Search results for: research evaluation

Authors: Paula Costa, Ana Picado, Filomena Pinto, Justina Catarino

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Environmental impact associated with large scale shale gas development is of major concern to the public, policy makers and other stakeholders. To assess this impact on the atmosphere, it is important to monitoring ambient air quality prior to and during all shale gas operation stages. Baseline observations can provide a standard of the pre-shale gas development state of the environment. The lack of baseline concentrations was identified as an important knowledge gap to assess the impact of emissions to the air due to shale gas operations. In fact baseline monitoring of air quality are missing in several regions, where there is a strong possibility of future shale gas exploration. This makes it difficult to properly identify, quantify and characterize environmental impacts that may be associated with shale gas development. The implementation of a baseline air monitoring program is imperative to be able to assess the total emissions related with shale gas operations. In fact, any monitoring programme should be designed to provide indicative information on background levels. A baseline air monitoring program should identify and characterize targeted air pollutants, most frequently described from monitoring and emission measurements, as well as those expected from hydraulic fracturing activities, and establish ambient air conditions prior to start-up of potential emission sources from shale gas operations. This program has to be planned for at least one year accounting for ambient variations. In the literature, in addition to GHG emissions of CH4, CO2 and nitrogen oxides (NOx), fugitive emissions from shale gas production can release volatile organic compounds (VOCs), aldehydes (formaldehyde, acetaldehyde) and hazardous air pollutants (HAPs). The VOCs include a.o., benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes, hexanes, 2,2,4-trimethylpentane, styrene. The concentrations of six air pollutants (ozone, particulate matter (PM), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulphur oxides (SOx), and lead) whose regional ambient air levels are regulated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are often discussed. However, the main concern in the emissions to air associated to shale gas operations, seems to be the leakage of methane. Methane is identified as a compound of major concern due to its strong global warming potential. The identification of methane leakage from shale gas activities is complex due to the existence of several other CH4 sources (e.g. landfill, agricultural activity or gas pipeline/compressor station). An integrated monitoring study of methane emissions may be a suitable mean of distinguishing the contribution of different sources of methane to ambient levels. All data analysis needs to be carefully interpreted taking, also, into account the meteorological conditions of the site. This may require the implementation of a more intensive monitoring programme. So, it is essential the development of a low-cost sampling strategy, suitable for establishing pre-operations baseline data as well as an integrated monitoring program to assess the emissions from shale gas operation sites. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 640715.

Keywords: air emissions, baseline, green house gases, shale gas

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Authors: Dianelys Vega, Carlos Magluta, Ney Roitman

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The simulation of loads induced by walking people in civil engineering structures is still challenging It has been the focus of considerable research worldwide in the recent decades due to increasing number of reported vibration problems in pedestrian structures. One of the most important key in the designing of slender structures is the Human-Structure Interaction (HSI). How moving people interact with structures and the effect it has on their dynamic responses is still not well understood. To rely on calibrated pedestrian models that accurately estimate the structural response becomes extremely important. However, because of the complexity of the pedestrian mechanisms, there are still some gaps in knowledge and more reliable models need to be investigated. On this topic several authors have proposed biodynamic models to represent the pedestrian, whether these models provide a consistent approximation to physical reality still needs to be studied. Therefore, this work comes to contribute to a better understanding of this phenomenon bringing an experimental validation of a pedestrian walking model and a Human-Structure Interaction model. In this study, a bi-dimensional bipedal walking model was used to represent the pedestrians along with an interaction model which was applied to a prototype footbridge. Numerical models were implemented in MATLAB. In parallel, experimental tests were conducted in the Structures Laboratory of COPPE (LabEst), at Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. Different test subjects were asked to walk at different walking speeds over instrumented force platforms to measure the walking force and an accelerometer was placed at the waist of each subject to measure the acceleration of the center of mass at the same time. By fitting the step force and the center of mass acceleration through successive numerical simulations, the model parameters are estimated. In addition, experimental data of a walking pedestrian on a flexible structure was used to validate the interaction model presented, through the comparison of the measured and simulated structural response at mid span. It was found that the pedestrian model was able to adequately reproduce the ground reaction force and the center of mass acceleration for normal and slow walking speeds, being less efficient for faster speeds. Numerical simulations showed that biomechanical parameters such as leg stiffness and damping affect the ground reaction force, and the higher the walking speed the greater the leg length of the model. Besides, the interaction model was also capable to estimate with good approximation the structural response, that remained in the same order of magnitude as the measured response. Some differences in frequency spectra were observed, which are presumed to be due to the perfectly periodic loading representation, neglecting intra-subject variabilities. In conclusion, this work showed that the bipedal walking model could be used to represent walking pedestrians since it was efficient to reproduce the center of mass movement and ground reaction forces produced by humans. Furthermore, although more experimental validations are required, the interaction model also seems to be a useful framework to estimate the dynamic response of structures under loads induced by walking pedestrians.

Keywords: biodynamic models, bipedal walking models, human induced loads, human structure interaction

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Authors: B. Umaru Mohammed, Faris A. Al-Maziad, Mohammad Y. Numan

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One of the most important factors affecting the energy performance within a building is a carefully and efficiently designed facade. The primary aim of this research was to identify and present the potentiality of utilising Double-Skin Facade (DSF) construction and critically examine its effect on the energy consumption of an office building located within a maritime desert climate as to the conventional single-skin curtain wall system. A comparative analysis of the effect on the overall energy consumption within an office building was investigated in which a combination of various Double-Skin Facade configurations, systems, and cavity depths, glazing types and orientations were utilised. A computer dynamic modelling was utilised in order to ensure accurate calculations and efficient simulations of the various DSF systems due to the complex nature of the various functions within the Facade cavity. Through the use of the dynamic thermal modelling simulations, the best cavity size glazed type and orientation were determined to lead to a detailed analysis of the efficiency of each respective combination of Double-Skin Facade construction. As such the optimal facade combination for use within an office building located in a maritime desert climate was identified. Results demonstrated that a multi-story Facade, depending on its configuration, save up to 5% on annual cooling loads respect to a Corridor Facade and while vented can save unto 12% when compared to the single skin façade, on annual cooling load in the maritime desert climate. The selected configuration of the DSF from SSF saves an overall annual cooling load of 32%.A comparative analysis of the effect on the overall energy consumption within an office building was investigated in which a combination of various Double-Skin Facade configurations, systems, and cavity depths, glazing types and orientations were utilized. A computer dynamic modelling was utilized in order to ensure accurate calculations and efficient simulations of the various DSF systems due to the complex nature of the various functions within the Facade cavity. Through the use of the dynamic thermal modelling simulations, the best cavity size glazed type and orientation were determined to lead to a detailed analysis of the efficiency of each respective combination of Double-Skin Facade construction. As such the optimal facade combination for use within an office building located in a maritime desert climate was identified. Results demonstrated that a multi-story Facade, depending on its configuration, save up to 5% on annual cooling loads respect to a Corridor Facade and while vented can save unto 12% when compared to the single skin facade, on annual cooling load in the maritime desert climate. The selected configuration of the DSF from SSF saves an overall annual cooling load of 32%.

Keywords: computer dynamics modelling, comparative analysis, energy computation, double skin facade, single skin curtain wall, maritime desert climate

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Authors: Richard Mababu Mukiur

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Leadership is an important drive that plays a key role in the success and development of organizations, particularly in the current context of digital transformation, highly competitivity and globalization. Leaders are persons that hold a dominant and privileged position within an organization, field, or sector of activities and are able to manage, motivate and exercise a high degree of influence over other in order to achieve the institutional goals. They achieve commitment and engagement of others to embrace change, and to make good decisions. Leadership studies in higher education institutions have examined how effective leaders hold their organizations, and also to find approaches which fit best in the organizations context for its better management, transformation and improvement. Moreover, recent studies have highlighted the impact of leadership styles on organizational performance and innovation capacities, since some styles give better results than others. Effective leadership is part of learning process that take place through day-to-day tasks, responsibilities, and experiences that influence the organizational performance, innovation and engagement of employees. The adoption of appropriate leadership styles can improve organization results and encourage learning process, team skills and performance, and employees' motivation and engagement. In the case of case of Information Technology sector, leadership styles are particularly crucial since this sector is leading relevant changes and transformations in the knowledge society. In this context, the main objective of this study is to analyze managers leadership styles with their relation to organizational performance and innovation that may be mediated by learning organization process and demographic variables. Therefore, it was hypothesized that the transformational and transactional leadership will be the main style adopted in Information Technology sector and will influence organizational performance and innovation capacity. A sample of 540 participants from Information technology sector has been determined in order to achieve the objective of this study. The Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire was administered as the principal instrument, Scale of innovation and Learning Organization Questionnaire. Correlations and multiple regression analysis have been used as the main techniques of data analysis. The findings indicate that leadership styles have a relevant impact on organizational performance and innovation capacity. The transformational and transactional leadership are predominant styles in Information technology sector. The effective leadership style tend to be characterized by the capacity of generating and sharing knowledge that improve organization performance and innovation capacity. Managers are adopting and adapting their leadership styles that respond to the new organizational, social and cultural challenges and realities of contemporary society. Managers who encourage innovation, foster learning process, share experience are useful to the organization since they contribute to its development and transformation. Learning process capacity and demographic variables (age, gender, and job tenure) mediate the relationship between leadership styles, innovation capacity and organizational performance. The transformational and transactional leadership tend to enhance the organizational performance due to their significant impact on team-building, employees' engagement and satisfaction. Some practical implications and future lines of research have been proposed.

