Search results for: cumulative exposure model

Authors: A. Y. Mukhtar, J. B. Munyakazi, R. Ouifki

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Over the past few decades, the unprecedented increase in mobility has raised considerable concern about the relationship between mobility and vector-borne diseases and malaria in particular. Thus, one can claim that human mobility is one of the contributing factors to the resurgence of malaria. To assess human mobility on malaria burden among hosts, we formulate a movement-based model on a network of patches. We then extend human multi-group SEIAR deterministic epidemic models into a system of stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Our quantitative stochastic model which is expressed in terms of average rates of movement between compartments is fitted to time-series data (weekly malaria data of 2011 for each patch) using the maximum likelihood approach. Using the metapopulation (multi-group) model, we compute and analyze the basic reproduction number. The result shows that human movement is sufficient to preserve malaria disease firmness in the patches with the low transmission. With these results, we concluded that the sensitivity of malaria to the human mobility is turning to be greatly important over the implications of future malaria control in South Sudan.

Keywords: basic reproduction number, malaria, maximum likelihood, movement, stochastic model

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Authors: Grzegorz Baranski, Piotr Kacejko, Konrad Pietrykowski, Mariusz Duk

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This paper discusses a model of a bus-driving scheme. Rapid changes in speed result in a constantly changing kinetic energy accumulated in a bus mass and an increased fuel consumption due to hardly recuperated kinetic energy. The model is based on the results achieved from chassis dynamometer, airport and city street researches. The verified model was applied to simulate the mechanical energy recuperation during the Japanese JE05 Emission Test Cycle. The simulations were performed for several values of vehicle mass. The research results show that fuel economy is impacted by kinetic energy recuperation.

Keywords: heavy duty vehicle, city bus, Japanese JE05 test cycle, kinetic energy, simulations

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Authors: Liudmila Garzanova, Lidia Ananyeva, Olga Koneva, Olga Ovsyannikova, Oxana Desinova, Mayya Starovoytova, Rushana Shayahmetova, Anna Khelkovskaya-Sergeeva

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Objectives: The duration of the disease could be one of the leading factors in the effectiveness of therapy in systemic sclerosis (SSc). The aim of the study was to assess how the duration of the disease affects the changes of lung function in patients(pts) with interstitial lung disease (ILD) associated with SSc during long-term RTX therapy. Methods: We prospectively included 113pts with SSc in this study. 85% of pts were female. Mean age was 48.1±13years. The diffuse cutaneous subset of the disease had 62pts, limited–40, overlap–11. The mean disease duration was 6.1±5.4years. Pts were divided into 2 groups depending on the disease duration - group 1 (less than 5 years-63pts) and group 2 (more than 5 years-50 pts). All pts received prednisolone at mean dose of 11.5±4.6 mg/day and 53 of them - immunosuppressants at inclusion. The parameters were evaluated over the periods: at baseline (point 0), 13±2.3mo (point 1), 42±14mo (point 2) and 79±6.5mo (point 3) after initiation of RTX therapy. Cumulative mean dose of RTX in group 1 at point 1 was 1.7±0.6 g, at point 2 = 3.3±1.5g, at point 3 = 3.9±2.3g; in group 2 at point 1 = 1.6±0.6g, at point 2 = 2.7±1.5 g, at point 3 = 3.7±2.6 g. The results are presented in the form of mean values, delta(Δ), median(me), upper and lower quartile. Results. There was a significant increase of forced vital capacity % predicted (FVC) in both groups, but at points 1 and 2 the improvement was more significant in group 1. In group 2, an improvement of FVC was noted with a longer follow-up. Diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide % predicted (DLCO) remained stable at point 1, and then significantly improved by the 3rd year of RTX therapy in both groups. In group 1 at point 1: ΔFVC was 4.7 (me=4; [-1.8;12.3])%, ΔDLCO = -1.2 (me=-0.3; [-5.3;3.6])%, at point 2: ΔFVC = 9.4 (me=7.1; [1;16])%, ΔDLCO =3.7 (me=4.6; [-4.8;10])%, at point 3: ΔFVC = 13 (me=13.4; [2.3;25.8])%, ΔDLCO = 2.3 (me=1.6; [-5.6;11.5])%. In group 2 at point 1: ΔFVC = 3.4 (me=2.3; [-0.8;7.9])%, ΔDLCO = 1.5 (me=1.5; [-1.9;4.9])%; at point 2: ΔFVC = 7.6 (me=8.2; [0;12.6])%, ΔDLCO = 3.5 (me=0.7; [-1.6;10.7]) %; at point 3: ΔFVC = 13.2 (me=10.4; [2.8;15.4])%, ΔDLCO = 3.6 (me=1.7; [-2.4;9.2])%. Conclusion: Patients with an early SSc have more quick response to RTX therapy already in 1 year of follow-up. Patients with a disease duration more than 5 years also have response to therapy, but with longer treatment. RTX is effective option for the treatment of ILD-SSc, regardless of the duration of the disease.

