Search results for: data maturity

Authors: Julia Baker

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Development plays a major role in stopping biodiversity loss. But the ‘silo species’ protection of legislation (where certain species are protected while many are not) means that development can be ‘legally compliant’ and result in biodiversity loss. ‘Net Gain’ (NG) policies can help overcome this by making it an absolute requirement that development causes no overall loss of biodiversity and brings a benefit. However, offsetting biodiversity losses in one location with gains elsewhere is controversial because people suspect ‘offsetting’ to be an easy way for developers to buy their way out of conservation requirements. Yet the good practice principles (GPP) of offsetting provide several advantages over existing legislation for protecting biodiversity from development. This presentation describes the learning from implementing NG approaches based on GPP. It regards major upgrades of the UK’s transport networks, which involved removing vegetation in order to construct and safely operate new infrastructure. While low-lying habitats were retained, trees and other habitats disrupting the running or safety of transport networks could not. Consequently, achieving NG within the transport corridor was not possible and offsetting was required. The first ‘lessons learnt’ were on obtaining a commitment from business leaders to go beyond legislative requirements and deliver NG, and on the institutional change necessary to embed GPP within daily operations. These issues can only be addressed when the challenges that biodiversity poses for business are overcome. These challenges included: biodiversity cannot be measured easily unlike other sustainability factors like carbon and water that have metrics for target-setting and measuring progress; and, the mindset that biodiversity costs money and does not generate cash in return, which is the opposite of carbon or waste for example, where people can see how ‘sustainability’ actions save money. The challenges were overcome by presenting the GPP of NG as a cost-efficient solution to specific, critical risks facing the business that also boost industry recognition, and by using government-issued NG metrics to develop business-specific toolkits charting their NG progress whilst ensuring that NG decision-making was based on rich ecological data. An institutional change was best achieved by supporting, mentoring and training sustainability/environmental managers for these ‘frontline’ staff to embed GPP within the business. The second learning was from implementing the GPP where business partnered with local governments, wildlife groups and land owners to support their priorities for nature conservation, and where these partners had a say in decisions about where and how best to achieve NG. From this inclusive approach, offsetting contributed towards conservation priorities when all collaborated to manage trade-offs between: -Delivering ecologically equivalent offsets or compensating for losses of one type of biodiversity by providing another. -Achieving NG locally to the development whilst contributing towards national conservation priorities through landscape-level planning. -Not just protecting the extent and condition of existing biodiversity but ‘doing more’. -The multi-sector collaborations identified practical, workable solutions to ‘in perpetuity’. But key was strengthening linkages between biodiversity measures implemented for development and conservation work undertaken by local organizations so that developers support NG initiatives that really count.

Keywords: biodiversity offsetting, development, nature conservation planning, net gain

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Authors: Sarah Hazelwood, Janice Hay

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Methoxyflurane is an inhaled analgesic administered via a disposable inhaler, which has been used in Australia for 40 years for the management of pain in children & adults. However, there is a lack of data for methoxyflurane as a frontline analgesic medication within the emergency department (ED). This study will investigate the usefulness of methoxyflurane in a private inner-city ED. The study concluded that the inclusion of all key stakeholders in the prescribing, administering & use of this new process led to comprehensive uptake & vastly positive outcomes for consumer & health professionals. Method: A 12-week prospective pilot study was completed utilizing patients presenting to the ED in pain (numeric pain rating score > 4) that fit the requirement of methoxyflurane use (as outlined in the Australian Prescriber information package). Nurses completed a formatted spreadsheet for each interaction where methoxyflurane was used. Patient demographics, day, time, initial numeric pain score, analgesic response time, the reason for use, staff concern (free text), & patient feedback (free text), & discharge time was documented. When clinical concern was raised, the researcher retrieved & reviewed patient notes. Results: 140 methoxyflurane inhalers were used. 60% of patients were 31 years of age & over (n=82) with 16% aged 70+. The gender split; 51% male: 49% female. Trauma-related pain (57%) saw the highest use of administration, with the evening hours (1500-2259) seeing the greatest numbers used (39%). Tuesday, Thursday & Sunday shared the highest daily use throughout the study. A minimum numerical pain score of 4/10 (n=13, 9%), with the ranges of 5 - 7/10 (moderate pain) being given by almost 50% of patients. Only 3 instances of pain scores increased post use of methoxyflurane (all other entries showed pain score < initial rating). Patients & staff noted obvious analgesic response within 3 minutes (n= 96, 81%, of administration). Nurses documented a change in patient vital signs for 4 of the 15 patient-related concerns; the remaining concerns were due to “gagging” on the taste, or “having a coughing episode”; one patient tried to leave the department before the procedure was attended (very euphoric state). Upon review of the staff concerns – no adverse events occurred & return to therapeutic vitals occurred within 10 minutes. Length of stay for patients was compared with similar presentations (such as dislocated shoulder or ankle fracture) & saw an average 40-minute decrease in time to discharge. Methoxyflurane treatment was rated “positively” by > 80% of patients – with remaining feedback related to mild & transient concerns. Staff similarly noted a positive response to methoxyflurane as an analgesic & as an added tool for frontline analgesic purposes. Conclusion: Methoxyflurane should be used on suitable patient presentations requiring immediate, short term pain relief. As a highly portable, non-narcotic avenue to treat pain this study showed obvious therapeutic benefit, positive feedback, & a shorter length of stay in the ED. By partnering with key stake holders, this study determined methoxyflurane use decreased work load, decreased wait time to analgesia, and increased patient satisfaction.

Keywords: analgesia, benefits, emergency, methoxyflurane

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Authors: Rhiannon Barker, Gregory Hartwell, Matt Egan, Karen Lock

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Background: Evidence suggests that mental health (MH) issues in children and young people (CYP) in the UK are on the rise. Of particular concern is data that indicates that the pandemic, together with the impact of school closures, have accentuated already pronounced inequalities; children from families on low incomes or from black and minority ethnic groups are reportedly more likely to have been adversely impacted. This study aimed to help identify specific support which may facilitate the building of a positive school climate and protect student mental health, particularly in the wake of school closures following the pandemic. It has important implications for integrated working between schools and statutory health services. Methods: The research comprised of three parts; scoping, case studies, and a stakeholder workshop to explore and consolidate results. The scoping phase included a literature review alongside interviews with a range of stakeholders from government, academia, and the third sector. Case studies were then conducted in two London state schools. Results: Our research identified how student MH was being impacted by a range of factors located at different system levels, both internal to the school and in the wider community. School climate, relating both to a shared system of beliefs and values, as well as broader factors including style of leadership, teaching, discipline, safety, and relationships -all played a role in the experience of school life and, consequently, the MH of both students and staff. Participants highlighted the importance of a whole school approach and ensuring that support for student MH was not separated from academic achievement, as well as the importance of identifying and applying universal measuring systems to establish levels of MH need. Our findings suggest that a school’s climate is influenced by the style and strength of its leadership, while this school climate - together with mechanisms put in place to respond to MH needs (both statutory and non-statutory) - plays a key role in supporting student MH. Implications: Schools in England have a responsibility to decide on the nature of MH support provided for their students, and there is no requirement for them to report centrally on the form this provision takes. The reality on the ground, as our study suggests, is that MH provision varies significantly between schools, particularly in relation to ‘lower’ levels of need which are not covered by statutory requirements. A valid concern may be that in the huge raft of possible options schools have to support CYP wellbeing, too much is left to chance. Work to support schools in rebuilding their cultures post-lockdowns must include the means to identify and promote appropriate tools and techniques to facilitate regular measurement of student MH. This will help establish both the scale of the problem and monitor the effectiveness of the response. A strong vision from a school’s leadership team that emphasises the importance of student wellbeing, running alongside (but not overshadowed by) academic attainment, should help shape a school climate to promote beneficial MH outcomes. The sector should also be provided with support to improve the consistency and efficacy of MH provision in schools across the country.

Keywords: mental health, schools, young people, whole-school culture

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Authors: Prashant Gupta

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Throughout India, temples have served as cultural centers, commerce hubs, art galleries, educational institutions, and social centers in addition to being places of worship since centuries. Across the country, there are over two million temples, which are crucial economic hubs, attracting devotees and tourists worldwide. In India, we have 53 temples per each 100,000 Indians. As per NSSO survey, the temple economy is worth about $40 billion and 2.32 per cent of GDP based on major temple’s survey, which only includes formal sector. It could be much larger as an actual estimation has not been done yet. In India, 43.1% of total economy represents informal sector. Over 10 billion domestic tourists visit to new destinations every year within India. Even 20 per cent of the 90 million foreign tourists visited Madurai and Mahabalipuram temples which became the most visited tourist spot in 2022. Recently the current central government in power have started revitalizing the ancient Indian civilization by reconstructing and beautifying the major temples of India i.e., Kashi Vishwanath Corridor, Mahakaleshwara Temple, Kedarnath, Ayodhya etc. The reason researcher chose Kashi as a case study because it is known as a Spiritual Capital of India, which is also the abode for the spread of Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism and Sikkism, which are core Sanatan Dharmic practices. 17,800 Million INR Amount was spend to redevelop Kashi Vishwanath Corridor since 2019. RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 1. To assess historical contribution of temples in socio economic development and revival of Indic Civilization. 2. To examine the role of temples redevelopment for informal sector businesses. 3. To identify the sub-sectors of informal sector businesses 4. To identify products and services of informal businesses for investigation of marketing strategies and business development. PROPOSED METHODS AND PROCEDURES This study will follow a mixed approach, employing both qualitative and quantitative methods of research. To conduct the study, data will be collected from 500 informal business owners through structured questionnaire and interview instruments. The informal business owners will be selected using a systematic random sampling technique. In addition, documents from government offices of the last 10 years of tax collection will be reviewed to substantiate the study. To analyze the study, descriptive and econometric analysis techniques will be employed. EXPECTED CONTRIBUTION OF THE PROPOSED STUDY By studying the contribution of temple re-development on informal business creation and growth, the study will be beneficial to the informal business owners and the government. For the government, scientific and empirical evidence on the contribution of temple re-development for informal business creation and growth to give evidence the study will give based infrastructural development and boosting tax collection. For informal businesses, the study will give them a detailed insight on the nature of their business and the possible future growth potential of their business, and the alternative products and services supplying to their customers in the future. Studying informal businesses will help to identify the key products and services which are majorly profitable and possess potential to multiply and grow through correct product marketing strategies and business development.

