Search results for: contingency theory approach

Authors: Sangdeok Lee, Sangwon Han, Changtaek Hyun

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Construction defects are major components that result in negative impacts on project performance including schedule delays and cost overruns. Since construction defects generally occur when a few associated causes combine, a thorough understanding of defect causality is required in order to more systematically prevent construction defects. To address this issue, this paper uses association rule mining (ARM) to quantify the causality between defect causes, and social network analysis (SNA) to find indirect causality among them. The suggested approach is validated with 350 defect instances from concrete works in 32 projects in Korea. The results show that the interrelationships revealed by the approach reflect the characteristics of the concrete task and the important causes that should be prevented.

Keywords: causality, defect causes, social network analysis, association rule mining

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Authors: Tsietsi J. Pilusa, Tumisang G. Seodigeng

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This study evaluates the benefits of advanced waste management practices in unlocking waste-to-energy opportunities within the solid waste industry. The key drivers of sustainable waste management practices, specifically with respect to packaging waste-to-energy technology options are discussed. The success of a waste-to-energy system depends significantly on the appropriateness of available technologies, including those that are well established as well as those that are less so. There are hard and soft interventions to be considered when packaging an integrated waste treatment solution. Technology compatibility with variation in feedstock (waste) quality and quantities remains a key factor. These factors influence the technology reliability in terms of production efficiencies and product consistency, which in turn, drives the supply and demand network. Waste treatment technologies rely on the waste material as feedstock; the feedstock varies in quality and quantities depending on several factors; hence, the technology fails, as a result. It is critical to design an advanced waste treatment technology in an integrated approach to minimize the possibility of technology failure due to unpredictable feedstock quality, quantities, conversion efficiencies, and inconsistent product yield or quality. An integrated waste-to-energy approach offers a secure system design that considers sustainable waste management practices.

Keywords: emerging markets, evaluation tool, interventions, waste treatment technologies

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Authors: Neda Nabid

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Friction-based supplemental devices have been extensively used for seismic protection and strengthening of structures, however, the conventional use of these dampers may not necessarily lead to an efficient structural performance. Conventionally designed friction dampers follow a uniform height-wise distribution pattern of slip load values for more practical simplicity. This can lead to localizing structural damage in certain story levels, while the other stories accommodate a negligible amount of relative displacement demand. A practical performance-based optimization methodology is developed to tackle with structural damage localization of RC frame buildings with friction energy dissipation devices under severe earthquakes. The proposed methodology is based on the concept of uniform damage distribution theory. According to this theory, the slip load values of the friction dampers redistribute and shift from stories with lower relative displacement demand to the stories with higher inter-story drifts to narrow down the discrepancy between the structural damage levels in different stories. In this study, the efficacy of the proposed design methodology is evaluated through the seismic performance of five different low to high-rise RC frames equipped with friction wall dampers under six real spectrum-compatible design earthquakes. The results indicate that compared to the conventional design, using the suggested methodology to design friction wall systems can lead to, by average, up to 40% reduction of maximum inter-story drift; and incredibly more uniform height-wise distribution of relative displacement demands under the design earthquakes.

Keywords: friction damper, nonlinear dynamic analysis, RC structures, seismic performance, structural damage

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Authors: Bhavani Veasuvalingam

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Case-based learning (CBL) is a popular instructional method aimed to bridge theory to clinical practice. This study aims to explore CBL mixed modality curriculum in influencing students’ learning styles and strategies that support learning. An explanatory sequential mixed method study was employed with initial phase, 44-itemed Felderman’s Index of Learning Style (ILS) questionnaire employed across year one medical students (n=142) using convenience sampling to describe the preferred learning styles. The qualitative phase utilised three focus group discussions (FGD) to explore in depth on the multimodal learning style exhibited by the students. Most students preferred combination of learning stylesthat is reflective, sensing, visual and sequential i.e.: RSVISeq style (24.64%) from the ILS analysis. The frequency of learning preference from processing to understanding were well balanced, with sequential-global domain (66.2%); sensing-intuitive (59.86%), active- reflective (57%), and visual-verbal (51.41%). The qualitative data reported three major themes, namely Theme 1: CBL mixed modalities navigates learners’ learning style; Theme 2: Multimodal learners active learning strategies supports learning. Theme 3: CBL modalities facilitating theory into clinical knowledge. Both quantitative and qualitative study strongly reports the multimodal learning style of the year one medical students. Medical students utilise multimodal learning styles to attain the clinical knowledge when learning with CBL mixed modalities. Educators’ awareness of the multimodal learning style is crucial in delivering the CBL mixed modalities effectively, considering strategic pedagogical support students to engage and learn CBL in bridging the theoretical knowledge into clinical practice.