Keywords: leadership styles, tranformational leadership, organisational performance, organisational innovation

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Authors: Henry Okechukwu Onyeiwu

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The role of media in the transformation of contemporary Nigeria's democracies is multifaceted and profoundly impactful. As Nigeria navigates its complex socio-political landscape, media serves as both a catalyst for democratic engagement and a platform for public discourse. This paper explores the various dimensions through which media influences democracy in Nigeria, including its role in informing citizens, shaping public opinion, and providing a forum for diverse voices. The increasing penetration of social media has revolutionized the political sphere, empowering citizens to participate in governance and hold leaders accountable. However, challenges such as misinformation, censorship, and media bias continue to pose significant threats to democratic integrity. This study critically analyzes the interplay between traditional and new media, highlighting their contributions to electoral processes, civic education, and advocacy for human rights. Ultimately, the findings illustrate that while media is a crucial agent for democratic transformation, its potential can only be realized through a commitment to journalistic integrity and the promotion of media literacy among the Nigerian populace. The media plays a critical role in shaping public democracies in Nigeria, yet it faces a myriad of challenges that hinder its effectiveness. This paper examines the various obstacles confronting media broadcasting in Nigeria, which range from political interference and censorship to issues of professionalism and the proliferation of fake news. Political interference is particularly pronounced, as government entities and political actors often attempt to control narratives, compromising the independence of media outlets. This control often manifests in the form of censorship, where journalists face threats and harassment for reporting on sensitive topics related to governance, corruption, and human rights abuses. Moreover, the rapid rise of social media has introduced a dual challenge; while it offers a platform for citizen engagement and diverse viewpoints, it also facilitates the spread of misinformation and propaganda. The lack of media literacy among the populace exacerbates this issue, as citizens often struggle to discern credible information from false narratives. Additionally, economic constraints deeply affect the sustainability and independence of many broadcasting organizations. Advertisers may unduly influence content, leading to sensationalism over substantive reporting. This paper argues that for media to effectively contribute to Nigerian public democracies, there needs to be a concerted effort to address these challenges. Strengthening journalistic ethics, enhancing regulatory frameworks, and promoting media literacy among citizens are essential steps in fostering a more vibrant and accountable media landscape. Ultimately, this research underscores the necessity of a resilient media ecosystem that can truly support democratic processes, empower citizens, and hold power to account in contemporary Nigeria.

Keywords: media, democracy, socio-political, governance

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Authors: Miyoko Taniguchi

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Conflict and violence have prevailed over the last four decades in conflict-affected areas in Muslim Mindanao, despite the signing of several peace agreements between the Philippine government and Islamic separatist insurgents (the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)), and peacebuilding activities on the ground. In the meantime, the peace talks had been facilitated and mediated by international actors such as the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and its member countries such as Indonesia, and Malaysia, and Japan. In 2014, both the Government of the Philippines (GPH) and the MILF finally reached a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CAB) in 2014 under the Aquino III administration, though a Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) based on the CAB was not enacted at the Catholic-majority of the Philippine Congress. After a long process of deliberations at the Congress, Republic Act 11054, known as the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL), was enacted in 2018 under the Duterate administration. In the beginning, President Duterte adopted an 'inclusive approach' that involves the MILF, all factions of the MNLF, non-Islamized indigenous peoples, and other influential clan leaders to align all peace processes under a single Bangsamoro peace process. A notable difference from past administrations, there is an explicit recognition of all agreements and legislations based on the rights of each stakeholder. This created a new identity as 'Bangsamoro', the residents of Muslim Mindanao, enhancing political legitimacy. Besides, it should be noted an important role of 'insider mediators' -a platform for the Bangsamoro from diverse sectors attempting to work within their respective organizations in Moro society. Give the above background, this paper aims at probing the effectiveness of insider mediation as one of the alternative approaches for mediation in the peace process. For the objectives, this research uses qualitative methods such as process-tracing and semi-structured interviews from diverse groups of stakeholders at from the state to the regional level, including the government officials involved in peace process under the Presidential Office, rebels (MILF and MNLF), civil society organizations involved in lobbying and facilitating peace process, especially in the legislative process. The key outcomes and findings are that the Insider Mediators Group, formed in 2016, had taken on a significant role in facilitating the achievement of a wider consensus among stakeholders on major Moro issues such as BBL’s passing during the last administration to call for unity among the Bangsamoro. Most of its members are well-educated professionals affiliated with the MILF, the MNLF, and influential clans. One of the group’s biggest achievements has been the lobbying and provision of legal advice to legislators who were not necessarily knowledgeable about the peace process during the deliberation of the bicameral conference of the BBL, which eventually led to its passage. It can be concluded that in the long run, strengthening vertical and horizontal relations between the Moro society and the State and among the Moro peoples that can be viewed as a means to sustainable peace.

Keywords: insider mediation, Mindanao, peace process, Moro Islamic liberation front

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Authors: Vladimir Berezin, Andrey Bogoyavlenskiy, Pavel Alexyuk, Madina Alexyuk, Aizhan Turmagambetova, Irina Zaitseva, Nadezhda Sokolova, Elmira Omirtaeva

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Introduction: Triterpene saponins of plant origin are one of the most promising candidates for elaboration of novel adjuvants. Due to the combination of immunostimulating activity and the capacity interact with amphipathic molecules with formation of highly immunogenic nanocomplexes, triterpene saponins could serve as a good adjuvant/delivery system for vaccine use. In the research presented adjuvants on the base of nanocomplexes contained triterpene saponins isolated from Glycyrrhiza glabra and Saponaria officinalis plants indigenous to Kazakhstan were elaborated for influenza vaccine use. Methods: Purified triterpene saponins 'Glabilox' and 'SO1' with low toxicity and high immunostimulatory activity were isolated from plants Glycyrrhiza glabra L. and Saponaria officinalis L. by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and identified using electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS). Influenza virus A/St-Petersburg/5/09 (H1N1) propagated in 9-days old chicken embryos was concentrated and purified by centrifugation in sucrose gradient. Nanocomplexes contained lipids, and triterpene saponins Glabilox or SO1 were prepared by dialysis technique. Immunostimulating activity of experimental vaccine preparations was studied in vaccination/challenge experiments in mice. Results: Humoral and cellular immune responses and protection against influenza virus infection were examined after single subcutaneous and intranasal immunization. Mice were immunized subunit influenza vaccine (HA+NA) or whole virus inactivated influenza vaccine in doses 3.0/5.0/10.0 µg antigen/animal mixed with adjuvant in dose 15.0 µg/animal. Sera were taken 14-21 days following single immunization and mice challenged by A/St-Petersburg/5/09 influenza virus in dose 100 EID₅₀. Study of experimental influenza vaccine preparations in animal immunization experiments has shown that subcutaneous and intranasal immunization with subunit influenza vaccine mixed with nanocomplexes contained Glabilox or SO1 saponins stimulated high levels of humoral immune response (IgM, IgA, IgG1, IgG2a, and IgG2b antibody) and cellular immune response (IL-2, IL-4, IL-10, and IFN-γ cytokines) and resulted 80-90% protection against lethal influenza infection. Also, single intranasal and single subcutaneous immunization with whole virus inactivated influenza vaccine mixed with nanoparticulated adjuvants stimulated high levels of humoral and cellular immune responses and provided 100% protection against lethal influenza infection. Conclusion: The results of study have shown that nanocomplexes contained purified triterpene saponins Glabilox and SO1 isolated from plants indigenous to Kazakhstan can stimulate a broad spectrum of humoral and cellular immune responses and induce protection against lethal influenza infection. Both elaborated adjuvants are promising for incorporation to influenza vaccine intended for subcutaneous and intranasal routes of immunization.

Keywords: influenza vaccine, adjuvants, triterpene saponins, immunostimulating activity

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Authors: Susan C. Graham

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Authenticity has grown to be ubiquitous within the tourism vernacular. Yet, agreement regarding what authenticity means in relation to tourism remains nebulous. In its simplest form, authenticity in tourism refers to products and experiences that provide insights into the social, cultural, economic, natural, historical, and political life of a place. But this definition is unwieldy in its scope and may not help industry leaders nor tourist in identifying that which is authentic. Much of what is projected as authentic is a carefully curated and crafted message developed by marketers to appeal to visitors and bears little resemblance to the everyday lives of locals. So perhaps one way to identify authentic tourism experiences is to ask locals themselves. The purpose of this study was to explore the perspectives of locals with respect to what constituted an authentic tourism experience in Prince Edward Island (PEI), Canada. Over 600 volunteers in a tourism research panel were sent a survey asking them to describe authentic PEI experiences within ten sub-categories relevant to the local tourism industry. To make participation more manageable, each respondent was asked their perspectives on any three of the tourism sub-categories. Over 400 individuals responded, providing 1391 unique responses. The responses were grouped thematically using interpretive phenomenological analysis whereby the participants’ responses were clustered into higher order groups to extract meaning. Two interesting thematic observations emerged: first, that respondents tended to clearly articulate and differentiate between intra- versus interpersonal experiences as a means of authentically experiencing PEI; and second, while respondents explicitly valued unstaged experiences over staged, several exceptions to this general rule were expressed. Responses could clearly be grouped into those that emphasized “going off the beaten path,” “exploring pristine and untouched corners,” “lesser known,” “hidden”, “going solo,” and taking the opportunity to “slow down.” Each of these responses was “self” centered, and focused on the visitor discovering and exploring in search of greater self-awareness and inner peace. In contrast, other responses encouraged the interaction of visitors with locals as a means of experiencing the authentic place. Respondents sited “going deep-sea fishing” to learn about local fishers and their communities, stopping by “local farm stands” and speaking with farmers who worked the land for generations,” patronizing “local restaurants, pubs, and b&bs”, and partaking in performances or exhibits by local artists. These kinds of experiences, the respondents claimed, provide an authentic glimpse into a place’s character. The second set of observations focused on the distinction between staged and unstaged experiences, with respondents overwhelmingly advocating for unstaged. Responses were clear in shunning “touristy,” “packaged,” and “fake” offerings for being inauthentic and misrepresenting the place as locals view it. Yet many respondents made exceptions for certain “staged” experiences, including (quite literally) the stage production of Anne of Green Gables based on the novel of the same name, the theatrical re-enactment of the founding of Canada, and visits to PEI’s many provincial and national parks, all of which respondents considered both staged and authentic at the same time.