Keywords: business development, informal sector businesses, services and products marketing, temple economics

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Authors: M. Eickermann, F. Ronellenfitsch, J. Junk

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Oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) is one of the most important crops throughout Europe, but pressure due to pest insects and pathogens can reduce yield amount substantially. Therefore, the usage of pesticide applications is outstanding in this crop. In addition, climate change effects can interact with phenology of the host plant and their pests and can apply additional pressure on the yield. Next to the pollen beetle, Meligethes aeneus L., the seed-damaging pest insects, cabbage seed weevil (Ceutorhynchus obstrictus Marsham) and the brassica pod midge (Dasineura brassicae Winn.) are of main economic impact to the yield. While females of C. obstrictus are infesting oilseed rape by depositing single eggs into young pods, the females of D. brassicae are using this local damage in the pod for their own oviposition, while depositing batches of 20-30 eggs. Without a former infestation by the cabbage seed weevil, a significant yield reduction by the brassica pod midge can be denied. Based on long-term, multisided field experiments, a comprehensive data-set on pest migration to crops of B. napus has been built up in the last ten years. Five observational test sides, situated in different climatic regions in Luxembourg were controlled between February until the end of May twice a week. Pest migration was recorded by using yellow water pan-traps. Caught insects were identified in the laboratory according to species specific identification keys. By a combination of pest observations and corresponding meteorological observations, the set-up of models to predict the migration periods of the seed-damaging pests was possible. This approach is the basis for a computer-based decision support tool, to assist the farmer in identifying the appropriate time point of pesticide application. In addition, the derived algorithms of that decision support tool can be combined with climate change projections in order to assess the future potential threat caused by the seed-damaging pest species. Regional climate change effects for Luxembourg have been intensively studied in recent years. Significant changes to wetter winters and drier summers, as well as a prolongation of the vegetation period mainly caused by higher spring temperature, have also been reported. We used the COSMO-CLM model to perform a time slice experiment for Luxembourg with a spatial resolution of 1.3 km. Three ten year time slices were calculated: The reference time span (1991-2000), the near (2041-2050) and the far future (2091-2100). Our results projected a significant shift of pest migration to an earlier onset of the year. In addition, a prolongation of the possible migration period could be observed. Because D. brassiace is depending on the former oviposition activity by C. obstrictus to infest its host plant successfully, the future dependencies of both pest species will be assessed. Based on this approach the future risk potential of both seed-damaging pests is calculated and the status as pest species is characterized.

Keywords: CORDEX projections, decision support tool, Brassica napus, pests

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Authors: Benjamin Kaufmann, Michael Hofstätter, Nadine Raidl, Peter Supancic

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ZnO varistors are the leading overvoltage protection elements in today’s electronic industry. Their highly non-linear current-voltage characteristics, very fast response times, good reliability and attractive cost of production are unique in this field. There are challenges and questions unsolved. Especially, the urge to create even smaller, versatile and reliable parts, that fit industry’s demands, brings manufacturers to the limits of their abilities. Although, the varistor effect of sintered ZnO is known since the 1960’s, and a lot of work was done on this field to explain the sudden exponential increase of conductivity, the strict dependency on sinter parameters, as well as the influence of the complex microstructure, is not sufficiently understood. For further enhancement and down-scaling of varistors, a better understanding of the microscopic processes is needed. This work attempts a microscopic approach to investigate ZnO varistor performance. In order to cope with the polycrystalline varistor ceramic and in order to account for all possible current paths through the material, a preferably realistic model of the microstructure was set up in the form of three-dimensional networks where every grain has a constant electric potential, and voltage drop occurs only at the grain boundaries. The electro-thermal workload, depending on different grain size distributions, was investigated as well as the influence of the metal-semiconductor contact between the electrodes and the ZnO grains. A number of experimental methods are used, firstly, to feed the simulations with realistic parameters and, secondly, to verify the obtained results. These methods are: a micro 4-point probes method system (M4PPS) to investigate the current-voltage characteristics between single ZnO grains and between ZnO grains and the metal electrode inside the varistor, micro lock-in infrared thermography (MLIRT) to detect current paths, electron back scattering diffraction and piezoresponse force microscopy to determine grain orientations, atom probe to determine atomic substituents, Kelvin probe force microscopy for investigating grain surface potentials. The simulations showed that, within a critical voltage range, the current flow is localized along paths which represent only a tiny part of the available volume. This effect could be observed via MLIRT. Furthermore, the simulations exhibit that the electric power density, which is inversely proportional to the number of active current paths, since this number determines the electrical active volume, is dependent on the grain size distribution. M4PPS measurements showed that the electrode-grain contacts behave like Schottky diodes and are crucial for asymmetric current path development. Furthermore, evaluation of actual data suggests that current flow is influenced by grain orientations. The present results deepen the knowledge of influencing microscopic factors on ZnO varistor performance and can give some recommendations on fabrication for obtaining more reliable ZnO varistors.

Keywords: metal-semiconductor contact, Schottky diode, varistor, zinc oxide

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Authors: Delphine Ribes Lemay, Valentine Bernasconi, André Andrade, Lara DéFayes, Mathieu Salzmann, FréDéRic Kaplan, Nicolas Henchoz

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Digitization and preservation of large heritage induce high maintenance costs to keep up with the technical standards and ensure sustainable access. Creating impactful usage is instrumental to justify the resources for long-term preservation. The Museum für Gestaltung of Zurich holds one of the biggest poster collections of the world from which 52’000 were digitised. In the process of building a digital installation to valorize the collection, one objective was to develop an algorithm capable of predicting the next poster to show according to the ones already displayed. The work presented here describes the steps to build an algorithm able to automatically create sequences of posters reflecting associations performed by curator and professional designers. The exposed challenge finds similarities with the domain of song playlist algorithms. Recently, artificial intelligence techniques and more specifically, deep-learning algorithms have been used to facilitate their generations. Promising results were found thanks to Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) trained on manually generated playlist and paired with clusters of extracted features from songs. We used the same principles to create the proposed algorithm but applied to a challenging medium, posters. First, a convolutional autoencoder was trained to extract features of the posters. The 52’000 digital posters were used as a training set. Poster features were then clustered. Next, an RNN learned to predict the next cluster according to the previous ones. RNN training set was composed of poster sequences extracted from a collection of books from the Gestaltung Museum of Zurich dedicated to displaying posters. Finally, within the predicted cluster, the poster with the best proximity compared to the previous poster is selected. The mean square distance between features of posters was used to compute the proximity. To validate the predictive model, we compared sequences of 15 posters produced by our model to randomly and manually generated sequences. Manual sequences were created by a professional graphic designer. We asked 21 participants working as professional graphic designers to sort the sequences from the one with the strongest graphic line to the one with the weakest and to motivate their answer with a short description. The sequences produced by the designer were ranked first 60%, second 25% and third 15% of the time. The sequences produced by our predictive model were ranked first 25%, second 45% and third 30% of the time. The sequences produced randomly were ranked first 15%, second 29%, and third 55% of the time. Compared to designer sequences, and as reported by participants, model and random sequences lacked thematic continuity. According to the results, the proposed model is able to generate better poster sequencing compared to random sampling. Eventually, our algorithm is sometimes able to outperform a professional designer. As a next step, the proposed algorithm should include a possibility to create sequences according to a selected theme. To conclude, this work shows the potentiality of artificial intelligence techniques to learn from existing content and provide a tool to curate large sets of data, with a permanent renewal of the presented content.

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Digital Humanities, serendipity, design research

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Authors: Lamin B Ceesay, Cecilia Rossignoli

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Inter-organizational collaboration is a growing phenomenon in both research and practice. The partnership between organizations enables firms to leverage external resources, experiences, and technology that lie with other firms. This collaborative practice is a source of improved business model performance, technological advancement, and increased competitive advantage for firms. However, the competitive intents, and even diverse institutional logics of firms, make inter-firm innovation-based partnership even more complex, and its governance more challenging. The purpose of this paper is to present a systematic review of research linking the inter-organizational relationship of firms with their innovation practice and specify the different project management issues and gaps addressed in previous research. To do this, we employed a systematic review of the literature on inter-organizational innovation using two complementary scholarly databases - ScienceDirect and Web of Science (WoS). Article scoping relies on the combination of keywords based on similar terms used in the literature:(1) inter-organizational relationship, (2) business network, (3) inter-firm project, and (4) innovation network. These searches were conducted in the title, abstract, and keywords of conceptual and empirical research papers done in English. Our search covers between 2010 to 2019. We applied several exclusion criteria including Papers published outside the years under the review, papers in a language other than English, papers neither listed in WoS nor ScienceDirect and papers that are not sharply related to the inter-organizational innovation-based partnership were removed. After all relevant search criteria were applied, a final list of 84 papers constitutes the data for this review. Our review revealed an increasing evolution of inter-organizational relationship research during the period under the review. The descriptive analysis of papers according to Journal outlets finds that International Journal of Project Management (IJPM), Journal of Industrial Marketing, Journal of Business Research (JBR), etc. are the leading journal outlets for research in the inter-organizational innovation project. The review also finds that Qualitative methods and quantitative approaches respectively are the leading research methods adopted by scholars in the field. However, literature review and conceptual papers constitute the least in the field. During the content analysis of the selected papers, we read the content of each paper and found that the selected papers try to address one of the three phenomena in inter-organizational innovation research: (1) project antecedents; (2) project management and (3) project performance outcomes. We found that these categories are not mutually exclusive, but rather interdependent. This categorization also helped us to organize the fragmented literature in the field. While a significant percentage of the literature discussed project management issues, we found fewer extant literature on project antecedents and performance. As a result of this, we organized the future research agenda addressed in several papers by linking them with the under-researched themes in the field, thus providing great potential to advance future research agenda especially, in the under-researched themes in the field. Finally, our paper reveals that research on inter-organizational innovation project is generally fragmented which hinders a better understanding of the field. Thus, this paper contributes to the understanding of the field by organizing and discussing the extant literature to advance the theory and application of inter-organizational relationship.