Keywords: case-based learning, learnign style, medical students, learning

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Authors: Themistoklis Tzimas

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The proposed paper focuses on a triangular relationship, between human security, human development and responsibility to rebuild. This relationship constitutes the innovative contribution to the debate about human security. Human security constitutes a generic and legally binding notion, which orientates from an integrated approach the UN Charter principles and of the collective security system. Such an approach brings at the forefront of international law and of international relations not only states but non- state actors as well. Several doctrines attempt to implement the fore-mentioned approach among which the Responsibility to Protect- hereinafter R2P- doctrine and its aspect of Responsibility to Rebuild- hereinafter R2R. In this sense, R2P in general and R2R are supposed to be guided by human security imperatives. Human security because of its human- centered approach encompasses as an integral part of it, human development. Human development constitutes part of the backbone of human security, since it deals with the social and economic root- causes of the threats, which human security attempts to confront. In this sense, doctrines which orientate from human security, such as R2P and its R2R aspect should also take into account human development imperatives, in order to improve their efficiency. On the contrary though, R2R is more often linked with market- orientated policies, which are often imposed under transitional authorities, regardless of local needs. The implementation of such policies can be identified as a cause for striking failures in the framework of R2R. In addition it is a misinterpretation of the essence of human security and subsequently of R2P as well. The findings of the article, on the basis of the fore-mentioned argument is that a change must take place from a market- orientated misinterpretation of R2R to an approach attempting to implement human development doctrines, since the latter lie at the heart of human security and can be proven more effective in dealing with the root- causes of conflicts. Methodologically, the article begins with an examination of human security and of its binding nature on the basis of its orientation from the UN Charter. It also examines its significance in the framework of the collective security system. Then, follows the analysis of why and how human development constitutes an integral part of human security. At the next part it is proven that R2P in general and R2R more specifically constitute or should constitute an attempt to implement human security doctrines within the collective security system. Having built this triangular relationship it is argued that human development is proven to be the most suitable notion, so that the spirit of human security and the scopes of R2P are successfully implemented.

Keywords: human security, un charter, responsibility to protect, responsibility to rebuild, human development

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Authors: Young Hee Geum

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We propose the numerical method defined by xn+1 = xn − λ[f(xn − μh(xn))/]f'(xn) , n ∈ N, and determine the control parameter λ and μ to converge cubically. In addition, we derive the asymptotic error constant. Applying this proposed scheme to various test functions, numerical results show a good agreement with the theory analyzed in this paper and are proven using Mathematica with its high-precision computability.

Keywords: asymptotic error constant, iterative method, multiple root, root-finding

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Authors: H. A. Bentounes, A. Abbad, W. Benstaali

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Using first principles calculations based on the density functional theory and local spin density approximation, we investigate optical properties of GaFeMnN quaternary compound. Results show that optical properties confirm that GaFeMnN can be a good candidate in the design of thin film solar cells in the visible and ultraviolet parts of the spectrum, and a good sensor in the infrared

Keywords: GaN, optical absorption, semi-metallic, dielectric function

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Authors: Pietro Mortini, Marco Losa

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Objective: Resection of large lesions growing into the third ventricle remains a demanding surgery, sometimes at risk of severe post-operative complications. Transcallosal and transcortical routes were considered as approaches of choice to access the third ventricle, however neurological consequences like memory loss have been reported. We report clinical results of the previously described combined interhemispheric sub-commissural translaminaterminalis approach (CISTA) for the resection of large lesions located in the third ventricle. Methods: Authors conducted a retrospective analysis on 10 patients, who were operated through the CISTA, for the resection of lesions growing into the third ventricle. Results: Total resection was achieved in all cases. Cognitive worsening occurred only in one case. No perioperative deaths were recorded and, at last follow-up, all patients were alive. One year after surgery 80% of patients had an excellent outcome with a KPS 100 and Glasgow Outcome score (GOS) Conclusion: The CISTA represents a safe and effective alternative to transcallosal and transcortical routes to resect lesions growing into the third ventricle. It allows for a multiangle trajectory to access the third ventricle with a wide working area free from critical neurovascular structures, without any section of the corpus callosum, the anterior commissure and the fornix.

Keywords: craniopharingioma, surgery, sub-commissural translaminaterminalis approach (CISTA),

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Authors: Lindsey Watson

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This research is aimed at facilitating and listening to the voices of younger children, recognising their contributions to research about the things that matter to them. Digital technology increasingly impacts on the lives of young children, therefore this study aimed at increasing children’s agency through recognising and involving their perspectives to help contribute to a wider understanding of younger children’s perceptions of online safety. Using a phenomenological approach, the paper discusses how storytelling as a creative methodological approach enabled an agentic space for children to express their views, knowledge, and perceptions of their engagement with the digital world. Setting and parental informed consent were gained in addition to an adapted approach to child assent through the use of child-friendly language and emoji stickers, which was also recorded verbally. Findings demonstrate that younger children are thinking about many aspects of digital technology and how this impacts on their lives and that storytelling as a research method is a useful tool to facilitate conversations with young children. The paper thus seeks to recognise and evaluate how creative methodologies can provide insights into children’s understanding of online safety and how this can influence practitioners and parents in supporting younger children in a digital world.

