Search results for: finite time convergence
17795 A Time-Varying and Non-Stationary Convolution Spectral Mixture Kernel for Gaussian Process
Authors: Kai Chen, Shuguang Cui, Feng Yin
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Gaussian process (GP) with spectral mixture (SM) kernel demonstrates flexible non-parametric Bayesian learning ability in modeling unknown function. In this work a novel time-varying and non-stationary convolution spectral mixture (TN-CSM) kernel with a significant enhancing of interpretability by using process convolution is introduced. A way decomposing the SM component into an auto-convolution of base SM component and parameterizing it to be input dependent is outlined. Smoothly, performing a convolution between two base SM component yields a novel structure of non-stationary SM component with much better generalized expression and interpretation. The TN-CSM perfectly allows compatibility with the stationary SM kernel in terms of kernel form and spectral base ignored and confused by previous non-stationary kernels. On synthetic and real-world datatsets, experiments show the time-varying characteristics of hyper-parameters in TN-CSM and compare the learning performance of TN-CSM with popular and representative non-stationary GP.Keywords: Gaussian process, spectral mixture, non-stationary, convolution
Procedia PDF Downloads 19617794 Innovation and Analysis of Vibrating Fork Level Switch
Authors: Kuen-Ming Shu, Cheng-Yu Chen
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A vibrating-fork sensor can measure the level height of solids and liquids and operates according to the principle that vibrations created by piezoelectric ceramics are transmitted to the vibrating fork, which produces resonance. When the vibrating fork touches an object, its resonance frequency changes and produces a signal that returns to a controller for immediate adjustment, so as to effectively monitor raw material loading. The design of the vibrating fork in a vibrating-fork material sensor is crucial. In this paper, ANSYS finite element analysis software is used to perform modal analysis on the vibrations of the vibrating fork. In addition, to design and produce a superior vibrating fork, the dimensions and welding shape of the vibrating fork are compared in a simulation performed using the Taguchi method.Keywords: vibrating fork, piezoelectric ceramics, sound wave, ANSYS, Taguchi method, modal analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 24917793 Analysis of Silicon Controlled Rectifier-Based Electrostatic Discharge Protection Circuits with Electrical Characteristics for the 5V Power Clamp
Authors: Jun-Geol Park, Kyoung-Il Do, Min-Ju Kwon, Kyung-Hyun Park, Yong-Seo Koo
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This paper analyzed the SCR (Silicon Controlled Rectifier)-based ESD (Electrostatic Discharge) protection circuits with the turn-on time characteristics. The structures are the LVTSCR (Low Voltage Triggered SCR), the ZTSCR (Zener Triggered SCR) and the PTSCR (P-Substrate Triggered SCR). The three structures are for the 5V power clamp. In general, the structures with the low trigger voltage structure can have the fast turn-on characteristics than other structures. All the ESD protection circuits have the low trigger voltage by using the N+ bridge region of LVTSCR, by using the zener diode structure of ZTSCR, by increasing the trigger current of PTSCR. The simulation for the comparison with the turn-on time was conducted by the Synopsys TCAD simulator. As the simulation results, the LVTSCR has the turn-on time of 2.8 ns, ZTSCR of 2.1 ns and the PTSCR of 2.4 ns. The HBM simulation results, however, show that the PTSCR is the more robust structure of 430K in HBM 8kV standard than 450K of LVTSCR and 495K of ZTSCR. Therefore the PTSCR is the most effective ESD protection circuit for the 5V power clamp.Keywords: ESD, SCR, turn-on time, trigger voltage, power clamp
Procedia PDF Downloads 34817792 Mapping the Pain Trajectory of Breast Cancer Survivors: Results from a Retrospective Chart Review
Authors: Wilfred Elliam
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Background: Pain is a prevalent and debilitating symptom among breast cancer patients, impacting their quality of life and overall well-being. The experience of pain in this population is multifaceted, influenced by a combination of disease-related factors, treatment side effects, and individual characteristics. Despite advancements in cancer treatment and pain management, many breast cancer patients continue to suffer from chronic pain, which can persist long after the completion of treatment. Understanding the progression of pain in breast cancer patients over time and identifying its correlates is crucial for effective pain management and supportive care strategies. The purpose of this research is to understand the patterns and progression of pain experienced by breast cancer survivors over time. Methods: Data were collected from breast cancer patients at Hartford Hospital at four time points: baseline, 3, 6 and 12 weeks. Key variables measured include pain, body mass index (BMI), fatigue, musculoskeletal pain, sleep disturbance, and demographic variables (age, employment status, cancer stage, and ethnicity). Binomial generalized linear mixed models were used to examine changes in pain and symptoms over time. Results: A total of 100 breast cancer patients aged 18 years old were included in the analysis. We found that the effect of time on pain (p = 0.024), musculoskeletal pain (p= <0.001), fatigue (p= <0.001), and sleep disturbance (p-value = 0.013) were statistically significant with pain progression in breast cancer patients. Patients using aromatase inhibitors have worse fatigue (<0.05) and musculoskeletal pain (<0.001) compared to patients with Tamoxifen. Patients who are obese (<0.001) and overweight (<0.001) are more likely to report pain compared to patients with normal weight. Conclusion: This study revealed the complex interplay between various factors such as time, pain, sleep disturbance in breast cancer patient. Specifically, pain, musculoskeletal pain, sleep disturbance, fatigue exhibited significant changes across the measured time points, indicating a dynamic pain progression in these patients. The findings provide a foundation for future research and targeted interventions aimed at improving pain in breast cancer patient outcomes.Keywords: breast cancer, chronic pain, pain management, quality of life
