Search results for: surgical intensive care unite

Authors: Shaine Mehta, Neelam Parmar, Patrick White, Mark Ashworth

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Patients with a history of substance have a high prevalence of comorbidities, including asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Mortality rates are higher than that of the general population and the link to respiratory disease is reported. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) support opioid substitution therapy as an effective means for harm reduction. However, whilst a high proportion of patients receiving opioid substitution therapy are smokers, to the author’s best knowledge there have been no studies of respiratory disease and smoking intensity in these patients. A cross sectional prevalence study was conducted using an anonymised patient-level database in primary care, Lambeth DataNet (LDN). We included patients aged 18 years and over who had records of ever having been prescribed methadone in primary care. Patients under 18 years old or prescribed buprenorphine (because of uncertainty about the prescribing indication) were excluded. Demographic, smoking, alcohol and asthma and COPD coding data were extracted. Differences between methadone and non-methadone users were explored with multivariable analysis. LDN contained data on 321, 395 patients ≥ 18 years; 676 (0.16%) had a record of methadone prescription. Patients prescribed methadone were more likely to be male (70.7% vs. 50.4%), older (48.9yrs vs. 41.5yrs) and less likely to be from an ethnic minority group (South Asian 2.1% vs. 7.8%; Black African 8.9% vs. 21.4%). Almost all those prescribed methadone were smokers or ex-smokers (97.3% vs. 40.9%); more were non-alcohol drinkers (41.3% vs. 24.3%). We found a high prevalence of COPD (12.4% vs 1.4%) and asthma (14.2% vs 4.4%). Smoking intensity data shows a high prevalence of ≥ 20 cigarettes per day (21.5% vs. 13.1%). Risk of COPD, adjusted for age, gender, ethnicity and deprivation, was raised in smokers: odds ratio 14.81 (95%CI 11.26, 19.47), and in the methadone group: OR 7.51 (95%CI: 5.78, 9.77). Furthermore, after adjustment for smoking intensity (number of cigarettes/day), the risk was raised in methadone group: OR 4.77 (95%CI: 3.13, 7.28). High burden of respiratory disease compounded by the high rates of smoking is a public health concern. This supports an integrated approach to health in patients treated for opiate dependence, with access to smoking cessation support. Further work may evaluate the current structure and commissioning of substance misuse services, including smoking cessation. Regression modelling highlights that methadone as a ‘risk factor’ was independently associated with COPD prevalence, even after adjustment for smoking intensity. This merits further exploration, as the association may be related to unexplored aspects of smoking (such as the number of years smoked) or may be related to other related exposures, such as smoking heroin or crack cocaine.

Keywords: methadone, respiratory disease, smoking cessation, substance misuse

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Authors: Deanne McArthur, Melinda Wall, Claire Hanlon, Dana Agnolin, Krista Davis, Melanie Dennis, Elizabeth Glidden, Anne Marie Smith, Claudette Thomson

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In Canada, as prevalence rates and severity of illness have increased among patients suffering from eating disorders, wait times have grown substantially. Patients in Canada often face wait times in excess of 12 months. It is known that delaying treatment for eating disorders contributes to poor patient outcomes and higher rates of symptom relapse. Improving interim services for adult patients awaiting outpatient treatment is a priority for an outpatient eating disorders clinic in Ontario, Canada. The clinical setting currently provides care for adults diagnosed with anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa and binge eating disorder. At present, the only support provided while patients are on the waitlist consists of communication with primary care providers regarding parameters for medical monitoring. The significance of this study will be to test the feasibility, acceptability and efficacy of an intervention to support adult patients awaiting outpatient eating disorder treatment for anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa and binge eating disorder. Methods: An intervention including psychoeducation, supportive resources, self-monitoring, and auxiliary referral will be pilot-tested with a group of patients in the summer of 2022 and detailed using a prospective cohort case study research design. The team will host patient focus groups in May 2022 to gather input informing the content of the intervention. The intervention will be pilot tested with newly-referred patients in June and July 2022. Patients who participate in the intervention will be asked to complete a survey evaluating the utility of the intervention and for suggestions, they may have for improvement. Preliminary findings describing the existing literature pertaining to waitlist interventions for patients with eating disorders, data gathered from the focus groups and early pilot testing results will be presented. Data analysis will continue throughout 2022 and early 2023 for follow-up publication and presentation in the summer of 2023. The aim of this study is to contribute to the body of knowledge pertaining to providing interim support to those patients waiting for treatment for eating disorders and, by extension, to improve outcomes for this population.

Keywords: eating disorders, waitlist management, intervention study, pilot test

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Authors: Jami Wang, Brian Kao, Davin Agustines

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COVID-19 highlighted the active discrimination against the Asian American population easily seen through media, social tension, and increased crimes against the specific population. It is well known that long-term racism can also have a large impact on both emotional and psychological well-being. However, the healthcare disparity during this time also revealed how the Asian American community lacked the research data, political support, and medical infrastructure for this particular population. During a time when Asian American fear for safety with decreasing mental health, telepsychiatry is particularly promising. COVID-19 demonstrated how well psychiatry could integrate with telemedicine, with psychiatry being the second most utilized telemedicine visits. However, the Asian American community did not utilize the telepsychiatry resources as much as other groups. Because of this, we wanted to understand why the patient population who was affected the most by COVID-19 mentally did not seek out care. To do this, we decided to study the top top telepsychiatry platforms. The current top telepsychiatry companies in the United States include Teladoc and BetterHelp. In the Teladoc mental health sector, they only had 4 available languages (English, Spanish, French, and Danis,) with none of them being an Asian language. In a similar manner, Teladoc’s top competitor in the telepsychiatry space, BetterHelp, only listed a total of 3 Asian languages, including Mandarin, Japanese, and Malaysian. However, this is still a short list considering they have over 20 languages available. The shortage of available physicians that speak multiple languages is concerning, as it could be difficult for the Asian American community to relate with. There are limited mental health resources that cater to their likely cultural needs, further exacerbating the structural racism and institutional barriers to appropriate care. It is important to note that these companies do provide interpreters to comply with the nondiscrimination and language assistance federal law. However, interactions with an interpreter are not only more time-consuming but also less personal than talking directly with a physician. Psychiatry is the field that emphasizes interpersonal relationships. The trust between a physician and the patient is critical in developing patient rapport to guide in better understanding the clinical picture and treating the patient appropriately. The language barrier creates an additional barrier between the physician and patient. Because Asian Americans are one of the largest growing patient population bases, these telehealth companies have much to gain by catering to the Asian American market. Without providing adequate access to bilingual and bicultural physicians, the current system will only further exacerbate the growing disparity. The healthcare community and telehealth companies need to recognize that the Asian American population is a severely underserved population in mental health and has much to gain from telepsychiatry. The lack of language is one of many reasons why there is a disparity for Asian Americans in the mental health space.

