Search results for: contingency theory approach

Authors: Karin Megheșan, Alexandra Popescu, Teodora Dobre

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In the past few years, the Russian Federation has become a central point on the security agenda of the most important international actors, due to its reloaded aggressiveness of foreign policy. Vladimir Putin, the actual president of the Russian Federation, has proven that Russia can and has the willingness to become the powerful actor that used to be during the Cold War. Russia’s new behavior on the international scene showed that Russia has not only expansionist (where expansionist is not only in terms of territory but also of ideology) intentions, but also the necessary resources, to build an empire that may have the power to counterbalance the influence of the United States and stop the expansion of the North-Atlantic Treaty Organization in an equation understood of multipolar Russian view. But in order to do this, there is necessary to follow a well-established plan or policy. Thus, the aim of the paper is to discuss how has the foreign policy of the Russian Federation evolved under the influence of the military and security strategies of the Russian nation, to briefly examine some of the factors that sculpture Russian foreign policy and behavior, in order to reshape a Russian (Soviet) profile so far considered antiquated. Our approach is an argument in favor of the analyses of the recent evolutions embedded in the course of history. In this context, the paper will include analytical thoughts about the Russian foreign policy and the latest strategic documents (security strategy and military doctrine) adopted by the Putin administration, with the purpose to highlight the main direction of action followed by all these documents together. The paper concludes that the military component is to be found in all these strategic documents, as well as at the core of Russian national interest, aspect that proves that Russia is still the adept of the traditional realist paradigm, reshaped in a Russian theory of the multipolar world.

Keywords: hybrid warfare, military component, military doctrine, Russian foreign policy, security strategy

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Authors: Nitaya Buntao

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This paper considers the problems of interval estimation for rainfall mean of the lognormal distribution and the delta-lognormal distribution in Northeastern Thailand. We present here the modified generalized pivotal approach (MGPA) compared to the modified method of variance estimates recovery (MMOVER). The performance of each method is examined in term of coverage probabilities and average lengths by Monte Carlo simulation. An extensive simulation study indicates that the MMOVER performs better than the MGPA approach in terms of the coverage probability; it results in highly accurate coverage probability.

Keywords: rainfall mean, interval estimation, lognormal distribution, delta-lognormal distribution

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Authors: Jon Gunnar Bernburg

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The present study addresses a topic that is fundamental to social movement theory, namely, the contingent link between movement support and movement participation. Usually, only a small fraction of those who agree with the cause of a social movement is mobilized into participating in it (a pattern sometimes referred to as 'the collective action problem'). However, historical moments sometimes emerge when many supporters become mobilized to participate in the movement, greatly enhancing the chance of movement success. By studying a case in point, this paper addresses the limited work on how support and participation are related at such critical moments. Specifically, the paper examines the association between supporting and participating in a huge 'pro-democracy' protest in Iceland in April 2016, in the wake of the global Panama Papers scandal. Organized via social media by only a handful of activists, but supported by a majority of Icelanders, the protest attracted about a fourth of the urban population, leading to a snap election and government change. Surveying Iceland’s urban population, this paper tests hypotheses about the processes mobilizing supporters to participate in the protest. The findings reveal how variables derived from the theories of biographical availability (males vs. females, working class vs. professionals), critical mass (expectations, prior protest success), and social embeddedness (close ties with protesters) moderate the association between protest support and participation. The study helps to account for one of the largest protests in Iceland’s history while contributing to the theory about how historical contexts shape the behavior of movement supporters.

Keywords: Iceland, crisis, protest support vs. participation, theories of mass mobilization

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Authors: F. Farzan Nasab, H. J. M. Geijselaers, I. Baran, A. De Boer

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A method is introduced for the coupled skin-rib optimization of a wing box where mass minimization is the objective and local buckling is the constraint. The structure is made of composite materials where continuity of plies in multiple adjacent panels (blending) has to be satisfied. Blending guarantees the manufacturability of the structure; however, it is a highly challenging constraint to treat and has been under debate in recent research in the same area. To fulfill design guidelines with respect to symmetry, balance, contiguity, disorientation and percentage rule of the layup, a reference for the stacking sequences (stacking sequence table or SST) is generated first. Then, an innovative fully gradient-based optimization approach in relation to a specific SST is introduced to obtain the optimum thickness distribution all over the structure while blending is fulfilled. The proposed optimization approach aims to turn the discrete optimization problem associated with the integer number of plies into a continuous one. As a result of a wing box deflection, a rib is subjected to load values which vary nonlinearly with the amount of deflection. The bending stiffness of a skin affects the wing box deflection and thus affects the load applied to a rib. This indicates the necessity of a coupled skin-rib optimization approach for a more realistic optimized design. The proposed method is examined with the optimization of the layup of a composite stiffened skin and rib of a wing torsion box subjected to in-plane normal and shear loads. Results show that the method can successfully prescribe a valid design with a significantly cheap computation cost.

