Search results for: laboratory model tests
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 21899

Search results for: laboratory model tests

19289 A Demonstration of How to Employ and Interpret Binary IRT Models Using the New IRT Procedure in SAS 9.4

Authors: Ryan A. Black, Stacey A. McCaffrey

Abstract:

Over the past few decades, great strides have been made towards improving the science in the measurement of psychological constructs. Item Response Theory (IRT) has been the foundation upon which statistical models have been derived to increase both precision and accuracy in psychological measurement. These models are now being used widely to develop and refine tests intended to measure an individual's level of academic achievement, aptitude, and intelligence. Recently, the field of clinical psychology has adopted IRT models to measure psychopathological phenomena such as depression, anxiety, and addiction. Because advances in IRT measurement models are being made so rapidly across various fields, it has become quite challenging for psychologists and other behavioral scientists to keep abreast of the most recent developments, much less learn how to employ and decide which models are the most appropriate to use in their line of work. In the same vein, IRT measurement models vary greatly in complexity in several interrelated ways including but not limited to the number of item-specific parameters estimated in a given model, the function which links the expected response and the predictor, response option formats, as well as dimensionality. As a result, inferior methods (a.k.a. Classical Test Theory methods) continue to be employed in efforts to measure psychological constructs, despite evidence showing that IRT methods yield more precise and accurate measurement. To increase the use of IRT methods, this study endeavors to provide a comprehensive overview of binary IRT models; that is, measurement models employed on test data consisting of binary response options (e.g., correct/incorrect, true/false, agree/disagree). Specifically, this study will cover the most basic binary IRT model, known as the 1-parameter logistic (1-PL) model dating back to over 50 years ago, up until the most recent complex, 4-parameter logistic (4-PL) model. Binary IRT models will be defined mathematically and the interpretation of each parameter will be provided. Next, all four binary IRT models will be employed on two sets of data: 1. Simulated data of N=500,000 subjects who responded to four dichotomous items and 2. A pilot analysis of real-world data collected from a sample of approximately 770 subjects who responded to four self-report dichotomous items pertaining to emotional consequences to alcohol use. Real-world data were based on responses collected on items administered to subjects as part of a scale-development study (NIDA Grant No. R44 DA023322). IRT analyses conducted on both the simulated data and analyses of real-world pilot will provide a clear demonstration of how to construct, evaluate, and compare binary IRT measurement models. All analyses will be performed using the new IRT procedure in SAS 9.4. SAS code to generate simulated data and analyses will be available upon request to allow for replication of results.

Keywords: instrument development, item response theory, latent trait theory, psychometrics

Procedia PDF Downloads 357
19288 Primary School Students’ Modeling Processes: Crime Problem

Authors: Neslihan Sahin Celik, Ali Eraslan

Abstract:

As a result of PISA (Program for International Student Assessments) survey that tests how well students can apply the knowledge and skills they have learned at school to real-life challenges, the new and redesigned mathematics education programs in many countries emphasize the necessity for the students to face complex and multifaceted problem situations and gain experience in this sense allowing them to develop new skills and mathematical thinking to prepare them for their future life after school. At this point, mathematical models and modeling approaches can be utilized in the analysis of complex problems which represent real-life situations in which students can actively participate. In particular, model eliciting activities that bring about situations which allow the students to create solutions to problems and which involve mathematical modeling must be used right from primary school years, allowing them to face such complex, real-life situations from early childhood period. A qualitative study was conducted in a university foundation primary school in the city center of a big province in 2013-2014 academic years. The participants were 4th grade students in a primary school. After a four-week preliminary study applied to a fourth-grade classroom, three students included in the focus group were selected using criterion sampling technique. A focus group of three students was videotaped as they worked on the Crime Problem. The conversation of the group was transcribed, examined with students’ written work and then analyzed through the lens of Blum and Ferri’s modeling processing cycle. The results showed that primary fourth-grade students can successfully work with model eliciting problem while they encounter some difficulties in the modeling processes. In particular, they developed new ideas based on different assumptions, identified the patterns among variables and established a variety of models. On the other hand, they had trouble focusing on problems and occasionally had breaks in the process.

Keywords: primary school, modeling, mathematical modeling, crime problem

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19287 Machine Learning for Feature Selection and Classification of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

Authors: H. Zidoum, A. AlShareedah, S. Al Sawafi, A. Al-Ansari, B. Al Lawati

Abstract:

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is an autoimmune disease with genetic and environmental components. SLE is characterized by a wide variability of clinical manifestations and a course frequently subject to unpredictable flares. Despite recent progress in classification tools, the early diagnosis of SLE is still an unmet need for many patients. This study proposes an interpretable disease classification model that combines the high and efficient predictive performance of CatBoost and the model-agnostic interpretation tools of Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). The CatBoost model was trained on a local cohort of 219 Omani patients with SLE as well as other control diseases. Furthermore, the SHAP library was used to generate individual explanations of the model's decisions as well as rank clinical features by contribution. Overall, we achieved an AUC score of 0.945, F1-score of 0.92 and identified four clinical features (alopecia, renal disorders, cutaneous lupus, and hemolytic anemia) along with the patient's age that was shown to have the greatest contribution on the prediction.