Keywords: telemedicine, psychiatry, Asian American, disparity

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Authors: Evelyn Castle, Adam Thompson

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Background: In 2013, the Kano State Primary Health Care Management Board redesigned its Routine immunization supply chain from diffused pull to direct delivery push. It addressed issues around stockouts and reduced time spent by health facility staff collecting, and reporting on vaccine usage. The health care board sought the help of a 3PL for twice-monthly deliveries from its cold store to 484 facilities across 44 local governments. eHA’s Health Delivery Systems group formed a 3PL to serve 326 of these new facilities in partnership with the State. We focused on designing and implementing a technology system throughout. Basic methodologies: GIS Mapping: - Planning the delivery of vaccines to hundreds of health facilities requires detailed route planning for delivery vehicles. Mapping the road networks across Kano and Bauchi with a custom routing tool provided information for the optimization of deliveries. Reducing the number of kilometers driven each round by 20%, - reducing cost and delivery time. Direct Delivery Information System: - Vaccine Direct Deliveries are facilitated through pre-round planning (driven by health facility database, extensive GIS, and inventory workflow rules), manager and driver control panel customizing delivery routines and reporting, progress dashboard, schedules/routes, packing lists, delivery reports, and driver data collection applications. Move: Last Mile Logistics Management System: - MOVE has improved vaccine supply information management to be timely, accurate and actionable. Provides stock management workflow support, alerts management for cold chain exceptions/stock outs, and on-device analytics for health and supply chain staff. Software was built to be offline-first with user-validated interface and experience. Deployed to hundreds of vaccine storage site the improved information tools helps facilitate the process of system redesign and change management. Findings: - Stock-outs reduced from 90% to 33% - Redesigned current health systems and managing vaccine supply for 68% of Kano’s wards. - Near real time reporting and data availability to track stock. - Paperwork burdens of health staff have been dramatically reduced. - Medicine available when the community needs it. - Consistent vaccination dates for children under one to prevent polio, yellow fever, tetanus. - Higher immunization rates = Lower infection rates. - Hundreds of millions of Naira worth of vaccines successfully transported. - Fortnightly service to 326 facilities in 326 wards across 30 Local Government areas. - 6,031 cumulative deliveries. - Over 3.44 million doses transported. - Minimum travel distance covered in a round of delivery is 2000 kms & maximum of 6297 kms. - 153,409 kms travelled by 6 drivers. - 500 facilities in 326 wards. - Data captured and synchronized for the first time. - Data driven decision making now possible. Conclusion: eHA’s Vaccine Direct delivery has met challenges in Kano and Bauchi State and provided a reliable delivery service of vaccinations that ensure t health facilities can run vaccination clinics for children under one. eHA uses innovative technology that delivers vaccines from Northern Nigerian zonal stores straight to healthcare facilities. Helped healthcare workers spend less time managing supplies and more time delivering care, and will be rolled out nationally across Nigeria.

Keywords: direct delivery information system, health delivery system, GIS mapping, Northern Nigeria, vaccines

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Authors: Claude Takenga, Rolf-Dietrich Berndt, Erling Si, Markus Diem, Guohui Qiao, Melanie Gau, Michael Brandstoetter, Martin Kampel, Michael Dworzak

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In patients with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), treatment response is increasingly evaluated with minimal residual disease (MRD) analyses. Flow Cytometry (FCM) is a fast and sensitive method to detect MRD. However, the interpretation of these multi-parametric data requires intensive operator training and experience. This paper presents a pipeline-software, as a ready-to-use FCM-based MRD-assessment tool for the daily clinical practice for patients with ALL. The new tool increases accuracy in assessment of FCM-MRD in samples which are difficult to analyse by conventional operator-based gating since computer-aided analysis potentially has a superior resolution due to utilization of the whole multi-parametric FCM-data space at once instead of step-wise, two-dimensional plot-based visualization. The system developed as a telemedical network reduces the work-load and lab-costs, staff-time needed for training, continuous quality control, operator-based data interpretation. It allows dissemination of automated FCM-MRD analysis to medical centres which have no established expertise for the benefit of an even larger community of diseased children worldwide. We established a telemedical network system for analysis and clinical follow-up and treatment monitoring of Leukaemia. The system is scalable and adapted to link several centres and laboratories worldwide.

Keywords: data security, flow cytometry, leukaemia, telematics platform, telemedicine

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Authors: Ronald Blough

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Hospitals, clinics, and medical facilities are the core of the Health Services sector providing 24/7 medical care to those in need. Any disruption of these important medical services highlights the vulnerabilities in the medical system. An internal or external event can create a catastrophic incident paralyzing the medical services causing the facility to shift into emergency operations with the possibility of evacuation. The hospital administrator and government officials must decide in a very short amount of time whether to shelter in place or evacuate. This presentation will identify best practice recommendations regarding the hospital evacuation decision and response analyzing previous hospital evacuations to encourage hospitals in the region to review or develop their own emergency evacuation plans.

Keywords: disaster preparedness, hospital evacuation, shelter-in-place, incident containment, health services vulnerability, hospital resources

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Authors: Rahim Sarvar, Bahram Azadbakht, Samira Safaee

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The leading goal of all planning is to attain sustainable development, regional balance, suitable distribution of activities, and maximum use of environmental capabilities in the process of development of regions. Intensive concentration of population and activities in one or some limited geographical locality is of main characteristics of most developing countries, especially Iran. Not considering the long-term programs and relying on temporary and superficial plans by people in charge of decision-making to attain their own objectives causes obstacles, resulting in unbalance development. The basic reason for these problems is to establish the development planning while economic aspects are merely considered and any attentions are not paid to social and regional feedbacks, what have been ending up to social and economic inequality, unbalanced distribution of development among the regions as well. In addition to study of special planning and structure of the county of Malekan, this research tries to achieve some other aims, i.e. recognition and introduction of approaches in order to utilize resources optimally, to distribute the population, activities, and facilities in optimum fashion, and to investigate and identify the spatial development potentials of the County. Based on documentary, descriptive, analytical, and field studies, this research employs maps to analyze the data, investigates the variables, and applies SPSS, Auto CAD, and Arc View software. The results show that the natural factors have a significant influence on spatial layout of settlements; distribution of facilities and functions are not equal among the rural districts of the county; and there is a spatial equivalence in the region area between population and number of settlements.

