Search results for: transition probability density

Authors: Bartłomiej K. Sołtysik, Agnieszka Guligowska, Łukasz Kroc, Małgorzata Pigłowska, Elizavetta Fife, Tomasz Kostka

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Introduction: Functional capacity is one of the basic determinants of health in older age. Functional capacity may be influenced by multiple disorders, including cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. Nevertheless, there is relatively little evidence regarding the association of functional status and cardiometabolic risk factors. Aim: The aim of this research is to check possible association between functional capacity and cardiovascular risk factor in a group of younger seniors. Materials and Methods: The study group consisted of 300 participants aged 60-65 years (50% were women). Total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), glucose, uric acid, body mass index (BMI), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and blood pressure were measured. Smoking status and physical activity level (by Seven Day Physical Activity Recall Questionnaire ) were analysed. Functional status was assessed with the Timed Up and Go (TUG) Test. The data were compared according to gender, and then separately for both sexes regarding prolonged TUG score (>7 s). The limit of significance was set at p≤0.05 for all analyses. Results: Women presented with higher serum lipids and longer TUG. Men had higher blood pressure, glucose, uric acid, the prevalence of hypertension and history of heart infarct. In women group, those with prolonged TUG displayed significantly higher obesity rate (BMI, WHTR), uric acid, hypertension and ischemic heart disease (IHD), but lower physical activity level, TC or LDL-C. Men with prolonged TUG were heavier smokers, had higher TG, lower HDL and presented with higher prevalence of diabetes and IHD. Discussion: This study shows association between functional status and risk profile of cardiometabolic disorders. In women, the relationship of lower functional status to cardiometabolic diseases may be mediated by overweight/obesity. In men, locomotor problems may be related to smoking. Higher education level may be considered as a protective factor regardless of gender.

Keywords: cardiovascular risk factors, functional capacity, TUG test, seniors

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Authors: Daniel Puciato, Piotr Oleśniewicz, Julita Markiewicz-Patkowska, Krzysztof Widawski, Michał Rozpara, Władysław Mynarski, Agnieszka Gawlik, Małgorzata Dębska, Soňa Jandová

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Physical activity as a part of people’s everyday life reduces the risk of many diseases, including those induced by lifestyle, e.g. obesity, type 2 diabetes, osteoporosis, coronary heart disease, degenerative arthritis, and certain types of cancer. That refers particularly to professionally active people, including the early senior group working on non-manual positions. The aim of the study is to evaluate the relationship between physical activity and the socio-economic status of non-manual workers from Wroclaw—one of the biggest cities in Poland, a model setting for such investigations in this part of Europe. The crucial problem in the research is to find out the percentage of respondents who meet the health-related recommendations of the World Health Organization (WHO) concerning the volume, frequency, and intensity of physical activity, as well as to establish if the most important socio-economic factors, such as gender, age, education, marital status, per capita income, savings and debt, determine the compliance with the WHO physical activity recommendations. During the research, conducted in 2013, 1,170 people (611 women and 559 men) aged 21–60 years were examined. A diagnostic poll method was applied to collect the data. Physical activity was measured with the use of the short form of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire with extended socio-demographic questions, i.e. concerning gender, age, education, marital status, income, savings or debts. To evaluate the relationship between physical activity and selected socio-economic factors, logistic regression was used (odds ratio statistics). Statistical inference was conducted on the adopted ex ante probability level of p<0.05. The majority of respondents met the volume of physical effort recommended for health benefits. It was particularly noticeable in the case of the examined men. The probability of compliance with the WHO physical activity recommendations was highest for workers aged 21–30 years with secondary or higher education who were single, received highest incomes and had savings. The results indicate the relations between physical activity and socio-economic status in the examined women and men. People with lower socio-economic status (e.g. manual workers) are physically active primarily at work, whereas those better educated and wealthier implement physical effort primarily in their leisure time. Among the investigated subjects, the youngest group of non-manual workers have the best chances to meet the WHO standards of physical activity. The study also confirms that secondary education has a positive effect on the public awareness on the role of physical activity in human life. In general, the analysis of the research indicates that there is a relationship between physical activity and some socio-economic factors of the respondents, such as gender, age, education, marital status, income per capita, and the possession of savings. Although the obtained results cannot be applied for the general population, they show some important trends that will be verified in subsequent studies conducted by the authors of the paper.

Keywords: IPAQ, nonmanual workers, physical activity, socioeconomic factors, WHO

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Authors: A. Melka, N. Slater, A. Mualem, Y. Louzoun

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Networks are often presented as containing a “core” and a “periphery.” The existence of a core suggests that some vertices are central and form the skeleton of the network, to which all other vertices are connected. An alternative view of graphs is through communities. Multiple measures have been proposed for dense communities in graphs, the most classical being k-cliques, k-cores, and k-plexes, all presenting groups of tightly connected vertices. We here show that the edge number thresholds for such communities to emerge and for their percolation into a single dense connectivity component are very close, in all networks studied. These percolating cliques produce a natural core and periphery structure. This result is generic and is tested in configuration models and in real-world networks. This is also true for k-cores and k-plexes. Thus, the emergence of this connectedness among communities leading to a core is not dependent on some specific mechanism but a direct result of the natural percolation of dense communities.