Keywords: interstitial lung disease, systemic sclerosis, rituximab, disease duration

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Authors: Suraj Mehrotra

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The stock market is a volatile, bustling marketplace that is a cornerstone of economics. It defines whether companies are successful or in spiral. A thorough understanding of it is important - many companies have whole divisions dedicated to analysis of both their stock and of rivaling companies. Linking the world of finance and artificial intelligence (AI), especially the stock market, has been a relatively recent development. Predicting how stocks will do considering all external factors and previous data has always been a human task. With the help of AI, however, machine learning models can help us make more complete predictions in financial trends. Taking a look at the stock market specifically, predicting the open, closing, high, and low prices for the next day is very hard to do. Machine learning makes this task a lot easier. A model that builds upon itself that takes in external factors as weights can predict trends far into the future. When used effectively, new doors can be opened up in the business and finance world, and companies can make better and more complete decisions. This paper explores the various techniques used in the prediction of stock prices, from traditional statistical methods to deep learning and neural networks based approaches, among other methods. It provides a detailed analysis of the techniques and also explores the challenges in predictive analysis. For the accuracy of the testing set, taking a look at four different models - linear regression, neural network, decision tree, and naïve Bayes - on the different stocks, Apple, Google, Tesla, Amazon, United Healthcare, Exxon Mobil, J.P. Morgan & Chase, and Johnson & Johnson, the naïve Bayes model and linear regression models worked best. For the testing set, the naïve Bayes model had the highest accuracy along with the linear regression model, followed by the neural network model and then the decision tree model. The training set had similar results except for the fact that the decision tree model was perfect with complete accuracy in its predictions, which makes sense. This means that the decision tree model likely overfitted the training set when used for the testing set.

Keywords: machine learning, testing set, artificial intelligence, stock analysis

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Authors: Surya Prasad Sharma, Suyash Katdare, Syed Ainul Hussain

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Human-induced factors contributed to the population decline of crocodylians in India which became evident by the mid-20th century when authorities forewarned the extinction risk for the crocodile and proposed regulation in the crocodile trade. The proposed action led to the enactment of national and international wildlife regulations to prohibit the trade-in of crocodile skins and parts. Subsequently, conservation translocation programs were initiated to restore the species in the wild through a 'head-start' approach. In India, the crocodile conservation program, which began in the early 1970s, has been one of India's longest-running conservation initiatives. The gharial (Gavialis gangeticus) population has benefitted, and the gharial number increased rapidly owing to these efforts. The immediate risk of extinction was averted as the gharial has recovered due to decades-long cumulative conservation efforts, the consideration of the genetic for monitoring the recovery of the recovered populations is still lacking. Hence, we assessed the genetic diversity of the Girwa gharial population in India using six polymorphic nuclear microsatellites loci and mitochondrial control region. The number of alleles per loci ranged between 2 to 5, and the allelic richness (Ar) was 2.67 ± 0.49, and the observed (Ho) and expected (He) heterozygosities were 0.42 ± 0.08 and 0.42 ± 0.09, respectively. The M-ratio yielded a value of (0.41 ± 0.16) lower than critical M, suggesting a genetic bottleneck in the Girwa population. We observed more mitochondrial control region haplotypes in the Girwa population than previously reported in the largest gharial population in the Chambal River. Overall, our study indicates that genetic diversity remains low despite the recovery in the Girwa population. Hence, we recommend a range-wide genetic assessment of gharial populations using high-throughput techniques to identify the source population and plan future translocation programs.

Keywords: conservation translocation, recovery, crocodile, bottleneck

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Authors: H. A. Algahtani, A. S. Khan, O. Alzahrani, N. Hussein, M. A. Khan, Loudhi Y. I. Soliman

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Objective: To report on the Saudi experience (developing country) of neurological complications from bariatric surgery. The literature on the subject is reviewed. Method: This is a cross sectional study done in King Abdul Aziz Medical City Jeddah, WR, where we reviewed all charts of the patients who underwent bariatric surgery between January 1st, 2009 to December 31st , 2014. Personal and clinical data including age, sex, BMI, comorbidities, type of procedure, duration of stay in hospital, complications and postoperative follow up were collected. In addition follow up visit and remote complication if present were collected. All patients with neurological complications were reviewed in details including their clinical examination, laboratory and imaging results, treatment and prognosis. This report is essentially descriptive with no statistical analysis performed. Results: Fifteen cases were collected in this study (3%). Axonal polyneuropathy was the most frequent neurological complica¬tion, but cases of Wernicke syndrome, vitamin B12 deficiency, Guillain-Barre syndrome and cupper deficiency were also identified. Fourteen patients (93.3%) had full recovery from the neurological signs and symptoms but unfortunately one patient died. Conclusion: Bariatric surgery, a procedure that is continuously increasing in popularity, is not free of potential neurological complications. A clear education, guidelines and follow-up program should be planned and practiced. Facts should be clearly presented to the individual undergoing this type of surgery. Although a clear cause-effect relation cannot be established for the present cases, the cumulative literature on the subject makes it important to warn the patient of the potential risks of this procedure.