Keywords: early childhood, family, online safety, phenomenology, storytelling

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Authors: Jakia Rajoana

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The key aim of this research is to achieve Sustainable Rural Tourism (SRT) through women’s empowerment in the Sundarbans area of Bangladesh. Women in rural areas in developing countries depend on biomass for their survival and that of their family. Yet they have an unequal access to resources as well as decision making, thus making them more vulnerable to any changes in the environment. Women in the developing countries experience gender inequality which is culturally embedded resulting into women having less access to and control over financial and material resources, information, and also a lack of recognition of their contribution as compared to men. Their disadvantaged social position is augmented by their extreme poverty, little or no power they have over their own lives vis-à-vis the disproportionate burden they bear in reproduction and child-raising. Despite the significance of the need to pay attention to gender related issues in sustainable rural tourism (SRT), research remains rather scant. For instance, there is very little research that illustrates the role of women in tourism in the Sundarbans area. Thus empirically, this research seeks to fill a significant gap by focusing on rural areas and in particular focus on considerably under-researched area, namely the Sundarbans women’s role in tourism. In order to fully comprehend their experiences and life stories, this research will apply the empowerment theory and consider it along with the research on sustainable rural tourism. Since, women’s empowerment can act as a potential tool for SRT development and also examine the role tourism plays in the lives of Sundarbans’ women. Methodologically, this study will follow a qualitative research design using an ethnographic approach. Participant observation, semi- structured interviews, and documentation will be the primary data collection instruments in four communities – Shayamnagar, Koyra, Mongla and Sarankhola – in the Sundarbans area. It is hoped that by focusing on the life stories of these invisible women, research is better able to engage with nuances inherent in marginal and significantly under-researched communities.

Keywords: gender, sustainable rural tourism, women empowerment, Sundarbans

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Authors: Bernice Badal

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This article addresses a persistent challenge related to teacher agency in knowledge acquisition in professional development (PD) workshops in contexts of educational change, given that scholarship identifies a need for more teacher involvement and amplification of teacher's voices. Theoretical concepts are drawn from Bandura’s Social cognitive theory, incorporating the triadic causation model of agency to examine the reciprocal nature of the context, teacher characteristics, and systemic influences that shape how knowledge is transmitted and acquired in PD workshops. This qualitative study, using a mix of classroom observations and interviews, explored the political, contextual, and personal characteristics of teacher agency in PD through an analysis of data extracted from a PhD study. The narratives of six teachers from three township schools are examined to show how PD efforts in South Africa have failed to take account of the holistic development of teacher agency in knowledge dissemination and how this shapes teacher self-efficacy beliefs about being able to masterfully apply the tenets of the reform. Agency, teacher voice, and contextual considerations were used as markers of the quality of the training provided to understand how knowledge is acquired and meaning is made. The findings suggest that systemic influences of institutionally imposed PD offer partial understandings of the reform, which is offered in traditional formats that do not consider teacher empowerment in knowledge production and the development of teacher agency. Common in all the participants’ responses is the need for more information and training on the prescribed approach for teaching English as a second language; however, this paper holds the view that more information may not solve teachers’ dilemmas. Accordingly, it recommends a restructuring of the programme with facilitators being more cognisant of teacher agency for the development of transformative teachers. The findings of the study contribute to the field of teacher knowledge, teacher training, and professional development in the context of educational reforms.

Keywords: teacher professional development, teacher voice, teacher agency, educational reforms, teacher knowledge

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Authors: Yujie Wei

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Twitter uses a variety of narrative methods (e.g., messages, featured videos, music, and actual events) to strengthen its cultivation effect. Consumers are receiving mass-produced brand stores or images made by brand managers according to strict market specifications. Drawing on the cultivation theory, this quantitative research investigates how following a brand on Twitter for 12 weeks can cultivate their attitude toward the brand and influence their purchase intentions. We conducted three field experiments on Twitter to test the cultivation effects of following a brand for 12 weeks on consumer attitude toward the followed brand. The cultivation effects were measured by comparing the changes in consumer attitudes before and after they have followed a brand over time. The findings of our experiments suggest that when consumers are exposed to a brand’s stable, pervasive, and recurrent tweets on Twitter for 12 weeks, their attitude toward a brand can be significantly changed, which confirms the cultivating effects on consumer attitude. Also, the results indicate that branding activities on Twitter, when properly implemented, can be very effective in changing consumer attitudes toward a brand, increasing the purchase intentions, and increasing their willingness to spread the word-of-mouth for the brand on social media. The cultivation effects are moderated by brand type and consumer age. The research provides three major marketing implications. First, Twitter marketers should create unique content to engage their brand followers to change their brand attitude through steady, cumulative exposure to the branding activities on Twitter. Second, there is a significant moderating effect of brand type on the cultivation effects, so Twitter marketers should align their branding content with the brand type to better meet the needs and wants of consumers for different types of brands. Finally, Twitter marketers should adapt their tweeting strategies according to the media consumption preferences of different age groups of their target markets. This empirical research proves that content is king.