Keywords: cliques, core structure, percolation, phase transition

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Authors: Svetlana K. Eden

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Movies and TV shows have long become part of modern culture. We all have our preferred genre, story, actors, and actresses. However, can we objectively discern good acting from the bad? As laymen, we are probably not objective, but what about the Oscar academy members? Are their votes based on objective measures? Oscar academy members are probably also biased due to many factors, including their professional affiliations or advertisement exposure. Heavily advertised films bring more publicity to their cast and are likely to have bigger budgets. Because a bigger budget may also help earn a Best Picture (BP) nomination, we hypothesize that best actor/actress (BA) nominees from BP-nominated movies would have higher chances of winning the award than those BA nominees from non-BP-nominated films. To test this hypothesis, three Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed, and their performance is evaluated. The results from all three models largely support our hypothesis. Depending on the proportion of BP nominations among BA nominees, the odds ratios (estimated over expected) of winning the BA award conditional on BP nomination vary from 2.8 [0.8-7.0] to 4.3 [2.0, 15.8] for actors and from 1.5 [0.0, 12.2] to 5.4 [2.7, 14.2] for actresses.

Keywords: Oscar, best picture, best actor/actress, bias

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Authors: Azade Sedigh, Mehrdad Modaresi, Akbar Pirestani

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Appropriate nutrition is necessary today for desire reproduction and profitable livestock industry. Minerals including zinc element are from nutritional factors. Studies show that zinc plays an important role in reproduction process and secretion of reproductive hormones. This study was carried out to determine the effects of organic zinc on some reproductive hormones, fertility of male mice. The study was done as completely randomized design with one control and six treatment groups. Seventy male mature mice were kept for 35 days to adapt to environment and then divided in seven groups with ten replications. Samples received zinc (organic) daily in 50,100, and 150 ppm doses of each type for 35 days. At the end, blood samples were taken to measure LH, FSH, and testosterone hormones. Meanwhile, fertility rates were measured. Results were analyzed using one way ANOVA and means were compared using Duncan multiple ranges test at 5% probability level. According to results, LH concentration of all groups except 50 ppm was increased significantly (p<0.05). FSH amount was increased significantly (p<0.05) in 100 ppm mineral group and reduced in 50 ppm mineral but was not changed in other groups.

Keywords: organic supplements, zinc, reproductive hormones, fertility

Procedia PDF Downloads 468

Authors: Y. Shiren, M. Masuzawa, H. Ohkura, T. Yamagata, Y. Aman, N. Kobayashi

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An important problem for the CaSO4/CaSO4･1/2H2O Chemical heat pump (CHP) is that the material is deactivated through repetitive reaction between hydration and dehydration in which the crystal phase of the material is transformed from III-CaSO4 to II-CaSO4. We investigated suppression on the phase change by adding a sulfated compound. The most effective material was MgSO4. MgSO4 doping increased the durability of CaSO4 in the actual CHP repetitive cycle of hydration/dehydration to 3.6 times that of undoped CaSO4. The MgSO4-doped CaSO4 showed a higher phase transition temperature and activation energy for crystal transformation from III-CaSO4 to II-CaSO4. MgSO4 doping decreased the crystal lattice size of CaSO4･1/2H2O and II-CaSO4 to smaller than that of undoped CaSO4. Modification of the crystal structure is considered to be related to the durability change in CaSO4 resulting from MgSO4 doping.

Keywords: CaSO4, chemical heat pump, durability of chemical heat storage material, heat storage

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Authors: Raya Al Khayari, Rasha Al Jassim, Muna Al Balushi, Fatma Al Moqbali, Said El Hajjar

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This study utilizes linear regression analysis to investigate the correlation between user account passwords and the probability of civil ID exposure, offering statistical insights into civil ID security. The study employs multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis to further investigate the elements that influence consumers’ views of civil ID security. This aims to increase awareness and improve preventive measures. The results obtained from the MLR analysis provide a thorough comprehension and can guide specific educational and awareness campaigns aimed at promoting improved security procedures. In summary, the study’s results offer significant insights for improving existing security measures and developing more efficient tactics to reduce risks related to civil ID security in Oman. By identifying key factors that impact consumers’ perceptions, organizations can tailor their strategies to address vulnerabilities effectively. Additionally, the findings can inform policymakers on potential regulatory changes to enhance civil ID security in the country.

Keywords: civil-id disclosure, awareness, linear regression, multiple regression

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Authors: Tallataf Rasheed, Adnan Rashdi, Ahmad Naeem Akhtar

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The accurate spectrum sensing is a fundamental requirement of dynamic spectrum access for deployment of Cognitive Radio Network (CRN). To acheive this requirement a Reliability factors based Fuzzy Logic (RFL) Scheme for Spectrum Sensing has been proposed in this paper. Cognitive Radio User (CRU) predicts the presence or absence of Primary User (PU) using energy detector and calculates the Reliability factors which are SNR of sensing node, threshold of energy detector and decision difference of each node with other nodes in a cooperative spectrum sensing environment. Then the decision of energy detector is combined with Reliability factors of sensing node using Fuzzy Logic. These Reliability Factors used in RFL Scheme describes the reliability of decision made by a CRU to improve the local spectrum sensing. This Fuzzy combining scheme provides the accuracy of decision made by sensornode. The simulation results have shown that the proposed technique provide better PU detection probability than existing Spectrum Sensing Techniques.

Keywords: cognitive radio, spectrum sensing, energy detector, reliability factors, fuzzy logic

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Authors: Mehdi Homayouni, Karim Adinehvand, Bakhtiar Azadbakht

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In this study, we used Monte Carlo code (MCNP4C) that is a general method, for simulation, electron source and electric field, a disc source with 0.05 cm radius in direct of anode are used, radius of disc source show focal spot of X-ray tube that here is 0.05 cm. In this simulation, the anode is from tungsten with 18.9 g/cm3 density and angle of the anode is 18°. We simulated X-ray tube for 140 kv. For increasing of speed data acquisition, we use F5 tally. With determination the exact position of F5 tally in the program, outputs are acquired. In this spectrum the start point is about 0.02 Mev, the absorption edges are about 0.06 Mev and 0.07 Mev, and average energy is about 0.05 Mev.

