Search results for: three-dimensional geological modeling

Authors: Lu Zhao, Nadir Farhi, Zoi Christoforou, Nadia Haddadou

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The safety test of deploying intelligent connected vehicles (ICVs) on the road network is a critical challenge. Road traffic network simulation can be used to test the functionality of ICVs, which is not only time-saving and less energy-consuming but also can create scenarios with car collisions. However, the relationship between different human driver behaviors and the car-collision occurrences has been not understood clearly; meanwhile, the procedure of car-collisions generation in the traffic numerical simulators is not fully integrated. In this paper, we propose an approach to identify specific driver profiles from real driven data; then, we replicate them in numerical traffic simulations with the purpose of generating inter-vehicular collisions. We proposed three profiles: (i) 'aggressive': short time-headway, (ii) 'inattentive': long reaction time, and (iii) 'normal' with intermediate values of reaction time and time-headway. These three driver profiles are extracted from the NGSIM dataset and simulated using the intelligent driver model (IDM), with an extension of reaction time. At last, the generation of inter-vehicular collisions is performed by varying the percentages of different profiles.

Keywords: vehicular collisions, human driving behavior, traffic modeling, car-following models, microscopic traffic simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: Ranjit Kumar Sahu, Ramakar Jha

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Urban Water Management is the practice of managing freshwater, waste water, and storm water as components of a basin-wide management plan. It builds on existing water supply and sanitation considerations within an urban settlement by incorporating urban water management within the scope of the entire river basin. The pervasive problems generated by urban development have prompted, in the present work, to study the spatial extent of urbanization in Golden Triangle of Odisha connecting the cities Bhubaneswar (20.2700° N, 85.8400° E), Puri (19.8106° N, 85.8314° E) and Konark (19.9000° N, 86.1200° E)., and patterns of periodic changes in urban development (systematic/random) in order to develop future plans for (i) urbanization promotion areas, and (ii) urbanization control areas. Remote Sensing, using USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) Landsat8 maps, supervised classification of the Urban Sprawl has been done for during 1980 - 2014, specifically after 2000. This Work presents the following: (i) Time series analysis of Hydrological data (ground water and rainfall), (ii) Application of SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) and other soft computing techniques for Urban Water Management, and (iii) Uncertainty analysis of model parameters (Urban Sprawl and correlation analysis). The outcome of the study shows drastic growth results in urbanization and depletion of ground water levels in the area that has been discussed briefly. Other relative outcomes like declining trend of rainfall and rise of sand mining in local vicinity has been also discussed. Research on this kind of work will (i) improve water supply and consumption efficiency (ii) Upgrade drinking water quality and waste water treatment (iii) Increase economic efficiency of services to sustain operations and investments for water, waste water, and storm water management, and (iv) engage communities to reflect their needs and knowledge for water management.

Keywords: Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), uncertainty analysis, urban sprawl, land use change

Procedia PDF Downloads 425

Authors: Ebrahim Safarian, Kadir Bilen, Akif Ceviz

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The turbocharger and turbocharging have been the inherent component of diesel engines, so that critical parameters of such engines, as BSFC(Brake Specific Fuel Consumption) or thermal efficiency, fuel consumption, BMEP(Brake Mean Effective Pressure), the power density output and emission level have been improved extensively. In general, the turbocharger can be considered as the most complex component of diesel engines, because it has closely interrelated turbomachinery concepts of the turbines and the compressors to thermodynamic fundamentals of internal combustion engines and stress analysis of all components. In this paper, a waste gate for a conventional single stage radial turbine is investigated by consideration of turbochargers operation constrains and engine operation conditions, without any detail designs in the turbine and the compressor. Amount of opening waste gate which extended between the ranges of full opened and closed valve, is demonstrated by limiting compressor boost pressure ratio. Obtaining of an optimum point by regard above mentioned items is surveyed by three linked meanline modeling programs together which consist of Turbomatch®, Compal®, Rital®madules in concepts NREC® respectively.

Keywords: turbocharger, wastegate, diesel engine, concept NREC programs

Procedia PDF Downloads 243

Authors: Aude Pérard Lecomte, Georges Fokoua, Amine Mehel, Anne Tanière

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Air quality in urban areas is deteriorated by pollution, mainly due to the constant increase of the traffic of different types of ground vehicles. In particular, particulate matter pollution with important concentrations in urban areas can cause serious health issues. Characterizing and understanding particle dynamics is therefore essential to establish recommendations to improve air quality in urban areas. To analyze the effects of turbulence on particulate pollutants dispersion, the first step is to focus on the single-phase flow structure and turbulence characteristics in the wake of a heavy truck model. To achieve this, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations were conducted with the aim of modeling the wake airflow of a full- and reduced-scale heavy truck. The Reynolds Average Navier-Stokes (RANS) approach with the Reynolds Stress Model (RSM)as the turbulence model closure was used. The simulations highlight the apparition of a large vortex coming from the under trailer. This vortex belongs to the recirculation region, located in the near-wake of the heavy truck. These vortical structures are expected to have a strong influence on particle dynamics that are emitted by the truck.