Keywords: inter-organizational relationship, inter-firm collaboration, innovation projects, project management, systematic review

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Authors: Roshanak Afrakhteh, Abdolrasoul Salman Mahini, Mahdi Motagh, Hamidreza Kamyab

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Urban Heat Islands (UHIs) are distinctive urban areas characterized by densely populated central cores surrounded by less densely populated peripheral lands. These areas experience elevated temperatures, primarily due to impermeable surfaces and specific land use patterns. The consequences of these temperature variations are far-reaching, impacting the environment and society negatively, leading to increased energy consumption, air pollution, and public health concerns. This paper emphasizes the need for simplified approaches to comprehend UHI temperature dynamics and explains how urban development patterns contribute to land surface temperature variation. To illustrate this relationship, the study focuses on the Guilan Plain, utilizing techniques like principal component analysis and generalized additive models. The research centered on mapping land use and land surface temperature in the low-lying area of Guilan province. Satellite data from Landsat sensors for three different time periods (2002, 2012, and 2021) were employed. Using eCognition software, a spatial unit known as a "city block" was utilized through object-based analysis. The study also applied the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) method to estimate land surface radiance. Predictive variables for urban land surface temperature within residential city blocks were identified categorized as intrinsic (related to the block's structure) and neighboring (related to adjacent blocks) variables. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to select significant variables, and a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) approach, implemented using R's mgcv package, modeled the relationship between urban land surface temperature and predictor variables.Notable findings included variations in urban temperature across different years attributed to environmental and climatic factors. Block size, shared boundary, mother polygon area, and perimeter-to-area ratio were identified as main variables for the generalized additive regression model. This model showed non-linear relationships, with block size, shared boundary, and mother polygon area positively correlated with temperature, while the perimeter-to-area ratio displayed a negative trend. The discussion highlights the challenges of predicting urban surface temperature and the significance of block size in determining urban temperature patterns. It also underscores the importance of spatial configuration and unit structure in shaping urban temperature patterns. In conclusion, this study contributes to the growing body of research on the connection between land use patterns and urban surface temperature. Block size, along with block dispersion and aggregation, emerged as key factors influencing urban surface temperature in residential areas. The proposed methodology enhances our understanding of parameter significance in shaping urban temperature patterns across various regions, particularly in Iran.

Keywords: urban heat island, land surface temperature, LST modeling, GAM, Gilan province

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Authors: Vittorio Astarita, Giuseppe Guido, Vincenzo Pasquale Giofre, Alessandro Vitale

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Traffic microsimulation has been used extensively to evaluate consequences of different traffic planning and control policies in terms of travel time delays, queues, pollutant emissions, and every other common measured performance while at the same time traffic safety has not been considered in common traffic microsimulation packages as a measure of performance for different traffic scenarios. Vehicle conflict techniques that were introduced at intersections in the early traffic researches carried out at the General Motor laboratory in the USA and in the Swedish traffic conflict manual have been applied to vehicles trajectories simulated in microscopic traffic simulators. The concept is that microsimulation can be used as a base for calculating the number of conflicts that will define the safety level of a traffic scenario. This allows engineers to identify unsafe road traffic maneuvers and helps in finding the right countermeasures that can improve safety. Unfortunately, most commonly used indicators do not consider conflicts between single vehicles and roadside obstacles and barriers. A great number of vehicle crashes take place with roadside objects or obstacles. Only some recent proposed indicators have been trying to address this issue. This paper introduces a new procedure based on the simulation of potential crash events for the evaluation of safety levels in microsimulation traffic scenarios, which takes into account also potential crashes with roadside objects and barriers. The procedure can be used to define new conflict indicators. The proposed simulation procedure generates with the random perturbation of vehicle trajectories a set of potential crashes which can be evaluated accurately in terms of DeltaV, the energy of the impact, and/or expected number of injuries or casualties. The procedure can also be applied to real trajectories giving birth to new surrogate safety performance indicators, which can be considered as “simulation-based”. The methodology and a specific safety performance indicator are described and applied to a simulated test traffic scenario. Results indicate that the procedure is able to evaluate safety levels both at the intersection level and in the presence of roadside obstacles. The procedure produces results that are expressed in the same unity of measure for both vehicle to vehicle and vehicle to roadside object conflicts. The total energy for a square meter of all generated crash can be used and is shown on the map, for the test network, after the application of a threshold to evidence the most dangerous points. Without any detailed calibration of the microsimulation model and without any calibration of the parameters of the procedure (standard values have been used), it is possible to identify dangerous points. A preliminary sensitivity analysis has shown that results are not dependent on the different energy thresholds and different parameters of the procedure. This paper introduces a specific new procedure and the implementation in the form of a software package that is able to assess road safety, also considering potential conflicts with roadside objects. Some of the principles that are at the base of this specific model are discussed. The procedure can be applied on common microsimulation packages once vehicle trajectories and the positions of roadside barriers and obstacles are known. The procedure has many calibration parameters and research efforts will have to be devoted to make confrontations with real crash data in order to obtain the best parameters that have the potential of giving an accurate evaluation of the risk of any traffic scenario.

Keywords: road safety, traffic, traffic safety, traffic simulation

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Authors: M. Isabel Santos, Ana Breda, Ana Margarida Almeida

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Research on academic abilities of individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) underlines the importance of mathematics interventions. Yet the proposal of digital applications for children and youth with ASD continues to attract little attention, namely, regarding the development of mathematical reasoning, being the use of the digital technologies an area of great interest for individuals with this disorder and its use is certainly a facilitative strategy in the development of their mathematical abilities. The use of digital technologies can be an effective way to create innovative learning opportunities to these students and to develop creative, personalized and constructive environments, where they can develop differentiated abilities. The children with ASD often respond well to learning activities involving information presented visually. In this context, we present the digital Learning Environment on Mathematics for Autistic children (LEMA) that was a research project conducive to a PhD in Multimedia in Education and was developed by the Thematic Line Geometrix, located in the Department of Mathematics, in a collaboration effort with DigiMedia Research Center, of the Department of Communication and Art (University of Aveiro, Portugal). LEMA is a digital mathematical learning environment which activities are dynamically adapted to the user’s profile, towards the development of mathematical abilities of children aged 6–12 years diagnosed with ASD. LEMA has already been evaluated with end-users (both students and teacher’s experts) and based on the analysis of the collected data readjustments were made, enabling the continuous improvement of the prototype, namely considering the integration of universal design for learning (UDL) approaches, which are of most importance in ASD, due to its heterogeneity. The learning strategies incorporated in LEMA are: (i) provide options to custom choice of math activities, according to user’s profile; (ii) integrates simple interfaces with few elements, presenting only the features and content needed for the ongoing task; (iii) uses a simple visual and textual language; (iv) uses of different types of feedbacks (auditory, visual, positive/negative reinforcement, hints with helpful instructions including math concept definitions, solved math activities using split and easier tasks and, finally, the use of videos/animations that show a solution to the proposed activity); (v) provides information in multiple representation, such as text, video, audio and image for better content and vocabulary understanding in order to stimulate, motivate and engage users to mathematical learning, also helping users to focus on content; (vi) avoids using elements that distract or interfere with focus and attention; (vii) provides clear instructions and orientation about tasks to ease the user understanding of the content and the content language, in order to stimulate, motivate and engage the user; and (viii) uses buttons, familiarly icons and contrast between font and background. Since these children may experience little sensory tolerance and may have an impaired motor skill, besides the user to have the possibility to interact with LEMA through the mouse (point and click with a single button), the user has the possibility to interact with LEMA through Kinect device (using simple gesture moves).