Keywords: X-spectrum, simulation, Monte Carlo, tube

Procedia PDF Downloads 722

Authors: Valentina A. Mikhailova, Serguei V. Feskov, Anatoly I. Ivanov

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In the last decade the nonequilibrium charge transfer have attracted considerable interest from the scientific community. Examples of such processes are the charge recombination in excited donor-acceptor complexes and the intramolecular electron transfer from the second excited electronic state. In these reactions the charge transfer proceeds predominantly in the nonequilibrium mode. In the excited donor-acceptor complexes the nuclear nonequilibrium is created by the pump pulse. The intramolecular electron transfer from the second excited electronic state is an example where the nuclear nonequilibrium is created by the forward electron transfer. The kinetics of these nonequilibrium reactions demonstrate a number of peculiar properties. Most important from them are: (i) the absence of the Marcus normal region in the free energy gap law for the charge recombination in excited donor-acceptor complexes, (ii) extremely low quantum yield of thermalized charge separated state in the ultrafast charge transfer from the second excited state, (iii) the nonexponential charge recombination dynamics in excited donor-acceptor complexes, (iv) the dependence of the charge transfer rate constant on the excitation pulse frequency. This report shows that most of these kinetic features can be well reproduced in the framework of stochastic point-transition multichannel model. The model involves an explicit description of the nonequilibrium excited state formation by the pump pulse and accounts for the reorganization of intramolecular high-frequency vibrational modes, for their relaxation as well as for the solvent relaxation. The model is able to quantitatively reproduce complex nonequilibrium charge transfer kinetics observed in modern experiments. The interpretation of the nonequilibrium effects from a unified point of view in the terms of the multichannel point transition stochastic model allows to see similarities and differences of electron transfer mechanism in various molecular donor-acceptor systems and formulates general regularities inherent in these phenomena. The nonequilibrium effects in photoinduced ultrafast charge transfer which have been studied for the last 10 years are analyzed. The methods of suppression of the ultrafast charge recombination, similarities and dissimilarities of electron transfer mechanism in different molecular donor-acceptor systems are discussed. The extremely low quantum yield of the thermalized charge separated state observed in the ultrafast charge transfer from the second excited state in the complex consisting of 1,2,4-trimethoxybenzene and tetracyanoethylene in acetonitrile solution directly demonstrates that its effectiveness can be close to unity. This experimental finding supports the idea that the nonequilibrium charge recombination in the excited donor-acceptor complexes can be also very effective so that the part of thermalized complexes is negligible. It is discussed the regularities inherent to the equilibrium and nonequilibrium reactions. Their fundamental differences are analyzed. Namely the opposite dependencies of the charge transfer rates on the dynamical properties of the solvent. The increase of the solvent viscosity results in decreasing the thermal rate and vice versa increasing the nonequilibrium rate. The dependencies of the rates on the solvent reorganization energy and the free energy gap also can considerably differ. This work was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Grant No. 16-13-10122).

Keywords: Charge recombination, higher excited states, free energy gap law, nonequilibrium

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Authors: Pranav Gunhal., Krish Jhurani

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This study tackles the significant computational challenge of predicting excited state dynamics in organic photovoltaic (OPV) materials—a pivotal factor in the performance of solar energy solutions. Time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT), though effective, is computationally prohibitive for larger and more complex molecules. As a solution, the research explores the application of transformer neural networks, a type of artificial intelligence (AI) model known for its superior performance in natural language processing, to predict excited state dynamics in OPV materials. The methodology involves a two-fold process. First, the transformer model is trained on an extensive dataset comprising over 10,000 TDDFT calculations of excited state dynamics from a diverse set of OPV materials. Each training example includes a molecular structure and the corresponding TDDFT-calculated excited state lifetimes and key electronic transitions. Second, the trained model is tested on a separate set of molecules, and its predictions are rigorously compared to independent TDDFT calculations. The results indicate a remarkable degree of predictive accuracy. Specifically, for a test set of 1,000 OPV materials, the transformer model predicted excited state lifetimes with a mean absolute error of 0.15 picoseconds, a negligible deviation from TDDFT-calculated values. The model also correctly identified key electronic transitions contributing to the excited state dynamics in 92% of the test cases, signifying a substantial concordance with the results obtained via conventional quantum chemistry calculations. The practical integration of the transformer model with existing quantum chemistry software was also realized, demonstrating its potential as a powerful tool in the arsenal of materials scientists and chemists. The implementation of this AI model is estimated to reduce the computational cost of predicting excited state dynamics by two orders of magnitude compared to conventional TDDFT calculations. The successful utilization of transformer neural networks to accurately predict excited state dynamics provides an efficient computational pathway for the accelerated discovery and design of new OPV materials, potentially catalyzing advancements in the realm of sustainable energy solutions.