Keywords: blending, buckling optimization, composite panels, wing torsion box

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Authors: Gemma Postil, Claire Zanin, Michael Halpin, Caroline Ritter

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Illness experience research typically focuses on people that are living with a medical condition; however, the broad consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are impacting those without the virus itself, as many experienced extensive lockdowns, social isolation, and distress. Drawing on conceptual work in the illness experience literature, we argue that policy and social changes tied to COVID-19 produce biographical disruptions. In this sense, we argue that the COVID-19 pandemic produces illness experience without illness, as the pandemic comprehensively impacts health and biography. This paper draws on 30 in-depth interviews with young adults living in Prince Edward Island (PEI), which were conducted as part of a larger project to understand how young adults navigate compliance with the COVID-19 pandemic. We then inductively analyzed the interviews with a constructivist grounded theory approach. Specifically, we demonstrate that young adults living in PEI during the COVID-19 pandemic experienced biographical disruptions throughout the pandemic despite not contracting the virus. First, we detail how some participants experience biographical acceleration, with the pandemic accelerating relationships, home buying, and career planning. Second, we demonstrate biographical stagnation, wherein participants report being unable to pursue major life milestones. Lastly, we describe biographical regression, wherein participants feel they are losing ground during the pandemic and are actively falling behind their peers. These findings provide the novel application of illness experience concepts to the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, contribute to work on illness experience and ambiguity, and extend Bury’s conceptualization of biographical disruption. In conclusion, we demonstrate that young adults experienced the biographical disruption expected from having COVID-19 without having an illness, highlighting the depth to which the pandemic affected young adults.

Keywords: illness experience, lived experience, biographical disruption, COVID-19, young adults

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Authors: Morteza Raminnia

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In this study, dynamic analysis of functionally graded nano-composite pipe reinforced by single-walled carbon nano-tubes (SWCNTs) with simply supported boundary condition subjected to moving mechanical loads is investigated. The material properties of functionally graded carbon nano tube-reinforced composites (FG-CNTRCs) are assumed to be graded in the thickness direction and are estimated through a micro-mechanical model. In this paper polymeric matrix considered as isotropic material and for the CNTRC, uniform distribution (UD) and three types of FG distribution patterns of SWCNT reinforcements are considered. The system equation of motion is derived by using Hamilton's principle under the assumptions of first order shear deformation theory (FSDT).The thin piezoelectric layers embedded on inner and outer surfaces of FG-CNTRC layer are acted as distributed sensor and actuator to control dynamic characteristics of the FG-CNTRC laminated pipe. The modal analysis technique and Newmark's integration method are used to calculate the displacement and dynamic stress of the pipe subjected to moving loads. The effects of various material distribution and velocity of moving loads on dynamic behavior of the pipe is presented. This present approach is validated by comparing the numerical results with the published numerical results in literature. The results show that the above-mentioned effects play very important role on dynamic behavior of the pipe .This present work shows that some meaningful results that which are interest to scientific and engineering community in the field of FGM nano-structures.

Keywords: nano-composite, functionally garded material, moving load, active control, PZT layers

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Authors: Dinesh N. Kurup, Celine Perriera

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The economic development of any country is based on the policies adopted by the government from time to time. If these policies are framed by the opinion of the people of the country, there is need for having strong knowledge base, right from the school level. There should be emphasis to provide in education, an ability to take informed decisions regarding socio-scientific issues. It would be better to adopt this practice in high school classrooms to build capacity among future citizens. This study is an attempt to provide a different approach of teaching and learning in classrooms at the high school level in Indian schools for providing opportunity for informed decision making regarding nuclear power use. A unit of work based on the 5E instructional model about the use of nuclear energy is used to build knowledge base and find out the effectiveness in terms of its influence for taking decisions as a future citizen. A sample of 120 students from three high schools using different curricula and teaching and learning methods were chosen for this study. This research used a design based research method. A pre and post questionnaire based on the theory of reasoned action, structured observations, focus group interviews and opportunity for decision making were used during the intervention. The data analysed qualitatively and quantitatively, and the qualitative data were coded into categories based on responses. The results of the study show that students were able to make informed decisions and could give reasons for their decisions. They were enthusiastic in formulating policy making based on their knowledge base and have strong held views and reasoning for their choice.

Keywords: informed decision making, socio-scientific issues, nuclear energy use, policy making

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Authors: Hicham Benamirouche, Oum Elkheir Moussi

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The purpose of the study is to examine the dynamics of Algeria’s natural gas exports through the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach with break points. The analysis was carried out for the period from 1967 to 2015. Based on imperfect substitution specification, the ARDL approach reveals a long-run equilibrium relationship between Algeria’s Natural gas exports and their determinant factors (Algeria’s gas reserves, Domestic gas consumption, Europe’s GDP per capita, relative prices, the European gas production and the market share of competitors). All the long-run elasticities estimated are statistically significant with a large impact of domestic factors, which constitute the supply constraints. In short term, the elasticities are statistically significant, and almost comparable to those of the long term. Furthermore, the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium is less than one year because of the little flexibility of the long term export contracts. Two break points have been estimated when we employ the domestic gas consumption as a break variable; 1984 and 2010, which reflect the arbitration policy between the domestic gas market and gas exports.