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, digital technologies, inclusion, mathematical abilities, mathematical learning activities

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Authors: Rachael Andrews, Viktoria McMillan, Shuaib Nasser, Christopher M. Roberts

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Background and objective: The National Review of Asthma Deaths (NRAD) found that asthma management and care was inadequate in 26% of cases reviewed. Major shortfalls identified were adherence to national guidelines and standards and, particularly, the organisation of care, including supervision and monitoring in primary care, with 70% of cases reviewed having at least one avoidable factor in this area. 5.4 million people in the UK are diagnosed with and actively treated for asthma, and approximately 60,000 are admitted to hospital with acute exacerbations each year. The majority of people with asthma receive management and treatment solely in primary care. This has therefore created concern that many people within the UK are receiving sub-optimal asthma care resulting in unnecessary morbidity and risk of adverse outcome. NRAD concluded that a national asthma audit programme should be established to measure and improve processes, organisation, and outcomes of asthma care. Objective: To develop a primary care dataset enabling extraction of information from GP practices in Wales and providing robust data by which results and lessons could be drawn and drive service development and improvement. Methods: A multidisciplinary group of experts, including general practitioners, primary care organisation representatives, and asthma patients was formed and used as a source of governance and guidance. A review of asthma literature, guidance, and standards took place and was used to identify areas of asthma care which, if improved, would lead to better patient outcomes. Modified Delphi methodology was used to gain consensus from the expert group on which of the areas identified were to be prioritised, and an asthma patient and carer focus group held to seek views and feedback on areas of asthma care that were important to them. Areas of asthma care identified by both groups were mapped to asthma guidelines and standards to inform and develop primary and secondary care datasets covering both adult and pediatric care. Dataset development consisted of expert review and a targeted consultation process in order to seek broad stakeholder views and feedback. Results: Areas of asthma care identified as requiring prioritisation by the National Asthma Audit were: (i) Prescribing, (ii) Asthma diagnosis (iii) Asthma Reviews (iv) Personalised Asthma Action Plans (PAAPs) (v) Primary care follow-up after discharge from hospital (vi) Methodologies and primary care queries were developed to cover each of the areas of poor and variable asthma care identified and the queries designed to extract information directly from electronic patients’ records. Conclusion: This paper describes the methodological approach followed to develop primary care datasets for a National Asthma Audit. It sets out the principles behind the establishment of a National Asthma Audit programme in response to a national asthma mortality review and describes the development activities undertaken. Key process elements included: (i) mapping identified areas of poor and variable asthma care to national guidelines and standards, (ii) early engagement of experts, including clinicians and patients in the process, and (iii) targeted consultation of the queries to provide further insight into measures that were collectable, reproducible and relevant.

Keywords: asthma, primary care, general practice, dataset development

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Authors: Ciaran Friel, Jerry Suls, Mark Butler, Patrick Robles, Samantha Gordon, Frank Vicari, Karina W. Davidson

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Physical activity guidelines focus on increasing moderate-intensity activity for older adults, but adherence to recommendations remains low. This is despite the fact that scientific evidence supports that any increase in physical activity is positively correlated with health benefits. Behavior change techniques (BCTs) have demonstrated effectiveness in reducing sedentary behavior and promoting physical activity. This pilot study uses a Personalized Trials (N-of-1) design to evaluate the efficacy of using four BCTs to promote an increase in low-intensity physical activity (2,000 steps of walking per day) in adults aged 45-75 years old. The 4 BCTs tested were goal setting, action planning, feedback, and self-monitoring. BCTs were tested in random order and delivered by text message prompts requiring participant engagement. The study recruited health system employees in the target age range, without mobility restrictions and demonstrating interest in increasing their daily activity by a minimum of 2,000 steps per day for a minimum of five days per week. Participants were sent a Fitbit® fitness tracker with an established study account and password. Participants were recommended to wear the Fitbit device 24/7 but were required to wear it for a minimum of ten hours per day. Baseline physical activity was measured by Fitbit for two weeks. In the 8-week intervention phase of the study, participants received each of the four BCTs, in random order, for a two-week period. Text message prompts were delivered daily each morning at a consistent time. All prompts required participant engagement to acknowledge receipt of the BCT message. Engagement is dependent upon the BCT message and may have included recording that a detailed plan for walking has been made or confirmed a daily step goal (action planning, goal setting). Additionally, participants may have been directed to a study dashboard to view their step counts or compare themselves to their baseline average step count (self-monitoring, feedback). At the end of each two-week testing interval, participants were asked to complete the Self-Efficacy for Walking Scale (SEW_Dur), a validated measure that assesses the participant’s confidence in walking incremental distances, and a survey measuring their satisfaction with the individual BCT that they tested. At the end of their trial, participants received a personalized summary of their step data in response to each individual BCT. The analysis will examine the novel individual-level heterogeneity of treatment effect made possible by N-of-1 design and pool results across participants to efficiently estimate the overall efficacy of the selected behavioral change techniques in increasing low-intensity walking by 2,000 steps, five days per week. Self-efficacy will be explored as the likely mechanism of action prompting behavior change. This study will inform the providers and demonstrate the feasibility of an N-of-1 study design to effectively promote physical activity as a component of healthy aging.

Keywords: aging, exercise, habit, walking

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Authors: Igor B. Sivaev

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Design of molecular machines is an extraordinary growing and very important area of research that it was recognized by awarding Sauvage, Stoddart and Feringa the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2016 'for the design and synthesis of molecular machines'. Based on the type of motion being performed, molecular machines can be divided into two main types: molecular motors and molecular switches. Molecular switches are molecules or supramolecular complexes having bistability, i.e., the ability to exist in two or more stable forms, among which may be reversible transitions under external influence (heating, lighting, changing the medium acidity, the action of chemicals, exposure to magnetic or electric field). Molecular switches are the main structural element of any molecular electronics devices. Therefore, the design and the study of molecules and supramolecular systems capable of performing mechanical movement is an important and urgent problem of modern chemistry. There is growing interest in molecular switches and other devices of molecular electronics based on transition metal complexes; therefore choice of suitable stable organometallic unit is of great importance. An example of such unit is bis(dicarbollide) complexes of transition metals [3,3’-M(1,2-C₂B₉H₁₁)₂]ⁿ⁻. The control on the ligand rotation in such complexes can be reached by introducing substituents which could provide stabilization of certain rotamers due to specific interactions between the ligands, on the one hand, and which can participate as Lewis bases in complex formation with external metals resulting in a change in the rotation angle of the ligands, on the other hand. A series of isomeric methyl sulfide derivatives of cobalt bis(dicarbollide) complexes containing methyl sulfide substituents at boron atoms in different positions of the pentagonal face of the dicarbollide ligands [8,8’-(MeS)₂-3,3’-Co(1,2-C₂B₉H₁₀)₂]⁻, rac-[4,4’-(MeS)₂-3,3’-Co(1,2-C₂B₉H₁₀)₂]⁻ and meso-[4,7’-(MeS)₂-3,3’-Co(1,2-C₂B₉H₁₀)₂]⁻ were synthesized by the reaction of CoCl₂ with the corresponding methyl sulfide carborane derivatives [10-MeS-7,8-C₂B₉H₁₁)₂]⁻ and [10-MeS-7,8-C₂B₉H₁₁)₂]⁻. In the case of asymmetrically substituted cobalt bis(dicarbollide) complexes the corresponding rac- and meso-isomers were successfully separated by column chromatography as the tetrabutylammonium salts. The compounds obtained were studied by the methods of ¹H, ¹³C, and ¹¹B NMR spectroscopy, single crystal X-ray diffraction, cyclic voltammetry, controlled potential coulometry and quantum chemical calculations. It was found that in the solid state, the transoid- and gauche-conformations of the 8,8’- and 4,4’-isomers are stabilized by four intramolecular CH···S(Me)B hydrogen bonds each one (2.683-2.712 Å and 2.709-2.752 Å, respectively), whereas gauche-conformation of the 4,7’-isomer is stabilized by two intramolecular CH···S hydrogen bonds (2.699-2.711 Å). The existence of the intramolecular CH·S(Me)B hydrogen bonding in solutions was supported by the 1H NMR spectroscopy. These data are in a good agreement with results of the quantum chemical calculations. The corresponding iron and nickel complexes were synthesized as well. The reaction of the methyl sulfide derivatives of cobalt bis(dicarbollide) with various labile transition metal complexes results in rupture of intramolecular hydrogen bonds and complexation of the methyl sulfide groups with external metal. This results in stabilization of other rotational conformation of cobalt bis(dicarbollide) and can be used in design of molecular switches. This work was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (16-13-10331).

Keywords: molecular switches, NMR spectroscopy, single crystal X-ray diffraction, transition metal bis(dicarbollide) complexes, quantum chemical calculations

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Authors: Nabamita Nath, Sanghamitra Sarkar

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Urban development in traditional neighbourhoods of cities is undergoing a sea change due to imposition of irregular development patterns on a predominantly inclusive urban fabric. In recent times, traditional neighbourhoods of Kolkata have experienced irregular urban development which has resulted in transformation of its immediate urban character. The goal is to study and analyse impact of new urban developments within traditional neighbourhoods of Kolkata and establish development guidelines to balance the old with the new. Various cities predominantly in third world countries are also experiencing similar development patterns in their traditional neighbourhoods. Existing literature surveys of development patterns in such neighbourhoods have established 9 major parameters viz. edge, movement, node, landmark, size-density, pattern-grain-texture, open spaces, urban spaces, urban form and views-vistas of the neighbourhood. To evaluate impact of urban development in traditional neighbourhoods of Kolkata, 3 different areas have been chronologically selected based on their settlement patterns. Parameters established through literature surveys have been applied to the selected areas to study and analyse the existing patterns of development. The main sources of this study included extensive on-site surveys, academic archive, census data, organisational records and informational websites. Applying the established parameters, 5 major conclusions were derived. Firstly, it was found that pedestrian friendly neighbourhoods of the city were becoming more car-centric. This has resulted in loss of interactive and social spaces which defined the cultural heritage of Kolkata. Secondly, the urban pattern which was composed of dense and compact fabric is gradually losing its character due to incorporation of new building typologies. Thirdly, the new building typologies include gated communities with private open spaces which is a stark departure from the existing built typology. However, these open spaces have not contributed in creation of inclusive public places for the community which are a significant part of such heritage neighbourhood precincts. Fourthly, commercial zones that primarily developed along major access routes have now infiltrated within these neighbourhoods. Gated communities do not favour formation of on-street commercial activities generating haphazard development patterns. Lastly, individual residential buildings that reflected Indo-saracenic and Neo-gothic architectural styles are converting into multi-storeyed residential apartments. As a result, the axis that created a definite visual identity for a neighbourhood is progressively following an irregular pattern. Thus, uniformity of the old skyline is gradually becoming inconsistent. The major issue currently is threat caused by irregular urban development to heritage zones and buildings of traditional neighbourhoods. Streets, lanes, courtyards, open spaces and buildings of old neighbourhoods imparted a unique cultural identity to the city that is disappearing with emerging urban development patterns. It has been concluded that specific guidelines for urban development should be regulated primarily based on existing urban form of traditional neighbourhoods. Such neighbourhood development strategies should be formulated for various cities of third world countries to control irregular developments thereby balancing heritage and development.