Keywords: transformer neural networks, organic photovoltaic materials, excited state dynamics, time-dependent density functional theory, predictive modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Lotanna Ezeonu, Jason P. Robbins, Ziyu Tang, Xiaofang Yang, Bruce E. Koel, Simon G. Podkolzin

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The interaction of organic molecules with metal surfaces is of interest in numerous technological applications, such as catalysis, bone replacement, and biosensors. Acetic acid is one of the main products of bio-oils produced from the pyrolysis of hemicellulosic feedstocks. However, their high oxygen content makes them unsuitable for use as fuels. Hydrodeoxygenation is a proven technique for catalytic deoxygenation of bio-oils. An understanding of the energetics and control of the bond-breaking sequences of biomass-derived oxygenates on metal surfaces will enable a guided optimization of existing catalysts and the development of more active/selective processes for biomass transformations to fuels. Such investigations have been carried out with the aid of ultrahigh vacuum and its concomitant techniques. The high catalytic activity of platinum in biomass-derived oxygenate transformations has sparked a lot of interest. We herein exploit infrared reflection absorption spectroscopy(IRAS), temperature-programmed desorption(TPD), and density functional theory(DFT) to study the adsorption and decomposition of acetic acid on a Pt(111) surface, which was then compared with Ni(111), a model non-noble metal. We found that acetic acid adsorbs molecularly on the Pt(111) surface, interacting through the lone pair of electrons of one oxygen atomat 90 K. At 140 K, the molecular form is still predominant, with some dissociative adsorption (in the form of acetate and hydrogen). Annealing to 193 K led to complete dehydrogenation of molecular acetic acid species leaving adsorbed acetate. At 440 K, decomposition of the acetate species occurs via decarbonylation and decarboxylation as evidenced by desorption peaks for H₂,CO, CO₂ and CHX fragments (x=1, 2) in theTPD.The assignments for the experimental IR peaks were made using visualization of the DFT-calculated vibrational modes. The results showed that acetate adsorbs in a bridged bidentate (μ²η²(O,O)) configuration. The coexistence of linear and bridge bonded CO was also predicted by the DFT results. Similar molecular acid adsorption energy was predicted in the case of Ni(111) whereas a significant difference was found for acetate adsorption.

Keywords: acetic acid, platinum, nickel, infared-absorption spectrocopy, temperature programmed desorption, density functional theory

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Authors: Anjali G. Pillai, S. Chadrakaran

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The extensive amount of sludge generated throughout the world, as a part of water treatment works, have caused various social and economic issues, such as a demand on landfill spaces, increase in environmental pollution and raising the waste management cost. With growing social awareness about toxic incinerator emissions and the increasing concern over the disposal of sludge on the agricultural land, the recovery of sewage sludge as a building and construction raw material can be considered as an innovative approach to tackle the sludge disposal problem. The proposed work aims at studying the recycling ability of the sludge, generated from the water treatment process, by incorporating it into the fired clay brick units. The work involves initial study of the geotechnical characteristics of the brick-clay and the sludge. Chemical compatibility of both the materials will be analyzed by X-ray fluorescence technique. The variation in the strength aspects with varying proportions of sludge i.e. 10%, 20%, 30% and 40% in the sludge-clay mix will also be determined by the proctor density test. Based on the optimum moisture content, the sludge-clay bricks will be manufactured in a brick manufacturing plant and the modified brick units will be tested to determine the variation in compressive strength, bulk density, firing shrinkage, shrinkage loss and initial water absorption rate with respect to the conventional clay bricks. The results will be compared with the specifications given in Indian Standards to arrive at the potential use of the new bricks. The durability aspect will be studied by conducting the leachate analysis test using atomic adsorption spectrometry. The lightweight characteristics of the sludge modified bricks will be ascertained with the scanning electron microscope technique which will be indicative of the variation in pore structure with the increase in sludge content within the bricks. The work will determine the suitable proportion of the sludge – clay mix in the brick which can then be effectively implemented. The feasibility aspect of the work will be determined for commercial production of the units. The work involves providing a strategy for conversion of waste to resource. Moreover, it provides an alternative solution to the problem of growing scarcity of brick-clay for the manufacturing of fired clay bricks.

Keywords: eco-bricks, green construction material, sludge amended bricks, sludge disposal, waste management

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Authors: Jens-Phillip Petersen

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The reduction of GHG emissions in buildings is a focus area of national energy policies in Europe, because buildings are responsible for a major share of the final energy consumption. It is at local scale where policies to increase the share of renewable energies and energy efficiency measures get implemented. Municipalities, as local authorities and responsible entity for land-use planning, have a direct influence on urban patterns and energy use, which makes them key actors in the transition towards sustainable cities. Hence, synchronizing urban planning with energy planning offers great potential to increase society’s energy-efficiency; this has a high significance to reach GHG-reduction targets. In this paper, the actual linkage of urban planning and energy planning in Denmark and Germany was assessed; substantive barriers preventing their integration and driving factors that lead to successful transitions towards a holistic urban energy planning procedures were identified.

Keywords: energy planning, urban planning, renewable energies, sustainable cities

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Authors: Fuchun Li, Hong Xiao

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We propose a new early warning model for predicting financial stress events for a given future time. In this model, we examine whether credit conditions play an important role as a nonlinear propagator of shocks when predicting the likelihood of occurrence of financial stress events for a given future time. This propagation takes the form of a threshold regression in which a regime change occurs if credit conditions cross a critical threshold. Given the new early warning model for financial stress events, we evaluate the performance of this model and currently available alternatives, such as the model from signal extraction approach, and linear regression model. In-sample forecasting results indicate that the three types of models are useful tools for predicting financial stress events while none of them outperforms others across all criteria considered. The out-of-sample forecasting results suggest that the credit-regime switching model performs better than the two others across all criteria and all forecasting horizons considered.