Keywords: natural gas exports, elasticity, ARDL bounds testing, break points, Algeria

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Authors: Somia Bouzid, Messaoud Ramdani

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The success of any diagnosis strategy critically depends on the sensors measuring process variables. This paper presents a detection and diagnosis sensor faults method based on a Bottleneck Neural Network (BNN). The BNN approach is used as a statistical process control tool for drinking water distribution (DWD) systems to detect and isolate the sensor faults. Variable reconstruction approach is very useful for sensor fault isolation, this method is validated in simulation on a nonlinear system: actual drinking water distribution system. Several results are presented.

Keywords: fault detection, localization, PCA, NLPCA, auto-associative neural network

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Authors: Marwa Elkalla, E. Ali Abdelfadil, Ali. Mohamed. M. Sami, Ali M. Abdel-Monem

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To assess the impact of the blood collection technique on clinical pathology markers and to establish reference intervals, a study was performed using normal, healthy C57BL/6 mice. Both sexes were employed, and they were randomly assigned to different groups depending on the phlebotomy technique used. The blood was drawn in one of four ways: intracardiac (IC), caudal vena cava (VC), caudal vena cava (VC) plus a peritoneal collection of any extravasated blood, or retroorbital phlebotomy (RO). Several serum biochemistries, such as a liver function test, a complete blood count with differentials, and a platelet count, were analysed from the blood and serum samples analysed. Red blood cell count, haemoglobin (p >0.002), hematocrit, alkaline phosphatase, albumin, total protein, and creatinine were all significantly greater in female mice. Platelet counts, specific white blood cell numbers (total, neutrophil, lymphocyte, and eosinophil counts), globulin, amylase, and the BUN/creatinine ratio were all greater in males. The VC approach seemed marginally superior to the IC approach for the characteristics under consideration and was linked to the least variation among both sexes. Transaminase levels showed the greatest variation between study groups. The aspartate aminotransferase (AST) values were linked with decreased fluctuation for the VC approach, but the alanine aminotransferase (ALT) values were similar between the IC and VC groups. There was a lot of diversity and range in transaminase levels between the MC and RO groups. We found that the RO approach, the only one tested that allowed for repeated sample collection, yielded acceptable ALT readings. The findings show that the test results are significantly affected by the phlebotomy technique and that the VC or IC techniques provide the most reliable data. When organising a study and comparing data to reference ranges, the ranges supplied here by collection method and sex can be utilised to determine the best approach to data collection. The authors suggest establishing norms based on the procedures used by each individual researcher in his or her own lab.

Keywords: clinical, pathology, blood, effect

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Authors: Wookyong Kwon, Sangmoon Lee

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In this paper, a sampled-data model predictive tracking control method is presented for mobile robots which is modeled as constrained continuous-time linear parameter varying (LPV) systems. The presented sampled-data predictive controller is designed by linear matrix inequality approach. Based on the input delay approach, a controller design condition is derived by constructing a new Lyapunov function. Finally, a numerical example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented method.

Keywords: model predictive control, sampled-data control, linear parameter varying systems, LPV

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Authors: Oscar Javier Montiel Mendez

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The link between knowledge-creativity-innovation-entrepreneurship is well established, and broadly emphasized the importance of national innovation systems (NIS) as an approach stresses that the flow of information and technology among people, organizations and institutions are key to its process. Understanding the linkages among the actors involved in innovation is relevant to NIS. Creativity is supposed to fuel NIS, mainly focusing on a personal, group or organizational level, leaving aside the fourth one, as a national system. It is suggested that NIS takes Creativity for granted, an ex-ante stage already solved through some mechanisms, like programs for nurturing it at elementary and secondary schools, universities, or public/organizational specific programs. Or worse, that the individual already has this competence, and that the elements of the NIS will communicate between in a way that will lead to the creation of S curves, with an impact on national systems/programs on entrepreneurship, clusters, and the economy. But creativity constantly appears at any time during NIS, being the key input. Under an initial, exploratory, focused and refined literature review, based on Csikszentmihalyi’s systemic model, Amabile's componential theory, Kaufman and Beghetto’s 4C model, and the OECD’s (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) NIS model (expanded), an NCS theoretical model is elaborated. Its suggested that its implementation could become a significant factor helping strengthen local, regional and national economies. The results also suggest that the establishment of a national creativity system (NCS), something that appears not been previously addressed, as a strategic/vital companion for a NIS, installing it not only as a national education strategy, but as its foundation, managing it and measuring its impact on NIS, entrepreneurship and the rest of the ecosystem, could make more effective public policies. Likewise, it should have a beneficial impact on the efforts of all the stakeholders involved and should help prevent some of the possible failures that NIS present.