Keywords: tweeting, cultivation theory, consumer brand attitude, purchase intentions, word-of-mouth

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Authors: Katarina Rogulj, Ivana Racetin, Jelena Kilic

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In this study, the fuzzy logic approach (FLA) was developed for construction project management (CPM) under uncertainty and duality. The focus was on decision making in selecting the type of the glass facade for a residential-commercial building in the main design. The adoption of fuzzy sets was capable of reflecting construction managers’ reliability level over subjective judgments, and thus the robustness of the system can be achieved. An α-cuts method was utilized for discretizing the fuzzy sets in FLA. This method can communicate all uncertain information in the optimization process, taking into account the values of this information. Furthermore, FLA provides in-depth analyses of diverse policy scenarios that are related to various levels of economic aspects when it comes to the construction projects' valid decision making. The developed approach is applied to CPM to demonstrate its applicability. Analyzing the materials of glass facades, variants were defined. The development of the FLA for the CPM included relevant construction projec'ts stakeholders that were involved in the criteria definition to evaluate each variant. Using fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory Method (DEMATEL) comparison of the glass facade was conducted. This way, a rank, according to the priorities for inclusion into the main design, of variants is obtained. The concept was tested on a residential-commercial building in the city of Rijeka, Croatia. The newly developed methodology was then compared with the existing one. The aim of the research was to define an approach that will improve current judgments and decisions when it comes to the material selection of buildings facade as one of the most important architectural and engineering tasks in the main design. The advantage of the new methodology compared to the old one is that it includes the subjective side of the managers’ decisions, as an inevitable factor in each decision making. The proposed approach can help construction projects managers to identify the desired type of glass facade according to their preference and practical conditions, as well as facilitate in-depth analyses of tradeoffs between economic efficiency and architectural design.

Keywords: construction projects management, DEMATEL, fuzzy logic approach, glass façade selection

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Authors: Manish Jain, Dinesh Gopalani

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Growing dependency of mankind on software technology increases the need for thorough testing of the software applications and automated testing techniques that support testing activities. We have outlined our testing strategy for performing various types of automated testing of Java applications using AspectJ which has become the de-facto standard for Aspect Oriented Programming (AOP). Likewise JUnit, a unit testing framework is the most popular Java testing tool. In this paper, we have evaluated our proposed AOP approach for automated testing and JUnit on various parameters. First we have provided the similarity between the two approaches and then we have done a detailed comparison of the two testing techniques on factors like lines of testing code, learning curve, testing of private members etc. We established that our AOP testing approach using AspectJ has got several advantages and is thus particularly more effective than JUnit.

Keywords: aspect oriented programming, AspectJ, aspects, JU-nit, software testing

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Authors: Jaehyung Jung, Kiman Kim, Heesang Eum

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Solar cell is one of the main technologies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG). Thereby, accurate estimation of greenhouse gas reduction by solar cell technology is crucial to consider strategic applications of the solar cell. The bottom-up approach using operating data such as operation time and efficiency is one of the methodologies to improve the accuracy of the estimation. In this study, alternative GHG reductions from solar cell technology were estimated by a bottom-up approach to indirect emission source (scope 2) in Korea, 2015. In addition, the scenario-based analysis was conducted to assess the effect of technological change with respect to efficiency improvement and rate of operation. In order to estimate GHG reductions from solar cell activities in operating condition levels, methodologies were derived from 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories and guidelines for local government greenhouse inventories published in Korea, 2016. Indirect emission factors for electricity were obtained from Korea Power Exchange (KPX) in 2011. As a result, the annual alternative GHG reductions were estimated as 21,504 tonCO2eq, and the annual average value was 1,536 tonCO2eq per each solar cell technology. Those results of estimation showed to be 91% levels versus design of capacity. Estimation of individual greenhouse gases (GHGs) showed that the largest gas was carbon dioxide (CO2), of which up to 99% of the total individual greenhouse gases. The annual average GHG reductions from solar cell per year and unit installed capacity (MW) were estimated as 556 tonCO2eq/yr•MW. Scenario analysis of efficiency improvement by 5%, 10%, 15% increased as much as approximately 30, 61, 91%, respectively, and rate of operation as 100% increased 4% of the annual GHG reductions.