Keywords: cut-off probability, early warning model, financial crisis, financial stress, regime-switching model, forecasting horizons

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Authors: Fazia Rahmoune, Sofiane Ziani

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Retrial queueing systems have been extensively used to stochastically model many problems arising in computer networks, telecommunication, telephone systems, among others. In this work, we consider a $M/G/1$ retrial queue with an unreliable server with random vacations and two types of primary customers, persistent and impatient. This model involves the unreliability of the server, which can be subject to physical breakdowns and takes into account the correctives maintenances for restoring the service when a failure occurs. On the other hand, we consider random vacations, which can model the preventives maintenances for improving system performances and preventing breakdowns. We give the necessary and sufficient stability condition of the system. Then, we obtain the joint probability distribution of the server state and the number of customers in orbit and derive the more useful performance measures analytically. Moreover, we also analyze the busy period of the system. Finally, we derive the stability condition and the generating function of the stationary distribution of the number of customers in the system when there is no vacations and impatient customers, and when there is no vacations, server failures and impatient customers.

Keywords: modeling, retrial queue, unreliable server, vacation, stochastic analysis

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Authors: Ayat-Allah Bouramdane

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Since 2010, there have been sustained decreases in the unit costs of onshore wind energy and large increases in its deployment, varying widely across regions. In fact, the onshore wind production is affected by air density— because cold air is more dense and therefore more effective at producing wind power— and by wind speed—as wind turbines cannot operate in very low or extreme stormy winds. The wind speed is essentially affected by the surface friction or the roughness and other topographic features of the land, which slow down winds significantly over the continent. Hence, the identification of the most appropriate locations of onshore wind systems is crucial to maximize their energy output and therefore minimize their Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). This study focuses on the preliminary assessment of onshore wind energy potential, in several areas in Morocco with a particular focus on the Dakhla city, by analyzing the diurnal and seasonal variability of wind speed for different hub heights, the frequency distribution of wind speed, the wind rose and the wind performance indicators such as wind power density, capacity factor, and LCOE. In addition to climate criterion, other criteria (i.e., topography, location, environment) were selected fromGeographic Referenced Information (GRI), reflecting different considerations. The impact of each criterion on the suitability map of onshore wind farms was identified using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). We find that the majority of suitable zones are located along the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. We discuss the sensitivity of the onshore wind site suitability to different aspects such as the methodology—by comparing the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM)-AHP results to the Mean-Variance Portfolio optimization framework—and the potential impact of climate change on this suitability map, and provide the final recommendations to the Moroccan energy strategy by analyzing if the actual Morocco's onshore wind installations are located within areas deemed suitable. This analysis may serve as a decision-making framework for cost-effective investment in onshore wind power in Morocco and to shape the future sustainable development of the Dakhla city.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process (ahp), dakhla, geographic referenced information, morocco, multi-criteria decision-making, onshore wind, site suitability.

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Authors: Mai Ghazal, Ahmed Hammad

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Cost overruns in construction projects are considered as worldwide challenges since the cost performance is one of the main measures of success along with schedule performance. To overcome this problem, studies were conducted to investigate the cost overruns' factors, also projects' historical data were analyzed to extract new and useful knowledge from it. This research is studying and analyzing the effect of some factors causing cost overruns using the historical data from completed construction projects. Then, using these factors to estimate the probability of cost overrun occurrence and predict its percentage for future projects. First, an intensive literature review was done to study all the factors that cause cost overrun in construction projects, then another review was done for previous researcher papers about mining process in dealing with cost overruns. Second, a proposed data warehouse was structured which can be used by organizations to store their future data in a well-organized way so it can be easily analyzed later. Third twelve quantitative factors which their data are frequently available at construction projects were selected to be the analyzed factors and suggested predictors for the proposed model.

Keywords: construction management, construction projects, cost overrun, cost performance, data mining, data warehousing, knowledge discovery, knowledge management

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Authors: Yang Jian-Hong, Zhang Ren-Cheng, Huang Li

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Arc fault is one of the main inducements of electric fires. Arc Fault Detection Device (AFDD) can detect arc fault effectively. Arc fault detections and unhooking standards are the keys to AFDD practical application. First, an arc fault continuous production system was developed, which could count the arc half wave number. Then, Combining with the UL1699 standard, ignition probability curve of cotton and unhooking time of various currents intensity were obtained by experiments. The combustion degree of arc fault could be expressed effectively by arc area. Experiments proved that electric fires would be misjudged or missed only using arc half wave number as AFDD unhooking basis. At last, Practical tests were carried out on the self-developed AFDD system. The result showed that actual AFDD unhooking time was the sum of arc half wave cycling number, Arc wave identification time and unhooking mechanical operation time And the first two shared shorter time. Unhooking time standard depended on the shortest mechanical operation time.

Keywords: arc fault detection device, arc area, arc half wave, unhooking time, arc fault

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Authors: Mina Naeini, Thomas A. Adams II