Keywords: bariatric surgery, neurological complications, neuropathy, Wenicke syndrome

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Authors: J. Daniel Sanchez Ruiz

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The paper explains why and how a research criterion was included within an accreditation system for undergraduate engineering programs, in spite of not being a common practice of accreditation agencies at a global level. This paper is divided into three parts. The first presents the context and the motivations that led the Institute for Quality and Accreditation of Computing, Engineering and Technology Programs (ICACIT) to add a research criterion. The second describes the criterion adopted and the feedback received during 2017 accreditation cycle. The third, the author proposes changes to the accreditation criteria that respond in a pertinent way to the results-based accreditation model and the national context. The author seeks to reconcile an outcome based accreditation model, aligned with the established by the International Engineering Alliance, with the particular context of higher education in Peru.

Keywords: accreditation, engineering education, quality assurance, research

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Authors: Pramod K. Prabhakar, Prem P. Srivastav

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Rohu (Labeo rohita) is an Indian major carp and highly relished freshwater food for its unique flavor, texture, and culinary properties. It is highly perishable and, spoilage occurs as a result of series of complicated biochemical changes brought about by enzymes which are the function of time and storage temperature also. The influence of storage temperature (5, 0, and -5 °C) on colour and texture of fish were studied during 14 days storage period in order to analyze kinetics of colour and textural changes. The rate of total colour change was most noticeable at the highest storage temperature (5°C), and these changes were well described by the first order reaction. Texture is an important variable of quality of the fish and is increasing concern to aquaculture industries. Textural parameters such as hardness, toughness and stiffness were evaluated on a texture analyzer for the different day of stored fish. The significant reduction (P ≤ 0.05) in hardness was observed after 2nd, 4th and 8th day for the fish stored at 5, 0, and -5 °C respectively. The textural changes of fish during storage followed a first order kinetic model and fitted well with this model (R2 > 0.95). However, the textural data with respect to time was also fitted to modified Maxwell model and found to be good fit with R2 value ranges from 0.96 to 0.98. Temperature dependence of colour and texture change was adequately modelled with the Arrhenius type equation. This fitted model may be used for the determination of shelf life of Rohu Rohu (Labeo rohita) Fish.

Keywords: first order kinetics, biochemical changes, Maxwell model, colour, texture, Arrhenius type equation

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Authors: Simiso Fisokuhle Nyandeni

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Climate change has turned out to be a pandemic that has drawn the attention of many countries’ households around the globe, especially those whose livelihood and economic status depend on agricultural productivity. Hence, the agricultural sector is regarded as the sector that is most dependent on climate conditions for its productivity/harvest, yet in recent years this sector has been experiencing drought. However, adaptation seems to be a tool that every farmer looks upon as a solution to their challenges as their productivity keeps on being vulnerable to climate effects. Thus, exposure/access to the market seems to be a major challenge that faces especially small-scale farmers. We, therefore, examine the small-scale farmers’ constraints or challenges towards getting access to the market for them to get proper sales of their farming products. As a result, the adaptation capacity of every farm household varies on the financial status.

Keywords: climate change, small-scale farming, agriculture sector, adaptation

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Authors: Stefano M. Spagocci

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The efficiency of photovoltaic panels can be calculated with such software packages as RETScreen that allow design engineers to take financial as well as technical considerations into account. RETScreen is interfaced with meteorological databases, so that efficiency calculations can be realistically carried out. The author has recently contributed to the development of solar modules with accumulation capability and an embedded water purifier, aimed at off-grid users such as users in developing countries. The software packages examined do not allow to take ancillary equipment into account, hence the decision to implement a technical and financial model of the system. The author realized that, rather than re-implementing the quite sophisticated model of RETScreen - a mathematical description of which is anyway not publicly available - it was possible to drastically simplify it, including the meteorological factors which, in RETScreen, are presented in a numerical form. The day-by-day efficiency of a photovoltaic solar panel was parametrized by the product of factors expressing, respectively, daytime duration, solar right ascension motion, solar declination motion, cloudiness, temperature. For the sun-motion-dependent factors, positional astronomy formulae, simplified by the author, were employed. Meteorology-dependent factors were fitted by simple trigonometric functions, employing numerical data supplied by RETScreen. The accuracy of our model was tested by comparing it to the predictions of RETScreen; the accuracy obtained was 11%. In conclusion, our study resulted in a model that can be easily implemented in a spreadsheet - thus being easily manageable by non-specialist personnel - or in more sophisticated software packages. The model was used in a number of design exercises, concerning photovoltaic solar panels and ancillary equipment like the above-mentioned water purifier.

Keywords: clean energy, energy engineering, mathematical modelling, photovoltaic panels, solar energy

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Authors: Peter Fedichev

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We studied fundamental aspects of aging to develop a mathematical model of gene regulatory network. We show that aging manifests itself as an inherent instability of gene network leading to exponential accumulation of regulatory errors with age. To validate our approach we studied age-dependent omic data such as transcriptomes, metabolomes etc. of different model organisms and humans. We build a computational platform based on our model to identify the targets and biomarkers of aging to design new drugs against aging and age-related diseases. As biomarkers of aging, we choose the rate of aging and the biological age since they completely determine the state of the organism. Since rate of aging rapidly changes in response to an external stress, this kind of biomarker can be useful as a tool for quantitative efficacy assessment of drugs, their combinations, dose optimization, chronic toxicity estimate, personalized therapies selection, clinical endpoints achievement (within clinical research), and death risk assessments. According to our model, we propose a method for targets identification for further interventions against aging and age-related diseases. Being a biotech company, we offer a complete pipeline to develop an anti-aging drug-candidate.