Keywords: CDF, heavy truck, recirculation region, reduced scale

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Authors: Robert Jacobsen

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Flood inundation maps (FIMs) are an essential tool in communicating flood threat scenarios to the public as well as in floodplain governance. With an increasing demand for online raster FIMs, the FIM State-of-the-Practice (SOP) is rapidly advancing to meet the dual requirements for high-resolution and high-accuracy—or High-Definition. Importantly, today’s technology also enables the resolution of problems of local—neighborhood-scale—bias errors that often occur in FIMs, even with the use of SOP two-dimensional flood modeling. To facilitate the development of HD-FIMs, a new GIS method--Raster Adjustment with Scenario Profiles, RASPTM—is described for adjusting kernel raster FIMs to match refined scenario profiles. With RASPTM, flood professionals can prepare HD-FIMs for a wide range of scenarios with available kernel rasters, including kernel rasters prepared from vector FIMs. The paper provides detailed procedures for RASPTM, along with an example of applying RASPTM to prepare an HD-FIM for the August 2016 Flood in Louisiana using both an SOP kernel raster and a kernel raster derived from an older vector-based flood insurance rate map. The accuracy of the HD-FIMs achieved with the application of RASPTM to the two kernel rasters is evaluated.

Keywords: hydrology, mapping, high-definition, inundation

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Authors: Waldir Roque, Gustavo Oliveira, Moises Santos, Tatiana Simoes

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Increasing the oil recovery factor of an oil reservoir has been a concern of the oil industry. Usually, the production placement zones are defined after some analysis of geological and petrophysical parameters, being the rock porosity, permeability and oil saturation of fundamental importance. In this context, the determination of hydraulic flow units (HFUs) renders an important step in the process of reservoir characterization since it may provide specific regions in the reservoir with similar petrophysical and fluid flow properties and, in particular, techniques supporting the placement of production zones that favour the tracing of directional wells. A HFU is defined as a representative volume of a total reservoir rock in which petrophysical and fluid flow properties are internally consistent and predictably distinct of other reservoir rocks. Technically, a HFU is characterized as a rock region that exhibit flow zone indicator (FZI) points lying on a straight line of the unit slope. The goal of this paper is to provide a trustful indication for oil production placement zones for the best-fit HFUs. The FZI cloud of points can be obtained from the reservoir quality index (RQI), a function of effective porosity and permeability. Considering log and core data the HFUs are identified and using the discrete rock type (DRT) classification, a set of connected cell clusters can be found and by means a graph centrality metric, the maximum closeness (MaxC) cell is obtained for each cluster. Considering the MaxC cells as production zones, an extensive analysis, based on several oil recovery factor and oil cumulative production simulations were done for the SPE Model 2 and the UNISIM-I-D synthetic fields, where the later was build up from public data available from the actual Namorado Field, Campos Basin, in Brazil. The results have shown that the MaxC is actually technically feasible and very reliable as high performance production placement zones.

Keywords: hydraulic flow unit, maximum closeness centrality, oil production simulation, production placement zone

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Authors: L. Nahimana

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The eastern edge of the East African Rift in Burundi shows many mass movement phenomena corresponding to landslides, mudflow, debris flow, spectacular erosion (mega-gully), flash floods and alluvial deposits. These phenomena usually occur during the rainy season. Their extent and consecutive damages vary widely. To manage these phenomena, it is necessary to adopt a methodological approach of their mapping with a structured database. The elements for this database are: three-dimensional extent of the phenomenon, natural causes and conditions (geological lithology, slope, weathering depth and products, rainfall patterns, natural environment) and the anthropogenic factors corresponding to the various human activities. The extent of the area provides information about the possibilities and opportunities for mitigation technique. The lithological nature allows understanding the influence of the nature of the rock and its structure on the intensity of the weathering of rocks, as well as the geotechnical properties of the weathering products. The slope influences the land stability. The intensity of annual, monthly and daily rainfall helps to understand the conditions of water saturation of the terrains. Certain natural circumstances such as the presence of streams and rivers promote foot slope erosion and thus the occurrence and activity of mass movements. The construction of some infrastructures such as new roads and agglomerations deeply modify the flow of surface and underground water followed by mass movements. Using geospatial data selected on the East African Rift in Burundi, it is presented case of mass movements illustrating the nature, importance, various factors and the extent of the damages. An analysis of these elements for each hazard can guide the options for mitigation of the phenomenon and its consequences.