Keywords: national creativity system, national innovation system, entrepreneurship ecosystem, systemic creativity

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Authors: Zhao Yu, Zhi-Nan Zhang

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More and more interactive devices are used in the transportation service system. Our mobile phones, on-board computers, and Head-Up Displays (HUDs) can all be used as the tools of the in-car service system. People can access smart systems with different terminals such as mobile phones, computers, pads and even their cars and watches. Different forms of terminals bring the different quality of interaction by the various human-computer Interaction modes. The new interactive devices require good ergonomics design at each stage of the whole design process. According to the theory of human factors and ergonomics, this paper compared three types of interactive devices by four driving tasks. Forty-eight drivers were chosen to experience these three interactive devices (mobile phones, on-board computers, and HUDs) by a simulate driving process. The subjects evaluated ergonomics performance and subjective workload after the process. And subjects were encouraged to support suggestions for improving the interactive device. The result shows that different interactive devices have different advantages in driving tasks, especially in non-driving tasks such as information and entertainment fields. Compared with mobile phones and onboard groups, the HUD groups had shorter response times in most tasks. The tasks of slow-up and the emergency braking are less accurate than the performance of a control group, which may because the haptic feedback of these two tasks is harder to distinguish than the visual information. Simulated driving is also helpful in improving the design of in-vehicle interactive devices. The paper summarizes the ergonomics characteristics of three in-vehicle interactive devices. And the research provides a reference for the future design of in-vehicle interactive devices through an ergonomic approach to ensure a good interaction relationship between the driver and the in-vehicle service system.

Keywords: human factors, industrial ergonomics, transportation system, usability, vehicle user interface

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Authors: Natalia Banasik

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Comprehension of verbal irony is an example of pragmatic competence in understanding figurative language. The knowledge of how it develops may shed new light on the understanding of social and communicative competence that is crucial for one's effective functioning in the society. Researchers agree it is a competence that develops late in a child’s development. One of the abilities that seems crucial for irony comprehension is theory of mind (ToM), that is the ability to understand that others may have beliefs, desires and intentions different from one’s own. Although both theory of mind and irony comprehension require the ability to understand the figurative use of the false description of the reality, the exact relationship between them is still unknown. Also, even though irony comprehension in children has been studied for over thirty years, the results of the studies are inconsistent as to the age when this competence are acquired. The presented study aimed to answer questions about the developmental trajectories of irony comprehension and ascribing function to ironic utterances by preschool children. Specifically, we were interested in how it is related to the development of ToM and how comprehension of the function of irony changes with age. Data was collected from over 150 monolingual, Polish-speaking children and (so far) thirty bilingual children speaking Polish and English who live in the US. Four-, five- and six-year-olds were presented with a story comprehension task in the form of audio and visual stimuli programmed in the E-prime software (pre-recorded narrated stories, some of which included ironic utterances, and pictures accompanying the stories displayed on a touch screen). Following the presentation, the children were then asked to answer a series of questions. The questions checked the children’s understanding of the intended utterance meaning, evaluation of the degree to which it was funny and evaluation of how nice the speaker was. The children responded by touching the screen, which made it possible to measure reaction times. Additionally, the children were asked to explain why the speaker had uttered the ironic statement. Both quantitive and qualitative analyses were applied. The results of our study indicate that for irony recognition there is a significant difference among the three age groups, but what is new is that children as young as four do understand the real meaning behind the ironic statement as long as the utterance is not grammtically or lexically complex also, there is a clear correlation of ToM and irony comprehension. Although four-year olds and six-year olds understand the real meaning of the ironic utterance, it is not earlier than at the age of six when children start to explain the reason of using this marked form of expression. They talk about the speaker's intention to tell a joke, be funny, or to protect the listener's emotions. There are also some metalinguistic references, such as "mommy sometimes says things that don't make sense and this is called a metaphor".

Keywords: child's pragmatics, figurative speech, irony comprehension in children, theory of mind and irony

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Authors: Elizabeth Farquhar, Erich Ritter

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Studying shark's interaction with humans and their behavioral responses will have enormous implications for other fields of marine biology and oceanography. The health of sharks has direct impacts on the stability of human society with a reported 3.5 billion people depending on the ocean for food and/or livelihood. Discovering how sharks behave and interact with people, will have enormous implications for future studies, along with the development of more effective ways to reduce negative shark/human interactions. This specific study investigates the effects of contrasting ponchos worn by divers on the approach distances of Carcharhinus perezi. Data was collected over a two week period at a test site off the shore of Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas, with a depth of approximately 55 feet during mid-August. Sixty-minute dive trials were conducted and videoed from above with 5-meter radius markers on the ocean floor surrounding the two divers, kneeling back-to-back. Five poncho colors were worn by the two divers (black, navy blue, dark green, yellow and orange), rotating the color permutations randomly to test the distance a shark will approach each color. Results indicate significantly closer approach patterns when divers were wearing orange ponchos, and the combination of orange with black and blue ponchos were found to be statistically significant. These results are relevant to understanding how sharks perceive contrast and dive equipment in the marine environment, which could have the potential to prevent negative shark/human interactions.