Keywords: aging, longevity, biomarkers, senescence

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Authors: Dinku Seyoum Zeleke, Rong Fung Huang, Ching Min Hsu

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Comparison of flow and mixing characteristics between non-oscillating jet and transversely oscillating jet was investigated experimentally. Flow evolution process was detected by using high-speed digital camera, and jet spread width was calculated using binary edge detection techniques by using the long-exposure images. The velocity characteristics of transversely oscillating jet induced by a V-shaped fluidic oscillator were measured using single component hot-wire anemometer. The jet spread width of non-oscillating jet was much smaller than the jet exit gap because of behaving natural jet behaviors. However, the transversely oscillating jet has a larger jet spread width, which was associated with the excitation of the flow by self-induced oscillation. As a result, the flow mixing characteristics desperately improved both near-field and far-field. Therefore, this transversely oscillating jet has a better turbulence intensity, entrainment, and spreading width so that it augments flow-mixing characteristics desperately.

Keywords: flow mixing, transversely oscillating, spreading width, velocity characteristics

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Authors: Ajayi Olusola Olajide, Alonge Olaide Moses

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Predicting the outcome of soccer matches poses an interesting challenge for which it is realistically impossible to successfully do so for every match. Despite this, there are lots of resources that are being expended on the correct prediction of soccer matches weekly, and all over the world. Soccer Match Result Prediction System Model (SMRPSM) is a system that is proposed whereby the results of matches between two soccer teams are auto-generated, with the added excitement of giving users a chance to test their predictive abilities. Soccer teams from different league football are loaded by the application, with each team’s corresponding manager and other information like team location, team logo and nickname. The user is also allowed to interact with the system by selecting the match to be predicted and viewing of the results of completed matches after registering/logging in.

Keywords: predicting, soccer match, outcome, soccer, matches, result prediction, system, model

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Authors: Mohamed Hafid, Marcel Lacroix

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This study aimed at developing an inverse heat transfer approach for predicting the time-varying freezing front and the temperature distribution of tumors during cryosurgery. Using a temperature probe pressed against the layer of tumor, the inverse approach is able to predict simultaneously the metabolic heat generation and the blood perfusion rate of the tumor. Once these parameters are predicted, the temperature-field and time-varying freezing fronts are determined with the direct model. The direct model rests on one-dimensional Pennes bioheat equation. The phase change problem is handled with the enthalpy method. The Levenberg-Marquardt Method (LMM) combined to the Broyden Method (BM) is used to solve the inverse model. The effect (a) of the thermal properties of the diseased tissues; (b) of the initial guesses for the unknown thermal properties; (c) of the data capture frequency; and (d) of the noise on the recorded temperatures is examined. It is shown that the proposed inverse approach remains accurate for all the cases investigated.

Keywords: cryosurgery, inverse heat transfer, Levenberg-Marquardt method, thermal properties, Pennes model, enthalpy method

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Authors: Lei Zhou, Dan Li, Ruiqi Ren, Chao Li, Yali Wang, Daxin Ni, Zijian Feng, Timothy M. Uyeki, Qun Li

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Since the first human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus were identified in early 2013, 1533 cases of laboratory-confirmed A(H7N9) virus infections were reported and confirmed as of September 13, 2017. The fifth epidemic was defined as starting from September 1, 2016, and the number of A(H7N9) cases has surged since the end of December in 2016. On February 18, 2017, the A(H7N9) cases who were infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus was reported from Southern China. The HPAI A(H7N9) cases were identified and then an investigation and analyses were conducted to assess whether disease severity in humans has changed with HPAI A(H7N9) compared with low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) A(H7N9) virus infection. Methods: All confirmed cases with A(H7N9) virus infections reported throughout mainland China from September 1, 2016, to September 13, 2017, were included. Cases' information was extracted from field investigation reports and the notifiable infectious surveillance system to describe the demographic, clinical, and epidemiologic characteristics. Descriptive statistics were used to compare HPAI A(H7N9) cases with all LPAI A(H7N9) cases reported during the fifth epidemic. Results: A total of 27 cases of HPAI A(H7N9) virus were identified infection from five provinces, including Guangxi (44%), Guangdong (33%), Hunan (15%), Hebei (4%) and Shangxi (4%). The median age of cases of HPAI A(H7N9) virus infection was 60 years (range, 15 to 80) and most of them were male (59%) and lived in rural areas (78%). All 27 cases had live poultry related exposures within 10 days before their illness onset. In comparison with LPAI A(H7N9) case-patients, HPAI A(H7N9) case-patients were significantly more likely to live in rural areas (78% vs. 51%; p = 0.006), have exposure to the sick or dead poultry (56% vs. 19%; p = 0.000), and be hospitalized earlier (median 3 vs. 4 days; p = 0.007). No significant differences were observed in median age, sex, prevalence of underlying chronic medical conditions, median time from illness onset to first medical service seeking, starting antiviral treatment, and diagnosis. Although the median time from illness onset to death (9 vs. 13 days) was shorter and the overall case-fatality proportion (48% vs. 38%) was higher for HPAI A(H7N9) case-patients than for LPAI A(H7N9) case-patients, these differences were not statistically significant. Conclusions: Our findings indicate that HPAI A(H7N9) virus infection was associated with exposure to sick and dead poultry in rural areas when visited live poultry market or in the backyard. In the fifth epidemic in mainland China, HPAI A (H7N9) case-patients were hospitalized earlier than LPAI A(H7N9) case-patients. Although the difference was not statistically significant, the mortality of HPAI A (H7N9) case-patients was obviously higher than that of LPAI A(H7N9) case-patients, indicating a potential severity change of HPAI A(H7N9) virus infection.