Keywords: mass movement, landslide, mudflow, debris flow, spectacular erosion, mega-gully, flash flood, alluvial deposit, East African rift, Burundi

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Authors: Libo Jiang, Huan Li, Rongling Wu

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Ordinary differentiation equations (ODE) have proven to be powerful for reconstructing precise and informative gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from dynamic gene expression data. However, joint modeling and analysis of all genes, essential for the systematical characterization of genetic interactions, are challenging due to high dimensionality and a complex pattern of genetic regulation including activation, repression, and antitermination. Here, we address these challenges by unifying variable selection and game theory through ODE. Each gene within a GRN is co-expressed with its partner genes in a way like a game of multiple players, each of which tends to choose an optimal strategy to maximize its “fitness” across the whole network. Based on this unifying theory, we designed and conducted a real experiment to infer salt tolerance-related GRNs for Euphrates poplar, a hero tree that can grow in the saline desert. The pattern and magnitude of interactions between several hub genes within these GRNs were found to determine the capacity of Euphrates poplar to resist to saline stress.

Keywords: gene regulatory network, ordinary differential equation, game theory, LASSO, saline resistance

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Authors: Rakesh Namdeti

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Toxic dyes found in industrial effluent must be treated before being disposed of due to their harmful impact on human health and aquatic life. Thus, Musa acuminata (Banana Leaves) was employed in the role of a biosorbent in this work to get rid of methylene blue derived from a synthetic solution. The effects of five process parameters, such as temperature, pH, biosorbent dosage, and initial methylene blue concentration, using a central composite design (CCD), and the percentage of dye clearance were investigated. The response was modelled using a quadratic model based on the CCD. The analysis of variance revealed the most influential element on experimental design response (ANOVA). The temperature of 44.30C, pH of 7.1, biosorbent dose of 0.3 g, starting methylene blue concentration of 48.4 mg/L, and 84.26 percent dye removal were the best conditions for Musa acuminata (Banana leave powder). At these ideal conditions, the experimental percentage of biosorption was 76.93. The link between the estimated results of the developed ANN model and the experimental results defined the success of ANN modeling. As a result, the study's experimental results were found to be quite close to the model's predicted outcomes.

Keywords: Musa acuminata, central composite design, methylene blue, artificial neural network

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Authors: Padmini Raman

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The architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) industry is facing enormous technological and institutional changes and challenges including the information technology and appropriate application of sustainable practices. The engineer and architect must be able to handle with a rapid pace of technological change. BIM is a unique process of producing and managing a building by exploring a digital module before the actual project is constructed and later during its construction, facility operation and maintenance. BIM has been Adopted by construction contractors and architects in the western country mostly in US and UK to improve the planning and management of construction projects. In India, BIM is a basic stage of adoption only, several issues about data acquisition and management comes during the design formation and planning of a construction project due to the complexity, ambiguity, and fragmented nature of the Indian construction industry. This paper tells about the view a strategy for India’s AEC firms to successfully implement BIM in their current working processes. By surveying and collecting data about problems faced by these architectural firms, it will be analysed how to avoid those situations from rising and, thus, introducing BIM Capabilities in such firms in the most effective way. while this application is widely accepted throughout the industry in many countries for managing project information for cost control and facilities management.

Keywords: AEC industry, building information module, Indian industry, new technology, BIM implementation in India

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Authors: Mustafa Gok, Sair Kahraman, Mustafa Fener

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In rock engineering applications, determining uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), Brazilian tensile strength (BTS), and basic index properties such as density, porosity, and water absorption is crucial for the design of both underground and surface structures. However, obtaining reliable samples for direct testing, especially from rocks that weather quickly and have low strength, is often challenging. In such cases, indirect methods provide a practical alternative to estimate the physical and mechanical properties of these rocks. In this study, tuff samples collected from the Cappadocia region (Nevşehir) in Turkey were subjected to indirect testing methods. Over 100 tests were conducted, using needle penetrometer index (NPI), point load strength index (PLI), and disc shear index (BPI) to estimate the uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), Brazilian tensile strength (BTS), density, and water absorption index of the tuffs. The relationships between the results of these indirect tests and the target physical properties were evaluated using simple and multiple regression analyses. The findings of this research reveal strong correlations between the indirect methods and the mechanical properties of the tuffs. Both uniaxial compressive strength and Brazilian tensile strength could be accurately predicted using NPI, PLI, and BPI values. The regression models developed in this study allow for rapid, cost-effective assessments of tuff strength in cases where direct testing is impractical. These results are particularly valuable for geological engineering applications, where time and resource constraints exist. This study highlights the significance of using indirect methods as reliable predictors of the mechanical behavior of weak rocks like tuffs. Further research is recommended to explore the application of these methods to other rock types with similar characteristics. Further research is required to compare the results with those of established direct test methods.