Keywords: authentic, local, Prince Edward Island, tourism

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Authors: Ali Reza Vaezi, Naser Fakori Ivand, Fereshteh Azarifam

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Interrill erosion is the detachment and transfer of soil particles between the rills due to the impact of raindrops and the shear stress of shallow surface runoff. This erosion can be affected by some soil properties such as texture, amount of organic matter and stability of soil aggregates. Information on the temporal variation of interrill erosion during a rainfall event and the effect soil properties have on it can help in understanding the process of runoff production and soil loss between the rills in hillslopes. The importance of this study is especially grate in semi-arid regions, where the soil is weakly aggregated and vegetation cover is mostly poor. Therefore, this research was conducted to investigate the temporal variation of surface flow and interrill erosion and the effect of soil properties on it in some semi-arid soils. A field experiment was done in eight different soil textures under simulated rainfalls with uniform intensity. A total of twenty four plots were installed for eight study soils with three replicates in the form of a random complete block design along the land. The plots were 1.2 m (length) × 1 m (width) in dimensions which designed with a distance of 3 m from each other across the slope. Then, soil samples were purred into the plots. The plots were surrounded by a galvanized sheet, and runoff and soil erosion equipment were placed at their outlets. Rainfall simulation experiments were done using a designed portable simulator with an intensity of 60 mm per hour for 60 minutes. A plastic cover was used around the rainfall simulator frame to prevent the impact of the wind on the free fall of water drops. Runoff production and soil loss were measured during 1 hour time with 5-min intervals. In order to study soil properties, such as particle size distribution, aggregate stability, bulk density, ESP and Ks were determined in the laboratory. Correlation and regression analysis was done to determine the effect of soil properties on runoff and interrill erosion. Results indicated that the study soils have lower booth organic matter content and aggregate stability. The soils, except for coarse textured textures, are calcareous and with relatively higher exchangeable sodium percentages (ESP). Runoff production and soil loss didn’t occur in sand, which was associated with higher infiltration and drainage rates. In other study soils, interrill erosion occurred simultaneously with the generation of runoff. A strong relationship was found between interrill erosion and surface runoff (R2 = 0.75, p< 0.01). The correlation analysis showed that surface runoff was significantly affected by some soil properties consisting of sand, silt, clay, bulk density, gravel, hydraulic conductivity (Ks), lime (calcium carbonate), and ESP. The soils with lower Ks such as fine-textured soils, produced higher surface runoff and more interrill erosion. In the soils, Surface runoff production temporally increased during rainfall and finally reached a peak after about 25-35 min. Time to peak was very short (30 min) in fine-textured soils, especially clay, which was related to their lower infiltration rate.

Keywords: erosion plot, rainfall simulator, soil properties, surface flow

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Authors: Tatiana G. Smirnova, Stan G. Benjamin

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Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) was a land-surface component in several generations of operational weather prediction models at the National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It was designed for short-range weather predictions with an emphasis on severe weather and originally was intentionally simple to avoid uncertainties from poorly known parameters. Nevertheless, the RUC LSM, when coupled with the hourly-assimilating atmospheric model, can produce a realistic evolution of time-varying soil moisture and temperature, as well as the evolution of snow cover on the ground surface. This result is possible only if the soil/vegetation/snow component of the coupled weather prediction model has sufficient skill to avoid long-term drift. RUC LSM was first implemented in the operational NCEP Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) weather model in 1998 and later in the Weather Research Forecasting Model (WRF)-based Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR). Being available to the international WRF community, it was implemented in operational weather models in Austria, New Zealand, and Switzerland. Based on the feedback from the US weather service offices and the international WRF community and also based on our own validation, RUC LSM has matured over the years. Also, a sea-ice module was added to RUC LSM for surface predictions over the Arctic sea-ice. Other modifications include refinements to the snow model and a more accurate specification of albedo, roughness length, and other surface properties. At present, RUC LSM is being tested in the regional application of the Unified Forecast System (UFS). The next generation UFS-based regional Rapid Refresh FV3 Standalone (RRFS) model will replace operational RAP and HRRR at NCEP. Over time, RUC LSM participated in several international model intercomparison projects to verify its skill using observed atmospheric forcing. The ESM-SnowMIP was the last of these experiments focused on the verification of snow models for open and forested regions. The simulations were performed for ten sites located in different climatic zones of the world forced with observed atmospheric conditions. While most of the 26 participating models have more sophisticated snow parameterizations than in RUC, RUC LSM got a high ranking in simulations of both snow water equivalent and surface temperature. However, ESM-SnowMIP experiment also revealed some issues in the RUC snow model, which will be addressed in this paper. One of them is the treatment of grid cells partially covered with snow. RUC snow module computes energy and moisture budgets of snow-covered and snow-free areas separately by aggregating the solutions at the end of each time step. Such treatment elevates the importance of computing in the model snow cover fraction. Improvements to the original simplistic threshold-based approach have been implemented and tested both offline and in the coupled weather model. The detailed description of changes to the snow cover fraction and other modifications to RUC soil and snow parameterizations will be described in this paper.

Keywords: land-surface models, weather prediction, hydrology, boundary-layer processes

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Authors: Hanan Badr, Fahad Manee, Rao Shashidhar, Omar Bayoumy

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Introduction: Hypertension is the major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and stroke and a universe leading cause of disability-adjusted life years and mortality. Adopting an unhealthy lifestyle is thought to be associated with developing hypertension regardless of predisposing genetic factors. This study aimed to examine the association between recreational physical activity (RPA), and sedentary behaviors with a risk of hypertension among ministry employees, where there is no role for occupational physical activity (PA), and to scrutinize participants’ time spent in RPA and sedentary behaviors on the working and weekend days. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among randomly selected 2562 employees working at ten randomly selected ministries in Kuwait. To have a representative sample, the proportional allocation technique was used to define the number of participants in each ministry. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data about participants' socio-demographic characteristics, health status, and their 24 hours’ time use during a regular working day and a weekend day. The time use covered a list of 20 different activities practiced by a person daily. The New Zealand Physical Activity Questionnaire-Short Form (NZPAQ-SF) was used to assess the level of RPA. The scale generates three categories according to the number of hours spent in RPA/week: relatively inactive, relatively active, and highly active. Gender-matched trained nurses performed anthropometric measurements (weight and height) and measuring blood pressure (two readings) using an automatic blood pressure monitor (95% accuracy level compared to a calibrated mercury sphygmomanometer). Results: Participants’ mean age was 35.3±8.4 years, with almost equal gender distribution. About 13% of the participants were smokers, and 75% were overweight. Almost 10% reported doctor-diagnosed hypertension. Among those who did not, the mean systolic blood pressure was 119.9±14.2 and the mean diastolic blood pressure was 80.9±7.3. Moreover, 73.9% of participants were relatively physically inactive and 18% were highly active. Mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure showed a significant inverse association with the level of RPA (means of blood pressure measures were: 123.3/82.8 among relatively inactive, 119.7/80.4 among relatively active, and 116.6/79.6 among highly active). Furthermore, RPA occupied 1.6% and 1.8% of working and weekend days, respectively, while sedentary behaviors (watching TV, using electronics for social media or entertaining, etc.) occupied 11.2% and 13.1%, respectively. Sedentary behaviors were significantly associated with high levels of systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Binary logistic regression revealed that physical inactivity (OR=3.13, 95% CI: 2.25-4.35) and sedentary behaviors (OR=2.25, CI: 1.45-3.17) were independent risk factors for high systolic and diastolic blood pressure after adjustment for other covariates. Conclusions: Physical inactivity and sedentary lifestyle were associated with a high risk of hypertension. Further research to examine the independent role of RPA in improving blood pressure levels and cultural and occupational barriers for practicing RPA are recommended. Policies should be enacted in promoting PA in the workplace that might help in decreasing the risk of hypertension among sedentary occupation workers.