Keywords: shark behavior, animal behavior, marine biology, conservation

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Authors: Keerti Kembhavi, M. R. Archana, V. Anjaneyappa

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Most asphalt pavement condition evaluation use rating frameworks in which asphalt pavement distress is estimated by type, extent, and severity. Rating is carried out by the pavement condition rating (PCR), which is tedious and expensive. This paper presents the development of a low-cost technique for image pavement distress analysis that permits the identification of pothole and cracks. The paper explores the application of image processing tools for the detection of potholes and cracks. Longitudinal cracking and pothole are detected using Fuzzy-C- Means (FCM) and proceeded with the Spectral Theory algorithm. The framework comprises three phases, including image acquisition, processing, and extraction of features. A digital camera (Gopro) with the holder is used to capture pavement distress images on a moving vehicle. FCM classifier and Spectral Theory algorithms are used to compute features and classify the longitudinal cracking and pothole. The Matlab2016Ra Image preparing tool kit utilizes performance analysis to identify the viability of pavement distress on selected urban stretches of Bengaluru city, India. The outcomes of image evaluation with the utilization semi-computerized image handling framework represented the features of longitudinal crack and pothole with an accuracy of about 80%. Further, the detected images are validated with the actual dimensions, and it is seen that dimension variability is about 0.46. The linear regression model y=1.171x-0.155 is obtained using the existing and experimental / image processing area. The R2 correlation square obtained from the best fit line is 0.807, which is considered in the linear regression model to be ‘large positive linear association’.

Keywords: crack detection, pothole detection, spectral clustering, fuzzy-c-means

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Authors: Marina Nechayeva, Malgorzata Marciniak, Vladimir Przhebelskiy, A. Dragutan, S. Lamichhane, S. Oikawa

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This presentation is a progress report on a faculty-student research collaboration at CUNY LaGuardia Community College (LaGCC) aimed at designing a small horizontal axis wind turbine optimized for the wind patterns on the roof of our campus. Our project combines statistical and engineering research. Our wind modeling protocol is based upon a recent wind study by a faculty-student research group at MIT, and some of our blade design methods are adopted from a senior engineering project at CUNY City College. Our use of genetic algorithms has been inspired by the work on small wind turbines’ design by David Wood. We combine these diverse approaches in our interdisciplinary project in a way that has not been done before and improve upon certain techniques used by our predecessors. We employ several estimation methods to determine the best fitting parametric probability distribution model for the local wind speed data obtained through correlating short-term on-site measurements with a long-term time series at the nearby airport. The model serves as a foundation for engineering research that focuses on adapting and implementing genetic algorithms (GAs) to engineering optimization of the wind turbine design using Blade Element Momentum Theory. GAs are used to create new airfoils with desirable aerodynamic specifications. Small scale models of best performing designs are 3D printed and tested in the wind tunnel to verify the accuracy of relevant calculations. Genetic algorithms are applied to selected airfoils to determine the blade design (radial cord and pitch distribution) that would optimize the coefficient of power profile of the turbine. Our approach improves upon the traditional blade design methods in that it lets us dispense with assumptions necessary to simplify the system of Blade Element Momentum Theory equations, thus resulting in more accurate aerodynamic performance calculations. Furthermore, it enables us to design blades optimized for a whole range of wind speeds rather than a single value. Lastly, we improve upon known GA-based methods in that our algorithms are constructed to work with XFoil generated airfoils data which enables us to optimize blades using our own high glide ratio airfoil designs, without having to rely upon available empirical data from existing airfoils, such as NACA series. Beyond its immediate goal, this ongoing project serves as a training and selection platform for CUNY Research Scholars Program (CRSP) through its annual Aerodynamics and Wind Energy Research Seminar (AWERS), an undergraduate summer research boot camp, designed to introduce prospective researchers to the relevant theoretical background and methodology, get them up to speed with the current state of our research, and test their abilities and commitment to the program. Furthermore, several aspects of the research (e.g., writing code for 3D printing of airfoils) are adapted in the form of classroom research activities to enhance Calculus sequence instruction at LaGCC.

Keywords: engineering design optimization, genetic algorithms, horizontal axis wind turbine, wind modeling

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Authors: Michinori Nakata, Hiroshi Sakai

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A rough set, which consists of lower and upper approximations, is formulated in information tables containing possibilistic information. First, lower and upper approximations on the basis of possible world semantics in the same way as Lipski did in the field of incomplete databases are shown in order to clarify fundamentals of rough sets under possibilistic information. Possibility and necessity measures are used, as is done in possibilistic databases. As a result, each object has certain and possible membership degrees to lower and upper approximations, which degrees are the lower and upper bounds. Therefore, the degree that the object belongs to lower and upper approximations is expressed by an interval value. And the complementary property linked with the lower and upper approximations holds, as is valid under complete information. Second, the approach based on indiscernibility relations, which is proposed by Dubois and Prade, are extended in three cases. The first case is that objects used to approximate a set of objects are characterized by possibilistic information. The second case is that objects used to approximate a set of objects with possibilistic information are characterized by complete information. The third case is that objects that are characterized by possibilistic information approximate a set of objects with possibilistic information. The extended approach create the same results as the approach based on possible world semantics. This justifies our extension.

Keywords: rough sets, possibilistic information, possible world semantics, indiscernibility relations, lower approximations, upper approximations

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Authors: Syed Ahzam Tariq, Atharva Modi

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This paper presents a probabilistic analysis of the safety of water tube boilers using fault tree analysis (FTA). A fault tree has been constructed by considering all possible areas where a malfunction could lead to a boiler accident. Boiler accidents are relatively rare, causing a scarcity of data. The fuzzy approach is employed to perform a quantitative analysis, wherein theories of fuzzy logic are employed in conjunction with expert elicitation to calculate failure probabilities. The Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) provides a scientific and contingent method to forecast and prevent accidents.