Procedia PDF Downloads 3117791 Dynamic Response and Damage Modeling of Glass Fiber Reinforced Epoxy Composite Pipes: Numerical Investigation
Authors: Ammar Maziz, Mostapha Tarfaoui, Said Rechak
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The high mechanical performance of composite pipes can be adversely affected by their low resistance to impact loads. Loads in dynamic origin are dangerous and cause consequences on the operation of pipes because the damage is often not detected and can affect the structural integrity of composite pipes. In this work, an advanced 3-D finite element (FE) model, based on the use of intralaminar damage models was developed and used to predict damage under low-velocity impact. The performance of the numerical model is validated with the confrontation with the results of experimental tests. The results show that at low impact energy, the damage happens mainly by matrix cracking and delamination. The model capabilities to simulate the low-velocity impact events on the full-scale composite structures were proved.Keywords: composite materials, low velocity impact, FEA, dynamic behavior, progressive damage modeling
Procedia PDF Downloads 17217790 Simplified Modelling of Visco-Elastic Fluids for Use in Recoil Damping Systems
Authors: Prasad Pokkunuri
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Visco-elastic materials combine the stress response properties of both solids and fluids and have found use in a variety of damping applications – both vibrational and acoustic. Defense and automotive applications, in particular, are subject to high impact and shock loading – for example: aircraft landing gear, firearms, and shock absorbers. Field responsive fluids – a class of smart materials – are the preferred choice of energy absorbents because of their controllability. These fluids’ stress response can be controlled by the application of a magnetic or electric field, in a closed loop. Their rheological properties – elasticity, plasticity, and viscosity – can be varied all the way from that of a liquid such as water to a hard solid. This work presents a simplified model to study the impulse response behavior of such fluids for use in recoil damping systems. The well-known Burger’s equation, in conjunction with various visco-elastic constitutive models, is used to represent fluid behavior. The Kelvin-Voigt, Upper Convected Maxwell (UCM), and Oldroyd-B constitutive models are implemented in this study. Using these models in a one-dimensional framework eliminates additional complexities due to geometry, pressure, body forces, and other source terms. Using a finite difference formulation to numerically solve the governing equation(s), the response to an initial impulse is studied. The disturbance is confined within the problem domain with no-inflow, no-outflow boundary conditions, and its decay characteristics studied. Visco-elastic fluids typically involve a time-dependent stress relaxation which gives rise to interesting behavior when subjected to an impulsive load. For particular values of viscous damping and elastic modulus, the fluid settles into a stable oscillatory state, absorbing and releasing energy without much decay. The simplified formulation enables a comprehensive study of different modes of system response, by varying relevant parameters. Using the insights gained from this study, extension to a more detailed multi-dimensional model is considered.Keywords: Burgers Equation, Impulse Response, Recoil Damping Systems, Visco-elastic Fluids
Procedia PDF Downloads 29217789 Solving Directional Overcurrent Relay Coordination Problem Using Artificial Bees Colony
Authors: M. H. Hussain, I. Musirin, A. F. Abidin, S. R. A. Rahim
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This paper presents the implementation of Artificial Bees Colony (ABC) algorithm in solving Directional OverCurrent Relays (DOCRs) coordination problem for near-end faults occurring in fixed network topology. The coordination optimization of DOCRs is formulated as linear programming (LP) problem. The objective function is introduced to minimize the operating time of the associated relay which depends on the time multiplier setting. The proposed technique is to taken as a technique for comparison purpose in order to highlight its superiority. The proposed algorithms have been tested successfully on 8 bus test system. The simulation results demonstrated that the ABC algorithm which has been proved to have good search ability is capable in dealing with constraint optimization problems.Keywords: artificial bees colony, directional overcurrent relay coordination problem, relay settings, time multiplier setting
Procedia PDF Downloads 33017788 Increase Productivity by Using Work Measurement Technique
Authors: Mohammed Al Awadh
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In order for businesses to take advantage of the opportunities for expanded production and trade that have arisen as a result of globalization and increased levels of competition, productivity growth is required. The number of available sources is decreasing with each passing day, which results in an ever-increasing demand. In response to this, there will be an increased demand placed on firms to improve the efficiency with which they utilise their resources. As a scientific method, work and time research techniques have been employed in all manufacturing and service industries to raise the efficiency of use of the factors of production. These approaches focus on work and time. The goal of this research is to improve the productivity of a manufacturing industry's production system by looking at ways to measure work. The work cycles were broken down into more manageable and quantifiable components. On the observation sheet, these aspects were noted down. The operation has been properly analysed in order to identify value-added and non-value-added components, and observations have been recorded for each of the different trails.Keywords: time study, work measurement, work study, efficiency
Procedia PDF Downloads 6917787 Design and Analysis of an Electro Thermally Symmetrical Actuated Microgripper
Authors: Sh. Foroughi, V. Karamzadeh, M. Packirisamy