Keywords: development, entropy index, Malekan City, planning, regional equilibrium

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Authors: Muhammad Faisal Khilji, Rana Shoaib Hamid

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Subdural hematoma (SDH) is an extremely rare complication of immune thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP). We present a case of a 34 years old female who presented to the Emergency department of a tertiary care hospital with complaints of headache, on and off gums bleeding and upper respiratory tract symptoms for the last two weeks. Examination was unremarkable except some purpura over limbs. Investigations revealed zero platelets and peripheral film suggestive of ITP. Computerized tomography (CT) brain revealed bilateral SDH in the frontal areas extending into Falx cerebri. Impression of ITP with SDH was made. Patient was treated with intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg), methyl prednisolone and initial Platelets transfusion. Patient recovered uneventfully with platelets reaching normal levels within a few days and resolution of SDH without surgery.

Keywords: headache, immune thrombocytopenia, purpura, subdural hematoma

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Authors: P. Gil Del Álamo, J. García Pereda, A. Castañeda De La Paz, D. Arazola Lopez, M. D. Cubiles De La Vega, A. Enguíx González, J. M. Muñoz Pichardo

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In the last decades, obesity has more than doubled and is, with overweight, the second leading cause of preventable death. Despite multiple strategies against obesity, no country to date has reduced the number of obese people. To achieve World Health Organization’s target to reverse this tendency we need dramatic and different actions to engage the civil society in creating demand for a healthy style of life. The objective of this study is to demonstrate that a social media as the television can be used to convince the civil society that a healthy nutrition and physical activity are affordable, effective and necessary to prevent and to treat the obesity. Methodology: 61 individuals (34 women and 27 men) with obesity (mean BMI 45,51) were recruited to follow during 22 weeks an intensive lifestyle intervention in order to lose weight in a healthy manner. They were not isolated or moved from their usual environment. This program included endocrinological and nutritional assessment, promotion of physical activity and psychological support. BMI was measured every week. Time to leave obesity between men and women was analyzed with a survival analysis. Results: BMI decreased in all the cases. Analysing Time to leave obesity, around the week 30, 25% of men leave the obesity and around the week 39, 25% of women leave the obesity too. Conclusion: We demonstrate the audience that improving the quality of the diet and increasing the physical activity is a realistic way to lose weight. This evidence can encourage the people to act in their own self-interest changing their style of life in order to prevent or to reduce their overweight.

Keywords: obesity epidemic, obesity prevention, obesity strategies, social media

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Authors: Ahsan R. Khokhar, Fizza Hassan

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Alkali-Silica Reaction (ASR) has been recognized as a potential cause of concrete degradation in the world since the 1940s. In Pakistan, mega hydropower structures like dams, weirs constructed from aggregates extracted from a local riverbed exhibited different levels of alkali-silica reactivity over an extended service period. The concrete expansion potential due to such aggregates has been categorized as slow-reactive. Apart from hydropower structures, ASR existence has been identified in the concrete structural elements of a Textile Mill building which used aggregates extracted from the nearby riverbed. The original structure of the Textile Mill was erected in the 80s with the addition of a textile ‘sizing and wrapping’ hall constructed in the 90s. In the years to follow, intensive spalling was observed in the structural members of the subject hall; enough to threat to the overall stability of the building. Limitations such as incomplete building data posed hurdles during the detailed structural investigation. The paper lists observations made while assessing the extent of damage and its effect on the building hall structure. Core testing and Petrographic tests were carried out as per the ASTM standards for strength degradation analysis followed by the identifying its root cause. Results confirmed significant structural strength reduction because of ASR which necessitated the formulation of an immediate re-strengthening solution. The paper also discusses the possible tracks of rehabilitative measures which are being adapted to stabilize the structure and seize further concrete expansion.

Keywords: Alkali-Silica Reaction (ASR), concrete strength degradation, damage assessment, damage evaluation

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Authors: Abdalla Mansour, Dan Brown, Adel Helmy, Rikin Trivedi, Mathew Guilfoyle

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Introduction: Diagnosing delayed cerebral ischaemia (DCI) following aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) can be challenging, particularly in poor-grade patients. Objectives: This study sought to assess the value of routine CTP in identifying (or excluding) DCI and in guiding management. Methods: Eight-year retrospective neuroimaging study at a large UK neurosurgical centre. Subjects included a random sample of adult patients with confirmed aneurysmal SAH that had a CTP scan during their inpatient stay, over a 8-year period (May 2014 - May 2022). Data collected through electronic patient record and PACS. Variables included age, WFNS scale, aneurysm site, treatment, the timing of CTP, radiologist report, and DCI management. Results: Over eight years, 916 patients were treated for aneurysmal SAH; this study focused on 466 patients that were randomly selected. Of this sample, 181 (38.84%) had one or more CTP scans following brain aneurysm treatment (Total 318). The first CTP scan in each patient was performed at 1-20 days following ictus (median 4 days). There was radiological evidence of DCI in 83, and no reversible ischaemia was found in 80. Findings were equivocal in the remaining 18. Of the 103 patients treated with clipping, 49 had DCI radiological evidence, in comparison to 31 of 69 patients treated with endovascular embolization. The remaining 9 patients are either unsecured aneurysms or non-aneurysmal SAH. Of the patients with radiological evidence of DCI, 65 had a treatment change following the CTP directed at improving cerebral perfusion. In contrast, treatment was not changed for (61) patients without radiological evidence of DCI. Conclusion: CTP is a useful adjunct to clinical assessment in the diagnosis of DCI and is helpful in identifying patients that may benefit from intensive therapy and those in whom it is unlikely to be effective.

Keywords: SAH, vasospasm, aneurysm, delayed cerebral ischemia

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Authors: A. Graa, I. Ziane, F. Benhamida, S. Souag

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This paper presents a comparative analysis study of an efficient and reliable quadratic programming (QP) to solve economic load dispatch (ELD) problem with considering transmission losses in a power system. The proposed QP method takes care of different unit and system constraints to find optimal solution. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed QP solution, simulations have been performed using Algerian test system. Results obtained with the QP method have been compared with other existing relevant approaches available in literatures. Experimental results show a proficiency of the QP method over other existing techniques in terms of robustness and its optimal search.

