Search results for: computational Physics
3 Times2D: A Time-Frequency Method for Time Series Forecasting
Authors: Reza Nematirad, Anil Pahwa, Balasubramaniam Natarajan
Abstract:
Time series data consist of successive data points collected over a period of time. Accurate prediction of future values is essential for informed decision-making in several real-world applications, including electricity load demand forecasting, lifetime estimation of industrial machinery, traffic planning, weather prediction, and the stock market. Due to their critical relevance and wide application, there has been considerable interest in time series forecasting in recent years. However, the proliferation of sensors and IoT devices, real-time monitoring systems, and high-frequency trading data introduce significant intricate temporal variations, rapid changes, noise, and non-linearities, making time series forecasting more challenging. Classical methods such as Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing aim to extract pre-defined temporal variations, such as trends and seasonality. While these methods are effective for capturing well-defined seasonal patterns and trends, they often struggle with more complex, non-linear patterns present in real-world time series data. In recent years, deep learning has made significant contributions to time series forecasting. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and their variants, such as Long short-term memory (LSTMs) and Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), have been widely adopted for modeling sequential data. However, they often suffer from the locality, making it difficult to capture local trends and rapid fluctuations. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), particularly Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCNs), leverage convolutional layers to capture temporal dependencies by applying convolutional filters along the temporal dimension. Despite their advantages, TCNs struggle with capturing relationships between distant time points due to the locality of one-dimensional convolution kernels. Transformers have revolutionized time series forecasting with their powerful attention mechanisms, effectively capturing long-term dependencies and relationships between distant time points. However, the attention mechanism may struggle to discern dependencies directly from scattered time points due to intricate temporal patterns. Lastly, Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs) have also been employed, with models like N-BEATS and LightTS demonstrating success. Despite this, MLPs often face high volatility and computational complexity challenges in long-horizon forecasting. To address intricate temporal variations in time series data, this study introduces Times2D, a novel framework that parallelly integrates 2D spectrogram and derivative heatmap techniques. The spectrogram focuses on the frequency domain, capturing periodicity, while the derivative patterns emphasize the time domain, highlighting sharp fluctuations and turning points. This 2D transformation enables the utilization of powerful computer vision techniques to capture various intricate temporal variations. To evaluate the performance of Times2D, extensive experiments were conducted on standard time series datasets and compared with various state-of-the-art algorithms, including DLinear (2023), TimesNet (2023), Non-stationary Transformer (2022), PatchTST (2023), N-HiTS (2023), Crossformer (2023), MICN (2023), LightTS (2022), FEDformer (2022), FiLM (2022), SCINet (2022a), Autoformer (2021), and Informer (2021) under the same modeling conditions. The initial results demonstrated that Times2D achieves consistent state-of-the-art performance in both short-term and long-term forecasting tasks. Furthermore, the generality of the Times2D framework allows it to be applied to various tasks such as time series imputation, clustering, classification, and anomaly detection, offering potential benefits in any domain that involves sequential data analysis.Keywords: derivative patterns, spectrogram, time series forecasting, times2D, 2D representation
Procedia PDF Downloads 342 Regenerative Agriculture Standing at the Intersection of Design, Mycology, and Soil Fertility
Authors: Andrew Gennett
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Designing for fungal development means embracing the symbiotic relationship between the living system and built environment. The potential of mycelium post-colonization is explored for the fabrication of advanced pure mycelium products, going beyond the conventional methods of aggregating materials. Fruiting induction imparts desired material properties such as enhanced environmental resistance. Production approach allows for simultaneous generation of multiple products while scaling up raw materials supply suitable for architectural applications. The following work explores the integration of fungal environmental perception with computational design of built fruiting chambers. Polyporales, are classified by their porous reproductive tissues supported by a wood-like context tissue covered by a hard waterproofing coat of hydrobpobins. Persisting for years in the wild, these species represent material properties that would be highly desired in moving beyond flat sheets of arial mycelium as with leather or bacon applications. Understanding the inherent environmental perception of fungi has become the basis for working with and inducing desired hyphal differentiation. Working within the native signal interpretation of a mycelium mass during fruiting induction provides the means to apply textures and color to the final finishing coat. A delicate interplay between meeting human-centered goals while designing around natural processes of living systems represents a blend of art and science. Architecturally, physical simulations inform model design for simple modular fruiting chambers that change as fungal growth progresses, while biological life science principles describe the internal computations occurring within the fungal hyphae. First, a form filling phase of growth is controlled by growth chamber environment. Second, an initiation phase of growth forms the final exterior finishing