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This paper presents design and analysis of an electrothermally symmetrical actuated microgripper applicable for performing micro assembly or biological cell manipulation. Integration of micro-optics with microdevice leads to achieve extremely precise control over the operation of the device. Geometry, material, actuation, control, accuracy in measurement and temperature distribution are important factors which have to be taken into account for designing the efficient microgripper device. In this work, analyses of four different geometries are performed by means of COMSOL Multiphysics 5.2 with implementing Finite Element Methods. Then, temperature distribution along the fingertip, displacement of gripper site as well as optical efficiency vs. displacement and electrical potential are illustrated. Results show in addition to the industrial application of this device, the usage of that as a cell manipulator is possible.Keywords: electro thermal actuator, MEMS, microgripper, MOEMS
Procedia PDF Downloads 16517786 Magnetohydrodynamic Flow of Viscoelastic Nanofluid and Heat Transfer over a Stretching Surface with Non-Uniform Heat Source/Sink and Non-Linear Radiation
Authors: Md. S. Ansari, S. S. Motsa
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In this paper, an analysis has been made on the flow of non-Newtonian viscoelastic nanofluid over a linearly stretching sheet under the influence of uniform magnetic field. Heat transfer characteristics is analyzed taking into the effect of nonlinear radiation and non-uniform heat source/sink. Transport equations contain the simultaneous effects of Brownian motion and thermophoretic diffusion of nanoparticles. The relevant partial differential equations are non-dimensionalized and transformed into ordinary differential equations by using appropriate similarity transformations. The transformed, highly nonlinear, ordinary differential equations are solved by spectral local linearisation method. The numerical convergence, error and stability analysis of iteration schemes are presented. The effects of different controlling parameters, namely, radiation, space and temperature-dependent heat source/sink, Brownian motion, thermophoresis, viscoelastic, Lewis number and the magnetic force parameter on the flow field, heat transfer characteristics and nanoparticles concentration are examined. The present investigation has many industrial and engineering applications in the fields of coatings and suspensions, cooling of metallic plates, oils and grease, paper production, coal water or coal–oil slurries, heat exchangers’ technology, and materials’ processing and exploiting.Keywords: magnetic field, nonlinear radiation, non-uniform heat source/sink, similar solution, spectral local linearisation method, Rosseland diffusion approximation
Procedia PDF Downloads 37217785 Two-Stage Approach for Solving the Multi-Objective Optimization Problem on Combinatorial Configurations
Authors: Liudmyla Koliechkina, Olena Dvirna
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The statement of the multi-objective optimization problem on combinatorial configurations is formulated, and the approach to its solution is proposed. The problem is of interest as a combinatorial optimization one with many criteria, which is a model of many applied tasks. The approach to solving the multi-objective optimization problem on combinatorial configurations consists of two stages; the first is the reduction of the multi-objective problem to the single criterion based on existing multi-objective optimization methods, the second stage solves the directly replaced single criterion combinatorial optimization problem by the horizontal combinatorial method. This approach provides the optimal solution to the multi-objective optimization problem on combinatorial configurations, taking into account additional restrictions for a finite number of steps.Keywords: discrete set, linear combinatorial optimization, multi-objective optimization, Pareto solutions, partial permutation set, structural graph
Procedia PDF Downloads 16717784 Social Value of Travel Time Savings in Sub-Saharan Africa
Authors: Richard Sogah
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The significance of transport infrastructure investments for economic growth and development has been central to the World Bank’s strategy for poverty reduction. Among the conventional surface transport infrastructures, road infrastructure is significant in facilitating the movement of human capital goods and services. When transport projects (i.e., roads, super-highways) are implemented, they come along with some negative social values (costs), such as increased noise and air pollution for local residents living near these facilities, displaced individuals, etc. However, these projects also facilitate better utilization of existing capital stock and generate other observable benefits that can be easily quantified. For example, the improvement or construction of roads creates employment, stimulates revenue generation (toll), reduces vehicle operating costs and accidents, increases accessibility, trade expansion, safety improvement, etc. Aside from these benefits, travel time savings (TTSs) which are the major economic benefits of urban and inter-urban transport projects and therefore integral in the economic assessment of transport projects, are often overlooked and omitted when estimating the benefits of transport projects, especially in developing countries. The absence of current and reliable domestic travel data and the inability of replicated models from the developed world to capture the actual value of travel time savings due to the large unemployment, underemployment, and other labor-induced distortions has contributed to the failure to assign value to travel time savings when estimating the benefits of transport schemes in developing countries. This omission of the value of travel time savings from the benefits of transport projects in developing countries poses problems for investors and stakeholders to either accept or dismiss projects based on schemes that favor reduced vehicular operating costs and other parameters rather than those that ease congestion, increase average speed, facilitate walking and handloading, and thus save travel time. Given the complex reality in the estimation of the value of travel time savings and the presence of widespread informal labour activities in Sub-Saharan Africa, we construct a “nationally ranked distribution of time values” and estimate the value of travel time savings based on the area beneath the distribution. Compared with other approaches, our method captures both formal sector workers and individuals/people who work outside the formal sector and hence changes in their time allocation occur in the informal economy and household production activities. The dataset for the estimations is sourced from the World Bank, the International Labour Organization, etc.Keywords: road infrastructure, transport projects, travel time savings, congestion, Sub-Sahara Africa
