a product can be used to drive customer preferences. The presented design for customer preferences model is useful for determining a suitable external shape of the product to increase customer preferences.

Keywords: cluster analysis, customer preferences, design evaluation, design for customer preferences, product design

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Authors: Zhou Hong, Gu Xiao-Qing, Lıu Hong-Jiao, Leng Jing

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Seamless learning is becoming a research hotspot in recent years, and the emerging of micro-lectures, flipped classroom has strengthened the development of seamless learning. Based on the characteristics of the seamless learning across time and space and the course structure of the flipped classroom, and the theories of language learning, we put forward the language learning model which can support ‘seamless flipped’ environment (abbreviated as ‘S-F’). Meanwhile, the characteristics of the ‘S-F’ learning environment, the corresponding framework construction and the activity design of diversified corpora were introduced. Moreover, a language learning app named ‘Daily Speaking’ was developed to facilitate the practice of the language learning model in ‘S-F’ environment. In virtue of the learning case of Shanghai language, the rationality and feasibility of this framework were examined, expecting to provide a reference for the design of ‘S-F’ learning in different situations.

Keywords: seamless learning, flipped classroom, seamless-flipped environment, language learning model

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Authors: Jen-Te Pai, Jao-Heng Liu, Shin-En Pai

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The impact of climate change has intensified in recent years, causing Taiwan to face higher frequency and serious natural disasters. Therefore, it is imperative for industrial parks manufacturers to promote adaptation policies in response to climate change. On the other hand, with the rise of the international anti-terrorism situation, once a terrorist attack occurs, it will attract domestic and international media attention, especially the strategic and economic status of the science park. Thus, it is necessary to formulate adaptation and mitigation strategies under climate change and social economic disasters. After reviewed the literature about climate change, urban disaster prevention, vulnerability assessment, and risk communication, the study selected 62 industrial parks compiled by the Industrial Bureau of the Ministry of Economic Affairs of Taiwan as the research object. This study explored the vulnerability and disaster prevention and disaster relief functional assessment of these industrial parks facing of natural and socio-economic disasters. Furthermore, this study explored planned adaptation of industrial parks management section and autonomous adaptation of corporate institutions in the park. The conclusion of this study is that Taiwan industrial parks with a higher vulnerability to natural and socio-economic disasters should employ positive adaptive behaviours.

Keywords: adaptive behaviours, analytic network process, vulnerability, industrial parks

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Authors: Wenwen Liu, Robert Burton, Simon McKeown

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Climate change is seriously threatening human security and development, leading to global warming and economic, political, and social chaos. Many artists have created visual responses that challenge perceptions on climate change, actively guiding people to think about the climate issues and potential crises after urban industrialization and explore positive solutions. This project is an interdisciplinary and intertextual study where art practice is informed by culture, philosophy, psychology, ecology, and science. By correlating theory and artistic practice, it studies how art practice creates a new way of understanding climate issues and uses art as a way of exploring speculative futures. In the context of practical-based research, arts-based practice as research and creative practice as interdisciplinary research are applied alternately to seek the original solution and new knowledge. Through creative art practice, this project has established new visual ways of looking at climate change and has developed it into a new model to generate more possibilities, an alternative social imagination. It not only encourages people to think and find a sustainable speculative future conducive to all species but also proves that people have the ability to realize positive futures.

Keywords: climate change, creative practice as interdisciplinary research, arts-based practice as research, creative art practice, speculative future

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Authors: Hassnen M. Jafer, Khalid S. Hashim, W. Atherton, Ali W. Alattabi

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This study investigates the effect of two important parameters (length of curing period and percentage of the added binder) on the strength of soil treated with OPC. An intermediate plasticity silty clayey soil with medium organic content was used in this study. This soft soil was treated with different percentages of a commercially available cement type 32.5-N. laboratory experiments were carried out on the soil treated with 0, 1.5, 3, 6, 9, and 12% OPC by the dry weight to determine the effect of OPC on the compaction parameters, consistency limits, and the compressive strength. Unconfined compressive strength (UCS) test was carried out on cement-treated specimens after exposing them to different curing periods (1, 3, 7, 14, 28, and 90 days). The results of UCS test were used to develop a non-linear multi-regression model to find the relationship between the predicted and the measured maximum compressive strength of the treated soil (qu). The results indicated that there was a significant improvement in the index of plasticity (IP) by treating with OPC; IP was decreased from 20.2 to 14.1 by using 12% of OPC; this percentage was enough to increase the UCS of the treated soil up to 1362 kPa after 90 days of curing. With respect to the statistical model of the predicted qu, the results showed that the regression coefficients (R2) was equal to 0.8534 which indicates a good reproducibility for the constructed model.