Keywords: economic dispatch, quadratic programming, Algerian network, dynamic load

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Authors: Tali Capua, Karin Hermon, Miguel Glatstein, Oren Tavor, Ayelet Rimon

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Background: Electric bicycles (E-bikes) are one of a wide range of light electric vehicles that provide convenient local transportation and attractive recreational opportunities. Along with their growing use worldwide, the E-bike related injury rate increases. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to specifically compare E-bike with classic bicycle related injuries in children. Methods: Data of all pediatric ( < 16 years of age) bicycle related injuries presenting to an urban level I trauma center between 2014 and 2015 were collected and analyzed. The recorded data included age, gender, details of the accident, as well severity of injury, medical diagnosis, and the outcome. Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS) and Injury Severity Score (ISS) were calculated for each patient. Data of E-bike related injuries and classic bicycle were then compared. Results: A total of 124 bicycle related injuries and 97 E-bike related injuries presented to the emergency department. Once pedestrians and bicycle passengers were removed, the groups of riders consisted of 111 bikers and 85 E-bikers. The mean age of bikers was 9.9 years (range 3-16 years) and of E-bikers was 13.7 years (range 7.5-16 years). Injuries to the head and the extremities were common in both groups. Compared to bikers, E-bikers had significantly more injuries to intra-abdominal organs (p = 0.04). Twenty patients (16%) with bicycle related injuries were admitted, and 13 (15%) patients with E-bike related injuries, of the latter group four underwent surgical intervention. ISS scores were low overall, but the injuries of higher severity (ISS > 9) were among the E-bikers. Conclusions: This study provides unique information which suggests that injuries in E-bikers tend to be more severe than in classic bikers. There is a need for regulation regarding the use of E-bikes to enhance the safety of both bikers and other road and pavement users.

Keywords: bicycle, electric bicycle, injury, pediatric, trauma

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Authors: Sopana Wongtawee

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Purpose: Adequate bowel cleansing is essential for a high quality, effective and safe colonoscopy. The aims of this study were to compare the efficacy of bowel preparation based on a low-residue diet before 8:00 followed by a clear-liquid diet, and a low-residue diet until 16:00 one day before colonoscopy using sodium phosphate solution (Xubil ®), the side effects of the two protocols and the patient satisfaction with them. Method: This was an endoscopist-blinded, prospective, randomized, controlled trial. A total of 224 patients (112 in each group) scheduled for outpatient colonoscopy met the criteria.They were randomized to either a low-residue diet consisting of white rice porridge with either fish, chicken or eggs before 8:00 followed by a clear-liquid diet (Group 1) or a low-residue diet consisting of the same food and drink, until 16:00 the day before colonoscopy(Group 2). All of them received 45 ml of sodium phosphate solution (Xubil ®) and three glasses of water (300 ml/glass) the evening before and the morning of the procedure. The cleansing efficacy of bowel preparation was rated according to the modified Rajawithi hospital bowel preparation score scale, patient satisfaction with bowel preparation was rated using Likert scale, and side effects of the 2 protocols was assessed using a patient questionnaire. Results: The cleansing efficacy between the two groups was significantly different (p=0.02). Satisfaction with bowel preparation and side effects were not different, except for the feeling of hunger in the first group (p=0.001). Conclusion: The low-residue diet consisting of white rice porridge with fish, chicken or eggs until 16:00 one day before colonoscopy achieved a better bowel-cleansing efficacy than the protocol consisting of clear liquid all day and rice porridge only before 8:00 one day before colonoscopy.

Keywords: bowel preparation, colonoscopy, sodium phosphate solution, nursing management

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Authors: Thaminda Liyanage, Anuga Liyanage, Chamila Kurukulasuriya, Sidath Bandara

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Background: The burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is growing rapidly around the world, particularly in Asia. Over the last two decades Sri Lanka has experienced an epidemic of CKD with ever growing number of patients pursuing medical care due to CKD and its complications, specially in the “Mahaweli” river basin in north central region of the island nation. This was apparently a new form of CKD which was not attributable to conventional risk factors such as diabetes mellitus, hypertension or infection and widely termed as “CKD-unknown” or “CKDu”. In the past decade a number of small scale studies were conducted to determine the aetiology, prevalence and complications of CKDu in North Central region. These hospital-based studies did not provide an accurate estimate of the problem as merely 10% or less of the people with CKD are aware of their diagnosis even in developed countries with better access to medical care. Interestingly, similar observations were made on the changing epidemiology of obesity in the region but no formal study was conducted to date to determine the magnitude of obesity burden. Moreover, if increasing obesity in the region is associated with CKD epidemic is yet to be explored. Methods: We will conduct an area wide cross sectional survey among all adult residents of the “Mahaweli” development project area 5, in the North Central Province of Sri Lanka. We will collect relevant medical history, anthropometric measurements, blood and urine for hematological and biochemical analysis. We expect a participation rate of 75%-85% of all eligible participants. Participation in the study is voluntary, there will be no incentives provided for participation. Every analysis will be conducted in a central laboratory and data will be stored securely. We will calculate the prevalence of obesity and chronic kidney disease, overall and by stage using total number of participants as the denominator and report per 1000 population. The association of obesity and CKD will be assessed with regression models and will be adjusted for potential confounding factors and stratified by potential effect modifiers where appropriate. Results: This study will provide accurate information on the prevalence of obesity and CKD in the region. Furthermore, this will explore the association between obesity and CKD, although causation may not be confirmed. Conclusion: Obesity and CKD are increasingly recognized as major public health problems in Sri Lanka. Clearly, documenting the magnitude of the problem is the essential first step. Our study will provide this vital information enabling the government to plan a coordinated response to tackle both obesity and CKD in the region.