Keywords: feature selection, classification, systemic lupus erythematosus, model interpretation, SHAP, Catboost

Procedia PDF Downloads 84
19286 Preparation of Corn Flour Based Extruded Product and Evaluate Its Physical Characteristics

Authors: C. S. Saini

Abstract:

The composite flour blend consisting of corn, pearl millet, black gram and wheat bran in the ratio of 80:5:10:5 was taken to prepare the extruded product and their effect on physical properties of extrudate was studied. The extrusion process was conducted in laboratory by using twin screw extruder. The physical characteristics evaluated include lateral expansion, bulk density, water absorption index, water solubility index, rehydration ratio and moisture retention. The Central Composite Rotatable Design (CCRD) was used to decide the level of processing variables i.e. feed moisture content (%), screw speed (rpm), and barrel temperature (oC) for the experiment. The data obtained after extrusion process were analyzed by using response surface methodology. A second order polynomial model for the dependent variables was established to fit the experimental data. The numerical optimization studies resulted in 127°C of barrel temperature, 246 rpm of screw speed, and 14.5% of feed moisture as optimum variables to produce acceptable extruded product. The responses predicted by the software for the optimum process condition resulted in lateral expansion 126 %, bulk density 0.28 g/cm3, water absorption index 4.10 g/g, water solubility index 39.90 %, rehydration ratio 544 % and moisture retention 11.90 % with 75 % desirability.

Keywords: black gram, corn flour, extrusion, physical characteristics

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19285 Stochastic Modeling for Parameters of Modified Car-Following Model in Area-Based Traffic Flow

Authors: N. C. Sarkar, A. Bhaskar, Z. Zheng

Abstract:

The driving behavior in area-based (i.e., non-lane based) traffic is induced by the presence of other individuals in the choice space from the driver’s visual perception area. The driving behavior of a subject vehicle is constrained by the potential leaders and leaders are frequently changed over time. This paper is to determine a stochastic model for a parameter of modified intelligent driver model (MIDM) in area-based traffic (as in developing countries). The parametric and non-parametric distributions are presented to fit the parameters of MIDM. The goodness of fit for each parameter is measured in two different ways such as graphically and statistically. The quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plot is used for a graphical representation of a theoretical distribution to model a parameter and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test is used for a statistical measure of fitness for a parameter with a theoretical distribution. The distributions are performed on a set of estimated parameters of MIDM. The parameters are estimated on the real vehicle trajectory data from India. The fitness of each parameter with a stochastic model is well represented. The results support the applicability of the proposed modeling for parameters of MIDM in area-based traffic flow simulation.

Keywords: area-based traffic, car-following model, micro-simulation, stochastic modeling

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19284 A Bathtub Curve from Nonparametric Model

Authors: Eduardo C. Guardia, Jose W. M. Lima, Afonso H. M. Santos

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This paper presents a nonparametric method to obtain the hazard rate “Bathtub curve” for power system components. The model is a mixture of the three known phases of a component life, the decreasing failure rate (DFR), the constant failure rate (CFR) and the increasing failure rate (IFR) represented by three parametric Weibull models. The parameters are obtained from a simultaneous fitting process of the model to the Kernel nonparametric hazard rate curve. From the Weibull parameters and failure rate curves the useful lifetime and the characteristic lifetime were defined. To demonstrate the model the historic time-to-failure of distribution transformers were used as an example. The resulted “Bathtub curve” shows the failure rate for the equipment lifetime which can be applied in economic and replacement decision models.

Keywords: bathtub curve, failure analysis, lifetime estimation, parameter estimation, Weibull distribution

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19283 Document Analysis for Modelling iTV Advertising towards Impulse Purchase

Authors: Azizah Che Omar

Abstract:

The study provides a systematic literature review which analyzed the literature for the purpose of looking for concepts, theories, approaches and guidelines in order to propose a conceptual design model of interactive television advertising toward impulse purchase (iTVAdIP). An extensive review of literature was purposely carried out to understand the concepts of interactive television (iTV). Therefore, some elements; iTV guidelines, advertising theories, persuasive approaches, and the impulse purchase elements were analyzed to reach the scope of this work. The extensive review was also a necessity to achieve the objective of this study, which was to determine the concept of iTVAdIP design model. Through systematic review analysis, this study discovered that all the previous models did not emphasize the conceptual design model of interactive television advertising. As a result, the finding showed that the concept of the proposed model should contain the iTV guidelines, advertising theory, persuasive approach and impulse purchase elements. In addition, a summary diagram for the development of the proposed model is depicted to provide clearer understanding towards the concepts of conceptual design model of iTVAdIP.