Keywords: cement admixtures, soft soil stabilisation, geotechnical parameters, multi-regression model

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Authors: Noora Al Muftah, Reda Rawi, Richard Thompson, Halima Bensmail

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Clinical responses to anticancer therapies are often restricted to a subset of patients. In some cases, mutated cancer genes are potent biomarkers of response to targeted agents. There is an urgent need to identify biomarkers that predict which patients with are most likely to respond to treatment. Systematic efforts to correlate tumor mutational data with biologic dependencies may facilitate the translation of somatic mutation catalogs into meaningful biomarkers for patient stratification. To identify genomic features associated with drug sensitivity and uncover new biomarkers of sensitivity and resistance to cancer therapeutics, we have screened and integrated a panel of several hundred cancer cell lines from different databases, mutation, DNA copy number, and gene expression data for hundreds of cell lines with their responses to targeted and cytotoxic therapies with drugs under clinical and preclinical investigation. We found mutated cancer genes were associated with cellular response to most currently available Glioma cancer drugs and some frequently mutated genes were associated with sensitivity to a broad range of therapeutic agents. By linking drug activity to the functional complexity of cancer genomes, systematic pharmacogenomic profiling in cancer cell lines provides a powerful biomarker discovery platform to guide rational cancer therapeutic strategies.

Keywords: cancer, gene network, Lasso, penalized regression, P-values, unbiased estimator

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Authors: Sonia Besbes, Mahmoud El Hajem, Habib Ben Aissia, Jean Yves Champagne, Jacques Jay

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In this work, we present a computational study for the characterization of the flow in a rectangular bubble column. To simulate the dynamic characteristics of the flow, a three-dimensional transient numerical simulations based on a coupled discrete phase model (DPM) and Volume of Fluid (VOF) model are performed. Modeling of bubble column reactor is often carried out under the assumption of a flat liquid surface with a degassing boundary condition. However, the dynamic behavior of the top surface surmounting the liquid phase will to some extent influence the meandering oscillations of the bubble plume. Therefore it is important to capture the surface behavior, and the assumption of a flat surface may not be applicable. So, the modeling approach needs to account for a dynamic liquid surface induced by the rising bubble plume. The volume of fluid (VOF) model was applied for the liquid and top gas which both interacts with bubbles implemented with a discrete phase model. This model treats the bubbles as Lagrangian particles and the liquid and the top gas as Eulerian phases with a sharp interface. Two-way coupling between Eulerian phases and Lagrangian bubbles are accounted for in a single set continuous phase momentum equation for the mixture of the two Eulerian phases. The effect of gas flow rate on the dynamic and time-averaged flow properties was studied. The time averaged liquid velocity field predicted from simulations and from our previous PIV measurements shows that the liquid is entrained up flow in the wake of the bubbles and down flow near the walls. The simulated and measured vertical velocity profiles exhibit a reasonable agreement looking at the minimum velocity values near the walls and the maximum values at the column center.

Keywords: bubble column, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), coupled DPM and VOF model, hydrodynamics

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Authors: Jae-Young Lee, Woo-Young Jung, Myeong-Jun Nam

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Water hammer is a hydraulic transient problem which is commonly encountered in the penstocks of hydropower plants. The numerical model was developed to estimate the transient behavior of pressure waves in pipe systems. The computational algorithm was proposed to model the water hammer phenomenon in a pipe system with pump shutdown at midstream and sudden valve closure at downstream. To predict the pressure head and flow velocity as a function of time as a result of rapidly closing a valve and pump shutdown, two boundary conditions at the ends considering pump operation and valve control can be implemented as specified equations of the pressure head and flow velocity based on the characteristics method. It was shown that the effects of transient flow make it determine the needs for protection devices, such as surge tanks, surge relief valves, or air valves, at various points in the system against overpressure and low pressure. It produced reasonably good performance with the results of the proposed transient model for pipeline systems. The proposed numerical model can be used as an efficient tool for the safety assessment of hydropower plants due to water hammer.