Keywords: physical activity, sedentary behaviors, hypertension, workplace

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Authors: Emily Moskwa, Delene Weber, Jacob Arnold, Guy M. Robinson, Douglas K. Bardsley

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Management strategies to reduce the risks to human life and property from wildfire are key contemporary concerns, with a growing literature exploring these issues from a social research perspective. Efforts range from narrowly focused examinations, such as comparing the level of community support for vegetation clearance with that of controlled burning, to broader considerations of what constitutes effective fire management policy and education campaigns. However, little analysis is available that integrates the social component of risk mitigation and the influence of educational materials with the biodiversity conservation strategies so often needed in fire-prone ecosystems found on the periphery of urban areas. Indeed many communities living on the fringe of Australian cities face major issues relating to an increased risk of wildfire events and a decline in local biodiversity. Inadequate policy and planning, and a lack of awareness or information, exacerbate this risk. This has brought forward an emerging governance challenge that requires the mitigation of wildfire risk while simultaneously supporting improved conservation practices in these urban-fringe areas. Focusing on the perceptions and experiences of residents of the Lower Eyre Peninsula in South Australia, this study analyses data collected from a series of semi-structured interviews with landholders (n=20) living in rural and urban-fringe areas surrounding the city of Port Lincoln, a city with a growing population and one that has faced a number of very large fires in recent years. In South Australia, new policies have assigned increased responsibility on individual landholders to manage their land and prepare themselves for a wildfire event, potentially to the detriment of the surrounding native vegetation. Our findings indicate the value of gaining a more nuanced understanding of the perceptions and behaviours of landholders living in areas of high fire risk, who often choose to live there in order to be close to the natural environment. Many interviewees demonstrated a high awareness of wildfire risk as a result of their past experience with fire, and the majority considered themselves to be well-prepared in the event of a future fire. Community interactions and educational programs were found to be effective in raising awareness of risk; however, negative trust relationships with government authorities and low exposure to information concerning biodiversity resulted in an overall misunderstanding of the relationship between risk mitigation and biodiversity protection. The study offers insights into how catastrophic fires are reframing perceptions of what constitutes effective vegetation management. It provides recommendations to assist with the development of education strategies that concurrently address wildfire management and biodiversity conservation, and contribute towards environmentally-informed and risk conscious governance.

Keywords: biodiversity conservation, risk, peri-urban planning, wildfire management

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Authors: Andrés Quiroz, Emilio Hormazabal, Ana Mutis, Fernando Ortega, Manuel Chacón-Fuentes, Leonardo Parra

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Red clover (Trifolium pratense L.) is an important forage species in temperate regions of the world. The main limitation of this species worldwide is a lack of persistence related to the high mortality of plants due to a complex of biotic and abiotic factors, determining a life span of two or three seasons. Because of the importance of red clover in Chile, a red clover breeding program was started at INIA Carillanca Research Center in 1989, with the main objective of improving the survival of plants, forage yield, and persistence. The main selection criteria for selecting new varieties have been based on agronomical parameters and biotic factors. The main biotic factor associated with red clover mortality in Chile is Hylastinus obscurus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae). Both larval and adults feed on the roots, causing weakening and subsequent death of clover plants. Pesticides have not been successful for controlling infestations of this root borer. Therefore, alternative strategies for controlling this pest are a high priority for red clover producers. Currently, the role of semiochemical in the interaction between H. obscurus and red clover plants has been widely studied for our group. Specifically, from the red clover foliage has been identified limonene is eliciting repellency from the root borer. Limonene is generated in the plant from two independent biosynthetic pathways, the mevalonic acid, and deoxyxylulose pathway. Mevalonate pathway enzymes are localized in the cytosol, whereas the deoxyxylulose phosphate pathway enzymes are found in plastids. In summary, limonene can be determinated by enzymatic bioassay using GPP as substrate and by limonene synthase expression. Therefore, the main objective of this work was to study genetic variation of limonene in material provided by INIA´s Red Clover breeding program. Protein extraction was carried out homogenizing 250 mg of leave tissue and suspended in 6 mL of extraction buffer (PEG 1500, PVP-30, 20 mM MgCl2 and antioxidants) and stirred on ice for 20 min. After centrifugation, aliquots of 2.5 mL were desalted on PD-10 columns, resulting in a final volume of 3.5 mL. Protein determination was performed according to Bradford with BSA as a standard. Monoterpene synthase assays were performed with 50 µL of protein extracts transferred into gas-tight 2 mL crimp seal vials after addition of 4 µL MgCl₂ and 41 µL assay buffer. The assay was started by adding 5 µL of a GPP solution. The mixture was incubated for 30 min at 40 °C. Biosynthesized limonene was quantified in a GC equipped with a chiral column and using synthetic R and S-limonene standards. The enzymatic the production of R and S-limonene from different Superqueli-Carillanca genotypes is shown in this work. Preliminary results showed significant differences in limonene content among the genotypes analyzed. These results constitute an important base for selecting genotypes with a high content of this repellent monoterpene towards H. obscurus.

Keywords: head space, limonene enzymatic determination, red clover, Hylastinus obscurus

Procedia PDF Downloads 266

Authors: Jelena Filipovic, Marija Bodroza-Solarov, Milenko Kosutic, Nebojsa Novkovic, Vladimir Filipovic, Vesna Vucurovic

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Spelt wheat is suitable raw material for extruded products such as pasta, special types of bread and other products of altered nutritional characteristics compared to conventional wheat products. During the process of extrusion, spelt is exposed to high temperature and high pressure, during which raw material is also mechanically treated by shear forces. Spelt wheat is growing without the use of pesticides in harsh ecological conditions and in marginal areas of cultivation. So it can be used for organic and health safe food. Pasta is the most popular foodstuff; its consumption has been observed to rise. Pasta quality depends mainly on the properties of flour raw materials, especially protein content and its quality but starch properties are of a lesser importance. Pasta is characterized by significant amounts of complex carbohydrates, low sodium, total fat fiber, minerals, and essential fatty acids and its nutritional value can be improved with additional functional component. Over the past few decades, wheat pasta has been successfully formulated using different ingredients in pasta to cater health-conscious consumers who prefer having a product rich in protein, healthy lipids and other health benefits. Flaxseed flour is used in the production of bakery and pasta products that have properties of functional foods. However, it should be taken into account that food products retain the technological and sensory quality despite the added flax seed. Flaxseed contains important substances in its composition such as vitamins and minerals elements, and it is also an excellent source of fiber and one of the best sources of ω-3 fatty acids and lignin. In this paper, the quality and identification of spelt extruded product with the addition of flax seed, which is positively contributing to the nutritive and technology changes of the product, is investigated. ω-3 fatty acids are polyunsaturated essential fatty acids, and they must be taken with food to satisfy the recommended daily intake. Flaxseed flour is added in the quantity of 10/100 g of sample and 20/100 g of sample on farina. It is shown that the presence of ω-3 fatty acids in pasta can be clearly distinguished from other fatty acids by gas chromatography with mass spectrometry. Addition of flax seed flour influence chemical content of pasta. The addition of flax seed flour in spelt pasta in the quantities of 20g/100 g significantly increases the share of ω-3 fatty acids, which results in improved ratio of ω-6/ω-3 1:2.4 and completely satisfies minimum daily needs of ω-3 essential fatty acids (3.8 g/100 g) recommended by FDA. Flex flour influenced the pasta quality by increasing of hardness (2377.8 ± 13.3; 2874.5 ± 7.4; 3076.3 ± 5.9) and work of shear (102.6 ± 11.4; 150.8 ± 11.3; 165.0 ± 18.9) and increasing of adhesiveness (11.8 ± 20.6; 9.,98 ± 0.12; 7.1 ± 12.5) of the final product. Presented data point at good indicators of technological quality of spelt pasta with flax seed and that GC-MS analysis can be used in the quality control for flax seed identification. Acknowledgment: The research was financed by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Serbia (Project No. III 46005).

Keywords: GC-MS analysis, ω-3 fatty acids, flex seed, spelt wheat, daily needs

Procedia PDF Downloads 161

Authors: Priyoth Kittiteerasack, Alana Steffen, Alicia K. Matthews

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Depression is a leading cause of the worldwide burden of disability and disease burden. Notably, lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) populations are more likely to be a high-risk group for depression compared to their heterosexual and cisgender counterparts. To date, little is known about the rates and predictors of depression among Thai LGBT populations. As such, the purpose of this study was to: 1) measure the prevalence of depression among a diverse sample of Thai LGBT adults and 2) determine the influence of minority stress variables (discrimination, victimization, internalized homophobia, and identity concealment), general stress (stress and loneliness), and coping strategies (problem-focused, avoidance, and seeking social support) on depression outcomes. This study was guided by the Minority Stress Model (MSM). The MSM posits that elevated rates of mental health problems among LGBT populations stem from increased exposures to social stigma due to their membership in a stigmatized minority group. Social stigma, including discrimination and violence, represents unique sources of stress for LGBT individuals and have a direct impact on mental health. This study was conducted as part of a larger descriptive study of mental health among Thai LGBT adults. Standardized measures consistent with the MSM were selected and translated into the Thai language by a panel of LGBT experts using the forward and backward translation technique. The psychometric properties of translated instruments were tested and acceptable (Cronbach’s alpha > .8 and Content Validity Index = 1). Study participants were recruited using convenience and snowball sampling methods. Self-administered survey data were collected via an online survey and via in-person data collection conducted at a leading Thai LGBT organization. Descriptive statistics and multivariate analyses using multiple linear regression models were conducted to analyze study data. The mean age of participants (n = 411) was 29.5 years (S.D. = 7.4). Participants were primarily male (90.5%), homosexual (79.3%), and cisgender (76.6%). The mean score for depression of study participant was 9.46 (SD = 8.43). Forty-three percent of LGBT participants reported clinically significant levels of depression as measured by the Beck Depression Inventory. In multivariate models, the combined influence of demographic, stress, coping, and minority stressors explained 47.2% of the variance in depression scores (F(16,367) = 20.48, p < .001). Minority stressors independently associated with depression included discrimination (β = .43, p < .01) victimization (β = 1.53, p < .05), and identity concealment (β = -.54, p < .05). In addition, stress (β = .81, p < .001), history of a chronic disease (β = 1.20, p < .05), and coping strategies (problem-focused coping β = -1.88, p < .01, seeking social support β = -1.12, p < .05, and avoidance coping β = 2.85, p < .001) predicted depression scores. The study outcomes emphasized that minority stressors uniquely contributed to depression levels among Thai LGBT participants over and above typical non-minority stressors. Study findings have important implications for nursing practice and the development of intervention research.