Keywords: bottom-up approach, greenhouse gas (GHG), reduction, scenario, solar cell

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Authors: Kritika Bansal, Akwinder Kaur, Shruti Gujral

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In this paper, the approach of denoising is solved by using a new hybrid technique which associates the different denoising methods. Wavelet thresholding and anisotropic diffusion filter are the two different filters in our hybrid techniques. The Wavelet thresholding removes the noise by removing the high frequency components with lesser edge preservation, whereas an anisotropic diffusion filters is based on partial differential equation, (PDE) to remove the speckle noise. This PDE approach is used to preserve the edges and provides better smoothing. So our new method proposes a combination of these two filtering methods which performs better results in terms of peak signal to noise ratio (PSNR), coefficient of correlation (COC) and equivalent no of looks (ENL).

Keywords: denoising, anisotropic diffusion filter, multiplicative noise, speckle, wavelets

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Authors: Zhichao Jiao, Craig Farnham, Jihui Yuan, Kazuo Emura

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It is common to use the outdoor design weather data to select the air-conditioning capacity in the building design stage. The outdoor design weather data are usually comprised of multiple meteorological elements for a 24-hour period separately, but the dependency between the elements is not well considered, which may cause an overestimation of selecting air-conditioning capacity. Considering the dependency between the air temperature and global solar radiation, we used the copula approach to model the joint distributions of those two weather elements and suggest a new method of selecting more credible outdoor design conditions based on the specific simultaneous occurrence probability of air temperature and global solar radiation. In this paper, the 10-year period hourly weather data from 2001 to 2010 in Osaka, Japan, was used to analyze the dependency structure and joint distribution, the result shows that the Joe-Frank copula fit for almost all hourly data. According to calculating the simultaneous occurrence probability and the common exceeding probability of air temperature and global solar radiation, the results have shown that the maximum difference in design air temperature and global solar radiation of the day is about 2 degrees Celsius and 30W/m2, respectively.

Keywords: energy conservation, design weather database, HVAC, copula approach

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Authors: Ding He, Ping Hu

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This article presents a “networking approach” as an alternative to the “layering model” in the issue of the historic urban landscape [HUL], based on research conducted in the historic city of Jingdezhen, the center of the porcelain industry in China. This study points out that the existing HUL concept, which can be traced back to the fundamental conceptual divisions set forth by western science, tends to analyze the various elements of urban heritage (composed of hybrid natural-cultural elements) by layers and ignore the nuanced connections and interweaving structure of various elements. Instead, the networking analysis approach can respond to the challenges of complex heritage networks and to the difficulties that are often faced when modern schemes of looking and thinking of landscape in the Eurocentric heritage model encounters local knowledge of Chinese settlement. The fieldwork in this paper examines the local language regarding place names and everyday uses of urban spaces, thereby highlighting heritage systems grounded in local life and indigenous knowledge. In the context of Chinese “Fengshui”, this paper demonstrates the local knowledge of nature and local intelligence of settlement location and design. This paper suggests that industrial elements (kilns, molding rooms, piers, etc.) and spiritual elements (temples for ceramic saints or water gods) are located in their intimate natural networks. Furthermore, the functional, spiritual, and natural elements are perceived as a whole and evolve as an interactive system. This paper proposes a local and cognitive approach in heritage, which was initially developed in European Landscape Convention and historic landscape characterization projects, and yet seeks a more tentative and nuanced model based on urban ethnography in a Chinese city.

Keywords: Chinese city, historic urban landscape, heritage conservation, network

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Authors: A. J. Regan, F. J. Lidgey, M. Betteridge, P. Georgiou, C. Toumazou, K. Hayatleh, J. R. Dibble

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Our goal is development of an algorithm capable of predicting the directional trend of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500). Extensive research has been published attempting to predict different financial markets using historical data testing on an in-sample and trend basis, with many authors employing excessively complex mathematical techniques. In reviewing and evaluating these in-sample methodologies, it became evident that this approach was unable to achieve sufficiently reliable prediction performance for commercial exploitation. For these reasons, we moved to an out-of-sample strategy based on linear regression analysis of an extensive set of financial data correlated with historical closing prices of the S&P 500. We are pleased to report a directional trend accuracy of greater than 55% for tomorrow (t+1) in predicting the S&P 500.

Keywords: financial algorithm, GPU, S&P 500, stock market prediction

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Authors: Linda Boussaid, Farid Brahim Belaribi