Keywords: BMI, Chronic Kidney Disease, obesity, Sri Lanka

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Authors: Nita Nurlaila Kadarwaty

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Purpose: This study presents a rare case of bilateral Acute Primary Angle Closure Glaucoma (PACG). Method: A case report of a 64-year-old woman with a good outcome Acute PACG in both eyes who underwent phacotrabeculectomy surgery. Result: A 64-year-old woman complained of acute pain in both eyes, accompanied by decreased vision, photophobia, and seeing halos for three weeks. There was no history of trauma, steroid or other systemic drugs used, or intraocular surgery before. Ophthalmologic examination revealed a right eye (RE) visual acuity of 0.1, left eye (LE) 0.2. RE intraocular pressure (IOP) was 12 mmhg and LE: 36.4 mmHg in medication of timolol maleat ED and acetazolamide oral. Both eyes' anterior segments revealed mixed injection, corneal edema, shallow anterior chamber, posterior synechiae, mid-dilatation pupil with negative pupillary reflection, and cloudy lens without intumescent. There was a glaucomatous optic and closed iridocorneal angle on the gonioscopy. Initial treatments included oral acetazolamide and potassium aspartate 250 mg three times a day, timolol maleate ED 0.5% twice a day, and prednisolone acetate ED 1% four times a day. This patient underwent trabeculectomy, phacoemulsification, and implantation of IOL in both eyes. One week after the surgeries, both eyes showed decreased IOP and good visual improvement. Conclusion: Bilateral simultaneous Acute PACG is generally severe and results in a poor outcome. It causes rapidly progressive visual loss and is often irreversible. Phacotrabeculectomy has more benefits compared to only phacoemulsification for the intervention regarding the reduced IOP post-surgical.

Keywords: acute primary angle closure glaucoma, intraocular pressure, phacotrabeculectomy, glaucoma

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Authors: Polychronis Kapalidis

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In recent years, researchers have started to turn their attention to cyber security and maritime security independently, neglecting, in most cases, to examine the areas where these two critical issues are intertwined. The impact of cybersecurity issues on the maritime economy is emerging dramatically. Maritime transport and all related activities are conducted by technology-intensive platforms, which today rely heavily on information systems. The paper’s argument is that when no defense is completely effective against cyber attacks, it is vital to test responses to the inevitable incursions. Hence, preparedness in the form of testing existing cybersecurity structure via different tools for potential attacks is vital for minimizing risks. Traditional criminal activities may further be facilitated and evolved through the misuse of cyberspace. Kidnap, piracy, fraud, theft of cargo and imposition of ransomware are the major of these activities that mainly target the industry’s most valuable asset; the ship. The paper, adopting a case-study analysis, based on stakeholder consultation and secondary data analysis, namely policy and strategic-related documentation, presents the importance of holistic testing in the sector. Arguing that poor understanding of the issue leads to the adoption of ineffective policies the paper will present the level of awareness within the industry and assess the risks and vulnerabilities of ships to these cybercriminal activities. It will conclude by suggesting that testing procedures must be focused on three main pillars within the maritime transport sector: the human factor, the infrastructure, and the procedures.

Keywords: cybercrime, cybersecurity, organized crime, risk mitigation

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Authors: Osama Zayed

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Aim of the work: The aim of this study is to assess the predictors of pelvic vascular injuries in patients with pelvic fractures from major blunt trauma. Methods: This study was conducted as a tool-assessment study. Forty six patients with pelvic fractures from major blunt trauma will be recruited to the study arriving to department of emergency, Suez Canal University Hospital. Data were collected from questionnaire including; personal data of the studied patients and full medical history, clinical examinations, outcome measures (The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enumeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM), laboratory and imaging studies. Patients underwent surgical interventions or further investigations based on the conventional standards for interventions. All patients were followed up during conservative, operative and post-operative periods in the hospital for interpretation the predictive scores of vascular injuries. Results: Significant predictors of vascular injuries according to computed tomography (CT) scan include age, male gender, lower Glasgow coma (GCS) scores, occurrence of hypotension, mortality rate, higher physical POSSUM scores, presence of ultrasound collection, type of management, higher systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) POSSUM scores, presence of abdominal injuries, and poor outcome. Conclusions: There was higher frequency of males than females in the studied patients. There were high probability of morbidity and low probability of mortality among patients. Our study demonstrates that POSSUM score can be used as a predictor of vascular injury in pelvis fracture patients.

Keywords: predictors, pelvic vascular injuries, pelvic fractures, major blunt trauma, POSSUM

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Authors: Man-Yu Wong, Siyu Zhou, Zhiqiang Cao

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In quality of life, health service utilization is an important determinant of medical resource expenditures on Colorectal cancer (CRC) care, a better understanding of the increased utilization of health services is essential for optimizing the allocation of healthcare resources to services and thus for enhancing the service quality, especially for high expenditure on CRC care like Hong Kong region. In assessing the association between the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and health service utilization in patients with colorectal neoplasm, count data models can be used, which account for over dispersion or extra zero counts. In our data, the HRQOL evaluation is a self-reported measure obtained from a questionnaire completed by the patients, misreports and variations in the data are inevitable. Besides, there are more zero counts from the observed number of clinical consultations (observed frequency of zero counts = 206) than those from a Poisson distribution with mean equal to 1.33 (expected frequency of zero counts = 156). This suggests that excess of zero counts may exist. Therefore, we study tests for detecting zero-inflation in models with measurement error in covariates. Method: Under classical measurement error model, the approximate likelihood function for zero-inflation Poisson regression model can be obtained, then Approximate Maximum Likelihood Estimation(AMLE) can be derived accordingly, which is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. By calculating score function and Fisher information based on AMLE, a score test is proposed to detect zero-inflation effect in ZIP model with measurement error. The proposed test follows asymptotically standard normal distribution under H0, and it is consistent with the test proposed for zero-inflation effect when there is no measurement error. Results: Simulation results show that empirical power of our proposed test is the highest among existing tests for zero-inflation in ZIP model with measurement error. In real data analysis, with or without considering measurement error in covariates, existing tests, and our proposed test all imply H0 should be rejected with P-value less than 0.001, i.e., zero-inflation effect is very significant, ZIP model is superior to Poisson model for analyzing this data. However, if measurement error in covariates is not considered, only one covariate is significant; if measurement error in covariates is considered, only another covariate is significant. Moreover, the direction of coefficient estimations for these two covariates is different in ZIP regression model with or without considering measurement error. Conclusion: In our study, compared to Poisson model, ZIP model should be chosen when assessing the association between condition-specific HRQOL and health service utilization in patients with colorectal neoplasm. and models taking measurement error into account will result in statistically more reliable and precise information.