Keywords: heritage, Kolkata, traditional neighbourhood, urban development

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Authors: Taboka Motlhabane, Pradeep Sahoo

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The global demand for cooling has grown exponentially over the past century to meet economic development and social needs, accounting for approximately 10% of the global electricity consumption. As global temperatures continue to rise, the demand for cooling and heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) equipment is set to rise with it. The increased use of HVAC equipment has significantly contributed to the growth of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which aid the climate crisis- one of the biggest challenges faced by the current generation. The need to address emissions caused directly by HVAC equipment and electricity generated to meet the cooling or heating demand is ever more pressing. Currently, developed countries account for the largest cooling and heating demand, however developing countries are anticipated to experience a huge increase in population growth in 10 years, resulting in a shift in energy demand. Developing countries, which are projected to account for nearly 60% of the world's GDP by 2030, are rapidly building infrastructure and economies to meet their growing needs and meet these projections. Cooling, a very energy-intensive process that can account for 20 % to 75% of a building's energy, depending on the building's use. Solar photovoltaic (PV) driven air-conditioning offers a great cost-effective alternative for adoption in both residential and non-residential buildings to offset grid electricity, particularly in countries with high irradiation, such as Botswana. This research paper explores the potential of a grid-connected solar photovoltaic vapor-compression air-conditioning system for the Peter-Smith herbarium at the Okavango Research Institute (ORI) University of Botswana campus in Maun, Botswana. The herbarium plays a critical role in the collection and preservation of botanical data, dating back over 100 years, with pristine collection from the Okavango Delta, a UNESCO world heritage site and serves as a reference and research site. Due to the herbarium’s specific needs, it operates throughout the day and year in an attempt to maintain a constant herbarium temperature of 16°?. The herbarium model studied simulates a variable-air-volume HVAC system with a system rating of 30 kW. Simulation results show that the HVAC system accounts for 68.9% of the building's total electricity at 296 509.60 kWh annually. To offset the grid electricity, a 175.1 kWp nominal power rated PV system requiring 416 modules to match the required power, covering an area of 928 m2 is used to meet the HVAC system annual needs. An economic assessment using PVsyst found that for an installation priced with average solar PV prices in Botswana totalled to be 787 090.00 BWP, with annual operating costs of 30 500 BWP/year. With self-project financing, the project is estimated to have recouped its initial investment within 6.7 years. At an estimated project lifetime of 20 years, the Net Present Value is projected at 1 565 687.00 BWP with a ROI of 198.9%, with 74 070.67 tons of CO2 saved at the end of the project lifetime. This study investigates the performance of the HVAC system to meet the indoor air comfort requirements, the annual PV system performance, and the building model has been simulated using DesignBuilder Software.

Keywords: vapor compression refrigeration, solar cooling, renewable energy, herbarium

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Authors: Hanna Mamo Ergando

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Climate change is already having a severe influence on agriculture, affecting crop yields, the nutritional content of main grains, and livestock productivity. Significant adaptation investments will be necessary to sustain existing yields and enhance production and food quality to fulfill demand. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) provides numerous potentials in this regard, combining a focus on enhancing agricultural output and incomes while also strengthening resilience and responding to climate change. To improve agriculture production and productivity, the Ethiopian government has adopted and implemented a series of strategies, including the recent agricultural cluster farming that is practiced as an effort to change, improve, and transform subsistence farming to modern, productive, market-oriented, and climate-smart approach through farmers production cluster. Besides, greater attention and focus have been given to wheat production and productivity by the government, and wheat is the major crop grown in cluster farming. Therefore, the objective of this assessment was to examine various opportunities and challenges farmers face in a cluster farming system. A qualitative research approach was used to generate primary and secondary data. Respondents were chosen using the purposeful sampling technique. Accordingly, experts from the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Institute, the Ethiopian Agricultural Research Institute, and the Ethiopian Environment Protection Authority were interviewed. The assessment result revealed that farming in clusters is an economically viable technique for sustaining small, resource-limited, and socially disadvantaged farmers' agricultural businesses. The method assists farmers in consolidating their products and delivering them in bulk to save on transportation costs while increasing income. Smallholders' negotiating power has improved as a result of cluster membership, as has knowledge and information spillover. The key challenges, on the other hand, were identified as a lack of timely provision of modern inputs, insufficient access to credit services, conflict of interest in crop selection, and a lack of output market for agro-processing firms. Furthermore, farmers in the cluster farming approach grow wheat year after year without crop rotation or diversification techniques. Mono-cropping has disadvantages because it raises the likelihood of disease and insect outbreaks. This practice may result in long-term consequences, including soil degradation, reduced biodiversity, and economic risk for farmers. Therefore, the government must devote more resources to addressing the issue of environmental sustainability. Farmers' access to complementary services that promote production and marketing efficiencies through infrastructure and institutional services has to be improved. In general, the assessment begins with some hint that leads to a deeper study into the efficiency of the strategy implementation, upholding existing policy, and scaling up good practices in a sustainable and environmentally viable manner.

Keywords: cluster farming, smallholder farmers, wheat, challenges, opportunities

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Authors: Bonnie R. Brammall, Rhonda M. Garad, Helena J. Teede, Cheryce L. Harrison

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Introduction: Reproductive aged women are at high-risk for accelerated weight gain and obesity development, with pregnancy recognised as a critical contributory life phase. Healthy lifestyle interventions during the preconception and antenatal period improve maternal and infant health outcomes. Yet, interventions from preconception through to postpartum and translation and implementation into real-world healthcare settings remain limited. OptimalMe is a randomised, hybrid implementation effectiveness study of evidence-based healthy lifestyle intervention. Here, we report engagement, acceptability of the intervention during preconception, and self-reported behaviour change outcomes as a result of the preconception phase of the intervention. Methods: Reproductive aged women who upgraded their private health insurance to include pregnancy and birth cover, signalling a pregnancy intention, were invited to participate. Women received access to an online portal with preconception health and lifestyle modules, goal-setting and behaviour change tools, monthly SMS messages, and two coaching sessions (randomised to video or phone) prior to pregnancy. Results: Overall n=527 expressed interest in participating. Of these, n=33 did not meet inclusion criteria, n=8 were not contactable for eligibility screening, and n=177 failed to engage after the screening, leaving n=309 who were enrolled in OptimalMe and randomised to intervention delivery method. Engagement with coaching sessions dropped by 25% for session two, with no difference between intervention groups. Women had a mean (SD) age of 31.7 (4.3) years and, at baseline, a self-reported mean BMI of 25.7 (6.1) kg/m², with 55.8% (n=172) of a healthy BMI. Behaviour was sub-optimal with infrequent self-weighing (38.1%), alcohol consumption prevalent (57.1%), sub-optimal pre-pregnancy supplementation (61.5%), and incomplete medical screening. Post-intervention 73.2% of women reported engagement with a GP for preconception care and improved lifestyle behaviour (85.5%), since starting OptimalMe. Direct pre-and-post comparison of individual participant data showed that of 322 points of potential change (up-to-date cervical screening, elimination of high-risk behaviours [alcohol, drugs, smoking], uptake of preconception supplements and improved weighing habits) 158 (49.1%) points of change were achieved. Health coaching sessions were found to improve accountability and confidence, yet further personalisation and support were desired. Engagement with video and phone sessions was comparable, having similar impacts on behaviour change, and both methods were well accepted and increased women's accountability. Conclusion: A low-intensity digital health and lifestyle program with embedded health coaching can improve the uptake of preconception care and lead to self-reported behaviour change. This is the first program of its kind to reach an otherwise healthy population of women planning a pregnancy. Women who were otherwise healthy showed divergence from preconception health and lifestyle objectives and benefited from the intervention. OptimalMe shows promising results for population-based behaviour change interventions that can improve preconception lifestyle habits and increase engagement with clinical health care for pregnancy preparation.