Keywords: brazilian tensile strength, disc shear strength, indirect methods, tuffs, uniaxial compressive strength

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Authors: Muhammad Noor Ul Ane, Dong-Soon Kim, Myron P. Zalucki

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Models can be useful to help understand population dynamics of insects under diverse environmental conditions and in developing strategies to manage pest species better. Adult longevity and fecundity of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) were evaluated against a wide range of constant temperatures (15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 37.5ᵒC). The modified Sharpe and DeMichele model described adult aging rate and was used to estimate adult physiological age. Maximum fecundity of H. armigera was 973 egg/female at 25ᵒC decreasing to 72 eggs/female at 37.5ᵒC. The relationship between adult fecundity and temperature was well described by an extreme value function. Age-specific cumulative oviposition rate and age-specific survival rate were well described by a two-parameter Weibull function and sigmoid function, respectively. An oviposition model was developed using three temperature-dependent components: total fecundity, age-specific oviposition rate, and age-specific survival rate. The oviposition model was validated against independent field data and described the field occurrence pattern of egg population of H. armigera very well. Our model should be a useful component for population modeling of H. armigera and can be independently used for the timing of sprays in management programs of this key pest species.

Keywords: cotton bollworm, life table, temperature-dependent adult development, temperature-dependent fecundity

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Ejoke U. P., Smitha Dev., Madwuke Ann, DuPlessis E. D.

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The study examines the relationship between psychological capital (PsyCap) and social well-being among international faculty members in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The UAE has become a significant destination for global academic talent, yet challenges related to social integration, acceptance, and overall well-being persist among its international faculty. The study focuses on the predictive role of PsyCap, encompassing hope, efficacy, resilience, and optimism, in determining various dimensions of social well-being, including social integration, acceptance, contribution, actualization, and coherence. Additionally, the research investigates the potential moderating or mediating effects of institutional support and Faculty Job-Status position on the relationship between PsyCap and social well-being. Through structural equation modeling, we found that institutional support mediated the positive relationship between PsyCap and SWB and the permanent Faculty job-status position type strengthens the relationship between PsyCap and SWB. Our findings uncover the pathways through which PsyCap influences the social well-being outcomes of international faculty in the UAE. The findings will contribute to the development of tailored interventions and support systems aimed at enhancing the integration experiences and overall well-being of international faculty within the UAE academic community. Thus, fostering a more inclusive and thriving academic environment in the UAE.

Keywords: faculty job-status, institutional-faculty, psychological capital, social well-being, UAE

Procedia PDF Downloads 53

Authors: Hamidoddin Yousife

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Drilling optimization requires a prediction of drilling rate of penetration (ROP) since it provides a significant reduction in drilling costs. There are several factors that can have an impact on the ROP, both controllable and uncontrollable. Numerous drilling penetration rate models have been considered based on drilling parameters. This papers considered the effect of proper drilling parameter selection such as bit, Mud Type, applied weight on bit (WOB), Revolution per minutes (RPM), and flow rate on drilling optimization and drilling cost reduction. A predicted analysis is used in real-time drilling performance to determine the optimal drilling operation. As a result of these modeling studies, the real data collected from three directional wells at Azadegan oil fields, Iran, was verified and adjusted to determine the drillability of a specific formation. Simulation results and actual drilling results show significant improvements in inaccuracy. Once simulations had been validated, optimum drilling parameters and equipment specifications were determined by varying weight on bit (WOB), rotary speed (RPM), hydraulics (hydraulic pressure), and bit specification for each well until the highest drilling rate was achieved. To evaluate the potential operational and economic benefits of optimizing results, a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the data was performed.