Keywords: Avian influenza A (H7N9) virus, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), case-patients, poultry

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Authors: Chih-Hua Chang

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This study uses a three-dimensional (3D) fully nonlinear model to simulate the wave generation problem caused by the movement of the seabed. The numerical model is first simplified into two dimensions and then compared with the existing two-dimensional (2D) experimental data and the 2D numerical results of other shallow-water wave models. Results show that this model is different from the earlier shallow-water wave models, with the phase being closer to the experimental results of wave propagation. The results of this study are also compared with those of the 3D experimental results of other researchers. Satisfactory results can be obtained in both the waveform and the flow field. This study assesses the application of the model to simulate the wave caused by the circular (radius r0) terrain rising or falling (moving distance bm). The influence of wave-making parameters r0 and bm are discussed. This study determines that small-range (e.g., r0 = 2, normalized by the static water depth), rising, or sinking terrain will produce significant wave groups in the far field. For large-scale moving terrain (e.g., r0 = 10), uplift and deformation will potentially generate the leading solitary-like waves in the far field.

Keywords: seismic wave, wave generation, far-field waves, seabed deformation

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Authors: Mouna Abarkan, Abdelillah Byou, Nacer M'Sirdi, El Hossain Abarkan

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This paper presents the estimation of the state of charge of the battery using two types of observers. The battery model used is the combination of a voltage source, which is the open circuit battery voltage of a strength corresponding to the connection of resistors and electrolyte and a series of parallel RC circuits representing charge transfer phenomena and diffusion. An adaptive observer applied to this model is proposed, this observer to estimate the battery state of charge of the battery is based on EFK and sliding mode that is known for their robustness and simplicity implementation. The results are validated by simulation under MATLAB/Simulink and implemented in Arduino-LabView.

Keywords: model of the battery, adaptive sliding mode observer, the EFK observer, estimation of state of charge, SOC, implementation in Arduino/LabView

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Authors: Yves Lacroix, Van Van Than, Didier Léandri, Pierre Liardet

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The western Tombolo of the Giens peninsula in southern France, known as Almanarre beach, is subject to coastal erosion. We are trying to use computer simulation in order to propose solutions to stop this erosion. Our aim was first to determine the main factors for this erosion and successfully apply a coupled hydro-sedimentological numerical model based on observations and measurements that have been performed on the site for decades. We have gathered all available information and data about waves, winds, currents, tides, bathymetry, coastal line, and sediments concerning the site. These have been divided into two sets: one devoted to calibrating a numerical model using Mike 21 software, the other to serve as a reference in order to numerically compare the present situation to what it could be if we implemented different types of underwater constructions. This paper presents the first part of the study: selecting and melting different sources into a coherent data basis, identifying the main erosion factors, and calibrating the coupled software model against the selected reference period. Our results bring calibration of the numerical model with good fitting coefficients. They also show that the winter South-Western storm events conjugated to depressive weather conditions constitute a major factor of erosion, mainly due to wave impact in the northern part of the Almanarre beach. Together, current and wind impact is shown negligible.

Keywords: Almanarre beach, coastal erosion, hydro-sedimentological, numerical model

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Authors: Sandip Mitra

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Studies on Governance and Accountability has often stressed the need to release Data in public domain to increase transparency ,which otherwise act as an evidence of performance. However, inefficient handling, lack of capacity and the dynamics of transfers (especially fund transfers) are important issues which need appropriate attention. E-Governance alone can not serve as a measure of transparency as long as a comprehensive planning is instituted. Studies on Governance and public exposure has often triggered public opinion in favour or against any government. The root of the problem (especially in local governments) lies in the management of the governance. The participation of the people in the local government functioning, the networks within and outside the locality, synergy with various layers of Government are crucial in understanding the activities of any government. Unfortunately, data on such issues are not released in the public domain .If they are at all released , the extraction of information is often hindered for complicated designs. A Study has been undertaken with a few local Governments in India. The data has been analysed to substantiate the views.