Keywords: depression, LGBT, minority stress, sexual and gender minority, Thailand

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Authors: R. S. Giraddi, B. Thirupam Reddy, D. N. Kambrekar

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Chilli (Capsicum annum L.) an important commercial vegetable crop is ravaged by a number of insect-pests during both vegetative and reproductive phase resulting into significant crop loss.Thrips, Scirtothripsdorsalis, mite, Polyphagotarsonemuslatus and whitefly, Bemisiatabaci are the key sap feeding insects, their infestation leads to leaf curl, stunted growth and yield loss.During flowering and fruit formation stage, gall midge fly, Asphondyliacapparis (Rubsaaman) infesting flower buds and young fruits andHelicoverpaarmigera (Hubner) feeding on matured green fruits are the important insect pests causing significant crop loss.The pest is known to infest both flower buds and young fruits resulting into malformation of flower buds and twisting of fruits.In order to manage these insect-pests a combi product consisting of imidacloprid and betacyfluthrin (Soloman 300 OD) was evaluated for its bio-efficacy, phytotoxicity and effect on predator activity.Imidacloprid, a systemic insecticide belonging to neo-nicotinoid group, is effective against insect pests such as aphids, whiteflies (sap feeders) and other insectsviz., termites and soil insects.Beta-Cyfluthrin is an insecticide of synthetic pyrethroid group which acts by contact action and ingestion. It acts on the insects' nervous system as sodium channel blocker consequently a disorder of the nervous system occurs leading finally to the death. The field experiments were taken up during 2015 and 2016 at the Main Agricultural Research Station of University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad, Karnataka, India.The trials were laid out in a Randomized Block Design (RBD) with three replications using popular land race of Byadagi crop variety.Results indicated that the product at 21.6 + 50.4% gai/ha (240 ml/ha) and 27.9 + 65% gai/ha (310 ml/ha) was found quite effective in controlling thrips (0.00 to 0.66 thrips per six leaves) as against the standard check insecticide recommended for thrips by the University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad wherein the density of thrips recorded was significantly higher (1.00 to 2.00 Nos./6 leaves). Similarly, the test insecticide was quite effective against other target insects, whiteflies, fruit borer and gall midge fly as indicated by lower insect population observed in the treatments as compared to standard insecticidal control. The predatory beetle activity was found to be normal in all experimental plots. Highest green fruit yield of 5100-5500 kg/ha was recorded in Soloman 300 OD applied crop at 310 ml/ha rate as compared to 4750 to 5050 kg/ha recorded in check. At present 6-8 sprays of insecticides are recommended for management of these insect-pests on the crop. If combi-products are used in pest management programmes, it is possible to reduce insecticide usages in crop ecosystem.

Keywords: Imidacloprid, Betacyfluthrin, gallmidge fly, thrips, chilli

Procedia PDF Downloads 166

Authors: Noura Al Akkari, Aurélie Foucquier, Sylvain Lespinats

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Load monitoring is a management process for energy consumption towards energy savings and energy efficiency. Non Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) is one method of load monitoring used for disaggregation purposes. NILM is a technique for identifying individual appliances based on the analysis of the whole residence data retrieved from the main power meter of the house. Our NILM framework starts with data acquisition, followed by data preprocessing, then event detection, feature extraction, then general appliance modeling and identification at the final stage. The event detection stage is a core component of NILM process since event detection techniques lead to the extraction of appliance features. Appliance features are required for the accurate identification of the household devices. In this research work, we aim at developing a new event detection methodology with accurate load disaggregation to extract appliance features. Time-domain features extracted are used for tuning general appliance models for appliance identification and classification steps. We use unsupervised algorithms such as Dynamic Time Warping (DTW). The proposed method relies on detecting areas of operation of each residential appliance based on the power demand. Then, detecting the time at which each selected appliance changes its states. In order to fit with practical existing smart meters capabilities, we work on low sampling data with a frequency of (1/60) Hz. The data is simulated on Load Profile Generator software (LPG), which was not previously taken into consideration for NILM purposes in the literature. LPG is a numerical software that uses behaviour simulation of people inside the house to generate residential energy consumption data. The proposed event detection method targets low consumption loads that are difficult to detect. Also, it facilitates the extraction of specific features used for general appliance modeling. In addition to this, the identification process includes unsupervised techniques such as DTW. To our best knowledge, there exist few unsupervised techniques employed with low sampling data in comparison to the many supervised techniques used for such cases. We extract a power interval at which falls the operation of the selected appliance along with a time vector for the values delimiting the state transitions of the appliance. After this, appliance signatures are formed from extracted power, geometrical and statistical features. Afterwards, those formed signatures are used to tune general model types for appliances identification using unsupervised algorithms. This method is evaluated using both simulated data on LPG and real-time Reference Energy Disaggregation Dataset (REDD). For that, we compute performance metrics using confusion matrix based metrics, considering accuracy, precision, recall and error-rate. The performance analysis of our methodology is then compared with other detection techniques previously used in the literature review, such as detection techniques based on statistical variations and abrupt changes (Variance Sliding Window and Cumulative Sum).

Keywords: general appliance model, non intrusive load monitoring, events detection, unsupervised techniques;

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: Ruepert Jiel Cao

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This study explores the renegotiation of bakla culture in Philippine media in the context of Kalye Serye segment of the popular Filipino noontime variety show Eat Bulaga. Although the term “bakla” is usually translated to “gay” or “homosexual male” in English, they do not mean the same. The western notion of a gay refers to a male person attracted to another male person but still retains the masculine physical attributes. However, the bakla embodies loudness, femininity, and transvestitism. Hence, a bakla is a gay man aspiring to be a woman by assuming feminine actions and appearance, a definition much closer to a transgender. The Philippine media usually employs the bakla culture in comedy programs. The bakla nowadays is usually associated with the people of lower economic strata and carries a pathological connotation. The Filipino television program Eat Bulaga, which has been airing for more than 36 years, is fond of using bakla in comedy. However, the recently launched segment entitled Kalye Serye (literally “Street [Television] Series”), while still employing drag performance to incorporate bakla culture in comedy, renegotiates the bakla culture by deviating from the stereotypical notion of bakla. In this study, this researcher asks: (1) How does Kalye Serye renegotiate the Filipino concept of bakla in terms of economic aspirations and social norms? (2) How does Kalye Serye reappropriate the bakla culture to fit non-comedic performances? The study examines 15 purposively selected Kalye Serye episodes. Seven were selected from the Thursday episodes, seven from Saturday episodes, and the Lenten special episode. These were selected to cover as many characters and different character roles as possible. Data was constructed by identifying and coding the roles, physical appearance and gestures, and key dialogs of the characters. A total of six female characters played by three different male actors were examined. Semiotic analysis using semiotics of Roland Barthes was performed to produce a reading of the characters. Findings show that through physical appearance, the characters associate bakla with the economic affluence through the use of expensive-looking clothes, jewelries, cars, and elaborate gestures. This represents a new economic but old western aspiration of the bakla. In terms of social norms, the characters try to revive the traditional concepts of femininity, courtship, and respect, values which are touted to be lost in the current generation of Filipinos. This is quite ironic because while there is a seemingly tolerant attitude towards all forms of queerness, the bakla is considered immoral and yet, the bakla is used to teach about morality and values. Finally, the characters break the traditional association of the bakla with slapstick comedy and their roles are reappropriated to suit dramatic roles. By refraining from portraying the bakla in ridiculous manner (physically and in terms of roles), the bakla lends itself well in the performance of dramatic roles and their ridiculous and pathological associations removed. Future research may include other Filipino or Asian portrayals of queerness to get a better understanding of how queerness is incorporated in contemporary popular culture.

Keywords: bakla, drag performance, popular culture, queer representation

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: Makda Aamir, Sood Aayushi, Syed Omar, Nihan Khuld, Iskander Peter, Ijaz Naeem, Sharma Nishant

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Introduction:Glycogen Storage Disease Type-1 (GSD-1) is a rare phenomenon primarily affecting the liver and kidney. Excessive accumulation of glycogen and fat in liver, kidney, and intestinal mucosa is noted in patients with deficiency of Glucose-6-phosphatase deficiency. Patients with GSD-1 have a wide spectrum of symptoms, including hepatomegaly, hypoglycemia, lactic acidemia, hyperlipidemia, hyperuricemia, and growth retardation. Age of onset, rate of disease progression and its severity is variable in this disease.Case:An 18-year-old male with GSD-1a, Von Gierke’s disease, hyperuricemia, and hypertension presented to the hospital with nausea and vomiting. The patient followed an hourly cornstarch regimen during the day and overnight through infusion via a PEG tube. The complaints started at work, where he was unable to tolerate oral cornstarch. He washemodynamically stable on arrival. ABG showed pH 7.372, PaCO2 30.3, and PaO2 92.2. WBC 16.80, K+ 5.8, HCO3 13, BUN 28, Cr 2.2, Glucose 60, AST 115, ALT 128, Cholesterol 352, Triglycerides >1000, Uric Acid 10.6, Lactic Acid 11.8 which trended down to 8.0. CT abdomen showed hepatomegaly and fatty infiltration with the PEG tube in place.He was admitted to the ICU and started on D5NS for hypoglycemia and lactic acidosis. Per request by the patient’s pediatrician, he was transitioned to IV D10/0.45NS at 110mL/Hr to maintain blood glucose above 75 mg/L. Frequent accuchecks were done till he could tolerate his dietary regimen with cornstarch. Lactic acid downtrend to 2.9, and accuchecks ranged between 100-110. Cr improved to 1.3, and his home medications (Allopurinol and Lisinopril) were resumed. He was discharged in stable condition with plans for further genetic therapy work up.Discussion:Mainstay therapy for Von Gierke’s Disease is the prevention of metabolic derangements for which dietary and lifestyle changes are recommended. A low fructose and sucrose diet is recommended by limiting the intake of galactose and lactose to one serving per day. Hypoglycemia treatment in such patients is two-fold, utilizing both quick and stable release sources. Cornstarch has been one such therapy since the 1980s; its slow digestion provides a steady release of glucose over a longer period of time as compared with other sources of carbohydrates. Dosing guidelines vary from age to age and person to person, but it is highly recommended to check BG levels frequently to maintain a BG > 70 mg/dL. Associated high levels of triglycerides and cholesterol can be treated with statins, fibrates, etc. Conclusion:The management of hypoglycemia in GSD 1 disease presents various obstacles which could prove to be fatal. Due to the deficiency of G6P, treatment with a specialized hypoglycemic regimen is warranted. A D10 ½ NS infusion can be used to maintain blood sugar levels as well as correct metabolic or lactate imbalances. Infusion should be gradually weaned off after the patient can tolerate oral feeds as this can help prevent the risk of hypoglycemia and other derangements. Further research is needed in regards to these patients for more sustainable regimens.