Keywords: impulse purchase, interactive television advertising, human computer interaction, advertising theories

Procedia PDF Downloads 371
19282 A Predictive Model for Turbulence Evolution and Mixing Using Machine Learning

Authors: Yuhang Wang, Jorg Schluter, Sergiy Shelyag

Abstract:

The high cost associated with high-resolution computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is one of the main challenges that inhibit the design, development, and optimisation of new combustion systems adapted for renewable fuels. In this study, we propose a physics-guided CNN-based model to predict turbulence evolution and mixing without requiring a traditional CFD solver. The model architecture is built upon U-Net and the inception module, while a physics-guided loss function is designed by introducing two additional physical constraints to allow for the conservation of both mass and pressure over the entire predicted flow fields. Then, the model is trained on the Large Eddy Simulation (LES) results of a natural turbulent mixing layer with two different Reynolds number cases (Re = 3000 and 30000). As a result, the model prediction shows an excellent agreement with the corresponding CFD solutions in terms of both spatial distributions and temporal evolution of turbulent mixing. Such promising model prediction performance opens up the possibilities of doing accurate high-resolution manifold-based combustion simulations at a low computational cost for accelerating the iterative design process of new combustion systems.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, turbulence, machine learning, combustion modelling

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19281 Efficacy of Technology for Successful Learning Experience; Technology Supported Model for Distance Learning: Case Study of Botho University, Botswana

Authors: Ivy Rose Mathew

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to outline the efficacy of technology and the opportunities it can bring to implement a successful delivery model in Distance Learning. Distance Learning has proliferated over the past few years across the world. Some of the current challenges faced by current students of distance education include lack of motivation, a sense of isolation and a need for greater and improved communication. Hence the author proposes a creative technology supported model for distance learning exactly mirrored on the traditional face to face learning that can be adopted by distance learning providers. This model suggests the usage of a range of technologies and social networking facilities, with the aim of creating a more engaging and sustaining learning environment to help overcome the isolation often noted by distance learners. While discussing the possibilities, the author also highlights the complexity and practical challenges of implementing such a model. Design/methodology/approach: Theoretical issues from previous research related to successful models for distance learning providers will be considered. And also the analysis of a case study from one of the largest private tertiary institution in Botswana, Botho University will be included. This case study illustrates important aspects of the distance learning delivery model and provides insights on how curriculum development is planned, quality assurance is done, and learner support is assured for successful distance learning experience. Research limitations/implications: While some of the aspects of this study may not be applicable to other contexts, a number of new providers of distance learning can adapt the key principles of this delivery model.

Keywords: distance learning, efficacy, learning experience, technology supported model

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19280 On the Use of Analytical Performance Models to Design a High-Performance Active Queue Management Scheme

Authors: Shahram Jamali, Samira Hamed

Abstract:

One of the open issues in Random Early Detection (RED) algorithm is how to set its parameters to reach high performance for the dynamic conditions of the network. Although original RED uses fixed values for its parameters, this paper follows a model-based approach to upgrade performance of the RED algorithm. It models the routers queue behavior by using the Markov model and uses this model to predict future conditions of the queue. This prediction helps the proposed algorithm to make some tunings over RED's parameters and provide efficiency and better performance. Widespread packet level simulations confirm that the proposed algorithm, called Markov-RED, outperforms RED and FARED in terms of queue stability, bottleneck utilization and dropped packets count.

Keywords: active queue management, RED, Markov model, random early detection algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 539
19279 Singularization: A Technique for Protecting Neural Networks

Authors: Robert Poenaru, Mihail Pleşa

Abstract:

In this work, a solution that addresses the protection of pre-trained neural networks is developed: Singularization. This method involves applying permutations to the weight matrices of a pre-trained model, introducing a form of structured noise that obscures the original model’s architecture. These permutations make it difficult for an attacker to reconstruct the original model, even if the permuted weights are obtained. Experimental benchmarks indicate that the application of singularization has a profound impact on model performance, often degrading it to the point where retraining from scratch becomes necessary to recover functionality, which is particularly effective for securing intellectual property in neural networks. Moreover, unlike other approaches, singularization is lightweight and computationally efficient, which makes it well suited for resource-constrained environments. Our experiments also demonstrate that this technique performs efficiently in various image classification tasks, highlighting its broad applicability and practicality in real-world scenarios.

Keywords: machine learning, ANE, CNN, security

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19278 Isolation and Characterization of Ant-Salmonella Lactic Acid Bacteria from Dairy Products

Authors: Najie Hassanzade, Mohammad Rabbani Khorasgani

Abstract:

Dairy products have been regarded as the natural source of lactic acid bacteria with potential characteristics of probiotics; therefore, a lot of research and practical works have been carried out about the isolation of lactic acid bacteria (LAB) from dairy products, especially traditional yogurt and related products. Interest in traditional dairy products continues in the area of isolation of new LAB that can complement or replace currently used starters and/or that can be candidates as beneficial microorganisms for prevention or treatment purposes. In this perspective, such products are potentially good candidates for isolating new strains of probiotics. On the other hand, some infectious diseases such as salmonellosis have expressed resistance against many antibiotics; therefore, many attempts have been performed to use an alternative approach to overcome antibiotic resistance. The current research focuses on the isolation of LAB from dairy products, especially traditional dairy products and screening of them for anti-Salmonella activities. Twenty-five samples, including 15 sheep milk samples, one camel milk sample and seven cow milk samples from different areas of Iran and 2 yogurt samples from Herat, Afghanistan are collected. 20 bacteria are isolated by culturing the samples on MRS agar specific medium; among them 4 Lactobacillus strains, including 3L. plantarum strains and one L.gasseri strain, are identified by analyzing the biochemical tests and PCR tests in which 27F and 1492R primers are used. Then, their effects against Salmonella typhimurium using the well-diffusion method are evaluated.