Keywords: count data, measurement error, score test, zero inflation

Procedia PDF Downloads 288

Authors: Le Jiang, Chua Jinxing

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Introduction: The recent outbreak of Ebola virus disease in the west Africa has drawn global concern. With a high fatality rate and direct human-to-human transmission, it has spread between countries and caused great damages for patients and family who are affected. Being the designated hospital to manage epidemic outbreak in Singapore, Tan Tock Seng Hospital (TTSH) is facing great challenges in preparation and managing of potential outbreak of emerging infectious disease such as Ebola virus disease. Aim: We conducted an infection control drill in TTSH emergency department to assess the readiness of healthcare and allied health workers in managing suspected Ebola patients. It also helps to review current Ebola clinical protocol and work instruction to ensure more smooth and safe practice in managing Ebola patients in TTSH emergency department. Result: General preparedness level of staffs involved in managing Ebola virus disease in TTSH emergency department is not adequate. Knowledge deficits of staffs on Ebola personal protective equipment gowning and degowning process increase the risk of potential cross contamination in patient care. Loopholes are also found in current clinical protocol, such as unclear instructions and inaccurate information, which need to be revised to promote better staff performance in patient management. Logistic issues such as equipment dysfunction and inadequate supplies can lead to ineffective communication among teams and causing harm to patients in emergency situation. Conclusion: The infection control drill identified the need for more well-structured and clear clinical protocols to be in place to promote participants performance. In addition to quality protocols and guidelines, systemic training and annual refresher for all staffs in the emergency department are essential to prepare staffs for the outbreak of Ebola virus disease. Collaboration and communication with allied health staffs are also crucial for smooth delivery of patient care and minimising the potential human suffering, properties loss or injuries caused by disease. Therefore, more clinical drills with collaboration among various departments involved are recommended to be conducted in the future to monitor and assess readiness of TTSH emergency department in managing Ebola virus disease.

Keywords: ebola, emergency department, infection control drill, Tan Tock Seng Hospital

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Alex Kiselyov, Suehyun Cho, Darrell Harrington; Florent Cros, Olin Palmer, John Caputo, Michael Kardosh, Eran Oren, William Loudon, Michael Shpigelmacher

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Despite the most aggressive surgical and adjuvant therapeutic strategies, treatment of both pediatric and adult brainstem tumors remains problematic. Novel strategies, including targeted biologics, immunotherapy, and specialized delivery systems such as convection-enhanced delivery (CED), have been proposed. While some of these novel treatments are entering phase I trials, the field is still in need of treatment(s) that exhibits dramatically enhanced potency with optimal therapeutic ratio. Bionaut Labs has developed a modular microrobotic platform for performing localized delivery of diverse therapeutics in vivo. Our biocompatible particles (Bionauts™) are externally propelled and visualized in real-time. Bionauts™ are specifically designed to enhance the effect of radiation therapy via anatomically precise delivery of a radiosensitizing agent, as exemplified by temozolomide (TMZ) and Avastin™ to the brainstem gliomas of diverse origin. The treatment protocol is designed to furnish a better therapeutic outcome due to the localized (vs systemic) delivery of the drug to the neoplastic lesion(s) for use as a synergistic combination of radiation and radiosensitizing agent. In addition, the procedure is minimally invasive and is expected to be appropriate for both adult and pediatric patients. Current progress, including platform optimization, selection of the lead radiosensitizer as well as in vivo safety studies of the Bionauts™ in large animals, specifically the spine and the brain of porcine and ovine models, will be discussed.

Keywords: Bionaut, brainstem, glioma, local delivery, micro-robot, radiosensitizer

Procedia PDF Downloads 195

Authors: M. A. Askari, M. A. Nazari, P. Perrier, Y. Payan

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Growth and remodeling of biological structures have gained lots of attention over the past decades. Determining the response of the living tissues to the mechanical loads is necessary for a wide range of developing fields such as, designing of prosthetics and optimized surgery operations. It is a well-known fact that biological structures are never stress-free, even when externally unloaded. The exact origin of these residual stresses is not clear, but theoretically growth and remodeling is one of the main sources. Extracting body organs from medical imaging, does not produce any information regarding the existing residual stresses in that organ. The simplest cause of such stresses is the gravity since an organ grows under its influence from its birth. Ignoring such residual stresses might cause erroneous results in numerical simulations. Accounting for residual stresses due to tissue growth can improve the accuracy of mechanical analysis results. In this paper, we have implemented a computational framework based on fixed-point iteration to determine the residual stresses due to growth. Using nonlinear continuum mechanics and the concept of fictitious configuration we find the unknown stress-free reference configuration which is necessary for mechanical analysis. To illustrate the method, we apply it to a finite element model of healthy human face whose geometry has been extracted from medical images. We have computed the distribution of residual stress in facial tissues, which can overcome the effect of gravity and cause that tissues remain firm. Tissue wrinkles caused by aging could be a consequence of decreasing residual stress and not counteracting the gravity. Considering these stresses has important application in maxillofacial surgery. It helps the surgeons to predict the changes after surgical operations and their consequences.

Keywords: growth, soft tissue, residual stress, finite element method

Procedia PDF Downloads 355

Authors: Ayesha Khatun

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In 21st century where markets are unstable, technologies rapidly proliferate, competitors multiply, products and services become obsolete almost overnight and customers demand low cost high value product, leveraging and harnessing knowledge is not just a potential source of competitive advantage rather a necessity in technology based and information intensive industries. Knowledge management focuses on leveraging the available knowledge and sharing the same among the individuals in the organization so that the employees can make best use of it towards achieving the organizational goals. Knowledge is not a discrete object. It is embedded in people and so difficult to transfer outside the immediate context that it becomes a major competitive advantage. However, internal transfer of knowledge among the employees is essential to maximize the use of knowledge available in the organization in an unstructured manner. But as knowledge is the source of competitive advantage for the organization it is also the source of competitive advantage for the individuals. People think that knowledge is power and sharing the same may lead to lose the competitive position. Moreover, the very nature of tacit knowledge poses many difficulties in sharing the same. But sharing tacit knowledge is the vital part of knowledge management process because it is the tacit knowledge which is inimitable. Knowledge management has been made synonymous with the use of software and technology leading to the management of explicit knowledge only ignoring personal interaction and forming of informal networks which are considered as the most successful means of sharing tacit knowledge. Factors responsible for effective sharing of tacit knowledge are grouped into –individual, organizational and technological factors. Different factors under each category have been identified. Creating a positive organizational culture, encouraging personal interaction, practicing reward system are some of the strategies that can help to overcome many of the barriers to effective sharing of tacit knowledge. Methodology applied here is completely secondary. Extensive review of relevant literature has been undertaken for the purpose.