Keywords: drlling, cost, optimization, parameters

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Authors: Toufik Bensana, Slimane Mekhilef, Kamel Tadjine

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The use of vibration analysis has been established as the most common and reliable method of analysis in the field of condition monitoring and diagnostics of rotating machinery. Rolling bearings cover a broad range of rotary machines and plays a crucial role in the modern manufacturing industry. Unfortunately, the vibration signals collected from a faulty bearing are generally non-stationary, nonlinear and with strong noise interference, so it is essential to obtain the fault features correctly. In this paper, a novel numerical analysis method based on local mean decomposition (LMD) is proposed. LMD decompose the signal into a series of product functions (PFs), each of which is the product of an envelope signal and a purely frequency modulated FM signal. The envelope of a PF is the instantaneous amplitude (IA) and the derivative of the unwrapped phase of a purely flat frequency demodulated (FM) signal is the IF. After that, the fault characteristic frequency of the roller bearing can be extracted by performing spectrum analysis to the instantaneous amplitude of PF component containing dominant fault information. the results show the effectiveness of the proposed technique in fault detection and diagnosis of rolling element bearing.

Keywords: fault diagnosis, local mean decomposition, rolling element bearing, vibration analysis

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Authors: Paola Pannuzzo, Tak-Ming Chan

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In seismic applications, hollow steel sections show, beyond undeniable esthetical appeal, promising structural advantages since, unlike open section counterparts, they are not susceptible to weak-axis and lateral-torsional buckling. In particular, hot-finished hollow steel sections have homogeneous material properties and favorable ductility but have been underutilized for cyclic bending. The main reason is that the parameters affecting their hysteretic behaviors are not yet well understood and, consequently, are not well exploited in existing codes of practice. Therefore, experimental investigations have been conducted on a wide range of hot-finished rectangular hollow section beams with the aim to providing basic knowledge for evaluating their seismic performance. The section geometry (width-to-thickness and depth-to-thickness ratios) and the type of loading (monotonic and cyclic) have been chosen as the key parameters to investigate the cyclic effect on the rotational capacity and to highlight the differences between monotonic and cyclic load conditions. The test results provide information on the parameters that affect the cyclic performance of hot-finished hollow steel beams and can be used to assess the design provisions stipulated in the current seismic codes of practice.

Keywords: bending, cyclic test, finite element modeling, hollow sections, hot-finished sections

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: Ravinder Singh, C Rajesh, Saroj Badhan, Shailendra Mishra, Ranjit Singh Kataria

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Heat shock protein 60 and 70 are crucial chaperones that guide appropriate folding of denatured proteins under heat stress conditions. HSP60 and HSP70 provide assistance in correct folding of a multitude of denatured proteins. The heat shock factors are the family of some transcription factors which controls the regulation of gene expression of proteins involved in folding of damaged or improper folded proteins during stress conditions. Under normal condition heat shock proteins bind with HSF-1 and act as its repressor as well as aids in maintaining the HSF-1’s nonactive and monomeric confirmation. The experimental protein structure for all these proteins in Bubalus bubalis is not known till date. Therefore computational approach was explored to identify three-dimensional structure analysis of all these proteins. In this study, an extensive in silico analysis has been performed including sequence comparison among species to comparative modeling of Bubalus bubalis HSP60, HSP70 and HSF-1 protein. The stereochemical properties of proteins were assessed by utilizing several scrutiny bioinformatics tools to ensure model accuracy. Further docking approach was used to study interactions between Heat shock proteins and HSF-1.

Keywords: Bubalus bubalis, comparative modelling, docking, heat shock protein

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Authors: M. S. Mousavi-Daramoroudi, H. Yousefnia, S. Zolghadri, F. Abbasi-Davani

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Dosimetry is an indispensable and precious factor in patient treatment planning; to minimize the absorbed dose in vital tissues. In this study, In accordance with the proper characteristics of DOTATOC and ¹⁷⁷Lu, after preparing ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC at the optimal conditions for the first time in Iran, radionuclidic and radiochemical purity of the solution was investigated using an HPGe spectrometer and ITLC method, respectively. The biodistribution of the compound was assayed for treatment of adenocarcinoma breast cancer in bearing BALB/c mice. The results have demonstrated that ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC is a profitable selection for therapy of the tumors. Because of the vital role of internal dosimetry before and during therapy, the effort to improve the accuracy and rapidity of dosimetric calculations is necessary. For this reason, a new method was accomplished to calculate the absorbed dose through mixing between compartmental model, animal dosimetry and extrapolated data from animal to human and using MIRD method. Despite utilization of compartmental model based on the experimental data, it seems this approach may increase the accuracy of dosimetric data, confidently.