Keywords: lactic acid bacteria, probiotics, dairy products Salmonella

Procedia PDF Downloads 261
19277 The Effectiveness of Blended Learning in Pre-Registration Nurse Education: A Mixed Methods Systematic Review and Met Analysis

Authors: Albert Amagyei, Julia Carroll, Amanda R. Amorim Adegboye, Laura Strumidlo, Rosie Kneafsey

Abstract:

Introduction: Classroom-based learning has persisted as the mainstream model of pre-registration nurse education. This model is often rigid, teacher-centered, and unable to support active learning and the practical learning needs of nursing students. Health Education England (HEE), a public body of the Department of Health and Social Care, hypothesises that blended learning (BL) programmes may address health system and nursing profession challenges, such as nursing shortages and lack of digital expertise, by exploring opportunities for providing predominantly online, remote-access study which may increase nursing student recruitment, offering alternate pathways to nursing other than the traditional classroom route. This study will provide evidence for blended learning strategies adopted in nursing education as well as examine nursing student learning experiences concerning the challenges and opportunities related to using blended learning within nursing education. Objective: This review will explore the challenges and opportunities of BL within pre-registration nurse education from the student's perspective. Methods: The search was completed within five databases. Eligible studies were appraised independently by four reviewers. The JBI-convergent segregated approach for mixed methods review was used to assess and synthesize the data. The study’s protocol has been registered with the International Register of Systematic Reviews with registration number// PROSPERO (CRD42023423532). Results: Twenty-seven (27) studies (21 quantitative and 6 qualitative) were included in the review. The study confirmed that BL positively impacts nursing students' learning outcomes, as demonstrated by the findings of the meta-analysis and meta-synthesis. Conclusion: The review compared BL to traditional learning, simulation, laboratory, and online learning on nursing students’ learning and programme outcomes as well as learning behaviour and experience. The results show that BL could effectively improve nursing students’ knowledge, academic achievement, critical skills, and clinical performance as well as enhance learner satisfaction and programme retention. The review findings outline that students’ background characteristics, BL design, and format significantly impact the success of the BL nursing programme.

Keywords: nursing student, blended learning, pre-registration nurse education, online learning

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19276 Prediction of the Tunnel Fire Flame Length by Hybrid Model of Neural Network and Genetic Algorithms

Authors: Behzad Niknam, Kourosh Shahriar, Hassan Madani

Abstract:

This paper demonstrates the applicability of Hybrid Neural Networks that combine with back propagation networks (BPN) and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) for predicting the flame length of tunnel fire A hybrid neural network model has been developed to predict the flame length of tunnel fire based parameters such as Fire Heat Release rate, air velocity, tunnel width, height and cross section area. The network has been trained with experimental data obtained from experimental work. The hybrid neural network model learned the relationship for predicting the flame length in just 3000 training epochs. After successful learning, the model predicted the flame length.

Keywords: tunnel fire, flame length, ANN, genetic algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 643
19275 Optimizing Pavement Construction Procedures in the Southern Desert of Libya

Authors: Khlifa El Atrash, Gabriel Assaf

Abstract:

Libya uses a volumetric analysis in designing asphalt mixtures, which can also be upgraded in hot, arid weather. However, in order to be effective, it should include many important aspects which are materials, environment, and method of construction. However, the quality of some roads was below a satisfactory level. This paper examines the factors that contribute to low quality of road performance in Libya. To evaluate these factors, a questionnaire survey and a laboratory comparative study were performed for a few mixes under-represented of temperature and traffic load. In laboratory, rutting test conducted on two different asphalt mixture, these mixes included, an asphalt concrete mix using local aggregate and asphalt binder B(60/70) at the optimum Marshall asphalt content, another mixes designed using Superpave design procedure with the same materials and performance asphalt binder grade PG (70-10). In the survey, the questionnaire was distributed to 55 engineers and specialists in this field. The interview was conducted to a few others, and the factors that were leading to poor performance of asphalt roads were listed as; 1) Owner Experience and technical staff 2) Asphalt characteristics 3) Updating and development of Asphalt Mix Design methods 4) Lack of data collection by authorization Agency 5) Construction and compaction process 6) Mentoring and controlling mixing procedure. Considering and improving these factors will play an important role to improve the pavement performances, longer service life, and lower maintenance costs. This research summarized some recommendations for making asphalt mixtures used in hot, dry areas. Such asphalt mixtures should use asphalt binder which is less affected by pavement temperature change and traffic load. The properties of the mixture, such as durability, deformation, air voids, and performance, largely depend on the type of materials, environment, and mixing method. These properties, in turn, affect the pavement performance.