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Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFCs) feature high electrical efficiency and generate substantial amounts of waste heat that make them suitable for integrated community energy systems (ICEs). By harvesting and distributing the waste heat through hot water pipelines, SOFCs can meet thermal demand of the communities. Therefore, they can replace traditional gas boilers and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Despite these advantages of SOFCs over competing power generation units, this technology has not been successfully commercialized in large-scale to replace traditional generators in ICEs. One reason is that SOFC performance deteriorates over long-term operation, which makes it difficult to find the proper sizing of the cells for a particular ICE system. In order to find the optimal sizing and operating conditions of SOFCs in a community, a proper knowledge of degradation mechanisms and effects of operating conditions on SOFCs long-time performance is required. The simplified SOFC models that exist in the current literature usually do not provide realistic results since they usually underestimate rate of performance drop by making too many assumptions or generalizations. In addition, some of these models have been obtained from experimental data by curve-fitting methods. Although these models are valid for the range of operating conditions in which experiments were conducted, they cannot be generalized to other conditions and so have limited use for most ICEs. In the present study, a general, detailed degradation-based model is proposed that predicts the performance of conventional SOFCs over a long period of time at different operating conditions. Conventional SOFCs are composed of Yttria Stabilized Zirconia (YSZ) as electrolyte, Ni-cermet anodes, and LaSr₁₋ₓMnₓO₃ (LSM) cathodes. The following degradation processes are considered in this model: oxidation and coarsening of nickel particles in the Ni-cermet anodes, changes in the pore radius in anode, electrolyte, and anode electrical conductivity degradation, and sulfur poisoning of the anode compartment. This model helps decision makers discover the optimal sizing and operation of the cells for a stable, efficient performance with the fewest assumptions. It is suitable for a wide variety of applications. Sulfur contamination of the anode compartment is an important cause of performance drop in cells supplied with hydrocarbon-based fuel sources. H₂S, which is often added to hydrocarbon fuels as an odorant, can diminish catalytic behavior of Ni-based anodes by lowering their electrochemical activity and hydrocarbon conversion properties. Therefore, the existing models in the literature for H₂-supplied SOFCs cannot be applied to hydrocarbon-fueled SOFCs as they only account for the electrochemical activity reduction. A regression model is developed in the current work for sulfur contamination of the SOFCs fed with hydrocarbon fuel sources. The model is developed as a function of current density and H₂S concentration in the fuel. To the best of authors' knowledge, it is the first model that accounts for impact of current density on sulfur poisoning of cells supplied with hydrocarbon-based fuels. Proposed model has wide validity over a range of parameters and is consistent across multiple studies by different independent groups. Simulations using the degradation-based model illustrated that SOFCs voltage drops significantly in the first 1500 hours of operation. After that, cells exhibit a slower degradation rate. The present analysis allowed us to discover the reason for various degradation rate values reported in literature for conventional SOFCs. In fact, the reason why literature reports very different degradation rates, is that literature is inconsistent in definition of how degradation rate is calculated. In the literature, the degradation rate has been calculated as the slope of voltage versus time plot with the unit of voltage drop percentage per 1000 hours operation. Due to the nonlinear profile of voltage over time, degradation rate magnitude depends on the magnitude of time steps selected to calculate the curve's slope. To avoid this issue, instantaneous rate of performance drop is used in the present work. According to a sensitivity analysis, the current density has the highest impact on degradation rate compared to other operating factors, while temperature and hydrogen partial pressure affect SOFCs performance less. The findings demonstrated that a cell running at lower current density performs better in long-term in terms of total average energy delivered per year, even though initially it generates less power than if it had a higher current density. This is because of the dominant and devastating impact of large current densities on the long-term performance of SOFCs, as explained by the model.

Keywords: degradation rate, long-term performance, optimal operation, solid oxide fuel cells, SOFCs

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Authors: Angelo Lanzilotto, Martin Kuss-Petermann, Catherine E. Housecroft, Edwin C. Constable, Oliver S. Wenger

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We recently described the synthesis of a new tetraphenylporphyrinatozinc(II)-conjugated 2,2':6',6"-terpyridine (1) in which the tpy domain enables the molecule to act as a metalloligand. The synthetic route to 1 has been optimized, the importance of selecting a particular sequence of synthetic steps will be discussed. Three homoleptic complexes have been prepared, [Zn(1)₂]²⁺, [Fe(1)₂]²⁺ and [Ru(1)₂]²⁺, and have been isolated as the hexafluoridophosphate salts. Spectroelectrochemical measurements have been performed and the spectral changes ascribed to redox processes are partitioned on either the porphyrin or the terpyridine units. Compound 1 undergoes a reversible one-electron oxidation/reduction. The removal/gain of a second electron leads to a further irreversible chemical transformation. For the homoleptic [M(1)₂]²⁺ complexes, a suitable potential can be chosen at which both the oxidation and the reduction of the {ZnTPP} core are reversible. When the homoleptic complex contains a redox active metal such as Fe or Ru, spectroelectrochemistry has been used to investigate the metal to ligand charge transfer (MLCT) transition. The latter is sensitive to the oxidation state of the metal, and electrochemical oxidation of the metal center suppresses it. Detailed spectroelectrochemical studies will be presented.

Keywords: homoleptic complexes, spectroelectrochemistry, tetraphenylporphyrinatozinc(II), 2, 2':6', 6"-terpyridine

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Authors: Chih Yuan Chen, Chien Chon Chen, Jin-Shyong Lin

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The microstructure characterization of tempered nanocrystalline bainitic steel is investigated in the present study. It is found that two types of plastic relaxation, dislocation debris and nanotwin, occurs in the displacive transformation due to relatively low transformation temperature and high carbon content. Because most carbon atoms trap in the dislocation, high dislocation density can be sustained during the tempering process. More carbides only can be found in the high tempered temperature due to intense recovery progression.

Keywords: nanostructure bainitic steel, tempered, TEM, nano-twin, dislocation debris, accommodation

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Authors: A. Zapata, Orlando Arroyo, R. Bonett