Keywords: preconception, pregnancy, preventative health, weight gain prevention, self-management, behaviour change, digital health, telehealth, intervention, women's health

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Authors: Piotr Romaniuk, Krzysztof Kaczmarek, Adam Szromek

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Background: A number of approaches to assess the performance of health system have been proposed so far. Nonetheless, they lack a consensus regarding the key components of assessment procedure and criteria of evaluation. The WHO and OECD have developed methods of assessing health system to counteract the underlying issues, but they are not free of controversies and did not manage to produce a commonly accepted consensus. The aim of the study: On the basis of WHO and OECD approaches we decided to develop own methodology to assess the performance of health systems in Central and Eastern European countries. We have applied the method to compare the effects of health systems reforms in 20 countries of the region, in order to evaluate the dynamic of changes in terms of health system outcomes.Methods: Data was collected from a 25-year time period after the fall of communism, subsetted into different post-reform stages. Datasets collected from individual countries underwent one-, two- or multi-dimensional statistical analyses, and the Synthetic Measure of health system Outcomes (SMO) was calculated, on the basis of the method of zeroed unitarization. A map of dynamics of changes over time across the region was constructed. Results: When making a comparative analysis of the tested group in terms of the average SMO value throughout the analyzed period, we noticed some differences, although the gaps between individual countries were small. The countries with the highest SMO were the Czech Republic, Estonia, Poland, Hungary and Slovenia, while the lowest was in Ukraine, Russia, Moldova, Georgia, Albania, and Armenia. Countries differ in terms of the range of SMO value changes throughout the analyzed period. The dynamics of change is high in the case of Estonia and Latvia, moderate in the case of Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Croatia, Russia and Moldova, and small when it comes to Belarus, Ukraine, Macedonia, Lithuania, and Georgia. This information reveals fluctuation dynamics of the measured value in time, yet it does not necessarily mean that in such a dynamic range an improvement appears in a given country. In reality, some of the countries moved from on the scale with different effects. Albania decreased the level of health system outcomes while Armenia and Georgia made progress, but lost distance to leaders in the region. On the other hand, Latvia and Estonia showed the most dynamic progress in improving the outcomes. Conclusions: Countries that have decided to implement comprehensive health reform have achieved a positive result in terms of further improvements in health system efficiency levels. Besides, a higher level of efficiency during the initial transition period generally positively determined the subsequent value of the efficiency index value, but not the dynamics of change. The paths of health system outcomes improvement are highly diverse between different countries. The instrument we propose constitutes a useful tool to evaluate the effectiveness of reform processes in post-communist countries, but more studies are needed to identify factors that may determine results obtained by individual countries, as well as to eliminate the limitations of methodology we applied.

Keywords: health system outcomes, health reforms, health system assessment, health system evaluation

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Authors: Nabila Farhin, Israt Jahan

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Despite the feminisation of the global health force, women mostly engage in nursing, midwifery and community health workers (HWs), and the posts like surgeons, doctors, and specialists are generally male-dominated. It is also prominent in Bangladesh, where female HWs witness systematic workplace inequalities, discrimination, and underpayment. The Covid-19 pandemic put unsurmountable pressure on HWs as they had to serve in high-risk workplaces as frontliners. The already disadvantaged female HWs shouldered the same burden, were overworked without adequate occupational health and safety measures (OSH) and risked their lives. Acknowledging their vulnerable workplace conditions, the World Health Organization (WHO) and International Labour Organization (ILO) circulated a few specialised guidelines amid the peril. Bangladesh tried to adhere to international guidelines while formulating pandemic management strategies. In reality, the already weak and understaffed health sector collapsed with the patient influx and many HWs got infected and died in the line of duty, exposing the high-risk nature of the work. Unfortunately, the gender-segregated data of infected HWs are absent. This qualitative research investigates whether the existing laws of Bangladesh are adequate in protecting female HWs as frontliners in high-risk workplaces during the Covid-19 pandemic. The paper first examines international labour laws safeguarding female frontline HWs. It also analyses the specialised Covid-19 pandemic guidelines protecting their interests. Finally, the research investigates the compliance of Bangladesh as per international legal guidance during the pandemic. In doing so, it explores the domestic laws, professional guidelines for HWs and pandemic response strategies. The paper critically examines the primary sources like international and national statutes, rules, regulations and guidelines. Secondary sources like authoritative journal articles, books and newspaper reports are contextually analysed in line with the objective of the paper. The definition of HW is ambiguous in the labour laws of Bangladesh. It leads to confusion regarding the extent of legal protection rendered to female HWs at private hospitals in high-risk situations. The labour laws are not applicable in Public hospitals, as the employees follow the public service rules. Unfortunately, the country has no specialised law to protect HWs in high-risk workplaces, and the professional guidelines for HWs also remain inadequate in this regard. Even though the pandemic management strategies highlight some protective measures in high-risk situations, they only deal with HWs who are pregnant or have underlying health issues. No specialised protective guidelines can be found for female HWs as frontliners. Therefore, the laws are insufficient and failed to render adequate legal protection to female frontline HWs during the pandemic. The country also lacks comprehensive health legislation and uniform institutional and professional guidelines, preventing them from accessing grievance mechanisms. Hence, the female HWs felt victimised while duty-bound to serve in high-risk workplaces without adequate safeguards. Bangladesh should clarify the definition of HWs and standardise the service rules for providing medical care in high-risk workplaces. The research also recommends adequate health legislation and specialised legal protection to safeguard female HWs in future emergencies.

Keywords: female health workers (HWs), high-risk workplaces, Covid-19 pandemic, Bangladesh

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Authors: Etienne Herrick

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As an economically and ecologically feasible method for farmers to introduce greater diversity into their crop rotations, cover cropping presents a valuable opportunity for improving the sustainability of food production. Planted in-between cash crop growing seasons, cover crops serve to enhance agroecosystem functioning, rather than being destined for sale or consumption. In fact, cover crops may hold the capacity to deliver multiple ecosystem functions or services simultaneously (multifunctionality). Building upon this line of research will not only benefit society at present, but also support its continued survival through its potential for restoring depleted soils and reducing the need for energy-intensive and harmful external inputs like fertilizers and pesticides. This study utilizes a trait-based approach to explore the influence of inter- and intra-specific interactions in summer cover crop mixtures and monocultures on functional trait expression and ecosystem services. Functional traits that enhance ecosystem services related to agricultural production include height, specific leaf area (SLA), root, shoot ratio, leaf C and N concentrations, and flowering phenology. Ecosystem services include biomass production, weed suppression, reduced N leaching, N recycling, and support of pollinators. Employing a trait-based approach may allow for the elucidation of mechanistic links between plant structure and resulting ecosystem service delivery. While relationships between some functional traits and the delivery of particular ecosystem services may be readily apparent through existing ecological knowledge (e.g. height positively correlating with weed suppression), this study will begin to quantify those relationships so as to gain further understanding of whether and how measurable variation in functional trait expression across cover crop mixtures and monocultures can serve as a reliable predictor of variation in the types and abundances of ecosystem services delivered. Six cover crop species, including legume, grass, and broadleaf functional types, were selected for growth in six mixtures and their component monocultures based upon the principle of trait complementarity. The tricultures (three-way mixtures) are comprised of a legume, grass, and broadleaf species, and include cowpea/sudex/buckwheat, sunnhemp/sudex/buckwheat, and chickling vetch/oat/buckwheat combinations; the dicultures contain the same legume and grass combinations as above, without the buckwheat broadleaf. By combining species with expectedly complimentary traits (for example, legumes are N suppliers and grasses are N acquirers, creating a nutrient cycling loop) the cover crop mixtures may elicit a broader range of ecosystem services than that provided by a monoculture, though trade-offs could exist. Collecting functional trait data will enable the investigation of the types of interactions driving these ecosystem service outcomes. It also allows for generalizability across a broader range of species than just those selected for this study, which may aid in informing further research efforts exploring species and ecosystem functioning, as well as on-farm management decisions.

Keywords: agroecology, cover crops, functional traits, multifunctionality, trait complementarity

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Authors: Ado Ismail Sabo

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Statement of the Problem: The global trend in tertiary education institutions today is changing and moving towards engagement, promotion and marketing. The reason is to upscale reputation and impact positioning. More prominently, existing rivalry today seeks to draw-in the best and brightest students. A university or college is no longer just an institution of higher learning, but one adapting additional business nomenclature. Therefore, huge financial resources are invested by educational institutions to polish their image and improve their global and national ranking. In Nigeria, which boasts of a vast population of over 180 million people, some of whose patronage can bolster its education sector; standard of education continues to decline. Today, some Nigerian tertiary education institutions are shadows of their pasts, in terms of academic excellence. Quality has been relinquished because of the unquenchable quest by government officials, some civil servants, school heads and educators to amass wealth. It is very difficult to gain student satisfaction and their loyalty. Some of the student’s loyalties factor towards public higher educational institutions might be confusing. It is difficult to understand the extent to which students are satisfy on many needs. Some students might feel satisfy with the academic lecturers only, whereas others may want everything, and others will never satisfy. Due to these problems, this research aims to uncover the crucial factors influencing student loyalty and to examine if students’ satisfaction might impact mediate the relationship between service quality, organisational image and students’ loyalty towards public higher education institutions in Kano State, Nigeria. The significance of the current study is underscored by the paucity of similar research in the subject area and public tertiary education in a developing country like Nigeria as shown in existing literature. Methodology: The current study was undertaken by quantitative research methodology. Sample of 600 valid responses were obtained within the study population comprising six selected public higher education institutions in Kano State, Nigeria. These include: North West University Kano, Bayero University Kano, School of Management Studies Kano, School of Technology Kano, Sa’adatu Rimi College Kano and Federal College of Education (FCE) Kano. Four main hypotheses were formulated and tested using structural equation modeling techniques with Analysis of Moment Structure (AMOS Version 22.0). Results: Analysis of the data provided support for the main issue of this study, and the following findings are established: “Student Satisfaction mediates the relationship between Service Quality and Student Loyalty”, “Student Satisfaction mediates the relationship between Organizational Image and Student Loyalty” respectively. The findings of this study contributed to the theoretical implication which proposed a structural model that examined the relationships among overall Organizational image, service quality, student satisfaction and student loyalty. Conclusion: In addition, the findings offered a better insight to the managerial (higher institution of learning service providers) by focusing on portraying the image of service quality with student satisfaction in improving the quality of student loyalty.