texture. Hyphal densification induces cellular cascades, in turn producing the classical hardened cuticle, UV protective molecule production, as well, as waterproofing finish. Upon fruiting process completion, the fully colonized spent substrate holds considerable value and is not considered waste. Instead, it becomes a valuable resource in the next cycle of production scale-up. However, the acquisition of new substrate resources poses a critical question, particularly as these resources become increasingly scarce. Pursuing a regenerative design paradigm from the environmental perspective, the usage of “agricultural waste” for architectural materials would prove a continuation of the destructive practices established by the previous industrial regime. For these residues from fields and forests serve a vital ecological role protecting the soil surface in combating erosion while reducing evaporation and fostering a biologically diverse food web. Instead, urban centers have been identified as abundant sources of new substrate material. Diverting the waste from secondary locations such as food processing centers, papers mills, and recycling facilities not only reduces landfill burden but leverages the latent value of these waste steams as precious resources for mycelium cultivation. In conclusion, working with living systems through innovative built environments for fungal development, provides the needed gain of function and resilience of mycelium products. The next generation of sustainable fungal products will go beyond the current binding process, with a focus upon reducing landfill burden from urban centers. In final considerations, biophilic material builds to an ecologically regenerative recycling production cycle.Keywords: regenerative agriculture, mycelium fabrication, growth chamber design, sustainable resource acquisition, fungal morphogenesis, soil fertility
Procedia PDF Downloads 541 Numerical Simulation of Von Karman Swirling Bioconvection Nanofluid Flow from a Deformable Rotating Disk
Authors: Ali Kadir, S. R. Mishra, M. Shamshuddin, O. Anwar Beg
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Motivation- Rotating disk bio-reactors are fundamental to numerous medical/biochemical engineering processes including oxygen transfer, chromatography, purification and swirl-assisted pumping. The modern upsurge in biologically-enhanced engineering devices has embraced new phenomena including bioconvection of micro-organisms (photo-tactic, oxy-tactic, gyrotactic etc). The proven thermal performance superiority of nanofluids i.e. base fluids doped with engineered nanoparticles has also stimulated immense implementation in biomedical designs. Motivated by these emerging applications, we present a numerical thermofluid dynamic simulation of the transport phenomena in bioconvection nanofluid rotating disk bioreactor flow. Methodology- We study analytically and computationally the time-dependent three-dimensional viscous gyrotactic bioconvection in swirling nanofluid flow from a rotating disk configuration. The disk is also deformable i.e. able to extend (stretch) in the radial direction. Stefan blowing is included. The Buongiorno dilute nanofluid model is adopted wherein Brownian motion and thermophoresis are the dominant nanoscale effects. The primitive conservation equations for mass, radial, tangential and axial momentum, heat (energy), nanoparticle concentration and micro-organism density function are formulated in a cylindrical polar coordinate system with appropriate wall and free stream boundary conditions. A mass convective condition is also incorporated at the disk surface. Forced convection is considered i.e. buoyancy forces are neglected. This highly nonlinear, strongly coupled system of unsteady partial differential equations is normalized with the classical Von Karman and other transformations to render the boundary value problem (BVP) into an ordinary differential system which is solved with the efficient Adomian decomposition method (ADM). Validation with earlier Runge-Kutta shooting computations in the literature is also conducted. Extensive computations are presented (with the aid of MATLAB symbolic software) for radial and circumferential velocity components, temperature, nanoparticle concentration, micro-organism density number and gradients of these functions at the disk surface (radial local skin friction, local circumferential skin friction, Local Nusselt number, Local Sherwood number, motile microorganism mass transfer rate). Main Findings- Increasing radial stretching parameter decreases radial velocity and radial skin friction, reduces azimuthal velocity and skin friction, decreases local Nusselt number and motile micro-organism mass wall flux whereas it increases nano-particle local Sherwood number. Disk deceleration accelerates the radial flow, damps the azimuthal flow, decreases temperatures and thermal boundary layer thickness, depletes the nano-particle concentration magnitudes (and associated nano-particle species boundary layer thickness) and furthermore decreases the micro-organism density number and gyrotactic micro-organism species boundary layer thickness. Increasing Stefan blowing accelerates the radial flow and azimuthal (circumferential flow), elevates temperatures of the nanofluid, boosts nano-particle concentration (volume fraction) and gyrotactic micro-organism density number magnitudes whereas suction generates the reverse effects. Increasing suction effect reduces radial skin friction and azimuthal skin friction, local Nusselt number, and motile micro-organism wall mass flux whereas it enhances the nano-particle species local Sherwood number. Conclusions - Important transport characteristics are identified of relevance to real bioreactor nanotechnological systems not discussed in previous works. ADM is shown to achieve very rapid convergence and highly accurate solutions and shows excellent promise in simulating swirling multi-physical nano-bioconvection fluid dynamics problems. Furthermore, it provides an excellent complement to more general commercial computational fluid dynamics simulations.Keywords: bio-nanofluids, rotating disk bioreactors, Von Karman swirling flow, numerical solutions
Procedia PDF Downloads 151