Keywords: accountability, e-governance, transparency, local government

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Authors: Ibrahim M. Elmojtaba, Rayan M. Altayeb

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Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a vector-borne disease caused by the protozoa parasite of the genus leishmania. The transmission of the parasite to humans and animals occurs via the bite of adult female sandflies previously infected by biting and sucking blood of an infectious humans or animals. In this paper we use a previously proposed model, and then applied two optimal controls, namely treatment and vaccination to that model to investigate optimal strategies for controlling the spread of the disease using treatment and vaccination as the system control variables. The possible impact of using combinations of the two controls, either one at a time or two at a time on the spread of the disease is also examined. Our results provide a framework for vaccination and treatment strategies to reduce susceptible and infection individuals of VL in five years.

Keywords: visceral leishmaniasis, treatment, vaccination, optimal control, numerical simulation

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Authors: Mukhtar Raban

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As part of Nelson Mandela University’s journey of repositioning its learning and teaching agenda, the university adopted and foregrounded a humanizing pedagogy-aligning with institutional goals of critically transforming the academic project. The university established the Humanizing Pedagogy Praxis and Research Niche (HPPRN) as a centralized hub for coordinating institutional work exploring and advancing humanizing pedagogies and tasked the unit with developing and enacting a model for humanizing pedagogy exploration. This investigation endeavored to report on the development and enactment of a model that sought to institutionalize a humanizing pedagogy at a South African university. Having followed a qualitative approach, the investigation presents the case study of Nelson Mandela University’s HPPRN and the model it subsequently established and enacted for the advancement towards a more common institutional understanding, interpretation and application of the humanizing pedagogy. The study adopted an interpretive lens for analysis, complementing the qualitative approach of the investigation. The primary challenge that confronted the HPPRN was the development of a ‘living model’ that had to complement existing institutional initiatives while accommodating a renewed spirit of critical reflection, innovation and research of continued and new humanizing pedagogical exploration and applications. The study found that the explicit consideration of tenets of humanizing and critical pedagogies in underpinning and framing the HPPRN Model contributed to the sense of ‘lived’ humanizing pedagogy experiences during enactment. The multi-leveled inclusion of critical reflection in the development and enactment stages was found to further the processes of praxis employed at the university, which is integral to the advancement of humanizing and critical pedagogies. The development and implementation of a model that seeks to institutionalize the humanizing pedagogy at a university rely not only on sound theoretical conceptualization but also on the ‘richness of becoming more human’ explicitly expressed and encountered in praxes and application.

Keywords: humanizing pedagogy, critical pedagogy, institutional implementation, praxis

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Authors: Ayman M. Mansour, Bilal Hawashin, Hesham Alsalem

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Faster delivery of laboratory test results is one of the most noticeable signs of good laboratory service and is often used as a key performance indicator of laboratory performance. Despite the availability of technology, the delivery time of clinical laboratory test results continues to be a cause of customer dissatisfaction which makes patients feel frustrated and they became careless to get their laboratory test results. The Medical Clinical Laboratory test results are highly sensitive and could harm patients especially with the severe case if they deliver in wrong time. Such results affect the treatment done by physicians if arrived at correct time efforts should, therefore, be made to ensure faster delivery of lab test results by utilizing new trusted, Robust and fast system. In this paper, we proposed a distributed Multi-Agent System to enhance and faster the process of laboratory test results delivery using SMS. The developed system relies on SMS messages because of the wide availability of GSM network comparing to the other network. The software provides the capability of knowledge sharing between different units and different laboratory medical centers. The system was built using java programming. To implement the proposed system we had many possible techniques. One of these is to use the peer-to-peer (P2P) model, where all the peers are treated equally and the service is distributed among all the peers of the network. However, for the pure P2P model, it is difficult to maintain the coherence of the network, discover new peers and ensure security. Also, security is a quite important issue since each node is allowed to join the network without any control mechanism. We thus take the hybrid P2P model, a model between the Client/Server model and the pure P2P model using GSM technology through SMS messages. This model satisfies our need. A GUI has been developed to provide the laboratory staff with the simple and easy way to interact with the system. This system provides quick response rate and the decision is faster than the manual methods. This will save patients life.

Keywords: multi-agent system, delivery process, GSM technology, clinical laboratory results

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Authors: Maria Bercea, Monica Diana Olteanu

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Investigation of polymer systems able to change inside of the body into networks represent an attractive approach, especially when there is a minimally invasive and patient friendly administration. Pharmaceutical formulations based on Pluronic F127 [poly (oxyethylene) (PEO) blocks (70%) and poly(oxypropylene) (PPO) blocks (30%)] present an excellent potential as drug delivery systems. The use of Pluronic F127 alone as gel-forming solution is limited by some characteristics, such as poor mechanical properties, short residence time, high permeability, etc. Investigation of the interactions between the natural and synthetic polymers and surfactants in solution is a subject of great interest from both scientific and practical point of view. As for example, formulations based on Pluronics and chitosan could be used to obtain dual phase transition hydrogels responsive to temperature and pH changes. In this study, different materials were prepared by using poly(vinyl alcohol), chitosan solutions mixed with aqueous solutions of Pluronic F127. The rheological properties of different formulations were investigated in temperature sweep experiments as well as at a constant temperature of 37oC for exploring in-situ gel formation in the human body conditions. In addition, some viscometric investigations were carried out in order to understand the interactions which determine the complex behaviour of these systems. Correlation between the thermodynamic and rheological parameters and phase separation phenomena observed for the investigated systems allowed the dissemination the constitutive response of polymeric materials at different external stimuli, such as temperature and pH. The rheological investigation demonstrated that the viscoelastic moduli of the hydrogels can be tuned depending on concentration of different components as well as pH and temperature conditions and cumulative contributions can be obtained.