Keywords: fault tree analysis water tube boiler, fuzzy probability score, failure probability

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Authors: Tazeen Fatima

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Use of project management in web & software development projects is very significant. It has been observed that even with the application of effective project management, projects usually do not complete their lifecycle and fail. To minimize these failures, key performance indicators have been introduced in previous studies to counter project failures. However, there are always gaps and problems in the KPIs identified. Despite of incessant efforts at technical and managerial levels, projects still fail. There is no substantial approach to identify and avoid these failures in the very beginning of the project lifecycle. In this study, we aim to answer these research problems by analyzing the concept of predictive analytics which is a specialized technology and is very easy to use in this era of computation. Project organizations can use data gathering, compute power, and modern tools to render efficient Predictions. The research aims to identify such a predictive analytics approach. The core objective of the study was to reduce failures and introduce effective implementation of project management principles. Existing predictive analytics methodologies, tools and solution providers were also analyzed. Relevant data was gathered from projects and was analyzed via predictive techniques to make predictions well advance in time to render effective project management in web & software development industry.

Keywords: project management, predictive analytics, predictive analytics methodology, project failures

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Authors: Dia I. Abu-Al-Nadi, M. J. Mismar, T. H. Ismail

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A technique for estimating the direction-of-arrival (DOA) of unknown number of source signals is presented using the eigen-approach. The eigenvector corresponding to the minimum eigenvalue of the autocorrelation matrix yields the minimum output power of the array. Also, the array polynomial with this eigenvector possesses roots on the unit circle. Therefore, the pseudo-spectrum is found by perturbing the phases of the roots one by one and calculating the corresponding array output power. The results indicate that the DOAs and the number of source signals are estimated accurately in the presence of a wide range of input noise levels.

Keywords: array signal processing, direction-of-arrival, antenna arrays, Eigenvalues, Eigenvectors, Lagrange multiplier

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Authors: Abir Touati, Syed Jawad Hussain, Farid Touati, Ammar Bouallegue

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Although there has been a growing interest in the hybrid free-space optical link and radio frequency FSO/RF communication system, the current literature is limited to results obtained in moderate or cold environment. In this paper, using a soft switching approach, we investigate the effect of weather inhomogeneities on the strength of turbulence hence the channel refractive index under Qatar harsh environment and their influence on the hybrid FSO/RF availability. In this approach, either FSO/RF or simultaneous or none of them can be active. Based on soft switching approach and a finite state Markov Chain (FSMC) process, we model the channel fading for the two links and derive a mathematical expression for the outage probability of the hybrid system. Then, we evaluate the behavior of the hybrid FSO/RF under hazy and harsh weather. Results show that the FSO/RF soft switching renders the system outage probability less than that of each link individually. A soft switching algorithm is being implemented on FPGAs using Raptor code interfaced to the two terminals of a 1Gbps/100 Mbps FSO/RF hybrid system, the first being implemented in the region. Experimental results are compared to the above simulation results.

Keywords: atmospheric turbulence, haze, hybrid FSO/RF, outage probability, refractive index

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Authors: Cathrine Scharning Cornwall-Nyquist, David Rafael Vaz Fernandes

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Since its origins, mankind has been dreaming of communicating directly with other animals. Past civilizations interacted on different levels with other species and recognized them in their rituals and daily activities. However, recent scientific developments have limited the ability of humans to consider deeper levels of interaction beyond observation and/or physical behavior. In recent years, animal caretakers and facilities such as sanctuaries or rescue centers have been introducing new techniques based on intuition. Most of those initiatives are related to specific cases, such as the incapacity to understand an animal’s behavior. Respected organizations also include intuitive animal communication (IAC) sessions to follow up on past interventions with their animals. Despite the lack of credibility of this discipline, some animal caring structures have opted to integrate IAC into their daily routines and approaches to animal welfare. At this stage, animal communication will be generally defined as the ability of humans to communicate with animals on an intuitive level. The trend in the field remains to be explored. The lack of theory and previous research urges the scientific community to improve the description of the phenomenon and its consequences. Considering the current scenario, qualitative approaches may become a suitable pathway to explore this topic. The purpose of this case study is to explore the beliefs behind and the consequences of an approach based on intuitive animal communication techniques for Panthera Africa (PA), an ethical sanctuary located in South Africa. Due to their personal experience, the Sanctuary’s founders have developed a philosophy based on IAC while respecting the world's highest standards for big cat welfare. Their dual approach is reflected in their rescues, daily activities, and healing animals’ trauma. The case study's main research questions will be: (i) Why do they choose to apply IAC in their work? (ii) What consequences to their activities do IAC bring? (iii) What effects do IAC techniques bring in their interactions with the outside world? Data collection will be gathered on-site via: (i) Complete participation (field notes); (ii) Semi-structured interviews (audio transcriptions); (iii) Document analysis (internal procedures and policies); (iv) Audio-visual material (communication with third parties). The main researcher shall become an active member of the Sanctuary during a 30-day period and have full access to the site. Access to documents and audio-visual materials will be granted on a request basis. Interviews are expected to be held with PA founders and staff members and with IAC practitioners related to the facility. The information gathered shall enable the researcher to provide an extended description of the phenomenon and explore its internal and external consequences for Panthera Africa.