Keywords: von gierke, glycogen storage disease, hypoglycemia, genetic disease

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Vishnu Asokan, Zaid M. Paloba

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Flow over cavities is an important area of research due to the significant change in flow physics caused by cavity aspect ratio, free stream Mach number and the nature of upstream boundary layer approaching the cavity leading edge. Cavity flow finds application in aircraft wheel well, weapons bay, combustion chamber of scramjet engines, etc. These flows are highly unsteady, compressible and turbulent and it involves mass entrainment coupled with acoustics phenomenon. Variation of flow dynamics in an angled cavity with a heated and cooled pylon upstream to the cavity with spatial combinations of heat flux addition and removal to the wall studied numerically. The goal of study is to investigate the effect of energy addition, removal to the cavity walls and pylon cavity flow dynamics. Preliminary steady state numerical simulations on inclined cavities with heat addition have shown that wall pressure profiles, as well as the recirculation, are influenced by heat transfer to the compressible fluid medium. Such a hybrid control of cavity flow dynamics in the form of heat transfer and pylon geometry can open out greater opportunities in enhancement of mixing and flame holding requirements of supersonic combustors. Addition of pylon upstream to the cavity reduces the acoustic oscillations emanating from the geometry. A numerical unsteady analysis of supersonic flow past cavities exposed to cavity wall heating and cooling with heated and cooled pylon helps to get a clear idea about the oscillation suppression in the cavity. A Cavity of L/D 4 and aft wall angle 22 degree with an upstream pylon of h/D=1.5 mm with a wall angle 29 degree exposed to supersonic flow of Mach number 2 and heat flux of 40 W/cm² and -40 W/cm² modeled for the above study. In the preliminary study, the domain is modeled and validated numerically with a turbulence model of SST k-ω using an HLLC implicit scheme. Both qualitative and quantitative flow data extracted and analyzed using advanced CFD tools. Flow visualization is done using numerical Schlieren method as the fluid medium gives the density variation. The heat flux addition to the wall increases the secondary vortex size of the cavity and removal of energy leads to the reduction in vortex size. The flow field turbulence seems to be increasing at higher heat flux. The shear layer thickness increases as heat flux increases. The steady state analysis of wall pressure shows that there is variation on wall pressure as heat flux increases. Shift in frequency of unsteady wall pressure analysis is an interesting observation for the above study. The time averaged skin friction seems to be reducing at higher heat flux due to the variation in viscosity of fluid inside the cavity.

Keywords: energy addition, frequency shift, Numerical Schlieren, shear layer, vortex evolution

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Bhakti Chitale

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Mumbai city, which is the business capital of India and one of the most crowded cities in the world, holds the biggest slum in Asia. The Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) occupies an area of 4035 sq.km. with a population of 22.8 million people. This population is mostly urban with 91% of this population living in areas of Municipal Corporations and Councils. Another 3% live in Census Towns. The region has 9 Municipal Corporations, 8 Municipal councils, and around 1000 villages. On the one hand MMR reflects the highest contribution to the Nations overall economy and on the other hand it shows the horrible and intolerable picture of about 2 million people, who are living in slums/without even slum with totally unhygienic conditions and with total loss of hope. The generations are about to get affected adversely if the solution is not worked out. This study is an attempt towards working out the solution. Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA) is state government's authority, specially formed to govern the development of MMR. MMRDA is engaged in long term planning, promotion of new growth centres, implementation of strategic projects and financing infrastructure development. While preparing the master plan for MMR for next 20 years MMRDA conducted a detail study regarding Housing scenario in MMR and possible options for improvement. The author was the in charge officer for the said assignment. This paper puts light on the interesting outcomes of the research study, which ranges from the adverse effects of government policies, automatic responses of housing market, effects on planning processes, and overall changing needs of housing patterns in the world due to changes in the social mechanism. It alarms the urban planners who usually focus on smart infrastructure development, about allied future dangers. This housing study will explain the complexities, realities and needs of innovations in the housing policies all over the world. The paper will explain further few success stories and failure stories of government initiatives with reasons. It gives the clear idea about the differences in needs of housing for people from different economic groups and direct and indirect market pressures on low cost housing. Magical phenomenon came in front like a large percentage of vacant houses is present in spite of the huge need. Housing market gets affected by the developments or any other physical and financial changes taking place in the nearby areas or cities, also by changes in cities which are located far from the region and also by the international investments or policy changes. Instead of just depending on governments actions in case of generation of affordable housing, it becomes equally important to make the housing markets automatically generate such stock and still make them sustainable is the aim of all the movement. In summary, we may say that the paper will sequentially elaborate the complete dynamics of housing in one of the most crowded urban area in the world that is Mumbai Metropolitan Region, with a lot of data, analysis, case studies, and recommendations.

Keywords: Mumbai India, slum housing, region planning, market recommendations

Procedia PDF Downloads 280

Authors: Lina Shinhwa Koo

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The Korean Empire, or Daehanjeguk, was proclaimed by King Gojong (1852–1919) in 1897 with the aim of promoting its sovereignty as a nation-state amid the political situation with threats from neighbouring countries, such as Japan and Russia. The Korean Empire period (1897–1910), which lasted until 1910, when Japan annexed Korea, is a pivotal time in the modern history of Korea. It was also during the period when many infrastructures for tourism, including transportation and lodging systems, were established. Throughout the Korean Empire period, tourists from Japan and Euro-American countries popularly visited Korea after it opened its doors relatively recently. The government of the Korean Empire also actively engaged with foreign officials and professionals. Train stations were built to connect Busan, where foreigners first arrived through the port of Jemulpo, with Seoul, the capital of Korea. In addition, hotels were built to accommodate the increasing number of tourists. Shedding new light on the modern architectural history of Korea, this paper discusses buildings that were made for tourism during the Korean Empire period to examine the historical background behind the tourism development in Korea and the concept of travelling related to architecture history. Foreigners came to Korea for varying reasons, from ethnographic research and diplomacy to business and missionary. They also played a key role in the transportation and hotel businesses. For instance, American entrepreneur James R. Morse received a concession to construct a railway between Busan and Seoul in 1896, which was later granted to a Japanese firm. Japanese entrepreneurs came to Korea and built hotels, such as Daebul Hotel in Incheon and Paseonggwan in Seoul. Sontag Hotel, Station Hotel and Hotel du Palais, all located in central areas of Seoul, were owned by German, British and French entrepreneurs, respectively. Each building showed distinctive architectural elements. For example, Sontag Hotel was built in Russian architectural style, whereas Paseonggwan was created with a combination of Japanese and European styles. Such various architectural designs indicated the multicultural urban scenes of the Korean Empire at the time. The existing scholarship has paid more attention to the royal buildings built during the Korean Empire period, such as Seokjojeon of the Duksu Palace. However, it is important to study the tourism-related architecture that reflected the societal situation of the Korean Empire when contrasting ideologies, landscapes, historical narratives and political tensions intertwined and co-existed. Examining both textual and visual resources, such as news articles and photographs, this paper surveys architectural styles and the trajectories of selective examples of hotels and train stations within the discussion of temporality and spatiality in the discipline of social science. In doing so, one can re-assess the history of the Korean Empire as the intersection of modern and traditional, intrinsic and extrinsic and national and international.