Keywords: volumetric analysis, pavement performances, hot climate, traffic load, pavement temperature, asphalt mixture, environment, design and construction

Procedia PDF Downloads 271
19274 A New Correlation Between SPT-N and SSPT-N values for Various Soil Types in Peninsular Malaysia

Authors: Abdull Halim

Abstract:

The Standard Penetration Test (SPT-N) is the most common in situ test for soil investigations. The Shearing Seismic Standard Penetration Test (SSPT-N), on the other hand, is a new method using shearing wave with propagation exponent equation between the shearing wave, Vs., and hardness, N values without any need for borehole data. Due to the fast and accurate results that can be obtained, the SSPT has found many applications such as in the field rectification buried pipe line, the acid tank settlement and foundation design analyses, and the quality control assessment. Many geotechnical regimes and properties have attempted to correlate both the SSPT and the SPT-N values. Various foundation design methods have been developed based on the outcomes of these tests. Hence, it is pertinent to correlate these tests so that either one of the test can be used in the absence of the other, especially for preliminary evaluation and design purposes. The primary purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between the SSPT-N and SPT-N values for different types of cohesive soil in Peninsular Malaysia. Data were collected from four different sites, and the correlations were established between the hardness N values, principal stress-strain Mohr circle curve, cohesion, friction angle and vertical effective stress. A positive exponent relationship was found between the shearing wave, sVs., and the hardness N values of the soil. In general, the SSPT-N value was slightly lower than the SPT-N value due to the upper limit boundary of the soil layer.

Keywords: InsituSoil determination; shearing wave; hardness; correlation, SSPT-N, SPT-N

Procedia PDF Downloads 184
19273 Biomechanical Performance of the Synovial Capsule of the Glenohumeral Joint with a BANKART Lesion through Finite Element Analysis

Authors: Duvert A. Puentes T., Javier A. Maldonado E., Ivan Quintero., Diego F. Villegas

Abstract:

Mechanical Computation is a great tool to study the performance of complex models. An example of it is the study of the human body structure. This paper took advantage of different types of software to make a 3D model of the glenohumeral joint and apply a finite element analysis. The main objective was to study the change in the biomechanical properties of the joint when it presents an injury. Specifically, a BANKART lesion, which consists in the detachment of the anteroinferior labrum from the glenoid. Stress and strain distribution of the soft tissues were the focus of this study. First, a 3D model was made of a joint without any pathology, as a control sample, using segmentation software for the bones with the support of medical imagery and a cadaveric model to represent the soft tissue. The joint was built to simulate a compression and external rotation test using CAD to prepare the model in the adequate position. When the healthy model was finished, it was submitted to a finite element analysis and the results were validated with experimental model data. With the validated model, it was sensitized to obtain the best mesh measurement. Finally, the geometry of the 3D model was changed to imitate a BANKART lesion. Then, the contact zone of the glenoid with the labrum was slightly separated simulating a tissue detachment. With this new geometry, the finite element analysis was applied again, and the results were compared with the control sample created initially. With the data gathered, this study can be used to improve understanding of the labrum tears. Nevertheless, it is important to remember that the computational analysis are approximations and the initial data was taken from an in vitro assay.

Keywords: biomechanics, computational model, finite elements, glenohumeral joint, bankart lesion, labrum

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19272 A Model for Reverse-Mentoring in Education

Authors: Sabine A. Zauchner-Studnicka

Abstract:

As the term indicates, reverse-mentoring flips the classical roles of mentoring: In school, students take over the role of mentors for adults, i.e. teachers or parents. Originally reverse-mentoring stems from US enterprises, which implemented this innovative method in order to benefit from the resources of skilled younger employees for the enhancement of IT competences of senior colleagues. However, reverse-mentoring in schools worldwide is rare. Based on empirical studies and theoretical approaches, in this article an implementation model for reverse-mentoring is developed in order to bring the significant potential reverse-mentoring has for education into practice.

Keywords: reverse-mentoring, innovation in education, implementation model, school education

Procedia PDF Downloads 248
19271 Steady State Modeling and Simulation of an Industrial Steam Boiler

Authors: Amina Lyria Deghal Cheridi, Abla Chaker, Ahcene Loubar

Abstract:

Relap5 system code is one among powerful tools, which is used in the area of design and safety evaluation. This work aims to simulate the behavior of a radiant steam boiler at the steady-state conditions using Relap5 code system. To perform this study, a detailed Relap5 model is built including all the parts of the steam boiler. The control and regulation systems are also considered. To reproduce the most important parameters and phenomena with an acceptable accuracy and fidelity, a strong qualification work is undertaken concerning the facility nodalization. It consists of making a comparison between the code results and the plant available data in steady-state operation mode. Therefore, the model qualification results at the steady-state are in good agreement with the steam boiler experimental data. The steam boiler Relap5 model has proved satisfactory; and the model was capable of predicting the main thermal-hydraulic steady-state conditions of the steam boiler.

Keywords: industrial steam boiler, model qualification, natural circulation, relap5/mod3.2, steady state simulation

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19270 Forecasting Electricity Spot Price with Generalized Long Memory Modeling: Wavelet and Neural Network

Authors: Souhir Ben Amor, Heni Boubaker, Lotfi Belkacem

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This aims of this paper is to forecast the electricity spot prices. First, we focus on modeling the conditional mean of the series so we adopt a generalized fractional -factor Gegenbauer process (k-factor GARMA). Secondly, the residual from the -factor GARMA model has used as a proxy for the conditional variance; these residuals were predicted using two different approaches. In the first approach, a local linear wavelet neural network model (LLWNN) has developed to predict the conditional variance using the Back Propagation learning algorithms. In the second approach, the Gegenbauer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process (G-GARCH) has adopted, and the parameters of the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model has estimated using the wavelet methodology based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) approach. The empirical results have shown that the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model outperform the hybrid k-factor GARMA-LLWNN model, and find it is more appropriate for forecasts.