Keywords: animal welfare, intuitive animal communication, Panthera Africa, rescue

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Authors: Jodie Lee, Lorena Chan, Esther Tong

Abstract:

Hong Kong students face a unique learning environment. Starting from the 2010/2011 school year, The Education Bureau (EDB) of the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region implemented the fine-tuned Medium of Instruction (MOI) arrangements for secondary schools. Since then, secondary schools in Hong Kong have been given the flexibility to decide the most appropriate MOI arrangements for their schools and under the new academic structure for senior secondary education, particularly on the compulsory part of the mathematics curriculum. In 2019, Hong Kong Diploma of Secondary Education Examination (HKDSE), over 40% of school day candidates attempted the Mathematics Compulsory Part examination in the Chinese version while the rest took the English version. Moreover, only 14.38% of candidates sat for one of the extended Mathematics modules. This results in a serious of intricate issues to students’ learning in post-secondary education programmes. It is worth to note that when students further pursue to an higher education in Hong Kong or even oversea, they may facing substantial difficulties in transiting learning from learning mathematics in their mother tongue in Chinese-medium instruction (CMI) secondary schools to an English-medium learning environment. Some students understood the mathematics concepts were found to fail to fulfill the course requirements at college or university due to their learning experience in secondary study at CMI. They are particularly weak in comprehending the mathematics questions when they are doing their assessment or attempting the test/examination. A government funded project was conducted with the aims of providing integrated learning context and language support to students with a lower level of numeracy and/or with CMI learning experience. By introducing this “integrated concept + language mapping approach”, students can cope with the learning challenges in the compulsory English-medium mathematics and statistics subjects in their tertiary education. Ultimately, in the hope that students can enhance their mathematical ability, analytical skills, and numerical sense for their lifelong learning. The “Concept + Language Mapping “(CLM) approach was adopted and tried out in the bridging courses for students with a lower level of numeracy and/or with CMI learning experiences. At the beginning of each class, a pre-test was conducted, and class time was then devoted to introducing the concepts by CLM approach. For each concept, the key thematic items and their different semantic relations are presented using graphics and animations via the CLM approach. At the end of each class, a post-test was conducted. Quantitative data analysis was performed to study the effect on students’ learning via the CLM approach. Stakeholders' feedbacks were collected to estimate the effectiveness of the CLM approach in facilitating both content and language learning. The results based on both students’ and lecturers’ feedback indicated positive outcomes on adopting the CLM approach to enhance the mathematical ability and analytical skills of CMI students.

Keywords: mathematics, Concept+Language Mapping, level of numeracy, medium of instruction

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Authors: Chanya Inprasit, Yi-Wen Lin

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Inflammation causes changes of peripheral and central nervous system properties, affecting both neuronal and non-neuronal cells, resulting in inflammatory pain. Acupoint injection (AI) was developed in the 1950s and has been widely used for relieving pain. It is an acupoint-stimulating technique that utilizes anatomically based meridians derived from Chinese medicine theory. AI has been accepted as an effective treatment and is thought to display superior results when compared to traditional acupuncture methods. However, the mechanism of AI needs to be ratified by more scientific evidence in order to support the theory and its therapeutic development. In this study, we explored the effect of AI on the comorbidity of chronic pain and depression. Mice hindpaw was injected by complete Freund’s adjuvant (CFA) to induce the condition of chronic pain. Measurements of mechanical and thermal hyperalgesia and depression-like behavior were analyzed. The results indicated a positive tendency to AI treatment. The comorbidity of chronic pain and depression was investigated with relation to transient receptor potential V1 (TRPV1) mechanism through the use of TRPV1 gene deletion. The expression of nociceptors such as voltage-gated sodium channels (Navs) or TRPV1, was significantly down-regulated by AI. The expression of inflammation-activated molecules: astrocytic marker glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), the microglial marker Iba-1, S100B, and related kinases, were reversed by AI in both the peripheral and central nervous system. Taken together, these data provided a detailed molecular mechanism of AI-induced analgesia and anti-inflammatory properties. This finding may be utilized for clinical practice to treat chronic pain and depression comorbidity.