Keywords: ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC, biodistribution modeling, compartmental model, internal dosimetry

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Authors: Agus Masrukhin

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This research aims to find and analyze the model of character building in the Police Headquarters in Bali with a case study of Muslim members in improving the quality of the morality of its members. The formation of patterns of thinking, behavior, mentality, and police officers noble character, later can be used as a solution to reduce the hedonistic nature of the challenges in the era of globalization. The benefit of this study is expected to be a positive recommendation to find a constructive character building models of police officers in the Republic of Indonesia, especially Bali Police. For the long term, the discovery of the character building models can be developed for the entire police force in Indonesia. The type of research that would apply in this study researchers mix the qualitative research methods based on the narrative between the subject and the concrete experience of field research and quantitative research methods with 92 respondents from the police regional police Bali. This research used a descriptive analysis and SWOT analysis then it is presented in the FGD (focus group discussion). The results of this research indicate that the variable modeling the leadership of the police and variable police offices culture have significant influence on the implementation of spiritual development.

Keywords: positive constructive, hedonistic, character models, morality

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Authors: V. B. Bastos, M. P. Lima, P. R. G. Kurka

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This paper applies to the creation of virtual 3D environments for the study and development of mobile robot image based navigation algorithms and techniques, which need to operate robustly and efficiently. The test of these algorithms can be performed in a physical way, from conducting experiments on a prototype, or by numerical simulations. Current simulation platforms for robotic applications do not have flexible and updated models for image rendering, being unable to reproduce complex light effects and materials. Thus, it is necessary to create a test platform that integrates sophisticated simulated applications of real environments for navigation, with data and image processing. This work proposes the development of a high-level platform for building 3D model’s environments and the test of image-based navigation algorithms for mobile robots. Techniques were used for applying texture and lighting effects in order to accurately represent the generation of rendered images regarding the real world version. The application will integrate image processing scripts, trajectory control, dynamic modeling and simulation techniques for physics representation and picture rendering with the open source 3D creation suite - Blender.

Keywords: simulation, visual navigation, mobile robot, data visualization

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Authors: G. Vishnu, T. V. Bharat

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Rainfall plays a major role in the stability of natural slopes in tropical and subtropical regions. These slopes usually have high slope angles and are stable during the dry season. The critical rainfall intensity that might trigger a landslide may not be the highest rainfall. In addition to geological discontinuities and anthropogenic factors, water content, suction, and hydraulic conductivity also play a role. A thorough geotechnical investigation with the principles of unsaturated soil mechanics is required to predict the failures in these cases. The study discusses three landslide events that had occurred in residual hills of Guwahati, India. Rainfall data analysis, history image analysis, land use, and slope maps of the region were analyzed and discussed. The landslide occurred on June (24, 26, and 28) 2020, on the respective sites, but the highest rainfall was on June (6 and 17) 2020. The factors that lead to the landslide occurrence is the combination of critical events initiated with rainfall, causing a reduction in suction. The sites consist of a mixture of rocks and soil. The slope failure occurs due to the saturation of the soil layer leading to loss of soil strength resulting in the flow of the entire soil rock mass. The land-use change, construction activities, other human and natural activities that lead to faster disintegration of rock mass may accelerate the landslide events. Landslides in these slopes are inevitable, and the development of an early warning system (EWS) to save human lives and resources is a feasible way. The actual time of failure of a slope can be better predicted by considering all these factors rather than depending solely on the rainfall intensities. An effective EWS is required with less false alarms in these regions by proper instrumentation of slope and appropriate climatic downscaling.

Keywords: early warning system, historic image analysis, slope instrumentation, unsaturated soil mechanics

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Authors: Saeed Ghali, Hoda El-Faramawy, Mamdouh Eissa, Michael Mishreky

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Scale-resistant austenitic stainless steel, X45CrNiW 18-9, has been developed, and modified steels produced through partial and total nickel replacement by nitrogen. These modified steels were produced in a 10 kg induction furnace under different nitrogen pressures and were cast into ingots. The produced modified stainless steels were forged, followed by air cooling. The phases of modified stainless steels have been investigated using the Schaeffler diagram, dilatometer, and microstructure observations. Both partial and total replacement of nickel using 0.33-0.50% nitrogen are effective in producing fully austenitic stainless steels. The nitrogen contents were determined and compared with those calculated using the Institute of Metal Science (IMS) equation. The results showed great deviations between the actual nitrogen contents and predicted values through IMS equation. So, an equation has been derived based on chemical composition, pressure, and temperature at 1600oC. [N%] = 0.0078 + 0.0406*X, where X is a function of chemical composition and nitrogen pressure. The derived equation has been used to calculate the nitrogen content of different steels using published data. The results reveal the difficulty of deriving a general equation for the prediction of nitrogen content covering different steel compositions. So, it is necessary to use a narrow composition range.