Procedia PDF Downloads 11017783 Prandtl Number Influence Analysis on Droplet Migration in Natural Convection Flow Using the Level Set Method
Authors: Isadora Bugarin, Taygoara F. de Oliveira
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Multiphase flows have currently been placed as a key solution for technological advances in energy and thermal sciences. The comprehension of droplet motion and behavior on non-isothermal flows is, however, rather limited. The present work consists of an investigation of a 2D droplet migration on natural convection inside a square enclosure with differentially heated walls. The investigation in question concerns the effects on drop motion of imposing different combinations of Prandtl and Rayleigh numbers while defining the drop on distinct initial positions. The finite differences method was used to compute the Navier-Stokes and energy equations for a laminar flow, considering the Boussinesq approximation. Also, a high order level set method was applied to simulate the two-phase flow. A previous analysis developed by the authors had shown that for fixed values of Rayleigh and Prandtl, the variation of the droplet initial position at the beginning of the simulation delivered different patterns of motion, in which for Ra≥10⁴ the droplet presents two very specific behaviors: it can travel through a helical path towards the center or define cyclic circular paths resulting in closed paths when reaching the stationary regime. Now, when varying the Prandtl number for different Rayleigh regimes, it was observed that this particular parameter also affects the migration of the droplet, altering the motion patterns as its value is increased. On higher Prandtl values, the drop performs wider paths with larger amplitudes, traveling closer to the walls and taking longer time periods to finally reach the stationary regime. It is important to highlight that drastic drop behavior changes on the stationary regime were not yet observed, but the path traveled from the begging of the simulation until the stationary regime was significantly altered, resulting in distinct turning over frequencies. The flow’s unsteady Nusselt number is also registered for each case studied, enabling a discussion on the overall effects on heat transfer variations.Keywords: droplet migration, level set method, multiphase flow, natural convection in enclosure, Prandtl number
Procedia PDF Downloads 12217782 Multishape Task Scheduling Algorithms for Real Time Micro-Controller Based Application
Authors: Ankur Jain, W. Wilfred Godfrey
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Embedded systems are usually microcontroller-based systems that represent a class of reliable and dependable dedicated computer systems designed for specific purposes. Micro-controllers are used in most electronic devices in an endless variety of ways. Some micro-controller-based embedded systems are required to respond to external events in the shortest possible time and such systems are known as real-time embedded systems. So in multitasking system there is a need of task Scheduling,there are various scheduling algorithms like Fixed priority Scheduling(FPS),Earliest deadline first(EDF), Rate Monotonic(RM), Deadline Monotonic(DM),etc have been researched. In this Report various conventional algorithms have been reviewed and analyzed, these algorithms consists of single shape task, A new Multishape scheduling algorithms has been proposed and implemented and analyzed.Keywords: dm, edf, embedded systems, fixed priority, microcontroller, rtos, rm, scheduling algorithms
Procedia PDF Downloads 40417781 Local Ordinances with Sharia Nuances in Pluralism Society of Indonesia: Convergence or Divergence
Authors: Farida Prihatini
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As a largest Muslim country in the world with around 215 Muslim inhabitants, Indonesia interestingly is not an Islamic country. Yet, Indonesia is not a secular country as well. The country has committed to be a unity in diversity country where people from various socio-political background may be coexistent live in this archipelago country. However, many provinces and Muslim groups are disposed of special regulation for Muslim people, namely local ordinances with sharia nuances, applied specifically in provinces, cities or regions where Muslim inhabitants are the majority. For the last two decades, particularly since Indonesia reform movement of 1998, a lot of local ordinances (Peraturan Daerah) with Sharia nuance have been enacted and applied in several provinces, cities and regions in Indonesia. The local ordinances are mostly deal with restriction of alcohol, prohibition of prostitution, Al Qur'an literacy, obligation to wear Muslim attire and zakat or alms management. Some of local ordinances have been warmly welcomed by society, while other ordinances have created tension. Those who oppose the ordinances believe that such things regulated by the ordinances are in violation of human rights and democracy, part of privacy rights of the people and must not be regulated by the State or local government. This paper describes the dynamic of local Ordinances with sharia nuances in Indonesia, in this research is limited to three ordinances: on the restriction of alcohol, prohibition of prostitution and obligation to wear Muslim attire. The researcher employs a normative method by studying secondary data and local ordinances in selected areas in Indonesia. The findings of the paper are that local ordinances with sharia nuances are indeed part of the needs of society, yet, in their implementation must take the pluralism of Indonesia and the state basic foundation, which is Pancasila (five pillars) into account.Keywords: local, ordinances, sharia, rights