Keywords: Korean empire, modern Korean architecture, tourism, hotel, train station

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: Neha Joshi, Srikanth Jois, Hector J. Peughero, Poornima Jayakrishna, Moulya R., Purnima Madivanan, Kiran Kumar K. Salagame

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Transgenders are a marginalized section of the community, who are at high risk of mental health problems due to their stigmatization, abandonment by family, prejudice, discrimination by society at large, and the physical, emotional, and sexual abuse from both within and outside their community. Their mental healthcare needs remain largely unaddressed due to lack of access, discrimination by healthcare professions, and lack of resources, including time and money, to seek conventional medical and psychotherapeutic treatments. Meditation is increasingly receiving acceptance as a tool for managing stress and anxiety by the patients as well as mental healthcare professionals. “Meditation on Twin Hearts” is a no cost, self-administered intervention that a person can practice anywhere and at any time of the day. This pilot study evaluates the need for alternate traditional and ingenious interventions like “Meditation of Twin Hearts” to address the mental healthcare needs of the transgender community and acceptance of such an intervention by the community. Thirteen individuals identifying themselves as transgender were invited to participate in one (Hunsur Taluk) of the five scheduled free meditation camps in Mysore. After obtaining informed consent for participation in the study, their mental health status is captured using an anonymous survey using standard, validated, self-reported questionnaires Generalised Anxiety Disorders (GAD)-7 for anxiety, Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) for depression, and Suicidal Behavior Questionnaire-Revised for suicidality. Then, they were requested to attend a session on “Meditation on Twin Hearts.” After the session, their feedback on willingness to further explore the meditation technique for managing their mental healthcare need was assessed through another survey form. Out of the 13 participants, 92% scored for anxiety (4 mild, and 8 moderate anxiety). In the depression scale, 5 scored for mild and 5 for moderate depression, with a total of 77% (10/13) scoring positively on depression scale. Nearly 70% of participants (9/13), scored greater than the clinical cutoff for the need for clinical intervention. The proportion of individuals at risk for suicide was particularly high in this group, with 8/ 13 (61.5%) participants scoring the clinical cutoff score of ≥ 7. Surprisingly, none of the participants had ever consulted a mental healthcare professional. All the participants (13/13; 100%) responded in affirmative to the question, “Will you be willing to continue meditation for management of your anxiety?” Six out of 13 participants described their experience of meditation as “happy” and 3 described it as “peaceful”. None of the participants reported any negative beliefs or experience regarding the meditation. The study provides evidence for the urgent yet unmet mental healthcare need of the transgender community. The findings of the study also supports the rationale of conducting future systematic research to evaluate and explore ingenious and traditional practices, such as meditation, to meet the healthcare needs, especially in marginalized populations in a low income setting such as Lower and Middle Income countries. Based on these preliminary findings, the Principal Investigator (PI) is planning to cover 4 more areas of Mysore district.

Keywords: anxiety, depression, meditation on twin heart, suicidality, transgender

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Authors: Alfonso J. García Osuna

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Background and Significance: The objective of this paper is to analyze the inception and development of identity archetypes in early XX century Latin America, to explore their roots in United States culture, to discuss the influences that came to bear upon Latin Americans as the United States began to export images of standard identity paradigms through its film industry, and to survey how these images evolved and impacted Latin Americans’ ideas of national distinctiveness from the early 1900s to the present. Therefore, the general hypothesis of this work is that United States film in many ways influenced national identity patterning in its neighbors, especially in those nations closest to its borders, Cuba and Mexico. Very little research has been done on the social impact of the United States film industry on the country’s southern neighbors. From a historical perspective, the US’s influence has been examined as the projection of political and economic power, that is to say, that American influence is seen as a catalyst to align the forces that the US wants to see wield the power of the State. But the subtle yet powerful cultural influence exercised by film, the eminent medium for exporting ideas and ideals in the XX century, has not been significantly explored. Basic Methodologies and Description: Gramscian Marxist theory underpins the study, where it is argued that film, as an exceptional vehicle for culture, is an important site of political and social struggle; in this context, it aims to show how United States capitalist structures of power not only use brute force to generate and maintain control of overseas markets, but also promote their ideas through artistic products such as film in order to infiltrate the popular culture of subordinated peoples. In this same vein, the work of neo-Marxist theoreticians of popular culture is employed in order to contextualize the agency of subordinated peoples in the process of cultural assimilations. Indication of the Major Findings of the Study: The study has yielded much data of interest. The salient finding is that each particular nation receives United States film according to its own particular social and political context, regardless of the amount of pressure exerted upon it. An example of this is the unmistakable dissimilarity between Cuban and Mexican reception of US films. The positive reception given in Cuba to American film has to do with the seamless acceptance of identity paradigms that, for historical reasons discussed herein, were incorporated into the national identity grid quite unproblematically. Such is not the case with Mexico, whose express rejection of identity paradigms offered by the United States reflects not only past conflicts with the northern neighbor, but an enduring recognition of the country’s indigenous roots, one that precluded such paradigms. Concluding Statement: This paper is an endeavor to elucidate the ways in which US film contributed to the outlining of Latin American identity blueprints, offering archetypes that would be accepted or rejected according to each nation’s particular social requirements, constraints and ethnic makeup.

Keywords: film studies, United States, Latin America, identity studies

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Authors: Marina Shakleina, Konstantin Shaklein, Stanislav Yakiro

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The digitalization of modern human life over the last decade has facilitated the acquisition, storage, and processing of data, which are used to detect changes in consumer preferences and to improve the internal efficiency of the production process. This emerging trend has attracted academic interest in the use of big data in research. The study focuses on modeling the social comfort of the Russian population for the period 2010-2021 using big data. Big data provides enormous opportunities for understanding human interactions at the scale of society with plenty of space and time dynamics. One of the most popular big data sources is Google Trends. The methodology for assessing social comfort using big data involves several steps: 1. 574 words were selected based on the Harvard IV-4 Dictionary adjusted to fit the reality of everyday Russian life. The set of keywords was further cleansed by excluding queries consisting of verbs and words with several lexical meanings. 2. Search queries were processed to ensure comparability of results: the transformation of data to a 10-point scale, elimination of popularity peaks, detrending, and deseasoning. The proposed methodology for keyword search and Google Trends processing was implemented in the form of a script in the Python programming language. 3. Block and summary integral indicators of social comfort were constructed using the first modified principal component resulting in weighting coefficients values of block components. According to the study, social comfort is described by 12 blocks: ‘health’, ‘education’, ‘social support’, ‘financial situation’, ‘employment’, ‘housing’, ‘ethical norms’, ‘security’, ‘political stability’, ‘leisure’, ‘environment’, ‘infrastructure’. According to the model, the summary integral indicator increased by 54% and was 4.631 points; the average annual rate was 3.6%, which is higher than the rate of economic growth by 2.7 p.p. The value of the indicator describing social comfort in Russia is determined by 26% by ‘social support’, 24% by ‘education’, 12% by ‘infrastructure’, 10% by ‘leisure’, and the remaining 28% by others. Among 25% of the most popular searches, 85% are of negative nature and are mainly related to the blocks ‘security’, ‘political stability’, ‘health’, for example, ‘crime rate’, ‘vulnerability’. Among the 25% most unpopular queries, 99% of the queries were positive and mostly related to the blocks ‘ethical norms’, ‘education’, ‘employment’, for example, ‘social package’, ‘recycling’. In conclusion, the introduction of the latent category ‘social comfort’ into the scientific vocabulary deepens the theory of the quality of life of the population in terms of the study of the involvement of an individual in the society and expanding the subjective aspect of the measurements of various indicators. Integral assessment of social comfort demonstrates the overall picture of the development of the phenomenon over time and space and quantitatively evaluates ongoing socio-economic policy. The application of big data in the assessment of latent categories gives stable results, which opens up possibilities for their practical implementation.

Keywords: big data, Google trends, integral indicator, social comfort

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Authors: Sumedha Weerasekara, Morgan Miles, Mark Morrison, Branka Krivokapic-Skoko

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This paper is aimed at exploring the interrelationships among entrepreneurial ecosystem factors and entrepreneurial cognition in regional and metropolitan ecosystems. Entrepreneurial ecosystem factors examined include: culture, infrastructure, access to finance, informal networks, support services, access to universities, and the depth and breadth of the talent pool. Using a multivariate approach we explore the impact of these ecosystem factors or elements on entrepreneurial cognition. In doing so, the existing body of knowledge from the literature on entrepreneurial ecosystem and cognition have been blended to explore the relationship between entrepreneurial ecosystem factors and cognition in a way not hitherto investigated. The concept of the entrepreneurial ecosystem has received increased attention as governments, universities and communities have started to recognize the potential of integrated policies, structures, programs and processes that foster entrepreneurship activities by supporting innovation, productivity and employment growth. The notion of entrepreneurial ecosystems has evolved and grown with the advancement of theoretical research and empirical studies. Importance of incorporating external factors like culture, political environment, and the economic environment within a single framework will enhance the capacity of examining the whole systems functionality to better understand the interaction of the entrepreneurial actors and factors within a single framework. The literature on clusters underplays the role of entrepreneurs and entrepreneurial management in creating and co-creating organizations, markets, and supporting ecosystems. Entrepreneurs are only one actor following a limited set of roles and dependent upon many other factors to thrive. As a consequence, entrepreneurs and relevant authorities should be aware of the other actors and factors with which they engage and rely, and make strategic choices to achieve both self and also collective objectives. The study uses stratified random sampling method to collect survey data from 12 different regions in regional and metropolitan regions of NSW, Australia. A questionnaire was administered online among 512 Small and medium enterprise owners operating their business in selected 12 regions in NSW, Australia. Data were analyzed using descriptive analyzing techniques and partial least squares - structural equation modeling. The findings show that even though there is a significant relationship between each and every entrepreneurial ecosystem factors, there is a weak relationship between most entrepreneurial ecosystem factors and entrepreneurial cognition. In the metropolitan context, the availability of finance and informal networks have the largest impact on entrepreneurial cognition while culture, infrastructure, and support services having the smallest impact and the talent pool and universities having a moderate impact on entrepreneurial cognition. Interestingly, in a regional context, culture, availability of finance, and the talent pool have the highest impact on entrepreneurial cognition, while informal networks having the smallest impact and the remaining factors – infrastructure, universities, and support services have a moderate impact on entrepreneurial cognition. These findings suggest the need for a location-specific strategy for supporting the development of entrepreneurial cognition.