Keywords: student loyalty, service quality, student satisfaction, organizational image

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Authors: Huijing Wen, Daibao Guo

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Writing is thought to be the most complex facet of language arts. Assessing writing is difficult and subjective, and there are few scientifically validated assessments exist. Research has proposed evaluating writing using a multidimensional approach, including both qualitative and quantitative measures of handwriting, spelling and prose. Given that narrative writing has historically been a staple of literacy instruction in primary grades and is one of the three major genres Common Core State Standards required students to acquire starting in kindergarten, it is essential for teachers to understand how to measure beginning writers writing development and sources of writing difficulties through narrative writing. Guided by the theoretical models of early written expression and using empirical data, this study examines ways teachers can enact a comprehensive approach to understanding beginning writer’s narrative writing through three writing rubrics developed for a Curriculum-based Measurement (CBM). The goal is to help classroom teachers structure a framework for assessing early writing in primary classrooms. Participants in this study included 380 first-grade students from 50 classrooms in 13 schools in three school districts in a Mid-Atlantic state. Three writing tests were used to assess first graders’ writing skills in relation to both transcription (i.e., handwriting fluency and spelling tests) and translational skills (i.e., a narrative prompt). First graders were asked to respond to a narrative prompt in 20 minutes. Grounded in theoretical models of earlier expression and empirical evidence of key contributors to early writing, all written samples to the narrative prompt were coded three ways for different dimensions of writing: length, quality, and genre elements. To measure the quality of the narrative writing, a traditional holistic rating rubric was developed by the researchers based on the CCSS and the general traits of good writing. Students' genre knowledge was measured by using a separate analytic rubric for narrative writing. Findings showed that first-graders had emerging and limited transcriptional and translational skills with a nascent knowledge of genre conventions. The findings of the study provided support for the Not-So-Simple View of Writing in that fluent written expression, measured by length and other important linguistic resources measured by the overall quality and genre knowledge rubrics, are fundamental in early writing development. Our study echoed previous research findings on children's narrative development. The study has practical classroom application as it informs writing instruction and assessment. It offered practical guidelines for classroom instruction by providing teachers with a better understanding of first graders' narrative writing skills and knowledge of genre conventions. Understanding students’ narrative writing provides teachers with more insights into specific strategies students might use during writing and their understanding of good narrative writing. Additionally, it is important for teachers to differentiate writing instruction given the individual differences shown by our multiple writing measures. Overall, the study shed light on beginning writers’ narrative writing, indicating the complexity of early writing development.

Keywords: writing assessment, early writing, beginning writers, transcriptional skills, translational skills, primary grades, simple view of writing, writing rubrics, curriculum-based measurement

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Authors: Prajna Paramita Naik, Sujit Kumar Bhutia

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Background: Regardless of the development multimodal treatment strategies, oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is often associated with a high rate of recurrence, metastasis and chemo- and radio- resistance. The present study inspected the relevance of CD44, ABCB1 and ADAM17 expression as a putative stem cell compartment in oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) and deciphered the role of autophagy in regulating the expression of aforementioned proteins, stemness and chemoresistance. Methods: A retrospective analysis of CD44, ABCB1 and ADAM17 expression with respect to the various clinicopathological factors of sixty OSCC patients were determined via immunohistochemistry. The correlation among CD44, ABCB1 and ADAM17 expression was established. Sphere formation assay, flow cytometry and fluorescence microscopy were conducted to elucidate the stemness and chemoresistance nature of established cisplatin-resistant oral cancer cells (FaDu). The pattern of expression of CD44, ABCB1 and ADAM17 in parental (FaDu-P) and resistant FaDu cells (FaDu-CDDP-R) were investigated through fluorescence microscopy. Western blot analysis of autophagy marker proteins was performed to compare the status of autophagy in parental and resistant FaDu cell. To investigate the role of autophagy in chemoresistance and stemness, sphere formation assay, immunofluorescence and Western blot analysis was performed post transfection with siATG14 and the level of expression of autophagic proteins, mitochondrial protein and stemness-associated proteins were analyzed. The statistical analysis was performed by GraphPad Prism 4.0 software. p-value was defined as follows: not significant (n.s.): p > 0.05;*: p ≤ 0.05; **: p ≤ 0.01; ***: p ≤ 0.001; ****: p ≤ 0.0001 were considered statistically significant. Results: In OSCC, high CD44, ABCB1 and ADAM17 expression were significantly correlated with higher tumor grades and poor differentiation. However, the expression of these proteins was not related to the age and sex of OSCC patients. Moreover, the expression of CD44, ABCB1 and ADAM17 were positively correlated with each other. In vitro and OSCC tissue double labeling experiment data showed that CD44+ cells were highly associated with ABCB1 and ADAM17 expression. Further, FaDu-CDDP-R cells showed higher sphere forming capacity along with increased fraction of the CD44+ population and β-catenin expression FaDu-CDDP-R cells also showed accelerated expression of CD44, ABCB1 and ADAM17. A comparatively higher autophagic flux was observed in FaDu-CDDP-R against FaDu-P cells. The expression of mitochondrial proteins was noticeably reduced in resistant cells as compared to parental cells indicating the occurrence of autophagy-mediated mitochondrial degradation in oral cancer. Moreover, inhibition of autophagy was coupled with the decreased formation of orospheres suggesting autophagy-mediated stemness in oral cancer. Blockade of autophagy was also found to induce the restoration of mitochondrial proteins in FaDu-CDDP-R cells indicating the involvement of mitophagy in chemoresistance. Furthermore, a reduced expression of CD44, ABCB1 and ADAM17 was also observed in ATG14 deficient cells FaDu-P and FaDu-CDDP-R cells. Conclusion: The CD44+ ⁄ABCB1+ ⁄ADAM17+ expression in OSCC might be associated with chemoresistance and a putative CSC compartment. Further, the present study highlights the contribution of mitophagy in chemoresistance and confirms the potential involvement of autophagic regulation in acquisition of stem-like characteristics in OSCC.

Keywords: ABCB1, ADAM17, autophagy, CD44, chemoresistance, mitophagy, OSCC, stemness

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Authors: John Zanetich

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Designing an educational activity that encourages inquiry and collaboration is key to engaging students in meaningful learning. Educational Information and Communications Technology (EICT) plays an important role in facilitating cooperative and collaborative learning in the classroom. The EICT also facilitates students’ learning and development of the critical thinking skills needed to solve real world problems. Projects and activities based on constructivism encourage students to embrace complexity as well as find relevance and joy in their learning. It also enhances the students’ capacity for creative and responsible real-world problem solving. Classroom activities based on constructivism offer students an opportunity to develop the higher–order-thinking skills of defining problems and identifying solutions. Participating in a classroom project is an activity for both acquiring experiential knowledge and applying new knowledge to practical situations. It also provides an opportunity for students to integrate new knowledge into a skill set using reflection. Classroom projects can be developed around a variety of learning objects including social media, knowledge management and learning communities. The construction of meaning through project-based learning is an approach that encourages interaction and problem-solving activities. Projects require active participation, collaboration and interaction to reach the agreed upon outcomes. Projects also serve to externalize the invisible cognitive and social processes taking place in the activity itself and in the student experience. This paper describes a classroom project designed to elicit interactions by helping students to unfreeze existing knowledge, to create new learning experiences, and then refreeze the new knowledge. Since constructivists believe that students construct their own meaning through active engagement and participation as well as interactions with others. knowledge management can be used to guide the exchange of both tacit and explicit knowledge in interpersonal interactions between students and guide the construction of meaning. This paper uses an action research approach to the development of a classroom project and describes the use of technology, social media and the active use of tacit knowledge in the college classroom. In this project, a closed group Facebook page becomes the virtual classroom where interaction is captured and measured using engagement analytics. In the virtual learning community, the principles of knowledge management are used to identify the process and components of the infrastructure of the learning process. The project identifies class member interests and measures student engagement in a learning community by analyzing regular posting on the Facebook page. These posts are used to foster and encourage interactions, reflect a student’s interest and serve as reaction points from which viewers of the post convert the explicit information in the post to implicit knowledge. The data was collected over an academic year and was provided, in part, by the Google analytic reports on Facebook and self-reports of posts by members. The results support the use of active tacit knowledge activities, knowledge management and social media to enhance the student learning experience and help create the knowledge that will be used by students to construct meaning.

Keywords: constructivism, knowledge management, tacit knowledge, social media

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Authors: Manuel Alejandro Taborda Ceballos, Martin Sommerfeld

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Transport phenomena and dispersion of non-spherical particle in turbulent flows are found everywhere in industrial application and processes. Powder handling, pollution control, pneumatic transport, particle separation are just some examples where the particle encountered are not only spherical. These types of multiphase flows are wall bounded and mostly highly turbulent. The particles found in these processes are rarely spherical but may have various shapes (e.g., fibers, and rods). Although research related to the behavior of regular non-spherical particles in turbulent flows has been carried out for many years, it is still necessary to refine models, especially near walls where the interaction fiber-wall changes completely its behavior. Imaging-based experimental studies on dispersed particle-laden flows have been applied for many decades for a detailed experimental analysis. These techniques have the advantages that they provide field information in two or three dimensions, but have a lower temporal resolution compared to point-wise techniques such as PDA (phase-Doppler anemometry) and derivations therefrom. The applied imaging techniques in dispersed two-phase flows are extensions from classical PIV (particle image velocimetry) and PTV (particle tracking velocimetry) and the main emphasis was simultaneous measurement of the velocity fields of both phases. In a similar way, such data should also provide adequate information for validating the proposed models. Available experimental studies on the behavior of non-spherical particles are uncommon and mostly based on planar light-sheet measurements. Especially for elongated non-spherical particles, however, three-dimensional measurements are needed to fully describe their motion and to provide sufficient information for validation of numerical computations. For further providing detailed experimental results allowing a validation of numerical calculations of non-spherical particle dispersion in turbulent flows, a water channel test facility was built around a horizontal closed water channel. Into this horizontal main flow, a small cross-jet laden with fiber-like particles was injected, which was also solely driven by gravity. The dispersion of the fibers was measured by applying imaging techniques based on a LED array for backlighting and high-speed cameras. For obtaining the fluid velocity fields, almost neutrally buoyant tracer was used. The discrimination between tracer and fibers was done based on image size which was also the basis to determine fiber orientation with respect to the inertial coordinate system. The synchronous measurement of fluid velocity and fiber properties also allow the collection of statistics of fiber orientation, velocity fields of tracer and fibers, the angular velocity of the fibers and the orientation between fiber and instantaneous relative velocity. Consequently, an experimental study the behavior of elongated non-spherical particles in wall bounded turbulent flows was achieved. The development of a comprehensive analysis was succeeded, especially near the wall region, where exists hydrodynamic wall interaction effects (e.g., collision or lubrication) and abrupt changes of particle rotational velocity. This allowed us to predict numerically afterwards the behavior of non-spherical particles within the frame of the Euler/Lagrange approach, where the particles are therein treated as “point-particles”.