Keywords: water hammer, hydraulic transient, pipe systems, characteristics method

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Authors: Muluken Z. Getie, Francois Lanzetta, Sylvie Begot, Bimrew T. Admassu

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This study is aimed at the numerical analysis of the effects of phase angle and losses (shuttle heat loss and gas leakage to the crankcase) that could have an impact on the pressure and temperature of working fluid for a β-type Stirling cycle refrigerating machine. First, the developed numerical model incorporates into the ideal adiabatic analysis, the shuttle heat transfer (heat loss from compression space to expansion space), and gas leakage from the working space to the buffer space into the crankcase. The other losses that may not have a direct effect on the temperature and pressure of working fluid are simply incorporated in a simple analysis. The model is then validated by reversing the model to the engine model and compared with other literature results using (GPU-3) engine. After validating the model with other engine model and experiment results, analysis of the effect of phase angle, shuttle heat lose and gas leakage on temperature, pressure, and performance (power requirement, cooling capacity and coefficient of performance) of refrigerating machine considering the FEMTO 60 Stirling engine as a case study have been conducted. Shuttle heat loss has a greater effect on the temperature of working gas; gas leakage to the crankcase has more effect on the pressure of working spaces and hence both have a considerable impact on the performance of the Stirling cycle refrigerating machine. The optimum coefficient of performance exists between phase angles of 900-950, and optimum cooling capacity could be found between phase angles of 950-980.

Keywords: beta configuration, engine model, moderate cooling, stirling refrigerator, and validation

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Authors: Bandar Alahmadi, Lethia Jackson

Abstract:

Machine Learning model is used today in many real-life applications. The safety and security of such model is important, so the results of the model are as accurate as possible. One challenge of machine learning model security is the adversarial examples attack. Adversarial examples are designed by the attacker to cause the machine learning model to misclassify the input. We propose a method to generate adversarial examples to attack image classifiers. We are modifying the successfully classified images, so a classifier misclassifies them after the modification. In our method, we do not update the whole image, but instead we detect the important region, modify it, place it back to the original image, and then run it through a classifier. The algorithm modifies the detected region using two methods. First, it will add abstract image matrix on back of the detected image matrix. Then, it will perform a rotation attack to rotate the detected region around its axes, and embed the trace of image in image background. Finally, the attacked region is placed in its original position, from where it was removed, and a smoothing filter is applied to smooth the background with foreground. We test our method in cascade classifier, and the algorithm is efficient, the classifier confident has dropped to almost zero. We also try it in CNN (Convolutional neural network) with higher setting and the algorithm was successfully worked.

Keywords: adversarial examples, attack, computer vision, image processing

Procedia PDF Downloads 339

Authors: Federica Di Marcantonio, Antoine Leblois, Wolfgang Göbel, Hervè Kerdiles

Abstract:

Weather-related shocks can threaten the ability of farmers to maintain their agricultural output and food security levels. Informal coping mechanisms (i.e. migration or community risk sharing) have always played a significant role in mitigating the negative effects of weather-related shocks in Ethiopia, but they have been found to be an incomplete strategy, particularly as a response to covariate shocks. Particularly, as an alternative to the traditional risk pooling products, an innovative form of insurance known as Index-based Insurance has received a lot of attention from researchers and international organizations, leading to an increased number of pilot initiatives in many countries. Despite the potential benefit of the product in protecting the livelihoods of farmers and pastoralists against climate shocks, to date there has been an unexpectedly low uptake. Using information from current pilot projects on index-based insurance in Ethiopia, this paper discusses the determinants of uptake that have so far undermined the scaling-up of the products, by focusing in particular on weather data availability, price affordability and willingness to pay. We found that, aside from data constraint issues, high price elasticity and low willingness to pay represent impediments to the development of the market. These results, bring us to rethink the role of index insurance as products for enhancing smallholders’ response to covariate shocks, and particularly for improving their food security.