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Over the last two decades, the growing demand for housing in Latin American countries has led to the development of construction projects based on low and medium-rise buildings with thin reinforced concrete walls. This system, known as Thin Walls Reinforced Concrete Buildings (TWRCB), uses walls with thicknesses from 100 to 150 millimetres, with flexural reinforcement formed by welded wire mesh (WWM) with diameters between 5 and 7 millimetres, arranged in one or two layers. These walls often have irregular structural configurations, including combinations of rectangular shapes. Experimental and numerical research conducted in regions where this structural system is commonplace indicates inherent weaknesses, such as limited ductility due to the WWM reinforcement and thin element dimensions. Because of its complexity, numerical analyses have relied on two-dimensional models that don't explicitly account for the floor system, even though it plays a crucial role in distributing seismic forces among the resilient elements. Nonetheless, the numerical analyses assume a rigid diaphragm hypothesis. For this purpose, two study cases of buildings were selected, low-rise and mid-rise characteristics of TWRCB in Colombia. The buildings were analyzed in Opensees using the MVLEM-3D for walls and shell elements to simulate the slabs to involve the effect of coupling diaphragm in the nonlinear behaviour. Three cases are considered: a) models without a slab, b) models with rigid slabs, and c) models with flexible slabs. An incremental static (pushover) and nonlinear dynamic analyses were carried out using a set of 44 far-field ground motions of the FEMA P-695, scaled to 1.0 and 1.5 factors to consider the probability of collapse for the design base earthquake (DBE) and the maximum considered earthquake (MCE) for the model, according to the location sites and hazard zone of the archetypes in the Colombian NSR-10. Shear base capacity, maximum displacement at the roof, walls shear base individual demands and probabilities of collapse were calculated, to evaluate the effect of absence, rigid and flexible slabs in the nonlinear behaviour of the archetype buildings. The pushover results show that the building exhibits an overstrength between 1.1 to 2 when the slab is considered explicitly and depends on the structural walls plan configuration; additionally, the nonlinear behaviour considering no slab is more conservative than if the slab is represented. Include the flexible slab in the analysis remarks the importance to consider the slab contribution in the shear forces distribution between structural elements according to design resistance and rigidity. The dynamic analysis revealed that including the slab reduces the collapse probability of this system due to have lower displacements and deformations, enhancing the safety of residents and the seismic performance. The strategy of including the slab in modelling is important to capture the real effect on the distribution shear forces in walls due to coupling to estimate the correct nonlinear behaviour in this system and the adequate distribution to proportionate the correct resistance and rigidity of the elements in the design to reduce the possibility of damage to the elements during an earthquake.

Keywords: thin wall reinforced concrete buildings, coupling slab, rigid diaphragm, flexible diaphragm

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Authors: Ping Xu, Gregory T. Golm, Guanghan (Frank) Liu

Abstract:

In the presence of competing events, traditional survival analysis may not be appropriate and can result in biased estimates, as it assumes independence between competing events and the event of interest. Instead, competing risk analysis should be considered to correctly estimate the survival probability of the event of interest and the hazard ratio between treatment groups. The COVID-19 pandemic has provided a potential source of competing risks in clinical trials, as participants in trials may experienceCOVID-related competing events before the occurrence of the event of interest, for instance, death due to COVID-19, which can affect the incidence rate of the event of interest. We have performed simulation studies to compare multiple competing risk analysis models, including the cumulative incidence function, the sub-distribution hazard function, and the cause-specific hazard function, to the traditional survival analysis model under various scenarios. We also provide a general recommendation on conducting competing risk analysis in randomized clinical trials during the era of the COVID-19 pandemic based on the extensive simulation results.

Keywords: competing risk, survival analysis, simulations, randomized clinical trial, COVID-19 pandemic

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Authors: M. Tahir Demirsel, Mustafa Atsan

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Many elements of the environment in which businesses operate today leave them faced with unexpected threats and opportunities. One of the major threats is business crisis. The crisis is a state of affairs in a business wherein the executives must take urgent and unprecedented action to try to save the business from failure. In order to survive in the business environment, organizations should be prepared for the potential crises. Technological developments, uncertainty in the market and the intense competition increase the probability of encountering a crisis for organizations. Therefore, by acting proactively to predict crisis, to detect signals of crisis and be prepared for a crisis by taking necessary precautions accordingly, is of great importance for businesses. In this context, the objective of this study is to reveal that how much organizations are proactive and can predict the future crises and investigate whether they are prepared for possible crises or not. The research was conducted on 222 business executives in one of the major industrial zones of Turkey, Konya Organized Industrial Zone (KOS). The findings are analyzed through descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis. According to the results, it has been observed that organizations cannot predict the crisis signals and are not prepared for potential crises.

Keywords: crisis preparedness, crisis signals, industrial organizations, proactivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 516

Authors: Moustafa Osman

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Modeling of air pollutants from the accidental release is performed for quantifying the impact of industrial facilities into the ambient air. The mathematical methods are requiring for the prediction of the accidental scenario in probability of failure-safe mode and analysis consequences to quantify the environmental damage upon human health. The initial statement of mitigation plan is supporting implementation during production and maintenance periods. In a number of mathematical methods, the flow rate at which gaseous and liquid pollutants might be accidentally released is determined from various types in term of point, line and area sources. These emissions are integrated meteorological conditions in simplified stability parameters to compare dispersion coefficients from non-continuous air pollution plumes. The differences are reflected in concentrations levels and greenhouse effect to transport the parcel load in both urban and rural areas. This research reveals that the elevation effect nearby buildings with other structure is higher 5 times more than open terrains. These results are agreed with Sutton suggestion for dispersion coefficients in different stability classes.