Keywords: hydrogel, polymer mixture, stimuli responsive, biomedical applications

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Authors: Ryan D. Martinus

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Inflammation of the endothelium is an important process leading to diabetic atherosclerosis. However, the molecular mechanisms by which diabetes contributes to endothelial inflammation remain to be established. Using In-vitro cultured Human cells and Hsp60 specific ELISA assays, we show that Hsp60 is not only induced in Human monocyte cells under hyperglycaemic conditions but that the Hsp60 is also secreted from these cells. Furthermore, we also demonstrate that the Hsp60 secreted from these monocyte cells is also able to activate Toll-like receptor-4 (TLR4) from Human endothelial cells. This suggests that a potential link may exist between the hyperglycaemia-induced expression of Hsp60 in monocyte cells and vascular inflammation. Circulating levels of Hsp60 due to mitochondrial stress in diabetes patients could, therefore, be an important modulator of inflammation in endothelial cells and thus contribute to the increased incidences of atherosclerosis in diabetes mellitus.

Keywords: mitochondria, Hsp60, inflammation, diabetes mellitus

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Authors: Yijun Shao, Yan Cheng, Rashmee U. Shah, Charlene R. Weir, Bruce E. Bray, Qing Zeng-Treitler

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Deep neural network (DNN) models are being explored in the clinical domain, following the recent success in other domains such as image recognition. For clinical adoption, outcome prediction models require explanation, but due to the multiple non-linear inner transformations, DNN models are viewed by many as a black box. In this study, we developed a deep neural network model for predicting 1-year mortality of patients who underwent major cardio vascular procedures (MCVPs), using temporal image representation of past medical history as input. The dataset was obtained from the electronic medical data warehouse administered by Veteran Affairs Information and Computing Infrastructure (VINCI). We identified 21,355 veterans who had their first MCVP in 2014. Features for prediction included demographics, diagnoses, procedures, medication orders, hospitalizations, and frailty measures extracted from clinical notes. Temporal variables were created based on the patient history data in the 2-year window prior to the index MCVP. A temporal image was created based on these variables for each individual patient. To generate the explanation for the DNN model, we defined a new concept called impact score, based on the presence/value of clinical conditions’ impact on the predicted outcome. Like (log) odds ratio reported by the logistic regression (LR) model, impact scores are continuous variables intended to shed light on the black box model. For comparison, a logistic regression model was fitted on the same dataset. In our cohort, about 6.8% of patients died within one year. The prediction of the DNN model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 78.5% while the LR model achieved an AUC of 74.6%. A strong but not perfect correlation was found between the aggregated impact scores and the log odds ratios (Spearman’s rho = 0.74), which helped validate our explanation.

Keywords: deep neural network, temporal data, prediction, frailty, logistic regression model

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Authors: Nader Ghareeb, Rüdiger Schmidt

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Minimizing the weight in flexible structures means reducing material and costs as well. However, these structures could become prone to vibrations. Attenuating these vibrations has become a pivotal engineering problem that shifted the focus of many research endeavors. One technique to do that is to design and implement an active control system. This system is mainly composed of a vibrating structure, a sensor to perceive the vibrations, an actuator to counteract the influence of disturbances, and finally a controller to generate the appropriate control signals. In this work, two different techniques are explored to create two different mathematical models of an active control system. The first model is a finite element model with a reduced number of nodes and it is called a super-element. The second model is in the form of state-space representation, i.e. a set of partial differential equations. The damping coefficients are calculated and incorporated into both models. The effectiveness of these models is demonstrated when the system is excited by its first natural frequency and an active control strategy is developed and implemented to attenuate the resulting vibrations. Results from both modeling techniques are presented and compared.