Keywords: crossflow, non-spherical particles, particle tracking velocimetry, PIV

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Authors: Alex B. Cusick

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The objective of this study is to improve upon the current ²³⁸PuO₂ fuel technology for space and defense applications. Modern RTGs (radioisotope thermoelectric generators) utilize the heat generated from the radioactive decay of ²³⁸Pu to create heat and electricity for long term and remote missions. Application of RTG technology is limited by the scarcity and expense of producing the isotope, as well as the power output which is limited to only a few hundred watts. The scarcity and expense make the efficient use of ²³⁸Pu absolutely necessary. By utilizing the decay of ²³⁸Pu, not only to produce heat directly but to also indirectly induce fission in ²³⁹Pu (which is already present within currently used fuel), it is possible to see large increases in temperature which allows for a more efficient conversion to electricity and a higher power-to-weight ratio. This concept can reduce the quantity of ²³⁸Pu necessary for these missions, potentially saving millions on investment, while yielding higher power output. Current work investigating radioisotope power systems have focused on improving efficiency of the thermoelectric components and replacing systems which produce heat by virtue of natural decay with fission reactors. The technical feasibility of utilizing (α,n) reactions to induce fission within current radioisotopic fuels has not been investigated in any appreciable detail, and our study aims to thoroughly investigate the performance of many such designs, develop those with highest capabilities, and facilitate experimental testing of these designs. In order to determine the specific design parameters that maximize power output and the efficient use of ²³⁸Pu for future RTG units, MCNP6 simulations have been used to characterize the effects of modifying fuel composition, geometry, and porosity, as well as introducing neutron moderating, reflecting, and shielding materials to the system. Although this project is currently in the preliminary stages, the final deliverables will include sophisticated designs and simulation models that define all characteristics of multiple novel RTG fuels, detailed enough to allow immediate fabrication and testing. Preliminary work has consisted of developing a benchmark model to accurately represent the ²³⁸PuO₂ pellets currently in use by NASA; this model utilizes the alpha transport capabilities of MCNP6 and agrees well with experimental data. In addition, several models have been developed by varying specific parameters to investigate their effect on (α,n) and (n,fi ssion) reaction rates. Current practices in fuel processing are to exchange out the small portion of naturally occurring ¹⁸O and ¹⁷O to limit (α,n) reactions and avoid unnecessary neutron production. However, we have shown that enriching the oxide in ¹⁸O introduces a sufficient (α,n) reaction rate to support significant fission rates. For example, subcritical fission rates above 10⁸ f/cm³-s are easily achievable in cylindrical ²³⁸PuO₂ fuel pellets with a ¹⁸O enrichment of 100%, given an increase in size and a ⁹Be clad. Many viable designs exist and our intent is to discuss current results and future endeavors on this project.

Keywords: radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTG), Pu-238, subcritical reactors, (alpha, n) reactions

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Authors: Yi H. Wong, Li L. Chan, Chee O. Leong, Stephen Ambu, Joon W. Mak, Priyadashi S. Sahu

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Background: Acanthamoeba is a free-living opportunistic protist which is ubiquitously distributed in the environment. Virulent Acanthamoeba can cause fatal encephalitis in immunocompromised patients and potential blinding keratitis in immunocompetent contact lens wearers. Approximately 24 species have been identified but only the A. castellanii, A. polyphaga and A. culbertsoni are commonly associated with human infections. Until to date, the precise molecular basis for Acanthamoeba pathogenesis remains unclear. Previous studies reported that Acanthamoeba virulence can be diminished through prolonged axenic culture but revived through serial mouse passages. As no clear explanation on this reversible pathogenesis is established, hereby, we postulate that the epigenetic regulators, DNA-methyltransferases (DNMT) and histone-deacetylases (HDAC), could possibly be involved in granting the virulence plasticity of Acanthamoeba spp. Methods: Four rounds of mouse passages were conducted to revive the virulence potential of the virulence-attenuated Acanthamoeba castellanii strain (ATCC 50492). Briefly, each mouse (n=6/group) was inoculated intraperitoneally with Acanthamoebae cells (2x 105 trophozoites/mouse) and incubated for 2 months. Acanthamoebae cells were isolated from infected mouse organs by culture method and subjected to subsequent mouse passage. In vitro cytopathic, encystment and gelatinolytic assays were conducted to evaluate the virulence characteristics of Acanthamoebae isolates for each passage. PCR primers which targeted on the 2 members (DNMT1 and DNMT2) and 5 members (HDAC1 to 5) of the DNMT and HDAC gene families respectively were custom designed. Quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) was performed to detect and quantify the relative expression of the two gene families in each Acanthamoeba isolates. Beta-tubulin of A. castellanii (Genbank accession no: XP_004353728) was included as housekeeping gene for data normalisation. PCR mixtures were also analyzed by electrophoresis for amplicons detection. All statistical analyses were performed using the paired one-tailed Student’s t test. Results: Our pathogenicity tests showed that the virulence-reactivated Acanthamoeba had a higher degree of cytopathic effect on vero cells, a better resistance to encystment challenge and a higher gelatinolytic activity which was catalysed by serine protease. qPCR assay showed that DNMT1 expression was significantly higher in the virulence-reactivated compared to the virulence-attenuated Acanthamoeba strain (p ≤ 0.01). The specificity of primers which targeted on DNMT1 was confirmed by sequence analysis of PCR amplicons, which showed a 97% similarity to the published DNA-methyltransferase gene of A. castellanii (GenBank accession no: XM_004332804.1). Out of the five primer pairs which targeted on the HDAC family genes, only HDAC4 expression was significantly difference between the two variant strains. In contrast to DNMT1, HDAC4 expression was much higher in the virulence-attenuated Acanthamoeba strain. Conclusion: Our mouse passages had successfully restored the virulence of the attenuated strain. Our findings suggested that DNA-methyltransferase (DNMT1) and histone deacetylase (HDAC4) expressions are associated with virulence potential of Acanthamoeba spp.

Keywords: acanthamoeba, DNA-methyltransferase, histone deacetylase, virulence-associated proteins

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Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

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Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

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Authors: Inna Kornienko, Svetlana Guryeva, Anatoly Shekhter, Elena Petersen

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Transplantation is an effective treatment option for patients suffering from different end-stage diseases. However, it is plagued by a constant shortage of donor organs and the subsequent need of a lifelong immunosuppressive therapy for the patient. Currently some researchers look towards using of pig organs to replace human organs for transplantation since the matrix derived from porcine organs is a convenient substitute for the human matrix. As an initial step to create a new ex vivo tissue engineered model, optimized protocols have been created to obtain organ-specific acellular matrices and evaluated their potential as tissue engineered scaffolds for culture of normal cells and tumor cell lines. These protocols include decellularization by perfusion in a bioreactor system and immersion-agitation on an orbital shaker with use of various detergents (SDS, Triton X-100) and freezing. Complete decellularization – in terms of residual DNA amount – is an important predictor of probability of immune rejection of materials of natural origin. However, the signs of cellular material may still remain within the matrix even after harsh decellularization protocols. In this regard, the matrices obtained from tissues of low-immunogenic pigs with α3Galactosyl-tranferase gene knock out (GalT-KO) may be a promising alternative to native animal sources. The research included a study of induced effect of frozen and fresh fragments of GalT-KO skin on healing of full-thickness plane wounds in 80 rats. Commercially available wound dressings (Ksenoderm, Hyamatrix and Alloderm) as well as allogenic skin were used as a positive control and untreated wounds were analyzed as a negative control. The results were evaluated on the 4th day after grafting, which corresponds to the time of start of normal wound epithelization. It has been shown that a non-specific immune response in models treated with GalT-Ko pig skin was milder than in all the control groups. Research has been performed to measure technical skin characteristics: stiffness and elasticity properties, corneometry, tevametry, and cutometry. These metrics enabled the evaluation of hydratation level, corneous layer husking level, as well as skin elasticity and micro- and macro-landscape. These preliminary data may contribute to development of personalized transplantable organs from GalT-Ko pigs with significantly limited potential of immune rejection. By applying growth factors to a decellularized skin sample it is possible to achieve various regenerative effects based on the particular situation. In this particular research BMP2 and Heparin-binding EGF-like growth factor have been used. Ideally, a bioengineered organ must be biocompatible, non-immunogenic and support cell growth. Porcine organs are attractive for xenotransplantation if severe immunologic concerns can be bypassed. The results indicate that genetically modified pig tissues with knock-outed α3Galactosyl-tranferase gene may be used for production of low-immunogenic matrix suitable for transplantation.

Keywords: decellularization, low-immunogenic, matrix, scaffolds, transplants

Procedia PDF Downloads 275