Keywords: knowledge, tacit knowledge, knowledge management, sustainable competitive advantage, organization, knowledge sharing

Procedia PDF Downloads 398

Authors: Bhaskar M. Murai, Neeraj Banchor, Ishveen Chabbra, Madhusudhan Nadgir, S. Vidhya

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Sol-gel technology combined with electronics and biochemistry helps to overcome the problems caused by mosquitoes by developing a portable, low-cost device which enables controlled release of trapped compound inside it. It is a wet-chemical technique which is used primarily for fabrication of silicate gel which is usually allowed to dry as per requirement. The outcome is solid rock hard material which is porous and has lots of applications in different fields. Taking porosity as a key factor, allethrin a naturally occurring synthetic compound with molecular mass 302.40 was entrapped inside the sol-gel matrix as a dopant. Allethrin is commonly used as an insecticide and is a key ingredient in commercially available mosquitoes repellent in Asian and subtropical countries. It has low toxicity for humans and birds, and are used in many household insecticides such as RAID as well as mosquito coils. They are however highly toxic to fish and bees. Insects subject to its exposure become paralyzed (nervous system effect) before dying. They are also used as an ultra-low volume spray for outdoor mosquito control. Therefore, there is a need for controlled release of allethrin in the environment. For controlled release of allethrin from sol-gel matrix, its (allethrin) we utilized temperature based controlled evaporation through porous sol-gel. Different types of fabric like cotton, Terri-cotton, polyester, surgical cap, knee-cap etc are studied and the best with maximum absorption capacity is selected to hold the sol-gel matrix with maximum quantity. For sol-gel coating 2 x 2cm cloth pieces are dipped in sol-gel solution for 10 minutes and by calculating the weight difference we concluded that Terri cotton is best suitable for our project. An electronic circuit with heating plate is developed in to test the controlled release of compound. An oscillatory circuit is used to produce the required heat.

Keywords: sol-gel, allethrin, TEOS, biochemistry

Procedia PDF Downloads 375

Authors: Sujitra Ruengdechawiwat, Robert Molloy, Jintana Siripitayananon, Runglawan Somsunan, Paul D. Topham, Brian J. Tighe

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The main aim of this research has been to design and synthesize some completely soluble liquid tin(II) alkoxide initiators for use in the ring-opening polymerisation (ROP) of cyclic ester monomers. This is in contrast to conventional tin(II) alkoxides in solid form which tend to be molecular aggregates and difficult to dissolve. The liquid initiators prepared were bis(tin(II) monooctoate) diethylene glycol ([Sn(Oct)]2DEG) and bis(tin(II) monooctoate) ethylene glycol ([Sn(Oct)]2EG). Their efficiencies as initiators in the bulk ROP of ε-caprolactone (CL) at 130oC were studied kinetically by dilatometry. Kinetic data over the 20-70% conversion range was used to construct both first-order and zero-order rate plots. It was found that the rate data fitted more closely to first-order kinetics with respect to the monomer concentration and gave higher first-order rate constants than the corresponding tin(II) octoate/diol initiating systems normally used to generate the tin(II) alkoxide in situ. Since the ultimate objective of this work is to produce copolymers suitable for biomedical use as absorbable monofilament surgical sutures, poly(L-lactide-co-ε-caprolactone) 75:25 mol %, P(LL-co-CL), copolymers were synthesized using both solid and liquid tin(II) alkoxide initiators at 130°C for 48 hrs. The statistical copolymers were obtained in near-quantitative yields with compositions (from 1H-NMR) close to the initial comonomer feed ratios. The monomer sequencing (from 13C-NMR) was partly random and partly blocky (gradient-type) due to the much differing monomer reactivity ratios (rLL >> rCL). From GPC, the copolymers obtained using the soluble liquid tin(II) alkoxides were found to have higher molecular weights (Mn = 40,000-100,000) than those from the only partially soluble solid initiators (Mn = 30,000-52,000).

Keywords: biodegradable polyesters, poly(L-lactide-co-ε-caprolactone), ring-opening polymerisation, tin(II) alkoxide

Procedia PDF Downloads 194

Authors: A. Kherraf, M. Bouziane, A. Drighil, L. Azzouzi, R. Habbal

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Objective: Myxomas are rare heart tumors most commonly found in the left atrium. The purpose of this observation is to report a rare case of myxoma of the right atrium revealed by pulmonary embolism. Observation: A 34-year-old patient with no history presented to the emergency room with sudden onset dyspnea. Clinical examination showed arterial pressure at 110/70mmHg, tachycardia at 110bpm, and 90% oxygen saturation. The ECG enrolled in incomplete right bundle branch block. The radio-thorax was normal. Echocardiography revealed the presence of a large homogeneous intra-OD mass, contiguous to the inter-atrial septum, prolapsing through the tricuspid valve, and causing mild tricuspid insufficiency, with dilation of the right ventricle and retained systolic function with PAPs estimated at 45mmHg. A chest scan was performed, revealing the presence of right segmental pulmonary embolism. The patient was put under anticoagulant and underwent surgical resection of the mass; its pathological examination concluded to a myxoma. The post-operative consequences were simple, without recurrence of the mass after one year follow-up. Discussion: Myxomas represent 50% of heart tumors. Most often, they originate in the left atrium, and more rarely in the right atrium or the ventricles. Myxoma of the right atrium can be responsible for life-threatening pulmonary embolism. The most predictive factor for embolization remains the morphology of the myxomas; papillary or villous myxomas are the most friable. Surgery is the standard treatment, with regular postoperative follow-up to detect recurrence. Conclusion: Myxomas of the right atrium are a rare location for these tumors. Pulmonary embolism is the main complication and should routinely involve careful study of the right chambers on echocardiography.