Keywords: electricity price, k-factor GARMA, LLWNN, G-GARCH, forecasting

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19269 A Digital Twin Approach to Support Real-time Situational Awareness and Intelligent Cyber-physical Control in Energy Smart Buildings

Authors: Haowen Xu, Xiaobing Liu, Jin Dong, Jianming Lian

Abstract:

Emerging smart buildings often employ cyberinfrastructure, cyber-physical systems, and Internet of Things (IoT) technologies to increase the automation and responsiveness of building operations for better energy efficiency and lower carbon emission. These operations include the control of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) and lighting systems, which are often considered a major source of energy consumption in both commercial and residential buildings. Developing energy-saving control models for optimizing HVAC operations usually requires the collection of high-quality instrumental data from iterations of in-situ building experiments, which can be time-consuming and labor-intensive. This abstract describes a digital twin approach to automate building energy experiments for optimizing HVAC operations through the design and development of an adaptive web-based platform. The platform is created to enable (a) automated data acquisition from a variety of IoT-connected HVAC instruments, (b) real-time situational awareness through domain-based visualizations, (c) adaption of HVAC optimization algorithms based on experimental data, (d) sharing of experimental data and model predictive controls through web services, and (e) cyber-physical control of individual instruments in the HVAC system using outputs from different optimization algorithms. Through the digital twin approach, we aim to replicate a real-world building and its HVAC systems in an online computing environment to automate the development of building-specific model predictive controls and collaborative experiments in buildings located in different climate zones in the United States. We present two case studies to demonstrate our platform’s capability for real-time situational awareness and cyber-physical control of the HVAC in the flexible research platforms within the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) main campus. Our platform is developed using adaptive and flexible architecture design, rendering the platform generalizable and extendable to support HVAC optimization experiments in different types of buildings across the nation.

Keywords: energy-saving buildings, digital twins, HVAC, cyber-physical system, BIM

Procedia PDF Downloads 111
19268 A Performance Model for Designing Network in Reverse Logistic

Authors: S. Dhib, S. A. Addouche, T. Loukil, A. Elmhamedi

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In this paper, a reverse supply chain network is investigated for a decision making. This decision is surrounded by complex flows of returned products, due to the increasing quantity, the type of returned products and the variety of recovery option products (reuse, recycling, and refurbishment). The most important problem in the reverse logistic network (RLN) is to orient returned products to the suitable type of recovery option. However, returned products orientations from collect sources to the recovery disposition have not well considered in performance model. In this study, we propose a performance model for designing a network configuration on reverse logistics. Conceptual and analytical models are developed with taking into account operational, economic and environmental factors on designing network.

Keywords: reverse logistics, network design, performance model, open loop configuration

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19267 Developing a Mathematical Model for Trade-Off Analysis of New Green Products

Authors: M. R. Gholizadeh, N. Bhuiyan, M. Salari

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In the near future, companies will be increasingly forced to shift their activities along a new road in order to decrease the harmful effects of their design, production and after-life on our environment. Products must meet environmental standards to not only prevent penalties but to consider the sustainability for future generations. However, the most important factor that companies will face is selecting a reasonable strategy to maximize their profit. Thus, companies need to have precise forecast from their profit after design stage through Trade-off analysis. This paper is an attempt to introduce a mathematical model that considers effective factors that impact the total profit when products are designed for resource and energy efficiency or recyclability. The modification is according to different strategies based on a Cost-Volume-Profit model. Here, the cost structure consists of Recycling cost, Development cost, Ramp-up cost, Production cost, and Pollution cost. Also, the model shows the effect of implementation of design for recyclable on revenue structure through revenue of used parts and revenue of recycled materials. A numerical example is used to evaluate the proposed model. Results show that fulfillment of Green Product Development not only can reduce the environmental impact of products but also it will increase profit of company in long term.

Keywords: green product, design for environment, C-V-P model, trade-off analysis

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19266 Model Free Terminal Sliding Mode with Gravity Compensation: Application to an Exoskeleton-Upper Limb System

Authors: Sana Bembli, Nahla Khraief Haddad, Safya Belghith

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This paper deals with a robust model free terminal sliding mode with gravity compensation approach used to control an exoskeleton-upper limb system. The considered system is a 2-DoF robot in interaction with an upper limb used for rehabilitation. The aim of this paper is to control the flexion/extension movement of the shoulder and the elbow joints in presence of matched disturbances. In the first part, we present the exoskeleton-upper limb system modeling. Then, we controlled the considered system by the model free terminal sliding mode with gravity compensation. A stability study is realized. To prove the controller performance, a robustness analysis was needed. Simulation results are provided to confirm the robustness of the gravity compensation combined with to the Model free terminal sliding mode in presence of uncertainties.