Keywords: damping coefficients, finite element analysis, super-element, state-space model

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Authors: J. X. Dong, C. J. An, Z. Chen, E. H. Owens, M. C. Boufadel, E. Taylor, K. Lee

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Shorelines are vulnerable to significant environmental impacts from oil spills. Stranded oil can cause potential short- to long-term detrimental effects along beaches that include injuries to the ecosystem, socio-economic and cultural resources. In this study, a three-dimensional (3D) numerical modeling approach is developed to evaluate the fate and transport of spilled oil for hypothetical oiled shoreline cases under various combinations of beach geomorphology and environmental conditions. The developed model estimates the spatial and temporal distribution of spilled oil for the various test conditions, using the finite volume method and considering the physical transport (dispersion and advection), sinks, and sorption processes. The model includes a user-friendly interface for data input on variables such as beach properties, environmental conditions, and physical-chemical properties of spilled oil. An experimental mesoscale tank design was used to test the developed model for dissolved petroleum hydrocarbon within shorelines. The simulated results for effects of different sediment substrates, oil types, and shoreline features for the transport of spilled oil are comparable to those obtained with a commercially available model. Results show that the properties of substrates and the oil removal by shoreline effects have significant impacts on oil transport in the beach area. Sensitivity analysis, through the application of the one-step-at-a-time method (OAT), for the 3D model identified hydraulic conductivity as the most sensitive parameter. The 3D numerical model allows users to examine the behavior of oil on and within beaches, assess potential environmental impacts, and provide technical support for decisions related to shoreline clean-up operations.

Keywords: dissolved petroleum hydrocarbons, environmental multimedia model, finite volume method, sensitivity analysis, total petroleum hydrocarbons

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Authors: Amogh Katti, J. Sai Asritha, D. Nivedh, M. Kalyan Srinivas, B. Somnath Chakravarthi

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Today's modern education system uses Learning Management System (LMS) portals for the scoring and grading of student performances, to maintain student records, and teachers are instructed to accept assignments through online submissions of .pdf,.doc,.ppt, etc. There is a risk of data tampering in the traditional portals; we will apply the Blockchain model instead of this traditional model to avoid data tampering and also provide a decentralized mechanism for overall fairness. Blockchain technology is a better and also recommended model because of the following features: consensus mechanism, decentralized system, cryptographic encryption, smart contracts, Ethereum blockchain. The proposed system ensures data integrity and tamper-proof assignment submission and grading, which will be helpful for both students and also educators.

Keywords: education technology, learning management system, decentralized applications, blockchain

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Authors: Ignitia Motjolopane

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Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) play an important role in economies by contributing to economic growth and employment. In the fourth industrial revolution, the convergence of technologies and the changing nature of work created pressures on economies globally. Generative artificial intelligence (AI) may support SMEs in exploring, exploiting, and transforming business models to align with their growth aspirations. SMEs' growth aspirations fall into four categories: subsistence, income, growth, and speculative. Subsistence-oriented firms focus on meeting basic financial obligations and show less motivation for business model innovation. SMEs focused on income, growth, and speculation are more likely to pursue business model innovation to support growth strategies. SMEs' strategic goals link to distinct business model innovation paths depending on whether SMEs are starting a new business, pursuing growth, or seeking profitability. Integrating generative artificial intelligence in start-up SME business model innovation enhances value creation, user-oriented innovation, and SMEs' ability to adapt to dynamic changes in the business environment. The existing literature may lack comprehensive frameworks and guidelines for effectively integrating generative AI in start-up reiterative business model innovation paths. This paper examines start-up business model innovation path with generative artificial intelligence. A theoretical approach is used to examine start-up-focused SME reiterative business model innovation path with generative AI. Articulating how generative AI may be used to support SMEs to systematically and cyclically build the business model covering most or all business model components and analyse and test the BM's viability throughout the process. As such, the paper explores generative AI usage in market exploration. Moreover, market exploration poses unique challenges for start-ups compared to established companies due to a lack of extensive customer data, sales history, and market knowledge. Furthermore, the paper examines the use of generative AI in developing and testing viable value propositions and business models. In addition, the paper looks into identifying and selecting partners with generative AI support. Selecting the right partners is crucial for start-ups and may significantly impact success. The paper will examine generative AI usage in choosing the right information technology, funding process, revenue model determination, and stress testing business models. Stress testing business models validate strong and weak points by applying scenarios and evaluating the robustness of individual business model components and the interrelation between components. Thus, the stress testing business model may address these uncertainties, as misalignment between an organisation and its environment has been recognised as the leading cause of company failure. Generative AI may be used to generate business model stress-testing scenarios. The paper is expected to make a theoretical and practical contribution to theory and approaches in crafting a robust business model innovation path with generative artificial intelligence in start-up SMEs.

Keywords: business models, innovation, generative AI, small medium enterprises

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Authors: Prashant Motwani, Arghadeep Laskar

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The transfer of prestress force from prestressing strands to the surrounding concrete is dependent on the bond between the two materials. It is essential to understand the actual bond stress distribution along the transfer length to determine the transfer zone in pre-tensioned concrete. A 3-D nonlinear finite element model has been developed to simulate the transfer of prestress force from steel to concrete in pre-tensioned bridge girders through thermal strain technique using commercially available package ABAQUS. Full-scale bridge girder has been analyzed with thermal strain approach where the damage plasticity constitutive model has been used to model concrete. Parameters such as concrete strain, effective prestress, upward camber and longitudinal stress have been compared with analytical results. The discrepancy between numerical and analytical values was within 20%. The paper also presents a convergence study on mesh density and aspect ratio of the elements to perform the finite element study.

Keywords: aspect ratio, bridge girder, centre of gravity of strand, mesh density, finite element model, pretensioned bridge girder

Procedia PDF Downloads 243