Keywords: solubility, nitrogen, stainless steel, Schaeffler

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Authors: Niya Chen, Jennifer Chan

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In the financial market, risk management helps to minimize potential loss and maximize profit. There are two ways to assess risks; the first way is to calculate the risk directly based on the volatility. The most common risk measurements are Value at Risk (VaR), sharp ratio, and beta. Alternatively, we could look at the quantile of the return to assess the risk. Popular return models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) focus on modeling the mean of the return distribution via capturing the volatility dynamics; however, the quantile/expectile method will give us an idea of the distribution with the extreme return value. It will allow us to forecast VaR using return which is direct information. The advantage of using these non-parametric methods is that it is not bounded by the distribution assumptions from the parametric method. But the difference between them is that expectile uses a second-order loss function while quantile regression uses a first-order loss function. We consider several quantile functions, different volatility measures, and estimates from some volatility models. To estimate the expectile of the model, we use Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) model with the bayesian method to achieve this. We would like to see if our proposed models outperform existing models in cryptocurrency, and we will test it by using Bitcoin mainly as well as Ethereum.

Keywords: expectile, CARE Model, CARR Model, quantile, cryptocurrency, Value at Risk

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Authors: Khaled M. Alqahtani

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Copy number alterations (CNA) are variations in the structure of the genome, where certain regions deviate from the typical two chromosomal copies. These alterations are pivotal in understanding tumor progression and are indicative of patients' survival outcomes. However, effectively modeling patients' survival based on their genomic CNA profiles while identifying relevant genomic regions remains a statistical challenge. Various methods, such as the Cox proportional hazard (PH) model with ridge, lasso, or elastic net penalties, have been proposed but often overlook the inherent dependencies between genomic regions, leading to results that are hard to interpret. In this study, we enhance the elastic net penalty by incorporating an additional penalty that accounts for these dependencies. This approach yields smooth parameter estimates and facilitates variable selection, resulting in a sparse solution. Our findings demonstrate that this method outperforms other models in predicting survival outcomes, as evidenced by our simulation study. Moreover, it allows for a more meaningful interpretation of genomic regions associated with patients' survival. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach using both real data from a lung cancer cohort and simulated datasets.

Keywords: copy number alterations, cox proportional hazard, lung cancer, regression, sparse solution

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Authors: Hotlan Siagian, Hatane Semuel, Wilma Laura Sahetapy

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This study aims at examining the effect of market orientation on marketing performance through product adaptation strategy. The population of the research is domestic leather craft companies located in five regions, the center of the leather craft industry in Indonesia, i.e., Central Java, East Java, South Sulawesi, Bali, and West Kalimantan. The respondent consists of a manager level from each company. Data collection used a questionnaire designed with five-item Likert scale. Collected data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM) technique with SmartPLS software version 3.0 to examine the hypotheses. The result of the study shows that all hypotheses are supported. Market orientation affects marketing performance. Market orientation affects product adaptation strategy. Product adaptation strategy influences the marketing performance. The research also has revealed the main finding that product adaptation strategy contributes to a mediating role in the market orientation strategy and marketing performance relationship. The leather craft companies in Indonesia, therefore, may refer to this result in improving their marketing performance.

Keywords: leather craft industry, market orientation, marketing performance, product adaptation strategy

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Authors: Javeria Arain, Saad Malik

Abstract:

The management of solid waste is a crucial and essential aspect of urban environmental management especially in a city with an ever increasing population such as Karachi. The total amount of municipal solid waste generated from Gulshan e Iqbal town on average is 444.48 tons per day and landfill sites are a widely accepted solution for final disposal of this waste. However, an improperly selected site can have immense environmental, economical and ecological impacts. To select an appropriate landfill site a number of factors should be kept into consideration to minimize the potential hazards of solid waste. The purpose of this research is to analyse the study area for the construction of an appropriate landfill site for disposal of municipal solid waste generated from Gulshan e-Iqbal Town by using geospatial techniques considering hydrological, geological, social and geomorphological factors. This was achieved using analytical hierarchy process and fuzzy analysis as a decision support tool with integration of geographic information sciences techniques. Eight most critical parameters, relevant to the study area, were selected. After generation of thematic layers for each parameter, overlay analysis was performed in ArcGIS 10.0 software. The results produced by both methods were then compared with each other and the final suitability map using AHP shows that 19% of the total area is Least Suitable, 6% is Suitable but avoided, 46% is Moderately Suitable, 26% is Suitable, 2% is Most Suitable and 1% is Restricted. In comparison the output map of fuzzy set theory is not in crisp logic rather it provides an output map with a range of 0-1, where 0 indicates least suitable and 1 indicates most suitable site. Considering the results it is deduced that the northern part of the city is appropriate for constructing the landfill site though a final decision for an optimal site could be made after field survey and considering economical and political factors.