Keywords: exoskeleton- upper limb system, model free terminal sliding mode, gravity compensation, robustness analysis

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19265 Application of the Micropolar Beam Theory for the Construction of the Discrete-Continual Model of Carbon Nanotubes

Authors: Samvel H. Sargsyan

Abstract:

Together with the study of electron-optical properties of nanostructures and proceeding from experiment-based data, the study of the mechanical properties of nanostructures has become quite actual. For the study of the mechanical properties of fullerene, carbon nanotubes, graphene and other nanostructures one of the crucial issues is the construction of their adequate mathematical models. Among all mathematical models of graphene or carbon nano-tubes, this so-called discrete-continuous model is specifically important. It substitutes the interactions between atoms by elastic beams or springs. The present paper demonstrates the construction of the discrete-continual beam model for carbon nanotubes or graphene, where the micropolar beam model based on the theory of moment elasticity is accepted. With the account of the energy balance principle, the elastic moment constants for the beam model, expressed by the physical and geometrical parameters of carbon nanotube or graphene, are determined. By switching from discrete-continual beam model to the continual, the models of micropolar elastic cylindrical shell and micropolar elastic plate are confirmed as continual models for carbon nanotube and graphene respectively.

Keywords: carbon nanotube, discrete-continual, elastic, graphene, micropolar, plate, shell

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19264 Multivariate Rainfall Disaggregation Using MuDRain Model: Malaysia Experience

Authors: Ibrahim Suliman Hanaish

Abstract:

Disaggregation daily rainfall using stochastic models formulated based on multivariate approach (MuDRain) is discussed in this paper. Seven rain gauge stations are considered in this study for different distances from the referred station starting from 4 km to 160 km in Peninsular Malaysia. The hourly rainfall data used are covered the period from 1973 to 2008 and July and November months are considered as an example of dry and wet periods. The cross-correlation among the rain gauges is considered for the available hourly rainfall information at the neighboring stations or not. This paper discussed the applicability of the MuDRain model for disaggregation daily rainfall to hourly rainfall for both sources of cross-correlation. The goodness of fit of the model was based on the reproduction of fitting statistics like the means, variances, coefficients of skewness, lag zero cross-correlation of coefficients and the lag one auto correlation of coefficients. It is found the correlation coefficients based on extracted correlations that was based on daily are slightly higher than correlations based on available hourly rainfall especially for neighboring stations not more than 28 km. The results showed also the MuDRain model did not reproduce statistics very well. In addition, a bad reproduction of the actual hyetographs comparing to the synthetic hourly rainfall data. Mean while, it is showed a good fit between the distribution function of the historical and synthetic hourly rainfall. These discrepancies are unavoidable because of the lowest cross correlation of hourly rainfall. The overall performance indicated that the MuDRain model would not be appropriate choice for disaggregation daily rainfall.

Keywords: rainfall disaggregation, multivariate disaggregation rainfall model, correlation, stochastic model

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19263 Economic Development Process: A Compartmental Analysis of a Model with Two Delays

Authors: Amadou Banda Ndione, Charles Awono Onana

Abstract:

In this paper the compartmental approach is applied to build a macroeconomic model characterized by countries. We consider a total of N countries that are subdivided into three compartments according to their economic status: D(t) denotes the compartment of developing countries at time t, E(t) stands for the compartment of emerging countries at time t while A(t) represents advanced countries at time t. The model describes the process of economic development and includes the notion of openness through collaborations between countries. Two delays appear in this model to describe the average time necessary for collaborations between countries to become efficient for their development process. Our model represents the different stages of development. It further gives the conditions under which a country can change its economic status and demonstrates the short-term positive effect of openness on economic growth. In addition, we investigate bifurcation by considering the delay as a bifurcation parameter and examine the onset and termination of Hopf bifurcations from a positive equilibrium. Numerical simulations are provided in order to illustrate the theoretical part and to support discussion.

Keywords: compartmental systems, delayed dynamical system, economic development, fiscal policy, hopf bifurcation

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19262 Ethical Consumers, The Myth or the Reality?: The Effects of Ethics in CSR on Corporate Authenticity and Pro-Firm Behaviours

Authors: K. Shim, J. N. Kim

Abstract:

This study investigates how consumers’ evaluations of a multinational corporation’s corporate social responsibility program connected to the perceived corporate authenticity and consumers’ pro-firm behavioral intention. With special attention to the two different types of CSR motives, business-oriented CSR motive and society-oriented motive, the current study empirically tests a theoretical model of a mediating role of corporate authenticity between perception of CSR motives and the consumers’ subsequent pro-firm behaviours. Results indicate significant mediation effects of corporate authenticity between perception of altruistic and societal CSR motives and consumers’ pro-firm behaviours. Unlike previous notions of the negative influence of self-interested motives on corporate authenticity, perceived strategic and business-oriented motives in CSR does not negatively affect the evalution of corporate authenticity when stakeholders have utilitarian ethical perspectives. Unlike the Korean participants, US participants are not willing to conduct pro-firm behaviors when they perceive strategic and business-oriented CSR motives. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Keywords: corporate authenticity, corporate social responsibility, CSR motives, strategic CSR, utilitarian ethics, kantian ethics