Keywords: academic achievement, colour response card, feedback

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Authors: Deepa Shokeen, Bani Tamber Aeri

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Food choice is a complex process influenced by the interplay of multiple factors, including physical, socio-cultural and economic factors comprising macro or micro level food environments. While a clear understanding of the relationship between what we eat and the environmental context in which these food choices are made is still needed; it has however now been shown that food environments do play a significant role in the obesity epidemic and increasing cardio-metabolic risk factors. Evidence in other countries indicates that the food environment may strongly influence the prevalence of obesity and cardio-metabolic risk factors among young adults. Although in the Indian context, data does indicate the associations between sedentary lifestyle, stress, faulty diets but very little evidence supports the role of food environment in influencing cardio-metabolic health among employed adults. Thus, this research is required to establish how different environments affect different individuals as individuals interact with the environment on a number of levels. Methodology: The objective of the present study is to assess the effect of selected food and nutrition environments with emphasis on worksite environment and to analyse its impact on the food choices and dietary behaviour of the employees (25-45 years of age) of the organizations under study. In the proposed study an attempt will be made to randomly select various worksite environments from Delhi and NCR. The study will be conducted in two phases. In phase I, Information will be obtained on their socio-demographic profile and various factors influencing their food choices including most commonly consumed foods and most frequently visited eating outlets in and around the work place. Data will also be gathered on anthropometry (height, weight, waist circumference), biochemical parameters (lipid profile and fasting glucose), blood pressure and dietary intake. Based on the findings of phase I, a list of the most frequently visited eating outlets in and around the workplace will be prepared in Phase II. These outlets will then be subjected to nutrition environment assessment survey (NEMS). On the basis of the information gathered from phase I and phase II, influence of selected food and nutrition environments on food choice, dietary behaviour and prevalence of cardio-metabolic risk factors among employed adults will be assessed. Expected outcomes: The proposed study will try to ascertain the impact of selected food and nutrition environments on food choice and dietary intake of the working adults as it is important to learn how these food environments influence the eating perceptions and health behavior of the adults. In addition to this, anthropometry blood pressure and biochemical assessment of the subjects will be done to assess the prevalence of cardio-metabolic risk factors. If the findings indicate that the work environment, where most of these young adults spend their productive hours of the day, influence their health, than perhaps steps maybe needed to make these environments more conducive to health.

Keywords: food and nutrition environment, cardio-metabolic risk factors, India, worksite environment

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Authors: Michael J. Haslip

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Character strength application improves performance and well-being in adults across industries, but the potential impact of character strength training among early childhood educators is mostly unknown. To explore how character strengths are applied by early childhood educators at work, a qualitative study was completed alongside professional development provided to a group of in-service teachers of children ages 0-5 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States. Study participants (n=17) were all female. The majority of participants were non-white, in full-time lead or assistant teacher roles, had at least ten years of experience and a bachelor’s degree. Teachers were attending professional development weekly for 2 hours over a 10-week period on the topic of social and emotional learning and child guidance. Related to this training were modules and sessions on identifying a teacher’s character strength profile using the Values in Action classification of 24 strengths (e.g., humility, perseverance) that have a scientific basis. Teachers were then asked to apply their character strengths to help resolve current workplace challenges. This study identifies which character strengths the teachers reported using most frequently and the nature of the workplace challenges being resolved in this context. The study also reports how difficult these challenges were to the teachers and their success rate at resolving workplace challenges using a character strength application plan. The study also documents how teachers’ own use of character strengths relates to their modeling of these same traits (e.g., kindness, teamwork) for children, especially when the nature of the workplace challenge directly involves the children, such as when addressing issues of classroom management and behavior. Data were collected on action plans (reflective templates) which teachers wrote to explain the work challenge they were facing, the character strengths they used to address the challenge, their plan for applying strengths to the challenge, and subsequent results. Content analysis and thematic analysis were used to investigate the research questions using approaches that included classifying, connecting, describing, and interpreting data reported by educators. Findings reveal that teachers most frequently use kindness, leadership, fairness, hope, and love to address a range of workplace challenges, ranging from low to high difficulty, involving children, coworkers, parents, and for self-management. Teachers reported a 71% success rate at fully or mostly resolving workplace challenges using the action plan method introduced during professional development. Teachers matched character strengths to challenges in different ways, with certain strengths being used mostly when the challenge involved children (love, forgiveness), others mostly with adults (bravery, teamwork), and others universally (leadership, kindness). Furthermore, teacher’s application of character strengths at work involved directly modeling character for children in 31% of reported cases. The application of character strengths among early childhood educators may play a significant role in improving teacher well-being, reducing job stress, and improving efforts to model character for young children.

Keywords: character strengths, positive psychology, professional development, social-emotional learning

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Authors: H. Weigelt-Marom

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Over the years and up to the arousal of the COVID-19 pandemic, deaf or hard of hearing students studying in higher education institutions, participated lectures on campus using hearing aids and strategies adapted for frontal learning in a classroom. Usually, these aids were well known to them from their earlier study experience in school. However, the transition to online lessons, due to the latest pandemic, led deaf or hard of hearing students to study outside of their physical, well known learning environment. The change of learning environment and structure rose new challenges for these students. The present study examined the learning experience, limitations, challenges and benefits regarding learning online with lecture and classmates via the “Zoom” video conference program, among deaf or hard of hearing students in academia setting. In addition, emotional and social aspects related to learning in general versus the “Zoom” were examined. The study included 18 students diagnosed as deaf or hard of hearing, studying in various higher education institutions in Israel. All students had experienced lessons on the “Zoom”. Following allocation of the group study by the deaf and hard of hearing non-profit organization “Ma’agalei Shema”, and receiving the participants inform of consent, students were requested to answer a google form questioner and participate in an interview. The questioner included background information (e.g., age, year of studying, faculty etc.), level of computer literacy, and level of hearing and forms of communication (e.g., lip reading, sign language etc.). The interviews included a one on one, semi-structured, in-depth interview, conducted by the main researcher of the study (interview duration: up to 60 minutes). The interviews were held on “ZOOM” using specific adaptations for each interviewee: clear face screen of the interviewer for lip and face reading, and/ or professional sign language or live text transcript of the conversation. Additionally, interviewees used their audio devices if needed. Questions regarded: learning experience, difficulties and advantages studying using “Zoom”, learning in a classroom versus on “Zoom”, and questions concerning emotional and social aspects related to learning. Thematic analysis of the interviews revealed severe difficulties regarding the ability of deaf or hard of hearing students to comprehend during ”Zoom“ lessons without adoptive aids. For example, interviewees indicated difficulties understanding “Zoom” lessons due to their inability to use hearing devices commonly used by them in the classroom (e.g., FM systems). 80% indicated that they could not comprehend “Zoom” lessons since they could not see the lectures face, either because lectures did not agree to open their cameras or, either because they did not keep a straight forward clear face appearance while teaching. However, not all descriptions regarded learning via the “zoom” were negative. For example, 20% reported the recording of “Zoom” lessons as a main advantage. Enabling then to repeatedly watch the lessons at their own pace, mostly assisted by friends and family to translate the audio output into an accessible input. These finding and others regarding the learning experience of the group study on the “Zoom”, as well as their recommendation to enable deaf or hard of hearing students to study inclusively online, will be presented at the conference.

Keywords: deaf or hard of hearing, learning experience, Zoom, qualitative research

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Authors: Brian J. Biroscak

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In the United States (US), “sex trafficking” is defined at the federal level in the Trafficking Victims Protection Act of 2000 as encompassing a number of processes such as recruitment, transportation, and provision of a person for the purpose of a commercial sex act. It involves the use of force, fraud, or coercion, or in which the person induced to perform such act has not attained 18 years of age. Accumulating evidence suggests that sex trafficking is exacerbated by social and environmental stressors (e.g., pandemics). Given that “provision” is a key part of the definition, “provisioning systems” may offer a useful lens through which to study sex trafficking dynamics. Provisioning systems are the social systems connecting individuals, small groups, entities, and embedded communities as they seek to satisfy their needs and wants for goods, services, experiences and ideas through value-based exchange in communities. This project presents a conceptual framework for understanding sex trafficking dynamics in the context of the COVID pandemic. The framework is developed as a system dynamics simulation model based on published evidence, social and behavioral science theory, and key informant interviews with stakeholders from the Protection, Prevention, Prosecution, and Partnership sectors in one US state. This “4 P Paradigm” has been described as fundamental to the US government’s anti-trafficking strategy. The present research question is: “How do sex trafficking systems (e.g., supply, demand and price) interact with other provisioning systems (e.g., networks of organizations that help sexually exploited persons) to influence trafficking over time vis-à-vis the COVID pandemic?” Semi-structured interviews with stakeholders (n = 19) were analyzed based on grounded theory and combined for computer simulation. The first step (Problem Definition) was completed by open coding video-recorded interviews, supplemented by a literature review. The model depicts provision of sex trafficking services for victims and survivors as declining in March 2020, coincidental with COVID, but eventually rebounding. The second modeling step (Dynamic Hypothesis Formulation) was completed by open- and axial coding of interview segments, as well as consulting peer-reviewed literature. Part of the hypothesized explanation for changes over time is that the sex trafficking system behaves somewhat like a commodities market, with each of the other subsystems exhibiting delayed responses but collectively keeping trafficking levels below what they would be otherwise. Next steps (Model Building & Testing) led to a ‘proof of concept’ model that can be used to conduct simulation experiments and test various action ideas, by taking model users outside the entire system and seeing it whole. If sex trafficking dynamics unfold as hypothesized, e.g., oscillated post-COVID, then one potential leverage point is to address the lack of information feedback loops between the actual occurrence and consequences of sex trafficking and those who seek to prevent its occurrence, prosecute the traffickers, protect the victims and survivors, and partner with the other anti-trafficking advocates. Implications for researchers, administrators, and other stakeholders are discussed.

Keywords: pandemics, provisioning systems, sex trafficking, system dynamics modeling

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