Keywords: pulmonary embolism, myxoma, right atrium, heart tumors

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Ilyas Khan. Liliane Pintelon, Harry Martin, Michael Shömig

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The increasing costs of healthcare on one hand, and the rise in aging population and associated chronic disease, on the other hand, are putting increasing burden on the current health care system in many Western countries. For instance, chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common disease and in Europe, the cost of renal replacement therapy (RRT) is very significant to the total health care cost. However, the recent advancement in healthcare technology, provide the opportunity to treat patients at home in their own comfort. It is evident that home healthcare offers numerous advantages apparently, low costs and high patients’ quality of life. Despite these advantages, the intake of home hemodialysis (HHD) therapy is still low in particular in Germany. Many factors are accounted for the low number of HHD intake. However, this paper is focusing on patients’ safety-related factors of current HHD practices in Germany. The aim of this paper is to analyze the current HHD practices in Germany and to identify risks related factors if any exist. A case study has been conducted in a dialysis center which consists of four dialysis centers in the south of Germany. In total, these dialysis centers have 350 chronic dialysis patients, of which, four patients are on HHD. The centers have 126 staff which includes six nephrologists and 120 other staff i.e. nurses and administration. The results of the study revealed several risk-related factors. Most importantly, these centers do not offer allied health services at the pre-dialysis stage, the HHD training did not have an established curriculum; however, they have just recently developed the first version. Only a soft copy of the machine manual is offered to patients. Surprisingly, the management was not aware of any standard available for home assessment and installation. The home assessment is done by a third party (i.e. the machines and equipment provider) and they may not consider the hygienic quality of the patient’s home. The type of machine provided to patients at home is similar to the one in the center. The model may not be suitable at home because of its size and complexity. Even though portable hemodialysis machines, which are specially designed for home use, are available in the market such as the NxStage series. Besides the type of machine, no assistance is offered for space management at home in particular for placing the machine. Moreover, the centers do not offer remote assistance to patients and their carer at home. However, telephonic assistance is available. Furthermore, no alternative is offered if a carer is not available. In addition, the centers are lacking medical staff including nephrologists and renal nurses.

Keywords: home hemodialysis, home hemodialysis practices, patients’ related risks in the current home hemodialysis practices, patient safety in home hemodialysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Hsiang-Chun Lai, Hsien-Yin Liao, Yi-Wen Lin

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Migraine is a primary headache disorder which presented as recurrent and moderate to severe headaches and affects nearly fifteen percent of people’s daily life. In East Asia, acupuncture is a common treatment for migraine prevention. Acupuncture can modulate migraine through both peripheral and central mechanism and decrease the allodynia process. Molecular pathway suggests that acupuncture relief migraine by regulating neurotransmitters/neuromodulators. This process was also proven by neural imaging. Acupuncture decrease the headache frequency and intensity compared to routine care. We also review the most common chosen acupoints to treat migraine and its treatment protocol. As a result, we suggested that acupuncture can serve as an option to migraine treatment and prevention. However, more studies are needed to establish the mechanism and therapeutic roles of acupuncture in treating migraine.

Keywords: acupuncture, allodynia, headache, migraine

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Dr. Jenit Gandhi, Dr. Manojith SS, Dr. Nakul GV, Dr. Sharath Honnani, Dr. Shaurav Ghosh, Dr. Neel Shetty, Dr. Nagabhushan JS, Dr. Manish Joshi

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Introduction: Acute pancreatitis is an inflammatory condition of the pancreas which begins in pancreatic acinar cells and triggers local inflammation that may progress to systemic inflammatory response (SIRS) and causing distant organ involvement and its function and ending up with multiple organ dysfunction syndromes (MODS). Aim: A comparative study in acute pancreatitis to find out the effectiveness of early addition of Ulinastatin to current standard care in Indian subjects . Methodology: A current prospective observational study is done during study period of 1year (Dec 2018 –Dec 2019) duration to evaluate the effect of early addition of Ulinastatin to the current standard treatment and its efficacy to reduce the early complication, analgesic requirement and duration of hospital stay in patients with Acute Pancreatitis. Results: In the control group 25 were males and 05 were females. In the test group 18 were males and 12 females. Majority was in the age group between 30 - 70 yrs of age with >50% in the 30-50yrs age group in both test and control groups. The VAS was median grade 3 in control group as compared to median grade 2 in test group , the pain was more in the initial 2 days in test group compared to 4 days in test group , the analgesic requirement was used for more in control group (median 6) to test group( median 3 days ). On follow up after 5 days for a period of 2 weeks none of the patients in the test group developed any complication. Where as in the control group 8 patients developed pleural effusion, 04-Pseudopancreatic cyst, 02 – patient developed portal vein and splenic vein thrombosis, 02 patients – ventilator with ARDS which were treated symptomatically whereas in test group 02 patient developed pleural effusions and 01 pseudo pancreatic cyst with splenic artery aneurysm, 01 – patient with AKI and MODS symptomatically treated. The duration of hospital stay for a median period of 4 days (2 – 7 days) in test group and 7 days (4 -10 days) in control group. All patients were able to return to normal work on an average of 5days compared 8days in control group, the difference was significant. Conclusion:The study concluded that early addition of Ulinastatin to current standard treatment of acute Pancreatitis is effective in reducing pain, early complication and duration of hospital stay in Indian subject

Keywords: Ulinastatin, VAS – visual analogue score , AKI – acute kidney injury , ARDS – acute respiratory distress syndrome

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: John Okanda Okwaro

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Carbon (IV) oxide (CO₂) is emitted majorly from fossil fuel combustion and industrial production. The sources of interest of carbon (IV) oxide in the study area are mining activities, transport systems, and industrial processes. This study is aimed at building models that will help in monitoring the emissions within the study area. Three scenarios were discussed, namely: pessimistic scenario, business-as-usual scenario, and optimistic scenario. The result showed that there was a reduction in carbon dioxide concentration by approximately 50.5 ppm between March 2020 and January 2021 inclusive. This is majorly due to reduced human activities that led to decreased consumption of energy. Also, the CO₂ concentration trend follows the business-as-usual scenario (BAU) path. From the models, the pessimistic, business-as-usual, and optimistic scenarios give CO₂ concentration of about 545.9 ppm, 408.1 ppm, and 360.1 ppm, respectively, on December 31st, 2021. This research helps paint the picture to the policymakers of the relationship between energy sources and CO₂ emissions. Since the reduction in CO₂ emission was due to decreased use of fossil fuel as there was a decrease in economic activities, then if Kenya relies more on green energy than fossil fuel in the post-COVID-19 period, there will be more CO₂ emission reduction. That is, the CO₂ concentration trend is likely to follow the optimistic scenario path, hence a reduction in CO₂ concentration of about 48 ppm by the end of the year 2021. This research recommends investment in solar energy by energy-intensive companies, mine machinery and equipment maintenance, investment in electric vehicles, and doubling tree planting efforts to achieve the 10% cover.

Keywords: forecasting, greenhouse gas, green energy, hierarchical data format

Procedia PDF Downloads 168