Procedia PDF Downloads 27617780 Rapid Identification and Diagnosis of the Pathogenic Leptospiras through Comparison among Culture, PCR and Real Time PCR Techniques from Samples of Human and Mouse Feces
Authors: S. Rostampour Yasouri, M. Ghane, M. Doudi
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Leptospirosis is one of the most significant infectious and zoonotic diseases along with global spreading. This disease is causative agent of economoic losses and human fatalities in various countries, including Northern provinces of Iran. The aim of this research is to identify and compare the rapid diagnostic techniques of pathogenic leptospiras, considering the multifacetedness of the disease from a clinical manifestation and premature death of patients. In the spring and summer of 2020-2022, 25 fecal samples were collected from suspected leptospirosis patients and 25 Fecal samples from mice residing in the rice fields and factories in Tonekabon city. Samples were prepared by centrifugation and passing through membrane filters. Culture technique was used in liquid and solid EMJH media during one month of incubation at 30°C. Then, the media were examined microscopically. DNA extraction was conducted by extraction Kit. Diagnosis of leptospiras was enforced by PCR and Real time PCR (SYBR Green) techniques using lipL32 specific primer. Out of the patients, 11 samples (44%) and 8 samples (32%) were determined to be pathogenic Leptospira by Real time PCR and PCR technique, respectively. Out of the mice, 9 Samples (36%) and 3 samples (12%) were determined to be pathogenic Leptospira by the mentioned techniques, respectively. Although the culture technique is considered to be the gold standard technique, but due to the slow growth of pathogenic Leptospira and lack of colony formation of some species, it is not a fast technique. Real time PCR allowed rapid diagnosis with much higher accuracy compared to PCR because PCR could not completely identify samples with lower microbial load.Keywords: culture, pathogenic leptospiras, PCR, real time PCR
Procedia PDF Downloads 8517779 Analytical Solutions of Time Space Fractional, Advection-Dispersion and Whitham-Broer-Kaup Equations
Authors: Muhammad Danish Khan, Imran Naeem, Mudassar Imran
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In this article, we study time-space Fractional Advection-Dispersion (FADE) equation and time-space Fractional Whitham-Broer-Kaup (FWBK) equation that have a significant role in hydrology. We introduce suitable transformations to convert fractional order derivatives to integer order derivatives and as a result these equations transform into Partial Differential Equations (PDEs). Then the Lie symmetries and corresponding optimal systems of the resulting PDEs are derived. The symmetry reductions and exact independent solutions based on optimal system are investigated which constitute the exact solutions of original fractional differential equations.Keywords: modified Riemann-Liouville fractional derivative, lie-symmetries, optimal system, invariant solutions
Procedia PDF Downloads 43117778 Structural-Geotechnical Effects of the Foundation of a Medium-Height Structure
Authors: Valentina Rodas, Luis Almache
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The interaction effects between the existing soil and the substructure of a 5-story building with an underground one were evaluated in such a way that the structural-geotechnical concepts were validated through the method of impedance factors with a program based on the method of the finite elements. The continuous wall-type foundation had a constant thickness and followed inclined and orthogonal directions, while the ground had homogeneous and medium-type characteristics. The soil considered was type C according to the Ecuadorian Construction Standard (NEC) and the corresponding foundation comprised a depth of 4.00 meters and a basement wall thickness of 40 centimeters. This project is part of a mid-rise building in the city of Azogues (Ecuador). The hypotheses raised responded to the objectives in such a way that the model implemented with springs had a variation with respect to the embedded base, obtaining conservative results.Keywords: interaction, soil, substructure, springs, effects, modeling , embedment
Procedia PDF Downloads 23017777 Message Authentication Scheme for Vehicular Ad-Hoc Networks under Sparse RSUs Environment
Authors: Wen Shyong Hsieh, Chih Hsueh Lin
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In this paper, we combine the concepts of chameleon hash function (CHF) and identification based cryptography (IBC) to build a message authentication environment for VANET under sparse RSUs. Based on the CHF, TA keeps two common secrets that will be embedded to all identities to be as the evidence of mutual trusting. TA will issue one original identity to every RSU and vehicle. An identity contains one public ID and one private key. The public ID, includes three components: pseudonym, random key, and public key, is used to present one entity and can be verified to be a legal one. The private key is used to claim the ownership of the public ID. Based on the concept of IBC, without any negotiating process, a CHF pairing key multiplied by one private key and other’s public key will be used for mutually trusting and to be utilized as the session key of secure communicating between RSUs and vehicles. To help the vehicles to do message authenticating, the RSUs are assigned to response the vehicle’s temple identity request using two short time secretes that are broadcasted by TA. To light the loading of request information, one day is divided into M time slots. At every time slot, TA will broadcast two short time secretes to all valid RSUs for that time slot. Any RSU can response the temple identity request from legal vehicles. With the collected announcement of public IDs from the neighbor vehicles, a vehicle can set up its neighboring set, which includes the information about the neighbor vehicle’s temple public ID and temple CHF pairing key that can be derived by the private key and neighbor’s public key and will be used to do message authenticating or secure communicating without the help of RSU.Keywords: Internet of Vehicles (IOV), Vehicular Ad-hoc Networks (VANETs), Chameleon Hash Function (CHF), message authentication