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19261 Comparing Groundwater Fluoride Level with WHO Guidelines and Classifying At-Risk Age Groups; Based on Health Risk Assessment

Authors: Samaneh Abolli, Kamyar Yaghmaeian, Ali Arab Aradani, Mahmood Alimohammadi

Abstract:

The main route of fluoride uptake is drinking water. Fluoride absorption in the acceptable range (0.5-1.5 mg L-¹) is suitable for the body, but it's too much consumption can have irreversible health effects. To compare fluoride concentration with the WHO guidelines, 112 water samples were taken from groundwater aquifers in 22 villages of Garmsar County, the central part of Iran, during 2018 to 2019.Fluoride concentration was measured by the SPANDS method, and its non-carcinogenic impacts were calculated using EDI and HQ. The statistical population was divided into four categories of infant, children, teenagers, and adults. Linear regression and Spearman rank correlation coefficient tests were used to investigate the relationships between the well's depth and fluoride concentration in the water samples. The annual mean concentrations of fluoride in 2018 and2019 were 0.75 and 0.64 mg -¹ and, the fluoride mean concentration in the samples classifying the cold and hot seasons of the studied years was 0.709 and 0.689 mg L-¹, respectively. The amount of fluoride in 27% of the samples in both years was less than the acceptable minimum (0.5 mg L-¹). Also, 11% of the samples in2018 (6 samples) had fluoride levels higher than 1.5 mg L-¹. The HQ showed that the children were vulnerable; teenagers and adults were in the next ranks, respectively. Statistical tests showed a reverse and significant correlation (R2 = 0.02, < 0.0001) between well depth and fluoride content. The border between the usefulness/harmfulness of fluoride is very narrow and requires extensive studies.

Keywords: fluoride, groundwater, health risk assessment, hazard quotient, Garmsar

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19260 In vivo Evaluation of LAB Probiotic Potential with the Zebrafish Animal Model

Authors: Iñaki Iturria, Pasquale Russo, Montserrat Nacher-Vázquez, Giuseppe Spano, Paloma López, Miguel Angel Pardo

Abstract:

Introduction: It is known that some Lactic Acid Bacteria (LAB) present an interesting probiotic effect. Probiotic bacteria stimulate host resistance to microbial pathogens and thereby aid in immune response, and modulate the host's immune responses to antigens with a potential to down-regulate hypersensitivity reactions. Therefore, probiotic therapy is valuable against intestinal infections and may be beneficial in the treatment of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD). Several in vitro tests are available to evaluate the probiotic potential of a LAB strain. However, an in vivo model is required to understand the interaction between the host immune system and the bacteria. During the last few years, zebrafish (Danio rerio) has gained interest as a promising vertebrate model in this field. This organism has been extensively used to study the interaction between the host and the microbiota, as well as the host immune response under several microbial infections. In this work, we report on the use of the zebrafish model to investigate in vivo the colonizing ability and the immunomodulatory effect of probiotic LAB. Methods: Lactobacillus strains belonging to different LAB species were fluorescently tagged and used to colonize germ-free zebrafish larvae gastrointestinal tract (GIT). Some of the strains had a well-documented probiotic effect (L. acidophilus LA5); while others presented an exopolysaccharide (EPS) producing phenotype, thus allowing evaluating the influence of EPS in the colonization and immunomodulatory effect. Bacteria colonization was monitored for 72 h by direct observation in real time using fluorescent microscopy. CFU count per larva was also evaluated at different times. The immunomodulatory effect was assessed analysing the differential expression of several innate immune system genes (MyD88, NF-κB, Tlr4, Il1β and Il10) by qRT- PCR. The anti-inflammatory effect was evaluated using a chemical enterocolitis zebrafish model. The protective effect against a pathogen was also studied. To that end, a challenge test was developed using a fluorescently tagged pathogen (Vibrio anguillarum-GFP+). The progression of the infection was monitored up to 3 days using a fluorescent stereomicroscope. Mortality rates and CFU counts were also registered. Results and conclusions: Larvae exposed to EPS-producing bacteria showed a higher fluorescence and CFU count than those colonized with no-EPS phenotype LAB. In the same way, qRT-PCR results revealed an immunomodulatory effect on the host after the administration of the strains with probiotic activity. A downregulation of proinflammatory cytoquines as well as other cellular mediators of inflammation was observed. The anti-inflammatory effect was found to be particularly marked following exposure to LA% strain, as well as EPS producing strains. Furthermore, the challenge test revealed a protective effect of probiotic administration. As a matter of fact, larvae fed with probiotics showed a decrease in the mortality rate ranging from 20 to 35%. Discussion: In this work, we developed a promising model, based on the use of gnotobiotic zebrafish coupled with a bacterial fluorescent tagging in order to evaluate the probiotic potential of different LAB strains. We have successfully used this system to monitor in real time the colonization and persistence of exogenous LAB within the gut of zebrafish larvae, to evaluate their immunomodulatory effect and for in vivo competition assays. This approach could bring further insights into the complex microbial-host interactions at intestinal level.

Keywords: gnotobiotic, immune system, lactic acid bacteria, probiotics, zebrafish

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