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The physico-chemical properties of liquid materials in the industrial field, in general, and in that of the chemical industries, in particular, constitutes a prerequisite for the design of equipment, for the resolution of specific problems (related to the techniques of purification and separation, at risk in the transport of certain materials, etc.) and, therefore, at the production stage. Chloroalkanes, ethers constitute three chemical families having an industrial, theoretical and environmental interest. For example, these compounds are used in various applications in the chemical and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, they contribute to the particular thermodynamic behavior (deviation from ideality, association, etc.) of certain mixtures which constitute a severe test for predictive theoretical models. Finally, due to the degradation of the environment in the world, a renewed interest is observed for ethers, because some of their physicochemical properties could contribute to lower pollution (ethers would be used as additives in aqueous fuels.). This work is a thermodynamic, experimental and theoretical study of the volumetric properties of liquid binary systems formed from compounds belonging to the chemical families of chloroalkanes, ethers, having an industrial, theoretical and environmental interest. Experimental determination of the densities and excess volumes of the systems studied, at different temperatures in the interval [278.15-333.15] K and at atmospheric pressure, using an AntonPaar vibrating tube densitometer of the DMA5000 type. This contribution of experimental data, on the volumetric properties of the binary liquid mixtures of 1,2-dichloroethane with an ether, supplemented by an application of the theoretical model of Prigogine-Flory-Patterson PFP, will probably contribute to the enrichment of the thermodynamic database and the further development of the theory of Flory in its Prigogine-Flory-Patterson (PFP) version, for a better understanding of the thermodynamic behavior of these liquid binary mixtures

Keywords: prigogine-flory-patterson (pfp), propriétés volumétrique , volume d’excés, ethers

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

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Authors: Syed Toqueer, Omer Younus

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Terrorism, today, has emerged as a global menace with Pakistan being the most adversely affected state. Therefore, the motive behind this study is to empirically establish the linkage of terrorism with socio-economic (uneven income distribution, poverty and unemployment) and political nexuses so that a policy recommendation can be put forth to better approach this issue in Pakistan. For this purpose, the study employs two competing models, namely, the distributed lag model and OLS, so that findings of the model may be consolidated comprehensively, over the reference period of 1984-2012. The findings of both models are indicative of the fact that uneven income distribution of Pakistan is rather a contributing factor towards terrorism when measured through GDP per capita. This supports the hypothesis that immiserizing modernization theory is applicable for the state of Pakistan where the underprivileged are marginalized. Results also suggest that other socio-economic variables (poverty, unemployment and consumer confidence) can condense the brutality of terrorism once these conditions are catered to and improved. The rational of opportunity cost is at the base of this argument. Poor conditions of employment and poverty reduces the opportunity cost for individuals to be recruited by terrorist organizations as economic returns are considerably low and thus increasing the supply of volunteers and subsequently increasing the intensity of terrorism. The argument of political freedom as a means of lowering terrorism stands true. The more the people are politically repressed the more alternative and illegal means they will find to make their voice heard. Also, the argument that politically transitioning economy faces more terrorism is found applicable for Pakistan. Finally, the study contributes to an ongoing debate on which of the two set of factors are more significant with relation to terrorism by suggesting that socio-economic factors are found to be the primary causes of terrorism for Pakistan.

Keywords: terrorism, socioeconomic conditions, political freedom, distributed lag model, ordinary least square

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Authors: Tagreed Alzahrani

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The syntax of quantifiers has received much attention by linguists, philosophers and logicians within different frameworks and in various languages. However, the syntax of Arabic quantifiers has received limited attention in the literature, especially in relation to floating quantifiers. There have been a few discussions of floating quantifiers in Modern Standard Arabic (henceforth, MSA), although the analysis and the properties of their counterparts in other Saudi dialects are rare. Therefore, the aim of the paper is to provide a clear description of floating quantifiers (FQs) in Hijazi dialect (henceforth, HA) by utilising the following approaches: the adverbial approach, and the derivational (stranding) analysis. For a long time, Linguists have tried to explain the floating quantifiers’ phenomenon, as exemplified in the following sentences: 1. All the friends have watched the movie. 2. The friends have all watched the movie. The adverbial approach assumes that the floating quantifier is a type of adverb, because it occupies the adverbial position next to the verb. Thus, the subject in the first example is all the friends and the subject in the second example is the friends with all becoming an adverb, as it is located in an adverbial position. However, in stranding analysis, it is argued that the floating quantifier becomes stranded when its complement has moved to a higher position in the sentence [SPEC, TP]. Therefore, both sentences have the same subject all the friends, although in second example the friends has moved to a higher position and has stranded the quantifier all. The paper will investigate the floating quantifiers in HA using both approaches. The analysis will show that neither view is entirely successful in providing a unified account for FQs in HA.

Keywords: floating quantifier, adverbial analysis, stranding approach, universal quantifier

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Authors: sulmaz Mozaffari

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Nostalgia is one of the hot-debated issues in critical psychology which has been translated as the yearning or gloom in Persian. It is defined as the regret of the sweet past and the contrast of the present with the past. The feeling of alienation and being remote from the home, remembering death, the regret of childhood and youth, separation of the beloved, remembering the glorious era of history, desire for the ancient times, and the hope for Utopia are considered as its components. Nazik Al-Malaika, a contemporary poet of Arabic literature, has depicted some shapes and dimensions of sympathy, regret and anguish in her poems. Utilizing a nostalgic approach to the past, this paper has reflected upon love, memories of childhood and youth and hope for Utopia "and also aimed at explaining each one's manifestations through a comparative perspective.