Procedia PDF Downloads 39117776 Forecasting 24-Hour Ahead Electricity Load Using Time Series Models
Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi
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Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation, and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet, and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria, namely, the mean absolute error and root mean square error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data is used to train the models. The results of this study show that the SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts, we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hours ahead of electricity load forecasting.Keywords: bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, load forecast, SARIMA, TensorFlow probability, time series
Procedia PDF Downloads 9617775 MB-Slam: A Slam Framework for Construction Monitoring
Authors: Mojtaba Noghabaei, Khashayar Asadi, Kevin Han
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Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) technology has recently attracted the attention of construction companies for real-time performance monitoring. To effectively use SLAM for construction performance monitoring, SLAM results should be registered to a Building Information Models (BIM). Registring SLAM and BIM can provide essential insights for construction managers to identify construction deficiencies in real-time and ultimately reduce rework. Also, registering SLAM to BIM in real-time can boost the accuracy of SLAM since SLAM can use features from both images and 3d models. However, registering SLAM with the BIM in real-time is a challenge. In this study, a novel SLAM platform named Model-Based SLAM (MB-SLAM) is proposed, which not only provides automated registration of SLAM and BIM but also improves the localization accuracy of the SLAM system in real-time. This framework improves the accuracy of SLAM by aligning perspective features such as depth, vanishing points, and vanishing lines from the BIM to the SLAM system. This framework extracts depth features from a monocular camera’s image and improves the localization accuracy of the SLAM system through a real-time iterative process. Initially, SLAM can be used to calculate a rough camera pose for each keyframe. In the next step, each SLAM video sequence keyframe is registered to the BIM in real-time by aligning the keyframe’s perspective with the equivalent BIM view. The alignment method is based on perspective detection that estimates vanishing lines and points by detecting straight edges on images. This process will generate the associated BIM views from the keyframes' views. The calculated poses are later improved during a real-time gradient descent-based iteration method. Two case studies were presented to validate MB-SLAM. The validation process demonstrated promising results and accurately registered SLAM to BIM and significantly improved the SLAM’s localization accuracy. Besides, MB-SLAM achieved real-time performance in both indoor and outdoor environments. The proposed method can fully automate past studies and generate as-built models that are aligned with BIM. The main contribution of this study is a SLAM framework for both research and commercial usage, which aims to monitor construction progress and performance in a unified framework. Through this platform, users can improve the accuracy of the SLAM by providing a rough 3D model of the environment. MB-SLAM further boosts the application to practical usage of the SLAM.Keywords: perspective alignment, progress monitoring, slam, stereo matching.
Procedia PDF Downloads 22517774 An Approach for Determining and Reducing Vehicle Turnaround Time for Outbound Logistics by Using Critical Path Method
Authors: Prajakta M. Wazat, D. N. Raut
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The study consists of a fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) beverage company wherein a portion of the supply chain which deals with outbound logistics is taken for improvement in order to reduce its logistics cost by using critical path method (CPM) method. Logistics is a major portion of the supply chain where customers are not willing to pay as it adds cost to product without adding value. In this study, it is necessary to ensure that products are delivered to clients at the right time while preserving high-quality standards from the beginning to the end of the supply chain. CPM is a logical sequencing method where in the most efficient route is achieved by arranging the series of events. CPM enables to identify a critical factor in order to minimize the delays and interruption by providing a feasible solution.Keywords: FMCG, supply chain, outbound logistics, vehicle turnaround time, critical path method, cost reduction
Procedia PDF Downloads 16517773 Modelling of Meandering River Dynamics in Colombia: A Case Study of the Magdalena River
Authors: Laura Isabel Guarin, Juliana Vargas, Philippe Chang
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The analysis and study of Open Channel flow dynamics for River applications has been based on flow modelling using discreet numerical models based on hydrodynamic equations. The overall spatial characteristics of rivers, i.e. its length to depth to width ratio generally allows one to correctly disregard processes occurring in the vertical or transverse dimensions thus imposing hydrostatic pressure conditions and considering solely a 1D flow model along the river length. Through a calibration process an accurate flow model may thus be developed allowing for channel study and extrapolation of various scenarios. The Magdalena River in Colombia is a large river basin draining the country from South to North with 1550 km with 0.0024 average slope and 275 average width across. The river displays high water level fluctuation and is characterized by a series of meanders. The city of La Dorada has been affected over the years by serious flooding in the rainy and dry seasons. As the meander is evolving at a steady pace repeated flooding has endangered a number of neighborhoods. This study has been undertaken in pro of correctly model flow characteristics