Keywords: air pollutants, dispersion modeling, GIS, health effect, urban planning

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Authors: I. Wiemann, N. Weiß, E. Schlücker, M. Wensing, A. Kölpin

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Chemical storage of hydrogen by liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHC) is a very promising alternative to compression or cryogenics. These carriers have high energy density and allow at the same time efficient and safe storage of hydrogen under ambient conditions and without leakage losses. Another benefit of LOHC is the possibility to transport it using already available infrastructure for transport of fossil fuels. Efficient use of LOHC is related to a precise process control, which requires a number of sensors in order to measure all relevant process parameters, for example, to measure the level of hydrogen loading of the carrier. The degree of loading is relevant for the energy content of the storage carrier and represents simultaneously the modification in chemical structure of the carrier molecules. This variation can be detected in different physical properties like viscosity, permittivity or density. Thereby, each degree of loading corresponds to different viscosity values. Conventional measurements currently use invasive viscosity measurements or near-line measurements to obtain quantitative information. Avoiding invasive measurements has several severe advantages. Efforts are currently taken to provide a precise, non-invasive measurement method with equal or higher precision of the obtained results. This study investigates a method for determination of the viscosity of LOHC. Since the viscosity can retroactively derived from the degree of loading, permittivity is a target parameter as it is a suitable for determining the hydrogenation degree. This research analyses the influence of common physical properties on permittivity. The permittivity measurement system is based on a cavity resonator, an electromagnetic resonant structure, whose resonation frequency depends on its dimensions as well as the permittivity of the medium inside. For known resonator dimensions, the resonation frequency directly characterizes the permittivity. In order to determine the dependency of the permittivity on temperature and flow velocity, an experimental setup with heating device and flow test bench was designed. By varying temperature in the range of 293,15 K -393,15 K and flow velocity up to 140 mm/s, corresponding changes in the resonation frequency were measured in the hundredths of the GHz range.

Keywords: liquid organic hydrogen carriers, measurement, permittivity, viscosity., temperature, flow process

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Authors: Benyamina Imane, Benalioua Bahia, Mansour Meriem, Bentouami Abdelhadi

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The objective of this study is to use a synthetic route of the layered double hydroxide as a method of zinc oxide by doping a transition metal. The material is heat-treated at different temperatures then tested on the photo-fading of acid dye indigo carmine under visible radiation compared with ZnO. The material having a better efficacy was characterized by XRD and thereafter SEM. The result of XRD untreated Bi-Zn-LDH material thermally revealed peaks characteristic lamellar materials. Indeed, the lamellar morphology is very visible, observed by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Furthermore, the lamellar character partially disappears when the material is treated at 550 °C in a muffle furnace. Thus obtained, a zinc oxide doped with bismuth confirmed by XRD. The photocatalytic efficiency of Bi-ZnO in a visible light of 500 W at 114,6 µw/cm2 as maximum of irradiance was tested on photo-bleaching of an indigoid dye in comparison with the commercial ZnO. Indeed, a complete discoloration of indigo carmine solution of 16 mg / L was obtained after 40 and 120 minutes of irradiation in the presence of Bi-ZnO and ZnO respectively.

Keywords: photocatalysis, Bi-ZnO-LDH, doping, ZnO

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Authors: Svetlana Petlitckaia, Toussaint Barboni, Paul-Antoine Santoni

Abstract:

Plastic is a revolutionary material. However, the pollution caused by plastics damages the environment, human health and the economy of different countries. It is important to find new ways to recycle and reuse plastic material. The use of waste materials as filler and as a matrix for composite materials is receiving increasing attention as an approach to increasing the economic value of streams. In this study, a new composite material based on high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and polypropylene (PP) wastes from bottle caps and cork powder from unused cork (virgin cork), which has a high capacity for thermal insulation, was developed. The composites were prepared with virgin and modified cork. The composite materials were obtained through twin-screw extrusion and injection molding. The composites were produced with proportions of 0 %, 5 %, 10 %, 15 %, and 20 % of cork powder in a polymer matrix with and without coupling agent and flame retardant. These composites were investigated in terms of mechanical, structural and thermal properties. The effect of cork fraction, particle size and the use of flame retardant on the properties of composites were investigated. The properties of samples elaborated with the polymer and the cork were compared to them with the coupling agent and commercial flame retardant. It was observed that the morphology of HDPE/cork and PP/cork composites revealed good distribution and dispersion of cork particles without agglomeration. The results showed that the addition of cork powder in the polymer matrix reduced the density of the composites. However, the incorporation of natural additives doesn’t have a significant effect on water adsorption. Regarding the mechanical properties, the value of tensile strength decreases with the addition of cork powder, ranging from 30 MPa to 19 MPa for PP composites and from 19 MPa to 17 MPa for HDPE composites. The value of thermal conductivity of composites HDPE/cork and PP/ cork is about 0.230 W/mK and 0.170 W/mK, respectively. Evaluation of the flammability of the composites was performed using a cone calorimeter. The results of thermal analysis and fire tests show that it is important to add flame retardants to improve fire resistance. The samples elaborated with the coupling agent and flame retardant have better mechanical properties and fire resistance. The feasibility of the composites based on cork and PP and HDPE wastes opens new ways of valorizing plastic waste and virgin cork. The formulation of composite materials must be optimized.

Keywords: composite materials, cork and polymer wastes, flammability, modificated cork

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Authors: Muhammad Waseem Akram

Abstract:

The current study attempts to analyze the impact of business constraints on the growth potential and performance of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in the electrical industry of Pakistan. Primary data have been utilized for the study collected from the electrical industry cluster in Sargodha, Pakistan. OLS regression is used to assess the impact of business constraints on the performance of SMEs by controlling the effect of Technology Level, Innovations, and Firm Size. To associate business constraints with the growth potential of SMEs, the study utilized Tetrachoric Correlation and Logistic Regression. Findings reveal that all the business constraints negatively affect the performance of SMEs in the electrical industry except Political Instability. Results of Tetrachoric Correlation show that all the business constraints are negatively correlated with the growth potential of SMEs. Logistic Regression results show that Energy Constraint, Inflation and Price Instability, and Bad Business Practices, all three business constraints cause to reduce the probability of income growth in sample SMEs.

Keywords: SMEs, business constraints, performance, growth potential

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