Keywords: Nazik al-malaika, poem, nostalgia, personal memory, collective memory

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Authors: Jean Pierre Ribeiro Daquila

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This paper aims to analyze the use of the Theory of Multiple Intelligences as a tool to facilitate students’ learning. This theory, proposed by the American psychologist and educator Howard Gardner, was first established in 1983 and advocates that human beings possess eight intelligence and not only one, as defended by psychologists prior to his theory. These intelligence are bodily-kinesthetic intelligence, musical, linguistic, logical-mathematical, spatial, interpersonal, intrapersonal, and naturalist. This paper will focus on bodily-kinesthetic intelligence. Spatial and bodily-kinesthetic intelligences are sensed by athletes, dancers, and others who use their bodies in ways that exceed normal abilities. These are intelligences that are closely related. A quarterback or a ballet dancer needs to have both an awareness of body motions and abilities as well as a sense of the space involved in the action. Nevertheless, there are many reasons which make classical ballet dance more integrated with other intelligences. Ballet dancers make it look effortless as they move across the stage, from the lifts to the toe points; therefore, there is acting both in the performance of the repertoire and in hiding the pain or physical stress. The ballet dancer has to have great mathematical intelligence to perform a fast allegro; for instance, each movement has to be executed in a specific millisecond. Flamenco dancers need to rely as well on their mathematic abilities, as the footwork requires the ability to make half, two, three, four or even six movements in just one beat. However, the precision of the arm movements is freer than in ballet dance; for this reason, ballet dancers need to be more holistically aware of their movements; therefore, our experiment will test whether this greater attention required by ballet dancers makes them acquire better results in the training sessions when compared to flamenco dancers. An experiment will be carried out in this study by training ballet dancers through dance (four years of experience dancing minimum – experimental group 1); a group of flamenco dancers (four years of experience dancing minimum – experimental group 2). Both experimental groups will be trained in two different domains – phonetics and chemistry – to examine whether there is a significant improvement in these areas compared to the control group (a group of regular students who will receive the same training through a traditional method). However, this paper will focus on phonetic training. Experimental group 1 will be trained with the aid of classical music plus bodily work. Experimental group 2 will be trained with flamenco rhythm and kinesthetic work. We would like to highlight that this study takes dance as an example of a possible area of strength; nonetheless, other types of arts can and should be used to support students, such as drama, creative writing, music and others. The main aim of this work is to suggest that other intelligences, in the case of this study, bodily-kinesthetic, can be used to help improve pronunciation.

Keywords: multiple intelligences, pronunciation, effective pronunciation trainings, short drills, musical intelligence, bodily-kinesthetic intelligence

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Authors: A. Maruf Aytekin

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We present our approach on using continuous delivery pattern for release management. One of the key practices of agile and lean teams is the continuous delivery of new features to stakeholders. The main benefits of this approach lie in the ability to release new applications rapidly which has real strategic impact on the competitive advantage of an organization. Organizations that successfully implement Continuous Delivery have the ability to evolve rapidly to support innovation, provide stable and reliable software in more efficient ways, decrease the amount of resources need for maintenance, and lower the software delivery time and costs. One of the objectives of this paper is to elaborate a case study where IT division of Central Securities Depository Institution (MKK) of Turkey apply Continuous Delivery pattern to improve release management process.

Keywords: automation, continuous delivery, deployment, release management

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Authors: Alexander Guzman Urbina, Atsushi Aoyama

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The sustainability of traditional technologies employed in energy and chemical infrastructure brings a big challenge for our society. Making decisions related with safety of industrial infrastructure, the values of accidental risk are becoming relevant points for discussion. However, the challenge is the reliability of the models employed to get the risk data. Such models usually involve large number of variables and with large amounts of uncertainty. The most efficient techniques to overcome those problems are built using Artificial Intelligence (AI), and more specifically using hybrid systems such as Neuro-Fuzzy algorithms. Therefore, this paper aims to introduce a hybrid algorithm for risk assessment trained using near-miss accident data. As mentioned above the sustainability of traditional technologies related with energy and chemical infrastructure constitutes one of the major challenges that today’s societies and firms are facing. Besides that, the adaptation of those technologies to the effects of the climate change in sensible environments represents a critical concern for safety and risk management. Regarding this issue argue that social consequences of catastrophic risks are increasing rapidly, due mainly to the concentration of people and energy infrastructure in hazard-prone areas, aggravated by the lack of knowledge about the risks. Additional to the social consequences described above, and considering the industrial sector as critical infrastructure due to its large impact to the economy in case of a failure the relevance of industrial safety has become a critical issue for the current society. Then, regarding the safety concern, pipeline operators and regulators have been performing risk assessments in attempts to evaluate accurately probabilities of failure of the infrastructure, and consequences associated with those failures. However, estimating accidental risks in critical infrastructure involves a substantial effort and costs due to number of variables involved, complexity and lack of information. Therefore, this paper aims to introduce a well trained algorithm for risk assessment using deep learning, which could be capable to deal efficiently with the complexity and uncertainty. The advantage point of the deep learning using near-miss accidents data is that it could be employed in risk assessment as an efficient engineering tool to treat the uncertainty of the risk values in complex environments. The basic idea of using a Near-Miss Deep Learning Approach for Neuro-Fuzzy Risk Assessment in Pipelines is focused in the objective of improve the validity of the risk values learning from near-miss accidents and imitating the human expertise scoring risks and setting tolerance levels. In summary, the method of Deep Learning for Neuro-Fuzzy Risk Assessment involves a regression analysis called group method of data handling (GMDH), which consists in the determination of the optimal configuration of the risk assessment model and its parameters employing polynomial theory.