of the river in this region in order to evaluate various scenarios and provide decision makers with erosion control measures options and a forecasting tool. Two field campaigns have been completed over the dry and rainy seasons including extensive topographical and channel survey using Topcon GR5 DGPS and River Surveyor ADCP. Also in order to characterize the erosion process occurring through the meander, extensive suspended and river bed samples were retrieved as well as soil perforation over the banks. Hence based on DEM ground digital mapping survey and field data a 2DH flow model was prepared using the Iber freeware based on the finite volume method in a non-structured mesh environment. The calibration process was carried out comparing available historical data of nearby hydrologic gauging station. Although the model was able to effectively predict overall flow processes in the region, its spatial characteristics and limitations related to pressure conditions did not allow for an accurate representation of erosion processes occurring over specific bank areas and dwellings. As such a significant helical flow has been observed through the meander. Furthermore, the rapidly changing channel cross section as a consequence of severe erosion has hindered the model’s ability to provide decision makers with a valid up to date planning tool.Keywords: erosion, finite volume method, flow dynamics, flow modelling, meander
Procedia PDF Downloads 31917772 Radial Distribution Network Reliability Improvement by Using Imperialist Competitive Algorithm
Authors: Azim Khodadadi, Sahar Sadaat Vakili, Ebrahim Babaei
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This study presents a numerical method to optimize the failure rate and repair time of a typical radial distribution system. Failure rate and repair time are effective parameters in customer and energy based indices of reliability. Decrease of these parameters improves reliability indices. Thus, system stability will be boost. The penalty functions indirectly reflect the cost of investment which spent to improve these indices. Constraints on customer and energy based indices, i.e. SAIFI, SAIDI, CAIDI and AENS have been considered by using a new method which reduces optimization algorithm controlling parameters. Imperialist Competitive Algorithm (ICA) used as main optimization technique and particle swarm optimization (PSO), simulated annealing (SA) and differential evolution (DE) has been applied for further investigation. These algorithms have been implemented on a test system by MATLAB. Obtained results have been compared with each other. The optimized values of repair time and failure rate are much lower than current values which this achievement reduced investment cost and also ICA gives better answer than the other used algorithms.Keywords: imperialist competitive algorithm, failure rate, repair time, radial distribution network
Procedia PDF Downloads 66917771 Real Time Traffic Performance Study over MPLS VPNs with DiffServ
Authors: Naveed Ghani
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With the arrival of higher speed communication links and mature application running over the internet, the requirement for reliable, efficient and robust network designs rising day by day. Multi-Protocol Label Switching technology (MPLS) Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) have committed to provide optimal network services. They are gaining popularity in industry day by day. Enterprise customers are moving to service providers that offer MPLS VPNs. The main reason for this shifting is the capability of MPLS VPN to provide built in security features and any-to-any connectivity. MPLS VPNs improved the network performance due to fast label switching as compare to traditional IP Forwarding but traffic classification and policing was still required on per hop basis to enhance the performance of real time traffic which is delay sensitive (particularly voice and video). QoS (Quality of service) is the most important factor to prioritize enterprise networks’ real time traffic such as voice and video. This thesis is focused on the study of QoS parameters (e.g. delay, jitter and MOS (Mean Opinion Score)) for the real time traffic over MPLS VPNs. DiffServ (Differentiated Services) QoS model will be used over MPLS VPN network to get end-to-end service quality.Keywords: network, MPLS, VPN, DiffServ, MPLS VPN, DiffServ QoS, QoS Model, GNS2
Procedia PDF Downloads 42617770 A Stochastic Diffusion Process Based on the Two-Parameters Weibull Density Function
Authors: Meriem Bahij, Ahmed Nafidi, Boujemâa Achchab, Sílvio M. A. Gama, José A. O. Matos
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Stochastic modeling concerns the use of probability to model real-world situations in which uncertainty is present. Therefore, the purpose of stochastic modeling is to estimate the probability of outcomes within a forecast, i.e. to be able to predict what conditions or decisions might happen under different situations. In the present study, we present a model of a stochastic diffusion process based on the bi-Weibull distribution function (its trend is proportional to the bi-Weibull probability density function). In general, the Weibull distribution has the ability to assume the characteristics of many different types of distributions. This has made it very popular among engineers and quality practitioners, who have considered it the most commonly used distribution for studying problems such as modeling reliability data, accelerated life testing, and maintainability modeling and analysis. In this work, we start by obtaining the probabilistic characteristics of this model, as the explicit expression of the process, its trends, and its distribution by transforming the diffusion process in a Wiener process as shown in the Ricciaardi theorem. Then, we develop the statistical inference of this model using the maximum likelihood methodology. Finally, we analyse with simulated data the computational problems associated with the parameters, an issue of great importance in its application to real data with the use of the convergence analysis methods. Overall, the use of a stochastic model reflects only a pragmatic decision on the part of the modeler. According to the data that is available and the universe of models known to the modeler, this model represents the best currently available description of the phenomenon under consideration.Keywords: diffusion process, discrete sampling, likelihood estimation method, simulation, stochastic diffusion process, trends functions, bi-parameters weibull density function