Keywords: inflammatory pain, acupoint injection, TRPV1, GFAP, S100B

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Authors: Sheam-Chyun Lin, Wei-Kai Chen, Hung-Cheng Yen, Yung-Jen Cheng, Yu-Cheng Chen

Abstract:

Result from the constant dwindle in natural resources, the alternative way to reduce the costs in our daily life would be urgent to be found in the near future. As the ancient technique based on the theory of solar chimney since roman times, the double-skin façade are simply composed of two large glass panels in purpose of daylighting and also natural ventilation in the daytime. Double-skin façade is generally installed on the exterior side of buildings as function as the window, so there’s always a huge amount of passive solar energy the façade would receive to induce the airflow every sunny day. Therefore this article imposes a domestic double-skin window for residential usage and attempts to improve the volume flow rate inside the cavity between the panels by the frame geometry design, the installation of outlet guide plate and the solar energy collection system. Note that the numerical analyses are applied to investigate the characteristics of flow field, and the boundary conditions in the simulation are totally based on the practical experiment of the original prototype. Then we redesign the prototype from the knowledge of the numerical results and fluid dynamic theory, and later the experiments of modified prototype will be conducted to verify the simulation results. The velocities at the inlet of each case are increase by 5%, 45% and 15% from the experimental data, and also the numerical simulation results reported 20% improvement in volume flow rate both for the frame geometry design and installation of outlet guide plate.

Keywords: solar energy, double-skin façades, thermal buoyancy, fluid machinery

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Authors: Andrea Trimarchi

Abstract:

This paper is designed to provide a comprehensive overview on the EU Regulation No. 868/2004 concerning protection against subsidisation and unfair pricing practices regarding non-EU carriers and causing injury to Community air carriers. The analysis will focus, at first, on the exegetical scrutiny of the legal categories encompassed by the Regulation. In addition to that, while considering the peculiarities of such legal instrument, the attention will be addressed on the assessment on its effectiveness. The Regulation, indeed, having received lots of criticism, is in need of a profound revision. In this context, the present work will try to take into account the policy alternatives. In light of the failure of Regulation 868, which is to be seen as the expression of a unilateral and regional approach, there would seem to be the necessity for the aviation sector to reconsider the topic of subsidisation and unfair pricing practices in a more international oriented manner.

Keywords: non-EU airlines, aviation, subisidisation, unfair

Procedia PDF Downloads 337

Authors: Zhidong Zhang

Abstract:

This study established a mixed method model in assessing statistics learning with Bayesian network models. There are three variants in exploratory sequential designs. There are three linked steps in one of the designs: qualitative data collection and analysis, quantitative measure, instrument, intervention, and quantitative data collection analysis. The study used a scoring model of analysis of variance (ANOVA) as a content domain. The research study is to examine students’ learning in both semantic and performance aspects at fine grain level. The ANOVA score model, y = α+ βx1 + γx1+ ε, as a cognitive task to collect data during the student learning process. When the learning processes were decomposed into multiple steps in both semantic and performance aspects, a hierarchical Bayesian network was established. This is a theory-driven process. The hierarchical structure was gained based on qualitative cognitive analysis. The data from students’ ANOVA score model learning was used to give evidence to the hierarchical Bayesian network model from the evidential variables. Finally, the assessment results of students’ ANOVA score model learning were reported. Briefly, this was a mixed method research design applied to statistics learning assessment. The mixed methods designs expanded more possibilities for researchers to establish advanced quantitative models initially with a theory-driven qualitative mode.

Keywords: exploratory sequential design, ANOVA score model, Bayesian network model, mixed methods research design, cognitive analysis

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Authors: Fouad Abdulameer Salman, Aziz Bin Deraman, Masita Binti Abdul Jalil

Abstract:

Usability evaluation is essential for developing usable software systems, yet its integration within agile software development remains a challenging interdisciplinary endeavour. In this paper, the authors present a study to investigate obstacles of such integration from the management perspective. The study incorporates two methods, namely an online questionnaire survey and a series of interviews with participants that answered the questionnaire. Based on the obtained results, a unified approach is proposed for enabling coordinate the efforts of agile developers and usability engineers to produce usable software systems.

Keywords: usability, usability evaluation, software development process, usability management

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Authors: Ahmed Gendia, Waseem Kamran

Abstract:

Objective: Total Laparoscopic hysterectomy (TLH) remains a common approach among laparoscopic surgeons. However, this approach depends on the use of uterine manipulator to facilitate the surgery. Although many studies reported the effectiveness of TLH with uterine manipulator, only few reported TLH without the use of any uterine or vaginal manipulation. the aim of this report is to demonstrate our Technique (kamran's TLH) in performing TLH without the use of any uterine or vaginal manipulation in benign conditions and report our intra- and post-operative outcomes. Methodology : surgical technique will be demonstrated through a short video highlighting the easy and safe to learn surgical steps. Additionally, the data of 86 patients who underwent KTLH for benign condition were retrospectively analyzed. the data included intra- and postoperative finding and complications. Results : A total of 86 hysterectomies were performed utilizing the Kamran's TLH ( KTHL). Mean age was 52.2 (±11) years old and BMI was 28.2(±7). Mean operative time was 64.7(±27.9) minutes and estimated bloods loss was 46.2(±54.6) ml. No intraoperative complications were recorded and there was no conversion to open surgery. Only one patient required readmission and surgery for vaginal vault dehiscence. Conclusion & Significance: Uterine manipulator is a key component in performing laparoscopic hysterectomy. However, our approach demonstrated that TLH can be safely performed without the use of any uterine or vaginal manipulation.

Keywords: laparoscopic hystrectomy, TLH, uterine manipulator, surgery

Procedia PDF Downloads 150