Keywords: deep learning, risk assessment, neuro fuzzy, pipelines

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Authors: Styliani Soulioti, Helen Fiddler

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The aim of this study was to investigate the approaches used by physiotherapists in the education of patients with chronic low back pain (cLBP) and the rationale that underpins their choice of approach. Therapeutic patient education (TPE) is considered to be an important aspect of modern physiotherapy practice, as it helps patients achieve better self-management and a better understanding of their problem. Previous studies have explored this subject, but the reasoning behind the choices physiotherapists make as educators has not been widely explored, thus making it difficult to understand areas that could be addressed in order to improve the application of TPE.A qualitative study design, guided by a constructivist epistemology was used in this research project. Semi-structured interviews were used to collect data from 7 physiotherapists. Inductive coding and thematic analysis were used, which allowed key themes to emerge. Data analysis revealed two overarching themes: 1) patient-centred versus therapist-centred educational approaches, and 2) behaviourist versus constructivist educational approaches. Physiotherapists appear to use a patient-centred-approach when they explore patients’ beliefs about cLBP and treatment expectations. However, treatment planning and goal-setting were guided by a therapist-centred approach, as physiotherapists appear to take on the role of the instructor/expert, whereas patients were viewed as students. Using a constructivist approach, physiotherapists aimed to provide guidance to patients by combining their professional knowledge with the patients’ individual knowledge, to help the patient better understand their problem, reflect upon it and find a possible solution. However, educating patients about scientific facts concerning cLBP followed a behaviourist approach, as an instructor/student relationship was observed and the learning content was predetermined and transmitted in a one-way manner. The results of this study suggest that a lack of consistency appears to exist in the educational approaches used by physiotherapists. Although patient-centeredness and constructivism appear to be the aims set by physiotherapists in order to optimise the education they provide, a student-teacher relationship appears to dominate when it comes to goal-setting and delivering scientific information.

Keywords: chronic low back pain, educational approaches, health education, patient education

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Authors: Mohammad Mehdi Mazarei, Ali Asghar Behroozpoor

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In this paper, we define an optimization problem corresponding to smooth and nonsmooth functions which its optimal solution is the first derivative of these functions in a domain. For this purpose, a linear programming problem corresponding to optimization problem is obtained. The optimal solution of this linear programming problem is the approximate generalized first derivative. In fact, we approximate generalized first derivative of nonsmooth functions as tailor series. We show the efficiency of our approach by some smooth and nonsmooth functions in some examples.

Keywords: general derivative, linear programming, optimization problem, smooth and nonsmooth functions

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Authors: Kuladeep Kumar Sadevi

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The shift towards raising global urban population has intense implications on the sustainability of the urban livelihoods. Rapid urbanization has made governments, companies and civil societies recognize that they are barely equipped to deal with growing urban demands, especially water, waste and energy management. Effective management of land, water, energy and waste at a community level should be addressed well to attain greener cities. In pursuit of Green livelihoods; various norms, codes, and green rating programmes have been followed by stakeholders at various levels. While the sustainability is being adapted at smaller scale developments, greening the urban environment at community/city level is still finding its path to reality. This is due to lack of the sense of ownership in the citizens for their immediate neighborhoods and city as a whole. This phenomenon can be well connected to the theory of 'tragedy of commons' with respect to the community engagement to manage the common pool resources. The common pool resource management has been well addressed by Elinor Ostrom, who shared the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2009 for her lifetime of scholarly work investigating how communities succeed or fail at managing common pool (finite) resources. This paper examines the applicability of Elinor Ostrom's 8 Principles for Managing a Commons, to meet urban sustainability. The key objective of this paper is to come up with a model for effective urban common pool resource management, which ultimately leads to sustainability as a whole. The paper brings out a methodology to understand various parameters involved in urban sustainability, examine the synergies of all such parameters, and application of Ostrom’s principles to correlate these parameters in order to attain effective urban resource management.

Keywords: common pool resources, green cities, green communities, participatory management, sustainable development, urban resource management, urban sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 353