Keywords: index-based insurance, willingness to pay, satellite information, Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 405

Authors: Saeedeh Ahmadi Basir, Mohammad Mahdavi Mazdeh, Mohammad Namakshenas

Abstract:

Manufacturers often dispatch jobs in batches to reduce delivery costs. However, sending several jobs in batches can have a negative effect on other scheduling-related objective functions such as minimizing the number of tardy jobs which is often used to rate managers’ performance in many manufacturing environments. This paper aims to minimize the number of weighted tardy jobs and the sum of delivery costs of a two-stage assembly flow-shop problem in a batch delivery system. We present a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model to solve the problem. As this is an MILP model, the commercial solver (the CPLEX solver) is not guaranteed to find the optimal solution for large-size problems at a reasonable amount of time. We present several numerical examples to confirm the accuracy of the model.

Keywords: scheduling, two-stage assembly flow-shop, tardy jobs, batched delivery system

Procedia PDF Downloads 460

Authors: Ofelia Loani Elvir Lazo, Roya Yumul, Sevan Komshian, Ruby Wang, Jun Tang

Abstract:

Background: Monitoring the anti-nociceptive drug effect is useful because a sudden and strong nociceptive stimulus may result in untoward autonomic responses and muscular reflex movements. Monitoring the anti-nociceptive effects of perioperative medications has long been desiredas a way to provide anesthesiologists information regarding a patient’s level of antinociception and preclude any untoward autonomic responses and reflexive muscular movements from painful stimuli intraoperatively.To this end, electroencephalogram (EEG) based tools includingBIS and qCON were designed to provide information about the depth of sedation whileqNOXwas produced to informon the degree of antinociception.The goal of this study was to compare the reliability of qCON/qNOX to BIS asspecific indicators of response to nociceptive stimulation. Methods: Sixty-two patients undergoing general anesthesia with LMA were included in this study. Institutional Review Board(IRB) approval was obtained, and informed consent was acquired prior to patient enrollment. Inclusion criteria included American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) class I-III, 18 to 80 years of age, and either gender. Exclusion criteria included the inability to consent. Withdrawal criteria included conversion to endotracheal tube and EEG malfunction. BIS and qCON/qNOX electrodes were simultaneously placed o62n all patientsprior to induction of anesthesia and were monitored throughout the case, along with other perioperative data, including patient response to noxious stimuli. All intraoperative decisions were made by the primary anesthesiologist without influence from qCON/qNOX. Student’s t-distribution, prediction probability (PK), and ANOVA were used to statistically compare the relative ability to detect nociceptive stimuli for each index. Twenty patients were included for the preliminary analysis. Results: A comparison of overall intraoperative BIS, qCON and qNOX indices demonstrated no significant difference between the three measures (N=62, p> 0.05). Meanwhile, index values for qNOX (62±18) were significantly higher than those for BIS (46±14) and qCON (54±19) immediately preceding patient responses to nociceptive stimulation in a preliminary analysis (N=20, * p= 0.0408). Notably, certain hemodynamic measurements demonstrated a significant increase in response to painful stimuli (MAP increased from74±13 mm Hg at baseline to 84± 18 mm Hg during noxious stimuli [p= 0.032] and HR from 76±12 BPM at baseline to 80±13BPM during noxious stimuli[p=0.078] respectively). Conclusion: In this observational study, BIS and qCON/qNOX provided comparable information on patients’ level of sedation throughout the course of an anesthetic. Meanwhile, increases in qNOX values demonstrated a superior correlation to an imminent response to stimulation relative to all other indices.

Keywords: antinociception, bispectral index (BIS), general anesthesia, laryngeal mask airway, qCON/qNOX

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Kasirga Yildirak, Ismail Gur

Abstract:

We propose a model to measure hail risk of an Agricultural Insurance portfolio. Hail is one of the major catastrophic event that causes big amount of loss to an insurer. Moreover, it is very hard to predict due to its strange atmospheric characteristics. We make use of parcel based claims data on apricot damage collected by the Turkish Agricultural Insurance Pool (TARSIM). As our ultimate aim is to compute the loadings assigned to specific parcels, we build a portfolio risk model that makes use of PD and the severity of the exposures. PD is computed by Spherical-Linear and Circular –Linear regression models as the data carries coordinate information and seasonality. Severity is mapped into integer brackets so that Probability Generation Function could be employed. Individual regressions are run on each clusters estimated on different criteria. Loss distribution is constructed by Panjer Recursion technique. We also show that one risk-one crop model can easily be extended to the multi risk–multi crop model by assuming conditional independency.

Keywords: hail insurance, spherical regression, circular regression, spherical clustering

Procedia PDF Downloads 251