Keywords: Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), fuzzy set theory, Geographic Information Sciences (GIS), Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)

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Authors: Can Liu, Graham Markowitz, John Balay, Ben Pratt

Abstract:

Baseline or natural hydrology is commonly employed for hydrologic modeling and quantification of hydrologic alteration due to manmade activities. It can inform planning and policy related efforts for various state and federal water resource agencies to restore natural streamflow flow regimes. A common challenge faced by hydrologists is how to replicate unaltered streamflow conditions, particularly in large watershed settings prone to development and regulation. Three different methods were employed to estimate baseline streamflow conditions for 6 major subbasins the Susquehanna River Basin; those being: 1) incorporation of consumptive water use and reservoir operations back into regulated gaged records; 2) using a map correlation method and flow duration (exceedance probability) regression equations; 3) extending the pre-regulation streamflow records based on the relationship between concurrent streamflows at unregulated and regulated gage locations. Parallel analyses were perform among the three methods and limitations associated with each are presented. Results from these analyses indicate that generating baseline streamflow records at large-scale watersheds remain challenging, even with long-term continuous stream gage records available.

Keywords: baseline hydrology, streamflow gage, subbasin, regression

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Authors: Jason West

Abstract:

Low profitability in agriculture production along with increasing scrutiny over environmental effects is limiting food production at scale. In contrast, the mining sector offers access to resources including energy, water, transport and chemicals for food production at low marginal cost. Scalable agricultural production can benefit from the nexus of resources (water, energy, transport) offered by mining activity in remote locations. A decision support bioeconomic model for controlled environment vertical farms was used. Four submodels were used: crop structure, nutrient requirements, resource-crop integration, and economic. They escalate to a macro mathematical model. A demonstrable dynamic systems framework is needed to prove productive outcomes are feasible. We demonstrate a generalized bioeconomic macro model for controlled environment production systems in minesites using systems dynamics modeling methodology. Despite the complexity of bioeconomic modelling of resource-agricultural dynamic processes and interactions, the economic potential greater than general economic models would assume. Scalability of production as an input becomes a key success feature.

Keywords: crop production systems, mathematical model, mining, agriculture, dynamic systems

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Authors: Kalai Lamia, Jilani Faouzi

Abstract:

Measuring and controlling risk is one of the most attractive issues in finance. With the persistence of uncontrolled and erratic stocks movements, volatility is perceived as a barometer of daily fluctuations. An objective measure of this variable seems then needed to control risks and cover those that are considered the most important. Non-linear autoregressive modeling is our first evaluation approach. In particular, we test the presence of “persistence” of conditional variance and the presence of a degree of a leverage effect. In order to resolve for the problem of “asymmetry” in volatility, the retained specifications point to the importance of stocks reactions in response to news. Effects of shocks on volatility highlight also the need to study the “long term” behaviour of conditional variance of stocks returns and articulate the presence of long memory and dependence of time series in the long run. We note that the integrated fractional autoregressive model allows for representing time series that show long-term conditional variance thanks to fractional integration parameters. In order to stop at the dynamics that manage time series, a comparative study of the results of the different models will allow for better understanding volatility structure over the Tunisia stock market, with the aim of accurately predicting fluctuation risks.

Keywords: asymmetry volatility, clustering, stylised facts, leverage effect

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Authors: Saurabh Kumar

Abstract:

In the fiercely competitive landscape of e-commerce, understanding and mitigating customer churn has become paramount for sustainable business growth. This paper presents a thorough investigation into the application of machine learning techniques for churn prediction in e-commerce, aiming to provide actionable insights for businesses seeking to enhance customer retention strategies. We conduct a comparative study of various machine learning algorithms, including traditional statistical methods and ensemble techniques, leveraging a rich dataset sourced from Kaggle. Through rigorous evaluation, we assess the predictive performance, interpretability, and scalability of each method, elucidating their respective strengths and limitations in capturing the intricate dynamics of customer churn. We identified the XGBoost classifier to be the best performing. Our findings not only offer practical guidelines for selecting suitable modeling approaches but also contribute to the broader understanding of customer behavior in the e-commerce domain. Ultimately, this research equips businesses with the knowledge and tools necessary to proactively identify and address churn, thereby fostering long-term customer relationships and sustaining competitive advantage.

Keywords: customer churn, e-commerce, machine learning techniques, predictive performance, sustainable business growth

Procedia PDF Downloads 29