Procedia PDF Downloads 30917769 Spatial Temporal Change of COVID-19 Vaccination Condition in the US: An Exploration Based on Space Time Cube
Authors: Yue Hao
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COVID-19 vaccines not only protect individuals but society as a whole. In this case, having an understanding of the change and trend of vaccination conditions may shed some light on revising and making up-to-date policies regarding large-scale public health promotions and calls in order to lead and encourage the adoption of COVID-19 vaccines. However, vaccination status change over time and vary from place to place hidden patterns that were not fully explored in previous research. In our research, we took advantage of the spatial-temporal analytical methods in the domain of geographic information science and captured the spatial-temporal changes regarding COVID-19 vaccination status in the United States during 2020 and 2021. After conducting the emerging hot spots analysis on both the state level data of the US and county level data of California we found that: (1) at the macroscopic level, there is a continuously increasing trend of the vaccination rate in the US, but there is a variance on the spatial clusters at county level; (2) spatial hotspots and clusters with high vaccination amount over time were clustered around the west and east coast in regions like California and New York City where are densely populated with considerable economy conditions; (3) in terms of the growing trend of the daily vaccination among, Los Angeles County alone has very high statistics and dramatic increases over time. We hope that our findings can be valuable guidance for supporting future decision-making regarding vaccination policies as well as directing new research on relevant topics.Keywords: COVID-19 vaccine, GIS, space time cube, spatial-temporal analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 7917768 Forecasting of COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalization Admissions, and Death Cases Based on Wastewater Sars-COV-2 Surveillance Using Copula Time Series Model
Authors: Hueiwang Anna Jeng, Norou Diawara, Nancy Welch, Cynthia Jackson, Rekha Singh, Kyle Curtis, Raul Gonzalez, David Jurgens, Sasanka Adikari
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Modeling effort is needed to predict the COVID-19 trends for developing management strategies and adaptation measures. The objective of this study was to assess whether SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater could serve as a predictor for forecasting COVID-19 cases, hospitalization cases, and death cases using copula-based time series modeling. SARS-CoV-2 RNA load in raw wastewater in Chesapeake VA was measured using the RT-qPCR method. Gaussian copula time series marginal regression model, incorporating an autoregressive moving average model and the copula function, served as a forecasting model. COVID-19 cases were correlated with wastewater viral load, hospitalization cases, and death cases. The forecasted trend of COVID-19 cases closely paralleled one of the reported cases, with over 90% of the forecasted COVID-19 cases falling within the 99% confidence interval of the reported cases. Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral load could serve as a predictor for COVID-19 cases and hospitalization cases.Keywords: COVID-19, modeling, time series, copula function
Procedia PDF Downloads 6917767 The Complete Modal Derivatives
Authors: Sebastian Andersen, Peter N. Poulsen
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The use of basis projection in the structural dynamic analysis is frequently applied. The purpose of the method is to improve the computational efficiency, while maintaining a high solution accuracy, by projection the governing equations onto a small set of carefully selected basis vectors. The present work considers basis projection in kinematic nonlinear systems with a focus on two widely used basis vectors; the system mode shapes and their modal derivatives. Particularly the latter basis vectors are given special attention since only approximate modal derivatives have been used until now. In the present work the complete modal derivatives, derived from perturbation methods, are presented and compared to the previously applied approximate modal derivatives. The correctness of the complete modal derivatives is illustrated by use of an example of a harmonically loaded kinematic nonlinear structure modeled by beam elements.Keywords: basis projection, finite element method, kinematic nonlinearities, modal derivatives
Procedia PDF Downloads 23717766 A High Time Resolution Digital Pulse Width Modulator Based on Field Programmable Gate Array’s Phase Locked Loop Megafunction
Authors: Jun Wang, Tingcun Wei
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The digital pulse width modulator (DPWM) is the crucial building block for digitally-controlled DC-DC switching converter, which converts the digital duty ratio signal into its analog counterpart to control the power MOSFET transistors on or off. With the increase of switching frequency of digitally-controlled DC-DC converter, the DPWM with higher time resolution is required. In this paper, a 15-bits DPWM with three-level hybrid structure is presented; the first level is composed of a7-bits counter and a comparator, the second one is a 5-bits delay line, and the third one is a 3-bits digital dither. The presented DPWM is designed and implemented using the PLL megafunction of FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Arrays), and the required frequency of clock signal is 128 times of switching frequency. The simulation results show that, for the switching frequency of 2 MHz, a DPWM which has the time resolution of 15 ps is achieved using a maximum clock frequency of 256MHz. The designed DPWM in this paper is especially useful for high-frequency digitally-controlled DC-DC switching converters.Keywords: DPWM, digitally-controlled DC-DC switching converter, FPGA, PLL megafunction, time resolution
Procedia PDF Downloads 480